nep-agr 2022-03-07 papers

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By:	Domptail, Stephanie; Hirsch, Jennifer; Ume, Chukwuma
Abstract:	Current agriculture and food systems worldwide are facing major sustainability challenges, which jeopardize the ability of future generations to live a good life: soil fertility and biodiversity loss, climate change, malnutrition and inequalities. These problems are, in part, related to how agricultural and food systems have developed. The IPES 2016 report on food systems calls for a shift from low input traditional and industrial agricultural systems to diversified agroecological systems. We claim that this shift requires more than a change in practice. Rather it implies a redefinition of the conception of agricultural and food systems and their evaluation. The talk discusses those facets of agricultural and food systems which can gain visibility though a reading of agroecology from the ecological and feminist economics perspective. For instance, the analysis of the worldview of agroecological farmers in Germany reveals the role of reproductive and egalitarian principles and values in designing the farming systems and of community-supported agricultural schemes. Politically, these principles can be interpreted a struggle to maintain sovereignty and act upon own values. We finally reflect on what it implies for food security that agroecological systems nurture their reproductive capacity. The rise of agroecology raises questions about the values that shape agricultural and food systems and engenders a “new” target: the reproduction capacity of our societies.
Keywords:	Food Consumption / Nutrition / Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Environmental Economics and Policy
Date:	2021–11–18
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317071&r=

By:	Gatto, Marcel; Balie, Jean; Hareau, Guy
Abstract:	Agricultural production needs to increase to feed a rapidly growing population, arable land is shrinking due to urbanization and the adverse effects of climate change. This calls for an intensification of agricultural production which cannot be achieved in a sustainable way with conventional agricultural practices. Here, we are discussing the future of sustainable intensification of rice-potato agri-food systems in Asia. This document is part of a series of short papers on “The Future of X”, produced as part of foresight-related research supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM).
Date:	2021–12–21
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3ba5x&r=

By:	Tran, Nhuong; Rodriguez, U-Primo; Chan, Chin Yee; Aung, Yee Mon; Chu, Long; , Abu Hayat Md.Saiful Islam; Barman, Benoy Kumar; Phillips, Michael John
Abstract:	Bangladesh has made significant progress in social and economic development in recent years, but micronutrient deficiencies and poor dietary diversity remain a significant challenge. This paper developed eight scenarios to explore fish supply-demand futures in Bangladesh using the AsiaFish model, with special emphasis on the role of fish in micronutrient supply to address the nation’s malnutrition and nutrition security challenges. A business-as-usual (BAU) scenario followed historical trends for exogenous variables used in the model. The seven alternative scenarios explored were: the implications of increase productivity of farmed tilapia, pangasius and rohu carp (AS1); productivity changes in hilsa production (AS2); improvements in the quality of feeds (AS3); reduction in the price of plant-based feeds (AS4); disease outbreak in farmed shrimps and prawns (AS5); and climate change impact (AS6) and stagnant capture fisheries (AS7). The BAU scenario indicates that aquaculture growth will be a prominent contribution to increasing total fish supply and demand and fish exports to 2040. Apart from the scenarios that are favourable to aquaculture sector development, other alternative scenarios highlighted the lower growth rate of capture fisheries and aquaculture compared to BAU, resulting in declining in per capita fish consumption, fish exports and nutrient supply from fish as a consequence. Increased availability of aquaculture fish can slightly compensate for the lower growth of capture fisheries in term of their nutrition quality and dietary diversity, particularly for poor consumers. Policies towards sustaining fisheries and a nutrition-sensitive approach to aquaculture is recommended as both capture fisheries and aquaculture are essential for sustaining healthy and nutritious diets in Bangladesh.
Date:	2022–01–12
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8bysc&r=

By:	Valera, Harold Glenn; Balie, Jean; Pede, Valerien
Abstract:	The current literature on predicting long-term food prices includes three types of projections based on declining, steady, and rising prices. However, these projections have mainly focused on key drivers such as population, income, agricultural productivity, and climate change. In addition, these projections have not previously connected to agricultural support policies. This note aims to fill this gap in the literature by focusing on cereal price outlook and providing comments on further critical drivers of change that merit greater attention in the future.
Date:	2021–12–20
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mrfu6&r=

By:	Michels, Marius; Mußhoff, Oliver
Abstract:	While the adoption of smartphones and apps are already investigated, no study has yet focused on factors affecting the timing of smartphone adoption in agriculture. Understanding the timing of a technology adoption and identifying characteristics of early and late adopters is important to further anticipate and foster the diffusion process. The aim of this study is therefore to analyse the timing of smartphone adoption for agricultural purposes by applying a tobit regression model to a data set of 207 German farmers, which was collected in 2019. Results show that among other factors, farmers’ age, risk attitude and gender as well as farm size and farm location affect the timing of smartphone adoption for agricultural purposes. The results are of interest for several groups of interest like agricultural policy makers, agricultural extension services, providers and sellers of smartphones.
Keywords:	Farm Management, Research and Development / Technical Change / Emerging Technologies
Date:	2021–11–18
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317046&r=

By:	Spiegel, Alisa; Fournier Gabela, Julio G.; Heidecke, Claudia; Söder, Mareike; Freund, Florian; Gocht, Alexander; Banse, Martin
Abstract:	Many national climate policies are already using or planning to implement different carbon pricing schemes aiming to reach climate mitigation target efficiently. Inadequate international cooperation, however, can lead to emission leakage. To prevent this, several concepts of border carbon adjustment (BCA) have been developed for the energy sector. Despite the significant role of agriculture in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ongoing debates on agri-food carbon pricing, to date, there is no concrete BCA proposal for the agricultural sector. Our qualitative research aims to derive alternative agri-food BCA designs discussing on potential bottlenecks and suggesting solutions, while hypothesizing on potential effects of a BCA on GHG emission, trade balance, land use, and welfare. We conclude with outlining quantitative model-based research required to assess alternative agri-food BCA designs and to test the derived hypotheses.
Keywords:	Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade
Date:	2021–11–18
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317084&r=

