nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2021‒08‒23
thirty papers chosen by
Angelo Zago
Università degli Studi di Verona

  1. The Recent Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in China By Ault, Toby; Carrillo, Carlos; Chambers, Robert G.; He, Yurou; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel; Sheng, Yu
  2. Agricultural Growth Diagnostics: Identifying the Binding Constraints and Policy Remedies for Bihar, India By Elumalai Kannan; Sanjib Pohit
  3. Risk Assessment of Hemp Growing – A Case Study By Cadot, Julien; Kayser, Patrick
  4. Mechanizing Agriculture By Julieta Caunedo; Namrata Kala
  5. Adoption of ICTs in Agri-Food Logistics: Potential and Limitations for Supply Chain Sustainability By Cédric Vernier; Denis Loeillet; Rallou Thomopoulos; Catherine Macombe
  6. Effects of Payments on the Riskiness of Returns to Cellulosic Ethanol Feedstock Production By Majeed, Fahd; Khanna, Madhu; Miao, Ruiqing; Blanc Betes, Elena; Hudiburg, Tara; DeLucia, Evan
  7. Geographical indications and local development: the strength of territorial embeddedness By Crescenzi, Riccardo; De Filippis, Fabrizio; Giua, Mara; Vaquero Pineiro, Cristina
  8. Knowledge for a warmer world: a patent analysis of climate change adaptation technologies By Kerstin H\"otte; Su Jung Jee; Sugandha Srivastav
  9. Optimizing renovation and rehabilitation programs in Cocoa and Coffee Agroforestry Systems By Peguero, Felipe; Somarriba, Eduardo; Solano-Cordoba, Moises E.; Alvarez, Diana; Zapata, Samuel D.; Cerda B., Rolando H.; Sinclair, Fergus
  10. Chinese consumers' preferences for imported beef products: Does the type of cut matter? By Kang, Qi; Carpio, Carlos E.; Garcia, Manuel De Jesus; Wang, Chenggang; Boonsaeng, Tullaya; Hudson, Darren
  11. With great power comes great responsibility: The EU and the Black Sea Region take leadership of the global wheat market By Ahmed, Osama; Glauben, Thomas; Heigermoser, Maximilian; Prehn, Sören
  12. No country is an island. International cooperation and climate change. By Ferrari Massimo,; Pagliari Maria Sole,
  13. Drivers of smallholder oil palm expansion on peat swamp forest in Indonesia By Zhao, Jing; Cochrane, Mark; Lee, Janice; Elmore, Andrew; Numata, Izaya; Zhang, Xin
  14. An Empirical Analysis of Pricing in the U.S. Broiler and Pork Industries By Bolotova, Yuliya V.
  15. Land Ceiling Legislations, Land Acquisition and De-industrialisation: Theory and Evidence from the Indian States By Pal, Sarmistha; Chowdhury, Prabal Roy; Saher, Zoya
  16. Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on household meal sharing and wild caught animal consumption in China By Shu, Yiheng; Chang, Qing; Hu, Wuyang; Li, Jian; Qing, Ping; Chen, Xuan
  17. Impact of fertilizer policy on cereal production: Empirical Evidence of patronage and leakages in a Developing economy, A case of Nigeria By Olaoye, Ibukun James; Ayinde, Opeyemi E.; Ayinde, Kayode; Ajewole, Oluwafemi O.; Oloyede, Adeola
  18. Does Violent Conflict Affect Labor Supply of Farm Households? The Nigerian Experience By Chiwuzulum Odozi, John; Uwaifo Oyelere, Ruth
  19. Completing the data: maximum likelihood estimation of data suppressions in the Census of Agriculture By Yi, Jing; Cohen, Samantha; Rehkamp, Sarah; Gomez, Miguel I.; Ge, Houtian; Jaromczyk, Jerzy
  20. What do you think about climate change? By Donatella Baiardi
  21. Results of the North Dakota Land Valuation Model for the 2021 Agricultural Real Estate Assessment By Haugen, Ronald
  22. Green Technology Policies versus Carbon Pricing: An Intergenerational Perspective By Sebastian Rausch; Hidemichi Yonezawa
  23. Economists' erroneous estimates of damages from climate change By Stephen Keen; Timothy M. Lenton; Antoine Godin; Devrim Yilmaz; Matheus Grasselli; Timothy J. Garrett
  24. The Impact of Ethiopia's Direct Seed Marketing Approach on Smallholders' Access to Seeds, Productivity, and Commercialization By Mekonnen, Dawit K.; Abate, Gashaw; Yimam, Seid; Benfica, Rui; Spielman, David J.; Place, Frank
  25. Economic Development, the Nutrition Trap and Metabolic Disease By Nancy Luke; Kaivan Munshi; Anu Oommen; Swapnil Singh
  26. Climate Change Uncertainty Spillover in the Macroeconomy By Michael Barnett; William Brock; Lars P. Hansen
  27. Effects of Welfare Reform on Household Food Insecurity Across Generations By Hope Corman; Dhaval M. Dave; Nancy Reichman; Ofira Schwartz-Soicher
