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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2020‒05‒18
38 papers chosen by |
| By: | Petra Moser |
| Abstract: | Feeding the world’s growing population is one of the most critical policy challenges for the 21st century. With tightening constraints on water, arable land, and other natural resources, agricultural innovation is quickly becoming the most promising path meet the nutrient needs for future generations. At the same time, the increasing variability in the world’s climate intensifies the need for developing new crops that can tolerate extreme weather. Despite the urgency of this task, there is an active discussion on the returns to public and private spending in agricultural R&D, and many of the world’s wealthier countries have scaled back their share of GDP devoted to agricultural R&D. Dwindling public support leaves universities, which, historically, have been a major source of agricultural innovation, increasingly dependent on funding from industry, with uncertain effects on agricultural research. All of these factors create an urgent need for systematic empirical evidence on the forces that drive research and innovation in agriculture. This book aims to provides such evidence through economic analyses of the sources of agricultural innovation, the challenges of measuring productivity, the role of universities and their interactions with industry, and emerging mechanisms to fund agricultural R&D. |
| JEL: | N5 O3 O32 O33 Q16 Q18 Q24 Q25 Q54 Q55 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27080&r=all |
| By: | Hambulo Ngoma; Nicole M. Mason-Wardell; Paul C. Samboko; Peter Hangoma |
| Abstract: | Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an important component of policy options designed to sustainably increase agricultural productivity, build resilience to climate risks, and mitigate climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the uptake of common CSA practices such as conservation agriculture remains low and material constraint explanations (e.g., credit, market, labor, information) for this low uptake remain inadequate and unclear. Could behavioral traits or risk preferences play a role? We test the hypothesis that innate behavioral traits such as risk and time preferences play a role in CSA adoption and test whether adoption can be nudged using insurance and green subsidies. To do so, we use a series of incentivized field experiments with 323 randomly selected farmers in Zambia. We first conducted two games with each participant to elicit risk and time preference parameters. We then conducted three adoption games. In the first (base) game, participants decided whether to adopt CSA (conservation agriculture in this case) or conventional agriculture under various payoff scenarios. Returns to CSA and conventional agriculture varied depending on seasonal rainfall, and the realized seasonal rainfall was determined through a lottery (with a 25% chance of good rainfall) after participants had selected their preferred farming option (CSA or conventional agriculture). In the subsequent two games, we changed the payoff structures by augmenting CSA with rainfall insurance and a green subsidy, respectively. The green subsidy is an add-on incentive for farmers that adopt CSA. We compare adoption behavior under the base scenario to the CSA plus insurance scenario and the CSA plus subsidy scenario. We also use the elicited preference parameters from the time and risk preferences games to analyze their role in participants’ adoption decisions. Overall, we find that the majority of participants in our experiments are risk-averse and impatient, and that a larger proportion of women were more risk-averse and impatient than men. Risk aversion and impatience were negatively correlated with the likelihood of adopting CSA. Time and risk preferences were associated with the likelihood of switching adoption between the base and follow-on (augmented) games. For example, an increase in risk aversion increased the likelihood of switching from conservation agriculture in base games to conservation agriculture with insurance in follow-on games. Introducing insurance and green subsidies increased the level of adoption by 10 and 8 percentage points and the probability of adoption by approximately 6 – 12 percentage points. Whether these switch-up levels are high enough is an empirical question, but suggest that insurance and green subsidies are unlikely the panacea. Thus, although monetary returns matter in CSA adoption, non- pecuniary factors such as risk and time preferences also matter. These behavioral traits could partly explain the perceived low adoption of CSA practices such as conservation agriculture. Several factors including uninsured basis risk, trust in and how well farmers understand insurance and subsidy incentives, knowledge of the technology, and subjective perceptions of its riskiness influence adoption choices. Access to extension and subjective risk perceptions were stronger determinants of adoption in real life. Given our findings that more risk-averse individuals are less likely to adopt CSA, a practice that is intended to be risk-reducing, a key policy implication is the need for a retooling of both public and private extension services to better demonstrate and educate farmers on the risk-reducing effects of CSA practices such as conservation agriculture. Moreover, if insurance and subsidies are to be used successfully to nudge adoption, extension will need to educate farmers on the structure of and mechanisms for payouts. This is important to build trust in the incentive systems. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303060&r=all |
| By: | Amidou Assima; Giacomo Zanello; Melinda Smale |
| Abstract: | The Malian Government has introduced the Fertilizer Subsidy Program as a policy strategy to increase agricultural productivity and food production with the aim of improving the food security and well-being of smallholder farm households. However, there is a lack of reliable evidence regarding the effects of the subsidy program. We tested the effects of fertilizer subsidies on diet quality of women of reproductive age by applying propensity score matching methods to farm household survey data collected in 2018. We found that subsidized fertilizer has a positive effect on overall women’s dietary diversity in the Niger Delta but is negatively associated with the overall dietary diversity in the Koutiala Plateau. One of the innovations of this study is that the dietary diversity score is broken down according to food supply sources. Analysis by component allows a thorough understanding of the channel through which the subsidized fertilizer program affects women's nutrition outcomes. A close look at the different components of women's dietary diversity reveals no effects on dietary diversity from the consumption of own production in either of the two zones. Analysis showed a negative impact of subsidized fertilizer on dietary diversity sourced from gift food in Niger Delta. Finally, we found that the effect of subsidized fertilizer on the dietary diversity sourced from purchased food was strong and positive in the Niger Delta, but negative in the Koutiala Plateau. The negative results for the Koutiala Plateau are not entirely surprising given the history of the “Sikasso Paradox.” Decomposing diet diversity by food source suggests that income is the main pathway linking subsidized fertilizers program to women’s nutrition outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303059&r=all |
| By: | Jason Snyder; Thomas Jayne; Nicole Mason; Paul Samboko |
| Abstract: | It is widely accepted that agricultural productivity growth generates important multiplier effects on the rest of the economy through indirect linkages. However, most of this evidence comes from Asia and Latin America. Micro-level evidence in support of this hypothesis in Sub-Saharan Africa is actually quite thin. This study estimates a reduced-form relationship between multi-year lagged district-level summaries of crop productivity and total, own-farm, and off-farm income in Zambia. We use nationally representative household survey data to analyze this relationship; the nature of these data is unique to Zambia. Findings show a strong link between district-level productivity and household own-farm income. A doubling of multi-year lagged median district crop productivity per hectare translates into a 25-33% increase in own-farm income after controlling for household and community factors. There is some evidence of a positive link between district-level productivity and total household income, but the relationship between district crop productivity and off-farm income is sensitive to the model specification and imprecisely measured, suggesting that some of the critiques of the multiplier hypothesis for contemporary Africa may be valid. However, when the lagged crop productivity measures are confined to small farms cultivating less than 2 hectares, we find some evidence of a positive contribution of increases in lagged district-level productivity to off farm income – a doubling of productivity leading to a 34% increase in off-farm income. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303057&r=all |
| By: | SIngh Verma, Juhee; Sharma, Pritee |
