nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2020‒05‒11
forty-six papers chosen by

  1. Household Dietary Patterns and the Cost of a Nutritious Diet in Myanmar By Kristi Mahrt; David Mather; Anna Herforth; Derek Headey
  2. Irrigation Development for Climate Resilience in Zambia: The Known Knowns and Known Unknowns By Hambulo Ngoma; Byman Hamududu; Peter Hangoma; Paul Samboko; Munguzwe Hichaambwa; Chance Kabaghe
  3. Is Conservation Agriculture Climate- Smart, or Can It Be? A Synthesis From Sub-Saharan Africa By Hambulo Ngoma; Arild Angelsen; Thomas S. Jayne; Antony Chapoto
  4. The Roles of Agroclimatic Similarity and Returns on Scale in the Demand for Mechanization: Insights from Northern Nigeria By Hiroyuki Takeshima
  5. Economic, pro-social and pro-environmental factors influencing participation in an incentive-based conservation program in Bolivia By Manon Authelet; Julie Subervie; Patrick Meyfroidt; Niguel Asquith; Driss Ezzine-de Blas
  6. Fertilizer Subsidy in Mali: Origins, Context and Evolution By Yénizié Koné; Véronique Thériault; Alpha Kergna; Melinda Smale
  7. On the Environmental Impacts of Voluntary Animal-based Policies in the EU: Technical and Political Considerations By Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Lamonaca, Emilia; Tappi, Marco; Di Gioia, Leonardo
  8. Land conservation in Kenya: The role of property rights By Jane Kabubo-Mariara.
  9. Scrutinizing The Status Quo: Rural Transformation and Land Tenure Security in Nigeria By Hosaena Ghebru; Fikirte Girmachew
  10. Role of Land Access in Youth Migration and Youth Employment Decisions: Empirical Evidence from Rural Nigeria By Hosaena Ghebru; Mulubrhan Amare; George Mavrotas; Adebayo Ogunniyi
  11. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Availability in Zambia: Implications for Irrigation Development By Byman H. Hamududu; Hambulo Ngoma
  12. Effects of Individual and Combined Water, Sanitation, Handwashing, and Nutritional Interventions on Child Respiratory Infections in Rural Kenya: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial By Jenna Swarthout; Pavani K. Ram; Charles D. Arnold; Holly N. Dentz; Benjamin F. Arnold; Stephen Kalungu; Audrie Lin; Sammy M. Njenga; Christine P. Stewart; John M. Colford Jr.; Clair Null; Amy J. Pickering
  13. Pay, Talk, or 'Whip' to Conserve Forests: Framed Field Experiments in Zambia By Hambulo Ngoma; Amare Teklay Hailu; Stephen Kabwe; Arild Angelsen
  14. Urban food markets and the lockdown in India By Sudha Narayanan; Shree Saha
  15. Are Agricultural Subsidies Gender Sensitive? Heterogeneous Impacts of the Farmer Input Support Program in Zambia By Henry Machina; Hambulo Ngoma; Auckland N. Kuteya
  16. Perceived Tenure (In)Security in the Era of Rural Transformation Gender-Disaggregated Analysis from Mozambique By Hosaena Ghebru; Fikirte Girmachew
  17. Identification of development strategy and intervention needs of AKIS in Bulgaria By Bachev, Hrabrin
  18. Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced rice losses in India? By Fontes, Francisco; Gorst, Ashley; Palmer, Charles
  19. The Role of the Locations of Public Sector Varietal Development Activities on Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Northern Nigeria By Hiroyuki Takeshima; Abdullahi Mohammed Nasir
  20. Dinner for three - EU, China and the US around the geographical indications table By Hu, Weinian
  21. Value Chain Analysis of Goats in Zambia: Challenges and Opportunities of Linking Smallholders to Markets By Thelma Namonje-Kapembwa; Harrison Chiwawa; Nicholas Sitko
  22. Dietary Patterns in Mali: Implications for Nutrition By Melinda Smale; Veronique Theriault; Ryan Vroegindewey
  23. Agricultural Machinery Business Development in Shan State: A Comparative Analysis By Eric Abaidoo; Ben Belton
  24. Ph.D in Economics, Option Agricultural Economics By Ngueuleweu Tiwang, Gildas
  25. Trade and environment: What can we learn from trade policy reviews? By Lim, Aik Hoe; Mathur, Sajal; Suk, Gowoon
  26. Climate change and coffee farm relocation in Ethiopia: a real-options approach By Luca Di Corato; Tsegaye Ginbo
  27. Impact of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership on FDI of Agriculture, Forestry and Seafood By Nguyen, V.C.
  28. Taking Stock and Looking Forward on Domestic Support under the WTO Agreement on Agriculture By Brink, Lars; Orden, David
  29. What Can We Learn from EU ETS? By Herman R. J. Vollebergh; Corjan Brink
  30. Extreme weather events and economic activity: The case of low water levels on the Rhine river By Ademmer, Martin; Jannsen, Nils; Mösle, Saskia
  31. Assessment of the Agricultural Risk of Temporary Water Storage for the FM Diversion Staging Area By Bangsund, Dean A.; Shaik, Saleem; Saxowsky, David; Hodur, Nancy M.; Ndembe, Elivs
  32. The Effects of Feed Costs and Increased Energy Needs on Broiler Farm Productivity: A Dynamic Programming Approach By Samantha Padilla; Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie; Robert J. Myers
  33. Understanding the role of inequality of opportunity in body mass index and waist circumference among Mexican adults By Salas-Ortiz, A.;
  34. Determinants of Child Labour and Schooling in the Native Cocoa Households of Côte d'Ivoire By Guy Blaise Nkamleu .
  35. Time-Consistent Carbon Pricing: The Role of Carbon Contracts for Differences By Olga Chiappinelli; Karsten Neuhoff
  36. Poverty Level Among Poultry Farming Households in Southwest Nigeria; A Multidimensional Approach. By Ojo, Idowu Oladeji; Popoola, David Prince
  37. Do Risk Preferences Really Matter? The Case of Pesticide Use in Agriculture By Bontemps, Christophe; Bougherara, Douadia; Nauges, Céline
  38. What Drives Food Processor Use of Local Versus Imported Inputs? Evidence from the Malian Dairy Sector By Ryan Vroegindewey; Véronique Thériault; Robert Richardson; Kimberly Chung
  39. Climate change awareness: Empirical evidence for the European Union By Donatella Baiardi; Claudio Morana
  40. Why Has Wage Growth Been Subdued in the Advanced Foreign Economies? By Kaede Johnson; Stephen F. Lin; Tyler Powell
  41. Modeling Trade and Income Distribution in Six Developing Countries A dynamic general equilibrium analysis up to the year 2050 By Wolfgang Britz; Yaghoob Jafari; Alexandr Nekhay; Roberto Roson
  42. Socio-economic dimensions of the Bioeconomy – selected findings for trends in the recent past By Lara Ahmann; Martin Distelkamp; Dr. Christian Lutz; Dr. Markus Flaute
  43. Spatial simultaneous autoregressive models for compositional data: Application to land use By Thomas-Agnan, Christine; Laurent, Thibault; Ruiz-Gazen, Anne; Nguyen, T.H.A; Chakir, Raja; Lungarska, Anna
  44. Feasibility of a Tennessee Cull-Cow Processing Facility By Hughes, David W.; Yu, Edward; Griffith, Andrew P.; Wilson, Brad; Loveday, Dwight; Crissy, Harry; Schrick, Neal
  45. Improving Agricultural Policy System Performance in Mali: Stakeholder Diagnostics and Prescriptions By Abdramane Traoré; Amadou Samaké; Ousmane Sanogo; Steven Haggblade; Yenizie Koné
