|
on Agricultural Economics |
|
Issue of 2021‒03‒15
forty-two papers chosen by |
| By: | Ancuta Isbasoiu (Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE AgroParisTech, UMR Economie Publique, France, ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Pierre-Alain Jayet (Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE AgroParisTech, UMR Economie Publique, France, ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Stéphane de Cara (Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE AgroParisTech, UMR Economie Publique, France, ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on the links between food production and greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union. The analysis relies on two sets of simulations of AROPAj, a supply-side model of EU agriculture: (i) a carbon price affecting agricultural GHG emissions (from 0 to 200 EUR/tCO2eq), and (ii) a lower limit on the net quantity of food calories provided by EU agriculture (200 to 450 Mt soft wheat equivalent). The model is calibrated on six annual datasets 2007–2012. The results show that a moderate increase in the price of carbon would lead to an increase in total areas and outputs of crops. Animal production decreases over the explored range of carbon price. At 200 EUR/tCO2eq, the reduction in GHG emissions ranges from 25 to 35% depending on the year of calibration. The results also show that current net calorie production from food can be more than doubled, while simultaneously reducing GHG emissions by 10–15%. The compatibility between a reduction in GHG emissions and an increase in food calorie production relies on substantial changes in animal production and feed, which implies significant variations in grassland and fallow land. These effects are contrasted between the regions of the EU. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude se concentre sur les liens entre la production alimentaire et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre dans l'Union européenne. L'analyse s'appuie sur deux séries de simulations d'AROPAj, un modèle de l'agriculture européenne axé sur l'offre : (i) un prix du carbone affectant les émissions de GES agricoles (de 0 à 200 EUR/tCO2eq), et (ii) une limite inférieure de la quantité nette de calories alimentaires fournies par l'agriculture de l'UE (200 à 450 Mt d'équivalent blé tendre). Le modèle est calibré sur six séries de données annuelles 2007-2012. Les résultats montrent qu'une augmentation modérée du prix du carbone entraînerait une augmentation des superficies totales et de la production des cultures. La production animale diminue dans la fourchette explorée du prix du carbone. À 200 EUR/tCO2eq, la réduction des émissions de GES varie de 25 à 35 % selon l'année de calibrage. Les résultats montrent également que la production actuelle de calories nettes provenant de l'alimentation peut être plus que doublée, tout en réduisant simultanément les émissions de GES de 10 à 15 %. La compatibilité entre une réduction des émissions de GES et une augmentation de la production de calories alimentaires repose sur des changements substantiels dans la production et l'alimentation animale, ce qui implique des variations importantes dans les prairies et les jachères. Ces effets sont contrastés entre les régions de l'UE. |
| Keywords: | Greenhouse gas emissions,Food production,Carbon price,European Union,Mathematical programming model,greenhouse gas emissions,food production,carbon price,mathematical programming model JEL Classification: Q18,Q54,Emission de gaz à effet de serre,Production alimentaire,Prix du carbone,Union européenne,Programmation mathématique |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03151982&r=all |
| By: | Jasmien De Winne; Gert Peersman (-) |
| Abstract: | Extreme weather events are known to be detrimental for local economic activity, but could also affect countries that are not directly exposed to the extreme weather conditions through global agricultural production shortfalls and price surges induced by such events. For a panel of 75 countries, we show that increases in global agricultural commodity prices that are caused by harvest disruptions or unfavourable weather conditions in other regions of the world significantly curtail economic activity. The impact is considerably stronger in advanced countries, despite the lower shares of food in household expenditures these countries have compared to low-income countries. Furthermore, we find weaker effects in countries that are net exporters of agricultural products, have large domestic agricultural sectors and/or are less integrated in global markets for non-agricultural trade. Once we control for these characteristics, the effects on economic activity become smaller when the country’s income per capita is higher. Overall, these findings suggest that the consequences of climate change on advanced countries may be larger than previously thought. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural commodity prices, economic activity, harvest disruptions, weather shocks, climate change |
| JEL: | E32 F44 O13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:21/1012&r=all |
| By: | Keijiro Otsuka (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | Traditionally, a major role of agriculture in Asia was to produce enough staple foods for food security through intensification of farming system. Today, however, agriculture is expected to contribute to multiple development goals. First, since wage rate h as been increasing in high performing Asian countries, including Indonesia, farm size expansion to introduce labor saving mechanization must be promoted to reduce production cost, particularly in rice farming. Second, considering increasing demand for palm oil and global concern with decreasing forest environment, achieving intensification of oil palm production without extensification is an urgent issue. Third, responding to increasing demand for high value agricultural products (HVPs), such as fresh fruit s and vegetables, for better nutrition and health, agricultural resources must be shifted to the production of these products. Fourth, considering that urban areas are excessively congested, rural areas must provide increased employment opportunities by pr omoting rural industrialization. Based on the literature review, this article proposes strategies (1) to maintain comparative advantage in rice farming, (2) to intensify oil palm production in a sustainable fashion, (3) to increase production of HVPs,and (4) to promote rural industrialization simultaneously in the context of Indonesia. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2108&r=all |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin |
| Abstract: | The problem of determining the competitiveness of various economic organizations is among the most topical academic and practical issues from the emergence of economics science to the present day. It is particularly important for the agricultural sector, which is characterized by many participants, high specialization and exchange, strong competition at local, national and international level, highly integrated food and supply chains, market segmentation, unequal public support, strong state regulation, processing and trade and professional organizations, strong consumer pressure for quality, eco-behavior, etc., presence of underdeveloped and non-competitive "markets", etc. Nevertheless, despite its importance and continouing debates, there is still no consensus on what is the competitiveness of farms, how to measure the competitiveness of different organizations in agriculture, what is the absolute and comparative competitiveness of different types of farms, which are the critical factors for increasing the competitiveness at the current stage of development, etc. This paper tries to fill the existing gap by applying a holistic approach and assessing the competitiveness of Bulgarian farms as a whole and with different specializations. The multi-criteria assessment found that the level of competitiveness of farms in the country is at a good level, with low adaptive potential and economic efficiency to the greatest extent contributing to lower competitiveness. More than a third of all agricultural holdings have a low level of competitiveness. The most competitive are the farms specialised in the beekeeping, followed by field crops, mixed animal husbandry and mixed crops production, and the lowest for farms in grazing livestock. Most significant factors for increasing the competitiveness of Bulgarian farms are market conditions (supply and demand, prices, competition), direct government subsidies, access to knowledge, advice and counseling, participation in government support programs, available information, financial opportunities, and opportunities for benefits in the near future. Proposed approach should be improved and applied more widely and periodically, increasing accuracy and representativeness. The latter requires close cooperation with producer organizations, advisory service and other stakeholders, and improvement of the agricultural information collection system in the country. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness, agricultural holdings, product specialization, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | Q1 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106341&r=all |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin |
| Abstract: | The importance of “good governance” for achieving agrarian sustainability has been increasingly studied in the last two decades. What has been a recent development is the inclusion of governance into (agrarian) sustainability as a new “fourth” pillar. Still there is no consensus on: what is governance sustainability; how to measure governance sustainability; how to integrate governance into the overall sustainability; what are critical factors determining sustainability levels, etc. The goal of this article is to present a holistic framework for defining and assessing the governance sustainability in agriculture, and assess the level of governance sustainability of Bulgarian agriculture at national, sub-sectoral, regional, ecosystem, and farming organization levels. The study has demonstrated that it is possible and important to assess the “missing” Governance Pillar of agrarian sustainability. Governance sustainability of Bulgarian agriculture is at a good but close to the inferior level. There is a considerable variation in the level of governance sustainability and application of the principles for good governance in different subsectors, agro-ecosystems, administrative regions, and types of farming organizations. At current stage, most critical for improving the governance sustainability are progressive changes in: farmers' participation in decision-making, agrarian administration efficiency, administrative services digitalization, possibility for lands extension, management board external control, level of informal system efficiency, subsidies in income, extent of CAP implementation, acceptability of legal payments, and land concentration. Suggested and other similar frameworks have to be further discussed, tested, improved and adapted to the specific conditions of agricultural systems and the needs of decision-makers. Accuracy has to be improved through the inclusion of appropriate indicators, improvement of precision of the information, increasing representation of surveyed farms, and experimenting with diverse types of agro-systems. |
| Keywords: | governance, sustainability, assessment, agro-systems, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | Q10 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106310&r=all |
| By: | Ignaciuk, Ada; Scognamillo, Antonio; Sitko, Nick |
| Abstract: | In many developing countries the adoption of climate sustainable practices is hindered by resource and risk barriers. This paper assesses the interactions between participation in Malawi’s largest public works programme, the Malawi Social Action Fund (MASAF), and three widely promoted climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices. The underlying hypotheses to be tested are: (a) that participation in the MASAF programme reduce both the budget and the risk constraints to the adoption of sustainable management practices; and (b) the joint treatment effect of MASAF and CSA increases household farms’ productivity and welfare. Drawing on three waves of national panel household survey data, we find that participation in MASAF significantly increases the probability that farm households adopt all the CSA practices considered for this study. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2021–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:faoaes:309808&r=all |
| By: | Julia Heinrichs; Julia Jouan (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Christoph Pahmeyer; Wolfgang Britz |
| Abstract: | Legumes, which currently show low production levels in the European Union, can reduce negative environmental externalities of agricultural systems by lowering nitrogen (N) fertilization and increasing protein self-sufficiency. This has led to the introduction of coupled support in France, in contrast to Germany. However, the German implementation of the Nitrates Directive is more favorable for legumes. Our study assesses economic and environmental impacts of these two policies affecting legume production. We employ the bio-economic model FarmDyn, representing French and German dairy farms. The results suggest that relatively low levels of coupled support can lead to modest increases in legume production, but that more substantial changes require considerable subsidies. Allowing the French farm to apply manure on legumes, as is already possible in Germany, fosters legume production while considerably reducing the use of synthetic N fertilizer and imported protein-rich feed. However, environmental benefits are limited. |
| Keywords: | Global warming potential,Leaching,Bio-economic model,Mathematical programming,Protein crop,Nitrates Directive |
| Date: | 2021–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03142612&r=all |
| By: | Seungki Lee; Yongjie Ji (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); GianCarlo Moschini (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)) |
