nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2020‒04‒06
thirty-six papers chosen by
Angelo Zago
Università degli Studi di Verona

  1. Climate change and the cost-effective governance mode for biodiversity conservation By Schöttker, Oliver; Wätzold, Frank
  2. The agricultural treadmill -a way out through differentiation? An empirical analysis of organic farming and the agricultural treadmill By Henning Hansen
  3. Are Malawian diets changing? An assessment of nutrient consumption and dietary patterns using household-level evidence from 2010/11 and 2016/17 By Gilbert, Rachel; Benson, Todd; Ecker, Olivier
  4. Agriculture in Kazakhstan: mutual influence of infrastructure institutions on the dynamics of agricultural production development By Stukach, Victor; Saparova, Gulnar; Sultanova, Guzel; Saginova, Saniya
  5. Estimation of a Hedonic Price Equation with instruments for Chicken Meat in the UK: Does the Organic Attribute matter? By Eduardo Ribeiro; Adelina Gschwandter; Cesar Revoredo-Giha
  6. The Future of Work in Agriculture : Some Reflections By Christiaensen,Luc; Rutledge,Zachariah Judson; Taylor,J. Edward
  7. Climate Change Impacts on Sustainable Maize Production in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review By Mulungu, Kelvin; Ng'ombe, John
  8. For real? Income and non-income effects of cash transfers on the demand for food. By Dietrich, Stephan; Schmerzeck, Georg
  9. Deforestation and Resource Conflicts in Papua New Guinea By John Gibson
  10. How Big is the “Lemons” Problem? Historical Evidence from French Wines By Pierre Mérel; Ariel Ortiz-Bobea; Emmanuel Paroissien
  11. Market information and access to structured markets by small farmers and traders: Evidence from an action research experiment in central Malawi By Ochieng, Dennis O.; Botha, Rosemary; Baulch, Bob
  12. Faced with the risks of free trade, agricultural policies necessary for the development of sustainable and resilient farming systems-Application to the dairy sector and prospects for the post-2020 CAP By Jacques LOYAT
  13. Optimal Monetary Policy in the Presence of Food Price Subsidies By William Ginn; Marc Pourroy
  14. Customary Land Conversion and the Formation of the African City By M. Picard,Pierre; Selod,Harris
  15. Pollution emission and institutions nexus in Africa By Mignamissi, Dieudonné
  16. Preferences for demand side management—a review of choice experiment studies By Gilbert Mbara
  17. Real Urban Wage in an Agricultural Economy Without Landless Farmers: Serbia 1862-1910 By , Stone Center; Mijatović, Boško; Milanovic, Branko
  18. Long-term growth impact of climate change and policies: the Advanced Climate Change Long-term (ACCL) scenario building model By Claire Alestra; Gilbert Cette; Valérie Chouard; Rémy Lecat
  19. Freshwater: The importance of freshwater for providing ecosystem services By Stella Apostolaki; Ebun Akinsete; Phoebe Koundouri; Panagiotis Samartzis
  20. Long-term low emissions development strategies: Cross-country experience By Aimée Aguilar Jaber; Brilé Anderson; Daniel Nachtigall; Fatoumata Ngom
  21. Intellectual property rights and agricultural development: Evidence from a worldwide index of IPRs in agriculture (1961-2018) By Mercedes Campi; Alessandro Nuvolari
  22. Weather Shocks By Ewen Gallic; Gauthier Vermandel
  23. Climate shocks, coping responses and gender gap in human development By Haile, Kaleab; Tirivayi, Nyasha; Nillesen, Eleonora
  24. Understanding Heterogeneous Consumer Preferences in Chinese Milk Markets: A Latent Class Approach By Xiang Wu; Bin Hu; Jie Xiong
  25. Managing the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity By Ebun Akinsete; Stella Apostolaki; Osiel Gonzalez Davila; Amerissa Giannouli; Stavros Gavroglou; Alice Guittard; Phoebe Koundouri; Eleftherios Levantis; Elisavet Mouslech; Vasileios Pergamalis; Nikitas Pittis; Dimitrios Reppas; Vassilis Skianis; Ioannis Souliotis; Stella Tsani
  26. Consumer choices and demand for tilapia in urban Malawi: What are the complementarities and trade-offs? By Chikowi, Christopher T. M.; Ochieng, Dennis O.; Jumbe, Charles B. L.
  27. Sustainable agriculture's networks in Greece By Athanassios Papageorgiou
  28. A dynamic perspective to farming system resilience and its trade-offs By Hugo Herrera; Birgit Kopainsky
  29. Overnutrition and Risk of Diabetes: A Micro Data Analysis for India By Shivani Gupta; Sangeeta Bansal
  30. Folk perceptions for avian scavengers in a tropical megacity: implications for biocultural conservation By Gupta, Urvi; Qureshi, Qamar; Kumar, Nishant
  31. Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute By Jinggang Guo; Craig M.T. Johnston
  32. Environmental Pollution, Economic Growth and Institutional Quality: Exploring the Nexus in Nigeria By Samuel Egbetokun; Evans S. Osabuohien; Temidayo Akinbobola; Olaronke Onanuga; Obindah Gershon; Victoria Okafor
  33. Macroeconomics and the Environment: A Selective Survey By Partha Sen
  34. Structure, conduct and performance of maize markets in Malawi By Ochieng, Dennis O.; Botha, Rosemary; Baulch, Bob
  35. Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS) and Farmers’ Fertilizer Use in Rural Nigeria By Joseph I. Uduji; Elda N. Okolo-Obasi; Simplice A. Asongu
  36. Success factors of innovations By Sterenn Lucas; Louis-Georges Soler; Etienne Rouvin

  1. By: Schöttker, Oliver; Wätzold, Frank
    Abstract: Optimal planning of biodiversity conservation and habitat location is paramount for the cost-effective implementation of nature and biodiversity conservation measures. Established approaches for land use planning and conservation site selection however might not be optimal in a world with changing climatic conditions. Generally, conservation organizations can choose one of two main governance modes: (1) buy land to implement conservation measures themselves on their land, or (2) compensate landowners for their voluntary provision of conservation measures on their land. We analyse in a conceptual ecological-economic simulation four different conservation site selection strategies in either of the two governance modes. Afterwards, we investigate the ecological and economic effectiveness of each governance-mode-strategy combination in a climatically changing environment, and in particular the influence of climate change characteristics. We show that the choice of the two governance modes and four patch selection strategies influences the cost-effectiveness of the implementation, generally suggesting that buying land, combined with the a species targeting patch selection strategy generates the highest cost-effectiveness.
