nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2020‒06‒08
33 papers chosen by

  1. The role of agriculture in reducing child undernutrition in Nigeria By Amare, Mulubrhan; Balana, Bedru; Ogunniyi, Adebayo
  2. EU Common Agricultural Policy - Impacts on Trade with Africa and African Agricultural Development By Kornher, Lukas; von Braun, Joachim
  3. Resource Requirements of Food Demand By Canning, Patrick; Rehkamp, Sarah; Hitaj, Claudia; Peters, Christian
  4. CAP measures towards environmental sustainability: Trade opportunities for Africa? By Latka, Catharina; Heckelei, Thomas; Kuhn, Arnim; Witzke, Heinz-Peter; Kornher, Lukas
  5. Rationalization of wheat markets in Pakistan: Policy options By Rana, Abdul Wajid
  6. Measuring macro- and micronutrient intake in multi-purpose surveys: evidence from a survey experiment in Tanzania By Hannah Ameye; Joachim De Weerdt; John Gibson
  7. Working Paper 314 - Within-Season Response to Warmer Temperatures: Defensive Investments by Kenyan Farmers By Maulik Jagnani; Christopher B. Barrett; Yanyan Liu; Liangzhi You
  8. Spatial Effects of Nutrient Pollution on Drinking Water Production By Mosheim, Roberto; Sickles, Robin C.
  9. The Kuznets Curve for the Sustainable Environment and Economic Growth By Mishra, Mukesh Kumar
  10. Increasing the adoption of conservation agriculture: A framed field experiment in Northern Ghana By Ambler, Kate; de Brauw, Alan; Murphy, Mike
  11. Climate Risk Assessment of the Sovereign Bond Portfolio of European Insurers By Stefano Battiston; Petr Jakubik; Irene Monasterolo; Keywan Riahi; Bas van Ruijven
  12. Commodity-dependent countries in the COVID-19 crisis By Tröster, Bernhard
  13. Poinsettia Assembly and Selling Emotion: High Value Agricultural Exports in Ethiopia By Christopher CRAMER
  14. African commitments for agricultural development goals and milestones for Ethiopia By Mitik, Lulit; Fofana, Ismaël; Diallo, Mariam Amadou
  15. A propensity score matching analysis of the relationship between forest resources and household welfare in Vietnam By Hoang Van, Cuong Van; Tran Quang, Tuyen; Nguyen Thi, Yen; Lan Nguyen, Thanh
  16. A bottom-up approach for a private fisheries extension system: A framework and action plan for an aqua-chamber of commerce in India By Ojha, Shekhar Nath; Dey, Suman; Babu, Suresh Chandra
  17. Hospitality Industry 4.0 and Climate Change By Adel Ben Youssef; Adelina Zeqiri
  18. Trade tensions in LAC: Modeling outcomes By Laborde Debucquet, David; Piñeiro, Valeria
  19. Global experiences on waste processing with black soldier fly (Hermetia illucens): from technology to business. (Resource Recovery and Reuse Series 16) By Gabrielle Joly; Josiane Nikiema
  20. Livestock in Central Asia: From rural subsistence to engine of growth? By Robinson, Sarah
  21. The impact of COVID-19 on Tunisia’s economy, agri-food system, and households By ElKadhi, Zouhair; Elsabbagh, Dalia; Frija, Aymen; Lakoud, Thouraya; Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens
  22. Impact of a Severe Drought on Education: More Schooling but Less Learning By Ardyn Nordstrom; Christopher Cotton
  23. Poor dietary quality is Nigeria’s key nutrition problem By Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Babatunde, Raphael O.; Andam, Kwaw S.
  24. Biofortification: A food-systems solution to help end hidden hunger By HarvestPlus; Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
  25. Strategies for sustainable upgrading in global value chains: The Egyptian textile and apparel sector By Grumiller, Jan; Raza, Werner G.; Grohs, Hannes
  26. Impact of Energy Mix on Nitrous Oxide Emissions: An Environmental Kuznets Curve approach for APEC countries By Sinha, Avik; Sengupta, Tuhin
  27. The political economy of negotiating international carbon markets By Arvaniti, Maria; Habla, Wolfgang
  28. Is Environmental Tax Harmonization Desirable in Global Value Chains? By Haitao Cheng; Hayato Kato; Ayako Obashi
  29. ECB Monetary Policy and Commodity Prices By Shahriyar Aliyev; Evzen Kocenda
  30. Can rainfall shocks enhance access to rented land? Evidence from Malawi By Tione, Sarah E.; Holden, Stein T.
  31. Agricultural Revolution and Industrialization By Chu, Angus C.; Peretto, Pietro; Wang, Xilin
  32. Using environmental knowledge brokers to promote deep green agri-environment measures By Melindi-Ghidi, P.; Dedeurwaerdere, T.; Fabbri, G.
  33. Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emission: A survey of empirical literature By Shahbaz, Muhammad; Sinha, Avik

  1. By: Amare, Mulubrhan; Balana, Bedru; Ogunniyi, Adebayo
    Abstract: This study examines the effect of agricultural productivity change on child nutritional outcomes in Nigeria. Using several waves of micro-level panel data from Nigeria, we first show that high temperature (heat stress) reduces agricultural productivity change. A one percent increase in high temperatures during the crop growth period result in a 4 percent decrease in agricultural productivity. More importantly, our analysis provides several important insights on the implications of agricultural productivity change for reducing child undernutrition. The results show that agricultural productivity growth has a positive effect on child nutritional outcomes, measured by child height-for-age and weight-for-age. The main channel through which agricultural productivity growth affects child nutritional outcomes is by increasing food production for own household consumption. This suggests that productivity-enhancing investments in the agricultural sector could have a direct impact on child nutritional outcomes among smallholder households in Nigeria. The results also show that agricultural productivity change has higher impact for households who have better access to markets and a higher educational level. Interventions and policies geared towards intensification of agricultural production need to be complemented with strategies for widening educational programs and improving farmers’ access to markets. to induce incentives for increased production.