  46. The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy By Shapiro, Joseph S.

  1. By: Kristi Mahrt; David Mather; Anna Herforth; Derek Headey
    Abstract: Although Myanmar has made progress in reducing malnutrition, its prevalence among young children remains high, as 26.7 percent of children age 6-59 months are moderately or severely stunted (MoHS, 2019). Furthermore, nutrient inadequacy remains widespread. The National Nutrition Centre (NNC) in the Ministry of Health and Sports (MoHS) has identified and implemented interventions for five conditions resulting from under-nutrition: protein energy malnutrition, iron deficiency anemia, vitamin B1 deficiency (also known as beriberi), vitamin A deficiency, and iodine deficiency disorder (ibid, 2019). For example, recent evidence from the Myanmar Micronutrient and Food Consumption Survey (MMFCS) finds that anemia is prevalent among children and women. The survey found that 35.6 of children aged 6-59 months and 51 percent of children 5-9 years of age are anemic, as well as 30 percent of both adolescent girls (age 10-14) and women of reproductive age (age 15 to 49) (ibid, 2019). While there are multiple factors that affect nutrition outcomes, one of the underlying causes of malnutrition is a lack of adequate food of sufficient nutritional quality (IFPRI, 2015). However, in every region of the world, the cost of protein- and micronutrient-dense foods, such as animal-source foods, fruits, and vegetables, are often considerably higher than the cost of energy-dense, staple foods such as cereals (Miller et al., 2016; Headey et al., 2018). While factors other than the cost of different foods may affect dietary choices and thus nutrition outcomes, relative food costs likely play an important role in household dietary choices, especially for poorer households. In recent years, the Government of Myanmar has made important commitments to reduce malnutrition in the country, including joining the Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) Movement in 2013, joining the UN Zero Hunger Challenge in 2014, and bringing a number of ministries together in 2018 to create a Multi-sectoral National Plan of Action on Nutrition (MS-NPAN) (GoM, 2018). One goal of this paper is to inform the MS-NPAN by providing empirical analysis of household dietary patterns and the cost and affordability of a nutritious diet in Myanmar. This paper builds on previous empirical work on dietary patterns in Myanmar, as well as a recent approach from a reinvigorated international literature on estimating the cost of a nutritious diet (Masters et al., 2018; Dizon and Herforth, 2018). In this study, we use the Cost of a Recommended Diet (CoRD) approach demonstrated by Dizon and Herforth (2018) and developed by Herforth et al. (2018). This approach estimates the cost of consuming a nutritious recommended diet as defined by a country’s food-based dietary guidelines (FBDG). Because the CoRD method uses only a few lowest-cost food items from each recommended food group to estimate the cost of acquiring a recommended diet, it likely underestimates this cost compared to the cost if local tastes and preferences are taken into account. In order to estimate the cost of consuming a recommended diet using a set of foods that reflect these preferences, we propose a modification to the CoRD method called the Food Preferences CoRD (CoRD-FP). The CoRD-FP method estimates the cost of a recommended diet using prices from a wider range of foods that reflect current food consumption patterns and preferences, as observed in household survey data. In this paper, we apply these methods to household food expenditure survey data from Myanmar (2010 and 2015) to demonstrate the utility of these methods for evaluating economic constraints on nutrition, and to characterize those constraints in the specific and complex setting of Myanmar. Our objectives are to: a) Analyze household food consumption patterns in Myanmar relative to local and international definitions of a recommended diet; b) Use the CoRD method to estimate regional minimum costs of a recommended diet in Myanmar; c) Develop and demonstrate the CoRD-FP method to better reflect consumer preferences; d) Assess the affordability of the CoRD and CoRD-FP relative to household food expenditure; and e) Investigate the key drivers of the costs of the recommended diet using both the CoRD basket of minimum-cost foods and the CoRD-FP basket of preferred foods. Our key findings are summarized below. We find that, relative to recommended diet guidelines, a majority of households in Myanmar considerably under-consume all food groups except staples. In 2015, only 38 percent of the population lived in households that consumed the recommended quantity of proteinrich foods, 38 percent fats and oils, 16 percent vegetables, 9 percent fruits, and less than one percent consumed the recommended quantity of dairy products. These consumption patterns also vary considerably by region. For example, 47 percent of those in the Delta agro-zone consume the recommended quantity of protein, compared to 28 percent in the Hills and Mountains agro-zone. With the exception of staples, consumption of each of the other five food groups increases considerably as total household expenditure increases. For example, only 8 percent of those in the poorest total household expenditure quintile consume the recommended quantity of proteindense foods compared to 66 percent of those in the wealthiest quintile. Yet, even mean consumption per adult equivalent (AE) for households in the highest quintile falls below the recommended diet quantities for dairy, vegetables and fruit. This implies that income is not the only constraint to consuming a nutritious diet. Consumption of the recommended number of servings of protein foods, vegetables, fruit, and fats increased from 2010 to 2015. This dietary shift is consistent with the 7.2 percent per year increase in Myanmar’s GDP per capita between 2010 and 2015 (World Bank, 2019). However, even with increases in consumption of non-staple foods, many individuals lived in households that overconsumed staples relative to the recommended quantity, yet significantly under-consumed each of the other five recommended diet food groups. The results above beg the question of why so many Myanmar households tend to over-consume staples and under-consume all non-staple food groups. While factors such as food preferences and nutritional knowledge affect household dietary choices, relative food costs also play an important role in these choices, especially for poorer households. Consistent with recent research from countries throughout South and Southeast Asia (Headey et al. (2018)), we find that prices per calorie of the most micronutrient-dense foods in Myanmar are considerably higher than those of staple foods such as rice, which are calorie-dense yet relatively low in micronutrients. These results suggest that a key factor leading many Myanmar households to vi over-consume staples such as rice and under-consume more nutrient-dense foods is their inability to afford the latter. For example, the price per calorie of chicken and pork are 24 and 8 times higher, respectively, than the price per calorie of rice, while the average for a number of fish and seafood items is 18 times higher. Likewise, other perishable foods like eggs, fresh milk, and certain fruits and vegetables have high prices per calorie relative to rice. Next, we estimate the CoRD for Myanmar, develop and estimate a modification to this method – the CoRD-FP – and also estimate the cost of meeting caloric needs based on the lowest cost staple food (CoCA). We find that the CoRD and CoRD-FP are 2.5 and 3.7 times more expensive, respectively, than the CoCA, at the national level. We also find that the CoRD-FP is 47 percent more expensive than the CoRD. This implies that meeting the recommended diet using foods that reflect observed food preferences (i.e. the CoRD-FP) costs more than doing so using a relatively small number of minimum-cost foods (CoRD). The CoRD-FP thus captures a “preference premium” – the additional cost of acquiring a recommended diet based on a set of foods that reflect preferences within each food group. Differences in the cost of the protein and vegetable food groups explain nearly all of the gap between the total cost of the CoRD-FP and the CoRD, at the national level. For example, the recommended diet quantity of protein foods costs 3.5 times more for the CoRD-FP than the CoRD, and accounts for about three-quarters of the preference premium. The reason for this is the cost of the CoRD-FP protein food group is based on a combination of meat (chicken, pork, and/or beef), fish, eggs, and legumes. By contrast, the CoRD is based almost entirely on legumes, which are considerably less expensive per serving than animal-source foods. In addition, the recommended diet quantity of vegetables costs 46 percent more for the CoRD-FP than the CoRD and accounts for about a fifth of the preference premium. Half of the population lives in a household that cannot afford the CoRD-FP relative to actual household food expenditure, and about one quarter cannot afford the CoRD. However, the affordability of CoRD and CoRD-FP improved compared to 2010, when 70 percent of the population lived in a household that could not afford the CoRD-FP and 32 percent could not afford the CoRD. This improvement is consistent with a 24 percent decline in the poverty headcount from 42 to 32 percent over the same time period (MOPF and World Bank 2017b). For households that cannot afford the estimated cost of the diet, the average deficiency in food expenditure relative to the CoRD or the CoRD-FP is 6 and 16 percent, respectively. There are three main policy implications from these results. First, our results suggest that Myanmar’s food security and agricultural policies should focus on diversification of farm enterprises through improvements in farm-level productivity and reductions in the marketing costs of protein- and micronutrient-dense foods, such as animal-source foods, vegetables and fruits. A focus on diversification will increase farm incomes and increase the availability and affordability of nutritious foods. For many decades, food security and agricultural policies in Myanmar have primarily focused on increasing national production levels of rice (Robertson et al., 2018). For example, in recent years up to an estimated 85 percent of the annual budget for the agricultural sector in Myanmar has focused on rice production (GoM, 2018). In addition, the Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank (MADB) provides larger loans for the production of rice relative to other crops (Robertson et al., 2018), although current rice-based vii farming systems generate significantly less income for smallholders compared to most other production systems, such as those based on beans, pulses, oilseeds, aquaculture, and a wide range of other smallholder cash crops (GoM, 2018). Likewise, in some contexts, modifications to land use legislation could facilitate farm diversification. For example, there is a need to reduce administrative and legal barriers to enable smallholders to convert paddy land into permanent high value enterprises like aquaculture or floriculture. Second, different regions have different levels of agro-ecological and market access potential for production of protein- and/or micronutrient-rich foods. This implies that region-specific strategies are needed to overcome supply side (availability and cost) and demand side (household incomes, particularly for poorer households) constraints to increased household consumption of protein and micronutrients. For example, the CoRD-FP is highest in the Hills and Mountains, followed by the Delta. However, strategies to reduce supply and demand-side constraints to improving the quality of diets in these two areas are likely to be quite different. For example, the types of high value agricultural enterprises that can generate additional income are quite different in hilly and mountainous states compared to the Delta. Finally, though the relatively high cost of many micronutrient-dense foods is a key constraint to consuming a nutritious diet, dietary preferences also play an important role. This point is clearly illustrated by consumption choices of households in the highest expenditure quintile. Though 88 percent of households in the highest expenditure quintile have household food expenditure levels sufficient to afford the CoRD-FP, only 19 and 36 percent of these households consume the recommended diet quantities of vegetables and fruits, respectively. This highlights the need for nutrition education to encourage increased consumption of nutrientdense foods. We find that consumption of the CoRD-FP food basket in Myanmar meets the average macronutrient needs for adult men and women and the requirements for most micronutrients. Most notably, the CoRD-FP food basket meets average nutrient requirements for protein, iron, and vitamins A and B1, nutrients which the government of Myanmar has identified as problem areas requiring targeted intervention (MoHS, 2019). This indicates that efforts to encourage the population of Myanmar to consume a recommended diet could significantly reduce the prevalence of health conditions resulting from insufficient nutrient intake, such as anemia in women and children. Thus, creation of national FBDG containing a recommended diet specific to Myanmar could be a powerful tool for increasing public awareness of ways to overcome known dietary shortfalls. Both greater use of the FBDG as well as development of a recommended diet specific to Myanmar (which includes recommended consumption quantities for various food groups) could help improve the effectiveness of nutrition policy. Efforts to promote consumption of a more nutritious diet would need to address both the economic constraints to eating more nutrient-dense yet relatively expensive protein foods, fruits and vegetables, as well as nutrition education and promotion of healthy diets.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2019–06–30
