nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2019‒01‒28
twenty-one papers chosen by
Angelo Zago
Università degli Studi di Verona

  1. Viability of cork-enriched feed in trout farming: An agri benchmark fish study on innovative aquaculture techniques By Behrens, Gesine Maren; Lasner, Tobias; Brinker, Alexander; Schumann, Mark
  2. Life Cycle Assessment of olive cultivation in Italy: comparison of three management systems By Borzęcka, Magdalena; Żyłowska, Katarzyna; Russo, Giuseppe; Pisanelli, Andrea; Freire, Fausto
  3. Dynamic Changes and Effects of Agro-Food GVCS By Jared Greenville; Kentaro Kawasaki; Marie-Agnes Jouanjean
  4. Protection and Profit: Empirical Evidence of Governmental and Market-based Forest Policies By Julika Herzberg
  5. Heterogeneity, Measurement Error and Misallocation: Evidence from African Agriculture By Douglas Gollin; Christopher R. Udry
  6. New goods with new attributes: combining revealed and stated preferences to assess the effect of a novel quality label in the food industry By Lacaze, María Victoria; González, Julia
  7. Economical potential of unutilised agricultural area in Poland. Scenario of crop production resumption, the first approximate evaluation By Pudełko, Rafał; Kozak, Małgorzata; Jędrejek, Anna; Gałczyńska, Małgorzata
  8. Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate By Jonathan I. Dingel; Kyle C. Meng; Solomon M. Hsiang
  9. Young Rural Women Participation in the E-Wallet Programme and Usage Intensity of Modern Agricultural Inputs in Nigeria By Joseph I. Uduji; Elda N. Okolo-Obasi
  10. “Land Ownership and Informal Credit in Rural Vietnam" By Matteo Migheli
  11. Price Dispersion and Informational Frictions: Evidence from Supermarket Purchases By Pierre Dubois; Helena Perrone
  12. Optimal Control of a Global Model of Climate Change with Adaptation and Mitigation By Manoj Atolia; Prakash Loungani; Helmut Maurer; Willi Semmler
  13. Transboundary Water Resources for People and Nature: Challenges and Opportunities in the Olifants River Basin By Mirzabaev, Alisher; Njiraini, Georgina Wambui; Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos; Jourdain, Damien; Magaia, Emílio; Julio, Felita; Mosse, Gerivásia; Mutondo, João; Mungatana, Eric
  14. AGMEMOD Outlook for Agricultural and Food Markets in EU Member States 2018-2030 By Salamon, Petra; Banse, Martin; Donnellan, Trevor; Haß, Marlen; Jongeneel, Roel; Laquai, Verena; Leeuwen, Myrna van; Reziti, Ioanna; Salputra, Guna; Zirngibl, Max-Emanuel
  15. The Environmental Kuznets Curve in ASEAN: The Case of Carbon Emissions By Budhi Utomo, Ginanjar; Widodo, Tri
  16. IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 34 - Farm size and productivity: lessons from recent literature By Gollin, Douglas
  17. A sequential mathematical modeling approach for estimating supply curves for energy crops under different policy scenarios: A Greek case study By Mantziaris, Stamatis; Kremmydas, Dimitris; Karanikolas, Pavlos
  18. Misperceived Quality: Fertilizer in Tanzania By Michelson, Hope; Ellison, Brenna; Fairbairn, Anna; Maertens, Annemie; Manyong, Victor
  19. Fishing Rights and Colonial Government: Institutional Development in the Bengal Presidency By Shourya Sen; Richard Adelstein
  20. Commodity Price Uncertainty as a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity By Athanasios Triantafyllou; Dimitrios Bakas; Marilou Ioakimidis
  21. The rural exodus and the rise of Europe By Thomas Baudin; Robert Stelter; ;

  1. By: Behrens, Gesine Maren; Lasner, Tobias; Brinker, Alexander; Schumann, Mark
    Abstract: Feed costs are a crucial factor in trout farms. For farmers endeavoring to maximize profitability, improving feed management is an essential consideration. The introduction of cork-enriched feed has been tested in the previous studies, which focused the technological and environmental performance of the new feed. Against that background our study analyses the potential economic benefits of a cork-enriched feed on farm level. Cork-enriched fish feed in a production systems could enable a twin-track approach, which enhances the quality of water and the profitability of a fish farm at the same time. Based on agri benchmark fish farm models our study projects the implementation of the innovative feed in selected German trout farms to test the economic viability and analyse the effects towards farms' profitability. Given that feed is the most important outlay in trout farming, the expense of the cork feed system initially leads to heavy losses or marginal returns and declining operational results in all modeled scenarios. Notwithstanding, the opportunity to reduce labor and oxygen demand or use the saved inputs to increase productivity indicate that cork feed has potential to increase overall profitability depending on the scale of farm. The results of the current study lead us to conclude that the use of cork-enriched feed, with feed costs of € 1.44 per kg trout, is not profitable for smaller operations. The picture for large farms, which are up to now untypical for Germany, using cost intensive filtration techniques is very different. Here, increased profits can be achieved relatively fast, even under current levels of production. If an increase in production is achieved, then the cork feed makes a highly economic alternative to conventional feed.
