nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2020‒04‒13
twenty-six papers chosen by

  1. Economic, pro-social and pro-environmental factors influencing participation in an incentive-based conservation program in Bolivia By Manon Authelet; Julie Subervie; Patrick Meyfroidt; Niguel Asquith; Driss Ezzine-de Blas
  2. Value chain development to benefit smallholders in Ghana: The effectiveness of selected interventions By Kolavalli, Shashidhara; Agandin, John; Ampofo, Aaron; Kemeze, Francis; Amewu, Sena
  3. Do storage and structural factors determine agricultural commercialization in India By A. Ganesh Kumar; Varun Kumar Das
  4. Does Climate Change Make Foodgrain Yields More Unpredictable? Evidence from India By Saumya Verma; Shreekant Gupta; Partha Sen
  5. 2020 Global food policy report: Building inclusive food systems: Synopsis By International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
  6. Farmers’ Food Price Volatility and Nigeria’s Growth Enhancement Support Scheme By Joseph I. Uduji; Elda N. Okolo-Obasi; Simplice A. Asongu
  7. International risk sharing for food staples By Digvijay S. Negi; Bharat Ramaswami
  8. Modelling strategies for the reduction of fat dormice in northern Italian hazel groves. By Scire', Giovanni
  9. Maintaining plausible calorie intakes, crop yields and crop land expansion in long-run simulations with Computable General Equilibrium Models By Britz, Wolfgang
  10. Groping climate vulnerability in western mountainous Nepal: applying climate vulnerability index By Bista, Raghu
  11. Market access, price policy and diversification in Indian agriculture By Digvijay S. Negi; Pratap S. Birthal; Devesh Roy; Jaweriah Hazrana
  12. Dynamic Behaviour of Hydro/Thermal Electrical Operators Under an Environmental Policy Targeting to Preserve Ecosystems Integrity and Air Quality By Houeida Hedfi; Ahlem Dakhlaoui; Abdessalem Abbassi
  13. 2019 Annual Report of the Southwest Minnesota Farm Business Management Association By Van Nurden, Pauline A.; Paulson, Garen J.; Nitchie, Donald L.; Knorr, Tonya L.; Purdy, Rachel A.; Nordquist, Dale W.
  14. Do Large-scale Point-of-sale Data Satisfy the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference in Aggregation Using Representative Price Indexes?: A Case Involving Processed Food and Beverages By Sato, Hideyasu
  15. Agricultural Sector Performance, Institutional Framework and Food Security in Nigeria By Romanus Osabohien; Evans Osabuohien; Precious Ohalete
  16. Trends in water-related technological innovation: Insights from patent data By Xavier Leflaive; Ben Krieble; Harry Smythe
  17. The Impact of Vulnerability and Income distribution on Inequality and Poverty: Analysis of Flood and landslides in Vulnerable Locations of Nepal By Bista, Raghu
  18. The Ecological Impact of Place-Based Economic Policies By Garg, Teevrat; Shenoy, Ajay
  19. Nutrition policy in Nigeria By Vanderkooy, A.; Verstraeten, Roos; Adeyemi, O.; Covic, Namukolo; Becquey, Elodie; Diatta, Ampa Dogui; Touré, Mariama
  20. IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 61 The narrative on rural youth and economic opportunities in Africa: facts, myths and gaps By Mabiso, Athur; Benfica, Rui
  21. Nutrition policy in West Africa By Vanderkooy, A.; Verstraeten, Roos; Diatta, Ampa Dogui; Diop, Loty; Touré, Mariama
  22. How Is the Margin Protection Program Performing for Tennessee Dairy Producers? By Griffith, Andrew P.; Bilderback, David; Eckelkamp, Liz
  23. Migration Costs and Observational Returns to Migration in the Developing World By David Lagakos; Samuel Marshall; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Corey Vernot; Michael E. Waugh
  24. Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on Crops to End Hunger By Wiebe, Keith; Sulser, Timothy B; Dunston, Shahnila; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Fuglie, Keith; Willenbockel, Dirk; Nelson, Gerald C.
