|
on Agricultural Economics |
|
Issue of 2019‒04‒08
nineteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Christiane Heisse and Risa Morimoto (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of rainfall risk on fertiliser use by Tanzanian maize farmers using newly available spatially disaggregated agronomic survey data on Tanzanian maize producers. We show that fertiliser use is highly sensitive to rainfall risks. Our discussion embeds these findings into the wider debate around environmental sustainability and mineral fertilisers, thus relating directly to the country’s government efforts of climate mainstreaming into their (agricultural) policies. We conclude that chemical fertilisers are useful for agricultural productivity growth but that they should be used to supplement more economically and environmentally sustainable practices. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, fertilisers, sustainable development, Tanzania, Maize farmers, panel analysis |
| JEL: | Q10 Q15 Q56 R15 R28 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:217&r=all |
| By: | Laura Adubra (NutriPass - Nutrition et Alimentation des Populations aux Suds - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier, Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier, SU - Sorbonne Université); Mathilde Savy (NutriPass - Nutrition et Alimentation des Populations aux Suds - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier, Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier); Sonia Fortin (Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier, NutriPass - Nutrition et Alimentation des Populations aux Suds - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier); Yves Kameli (NutriPass - Nutrition et Alimentation des Populations aux Suds - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier, Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier); Niamké Ezoua Kodjo; Kamayera Fainke; Tanimoune Mahamadou; Agnès Le Port; Yves Martin-Prével (NutriPass - Nutrition et Alimentation des Populations aux Suds - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier, Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Background: The popularity of nutrition-sensitive interventions calls for high-quality monitoring and evaluation tools. In this context, the Minimum Dietary Diversity for Women of Reproductive Age (MDD-W), validated as a proxy of micronutrient adequacy, does fill a gap. However, because it is a newly endorsed indicator, information on its linkages with other dimensions of food and nutrition security is still scarce. Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate whether the MDD-W is related to household food insecurity and farm production diversity. Methods: A cross-sectional survey on a representative sample of 5046 women of reproductive age was conducted in the region of Kayes, Mali, in 2013. Dietary diversity was assessed through qualitative 24-h recall, and MDD-W was computed. MDD-W equaled 1 if the women consumed at least 5 different food groups and 0 otherwise. Food insecurity was measured using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale and the Household Hunger Scale (HHS), and a farm production diversity score (FPDS) was calculated based on a count of food crops/livestock groups produced. Logistic regressions were used to assess the relation between MDD-W and the indicators of household food security. Results: Only 27% of women reached the MDD-W. These women consumed animal source foods and/or vitamin A-rich vegetables and fruits more frequently than did other women. Women from extremely food insecure households (moderate to severe hunger according to the HHS) were less likely to reach the MDD-W (OR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.50, 0.97). One more group in the FPDS increased the odds of attaining the MDD-W (OR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.18). Conclusion: In the rural region of Kayes, Mali, women's dietary diversity, as measured by the MDD-W, was associated with household-level food security indicators. |
| Keywords: | household food security,farm production diversity,West Africa,women,dietary diversity,nutrition sensitive,rural |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02082572&r=all |
| By: | Duc Hong Vo (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Tan Ngoc Vu (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Anh The Vo (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain And Institute of Advanced Sciences Yokohama National University, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | The food-energy nexus has attracted great attention from policymakers, practitioners and academia since the food price crisis during the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and new policies that aim to increase ethanol production. This paper incorporates aggregate demand and alternative oil shocks to investigate the causal relationship between agricultural products and oil markets, which is a novel contribution. For the period January 2000 - July 2018, monthly spot prices of 15 commodities are examined, including Brent crude oil, biofuel-related agricultural commodities, and other agricultural commodities. The sample is divided into three sub-periods, namely: (i) January 2000 - July 2006; (ii) August 2006 - April 2013; and (iii) May 2013 - July 2018. The Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition technique are used to examine how the shocks to agricultural markets contribute to the variance of crude oil prices. The empirical findings from the paper indicate that not every oil shock contributes the same to agricultural price fluctuations, and similarly for the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the agricultural market. These results show that the crude oil market plays a major role in explaining fluctuations in the prices and associated volatility of agricultural commodities. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural commodity prices, Volatility, Crude oil prices, Structural Vector Autoregressive model, Impulse response functions, Decomposition. |