| Abstract: | Global climate change will have maximum damaging effect on the vulnerable population living in the global south, mainly the small farmers, traditional forest dwellers and coastal communities. Small farms of less than 1 hectare, estimated to be around 410 millions worldwide, are in areas of high poverty density. Any effort to achieve the “no poverty” goal of SDG and increasing their welfare will require a synergistic effort on part of climate change mitigation and adaptation, achieving sustainable livelihoods and improving health and nutrition indicators of these people. In this context, organic cultivation acquires special importance due to its climate mitigation potential. It balances and corrects nutrient cycles, carbon sequestration and reduces carbon emissions from chemical farming. It’s poverty reduction potential is due to reduction in the input cost for the farmer, better prices in the market, improvement of health as contact with chemical fertilizers and pesticides reduces and nutrient rich food consumption. Organic cultivation acquires special relevance in context of countries like India where a large number of farmers are small and marginal. they currently face adverse market conditions where the input cost of farming is higher than the prices at which the market values their produce. Organic cultivation can reduce this cost and increase the profitability of farming for them. This paper analysis the current literature related to organic farming and its future potential for increasing welfare of Indian farmers most of which are small and marginal. |
| Keywords: | Organic, Zero budget natural farming, Climate change, Small farmer |
| JEL: | Q15 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99994&r=all |
| By: | Hambulo Ngoma; Arild Angelsen |
| Abstract: | Minimum tillage (MT) is a key component in the promotion of conservation agriculture (CA). This paper asks whether MT reduces cropland expansion and thus deforestation. We develop a simple theoretical household model of land expansion, and test hypotheses by estimating a double hurdle model using household survey data from 368 smallholders in rural Zambia. We find that about 19% of the farmers expanded cropland into forests, clearing an average of 0.14 ha over one year. Overall, MT adoption does not significantly reduce deforestation among households in our sample, while labor availability stimulate expansion. Yield augmenting agricultural technologies (such as MT) may not reduce expansion unless combined with other forest conservation measures. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303055&r=all |
| By: | D’Haene, Eline; Vandevelde, Senne; Minten, Bart |
| Abstract: | The impact of food taboos – often because of religion – is understudied. In Ethiopia, religious fasting by Orthodox Christians is assumed to be an important impediment for the sustainable development of a competitive dairy sector and desired higher milk consumption, especially by children. However, evidence is limited. Relying on unique data, we shed light on three major issues. First, we observe that the average annual number of fasting days that Orthodox adults are effectively adhering to is 140, less than commonly cited averages. Using this as an estimate for extrapolation, fasting is estimated to reduce annual dairy consumption by approximately 12 percent nationally. Second, farms adapt to declining milk demand during fasting by increased processing of milk into storable products – fasting contributes to larger price swings for these products. We further note continued sales of milk by non-remote farmers and reduced production – by adjusting lactation times for dairy animals – for remote farmers. Third, fasting is mostly associated with increased milk consumption by the children of dairy farmers, seemingly because of excess milk availability during fasting periods. Our results suggest that fasting habits are not a major explanation for the observed poor performance of Ethiopia’s dairy sector nor low milk consumption by children. To reduce the impact of fasting on the dairy sector in Ethiopia further, investment is called for in improved milk processing, storage, and infrastructure facilities. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; fasting; food prices; dairy products; food consumption; milk production; milk; dairy farming; farmers; value chains; milk consumption; dairy products; food taboo; dairy consumption |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:esspwp:141&r=all |
| By: | William J. Burke; Stephen Morgan; Thelma Namonje; Milu Muyanga; Nicole M. Mason |
| Abstract: | Although measurement error in agricultural field area and productivity data for developing countries is widely acknowledged, there is still a shortage of evidence on what the errors imply for researchers, and even less evidence on what the implications may be for farmers. In this study we investigate field size measurement errors on Zambian maize fields to examine the nature of these errors and the implications they have for: 1) our ability to understand productivity, 2) actual productivity, and 3) our broader understanding of total land use. Using a nationally representative dataset on Zambian smallholder maize plots, we compare self-reported (SR) and global positioning system (GPS) measures of land area on a farm’s largest maize plot to assess how measurement error might affect productivity estimates and farmer input use. Consistent with other studies, we find strong evidence that the land area of relatively smaller fields is overstated, and relatively larger fields is understated. However, correcting for this measurement error using GPS measurements appears to strengthen the evidence of an inverse relationship between field size and productivity. Additionally, we find strong evidence to suggest farmers themselves believe the area figures they report to enumerators and that their input use is more closely aligned with the reported field sizes than actual field sizes. Based on these results and insights from semi-structured interviews with farmers and extension agents, we argue that measurement error may affect real productivity in addition to productivity estimates. Strengthening extension efforts to improve farmer understanding of land area measurements may be an important and affordable way to improve productivity. Moreover, improving the accuracy of datacollection for area seems feasible and will improve researchers’ understanding of productivity. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303519&r=all |
| By: | Reena das Nair; Namhla Landani |
| Abstract: | Some entry barriers in agricultural and agro-processing value chains, particularly for smallholder farmers and small/medium-sized processors, can be overcome with innovation and technology adoption. Technologies and innovation in these sectors have been both radical and incremental, ranging widely through biotechnology; production technologies; automation in sorting, grading, and packaging; and digital platforms and data-connected devices for market access. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Technology, agricultural technology, upgrading, Value chains, Agriculture, Agro-processing, inclusive, Capabilities |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-38&r=all |
| By: | Etienne ESPAGNE; Yoro DIALLO |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to examine farm household-level impacts of weather extreme events on Vietnamese rice technical efficiency. Vietnam is considered among the most vulnerable countries to climate change, and the Vietnamese economy is highly dependent on rice production that is strongly affected by climate change. A stochastic frontier analysis is applied with census panel data and weather data from 2010 to 2014 to estimate these impacts while controlling for both adaptation strategy and household characteristics. Also, this study combines these estimated marginal effects with future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) to project the potential impact of hot temperatures in 2050 on rice technical efficiency. We find that weather shocks measured by the occurrence of floods, typhoons and droughts negatively affect technical efficiency. Also, additional days with a temperature above 31°C dampen technical efficiency and the negative effect is increasing with temperature. For instance, a one day increase in the bin [33°C-34°C] ([35°C and more[) lessen technical efficiency between 6.84 (2.82) and 8.05 (3.42) percentage points during the dry (wet) season. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en9476&r=all |
| By: | Jason Snyder; Thomas Jayne; Jordan Chamberlin; Paul Samboko; Nicole Mason |
| Abstract: | There is a general consensus in the economics literature that growth in agricultural productivity is an engine of economic structural transformation in low income countries via indirect linkages and multiplier effects. However, the empirical support for this hypothesis in the Africa is very limited, and criticisms have been raised as to its applicability in the African context. In this study, we estimate the strength of possible ‘labor linkages’ among small farmers in Zambia, helping to provide a much-needed empirical micro-foundation in the African context. In particular, we use nationally representative surveys to estimate the relationship between multiple years of lagged district level crop productivity and small farm household non-farm labor participation. We find that a doubling of average district crop productivity leads to a 13%-17% increase in non-farm labor participation among farm households. Moreover, this effect is most pronounced among smaller farms; a doubling of median district crop productivity among farms under two hectares cultivated leads to a 24%-31% increase in in non-farm labor participation among non-farm households. The results lend some credibility to the structural transformation hypothesis, and in particular, the idea of labor linkages, in the African setting. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303388&r=all |
