nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2018‒03‒12
thirty papers chosen by
Angelo Zago
Università degli Studi di Verona

  1. Competitiveness of global agriculture: Policy lessons for food security: Synopsis By Jambor, Attila; Babu, Suresh Chandra
  2. Modelling land use, deforestation, and policy: a hybrid optimisation-heterogeneous agent model with application to the Bolivian Amazon By Andersen, Lykke E.; Groom, Ben; Killick, Evan; Ledezma, Juan Carlos; Palmer, Charles; Weinhold, Diana
  3. Agriculture and the rural economy in Pakistan: Issues, outlooks, and policy priorities: Synopsis By Spielman, David J.; Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Dorosh, Paul A.; Ahmad, Nuzhat
  4. Cost-effectiveness of conservation payment schemes under climate change By Emeline Hily; Martin Drechsler; Franck Wätzold
  5. Material flow analysis of the forest-wood supply chain: a consequential approach for log export policies in France By Jonathan Lenglet; Jean-Yves Courtonne; Sylvain Caurla
  6. Modelling the choice between and the costs of multiple-use vs. specialized forest management By Serge Garcia; Claudio Petucco; Bo Jellesmark Thorsen; Suzanne Elizabeth Vedel
  7. Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent? By Wendong Zhang; Wei Zhang; Chad E. Hart
  8. Land Quality Perceptions in Expert Opinion Surveys: Evidence from Iowa By Wendong Zhang; Michael D. Duffy
  9. Fuel Subsidy Pass-Through and Market Structure: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard By Gabriel E. Lade; James Bushnell
  10. Intellectual Property Rights and the Ascent of Proprietary Innovation in Agriculture By Matthew S. Clancy; GianCarlo Moschini
  11. High unknowability of climate damage valuation means the social cost of carbon will always be disputed By John C. V. Pezzey
  12. The Renewable Fuel Standard in Competitive Equilibrium: Market and Welfare Effects By GianCarlo Moschini; Harvey E. Lapan; Hyunseok Kim
  13. A multi-dimensional measure of environmental behavior: Exploring the predictive power of connectedness to nature, ecological worldview and environmental concern By Halkos, George; Gkargkavouzi, Anastasia; Matsiori, Steriani
  14. Does the Expansion of Biofuels Encroach on the Forest? By Derya Keles; Johanna Choumert; Pascale Combes-Motel; Eric N. Kéré
  15. The Current Farm Downturn versus the 1920s and 1980s Farm Crises: An Economic and Regulatory Comparison By Wendong Zhang; Kristine Tidgren
  16. Producers' valuation of animal welfare practices: Does herd size matter? By Danne, Michael; Mußhoff, Oliver
  17. Evaluation of the Cost and Effectiveness of Direct Nutrition Education to Low-Income Audiences in Iowa: EFNEP and SNAP-Ed graduates practicing Optimal Nutritional Behaviors (ONB) By Christine Hradek; Helen H. Jensen; Nicole Schimerowski Miller; Miyoung Oh
  18. Reassessing forest products demand functions in Europe using a panel cointegration approach By Paul Rougieux; Olivier Damette
  19. Abundant water, abundant knowledge: Cognitive patterns for policy changes in Brussels’ water management system By Nicola Francesco Dotti
  20. Commodity price stabilization: The need for a policy mix that breaks the vicious cycle of commodity dependence and price volatility By Tröster, Bernhard
  21. Redesigning a food bank supply chain network, Part II: Computational study By Martins, C. L.; Melo, Teresa; Pato, Margarida Vaz
  22. What drives livelihoods’ strategies in ruralareas? Evidence from the Tridom Conservation Landscape using Spatial Probit Analysis By Jonas Ngouhouo Poufoun; Philippe Delacote
  23. Fishing and non-fishing income decisions: the role of human capital and family structure By Eskander, Shaikh M.S.U.; Barbier, Edward B.; Gilbert, Ben
  24. Assessing Food Security in Ethiopia with USDA ERS's New Food Security Modeling Approach By Karen Thome; Birgit Meade; Stacey Rosen; John C. Beghin
  25. Economic analysis of postwindthrow forest management: the cut-or-keep decision rule By Claudio Petucco; Pablo Andrés-Domenech; Lilian Duband
  26. Endogenous Climate Coalitions and Free Trade - Building the Missing Link By Thomas Kuhn; Radomir Pestow; Anja Zenker
  27. Do consumers choose to stay ignorant? The role of information in the purchase of ethically certified products By Felgendreher, Simon
  28. The Impact of Natural Disasters on Firm Growth in Vietnam: : Interaction with Financial Constraints By F. Zhou; W.J.W. Botzen
  29. Economic Analysis of Natural Forest Disturbances: A Century of Research By Claire Montagné-Huck; Marielle Brunette
  30. Is National Environmental Legislation Affecting Emissions? By Thais NUNEZ-ROCHA; Inmaculada MARTíNEZ-ZARZOSO

  1. By: Jambor, Attila; Babu, Suresh Chandra
    Abstract: The issues of food security and agricultural competitiveness are central to agricultural and food policy making in the 21st century. Although developed and developing countries are at different stages of achieving food security and their agricultural competitiveness varies, they face a common and increasingly urgent challenge: feeding their growing populations with finite natural resources. The issues, constraints, and challenges related to competitiveness and food security have not been fully understood or studied in the context of policy making at the national and global levels.