    Keywords: NIGERIA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; child nutrition; nutrition; malnutrition; agricultural productivity; agriculture; agricultural policies; food prices; market access; human capital; agricultural productivity change; child nutritional outcomes
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Kornher, Lukas; von Braun, Joachim
    Abstract: Motivations and Aims of the Study This study is prompted by the pending further development of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) after 2020 and the consideration that, in the context of this potential change of EU agricultural policy, greater emphasis should be laid on African development, besides environmental, climate, health and distributional aspects. The aim of this study is to shed light on the impacts of European agricultural and trade policies on agricultural development in Africa, and the coherence of EU policies with development policy objectives. The consequences of Coronavirus controlling attempts that include border closures and market shut downs in both Europe and Africa have highlighted the key role of trade and market policies for development. The decision to establish the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) provides another important reason to revisit EU – Africa trade policy relations in the important fields of food and agriculture. With a total volume of 400 billion euros for the 7-year budget period, which currently represents about 36% of the total budget (EU28), CAP spending is the largest expenditure item in the EU budget. Total EU development expenditures for Africa amount to about one-tenth of that, and the share for agricultural development and food security is only about 2% of the EU agricultural budget. In view of the goal to establish coherence between the agricultural and development policy of the EU, and in view of the high risks for food security in Africa due to the economic consequences of COVID-19, this budget imbalance must not be ignored. Moreover, Africa's opportunities and problems are becoming increasingly relevant for the EU, future EU policy should be examined whether they benefits Africa's agricultural development. This includes investment in sustainable agricultural productivity, infrastructure, and institutions that are conducive to trade. Common Agricultural Policy post-2020 On June 1, 2018, the European Commission presented the draft legislation on the future of the CAP for the period after 2020. It provides for a small reduction in the total volume of agricultural subsidies for its now 27 Member States. The proposal is based on higher ambitions with regard to environmental protection and climate change through mandatory ecological programs and an enhanced linkage of direct payments to the greening rules. A stronger environmental orientation is also considered very likely among the experts interviewed for this study. However, the draft also envisages changing the green architecture of the CAP and giving Member States greater freedom in achieving the targets set out in national strategic plans. This flexibility could lead to an increase in the use of coupled subsidies in some Member States, which in turn would increase export surpluses for some agricultural products. This could lead to renewed incoherence with agricultural development policy. Effects of European agricultural and trade policy in Africa Trade policy: In its present form, the CAP continues to promote food exports. In 2018, wheat (€3.3 billion), meat (€1 billion), dairy products (€1.7 billion) and processed food (€6 billion) were the main EU exports to Africa. Among these goods, the share of Africa’s imports from the EU ranges from 25% (meat) to 44% (dairy products). In the current debate on CAP adjustments, effects on developing countries have so far played a minor role, although the EU describes coherence with its development policy objectives as an important element of its policy. There is widespread agreement that, in the past, coupled subsidy payments, export refunds, and direct market interventions have made a major contribution to increasing agricultural production in the EU and have led to the EU’s increased export surplus. Low-priced food imports have weakened the agricultural sectors of African countries in the long-term and hindered the development of competitive agricultural production. These earlier effects cannot be corrected in the quickly because agricultural productivity depends on long standing favorable framework conditions and long-term investments in innovation. Regulatory framework: Although African raw agricultural material exports to the EU are largely free of duties under various agreements, processed products are only free of duties if it can be ruled out under the "country of origin" principle that components of the final good were imported from a third country. The proof of origin requires a list of the production stages and ingredients as well as their origin. This condition often makes it difficult for African exporters to export processed agricultural products to Europe, hindering the creation of regional value chains. De-bureaucratized regulations (supported by advice from development cooperation) should create flexibility if the majority of the ingredients originate from the partner country or the respective regional economic zone. Social and hygiene standards for goods imported into the EU are necessary but must be transparent. According to EU regulations, social standards must comply with the principles of the International Labour Organization (ILO). However, currently, these are not implemented consistently. It would be helpful if the EU provided more support to improve standards in Africa; otherwise, the export potential of African countries cannot be fully exploited. This should also include capacity strengthening in Africa to check the adherence to health standards of EU food products exported to Africa. Effects of direct payments: Direct payments to EU farmers continue to account for up to 50% of total farm income in the EU. As shown by the model simulations, a reduction in direct payments is not expected to have a significant impact on food production in Africa in the short-term because the decline in imports from the EU will largely be offset by imports from other world regions. In the long term, however, this could be different, as European agricultural enterprises may partly be kept in production locations by the direct payments where they would not be able to survive without these subsidies. Furthermore, the direct payments allow investment decisions that increase the productivity of variable production factors. The current EU agricultural subsidy policy hampers the development of African agriculture much less than it did before export subsidies and coupled subsidy payments were largely abolished. Meat case study: African countries on average import around 20% of meat products, a quarter of which come from the EU. Poultry accounts for the majority of African meat imports, with poultry parts accounting for three-quarters of African poultry imports from the EU. However, the European poultry sector benefits little from subsidy payments and European producer prices are relatively high in international comparison. The low export prices of poultry parts are a result of the low demand for these products in Europe and not a consequence of the CAP. This also means that a reduction of EU poultry exports through political measures (and the associated higher prices) would primarily burden consumers in Africa. Dairy products case study: Many countries in North and West Africa are heavily dependent on milk powder imports, some of which exceed domestic production multiple times. The CAP has far-reaching impact in the dairy market. Following the abolition of the milk quota, European milk production has continued to increase, although low European producer prices are supposed to reduce the incentive to do so. However, dairy farms in the EU still benefit from income support. Direct payments, as well as coupled subsidies (in some Member States), provide incentives for investing in productivity-enhancing technologies, and in this way positively affect milk production. In addition, the EU provides a safeguarding against price risks through support purchases of milk powder,1 which are re-supplied to the market below world market prices. On the other hand, in some African countries, the (proportional) production costs are lower than in European countries. At present, however, these African countries are not able to meet the rapidly growing demand for milk products on the continent. Investments in local value chains and improved infrastructure would increase African productivity and intra-African trade could gain in importance. Effects of CAP environmental orientation: According to the expert consultation carried out for this study, a stronger environmental and climate orientation