  25. ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns By Ajmani, Manmeet; Choudhary, Vishruta; Kishore, Avinash; Roy, Devesh
  26. Demand and supply side factors for accelerating varietal turnover: An evidence from soybean in India By Nuthalapati, Chandra Sekhara Rao; Sonkar, Vinay Kumar; Kumar, Anjani

  1. By: Manon Authelet (Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Gembloux] - Université de Liège); Julie Subervie (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Patrick Meyfroidt (ELI - Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain); Niguel Asquith (John F. Kennedy School of Government - Harvard University [Cambridge]); Driss Ezzine-de Blas (Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)
    Abstract: The effectiveness of incentive-based conservation programs depends on how they influence and interact with multiple motivations of the participants. Here, we studied an incentive-based program for forest conservation in Bolivia – called "Reciprocal Water Agreements" – that mixes material compensations with pro-social and pro-environmental motivations as a way to reduce crowding-out of intrinsic motivations and to increase participation. Based on a sample of 424 households who were offered the program, we analysed econometrically the households' characteristics that influenced (i) the probability of participation in the program, (ii) the intensity of the participation, measured as the area allocated in the agreement, and (iii) the modality of participation, measured as the probability of participation in the different types of agreements. We found that economic factors favoured participation of better-off households owning property titles, more forested land with lower conservation opportunity cost, more agricultural tools and access to off-farm income. In addition, both pro-social factors – a deeper or older integration into social networks, and greater compliance to social norms of reciprocity, but also weaker institutional trust – as well as pro-environmental factors – including awareness of environmental problems, greater knowledge about solutions to environmental problems and a perceived positive balance of gains and losses in ecosystem services – also influenced positively the probability of participation and the area involved in the program. Finally, we found that participation into more restrictive agreements was enabled by a stronger sense of individual responsibility towards environmental problems and a weaker perceived control over environmental behaviours. Our results highlight the factors that could increase uptake and factors on which the program might focus in order to have a greater impact on pro-environmental behaviours. They also suggest that incentive-based program can be designed to take advantage of pro-social and pro-environmental motivations as strongly as of economic ones.
    Keywords: Motivations,participation,incentive-based conservation program,forest conservation,South America,Bolivia.
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Kolavalli, Shashidhara; Agandin, John; Ampofo, Aaron; Kemeze, Francis; Amewu, Sena
    Abstract: This study examines interventions in two agricultural development projects in Ghana which aimed to build competitiveness of selected value chains to generate growth and reduce poverty – the Northern Rural Growth Project, implemented between 2009 and 2016, and the Market Oriented Agriculture Programme, which began in 2004 and is still in place. These projects aimed to sustainably increase rural households’ income through the development of inclusive and profitable agricultural commodity and food value chains to generate agricultural surpluses and to benefit from improved access to remunerative markets. In this study, the efficacy of four sorts of value chain interventions implemented by the two projects are examined in the context of the strengthening maize, pineapple, mango, and citrus value chains: • Facilitating interactions among value chain actors to encourage technical and institutional innovations, • Improving the operations of individual actors, such as producers, service providers, traders, and processors; • Helping develop new services for producers or initiating new producer institutions; and • Improving infrastructure. The study sought to identify how, where, and when might it be appropriate to intervene in value chains, particularly to benefit smallholders. While the lessons from this study do not comprehensively answer these questions, a better understanding is provided on the reasons behind the outcomes the projects attained in seeking to strengthen agricultural commodity value chains and some guidance is offered on how interventions aimed at doing so should be designed.
    Date: 2020
  3. By: A. Ganesh Kumar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Varun Kumar Das (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the role of storage facility and structural factors in determining agricultural commercialization in India. Commercialization of agriculture represents an important aspect of farm market behaviour. Farmers commercialization decision may be represented by farmers decision to participate in market sale, degree of market participation, number of market transactions and diversity of market agency sale. Access to storage could significantly regulate post-harvest management and marketing decisions by farmers. It could prevent distress sale and enhance better commercialization practices by farm households. Apart from access to storage facilities, this study considers various other farm, household, and structural variables in affecting farmers crop sale outcomes. Results show that farm households with likely access to storage facility have higher probability to participate in market transaction, sell more number of crops, and are more likely to have higher number of market transactions. This shows that having access to storage facility is likely to raise agricultural commercialization of farmers in India. The findings also show that structural or location specific variables which are beyond the control of the farm and household could significantly affect farmers marketing decisions.