| Abstract: | Climate change is one of the major threats to the global food supply, and adaptation by technological progress is believed to be essential. What is the scope of the required innovation tasks? To address this question, we estimate the yield gain in US maize production due to a major novel technology: genetically engineered (GE) varieties. Next, the yield model is used to extrapolate future expected yields given climate change projections from twenty large-scale models and two warming scenarios. We find that climate change entails significant yield shortfalls. The scale of these yield gaps, by the end of the century, ranges from about 2.7 to 6.3 times the total yield gains from GE varieties. These results suggest that the scope of adaptation is challenging. Ambitious and targeted R&D efforts, and innovation breakthroughs, may be required to close the yield gaps likely to arise from climate change. |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:21-wp616&r=all |
| By: | Fabienne Femenia; Laure Latruffe; Jean-Paul Chavas |
| Abstract: | In this article, we investigate the investment behaviour of French crop farmers between 2002 and 2014, with a focus on their adjustments to investment prices and farm output prices, which became more volatile after 2007. We estimate an econometric model of farm investment accounting for farm heterogeneity and allowing for change in behavioural parameters after 2007. Our results show evidence of a significant behavioural change in large investments over time, related to a change in farmers’ preferences toward risk, which can explain the relative stability of farm investment over the period, despite the strong increase in crop price levels and in crop price volatility after 2007. |
| Keywords: | investment, risk aversion, prices, volatility, crop farms, France |
| JEL: | Q12 D80 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rae:wpaper:202102&r=all |
| By: | Liz Ignowski; Bart Minten; Jo Swinnen; Bjorn Van Campenhout; Senne Vandevelde |
| Abstract: | Agricultural value chains, particularly in the developing world, have been going through drastic changes over the past decades. Differences in world market participation and access to value chain technologies might however have resulted in uneven experiences across countries. In this paper, we explore their impact on prices in the value chain, using the example of two East African countries, Ethiopia and Uganda. We develop a conceptual framework and then validate the model using unique primary price data collected at several levels in the dairy value chains in both countries. We find that prices are overall significantly lower in Uganda than Ethiopia, reflecting their respective net exporting and importing status. Moreover, despite shorter value chains, we find much more significant effects of distances from the capital (the major end destination) on milk prices in Ethiopia than in Uganda. This is seemingly linked to the widespread presence of milk chilling centers in Uganda. While it has been shown that such technology is important for milk quality, we find here that they also have the added benefit to reduce the impact of farmer’s remoteness on prices and therefore allow for more geographically extended value chains. |
| Date: | 2021–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:licosp:671298&r=all |
| By: | Liz Ignowski; Bart Minten; Jo Swinnen; Bjorn Van Campenhout; Senne Vandevelde |
| Abstract: | Agricultural value chains, particularly in the developing world, have been going through drastic changes over the past decades. Differences in world market participation and access to value chain technologies might however have resulted in uneven experiences across countries. In this paper, we explore their impact on prices in the value chain, using the example of two East African countries, Ethiopia and Uganda. We develop a conceptual framework and then validate the model using unique primary price data collected at several levels in the dairy value chains in both countries. We find that prices are overall significantly lower in Uganda than Ethiopia, reflecting their respective net exporting and importing status. Moreover, despite shorter value chains, we find much more significant effects of distances from the capital (the major end destination) on milk prices in Ethiopia than in Uganda. This is seemingly linked to the widespread presence of milk chilling centers in Uganda. While it has been shown that such technology is important for milk quality, we find here that they also have the added benefit to reduce the impact of farmer’s remoteness on prices and therefore allow for more geographically extended value chains. |
| Date: | 2021–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:671298&r=all |
| By: | Cimpoies, Liliana; Sarbu, Olga |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the changes that occurred in Moldova’s trade of agricultural and food products since the implementation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with European Union. The research will include the analysis of Moldova’s foreign trade activity from the perspective of agricultural and food products, the changes that occurred in their structure, dynamics and competitiveness. The data used will underline the period 2015- 2019, regarding the agricultural and food trade commodities. The competitiveness will be assessed through trade indicators as Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) and Trade Balance Index (TBI) based on product mapping approach. As result we delimitate four groups of products classified according to their comparative advantages/disadvantages and export specialization. By analyzing the obtained results we have found three agri-food products that have comparative advantages and are net exporters on E.U. market. About half of agri-food products that fall into the category of comparative advantage but are net importers. The competitiveness of this group has potential to grow and it could be improved. |
| Keywords: | agri-food products, competitiveness, trade. |
| JEL: | F10 Q17 |
| Date: | 2020–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106297&r=all |
| By: | Florian, Violeta; Rusu, Marioara; Roşu, Elisabeta |
| Abstract: | Ecological agriculture provides a favourable framework for maintaining biodiversity by using economically and socially efficient friendly farming practices, generating modern attributes to rural communities and offering a different lifestyle and a different quality of life to the entire society. In two counties ranking in the top ten counties with areas cultivated under organic farming system, Cluj and Suceava, there are positive implications of these farming practices on biological diversity. Qualitative research methods were used to see the local/rural actors’ opinion on this topic: hybrid forum and in-depth-interviews. Farmers’ decisions to adopt sustainable practices for the environment, which provide positive externalities for biodiversity, water, soil and landscapes, are generated by business-specific economic and social rationality tending to achieve profit specific objectives by using traditional knowledge and skills from the intangible rural heritage. |
| Keywords: | ecological agriculture, biodiversity, rural communities, local actors. |
| JEL: | Q15 R11 |
| Date: | 2020–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106313&r=all |
| By: | Julie Thomas; Marielle Brunette; Antoine Leblois |