    Keywords: agri-environment scheme; biodiversity; conservation payments; cost-effectiveness; land acquisition; make-or-buy decision; payments for environmental services; modes of governance
    JEL: Q19 Q54 Q57 Q58
    Date: 2020–03–10
  2. By: Henning Hansen (KU - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet)
    Abstract: The agricultural treadmill describes how technological advances create productivity gains for the benefit of progressive farmers, but where the result is also increased supply, falling prices, economic problems for laggard farmers and thus the need for new achievements in technology. In order to escape from this treadmill, farmers are trying to differentiate and diversify into new more attractive segments. Agro-tourism and organic agriculture are examples of differentiation. The elements and processes in the treadmill are described and supported by empirical time series. Possibilities of delaying or stopping the treadmill are discussed. The question is raised whether organic farming is able to escape the treadmill. The question is answered from both a theoretical and an empirical point of view. The empirical analysis is based on examples from Danish agriculture, which has a significant organic agricultural production. The conclusion is, that the structural and productivity developments and the price trends-which are important elements in the treadmill-are almost identical in the organic and conventional agriculture.
    Keywords: Treadmill,organic agriculture,differentiation,productivity,Blue Ocean
    Date: 2020–11–30
  3. By: Gilbert, Rachel; Benson, Todd; Ecker, Olivier
    Abstract: This paper provides an updated analysis of the dietary patterns of Malawian households and their consumption of select nutrients - calories, protein, iron, vitamin A, zinc, and folate - using data from the third (2010/11) and fourth (2016/17) rounds of the Malawi Integrated Household Survey (IHS). Changes in food and nutrient consumption patterns between the two survey periods are examined across household wealth categories and across regions. Dietary diversity and patterns of food and nutrient consumption are found to differ significantly between rural and urban areas. Whereas urban households largely saw slightly increased or stable nutrient consumption between 2010/11 and 2016/17, most households in rural areas saw declines over this period. We also document small shifts in the relative amounts of foods consumed over this six-year period in both rural and urban households, with increased consumption of fish and pulses, legumes, and nuts, and decreases in meat, fruit, dairy, and root and tuber consumption. The contribution of animal-source foods as a share of total protein consumption remains low at between 10 and 20 percent, depending on the region, with the overall share of protein from animal-source foods falling slightly between the two surveys. With regards to adequacy of household diets for meeting nutrient requirements, in the absence of nutrient supplementation, many individuals will be subject to iron, vitamin A, and folate inadequacies. Of particular concern, the poorest households have very low nutrient consumption per person and have diets that rely on only a few foods from a small number of food groups. For all six nutrients, nationally just over half of the total amount of nutrient consumed came from food that was purchased. While we would expect this for urban households, even for rural households more than half of all calories and protein consumed came from foods that were purchased. For micronutrients consumed by rural households, between 40 and 50 percent came from purchased foods. While in the past, own production of food may have provided most Malawian households with most of the nutrients they consumed, this is no longer the case. For most Malawian households, including in rural communities, their food security and dietary nutritional needs now are equally tied to the market as to their own farming, if not more so. Drawing lessons from the analysis here for improving the food consumption data collected in the IHS surveys, more detailed and further disaggregated data would be beneficial, particularly to help estimate nutrients derived from fortified and processed foods. Additional information on how food is shared within households would also allow for a better understanding of nutrient inadequacies at the individual level. Collecting more information on the content of the meals that household members eat away from home would also be helpful in removing some uncertainty in the nutrient consumption estimates made from the data. Finally, additional information on food gifts received could clarify aspects of household coping strategies, the performance of formal social safety nets, and food choice.
    Keywords: MALAWI, SOUTHERN AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, diet, nutrition, nutrient deficiency, human nutrition, human nutrition research, nutrients, food consumption, households, nutrient intake, food access, trace elements, diet change, nutrition intake, dietary diversity, nutrient supplementation,
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Stukach, Victor; Saparova, Gulnar; Sultanova, Guzel; Saginova, Saniya
    Abstract: The article presents the main trends in the indicators of infrastructure development of the agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The dependence of agricultural production volumes on the development of social and transport infrastructure is studied. The mutual influence of infrastructure institutions on the dynamics of agricultural production development is shown. The study showed that the development of social and production infrastructure of agriculture in Kazakhstan remains unstable. This circumstance creates prerequisites for the implementation of a negative scenario in the development of rural areas. Shortcomings in the formation of rural infrastructure can lead to inhibition of reproduction processes in the agricultural sector, which will negatively affect the provision of the country's population with products from agricultural raw materials. The article substantiates the position that the formation and development of infrastructure in the agricultural sector is a necessary condition for effective interaction of subjects of main and auxiliary production, which contributes to the formation of general prerequisites for the development of agriculture. The results of the study can be used by the state in the process of developing and implementing agricultural policy, taken into account when investing in social, transport and industrial development of the village.
