nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2021‒10‒04
27 papers chosen by

  1. Subsistence farming and factor misallocation:Evidence from Ugandan agriculture By Bruno Morando
  2. Crop Prices and Deforestation in the Tropics By Nicolas Berman; Mathieu Couttenier; Antoine Leblois; Raphaël Soubeyran
  3. IFAD RURAL DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2021 - Transforming food systems for rural prosperity By IFAD
  4. Market access and inecient cropping patterns in Uganda By Bruno Morando
  5. Approaches for supporting smallholders in the Global South: Contentious issues, experiences, syntheses By Rauch, Theo; Brüntrup, Michael
  6. Weather index insurance: Promises and challenges of promoting social and ecological resilience to climate change By Yu, Lu; Aleksandrova, Mariya
  7. Can Food Produced with New Plant Engineering Techniques Succeed in the Marketplace? A Case Study of Apples By Stéphan Marette; John C. Beghin; Anne-Célia Disdier; Eliza Mojduszka
  8. Designing an effective small farmers scheme in France By Pauline Lecole; Raphaële Préget; Sophie Thoyer
  9. New Plant Engineering Techniques, R&D Investment, and International Trade By Stéphan Marette; Anne-Célia Disdier; Anastasia Bodnar; John C. Beghin
  10. Designing Agri-Environmental Schemes to cope with uncertainty By Margaux Lapierre; Gwenolé Le Velly; Douadia Bougherara; Raphaële Préget; Alexandre Sauquet
  11. Keep Off the Grass : Grassland Scarcity and the Security Implications of Cross-Border Transhumance Between Niger and Nigeria By Camille Laville
  12. Food security in times of crisis: Poor developing countries are different By Brüntrup, Michael
  13. Leveraging Non-Farm Income: Micro-evidence of Occupational Choice for Rural Households in India By Mukherjee, Swayambhu; Kar, Saibal
  14. Economic Production and Biodiversity in the United States By Liang, Yuanning; Rudik, Ivan; Zou, Eric Yongchen
  15. Are small farms really more productive than large farms? By Fernando Aragón; Diego Restuccia; Juan Pablo Rud
  16. Climate Stress Testing By Richard Berner; Robert Engle; Hyeyoon Jung
  17. Effects of internal rural-urban migration on rural non-farm enterprises: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam By Grabrucker, Katharina
  18. River pollution abatement: A decentralized solution through smart contracts By Jens Gudmundsson; Jens Leth Hougaard
  19. Constrained scenarios for twenty-first century human population size based on the empirical coupling to economic growth By Barry W. Brook; Jessie C. Buettel; Sanghyun Hong
  20. Multiobjective recommendation for sustainable production systems By Arnault Pachot; Adélaïde Albouy-Kissi; Benjamin Albouy-Kissi; Frédéric Chausse
  21. Does the provision of information increase the substitution of animal proteins with plant-based proteins? An experimental investigation into consumer choices By Pascale Bazoche; Nicolas Guinet; Sylvaine Poret; Sabrina Teyssier
  22. Forums, fees and data flows: Coordinating mining and water policy in Mongolia By Schoderer, Mirja; Dombrowsky, Ines
  23. Electoral Violence and Supply Chain Disruptions in Kenya's Floriculture Industry By Christopher Ksoll; Rocco Macchiavello; Ameet Morjaria
  24. Design and validation of an index to measure development in rural areas through stakeholder participation By Abreu I.; Mesias F. J.; Ramajo; J
  25. Coordination beyond the state to solve complex water problems: Insights from South Africa By Stuart-Hill, Sabine; Lukat, Evelyn; Pringle, Catherine; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia
  26. Informality, innovation, and knowledge co-creation: characterising collaborative creativity and adaptation in rural development By Tasker, Alex
  27. The Spillover Effects of COVID-19 on Productivity throughout the Supply Chain By Victoria E. Agwam; Pablo Azar; Kyra Frye

  1. By: Bruno Morando (Department of Economics, Maynooth University.)
    Abstract: This paper presents a model where misallocation in the agricultural factors of production is the result of frictions in the food market which result in a disproportionately large subsistence sector. The empirical analysis, based on microdata on Ugandan farms, corroborates the theoretical predictions of the qualitative model. Specifically: subsistence farmers operate inefficiently high shares of land and capital and the efficiency losses are more severe in areas where subsistence farming is more widespread, possi-bly due to higher transportation costs. Conversely, I find no relationship between the level of misallocation and credit access and/or land market activity. These findings suggest that market connectivity also plays a key role in determining the efficiency of agricultural input distribution and that land market liberalization is a necessary but not sufficient condition to tackle misallocation.