  28. Identifying Consumer Seafood Preferences: Opportunities for U.S. Producers to Serve Domestic Demand and Replace Imports By Athnos, April; Valle De Souza, Simone; Quagrainie, Kwamena K.; Etumnu, Chinonso E.; Knudson, William A.; Kinnunen, Ronald; Hitchens, Paul B.
  29. Exploring Spatial Price Relationships: The Case of African Swine Fever in China By Michael S. Delgado; Meilin Ma; H. Holly Wang
  30. Consumer Responses to Firms’ Voluntary Disclosure of Information: Evidence from Calorie Labeling by Starbucks By Rosemary Avery; John Cawley; Julia Eddelbuettel; Matthew D. Eisenberg; Charlie Mann; Alan D. Mathios

  1. By: Ault, Toby; Carrillo, Carlos; Chambers, Robert G.; He, Yurou; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel; Sheng, Yu
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Productivity Analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312864&r=
  2. By: Elumalai Kannan; Sanjib Pohit
    Abstract: Agriculture plays a significant role in economic development of the underdeveloped region. Multiple factors influence the performance of agricultural sector but a few of these have a strong bearing on its growth. We develop a growth diagnostics framework for agricultural sector in Bihar located in eastern India to identify the most binding constraints. Our results show that poor functioning of agricultural markets and low level of crop diversification are the important reasons for lower agricultural growth in Bihar. Rise in the level of instability in the prices of agricultural produces indicates a weak price transmission across the markets even after repealing the agricultural produce market committee act. Poor market linkages and non-functioning producer collectives at village level affect the farmers motivation for undertaking crop diversification. Our policy suggestions include state provision of basic market infrastructure to attract private investment in agricultural marketing, strengthening the farmer producer organisations, and a comprehensive policy on crop diversification.
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03912&r=
  3. By: Cadot, Julien; Kayser, Patrick
    Abstract: The goal of this case study is to highlight the sequence of decisions related to the production of hemp during the 2019 season. Hemp was seen as a tremendous opportunity for farmers after the legalization of hemp production in the 2018 Farm Bill. The newness of the production techniques and supply chain implies uncertainty in all the common sources of risk found in agriculture: production risk, market or price risk, financial risk, institutional risk and human resource risk (Hoag, 2010). Based on the experience of a farmer primarily specialized in the production and direct selling of organic vegetables in Southwest Virginia, the story illustrates how decisions are made in a context of uncertainty. An active reading of the narrative, information, and data delivered in figures and exhibits allows a student to develop a comprehensive approach to risk management in the context of specialty crop production. We recommend the student use the case study to create a “risk management dashboard” with matrices for farmers considering hemp production as a potential enterprise.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Risk and Uncertainty
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313137&r=
  4. By: Julieta Caunedo; Namrata Kala
    Abstract: Economic activity in developing countries is labor-intensive, low-scale, and family run, with substantial family managerial time spent supervising hired labor. We use a randomized control trial that subsidizes access to rental equipment markets to study the impact of the adoption of mechanized practices on labor demand, productivity and managerial span of control. The intervention induces greater mechanization in the upstream production stage, and labor savings concentrated in downstream, non-mechanized stages. The reduction in worker supervision needs increases the span of control and allows households to increase non-agricultural income. We use the experimental elasticities to estimate a structural model where farmers make labor supply decisions in the family enterprise and outside of it. The consumption-equivalent welfare from the intervention amounts to 0.9%. The model provides structural estimates of the marginal return to capital at 8.8%, and the shadow value of family labor, 20% below their outside option in non-agriculture.