    Keywords: agriculture; food security; trade; agricultural policies; sustainability; health; education; economic competition; market access; land markets; risk management; natural resources management; resource management; technology; innovation; innovation adoption,
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Andersen, Lykke E.; Groom, Ben; Killick, Evan; Ledezma, Juan Carlos; Palmer, Charles; Weinhold, Diana
    Abstract: We introduce a hybrid simulation model ('SimPachamama') designed to explore the complex socio-environmental trade-offs of alternative policy bundles and policy sequencing options for stemming deforestation and reducing poverty in tropical countries. Designed and calibrated to the initial conditions of a small forest village in rural Bolivia, the model consists of: (a) an optimising agricultural household module of heterogeneous agents that make individually optimal land-use decisions based on factor endowments and market conditions; (b) an encompassing general equilibrium ‘shell’ module that endogenously determines wages and links the agricultural labour market and rural-urban migration rates; and (c) a novel user-controlled policy-maker module that allows the user to make ‘real time’ choices over a variety of public and environmental policies that in turn impact land use, welfare, and migration. Over a 20-year simulation period the results highlight trade-offs between reductions in deforestation and improvements in household welfare that can only be overcome either when international REDD payments are offered or when decentralized deforestation taxes are implemented. The sequencing of policies plays a critical role in the determination of these results.
    Keywords: simulation; Bolivia; deforestation; land use; policy; REDD
    JEL: Q23 Q28 Q56 R14
    Date: 2017–05–01
  3. By: Spielman, David J.; Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Dorosh, Paul A.; Ahmad, Nuzhat
    Abstract: While policy makers, media, and the international community focus their attention on Pakistan’s ongoing security challenges, the potential of the rural economy, and particularly the agricultural sector, to improve Pakistanis’ well-being is being neglected. Agriculture is crucial to Pakistan’s economy. Almost half of the country’s labor force works in the agricultural sector, which produces food and inputs for industry (such as cotton for textiles) and accounts for over a third of Pakistan’s total export earnings. Equally important are nonfarm economic activities in rural areas, such as retail sales in small village shops, transportation services, and education and health services in local schools and clinics. Rural nonfarm activities account for between 40 and 57 percent of total rural household income. Their large share of income means that the agricultural sector and the rural nonfarm economy have vital roles to play in promoting growth and reducing poverty in Pakistan.
    Keywords: economic development; agricultural development; rural areas; agricultural policies; climate change; productivity; nutrition; food consumption; poverty; irrigation; water use; land use; land management; infrastructure; seeds; fertilizers; gender; women,
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Emeline Hily (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Economie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France; BETA, University of Lorraine, 13 Place Carnot – CO n°70026. 54035 NANCY Cedex - France); Martin Drechsler (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Ecological Modelling); Franck Wätzold (Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Chair of Environmental Economics)
    Abstract: Climate change is expected to be one of the key threats for biodiversity conservation in this century. Conservation literature has pointed to the inadequacy of current biodiversity conservation practices relying predominantly on static approaches and showed the need to develop “climate-proof” conservation strategies. However, this debate has taken place largely in the conservation planning literature so far and ignored incentivebased conservation policy instruments such as conservation payments. Our general understanding is thus poor about how should conservation payments be designed so that they can contribute to biodiversity conservation under climate change in a cost-effective manner. In this work we develop an ecological-economic model and investigate the cost-effectiveness of various payment design options involving varying degrees of payments’ differentiation and targeting in a landscape whose dynamics is driven by climate change, while considering the impact of changes in key economic and ecological parameters. We provide the first comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of conservation payment designs in a changing climate on a conceptual level. Our results demonstrate the significant cost-effectiveness gains enabled by payments’ differentiation and targeting for biodiversity conservation under climate change. Moreover, we demonstrate the existence of connectivity/area trade-offs under climate change. The cost-effectiveness performance of targeted payments compared to untargeted differentiated payments increase with a decreasing species dispersal ability but decrease with decreasing climate stability in the landscape.