    Keywords: agricultural products, food security, agriculture, infrastructure, social infrastructure, rural population, investment attractiveness.
    JEL: O3 O31 O32 Q1 Q13 Q18
    Date: 2019–06
  5. By: Eduardo Ribeiro; Adelina Gschwandter; Cesar Revoredo-Giha
    Abstract: Chicken meat consumption has increased substantially in the last decades due to farming and processing intensification and due to perceived health and environmental benefits for consumers. Organic chicken additionally, is perceived to have better taste, lead to higher animal welfare and additional benefits for the environment. Thus understanding consumers' preferences for organic chicken is central for policy-making and market strategies that can shape this market in the future. This paper uses a comprehensive data set of scanned shoppings from UK consumers, to show that they are willing to pay an average premium of 135% for the organic attribute in the case of chicken. In addition, this paper contributes to the literature of environmental valuation, demonstrating that household characteristics can be used as instruments into a GMM approach to a hedonic price model, to address the endogeneity issues usually ignored in this literature.
    Keywords: Hedonic Pricing Method; Instrumental Variables; Organic Food
    JEL: C26 Q18 Q51
    Date: 2019–12
  6. By: Christiaensen,Luc; Rutledge,Zachariah Judson; Taylor,J. Edward
    Abstract: As countries develop (and food saturation takes hold), agriculture's role as domestic employer declines. But the broader agri-food system also expands, and the scope for agriculture-related job creation shifts beyond the farm. Historically, technological revolutions have shaped and been shaped by these dynamics. Today, a digital revolution is taking hold, affecting agricultural labor and skill demands. In this process, societies evolve from having a surplus to a shortage of domestic farm labor, typically met largely by foreign agricultural wage workers. Yet, anti-immigration sentiments are flying high in migrant-destination countries, and robots in the fields and packing plants offer an alternative. Agricultural trade may be similarly challenged. In the world's poorest countries, particularly in Africa, labor productivity in agriculture remains at historically low levels. So, what can the role of agriculture as a source of employment be in the future? This viewpoint elaborates on these trends and reviews several policy options, including inclusive value chain development, better immigration policies, social insurance schemes, and ramp up in agricultural education and extension.
    Date: 2020–03–24
  7. By: Mulungu, Kelvin; Ng'ombe, John (Oklahoma State University)
    Abstract: Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the commonly grown grain crops and remains a source of staple food and food security for most countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). But climate change threatens agricultural potential in SSA thereby risking food security especially that most maize production is rain-fed in these countries. Thus, numerous studies have examined impacts of climate change on maize production and productivity resulting in several adaption strategies being promoted to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. But to the best of our knowledge, there has not been any studies in literature that provide a review of impacts of climate change on maize production and productivity in SSA. This chapter therefore provides a review of empirical climate change impacts on maize production and its productivity in SSA. We chose SSA because most countries in SSA are underdeveloped and therefore more vulnerable to climate change effects. This is important because this review will provide an easier access of such results for both scholars and policy makers in search of empirical impacts of climate change on maize production and productivity in SSA.
    Date: 2019–11–29
  8. By: Dietrich, Stephan (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Schmerzeck, Georg (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University)
    Abstract: Cash transfers have become a key policy tool to protect vulnerable populations from malnutrition. Ample evidence shows these programs to have positive impacts on nominal food consumption expenditure. However, with rising food prices, nominal impacts might systematically differ from real impacts. We analyze the effects of Kenya's Hunger Safety Net Program on food demand during a drastic price shock. We find that the impact on nominal food expenditures overstates the impact measured at constant prices. Two factors explain this result: Firstly, households spend most of the transfer on food irrespective of prices, thus increasing losses due to the price shock in absolute terms. Secondly, shifting expenditure towards food categories more strongly affected by the price shock leads to disproportional real losses among treated households. Structural changes in demand associated with transfer modalities account for up to half of the loss in real food expenditures compared to control households.
    Keywords: Cash transfers, Food prices, Demand, Social protection, Kenya
    JEL: D12 I38 O12 Q11
    Date: 2020–02–05
  9. By: John Gibson (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: Conflicts over natural resources are common in developing countries, due to poorly defined property rights and limited state capacity for preventing conflict and because environmental incomes matter more to livelihoods than in rich countries. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), for example, the subject of the current study, almost one-quarter of households had land disputes in the previous 12 months, with disputes over agricultural and forestry resources, over development projects, and tribal fighting also frequently experienced. About seven percent of the land disputes and 40 percent of the tribal fights resulted in deaths. In this paper, geo referenced household survey data on disputes and conflicts, and remote sensing observations on forest losses in the local area over the prior ten years are used to show the frequency of conflict over natural resources, the distributional incidence of this conflict – whether rich or poor areas are more at risk – and the effect of large-scale environmental change, specifically deforestation, on the subsequent risk of conflict. A sharp increase in log exports, which saw PNG become the largest exporter to China as other countries withdrew from the tropical logs trade, represents an exogenous shock that helps to identify effects of deforestation on conflict rather than the reverse relationship.
    Keywords: conflict; deforestation; household survey; land resources; Papua New Guinea
    JEL: Q34 Q56
    Date: 2020–03–30
  10. By: Pierre Mérel; Ariel Ortiz-Bobea; Emmanuel Paroissien
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence of large welfare losses associated with asymmetric information about product quality in a competitive market. When consumers cannot observe product characteristics at the time of purchase, atomistic producers have no incentive to supply costly quality. We compare wine prices across administrative districts around the enactment of historic regulations aimed at certifying the quality of more than 250 French appellation wines to identify welfare losses from asymmetric information. We estimate that these losses represent up to 13% of total market value, suggesting an important role for credible certification schemes.