of the CAP, which takes into account the indirect effects of intensive agriculture on the environment and climate, would have a dampening effect on European agricultural exports to Africa. In the model simulation, the implementation of the European Nitrate Regulation leads to a reduction in livestock farming and alters European meat production. As a result, European exports (especially of pork) to Africa would decrease by 33-52%, and European exports of dairy products by about 5-7%. However, this reduction in European exports would probably be mainly absorbed by other exporters, resulting in largely unchanged African meat consumption. Preliminary conclusions on CAP reform and trade policy with Africa i) The increased return to coupled subsidy payments and support prices now being considered in some EU countries, as already begun in 2013, is inconsistent with the objectives of the EU’s 1 Between January 2018 and June 2019, 380,000 tonnes of milk powder were sold from the intervention stock, which is about 50% of the 2018 export volume to Africa. development policy and should, therefore, be limited. Otherwise, there is a risk of increased unfair competition with Africa. ii) The more targeted linking of agricultural subsidies to environmental and climate regulations increases the costs of agricultural production in the EU, especially in livestock farming, and could be expected to reduce the EU's production and export surpluses. This would create local incentives in Africa to invest in domestic agriculture. iii) Extensive open market access to the EU for African agricultural products, in particular also processed food, without tariff escalation, shall be facilitated. Concession of result-oriented, long transition periods, and trade policies allowing for the protection of African agriculture (i.e. granting further scope to protect key agricultural industries beyond 2035) before African markets are fully opened shall be considered. iv) In a future strategic EU – Africa trade agreement adapted to AfCFTA, trade preferences should be transferred to such an agreement. In addition, "Aid for Trade" programs should be maintained regardless of the FTAs. v) New opportunities for direct digital trade in agricultural and food products from Africa should be facilitated, promoted and increased to create value addition in processed products (cocoa, tea, coffee) in decentralized rural areas. vi) Appropriate quality, health, environmental and social standards of agricultural and food products traded in and with Africa should be developed further together with African partners. Employment effects should be taken into account. The EU should provide support on improving these standards in Africa, e.g. through "Aid for Trade" programs, as African export potential would otherwise not be fully exploited. vii) Simplification of origin rules (supported through consultation with trading partners) should provide scope for flexibility, provided the majority of the ingredients originate in the partner country or regional economic area.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2020–05–27
  3. By: Canning, Patrick; Rehkamp, Sarah; Hitaj, Claudia; Peters, Christian
    Abstract: Natural resources facilitate production of an adequate daily food supply for Americans. Food consumption in the United States, measured in total calories per day, increased about 50 percent over a recent 25-year span. Understanding how changes in food consumption impact the U.S. food system’s use of the country’s natural resources requires consideration of many factors. We find that diets, or food choices, are likely to be an important factor. For example, had the diets of Americans who met all the 2010 USDA Dietary Guidelines for Americans back in 2007 become the typical American diet of that time, then per capita consumption of the fruits, vegetables, legumes/nuts/seeds, eggs, and dairy categories would have increased, while per capita consumption in the sugars/sweets/beverages, fats/oils/salad dressings, grain products, and meat/poultry/fish/mixtures food groups would have declined. In such a scenario, under the production and marketing practices in 2007, nutrition and resource conservation goals would have been mostly complementary, or synergistic. As one notable exception, water conservation in particular may have required tradeoffs between competing goals, especially for production of fruits, vegetables, and dairy. This report combines empirical evidence of resource use in the system in 2007 with the presentation of a framework for a broader empirical study of sustainable pathways to producing a healthy and adequate food supply.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
  4. By: Latka, Catharina; Heckelei, Thomas; Kuhn, Arnim; Witzke, Heinz-Peter; Kornher, Lukas
    Abstract: The future EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) requires coherence with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the international commitments in the fight against climate change. Next to ensuring stable food supply by supporting farmers and enhancing agricultural productivity, environmental sustainability is a core aspect of the proposed future CAP. At the same time, new policies must not compromise socio-economic development in low-income countries, especially in Africa, as stated in the European consensus on development. On the contrary, the extensification of agriculture in the EU may create trade opportunities for African countries. We apply a global agri-economic model to assess trade-related impacts of potential, environmentally motivated changes of CAP policies in the EU and Africa. Our findings suggest that EU production levels of meat would change with a stronger environmental focus of the CAP. These changes reduce the EU’s share in agri-trade flows to Africa. However, food supply in Africa is not projected to deteriorate, as imports from other world regions and, to a limited extent, increasing domestic production can fill the gap. In how far potentials for domestic production growth can be used in African regions depends at least partly on their competitiveness vis-á-vis substituting importers. A sensitivity analysis on reduced transport costs shows that infrastructure investments could contribute to a stronger integration of Africa in international markets. On a global level, our analysis reveals the need to balance sustainability trade-offs in terms of avoiding leakage effects from EU agricultural production changes versus facilitating economic growth potentials in low- and middle-income countries.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2020–05–27
  5. By: Rana, Abdul Wajid
    Abstract: While wheat procurement policy is a central part of Pakistan’s agricultural policy, a brief description of its impact does not make for easy reading: it has a high budget cost, has led to a buildup of debt, distorts markets, provides little direct benefit to small farmers and productivity in Pakistan’s wheat sector continues to lag. Furthermore, as Pakistan has gradually moved to producing a wheat surplus, a trend that is likely to continue in the future, the current policy set is likely to become more unsustainable in the future, with the task of squaring the circle between supporting farm incomes, providing fair consumer prices and delivering food security becomes increasingly difficult without reform.
    Keywords: PAKISTAN, SOUTH ASIA, ASIA, wheat, markets, policies, agricultural policies, food prices, grain, agricultural productivity, wheat markets, wheat procurement, wheat price, support price
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Hannah Ameye; Joachim De Weerdt; John Gibson
    Abstract: The nutrition transition in developing countries has increased interest in moving the measurement and analysis of nutritional choice beyond calories to a more complete understanding of macro- and micronutrient consumption. To help move the literature on data collection forward we randomly assigned six different survey modules to measure food consumption across Tanzania, three using diaries and three using recall methods. These modules were chosen to reflect the variety of modules currently in use in multi-purpose household surveys collecting food consumption expenditures in some detail at national scale. They differ by survey observation period, by length of the food recall list, by type of survey reporter (individual reporting or a single reporter per household) and by frequency of interviewer visits. From these data we calculate the percentage consumed relative to daily recommended intakes of calories, protein, fats, sugars, fiber and 16 micronutrients, taking into account age and gender. We also calculate minimum cost diets in each region, using linear programming, and cost-of-basic needs food poverty lines, the prevalence and depth of food poverty according to these lines, and the cost of targeted transfers designed to eliminate food poverty.