    Keywords: Misallocation, Productivity, Agriculture, Uganda
    JEL: Q14 O40 O13
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Nicolas Berman (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Mathieu Couttenier (ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Antoine Leblois (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Raphaël Soubeyran (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Global food demand is rising, pushed by growing world population and dietary changes in developing countries. This encourages farmers to increase crop production which, in turn, increases worldwide demand for agricultural land and the pressure on tropical forests. With a possible doubling of world food demand by 2050, this pressure is not likely to decrease in the next decades. While the impact of food demand on deforestation has been pushed forward in the medias, rigorous evidence using large-N data estimating the causal impact of crop price variations on deforestation remains scarce. Here, we quantify this impact over the twenty first century using high resolution annual forest loss data across the tropics, combined with information about crop-specific agricultural suitability and annual international commodity prices. We find a sizeable impact of price variations on deforestation: crop price variations are estimated to have contributed to 35% of the total predicted deforestation in the tropics over the period 2001-2018. We also highlight that the degree of openness to international trade and level of economic development are first-order local characteristics to explain the magnitude of the impact of crop prices on deforestation.
    Date: 2021–09–23
  3. By: IFAD
    Abstract: This report calls for a revolutionary transformation of the world’s food systems. Today’s food systems have failed to make nutritious diets accessible or affordable to the poor and in a sustainable way. In consequence, at least three billion suffer undernourishment, nutrition deficiencies, or have become overweight. Over the past 70 years the global food system has become less efficient at its primary objective - delivering nutritious food sustainably. A focus on producing high-calorie grains has pushed up yields and cut prices of staple foods. The cost? Food waste, malnutrition and obesity, and environmental degradation. We need to transform the world’s food systems so that they deliver adequate, nutritious diets for all. They must be reshaped to provide decent livelihoods for all who grow, process, store and market our food. They must become fair, inclusive…and sustainable. This report analyses the problems, and provides the solutions. We need to put small-scale farmers and the midstream of firms that supply them with inputs and services, and handle the trading, storing, processing and distribution of food to consumers, at the centre of this transformation.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Bruno Morando (Department of Economics, Maynooth University.)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of transportation costs on cropping patterns in Uganda. By combining village level data on land use and on crop specific land suitability, I show that agricultural TFP could be increased by one third just by reallocating crops according to the underlying structure of comparative advantage. Interestingly, a decomposition indicates that half of these gains can be achieved just by redistributing crop production within narrowly defined areas serving the same urban markets. The empirical analysis suggests that differences in market access are a good candidate to explain these inefficiencies: in line with the qualitative theoretical model, more iso-lated farmers devote systematically more land to non-perishable food crops and their production is less aligned with the agro-climatic conditions they face.
    Keywords: Crop choice, Land Use, Comparative advantage, Market Access
    JEL: Q14 O40 O13
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Rauch, Theo; Brüntrup, Michael
    Abstract: There is a widely held consensus that it will not be possible to feed the world without the help of the smallholders of Africa, Latin America and Asia, who number up to 570 million farms or 2 billion people. Given the sheer size of this figure alone, the sustainable development of smallholder farming will be key to achieving a range of other sustainability goals. Debate rages over how smallholder households in low- and middle-income countries are to overcome these challenges given the rising global population and the increasing scarcity of farmland. Four main contentious issues have emerged from the debate over expedient development and promotion strategies: focus (holistic or support), technology (low- or high-input agriculture), institutional framework (primarily government-run or private-sector services) and alignment of market orientation (locally, regionally or globally aligned). These four contentious strategy issues are meanwhile being melded into two 'idealised' fundamental standpoints on agricultural policy: one of farm production that is based on ecological principles and local knowledge, input-extensive, aligned with regional (food) needs and funded by the public sector and, as its countermodel, farm production that is embedded in a global private-sector agricultural industry based on input-intensive modernisation. At a local and practical level, this conceptional debate is often resolved through pragmatic compromises. Purely market-oriented approaches ignore the need for diversification and consideration of subsistence requirements, while concentrating too much on domestic markets sacrifices opportunities for specialisation and income generation. Although government service systems often have serious weaknesses, private service providers frequently have only a selective interest in specific businesses and products. As efficient as external inputs may be, poorer smallholders are rarely able to bear the costs and risks. An analysis of local needs and opportunities often reveals a need for target-group- and location-specific combinations of strategic elements focused on the objective of intensifying smallholder farming in a socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable way. The search process required for this should be guided by the following basic strategic principles: Rather than being determined unilaterally by market requirements, funding should take equal account of smallholder livelihood systems and local ecosystems. The quest for sustainable innovations that will increase yields and have a broad impact calls for a publicly financed process of locally adapted agricultural research that gets various target groups involved. The respective benefits of private- and public-sector agricultural services should be combined in public-private partnerships and aligned with the needs of the producers. The widespread availability of cash incomes should also be supported, not just the production of food. If strategies like these are to succeed, rural areas must be connected up to the rising demand in the cities by means of infrastructure. To some extent, there is also a need for well-focused protection from global competition while taking the interests of poor consumers into account.