| By: | Hambulo Ngoma; Mywish Maredia; Nicole M. Mason; Milu Muyanga; Antony Chapoto |
| Abstract: | Zambia, through her long-term development objective (the Vision 2030), aspires to become a prosperous middle-income country that assures food and nutrition security and reduced poverty. Despite sustained efforts by successive governments, questions remain around policy coherence and consistency in the agricultural sector. This paper reports on the perceived changes in the quality and design of agriculture and food security policy processes, and on the quality of the institutional architecture supporting these processes in Zambia. This report compares 2017 baseline and 2019 endline results and tracks whether, and in which direction, stakeholder perceptions of the quality of agricultural and food security policy processes and institutional architecture in Zambia have changed over time. On the positive side, stakeholder perceptions on some elements of the policy process have improved over the two years from 2017 to 2019. For example, stakeholders now seem to perceive that policy analyses from research institutes are objective. This is important for evidence-based policymaking. Stakeholders are also more satisfied than at baseline with the quality and content of and participation in policy design and implementation in policy processes and the level of dialogue between government and other stakeholders. However, stakeholder perceptions of the overall quality of agricultural and food security policies marginally declined by 0.27 points (on a scale of 0 to 3 points) between 2017 and 2019. Although this difference is statistically significant at 95% confidence level, this test is unreliable given the small sample (n=23) at baseline. The change seems to suggest that stakeholders somewhat perceive a less satisfactory quality of dialogue, coordination, cooperation, and partnership between stakeholders in the agricultural sector and government for advancing policy reforms on agriculture and food security issues in Zambia. Stakeholder perceptions of the quality of the institutional architecture of agriculture and food policy processes in Zambia barely changed—declining just by 0.05 points on a scale of 0 to 3 points) between 2017 and 2019. Although tests for significant changes in perceptions between baseline and endline are unreliable, the downward trend in the overall perceptions of the quality of policy processes and institutional architecture indicate that, among other things, there is room for the agricultural and food security policy processes in Zambia to be more inclusive, engage more with stakeholders, and more effectively utilize the available empirical evidence to inform policy design. The perceived objectivity of current policy analyses in Zambia should strengthen the use of evidence to inform policy processes in the country. In addition, there is need to strengthen monitoring and evaluation systems of progress towards achieving agricultural development goals and to make resources available to support policy implementation. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2020–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303527&r=all |
| By: | Laura Schmitt-Olabisi; Saweda Liverpool- Tasie; Robert Onyeneke; Onyinye Choko; Bukola Osuntade; Awa Sanou; Udita Singa; Stella Chude Chiemela |
| Abstract: | Key Findings -There is no ‘silver bullet’ technology which will solve the problem of climate adaptation -Nigerian farmers and communities are already implementing climate adaptation practices -Climate adaptation efforts should draw on principles of resilience to be more effective -Effective climate adaptation will require coordination across multiple sectors of the Nigerian economy and society |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2020–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffpb:303596&r=all |
| By: | Mulako Kabisa; Brian P. Mulenga; Hambulo Ngoma; Mercy Mupeta Kandulu |
| Abstract: | In Zambia, agricultural land expansion is responsible for 90 percent of forest cover loss (Mabeta, Mweemba, and Mwitwa 2018), followed by settlement expansion and infrastructure development; its annual deforestation estimated between 167,000 and 300,000 hectares is among the highest worldwide. Charcoal is becoming an increasingly important driver of deforestation and forest degradation due to its increasing role as a cooking and space-heating energy source, predominantly among urban households. The erratic and limited supply of electricity in recent times, coupled with increased electricity tariffs, limited access, acceptability, and prohibitive costs of alternative energy sources has increased urban demand for charcoal—a situation likely to continue in the foreseeable future. The heightened demand for charcoal, which will continue to increase, has far-reaching environmental consequences. This study sought to find ways in which the charcoal value chain (CVC) can be made more sustainable in Zambia, with a view of reducing charcoal-induced deforestation and global warming. It meant to answer the questions of how charcoal production and trade is governed, lessons learned from constraints experienced in making charcoal production sustainable, and the opportunities for “greening” the charcoal value chain1 . This was done through extensive review of relevant literature, both grey and published, the 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) data, and key informant interviews (KII). Zambia has a comprehensive policy framework on sustainable management of forestry resources, which recognizes that increased charcoal use is driven by the desire to meet household energy needs and is a livelihood option for many of the poor. The main challenges in sustainably managing resources and greening the CVC include the unorganised nature of production making it difficult to organise and monitor production, limited financing, and weak enforcement and compliance with regulations. There are also cultural myths associated with the use of charcoal to cook food, with some having a clear preference for using it to cook traditional food because it gives the food good taste and/or texture (Tembo, Mulenga, and Sitko 2015; Chidumayo 2002). There are many opportunities to implement sustainable charcoal production for the short- and medium term including financing sustainable charcoal production interventions to facilitate: 1) forming charcoal associations that can be the eyes on the ground for the Forestry Department; 2) sensitization campaigns on sustainably produced charcoal and its importance; 3) providing support to producers by setting up woodlots and nurseries for fast growing species with irrigation support for biomass; 4) support for the development of improved kilns; 5) forestry extension to raise awareness on sustainable production practices and the rules and regulations on licensing; 6) promotion of efficient cookstoves for the general public; and 7) investigating the seepage of charcoal into the region—an area that is still overlooked as a driver of production. In the long term, there is a need to provide alternative livelihoods appropriate for the agroecological zones to help producers transition from charcoal production, because poverty and lack of employment are some of the main drivers for charcoal production. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2020–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303526&r=all |
| By: | Etienne ESPAGNE; Nicolas DE LAUBIER-LONGUET MARX |
| Abstract: | This paper measures the marginal impact of climate variability on Vietnamese households’ income. We combine survey data from the Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) database with daily climate data from the Climate Prediction Center to estimate the response function of Vietnamese households’ revenues to past climate variability. We focus on the non-linearity of the response and notably on the impacts of extremely warm days. We find that on average an additional day above 33°C is associated with a decrease of the yearly income by 1.3%. This strong effect is not specific to the agricultural sector. It is highest for the lowest deciles of the revenue distribution. Using projection scenarios under the Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5, we find an estimated impact of global warming of up to 100% of households’ revenues in 2090s in some regions (Northern region and the Red River Delta area) under RCP8.5. These strong negative impacts are also likely to be specifically concentrated on poor households and to increase revenue inequalities. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en9477&r=all |
| By: | Mitik, Lulit; Fofana, Ismaël; Diallo, Mariam Amadou |