    Keywords: Commercialization; storage; sale ratio; agency sale; sale diversity; market participation; market transaction; structural factors
    JEL: O13 Q12 Q13 Q18
    Date: 2020–01
  4. By: Saumya Verma; Shreekant Gupta; Partha Sen
    Abstract: How would climate change affect India’s agriculture which accounts for sixty percent of employment? We study the impact of climate change on the level and variability of yields of rice (India’s major food crop) and two key millet crops (sorghum and pearl millet), using an all India district level panel dataset from 1966-2011. A stochastic production function is estimated with exogenous climate anomalies. We find that climate change adversely affects both the level and variability of crop yields - rice yields are reduced by rainfall extremes whereas extremely high temperatures make yields of all three crops highly variable with the biggest impact on millets.
    Keywords: agriculture, climate change, foodgrain yields, India, millets, rice, stochastic production function
    JEL: Q54 O13 D24
    Date: 2020
  5. By: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
    Abstract: Food systems are at a critical juncture—they are evolving quickly to meet growing and changing demand but are not serving everyone’s needs. Building more inclusive food systems can bring a wide range of economic and development benefits to all people, especially the poor and disadvantaged. IFPRI’s 2020 Global Food Policy Report examines the policies and investments and the growing range of tools and technologies that can promote inclusion. Chapters examine the imperative of inclusion, challenges faced by smallholders, youth, women, and conflict-affected people, and the opportunities offered by expanding agrifood value chains and national food system transformations. Critical questions addressed include: How can inclusive food systems help break the intergenerational cycle of poverty and malnutrition? \What can be done to strengthen the midstream of food value chains to improve rural access to jobs, markets, and services? Will Africa’s food systems generate sufficient jobs for the growing youth population? How can women be empowered within food system processes, from household decisions to policymaking? Can refugees and other conflict-affected people be integrated into food systems to help them rebuild their lives? How can national food system transformations contribute to greater dietary diversity, food safety, and food quality for all? Regional sections look at how inclusion can be improved around the world in 2020 and beyond. The report also presents interesting trends revealed by IFPRI’s food policy indicators and datasets.
    Keywords: AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, CENTRAL AFRICA, EAST AFRICA, NORTH AFRICA, SOUTHERN AFRICA, WEST AFRICA, agricultural policies, food policies, food systems, youth, value chains, empowerment, gender, women, diet, refugees, displacement, conflicts, smallholders, rural areas, food security, nutrition, inclusion, inclusive food systems,
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Joseph I. Uduji (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Elda N. Okolo-Obasi (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: The prices of food in Nigeria have become considerably higher and more volatile since 2012. The aim of this research was to ascertain factors affecting farmers’ involvement in the growth enhancement support programme (GESS) in the country. We ascertained the effect of the GESS on the handiness of market information and agricultural inputs that impact on price volatility at farm gate level. In number, 600 rural farmers were sampled across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Results obtained from the use of a bivariate probit model show that farmers relied on the GESS for resolving food price volatility by making available the food market information and agricultural inputs that cut down the incidence and degree of panic-compelled price increment in Nigeria. The findings suggested the need to enhance the GESS in line with the agricultural transformation agenda (ATA) by reducing the hindrances mostly connected to the use of mobile phones, and how far the registration and collection centers are.
    Keywords: Agricultural transformation agenda, bivariate probit model, food price volatility, growth enhancement support scheme, rural farmers, Nigeria
    JEL: O13 Q10 N27
    Date: 2019–01
  7. By: Digvijay S. Negi (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Bharat Ramaswami (Ashoka University)
    Abstract: It is claimed that the world food supplies are more stable than the domestic supplies, and therefore free trade should achieve a higher degree of stability in prices and consumption than autarkic policies. The risk sharing implicit in such an argument, has, however never been formally examined. In this paper, we study the patterns of risk sharing in the global markets of rice, wheat and maize, and quantify the contribution of trade and stocks towards risk sharing. We adopt the predictions of the efficient risk sharing hypothesis as a benchmark and generalize the canonical single composite good model. While the data rejects the efficient risk sharing hypothesis, the wheat market is closest to the efficient risk sharing allocation. Trade is more important than storage in smoothing domestic production shocks. Further, we find that the degree of risk sharing is positively associated with income levels of the countries.