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Yu, Lu; Aleksandrova, Mariya
    Abstract: Rural communities are particularly vulnerable to weather shocks and ecosystem decline. Traditionally, farmers have adapted to climate variability and extremes through various risk management strategies, either individually or cooperatively. However, climate change amplifies the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and exacerbates environmental degradation processes. Market-based risk transfer instruments are now being developed as complements to these conventional risk management strategies to shield rural households from increasing climate risks. At present, risk transfer solutions play a central role in the global climate and development agenda. International- and regional-level initiatives such as the InsuResilience Global Partnership support vulnerable developing countries to increase their financial protection coverage through climate risk finance and insurance, including through innovative micro-level schemes such as weather index insurance. Over the last decade, index-based weather insurance has been gaining attention in the climate resilience discourse. These schemes compensate insured individuals based on a pre-defined weather index instead of individual losses, as with traditional types of insurance. Therefore, this instrument has several advantages, including greater time- and cost-effectiveness and reduced moral hazard risk. Although weather-index insurance holds great promise, there are several challenges in designing and promoting it in developing countries. First, on the demand side, there is a lack of accessibility to affordable insurance, especially for the poorest rural populations exposed to climate hazards. Second, on the supply side, insurance providers are facing an elevated risk of paying larger claims due to the increasing frequency and severity of weather extremes, while reinsurance services are often missing. Third, the ecological effects of implementing weather index microinsurance initiatives receive little attention in research and policy. Yet, protecting the environment and building ecological resilience are critical policy dimensions of climate risk management in rural regions, where the poor disproportionately depend on ecosystem goods and services for a living, as they often lack alternative livelihood strategies. Looking into the key challenges to microinsurance initiatives and drawing upon findings of a review of literature on weather index insurance and field research, this Briefing Paper derives recommendations for development cooperation, governments and insurers for an enhanced action agenda on climate risk insurance. The discussion is focused on the specific case of weather index insurance for the rural poor at the micro level. We emphasise the importance of enhancing knowledge on the potential positive and negative ecological effects of weather insurance schemes, and the need to develop a diverse set of climate risk management strategies for the poor, including social protection mechanisms.
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Stéphan Marette; John C. Beghin; Anne-Célia Disdier; Eliza Mojduszka
    Abstract: New Plant Engineering Techniques (NPETs) have path-breaking potential to improve foods by strengthening their production, increasing resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses, and by bettering their appearance and nutritional quality. Can NPETs-based foods succeed in the marketplace? Providing answers to this question, we first develop a simple economic model for R&D investment in food innovations based on NPETs and traditional hybridization methods, to identify which technology emerges under various parameter characterizations and associated economic welfare outcomes. The framework combines the cost of food innovation with consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for the new food, highlighting the uncertain and costly nature of R&D processes as well as the role of consumer acceptance of technology, and the cost of ignorance, and regret, if consumers are not fully informed on the technology used to generate the new food. We then apply the framework to a case of NPETs-based new apples using recently elicited WTP of French and US consumers. Our simulation results suggest that NPETs may be socially beneficial under full information, and when the probability of success under NPETs is significantly higher than under traditional hybridization. Otherwise, the innovation based on traditional hybridization is socially optimal. A probable collapse of conventional apples raises the social desirability of new apples generated by NPETs and traditional hybridization.
    Date: 2021–09
  8. By: Pauline Lecole (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Raphaële Préget (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sophie Thoyer (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: The 2014 CAP introduced the Small Farmers Scheme (SFS), offering small farms the option of an unconditional annual lump-sum payment per farm replacing the standard first pillar direct payments. This paper assesses the acceptability in France of an extended version of the 2014 SFS for the post-2020 CAP: it includes conditions on farmers' environmental efforts and on salaried employment. The results of a discrete choice experiment conducted at the scale of France with 608 farmers receiving less than 15,000€ in first pillar payments show that an SFS with an environmental certification prerequisite is attractive to French small farmers, notably in the market gardening sector. We provide simulated results of the uptake rate and budgetary impacts of different SFS scenarii on the population of non-retired French farmers based on the last agricultural census..
    Keywords: CAP,small farms,Discrete choice experiments
    Date: 2022–01
  9. By: Stéphan Marette; Anne-Célia Disdier; Anastasia Bodnar; John C. Beghin
    Abstract: New Plant Engineering Techniques (NPETs) may significantly improve both production and quality of foods. Consumers and regulators around the world might be reluctant to accept such products, which may cripple adoption and global market penetration of these products. We develop a parsimonious economic model for R&D investment in food innovations to identify conditions under which NPET technology emerges in a context of international trade. The framework integrates consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for the new food, the uncertainty of R&D processes, the associated regulatory cost of approval, and the competition between domestic and foreign products. With generic applicability, the model enables the quantitative analysis of new foods that could be introduced in markets and then traded across borders. We apply the framework to a hypothetical case of apples improved with NPETs. Simulation results suggest that import bans and high values of sunk costs can reduce R&D investment in NPETs to suboptimal levels.
    Date: 2021–09
  10. By: Margaux Lapierre (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Gwenolé Le Velly (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Douadia Bougherara (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Raphaële Préget (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Alexandre Sauquet (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: One of the factors that discourages farmers from enrolling in agro-environmental schemes (AES) is the uncertainty of the costs and benefits associated with the adoption of the new practices. In this study, we distinguish between the "internal uncertainty" that is related to the characteristics of the farmer and his/her parcels and "external uncertainty", which is related to the occurrence of external events. We propose three innovations to better account for uncertainty in AES design and test their attractiveness through a choice experiment. We find that proposing contracts that allow suspending the conditions of the contract for one year enhances participation.