| Abstract: | Climate change seriously impacts forest ecosystems. In order to maintain forest cover, adaptation strategies should be implemented. In France, adaptation decisions are mainly in the hands of private forest owners. However, little is known about the way they perceive climate change or about their decisions related to adaptation. The aim of this article is precisely to obtain such information through a survey conducted among more than 900 French private forest owners. We identified determinants to the adoption of adaptation (gender, area, profession, having a management document, perception of climate change impact). More importantly, we show that the decision of adaptation should not be thought of in general but strategy-by-strategy because we identified strategy-dependent drivers. The article concludes with a discussion about the public policy implications of the results. |
| Keywords: | adaptation, forest, survey, French private forest owners. |
| JEL: | Q23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2021-05&r=all |
| By: | Ursu, Ana |
| Abstract: | The aim pursued in the paper is the analysis of the transformations that took place, in the period 2007- 2019, at the level of the two conventional and ecological production systems. The analysis of the statistical data series, INS Tempo-ONLINE and EUROSTAT data for conventional and organic agriculture, was used to reflect the level and trends of economic statistics in agriculture. The need to characterize the evolution and structure of agricultural phenomena also determined the calculation of statistical indicators (average, standard deviation, coefficient of variability, annual growth rate, etc.) from the perspective of cultivated areas, total yields, production yield per hectare and on the head of an animal, etc. This method responds to a well-defined goal: the data series through the calculated indicators highlight the upward / downward trend and help to determine the indicative socio-economic development of the regions taking into account the differentiated growth rates of the systems in each region. The study provides and contributes to information, by knowing the evolution over time of plant and animal agricultural products, obtained conventionally and in organic farming. |
| Keywords: | agricultural products, statistical indicators, conventional system, ecological agriculture |
| JEL: | D20 O5 P51 Q1 Q17 |
| Date: | 2020–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106300&r=all |
| By: | Lars Ludolph (London School of Economics and Political Science); Barbora Šedová (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, University of Potsdam) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the effect of exogenous global crop price changes on migration from agricultural and non-agricultural households in Sub-Saharan Africa. We show that, similar to the effect of positive local weather shocks, the effect of a locally-relevant global crop price increase on household out-migration depends on the initial household wealth. Higher international producer prices relax the budget constraint of poor agricultural households and facilitate migration. The order of magnitude of a standardized price effect is approx. one third of the standardized effect of a local weather shock. Unlike positive weather shocks, which mostly facilitate internal rural-urban migration, positive income shocks through rising producer prices only increase migration to neighboring African countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. Finally, we show that while higher producer prices induce conflict, conflict does not play a role for the household decision to send a member as a labor migrant. |
| Keywords: | labour migration, food prices, climate, Africa |
| JEL: | O15 O55 Q56 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:26&r=all |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier; Christophe Perrot; Emmanuel Beguin; Marc Moraine; Patrick Veysset |
| Abstract: | [in French] In a context characterized by the existence of economic, social and environmental difficulties, this paper aims to present, in a synthetic way, a quantified inventory of the French cattle sector (milk and meat). It is based on the use of various sources of available information, including data from customs, the Farm Accounting Data Network and the Mutualité Sociale Agricole. The first two parts address the question of the dynamics of the dairy and beef markets (production, consumption and trade) by distinguishing successively between the external market (external competitiveness during the period 2000-2019) and the internal market (adequacy between supply and demand, end users of the products); a complementary analysis of the differentiation of supply makes it possible to address the place of the various signs of quality and new forms of commercial demarcation based on a reference to the territory. The last two parts deal with upstream players, focusing first on the competitiveness of French farms over the long term (1990-2018), then on jobs on farms (generational renewal, transformation of farm setting-up).. |
| Keywords: | cattle sector, animal sectors, competitiveness, foreign trade, farms, France, FADN |
| JEL: | Q12 Q13 Q17 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rae:wpaper:202101&r=all |
| By: | Waithaka, Michael; Mugoya, Mainza; Mabaya, Edward; Tihanyi, Krisztina |
| Abstract: | The overall goal of decentralizing seed services is to increase the availability and accessibility of quality seed to farmers. The governments of Uganda and Tanzania have endeavoured to enhance access to improved seed for smallholder farmers. These efforts have achieved results and encountered challenges. The successes include an increase in the number of key players in the seed sector in general. In Uganda, the number of community seed banks (CSBs) has increased from one to five over the last five years (Adokorach et al., 2020). The number of Local Seed Businesses (LSBs)has increased from 27 in 2012 to 256 in 2020. In addition to the increase in actors involved in improved seed production, the interaction between them has also improved. The LSBs are developing strong links with the Zonal Agricultural Research and Development Institute (ZARDI), and the CSBs are working closely with the Plant Genetic Resources Centre. In Tanzania, the government has demonstrated willingness to support the production of Quality Declared Seed (QDS) through the enactment of the QDS Regulations in July 2020. The new regulations clarify hitherto grey areas and introduce fees for inspection, germination, and moisture tests, among others. In addition to introducing the regulations, the sector has also demonstrated steady performance over the years. QDS production has increased five-fold between 2015 and 2019. QDS farmers work closely with the Tanzania Agricultural Research Institute (TARI), the Agricultural Seed Agency (ASA) and district agricultural officers to ensure that farmers produce quality seeds. Despite these notable improvements, various challenges affect the performance of the decentralized seed system. The two specific services that have yet to be fully decentralized are the management of plant genetic resources in Tanzania and