    Keywords: asymmetric information, adverse selection, quality uncertainty, welfare, wine appellation
    JEL: D82 N54 Q18
    Date: 2020
  11. By: Ochieng, Dennis O.; Botha, Rosemary; Baulch, Bob
    Abstract: Small farmers and traders often lack the market information they need to earn the most from their crop sales. This paper analyzes the effects of an action research experiment in central Malawi, in which four groups of smallholder farmers were provided with maize and soybean price information from a local commodity exchange during the 2019 marketing season, while four other groups of smallholder farmers did not receive this information. Using data from a panel survey of 399 farmers and 78 traders conducted before and after the main marketing season and using kernel propensity score matching approach to account for possible differences between the treated and non-treated farmers, we estimate the effects of the intervention on a number of outcome indicators. A before versus after analysis was also employed to evaluate changes in traders’ marketing outcomes. We find positive but statistically insignificant effects on maize and soybean selling prices, sales through structured markets and levels of commercialization after the intervention. We also find a negative and statistically significant effect on the quantity of maize sold by farmers, suggesting paradoxically that providing farmers with price information reduced their sales volumes. The proportion of traders aware of structured markets and their share of sales through structured markets also increased significantly after the intervention. The quantity of maize sold by traders as well as the selling prices for maize and soy-bean also increased significantly, although this may be due to factors other than the intervention. The study concludes that provision of price information alone is not enough to facilitate small farmers’ and traders’ use of structured markets. Greater effort is needed to sensitize farmers and traders on the quality and quantity requirements as well as the operations of structured markets.
    Keywords: MALAWI, SOUTHERN AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, maize, farmers, prices, food prices, markets, information, retail prices, soybeans, traders, price information,
    Date: 2020
  12. By: Jacques LOYAT
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2020–03–28
  13. By: William Ginn (FAU - Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg); Marc Pourroy (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers)
    Abstract: Food price subsidies are a prevalent means by which fiscal authorities may counteract food price volatility in middle-income countries (MIC). We develop a DSGE model for a MIC that captures this key channel of a policy induced price smoothing mechanism that is different to, yet in parallel with, the classic Calvo price stickiness approach, which can have consequential effects for monetary policy. We then use the model to address how the joint fiscal and monetary policy responds to an increase in inflation driven by a food price shock can affect welfare. We show that, in the presence of credit constrained households and households with a significant share of food expenditures , a coordinated reaction of fiscal and monetary policies via subsidized price targeting can improve aggregate welfare. Subsidies smooth prices and consumption, especially for credit constrained households, which can consequently result in an interest rate reaction less intensely with subsidized price targeting compared with headline price targeting.
    Keywords: DSGE Model,Food subsidies,Monetary Policy,Fiscal Policy,Subsidies,Commodities,Middle income countries
    Date: 2019–09
  14. By: M. Picard,Pierre; Selod,Harris
    Abstract: As cities grow and spatially expand, agricultural land is converted into residential land. In many developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, this process is accompanied by a change in land tenure, whereby plots held under traditional customary arrangements are sold to new urban residents, possibly with formal property rights. This paper studies joint land-use and land-tenure conversion in an urban economics model in which intermediaries purchase agricultural land from customary owners and attempt to transform it into residential plots with statutory property rights. The spatial equilibrium includes a mix of land uses and rights where statutory and non-statutory residential plots coexist with customary land that is mainly used for agriculture. Because customary ownership is subject to uncertainty (because of tenure insecurity), the conversion process includes a potential information asymmetry between customary owners and intermediaries. The analysis shows that a market failure may emerge whereby some customary owners prefer to continue farming their land rather than participate in the urban residential land market, which results in a city that is too small. Empirical analysis using Malian data validates the key features of the model captured by land price gradients, as well as the ranking and the variance of land prices, and is suggestive of the presence of information asymmetry.
    Date: 2020–03–23
  15. By: Mignamissi, Dieudonné
    Abstract: This paper tests the pollution emissions and institutions quality nexus in Africa, through political regime and governance indicators. We apply the system GMM estimator on a dynamic panel of 50 African countries over the period 1990-2014. The key finding suggests that a reinforcement of legislation through the improvement of institutional quality has a negative and significant effect on pollution emissions. Moreover, the findings validate the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Africa. The results call for some policy recommendations in environmental regulation for African economies, including strengthening of institutional quality, adoption of specialized investment promotion agencies on the attractiveness of green FDI, implementation of incentive mechanisms in favour of companies that have adopted greening program of their activities
    Keywords: Pollution emissions, institutions, Africa
    JEL: Q52 Q56
    Date: 2020–03
  16. By: Gilbert Mbara (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: Primary commodity prices are generally determined in dual markets: a physical--spot market dominated by supplier--producers and a forward--futures market where consumers, producers and speculators interact. While the futures market operates on an almost continuous basis, the spot market only opens in predetermined short periods of time over which the state of supply and demand is revealed. This poses a challenge for the question of price dynamics: which market leads/follows and where does price discovery occur? We perform an empirical analysis using spot and futures coffee prices and find that most price information originates from the futures markets. Shocks to the spot price are quickly integrated into the market prices, with the effect of the shock quickly dying out or a new equilibrium being attained. A shock to the futures price almost always leads to a permanent change in prices leading to a new equilibrium.