    Keywords: feed,cork-enriched feed,profitability,aquaculture,trout,Fischfutter,Korkfutter,Wirtschaftlichkeit,Aquakultur,Forelle
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Borzęcka, Magdalena; Żyłowska, Katarzyna; Russo, Giuseppe; Pisanelli, Andrea; Freire, Fausto
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to evaluate the potential environmental life-cycle impacts of olives produced in three management systems of olive tree integrated with natural grassland. This study compares three small farms using different farming systems (silvopastoral, organic and traditional) with an average Italian farm using life cycle assessment methodology. The most related to agriculture impact categories were assessed: Global Warming potential, acidification and eutrophication. All farms were are using small amount of fertilisers, low use of chemicals, and no pesticides. However among all agricultural practices, fertilization has the highest environmental impact followed by machinery use. In this case organic farming system is looking as the most promising one due to low organic fertiliser application.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management
    Date: 2019–01–21
  3. By: Jared Greenville (OECD); Kentaro Kawasaki (OECD); Marie-Agnes Jouanjean (OECD)
    Abstract: Global value chains (GVCs) in agriculture and food sectors are becoming an important part of the agro-food trading landscape, influencing both the nature of the gains from trade and the impacts of trade policies. This study explores the changes in trade in value added that are occurring within agro-food GVCs and the implications that participation in agro-food GVCs has had on the agro-food sectors. It makes use of a database on trade in value added for 22 agro-food sectors derived from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database. The study finds that between 2004 and 2014, agro-food sectors have been increasing their participation in GVCs and that the links created within these production networks have become more “global” in nature. At the same time, agro-food GVCs have become increasingly centred around hubs in the People’s Republic of China and Germany where large amounts of value added are funnelled before reaching the end consumer. The study also finds that participation in agro-food GVCs is beneficial for sector development and growth – both in aggregate terms and in terms of domestic value added from exports. Of key importance has been the use of foreign value added and access to a wide diversity of imported inputs. However, policies that restrict trade and limit market openness reduce participation and sector growth and development – including policies that create barriers to trade in agro-food products themselves. In addition, the study finds that the use of services value added in exports is an important factor that contributes to sector growth, which highlights the importance of the broader policy environment to enhance the benefits from agro-food GVCs.
    Keywords: agricultural trade, Agriculture, global value chains, GTAP, multi-regional output
    JEL: F14 Q17
    Date: 2019–01–28
  4. By: Julika Herzberg (Aachen university)
    Abstract: In this paper, I study the effectiveness of privately managed FSC certified forests and public sustainability reserves distributed over the entire Brazilian Amazon from 2002-2015. The paper uses high-resolution data on forest cover derived from satellite images and organized in a grid of 1 km2 cells. Using a difference-in-differences estimator in a regression discontinuity environment, I find an increase in deforestation of an annual area of 8,057 ha in FSC forests after the certification. Public sustainability zones' impact on deforestation is also positive but declines over time. The effectiveness of both type of zones improves if they are located closer to (export) markets or existing infrastructure.