  2. By: Hambulo Ngoma; Byman Hamududu; Peter Hangoma; Paul Samboko; Munguzwe Hichaambwa; Chance Kabaghe
    Abstract: Irrigation is increasingly seen as a necessary means to build resilience in smallholder rain-fed farming systems and to increase productivity to meet growing food demands in Sub-Saharan Africa. Irrigation was important in the Asian Green Revolution. Abundant surface and ground water and the under-exploited irrigation potentials offer real prospects for expanding irrigation in several SubSaharan African countries, Zambia inclusive. However, there are still several gaps—the known unknowns: what irrigation models work and are suitable for smallholder farmers in the context of climate change? What irrigation models are preferred and why? What are the likely impacts of climate change on water availability and what are the long-term implications for irrigation development? This study contributes towards filling these gaps. First, it assesses what smallholder irrigation models are present in Zambia and their performance. Second, it analyses the prevalence of irrigation use among smallholder farmers, what drives its use and the impacts and implications of current and projected climate change on water resource availability in the country. Combining qualitative field interviews, econometric and hydrological modelling, the main results suggest that public-private partnership and privately managed irrigation schemes are better models for smallholder irrigation schemes provided that farmers retain a sense of ownership of the scheme, have good governance structures and are well organized into collective production and marketing units with production financing and forward supply contract arrangements. While community-based schemes have the potential, they are usually too small and farmers are often poorly organized to get into formalized collective production and marketing arrangements. Public-private partnerships such as the three-tier model (combining a large-scale farm to supply water and provide market to medium- and small-scale farmers) hold potential, but it is still too soon to evaluate them. Albeit successful, outgrowing arrangements under private irrigation schemes create winners and losers, as they often entail significant changes to the ways land, livelihoods, and social relations are configured. Informal irrigation for fruits and vegetables is more prevalent at 18% use rate than for field crops (ca.1%) among smallholder farmers in Zambia. The majority of the irrigated fields are located close to water sources (Dambos/wetlands) and manual bucket irrigation is the most prevalent irrigation technology used by more than 80% of smallholder farmers. In addition to proximity to water sources, access to credit, labour availability, secure land tenure and income are strong drivers for irrigation use among smallholder farmers. With climate projections suggesting that Zambia will become hotter and drier, and the southern, western and eastern regions much more affected compared to the northern region, water scarcity can only worsen. Reduced rainfall and a hotter climate coupled with increased demand for water resources will require smallholder irrigators to adapt in some ways. Water scarcity will increasingly make it difficult for irrigators to rely on Dambos/wetlands. How exactly the irrigators will adapt largely depends on their location in the country, proximity to water sources, resilience and adaptive capacity, inter alia. Based on the main results, we draw the following implications on smallholder irrigation development in Zambia: Current and future smallholder irrigation schemes will need to adopt more water efficient technologies such as overhead and drip irrigation systems as opposed to the prevalent surface irrigation methods. It is vital to understand the cost implications and feasibility of such a switch to more water efficient technologies. Governance and institutional arrangements of smallholder irrigation schemes will need strengthening to facilitate collective production and marketing arrangements. Reduced water availability will increase access and irrigation costs, which in turn may reduce its profitability among smallholder farmers as they tend to have limited capital and capacity to adapt to higher cost structures. In this vein, improved access to credit facilities and markets will be required. Competition for the reduced available water resources will disadvantage the smallholder farmers. Policies to protect them against the large-scale users are required. This may entail strengthening the management, regulation, and monitoring of water use by ensuring that water user rights and fees become mandatory and are enforced, and the process of acquiring water rights transparent. Activities of Water Management Authorities require strengthening.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–08–21
  3. By: Hambulo Ngoma; Arild Angelsen; Thomas S. Jayne; Antony Chapoto
    Abstract: Conservation Agriculture (CA) aims to concurrently promote agricultural productivity, climate resilience and other environmental objectives related to sustainability. The evidence base for CA and other practices of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) in Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming better established. We review this evidence to address whether CA meets CSA objectives and why adoption rates by smallholders remain generally very low. As part of the review, we develop hypotheses for expected CA adoption under different socioeconomic and agro-ecological conditions, and consider promising options for enabling CA to better contribute to the CSA objectives. Our results are largely in agreement with the nascent literature where CA is found to contribute positively to CSA productivity and adaptation/resilience objectives, although the degree of success varies considerably by regional, farm and household characteristics. The evidence is equivocal on the potential for CA to enhance soil carbon sequestration and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, we find that capital-intensive (mechanized) CA is more likely to be adopted in areas of economic dynamism where capital is cheap relative to labor. Labor-intensive CA practices are more likely to be adopted in regions of economic stagnation where capital is expensive and labor is abundant and cheap. The climate-smartness of CA can be enhanced in a number of ways: reframing and adapting CA to location-specific economic and biophysical conditions, integrating CA with other CSA practices such as agroforestry, and by increasing the use of complementary productivityenhancing inputs such as inorganic fertilizers and organic manure. Other options to make CA climate-smart include conditional subsidies, market and value chain development to improve farmers’ access to CSA-promoting inputs, linking CA to payments for environmental service schemes (e.g., carbon credits), greater and more effective public spending on research and development to build evidence on the adaptation and mitigation potential of CA, and an improved enabling policy environment for private investment in input and farm commodity markets.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–05–22
  4. By: Hiroyuki Takeshima
    Abstract: Despite economic transformations and urbanization, declining shares of the workforce employed in the agricultural sector, and gradual growth of agricultural mechanization, production costs in the agricultural sector and food prices remain high in Nigeria relative to those in some of the other developing countries. Understanding how the adoption of mechanical technologies is related to agricultural productivity is therefore important for countries like Nigeria. Using farm household data from northern Nigeria as well as various spatial agroclimatic data, this study shows that the adoption of key mechanical technologies in Nigerian agriculture (animal traction, tractors, or both) has been high in areas that are more agroclimatically similar to the locations of agricultural research and development (R&D) stations, and this effect is heterogeneous, being particularly strong among relatively larger farms. Furthermore, such effects are likely to have been driven by the rise in returns on scale in the underlying production function caused by the adoption of these mechanical technologies. Agricultural mechanization, represented here as the switch from manual labor to animal traction and tractors, has been not only raising the average return on scale but also potentially magnifying the effects of productivity-enhancing public-sector R&D on spatial variations in agricultural productivity in countries like Nigeria.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–02–28
  5. By: Manon Authelet (Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Gembloux] - Université de Liège); Julie Subervie (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Patrick Meyfroidt (ELI - Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain); Niguel Asquith (John F. Kennedy School of Government - Harvard University [Cambridge]); Driss Ezzine-de Blas (Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)
    Abstract: The effectiveness of incentive-based conservation programs depends on how they influence and interact with multiple motivations of the participants. Here, we studied an incentive-based program for forest conservation in Bolivia – called "Reciprocal Water Agreements" – that mixes material compensations with pro-social and pro-environmental motivations as a way to reduce crowding-out of intrinsic motivations and to increase participation. Based on a sample of 424 households who were offered the program, we analysed econometrically the households' characteristics that influenced (i) the probability of participation in the program, (ii) the intensity of the participation, measured as the area allocated in the agreement, and (iii) the modality of participation, measured as the probability of participation in the different types of agreements. We found that economic factors favoured participation of better-off households owning property titles, more forested land with lower conservation opportunity cost, more agricultural tools and access to off-farm income. In addition, both pro-social factors – a deeper or older integration into social networks, and greater compliance to social norms of reciprocity, but also weaker institutional trust – as well as pro-environmental factors – including awareness of environmental problems, greater knowledge about solutions to environmental problems and a perceived positive balance of gains and losses in ecosystem services – also influenced positively the probability of participation and the area involved in the program. Finally, we found that participation into more restrictive agreements was enabled by a stronger sense of individual responsibility towards environmental problems and a weaker perceived control over environmental behaviours. Our results highlight the factors that could increase uptake and factors on which the program might focus in order to have a greater impact on pro-environmental behaviours. They also suggest that incentive-based program can be designed to take advantage of pro-social and pro-environmental motivations as strongly as of economic ones.
    Keywords: Motivations,participation,incentive-based conservation program,forest conservation,South America,Bolivia.
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Yénizié Koné; Véronique Thériault; Alpha Kergna; Melinda Smale
    Abstract: The present research aims to trace the main historical references for agricultural subsidies, including fertilizers, in Mali. It gives an overview of the major historical dates that have influenced the use of fertilizer subsidies, to capitalize learnings and lessons learned from past experiences to improve current practices. The methodological approach is based on a review of the literature, use of available secondary data and interviews with key individuals who have worked on fertilizer use and distribution in Mali. The analysis of the results shows that the fertilizer subsidy has always been an integral part of the agricultural development strategies of the successive governments of the Republic of Mali from 1960 to 2019. Regardless of the adopted economic system (socialist or liberal) and the vicissitudes of history, the practice of fertilizer subsidies has never disappeared from the financing strategies of agriculture in Mali. In general, fertilizer subsidies have been perpetuated over time, sometimes reducing the constraints imposed by donors. Moreover, they have recently been justified by the need, on the one hand, to encourage the use of fertilizers to increase agricultural production and productivity in order to ensure food security and to protect farmers against the volatility of fertilizer prices, the adverse effects of droughts on crops and incomes, on the other hand. Thus, in the early years of independence, under the prevailing socialist economic system, large, uncontrolled fertilizer subsidies were allocated to rural development operations (ODRs). Their mismanagement has led to unsustainable debt for the state without a real impact on the living conditions of the people. For this reason, as part of structural adjustment policies, fertilizer subsidies have been discouraged or even eliminated for most agricultural sectors. But in the wake of the global food and nutrition crisis of 2007, they were rehabilitated and then put back on track to increase agricultural production and productivity. Currently, the fertilizer subsidy program implemented through paper and electronic technical delivery systems is becoming increasingly controlled to ensure traceability and transparency. However, the cost of this fertilizer subsidy program is increasing and the impact on beneficiary populations remains mixed. Hence the need to reconcile fertilizer subsidies with sustainable investment needs in agriculture, including through public investment (e.g., research and development, extension services and irrigation infrastructure).