| Abstract: | The study developed a results framework to analyze Rwanda’s progress towards selected CAADP/Malabo, SDGs and Agenda 2063 goals. A Computable General Equilibrium model linked to an income distribution Micro-Simulation model were used to identify priority investment areas for accelerated agricultural growth, poverty and inequality reduction. The current investment trend simulated in the baseline scenario would leave Rwanda off-track to meet these objectives. The analysis of alternative agricultural investment scenarios shows that enhancing the role of the private sector in agriculture will be critical in curbing supply side constraints. The government plays a central role by creating an environment and making the sector more attractive to private investors. Developments outside of the agricultural sector and social protection will be critical to further reduce poverty. Productivity remains one of the major challenges but also one of the most effective solutions for accelerated agricultural growth in Rwanda. Agricultural investments should be designed considering the agricultural value-chain. |
| Keywords: | RWANDA, CENTRAL AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, agricultural development, economic development, development plans, poverty, Sustainable Development Goals, models, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:agrowp:44&r=all |
| By: | Hambulo Ngoma; Brian P. Mulenga; Jason Snyder; Alefa Banda; Antony Chapoto |
| Abstract: | While it is generally accepted that climate change will exacerbate poverty for small and medium sized farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the coming years, at least due to rising variability and rainfall shocks (Mulenga, Wineman, and Sitko 2017; Hallegatte et al. 2016), a number of questions remain unanswered. Which types of the poor are more exposed to climate risk and how do the impacts of climate and weather shocks vary across stochastically and structurally poor households? Addressing these questions is crucial for improved targeting of interventions intended to build the resilience of smallholder farmers. Smallholder farmers’ reliance almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture and their limited capacity to cope with weather shocks exposes them to climate risks. Weather shocks negatively impact smallholders through their effects on agricultural productivity, which is the mainstay of rural smallholder households. If left unchecked, weather shocks can lead to increased poverty incidence and intensity. In this paper, we utilize data from a nationally representative two-wave panel of recent agricultural household surveys to conduct a high resolution analysis of the spatial distribution of poverty, and how the different types of poverty are impacted by exposure to climate change variability. The data allows us to (a) control for observed and unobserved sources of household heterogeneity, and (b) distinguish between the structurally poor, i.e., those households that have very little assets or savings, and the stochastically poor, i.e., those households that have low savings but enough assets that they could liquidate if necessary to smooth consumption during a climate shock Out of the 14,508 rural households interviewed in Zambia in 2012 and 2015, about 51% were structurally poor (low income and assets) and 5% were stochastically poor (low income and high assets). About 23% of households that were structurally poor in 2012 remained structurally poor in 2015, hence, chronically poor. A third of the structurally not poor in 2012 fell into poverty in 2015, while about 19% of poor households in 2012 managed to escape poverty in 2015. Structurally poor households in Zambia are more exposed to drought risk. Lower than normal rainfall, as measured by a negative precipitation index, significantly increases the probability of being structurally poor by 2.3 percentage points. Three implications follow from our findings. First, there is a need for well-structured and targeted social promotion programs to lift the viable but chronically and structurally poor and stochastically poor households from poverty. This can be achieved within the agricultural sector by using the electronic voucher delivery systems to better target large-scale, anti-poverty programs such as the farmer input support program. Along with improved targeting, the use of the electronic based voucher systems crowds-in private sector investments, which make available diverse inputs for farmers and also help develop the rural nonfarm sector where farmers can earn extra incomes. Smart-subsidies should be flanked by output market linkages and/or market development in order to enhance market participation and help improve incomes from agricultural production. Second, for those not commercially viable, there is a need for a better targeted and sustained social welfare program specifically meant for this group. Thus there is need for sustained social protection (e.g., social cash transfers) in order to prevent the non-poor from falling into poverty. And lastly, the intricate linkages among climate variability, climate risk, and poverty call for more support to enable farmers not only adapt to, but also mitigate climate change and variability. Such support may be v directed towards climate-smart agriculture adoption, autonomous and planned adaptation, improved extension, and climate information services. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303061&r=all |
| By: | Nicole M. Mason; Auckland Kuteya; Danielle Resnick; Vincenzina Caputo; Mywish Maredia; Robert Shupp; Hambulo Ngoma |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence from around the world suggests that public good investments in agricultural research and development (R&D), extension, and rural roads often yield relatively higher returns, while expenditures on private goods like agricultural subsidies often yield relatively lower returns. In contrast, the Zambian government devotes large shares of its agricultural sector spending to subsidies, leaving little money to devote to other agricultural sector programs and investments. No previous studies have attempted to measure Zambian smallholder farmers’ or other stakeholders’ preferences for different types of public expenditures. This paper summarizes the key insights from data on these preferences collected between 2015 and 2019 through four different surveys (the 2015 and 2019 Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Surveys--RALS15 and RALS19; a 2017 E Voucher Survey; and a 2019 stakeholder survey) and two different methodologies (a single open-ended question in RALS15 and RALS19; and the Best Worst Scaling [BWS] method in the E-Voucher survey and stakeholder survey). |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303062&r=all |
| By: | Yoko Kusunose; Nicole M. Mason; Solomon Tembo |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the effects of negative crop income shocks in one season persist in subsequent seasons due to reductions in crop inputs. If bad seasons cause household cash constraints to bind, and this results in the scaling back of the next season’s production, the next season’s crop income is also compromised, potentially creating a poverty trap. Troublingly, households most susceptible to such a poverty trap mechanism are likely to be those that rely the most on own-farm production and have the fewest sources of liquidity—in other words, the poorest. We use data from a three-wave (2001, 2004, and 2008), nationally-representative survey of smallholder farm households in Zambia to test for the effect of rainfall shocks—interacted with measures of household liquidity—on investment in maize production in the following season. We focus specifically on the ability (or inability) of farm households to invest in own-farm maize production in the form of mineral fertilizer use, improved seed use, and area allocated to maize. We use three liquidity measures: livestock, regular off-farm wage employment, and access to subsidies/loans for fertilizer purchase. A priori, we predict that the presence of such liquidity sources will protect maize investments from negative income shocks in the previous seasons. These liquidity measures may be endogenous to the input decisions; we therefore use panel data methods and an instrumental variables/control function approach. Additionally, we test whether reduced maize inputs do indeed cause reduced maize income and, ultimately, total income. Our results show that the effects of rainfall shocks in one agricultural season persist into the subsequent season in the form of reduced maize inputs. The estimated effect of reduced inputs on the following season’s income, however, is modest. However, we must keep in mind that this estimated modest effect is the average effect across all sampled households. Whether this mechanism constitutes a poverty trap for a particular household depends on that household's overall reliance on farm production, as well as the distribution of rainfall shocks that it faces. For households that rely overwhelmingly on crops and typically experience multiple deficit periods in bad years, even two or three consecutively bad years could still pose a poverty trap. Surprisingly, liquidity—as measured by livestock, salaried household members, and fertilizer subsidy access—does not increase households’ ability to smooth inputs. It is important to note, however, that livestock and salaried household members may not be appropriate liquidity measures for the poorer households in the sample. Given that inputs decrease as a result of (negative) rainfall shocks in previous seasons, and given the ability to observe rainfall shocks over Zambia at a fine scale, input divestment might be predicted, geographically, based on rainfall patterns. On a season-to-season basis, the allocation of resources through programs such as the Farmer Input Support Program (FISP) could be informed by these predictions of input divestment. That way, programs such as the FISP would pose less of a crowding-out threat to existing sources of fertilizer, and more effectively target the neediest communities each season. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303040&r=all |