    Keywords: Agri-environmental Measures,Uncertainty,Flexibility,Choice Experiment,Herbicides,Cover Crops,Winegrowing
    Date: 2021–09–20
  11. By: Camille Laville (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: In 2018, 1,300 people were killed and 300,000 displaced as a result of herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. These tensions threaten the already weakened security, economic development and food security in Western Africa. Indeed, cross-border transhumance of herders during the dry season is an important economic activity recognized by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This practice is also an important adaptation strategy to climate change for Sahelian States that have developed a comparative advantage in producing and exporting livestock. However, the establishment of a harmonized legal framework surrounding this practice is hampered by coordination failures between Coastal States (primary receivers of livestock flows) and the Sahelian States (primary providers of livestock flows). The growth of the Nigerian agricultural sector through the expansion of agricultural land threatens the last open pastures and transhumance corridors. Indeed, Nigeria faces a scarcity of arable land for a growing rural population. Is competition for the remaining Nigerian grassland a factor of violence between nomadic herders from Niger and Nigerian farmers? Recent empirical evidence suggests that climate-induced migration of herders to nearby agricultural areas (short transhumance) is associated with a higher risk of herder-farmer conflict for the remaining pastoral resources. However, no analysis has been made on the case of lengthy and costly transhumance. This article analyses the security implications of cross-border transhumance between Niger and Nigeria at the scale of 0.5x0.5 degree cells between 2006 and 2016. Using spatial panel techniques and satellite data on land cover, it questions the importance of grassland grabbing strategies as a cause of the recent herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. The obtained results hardly coincide with the idea that transhumant herders from Niger enter into conflict with Nigerian farmers over the grabbing of the last grazing resources. Ultimately, the economy of Sahelian countries, which depends on livestock trade, is threatened by a political instrumentalization of herder-farmer conflicts through the rhetoric of "invaders against farmers."
    Abstract: Pour l'année 2018, le bilan estimé des affrontements entre éleveurs et agriculteurs au Nigéria est de 1 300 victimes et 300 000 personnes déplacées. Ces tensions menacent la stabilité, le développement économique et la sécurité alimentaire déjà affaiblis en Afrique de l'Ouest. En effet, la transhumance transfrontalière des éleveurs pendant la saison sèche est une activité économique dont l'importance régionale est reconnue par la Communauté économique des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO). Cette pratique relève également d'une stratégie d'adaptation au changement climatique essentielle pour les États sahéliens qui ont développé un avantage comparatif dans la production et l'exportation de bétail avec leurs voisins. Cependant, la mise en place d'un cadre juridique harmonisé autour de cette pratique est entravée par des problèmes de coordination entre les États côtiers (principaux destinataires des flux de bétail) et les États sahéliens (principaux fournisseurs de flux de bétail). La croissance du secteur agricole nigérian par l'expansion des terres agricoles menace les derniers pâturages ouverts et les couloirs de transhumance. En effet, le Nigéria est confronté à une pénurie de terres arables pour une population rurale croissante. La concurrence pour les derniers pâturages nigérians est-elle un facteur de violence entre les éleveurs nomades du Niger et les agriculteurs nigérians ? Des preuves empiriques récentes suggèrent que la migration des éleveurs induite par le climat dans les zones agricoles voisines (courte transhumance) est associée à un risque plus élevé de conflit éleveur-agriculteur pour les ressources pastorales restantes. Cependant, aucune analyse n'a été faite sur la question de l'accès aux pâturages lors de transhumances longues et coûteuses. Cet article analyse les implications sécuritaires de la transhumance transfrontalière entre le Niger et le Nigéria à l'échelle de cellules de 0,5x0,5 degrés entre 2006 et 2016. En utilisant des techniques de panel spatial et des données satellitaires sur la couverture terrestre, il questionne l'importance des stratégies d'accaparement des prairies comme une cause des récents conflits éleveurs-agriculteurs au Nigéria. Les résultats obtenus coïncident peu avec l'idée que les éleveurs transhumants depuis le Niger entrent en conflits avec les agriculteurs Nigérian pour l'accaparement des dernières ressources en pâturage. In fine, l'économie des pays sahéliens liée au commerce du bétail est menacée par l'instrumentalisation politique du conflit entre éleveurs et agriculteurs passant par l'utilisation de la rhétorique "envahisseurs versus agriculteurs".