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–08–15
  7. By: Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Lamonaca, Emilia; Tappi, Marco; Di Gioia, Leonardo
    Abstract: The livestock sector has a large influence on direct and indirect (via land use change) greenhouse gas emissions, with potential negative impacts on climate change. We quantify the environmental impacts related to the introduction of a voluntary animal-based policy supported by the European Union (EU), the Measure 14 of Rural Development Programmes 2014-2020 on animal welfare. We focus on methane and nitrous oxide emissions (direct impacts), and on carbon-based and nitrous oxide emissions from land use change (indirect impacts). Our case study is the dairy sector of the EU Member States. We found that the animal-based measures have (on average) limited environmental impacts, although marked differences exist across Member States.
    Keywords: Animal welfare; Emission; EU policy; Livestock; Rural development.
    JEL: Q18 Q51 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Jane Kabubo-Mariara. (Department of Economics University of Nairobi)
    Abstract: Land conservation technologies are known to play an important role in improving farm incomes. For this reason substantial investments have been made in research to improve agricultural technologies in various parts of the world, from the development of new crop varieties to new practices of land management. The present study responds to the paucity of literature on determinants of land conservation practices in Kenya. The study builds on the few existing studies in this area and explores the impact of land rights and assets among other factors on adoption of soil conservation practices. The study further tests for Boserup’s hypothesis and the evolutionary theory of land rights using both descriptive and econometric procedures. Primary data from households in a semi-arid district in Kenya are used to achieve the study objectives. Random effects probits are used to derive the parametric estimates of our models. The findings are that property right regimes and assets affect both the decision to conserve land and the type of conservation practices used by farmers. The results further suggest a positive correlation between land tenure security and population density, thus supporting Boserup’s hypothesis as well as the evolutionary land rights theory. We also find that the poor are less likely to adopt land conservation practices than the non-poor. Education, available biomass, market development and location of the farm are also found to be important determinants of adoption. These findings call for pursuit of both short-term and long-term policy measures that offer incentives for land conservation through government initiatives and involvement of local communities. The recommended policy measures include enhanced security of tenure, targeted programmes for poverty alleviation, improved access to education, and development of social and physical infrastructure.
  9. By: Hosaena Ghebru; Fikirte Girmachew
    Abstract: Despite growing consensus on the socio-economic benefits emanating from enhanced land tenure security, issues related to how best to measure it and what constitute universal indicators of tenure (in)security are poorly understood. As a result, issues of what drives tenure security are poorly understood and inconclusive. This study, thus, examines the drivers of perceived tenure insecurity in Nigeria using the Nigeria LSMS-Panel General Household Survey of 2012/13. The determinants of perceive tenure insecurity are assessed across two indicators: private (idiosyncratic) tenure risk and collective (covariate) tenure security risk. The analysis shows that perceived risks of private land dispute are higher for female-headed households, households with lower social/political connectedness, and for land parcels acquired via the traditional/customary system, in contrast to having been purchased. Private tenure risk/insecurity is also higher in communities with vibrant land market and for households that are located close to urban centers, while the opposite is the case in communities with relative ease of land access. On the other hand, collective tenure risk is lower in communities with improved economic status. Finally, signifying the need to account for intra-household dimensions in implementing land reform interventions, results from a more disaggregated analysis show that tenure security is relatively higher on female-managed plots of female-headed households, while the opposite is the case for female-managed plots of male-headed households.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–02–25
  10. By: Hosaena Ghebru; Mulubrhan Amare; George Mavrotas; Adebayo Ogunniyi
    Abstract: The paper examines the role of land access in youth migration and employment decisions using a two wave panel data set from the Living Standards Measurement Study—Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) from Nigeria. Overall, the findings show that the size of expected land inheritance is significantly and negatively associated with long distance migration and migration to urban areas, while a similar impact is negligible when a broader definition of migration is adopted and when migration is deemed as temporary. A more disaggregated analysis by considering individual characteristics of the youth shows that results are more elastic for older youth and those that are less educated, while we find no difference when comparisons are made by gender. Similar analysis on the influence of land access on youth employment choices shows strong evidence that the larger the size of the expected land inheritance the lower the likelihood of the youth being involved in non-agricultural activities and a higher chance of staying in agriculture or the dual sector. The results further reveal that youth in areas with a high level of agricultural commercialization and modernization seem to be more responsive to land access considerations in making migration and employment decisions than are youth residing in less commercialized areas. Finally, the results from the differential analysis suggest that rural-to-urban migration and the likelihood of youth involvement in the dual economy is more responsive to the size of the expected land inheritance for less educated youth as compared to more educated ones.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–02–27
  11. By: Byman H. Hamududu; Hambulo Ngoma
    Abstract: Water resources are important for current and future socioeconomic development of any country. To manage water resources sustainably requires a good understanding of the current and future availability of these resources at local level: how much water is available, where is it available and when? This paper assesses the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and the impacts of projected climate change on water resource availability, and draws implications for irrigation development in Zambia. Unlike past studies done at national level, this study is at river basin level. Using a water balance model in a hydrological modeling framework and statistical downscaling of future climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the paper simulates the impacts of climate change on water availability in Zambia’s main river basins from current periods until the end of the century in 2100. The main results indicate that temperature increases in Zambia are projected to reach 1.9o C and 2.3o C by 2050 and 2100, respectively. Rainfall is projected to decrease by about 3% by mid-century and only marginally by about 0.6% towards the end of the century across the country. However, there are large differences across the different regions, with the southern, western and eastern regions projected to be much more affected compared to the northern region. These changes in rainfall and temperature will reduce water availability by about 13% from current (observed) levels of about 97 km3 to about 84 km3 by the end of the century at national level. At the river basin level, the northern basins are likely to stay the same or experience slight increases in water resources compared to those in the southern and western parts of Zambia. In particular, Zambezi, Kafue, and Luangwa River Basins are projected to have less water resources available due to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures . These findings have implications for smallholder irrigation development in Zambia. First, this implies that contingent on costs, current and future irrigation schemes will need to adopt more water efficient technologies such as overhead irrigation systems (e.g., center pivots and drip irrigation) as opposed to the prevalent surface irrigation methods. Second, reduced water availability will increase access and irrigation costs, which in turn may reduce its profitability among smallholder farmers as they tend to have limited capital and capacity to adapt to higher cost structures. Third, competition for the reduced available water resources will disadvantage the smallholder farmers. Policies to protect them against the large scale users are required. Options for bulky water transfer from low-demand, high-water areas in the north to the high-demand, low-water areas in the south should be explored. Fourth, water resources management and regulation need to be strengthened, for example by ensuring that water user rights and fees become mandatory, even among smallholder farmers. There is also need to improve rain water harvesting and storage by investing in more efficient reservoirs. How these reservoirs should be managed to ensure equitable access to water resources and to reduce water loss due evapotranspiration requires further thought.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–08–28
  12. By: Jenna Swarthout; Pavani K. Ram; Charles D. Arnold; Holly N. Dentz; Benjamin F. Arnold; Stephen Kalungu; Audrie Lin; Sammy M. Njenga; Christine P. Stewart; John M. Colford Jr.; Clair Null; Amy J. Pickering
    Abstract: Poor nutrition and hand hygiene are risk factors for acute respiratory infections (ARIs). Safe drinking water and sanitation can reduce exposure to pathogens and encourage healthy immune responses, reducing the risk of ARIs.
    Keywords: water sanitation, handwashing, nutrition, child respiratory infections, rural Kenya, RCT
  13. By: Hambulo Ngoma; Amare Teklay Hailu; Stephen Kabwe; Arild Angelsen
    Abstract: Forests are important havens for biodiversity. If left standing, they sequester and store carbon, and thereby help mitigate climate change. Forests supplement household incomes for a large share of rural people, perform a myriad of other ecosystem functions and contribute to national incomes. Yet forests are overexploited and degrading, threatening the products and services they supply. Sustainable use and conservation of forests is, therefore, high on national policy agendas, but it is less clear how to do so effectively and efficiently. We conducted framed field experiments (FFEs) to test, ex-ante, the impact of three possible policies for forest conservation in Zambia: community forest management (CFM), command and control (CAC), and payments for environmental services (PES). The experiments were designed to mimic how local dwellers use forests in real life. A random sample of 191 forest users drawn from four villages in Mpika and Serenje districts, the actual localities where they make forest use decisions participated in the experiments, using actual tree branches as the commodity in the task of harvesting trees. A total of 24 groups, each with eight participants played the experiments and made harvest decisions for 10 rounds. Relative to open access, PES to individuals reduced harvest by 18 percentage points while each of CAC and CFM reduced harvest rates by 6 percentage points. Communication in the CFM treatment improved cooperation and to some extent ignited non-pecuniary, prosocial and other – regarding choices among our participants. The large effects of individual pay underscores the merit in paying forest users through incentive-based schemes, provided the transaction costs of such individual payments can be kept at a reasonably low level. Free and easy-riding and uncertainty on how others will respond dampens the positive effects of group pay for forest conservation, as do externally imposed sanctions in CAC. We conclude that individual pay performs better than group pay for forest conservation. Optimal forest conservation outcomes might, however, be achieved by some combinations of CFM and individual PES. Clarifying benefit sharing mechanisms in Zambia’s community forest management and taking into account individuals’ non-pecuniary motives will be important to achieve win-win outcomes for conservation and livelihoods.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–08–26
  14. By: Sudha Narayanan (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Shree Saha (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)
    Abstract: On March 24, 2020, the Government of India announced a 21-day national lockdown that has since been extended to May 3, 2020. The lockdown has left urban food markets in disarray with severe supply bottlenecks and restrictions on doing business. At a time when food prices in India were declining consistently, supply disruptions consequent to the lockdown have reversed the trend. Based on an analysis of publicly available data on wholesale and retail prices for 22 commodities from 114 Centres, we find that prices have increased since the lockdown and show no signs of reverting to the pre-lockdown levels as of April 21, 2020. Average price increases are to the tune of over 6 for several pulses, over 3.5 for most edible oils, 15 for potato 28 for tomato in the 28 days post- lockdown compared to prices during the month preceding the lockdown. We also find that smaller cities have seen a much higher increase in prices with at least a few cities seeing a rise in retail food prices by as much as 20. A survey of 50 food retailers in 14 cities reveal serious operational challenges associated with sourcing supplies, transportation and police harassment. At the same time, several innovative arrangements have evolved as well. The paper reviews these briefly and outlines some policy concerns.