| By: | Renda, Andrea; Reynolds, Nicole; Laurer, Moritz; Cohen, Gal |
| Abstract: | As climate change increasingly poses an existential risk for the Earth, scientists and policymakers turn to agriculture and food as areas for urgent and bold action, which need to return within acceptable Planet Boundaries. The links between agriculture, biodiversity and climate change have become so evident that scientists propose a Great Food Transformation towards a healthy diet by 2050 as a major way to save the planet. Achieving these milestones, however, is not easy, both based on current indicators and on the gloomy state of global dialogue in this domain. This is why digital technologies such as wireless connectivity, the Internet of Things, Artificial Intelligence and blockchain can and should come to the rescue. This report looks at the many ways in which digital solutions can be implemented on the ground to help the agrifood chain transform itself to achieve more sustainability. Together with the solution, we identify obstacles, challenges, gaps and possible policy recommendations. Action items are addressed at the European Union both as an actor of change at home, and in global governance, and are spread across ten areas, from boosting connectivity and data governance to actions aimed at empowering small farmers and end users. |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:cepswp:25701&r=all |
| By: | Choudhury, Pranab R.; Ghosh, Ranjan K.; Sindhi, Sumita |
| Abstract: | For a COVID-19 like pandemic, the Achilles heel is an unsuspecting villain – rapid and global land use changes. The way governments, businesses and communities see, relate to and use land, not only influences the outbreak but also determines their impact on humanity and development. Drawing upon empirical evidences from epidemiology and land governance, this article argues why the current situation implores the need to focus on the interaction between land use and global diseases. Apart from dwelling on causal links, we discuss the externalities that industrial, urban and rural development in India are poised to face because of the pandemic’s potential impact on land, biodiversity and wildlife habitat, property rights and housing. We also underline reform options for policy and practice, that must be discussed and acted upon. |
| Date: | 2020–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14624&r=all |
| By: | Megan O. Bellinger; Milu Muyanga; David Mather; Henry Machina; Nicole M. Mason |
| Abstract: | Great attention is paid on an international scale to the flow of people away from rural areas, with the prevailing opinion suggesting that there is a mass migration from rural villages to increasingly overcrowded cities. However, rural to rural (intra-rural) migration remains an important source of mobility for individuals, especially those who wish to remain connected to their families and places of origin (see FAO 2007). Migration can achieve a multitude of objectives for individuals and their families, as well as the communities who send and receive the migrants. These objectives include income diversification, geographic diversification, risk reduction, social network growth, and income stabilization (Sakho-Jimbira and Bignebat 2006; FAO 2007). The situations and motivations of youth and young adults, which we define as 15-24 and 25-35 year olds, respectively, are of particular interest to us because people in this age group have a lifetime of productivity and income generation ahead of them. They are also entering the workforce as Zambia becomes more integrated into the global market, takes in investment from outside countries, and faces previously unforeseen challenges and opportunities in access to land and non-farm and off-farm employment. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of various drivers of migration on the decisions made by youth and young adults to migrate, with a particular emphasis on the impacts of land access, inheritance patterns, and business and wage opportunities in migration decisions. We investigate this research question using descriptive and econometric analysis of data from the Rural Agricultural Livelihood Survey (RALS). In this work, information from 2012 serves as explanatory variables related to an outcome of having migrated by the next survey wave in 2015. Variables of interest and control variables were chosen through a literature review of current work on youth and migration in Africa. Results indicate that the ability to buy and sell land is correlated with a higher likelihood of migration for those who migrated to rural areas and for those aged 15-24. However, we find that for all age categories, nonfarm employment opportunities have significant correlations with likelihood of migration. Participation in businesses in natural resources (such as charcoal selling or fishing) and businesses in construction (such as brickmaking) are strongly associated with a lower likelihood of migration among youth in the sample. By contrast, employment in a private nonagricultural wage or salaried job (such as working for a bank) is associated with a much higher likelihood of migration among young adults. In the overall sample, participation in value-added food businesses (such as owning a bakery) and private non-agricultural businesses (such as shop owning or tailoring) are associated with lower likelihoods of migration. Additionally, when broken out by destination type (rural or urban) we find that individuals who are engaged in a relatively profitable business activity are less likely to migrate to rural areas, while young adults who are engaged in salaried or wage employment are more likely to migrate, especially to an urban destination. Not only is it important to understand driving factors associated with migration to contribute to the international literature on the subject, better understanding of these factors may also be important to communities who hope to retain their young populations or attract others to contribute to agricultural and off-farm community productivity and development. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303520&r=all |
| By: | Elkerbout, Milan; Egenhofer, Christian; Núñez Ferrer, Jorge; Catuti, Mihnea; Kustova, Irina; Rizos, Vasileios |
| Abstract: | Climate change policy cannot be the first priority of the EU for the immediate future. However, in spite of the corona-crisis the urgency of climate change mitigation has not disappeared. The post-corona recovery can both put the EU’s decarbonisation progress back on track – after low-carbon investments will inevitably take a hit – but the EU’s Green Deal proposals can likewise support the general economic recovery. It will be important to ensure that recovery measures are compatible with global climate change and European Green Deal priorities so that stimulus money will flow to economic activities that have a place in a climate-neutral world. As time passes, the re-launch may actually offer a unique opportunity for the EU to live up to the Green Deal’s promise of economic modernisation along the Paris decarbonisation objectives. The period we have until the relaunch should be used to develop a new agenda. These ideas will not per se be off-the-shelf but go beyond current solutions for decarbonisation. Instead of tinkering around the margins, the EU should focus on transformational technologies, and for example go big on low-carbon infrastructure, efficient buildings, and lead markets to boost demand for climate-neutral industry. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:cepswp:26869&r=all |
| By: | Meerza, Syed Imran Ali; Giannakas, Konstantinos; Yiannaka, Amalia |
| Date: | 2020–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nbaece:303630&r=all |
| By: | Griffith, Andrew P.; Boyer, Christopher N.; Rhinehart, Justin D.; Carter, Courtney |
| Abstract: | Cattle breeders have long used natural service (NS) breeding (i.e., live bulls breeding cows as they naturally show heat), and it remains the predominant practice for most cow-calf producers. However, many cattle breeders have embraced the use of reproductive technologies such as artificial insemination (AI), estrus synchronization (ES) and embryo transfer (ET). The use of AI — more specifically timed AI (TAI; synchronized estrus to inseminate all cows in a group at the same time) — has garnered increased attention from seedstock and commercial producers over the past decade. There are several reasons producers have adopted AI including: • Access to genetics from sires that are cost prohibitive if purchasing a bull for natural service. • Selecting genetics from multiple bulls to complement individual cows in the same mating group. • Owning and managing fewer bulls. • Narrowing the time frame of calving for the herd. TAI has been widely adopted in beef production because it offers the benefits of AI, while reducing and concentrating the quantity of labor related to estrous detection (“checking heat”). Moreover, the modern ES protocols for TAI can shorten the calving season while increasing overall calving rate. Even with these positive attributes, and numerous other benefits, many producers still view TAI as cost prohibitive. Thus, it is imperative to compare the costs and benefits for both TAI and NS to determine which breeding program is the most ideal for a given scenario. Given the production benefits from TAI mentioned above, a clear indication of whether the production benefits exceed additional costs should be reached before deciding to implement this breeding technology in an operation. The objective of this paper is to compare the costs and revenues resulting from TAI against the costs and revenues resulting from NS breeding systems. These attributes will be compared across different size operations and across the typical range of pregnancy rates expected from application of a single TAI to begin the breeding season. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Financial Economics, Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2020–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:utaeer:303636&r=all |