seed testing in both countries. Even though other seed services have been decentralized, further challenges persist. For example, some of the system's key players, namely the CSBs, LSBs, and QDS farmers, are not yet financially sustainable. These entities are still dependent on external project support. Without it they may not cover some of their operational costs. It is important to note that the decentralized system's challenges may be, because the system and some of the players are still in their infancy. The regulatory framework for QDS is yet to be finalized and implemented in Uganda. In addition, most of the CSBs and LSBs are less than seven years old. The first few years of their operations were mainly dedicated to setting up their governance and operational structures. An evaluation of their performance over the next few years would provide a completer and more comprehensive picture of their performance and the viability of various decentralized services. One notable difference between the QDS system in Uganda and Tanzania is the presence of a coordinating entity. In Uganda, Integrated Seed Sector Development (ISSD) Uganda has actively played the role of a coordinating agency to advance the production of QDS in the country. In Tanzania, such an agency does not exist. As such, many activities in Tanzania are less coordinated. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Industrial Organization, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubonwp:309806&r=all |
| By: | Eugene Beaulieu; Janet Whittaker |
| Abstract: | The United States and Canada have a long-standing series of disputes over softwood lumber that until now have focused on alleged subsidies and countervailing duties (CVDs). The United States changed things up this time around and the US Department of Commerce (USDOC) found dumping after applying the Differential Pricing Methodology to softwood lumber from Canada. The panel found that the USDOC erroneously aggregated export price differences when applying the DPM, but departed from the WTO Appellate Body’s previous ruling in US – Washing Machines regarding the use of zeroing and the inclusion of differential prices under Article 2.4.2 of the Anti-Dumping Agreement. To date, the United States and Canada have not been able to resolve the long-standing softwood lumber dispute, and this time the focus shifts from subsidies and countervailing duties to anti-dumping duties. It remains to be seen what happens in this specific dispute on appeal—if, and when, the WTO Appellate Body starts to function again. It will also be interesting to see whether this panel decision encourages parties to argue for, and future panels to permit departures from, Appellate Body rulings with which they disagree. |
| Keywords: | WTO, dispute settlement, antidumping, trade remedies, softwood lumber, Canada, U.S. |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2021/11&r=all |
| By: | Zamani, Omid; Pelikan, Janine; Schott, Johanna |
| Abstract: | The present report provides the results of the first work package of the IMMPEX project which aims to investigate the impact of German and European livestock product exports on agri-food sectors in selected African countries. Based on various criteria like trade statistics and a literature review, we identified the poultry and dairy sectors in Senegal and Ghana for further analysis in the course of the project. In this report, we provide an overview of the poultry and dairy product trade flows from Germany, the EU, and from the rest of the world to West Africa. We also show how imports, domestic production, and consumption of poultry and dairy products have developed over time. Our analysis reveals an upward trend of dairy and poultry products imports in both countries. Apart from the 28 EU countries, Brazil and the US are the main exporters of poultry to Ghana. However, the share of the EU increased since 2011. Senegal's domestic production has considerably expanded under the import ban on uncooked poultry meat in 2006. Nevertheless, compared with poultry production growth rates in Ghana, Senegal still has lower growth rates. With regard to dairy, intra-African trade plays an important role in this sector, however, there is evidence that intra-African trade flows might be related to reexports. The EU and New Zealand are the main competitors in the dairy markets of Ghana and Senegal. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:162&r=all |
| By: | Dietrich, Stephan (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Giuffrida, Valerio (UNU-MERIT, and Research Assessment and Monitoring Division, UN World Food Programme); Martorano, Bruno (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Schmerzeck, Georg (Department of Philosophy, Linguistics and Theory of Science, University of Gothenburg) |
| Abstract: | Governments around the world have taken drastic measures to contain the spread of the new Coronavirus. Policy responses to the pandemic could affect local food prices in sensitive ways. We hypothesize that mobility restrictions reduce trade, which increases food price dispersion and prices in regionally integrated markets, but not in segmented markets. We use WFP price data of 798 retail markets in 47 low to middle income countries to test if and how food prices were affected by the stringency of COVID- 19 measures. We assess market segmentation based on pre-COVID-19 price data and measure government responses using the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker. Our results show that more stringent policy responses increase food prices for integrated and less remote markets but not for segmented markets. The impact of the stringency of policy reposes on food prices is mediated by reductions in mobility and moderated by markets' pre-Corona dependency on trade. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Prices, Food, Market Integration, Public Policy |
| JEL: | H12 D4 Q11 Q18 D04 |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021008&r=all |
| By: | Mary Kay Fox; Elizabeth C. Gearan; Colin Schwartz |
| Abstract: | Research is limited on added sugars in school meals and children’s dietary intakes after the 2015–2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) recommended that added sugars be limited to less than 10% of total calories. |
| Keywords: | added sugars, Dietary Guidelines for Americans, National School Lunch Program, School Breakfast Program, school meals, nutrition standards, school-age children, dietary intake, School Nutrition and Meal Cost Study |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:59ee9444b5ae4894bcb1dd14345b5c0a&r=all |
| By: | Peterson, E. Wesley F. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2020–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:309745&r=all |
| By: | Stephan Marette; John Beghin; Anne-Célia Disdier; Eliza Mojduszka |
