nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2021‒02‒01
thirty-two papers chosen by

  1. Agricultural development: New perspectives in a changing world: Synopsis By Otsuka, Keijiro, ed.; Fan, Shenggen, ed.
  2. Land, Climate, Energy, Agriculture and Development in the Sahel: Synthesis paper of case studies under the Sudano-Sahelian Initiative for Regional Development, Jobs, and Food Security By Mirzabaev, Alisher; Sakketa, Tekalign Gutu; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Dimobe, Kangbéni; Sanfo, Safietou; Admassie, Assefa; Abebaw, Degnet; Coulibaly, Ousmane Nafolo; Rabani, Adamou; Ibrahim, Boubacar; Bonkaney, Abdou Latif; Seyni, Abdoul Aziz; Idrissa, Mamoudou; Olayide, Olawale Emmanuel; Faye, Amy; Dièye, Mohamadou; Diakhaté, Pape Bilal; Bèye, Assane; Sall, Moussa; Diop, Mbaye; Osman, Abdelrahman Khidir; Ali, Adil M.; Garba, Issa; Baumüller, Heike; Ouedraogo, Souleymane; von Braun, Joachim
  3. Nigeria - Land, climate, energy, agriculture and development: A study in the Sudano-Sahel Initiative for Regional Development, Jobs, and Food Security By Olayide, Olawale Emmanuel
  4. Burkina Faso – Land, climate, energy, agriculture and development: A study in the Sudano-Sahel Initiative for Regional Development, Jobs, and Food Security By Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Dimobe, Kangbéni; Sanfo, Safietou
  5. Policy strategies and challenges for climate change mitigation in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector By Ben Henderson; Stefan Frank; Petr Havlik; Hugo Valin
  6. Adaptive measures for mountain Mediterranean forest ecosystem services under climate and land cover change in the Mont-Ventoux natural Regional Park, France By Laetitia Tufféry; Hendrik Davi; Noelia Lopez Garcia; Eric Rigolot; Florence Jean; Anne Stenger; Francois Lefevre
  7. Senegal - Land, climate, energy, agriculture and development: A study in the Sudano-Sahel Initiative for Regional Development, Jobs, and Food Security By Faye, Amy; Dièye, Mohamadou; Diakhaté, Pape Bilal; Bèye, Assane; Sall, Moussa; Diop, Mbaye
  8. A Randomized Controlled Trial Measuring Effects of Extra Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Benefits on Child Food Security in Low-Income Families in Rural Kentucky By Gregory Chojnacki; Andrew Gothro; Philip Gleason; Sarah Forrestal
  9. Have Conway's Predictions about the Effects of the Green Revolution been Realized? An Investigation of Six Decades of Bangladeshi Rice Data By Alauddin, Mohammad; Tisdell, Clement A.; Rashid Sarkar, Md Abdur
  10. Crop insurance and crop productivity: Evidence from rice farmers in eastern India By Kumar, Anjani; Saroj, Sunil; Mishra, Ashok K.
  11. Ecosystem services of Bulgarian agriculture By Bachev, Hrabrin
  12. Ethiopia – Land, energy, climate change, and agricultural development: A study in the Sudano-Sahel Initiative for Regional Development, Jobs, and Food Security By Admassie, Assefa; Abebaw, Degnet
  13. Measuring the Effects of a Demonstration to Reduce Childhood Food Insecurity: A Randomized Controlled Trial of the Nevada Healthy, Hunger Free Kids Project By Philip Gleason; Rebecca Kleinman; Gregory Chojnacki; Ronette R. Briefel; Sarah Forrestal
  14. Why do farmers care about rented land? By Leonhardt, Heidi; Braito, Michael; Penker, Marianne
  15. Incorporating time lags and uncertainty in cost-benefit analysis of water quality improvements – a case study of Limfjorden, Denmark By Tobias Holmsgaard Larsen; Thomas Lundhede; Søren Bøye Olsen; Brian H. Jacobsen
  16. A mathematical model of national-level food system sustainability By Conor Goold; Simone Pfuderer; William H. M. James; Nik Lomax; Fiona Smith; Lisa M. Collins
  17. Understanding Zero Deforestation and the High Carbon Stock Approach in a highly forested tropical country By Lyons-White, Joss; Yobo, Christian Mikolo; Ewers, Robert M.; Knight, Andrew T.
  18. Price Transmission in Conflict-Affected States: Evidence from Cereal Markets of Somalia By Hastings, Justin V.; Phillips, Sarah; Ubilava, David; Vasnev, Andrey
  19. Assessing Drought Hazard and Risk By World Bank
  20. A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial of a Home-Delivered Food Box on Food Security in Chickasaw Nation By Ronette R. Briefel; Gregory Chojnacki; Vivian Gabor; Sarah Forrestal; Rebecca Kleinman; Charlotte Cabili; Philip Gleason
  21. Poverty and Vulnerability in the Ethiopian Lowlands By World Bank Group; U.K. Department of International Development
  22. Seasonality Fingerprint on Global Trading of Food-commodities. A Data-mining Approach By Stefania Quaini; Sebastiano Saccani; Sergio Vergalli; Luigi Assom; Marco Beria; Alessandro Codello; Maurizio Monaco; Riccardo Sabatini
  23. The potential for industrial activity among EU regions: An empirical analysis at the NUTS2 level By Gornig, Martin; Werwatz, Axel
  24. A Randomized Controlled Trial of Three School Meals and Weekend Food Backpacks on Food Security in Virginia By Michael Burke; Charlotte Cabili; Danielle Berman; Sarah Forrestal; Philip Gleason
  25. Implications of the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement for Austria - A Preliminary Assess By Franz Sinabell; Julia Grübler; Oliver Reiter
  26. Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda By Amare, Mulubrhan; Shiferaw, Bekele; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Mavrotas, George
  27. Willingness to pay for clean air: Evidence from diesel vehicle registration restrictions in Japan By Shuhei Nishitateno; Paul J. Burke