    Keywords: Price transmission, futures markets, VECM, Cointegrated VARMA
    JEL: C5 C51 C58 C32 E32
    Date: 2020
  17. By: , Stone Center (The Graduate Center/CUNY); Mijatović, Boško; Milanovic, Branko
    Abstract: The paper presents the first estimate of the welfare ratio for Serbia using the 19th and early 20th century data on wages of skilled and unskilled workers (including the part paid in kind) and prices of goods that enter into “subsistence” and “respectability” consumption baskets. It finds a stagnation of unskilled wage close to the welfare ratio of 1, and a modest increase in skilled wage. The paper introduces several adjustments to conventional methodology in order to make it more relevant for predominantly agricultural societies. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)
    Date: 2020–03–10
  18. By: Claire Alestra (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole Centrale, AMSE, Marseille, France); Gilbert Cette (Banque de France and Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole Centrale, AMSE); Valérie Chouard (Banque de France); Rémy Lecat (Banque de France)
    Abstract: This paper provides a tool to build climate change scenarios to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP), modelling both GDP damage due to climate change and the GDP impact of mitigating measures. It adopts a supply-side, long-term view, with 2060 and 2100 horizons. It is a global projection tool (30 countries / regions), with assumptions and results both at the world and the country / regional level. Five different types of energy inputs are taken into account according to their CO2 emission factors. Full calibration is possible at each stage, with estimated or literature-based default parameters. In particular, Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which is a major source of uncertainty on future growth and hence on CO2 emissions, is endogenously determined, with a rich modeling encompassing energy prices, investment prices, education, structural reforms and decreasing return to the employment rate. We present four scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU), with stable energy prices relative to GDP price; Decrease of Renewable Energy relative Price (DREP), with the relative price of non CO2 emitting electricity decreasing by 2% a year; Low Carbon Tax (LCT) scenario with CO2 emitting energy relative prices increasing by 1% per year; High Carbon Tax (HCT) scenario with CO2 emitting energy relative prices increasing by 3% per year. At the 2100 horizon, global GDP incurs a loss of 12% in the BAU, 10% in the DREP, 8% in the Low Carbon Tax scenario and 7% in the High Carbon Tax scenario. This scenario exercise illustrates both the "tragedy of the horizon", as gains from avoided climate change damage net of damage from mitigating policies are negative in the medium-term and positive in the long-term, and the "tragedy of the commons", as climate change damage is widely dispersed and particularly severe in developing economies, while mitigating policies should be implemented in all countries, especially in advanced countries modestly affected by climate change but with large CO2 emission contributions.
    Keywords: climate, global warming, energy prices, government policy, growth, productivity, long-term projections
    JEL: H23 Q54 E23 E37 O11 O47 O57 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2020–03
  19. By: Stella Apostolaki; Ebun Akinsete (ICRE8); Phoebe Koundouri; Panagiotis Samartzis
    Abstract: Freshwater ecosystems, whether surface, groundwater or in the form of ice caps are fundamental for human life and for supporting the vast biodiversity, natural processes and cycling. They provide ecosystem services, thus, benefits for humans and their societies obtained from nature, in all four categories: provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting. The importance of sustaining ecosystem integrity via protecting the ecosystem services, is undeniable. However, it comprises a big challenge provided the human-induced degradation of the natural environment that, in turn, affects the earth�s natural capital: natural resources, associated services with the supporting processes.
    Keywords: Biodiversity,Ecosystem services, Ecosystem-based approach,Freshwater, Groundwater, Human well-being, Ice caps Natural processes, Surface water, Threats
    Date: 2019–01
  20. By: Aimée Aguilar Jaber (OECD); Brilé Anderson (OECD); Daniel Nachtigall (OECD); Fatoumata Ngom (OECD)
    Abstract: The Paris Agreement invites signatory countries to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). This report compares the experience of three developed countries that have communicated LT-LEDS within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): France (Stratégie National Bas-Carbone), Germany (Klimaschutzplan 2050) and the United Kingdom (Clean Growth Strategy). The report analyses the three stages of the LT-LEDS process in detail: a) the institutional and technical process to create the LT-LEDS; b) the document strategy resulting from the process; and c) the design of specific mechanisms to facilitate implementation of the LT-LEDS. While LT-LEDS will reflect countries own "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances", it is hoped that the lessons and messages included in this report can be useful to other developed and developing countries interested in creating and implementing LT-LEDS.
    Keywords: Climate Change, LT-LEDS, Paris Agreement, UNFCCC
    JEL: H23 O44 Q01 Q52 Q54 Q56 Q58 R11
    Date: 2020–04–02
  21. By: Mercedes Campi; Alessandro Nuvolari
    Abstract: This paper revises and updates the Campi-Nuvolari index of intellectual property protection for plant varieties (Campi and Nuvolari, 2015). The new index has been updated and provides yearly scores for the period 1961-2018 for a total number of 104 countries, which have legislation on plant variety protection in force. The new evidence highlights the tendency towards more similar and stronger systems of intellectual property rights (IPRs) worldwide, regardless of individual characteristics of countries. The signing of the TRIPS and of trade agreements with TRIPS-Plus provisions are major drivers of this process. In addition, certain features of countries such as the regulatory environment, the level of human capital, the importance of agricultural production, and openness to trade, are also significant determinants of the evolution of IPRs systems. We conclude discussing other possible applications of the data.
    Keywords: Intellectual property rights; Plant breeders' rights; Patents; Agricultural development; International comparison.
    Date: 2020–03–25
  22. By: Ewen Gallic (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Gauthier Vermandel (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, France Stratégie, Services du Premier Ministre)
    Abstract: How much do weather shocks matter? The literature addresses this question in two isolated ways: either by looking at long-term effects through the prism of calibrated theoretical models, or by focusing on both short and long terms through the lens of empirical models. We propose a framework that reconciles these two approaches by taking the theory to the data in two complementary ways. We first document the propagation mechanism of a weather shock using a Vector Auto-Regressive model on New Zealand Data. To explain the mechanism, we build and estimate a general equilibrium model with a weather-dependent agricultural sector to investigate the weather's business cycle implications. We find that weather shocks: (i) explain about 35% of GDP and agricultural output fluctuations in New Zealand; (ii) entail a welfare cost of 0.30% of permanent consumption; (iii) critically increases the macroeconomic volatility under climate change, resulting in a higher welfare cost peaking to 0.46% in the worst case scenario of climate change.