    Keywords: deforestation, commodity prices, sustainable forest management
    JEL: J43 O13 O14 Q15 Q17
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Douglas Gollin; Christopher R. Udry
    Abstract: Standard measures of productivity display enormous dispersion across farms in Africa. Crop yields and input intensities appear to vary greatly, seemingly in conflict with a model of efficient allocation across farms. In this paper, we present a theoretical framework for distinguishing between measurement error, unobserved heterogeneity, and potential misallocation. Using rich panel data from farms in Tanzania and Uganda, we estimate our model using a flexible specification in which we allow for several kinds of measurement error and heterogeneity. We find that measurement error and heterogeneity together account for a large fraction – as much as ninety percent -- of the dispersion in measured productivity. In contrast to some previous estimates, we suggest that the potential for efficiency gains through reallocation of land across farms and farmers may be relatively modest.
    JEL: O1 O11 O12 O13 Q1
    Date: 2019–01
  6. By: Lacaze, María Victoria; González, Julia
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the effect on market shares and consumer surplus of the introduction of a Good Agricultural Practices (GAP)-labeled product in the frozen fried potatoes (FFP) industry. We first estimate a model of household demand in Mar del Plata, Argentina, using scanner data and demographic information. We find that higher income individuals are more concerned about health and nutrition, and that younger and lower-income consumers are more price-sensitive. Then we postulate that a properly GAP-labeled FFP is available in the market, and we assess its effect by using the estimated utility function and prior information about consumers' declared willingness to pay (WTP) for sustainably produced potatoes. We find that the older the individual, the greater the influence of the hypothetical introduction of the GAP-labeled product; the relationship is less conclusive in the case of income. Finally, we predict the results of a greater consumer surplus extraction by fixing a higher price for the new product, and we calculate the maximum increase in the marginal cost that the firm would be able to afford if farmers charge higher prices for GAP fresh potatoes.
    Keywords: Buenas Prácticas Agrícolas; Alimentos Congelados; Papa; Disposición a Pagar; Modelo de Elección Discreta;
    Date: 2018–08
  7. By: Pudełko, Rafał; Kozak, Małgorzata; Jędrejek, Anna; Gałczyńska, Małgorzata
    Abstract: The study presents assessment of economic benefits possible to be obtained thanks to restoring agricultural production on fallowed/abandoned land located on arable parcels of medium-good and medium quality classes of land in Poland. Unused agricultural areas appeared in the 90s of XX century, after the political transformation. Currently, 1.3 million ha of arable land, 281 thousand ha of pastures and 39 thousand ha of orchards still remain uncultivated, which is 14.6% of total agricultural area. Modelling of potential benefits after restoring agricultural production was conducted by using spatial analysis in the scale of parcels. The main conclusions: (a) in Poland there are over 442.8 thousand ha of arable land which can be effectively restored to crop production, (b) after land use change of the mentioned area, a potential increase in cereal production by 5.94% is expected, which can be equivalent to 1.77 million tonnes of triticale, (c) besides, 1.59 million tonnes of straw can be produced for soil conservation, animal production and bioenergy purposes.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2019–01–21
  8. By: Jonathan I. Dingel; Kyle C. Meng; Solomon M. Hsiang
    Abstract: This paper shows that greater global spatial correlation of productivities can increase cross-country welfare dispersion by increasing the correlation between a country’s productivity and its gains from trade. We causally validate this general-equilibrium prediction using a global climatic phenomenon as a natural experiment. We find that gains from trade in cereals over the last half-century were larger for more productive countries and smaller for less productive countries when cereal productivity was more spatially correlated. Incorporating this general-equilibrium effect into a projection of climate-change impacts raises projected international inequality, with higher welfare losses across most of Africa.