By:	Lewis, Janet M; Reynolds, Matthew
Abstract:	As the most widely cultivated crop globally - providing 20% of all human calories and protein - there is an urgent need to increase wheat’s resilience to harsher climates [1]. The risk of simultaneous crop failures due to heat and/or drought in global “breadbaskets” has risen and is projected to rise further [2-4]. Severe water scarcity events are predicted for up to 60% of the world’s wheat-growing areas by the end of this century [5]. Furthermore, for each 1°C increase in average seasonal temperature, it is predicted that wheat yields will decrease by 6% on average globally, and much more in some already marginal environments where wheat is a traditional staple food [6,7]. At the current rate of yield gain, wheat production is predicted to fall well short of future demand due to population growth alone. Emerging environmental threats only make the challenge harder. On top of this, demand by consumers, farmers and the food industry is predicted to increase due to wheat’s high grain-protein content relative to other cereals, wide growing range and adaptability to most environmental stresses. Since farmer adoption of improved cultivars is a critical part of adaptation [8], new and more targeted breeding efforts are needed to ensure that wheat's climate resilience is maximized [9-11]. This article briefly outlines research that has been conducted and current research needs to develop climate resilient wheat.
Date:	2022–01–07
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hvd4e&r=

By:	Tran, Nhuong; Shikuku, Kelvin Mashisia; Peart, Jeffrey; Chan, Chin Yee; Chu, Long; Bailey, Conner; Valdivia, Roberto
Abstract:	Focusing on economic methods, this study provides a comprehensive review of the current research in fisheries and aquaculture within the context of climate change. We find there has been remarkable progress in evaluating the biophysical impacts of climate change on fish. However, the effect those impacts have on future fish stocks, yields, and dynamics are less understood. Climate change adaptation strategies in fisheries and aquaculture lack quantitative assessment, while current vulnerability indices rely heavily on subjective weighting schemes. Economic studies involving fisheries and aquaculture have seen some recent advancements but can be improved through incorporating methods from other disciplines, notably agricultural economics. Relative to its increasingly large role in global fish supply, the aquaculture sector is found to be under-represented in the economic literature. We suggest that future research in fisheries and aquaculture should further incorporate methods from agricultural economics, focus on the economics of aquaculture, and refine interdisciplinary research methods such as bioeconomic modelling.
Date:	2022–01–12
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zctxn&r=

By:	Donkor, Emmanuel; Mbeche, Robert; Mithofer, Dagmar
Abstract:	Agrifood marketing in sub-Saharan Africa is associated with high inefficiencies, which emanate from high transaction costs, poor coordination and asymmetric information. These challenges lead to high food prices and limited accessibility to consumers. Formal contracts could address these challenges, but they are largely non-existent in the traditional agrifood marketing. Studies addressing the agrifood marketing challenges have focused mainly on farmers and consumers. However, the mid-stream actors who bridge the gap between farmers and consumers are ignored in scientific and policy debates. The paper therefore analyses factors that influence relational contract decision of retailers using a primary data set from 500 grasshopper retailers in Central Uganda. We find that major of the retailers procure grasshoppers through spot market transactions. However, a few of them develop relational contract with their suppliers. Consistent with the theory of relational contract, trust and close relationship reinforce relational contract between retailers and suppliers. We also find that transactional factors such as transport asset and cost prices of grasshoppers stimulate retailers to engage in relational contract with suppliers.
Keywords:	Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing
Date:	2021–11–18
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317078&r=

By:	Gotor, Elisabetta; Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Cenacchi, Nicola; Tran, Nhuong; Dunston, Shahnila; Dermawan, Ahmad; Valera, Harold Glenn; Wiberg, David; Tesfaye, Kindie; Mausch, Kai (World Agroforestry (ICRAF))
Abstract:	Food, land, and water systems are facing unprecedented change. The world’s population is projected to grow to approximately 10 billion people by 2050, while aging and declining in some regions. Global average incomes are expected to keep increasing at a slow but steady pace. With increasing incomes and the ability of consumers to purchase more and better food in combination with population growth, food demand is projected to grow substantially over the next three decades. Meanwhile, demographic changes and economic development also drive urbanization, migration, and structural transformation of rural communities. At the same time changes to precipitation and temperature as well as the occurrence of extreme events driven by climate change are becoming more prevalent and impacting society and the environment. Currently, humanity is approaching or exceeding planetary boundaries in some areas, with over-use of limited productive natural resources such as water and phosphate, net emissions of greenhouse gases, and decreases in biodiversity Much is published about food and agriculture and the supporting/underpinning land and water systems, but no single source focuses regularly and systematically on the future of agriculture and food systems, particularly on the challenges and opportunities faced by developing countries. This working paper is part of an effort by the CGIAR foresight team to help fill that gap. The effort recognizes that there is much to learn from past experience, and there are clearly many urgent and immediate challenges, but given the pace and complexity of change we are currently experiencing, there is also an increasing need to look carefully into the future of food, land, and water systems to inform decision making today.
Date:	2021–12–21
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ajs6q&r=