    Keywords: Agriculture,Business Cycles,Climate Change,Weather Shocks
    Date: 2020
  23. By: Haile, Kaleab (UNU-MERIT); Tirivayi, Nyasha (UNU-MERIT); Nillesen, Eleonora (UNU-MERIT, and SBE, Maastricht University)
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of drought on child health and schooling outcomes and investigates the contemporaneous relationship between these two main building blocks of human capital. We merge childlevel longitudinal data from the Ethiopia Rural Socioeconomic Survey (ERSS) with geo-referenced climate data. Our findings from within-child variation estimators reveal that drought has a detrimental impact on the highest grade completed of female children. We show that the negative effect of drought on a female child's completed years of formal schooling is channelled, albeit not entirely, through ill health. Our result is robust to using recursive bivariate estimation with exclusion restriction to correct for biases associated with the endogeneity of child health due to time-varying heterogeneities. Gender bias in the household explains why the direct and mediated schooling e ects of drought are concentrated only on female children. We find that households respond to drought-induced income shocks by decreasing the allocation of resources for the medical treatment of an ill female child. Moreover, households also increase the use of female child labour for non-agricultural activities, which is consistent with a disproportionate increase in school absenteeism of older girls during drought. We discuss how gender-responsive policy design and implementation may help alleviate gender inequality in human development in the face of climate change.
    Keywords: Drought, coping capacity, human capital, human development, gender bias, sub-Saharan Africa, Ethiopia
    JEL: D13 I31 J16 O15 Q54
    Date: 2019–12–31
  24. By: Xiang Wu (HUST - Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan]); Bin Hu (HUST - Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan]); Jie Xiong (ESC Rennes School of Business)
    Abstract: We examine heterogeneous consumer preferences in Chinese milk markets. Using a discrete choice experiment, we examine how the brand, quality certification, traceability label and price influence consumers' milk choices. We identify four consumer segments using a latent class model: price conscious (9.8%), balanced thinking (19.8%), health conscious (57.5%), and environment conscious (12.9%) consumers. These four segments have distinct preferences: price conscious consumers prefer green certification; balanced thinking consumers have the highest willingness to pay for traceability labels; health conscious consumers have strong brand awareness; and environment conscious consumers prefer organic certification and traceability labels and use price as a quality signal. Such diversity of consumer preference can be explained by four psychological factors: price consciousness, food safety concerns, health consciousness and environmental concerns.
    Keywords: Heterogeneous preference,psychological factors,milk consumption,latent class model,choice experiment,China
    Date: 2020
  25. By: Ebun Akinsete (ICRE8); Stella Apostolaki; Osiel Gonzalez Davila; Amerissa Giannouli; Stavros Gavroglou; Alice Guittard (ICRE8); Phoebe Koundouri; Eleftherios Levantis; Elisavet Mouslech; Vasileios Pergamalis; Nikitas Pittis (University of Piraeus, Greece); Dimitrios Reppas; Vassilis Skianis; Ioannis Souliotis; Stella Tsani (Athens University of Economics and Business)
    Date: 2019–01
  26. By: Chikowi, Christopher T. M.; Ochieng, Dennis O.; Jumbe, Charles B. L.
    Abstract: Despite concerted efforts to develop the fisheries sector in many developing countries, fish demand remains poorly understood due to weak and fragmented domestic markets, particularly in Africa south of the Sahara. An important area that affects the development of the fishery sector is limited understanding of how the choice between different fish products is affected by the socioeconomic characteristics of consumers, marketing factors and fish-specific attributes. Previous studies in Malawi have assessed consumer choice and demand for fish in general, without considering species-specific consumer choices. This paper analyzes consumer choices and demand for two species of tilapia, Lake Malawi Oreochromis (Nyasalapia) spp. (Ny) and Oreochromis shiranus (Os), in unprocessed and processed form, in urban Malawi. We use data collected from a sample of 584 urban households in Malawi’s two major cities, Blantyre and Lilongwe. Multivariate probit and seemingly unrelated regression models are employed to analyze the correlates of consumer choice and demand for tilapia products. Even though most consumers chose farmed tilapia (Os) over the wild tilapia (Ny), our results indicate trade-offs in choice but complementarities in demand for unprocessed and processed tilapia products. We find that the correlates of choice are not the same as correlates of demand for tilapia products. This is explained by heterogenous consumer profiles, market conditions, and tilapia trait descriptors. Developing robust tilapia value chains requires exploiting these complementarities and trade-offs, policy support to boost tilapia production, and reducing its relative caloric price to consumers. These measures will contribute to increased consumer demand. More generally fish breeding programs should also link breeding objectives to consumer choices and demand for fisheries’ products, particularly considering rarely examined fish at-tributes such as its nutritive value and body texture.