    Date: 2020–05–25
  7. By: Maulik Jagnani (Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University); Christopher B. Barrett (Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University); Yanyan Liu (International Food Policy Research Institute); Liangzhi You (International Food Policy Research Institute)
    Abstract: We present evidence that farmers adjust agricultural inputs in response to within season temperature variation, undertaking defensive investments to reduce the adverse agroecological impacts of warmer temperatures. Using panel data from Kenyan maize growing households, we find that higher temperatures early in the growing season increase the use of pesticides, while reducing fertilizer use. Warmer temperatures throughout the season increase weeding effort. These adjustments arise because greater heat increases the incidence of pests, crop diseases and weeds, compelling farmers to divert investment from productivity-enhancing technologies like fertilizer to adaptive, loss-reducing, defensive inputs like pesticides and weeding labor.
    Keywords: Agriculture, temperature JEL classification: O13, Q15, Q56
    Date: 2019–07–01
  8. By: Mosheim, Roberto (Economic Research Service, USDA); Sickles, Robin C. (Rice U)
    Abstract: This study explores the spatial effects in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollution and drinking water production patterns in agriculture. Two important examples are that water utilities that deliver and treat drinking water in agricultural areas have to deal with excess nitrogen and phosphorus released to the environment by crop and livestock operations, an externality created by the agricultural sector; and, second, that the drinking water production sector in rural areas is a highly fragmented with a multitude of enterprise sizes, organization forms and network densities that have spatial components. In our analysis we present measures of N and P pollution. We employ information collected in section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act: count of impaired water bodies by N/P, and count of point source N/P pollution at the Hydrologic Unit Code 8 (HUC) or sub-basin level and estimate how these variables affect drinking water utilities scale economies, productive efficiency, and scale and scope economies.
    JEL: D24 Q53 Q57
    Date: 2020–03
  9. By: Mishra, Mukesh Kumar
    Abstract: This paper examines different strategies for the protection of the global climate, the environment and Green Growth mechanism for natural resources and scrutinizes the extent to which they meet the transformative requirements of the Paris Climate Agreement and the 2030 Agenda. It analyses the interactions between relevant institutions of global and multi-level environmental governance. It focuses on the legitimacy of respective green mechanisms and their effects on ecosystems and human welfare. It requires that keeping in mind The Kuznets Curves Model Mechanism and reform further to develop the global economic governance system and restructure incentive systems at national level. Crises like COVID-19 show the urgency to promote necessary transformations for our society to survive in the 21st century. It can be a good reminder that in any breakdown, there is always a chance for breakthrough. Pollution and greenhouse gas emissions have fallen across continents as countries try to contain the spread of the new coronavirus. The green economy aims to achieve economic growth and development without an adverse effect on the environment. The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis explains the relationship between economic activity and environmental degradation. Therefore, environmental conservation policies, technological advancement and modern industrial policies are required to make the economic growth of the countries effective in reducing CO2 emissions. There is need for international collaboration among developing and developed countries for fostering green economy and sustainability. We need green growth because risks to development are rising as growth continues to erode natural capital, through the tools of Sustainable Development.
    Keywords: Sustainable Development,Green Economy,Green Growth,The Environmental Kuznets Curve
    JEL: Q56 Q57
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Ambler, Kate; de Brauw, Alan; Murphy, Mike
    Abstract: Conservation agriculture techniques can increase agricultural production while decreasing CO2 emissions, yet adoption in the developing world remains low—in part because many years of continuous adoption may be required to realize gains in production. We conduct a framed field experiment in northern Ghana to study how randomly assigned incentives and peer information may affect adoption. Incentives increase adoption, both while they are available and after withdrawal. There is no overall effect of peer information, but we do find evidence that information about long-term adoption increased adoption, particularly when that information shows that production gains have been achieved.
    Keywords: GHANA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; agriculture; conservation agriculture; incentives; agricultural productivity; field experimentation; framed field experiment; minimal soil disturbance (MSD); conventional practices (CP); Ghana Agricultural Sector Investment Programme (GASIP)
    Date: 2020
  11. By: Stefano Battiston; Petr Jakubik; Irene Monasterolo; Keywan Riahi; Bas van Ruijven (EIOPA)
    Abstract: In the first collaboration between climate economists, climate financial risk modellers and financial regulators, we apply the CLIMAFIN framework described in Battiston at al. (2019) to provide a forward-looking climate transition risk assessment of the sovereign bonds’ portfolios of solo insurance companies in Europe. We consider a scenario of a disorderly introduction of climate policies that cannot be fully anticipated and priced in by investors. First, we analyse the shock on the market share and profitability of carbon-intensive and low-carbon activities under climate transition risk scenarios. Second, we define the climate risk management strategy under uncertainty for a risk averse investor that aims to minimise her largest losses. Third, we price the climate policies scenarios in the probability of default of the individual overeign bonds and in the bonds’ climate spread. Finally, we estimate the largest gains/losses on the insurance companies’ portfolios conditioned to the climate scenarios. We find that the potential impact of a disorderly transition to low-carbon economy on insurers portfolios of sovereign bonds is moderate in terms of its magnitude. However, it is non-negligible in several scenarios. Thus, it should be regularly monitored and assessed given the importance of sovereign bonds in insurers’ investment portfolios.