| By: | Giovanniello, Monica (Universitat de les Illes Balears); Perroni, Carlo (University of Warwick and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | Uncoordinated responses for the preservation of global commons result in excessive delay – months or years in relation to climate change, days or weeks in a pandemic |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1262&r=all |
| By: | Kenneth HOUNGBEDJI; Isabelle TRITSCH |
| Abstract: | To allow for the production of timber while preserving conservation values, forestry regulations in the Congo Basin have made Forest Management Plans (FMPs) mandatory in logging concessions. This paper uses original high resolution maps of forest-cover changes and official records on the activities of logging concessions to analyze the impact of FMPs on deforestation in this region. We apply quasi-experimental and difference-in-difference approaches to evaluate the change in deforestation in concessions that implemented an FMP. We find that between 2000 and 2010, deforestation was 74% lower in concessions with an FMP compared to others. Building on a theory of change, further analyses revealed that this decrease in deforestation takes at least five years to occur, and is highest around communities located in and nearby logging concessions and in areas close to previous deforestation. These findings suggest that FMPs reduce deforestation by allowing concessions to rotate cycles of timber extraction, thereby avoiding the overexploitation of areas that were previously logged, and by the better regulation of access to concessions by closing former logging roads to limit illegal activities such as slash and burn agriculture, hunting and the illegal harvest of timber or fuelwood. |
| Keywords: | Cameroun, Congo, Gabon, République centrafricaine |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en9560&r=all |
| By: | Aakanksha Melkani; Nicole M. Mason; David L. Mather; Brian Chisanga |
| Abstract: | Smallholder participation in agricultural output markets holds potential to move farmers out of subsistence farming to more commercial and profitable agricultural enterprise (Heltberg and Tarp 2002; Barrett 2008; Von Braun et al. 1994; Timmer 1988). Yet, a relatively low portion of smallholder farmers participate in food markets as net sellers in many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries (Barrett 2008; Mather, Boughton, and Jayne 2013). Most studies that empirically study the reasons behind this low participation have focused on transaction costs of accessing output markets such as poor roads, infrastructure, and/or insufficient endowments of public and private assets. However, constraints that limit a household’s capacity to produce a surplus beyond meeting its consumption needs could also limit a household’s capacity to be a part of commercial agriculture. One such constraint is the inability to invest in productivity enhancing agricultural inputs such as inorganic fertilizer and improved seed due to lack of liquidity (i.e. cash from income or credit) at time of planting. There is clear evidence that liquidity constraints at planting time lead to lower agricultural output (Winter-Nelson and Temu 2005; Foltz 2004; Feder et al. 1990). This paper extends this literature to assess the extent to which liquidity constraints that constrain agricultural output can subsequently also limit the household’s capacity to sell agricultural output. Liquidity constraints are also known to make agricultural households “sell low, buy high”, i.e. they sell their grain output immediately after harvest (when prices are lowest) to meet cash needs, and then they end up buying grain later in the lean season when prices rise. This behavior could also potentially have an impact on the marketing channel that is chosen by the participants of agricultural output markets, particularly if a channel is characterized by uncertainty of the time of purchase, purchase price, and delays in payment. We base this study on the maize markets of Zambia. Maize is the staple food grain of Zambia, is grown by almost all farm households and is an important source of cash for many of them (Chapoto et al 2015). Using data from the Rural Agricultural Livelihood Survey (RALS), a nationally representative two-wave panel dataset of smallholder farm households in Zambia for 2012 and 2015, we study the following questions for maize smallholders in Zambia: First, we assess whether liquidity constraints during the maize production period affect a farm household’s decision to participate as a net seller of maize. We then study whether liquidity constrained households are less responsive to changes in maize prices with respect to this decision. Finally, we explore whether liquidity constraints have an effect on the choice of marketing channels for net sellers of maize. This third question is of particular interest in the case of Zambia given the significant role played by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) in both its domestic maize market and in agricultural policy in general. The role of the FRA is particularly relevant to our interest in the effect of liquidity constraints on a smallholder’s choice of maize marketing channel because, although the FRA typically purchases maize from farmers at a price that is higher than the prevailing producer sale price, the timing of FRA maize purchases each marketing season is uncertain. More significantly, there is typically a relatively long and unpredictable delay in FRA’s payment to farmers for the maize they purchase from them. We define a household as liquidity constrained in the maize production period if one or both of the following conditions are met (following the approach similar to Winter- Nelson and Temu (2005)): (1) The household claims to not have acquired fertilizer from market due to lack of cash, and/or (2) the household claims to not have obtained fertilizer from the Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP) due to: a) not being able to afford the down payment for obtaining fertilizer through FISP and/or b) lack of cash for the mandatory cooperative membership payment required for participation in the program. We find that more than half of all smallholders in the sample were liquidity constrained in 2012 and 2015. Being liquidity constrained is found to be associated with lower input use, smaller maize productivity and output per capita, less ownership of land-holding and livestock among other factors. The three main maize marketing channels in Zambia were identified as the FRA, private traders and other households, which were chosen by 47, 42 and 11 percent of maize net sellers for their largest maize transactions, respectively. We have five main findings from our regression analysis. First, we find that liquidity constraints during the production period is associated with an 11 percent reduction in the probability that a liquidity-constrained household is a net seller of maize. Although we are not able to establish causality in this relationship, it appears that because liquidity constrained households are not able to adequately invest in productivity-enhancing inputs, this limits their capacity to produce a marketable surplus, thereby decreasing their probability of being a net seller of maize. Second, we find that while households without liquidity constraints have a statistically significant positive response to higher maize prices, liquidity-constrained households do not respond to changes in maize prices. This suggests that because LC households are less likely to acquire productivity-enhancing inputs, this mutes their responsiveness to changes in the maize price. Third, we find that measures of market access based on the distance from the household or village to the nearest agricultural market or main district town (boma) do not have a large effect on the probability of being a net seller, for either liquidity-constrained or unconstrained households. While this result may seem counterintuitive, it is important to note that it does not imply that “market access” or road and market infrastructure do not play an important role in promoting and facilitating market participation by smallholders. What it does imply is that our use of maize prices adjusted for transportation costs to and from each village appear to be capturing an important part of differences in farmgate maize prices between more