    JEL: D13 D2 O13 O53 Q0
    Date: 2021–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29061&r=
  5. By: Cédric Vernier (UMR ITAP - Information – Technologies – Analyse Environnementale – Procédés Agricoles - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Denis Loeillet (UR GECO - Fonctionnement écologique et gestion durable des agrosystèmes bananiers et ananas - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Rallou Thomopoulos (UMR IATE - Ingénierie des Agro-polymères et Technologies Émergentes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - UM - Université de Montpellier - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Catherine Macombe (UMR ITAP - Information – Technologies – Analyse Environnementale – Procédés Agricoles - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: A major challenge of Sustainable Development Goal 12 "Responsible Consumption and Production" is to reduce food losses along production and supply chains. This is particularly critical for fresh food products, due to their perishable and fragile nature, which makes the coordination of the actors all the more crucial to avoid wastes and losses. The rise of new technologies, referred to as "Industry 4.0" powered by the internet of things, big data analytics and artificial intelligence, could bring new solutions to meet these needs. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) allow for frequent exchanges of huge amounts of information between actors in the agrofood chains to coordinate their activities. The aim of the chapter is to provide a state-of-the-art analysis on ICTs used in agrofood supply chains, with a special focus on the case of fresh fruits and vegetables, to analyze the potential and weaknesses which exist in different forms of supply chains for ICTs becoming a "resource" (precious, rare, non-imitable, and nonsubstitutable) prospect and to suggest promising ICTs in this context.
    Keywords: food sustainability,food supply chain,innovation in food,food waste and SDGs,ICTs,objectifs de développement durable
    Date: 2021–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03280502&r=
  6. By: Majeed, Fahd; Khanna, Madhu; Miao, Ruiqing; Blanc Betes, Elena; Hudiburg, Tara; DeLucia, Evan
    Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty, Environmental Economics and Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312883&r=
  7. By: Crescenzi, Riccardo; De Filippis, Fabrizio; Giua, Mara; Vaquero Pineiro, Cristina
    Abstract: Can Geographical Indications (GIs) promote local economic development in rural areas? This paper explores the impact of GIs that identify and endorse agri-food products which are strictly embedded within the territory from which they originate. Examining Italian wine protected by GIs through an innovative dataset and by means of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences models make it possible to compare the local economic development trajectories of rural municipalities afforded GIs with the correspondent dynamics of a counterfactual group of similar municipalities without GI status since 1951. Rural municipalities with GIs experience population growth and economic reorganization towards non-farming sectors, which frequently involve higher value-added activities.
    Keywords: geographical Indications;; rural development; EU policies; local development; propensity score matching; difference in differences; 639633-MASSIVE-ERC-2014-STG); H2020 project BATModel; Taylor & Francis deal
    JEL: O18 Q18 R10
    Date: 2021–07–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110767&r=
  8. By: Kerstin H\"otte; Su Jung Jee; Sugandha Srivastav
    Abstract: Technologies help adapt to climate change but little systematic research about these technologies and their interaction with mitigation exists. We identify climate change adaptation technologies (CCATs) in US patent data to study the technological frontier in adaptation. We find that patenting in CCATs was roughly stagnant over the past decades. CCATs form two main clusters: (1) science-intensive CCATs related to agriculture, health and monitoring technologies; and (2) engineering-based for coastal, water and infrastructure adaptation. 25% of CCATs help in climate change mitigation, and we infer that synergies can be maximized through well designed policy. CCATs rely more on public R&D than other inventions, and CCAT patents are citing more science over time, indicating a growing relevance of research as a knowledge source for innovation. Policymakers can use these results to get greater clarity on where R&D support for CCATs can be directed.