    Keywords: Biodiversity, Conservation payments, Cost-effectiveness, Climate change, Ecological-economic modeling, Spatio-temporal dynamics
    JEL: Q19 Q54 Q57
    Date: 2017–01
  5. By: Jonathan Lenglet (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Etude des Ressources Forêts-Bois, 54042 Nancy Cedex); Jean-Yves Courtonne (STEEP team, INRIA Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes, Montbonnot, France; Université Grenoble Alpes, France; Artelia Eau et Environnement, Echirolles, France); Sylvain Caurla (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Économie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France)
    Abstract: In the context of national policies for climate mitigation and energy transition, the forestwood sector is drawing increasing attention, not only for energy wood but also for longer-life timber products. At the same time, part of the French timber transformation industry suffers from difficulties to adapt to recent changes on global markets, which translates into net exports of raw wood and imports of transformed products, detrimental to both the trade balance and the local creation of wealth. This article first aims at objectifying this situation by undertaking the first material flow analysis of the French forest-wood supply chain. We then evaluate the potential consequences of various scenarios of raw wood exports reduction policies, namely subsidies for consumption or transformation and taxation of exports, on both economic outcomes for the different actors and material flows. We thus provide an example of coupling material flow analysis with economic modeling in an attempt to move from the diagnostic phase to the assessment of possible actions within a decision-making perspective.
    Keywords: Wood-flow analysis, Wood sector, Log exports, Forest sector models.
    JEL: C80 C63 Q23
    Date: 2016–04
  6. By: Serge Garcia (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Economie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France); Claudio Petucco (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Economie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France); Bo Jellesmark Thorsen (Department of Food and Resource Economics and Center for Macro Ecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C,; Suzanne Elizabeth Vedel (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark,
    Abstract: Forests provide ecosystem services jointly with timber production. In some cases, private forest owners implement management actions in order to enhance the provision of such services. They may get direct benefits from this decision such as private amenity values or effects on (e.g., hunting), they may have altruist traits in their utility function for providing public goods (e.g., biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration), or they may be incited for by a public authority and compensated for the costs. Specifically, this paper focuses on the decision of setting aside forest land. It raises the more general question of the efficiency of multiple-use vs. specialized management of forest lands. We propose an econometric analysis to identify factors of the set-aside choice and to measure the impact of this decision on forest management costs. A flexible cost function is modelled and estimated for both types of management. The percentages of old/mature deciduous and old/mature coniferous forests are used as biodiversity and carbon indicators. Results show that the set-aside choice depends on the landowners’ income and on their socio-economic characteristics. Set-aside decision has a significant and positive impact on the management costs. This implies that the additional private and public benefits achieved from specialized relative to multiple-use management should exceed this cost premium.
    Keywords: Forest; multiple-use vs. specialized management, household production model, cost function, corner solution, recursive mixed system
    JEL: Q41 Q48 Q23
    Date: 2017–04
  7. By: Wendong Zhang (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Wei Zhang; Chad E. Hart (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD))
    Abstract: Abstract Using agricultural professionals’ forecasts of future farmland values and corn and soybean cash prices for their service area, we analyze whether their land and corresponding crop price expectations are consistent. We find that changes in expected land prices over time are positively correlated with expected crop price changes, suggesting these two forecasts are somewhat consistent. More importantly, we find that the linkage between these two forecasts is significantly stronger in the medium- and long-term as opposed to the short-term, as well as a substantially stronger correlation for districts that have heavier reliance on crop production as a net farm income source.
    Date: 2018–02
  8. By: Wendong Zhang (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Michael D. Duffy
    Abstract: While many opinion-based surveys ask land values for different land quality classes, little is known how survey respondents perceive the land quality. Using the 2015 Iowa Land Value Survey, this article examines how respondents perceive land quality in their responses to land value questions. Our results show agricultural professionals seem to perceive land quality with respect to specific regions, and high, medium and low land quality should be interpreted locally within a crop reporting district. This case study suggests that it is difficult to generalize uniform yield or soil productivity index ranges for land quality questions in all opinion-based surveys.