and less remote villages. In addition, these results suggest that transaction costs of searching for price information and buyers appear to be relatively low – perhaps due to relative proximity to FRA depots, good access to private traders (who visit 75 percent of villages), and the fact that nearly all villages have cell network access -- and/or that these transaction costs are being captured by other explanatory variables such as ownership of a cell phone. These results suggest that market access and competitiveness in output market in Zambia may not be as poor as is often assumed in literature. Fourth, we find that an additional expected moisture stress period during the growing season reduces the probability that a liquidity-constrained household is a net seller by 16 percent. This highlights the vulnerability of smallholder maize production in Zambia to drought and the potential benefit of the adoption of soil management practices and drought-tolerant maize varieties that can help to mitigate the negative effects of drought on crop productivity (Ajayi et al 2007; Haggblade, Tembo, and Donovan 2004). Finally, we find that liquidity-constrained households are 18 percent less likely to sell to the FRA, and are thereby unable to enjoy the benefits of higher FRA maize purchase prices. Although we are not able to discern the specific reason for this result based on our research to date, we expect that this may be due to uncertainty regarding the timing of FRA maize purchases each year as well as the typically long delay in payment by the FRA to farmers. Our results demonstrate that liquidity constraints can limit smallholder participation in food grain markets as net sellers, reduce their responsiveness to changes in maize prices, and limit their access to relatively high FRA maize purchase prices. They also provide additional evidence that relatively well-off farmers (those that are not liquidity constrained) are best able to access the benefits of FRA maize purchase prices that are higher than those offered by the private sector. Further research is needed to explore policies that can reduce liquidity constraints at time of planting and incorporate mechanisms for productivity enhancement as a measure for encouraging commercial agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303521&r=all |
| By: | Fatemeh Mojtahedi (Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University); Seyed Mojtaba Mojaverian (Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University); Daniel Felix Ahelegbey (Università di Pavia); Paolo Giudici (Università di Pavia) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the extreme downside correlations and hedge (EDC and EDH) methodology of Harris et al. (2019) to model the tail risk co-movement of financial assets under severe firm-level and market conditions. The model is applied to analyze both systematic and systemic exposures in the Iranian food industry. The empirical application address the following questions: 1) which food company is the safest for investors to diversify their investment, and 2) which companies are the risk “transmitters” and “receivers”, especially in turbulent times. To this end, we sampled the time series of 11 manufacturing companies and proxy the market indicator with the food industry index, all of which are publicly listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). The data covers daily close prices from October 5, 2015, to January15, 2020. The systematic analysis reveals a positive and statistically significant relationship between the tail risk of the companies and the market index. The centrality analysis of the systemic exposures reveals Mahram Manufacturing as the safest and Behshahr Industries as the riskiest company. We also find evidence that W.Azar.Pegah is the main “transmitter” of tail risk, while Pegah.Fars.Co is the main “receiver” of risk. |
| Keywords: | Food industry, Extreme downside hedge, Extreme downside correlation, Systematic risk, Systemic risk. |
| JEL: | C31 C58 G01 G12 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0189&r=all |
| By: | Paul A. Hindsley; O. Ashton Morgan |
| Abstract: | Recent research in the social psychology literature suggests that personally held beliefs may play a pivotal role in individuals’ acceptance of environmental policy. We extend previous work in this area by providing a contingent valuation method (CVM) framework that examines the interaction between cultural worldviews and willingness to pay for a policy that mitigates environmental risk. Results from a bivariate probit model indicate that individuals with communitarian and egalitarian worldviews are willing to pay significantly more for the environmental policy. We further investigate the role of cultural worldview on individuals’ support for, and valuation of, environmental policies that differ by their underlying cause. Again, cultural worldview is important and point estimates of mean willingness to pay increase if the proposed policy is designed to mitigate the effects of climate change-related issues as opposed to a more local pollution threat. Finally, results indicate that cultural worldviews also influence respondents’ perceived consequentiality with potentially important ramifications for eliciting stated preferences in a CVM framework. Key Words: Contingent valuation; cultural worldview; willingness to pay; environmental policy |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:20-03&r=all |
| By: | Natalia Bailey; Zvi Hochman; Yufeng Mao; Mervyn J. Silvapulle; Param Silvapulle |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a statistical model to estimate and evaluate the predictability of the response of wheat yield to extreme temperature exposures and rainfall during the three phases of wheat grain production (vegetative, reproductive and grain filling) in northwestern (NW) Victoria, Australia. Unlike crop models which rely on functions developed from field experiments, we use observed data on annual wheat yields from 44 farms in the region over a period of 26 years (1993-2018). We find that the one-way fixed effects panel data model tends to outperform competing models in the out-of-sample prediction of future yields. We detect as positive drivers of NW Victorian wheat yield growth, exposure to moderate temperatures in all the three phases of the wheat production and total rainfall in the first two phases of the growing season. Providing adequate soil moisture, January-March rainfall also was found to be a positive driver of yields. Conversely, exposure to freezing temperatures during the vegetative and reproductive phases as well as to extreme high temperatures in all three phases of wheat production constitute negative drivers of NW Victorian wheat yields. The reproductive phase appears to be the most sensitive to climate variability, with adverse extreme heat and frost having sizeable negative impacts on yields. These negative effects are partially offset by increased rainfall in the same phase of wheat production. Moreover, we compare yield predictions by our statistical model to yield potentials calculated by APSIM. The gaps can be used to make recommendations on some adaptation opportunities available to farmers in the NW Victoria region. |
| Keywords: | extreme temperature exposure, crop yields, threshold-panel data model. |
| JEL: | C23 C53 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2020-18&r=all |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin |
| Abstract: | (Agro)ecosystem services is a „new“ term, which is rapidly and widely used in academic studies, and policies and business practices around the globe. Nevertheless, in many countries around the globe, studies associated with agroecosystem services and their „management“ are at the beginning stage. This article suggests a holistic framework for defining, evaluating and improving the system of governance of agro-ecosystem services. The interdisciplinary Theory of Ecosystem Services and the New Institutional Economy are adapted, and the governance of agroecosystem services defined, various related agents identified, principle forms and mechanisms of governance classified, an adequate criterion for assessing efficiency formulated, and stages for analysis and improvement of the system of governance characterized. The proposed new approach is based on the „building up“ of a hierarchy of agro-ecosystems and services related to its different levels, and an assessment of the efficiency and complementarities of the governance modes and mechanisms, corresponding to each level of „provision“ of agroecosystem services. |
| Keywords: | agro-ecosystems, services, governance, market, private, public modes, efficiency |
| JEL: | Q1 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q18 Q2 Q3 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100117&r=all |
| By: | William J. Burke; Stephen N. Morgan; Thelma Namonje; Milu Muyanga; Nicole M. Mason |
| Abstract: | Key Findings -Comparing self-reported to GPS measurements, we find farmers frequently mis-state the size of their fields in survey data -Although errors are often made in either direction on all field sizes, we find evidence that, on average, smaller fields tend to overstate and larger fields tend to understate actual field size. -Input application rates are more consistent with self-reported area than GPS-measured area, suggesting farmers believe the inaccurate data they provide. -Productivity itself and productivity measurement are hampered by area measurement errors in self- reported data, highlighting important deficiencies in data collection and farmer training. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2019–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffpb:303621&r=all |