    Keywords: Niger,Nigeria,Climate change,Agriculture,Migration
    Date: 2021–09
  12. By: Brüntrup, Michael
    Abstract: The corona crisis has taken the world captive. While there is broad discussion of the immediate risks of the pandemic, the same can rarely be said of the immense impact that the virus is expected to have on food security for those living in absolute poverty. This impact is resulting primarily from lockdown measures aimed at reducing infection rates and is already having a detrimental effect on all four pillars of food security through many cause-and-effect chains: Access to food will deteriorate tremendously if incomes fall and purchasing power dwindles, as most likely will food availability as a result of the difficulties and losses in terms of inputs, harvests, trade and transportation. The new instability could easily spread to other areas such as migration, security and statehood. Women especially are at risk, as are children in many cases. Different types of households are affected in very different ways. The first to be hit hardest by this crisis will be households with no connection to the agricultural sector, that is, the urban poor for the most part. Those that do have agricultural links could benefit from food transfers or (partially) migrate back to their home regions. The impact of this crisis on the food situation of smallholder subsistence households, which describes most of the world's poorest families, will be smaller in the short term at least (unlike in the case of natural crises). Larger agricultural enterprises capable of producing a reliable supply of food for the market should prove to be a pillar of stability during and after the crisis, provided the markets they serve do not suffer massive collapse. At overall level, the impact of the corona crisis on nutrition, alongside the design of lockdown measures, depends in particular on the degree of economic development, the extent to which the agricultural sector is separated from the rest of the economy and the scope that the state and prosperous sectors of society have and retain for making transfers. When it comes to balancing measures to tackle the coronavirus with those for economic stimulus, greater emphasis must be placed on the economy in poorer nations than in wealthier ones. Lockdown measures pose a risk to life and health in poor countries. It should be clearly stressed at this point that the "economy" refers in this context to the complex results chains on the way to food security and not simply to growth and jobs. Corona strategies in the poor South should thus look different to those in the global North and in emerging economies. For development cooperation, this means in the first instance assisting with the development of specific local strategies. Initiatives must flexibly address awareness-raising, health and hygiene in particular in the short term and, where necessary, include cash and food transfers and employment programmes. Economic structures and actors should be protected and supported in this process. Resilience in the face of the corona epidemic and other epidemics can be boosted in the medium term by promoting sustainable agricultural and food systems in particular. In so doing, it is vital to avoid neglecting resilience with regard to other types of crisis in which other cause-and-effect chains are operating in some cases and in which other relevant measures are thus required. For instance, climate-related crises often harm the local agricultural sector, and so access to the international agricultural market serves as a key means of protection. Research shows that employing a combination of economic diversity, reserve-building, open agricultural markets, insurance policies and social security systems is the most effective way to achieve resilience across the board.
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Mukherjee, Swayambhu; Kar, Saibal
    Abstract: This paper is an attempt to investigate empirically the major factors that influence choices between farming and non-farming activities as exclusive occupations, vis-à-vis diversification, across a large sample of rural households in India. A detailed survey of the extant literature reveals that the evidence on occupational choice among rural households as function of several factors is not too common. In addition, utilizing two subsequent rounds of micro-data from IHDS (India Human Development Survey) database for India is rare, thereby offering enough room for this specific inquiry.
    Keywords: Farm, Non-Farm, Occupation, Human Development
    JEL: D1 J4 O1
    Date: 2020–03–06
  14. By: Liang, Yuanning; Rudik, Ivan (Cornell University); Zou, Eric Yongchen
    Abstract: Species extinctions and ecological degradation are accelerating to a degree unprecedented in human history. Despite such trends, causal evidence for economic drivers of biodiversity loss and effective policy responses remains sparse. Here we study the relationship between economic production and biodiversity using a novel panel dataset that contains detailed and consistently reported information on the types and quantities of wildlife at thousands of locations across the United States between 1960 and 2015. Our research design exploits well- understood sources of change to local economic output – including those induced by fiscal shocks and environmental regulations – to identify how local economic production affects biodiversity outcomes. We find that economic production re- duces the total abundance of wildlife, reduces the count of distinct species, and changes the composition of species in a local ecosystem even holding the number of species constant. Our findings point toward environmental degradation as a potential culprit in the decline of biodiversity. We show that the adverse effect of economic production is mitigated by conservation, and by advances in emission abatement technologies that were spurred by stricter pollution regulations.
    Date: 2021–09–22
  15. By: Fernando Aragón (Simon Fraser University); Diego Restuccia (University of Toronto); Juan Pablo Rud (Royal Holloway, University of London)
    Abstract: This paper shows that using yields may not be informative of the relationship between farm size and productivity in the context of small-scale farming. This occurs because, in addition to productivity, yields pick up size-dependent market distortions and decreasing returns to scale. As a result, a positive relationship between farm productivity and land size may turn negative when using yields. We illustrate the empirical relevance of this issue with microdata from Uganda and show similar findings for Peru, Tanzania, and Bangladesh. In addition, we show that the dispersion in both measures of productivity across farms of similar size is so large that it renders farm size an ineffective indicator for policy targeting. Our findings stress the need to revisit the empirical evidence on the farm size-productivity relationship and its policy implications.