    Keywords: food markets, risk sharing, international trade, supply shocks
    JEL: F14 Q17 D52
    Date: 2020–01
  8. By: Scire', Giovanni
    Abstract: The production of hazelnuts represents an important resource for several Italian rural areas. Sicily and Piedmont, two of the most important producers of hazelnuts, are affected by the presence of the dormouse (Glis glis), that has considerably severely harmed the production of hazelnuts. This study aims to analyse the issue in the Province of Cuneo in Piedmont and to evaluate the sustainability of the policies implemented by using the System Dynamics (SD) methodology. An SD predator-prey microworld was built to reproduce the main relevant cause and effect relationships between the development of the dormouse population and local hazelnut production. The results of the SD microworld simulation show the effects of reduction policies on hazelnut production over time. The findings and further research recommendations are briefly reported in the conclusion section.
    JEL: C02 C61 C63 M00 Q0 Q00 Q01 Q10 Q15 Q18 Q23 Q57
    Date: 2019–02–22
  9. By: Britz, Wolfgang
    Abstract: We demonstrate how a combination of different elements can jointly provide plausible long-term trends for calorie intakes, crop yields and land use in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis. Specifically, we depict household demand based on a MAIDADS demand system estimated based on cross-sectional data. In order to control for calorie intake we first regress calorie intake on per capita income and construct a Leontief inverse to derive implicit calorie intakes from the final consumption of processed food. This allows jointly shifting preferences of the MAIDADS system by updating commitment terms and marginal budget shares, to arrive at plausible per capita calorie intakes during baseline construction. We control yields based on exogenous projections which we also use to parameterize our land supply functions. The contribution of the different elements is evaluated by comprising key developments in baselines up to 2050 constructed with different model variants
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2020–04–08
  10. By: Bista, Raghu
    Abstract: This study examines the relationship between the magnitude of climate vulnerability, location and altitude of the catchment areas of Sot Khola sub water basin in western mountainous Surkhet, Nepal by building climate vulnerability index by cluster based on the primary data sources. Household survey covering adaptive, sensitive and exposure was conducted in 642 households of the catchment areas for the primary data set. The study has built climate vulnerability index (CVI) of Sot Khola sub water basin’s catchment areas, which provides sufficient evidence of heterogeneity in vulnerability of household across location and altitude of the catchment areas. In all clusters, all households are vulnerable at different level. About 69 percent household in all clusters is vulnerable in which 31 percent households are highly vulnerable. Lower cluster of the catchment areas ( Lekhagaon and Kunathari) are more vulnerable than upper cluster of the catchment areas(Gadhi), except the lower cluster of Gadhi. Therefore, the altitude and magnitude of climate change vulnerability have negative correlation in case of water-induced disasters. In case of climate change vulnerability, household’s socio economic and magnitude of climate change vulnerability have also negative correlation.
    Keywords: climate change, vulnerability, water basin, water-induced disasters, flood
    JEL: O53 Q25 Q54 Q56 Q57 Q58
    Date: 2019–01–01
  11. By: Digvijay S. Negi (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Pratap S. Birthal (ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research); Devesh Roy (International Food Policy Research Institute and A4NH); Jaweriah Hazrana (ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research)
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence of a causal relationship between the access to markets and the crop partial policies on the pattern of specialization or diversification in Indian agriculture. We uniquely combine highly spatially disaggregated data on cropping patterns, amenities, and market size at a granular level, and construct a measure of market access using indicators from both the supply and the demand side of trade. We employ the heteroscedasticity based two-stage Lewbel (2012) estimator to address the possible endogeneity of market access and also test for non-linearity between market access and crop diversification. Our results show that locations connected with bigger markets are more diversified into vegetables, and cash crops like oilseeds and cotton. However, the effect of market access moderates after a threshold level of diversification probably because of the non-market constraints. Nonetheless, the policy-induced distortions in agri-food markets, the nucleus of policies in the form of procurement of cereals mainly rice and wheat at the government-determined pre-announced minimum support prices, significantly attenuates the effect of market access on crop diversification.