    Keywords: insurance, climate risk, sovereign bonds
    JEL: G11 G12 G22
    Date: 2019–12
  12. By: Tröster, Bernhard
    Abstract: The global spread of the corona virus is a massive challenge for countries in the Global South. Beyond the health crisis, many countries face economic turmoil linked to their dependence on commodities. Commodity markets have reacted strongly to the COVID-19 crisis with drastic price movements and changes in production and demand due to the policy measures to contain the pandemic. As a result, commodity-dependent countries face the serious risk that the current multiple and simultaneous crises in health, financial and commodity sectors mutually reinforce each other and exceed the abilities of commodity-dependent countries for a proper response. The vast majority of low- and middle-income countries (102 of 134) are persistently dependent on commodities on their export and import side. This ÖFSE Briefing Paper portrays, therefore, the current commodity price developments and the underlying fundamental drivers in the current crisis, considering the unique changes to supply and demand conditions in the different types of commodities. Most importantly, we note that global commodity prices are largely determined on commodity futures markets. As these futures prices are used as the benchmarks for all other prices set along physical commodity chains, the changing behavior of financial investors in the current crisis plays a crucial role in the current challenges faced by commodity-dependent countries. These changes in commodity sectors have multiple implications for commodity-dependent countries in the Global South. Beyond the risks of short-term shocks including potential food crises, these countries might have to deal with depressed export earnings and changing global demand patterns as medium- to long-term effects of the COVID-19 crisis. Appropriate policy responses should address rapidly the short-term financial constraints of many commoditydependent countries in the Global South, but also support policies and capacities in the public and private sectors to advance structural transformation of these countries. However, the stable economic conditions required to implement these measures depend on the stability of commodity prices. It is therefore necessary to reopen the debate on the functioning of global commodity markets and pricing, which revolves around financial commodity markets.
    Keywords: commodity dependence,commodity prices,COVID-19 crisis,financialization,commodity price stabilization
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Christopher CRAMER
    Abstract: We examine how investment in high-value agriculture can help to address the balance of payments constraint on growth and the wage employment challenge in Ethiopia while accelerating structural change. The industrialization of freshness has significant implications for policy priorities.Development cannot be sustainable without structural change, in Arthur Lewis’s sense of a shift of people out of low and into progressively higher productivity economic activities. This process has often been (mis)understood as a rural to urban shift, or as only a departure from agriculture and into those sectors classified as manufacturing or industrial. However, our research, which draws on fieldwork in Ethiopia, shows that simple sectoral classifications have become increasingly unfit for purpose. Besides the process of ‘servicification’, i.e. the greater share of final value of manufactured goods derived from service activities like logistics, marketing and branding, we argue that there is a parallel process of the ‘industrialization of freshness’. Structural change is taking place within agriculture and rural areas rather than away from them, but the implications for ‘industrial’ strategies are rarely discussed. Among the influences accelerating an industrialization of freshness are a globalized unbundling of production, technical change, and the increasing significance of phyto-sanitary, quality, and ‘ethical’ standards.Our interviews with farm managers and owners, as well as airline managers and government officials, show that several agricultural enterprises are increasingly knowledge-intense, organizationally and technically sophisticated and by a reasonable definition ‘industrial’. Moreover, we find that horticulture exports embody another dimension of complex, cross-sectoral economic activity through their reliance on extremely sophisticated logistics and transport. The horticulture export sector has created far greater demands and pressures for the development of up-to-date transport and logistics in Ethiopia than, for example, the textile and leather sectors.We then identify, within the context of the Upper Awash Valley in Ethiopia, some of the apparently technical but, above all, socio- political constraints limiting the potential for high value agriculture to contribute to growth and structural change.Our method and findings are very different from the literature on ‘complexity’ and ‘product space’ and they query pessimistic conclusions about ‘premature deindustrialization’. And our findings suggest the need to rethink how industrial strategies can promote structural change: much more support should be directed to high value agricultural production and less focus on assembling garments or trainers in subsidized industrial parks.
    Keywords: Éthiopie
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2018–08–17
  14. By: Mitik, Lulit; Fofana, Ismaël; Diallo, Mariam Amadou
    Abstract: The study developed a results framework to analyze Ethiopia’s progress towards selected CAADP/Malabo, SDGs and Agenda 2063 goals. A Computable General Equilibrium model linked to an income distribution Micro-Simulation model were used to identify priority investment areas for accelerated agricultural growth, poverty and inequality reduction. Simulation results indicate that the current investment trend and composition would leave Ethiopia off-track to meet these objectives. The analysis of alternative agricultural investment scenarios shows that the public sector has still a great role to play in promoting agricultural growth in Ethiopia. Past expenditure levels have been high, though not sufficient, and would need to increase substantially with an emphasis on the quality of public agricultural spending. Productivity remains one of the major challenges but also one of the most effective solutions for accelerated agricultural growth in Ethiopia. Agricultural investments should be designed considering the agricultural value-chain. While social protection programs are important for the poor, rural non-agricultural development could provide a more sustainable source of income.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, agricultural development, investment, poverty, value chains, productivity, income
    Date: 2020
  15. By: Hoang Van, Cuong Van; Tran Quang, Tuyen; Nguyen Thi, Yen; Lan Nguyen, Thanh
    Abstract: Using secondary data from a socio-economic quantitative household survey in of the North Central region of Vietnam, the main aim of our study is to analyze the causal effect of forest resources on household income and poverty. Based on the observed characteristics of a forest-based livelihood and forest-related activities, we use a propensity score matching (PSM) method to control for potential bias arising from self-selection. The PSM results indicate that households with a forest livelihood had a higher level of income and lower level of poverty than did those without. Interestingly, our findings confirm that a forest-based livelihood offers much higher income than any other type of livelihood adopted by local households. Also, the poverty rate among households with a forest livelihood is lower than those earning non-labor income or engaged in wage/crop and crop livelihoods. Moreover, households whose livelihoods depend on timber forest products (TFPs) and animals (non-TFPs) also had higher income and lower levels of poverty than did those lacking these resources. Among households and provinces, we find differing opportunities deriving from forest resources, suggesting that there are potential barriers hindering local households from pursuing a forest livelihood or participating in some forest activities. Therefore, government policy and regulations on forest management should focus on improving the access of households to forest resources, at the same time enhancing the sustainability of these resources.
    Keywords: forest resources; household income; livelihood; poverty; rural livelihood.