  28. Targeted Investment for Food Access By Novak, David C.; Sullivan, James L.; Niles, Meredith T.
  29. Securing Forest Tenure Rights for Rural Development By World Bank
  30. Estimating the Impact of Weather on Agriculture By Jeffrey D. Michler; Anna Josephson; Talip Kilic; Siobhan Murray
  31. Economics of Multifunctional Forestry in the Sámi People Homeland Region By Vesa-Pekka Parkatti; Olli Tahvonen
  32. The impact of production intensity on agricultural land prices By Grau, Aaron; Jasic, Svetlana; Ritter, Matthias; Odening, Martin

  1. By: Otsuka, Keijiro, ed.; Fan, Shenggen, ed.
    Abstract: Agricultural Development: New Perspectives in a Changing World is the first comprehensive exploration of key emerging issues facing developing-country agriculture today, from rapid urbanization to rural transformation to climate change. In this four-part volume, top experts offer the latest research in the field of agricultural development. Using new lenses to examine today’s biggest challenges, contributors address topics such as nutrition and health, gender and household decision-making, agrifood value chains, natural resource management, and political economy. The book also covers most developing regions, providing a critical global perspective at a time when many pressing challenges extend beyond national borders. Tying all this together, Agricultural Development explores policy options and strategies for developing sustainable agriculture and reducing food insecurity and malnutrition. The changing global landscape combined with new and better data, technologies, and understanding means that agriculture can and must contribute to a wider range of development outcomes than ever before, including reducing poverty, ensuring adequate nutrition, creating strong food value chains, improving environmental sustainability, and promoting gender equity and equality. Agricultural Development: New Perspectives in a Changing World, with its unprecedented breadth and scope, will be an indispensable resource for the next generation of policymakers, researchers, and students dedicated to improving agriculture for global wellbeing.
    Keywords: ASIA; EAST ASIA; SOUTH ASIA; AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; CENTRAL AFRICA; EAST AFRICA; NORTH AFRICA; SOUTHERN AFRICA; WEST AFRICA; LATIN AMERICA; CARIBBEAN; CENTRAL ASIA; EUROPE; WORLD; agricultural development; agriculture; policies; agricultural policies; nutrition; food security; developing countries; water; natural resources; agricultural insurance; trade; gender; credit; households; rural areas; value chains; poverty; urban areas; urbanization; food systems; agricultural transformation; agricultural growth
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Mirzabaev, Alisher; Sakketa, Tekalign Gutu; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Dimobe, Kangbéni; Sanfo, Safietou; Admassie, Assefa; Abebaw, Degnet; Coulibaly, Ousmane Nafolo; Rabani, Adamou; Ibrahim, Boubacar; Bonkaney, Abdou Latif; Seyni, Abdoul Aziz; Idrissa, Mamoudou; Olayide, Olawale Emmanuel; Faye, Amy; Dièye, Mohamadou; Diakhaté, Pape Bilal; Bèye, Assane; Sall, Moussa; Diop, Mbaye; Osman, Abdelrahman Khidir; Ali, Adil M.; Garba, Issa; Baumüller, Heike; Ouedraogo, Souleymane; von Braun, Joachim
    Abstract: This paper synthesizes a set of national case studies conducted in the Sahelian countries during 2019-2020 as a collaboration between national universities and research institutes, and the Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, with contributions from the Agrhymet Regional Centre, Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS). These case studies provide up-to-date knowledge and critical insights on the nexus of land degradation, climate change and energy in the Sahel. The current synthesis paper highlights their major findings and provides crosscutting and cross-regional analytical conclusions. First, the synthesis paper explores current trends in the Sahel region on land use and land degradation, energy use and supply, climate change projections and impacts, as well as their interactions and links to agricultural growth, food security, poverty reduction, and peace in the region. Second, technological, socio-economic and policy solutions at the nexus of land, water, energy and climate challenges that enable environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive rural development in the Sahel are discussed, including their interactions and implications for peace and stability in the region. The findings show that such socio-economic solutions as improving access to markets, strengthening social safety nets, increasing investments to transport and energy infrastructures, promoting land tenure security, expanding off-farm employment opportunities can greatly contribute to rural development in the Sahel, particularly by aiding climate change resilience and sustainable land management. Key technological innovations highlighted across the case studies include expanding irrigation and adopting water use efficient irrigation techniques, crop diversification, expanding agricultural mechanization, investing into restoring and rehabilitating degraded lands through reforestation, afforestation and agroforestry practices. The key lessons learnt from ongoing national policy initiatives for sustainable development highlight the importance of active stakeholder consultation and participation in policy formulation, institution of effective policy monitoring and assessment mechanisms, and avoiding of excessive reliance on external sources of funding for the successful implementation of sustainable development policies and programs. Based on these findings, the synthesis paper proposes an agenda for applied research to provide guidance to and accompany promising development strategies in and for the region.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2021–01–19
  3. By: Olayide, Olawale Emmanuel