    Keywords: Crop diversification, Market access, Policy distortion, India
    JEL: O13 Q18 R14
    Date: 2020–03
  12. By: Houeida Hedfi (UR MASE - Modélisation et Analyse Statistique et Economique - ESSAIT - Ecole Supérieure de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information - Université de Carthage - University of Carthage); Ahlem Dakhlaoui (LEGI - Laboratoire d'Économie et de Gestion Industrielle [Tunis] - Ecole Polytechnique de Tunisie); Abdessalem Abbassi (Centre de Recherche en économie de l'Environnement, de l'Agroalimentaire, des Transports et de l'Énergie (CREATE) - Université Laval)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the effect of an environmental policy that targets to enhance ecosystems integrity as well as air quality in the wholesale electricity market. We developed a dynamic Cournot game between a hydro and a thermal risk adverse electricity producers under demand uncertainty. We demonstrate that while improving air quality necessarily raises the market price, enhancing ecosystems integrity can, under water abundance hypothesis, reduce it. Moreover, in order to establish a statement about the environmental policy efficiency, we examine interactions between both environmental measures and their potential side effects. We show that prioritizing natural flow regime minimises necessarily the taxation efficiency on lowering air pollution and emphasizes the price rise due to the taxation. Nevertheless, the effect of the taxation policy on the efficiency of the ecosystems integrity policy depends on the hydro producer's ability to substitute thermal units. In order to establish a precise environmental statement, the regulation authority needs to compare, using appropriate criteria , the importance of an avoided unit of surrounding ecosystem alteration to an avoided unit of air polluting production, in the whole ecosystem functioning.
    Keywords: Electricity generation,Environmental policy,Dynamic modelling,Imperfect competi- tion,Ecosystems integrity,Air quality
    Date: 2020–03–28
  13. By: Van Nurden, Pauline A.; Paulson, Garen J.; Nitchie, Donald L.; Knorr, Tonya L.; Purdy, Rachel A.; Nordquist, Dale W.
    Abstract: The average net farm income for the 106 farms included in the 2019 annual report of the Southwest Minnesota Farm Business Management Association showed improved margins for the year. Improved profitability of livestock enterprises coupled with government support payments provided much of the boost in profitability. The average farm earned $145,004 in 2019, up from just over $72,000 in 2018. Yet, earnings received in the recent past are still historically low compared to those received in the first half of the decade. Crop producers saw slightly higher net farm income for the year on average. Again, much of this was provided by the Federal farm program payments related to trade losses. The southwest area of the state experienced below trendline yields and unprecedented numbers of prevented plant acres in 2019 because of the yearlong weather challenges. Overall, crop farm operations were again challenged for the year due to weather, leading to the lowest crop yields most producers have experienced in recent years. Earnings for all types of livestock operations were up from the previous year, as commodity prices for major livestock types were all improved year over year.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, Farm Management
    Date: 2020–03
  14. By: Sato, Hideyasu
    Abstract: The necessary conditions for data to be rationalized by weakly separable utility functions are verified by aggregation using representative price indexes. For processed food and beverages, the generalized axiom of revealed preference (GARP) is tested using large-scale product-level point-of-sale data. If GARP is not satisfied, the Afriat efficiency index (AEI) is introduced to assess the degree of optimization error. We find that the larger the number of observations in the time series direction, the less likely GARP is to be satisfied. However, the maximum level of AEI is, at most, more than 99.6%, indicating that the degree of the optimization error is small.