    JEL: I3 I32 I38 R2
    Date: 2019–08–10
  16. By: Ojha, Shekhar Nath; Dey, Suman; Babu, Suresh Chandra
    Abstract: Aquaculture and fisheries continues to be a sector that has not received adequate attention for its contribution to food security goals across the globe. This sector is predicted to grow at a fast rate in the next 40 years. In the Indian context, the government has prioritized the aquaculture and fisheries sector by establishing an independent federal ministry. However, the public extension system in India still lacks resources and strategies to address the needs of fish farmers and fishers. This has created a space for the private extension system to play a pivotal role in providing appropriate skills and training to farmers and fishers. Considering the present challenges in the aquaculture and fisheries sector, this paper proposes the creation of an Aqua-Chamber of Commerce (ACC) as a viable bottom-up approach to improve the performance of the sector by providing adequate support to private extension system. Additionaly, the ACC will also help in improving the public extension system, facilitating the business ecosystem and strategies, and advocating for major policy reforms in the sector.
    Keywords: INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; fisheries; aquaculture; extension systems; private enterprises; aquatic ecosystems; Chamber of Commerce; private extension system; aquapreneurship; policy ecosystem; pluralism; inclusiveness
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Adel Ben Youssef (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Adelina Zeqiri (University of Prishtina "Hasan Prishtina")
    Abstract: This paper investigates the main principles supporting hospitality industry 4.0, the effects of hospitality industry activities on climate change, and the ways that hospitality industry 4.0 might contribute to combating climate change. In the context of the focus of contemporary industries on sustainable development, the fourth industrial revolution or industry 4.0 can be considered an enabler of sustainability. Among those industries considered to be major contributors to climate change is the hospitality industry which has increased research interest in this sector. The hospitality industry includes the travel and tourism, accommodation and food and beverages sectors all of which are contributing in different ways to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The introduction of industry 4.0 technologies could help hospitality industry to reduce its effects on climate change through increased energy efficiency, recycling and re-use of water, and reduced food waste. The notion of circular hospitality involving reuse, recycling, redesign, replacement and rethinking strategies, and use of virtual reality to reduce transport and travel are enabled by industry 4.0 technologies. Hospitality industry 4.0 technologies offer new opportunities for enhancing sustainable development and reducing GHG emissions through the use of environmentally friendly approaches, to achieve the Paris agreement objectives.
    Keywords: Hospitality, Hospitality Industry 4.0, Climate Change, Circular Hospitality, Sustainability, Energy Efficiency
    JEL: Q54 L83 O33
    Date: 2020–05
  18. By: Laborde Debucquet, David; Piñeiro, Valeria
    Abstract: Trade tensions between the major world economies increased in 2018, and US tariff increases triggered reprisals and counter-reprisals. In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), trade tensions between the US and China and other US trade partners are expected to generate a mix of opportunities and threats for exporters of food products. To better understand the likely impacts of global trade tensions for LAC, we modeled a set of four scenarios using the MIRAGRODEP model1. We looked at impacts on exports, imports, production, GDP, household consumption, and adjustment costs through changes in labor markets up to 2030. Impacts will differ across the region’s highly heterogeneous countries, but some broad trends are evident.
    Keywords: LATIN AMERICA; CARIBBEAN; AMERICAS; trade; international trade; modelling; trade policies; agricultural trade
    Date: 2019
  19. By: Gabrielle Joly; Josiane Nikiema (International Water Management Institute (IWMI))
    Abstract: Black soldier fly colonies can produce about 100 times more protein per year than chicken or soybeans, not to mention cattle, on the same area of land. The flies can directly feed on different types of organic wastes, leapfrogging closed loop processes within a circular food economy. Also, where no protein is needed, for example, to feed fish or pigs, the larvae can be processed into high-quality biodiesel. However, can this be done at scale? The answer is "˜Yes". The report showcases some of the leading global businesses in Black Soldier Fly production.
    Keywords: Resource recovery; Resource management; Reuse; Waste management; Waste treatment; Waste reduction; Technology; Black soldier fly; Hermetia illucens; Life cycle; Bioconversion; Insect farming; Breeding; Larvae; Pupae; Yields; Harvesting; Lipid content; Animal feeding; Feedstocks; Biomass; Biofuels; Biodiesel; Chitin; Residues; Organic wastes; Fertilizers; Nutrients; Energy conservation; Infrastructure; Monitoring; Economic impact; Economic value; Costs; Environmental effects; Legal aspects; Social benefits; Public health; Business models; Markets; Case studies
    Date: 2019
  20. By: Robinson, Sarah
    Abstract: This paper presents an overview of the livestock sector in Central Asia using national statistics and field survey data. Growing consumer demand and underused pasture reserves suggest significant potential for growth. But production is fragmented between many small household producers with poor access to land, family farms and very large (but often inefficient) enterprises. Few producers can supply quality livestock products at high volumes, leading some meat and milk processors to favour imported produce. Peri-urban milk suppliers may participate in value chains through wholesalers, but in remoter areas farms specialise in meat production, reliant on long chains of intermediaries. Only in Kazakhstan do international agreements, slaughter and animal health arrangements favour export prospects in the near future. Since the 1990s, winter fodder deficits have limited livestock productivity. Domestic fodder production is increasing in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but is hindered by state order policies in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Dairy producers close to markets often provide high quality fodder, whilst need for supplements is lower amongst mobile meat producers with winter pasture. Amongst the latter, a class of large commercial operations is emerging, whilst smaller farms lacking access to grazing resources find it harder to grow. Government policy often magnifies differences between small and large producers, for example through conditions for subsidies or land access procedures. Subsidised credit is available in most republics but uptake is limited by effective demand. Improved public services, better support for service cooperatives and decentralised processing and slaughter facilities would help producers increase value from their livestock.