    Date: 2021–09
  16. By: Richard Berner; Robert Engle; Hyeyoon Jung
    Abstract: Climate change could impose systemic risks upon the financial sector, either via disruptions in economic activity resulting from the physical impacts of climate change or changes in policies as the economy transitions to a less carbon-intensive environment. We develop a stress testing procedure to test the resilience of financial institutions to climate-related risks. Specifically, we introduce a measure called CRISK, systemic climate risk, which is the expected capital shortfall of a financial institution in a climate stress scenario. We use the measure to study the climate-related risk exposure of large global banks in the collapse of fossil-fuel prices in 2020.
    Keywords: climate risk; financial stability; stress testing
    JEL: Q54 C53 G20
    Date: 2021–09–01
  17. By: Grabrucker, Katharina
    Abstract: Migration is a phenomenon of increasing global relevance as year by year a growing number of individuals is leaving their home driven by the pursuit to improve the well-being of their households through additional income. While the drivers of international migration and its effect on the left-behind households have been well researched, less focus has been put on the effects of internal, rural-urban migration (and its concomitant remittances). This paper analyses the net effects of remittances from internal, rural-urban migrants on selfemployment and on investments of the left-behind households by using a rich household level panel data set from Thailand and Vietnam. The findings indicate that individuals from households receiving remittances from internal, rural-urban migrants are less likely to be self-employed - both in Thailand and Vietnam. The channels through which remittances affect the labor supply of the receiving households cannot be determined with certainty, yet one of the potential reasons might be that left-behind household members need to compensate for the lost labor of the migrant who was previously engaged in farm activities. Moreover, the results show for some specifications lower investments of migrant households into farm and non-farm assets, while the expenditure on consumption is higher compared to households without migrants. This might be an indication that non-farm activities are less important for rural left-behind households, while remittances might be directly used to increase the consumption level - which might have been low before the migration.
    Keywords: Internal migration,Remittances,Rural non-farm enterprises,Thailand,Vietnam
    JEL: D22 F24 O15 Q12 R23
    Date: 2021
  18. By: Jens Gudmundsson (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Jens Leth Hougaard (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: In river systems, costly upstream pollution abatement creates downstream welfare gains. Absent adequate agreement on how to share the gains, upstream regions lack incentives to reduce pollution levels. We develop a model that makes explicit the impact of water quality on production benefits and suggest a solution for sharing the gains of optimal pollution abatement, namely the Shapley value of an underlying convex cooperative game. We provide a decentralized implementation through a smart contract to automate negotiations and payments. In effect, it ensures a socially optimal agreement supported by fair compensations to regions that turn to cleaner production from those that pollute.
    Keywords: River pollution, Decentralized mechanism, Shapley value, Water quality, Smart contracts
    JEL: C7 D47 D62 Q52 Q25
    Date: 2021–09
  19. By: Barry W. Brook; Jessie C. Buettel; Sanghyun Hong
    Abstract: Growth in the global human population this century will have momentous consequences for societies and the environment. Population growth has come with higher aggregate human welfare, but also climate change and biodiversity loss. Based on the well-established empirical association and plausible causal relationship between economic and population growth, we devised a novel method for forecasting population based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Although not mechanistically causal, our model is intuitive, transparent, replicable, and grounded on historical data. Our central finding is that a richer world is likely to be associated with a lower population, an effect especially pronounced in rapidly developing countries. In our baseline scenario, where GDP per capita follows a business-as-usual trajectory, global population is projected to reach 9.2 billion in 2050 and peak in 2062. With 50% higher annual economic growth, population peaks even earlier, in 2056, and declines to below 8 billion by the end of the century. Without any economic growth after 2020, however, the global population will grow to 9.9 billion in 2050 continue rising thereafter. Economic growth has the largest effect on low-income countries. The gap between the highest and lowest GDP scenarios reaches almost 4 billion by 2100. Education and family planning are important determinants of population growth, but economic growth is also likely to be a driver of slowing population growth by changing incentives for childbearing. Since economic growth could slow population growth, it will offset environmental impacts stemming from higher per-capita consumption of food, water, and energy, and work in tandem with technological innovation.
    Date: 2021–09
  20. By: Arnault Pachot (IP - Institut Pascal - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - INP Clermont Auvergne - Institut national polytechnique Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Adélaïde Albouy-Kissi; Benjamin Albouy-Kissi; Frédéric Chausse
    Abstract: We present a recommendation system to help rebuild sustainable production systems. Our multi-objective system synergizes the public and private actors of a territory. From know-how proximities in the Product Space, we suggest productive jumps for companies in a territory that consider the expectations of companies not only in terms of diversification but also in terms of the expectations of local authorities who are anxious to build sustainable production systems. We formalize a multi-stakeholder recommendation that is applied to the sustainability of a territorial economy and we propose the following new objectives to consider: (i) Economic growth, based on the concept of territorial economic complexity; (ii) Productive resilience, defined rigorously from the theory of dynamic systems; (iii) Food security and more generally basic necessities from an original approach based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs; (iv) The need to develop greener productions that respect the environment. The recommendation system that we propose incorporates territorial policy as a weighting of objectives. This "configuration" acts directly on the system to influence the recommended productive jumps. Each objective is defined to be computed directly from open data available for most countries without requiring external data.