    Abstract: This review report involves the analysis and synthesis of literatures on climate change, land use, energy, livelihoods and sustainable development in Nigeria. The methodology employed in the review involves searching keywords related to the study objectives on relevant literature search engines and platforms, including Google Scholar and Cross Referencing through triangulation of search results. The articles were screened and validated for inclusion or exclusion based on relevance, content and context. The review process follows the sustainable livelihoods framework. The search returns are complimented with published reports. The report provides information on the current status and guidance on appropriate interventions and innovative investments in Nigeria. Specifically, this report provides a systematic literature review on: 1) situation and trends in energy and land use changes, 2) observed and projected impacts of climate change, 3) technological, socioeconomic and policy actions for sustainable land management and climate change adaptation and mitigation, 4) evaluation of existing major policies and investments, and 5) conclusion and policy implications. Based on the assessment of literature in this study, the key trends and problems include inadequate attention to the agricultural sector over the years, which has caused a major setback in food security and productivity. Climate change has further exacerbated the problem through desertification, drought and flooding across the country. The literature further revealed inadequate energy supply, distribution and low per capita consumption in Nigeria. The use of fuel wood for heating and cooking has significantly contributed to deforestation by worsening land degradation. Resulting implications are that food security is threatened and economic growth is hampered. Land degradation negatively impacts the environment and the rural poor whose livelihoods depend on it. Opportunities in agriculture and renewable energy should be further harnessed and forest and land use policies should be enforced to ensure sustainable livelihoods. In Nigeria, policies and investment plans on land use, energy/electricity and agricultural livelihoods are not coherent and lack consistency in implementation. Thus, lack of strong institutions has resulted in the weak performance witnessed in programme and policy implementation on climate change mitigation, land use, energy and sustainable development in Nigeria. Therefore, there is a need for productive, viable, sustainable policy and programmes that support climate change mitigation, land use, energy and sustainable development in Nigeria. Another important suggestion is the need for provision of renewable energy mix (off-grid) in forms that are easily accessible and affordable by households. Adequate attention should be paid to the provision of bio-energy and the wider bio-economy framework, including the transformation of solid waste, wood waste and agricultural waste into bio-gas and energy. Overall, the investment landscape in Nigeria is improving, and various opportunities for investment in agricultural livelihoods and value chains, renewable energy, carbon trading and green bonds should be harnessed through public-private partnerships.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2021–01–19
  4. By: Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Dimobe, Kangbéni; Sanfo, Safietou
    Abstract: In this working paper, the biophysical factors and socio-economic conditions that led to Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULC) and land degradation in Burkina Faso are reviewed. It is found that the country is densely populated and population continues to rise at a rate of more than 3% a year. However, nearly half of the population still lives below the poverty line. The electrification relies heavily on fossil fuels as the country has limited hydropower potential and solar energy received little investment. The rate of electrification is still very low, triggering the use of other sources of energy derived from firewood in rural areas. In addition, Burkina Faso has experienced land degradation in the North as a consequence of the 1970s and 1980s droughts that struck all the Sahel. Subsequently, migration took place from the degraded areas to the central, western and southern regions of the country causing further LULC changes. Furthermore, the country suffers from the effects of climate change and climate variability through increasing temperature trends, highly variable precipitation regimes and intensification of extreme events. Projected changes reveal prevailing conditions that indicate an increased risk of disasters in the agriculture, water and health sectors, among others. Due to this situation, some technological responses and policy actions have been developed for sustainable land management and climate change adaptation and mitigation. The adopted technological approaches include, among others, irrigation expansion and efficiency, rainwater harvesting, crop diversification, adoption of drought-tolerant crop varieties and rotational grazing. Some policies have been put in place to facilitate the adoption of these technologies. They consist of carbon trading, land-use zoning and integrated landscape planning, payment for ecosystem services, providing access to markets and agricultural advisory services, securing land tenure and empowering women. These actions are part of broader programs and investment plans that include, but not limited to, the Strategic Framework for Poverty Reduction (SFPR), the Strategy for Accelerated Growth and Sustainable Development (SCADD), the National Rural Sector Program (PNSR), the Resilience and Support Plan for Vulnerable Population (RSPVP) and the Cereals Price Stabilization Program (CPSP) among others.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2021–01–19
  5. By: Ben Henderson (OECD); Stefan Frank (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis); Petr Havlik (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis); Hugo Valin (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
    Abstract: This study uses GLOBIOM ‒ the most detailed global economic model of agriculture, land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ‒ to assess the effectiveness of different policies in cutting net emissions from the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, with a view to helping limit long-term global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2°C. Trade-offs between emission reductions and impacts on food producers, consumers and government budgets are also evaluated for each policy package. A full complement of policy options is deployed globally across AFOLU, comprising emission taxes for emitting AFOLU activities and subsidies rewarding carbon sequestration. Using a carbon price consistent with the 2°C target (1.5°C target), this is projected to mitigate 8 GtCO2 eq/yr (12 GtCO2 eq/yr) in 2050, representing 89% (129%) reduction in net AFOLU emissions, and 12% (21%) of total anthropogenic GHG emissions. Nearly two-thirds of the net emission reductions are from the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) component of AFOLU, mostly from reduced deforestation. A global carbon tax on AFOLU is found to be twice as effective in lowering emissions as an equivalently priced emission abatement subsidy because the latter keeps high emitting producers in business. However, a tax has trade-offs in terms of lower agricultural production and food consumption, which a subsidy avoids. A shift to lower emission diets by consumers has a much smaller impact on reducing agricultural emissions than any of the policy packages involving taxes on emissions.