By:	Zamani, Omid; Chibanda, Craig; Pelikan, Janine
Abstract:	Due to the Avian Influenza outbreak in Europe, Ghana has imposed an import ban on some European countries. This paper analyses the potential effects of this partial ban on Ghanaian chicken producers and agricultural trade. Due to the growing support for a total ban on poultry imports by various value chain actors, we also analyze the impact of a complete ban on Ghana's poultry imports. We apply an integrated method covering General Equilibrium and typical farm analysis. Our findings show that the partial ban has a lower governmental cost compared with the total ban. Nevertheless, the effect of a total ban on domestic producers is more significant. Moreover, a total import ban increases production mainly for the large-scale integrated farms in Ghana.
Keywords:	Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade
Date:	2021–11–18
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317063&r=

By:	Mensah, Charles; Enahoro, Dolapo
Abstract:	• This study explores how regional-level interactions of livestock and crop sectors influence the capacity of a southern Africa sub-region to meet its future demand for livestock-derived foods. • It uses a spatial equilibrium modeling framework to simulate regional trade in poultry and maize products in Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia. • Model outputs on the demand, production, and trade of poultry products and maize are compared for a baseline and an alternative future scenario representing drought conditions. • The study’s abstraction of a regional approach to livestock and feed sector interactions in the selected region highlights the role of markets in addressing cross-boundary challenges related to food demand expansion and resource management. • Results imply that the study countries could benefit from addressing their growing demands for livestock-derived foods using a harmonized approach. Further, regional livestock markets may offer cushioning effects to the impacts of climate change in at least one of the countries. • However, improved quality data and an enhanced specification of the analytical model to better account for the nuances of livestock and feed trade in the region and for varied scenarios of future climate change will be needed, to extend the current study to practical policy application.
Date:	2022–01–07
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ehd3j&r=

By:	Tappendorf, Sandra
Abstract:	After periods of progress, prevalence of undernutrition has been increasing in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) since 2015. At the same time, with an increase of obesity rates a second burden has been imposed on people living in LMICs. Many common drivers of both forms of malnutrition led to a double-duty call for action to fight undernutrition and obesity simultaneously and with combined resources. The joint effort is of utmost importance, more than ever in light of increasing food insecurity and poverty caused by the COVID pandemic. However, studies of the growing body of obesity interventions have not thoroughly incorporated an impact evaluation of undernutrition, and a comprehensive literature review is missing. To systematically review obesity interventions in LMICs, main relevant databases have been used. We found that deliberate attention to undernutrition is yet rare which calls for a continuous emphasis of the double-duty focus shift.
Keywords:	Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption / Nutrition / Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty
Date:	2021–11–18
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317094&r=

By:	Kornher, Lukas; Kubik, Zaneta; Chichaibelu, Bezawit Beyene
Abstract:	In this study, we discuss and examine empirically the relevance of targeted ODA to the agricultural sector to improve food and nutrition security. Given the relationship between agricultural growth and poverty reduction as well as food and nutrition security, aid attributed specifically to the agricultural sector could have a stronger and more immediate impact than overall aid. We find a statistically significant and economically meaningful contribution of agricultural ODA to hunger and malnutrition reduction since 2000. This has important implications for donor countries that focus on the fight against hunger in their development cooperation strategies, such as Germany and its “One World without Hunger” initiative. To account for the potential reverse causality of aid and development outcomes, we follow the instrumentation approach of RAJAN AND SUBRAMANIAN (2008) and ARNDT ET AL. (2010) and apply it to sectoral aid using two novel zero-stage instruments.
Keywords:	Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade
Date:	2021–11–18
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317077&r=

By:	Chan, Chin Yee; Prager, Steven; Balie, Jean; Kozicka, Marta; Hareau, Guy; Valera, Harold Glenn; Tran, Nhuong; Wiebe, Keith; Diagne, Mandiaye; Alene, Arega
Abstract:	Global progress towards food security and nutrition has been slow in many places and even reversing in others. Against the background of changes in population, income, technology, climate, and other drivers, the pressures on food systems are daunting. When designing and rolling out future interventions towards these goals it is of vital importance to utilize foresight knowledge to anticipate, shape, and prepare for alternative possible futures. Overcoming current and emerging challenges but also seizing opportunities as they present themselves requires continued efforts to provide robust analysis to inform decision making. Here we collated the latest insights from foresight studies around three central aspects within the food system. First, consumer demand and the changes this is undergoing is a key aspect shaping the food system itself as well as nutritional and environmental outcomes. Second, distributional inequalities and trade-offs within the food system have further been identified as key challenges to tackling adverse health outcomes of the current food system. And third, amplified by the COVID crisis, enhancing the resilience of the food system that is increasingly under threat from multiple risks has risen to the top of the agenda.
Date:	2021–12–17
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qgn9u&r=