| By: | Fergusson, L; Saavedra, S; Vargas, J. F |
| Abstract: | Research on deforestation has grown exponentially due to the availability of satellitebased measures of forest cover. One of the most popular is Global Forest Change (GFC). Using GFC, we estimate that the Colombian civil conflict increases ‘forest cover’. Using an alternative source that validates the same remote sensing images in the ground, we find the opposite effect. This occurs because, in spite of its name, GFC measures tree cover, including vegetation other than native forest. Most users of GFC seem unaware of this. In our case, most of the conflicting results are explained by GFC’s misclassification of oil palm crops as ‘forest’. Our findings call for caution when using automated classification of imagery for specific research questions. |
| Keywords: | Forest Cover, Conflict, Measurement. |
| JEL: | D74 Q23 Q34 |
| Date: | 2020–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:018153&r=all |
| By: | Anthony Black; Lawrence Edwards; Ruth Gorven; Willard Mapulanga |
| Abstract: | Regional integration in Africa is underway but ongoing progress requires that the gains are widely spread. South Africa's huge regional trade surplus in manufactured goods is already leading to protectionist pressures in neighbouring countries. Agro-processing is a large sector, which is widely regarded as having significant potential, but the export performance of the region has been quite poor if South Africa is excluded. Intra-regional trade is dominated by South Africa's exports to the region. The share of processed goods in agricultural trade has increased but only modestly. |
| Keywords: | Regional integration, Agriculture, Agro-processing, supplier development, Exports, tariffs, Value chains |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-36&r=all |
| By: | Li, Yanan; Liu, Yanyan; Hoffmann, Vivian; Zhang, Jian |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine antibiotic use in the Chinese hog farming sector. China warrants special atten-tion for several reasons. First, China is both the largest producer and the largest consumer of antibiotics in the world (Zhu et al. 2013). Second, it leads the world in use of antimicrobial drugs in livestock (Van Boeckel et al. 2015). Third, several studies have shown higher levels of antibiotic resistance in China than in other countries (Zhang et al. 2006; Hu et al. 2014; Hvistendahl 2012). Finally, the combination of high rates of antibiotic use and weak regulatory enforcement make China an ideal setting in which to examine the drivers of antimicrobial use in livestock production. |
| Keywords: | CHINA; EAST ASIA; ASIA; farm size; antimicrobials; antimicrobial resistance; livestock; vaccines; swine; biosecurity; antimicrobial use; hog breeds |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:1137477037&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Marie CARDEBAT; Philippe MASSET; Jean-Philippe WEISSKOPF |
| Abstract: | Press reports have praised the stability of fine wine prices over recent weeks. While stock, and even gold prices, fell sharply since the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis, the Liv-ex Investables Wine index only dropped by 2 to 3%. However, we expect a sharp correction of fine wine prices over the upcoming weeks or months according to an analysis of the fundamental determinants of fine wine prices, and a comparison with previous crises. |
| Keywords: | Wine; Finance; Covid-19 |
| JEL: | G10 Q14 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:bdxewp:2020-05&r=all |
| By: | Hambulo Ngoma; Paul Samboko; Chewe Nkonde; Davison Gumbo |
| Abstract: | The potential of a sustainable forest resource base to contribute to improved livelihoods is central in the development discourse. In sub-Saharan Africa and Zambia in particular, the missing piece in this narrative has been the availability of reliable data estimates of the extent to which forests contribute to key economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP). In this paper, we augment recent empirical strides that have been made in Zambia to estimate direct use values of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) by estimating the indirect and non-use values of these products. Our data are drawn from a primary contingent valuation survey of 352 households randomly selected from seven rural districts of Zambia. The survey elicited households’ willingness to pay (WTP) to preserve NTFPs for their indirect and non-use benefits (mostly ecosystem services) using the double bounded dichotomous question format. The current study addresses the following key questions: 1) What are the key indirect and non-use benefits for NTFPs in Zambia? 2) What is the economic value of the indirect and non-use benefits for NTFPs in Zambia? 3) What drives WTP to preserve NTFPs in Zambia? We highlight the key findings, conclusion and policy implications in turn. Key Findings Among interviewed households, about 60 and 30 % consider erosion control and climate regulation, respectively, as the two most important indirect-use benefits of, or ecosystem services associated with NTFPs in Zambia. On the other hand, pollination and water purification are correspondingly ranked third and fourth. We find similar results even after disaggregating the data by district and sex of the household head, and whether or not the household is environmentally aware, i.e., willing to pay to preserve NTFPs. About 60% of the respondents consider preservation of natural resources for future generations (bequest value) as the most important non-use benefit of NTFPs. The other non-use benefits of NTFPs—existence and altruistic values—are considered paramount by about 30 and 10% correspondingly of the surveyed households, respectively. These results are consistent at district level. Over time, NTFPs have become more difficult to collect or extract due to increased walking distances to points of extraction, with a marked increase in the effort and labour required to collect even small usable quantities. About 70% of the households in the sample were willing to pay to preserve NTFPs for their indirect and non-use benefits, suggesting that incentive based schemes may still have a role in conservation. Our empirical estimates of factors conjectured to drive WTP suggest that landholding size and the utilization of NTFPs are negatively associated with WTP to preserve NTFPs. Thus, non-binding land and access constraints may stifle conservation if considered in their own silos. Conversely, education level of the household head, household income, adult equivalents, distance from the homestead to the nearest main source for NTFPs, and considering the presented contingent valuation method (CVM) scenario as realistic, increases the WTP amount. Equally, considering bequest and altruistic values as most important non- use NTFP benefits relative to existence value is positively associated with the WTP amount. These findings suggest that education and environmentally friendly pro-social behaviors may be good levers for conservation. Overall, we estimate that households in the survey areas are willing to pay about ZMW164 (USD18) per hectare per year or ZMW485 (USD54) per household per year to preserve NTFPs. This translates to about USD48 million (using 2010 constant prices) at national level, giving an indicative total economic value of NTFPs of USD73 million in real terms (if we account for the direct-use benefits estimated by Dlamini and Samboko (2017)) at national level. Conclusion and Policy Implications Our main conclusion is that NTFPs have great potential to contribute to the economic wellbeing of rural households and the country in general. After accounting for the direct, indirect and non-use benefits, our conservative estimates suggest that NTFPs can potentially contribute about 0.3% to the gross domestic product in Zambia. This estimate is higher than previously thought and demonstrates, in line with extant literature, that considering only the direct use benefits underestimates the economic value of natural resources. Three main implications are as follows: Household and community engagements in natural resource management should be strengthened through education and awareness campaigns on the threats to forest resource use and how these can (should) be minimized in Zambia. This is necessary to promote environmentally friendly pro-social behavior and to create a citizenry that is environmentally aware—a necessary condition for sustainable natural resource use and management. The 0.3% potential contribution of non-timber forest products to gross domestic product should raise the impetus and fast-track implementation of sustainable forest management in Zambia, and should inform forestry policy more broadly. Because the majority of the households in the sample were willing to pay to preserve non- timber forest products implies that conservation can be enhanced with the ‘right’ incentive structures such as payments for ecosystem services. Questions on designs and modus operandi of such incentive schemes are empirical and remain the t-rex in the room. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303523&r=all |