    Keywords: Abatement subsidy, GHG emission tax, Paris Agreement
    JEL: C61 F18 Q11 Q18 Q54 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2021–01–28
  6. By: Laetitia Tufféry (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Hendrik Davi (URFM - Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Noelia Lopez Garcia (Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre - SLU - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Eric Rigolot (URFM - Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Florence Jean (URFM - Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anne Stenger (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UL - Université de Lorraine - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Francois Lefevre (URFM - Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Climate change (CC) and land use and land cover change (LULCC) threaten Mediterranean forests and the ecosystem services (ES) they provide. In complex socio-ecological systems and under high uncertainties, the resilience of ES has become the target objective for adaptive management strategies driven by decision-makers and local stakeholders. This work develops an integrative and territorial approach to combining biophysical modeling and local managers' assessments to elaborate scenarios of LULCC in response to climate and socioeconomic changes. It also evaluates the impacts of forest ecosystem changes on coupled ES for different time horizons for a case study of the mountain Mediterranean forests of Mont-Ventoux Natural Regional Park. The results demonstrate first that the future ES provisions predicted by biophysical modeling in this area are less affected by CC than expected by local managers. Furthermore, LULCC increases the changes in ES provision and accentuates the difference between climate scenarios. These results originate from a combination of two effects: (1) pessimistic predictions by local managers and, as a consequence, and (2) anticipatory actions that tend to reinforce or even accelerate the expected changes in the mountain Mediterranean forest area.
    Keywords: Mountain Mediterranean forests,Ecosystem services,Climate change,Adaptive scenarios,Socio-ecological approach,mountain Mediterranean forests,ecosystem services,climate change,adaptive scenarios,socio-ecological approach
    Date: 2020–12–01
  7. By: Faye, Amy; Dièye, Mohamadou; Diakhaté, Pape Bilal; Bèye, Assane; Sall, Moussa; Diop, Mbaye
    Abstract: Located in West Africa, Senegal is classified as a least-developed country that has historically had political stability and slow economic growth compared to the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, from 2012 onward, a new government has adopted new policies (infrastructure investments, liberalization of the groundnut sector and opening of the energy sector) to enhance economic growth and governance. Senegal thus experienced significant improvements in the period from 2012 to 2015. Future economic growth in Senegal can be significantly shaped by the energy sector regarding the recent oil and gas discoveries if the common resource curse can be avoided. The country is characterized by a poverty rate of 38 percent and fairly stable food security, with only 7.2 percent of the population being food insecure. However, some localized pockets of acute food needs remain. This is in part linked to agricultural production (the main source of income and labor), which depends highly on climatic hazards. Moreover, production resources such as land are highly vulnerable to climatic and anthropogenic factors. The country has a good access rate to electricity and safe water. However, access to electricity is unequal, with rural lagging behind urban areas. The country thus faces many challenges that threaten its economic growth: climate change and ensuring the accessibility and affordability of energy and land, which are key inputs to the main sectors of the economy such as agriculture. This report aims at investigating these interlinked challenges through a critical literature review. Results show that concerning land, its use and cover have hardly evolved over the past, except for agricultural land, which has significantly evolved from 1975 to 2013. However, the land has degraded a lot in the past several decades with up to 63-67 percent of the arable land being subject to land degradation due to climate hazards and its uses (e.g. population growth, Agro-sylvo-pastoral practices, wind and water erosion, salinization, bush fires...). Land degradation has multiple consequences, as it impacts livelihoods by limiting the availability of vital ecosystem services, increases the risk of poverty and translates into economic losses. Land degradation is estimated to cost 9 percent of the GDP annually (996 million USD). Concerning climate change, Senegal’s climate is of the Sudano-Sahelian type, marked by the alternation of a rainy season and a dry season, whose duration varies according to the region. Rainfall and its characteristics (onset and duration) and air temperature are two factors that have changed significantly since the early 1950s and 1970s. Decreased rainfall, delayed onset of rains, reduced duration of wintering and higher temperatures have adversely affected agricultural production systems and have put some risks on food security, health and livelihoods. Projections in 2035 and 2050 will accentuate the negative impacts already observed. In the face of such challenges, several strategies have been undertaken at different levels (household, community, policy, research, etc.) to reduce the negative effects of climate shocks and land degradations. At the household level, strategies have mostly consisted of diversifying revenue sources through remittances and non-agricultural activities. At the community level, organizational dynamics have been strengthened and enabled to reduce the vulnerability of women and children, to increase access to climate information, and so on. Finally, policy responses have mainly consisted of Senegal’s efforts to develop climate change adaptation and mitigation plans and strategies to protect the vulnerable key sectors from climate change and to contribute to emission reduction at the global level. The evaluation of key policies, the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution for climate governance, the PRACAS (for agriculture and food security) and land-use policies highlights the main factors for success and failure and identifies key challenges that the government of Senegal needs to pay close attention to in order to ensure greater policy design and implementation success in the future. The main challenges are related to governance, funding and monitoring and evaluation. In terms of governance, it is important to ensure the participatory design and implementation of the policies to foster stakeholders' ownership and thus facilitate their implication. As for funding, the key is to avoid building policy objectives based on unsecured funding by making realistic plans based on already secured funding (if possible, from the national budget). Finally, in terms of monitoring and evaluation, it is key to ensure the sustained availability of good-quality statistical data to allow better targeting of areas in which to intervene, better allocation of financial resources and better assessment of gaps, progress, and impact.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2021–01–19
  8. By: Gregory Chojnacki; Andrew Gothro; Philip Gleason; Sarah Forrestal
    Abstract: To reduce childhood hunger, the US Department of Agriculture funded several innovative demonstration projects, including the Kentucky Ticket to Healthy Food project.