By:	Camille Laville (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
Abstract:	In 2018, 1,300 people were killed and 300,000 displaced as a result of herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. These tensions threaten the already weakened security, economic development and food security in Western Africa. Indeed, cross-border transhumance of herders during the dry season is an important economic activity recognized by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This practice is also an important adaptation strategy to climate change for Sahelian States that have developed a comparative advantage in producing and exporting livestock. However, the establishment of a harmonized legal framework surrounding this practice is hampered by coordination failures between Coastal States (primary receivers of livestock flows) and the Sahelian States (primary providers of livestock flows). The growth of the Nigerian agricultural sector through the expansion of agricultural land threatens the last open pastures and transhumance corridors. Indeed, Nigeria faces a scarcity of arable land for a growing rural population. Is competition for the remaining Nigerian grassland a factor of violence between nomadic herders from Niger and Nigerian farmers? Recent empirical evidence suggests that climate-induced migration of herders to nearby agricultural areas (short transhumance) is associated with a higher risk of herder-farmer conflict for the remaining pastoral resources. However, no analysis has been made on the case of lengthy and costly transhumance. This article analyses the security implications of cross-border transhumance between Niger and Nigeria at the scale of 0.5x0.5 degree cells between 2006 and 2016. Using spatial panel techniques and satellite data on land cover, it questions the importance of grassland grabbing strategies as a cause of the recent herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. The obtained results hardly coincide with the idea that transhumant herders from Niger enter into conflict with Nigerian farmers over the grabbing of the last grazing resources. Ultimately, the economy of Sahelian countries, which depends on livestock trade, is threatened by a political instrumentalization of herder-farmer conflicts through the rhetoric of "invaders against farmers."
Abstract:	Pour l'année 2018, le bilan estimé des affrontements entre éleveurs et agriculteurs au Nigéria est de 1 300 victimes et 300 000 personnes déplacées. Ces tensions menacent la stabilité, le développement économique et la sécurité alimentaire déjà affaiblis en Afrique de l'Ouest. En effet, la transhumance transfrontalière des éleveurs pendant la saison sèche est une activité économique dont l'importance régionale est reconnue par la Communauté économique des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO). Cette pratique relève également d'une stratégie d'adaptation au changement climatique essentielle pour les États sahéliens qui ont développé un avantage comparatif dans la production et l'exportation de bétail avec leurs voisins. Cependant, la mise en place d'un cadre juridique harmonisé autour de cette pratique est entravée par des problèmes de coordination entre les États côtiers (principaux destinataires des flux de bétail) et les États sahéliens (principaux fournisseurs de flux de bétail). La croissance du secteur agricole nigérian par l'expansion des terres agricoles menace les derniers pâturages ouverts et les couloirs de transhumance. En effet, le Nigéria est confronté à une pénurie de terres arables pour une population rurale croissante. La concurrence pour les derniers pâturages nigérians est-elle un facteur de violence entre les éleveurs nomades du Niger et les agriculteurs nigérians ? Des preuves empiriques récentes suggèrent que la migration des éleveurs induite par le climat dans les zones agricoles voisines (courte transhumance) est associée à un risque plus élevé de conflit éleveur-agriculteur pour les ressources pastorales restantes. Cependant, aucune analyse n'a été faite sur la question de l'accès aux pâturages lors de transhumances longues et coûteuses. Cet article analyse les implications sécuritaires de la transhumance transfrontalière entre le Niger et le Nigéria à l'échelle de cellules de 0,5x0,5 degrés entre 2006 et 2016. En utilisant des techniques de panel spatial et des données satellitaires sur la couverture terrestre, il questionne l'importance des stratégies d'accaparement des prairies comme une cause des récents conflits éleveurs-agriculteurs au Nigéria. Les résultats obtenus coïncident peu avec l'idée que les éleveurs transhumants depuis le Niger entrent en conflits avec les agriculteurs Nigérian pour l'accaparement des dernières ressources en pâturage. In fine, l'économie des pays sahéliens liée au commerce du bétail est menacée par l'instrumentalisation politique du conflit entre éleveurs et agriculteurs passant par l'utilisation de la rhétorique "envahisseurs versus agriculteurs".
Keywords:	Niger,Nigeria,Climate change,Agriculture,Migration
Date:	2021–09
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-03350202&r=

By:	Anna Birgitte Milford (NIBIO - Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research); Nina Trandem (NIBIO - Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research); Armando José Garcia Pires
Abstract:	Due to an EU directive making integrated pest management (IPM) mandatory, European farmers are expected to reduce their use of chemical pesticides, which may potentially increase production costs and risk of harvest loss. Less pesticide use is appreciated by many consumers and may generate a higher willingness to pay (WTP). However, IPM is a wide concept and it is difficult for consumers to distinguish between products with high and low risk of pesticide residues. As a result, consumers might use other characteristics, such as country of origin, for the identification of safer products. In this study, we investigate if a higher WTP for Norwegian strawberries is associated with a belief that they contain less pesticide residues than imported berries. We use regression analysis to estimate to what extent the difference in WTP for Norwegian and imported strawberries is correlated with various perceptions about strawberries. The analyses reveal that the stronger the belief that Norwegian strawberries have less pesticide risk than imported ones, the higher the WTP for Norwegian strawberries. This means that if consumers believe domestic farmers use little pesticides, domestic products might be able to sell at considerably higher prices than imports. Hence, it may be economically beneficial for farmers to keep pesticide use at a minimum. Furthermore, we find that consumers have a higher WTP for strawberries produced with less use of pesticides, although not pesticide-free, indicating that IPM is appreciated.
Keywords:	Strawberries,Country of origin,Pesticides,Norway,Willingness to pay (WTP),Integrated pest management (IPM)
Date:	2021
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03527986&r=

By:	Abdoulaye Sy (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Catherine Araujo-Bonjean (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Marie-Eliette Dury (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Nourddine Azzaoui (LMBP - Laboratoire de Mathématiques Blaise Pascal - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Arnaud Guillin (LMBP - Laboratoire de Mathématiques Blaise Pascal - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
Abstract:	A critical stage in drought hazard assessment is the definition of a drought event, and the measure of its intensity. Actually, the classical approach imposes to all climatic region the same set of thresholds for drought severity classification, hence resulting in a loss of information on rare events in the distribution tails, which are precisely the most important to catch in risk analysis. In order to better assess extreme events, we resort to an extreme value mixture model with a normal distribution for the bulk and a Generalized Pareto distribution for the upper and lower tails, to estimate the intensity of extreme droughts and their occurrence probability. Compare to the standard approach to drought hazard, which relies on a standardized precipitation index and a classification of drought intensity established from the cumulative standard normal distribution function, our approach allows the drought threshold and the occurrence probability of drought to depend on the specific characteristics of each precipitation distribution. An application to the West Africa region shows that the accuracy of our mixture model is higher than that of the standard model. The mixture performs better at modelling the lowest percentiles and specifically the return level of the centennial drought, which is generally overestimated in the standard approach.
Keywords:	Mixture model,Generalized pareto distribution,Drought,Extreme value theory
Date:	2021–07
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-03297023&r=

