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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2021‒04‒26
twenty-two papers chosen by |
| By: | Khanal, Uttam; Wilson, Clevo; Rahman, Sanzidur; Lee, Boon; Hoang, Vincent |
| Abstract: | Climate change is likely to worsen poverty, and agriculture-dependent groups and poorest countries are at the greatest risk. Farmers’ have begun developing and implementing climate change adaptations. This study investigates the extent to which climate change adaptations by smallholder farmers have the potential to contribute to the UN’s sustainable development goals of no poverty (SDG 1) and zero hunger (SDG 2). To this end, the study measures the impact of such adaptations on food production using farm-level survey data from Nepal. We utilize a matching technique and stochastic production frontier model to examine the productivity and efficiency of farmers. Results reveal that the group of farmers adopting adaptations exhibit higher levels of productivity and technical efficiency in food production as compared to the non-adopters. It is evident from the results that policy makers should encourage farming households in climate change adaptations, which have the potential to enhance farmers’ productivity and efficiency in agriculture thereby contributing to two of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of eradicating hunger and poverty (SDG’s target indicators 2.3). |
| Keywords: | Adaptation; food security; production frontier; selection bias; sustainable development goals; Nepal. |
| JEL: | O13 Q15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106917&r= |
| By: | Faruq-Uz-Zaman, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh has achieved a tremendous success in food production in last few decades amidst challenges of land degradation, land use changes and climate effect. In spite of the increasing trend of yields of crops, there still remain some challenges to meet the growing needs due to increase in population and loss of land to development activities. This study aims to identify the rate of contributions or economics of factors of crop production in Bangladesh. Cobb-Douglas production function has been applied in this study of crop production using a number of production factors within the broad terms land, labour and capital. Secondary data, representing factors of production, have been selected based on literature reviews so that they can be appropriate for this study. Data of crop production have been considered as dependent variables, whereas, land area coverage for agricultural production, labour employed in agriculture, agricultural household expenditure, fertilizer applied and irrigation coverage have been considered as independent variables. Land and labour is negatively correlated with crop production, whereas, fertilizer is positively correlated. Crop production which shows decreasing return to scale deserves the adoption of new technology and good agricultural management practices. |
| Date: | 2021–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:kxaym&r= |
| By: | Barrett, Christopher B.; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel; Phan, Trinh |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the feedbacks between structural transformation and agriculture, on the one hand, and climate and the natural environment, on the other. The longstanding, dominant economic development narrative largely ignores nature’s influence on factor productivity and stocks, even as it increasingly illustrates how agricultural technological change and economic growth affect nature. We articulate some of the missing linkages and pose a range of policy research questions worth exploration concerning structural transformation and the complex feedback among agriculture, nature, and economic growth processes, especially in the low-income agrarian nations of the Global South. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2021–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cuaepw:309951&r= |
| By: | Ubilava, David; Atalay, Kadir |
| Abstract: | Commodity price shocks can exacerbate conflict in low income countries with weak institutions. In these countries, agriculture usually is a key source of employment and income. A unique feature of agricultural income is its seasonality, which manifests in harvest-time windfalls. Conflict, therefore, can be seasonal as well. We combine temporal variation in international cereal prices at monthly frequency with spatial variation in cereal crop production and harvest seasons at the one-degree grid cell level to investigate the effect of year–on–year growth in cereal prices on conflict across Africa. We find that in the cropland, conflict is more likely during the first three months after a harvest, when the expected value of spoils to be appropriated is highest. During this period, a one–standard–deviation increase in prices can result in a more than three–percent increase in conflict incidents. We also find that among potential perpetrators, political militias are the most likely culprits behind seasonal conflict in the cropland of Africa. This study offers an important nuance to the growing literature aimed at investigating the economic causes of conflict in fragile states with weak institutions. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Cereals; Conflict; Prices; Seasonality |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2021-03&r= |