    Keywords: MALAWI, SOUTHERN AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, fisheries, aquaculture, tilapia, trade, supply chain, fish farms, urban areas, fishery data, markets, consumer choice, complementarities, trade-offs,
    Date: 2019
  27. By: Athanassios Papageorgiou
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2020–03–28
  28. By: Hugo Herrera; Birgit Kopainsky
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management
    Date: 2020–03–30
  29. By: Shivani Gupta (Jawaharlal Nehru University); Sangeeta Bansal (Jawaharlal Nehru University)
    Abstract: Diabetes prevalence has escalated in India during the recent decades. The recent nutritional transition brought about by the rapid emergence of overnutrition may have a relationship with the growing diabetes problem in India. This paper examines the causal effect of an increase in body mass index on the likelihood of suffering from diabetes using an individual level data from National Family Health Survey for the year 2015-16. The study uses two alternative indicators for measuring diabetes – self-reported diabetes status and blood glucose levels (ordinal measure). The novel contribution of the study is that it takes into account the role played by unobserved genetic and other related factors in the determination of the relationship between body mass index and diabetes status of an individual by instrumenting individual’s body mass index with a non-biologically related household member’s body mass index. The results show that the likelihood of being diabetic is three times among the overweight and obese individuals as compared to the non-overweight individuals.
  30. By: Gupta, Urvi; Qureshi, Qamar; Kumar, Nishant
    Abstract: 1. Inductive generalisations based on folk perceptions for animals complement anthropogenic impacts that affect non-human species in myriad ways. Despite the surge in research on urban ecosystems, there is a poor understanding of the importance of human perceptions that affect animal-guilds subsisting on urban food-subsidies. 2. We studied the cultural salience of representative commensal avian species that opportunistically thrive on anthropogenic resources and religious sentiments translating in ritual feeding in Delhi. We investigated people’s perceptions of representative avian scavengers, to understand the importance citizens attributed to their ecosystem services. We anticipated homogenising urban impacts over folk perceptions people registered for species-specific-interactions in tropical megacities. For this, we explored the prevalence of people-scavenger interactions or experiences represented in local terminology/folk taxonomy and systematics about black kites Milvus migrans, house crows Corvus splendens, and critically endangered vultures. 3. Folk perceptions varied across various stakeholders and were based on bird morphology and behaviour, and corresponding socio-cultural legends. People have coexisted with opportunistic scavengers, long before the advent of Linnaean systematics, implying a dynamic relationship under the purview of biocultural coevolution. Additionally, cultural values for these commensals, evident in ritual feeding practices, were crucial for the prevalence of inductive characterization, zoomorphism, and anthropomorphism. 4. The social-technological impacts on folk perceptions for animals we associate with rapid urban changes can potentially affect the political ecologies urban human-animal interface. Mediatisation and misinformation can mimetically evolve the existing trade-offs, pertinent to the human patronage and the practice of harnessing informal garbage-consumption by companion animals that are the culprit of conflicts and diseases. Frequently reported affective relationships of Indians for animals varied across the stakeholders likely due to urban-sprawl, demographic parameters, refuse management, and religio-cultural folktales. 5. Individually, scientific approaches lack scope concerning the scale of evidence for instinctive animal responses to the diverse, inductive folk practices of native stakeholders. Expansion of the purview of citizen science that factors integration of human socio-cultural estimates within scientific studies is, therefore, vital for human-animal coexistence. We suggest conservation implications of local and indigenous perception pathways about backyard biodiversity and rapidly homogenizing biophilic relationships in megacities.
    Date: 2020–03–12
  31. By: Jinggang Guo; Craig M.T. Johnston
    Abstract: We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States. The benefits of trade liberalization are widely acknowledged, including better home-to-foreign price transmission due to reduced tariffs and lower trade costs between countries. Yet in recent years we see efforts to protect specific domestic groups, including producers, through a revival of protectionist trade policies. Such policies could improve the home-to-home price transmission across domestic markets as consumers may seek lower-cost alternatives domestically. We investigate these ideas using a bi-variate threeregime threshold vector error-correction model (TVECM) to examine the spatial price transmission between Canadian and U.S. markets and within U.S. domestic markets. We do that by introducing a structural break at the start of an effective free trade period within our sample. The results suggest that duty-free treatment for imported Canadian softwood lumber substantially lowers the transaction costs between the two nations. Prices are more easily transmitted from the Canadian market to the U.S. at a higher speed, but the speed of price transmission in the reverse direction is not statistically significant. The U.S. domestic market experienced a higher speed of price adjustment across domestic regions prior to the free trade period, which provides evidence that protectionist policies lead to better domestic market integration.
    Keywords: International topics; Market structure and pricing; Trade integration
    JEL: F13 Q17
    Date: 2020–03
  32. By: Samuel Egbetokun (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Evans S. Osabuohien (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Temidayo Akinbobola (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria); Olaronke Onanuga (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Obindah Gershon (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Victoria Okafor (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria)
    Abstract: The interaction between environmental pollution and economic growth determines the achievement of the green growth objective of developing economies. An economy turns around the inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) when pollution is effectively dampened by social, political and economic factors as such economy grows. Thus, this study examines the EKC considering the impact of institutional quality on six variables of environmental pollution [carbon dioxide (CO2), Nitrous Oxide (N2O), Suspended Particulate Maters (SPM), Rainfall, Temperature and Total Green House Emission (TGH)] using the case of Nigeria. The EKC model includes population density, education expenditure, foreign direct investment, and gross domestic investment as control variables, and it was analysed using the Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) econometric technique, which has not been applied in the literature on Nigeria. The results, inter alia, indicate that there is EKC for CO2 and SPM. This implies that the green growth objective can be pursued in Nigeria with concerted efforts. Other environmental pollution indicators did not exert significant influence on economic growth. Therefore, it is recommended that Nigeria’s institutional quality be strengthened to limit environmental pollution in light of economic growth.