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03722&r=
  9. By: Peguero, Felipe; Somarriba, Eduardo; Solano-Cordoba, Moises E.; Alvarez, Diana; Zapata, Samuel D.; Cerda B., Rolando H.; Sinclair, Fergus
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Production Economics
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312634&r=
  10. By: Kang, Qi; Carpio, Carlos E.; Garcia, Manuel De Jesus; Wang, Chenggang; Boonsaeng, Tullaya; Hudson, Darren
    Keywords: Marketing, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312811&r=
  11. By: Ahmed, Osama; Glauben, Thomas; Heigermoser, Maximilian; Prehn, Sören
    Abstract: Income growth, changing consumer preferences and technological progress are having a transformative effect on global food trade and, in particular, wheat markets. This is evidenced by two main developments: First, the growing demand for wheat in Asia and Africa is increasingly being met by the European Union (EU) and the Black Sea Region (BSR), which have replaced the United States (US) as the major players on the global wheat market. Second, and as a consequence, the Euronext futures market, which reflects the supply and demand fundamentals in the EU and the BSR, is becoming more important for international wheat price discovery. In light of these two changes, the EU and the BSR must take more responsibility for ensuring global food security and combating hunger and malnutrition. To achieve this, greater international cooperation is required, in particular between the big Western and Eastern economic powers. Unrestricted international trade is vital to ensure sufficient supply of food worldwide, while escalating economic sanctions and countersanctions endanger food security, especially in importdependent regions. Public debate on trade and economic sanctions must therefore be more objective and better take into account both regional and global needs.
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamopb:41e&r=
  12. By: Ferrari Massimo,; Pagliari Maria Sole,
    Abstract: In this paper we explore the cross-country implications of climate-related mitigation policies. Specifically, we set up a two-country, two-sector (brown vs green) DSGE model with negative production externalities stemming from carbon-dioxide emissions. We estimate the model using US and euro area data and we characterize welfare-enhancing equilibria under alternative containment policies. Three main policy implications emerge: i) fiscal policy should focus on reducing emissions by levying taxes on polluting production activities; ii) monetary policy should look through environmental objectives while standing ready to support the economy when the costs of the environmental transition materialize; iii) international cooperation is crucial to obtain a Pareto improvement under the proposed policies. We finally find that the objective of reducing emissions by 50%, which is compatible with the Paris agreement's goal of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius with respect to pre-industrial levels, would not be attainable in absence of international cooperation even with the support of monetary policy.
    Keywords: DSGE model, open-economy macroeconomics, optimal policies, climate modelling.