| By: | José Serrano (CITERES - Cités, Territoires, Environnement et Sociétés - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Céline Tanguay (CITERES - Cités, Territoires, Environnement et Sociétés - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-Louis Yengué (RURALITES - RURALITES - Université de Poitiers, FED 4229 - Fédération Territoires - Université de Poitiers - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The 2014 law on the future of agriculture, food, and forestry aims to promote the relocation of food production to the local level by emphasizing the key role of local actors. It proposes territorial food projects as a public tool facilitating the coordination of their action within a project-based approach. Therefore, the law gives local authorities a key role in the governance of stakeholders. In this article, the authors look at a food relocalization experiment by studying the Tours-Métropole-Val-de-Loire territorial food project. They demonstrate that Tours-Métropole adopted a "technicist" approach that preserved the predominance of traditional supply chain actors in the local food system. |
| Abstract: | La loi d'avenir pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et la forêt de 2014 vise à favoriser une relocalisation de la production alimentaire à l'échelle locale en mettant l'accent sur le rôle des acteurs locaux. Elle propose comme dispositif les projets alimentaires territoriaux pour coordonner leur action selon une démarche de projet. La loi donne aux collectivités locales un rôle essentiel dans la gouvernance des acteurs. Dans cet article, les auteurs questionnent une démarche de relocalisation alimentaire en étudiant le projet alimentaire territorial de Tours-Métropole-Val-de-Loire. À défaut d'une démarche transversale, ils montreront que Tours-Métropole adopte une démarche techniciste qui conduit au maintien de la prédominance des acteurs des filières longues dans le système alimentaire local. |
| Keywords: | Tours-Val-de-Loire metropolis,relocalization of agricultural production,local supply of food products,territorial food project,circuit alimentaire de proximité,relocalisation production agricole,métropole Tours-Val-de-Loire,projet alimentaire territorial |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03197006&r= |
| By: | Amar Oukil; Slim Zekri |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a two-stage analytical framework to investigate farming efficiency. In the first stage, data envelopment analysis is employed to estimate the efficiency of the farms and conduct slack and scale economies analyses. In the second stage, we propose a stochastic model to identify potential sources of inefficiency. The latter model integrates within a unified structure all variables, including inputs, outputs and contextual factors. As an application ground, we use a sample of 60 farms from the Batinah coastal region, an agricultural area representing more than 53 per cent of the total cropped area of Oman. The findings of the study lay emphasis on the inter-dependence of groundwater salinity, irrigation technology and operational efficiency of a farm, with as a key recommendation the necessity for more regulated water consumption and a readjustment of governmental subsidiary policies. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2104.10943&r= |
| By: | Chouaib Jouf; Laté Lawson |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of European farmers’ responsiveness to changes in agri-commodities prices on their trade-off between agricultural expansion and forestland preservation. We investigate this issue by estimating a recursive model using a comprehensive dataset of European agricultural holdings over the period 2008-2017, covering 128 regions (26 countries). Our main finding is that there is indeed evidence of such a trade-off. An increase in commodity prices leads to higher cropland profitability, which in turn causes deforestation in the 128 European regions considered. Replicating the analysis on different subsamples confirms the robustness of these findings. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural commodities prices; Land-use; Cropland; Woodland. |
| JEL: | Q11 Q18 Q23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2021-10&r= |
| By: | Francis Declerck (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School); Jean-Pierre Indjehagopian (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School); Frédéric Lantz (IFP School, IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at explaining the major drivers of biodiesel market prices by examining agricultural resource prices and gasoil prices for automotive fuels in the context of the EU environmental policy. The EU policy has enhanced biodiesel production since 2006. Biodiesel prices are impacted by the EU policy as well as rapeseed and oil prices which have fluctuated a lot over the last decade. An econometric analysis was performed using monthly data from November 2006 to January 2016. However, tests for structural breaks show several changes in price behavior. This leads us to estimate a regime-switching model which reveals two main regimes for the biodiesel price pattern. When oil prices are high, biodiesel, rapeseed and diesel oil prices are related, mainly driven by oil prices. When oil prices are low, biodiesel prices are mostly related to rapeseed prices according to EU regulations requiring the of biodiesel and gasoil. |
| Keywords: | structural changes,oil market,biofuel,switching regime model |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03193880&r= |
| By: | Barrett, Christopher B.; Islam, Asad; Pakrashi, Debayan; Ruthbah, Ummul |