    Keywords: Aggregation, Revealed preference, Weak separability, POS data
    JEL: C43 D12 Q11
    Date: 2020–03–30
  15. By: Romanus Osabohien (Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria); Evans Osabuohien (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Precious Ohalete (Alex Ekueme Federal University, Nigeria)
    Abstract: This study examines how the performance of the agricultural sector can be enhanced in the long-run through institutional framework thereby ensuring food security in Nigeria. It employs the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) with data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), World Development Indicators (WDI), and World Governance Indicators (WDI). Food security is used as the dependent variable proxied by the number of the people undernourished under the stability dimension; agricultural sector performance and institutional framework as the independent variables, while population is a control variable. Two agricultural variables (agriculture production and agriculture credit) are employed with six variables of institutional framework. The findings show that in the long-run, agriculture production and agriculture credit (agriculture variables) will increase food security by reducing the number of people undernourished by 2% and 18%, respectively. In terms of institutional framework; political stability and absence of violence and rule of law increase food security by reducing undernourishment by approximately 69% and 29%, respectively; control of corruption and voice and accountability tends to reduce food security by increasing the number of the people undernourished by 74%, 51% and 63% respectively. Therefore, the study concludes by recommending, among others, that the Nigerian institutional framework should be improved (especially the control of corruption) in addressing the challenges in the implementation of food security programmes and ensuring timely distribution of food resources.
    Keywords: Agriculture, Food Security, Governance, Institutions
    JEL: G38 H1 O43
    Date: 2019–01
  16. By: Xavier Leflaive (OECD); Ben Krieble (OECD); Harry Smythe (OECD)
    Abstract: Innovation has a role to play to mitigate water-related risks and to support the provision of water services on which our well-being and sustainable development depend. Water-related innovation originate in a wide range of countries, with different levels of ambition. They disseminate at different scales globally.This paper uses patent data to document trends in the invention of technologies to promote water security since 1990, focusing on the countries in which inventions are developed, where they might be commercialised, and in which subsectors they originate. The water-related technologies identified in the paper can be clustered into three categories: i) water pollution abatement; ii) demand-side; and iii) supply-side. The paper describes a number of important trends that can inform a broader discussion on the factors that might hinder, or enhance, inventive activity to promote water security.
    Keywords: droughts, floods, green tech, innovation, patent, water pollution
    JEL: O13 O31 O38 Q25 Q55
    Date: 2020–04–07
  17. By: Bista, Raghu
    Abstract: Natural disaster is a key exogenous driver to unpredictable risk of uncertainty and cost of economic loss. GDP loss at national economy and welfare loss at household level in the world are major cost of such disaster. The cost that is a burden to households could change on income distribution and household income vertically and horizontally and then their livelihood and welfare. This relationship makes a curiosity whether natural disaster could change income distribution at household level in developing countries, where socio economic vulnerable groups exist so that alternative policy option can be explored to minimize such bad effects on socio economic vulnerable groups and their livelihood and welfare. This paper measures empirically the income distribution effects of natural disaster at household level based on primary data sets collected through household survey in Sot Khola water basin by using Gini coefficient method. As reference line, inequality and poverty level are employed. Comprehensive and comparative analytical tools are used for testing above research question based on two periodic data sets and information. As a result, the water shed areas had higher inequality and poverty level than national inequality line (0.33) before natural disaster. The residents were socio economically and geographically vulnerable. The natural disaster damaged heavily tangible and non-tangible assets, houses, household utensils, documents, dresses, valuable indigenous materials, emotions and food grains. Thus, the vulnerable households lost inferior their assets and insufficient food grains. Its distribution was acute at higher and lower altitude watershed areas and households than middle areas and households. In general, higher altitude watershed areas and households were more vulnerable than middle and then lower altitude watershed areas and households. Such acuteness of economic loss redistributed their inequality and poverty level in such a way with the cost of risk and uncertainty. Thus, the vulnerable population became more vulnerable and the non-vulnerable population with their adaptive capacity became less vulnerable. Thus, the natural disaster has negative income distribution effect at household level, particularly at the vulnerable household with expansion of inequality and poverty. Therefore, natural disaster results the growth of vulnerability at rural hilly areas of the river basin.
    Keywords: natural disasters, income distribution, income inequality, poverty, Nepal
    JEL: D13 D6 I32 I38 Q54 Q57 Q58
    Date: 2020–11–04
  18. By: Garg, Teevrat (University of California, San Diego); Shenoy, Ajay (University of California, Santa Cruz)
    Abstract: Does economic development have an unavoidable ecological cost? We examine the ecological impacts of one of India's signature place-based economic policies involving massive tax benefits for new industrial and infrastructure development following the creation of the new state of Uttarakhand. The policy, which had an explicit pro-environment mandate, resulted in no meaningful change in local forest cover. Our results suggest that even in settings with low levels of enforcement, place-based economic policies with pro-environment mandates can achieve sizeable economic expansion without major ecological costs.