    Date: 2017–01
  9. By: Gabriel E. Lade (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); James Bushnell
    Abstract: The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is among the largest renewable energy mandates in the world. The policy is enforced using tradeable credits that implicitly subsidize biofuels and tax fossil fuels. The RFS relies on these taxes and subsidies to be passed through to consumers to stimulate demand for biofuels and decrease demand for gasoline and diesel. Using station-level prices for E85 (a high-ethanol blend fuel) from over 450 retail fuel stations, we show that pass-through of the ethanol subsidy is, on average, complete. However, we find that full pass-through takes four to six weeks and that local market structure of gasoline stations influences both the speed and overall level of pass-through. JEL Codes: Q42, Q58, H23
    Keywords: retail fuel markets, E85, renewable fuel standard, subsidy pass-through
    Date: 2016–12
  10. By: Matthew S. Clancy; GianCarlo Moschini (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD))
    Abstract: Biological innovations in agriculture did not enjoy protection by formal intellectual property rights (IPRs) for a long time, but the recent trend has been one of considerable broadening and strengthening of these rights. We document the nature of these IPRs and their evolution, and provide an assessment of their impacts on innovation. We integrate elements of the institutional history of plant IPRs with a discussion of the relevant economic theory and a review of applicable empirical evidence. Throughout, we highlight how the experience of biological innovation mirrors, or differs from, the broader literature on IPRs and innovation. We conclude with some considerations on the relation between IPRs and market structure and the pricing of proprietary inputs in agriculture
    Date: 2017–01
  11. By: John C. V. Pezzey (Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University)
    Abstract: The social cost of carbon (SCC), a carbon price calculated from cost-benefit based integrated assessment models and used to inform some climate policies, will always be highly disputed, partly because a key model assumption, the centennial climate damage valuation function (CDF), will "always" be highly unknowable. Current disputes are highlighted here by the huge range of SCCs resulting from alternative values of key parameters like discount rates, climate sensitivity and the CDF; by the implausibility to climate scientists of a leading model's warming projections; and by strong criticisms of mainstream CDFs by many climate economists. The claim that statistical analyses of "weather" impacts on local economies can improve centennial CDFs rests on untestable out-of-sample extrapolation. Compared to astronomy, geology and other earth sciences, prediction testing in climate science is generally harder because of Earth's uniqueness, and the unprecedented range and speed of likely centennial climate change, but stable underlying laws make modelling based on past observations meaningful. By contrast, the added complexity of human behaviour means there are no reliable laws for modelling centennial CDFs. For this reason alone, SCCs will always be disputed. I suggest instead more use of carbon prices based on marginal abatement costs, computed on cost-effective paths that achieve socially agreed, physical climate targets. Downplaying the SCC approach to carbon prices poses challenges to many economists, and a cost-effectiveness approach is no panacea, but it avoids the illusion of optimality, and allows more detailed analysis of many current climate policies.
    Keywords: Climate policy, cost-benefit analysis, global warming, centennial damage valuation, high unknowability, cost-effectiveness analysis
    JEL: Q54 Q51 D80 D61 E17 C18
    Date: 2018–01
  12. By: GianCarlo Moschini (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Harvey E. Lapan; Hyunseok Kim
    Abstract: We construct a tractable multi-market equilibrium model designed to evaluate alternative biofuel policies. The model integrates the US agricultural sector with the energy sector and it explicitly considers both US ethanol and biodiesel production. The model provides a structural representation of the renewable fuel standard (RFS) policies, and it uses the arbitrage conditions defining the core value of renewable identification number (RIN) prices to identify the relevant competitive equilibrium conditions. The model is parameterized, based on elasticities and technical coefficients from the literature, to represent observed 2015 data. The model is simulated to analyze alternative scenarios, including: repeal of the RFS; projected 2022 RFS mandates; and, optimal (second best) mandates. The results confirm that the current RFS program considerably benefits the agriculture sector, but also leads to overall welfare gains for the United States (mostly via beneficial terms of trade effects). Implementation of projected 2022 mandates, which would require further expansion of biodiesel production, would lead to a considerable welfare loss (relative to 2015 mandate levels). Constrained (second-best) optimal mandates would entail more corn-based ethanol and less biodiesel than currently mandated.
    Date: 2017–06
  13. By: Halkos, George; Gkargkavouzi, Anastasia; Matsiori, Steriani
    Abstract: In this study we examine the multi-dimensional structure of environmental behavior and its potential domains. Factor analysis reveal six behavioral domains: civic actions, policy support, recycling, transportation choices, behaviors in a household setting and consumerism. We use the Connectedness to Nature and Inclusion of Nature in Self scales to measure connection with nature, the New Environmental Paradigm to measure ecological worldviews, and Environmental Motives Scale to assess people’s environmental concern. We further explore the predictive power of connectedness to nature, ecological worldview, and environmental concern for explaining the diverse behavioral domains. Connectedness to nature and ecological worldview were more predictive of civic actions, recycling, household behaviors, and consumerism than were environmental concerns. In the case of policy support and transportation choices, environmental concerns explained more variance than the other constructs.