    Keywords: Food security, Hunger, Randomized trial, SNAP, Food expenditures
  9. By: Alauddin, Mohammad; Tisdell, Clement A.; Rashid Sarkar, Md Abdur
    Abstract: This is the first empirical evaluation of Conway’s pioneering predictions about the effects of the Green Revolution on crop yield levels, their sustainability and variability in a long-term context using a holistic approach involving economic, environmental, and ecological factors. It analyses trends in Bangladeshi rice production and identifies changing relative contributions to variations in aggregate rice output of alterations in aggregate rice yields and in the rice area cropped. Rice yields rose substantially following the Green Revolution and have been the major contributor to increasing rice output but have become almost stationary recently. This stationarity (if sustained) could result in Bangladesh finding it increasingly difficult to feed its growing population. Because of the high dependency of Bangladesh on just a few HYVs of rice (and its shrinking gene pool) the productivity of its rice crop could be vulnerable to major ecological and environmental shocks. We found that until recently, the absolute variability of rice yields was higher after the early establishment of the Green Revolution than prior to it. The relative variations in rice yields away from their trend values were smaller after the Green Revolution was well established and continued to fall with the widespread adoption of the technologies. We highlighted the trio of general factors determining rice yields. Holistic analysis requires these all to be considered. However, non-economists often overlook economic factors explored here in assessing influences on the crop yield levels while economists often do not pay adequate attention to ecological and environmental factors. Furthermore, this study contributes to the land-saving controversy involving the intensification of agriculture. The analytical framework we have employed can be adapted to other countries with similar biophysical and demographic characteristics.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2021–01–25
  10. By: Kumar, Anjani; Saroj, Sunil; Mishra, Ashok K.
    Abstract: The paper explores the spread of crop insurance in India and analyzes the factors affecting the demand for crop insurance. The study also assesses the impact of crop insurance on the rice yields of smallholder rice producers. Using data from a large farm-level survey from eastern India, the study tests for robustness of the findings after controlling for other covariates and endogeneity, using propensity score matching, coarsened exact matching, and endogenous switching regression models. Results indicate a positive and significant impact of crop insurance on rice yields.
    Keywords: INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; crops; farmers; crop insurance; insurance; farm size; rice; food security; treatment effects; rice yield
    Date: 2021
  11. By: Bachev, Hrabrin
    Abstract: Agricultural ecosystems of different types and their specific “agro-ecosystem” services are among the most widespread in the world. However, in Bulgaria the state of practical progression of the studies of agricultural services in mostly at the methodological level and very limited to general classification and qualitative “assessments”. This article tries to fill the gap and present initial results of large scale studies on the structure and importance of agroecosystem services in Bulgaria. The identification of the type, size, efficiency and importance of “produced” services of agro-systems is based on the assessments of the managers of 324 “typical” farms of different legal status, size, production specialization, ecological and geographical location. The study has found out that there are significant differences in the participation and contribution of agricultural holdings in the protection and provision of agro-ecosystem services in the various specific and principled ecosystems of the country, and major subsectors of agricultural production. The latter requires special measures to improve, diversify and intensify this activity of farmers through training, information, exchange of experience, public incentives and support, etc. Analyzes of the structure and importance of agro-ecosystem services in the country are to be expanded by improving the accuracy and representativeness of the information by increasing the number of surveyed farms, avoiding “double” accounting, applying statistical methods to verify the reliability, special "training" of and those involved in surveys, applying direct field measurements experts and stakeholders involvement etc.
    Keywords: ecosystem services, agriculture, amount, structure, importance, Bulgaria
    JEL: Q1 Q12 Q13 Q15 Q18 Q2 Q3
    Date: 2021–01–05
  12. By: Admassie, Assefa; Abebaw, Degnet
    Abstract: Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Sub-Saharan Africa with a population of more than 110 million. With over 10 percent growth rate, the Ethiopian economy has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world over the last one and half decades. By any measure agriculture is the dominant economic sector in the country accounting for a sizeable portion of the GDP growth, generating most of the export earnings and employing most of the labour force. The country has diverse agro-ecological conditions which are suitable for growing both temperate and tropical food and industrial crops. This study has tried to review the trends in environment conditions such as energy use, land cover and land use changes as well as the impact of climate change and the policy responses of the Government of Ethiopia. The review clearly shows that Ethiopia is still a poor country with more than one fifth of the population living below the national poverty line. Food insecurity continues to be a big challenge for millions of Ethiopians. Despite being the dominant economic sector, agricultural production is characterized as a low-input-low productivity sector. Land degradation is a very serious problem in Ethiopia due to the fact that many parts of the Ethiopian highlands are mountainous and rugged. Even though Ethiopia has huge potential for generating renewable energy, the majority of the Ethiopian population still relies on biomass energy sources such as wood, animal dung and crop residues. These environmental challenges are also exacerbated due to the effect of climate change. To mitigate the impact of land degradation, deforestation, and climate change, the Government of Ethiopia has formulated and implemented several policies. The Agricultural Growth Program (AGP), the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), the Sustainable Land Management Program (SLM) and the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy are the major programs being implemented to address these environmental challenges. Indeed, these interventions have made noticeable contributions to curb the challenges.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2021–01–19
  13. By: Philip Gleason; Rebecca Kleinman; Gregory Chojnacki; Ronette R. Briefel; Sarah Forrestal
    Abstract: To reduce childhood hunger, the US Department of Agriculture funded a set of demonstration projects, including the Nevada Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids (HHFK) project.