    Keywords: urban food system, retail, wholesale, prices, agrifood supply chain, India
    JEL: D12 E31 Q11
    Date: 2020–04
  15. By: Henry Machina; Hambulo Ngoma; Auckland N. Kuteya
    Abstract: Smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa face several challenges including low productivity, food insecurity and low agricultural diversification, which contribute to high poverty. To address these challenges, governments in the region have been implementing agricultural subsidy programs to raise productivity and promote household food security, among other things. The subsidy programs have been associated with some positive impacts on productivity but not so much on stimulating overall agricultural growth and poverty reduction. In some instances, subsidies have been found to crowd out demand for commercial fertilizer. However, there is a dearth of empirical evidence on whether subsidies can reduce the gendered productivity gaps in agriculture. This paper contributes towards filling this gap. In particular, we assess the gendered impacts of receiving FISP on productivity and assess whether these impacts are heterogeneous between female- and malemanaged plots. Unlike past studies done at household level, our analysis is at the plot level and distinguishes between male- and female-managed plots. We applied panel data methods to the two-wave Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Surveys data collected in 2012 and 2015. The study highlights several findings as follows: First, there were several notable differences in the main variables between female-managed and male-managed plots. The main outcome variable—the measure for agricultural productivity—yield, averaged about 1,400kg /ha. Male-managed plots had a 34kg/ha yield advantage over femalemanaged plots. These results are suggestive of gendered productivity gaps. Second, there were many differences in plot-specific characteristics. Male-managed plots were on average larger than female managed plots and male household heads managed more plots than female heads. A larger proportion of female-mangers accessed more FISP and commercial fertilizers, and consequently used more basal and top dressing fertilizers than their male counterparts. The male-managers, however, used more seed. Despite the almost equal access to credit, female-managers accessed larger amounts than their male counterparts among those that accessed credit. Finally, male-plot managers were on average more educated, younger, wealthier and had more social capital more than their female counterparts. Third, the main empirical results suggest that access to FISP does not disproportionately raise crop productivity for female-managed plots. This implies that FISP alone is not sufficient to address the gendered productivity gaps in agriculture. These results should not be understood to suggest that FISP is bad per se, but rather that FISP is insufficient to address the male-female productivity gaps. Access to FISP is associated with an average yield gain of 0.8% regardless of the gender of the plot manager. As a way forward, the government and other stakeholders involved in promotion of FISP need to promote a more gender sensitive program that targets more female headed households to promote gender equality. There is also need to address the social-cultural norms that tip the balance of power dynamics, rights and entitlements towards men. This can be done through educational and sensitizations activities.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–08–07
  16. By: Hosaena Ghebru; Fikirte Girmachew
    Abstract: This study examines the drivers of tenure insecurity in Mozambique using data from the National Agricultural Survey (TIA) 2014 as well as a follow-up supplemental survey with detailed land tenure gender-disaggregated data from three groups: namely, principal male, principal female, and female spouses. Perceived risk of land loss (collective tenure risk) and perceived risk of a private land dispute (individual tenure risk) are used to measure land tenure insecurity. The empirical findings reveal, overall, collective tenure risks are the real threat to women’s tenure security while individual tenure risks (ownership, inheritance, border disputes, etc.) are more of a threat to the tenure security of men. However, a more gender-disaggregated analysis reveals that individual tenure risk is higher among female spouses as compared to male heads within the same household. Moreover, perceived risk of land loss is higher among non-indigenous male heads while female spouses who have no control over family land are more likely to have higher perceived tenure insecurity. Results also show that landrelated legal awareness seems to be more significant in dictating the (positively) perceived tenure security of women as compared to their male counterparts. Generally, tenure insecurity for female spouses seem to be associated with the emergence of land markets while relative land scarcity in a given community dictates tenure insecurity of the principal female (female heads). Hence, the empirical findings reinforce the need to complement ongoing efforts to enhance tenure security at the household and community level with gender-tailored/targeted programs that take into account the intra-household dimension of addressing issues of land tenure security.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–02–26
  17. By: Bachev, Hrabrin
    Abstract: The goal of this paper is to access the state, specify trends, compare with other EU states, and identify intervention needs of Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation System (AKIS) in Bulgaria, and assist policy formation for the next programing period. Modern scientific approaches of SWOT, Strategic Orientation, Gap Analysis, Comparative Institutional Analysis, etc. are used to identify actors and relations, trends in development, assess Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats, formulate adequate strategy, and specify overall and public intervention needs of AKIS in the country. Bulgarian AKIS demonstrates low resource endowment and efficiency, domination of outdated public institutions and undeveloped private sector, insufficient sharing of knowledge and innovations, slow and uneven application of modern technologies, varieties, production and management methods, digitalization, etc. in different type of farms, subsectors of agriculture and regions of the country. The list of specified AKIS needs is provided to government for taking a political decision about appropriate measures for public intervention. This study demonstrates that preparation of country’s RDP is (has to be) based of comprehensive scientific approach while research community proves that it can contribute to solving an important academic and practical problem.
    Keywords: knowledge, innovation, agriculture, strategy, AKIS, EU CAP, Bulgaria
    JEL: Q0 Q01 Q1 Q10 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q18
    Date: 2020–01
  18. By: Fontes, Francisco; Gorst, Ashley; Palmer, Charles
    Abstract: Drought events have critical impacts on agricultural production yet there is little consensus on how these should be measured and defined, with implications for drought research and policy. We develop a flexible rainfall-temperature drought index that captures all dry events and we classify these as Type 1 (above-average cooling degree days) and Type 2 droughts (below-average cooling degree days). Applied to a panel dataset of Indian districts over 1966-2009, Type 2 droughts are found to have negative marginal impacts comparable to those of Type 1 droughts. Irrigation more effectively reduces Type 2 drought-induced yield losses than Type 1 yield losses. Over time, Type 1 drought losses have declined while Type 2 losses have risen. Estimates of average yield losses due to Type 1 droughts are reduced by up to 27 per cent when Type 2 droughts are omitted. The associated ex-post economic costs in terms of rice production are underestimated by up to 124 per cent.
    Keywords: agriculture; rice; climate; drought; India; rainfall; temperature; ES/K006576/1
    JEL: Q10 Q19 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2020–04–03
  19. By: Hiroyuki Takeshima; Abdullahi Mohammed Nasir
    Abstract: Despite the importance of location-specific adaptive crop breeding research, past reforms of breeding systems in Nigeria have focused more on centralizing the breeding activities into fewer locations. This has been based partly on the premise that such research systems can still effectively meet the need for a diverse set of varietal technologies that are suitable for different agroecological conditions through the use of numerous outstations and multilocational trials, regardless of the locations of the headquarters or the outstations where breeders are located. However, little empirical evidence exists to support this premise. Using panel data for agricultural households in northern Nigeria, as well as spatial data on agroecological factors, this study fills this knowledge gap. Specifically, it empirically shows that agricultural productivity and technical efficiency at farm household level is significantly and positively affected by similarity between the agroecological conditions of the locations of these households and where major crop breeding institutes are headquartered in Nigeria, namely Maiduguri, Kano, Zaria, Badeggi, Ibadan, and Umudike, after controlling for the agroecological conditions and various relevant household characteristics of these households. These findings suggest that where improved varieties are developed or evaluated affects agricultural productivity and technical efficiency in different locations. Overall agricultural productivity in Nigeria can be significantly increased not simply by increasing support for public sector varietal development, but by doing so in a manner that increases the similarity in agroecological conditions between areas where crop breeding is conducted and the areas where farm households produce those crops.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–02–24
  20. By: Hu, Weinian
    Abstract: China is the EU’s second biggest agri-food exports market. It is also the second destination for the export of EU products protected by geographical indications (GI), accounting for 9% of its value, including wines, agri-food and spirits. The EU-China Agreement on the Protection of Geographical Indications, concluded in November 2019, is expected to realise higher potential for exporting EU GIs to the country since market access is now guaranteed. But the US-China Economic and Trade Agreement, signed in January 2020, has set down a couple of precautionary measures, including a consultation mechanism with China before new GIs can be recognised for protection in the Chinese market because of international trade agreements. As a result, EU GIs could be brought under tighter US scrutiny before being recognised for protection in China. Analysis reveals, however, that only a handful of EU GIs may be affected by the latter Agreement, if at all.