    JEL: F11 F14 F18 O13 Q17 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2019–01
  9. By: Joseph I. Uduji (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Elda N. Okolo-Obasi (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria)
    Abstract: We assess the extent young rural women (YRW) participate in the federal government (FGN)e-wallet programme and the subsequent impact on usage intensity of modern agricultural inputs in Nigeria. Six hundred YRW were sampled across six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Using double-hurdle, results show that YRW rarely participate in the e-wallet programme due to the cultural and traditional context which is anchored in beliefs, norms and practices that breed discrimination and feminized poverty. This implies that Nigeria’s agricultural transformation agenda would only succeed if the FGN is able to draw on all its resources and talents, and if the YRW can be able to participate fully in the e-wallet programme. This will require intensified efforts to eliminate discrimination and promote equalities. To bridge the gender gap, the federal ministry of agriculture and rural development should pay close attention to the extent the participation of unmarried girls and young women, including nursing mothers in the e-wallet programme, may be limited by the cultural and/or domestic and child care duties. The findings suggest that FGN should discourage gender disparities in unequal access to agricultural inputs and pervasive, inequality, especially over ownership of agricultural land that limit women’s contribution to household food baskets.
    Keywords: Gender, e-wallet programme, modern agricultural inputs
    JEL: J43 O40 O55 Q10
    Date: 2018–01
  10. By: Matteo Migheli (University of Turin and CeRP-Collegio Carlo Alberto)
    Abstract: Access to credit and its cost is a major challenge for farmers in developing countries. Several studies show that land serves as collateral for accessing formal credit, but they often do not find any significant effect of land size on access to informal credit. I study the effects of land ownership on both the demand and the cost of informal credit in the Mekong Delta. The results show that as land ownership increases, both the demand and the cost of informal loans decrease. Design and implementation of appropriate land redistributions seems a fundamental way to fight the informal credit market.
    Date: 2018–06
  11. By: Pierre Dubois; Helena Perrone
    Abstract: Traditional demand models assume that consumers are perfectly informed about product characteristics, including price. However, this assumption may be too strong. Unannounced sales are a common supermarket practice. As we show, retailers frequently change position in the price rankings, thus making it unlikely that consumers are aware of all deals o¤ered in each period. Further empirical evidence on consumer behavior is also consistent with a model with price information frictions. We develop such a model for horizontally di¤erentiated products and structurally estimate the search cost distribution. The results show that in equilibrium, consumers observe a very limited number of prices before making a purchase decision, which implies that imperfect information is indeed important and that local market power is potentially high. We also show that a full information demand model yields severely biased price elasticities.
    Keywords: imperfect information, price dispersion, sales, search costs, product differentiation, consumer behavior, demand estimation, price elasticities
    JEL: D4 D83 L11 L66
    Date: 2018–10
  12. By: Manoj Atolia; Prakash Loungani; Helmut Maurer; Willi Semmler
    Abstract: The Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) has extensively treated the adverse effects of climate change and the appropriate mitigation policy. We extend such a model to include optimal policies for mitigation, adaptation and infrastructure investment studying the dynamics of the transition to a low fossil-fuel economy. We focus on the adverse effects of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration on households. Formally, the model gives rise to an optimal control problem of finite horizon consisting of a dynamic system with five-dimensional state vector consisting of stocks of private capital, green capital, public capital, stock of brown energy in the ground, and emissions. Given the numerous challenges to climate change policies the control vector is also five-dimensional. Our solutions are characterized by turnpike property and the optimal policy that accomplishes the objective of keeping the CO2 levels within bound is characterized by a significant proportion of investment in public capital going to mitigation in the initial periods. When initial levels of CO2 are high, adaptation efforts also start immediately, but during the initial period, they account for a smaller proportion of government's public investment.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy;Climate Change, Optimal Control, Environmental Economics, Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    Date: 2018–12–10
  13. By: Mirzabaev, Alisher; Njiraini, Georgina Wambui; Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos; Jourdain, Damien; Magaia, Emílio; Julio, Felita; Mosse, Gerivásia; Mutondo, João; Mungatana, Eric
    Abstract: This paper proposes that transboundary water governance needs to become an essential input to sustainable governance of protected natural reserves. The paper reviews the challenges and opportunities for such governance mechanisms, and identifies the factors behind successful practices. Successful transboundary governance of water and nature requires the reduction of associated transaction costs. Firstly, water diplomacy through joint research, data collection and monitoring, capacity building, dialogues for consensus building, promoting responsible leadership and providing advisory support can help in overcoming mistrust between stakeholders and create opportunities for cooperation. Secondly, power asymmetries may hinder transboundary water governance, therefore, there is a need to involve multi-scale links across stakeholders to counter-balance local power asymmetries and engage all stakeholders in consultations and negotiations. Thirdly, transboundary water governance is critically dependent on accurate and transparent data and analysis tools for informing policy decisions. Science-policy interactions for facilitating transboundary water governance were found to be most effective when the knowledge on joint water and nature governance is co-produced in a trans-disciplinary manner, in collaboration with wide-ranging informal networks of scientists, policy makers, and civil society. Finally, transboundary water governance organizations can serve as platforms for facilitating water diplomacy, building trust and cooperation, especially when they are granted the ability to enter into binding cooperative agreements regardless of external political pressures.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2019–01–22