    Keywords: Food security, Hunger, Young children, Randomized trial, SNAP, Food expenditures
  14. By: Leonhardt, Heidi; Braito, Michael; Penker, Marianne
    Abstract: Rental shares of agricultural land are increasing in many countries, as are soil degradation and erosion. Theory suggests that these trends may be correlated, yet empirical findings are ambiguous. This research investigates the relationship between land tenure and farmers' soil management and aims to disentangle the mechanisms involved. We survey Austrian crop farmers and find no differences in farmers' soil management practices between rented and owned land. We consider several explanatory factors such as contract details, landlord-tenant relationships, and plot characteristics and find that these are important factors mediating the conventionally assumed negative effect of cropland leasing on soil conservation.
    Keywords: Property rights,Land ownership,Land rental,Soil conservation,Farmer behaviour,Landlord-tenant relationship
    JEL: Q15 Q24
    Date: 2019
  15. By: Tobias Holmsgaard Larsen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Thomas Lundhede (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Søren Bøye Olsen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Brian H. Jacobsen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: Cost-benefit analyses are commonly applied to assess the net welfare effects of policies to improve surface water quality. These analyses often disregard the biophysical fact that from implementation of policy measures to resulting improvements on water quality there will typically be considerable time lags, and in many cases there is a risk that the measures will not actually lead to the expected improvement. Based on a case study, we show that explicitly accounting for such time lags and outcome uncertainty in the benefit estimation can have non-negligible impacts on cost-benefit analysis findings. Our analysis indicates that reaching the EU Water Framework Directive target for our case study will lead to large and robust welfare increases. Even if the target proves more difficult or more costly to reach than expected with known policy measures, our results suggest that attempting to do so will still lead to a net welfare gain to society. Increasing time lags and uncertainty regarding water quality improvements do decrease the benefits, but the benefits still outweigh the aggregate costs of policy measures. Only in the worst case scenario, combining a long time lag and a high level of outcome uncertainty for the water quality improvement with relatively high costs of policy measures, we are close to a break-even. Hence, we do not find evidence supporting a case for disproportional cost exemption from the WFD target being relevant for the Limfjorden case.
    Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, disproportional costs, time lags, uncertainty, water quality
    JEL: D61 Q25 Q51 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2021–01
  16. By: Conor Goold; Simone Pfuderer; William H. M. James; Nik Lomax; Fiona Smith; Lisa M. Collins
    Abstract: The global food system faces various endogeneous and exogeneous, biotic and abiotic risk factors, including a rising human population, higher population densities, price volatility and climate change. Quantitative models play an important role in understanding food systems' expected responses to shocks and stresses. Here, we present a stylised mathematical model of a national-level food system that incorporates domestic supply of a food commodity, international trade, consumer demand, and food commodity price. We derive a critical compound parameter signalling when domestic supply will become unsustainable and the food system entirely dependent on imports, which results in higher commodity prices, lower consumer demand and lower inventory levels. Using Bayesian estimation, we apply the dynamic food systems model to infer the sustainability of the UK pork industry. We find that the UK pork industry is currently sustainable but because the industry is dependent on imports to meet demand, a decrease in self-sufficiency below 50% (current levels are 60-65%) would lead it close to the critical boundary signalling its collapse. Our model provides a theoretical foundation for future work to determine more complex causal drivers of food system vulnerability.
    Date: 2020–12
  17. By: Lyons-White, Joss; Yobo, Christian Mikolo; Ewers, Robert M.; Knight, Andrew T.
    Abstract: “Zero deforestation” commitments are pledges by companies to avoid deforestation when producing palm oil. Zero deforestation can be implemented using the High Carbon Stock Approach (HCSA), a tool that distinguishes forests from degraded land which can be developed. In highly forested countries like Gabon, zero deforestation may conflict with national economic goals involving palm oil and other agricultural commodities. We investigated perspectives of stakeholders in Gabon about zero deforestation and the HCSA using Critical Systems Heuristics, a systems thinking methodology. In 25 interviews with government, NGOs, companies, and research institutions, and two focus groups with rural communities, we identified three contrasting perspectives on forest conservation and agro-industrial development: international, national, and local. Zero deforestation represents an international perspective that marginalises issues from a national perspective. This may produce unintended consequences that undermine the legitimacy of zero deforestation, including conversion of Gabon’s savannahs and disincentives for sustainable business development. From a local perspective, zero deforestation is embedded in an agro-industrial vision that marginalises value judgments concerning forests and traditional livelihoods. Gabon’s National Land Use Plan could help reconcile the three perspectives but requires recognition by international standards. Adapting the HCSA should also be considered. Research is required to ensure proposed institutional arrangements deliver equitable multi-stakeholder participation in land-use planning. Gabon’s case shows the applicability of zero deforestation to all highly forested countries cannot be assumed. Improved international understanding of national contexts, and flexibility in applying “zero deforestation”, is important for designing effective and equitable international standards for sustainable agricultural production.
    Date: 2021–01–14
  18. By: Hastings, Justin V.; Phillips, Sarah; Ubilava, David; Vasnev, Andrey
    Abstract: How integrated are agricultural markets in conflict-affected states? We answer this question by examining the dynamics of monthly price series of rice, maize, and sorghum across eleven cities (markets) of Somalia. Using conflict as a source of transaction costs between spatially connected markets, we examine its role in price transmission between the markets in a panel smooth transition regression framework. We find that in the case of rice—an imported cereal grain—conflict tends to mitigate the speed of price transmission between markets. By contrast, we find no evidence of conflict-related transaction costs in the case of maize and sorghum—commodities that are locally produced, particularly in the central and southern parts of Somalia. In all instances, we find that there is some degree of spatial integration among cereal markets around the country, perhaps partly due to informal institutions that can bridge the divides created by conflict, distance, and internal political fragmentation. These findings add crucial detail to the literature concerned with the role of commodity prices on poverty and food security in conflict-affected states.