By:	Celine de Quatrebarbes (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Bertrand Laporte (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Stéphane Calipel (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
Abstract:	As happened in West Africa in 2008, in an imported inflation context, it is common for the governments to take short-term tax action to protect the poor: VAT or trade tariffs exemptions. As part of the tax-tariff transition, the comparison between Trade tariffs and VAT has already been the subject of much works. The introduction of VAT, as a tax on final consumption, is supposed to be optimal, due to its economically neutral aspect for production decisions. However, some authors show that in developing countries, a large informal sector affects this result. In this paper, we use a CGE model and a micro-simulation model to compare the effects of VAT and Trade tariffs exemptions to combat rising agricultural food prices. The approach is innovative because it integrates how VAT works in developing countries (VAT increases production costs for some producers), in a context of imperfect competition for the service of marketing products. Results show that VAT exemptions are more effective than Trade tariffs exemptions in limiting the effects of the rise in world prices on poverty in Niger. In the context of the current increase in food prices linked to the Covid-19 crisis (FAO, 2020), this issues may one again be in the limelight for the African governments.
Keywords:	Computable general equilibrium model,Imperfect competition,Indirect taxes,Poverty,Niger
Date:	2021–02
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-03138369&r=

By:	Komarek, Adam M.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Sulser, Timothy B; Wiebe, Keith; Willenbockel, Dirk
Abstract:	The effect of global diet shifts on human health, the natural environment, and the financial cost of obtaining food has been extensively quantified. The current study complements these quantifications by examining the economy-wide consequences of global diet shifts. We used a computable general equilibrium model to quantify the changes in employment and income in all geographic regions of the globe in the year 2050 under a global shift towards more sustainable human diets. These more sustainable diets are lower in livestock-derived foods, higher in fruit and vegetables, and lower in refined sugar than diets under the current trajectory for food demand out to the year 2050. Our results show that transitioning towards more sustainable diets at the global scale in sub-Saharan Africa will decrease employment in the livestock sector and increase employment in the crop sector, with an overall reallocation of labor from the industry and services sectors to the agriculture sector. West Africa was the region of the globe that encountered the greatest decline in income of 14% as a result of the global diet shift, driven by the reallocation of labor into the lower value-added agriculture sector and driven by West Africa’s high share of total household expenditure spent on food. These findings have important implications for understanding trade-offs and developing strategies to equitably improve livelihoods within the broader context of food system transformation.
Date:	2021–12–21
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:skwvj&r=

By:	CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
Abstract:	In both developed and developing countries, governments often intervene in the agriculture sector to support development and to respond to political-economy pressures, using trade policies or price support for particular agricultural commodities. To understand the full implications of agricultural policies, it is necessary to correctly measure the extent to which policies and their derivatives distort market prices of commodities, and to understand the implications of protection provided to other sectors that affects agricultural incentives through real exchange rate impacts. Multiple international organizations (IOs) provide assessment and measurement of agricultural incentives. However, a comprehensive and long-term global database would enable analysts and policymakers to compare and interpret the impact of policy across commodities, countries, and time. To facilitate construction and dissemination of such a database, the Ag-Incentives Consortium was formed in 2013 to bring together institutional efforts, including those of the Inter-American Development Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Monitoring and Analysing Food and Agricultural Policies program of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-MAFAP), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and World Bank, as well as the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). The Ag-Incentives Consortium is the â€œInternational Organizations Consortium for Measuring the Policy Environment for Agricultureâ€ and is based on the Memorandum of Understanding for Co-operative Activities on Agricultural Incentives Measurement signed by OECD, FAO-MAFAP, IDB, World Bank, and IFPRI. The Consortium has been supported by funding from PIM.
Keywords:	WORLD; policies; databases; incentives; agricultural sector; inclusion; support measures; agricultural transformation
Date:	2021
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pimons:134967&r=

By:	Devesh Rustagi (School of Economics, University of Nottingham); Markus Kroell (private sector)
Abstract:	There is astounding variation in product quality sold in markets even when quality is difficult to ascertain and rules are poorly enforced. We investigate whether sellers differ in innate honesty (incur private cost to provide good quality) and whether this explains the variation in quality. Our study takes place in milk markets in India, where milkmen collude on price, customer rarely switch, and it is difficult to establish reputation. We invite milkmen to take part in a novel behavioral experiment to measure dishonesty. We then measure quality objectively as the percentage of water added to a liter of milk sold to customers. Our results show that dishonest milkmen add significantly more water to milk. Evidence from milk-testing tournament confirms that milk quality is difficult to verify. These results suggest that some sellers are willing to forego monetary gains to provide good quality in return for utility from being honest, even in an environment that encourages cheating.
Keywords:	Honesty, adulteration, milk markets, asymmetric information, measurement error, India
Date:	2022–03
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcdx:2022-03&r=