    Keywords: Environmental behavior; connectedness to nature; ecological worldview; environmental concern.
    JEL: A14 C38 Q00 Q51 Q56 Q59
    Date: 2018–02–17
  14. By: Derya Keles (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Economie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France); Johanna Choumert (Economic Development Initiatives (EDI) Limited, High Wycombe, United Kingdom.); Pascale Combes-Motel (Centre d’Etude et de Recherche sur le Développement International (CERDI), UMR CNRS 6587, University of Clermont Auvergne, Clermont-Ferrand, France); Eric N. Kéré (African Development Bank, Abidjan, Ivory Coast)
    Abstract: In this article, we explore the role of biofuel production on deforestation in developing and emerging countries. Since the 2000s biofuel production has been rapidly developing to address issues of economic development, energy poverty and reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the sustainability of biofuels is being challenged in recent research, particularly at the environmental level, due to their impact on deforestation and the GHG emissions they can generate as a result of land use changes. In order to isolate the impact of bioethanol and biodiesel production among classic determinants of deforestation, we use a fixed effects panel model on biofuel production in 112 developing and emerging countries between 2001 and 2012. We find a positive relationship between bioethanol production and deforestation in these countries, among which we highlight the specificity of Upper-Middle-Income Countries (UMICs). An acceleration of incentives for the production of biofuels, linked to a desire to strengthen energy security from 2006 onwards, enables us to highlight higher marginal impacts for the production of bioethanol in the case of developing countries and UMICs. However, these results are not significant before 2006 for developing countries, and biodiesel production appears to have an impact on deforestation before 2006 on both subsamples. These last two results seem surprising and could be related to the role of biofuel production technologies and the crop yields used in their production.
    Keywords: Biofuel production; land use change; forest cover loss; panel data.
    JEL: Q16 Q23 Q55
    Date: 2017–09
  15. By: Wendong Zhang (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Kristine Tidgren
    Abstract: Purpose – This paper examines the current farm economic downturn and credit restructuring by comparing it with the 1920s and 1980s farm crises from both economic and regulatory perspectives. Design/methodology/approach – This paper closely compared critical economic and regulatory aspects of the current farm downturn with two previous farm crises in the 1920s and 1980s, and equally importantly, the golden eras that occurred before them. This study compares key aggregate statistics in land value, agricultural credit, lending regulations, and also evaluates the situations and impacts on individual farmer households by using several case studies. Findings – We argue that there are at least three economic and regulatory reasons why the current farm downturn is unlikely to slide into a sudden collapse of the agricultural markets: strong, real income growth in the 2000s, historically low interest rates, and more prudent agricultural lending practices. The current farm downturn is more likely a liquidity and working capital problem, as opposed to a solvency and balance sheet problem for the overall agricultural sector. We argue that the trajectory of the current farm downturn will likely be a gradual, drawn-out one like that of the 1920s farm crisis, as opposed to a sudden collapse as in the 1980s farm crisis. Originality/value – Our review provides empirical evidence for cautious optimism of the future trajectory of the current downturn, and argues that the current downturn is much more similar to the 1920s pattern than the 1980s crisis. Keywords: Farm crisis, farm downturn, land value, farm income, agricultural credit, interest rate Manuscript Type: General Review
    Date: 2018–02
  16. By: Danne, Michael; Mußhoff, Oliver
    Abstract: It is alleged that larger farms are less willing to adopt animal welfare-friendly production systems, though empirically-based knowledge on this issue is still lacking. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyze pig and sow producer preferences for the adoption of animal welfare standards (AWS), with primary interest in herd size effects on producers' adoption behavior. A survey was carried out with pig (n = 103) and sow (n = 63) producers in Germany. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted to analyze herd size effects on producer adoption of AWS. Producers' attitudes about the economic feasibility of animal welfare are affected by the herd sizes. The results of the DCE indicate that larger herd sizes in pig production are correlated with lower adoption of outdoor yards and bedding material, while adoption of the remaining AWS is unaffected by herd size. Sow producers show no herd size-related differences in acceptance of the analyzed AWS. The standard criticism regarding the lack of animal welfare adoption on large farms was not supported by this study. Identifying herd-size effects on the producers' adoption behavior for AWS may be an important step in clarifying the discussion about animal welfare in intensive production systems. Furthermore, the identified heterogeneity in the producers' preferences underlines the need for identification of the most effective animal welfare strategies for farms of various structures without endangering profitability. In this regard, policy is suggested to support strategies that directly improve animal welfare on farms of all sizes instead of targeting a decrease in farm size. The study is the first to demonstrate empirically based knowledge about herd size effects on the farmers' adoption of AWS.