    Keywords: Multi-Objective Recommender Systems,Supply-chain resilience,Sustainable production system
    Date: 2021–09–25
  21. By: Pascale Bazoche (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Nicolas Guinet (ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sylvaine Poret (ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sabrina Teyssier (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: A widespread transition towards diets based on plant proteins as substitutes for animal proteins would contribute to food system sustainability. Such changes in consumer food choices can be fostered by public policy. We conducted an online experiment to test whether providing consumers with information regarding the negative consequences of meat consumption on the environment or health increases the substitution of animal-based proteins with plant-based proteins. The consumers had to make three meal selections, the first without exposure to information and the latter two after exposure to environmental or health information. One group of consumers served as the control and received no information. The results show that half of the consumers chose meals with animal proteins in all three cases. The information intervention had a limited impact on the average consumer. However, a latent class analysis shows that the information intervention impacted a sub-sample of the consumers. Information policy does not appear to be sufficient for altering consumer behaviour regarding the consumption of animal proteins.
    Abstract: Une transition généralisée vers des régimes alimentaires basés sur les protéines végétales comme substituts des protéines animales contribuerait à la durabilité du système alimentaire. De tels changements dans les choix alimentaires des consommateurs peuvent être encouragés par les politiques publiques. Nous avons mené une expérimentation en ligne pour tester si l'information des consommateurs sur les conséquences négatives de la consommation de viande sur l'envi- ronnement ou la santé augmente la substitution des protéines d'origine animale par des protéines d'origine végétale. Les consommateurs devaient faire trois choix de repas, le premier sans exposition à l'information et les deux derniers après exposition à l'information environnementale ou sanitaire. Un groupe de consommateurs a servi de témoin et n'a reçu aucune information. Les résultats montrent que la moitié des consommateurs ont choisi des repas à base de protéines animales dans les trois cas. L'apport d'information a eu un impact limité sur le consommateur moyen. Cependant, une analyse de classe latente montre que l'intervention informationnelle a eu un impact sur un sous-échantillon de consommateurs. La politique d'information n'apparaît pas suffisante pour modifier le comportement des consommateurs vis-à-vis de la consommation de protéines animales.
    Keywords: Experiment,Information,Food consumption,Alternative proteins,Environment,Health,Expérience,Consommation alimentaire,Protéines alternatives,Environnement,Santé
    Date: 2021–09–21
  22. By: Schoderer, Mirja; Dombrowsky, Ines
    Abstract: This Briefing Paper presents one of six analyses of cross-sectoral coordination challenges that were conducted as part of the STEER research project and on which separate Briefing Papers are available. The extraction of minerals and metals comes with a large water footprint, both in terms of water needed for extraction itself and in terms of wastewater discharge and the potential pollution of water resources. Thus, coordination between the mining and water sectors is key. A number of instruments to that end have been devised, which aim to mitigate the negative impacts of mining on water resources and on water-resource dependent communities. Among these are environmental impact assessments (EIAs), stakeholder involvement within these processes and within river basin management, and payment schemes that incentivise wastewater treatment at the mine. Whether and how these instruments are implemented depends on the national, provincial and local context, since each instrument involves a number of preconditions. Assessing the effectiveness of these instruments thus requires a sound analysis of the governance system within which they operate. In this Briefing Paper, we focus on Mongolia as an example case study and look at stakeholder involvement and incentivising wastewater treatment as two key strategies to increase coordination. We assess how these strategies are translated into policies and how they are implemented on the ground in two adjacent river basins. In doing so, we pay particular attention to the human and financial capacities of lower-level administrative entities, as well as to the availability of water-related information, as essential prerequisites for effective natural resource governance. We find that the Mongolian governance system stipulates the implementation of stakeholder involvement through multiple processes, most importantly through River Basin Multi-Stakeholder Platforms (RB-MSPs) and community consultation within the EIA procedure. In practice, however, the RB-MSP in the study area has yet to diversify its membership from mostly lower-level administrative staff, and community consultations rarely take place. In terms of incentivising wastewater treatment, Mongolia passed amendments to its Water Pollution Fee Law in summer 2019 and is now working on implementation guidelines. Challenges here relate to the collection of data for a baseline on water quality and to guarantees for adequate sampling and analysis. This is tied to the limited human and financial capacity of lower-level administrative entities, which struggle to access or evaluate relevant data. We recommend that: * the diversity of stakeholders in RB-MSPs is increased to better include the private sector and civil society, with sensitivity to differences in socioeconomic standing to ensure equitable access to and deliberation within the platform; * the enacting of public consultations as part of EIAs is ensured and governmental procedures (i.e. mining licensing and approval of EIAs) are made more transparent and accountable; * public availability of water data is increased; * the Water Pollution Fee Law is implemented swiftly to provide incentives for the treatment of mining wastewater before discharge; * funding and institutional capacity development for lower-level administrative bodies are increased and funding for RB-MSPs is provided to enable them to fulfill their mandates.