| Abstract: | We report the results of a large-scale, multi-year experimental evaluation of the System of Rice Intensification (SRI), an innovation that first emerged in Madagascar in the 1980s and has now diffused to more than 50 countries. Using a randomized training saturation design, we find that greater cross-sectional or intertemporal intensity of direct or indirect training exposure to SRI has a sizable, positive effect on Bangladeshi farmers’ propensity to adopt (and not to disadopt) SRI. We find large, positive and significant impacts of SRI training on rice yields and profits, as well as multiple household well-being indicators, for both trained and untrained farmers in training villages. Despite the significant farm-level impacts on rice productivity and labor costs, we find no evidence of significant general equilibrium effects on rice prices or wage rates. We also find high rates of disadoption, and clear indications of non-random selection into technology adoption conditional on randomized exposure to training, such that adopters and non-adopters within the same treatment arm experience similar outcomes. Rice yields, profits and household well-being outcomes do not, however, vary at the intensive margin with intensity of training exposure, a finding consistent with multi-object learning models. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2021–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cuaepw:309950&r= |
| By: | Yau-Huo Shr; Wendong Zhang (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)) |
| Abstract: | Executive Summary Nutrient pollution from agricultural non-point source runoff is one of the most critical water resource issues in the United States today. The establishment of the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force to address hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico led to the creation of the 2013 Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy. However, implementing these efforts is costly and requires significant federal and state funding. For example, in 2018, Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds' first legislation provided $282 million over 12 years to fund edge-of-field and in-field infrastructure projects designed to meet nutrient reduction strategy goals and to fund projects to improve the quality of Iowa's surface water, ground water, and drinking water. Understanding the economic benefits from reducing nutrient pollution is essential to justify these investments and determine the direction of conservation programs. This policy brief uses recent results from two household surveys in 2019 and 2020 to gauge Iowans' perceptions and attitudes toward water quality issues and associated policies. Iowa Water Center grants funded both surveys. Iowa State University's Center for Survey Statistics and Methodology conducted the surveys in summer 2019 and summer 2020. The data collection process followed Dillman's mixed-mode (web/mail) survey design. The first wave of the survey targeted the general public and received a total of 858 completed surveys during the data collection period, a response rate of 28.7%. The second wave of the survey targeted farmers in the Boone and North Raccoon River watersheds and received a total of 493 surveys during the data collection period, a response rate of 49.4%. Major findings from the two surveys are as follows: Farmers believe water quality is less of a concern than the general public. Thirty-two percent of the public and 55% farmers think Iowa's water quality is good or very good. Half of the general public and 30% of farmers think algal blooms are very harmful. Thirty-five percent of the general public and 26% of farmers are concerned about nitrates in drinking water in their neighborhood. Iowans increasingly regard harmful algal blooms as an important issue. Sixty percent of respondents have seen algal blooms at least once in person. Fifty-eight percent of Iowa general public is at least somewhat aware of algal blooms in Iowa's lakes. Twenty percent of the general public has no awareness of algal blooms in Iowa's lakes. The knowledge of and views about the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy is somewhat mixed and differs between farmers and the general public. Sixty percent of the general public and 32% of farmers think agriculture (manure + fertilizer) is the biggest source of excessive nutrients in Iowa's lakes. More than 60% of the general public and 20% of farmers have no familiarity with the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy. Forty-seven percent of farmers agree or strongly agree that the strategy is a feasible plan to reduce nutrients, 42% are neutral or do not know. Nearly 40% of the general public has no familiarity with the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico. The majority of the general public, but only 22% of farmers, consider a special sales tax on all fertilizer the most appropriate way to fund lake protection programs in Iowa. Thirty percent of farmers chose a recreational fee as the best way to fund the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:21-pb32&r= |
| By: | Gáfaro, Margarita; Mantilla, Cesar |