| Abstract: | New Plant Engineering Techniques (NPETs) have path-breaking potential to improve foods by strengthening their production, increasing resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses, and by bettering their appearance and nutritional quality. Can NPETs-based foods succeed in the marketplace? Providing answers to this question, we first develop a simple economic model for R&D investment in food innovations based on NPETs and traditional hybridization methods, to identify which technology emerges under various parameter characterizations and associated economic welfare outcomes. The framework combines the cost of food innovation with consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the new food, highlighting the uncertain and costly nature of R&D processes as well as the role of consumer acceptance of technology, and the cost of ignorance, and regret, if consumers are not fully informed on the technology used to generate the new food. We then apply the framework to a case of NPETs-based new apples using recently elicited WTP of French and US consumers. Our simulation results suggest that NPETs may be socially beneficial under full information, and when the probability of success under NPETs is significantly higher than under traditional hybridization. Otherwise, the innovation based on traditional hybridization is socially optimal. A probable collapse of conventional apples raises the social desirability of new apples generated by NPETs and traditional hybridization. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2021–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaesp:309701&r=all |
| By: | Jansen, Jim; Stokes, Jeffrey |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2020–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:309746&r=all |
| By: | Stockton, Matt; Rudnick, Duran; Burr, Chuck |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2020–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:309752&r=all |
| By: | Lubben, Bradley |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2020–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:309749&r=all |
| By: | Deka, Anubrata; Yiannaka, Emie; Giannakas, Konstantinos |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2020–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:309759&r=all |
| By: | Patricia Gurria Albusac (European Commission - JRC); Hugo Gonzalez Hermoso (European Commission - JRC); Tevecia Ronzon (European Commission - JRC); Saulius Tamosiunas (European Commission - JRC); Raul Lopez; Sara Garcia Condado (European Commission - REA); Giulia Ronchetti (European Commission - JRC); Jordi Guillen (European Commission - JRC); Manjola Banja (European Commission - JRC); Gianluca Fiore; Robert M’barek (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The EU Biomass Flows tool provides a representation of harmonised data from the various Joint Research Centre (JRC) units contributing to the BIOMASS Assessment study of the JRC . It represents the flows of biomass for each sector of the bioeconomy, from supply to uses including trade. The diagram enables deeper analysis and comparison of the different countries and sectors across a defined time series. The former EU Biomass Flows tool was released in 2017 and has been used in multiple research activities and publications. Since its publication, the flexibility, analysis capabilities and user experience of the interactive tool have been improved. The new EU Biomass Flows tool was created based on the Energy Flows tool from Eurostat. The EU Biomass Flows tool displays biomass flows in Sankey diagrams and it relies on the methodology to extract and integrate data developed for the former EU Biomass Flows tool. The new tool offers also an increased granularity of data for some biomass types: crop and residue production can now be shown in crop categories, animal- and plant-based food can be disaggregated into their nutrients. It has also significantly improved the visualisation of the data in charts and graphs, as well as enabling visibility of the evolution over time. Finally, users can download the full or a partial set of data. In this document, we summarise the sources and data transformation steps to create the database used to represent these biomass flows, as well as the main data gaps and challenges encountered. We also briefly discuss the main features and functionalities of the new EU Biomass Flows tool. Finally, we present some insights based on the represented data and potential future research opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Biomass, Bioeconomy, Sankey, Agriculture, Food, Feed, Forestry, Woody biomass, Fisheries, Aquaculture, Bioenergy, Biofuel, Flow diagram |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc122379&r=all |
| By: | Parsons, Jay |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2020–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:309764&r=all |
| By: | Novak, David C.; Sullivan, James L.; Niles, Meredith T. |
| Abstract: | A key purpose of the transportation system is to provide access to critical services such as grocery stores. Maintaining food access during an emergency or other disruption is all the more important, particularly for vulnerable households. Most people in the United States rely on the use of private automobiles for grocery shopping. Thus, disruptions to road networks due to heavy precipitation, flooding, or even major maintenance and repair projects present notable threats to accessibility. Regional planning models that address food accessibility issues (not all do) typically do not consider households’ familiarity with grocery locations. However, during a disruptive event, a household’s familiarity with at least one available route to a retail grocery location becomes paramount. Identifying the roadways that are most critical to food access can help decision makers devise strategies to mitigate the risks of food insecurity for vulnerable households and populations. Researchers at the University of Vermont developed a methodology that provides an ordinal measure of demand-side food access. It takes into account the spatial distribution of both the origin and destination, the topology of the road network, and the characteristics of the roadway network such as capacities, volumes, and travel speeds. The analysis considers household familiarity with retail grocery locations, destination weighting to account for retail grocery characteristics (square footage), and origin weighting to account for household vulnerability. The researchers demonstrated the methodology using the travel demand model for Chittenden County, Vermont. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provide policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Access, Food, Investments, Origin and destination, Risk assessment, Travel demand |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt47v4g0zn&r=all |
| By: | Barrett, Tina |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2020–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:309748&r=all |
| By: | Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | I propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: A stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of inefficiency. I test it on a sample of 160 countries over the period 1950-2014. Temperature and rainfall determine production possibilities in both rich and poor countries; positively in cold countries and negatively in hot ones. Weather anomalies reduce inefficiency in rich countries but increase inefficiency in poor and hot countries; and more so in countries with low weather variability. The climate effect is larger that the weather effect. |