    Date: 2020–04
  21. By: Thelma Namonje-Kapembwa; Harrison Chiwawa; Nicholas Sitko
    Abstract: Zambia’s livestock sector plays a pivotal role in the socio-economic development of both the rural and urban population. Smallholder farmers, for the most part, dominate the sector, and at the household level, its role goes beyond the provision of food and nutrition in people’s diets, to act as a risk buffer by providing an alternative source of income in case of crop failure. Though the small animals perform a wide range of economic and social functions, low productivity among the smallholder livestock farmers is still of concern in Zambia’s livestock sector. Goats are the second most popular owned livestock by most smallholder farmers in Zambia. Their ability to utilize a broad range of feed resources and adapt to marginal conditions presents an opportunity for income generation among the poor rural households. Further, with the prevailing farm structures and increasing land constraints in Zambia, opportunities for income generation from field crops is limited. Small livestock rearing is, therefore, suited for the rural farm households to invest in and take advantage of the rapid increase in income and population growth. However, despite these opportunities, the small livestock sector is still underdeveloped and lacks a clear government policy to guide it. Further, the small livestock sector is characterized by the limited supply of both goat meat in the formal markets such as well-established supermarkets and butcheries. The study is motivated by the desire to address the following research questions: What factors influence producers’ choice on whether to use the formal or informal marketing channels for goats and what factors influence their marketing behavior? What socio-economic characteristics affect the herd size of goats among smallholder farmers and how can they improve it? To address these questions, we used a value chain analysis approach to gain an understanding of the factors surrounding the marketing of small livestock. Using primary qualitative data from eight selected districts in Southern, Western, Central, Eastern, and Lusaka provinces in Zambia and supplemented by nationally representative household survey data, this study analyzed the value chains of goats and highlights the factors surrounding the production and marketing of small livestock. The small livestock sector is faced with some challenges ranging from cultural related issues, management issues, and access to the necessary services. The following are the main findings from this study. The analysis of the gross margin suggests that commercialization of goats yields positive net income, however, the magnitude of the margins accrued to the producer is lower than other actors in the value chains. Small livestock are assets easy to sell for cash and as such, many of the sales are triggered by the need to support family expenses rather than as a business initiative. It was observed that a majority of the households that participate in the marketing of goats are those with a bigger flock. Since small livestock are productive assets that generate future income, livestock marketing by smallholder households respond mainly to demands for cash needs rather than short-term profit making. Building and maintaining the herd size is, therefore, of great importance to the smallholder farmers and affects their marketing decisions. Production of goats is affected by high disease incidences and mortality rates. This has adverse effects on the herd sizes and limits the farmer's ability to participate in livestock markets. Analysis of the factors that influence herd size shows that off-farm income, landholding size, the age of the household head, and good management practices have a positive bearing on the size of the flock. Management of small livestock is often under the semi-intensive system with little to no supplementary feeding. Regarding management, most farmers put more emphasis on cattle compared to the small livestock. This is because there is a general perception that small animals requires minimal management and cattle are significantly more valuable both culturally and economically. The limited knowledge of management practices by smallholder farmers is primarily attributable to no access to extension services from the veterinary officers. Therefore, knowledge dissemination through extension and training must be promoted to improve small livestock production. The marketing channel for goats is over 80% informal; this affects the prices that farmers receive. Further, the results from the probit regression analysis show that the choice of which marketing channel to use is influenced by the herd size of the animals, and the gender of the decision maker as well as the geographical location. It was observed that households with big herd sizes were more likely to sell to traders as opposed to selling to individual households. The choice of the marketing channel used by the farmer has a bearing on the price received and the gross margins. Farmers complained about the low prices that are offered by small-scale traders, and this discourages some of the farmers from selling their animals. There is no standardized pricing―in most cases the size of the goat determines the prices. These factors, therefore, limit the farmers’ ability to invest and expand their livestock production. To address some of the challenges in the small livestock production and marketing, the study recommends the following actions: To address the problem of disease incidences, the government should introduce sanitary mandates. Sanitary mandates entail contractual arrangements where the state contracts the private sector to implement certain animal health services that are carried out in the national interest, usually at the cost to the state. This can be revised to mean assistance from other stakeholders in the development of the livestock value chain. These mandates could establish an income base enabling the establishment of private practicing in the areas of extensive husbandry systems, which would not normally support such an enterprise Extension and community participation; most smallholder farmers cling to the old paternalistic approach to veterinary services whereby the state made most disease control decisions and implemented them at no cost to the beneficiary. However, this approach can no longer be sustained. Therefore, communities need to take on these responsibilities themselves. There is a need for communities to appreciate their responsibilities in disease control. This could include the necessity of locally enforceable legislation through the local authorities and traditional leadership. Accordingly, extensive publicity/extension campaigns need to be undertaken to inform and explain to the communities of the need for their involvement in the preparation of alternate provision of animal health services One of the factors that have been highlighted in literature, which affects the choice of the marketing channel, is the issue of high transactional costs. One way of minimizing vi transaction costs is for smallholder farmers to form livestock marketing groups. By pooling resources together, it has the potential for small livestock producers to increase their participation in formal markets and increase access to information To encourage entrepreneurs to pursue value addition activities such as processing, pasture production, and others, the government, through related agencies, must partner with private firms/institutions in the facilitation of the development of facilities currently deemed expensive and unattractive to the entrepreneur in remote areas to lure individuals to participate in the markets. Using the Chibolya market model, the government would initially own the facilities but lease out operations to individuals or groups of individuals who shall run the facility at competitive market rates. These must be established in selected districts with production potential. Government and the private sector should establish more abattoirs and slaughter slabs in selected districts especially those with a high population of livestock. The abattoirs should not be product specific but be able to handle all types of livestock that are owned by farmers. These should be regularly be inspected by the veterinary department and health inspectors, as these facilities can be a source of health concerns if sanitary conditions are not adhered to by producers and traders. There is need to establish more breeding centers for small livestock to help increase herd sizes and encourage farmers to participate in the marketing of goats. Grants must be made available to selected individuals or institutions to create and manage breeding centers and programs on behalf of the people or government.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–07–30
  22. By: Melinda Smale; Veronique Theriault; Ryan Vroegindewey
    Abstract: As other West African countries, Mali, is experiencing changes in its lifestyle and diets driven, in part, by urbanization and income growth. We bring new empirical evidence on whether diets in Mali are shifting toward more highly processed foods, with greater shares of food purchased away from home, more sugars and/or potentially obesogenic foods. Specifically, we examine, at a macro-scale, the distribution of consumption across food groups and processing content and analyze whether the distribution varies across urban and rural areas. At a micro-scale, we investigate the extent to which women’s diets meet minimum adequate standards, contain key sources of micronutrients, and include elements such as fats, sugars, and food purchased away from home. We utilize the 2014/15 LSMS/ISA dataset and 2018/19 PREPOSAM dataset. Our findings show that the food budget share allocated to processed foods is greater in urban (60%) than rural area (48%). Consumption of highly processed and sugary foods is relatively low in both urban (15%) and rural (7%) areas. Urban households have a higher diversity score than rural households. Both individual and household diet diversity are subject to seasonality, regardless of their areas of residency. About half of farm women do not meet the minimum adequate dietary diversity during the lean season. Achieving food and nutrition security requires investing in agro-processing and food markets to ensure the provision of affordable, diversified, and healthy foods all year round in both urban and rural areas.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–09–02
  23. By: Eric Abaidoo; Ben Belton
    Abstract: The report presents analysis of data from a survey of the 37 agricultural supply businesses in Shan State, Myanmar. The patterns reported are broadly consistent with the rapid growth of agricultural machinery supply businesses in Myanmar’s Dry Zone and Delta, and with demand side surveys of agricultural machinery use in Shan. The following points stand out: The growth and spread of machinery suppliers over the past decade has been dramatic. The total number of machinery supply outlets nationally jumped 338% from 2008 to 2018, from 72 to 315, while the number of townships served by machinery dealerships increased from 36 to 88 A total of 44 machinery supply businesses are operational in Shan, accounting for 19% of the national total in 2018. Three-quarters of all machinery supply enterprises currently operating in Shan were established after 2010. Growth in business numbers accelerated particularly rapidly from 2012 to 2016, but slowed somewhat in 2017-2018. The variety of machinery supplied by these businesses has diversified rapidly since 2012. Engines, two-wheel tractors, and trawlerji are the best selling items. Total annual sales of these items remained fairly constant from 2014 to 2018. The number of businesses selling machinery jumped 76% over this period, suggesting that new entrants have secured a diminishing market share. Sales growth in recent years has been driven by larger machines. Annual sales of four-wheel tractors jumped from 53 to 463 (an increase of 773%) while annual sales of combine harvesters climbed from zero to thirty. Combine harvester sales started later in Shan than in the Delta and or Dry Zone, beginning in 2016. Access to hire purchase loans for machinery is less widespread in Shan than in the Dry Zone. Two-thirds of machinery suppliers in Shan offer some form of hire-purchase credit, as compared to 94% in the Dry Zone Banks play a smaller role in financing agricultural machinery sales in Shan than in the Dry zone. Hire-purchase finance from banks account for a smaller share of sales than hire purchase loans from machinery suppliers or sales made without finance. This is the inverse of the situation to the Dry Zone Access to finance may be less common in Shan than the Dry Zone because fewer farmers in Shan possess land-use certificates that machinery dealerships often require as a guarantee for loans.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–09–13
  24. By: Ngueuleweu Tiwang, Gildas
    Abstract: This study investigates the contribution of food system to food security and nutrition through the performance of supply chain of the food system. Supply chain performance metrics are developed from food elasticities (Hull, 2005), which are derived from food system estimates and regression technique highlights their relationships with food security. Data used are from two sources: producers and consumers price indices as well as quantities of foods produced, consumed, and imported are all from the FAOstat, while statistics on gross domestic products, expenditures for consumption, nutrition and food security indicators are from the WDI database. The study covers a total of 31 African countries. Expected results are threefold: First, an address of supply-demand gap for each country. Second, using performance metrics, the study shows the capacity of each country to react to different food shocks. Thirdly, the study investigates the effects of performance of supply chain of food system on food security and nutrition using velocity parallelism approach.
    Keywords: food demand system, food security, elasticity, food nutrient.
    JEL: Q11 Q13 Q18
    Date: 2020
  25. By: Lim, Aik Hoe; Mathur, Sajal; Suk, Gowoon
    Abstract: In order to ensure transparency and to keep abreast of trade policies in support of sustainability, the WTO Committee on Trade and Environment (CTE) mandated the WTO Secretariat to compile and collate all environment-related measures notified to WTO. The database also includes environment-related entries found in Trade Policy Reviews (TPRs). This information, which is updated annually, is contained in the WTO Environmental Database ( It has nearly 11,500 measures drawn from WTO notifications and over 7,800 trade policy review entries. By analysing the trade policy review entries over time, we can better understand how the relationship between trade and environment is evolving in Members' trade policies, the relevant sectors involved, and the types of instruments which are most frequently used to pursue environmental objectives.