| Abstract: | We characterize a general bargaining game useful for environmental valuation purposes. In this game, a jointly endowed asset is divisible into smaller units of two types: those with and without an associated costly attribute. Bargaining parties can use monetary transfers to their counterpart in exchange for accruing more units of the jointly endowed asset. We show that the cost of the attribute is perfectly absorbed by the transfer in a broad set of game solutions. Outcomes differing in the allocation of the units with the costly attribute allows us to identify whether the players' valuation of the attribute corresponds to its value induced in the game (i.e., its cost) or whether this attribute is over-or under-valued. We show an application to the valuation of water in a lab-in-the-field experiment conducted with Colombian farmers. We find evidence that the players' valuation of in-plot access to water dwells between 2.1 and 3.5 times its induced cost in the experiment. |
| Date: | 2021–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:tcfyb&r= |
| By: | Rösemann, Claus; Haenel, Hans-Dieter; Vos, Cora; Dämmgen, Ulrich; Döring, Ulrike; Wulf, Sebastian; Eurich-Menden, Brigitte; Freibauer, Annette; Döhler, Helmut; Schreiner, Carsten; Osterburg, Bernhard; Fuß, Roland |
| Abstract: | The report at hand (including a comprehensive annex of data) serves as additional document to the National Inventory Report (NIR) on the German green house gas emissions and the Informative Inventory Report (IIR) on the German emissions of air pollutants (especially ammonia). The report documents the calculation methods used in the German agricultural inventory model Py-GAS-EM as well as input data, emission results and uncertainties of the emission reporting submission 2021 for the years 1990 - 2019. In this context the sector Agriculture comprises the emissions from animal husbandry, the use of agricultural soils and anaerobic digestion of energy crops. As required by the guidelines, emissions from activities preceding agriculture, from the use of energy and from land use change are reported elsewhere in the national inventories. The calculation methods are based in principle on the international guidelines for emission reporting and have been continuingly improved during the past years by the Thünen Institute working group on agricultural emission inventories, partly in cooperation with KTBL. In particular, these improvements concern the calculation of energy requirements, feeding and the N balance of the most important animal categories. In addition, technical measures such as air scrubbing (mitigation of ammonia emissions) and digestion of animal manures (mitigation of emissions of methane and laughing gas) have been taken into account. For the calculation of emissions from anaerobic digestion of animal manures and energy crops (including spreading of the digestate), the aforementioned working group developed, in cooperation with KTBL, a national methodology. [...] |
| Keywords: | Emission inventory,agriculture,livestock husbandry,agricultural soils,anaerobic digestion,energy crops,renewable primary products,greenhouse gases,air pollutants,methane,laughing gas,ammonia,particulate matter,Emissionsinventar,Landwirtschaft,Tierhaltung,landwirtschaftliche Böden,anaerobe Vergärung,Energiepflanzen,nachwachsende Rohstoffe,Treibhausgase,Luftschadstoffe,Methan,Lachgas,Ammoniak,luftgetragene Partikel,Staub |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtire:84&r= |
| By: | Milovanska-Farrington, Stefani (University of Tampa) |
| Abstract: | Nutritious eating habits contribute to a stronger immune system necessary for prevention and easier recovery from illnesses. A job loss, experienced by millions of Americans during the Covid-19 pandemic, is expected to negatively affect food security of families. This research explores the effect of a recent job loss during the Covid-19 crisis on food sufficiency. The findings suggest that a job loss in the family is associated with greater food insecurity, reduced likelihood that a family has a sufficient amount of food, and deteriorated child nutrition. There is also a differential effect between currently employed and unemployed job losers, with the latter group being more adversely affected. The negative effect is primarily driven by Hispanic and low-educated individuals. These results have policy implications in the context of identifying vulnerable groups that are most likely to benefit from programs designed to provide sufficient nutrition to the population. |
| Keywords: | food security, nutrition, job loss, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | J63 J60 I19 D12 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14273&r=all |
| By: | Uduji, Joseph; Okolo-Obasi, Elda; Asongu, Simplice |
| Abstract: | Food prices in Nigeria have become significantly higher and more volatile since 2012. The purpose of this research was to find out what affects farmers’ participation in the growth enhancement support scheme (GESS) in the country. We determined the effect of the GESS on the ease of access to market information and agricultural inputs that influence price volatility at farm gate level. A total of 2100 rural farmers were sampled across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones. Result from the use of recursive bivariate probit model showed that farmers depended on the GESS for the resolution of food price volatility by providing food market information and agricultural inputs that bring down the incidence and amount of anxiety-impelled price rise in Nigeria. The results advocated for the need to improve the GESS in line with the agricultural transformation agenda (ATA) by cutting down the deterrents mostly linked with the use of mobile phones, and the distance of registration and assemblage centers. In extension and contribution, the findings suggest that smallholder farmers can be part of the volatility solution when they are provided with rural roads and transportation to get their product to the market, and technology to receive and share the latest market information on prices. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural transformation agenda, recursive bivariate probit model, food price volatility, growth enhancement support scheme, rural farmers, Nigeria. |