    Keywords: animal welfare,herd size,pig production,discrete choice experiment
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Christine Hradek; Helen H. Jensen (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Nicole Schimerowski Miller; Miyoung Oh
    Abstract: The Expanded Food and Nutrition Education Program (EFNEP) and the Family Nutrition Program (FNP) (the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program-Education, or SNAP-Ed in Iowa) are community outreach programs in Iowa designed to help teens and adults who have limited income and are parenting acquire the knowledge, skills, attitudes, and practices to improve total family diet and nutritional well-being. This study uses current information on Iowa's EFNEP and FNP today to evaluate the costs and benefits of the two related programs and provides updated information to a study conducted in Iowa from 1998 to 2000.
    Date: 2017–11
  18. By: Paul Rougieux (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Économie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France); Olivier Damette (BETA, University of Lorraine, 13 Place Carnot – CO n°70026. 54035 NANCY Cedex - France)
    Abstract: In a panel of European countries, we analyze paper products, sawnwood and wood panels’ consumption data. With this object, we use a classical demand model where national consumption depends on real Gross Domestic Product and real prices. In contrast to previous panel estimations in the literature, we highlight non stationarity time series which can lead to spurious regressions. We explicitly take into account the issue by using recent panel cointegration techniques. Cointegration is present for printing paper and fibreboard, though less clear cut for other products. Then we estimate demand elasticities and find that GDP elasticities are significantly lower than estimates from the literature. Finally, we simulate the implications of modified demand elasticities by using a partial equilibrium model of the forest sector. For most products, changes in elasticities would lead to lower projected demand and lower prices over a 20 years time horizon. Lower solid wood and wood fibre demand would lead to fewer tensions with fuel wood and wood based chemical markets. In a context of rising interest for bio-based products, updated long term demand models contribute to the analysis of the forest sector's sustainability.
    Keywords: Wood demand functions, Cointegration
    JEL: C31 Q23 Q24
    Date: 2016–07
  19. By: Nicola Francesco Dotti
    Abstract: Knowledge plays an essential key role in the policymaking process for interpreting the available information, defining policy issues at stake and evaluating possible solutions – especially in complex policy issues like water management. However, for city-regions, knowledge is often a scarce resource due to the small size of the policy community, context-specific issues, limited availability of resources and experts, as well as the challenge of addressing complex issues that are often supra-local. This paper explores which patterns of local knowledge promote policy change and learning. Starting from the ‘policy paradigm’ concept, a cognitive–evolutionary approach is applied to analyse Brussels’ water management policy, which aims to address the major challenge of flooding. The variety of knowledge by local actors, the role of the policy paradigm of the local policymaking community in vetting information and evaluating alternative solutions, and the importance of local governments for retaining knowledge, are the main dimensions to understanding policy change and learning. City-regions benefit from direct contacts between actors facilitating exchange of knowledge, while supra-local decisions (e.g. EU directives) and local accidents can also trigger major changes. Based on my findings, policymakers tend to rely on technocratic patterns using already available knowledge, mainly whether decentralisation reshapes the policymaking community. While a technocratic pattern determines only minor changes and institutional instability undermines policy learning, policy entrepreneurs and participative patterns can promote major changes and learning if they are able to engage in dialogue with the dominant policy paradigm.
    Keywords: Brussels; city-region; decentralisation; knowledge; Policy change and learning; policy paradigm; policymaking; water
    Date: 2018–01
  20. By: Tröster, Bernhard
    Abstract: The concept of the 'resource curse' has typically been used to explain the adverse effects of resource abundance on economic growth and development. More recently, however, the validity of this approach has been challenged. Not the abundance of natural resources per se, but the ability to cope with the volatility of commodity prices is now seen as one of the major factors for the development of commodity-dependent low-income countries (CDLICs). The reduction of economic uncertainty caused by unstable commodity prices is therefore a central policy objective. Policy interventions at both, the global regional and national level targeting commodity price stability are necessary for resource-rich countries in order to implement commodity-based development strategies, which can ultimately lead to structural change.