    Keywords: place-based economic policies, agglomeration, deforestation
    JEL: Q53 O40 Q56 H54
    Date: 2020–03
  19. By: Vanderkooy, A.; Verstraeten, Roos; Adeyemi, O.; Covic, Namukolo; Becquey, Elodie; Diatta, Ampa Dogui; Touré, Mariama
    Abstract: This brief summarizes nutrition-relevant policies in Nigeria. We examine i) nutrition context, policy objectives, indicators, budget, and activities, ii) key beneficiaries, actors and coordination, iii) monitoring, evaluation, and accountability, and iv) whether current policies are aligned with the World Health Assembly (WHA) global targets.
    Keywords: NIGERIA, WEST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, nutrition, monitoring and evaluation, health, nutrition policies, accountability, child nutrition, maternal nutrition, governance, nutrition-relevant policies, beneficiaries,
    Date: 2019
  20. By: Mabiso, Athur; Benfica, Rui
    Abstract: A narrative on rural youth in Africa has continued to evolve in policy circles around the world. Much of it is driven by population statistics that point to an imminent youth bulge in Africa and concerns about economic stagnation for the continent. This paper reviews the narrative on rural youth and economic opportunities in Africa, using a set of policy documents from various African countries and regional and international organizations. Since large numbers of African rural youth are predicted to enter the agrifood system in the coming decades, there is a growing need for more investments in African agriculture to enhance the prospects of rural youth. While the evidence does show that African youth are indeed more educated than their parents and previous generations, several constraints on the level and quality of learning in rural Africa are raised.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2019
  21. By: Vanderkooy, A.; Verstraeten, Roos; Diatta, Ampa Dogui; Diop, Loty; Touré, Mariama
    Abstract: This brief summarizes nutrition-relevant policies, strategies, and action plans (all referred to as ‘policies’ in this brief) in West Africa. With a focus on the six nutrition challenges that make up the World Health Assembly (WHA) global targets, we examine i) nutrition context, policy objectives, indicators, budget, and activities, ii) key beneficiaries, actors and coordination, iii) monitoring, evaluation, and accountability, and iv) the extent to which current policies are aligned with the WHA targets.
    Keywords: WEST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, nutrition, monitoring and evaluation, health, nutrition policies, accountability, child nutrition, maternal nutrition, governance, nutrition-relevant policies, beneficiaries,
    Date: 2019
  22. By: Griffith, Andrew P.; Bilderback, David; Eckelkamp, Liz
    Abstract: The Margin Protection Program (MPP) for dairy producers was established by the Agricultural Act of 2014 (2014 Farm Bill) to reduce the market risk of dairy producers associated with the all-milk price and average feed costs. However, the MPP was amended in 2018. This article: 1. Summarizes key changes to the MPP program as a result of the 2018 amendments; 2. Summarizes the technical performance of the program, as originally established in the 2014 Farm Bill; 3. Summarizes, retrospectively, the technical performance of the program, as amended by the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018; and 4. Summarizes feedback on the MPP provided to the authors by Tennessee dairy producers.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2018–05–01
  23. By: David Lagakos; Samuel Marshall; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Corey Vernot; Michael E. Waugh
    Abstract: Recent studies find that observational returns to rural-urban migration are near zero in three developing countries. We revisit this result using panel tracking surveys from six countries, finding higher returns on average. We then interpret these returns in a multi-region Roy model with heterogeneity in migration costs. In the model, the observational return to migration confounds the urban premium and the individual benefits of migrants, and is not directly informative about the welfare gain from lowering migration costs. Patterns of regional heterogeneity in returns, and a comparison of experimental to observational returns, are consistent with the model’s predictions.
    JEL: O11 O18 R23
    Date: 2020–03
  24. By: Wiebe, Keith; Sulser, Timothy B; Dunston, Shahnila; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Fuglie, Keith; Willenbockel, Dirk; Nelson, Gerald C.