| JEL: | O1 O55 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107241&r= |
| By: | Ryo Takahashi (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University); Keijiro Otsuka (Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | Although community forest management has become a principal approach for the management of forest resources in developing countries, empirical evidence on its effectiveness is mixed. We argue in this study that while community management is effective in protection or regulated use of forest resources as argued by Ostrom, it may fail to provide proper incentives to take care of such resources because of collective sharing of benefits of forest management. This study proposes a mixed private and community management system as a desirable arrangement for timber forest management in developing countries, which is characterized by communal protection of community-owned forest area and individual management of individually owned trees. We conducted a randomized experiment on community forests in Ethiopia in which individualized tree rights have been granted to member of randomly selected communities with the permission of the local authority. We found that the mixed management system significantly stimulated intensive forest management activities, including pruning, guarding, and watering. Furthermore, individual members of the mixed management system extracted more timber trees and forest products, which are byproducts of tree management, such as thinned trees and pruned branches. As may be expected, the extracted volumes of nontimber forest products unrelated to tree management (i.e., fodder and honey) did not change by the intervention. |
| Keywords: | property regimes, individual rights, commons, community forest management, RCT |
| JEL: | O13 Q23 Q24 P48 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2022&r= |
| By: | Kehinde O. Olusoga (Department of Banking and Finance, Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus); Mikhail Miklyaev (Department of Economics, Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada and Senior Associate/ economist Cambridge Resources International Inc.); Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Kingston, Canada and Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | The Somali region of Ethiopia has a high potential for milk production. The perishable nature of raw camel milk imposes a significant loss to the pastoralists and the economy. This study assesses the ex-post evaluation of the milk processing plant in Jijiga city, the Somali region of Ethiopia, by identifying the risk variables that affected the outcome of the project. Also, we employ a Cost-Benefit Analysis to evaluate a possible solution to the milk processing plant by appraising the financial viability of powdered camel milk production and identifying the potential risks that might affect the outcome of the project. The milk production plant will process raw camel milk to powdered form to benefit from the seasonal fluctuation of camel milk supply because of the higher shelf life of powder camel milk. Although there is potential growth in the camel milk value chain in Ethiopia, market access is one of the major limitations of camel milk production. There has been an increase in the demand for powdered camel milk globally due to the awareness of its physiochemical properties, health benefits, and higher shelf life. By 2027, the camel milk global market is projected to hit USD 10.07 billion, rising at an 8 percent growth rate. The result of the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) shows that the powdered camel milk production project will generate an NPV of 38.47 million ETB and a MIRR of 26.6%. The minimum ADSCR is 1.93, the average ADSCR is 5.95, the minimum LLCR is 4.34, the average LLCR is 7.47. The project’s sensitive variables are the exchange rate, the export price of powdered camel milk, raw camel milk price, and the milk processing capacity. |
| Keywords: | Cost-Benefit Analysis, ex-post evaluation, financial analysis, Risk analysis, Powdered Camel Milk, Somali Region, Ethiopia. |
| JEL: | D61 D62 Q12 Q13 |
| Date: | 2021–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:4571&r=all |
| By: | Dong, Hao; Dacre, Nicholas; Bailey, Adrian |
| Abstract: | Complex agriculture projects directly affect the welfare of over half the world’s population, are a key Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), and account for the single most extensive human activity across 40% of the world’s surface. Furthermore, they are highly susceptible to environmental, social, and economic pressures such as climate change, cyclical pandemics, market disruptions, and diminishing arable land. These issues are also becoming increasingly vital in dint of the fact that population growth is placing increasing pressure on sustainable priorities. However, a recent scientometric review indicates a significant paucity in the extant literature on agriculture projects, with a pressing need for further research to examine sustainable project management practices from an institutional perspective. This research, therefore, aims to respond to this gap in the literature by drawing on