    Date: 2020
  23. By: Christopher Ksoll; Rocco Macchiavello; Ameet Morjaria
    Abstract: Violent conflicts, particularly at election times in Africa, are a common cause of instability and economic disruption. This paper studies how firms react to electoral violence using the case of Kenyan flower exporters during the 2008 post-election violence as an example. The violence induced a large negative supply shock that reduced exports primarily through workers' absence and had heterogeneous effects: larger firms and those with direct contractual relationships in export markets suffered smaller production and losses of workers. On the demand side, global buyers were not able to shift sourcing to Kenyan exporters located in areas not directly affected by the violence nor to neighboring Ethiopian suppliers. Consistent with difficulties in insuring against supply-chain risk disruptions caused by electoral violence, firms in direct contractual relationships ramp up shipments just before the subsequent 2013 presidential election to mitigate risk.
    JEL: D22 D74 F14 O13 Q13
    Date: 2021–09
  24. By: Abreu I.; Mesias F. J.; Ramajo; J
    Abstract: This paper proposes the development of an index to assess rural development based on a set of 25 demographic, economic, environmental, and social welfare indicators previously selected through a Delphi approach. Three widely accepted aggregation methods were then tested: a mixed arithmetic/geometric mean without weightings for each indicator; a weighted arithmetic mean using the weights previously generated by the Delphi panel and an aggregation through Principal Component Analysis. These three methodologies were later applied to 9 Portuguese NUTS III regions, and the results were presented to a group of experts in rural development who indicated which of the three forms of aggregation best measured the levels of rural development of the different territories. Finally, it was concluded that the unweighted arithmetic/geometric mean was the most accurate methodology for aggregating indicators to create a Rural Development Index.
    Date: 2021–09
  25. By: Stuart-Hill, Sabine; Lukat, Evelyn; Pringle, Catherine; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia
    Abstract: This Briefing Paper presents one of six analyses of cross-sectoral coordination challenges that were conducted as part of the STEER research project and on which separate Briefing Papers are available. South Africa's water legislation is internationally recognised for its ambitious implementation of integrated water resource management (IWRM). IWRM is a concept that was developed to address complex water challenges by considering the connections between land and water, and widening the knowledge space to other water-using sectors and actors. Stakeholder participation and coordination - key aspects to IWRM - represent a network governance style, which contrasts with the hierarchical governance style that most governments embody. We find three challenges regarding the implementation of IWRM in South Africa: Firstly, a dual governance system: The landscape of South African organisations relevant to catchment management consists of organisations from the western administrative and traditional governance systems. The western administrative governance system includes organisations such as the Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS), which is mandated to manage water resources, and the Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs, which mediates with traditional authorities regarding various issues, including land management. Currently, these organisations do not cooperate on land-water issues as needed. Secondly, a lacking implementation of water legislation: The South African National Water Act of 1998 outlines Catchment Management Agencies (CMA) as network governance structures that should manage the catchment at a local scale and include all water users. However, after more than 20 years, these structures have not been implemented. This is also due to a conflict in governance styles between the stakeholder-integrating CMAs and the expert-driven, hierarchical DWS. Thirdly, conflict between governance styles: In the absence of the CMA, several informal or non-statutory network governance structures have developed in the uMngeni catchment (e.g. Catchment Management Forums and the uMngeni Ecological Infrastructure Partnership). In several instances, actors representing these structures and government representatives are in conflict over the different approaches to knowledge management and decision-making; these differences are rooted in their respective governance styles. In the last few years, the DWS started the process of a Catchment Management Strategy, which requires stakeholders to participate and formulate their needs. This process could become a mediating tool for the conflicts that arise between the actors when using the different hierarchical and network governance styles. We propose the following recommendations: 1. Integrating traditional authorities into planning processes in a culturally sensitive way is crucial in supporting IWRM. 2. Network structures - designed by government or self-organised - may provide the social capital needed at the local and regional governance levels to implement IWRM. 3. In order to mediate between the existing hierarchical and network governance knowledge, management strategies should represent a hybrid governance style.
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Tasker, Alex
    Abstract: This article characterises informal knowledge creation and co-creation between development and pastoralist actors, drawing on qualitative data gathered during an in-depth case study in Northern Kenya. Using thematic analysis, this article identifies three intersecting narratives: knowledge and exchange, barriers and drivers, and risk and uncertainty. These concepts are interpreted using wider literature on knowledge dynamics and co-creation to evaluate the suitability of existing analytical frameworks for further research on pastoralist development. The study results highlight the value of cross-cultural informal knowledge co-creation for pastoralist development, and the need for more robust future research.
    Date: 2021–09–18
  27. By: Victoria E. Agwam; Pablo Azar; Kyra Frye
    Abstract: While the shocks from COVID-19 were concentrated in a handful of contact-intensive industries, they had rippling effects throughout the economy, which culminated in a considerable decline in U.S. GDP. In this post, we estimate how much of the fall in U.S. GDP during the pandemic was driven by spillover effects from the productivity losses of contact-intensive industries.
    Keywords: pandemic; COVID-19; productivity; supply chains
    JEL: E2
    Date: 2021–09–27

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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.