| JEL: | C32 C58 Q14 Q42 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1911&r=all |
| By: | Katsushi S. Imai (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan, and Department of Economics, The University of Manchester, UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of the transformation of the rural agricultural sector in achieving Sustainable Development Goals 1, 2 and 10 drawing upon the cross-country panel data over the past four decades for 105 developing countries. We define agricultural transformation by three different indices, namely, (i) the agricultural openness index – the share of agricultural export in agricultural value added of the country, (ii) the commercialization index - the share of processed agricultural products, fruits, green vegetables, and meats in all primary and processed agricultural products, and (iii) the product diversification index to capture the extent to which the country diversify the agricultural production. Drawing upon the dynamic panel model, we have found that transformation of the agricultural sector in terms of agricultural openness has increased the overall agricultural productivity and its growth and has consequently reduced national, rural and urban poverty significantly. Agricultural openness alleviates child malnutrition, namely underweight and stunting, and improves food security in terms of energy supply adequacy, protein supply, lack of food deficit and reduction of the prevalence of anaemia among pregnant women. The agricultural openness is negatively associated with the Gini coefficient at both national and subnational levels for both rural and urban areas. Except for Latin America, product diversification reduces agricultural productivity, implying the efficiency gains from economies of scale of fewer crops. On the other hand, the commercialisation does not generally increase the agricultural productivity and this may be related to a positive effect of the higher share of cereal production on productivity observed in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Policies improving the efficiency of agricultural production, for example through better rural infrastructure, or promoting agricultural exports, through regional economic integrations or reducing transaction costs such as tariff and non-tariff barriers, would help to achieve SDGs indirectly through the productivity improvement. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Transformation, Rural Transformation, Poverty, Inequality, Nutrition, Hunger, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) |
| JEL: | C23 I30 I14 O18 Q19 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2019-04&r=all |
| By: | Tawanda Chingozha (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Dieter von Fintel (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University and Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Agriculture plays a central role in the efforts to fight poverty and achieve economic growth. This is especially relevant in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where the majority of the population lives in rural areas. A key issue that is generally believed to unlock agriculture potential is the recognition of property rights through land titling, yet there is no overwhelming empirical evidence to support this in the case of SSA (Udry, 2011). This paper investigates access to markets as an important pre-condition for land titles to result in agricultural growth. Using the case of Southern Rhodesia, we investigate whether land titles incentivised African large-scale holders in the Native Purchase Areas (NPAs) to put more of their available land under cultivation than their counterparts in the overcrowded Tribal Trust Areas (TTAs). We create a novel dataset by applying a Support Vector Machine (SVM) learning algorithm on Landsat imagery for the period 1972 to 1984 - the period during which the debate on the nexus between land rights and agricultural production intensified. Our results indicate that land titles are only beneficial when farmers are located closer to main cities, main roads and rail stations or sidings. |
| Keywords: | land titling, access to markets, machine learning, remote sensing |
| JEL: | C81 N37 Q13 Q15 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers317&r=all |
| By: | Ghazalian, Pascal L.; Mosadegh Sedghy, Bahareh |
| Abstract: | There have been some important changes in Canada’s preferential trade network over the last few years. At the regional level, the re-negotiations over the NAFTA produced the generally-resembling USMCA. At the inter-regional level, the CETA and the CPTPP marked significant steps toward promoting Canada’s trade with distant countries. This paper overviews the corresponding regional and inter-regional trade preferences for agricultural products. It examines the welfare effects of the USMCA and more pronounced regional preferential schemes, and those of the CETA and the CPTPP for Canada in the agricultural markets. It assesses the welfare outcomes from different scenarios involving various combinations of presence and absence of regional and inter-regional trade preferences. The analysis underlines that the deepening of the North American market integration would lead to increases in national welfare. It shows that inter-regional trade preferences could exceed the USMCA/NAFTA in promoting imports in some cases, resulting in increases in Canada’s national welfare. However, inter-regional trade preferences may not entirely substitute for the losses in welfare resulting from the absence/elimination of regional trade preferences in some other cases. This paper suggests that Canada would generally benefit from higher national welfare levels across agricultural markets through a simultaneous network of regional and inter-regional trade preferences. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Trade; CETA; CPTPP; NAFTA; Preferential Trade Agreement; Trade Barriers; USMCA; Welfare |