    Date: 2018
  21. By: Martins, C. L.; Melo, Teresa; Pato, Margarida Vaz
    Abstract: In Martins et al. (2016), we proposed a novel mixed-integer linear programming model to redesign a multi-echelon food bank supply chain network over a multi-period planning horizon. The three dimensions of sustainability, i.e. economic, environmental and social goals, were addressed by considering three conflicting objective functions in the model. In the present paper, which we refer to as Part II, we refine the mathematical formulation and present a computational study conducted on a set of test instances that reflect the characteristics of the food bank network managed by the Portuguese Federation of Food Banks in the south of Portugal. The trade-offs that occur under the three conflicting objectives are evaluated for a subset of non-dominated solutions obtained with lexicographic ordering. The insights drawn from several comparative analyses also contribute to a better understanding of the impacts of food collection and distribution.
    Keywords: food rescue and delivery,sustainability,supply chain network design,tri-objective problem,social impact,economic and environmental performance
    Date: 2017
  22. By: Jonas Ngouhouo Poufoun (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Économie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France); Philippe Delacote (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Économie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France)
    Abstract: Very few scientific studies have focused on the determinants of households’ livelihoods’ strategies in the Congo Basin. The aim of this paper is to understand which factors drive the choice of portfolio activities in rural regions. More precisely, the role of human, financial, natural and location assets in the portfolio choice is investigated. A unique dataset is used from our recent survey with 1035 random and stratified households in 108 villages of the Tridom landscape to investigate household preferences between (1) specialization and diversification strategies, (2) land-conversion and non-land-conversion activities, and (3) between strategies relying on forest vs other strategies. Our results show significant similarities on the likelihood of households living in the same neighborhood to prefer a given livelihoods strategy. Beside socioeconomic characteristics, the existence of human-wildlife conflict, as well as the indigenousness, directly leads household’s heads to make the choice of diversified strategies, or to choose activities related to land-conversion. These choices lead to some significant spillover effects on the likelihood of neighboring household’s heads to adopt the same strategies.
    Keywords: Forest-based livelihoods, Agriculture and cash crop, Diversification strategies, Deforestation, Spatial Spillover Effects, Spatial Autoregressive Probit.
    JEL: C11 C21 C25 D12 Q12 Q23
    Date: 2016–05
  23. By: Eskander, Shaikh M.S.U.; Barbier, Edward B.; Gilbert, Ben
    Abstract: Resource-dependent households often diversify their income. We model demand for remittances and supply of off-resource labor as a joint decision, and discuss household tradeoffs. We extend the off-farm labor supply literature to a rural fishery, contrasting our results to common findings in the farm literature and providing empirical evidence of the interdependence between education and family structure in determining income diversification. Using a unique dataset from Malaysia, we find that more educated households are less likely to diversify their income, with caveats depending on family composition. Policy implications for resource management in a remittance economy with alternative livelihoods are discussed.
    JEL: J24 Q22
    Date: 2018–02–01
  24. By: Karen Thome; Birgit Meade; Stacey Rosen; John C. Beghin
    Abstract: Purpose: We analyze several dimensions of food security in Ethiopia, taking into account projected population growth, economic growth, and price information to estimate future food consumption by income decile. The analysis looks at the potential impact of large consumer price increases on food security metrics. Methodology: We use USDA ERS's new modeling framework for its annual International Food Security Assessment. The modeling approach captures economic behavior by making food demand systematically responsive to income and price changes—a demand specification well-grounded in microeconomic foundations. The projected change in food consumption can be apportioned to population growth, income growth, and changes in food prices and real exchange rates. Findings: Ethiopia is highly food-insecure, with 54% of the population (52 million people) consuming less than 2,100 calories a day in the base year (average 2013–15). Income growth under unchanged prices mitigates food insecurity with the number of food insecure people falling to 42.5 million in 2016. If domestic prices were free to fall with world market prices, the food insecure population would decrease further to 36.1 million. If domestic prices increased because of domestic supply shocks and constrained imports, the food-insecure population could rise to 64.7 million. The food gap (i.e., the amount of food necessary to eliminate food insecurity in the whole country) would reach 3.6 million tons. Implications: The current policy of promoting food security through autarky has some severe limitations. Allowing private traders to import food grains and hedge price variations and exchange rate changes, would greatly improve food security in Ethiopia.
    Keywords: food security, Ethiopia, food demand, food gap, price increase, food imports JEL codes: Q17, Q18
    Date: 2016–08
  25. By: Claudio Petucco (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Economie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France); Pablo Andrés-Domenech (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Economie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France); Lilian Duband (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Economie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France)
    Abstract: Wind storms are one of the most important risks for forest management. After a storm hits a forest stand the forest owner has two possibilities: clear cut and start a new rotation or keep the standing trees until maturity. We compute the Land Expectation Value (LEV) under the risk of windthrow and introduce an endogenous rule to account for this decision. We compare the result with the alternative - often used in the literature- of clear cut and replant by default after each storm. We calibrated our model to represent maritime pine plantations in south-western France. Our results show that roughly 75% of the time it is profitable to keep the standing trees until maturity. So doing the forest owner may increase payoffs by up to 90% when the economic risk (i.e. probability of having a storm) is high. Although payoffs are sensitive to economic risk, the optimal rotation age does not change much with significant increases in the risk probability.