    Keywords: Central Asia,livestock,marketing,fodder,pasture,policy
    Date: 2020
  21. By: ElKadhi, Zouhair; Elsabbagh, Dalia; Frija, Aymen; Lakoud, Thouraya; Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens
    Abstract: The COVID-19 crisis is expected to lead to a 46.4 percent decline in Tunisia’s GDP during the 2nd quarter of 2020 (April to June). The industrial sector will be hit hardest, with output falling by 52.7 percent, followed closely by services (-49.0 percent) and agriculture (-16.2 percent). These high losses are a result of the complete lockdown imposed in the country to contain the pandemic. Higher-income urban households will see the largest income losses, although lower-income urban households also will experience significant reductions in their income. As a policy response, social transfers towards poorer households will reduce the adverse welfare impact of these drops in household income. Government policies to support struggling businesses will allow economic activities to revive more rapidly when the lockdown loosens. Consequently, comprehensive planning by the Government of Tunisia to re-open the economy will be critical to reduce the pandemic’s adverse impact on the country’s economy in the longer-term, reducing losses of employment and income, especially in manufacturing and retail.
    Keywords: TUNISIA, AFRICA, NORTH AFRICA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, gross national product, economic impact, agrifood systems, households, employment, Covid-19, lockdown
    Date: 2020
  22. By: Ardyn Nordstrom; Christopher Cotton (Queen's University)
    Abstract: From October 2015 to April 2016, Southern Africa experienced one of the severest droughts in history. The drought's intensity varied significantly across locations. This provides a natural experiment to estimate the effect of large, negative agricultural shocks. We consider the impact of this shock on children’s educational outcomes using data from rural Zimbabwe. Those who experienced the drought may suffer from decreases in income and food access. This can affect household resource allocation and schooling decisions while exposing individuals to stress and uncertainty. We find the drought increases the probability that students advance in school, a seemingly positive impact, likely due to lower opportunity costs to education. The drought also led to a significant decline in performance on mathematics assessments and leadership attitudes, suggesting stress or other factors associated with a drought more than offset increases in attendance. This highlights the importance of using multiple indicators in education evaluations.
    Keywords: education, droughts, agriculture, economic development, natural experiment
    JEL: I25 Q54 O13 O15
    Date: 2020–04
  23. By: Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Babatunde, Raphael O.; Andam, Kwaw S.
    Abstract: Nigeria faces a growing triple burden of malnutrition. First, chronic childhood undernutrition remains stubbornly high. Nationwide, 36.8% of children under five years were estimated to be stunted in 2018—only slightly down from 40.8% in 2008. This corresponds to an annual average decline of less than 0.4 percentage points over the last decade and was almost exclusively due to a reduction in the prevalence of child stunting in urban areas (Table 1). Second, micronutrient malnutrition, including iron deficiency anemia, is extremely widespread among young children and women of reproductive age. While the prevalence rate of anemia among children under five years slightly declined in rural areas between 2010 and 2018, it substantially increased in urban areas. Third, overweight and obesity among adults has been rising rapidly in both urban and rural areas. Over the last decade, the national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity (the extreme form of overnutrition) among nonpregnant women 15 to 49 years of age increased faster than the rate of child stunting decreased, driving the growth of the triple burden. Obesity significantly increases the risk of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as type-2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases (like heart attack and stroke), and hypertension. The root cause of all forms of malnutrition is poor dietary quality, while poor water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) conditions aggravate malnutrition.
    Keywords: NIGERIA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; nutrition; malnutrition; child nutrition; diet; diversification; policies; agricultural policies; seasonality; triple burden of malnutrition; poor dietary quality; policy implication; agricultural seasonality
    Date: 2020
  24. By: HarvestPlus; Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
    Abstract: The objective of the brief, Biofortification: A food-systems solution to help end hidden hunger, is to “encourage the adoption and scaling up of biofortification through national policies and programs, with collaborative support from FAO and HarvestPlus,†according to the Introduction. The brief has been distributed to staff of both organizations and is also available publicly to inform policy, program, and advocacy work.
    Keywords: WORLD; biofortification; food systems; hunger (socioeconomic problem); biological phenomena; policies; hidden hunger
    Date: 2019
  25. By: Grumiller, Jan; Raza, Werner G.; Grohs, Hannes
    Abstract: The promotion of sustainable value chains is on the rise in the EU, with important implications for textile and apparel (T&A) products. EU T&A supplier countries and firms will increasingly have to adapt to the new EU value chain and market dynamics. Based on a case study of the Egyptian T&A sector, this policy note argues that the required transformation of the industry will be highly demanding. EU development policy should increase support in order to promote sustainable value chains in the T&A sector in Egypt, but also in other MENA countries with export-oriented T&A sectors
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Sinha, Avik; Sengupta, Tuhin
    Abstract: There is a limited number of studies on the estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for Nitrous Oxide (N2O) emissions, though it is one of the most harmful greenhouse gases (GHGs) present in ambient atmosphere. In the wake of industrialization, it is necessary to understand the impact of energy consumption pattern on N2O emissions and revise the energy policies accordingly. In this study, we have analysed the impact of renewable and fossil fuel energy consumptions on N2O emissions for APEC countries over the period of 1990-2015, and the analysis has been carried out following the EKC hypothesis framework. The results obtained from the study indicate the efficacy of the renewable energy solutions in having positive impact on environmental quality by helping to reduce the level of N2O emissions. The policy implications derived the results are designed keeping the objectives of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in mind, so that the energy policies can bring forth sustainability in the economic systems in these nations.
    Keywords: Renewable Energy; N2O Emissions; APEC Countries; SDG; sustainability
    JEL: Q5 Q53
    Date: 2019
  27. By: Arvaniti, Maria; Habla, Wolfgang
    Abstract: International carbon markets are frequently propagated as an efficient instrument for reducing CO2 emissions. We argue that such markets, despite their desirable efficiency properties, might not be in the best interest of governments who are guided by strategic considerations in negotiations. We identify the circumstances under which governments benefit or are harmed by cooperation in the form of an international market. Our results challenge the conventional wisdom that an international market is most beneficial for participating countries when they have vastly diverging marginal abatement costs; rather, it may be more promising to negotiate agreements with non-tradable emissions caps.