| JEL: | F13 F15 Q17 |
| Date: | 2019–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92997&r=all |
| By: | Kym Anderson; Giulia Meloni; Johan Swinnen |
| Abstract: | For millennia alcoholic drinks have played an important role in food security and health (both positive and negative), but consumption patterns of beer, wine and spirits have altered substantially over the past two centuries. So too have their production technologies and industrial organization. Globalization and economic growth have contributed to considerable convergence in national alcohol consumption patterns. The industrial revolution contributed to excess consumption by stimulating demand and lowering the cost of alcohol. It also led to concentration in some alcohol industries, expecially brewing. In recent years the emergence of craft producers has countered firm concentration and the homogenization of alcoholic beverages. Meanwhile, governments have intervened extensively in alcohol markets to reduce excessive consumption, raise taxes, protect domestic industries and/or ensure competition. These regulations have contributed to, and been affected by, evolving patterns of consumption and changing structures of alcohol industries. |
| Keywords: | Globalization of preferences; Convergence of national beverage consumption mix; Alcohol and health; Restrictions on alcohol consumption and production; Beverage firm concentration |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-09&r=all |
| By: | Kashi, Kafle; Paliwal, Neha; Benfica, Rui |
| Abstract: | This analysis examines the dynamics of youth employment in agriculture and the agri-food system in Tanzania and Malawi - in and out of agriculture and the agri-food system. The study finds that when extending the definition of a farmer beyond household heads, that the average age of individuals participating in agriculture is 34 years in Tanzania, and 31 years in Malawi. In addition, there is a high degree of short-term stability in farming in both countries. 59 per cent of rural youth in Tanzania and 56 per cent in Malawi are consistently engaged in farming. While the figures are encouraging, it is likely that the poor economic prospects outside farming are what is driving strong participation in single-occupation farming. To increase youth employment, it is recommended that Tanzania and Malawi diversify the rural economy by creating opportunities in the agri-food system. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:unadrs:287201&r=all |
| By: | Ingvild Almås; Johannes Haushofer; Jeremy P. Shapiro |
| Abstract: | We use a randomized controlled trial to study the effect of large income changes, through unconditional cash transfers, on the food share of expenditures and consumption of calories among poor households in rural Kenya. Our preferred estimate of the food elasticity following USD 709 transfers is 0.78 for expenditure, 0.60 for calories, and 1.29 for protein. Experimental elasticities are lower than cross-sectional estimates. These estimates are unaffected by spillovers or price changes at the village level: results are similar with vs. without an almost ideal demand system, and with a control group in treatment vs. control villages. |
| JEL: | C93 D12 D13 D14 O12 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25711&r=all |
| By: | Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde Johanna |
| Abstract: | Using a threshold vector error correction model approach we find the wheat market of Russia segmented, with the primary grain export region poorly integrated into the domestic market. Results also indicate that trade costs are high, hindering spatial market efficiency of wheat markets in Russia. In addition, our study demonstrates that, by including the USA as benchmark country, a comparative approach enables a more comprehensive assessment of the spatial market efficiency of the wheat market in Russia. The study shows that the distinction between grain production and export potential, especially for markets located in peripheral regions of Russia, is essential to correctly identify Russia's future role for global food security. As a general conclusion, besides raising agricultural production potential it is also essential to strengthen spatial market efficiency in the agricultural sector to boost agricultural export potential and to increase global food security. |
| Keywords: | spatial market efficiency,grain production potential,Russia,TVECM,regularized Bayesian estimator |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:187&r=all |
| By: | Gary Gaukler; Michael Ketzenberg; Victoria Salin |