    Keywords: Faustmann; land expectation value; optimal rotation age; risk; windthrow; wind storm; forestry; pine; plantation; Landes
    JEL: Q20 Q23 Q54
    Date: 2017–06
  26. By: Thomas Kuhn (Chemnitz University of Technology, Department of Economics, Professur VWL IV Finanzwissenschaft); Radomir Pestow (Chemnitz University of Technology, Department of Economics, Professur VWL IV Finanzwissenschaft); Anja Zenker (Chemnitz University of Technology, Department of Economics, Professur VWL IV Finanzwissenschaft)
    Abstract: In this paper, we discuss the endogenous formation of climate coalitions in an issue-linkage regime. In particular, we propose to build a link to the issue of preferential free trade. Trade privileges exclusively granted to members of the climate coalition work as an incentive mechanism for countries to join in. A multi-stage strategic trade framework is used in which coalition (fringe) countries can dispose of a policy set comprising a discriminatory import-tariff on dirty goods as well as producer emission permits traded on a common (local) permits market. A fairly novel modelling of the preferential free trade area is incorporated which is at the core of our approach. We find strong support for the claim that trade liberalization can promote relatively large and effective climate coalitions compared to the single issue regime. As a policy implication, negotiations on international climate treaties and free trade arrangements should be interlinked.
    Keywords: Climate Change, International Environmental Agreements, Free Trade, Issue Linkage, Emission Permits
    JEL: Q54 Q56 F18 F15 Q58
    Date: 2018–02
  27. By: Felgendreher, Simon (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: The paper analyzes how consumers access information about ethical certificates and how access to this information influences consumers’ purchasing decisions. Using an experimental market game and letting consumers choose between a certified and an uncertified product, this study finds that consumers do not ignore information about the effectiveness of ethical certificates in a systematic manner. Also, as long as the access to information is costless, varying the way it is provided to consumers does not influence the purchasing decision between a certified and an uncertified product. However, consumers are extremely price sensitive: once a small cost for information is introduced, most consumers are not willing to access it, and the share of consumers buying the certified product decreases significantly.
    Keywords: information; strategic ignorance; experiment; market; ethical consumption; Fair Trade; Fairtrade; ethical labels
    JEL: C91 D12 D64 D89
    Date: 2018–01
  28. By: F. Zhou; W.J.W. Botzen
    Abstract: The theory on the disaster impacts on firm growth is ambiguous and the empirical evidence on this topic is scarce, which hampers the design of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation policies. This paper estimates growth models of the impacts of natural disasters on labour, capital, and value-added growth of firms in the short run, and identifies the role of financial constraints in shaping disaster outcomes. The analysis uses a comprehensive enterprise census data (2000-2009) and also two different types of disaster measures from Vietnam: the physical intensity measures and the socioeconomic damage measures. We apply the Blundell-Bond generalized method of moments (GMM) to estimate firm level disaster impacts, and find robust evidence that natural disasters on average increase firm growth significantly. We also find stronger positive impacts in labour and output growth for more constrained firms. We argue that this occurs because financially more constrained firms substitute labour for capital during the reconstruction phase after a disaster.
    Keywords: Natural disaster, disaster impact, firm growth, financial constraints, disaster measure
    Date: 2017
  29. By: Claire Montagné-Huck (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Economie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France); Marielle Brunette (UMR INRA – AgroParisTech, Laboratoire d’Economie Forestière, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France)
    Abstract: Natural disturbances have always affected forest ecosystems, altering or disrupting the flows of goods and services provided by forests. In response, people have had to adapt their economic activities and decisions to take such hazards into account and to limit their consequences. In this paper, we conduct a survey on how economic analysis deals with such an issue, considering the different natural hazards affecting forests. Our database includes 340 papers collected from 1916 to 2014. We use an original Driver-Pressure-State-Impact- Response model to present our analysis of the literature.
    Keywords: forest, economics, risk, natural disturbance, hazard
    JEL: Q23 Q54
    Date: 2017–08
  30. By: Thais NUNEZ-ROCHA; Inmaculada MARTíNEZ-ZARZOSO
    Date: 2018

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