    JEL: F42 E50 E60 F30
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:815&r=
  13. By: Zhao, Jing; Cochrane, Mark; Lee, Janice; Elmore, Andrew; Numata, Izaya; Zhang, Xin
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Production Economics
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312773&r=
  14. By: Bolotova, Yuliya V.
    Abstract: During the recent decade a group of large meat processors in the U.S. broiler and pork industries implemented a series of production control practices at various stages of the broiler and pork supply chains. Direct and indirect buyers of broilers and pork filed class action antitrust lawsuits alleging that by implementing these production control practices the meat processors engaged in unlawful conspiracies with the purpose of fixing, increasing, and stabilizing prices of broilers and pork and thus violated Section 1 of the Sherman Act. The research presented in the paper conducts an econometric analysis of price behavior in the U.S. broiler and pork industries during the periods of alleged price-fixing cartels and prior (more competitive) periods. The empirical evidence presented in the paper suggests the following. The wholesale pricing of pork by pork processors is consistent with an oligopoly pricing during both the pre-cartel and cartel periods. The retail pricing of pork by food retailers is consistent with a perfectly competitive pricing during both analyzed periods. The retail pricing of broilers by food retailers is consistent with a monopoly pricing during the pre-cartel period and with a monopoly and an oligopoly pricing during the cartel period.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313133&r=
  15. By: Pal, Sarmistha (University of Surrey); Chowdhury, Prabal Roy (Indian Statistical Institute); Saher, Zoya (University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: We examine the impact of legislated land ceiling size on capital investment and industrialisation in the Indian states. India's land ceiling legislations of 1960s and 1970s imposed a ceiling on maximum land holdings and redistributed above-ceiling lands. These ceiling legislations, effectively implemented or not, had increased land fragmentation and increased transactions costs of acquiring land for both strategic and non-strategic reasons. States with smaller ceiling size are thus likely to have (i) lower capital investment; (ii) less factories and lower industrialisation too. Ceteris paribus, estimates of both relative (post-1971 ceiling legislations relative to pre-1971 ones) and aggregate effects of legislated ceiling size lend support to these hypotheses, after eliminating competing explanations. These results offer insights about how to reduce transactions costs of land acquisition, policies that we claim are also applicable beyond India.
    Keywords: land reform, land acquisition, land ceiling size, transaction costs of land acquisition, investment in capital, industrialisation, India
    JEL: H70 K11 L38 O14 Q15
    Date: 2021–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14624&r=
  16. By: Shu, Yiheng; Chang, Qing; Hu, Wuyang; Li, Jian; Qing, Ping; Chen, Xuan
    Keywords: Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312757&r=
  17. By: Olaoye, Ibukun James; Ayinde, Opeyemi E.; Ayinde, Kayode; Ajewole, Oluwafemi O.; Oloyede, Adeola
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312752&r=
  18. By: Chiwuzulum Odozi, John (University of Ibadan, Nigeria); Uwaifo Oyelere, Ruth (Agnes Scott College)
    Abstract: Nigeria has experienced bouts of violent conflict in different regions since its independence leading to significant loss of life. In this paper, we explore the average effect of exposure to violent conflict generally on labor supply in agriculture. Using a nationally representative panel dataset for Nigeria from 2010-2015, in combination with armed conflict data, we estimate the average effect of exposure to violent conflict on a household's farm labor supply. Our findings suggest that on average, exposure to violent conflict significantly reduces total family labor supply hours in agriculture. We also find that the decline in family labor supply is driven by a significant decline in the household head's total number of hours on the farm.
    Keywords: ethno-religious conflict, Boko Haram, farm households, farmer-herdsmen conflict, labor supply, Nigeria, Niger-delta conflict, violent conflict
    JEL: Q10 Q12 O1 D74
    Date: 2021–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14579&r=
  19. By: Yi, Jing; Cohen, Samantha; Rehkamp, Sarah; Gomez, Miguel I.; Ge, Houtian; Jaromczyk, Jerzy
    Keywords: Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Agribusiness, Marketing
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312901&r=
  20. By: Donatella Baiardi (Center for European Studies, University of Parma, Italy; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)
    Abstract: To answer this question, this paper reviews the huge and growing body of empirical literature on climate change awareness, and summarizes insights emerging from a critical review of about 140 papers. In particular, this survey provides (i) a historical overview of climate change awareness worldwide, (ii) a guide to the most widely used datasets, with a peculiar attention to the question wording employed to measuring climate change awareness when the analysis is performed at individual level; (iii) a detailed review of the main socio-economic and climatological determinants of climate change awareness, such as age, gender, education, political values, experience of extreme weather conditions, social and institutional trust and the stage of development of the country where people live; and (iv) a summary of the main implications of these findings in terms of public policy responses.