    Keywords: Agriculture,Circular Economy,Climate,Energy,Environment,Environment and Trade,Fisheries,Forestry,International Trade,Policy Making,Trade,Trade Policy,Services,Waste,Wildlife,WTO
    JEL: F13 F18 F42 F64 F68 Q56
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Luca Di Corato (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Tsegaye Ginbo (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden)
    Abstract: Climate change and emerging pest and diseases may negatively affect coffee yields and revenues in some Ethiopian regions. Hence, the relocation of coffee farms to other areas has been suggested. In this paper, we study how sunk establishment costs, uncertain net returns, and policy induced incentives may affect the timing and value of a coffee farm relocation. This is done by developing a real-options model taking into account the relevant drivers of the farmer's decision to relocate. We then present an empirical analysis examining a hypothetical relocation. We show that relocation is a rather attractive opportunity even though the presence of volatile net returns and relatively high establishment costs may induce its postponement. Thus, we identify under which circumstances subsidies may foster the relocation process and determine their amount.
    Keywords: Real-options, Coffee farms, Climate Adaptation, Relocation
    JEL: C61 Q54 Q58 R11
    Date: 2020
  27. By: Nguyen, V.C.
    Abstract: Vietnam has officially joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP); the agreement is expected to have positive effects on attracting FDI and increasing investment in the agriculture, forestry and seafood and rural economic development, where has nearly 40% workforce in Vietnam.
    Date: 2020–04–19
  28. By: Brink, Lars; Orden, David
    Abstract: This paper reviews the domestic support rules of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) and evaluates the space they generate for different members to provide different kinds and levels of support subject to and exempt from limits. Economic analysis of support is reviewed, focused on direct payments to producers and market price support (MPS) measured in the AoA compared to economic price support. A global overview presents the major changes in members’ domestic support as revealed by their notifications to the WTO Committee on Agriculture (CoA) for 1995-2016, complemented by selected subsequent information. Key results are a shift toward less-distorting support (recent support in the United States since 2018 one exception), concentration of support among a small number of members, and the rise of China and India as top support providers, along with the European Union, the United States and Japan. The paper summarizes discussion within the CoA over the notified information and other questions about members’ domestic support. It examines the measurement of MPS for wheat and rice in the recent dispute China ‒ Agricultural Producers and for several products for India, including in three ongoing disputes India ‒ Measures Concerning Sugar and Sugarcane. Our assessments highlight the problematic aspects of the AoA measurement. China’s MPS, when measured in line with the dispute settlement ruling, can be accommodated within its limits while hardly constraining its economic support. Conversely, some measurements of India’s MPS are far greater than the economic support provided. Such divergences underlie contention about the consequences of applying the AoA rules. An alternative is considered that more closely tracks economic support by using lagged international border prices as a reference price. Members continue to debate domestic support options. Whether progress can be made is uncertain as they hold fast to longstanding positions on such issues as the rules and limits applying to domestic support as a whole, to cotton support and to the consequences of acquisition at administered prices of public stocks for food security purposes. New policy priorities have gained prominence, most notably climate change, but related also to productivity growth, biosecurity, water management and biodiversity. Governments have the option to address these and other priorities through green box support exempt from limit. More explicit green box specifications might clarify what support policies in the area of mitigating climate change would qualify for exemption. The paper concludes by assessing how the diverse pressures for change affect the potential of the AoA to contribute to a fair and market-oriented agricultural trading system. We summarize the major problematic aspects of the AoA and from these insights suggest options to improve and strengthen the WTO rules and commitments on domestic support.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2020–04
  29. By: Herman R. J. Vollebergh; Corjan Brink
    Abstract: This paper discusses lessons that other regions could learn from European Union’s effort to implement carbon pricing through EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS). Our lessons are, first of all, that a cap-and-trade system like EU ETS is very helpful in guaranteeing a credible and binding reduction of emissions through its cap within the sectors subject to this regulation. Second, providing enough flexibility for trade, in particular intertemporal trade, is essential but should also be guided with care. The current quantity rules for the Market Stability Reserve to steer the abundancy of allowances seems a promising new feature for cap-and-trade policies, although price collars for newly designed systems create more transparency. Third, it is far from obvious why EU ETS should cover the entire carbon emissions base if other instruments, like (implicit) carbon taxes are already available. Finally, EU ETS seems at least partially responsible for the observed steady reduction of carbon emission within the EU ETS sectors. However, the gradual tendency to outsource emissions to other regions justifies carbon border adjustment mechanisms for selected sectors if other regions do not impose carbon pricing rules.
    Keywords: climate policy, carbon pricing, European Union Emission Trading System, Market Stability Reserve
    JEL: D47 D62 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2020
  30. By: Ademmer, Martin; Jannsen, Nils; Mösle, Saskia
    Abstract: In this paper, we exploit exogenous variation in navigability of the Rhine river to analyze the impact of weather-related supply shocks on economic activity in Germany. Our analysis shows that low water levels lead to transportation disruptions that cause a significant and economically meaningful decrease of economic activity. In a month with 30 days of low water, industrial production in Germany declines by about 1 percent, ceteris paribus. Our analysis highlights the importance of extreme weather events for business cycle analysis and contributes to gauging the costs of extreme weather events in advanced economies. Furthermore, we provide a specific example for an idiosyncratic supply shock to a small sector that amplifies to an economically meaningful effect at the macroeconomic level.
    Keywords: Climate,extreme weather events,low water,supply shocks,business cycle effects
    JEL: E32 Q54
    Date: 2020
  31. By: Bangsund, Dean A.; Shaik, Saleem; Saxowsky, David; Hodur, Nancy M.; Ndembe, Elivs
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management
    Date: 2020–05–05
  32. By: Samantha Padilla; Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie; Robert J. Myers
    Abstract: While Africa has seen a rapid growth of commercial livestock enterprises with its food systems transformation, little is known about their viability. We explore the profitability of commercial poultry enterprises facing rising input costs and increasing energy needs due to the adoption of climate mitigating technologies in Nigeria. Using a cross-sectional dataset and a one-year weekly panel of farm inputs and prices, we employ a discrete time, discrete control and state space dynamic programming model disaggregated by farm size to determine the source of economies of scale among commercial poultry farms. In the presence of high feed costs and increased energy needs, the optimal decision for medium sized farms is to sell and exit the industry. However, it remains profitable for large farms to stay in the sector. The findings are robust to various alternative model assumptions and specifications. They indicate that broiler farms need larger stock sizes to withstand negative input price shocks and expand energy consumption in the face of volatile and hotter temperatures. The sensitivity of the poultry industry to the feed prices is a major threat to the growth and survival of farms and highlight the importance of developing risk management mechanisms to stabilize prices.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–05–07
  33. By: Salas-Ortiz, A.;
    Abstract: Mexico faces one of the most acute obesity crises worldwide. While most of the literature has focused on studying the immediate causes of the phenomenon, very few have gone further to explore the structural causes of the public health problem, such as inequality of opportunity (IOp). The research agenda after the canonical work of John Roemer acknowledges that not all inequalities are equally illegitimate or unfair. The essence of the concept of inequality of opportunity relies on identifying the sources behind the variation of an outcome. Equality of opportunity is defined as a situation where individuals face equal circumstances (exogenous factors in which people do not have any control and therefore, cannot be held responsible for)for an outcome. This study aims to measure, identify and characterise the dynamics of the role of IOp in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) for Mexican adults. Results show that inequalities in BMI and WC related to circumstances exist and vary between sex, geographical regions and percentiles of the distribution. Age and diabetes inherited from the parents are the main drivers of inequality. These findings highlight the need to design differentiated health policies that provide equality of opportunity; mitigate unequal circumstances of origin and compensate people for inherited unequal playing fields.
    Keywords: inequality of opportunity in health; distributive justice; inequality related to circumstances; overweight and obesity; Mexico;
    Date: 2020–02
  34. By: Guy Blaise Nkamleu . (DEpartment of Economics African Development Bank Tunis, Tunisia)
    Abstract: Child labour is a widespread and growing phenomenon in the developing world. This paper looks at the determinants of child labour participation in the cocoa farming sector of Côte d’Ivoire, an issue of special interest because the country accounts for approximately 40% of the world’s cocoa production. The study investigates child labour in conjunction with schooling status of children. It is based on a study done in 2002 that surveyed a representative sample of more than 11,000 members of cocoa households. A multinomial logit model was used to capture choice probabilities across work and school options. The results reveal that child labour in cocoa farms and non-enrolment in schools are significant. Moreover, many children are involved in potentially dangerous and/or harmful tasks. Data also highlight gender and age dimensions in the participation of children in tasks and the way labour is allocated. Econometric results generally indicated that the gender and age of children, whether or not the child is the biological child of the household head, parents’ education, the household dependency ratio, the farm size, the cocoa productivity level, the number of sharecroppers working with the household head, agroecological zone and communities’ characteristics are all pertinent in explaining the childwork/schooling outcome.
  35. By: Olga Chiappinelli; Karsten Neuhoff
    Abstract: Carbon pricing decisions by governments are prone to time-inconsistency, which causes the private sector to underinvest in emission-reducing technologies. We show that incentives for decarbonization can be improved if complementing carbon pricing with carbon contracts for differences, where the government commits to pay a fixed carbon price level to the investors. We derive conditions under which the government is willing to “tie its hands” with the contracts.