    Keywords: cooperative climate policy,political economy,emissions trading,linking of permit markets,strategic delegation,strategic voting
    JEL: D72 H23 H41 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2020
  28. By: Haitao Cheng (Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University,); Hayato Kato (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Ayako Obashi (School of International Politics, Economics and Communication, Aoyama Gakuin University)
    Abstract: The spatialunbundlingofpartsproductionandassemblycurrentlycharacterizes globalization, leadingtotheworldwidedispersionofpollution.Weconsidersociallyop- timal (cooperative)environmentaltaxesinatwo-countrymodelofglobalvaluechains in whichthelocationofbothpartsandassemblycandi er.Whenunbundlingcosts are sohighthatpartsandassemblymustcolocateinthepre-globalizedworld,pollu- tion isspatiallyconcentrated,andharmonizingenvironmentaltaxesmaximizesglobal welfare.Incontrast,withlowunbundlingcoststriggeringthedispersionofpartsand thuspollutionthroughouttheworldastoday,harmonizationfailstomaximizeglobal welfare.Similarresultsholdwhenthetwocountriesnon-cooperativelychoosetheir environmentaltaxes.
    Keywords: Environmentalpolicy;Fragmentation;Emissiontaxcompetition;International coordination;Tradeinpartsandcomponents
    JEL: F18 F23 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2020–05
  29. By: Shahriyar Aliyev (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00 Prague, Czech Republic.); Evzen Kocenda (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00 Prague, Czech Republic; Institute of Information Theory and Automation of the CAS, Prague; CESifo, Munich; IOS Regensburg; and the Euro Area Business Cycle Network.)
    Abstract: We analyze the impact of the ECB monetary policies on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices using monthly data from January 2001 till August 2019. We employ a SVAR model and assess separately period of conventional monetary policy before global financial crisis (GFC) and unconventional monetary policy during post-crisis period. Our key results indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks have positive effects on the aggregate and sectoral commodity prices during both conventional and unconvetional monetary policy periods. The effect is statistically significant for aggregate commodity prices during post-crisis period. In terms of sectoral impact, the effect is statistically significant for food prices in both periods and for fuel prices during post-crisis period; other commodities display positive but statistically insignificant responses. Further, we demonstrate that the impact of the ECB monetary policy on commodity prices increased remarkably after the GFC. Our results also suggest that the effect of the ECB monetary policy on commodity prices does not transmit directly through market demand and supply expectations channel, but rather through the exchange rate channel that influences the European market demand directly.
    Keywords: European Central Bank, commodity prices, short-term interest rates, unconventional monetary policy, Structural Vector Autoregressive model, exchange rates.
    JEL: C54 E43 E58 F31 G15 Q02
    Date: 2020–04
  30. By: Tione, Sarah E. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
    Abstract: This study investigates whether and to what extent rainfall shocks recurring in Sub-Saharan Africa, that have been associated with distress land rentals, enhance short-term and medium-term access to rented land by tenant households. Tenant households’ rental decisions are modeled in the state-contingent framework with renting-in of land as a risky input choice. Our data is from three rounds of LSMS data from Malawi used to construct a balanced household panel, combined with corresponding district rainfall data that are used to generate seasonal district-wise rainfall shock variables. Panel probit and Tobit models controlling for unobserved heterogeneity were used. Regional heterogeneities were revealed. The results from the Central Region of Malawi, where land rental markets are most active, indicates that the one-year and two-year lagged downside rainfall shocks help tenant households accessing land not only the first year after a rainfall shock but also in the following years. For the more land constrained Southern Region of Malawi, with less prevalence of land rental markets, we observed that the two-year lagged downside rainfall shock is associated with less access to rented land. These results reveal surprising intertemporal and regional variations that are important for policy discussions and lessons on land rental markets amidst recurring rainfall shocks in SSA.
    Keywords: Rainfall shocks; Land rental markets; State-contingent framework; Malawi.
    JEL: Q15 Q51
    Date: 2020–05–22
  31. By: Chu, Angus C.; Peretto, Pietro; Wang, Xilin
    Abstract: This study explores how agricultural technology affects the endogenous takeoff of an economy in the Schumpeterian growth model. Due to the subsistence requirement for agricultural consumption, an improvement in agricultural technology leads to a reallocation of labor from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector. Therefore, the agricultural improvement expands the firm size in the industrial sector, which determines the incentives for innovation and triggers an endogenous transition from stagnation to growth. Calibrating the model to US data for a quantitative analysis, we find that without the reallocation of labor from agriculture to the industrial sector in the early 19th century, the takeoff of the US economy would have been delayed by about four decades.
    Keywords: agricultural technology; endogenous takeoff; innovation; economic growth
    JEL: O3 O4
    Date: 2020–05
  32. By: Melindi-Ghidi, P.; Dedeurwaerdere, T.; Fabbri, G.
    Abstract: Intermediary organisations have increasingly played a role in payments for agri-environment services across Europe over the last two decades. However, the economics literature has so far not examined the impact of this new governance mechanism on environmental protection and on individuals’ behaviour. We develop a new theoretical economic framework to compare an incentive mechanism using intermediaries, such as environmental knowledge brokers and information providers, with a standard central governance mechanism, in terms of environmental impact. We show that the emergence of knowledge intermediaries is particularly effective where farmers initially have low environmental awareness, or when the public institution organising the scheme is insufficiently aware of individuals’ characteristics. Our findings provide theoretical support for previous empirical results on payment schemes for agri-environment measures.
    JEL: Q51 Q58 Z19
    Date: 2020
  33. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; Sinha, Avik
    Abstract: This paper provides a survey of the empirical literature on Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) estimation of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions over the period of 1991-2017. This survey categorizes the studies on the basis of single country and cross-country contexts. It has been hypothesized that the EKC is an inverted U-shaped association between economic growth and CO2 emissions. For both single country and cross-country contexts, the results of EKC estimation for CO2 emissions are inconclusive in nature. The reasons behind this discrepancy can be attributed to the choice of contexts, time period, explanatory variables, and methodological adaptation. The future studies in this context should not only consider new set of variables (e.g., corruption index, social indicators, political scenario, energy research and development expenditures, foreign capital inflows, happiness, population education structure, public investment towards alternate energy exploration, etc.), but also the dataset should be refined, so that the EKC estimation issues raised by Stern (2004) can be addressed.
    Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve; Carbon Emissions; Economic Growth
    JEL: Q5 Q53
    Date: 2019

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.