    Keywords: climate change awareness, individual perceptions, question wording, socio-economic determinants, policy implications
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:21-16&r=
  21. By: Haugen, Ronald
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Land Economics/Use
    Date: 2021–08–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:313163&r=
  22. By: Sebastian Rausch (ZEW Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany, Department of Economics, Heidelberg University, Germany, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA); Hidemichi Yonezawa (Division for Energy and Environmental Economics at the Research Department at Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Technology policy is the most widespread form of climate policy and is often preferred over seemingly efficient carbon pricing. We propose a new explanation for this observation: gains that predominantly accrue to households with large capital assets and that influence majority decisions in favor of technology policy. We study climate policy choices in an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous energy technologies and distortionary income taxation. Compared to carbon pricing, green technology policy leads to a pronounced capital subsidy effect that benefits most of the current generations but burdens future generations. Based on majority voting which disregards future generations, green technology policies are favored over a carbon tax. Smart “polluter-pays” financing of green technology policies enables obtaining the support of current generations while realizing efficiency gains for future generations.
    Keywords: Climate Policy; Green Technology Policy; Carbon Pricing; Overlapping Generations; Intergenerational Distribution; Social Welfare; General Equilibrium
    JEL: Q54 Q48 Q58 D58 H23
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:21-362&r=
  23. By: Stephen Keen; Timothy M. Lenton; Antoine Godin; Devrim Yilmaz; Matheus Grasselli; Timothy J. Garrett
    Abstract: Economists have predicted that damages from global warming will be as low as 2.1% of global economic production for a 3$^\circ$C rise in global average surface temperature, and 7.9% for a 6$^\circ$C rise. Such relatively trivial estimates of economic damages -- when these economists otherwise assume that human economic productivity will be an order of magnitude higher than today -- contrast strongly with predictions made by scientists of significantly reduced human habitability from climate change. Nonetheless, the coupled economic and climate models used to make such predictions have been influential in the international climate change debate and policy prescriptions. Here we review the empirical work done by economists and show that it severely underestimates damages from climate change by committing several methodological errors, including neglecting tipping points, and assuming that economic sectors not exposed to the weather are insulated from climate change. Most fundamentally, the influential Integrated Assessment Model DICE is shown to be incapable of generating an economic collapse, regardless of the level of damages. Given these flaws, economists' empirical estimates of economic damages from global warming should be rejected as unscientific, and models that have been calibrated to them, such as DICE, should not be used to evaluate economic risks from climate change, or in the development of policy to attenuate damages.
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07847&r=
  24. By: Mekonnen, Dawit K.; Abate, Gashaw; Yimam, Seid; Benfica, Rui; Spielman, David J.; Place, Frank
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, International Development, Production Economics
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312925&r=
  25. By: Nancy Luke; Kaivan Munshi; Anu Oommen; Swapnil Singh
    Abstract: This research provides a single explanation for: (i) the persistence of malnutrition and (ii) the increased prevalence of metabolic disease (diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease) among normal weight individuals with economic development. Our model is based on a set point for BMI or bodyweight that is adapted to conditions of scarcity in the pre-modern economy, but which subsequently fails to adjust to rapid economic change. During the process of development, some individuals thus remain at their low-BMI set point, despite the increase in their consumption, while others who have escaped the nutrition trap (but are not necessarily overweight) are at increased risk of metabolic disease. The model and the underlying biological mechanism, which are validated with micro-data from India, Indonesia and Ghana can jointly explain inter-regional (Asia-Africa) differences in nutritional status and the prevalence of diabetes.
    JEL: I15 O20
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29132&r=
  26. By: Michael Barnett; William Brock; Lars P. Hansen
    Abstract: The design and conduct of climate change policy necessarily confronts uncertainty along multiple fronts. We explore the consequences of ambiguity over various sources and configurations of models that impact how economic opportunities could be damaged in the future. We appeal to decision theory under risk, model ambiguity and misspecification concerns to provide an economically motivated approach to uncertainty quantification. We show how this approach reduces the many facets of uncertainty into a low dimensional characterization that depends on the uncertainty aversion of a decision-maker or fictitious social planner. In our computations, we take inventory of three alternative channels of uncertainty and provide a novel way to assess them. These include i) carbon dynamics that capture how carbon emissions impact atmospheric carbon in future time periods; ii) temperature dynamics that depict how atmospheric carbon alters temperature in future time periods; iii) damage functions that quantify how temperature changes diminish economic opportunities. We appeal to geoscientific modeling to quantify the first two channels. We show how these uncertainty sources interact for a social planner looking to design a prudent approach to the social pricing of carbon emissions.