    Keywords: cereal prices, market integration; panel smooth transition regression; price transmission; Somalia
    Date: 2020–12
  19. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Agriculture - Climate Change and Agriculture Environment - Climate Change Impacts Environment - Climate Change and Environment Environment - Water Resources Management Water Resources - Drought Management Water Resources - Hydrology
    Date: 2019
  20. By: Ronette R. Briefel; Gregory Chojnacki; Vivian Gabor; Sarah Forrestal; Rebecca Kleinman; Charlotte Cabili; Philip Gleason
    Abstract: The 2010 Child Nutrition reauthorization called for the independent evaluation of innovative strategies to reduce the risk of childhood hunger or improve the food security status of households with children.
    Keywords: Food security, Schoolchildren, Randomized controlled trial, Indian tribal organization, Home-delivered food box
  21. By: World Bank Group; U.K. Department of International Development
    Keywords: Agriculture - Climate Change and Agriculture Agriculture - Livestock & Animal Husbandry Environment - Adaptation to Climate Change Environment - Climate Change Impacts Environment - Climate Change and Environment Environment - Sustainable Land Management Poverty Reduction - Poverty, Environment and Development
    Date: 2019
  22. By: Stefania Quaini (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Sebastiano Saccani (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Sergio Vergalli (Fondazione Eni and University of Brescia); Luigi Assom; Marco Beria; Alessandro Codello (Instituto de Fisica, Faculdad de Ingenieria, Universidad de la Republica); Maurizio Monaco; Riccardo Sabatini
    Abstract: We analyze the United Nations commodities trade database (UN comtrade), comprised of international commodities exchanges in volume and price with monthly resolution. We introduce a trade impact index to quantify the impact, in terms of distance travelled, of importing a specific food raw commodity in a specific period of the year and in a specific country of the world. This index captures the seasonal exchange of raw commodities in an insightful and concise manner.
    Keywords: Trade, Food Commodities, Resource Access and Availability, Index, Fingerprint, Data Mining
    JEL: F18 Q17 C8 C43
    Date: 2020–10
  23. By: Gornig, Martin; Werwatz, Axel
    Abstract: In the last decade, many parts of the world experienced severe increases in agricultural land prices. This price surge, however, did not take place evenly in space and time. To better understand the spatial and temporal behavior of land prices, we employ a price diffusion model that combines features of market integration models and spatial econometric models. An application of this model to farmland prices in Germany shows that prices on a county-level are cointegrated. Apart from convergence towards a long-run equilibrium, we find that price transmission also proceeds through short-term adjustments caused by neighboring regions.
    Keywords: Agricultural land markets,price diffusion,spatial dependence,ripple effect
    JEL: Q24 C23
    Date: 2019
  24. By: Michael Burke; Charlotte Cabili; Danielle Berman; Sarah Forrestal; Philip Gleason
    Abstract: Food insecurity is a concern for the health and well-being of low-income children in the United States. School-based nutrition assistance programs aim to reduce food insecurity; however, there is limited evidence of their combined impact on food insecurity among children (FI-C).
    Keywords: Food security, National School Lunch Program, School Breakfast Program, Child and Adult Care Food Program, Food backpacks
  25. By: Franz Sinabell; Julia Grübler; Oliver Reiter
    Abstract: This study presents quantitative and qualitative assessments of potential consequences of the trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur countries. It is embedded in a wider Association Agreement and was made public in summer 2019. The focus is on Austria. One objective of the agreement is to liberalise trade and to improve conditions for making investments in order to create jobs and value added and to give consumers in both regions better access to a wide range of products and services. A gravity model analysis shows that average income gains per person are remarkably similar in both regions. However, the economies in Mercosur countries will benefit more than EU Member States economies in relative terms. A second objective of the agreement is to meet targets that go beyond immediate economic benefits, such as to further sustainable development, to prevent environmental deterioration, to avoid social frictions and to smooth adaptation processes. A qualitative comparison shows the advancements compared to other trade agreements and the limitations of trade agreements to address social and environmental concerns. An in depth-appraisal of the provisions for agriculture shows potential benefits and costs for consumers and farmers in both regions.
    Keywords: trade liberalisation, EU, MERCOSUR, gravity model, environment, agriculture
    JEL: F13 F15 F17 F18 Q17
    Date: 2020–08
  26. By: Amare, Mulubrhan; Shiferaw, Bekele; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Mavrotas, George
    Abstract: This paper uses multiple rounds of household survey panel data to assess the distributional implications of variability in agricultural productivity in Nigeria and Uganda. It uses both a conventional decomposition and a regression-based inequality decomposition to estimate the impact of climate-induced variability in agricultural productivity. To mitigate the endogeneity associated with unobserved time-invariant and time-variant household fixed effects, we use rainfall shocks as a proxy for estimating the exogenous variability in agricultural productivity that affects consumption. Results suggest that a 10 percent increase in the variability of agricultural productivity tends to decrease household consumption by 38 and 52 percent on average for Nigeria and Uganda, respectively. Controlling for other factors, variability in agricultural productivity contributed to between 25 and 43 percent of consumption inequality between 2010 and 2015 for Nigeria; and 16 and 31 percent of consumption inequality between 2009 and 2011 for Uganda. We also show that variability in agricultural productivity increases changes in consumption inequality over time.