    Keywords: Carbon pricing, time-inconsistency, green technology, climate policy, carbon contracts
    JEL: C73 L51 O31 Q58
    Date: 2020
  36. By: Ojo, Idowu Oladeji; Popoola, David Prince
    Abstract: This study examines the determinants of multidimensional poverty level among poultry farming households in Oyo State. A multistage sampling technique was employed to collect data from 210 poultry farmers within four local government areas of the state using well-structured questionnaires. Descriptive statistics, Z-test, Alkire-Foster multidimensional poverty indices and Tobit regression model were used in data analysis. Result shows that; relative to education dimension, highest incidence of deprivations among the poor poultry farming households exists in the health and standard of living dimensions where 88% of the poor poultry farmers are deprived of access to clean water and quality healthcare. Education level, age, household size, cooperative membership, primary labour source, farm size, and quality health access determine the level of multidimensional poverty among poultry farming households in the study area; hence, policy options should favor these factors while discouraging large household size and sole dependence on family labor.
    Keywords: Z-test,Multidimensional Poverty,Poultry,Southwest Nigeria,Tobit Regression
    Date: 2020
  37. By: Bontemps, Christophe; Bougherara, Douadia; Nauges, Céline
    Abstract: Even if there exists an extensive literature on the modeling of farmers’ behavior under risk, actual measurements of the quantitative impact of risk aversion on input use are rare. In this article we use simulated data to quantify the impact of risk aversion on the optimal quantity of input and farmers’ welfare when production risk depends on how much of the input is used. The assumptions made on the technology and form of farmers’ risk preferences were chosen such that they are fairly representative of crop farming conditions in the US and Western Europe. In our benchmark scenario featuring a traditional expected utility model we find that less than 4% of the optimal pesticide expenditure is driven by risk aversion and that risk induces a decrease in welfare that varies from ‐1.5% to ‐3.0% for individuals with moderate to normal risk aversion. We find a stronger impact of risk aversion on quantities of input used when farmers’ risk preferences are modeled under the cumulative prospect theory framework. When the reference point is set at the median or maximum profit, and for some levels of the parameters that describe behavior toward losses, the quantity of input used that is driven by risk preferences represents up to 19% of the pesticide expenditure.
    Date: 2020–05
  38. By: Ryan Vroegindewey; Véronique Thériault; Robert Richardson; Kimberly Chung
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–08–29
  39. By: Donatella Baiardi (University of Parma, Italy; Center for European Studies); Claudio Morana (University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy; Center for European Studies; Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)
    Abstract: In this paper we assess public attitudes on climate change in Europe over the last decade. Using aggregate figures from the Special Eurobarometer surveys on Climate Change, we find that climate change attitudes have evolved according to the “S-shaped” information dissemination model, conditional to various socioeconomic and climatological factors. In particular, we find that environmental awareness is directly related to per capita income, social trust, secondary education, the physical distress associated with hot weather and loss caused by extreme weather episodes. It is also inversely related to greenhouse gas emissions and tertiary education. Moreover, consistent with our epidemics-like narrative, we find a negative impact for Donald Trump's denial campaigns and a larger positive effect for Greta Thunberg's environmental activism. In terms of policy implications, this paper calls on the EU to take up leadership in the fight against climate change and declare a climate emergency. It also calls on teachers to introduce their students to climate change, science journals to allow wide access to any climate change article they publish and public institutions to protect climate change evidence from politicization. This paper finally calls for the close coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, to allow the green bonds market to reach rapidly the size required for the implementation of effective climate change mitigation policies.
    Keywords: climate change, environmental attitude, green bonds, mitigation policy, EU
    JEL: Q50 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2020–04
  40. By: Kaede Johnson; Stephen F. Lin; Tyler Powell
    Abstract: This note argues that certain factors, especially slower productivity growth and lower natural rates of unemployment, can explain much of the weakness of wage growth and the apparent breakdown of the simple wage Phillips curve.
    Date: 2020–01–08
  41. By: Wolfgang Britz (University of Bonn); Yaghoob Jafari (University of Bonn); Alexandr Nekhay (Loyola Andalusia University, Seville); Roberto Roson (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari; Loyola Andalusia University, Seville; GREEN Bocconi University, Milan)
    Abstract: This paper presents an empirical exercise, aimed at investigating the implications on poverty and income distribution of a reference scenario (SSP2) of economic development. It does so by coupling a dynamic general equilibrium model of the global economy, specifically designed to capture structural change dynamics in the medium and long run, with detailed micro data on household income in six countries: Albania, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nicaragua and Vietnam. We also consider an alternative scenario of accelerated international trade integration, with a higher degree of trade openness. We found that long run structural change widens income inequality in all six developing countries. Accelerated trade integration amplifies the effect further, but most of it is already generated in the baseline scenario. A decrease in the relative value of land property and an increase in the relative value of capital ownership appear as key determinants. We decompose income differentials in three dimensions. Structural change worsens the income gap between male and female headed households, but the additional impact of trade is minimal. The effect of structural change is not uniform across countries when income of rural households is contrasted with the one of urban households, yet more trade reduces the relative rural income. Relative poverty increases in both the baseline and the larger trade volume case. However, we found that absolute poverty would be eradicated in almost all countries by the year 2050.
    Keywords: Shared socioeconomic pathways, dynamic computable general equilibrium models, structural change, development scenarios, Albania, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nicaragua, Vietnam, income inequality, microsimulation, poverty
    JEL: C68 E17 F17 I32 O11 O15 O41
    Date: 2020
  42. By: Lara Ahmann (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Martin Distelkamp (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Dr. Christian Lutz (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Dr. Markus Flaute (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)
    Abstract: In this documentation, the socio-economic dimension of the German bioeconomy (BE) is reported for the recent past. The presented findings were developed as part of the project SYMOBIO (, a research project funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as part of the concept of "Bioeconomy as Societal Change". The research consortium is working to create the scientific basis for monitoring the bioeconomy (BE) in Germany by a systemic understanding and modelling of the German BE with respect to sustainability aspects on a national and international level. Work packages of SYMOBIO deal with the footprints agricultural land use, forestry wood, water and GHG emissions. In addition to this, the project deals with the challenges in monitoring the social and economic sustainability dimensions of the BE. To assess the sustainability of the BE a set of indicators has to be defined and quantified that simultaneously look at the economic, social and environmental sustainability of the BE (see Egenolf, Bringezu 2019). Hence, one part of the project is to identify and assess key indicators that show the impacts of the BE on the (global) environment due to domestic use and/or production. The indicators for the socio-economic dimension are presented in this documentation. One of the key challenges to assess indicators for the BE is the lack of explicit data for BE in statistical classifications and some of the new parts just emerged over the last years. Different sectors such as agriculture or forestry can mainly or exclusively be attributed to the BE. For other sectors and activities such as fuel use or electricity production, part of the sector belongs to the BE, other parts not. Therefore, the socio-economic performance of the BE cannot be directly observed from official statistics, but for certain parts of the BE the relevance of BE activities (within the activity at hand) has to be assessed, using secondary statistics. As already discussed in D 2.6.1, the assessment of BEshares on the base of IO-Tables is one of the options to deal with this challenge (Distelkamp et al. 2017). Main emphasis of this paper is to assess past trends for selected indicators that deal with the economic and/or social sustainability of the BE in Germany. Socio-economic indicators have been identified that reflect the global value chains.
    Keywords: German bioeconomy, SYMOBIO, Sustainability
    JEL: Q5 Q2 O1
    Date: 2019
  43. By: Thomas-Agnan, Christine; Laurent, Thibault; Ruiz-Gazen, Anne; Nguyen, T.H.A; Chakir, Raja; Lungarska, Anna
    Abstract: Econometric land use models study determinants of land-use-shares of different classes: ``agriculture'', ``forest'', ``urban'' and ``other'' for example. Land-use-shares have a compositional nature as well as an important spatial dimension. We compare two compositional regression models with a spatial autoregressive nature in the framework of land use. We study the impact of the choice of coordinate space. We discuss parameters interpretation taking into account the non linear structure as well as the spatial dimension. We compute and interpret the semi-elasticities of the shares with respect to the explanatory variables and the spatial impact summary measures.
    Keywords: compositional regression model; marginal effects; simplicial derivative; elasticity; semi-elasticity.
    JEL: C10 C39 C46 C65 M31 Q15
    Date: 2020–05
  44. By: Hughes, David W.; Yu, Edward; Griffith, Andrew P.; Wilson, Brad; Loveday, Dwight; Crissy, Harry; Schrick, Neal
    Abstract: Beef cattle and dairy farmers seek local markets for their culled livestock. Livestock processing facilities offer such opportunities and also assist rural communities in need of economic growth. Provided here is an analysis regarding the feasibility of a cull cattle processing facility in one of the 15 economically distressed counties in Tennessee. Initially examined is the cost of obtaining cows for processing at the facility, followed by a facility location analysis. A discussion of estimates regarding facility construction, facility equipment and facility labor needs and costs is followed by a discussion regarding facility output and revenue. Financial analysis regarding total cost and profitability including sensitivity analysis with respect to key variables is provided. Finally, overall feasibility of the facility is discussed and summary and conclusions are drawn.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2020–05–04
  45. By: Abdramane Traoré; Amadou Samaké; Ousmane Sanogo; Steven Haggblade; Yenizie Koné
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–07–31
  46. By: Shapiro, Joseph S.
    Abstract: This paper documents a new fact, then analyzes its causes and consequences: in most countries, import tariffs and non-tariff barriers are substantially lower on dirty than on clean industries, where an industry’s “dirtiness” is defined as its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per dollar of output. This difference in trade policy creates a global implicit subsidy to CO2 emissions in internationally traded goods and so contributes to climate change. This global implicit subsidy to CO2 emissions totals several hundred billion dollars annually. The greater protection of downstream industries, which are relatively clean, substantially accounts for this pattern. The downstream pattern can be explained by theories where industries lobby for low tariffs on their inputs but final consumers are poorly organized. A quantitative general equilibrium model suggests that if countries applied similar trade policies to clean and dirty goods, global CO2 emissions would decrease and global real income would change little
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, climate change, trade policy, trade and the environment
    Date: 2020–05–02

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.