    JEL: D81 E61 G12 G18 Q51 Q54
    Date: 2021–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29064&r=
  27. By: Hope Corman; Dhaval M. Dave; Nancy Reichman; Ofira Schwartz-Soicher
    Abstract: This study estimated the effects of welfare reform in the 1990s, which permanently restructured and contracted the cash assistance system in the U.S., on food insecurity—a fundamental form of hardship—of the next generation of households. An implicit goal underlying welfare reform was the disruption of an assumed intergenerational transmission of disadvantage; however, little is known about the effects of welfare reform on the well-being of the next generation. Using intergenerational data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a variation on a difference-in-differences framework, this study exploits 3 sources of variation in childhood exposure to welfare reform: (1) risk of exposure across birth cohorts; (2) variation of exposure within cohorts because different states implemented welfare reform in different years; and (3) variation between individuals with the same exposure who were more likely and less likely to rely on welfare. We found that exposure to welfare reform led to decreases in food insecurity of the next generation of households, by about 10% for a 5-year increase in exposure, with stronger effects for women, individuals exposed for longer durations during childhood, individuals exposed in early childhood (0-5 years), and individuals whose mothers had a high school education (versus less).
    JEL: H53 I14 I3 I38
    Date: 2021–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29054&r=
  28. By: Athnos, April; Valle De Souza, Simone; Quagrainie, Kwamena K.; Etumnu, Chinonso E.; Knudson, William A.; Kinnunen, Ronald; Hitchens, Paul B.
    Keywords: Marketing, Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Agribusiness
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312898&r=
  29. By: Michael S. Delgado; Meilin Ma; H. Holly Wang
    Abstract: We use a temporary ban on inter-province shipping of live hogs induced by the 2018 outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China as a natural experiment to study spatial mechanisms behind the dynamics of market integration. With a unique dataset of weekly provincial hog prices, we employ a novel spatial network model to estimate the strength of price co-movement across provinces pre and post the ban. Results indicate that, in the highly integrated national market prior to the ban, longer geographical distances between two provinces did not weaken the strength of their price linkage. The ban broken down spatial integration. Longer distances became a significant obstacle to spatial price linkage in the post-ban periods, implying faster re-integration of hog prices between proximate provinces than remote ones. The negative effect of distance can be rationalized by the interplay between arbitrage opportunities and imperfect information. Our findings highlight information transparency as a key to market integration post shipping bans used to curb animal pandemics like ASF.
    JEL: C22 C23 Q18
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29141&r=
  30. By: Rosemary Avery; John Cawley; Julia Eddelbuettel; Matthew D. Eisenberg; Charlie Mann; Alan D. Mathios
    Abstract: This paper estimates the impact on consumer behavior of a firm’s voluntary disclosure of information. Specifically, we study the impact of Starbucks’ disclosure of calorie information on its menu boards in June 2013. Using data on over 250,000 consumers’ visits to specific restaurant chains, we estimate difference-in-difference models that compare the change in the probability that consumers recently visited Starbucks to the change in the probability that they recently visited a similar chain that did not voluntarily disclose: Dunkin Donuts. Estimates from difference-in-differences models indicate that we cannot reject the null hypothesis that Starbucks’ disclosure of calorie information had no impact on the probability that consumers patronized Starbucks in the past month. However, we find evidence of a transitory negative impact on the probability of visits the first year after disclosure, and evidence that disclosure reduced the probability of visits by men. These results are useful for understanding how consumers respond to the voluntary disclosure of information, a decision faced by many firms.
    JEL: D22 D8 I12 L2 L83
    Date: 2021–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29080&r=

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