By:	Khor, Ling Yee; Tran, Nhuong; Shikuku, Kelvin Mashisia; Campos, Natalia; Zeller, Manfred
Abstract:	Polyculture of fish is a common pond-based aquaculture system practiced by small-scale producers in developing countries to improve input use efficiency, and increase productivity and profits. We conduct a cross-country comparison to examine whether the economic and productivity benefits are seen in data of 1,651 ponds from 1,307 fish farming households in three countries: Bangladesh, Egypt, and Myanmar. Among these ponds, polyculture is the prevailing system, as it is practiced in 66% of them. The surveys of these households were completed in 2019. We use propensity score matching to match the ponds based on household and pond characteristics, so that ponds are compared with other similar ponds. Results indicate that the aquaculture revenue and profit of polyculture ponds are higher than those of monoculture ponds by US$4,993 and US$6,985, respectively, per hectare per cycle. The increase is also observed in the systems of tilapia polyculture and rohu polyculture, which are the two most common systems among the sampled farmers. The increase for rohu polyculture at US$7,992 in revenue and US$9,366 in profit per hectare per cycle is higher than the increase for tilapia polyculture at US$4,649 and US$6,649, respectively. However, tilapia polyculture farmers save more harvested fish for household consumption, by 72 kg per cycle, than farmers of other systems. The higher profits for general polyculture, tilapia polyculture, and rohu polyculture are statistically significant after controlling for country-level factors and have high critical value of gamma in the Rosenbaum sensitivity analysis, indicating that these results are robust. This analysis from fish farming households complements the results from pond experiments and can help to inform decision-making in aquaculture policy and training.
Date:	2022–01–24
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bwmq4&r=

By:	Abdelaziz, Fatma; Ellis, Mia; Zhang, Xiaobo
Abstract:	Based on field visits, structured interviews, and reviews of the literature and secondary data, we examine major challenges facing the leather and date clusters in Tunisia. The challenges vary greatly between the clusters. The leather and footwear industry faces a decline in external demand. After the global economic crisis in the late 2000s and the Arab Spring in the early 2010s, the sector lost international competitiveness. To revitalize the sector, policies should be designed to expand markets for leather and footwear. Exploring trade agreement with the US, leveling the tariff rate for intermediate goods and shoes, attracting foreign direct investment, and improving leather quality are among potential policy options. Implementing these policies will require coordination among different government agencies and private sector stakeholders. Besides demand challenges, lack of water treatment also is a major challenge facing tanneries across Tunisia. The international demand for Tunisian dates has been very strong. Most of the major challenges are on the supply side, such as value chain coordination, inadequate water supply, labor shortages, diseases, lack of new varieties, and limited value addition. The supply-side policy options include diversifying varieties and expanding into date derivative and palm waste products, promoting labor-saving mechanization and water-saving irrigation technologies, and improving coordination along the value chain.
Keywords:	TUNISIA, AFRICA, NORTH AFRICA, value chains, clusters, rural areas, markets, livestock, farmers, abattoirs, leather, trade, exports, technology, dates, slaughterhouses, tanneries, shoe manufacturers, tradeoff,
Date:	2021
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:36&r=

By:	Bolotova, Yuliya V.
Abstract:	The U.S. beef packing industry has historically raised competition concerns related to marketing and pricing of cattle and beef. In 2019 cattle producers, a meat wholesaler and consumers filed class action antitrust lawsuits alleging that the four largest beef packers in the country unlawfully conspired to decrease fed cattle prices and to increase wholesale and retail prices of beef and thus violated Section 1 of the Sherman Act. The supply restraints are claimed to be the primary method of implementing this price-fixing conspiracy. The research presented in the paper conducts an econometric analysis of wholesale and retail price behavior in the U.S. beef industry during the period of alleged cartel of the four largest beef packers and the prior (more competitive) period. The empirical evidence on wholesale price behavior indicates a shift from a perfectly competitive pricing of beef packers (wholesalers) during a more competitive period to an oligopoly/monopoly pricing during the alleged cartel period. The empirical evidence on retail price behavior indicates that the pricing of food retailers was consistent with oligopoly pricing during both periods of interest.
Keywords:	Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries
Date:	2021–02
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea21:319359&r=

By:	William A. Masters; Amelia B. Finaret; Steven A. Block
Abstract:	Rapid increases in food supplies have reduced global hunger, while rising burdens of diet-related disease have made poor diet quality the leading cause of death and disability around the world. Today's "double burden" of undernourishment in utero and early childhood then undesired weight gain and obesity later in life is accompanied by a third less visible burden of micronutrient imbalances. The triple burden of undernutrition, obesity, and unbalanced micronutrients that underlies many diet-related diseases such as diabetes, hypertension and other cardiometabolic disorders often coexist in the same person, household and community. All kinds of deprivation are closely linked to food insecurity and poverty, but income growth does not always improve diet quality in part because consumers cannot directly or immediately observe the health consequences of their food options, especially for newly introduced or reformulated items. Even after direct experience and epidemiological evidence reveals relative risks of dietary patterns and nutritional exposures, many consumers may not consume a healthy diet because food choice is driven by other factors. This chapter reviews the evidence on dietary transition and food system transformation during economic development, drawing implications for how research and practice in agricultural economics can improve nutritional outcomes.
Date:	2022–02
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2202.02579&r=

By:	Tran, Nhuong; Chu, Long; Chan, Chin Yee; Peart, Jeffrey; Nasr-Allah, Ahmed M.; Charo-Karisa, Harrison
Abstract:	Aquaculture plays an increasingly important role in meeting the rising global demand for fish fuelled by economic and demographic growth. However, in many middle income countries, the growth of aquaculture is constrained by rising labor costs, limited input supply, environmental concerns, and infectious diseases. In this paper, we developed a multi species, multi sector equilibrium model and applied it to the fishery sector of Egypt, a leading aquaculture producer in Africa, to examine these barriers. Projection results show that rising wage rates would slow down the growth of labour-intensive aquaculture compared to those that use relatively less labour. The demand for feed, seed inputs and water use for aquaculture would substantially increase. The results also show that disease outbreaks would possibly affect production sectors via output reduction and also consumers via increases in fish price. Our findings suggest that stabilising the prices of feed and seed, investments in disease control and input use efficiency improvement technologies, including water use, are important while the overall effectiveness of tax instruments is modest. Though calibrated to Egypt, our approach can be applied to other middle size national aquaculture industries.
Date:	2022–01–12
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pbdkg&r=