    Keywords: EKC, Economic Growth, Environmental Pollution, Institutional Quality
    JEL: C52 O38 O40 O55 P37
    Date: 2019–01
  33. By: Partha Sen
    Abstract: Macroeconomics deals with economics at the aggregate level. This could be at a national level or the interaction between nations. Production of output necessarily involves pollution and degrading the environment. Therefore, environmental issues enter inevitably. Some problems that have been highlighted in the literature are surveyed here. It has been argued that a poor country deliberately lowers its environmental standards that enables it to steal jobs from other countries. What is the theoretical underpinning and the evidence for this assertion? The evidence is very weak in support of this. Also, in the fight against climate change, the poorer countries claim exemption from tightening their emissions norms, because of their poverty. Although equity demands this, it could pose serious challenges to fighting climate change – oil producers would pump oil faster, if they foresee it becoming useless. A piecemeal approach is thus infeasible. A more basic question is how to introduce natural resource use in national income accounts to give meaning to the notion of sustainability? National income accounts do not take into account non-market activities. Some progress has been made in the theory and empirical implementation of sustainability by including non-market activities. A lot of work has been done but a lot more still needs to be done here.
    Keywords: macroeconomics and environment, trade and environment, green paradox, genuine saving, comprehensive wealth
    JEL: Q50 F10 F20
    Date: 2020
  34. By: Ochieng, Dennis O.; Botha, Rosemary; Baulch, Bob
    Abstract: Seasonal analysis of the structure, conduct, and performance (SCP) of markets for staple crops has received relatively little attention in food policy analysis yet it has important implications for food and nutrition security. This study employs a mixed methods approach to analyze the SCP of maize markets in Malawi in the 2018/19 main harvest and lean seasons. We interviewed 749 traders from 74 markets across 8 districts, held 28 focus group discussions (FGD) with a total of 480 farmers and analyzed daily and weekly price data from 13 regional markets. The structure of maize markets was explored by examining marketing channels, barriers to entry and the competitiveness of different tiers of the marketing chain. Inequality in sales revenues, switches in trader types between seasons, quality and weights standardization, and the behavior of traders were used to examine market conduct. Performance was assessed by examining traders’ costs and margins, and the spatial and temporal integration of maize markets. We find that Malawi’s maize market is pyramidal in structure and highly competitive at lower tiers of trade but ‘oligopolistic’ at higher tiers. The market channels vary across seasons with switches between trader types and instances of rural-urban trade reversals. There is considerable inequality of sales revenues among traders of similar capacities, and a widespread lack of structured trading despite existing institutions. A high ratio of marketing costs to revenue suggests marketing inefficiencies. Malawi maize prices were highly seasonal and more volatile than neighboring countries. In contrast to previous studies, our findings show weak spatial integration of markets and slow price adjustments to long-run equilibrium values even among short-distance market pairs. The study highlights five pathways to improving Malawi’s maize marketing system: (1) increased policy predictability to promote private-sector investment; (2) institutionalization of quality grades and standardization of weights and measures; (3) increased commercialization of smallholder maize production; (4) investment in enabling infrastructure; and (5) the promotion of structured trading.
    Keywords: MALAWI, SOUTHERN AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, maize, farmers, prices, retail prices, food prices, structure-conduct-performance, small traders, maize markets, maize traders, maize prices, price seasonality,
    Date: 2019
  35. By: Joseph I. Uduji (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Elda N. Okolo-Obasi (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: Fertilizer use in Nigeria is estimated at 13 kg/ha, which is far below the 200 kg/ha recommended by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The objective of this investigation was to identify the determinant factors of farmers’ participation in the Nigeria’s growth enhancement support scheme (GESS). In addition, we determined the impact of the GESS on fertilizer use in rural areas. One thousand, two hundred rural farmers were sampled across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Results from the use of recursive bivariate probit model indicated that GESS significantly impacted on the access and usage of fertilizer among the rural farmers; and that contact with extension agents, ownership of mobile phones, power for charging phone batteries, value output, mobile network coverage, ability to read and write were positive determinants of rural farmers participation in the GESS; whereas increased distance to registration and collection centers, and cultural constraints to married women reduced farmers’ tendency to participate in the GESS. The findings suggest that farmers’ participation in the GESS is a critical factor for raising fertilizer use in Nigeria. This implies that food security in sub-Saharan Africa can be achieved by increasing the participation of rural farmers in the growth enhancement support scheme.
    Keywords: Growth Enhancement Support Scheme, Fertilizer Use, Rural Farmers, Recursive Bivariate Probit Model, Nigeria.
    JEL: O13 Q1 N27
    Date: 2019–01
  36. By: Sterenn Lucas; Louis-Georges Soler; Etienne Rouvin
    Abstract: The French seafood sector is currently confronted with increasing competition from imported products, price fluctuations and new challenges such as environmental issues. In the face of these issues, producers may not be able to meet consumer expectations, and new products intended to boost growth in the seafood sector may not succeed. To clarify the drivers of competitiveness in the seafood sector, a greater understanding of the success factors behind seafood innovation is needed. We use an original database obtained from the merger of two databases. We combine Mintel’s Global New Products Database, which identifies new products launched in France in 2010, 2011 and 2012, with consumption data spanning 2010 to 2014 from a household panel (Kantar). The data allow us to track the quantities of 246 new products purchased in the year after their launch. We run an ordered logit model to measure the impact of product, marketing and market variables on the probability of a product becoming successful. We identify three possibilities: success, i.e., the product is still on the market one year after its launch with an increased quantity; stagnation, i.e., the product is still on the market one year after its launch with a decreased quantity; and failure, i.e., the product is no longer on the market at all a year after its launch. We also run a Cox proportional hazards model with the products’ time on the market as the dependent variable. The model estimates the time that elapses before the product disappears. The results show that three kinds of factors influence competitiveness: firm characteristics (size, specialization), market economic situation and, to a lesser extent, the marketing process.
    Keywords: Innovation, measurement of success, seafood sector, ordered logit model, Cox model
    JEL: L1 Q31 L66 C25
    Date: 2020

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