Institutional Theory through a multi-case study of Agriculture Co-operative Institutions (ACIs). These are often viewed as valuable vehicles to deliver agricultural projects which can benefit communities, especially in emerging markets. Initial findings from two rounds of fieldwork as well as an extensive literature review suggest that ACIs as value-based organisations embedded within institutional contexts help stimulate elements of agility in project management processes, to deliver sustainable outcomes for their members and external stakeholders. Agile ACI project managers can also stimulate innovative outcomes across broader sustainable agriculture projects. It is the aim of this research also to undertake a larger cross-country comparison with international research cases. Therefore, this study will aim to not only contribute to critical project management discourse and knowledge but also to uncover agile project management practices for future pressing policy development and implementation to help foster greater sustainable agriculture project processes. |
| Date: | 2021–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:v4je2&r= |
| By: | Hoffmann, Linwood; Bond, Jennifer K.; Matias, Mariana |
| Abstract: | To inform their forecasts, U.S. wheat analysts concerned with production, marketing, and policy issues use the U.S. Department of Agriculture all wheat season-average farm price (SAFP) as reported in World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). A futures-based forecasting model linked to hard red winter (HRW) futures prices (Hoffman and Balagtas, 1999) provides important input into the development of the monthly WASDE all wheat SAFP projection. However, in recent years, price relationships among the major classes of wheat have changed, suggesting that additional wheat futures prices should be included in the model. This report presents an alternative, aggregate futures-based forecasting model that utilizes the three available wheat futures contract prices: HRW, soft red winter (SRW), and hard red spring (HRS), which represents the majority of U.S. wheat production. Results show the aggregate futures-based model tends to provide forecasts with a lower mean absolute percent error and a more accurate prediction of positive directional movement than the HRW-only model. Further, the aggregate model more closely tracks the monthly WASDE SAFP projections. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Financial Economics, Marketing |
| Date: | 2021–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:310518&r= |
| By: | Hildegart Ahumada; Magdalena Cornejo |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effect of the Amazon deforestation on global climate variables: surface temperature, carbon dioxide and methane concentrations over the last fifty years. Our results show the Amazon deforestation effect on carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere since 1990. No similar effect is found for methane concentrations. |
| Keywords: | climate change, deforestation, Amazon, gas emission |
| JEL: | Q2 C3 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4332&r=all |
| By: | Camilo Andrés Acosta Mejía |
| JEL: | O18 R14 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:019223&r= |
| By: | Grassnick, Nina; Brümmer, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | Large chocolate manufacturers have committed themselves to only using certified cocoa beans and some governments want to increase the share of certified cocoa products consumed in their countries. Thus, Voluntary Sustainability Standards (VSSs) become quasi-mandatory for cocoa producers and grinders to ensure access to these markets. Yet, their trade effects are unclear. We study the effect of a VSS on raw and processed cocoa exports. We use a unique dataset that contains the UTZ Certified cocoa production quantity of cocoa-producing countries from 2010 to 2016. This allows us to estimate a gravity model of trade and analyse the effect of the share of UTZ Certified cocoa production quantity in a country on the trade value of raw cocoa beans, cocoa powder, cocoa paste and cocoa butter. Our results show that UTZ certification only enhances bilateral exports of cocoa beans and paste, while it reduces exports of cocoa butter and has mixed effects on cocoa powder exports. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gagfdp:310535&r= |
| By: | Glyn Wittwer; Kym Anderson |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an empirical case study of impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global beverage markets, particularly the wine sector. Both international trade and domestic sales have been adversely affected by temporary shifts away from on-premise sales by social distancing measures and self-isolation that led to closure of restaurants, bars and clubs plus declines in international travel and tourism. Partly offsetting this has been a boost to off-premise and direct e-commerce sales. We first estimate those impacts in 2020 and their expected partial recovery in 2021 using a new model of global beverage markets. A further recent disruption to global wine trade has been the imposition by China in late 2020 of prohibitive tariffs on its imports of bottled wine from Australia. Its diversionary and trade-reducing effects are compared with those due to COVID-19. |
| Keywords: | Beverage market modeling, pandemic responses by consumers, prohibitive tariffs, trade diversion |
| JEL: | C63 D12 F14 F17 Q17 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2021-12&r=all |