| Abstract: | Our research addresses the value of information (VOI) for the use of a product's time and temperature history (TTH). Using TTH information, the retailer can set expiration dates dynamically, based on known environmental conditions. This dynamically set expiration date corresponds to the maximum number of periods that inventory may remain available for sale before it must be removed from inventory and discarded (outdated). In current static practice, however, without the availability of TTH, environmental conditions are not known and all units of inventory receive the same expiration date, generally predicated on worst case conditions. Our research demonstrates that information on the TTH as a product flows through the supply chain can be very valuable. Using the example of a supply chain for fresh packaged tomatoes, we quantify the value of TTH information when used for dynamic expiration date setting. We find that the VOI is quite sensitive to environmental and parametric settings, ranging upwards to 90.5% with a mean of 41.2%. Our studies demonstrate that the cost savings that leads to the VOI from TTH and expiration dating stems from two major sources: eliminating the chance of selling perished product, and greatly decreasing the rate at which lost sales occur. In addition, we show that when dynamic expiration dating is used, average product freshness at the time of sale increases significantly. This indicates a win-win situation where costs to the retailer are reduced, and also additional value for the consumer is created. We also extend our analysis into the impact of imperfect information and find that the VOI is fairly robust, up to error levels corresponding to a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of approximately 12%. Median VOI at those error levels is 16.5%. The impact of errors, however, differs depending on the model parameterization and we find that under certain settings, the VOI can remain significant for much larger values of MAPE. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2017–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:tamagr:285205&r=all |
| By: | Schleich, Joachim; Hillenbrand, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper econometrically estimates residential water consumption in Germany between 2007 and 2013 based on a panel of almost 3000 supply areas. In particular, the analysis distinguishes periods of rising and falling water and sewage water prices. The short-run (long-run) price elasticity is estimated at around 4.2% (13%), but water demand appears to respond asymmetrically to rising and falling prices. When prices are rising, the short-run (long-run) price elasticity is around 6.5% (18%). When prices are falling, the short-run price elasticity is not statistically different from zero, and the long-run price elasticity is estimated at around 12%. Additional results illustrate that employing average prices instead of marginal prices results in substantially overestimating the price elasticity. These findings are particularly relevant for utilities and regulators planning to alter the tariff structure towards a higher fixed fee and a lower volumetric fee. |
| Keywords: | water consumption,econometrics,rebound,tariff,price elasticity,panel data |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s032019&r=all |
| By: | Analee Pepper (Bettine Pepper Advising) |
| Abstract: | Integrating gender dimensions into early warning systems is critical to support equitable crisis prevention and response. This paper investigates the extent to which food and nutrition security early warning systems (FNS EWS) in the Sahel and West Africa are gender-responsive and highlights existing gaps at national and regional levels. Progress has been made by key partners and stakeholders towards strengthening the gender analysis of FNS EWS, however, these efforts have not led to a unified reconfiguration of joint FNS EWS mechanisms to be more gender-responsive. More concerted efforts are required to assess and track the gender dimensions of FNS EWS to inform more equitable emergency prevention and response. This paper provides timely policy directions to support stakeholders’ efforts in strengthening the gender-responsiveness of early warning systems in the Sahel and West Africa. |
| Keywords: | early warning systems, food security, gender analysis, gender responsiveness, sex- and age-disaggregated data |
| JEL: | H12 J16 R58 Q18 |
| Date: | 2019–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:swacaa:24-en&r=all |
| By: | Loic Levi (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST); Laure Latruffe (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST); Aude Ridier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to investigate the role of farm performance in farmers' investment decisions with a theoretical model accounting for adjustment costs and performance. The model is estimated on a balanced sample of specialised dairy farms in Brittany (western France) between 2005 and 2014. Two types of farms are considered: with high and with low capital intensity. The results show that spreading investment over time is, on average, an optimal strategy for maintaining performance in the presence of adjustment costs. In addition, the effect of performance on investment behaviour differs between the two farm types. |
| Abstract: | L'objectif de ce travail est d'analyser le rôle de la performance des exploitations agricoles dans les décisions d'investissement des exploitants, grâce à un modèle théorique prenant en compte les coûts d'ajustement et la performance. Le modèle est estimé sur un échantillon cylindré d'exploitations laitières spécialisées en Bretagne entre 2005 et 2014. Deux types d'exploitations sont considérées : celles avec une forte intensité en capital, et celles avec une faible intensité en capital. Les résultats montrent que répartir l'investissement sur plusieurs années est en moyenne une stratégie optimale pour maintenir la performance lorsqu'il y a des coûts d'ajustement. De plus, l'effet de la performance sur le comportement d'investissement diffère entre les deux types d'exploitations. |