  14. By: Salamon, Petra; Banse, Martin; Donnellan, Trevor; Haß, Marlen; Jongeneel, Roel; Laquai, Verena; Leeuwen, Myrna van; Reziti, Ioanna; Salputra, Guna; Zirngibl, Max-Emanuel
    Abstract: Policy, administration and industry need medium-term projections of the expected developments in the agri-food markets for their decision-making processes. The EU Commission presents such projections for the EU as a whole in December of each year. Those projections and their assumptions regarding policy and macroeconomic developments are depicted to the level of individual EU Member States with the exception of Luxembourg, which is included in the figures of Belgium, by applying the partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The working paper briefly describes the approach to establish projections for the EU Member States. The projections cover the markets of main agricultural products, in particular for cereals and oilseeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed), livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and sheep), meat (beef, pork, and poultry), milk and dairy products (drinking milk, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder, whole milk and semi-skimmed milk powder). The outcomes comprise items like areas, livestock numbers, yields, production, trade and use, as well as prices. The individual projection results are displayed in tables.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2019–01–16
  15. By: Budhi Utomo, Ginanjar; Widodo, Tri
    Abstract: Over the past two decades, researchers have sought to establish empirical evidence for an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for carbon dioxide (CO2), with varied results. This study builds on that research to re-evaluate whether the EKC exists for CO2 emissions, using an improved dataset and the enhanced econometric technique Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) estimator. The aims determine how various factors like economic growth, and energy use influence CO2 emissions. The CO2 emission rate is the dependent variable and the independent variables of the model include the lagged dependent variable, GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$), and energy use. We find that EKC is based on economic growth for ASEAN countries, and increased energy use actually increase CO2 emissions
    Keywords: ASEAN, CO2, Environmental Kuznets Curve,GMM.
    JEL: Q52 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2019–01–06
  16. By: Gollin, Douglas
    Abstract: This paper considers the relationship between farm size and productivity patterns across countries and within countries. Across countries, there is a weak but positive relationship between farm size and yield. A much stronger positive relationship holds for agricultural output per unit of labour, which is closely correlated with farm size across countries. The inverse farm size-productivity relationship holds true within countries. However, even within countries, there is typically a strong positive relationship between farm size and labour productivity. Considering that hundreds of millions of poor people will remain in smallholder agriculture for decades to come, policy-makers need to consider whether current strategies offer a particularly valuable way to generate agricultural development.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Food Security and Poverty, Land Economics/Use
    Date: 2019–01–23
  17. By: Mantziaris, Stamatis; Kremmydas, Dimitris; Karanikolas, Pavlos
    Abstract: This article studies the potential of three perennial energy crops, miscanthus, arundo and poplar, to play such a role in the region of Karditsa, Greece. The relevant policy mix is analysed, discussed and outlined as a nexus of interrelated incentives provided by policy makers and the market. Supply curves for different energy crops can be used as a decision-making tool by all interested parties within a biomass-oriented supply chain; biomass producers can use them to decide on the economic feasibility and efficiency of a suggested energy crop, while industrial players may use them to determine contract prices that ensure long-term availability of inputs. For the purpose of energy crops supply curves estimation a sequential linear programming model is developed, which takes into consideration the deployment of farms’ decisions in time, illustrating crop mix and economic indicators in the medium term. As biomass price increases, arundo cultivation reveals significant possibility of expansion compared to miscanthus and poplar. On the other hand, durum wheat and set-aside are decreased significantly. Aggregate biomass supply curve moves upwards over the studied years.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics
    Date: 2018–12–21
  18. By: Michelson, Hope; Ellison, Brenna; Fairbairn, Anna; Maertens, Annemie; Manyong, Victor
    Abstract: Fertilizer use remains below recommended rates in most of Sub-Saharan Africa, contributing to poor crop yields and poverty. Farmers voice suspicion that available fertilizer is often adulterated, but these concerns are not backed by reliable evidence. In fact, an insight from industry but absent from academic literature is that profitable fertilizer adulteration is difficult. We surveyed all fertilizer sellers in Morogoro Region, Tanzania and tested 633 samples of their fertilizer. We also conducted a willingness-to-pay assessment with farmers. We find that fertilizers meet nutrient standards but that belief of rampant product adulteration persists among farmers. We find evidence of a quality inference problem in the market: 25% of fertilizer has deteriorated in observable ways and farmers rely on these observable attributes to (incorrectly) assess unobservable nutrient quality. We show that this misperception likely reduces technology adoption beyond the effect of nutrient quality being unobservable.