| Keywords: | climate change, weather shocks, economic growth, stochastic frontier analysis |
| JEL: | D24 O44 O47 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0521&r=all |
| By: | Görlich, Dennis; Hanley, Aoife; Liu, Wan-Hsin; Semrau, Finn Ole |
| Abstract: | The overarching aim of the study is to investigate the key factors that determine how and how intensively countries can be integrated into the coffee global value chain (GVC) and thus can better reap the globalization benefits. The empirical analysis shows how the international trade in coffee has developed across regions/countries over the past three decades. It provides evidence-based insights into the key determinants of countries' GVC integration in the coffee industry. It discusses countries' functional and product upgrading for their GVC integration. Based on the empirical results obtained, policy implications are derived to support the further development of the coffee GVC. This study serves as a background study for the Coffee Development Report 2020 in preparation by the International Coffee Organisation. |
| Keywords: | coffee,trade,development,global value chain,upgrading |
| JEL: | F14 O13 O30 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2170&r=all |
| By: | Zimmerman, Kara; Walters, Cory; Groskopf, Jessica; Stockton, Matt; Brooks, Kate |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2020–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:309765&r=all |
| By: | Erik Ansink (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Carmine Ornaghi (University of Southampton); Mirco Tonin (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of audits on water conservation, distinguishing between the information and technological components. We observe water consumption for up to 18 months for 10,000 households in the South East of England who received the visit of a so-called Green Doctor. We find that water-saving devices decrease water consumption by 2-4%, with an effect that is persistent over 18 months. Devices reducing water pressure are particularly effective, while shower timers are ineffective. The information component of the water audit has a large initial impact, but this gradually fades to a drop in consumption of 2% after 12 months. Technology appears to be more cost-effective than information provision and this can help in the design of policy interventions. |
| Keywords: | Water audits, Green Doctors, conservation, information, technology |
| JEL: | Q25 H42 D12 L95 |
| Date: | 2021–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20210014&r=all |
| By: | Gertner, Daniel; Dennis, Elliott |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2020–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:309757&r=all |
| By: | Zaharia, Marian; Gogonea, Rodica- Manuela; Balacescu, Aniela |
| Abstract: | Romania's significant agricultural productive potential can fully cover domestic demand and can ensure important export deliveries. However, the yield of cereal production is below the European Union average. Of these, an important place is occupied by wheat production. Taking into account these aspects, the paper investigates the potential of wheat production in Romanian counties starting from a set of indicators and using cluster analysis to identify similarities and disparities between counties from this point of view. Through this study we tried to provide answers to the questions: What is the configuration of wheat production yield at the regional level in Romania? What is its evolution over time? The results obtained during the research show that there are disparities in the counties of Romania in terms of the efficiency of wheat production in correlation with the resources used for its production. |
| Keywords: | agricultural sector, wheat production, production yield, regional development, Romania. |
| JEL: | C10 C38 O13 |
| Date: | 2020–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106301&r=all |
| By: | Argyris Sakalis (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, UK) |
| Abstract: | Contemporary beliefs about gender equality differ across countries. Beliefs towards gender equality focus on the position and role of women in society, which include beliefs for women’s participation in the labor market, higher education, and politics. I explore how historical differences in land ownership affected gender equality beliefs. Historical land inequality has a negative effect on beliefs about gender equality. I also trace historical land inequality on the beliefs of second generation immigrants. The mother’s country of origin appears to drive the effect. This finding is consistent with similar findings from cultural transmission literature. |
| Keywords: | Culture; Beliefs; Land Inequality; Gender Equality; Immigrants |
| JEL: | Q15 Z10 J16 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2021001&r=all |
| By: | Pierre-Alain Jayet (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE AgroParisTech, UMR Economie Publique, France); Ancuta Isbasoiu (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE AgroParisTech, UMR Economie Publique, France); Stéphane de Cara (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE AgroParisTech, UMR Economie Publique, France) |
| Abstract: | We assess the potential for increasing the net amount of food calories produced by French agriculture and the possible implications in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and agricultural area allocation. This analysis is based on an agricultural supply model for the European Union mainly with regard to arable crops, meadows, fodder crops, and the main animal products. The model calculates the variations in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions associated with the required level of production. Within the framework of a prospective approach carried out under the technical and economic conditions of the period 2007–2012, we calculate the extent of the changes in an agricultural production system, to which we assign the objective of increasing the net production of calories. In France, for an increase of 40 to 60% depending on the year, three-quarters of meadows would disappear, a large proportion of temporary meadows would switch to cereals, and fallows could exceed 20% of the total agricultural area. These changes would result from the sharp fall in livestock, especially of cattle for meat. The key factor in the analysis is animal feed, which, in addition to the decrease in grass consumption, would lead to a slight increase in fodder and cereals produced and consumed on the farm, and a sharp decrease of around 50% in the purchase of concentrated feeds. The reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is substantial, at least in terms of methane, and could exceed 30% of reference emissions in carbon dioxide equivalent. |