| Keywords: | exploitation agricole laitière,coût d'ajustement,farm investment,adjustment cost model,dairy sector,reinvestment,investissement,performance,France,bretagne |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02077531&r=all |
| By: | David Atkin; Eve Colson-Sihra; Moses Shayo |
| Abstract: | Are identities fungible? How do people come to identify with specific groups? This paper proposes a revealed preference approach, using food consumption to uncover ethnic and religious identity choices in India. We first show that consumption of identity goods (e.g. beef and pork) systematically responds to forces suggested by social-identity research: group status and group salience, with the latter proxied by inter-group conflict. Moreover, identity choices respond to the cost of following the group's prescribed behaviors. We propose and estimate a modified demand system to quantify the identity changes that followed India's 1991 economic reforms. While social-identity research has focused on status and salience, economic costs appear to play a dominant role. |
| JEL: | D12 D74 D91 O1 Z1 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25693&r=all |
| By: | Gary W. Williams; Oral Capps, Jr.; Daniel Hanselka |
| Abstract: | Agricultural promotion groups (APGs) promote the economic welfare of agricultural producers by financing generic advertising and promotion activities intended to expand demand for their commodities in hopes that the benefits will more than cover the cost. A review of the most recent evaluations of 27 major U.S. APG generic advertising and promotion programs conducted by many different researchers using widely different techniques concludes that that those programs have effectively enhanced the profits of their respective stakeholders and generated high rates of returns to the dollars invested in those programs. Importantly, this study finds that the success of those programs in supporting and growing their respective sectors of agriculture has spilled over to the general economy. The programs have created an important multiplier effect through the economy. In the process, jobs have been created; income has been generated; and economic growth has occurred. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing |
| Date: | 2017–11–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:tamagr:285264&r=all |
| By: | Yanbykh, Renata (Янбых, Рената) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Gataulina, Ekaterina (Гатаулина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Шишкина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the current state of agricultural consumer cooperation in Russia, assesses the competitiveness of cooperatives in terms of financial status and level of state support. On the basis of the developed methodology, authors identify branches and regions where the potential for cooperation of small business forms is the highest and assess of its implementation at the present time. The potential change of the cooperation of personal subsidiary farms and small farmers, individual entrepreneurs in dairy cattle breeding for the inter-census period (2006-2016) has been revealed. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031957&r=all |
| By: | Gary W. Williams; Oral Capps, Jr. |
| Abstract: | Globally, over half of all sorghum is used for human consumption. Yet sorghum is largely unknown as a food in the United States and other developed countries. Recently, the U.S. demand for sorghum as a gluten-free, non-GMO input to food products has been growing. At the same time, the use of sorghum for food and industrial uses is being promoted by the producer-financed United Sorghum Checkoff Program (USCP). How much of that growth can be attributed to the USCP promotion? Has the investment been profitable for sorghum producers? This study finds that USCP promotion programs have resulted in a 4% increase in the sales value of sorghum for that purpose and a 1% increase in total sorghum farm revenue. The farm level benefit-cost ratio is estimated at between 5.8 and 7.1 in terms of producer profit per dollar spent on promotion. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2018–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:tamagr:285211&r=all |
| By: | Matthew Gibson (Williams College); Jamie T. Mullins (University of Massachusetts-Amherst); Alison Hill (Analysis Group) |
| Abstract: | Applying a difference-in-differences framework to a census of residential property transactions in New York City 2003-2017, we estimate the price effects of three flood risk signals: 1) the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which increased premiums; 2) Hurricane Sandy; and 3) new floodplain maps reflecting three decades of climate change. Estimates are negative for all three signals and some are large: properties included in the new floodplain after escaping flooding by Sandy experienced 18 percent price reductions. We investigate possible mechanisms, including selection of properties into the market and residential sorting. Finding no evidence for these, we develop a parsimonious theoretical model to study changes in flood beliefs. The model allows decomposition of our reduced-form estimates into the effects of insurance premium changes and belief updating. Results suggest that the new maps induced substantially larger belief changes than insurance reform. |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 R30 G22 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2019-02&r=all |