    Abstract: In 2017-2018, a group of international development funding agencies launched the Crops to End Hunger initiative to modernize public plant breeding in lower-income countries. To inform that initiative, USAID asked the International Food Policy Research Institute and the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service to estimate the impacts of faster productivity growth for 20 food crops on income and other indicators in 106 countries in developing regions in 2030. We first estimated the value of production in 2015 for each crop using data from FAO. We then used the IMPACT and GLOBE economic models to estimate changes in the value of production and changes in economy-wide income under scenarios of faster crop productivity growth, assuming that increased investment will raise annual rates of yield growth by 25% above baseline growth rates over the period 2015-2030. We found that faster productivity growth in rice and wheat increased economy-wide income in the selected countries in 2030 by 59 billion USD and 27 billion USD respectively, followed by banana and yams with increases of 9 billion USD each. While these amounts represent small shares of total GDP, they are 2-15 times current public R&D spending on food crops in developing countries. Income increased most in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Faster productivity growth in rice and wheat reduced the population at risk of hunger by 11 million people and 6 million people respectively, followed by plantain, pulses and cassava with reductions of about 2 million people each. Changes in adequacy ratios were relatively large for carbohydrates (already in surplus) and relatively small for micronutrients. In general, we found that impacts of faster productivity growth vary widely across crops, regions and outcome indicators, highlighting the importance of identifying the potentially diverse objectives of different decision makers and recognizing possible tradeoffs between objectives.
    Date: 2020–04–01
  25. By: Ajmani, Manmeet; Choudhary, Vishruta; Kishore, Avinash; Roy, Devesh
    Abstract: We assess food trade among and across two Asian trading blocs, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and China. Using most recent innovations in the empirical trade model, we find subpar trade for several countries but some over-trading as well, likely driven by weak economic fundamentals determining trade. Further, we find that Bangladesh, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam under-export to China, and to nearly all ASEAN and SAARC countries, with the magnitude varying between 40 and 100 percent below the predicted trade levels. While checking for competing explanations, we identify trading pair time variant factors such as tariffs reducing the magnitude of under-exporting of ASEAN and SAARC countries by 1 and 3 percent, respectively. We also highlight unobserved variables such as trust between countries as factors important for strong agricultural trade.
    Keywords: CHINA; EAST ASIA; ASIA; ASEAN; models; trade; international trade; gravity model; multilateral resistance; zero trade; under-trading; over-trading; SAARC
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Nuthalapati, Chandra Sekhara Rao; Sonkar, Vinay Kumar; Kumar, Anjani
    Abstract: Soybeans were promoted on a large scale in India in order to augment farmers’ incomes in poverty-stricken areas and to combat dietary protein deficiencies. Soybean cultivation in India is a unique success story, having expanded in area from zero in 1970 to 11.5 million hectares by the first decade of this millennium At this juncture, the major concern of policymakers is to sustain cultivation of soybeans by ensuring reasonable growth in yield and farm incomes in the face of competitive yield improvements in comparable crops such as corn. This paper tries to understand the varietal adoption patterns and the stages of diffusion of existing varieties. It uses a large primary data set of 1,410 farm households in central and western India to unravel the underlying pathways for accelerating varietal turnover. It employs a dynamic framework by harnessing duration analysis. The average age of the adopted varieties is 8.4 years, which is relatively high and implies slower varietal turnover. Survival functions show that adoption of the leading varieties has reached the saturation stage and that policy intervention at this point can thus have a rapid impact in terms of varietal replacement. The analysis of rate of change of varietal replacement through hazard functions throws up interesting conclusions that are relevant to the formulation of new policies. Examination of all three conceptualized pathways—farm characteristics, sources of information, and perceived traits of the varieties and of genetic improvements—suggest the need for substitution of existing varieties with new improved varieties. While the drivers of varietal change do not vary with size of farm, regional differences are relevant. This paper discusses the potential impact of policy on production and income.
    Keywords: INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; soybeans; supply balance; varieties; models; technology; agricultural extension; varietal adoption; duration model; variety traits; soybeans varities
    Date: 2020

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.