| Abstract: | Nous évaluons le potentiel d'augmentation de la quantité nette de calories alimentaires produites par l'agriculture française et les implications possibles en termes d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre et de répartition des surfaces agricoles. Cette analyse est basée sur un modèle d'approvisionnement agricole pour l'Union européenne principalement en ce qui concerne les cultures arables, les prairies, les cultures fourragères et les principaux produits animaux. Le modèle calcule les variations des émissions de gaz à effet de serre agricoles associées au niveau de production requis. Dans le cadre d'une approche prospective réalisée dans les conditions techniques et économiques de la période 2007-2012, nous calculons l'ampleur des changements d'un système de production agricole, auquel nous assignons l'objectif d'augmenter la production nette de calories. En France, pour une augmentation de 40 à 60% selon les années, les trois quarts des prairies disparaîtraient, une grande partie des prairies temporaires se transformeraient en céréales, et les jachères pourraient dépasser 20% de la surface agricole totale. Ces changements résulteraient de la forte baisse du cheptel, notamment des bovins de boucherie. Le facteur clé de l'analyse est l'alimentation animale qui, outre la diminution de la consommation d'herbe, entraînerait une légère augmentation des fourrages et des céréales produits et consommés dans l'exploitation, et une forte diminution d'environ 50 % des achats d'aliments concentrés. La réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre est substantielle, du moins en ce qui concerne le méthane, et pourrait dépasser 30 % des émissions de référence en équivalent dioxyde de carbone. |
| Keywords: | food calories,Agricultural production,Livestock,Feed,Greenhouse gas,mathematical programming model,Food calories,Livestock and feed,Greenhouse gas emissions,Mathematical programming model |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03132547&r=all |
| By: | Didier Raboisson (UMR ASTRE - Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ahmed Ferchiou (UMR ASTRE - Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Tifenn Corre (US ODR - Observatoire des Programmes Communautaires de Développement Rural - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sylvain Perez (UMR ASTRE - Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Pierre Sans (ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Guillaume Lhermie (UMR ASTRE - Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Marie Dervillé (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - ENSFEA - École Nationale Supérieure de Formation de l'Enseignement Agricole de Toulouse-Auzeville) |
| Abstract: | In France, veterinarians can both prescribe and deliver veterinary medicines, which is a questionable situation from the perspective of antimicrobial use (AMU) reduction to avoid antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This situation places veterinarians in direct commercial relationships with the pharmaceutical industry as purchase contracts are signed between veterinarians and pharmaceutical companies. The aim of the present work is to analyse the relationships between veterinarians and pharmaceutical firms in the oligopoly market context of French veterinary medicine to determine whether the prescription behaviour of practitioners can be biased by joint prescription and delivery. Therefore, we develop an analysis based on principal-agent theory. Contracts between pharmaceutical companies and veterinarians during the 2008–2014 period were analysed based on 382 contracts related to 47 drugs belonging to eight main pharmaceutical firms (2320 observations). The price per unit after rebate of each drug and contract was calculated. The descriptive analysis demonstrated high disparity among the contracts across pharmaceutical firms with regard to the provisions of the contracts and how they are presented. Then, linear regression was used to explain the price per unit after rebate based on the explanatory variables, which included the yearly purchase objective, year, type of drug and type of rebate. The decrease in price per unit after rebate for each extra €1000 purchase objective per drug category was established to be €0.061 per 100 kg body weight for anticoccidiosis treatments, €0.029 per 100 kg body weight for anti-inflammatories, €0.0125 per 100 kg body weight and €0.0845 per animal for antiparasitics, and €0.031 per animal for intramammary antimicrobials. Applying agency theory reveals that veterinarians can be considered agents in the case of monopolistic situations involving pharmaceutical firms; otherwise, veterinarians are considered principals (oligopolistic situations in which at least several medicines have similar indications). The present study does not provide evidence suggesting that joint prescription and delivery may introduce any potential prescription bias linked to conflicts of interest under the market conditions during the 2008–2014 period. |
| Keywords: | contract,pharmaceutical firm,drugs,veterinarian |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03148045&r=all |
| By: | Zhu Liu; Zhu Deng; Philippe Ciais; Jianguang Tan; Biqing Zhu; Steven J. Davis; Robbie Andrew; Olivier Boucher; Simon Ben Arous; Pep Canadel; Xinyu Dou; Pierre Friedlingstein; Pierre Gentine; Rui Guo; Chaopeng Hong; Robert B. Jackson; Daniel M. Kammen; Piyu Ke; Corinne Le Quere; Crippa Monica; Greet Janssens-Maenhout; Glen Peters; Katsumasa Tanaka; Yilong Wang; Bo Zheng; Haiwang Zhong; Taochun Sun; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |
| Abstract: | The diurnal cycle CO$_2$ emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reflect seasonality, weather conditions, working days, and more recently the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, for the first time we provide a daily CO$_2$ emission dataset for the whole year of 2020 calculated from inventory and near-real-time activity data (called Carbon Monitor project: https://carbonmonitor.org). It was previously suggested from preliminary estimates that did not cover the entire year of 2020 that the pandemics may have caused more than 8% annual decline of global CO$_2$ emissions. Here we show from detailed estimates of the full year data that the global reduction was only 5.4% (-1,901 MtCO$_2$, ). This decrease is 5 times larger than the annual emission drop at the peak of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. However, global CO$_2$ emissions gradually recovered towards 2019 levels from late April with global partial re-opening. More importantly, global CO$_2$ emissions even increased slightly by +0.9% in December 2020 compared with 2019, indicating the trends of rebound of global emissions. Later waves of COVID-19 infections in late 2020 and corresponding lockdowns have caused further CO$_2$ emissions reductions particularly in western countries, but to a much smaller extent than the declines in the first wave. That even substantial world-wide lockdowns of activity led to a one-time decline in global CO$_2$ emissions of only 5.4% in one year highlights the significant challenges for climate change mitigation that we face in the post-COVID era. These declines are significant, but will be quickly overtaken with new emissions unless the COVID-19 crisis is utilized as a break-point with our fossil-fuel trajectory, notably through policies that make the COVID-19 recovery an opportunity to green national energy and development plans. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2103.02526&r=all |