    Keywords: NIGERIA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; UGANDA; EAST AFRICA; agricultural productivity; household consumption; rural areas; climate; shock; consumption; equality; inequality
    Date: 2020
  27. By: Shuhei Nishitateno (School of Policy Studies, Kwansei Gakuin University); Paul J. Burke (Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University)
    Abstract: This paper documents the effect of diesel vehicle registration restrictions introduced in Japan in 2001 in reducing suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations. The focus is on Aichi and Mie prefectures, home to a number of municipalities that were required to implement these restrictions in 2001. The paper then uses this intervention to estimate the causal effect of air pollution on land values. We obtain estimates of the elasticity of residential land prices with respect to SPM concentration of between –0.4 and –1.0. The revealed willingness to pay for the improvements in air quality induced by the intervention in Aichi and Mie is estimated at about US$7 billion. We also find evidence that net in-migration appears to be a key mechanism via which clean air was capitalized into higher land values. The results are robust to a number of estimation approaches and sample restrictions.
    Date: 2021–01
  28. By: Novak, David C.; Sullivan, James L.; Niles, Meredith T.
    Abstract: This project focuses on modeling access to food locations by identifying the most critical roadway links in a transportation network. This project extends the Critical Closeness Accessibility (CCA) measure developed by Novak and Sullivan (2014) to identify the roadway infrastructure components that are most critical with respect to food accessibility. Specifically, origin and destination weighting are included for the application of food security, where origins are weighted according to household vulnerability and destinations are weighted by retail-grocery square footage. The CCA is further extended by calibrating the trip impedance constant, ω, in the original formulation of the CCA with actual grocery-shopping data from the National Household Travel Survey. This calibration modifies the functional form of the accessibility measure to address trips focused on food access and thus incorporates realistic travel expectations for retail grocery familiarity of households. The project also provides a unique method for estimating household-level vulnerability characteristics using population synthesis. The modification of the CCA to address food accessibility can be used to support more targeted investment in transportation assets, as the CCA is indexed to specific roadway links in the network. The methodology is demonstrated using the Travel Demand Model of Chittenden County, Vermont. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Accessibility, food access, vulnerability, network disruption, critical closeness accessibility
    Date: 2021–01–01
  29. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Communities and Human Settlements - Indigenous Communities Communities and Human Settlements - Land Use and Policies Environment - Forests and Forestry Environment - Sustainable Land Management Social Development - Community Development and Empowerment
    Date: 2019–03
  30. By: Jeffrey D. Michler; Anna Josephson; Talip Kilic; Siobhan Murray
    Abstract: We quantify the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurement error in satellite weather data on modeling agricultural production, agricultural productivity, and resilience outcomes. In order to provide rigor to our approach, we combine geospatial weather data from a variety of satellite sources with the geo-referenced household survey data from four sub-Saharan African countries that are part of the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) initiative. Our goal is to provide systematic evidence on which weather metrics have strong predictive power over a large set of crops and countries and which metrics are only useful in highly specific settings.
    Date: 2020–12
  31. By: Vesa-Pekka Parkatti (University of Helsinki); Olli Tahvonen (University of Helsinki)
    Abstract: We study forestry in the Sámi people homeland region to understand an ongoing conflict between conventional forest logging and maintaining forests as reindeer pastures for indigenous people. We use a detailed model that simultaneously includes timber production, carbon storage in living biomass, deadwood and wood products, negative effects on reindeer husbandry, and a flexible optimization between rotation forestry (cf. clearcuts) and forestry that maintains continuous forestcover. We show that the profitability of conventional forestry is based on utilizing existing forest stands, an outcome that can be understood as forest capital mining. By varying the carbon price between €0 tCO2 and €40 tCO2, we show that the optimal solutions based on a 3% interest rate are always continuous cover forestry. A carbon price of €60 - €100tCO2 implies that it is optimal to give up timber production and utilize forests for carbon storage and reindeer pasture only. Given the present forest management practices and an old-growth forest as the initial state, the carbon choke price decreases to €14–€20 CO2. The optimal choice between timber production and utilizing forests purely for carbon storage and reindeer husbandry may depend on the initial forest state. The choice between maintaining old-growth forest and converting land to timber production, as determined by dynamic economic analysis, is incompatible with the frequently applied approach based on carbon debt and the carbon payback period.
    Keywords: Arctic Forestry, Indigenous Peoples, Sámi, Continuous Cover Forestry, Uneven†Aged Forestry, Carbon Sequestration, Reindeer Husbandry, Carbon Debt, Payback Period
    JEL: Q2 Q23 Q24 Q28
    Date: 2020–12
  32. By: Grau, Aaron; Jasic, Svetlana; Ritter, Matthias; Odening, Martin
    Abstract: This paper is one of the first attempts to utilize the theoretical framework of the new economic geography for explaining agricultural land prices. We adopt a model proposed by Pflüger and Tabuchi (2010), which allows to consider land as a production factor. We derive a short-run equilibrium that relates land rental prices to production intensity. The latter is measured as labor intensity, i.e., the ratio of labor cost and land used for agricultural production and additionally by livestock density. The model is applied to the agricultural sector in West Germany using county level price and cost data of the FADN. A spatial lag model clearly rejects the null hypothesis of no impact of labor and livestock intensity on land rental prices.
    Keywords: New economic geography,agglomeration,production clusters,Germany
    JEL: O41 Q11 R12
    Date: 2019

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.