    Keywords: agriculture, fertilizer, input adoption, technology adoption, quality, Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: D8 D82 O1 O10 O13 Q12
    Date: 2018–10–01
  19. By: Shourya Sen; Richard Adelstein (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University)
    Abstract: We examine the evolution of fishing rights in colonial Bengal through a series of cases heard at the Calcutta High Court in the 1880s and culminating in the passage of legislation in 1889. We posit an implicit relational contract between the colonizing British and the landowning class in colonial Bengal as a way to understand the concurrent evolution of fishing rights and institutions of governance in the region. The system of incentives created by this contract determined the development of fishing rights at a crucial moment in the history of colonial Bengal and, more broadly, became a primary mechanism of institutional change in the region. The analysis also shows the Calcutta High Court to have acted, albeit in vain, as a truly independent judiciary.
    Keywords: fishing rights, state formation, relational contracts, colonialism, credible commitments
    JEL: N55 O13 P48
    Date: 2019–01
  20. By: Athanasios Triantafyllou (Essex Business School, University of Essex, UK); Dimitrios Bakas (Department of Economics, Nottingham Trent University, UK; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis); Marilou Ioakimidis (University of Peloponnese, Greece; Department of Economics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece)
    Abstract: In this paper we examine the impact of commodity price uncertainty on US economic activity. Our empirical analysis indicates that uncertainty in agricultural, metals and energy markets depresses US economic activity and acts as an early warning signal for US recessions with a forecasting horizon ranging from one to twelve months. The results reveal that uncertainty shocks in agricultural and metals markets are more significant for the US macroeconomy when compared to oil price uncertainty shocks. Finally, we show that when accounting for the effects of macroeconomic and monetary factors, the negative dynamic response of economic activity to agricultural and metals price uncertainty shocks remains unaltered, while the response to energy uncertainty shocks is significantly reduced due to either systematic policy reactions or random shocks in monetary policy.
    Keywords: Volatility, Commodity Prices, Economic Recession, Economic Activity
    JEL: C32 E27 F37 G17 Q02 Q43
    Date: 2019–01
  21. By: Thomas Baudin (IÉSEG School of Management); Robert Stelter (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research); ;
    Abstract: To assess the importance of the rural exodus in fostering the transition from stagnation to growth, we propose a unified model of growth and internal migrations. Using an original set of Swedish data, we identify the deep parameters of our model. We show that internal migration conditions had to be favorable enough to authorize an exodus out of the countryside in order to fuel the industrial development of cities. We then compare the respective contribution of shocks on internal migration costs, infant mortality and inequalities in agricultural productivity to the economic take-off and the demographic transition that occurred in Sweden. Negative shocks on labor mobility generate larger delays in the take-off to growth compared to mortality shocks equivalent to the Black Death. Deepening inequalities of productivity in the agricultural sector, like it has been done by enclosure movements, contributes to accelerate urbanization at the cost of depressed economic growth.
    Keywords: Demographic transition, Industrialization, Rural exodus, Mortality differentials, Fertility differentials.
    JEL: J11 J13 O41
    Date: 2019–01

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