By:	Loganathan, Muralidharan (PrivateCircle); Subrahmanya, MH Bala
Abstract:	Technology commercialization from public research universities provide impetus to startups with know-how that have a potential to succeed in the market. We examine a network-based incubator, in an agricultural research university, that supports the development of startups. Our study explores networking and technology commercialization support utilized by the incubated startups. We examine the mechanisms of network formation in a university-based incubator and distinguish the entrepreneurial and university networks formed. From the study, we develop a set of propositions relating outcomes at the startup level with entrepreneurial affiliation, experience, institutional incentives considering the local contextual factors. Using these, we derive managerial and policy implications for the stakeholders looking at diffusion of university developed technologies. The study explores the black box of entrepreneurship support, and provides appropriate strategies to technology commercialization with agri-tech startups. The study has implications to universities that support entrepreneurship formally and informally.
Date:	2022–01–25
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rntkd&r=

By:	Kozicka, Marta; Enahoro, Dolapo; Groot, Jeroen C.J.; Rich, Karl M.; Gotor, Elisabetta
Abstract:	This document is part of a series of short papers on “The Future of X”, produced as part of foresight-related research supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, and edited by Keith Wiebe (IFPRI) and Steven Prager (Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT). These short papers are intended to provide a focused, forward-looking perspective on key issues to support discussion on food, land, and water systems transformation. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier draft. This is an accepted version presented as a pre-print. It is currently undergoing final revision, editing, and production. A final version will be made available at http://foresight.cgiar.org.
Date:	2021–12–20
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:d2rgx&r=

By:	Flintan, Fiona
Abstract:	Customary pastoral tenure and governance systems are relatively broad sets of institutions characterized by principles of collectivity, flexibility, adaptability, and multiple uses by multiple users (Davies et al. 2016; Flintan et al. 2021). These tenure systems are becoming ever more complex as livelihoods and land use diversify and as pastoralists attempt to access land and resources through mechanisms other than their customary institutions, including through privatization and formalized land certification (Flintan et al. 2021; Nori 2021). The resulting tenure systems are described by Robinson (2019) as â€œcomplex mosaics.â€ Alternatively, Flintan (2021) (following Niamir-Fuller 2005) refers to them as â€œnestedâ€ systems where regulating laws and institutions work on the basis of â€œterritoryâ€ or â€œdomain,â€ under which there is a hierarchy of nested, overlapping bundles of rights for diverse sets of users and often for the same resource. Despite these complexities, collective tenure continues to be core, ensuring pastoralist systems function well and their resilience to crises such as drought is strengthened.
Keywords:	ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, TANZANIA, INDIA, SOUTH ASIA, ASIA, pastoral lands, gender, women, governance, pastoralism, tenure, men, land use, tenure security
Date:	2021
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pimfbs:1293757326&r=

By:	Lankheit, Sophie; Hempel, Corinna
Abstract:	Through the application of a Q methodological approach, this study captures consumers’ viewpoints on grocery shopping, food preparation, and food consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdowns of public life that were implemented along with social distancing guidelines shifted consumption from outside to inside consumers’ homes and interrupted consumers’ routines. Various changes in consumer behavior occurred, such as hoarding, buying more local food, and preparing meals at home. Since there is still a lack of socio-economic research on factors influencing changes in consumer behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study provides a basis for further research by analyzing consumers’ beliefs in a holistic manner. Four viewpoints on the changes in consumer behavior during the pandemic are identified, varying in their focus on food preparation, grocery shopping, the risk of infection, or conscious consumption. The findings suggest that the pandemic has changed the mindset of only some consumers towards more sustainable consumption practices, although it is often considered as a catalyst for sustainable behavior. To encourage further development in this respect, policies and marketing activities should be aimed at beliefs already held by consumers. Messages should thus be designed with the identified viewpoints in mind.
Keywords:	Food Consumption / Nutrition / Food Safety, Marketing, Research Methods / Statistical Methods
Date:	2021–11–18
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317055&r=

By:	Wiebe, Keith; Prager, Steven
Abstract:	This document is one of a collection of three working papers and a synthesis brief edited by Steven Prager and Keith Wiebe and prepared as part of foresight-related research supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). This synthesis brief and the three working papers, along with other related materials, are intended to provide a forward-looking perspective on key issues to support discussion on food, land, and water systems transformation.
Date:	2021–12–29
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pxdwh&r=

By:	Schmidt, Lorenz; Odening, Martin; Schlanstein, Johann; Ritter, Matthias
Abstract:	Weather is a pivotal factor for crop production as it is highly volatile and can hardly be controlled by farm management practices. Since there is a tendency towards increased weather extremes in the future, understanding the weather-related yield factors becomes increasingly important not only for yield prediction, but also for the design of insurance products that mitigate financial losses for farmers. In this study, an artificial neural network is set up and calibrated to a rich set of farm-level wheat yield data in Germany covering the period from 2003 to 2018. A nonlinear regression model, which uses rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture as explanatory variables for yield deviations, serves as a benchmark. The empirical application reveals that the gain in estimation precision by using machine learning techniques compared with traditional estimation approaches is quite substantial and that the use of regionalized models and high-resolution weather data improve the performance of ANN.
Keywords:	Production Economics, Research Methods / Statistical Methods
Date:	2021–11–18
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317075&r=

By:	Spahn, Laurin; Höhler, Julia
Abstract:	Structural change in agriculture and competitive pressure transform the business environment of farm supply and grain elevator businesses. Strategies are an important tool for gaining or maintaining competitive advantages in this situation. Possible strategies include increasing diversification or the realization of economies of scale through growth. However, the analysis of strategies poses challenges as they often develop over time and contain both deliberate and non-deliberate elements. In a mixed methods approach, we combine a media analysis with a manager survey (n=62) to investigate past and future strategies of agricultural traders in Germany. We show that cooperation, diversification and autonomous growth were among the most popular strategic actions in the past 10 years and, according to the surveyed managers, will be in the future. The majority expect to offer more digital and consulting services in the future. This study provides new insights into agricultural traders’ realized and intended strategies.
Keywords:	Agribusiness
Date:	2021–11–18
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317047&r=

By:	Kresova, Svetlana; Hess, Sebastian
Abstract:	Drivers of regional milk price differences across Russian regions are difficult to determine due to limited data availability and restrictions on data collection. In this study, official data from Russian regions for the period from 2013 to 2018 was analysed based on 18 predictor variables in order to explain the regional raw milk price. Due to various data-based restrictions, the use of conventional panel regression models was limited and the analysis was therefore performed based on a Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm. Model training and hyperparameter optimization was performed on the training data set with time folds cross-validation. The findings of the study showed that the RF algorithm has a good predictive performance in the test data set even with the default RF values. Finally, the RF variable importance showed that income, gross regional product, livestock density, and milk yield are the four most important variables for explaining the variation in regional milk prices.
Keywords:	Agribusiness, International Development, Livestock Production/Industries
Date:	2021–11–18
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317051&r=

By:	Kissi, Evans; Herzig, Christian
Abstract:	This paper examines the factors that bring about the participation of smallholders in lead firm governance of labour-related practices. It also clarifies the conditions leading to smallholder decent work through economic and social upgrading. The study is based on qualitative primary data, collected from various key actors along Ghana’s cocoa value chains. Our findings show that lead firms govern decent work through vertical paths, horizontal paths and a combination of both paths. In addition, we found that smallholders’ participation in vertical, horizontal or both is influenced by incentives, cooperation and multi-stakeholder collaboration, respectively. Our study also reveals two types of economic upgrading—process upgrading and product upgrading—and clarifies the conditions through which economic and social upgrading are interlinked. Overall, our analysis shows that economic upgrading of smallholder cocoa farmers does not fully translate into social upgrading for the smallholders themselves and their farm workers. This is due to the cost of labour, weak labour monitoring, poor health training and education and the structural power of smallholder producers. We contribute to literature on key drivers for smallholder participation in various lead firm governance approaches—as well as on how global governance of value chains may simultaneously promote economic and social upgrading of smallholder producers and their farm workers. The study findings provide avenues for further research to enhance decent work in global value chains through economic and social upgrading.
Keywords:	Agribusiness, Labor and Human Capital
Date:	2021–11–18
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317070&r=

By:	Martin Fiszbein; Yeonha Jung; Dietrich Vollrath
Abstract:	We study the influence of agricultural labor intensity on individualism across U.S. counties. To measure historical labor intensity in agriculture we combine data on crop-specific labor requirements and county-specific crop mix around 1900. To address endogeneity we exploit climate-induced variation in crop mix. Our estimates indicate that an increase of one standard deviation in labor intensity is associated with a reduction of 0.2-0.4 standard deviations in individualism (as captured by the share of children with infrequent names). We further document consistent patterns using within-county changes in labor intensity over time due to both mechanization and the boll weevil shock. While culture transformed in response to changes in labor intensity, we also find that historical agricultural patterns had a lasting imprint that influences geographic variation in individualism today.
JEL:	N51 O13 P16
Date:	2022–01
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29643&r=

By:	Burgess, Matthew G.; Becker, Sarah L.; Fredston, Alexa; Brooks, Cassandra M.
Abstract:	Climate change projections are central to fisheries and aquatic conservation research, and to planning for a warming world. Such projections include assumptions about future emissions pathways and climate-system sensitivity to emissions. Fisheries and aquatic conservation research typically uses emissions scenarios created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, recent climate research and global development trends have significantly changed our understanding of the ranges of plausible emissions pathways to 2100 and climate sensitivities. Here, we provide a concise review of these updates to our understanding of climate futures, and we make recommendations for best-practice use of climate change scenarios in fisheries and aquatic conservation research. Although emissions pathways are subject to deep uncertainty, recent research suggests that emissions scenarios producing a range of approximately 3.4-4.5W/m2 radiative forcing by 2100 might be most plausible. With median climate sensitivities, this corresponds to approximately 2-3 degrees C global warming by 2100. Climate-sensitivity uncertainties expand this range to approximately 1.5-4 degrees C. In terms of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), radiative forcing outcomes mostly fall between SSP2-3.4 and SSP2-4.5/RCP4.5, though higher and lower emissions scenarios (e.g., RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) might be plausible and should be explored in research. However, we argue that uses of the highest-emission scenarios (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, SSP3-7.0)—which currently predominate the literature—should come with clearly articulated rationales and appropriate caveats to ensure results are not misinterpreted by scholars, policymakers, and media.
Date:	2022–01–26
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nwxae&r=

By:	Enahoro, Dolapo; Tran, Nhuong; Chan, Chin Yee; Komarek, Adam M.; Rich, Karl M.
Abstract:	Demand for animal-source foods (ASF) has grown substantially in Africa over the last four decades, fueled mainly by population growth, urbanization, and modest gains in per capita incomes. Further growth over the medium and longer terms is expected as these trends in external drivers continue, with implications of this growth reflecting a multitude of economic, environmental, and public health trade-offs. This paper provides a focused, forward-looking perspective on key emerging issues around changes in ASF consumption and supply in Africa.
Date:	2021–12–19
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fswmj&r=