nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2018‒03‒05
seventeen papers chosen by

  1. Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to Member States. A medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model By Petra Salamon; Martin Banse; Jesus Barreiro Hurle; Ondrej Chaloupka; Trevor Donnellan; Emil Erjavec; Thomas Fellmann; Kevin Hanrahan; Marlen Hass; Roel Jongeneel; Verena Laquai; Myrna van Leeuwen; Andras Molnar; Marie Pechrova; Guna Salputra; Willy Baltussen; Josef Efken; Sophie Helaine; Jobst Jungehulsing; Oliver Von Ledebur; Ilona Rac; Fabien Santini
  2. A partial equilibrium analysis of India's agricultural export to GCC: looking beyond the status quo(2009-2015) By Ayyub, Salahuddin; Manral, Prerana
  3. Effects if Fertilizer Subsidies in Zambia: A Literature Review By Zinnbauer, Maximilian; Mockshell, Jonathan; Zeller, Manfred
  4. Evaluation of the Burkina Faso Agriculture Development Project Design Report By Christopher Ksoll; Chantal Toledo; Seth Morgan; Anca Dumitrescu; Kristen Velyvis
  5. Revisiting the old debate: on the relationship between size and productivity in Tanzania By Basile Boulay
  6. Fuel Subsidy Pass-Through and Market Structure: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard By Gabriel E. Lade; James Bushnell
  7. Scenar 2030 - Pathways for the European agriculture and food sector beyond 2020 By Robert M'barek; Jesus Barreiro-Hurle; Pierre Boulanger; Arnaldo Caivano; Pavel Ciaian; Hasan Dudu; Maria Espinosa Goded; Thomas Fellmann; Emanuele Ferrari; Sergio Gomez Y Paloma; Celso Gorrin Gonzalez; Mihaly Himics; Kamel Louhichi; Angel Perni Llorente; George Philippidis; Guna Salputra; Peter Witzke; Giampiero Genovese
  8. Threshold Policy Effects and Directed Technical Change in Energy Innovation By Lionel Nesta; Elena Verdolini; Francesco Vona
  9. The Impact of Conditional Cash Transfers on Households Investments in Productive Assets and Activities: Evidence from the Juntos Programme in Peru By Cristina Cirillo; Giorgia Giovannetti
  10. Effects of Water Quality, Sanitation, Handwashing, and Nutritional Interventions on Diarrhoea and Child Growth in Rural Kenya: A Cluster-Randomised Controlled Trial By Clair Null; Christine P. Stewart; Amy J. Pickering; Holly N. Dentz; Benjamin F. Arnold; Charles D. Arnold; Jade Benjamin-Chung; Thomas Clasen; Kathryn G. Dewey; Lia C. H. Fernald; Alan E. Hubbard; Patricia Kariger; Audrie Lin; Stephen P. Luby; Andrew Mertens; Sammy M. Njenga; Geoffrey Nyambane; Pavani K. Ram; John M. Colford; Jr.
  11. Rural Electrification Using Shield Wire Schemes By Franklin K. Gbedey; David Vilar Ferrenbach; Tatia Lemondzhava
  12. Aid to agriculture, trade and take-off By Alessandra Pelloni; Thanasis Stengos; Ilaria Tedesco
  13. Global Commodity Prices and Global Stock Volatility Shocks By Vespignani, Joaquin; Kang, Wensheng; Ratti, Ronald
  14. The impact of rural tourism on land use. The case of Tuscany By Filippo Randelli; Federico Martellozzo
  15. How to become a leader in an emerging new global market: The determinants of French wine exports, 1848-1938 By María Isabel Ayuda; Hugo Ferrer-Pérez; Vicente Pinilla
  16. Can climate mitigation help the poor? Measuring impacts of the CDM in rural China By Yimeng Du; Kenji Takeuchi
  17. Speculative Activity and Returns to Volatility of Chinese Major Agricultural Commodity Futures By Martin T. Bohl, Pierre Siklos, Claudia Wellenreuther

  1. By: Petra Salamon (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI)); Martin Banse (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI)); Jesus Barreiro Hurle (European Commission – JRC); Ondrej Chaloupka (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information); Trevor Donnellan (Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority (TEAGASC)); Emil Erjavec (University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty); Thomas Fellmann (European Commission – JRC); Kevin Hanrahan (Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority (TEAGASC)); Marlen Hass (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI)); Roel Jongeneel (Wageningen Economic Research Institute (WEcR)); Verena Laquai (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI)); Myrna van Leeuwen (Wageningen Economic Research Institute (WEcR)); Andras Molnar (Research Institute of Agricultural Economics (AKI)); Marie Pechrova (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information); Guna Salputra (European Commission – JRC); Willy Baltussen (Wageningen Economic Research Institute (WEcR)); Josef Efken (Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI)); Sophie Helaine (European Commission – DG AGRI); Jobst Jungehulsing (Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Germany); Oliver Von Ledebur (Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Germany); Ilona Rac (University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty); Fabien Santini (European Commission – DG AGRI)
    Abstract: Every year the European Commission provides mid-term projections for agricultural markets. These projections are reported for the EU-28 aggregate and split into EU-15 and EU-N13 to reflect the diversity existing between the pre- and post-2004 Member States. However, the diversity of European agriculture goes beyond these two aggregates. This report presents the results of projections for agricultural markets in the EU Member States by 2026, generated using the AGMEMOD (Agriculture Member State Modelling) model. The projections are consistent with the European Commission's 2016 Mid-Term Outlook and represent production, consumption, yields, and trade for the main commodity groups (cereals, oilseeds, dairy and meats). In addition, the main characteristics of the model and the partnership that manages it are described. The report also provides examples of further analysis that can be performed with AGMEMOD in terms of country- or region-specific developments, focusing on agricultural markets in the EU-N13, and in terms of the relations between a single Member State and the rest of the EU, in this case focusing on the United Kingdom and the EU. Furthermore, an analysis of the implementation of coupled support in the EU Member States is presented. The report finishes with some testimonies of policy makers about the role AGMEMOD plays in their policy analysis, and sketching how AGMEMOD might develop in the mid-term.
    Keywords: AGMEMOD, modelling, agriculture
    Date: 2017–12
  2. By: Ayyub, Salahuddin; Manral, Prerana
    Abstract: GCC fulfills 60 to 90 percent of its food demand through imports. Currently GCC imports 12 percent of its Agriculture products from India. An effort has been made in this paper to understand the trend and pattern of India’s Agriculture export to GCC with the help of Descriptive Statistics and to find out the impact of tariff reduction on India’s agriculture export to GCC Partial Equilibrium Analysis (Smart Analysis) has been used and BRCA has been used to find out the agriculture products where India has comparative advantage in GCC import market and to make a comparative analysis of GCC countries as a destination of India’s agriculture export. In case of zero tariff in GCC, India’s agriculture export will see highest growth in Saudi Arabia ($106 Million) followed by UAE ($89 Million), Kuwait ($40 Million), Qatar ($23 Million), Oman ($22 Million) and Bahrain ($6 Million). Out of 231 agriculture products, India has highest average number of products with BRCA in Qatar (76), followed by Oman (74), Kuwait (67), Bahrain (59), UAE (52) and Saudi Arabia (28).
    Keywords: GCC, India, Smart Analysis, RCA
    JEL: F1 F17 Q1
    Date: 2017–07
  3. By: Zinnbauer, Maximilian; Mockshell, Jonathan; Zeller, Manfred
    Abstract: Fertilizer subsidies are again part of the policy agenda in Sub-Saharan Africa since the 1990s. Governments spend large shares of their agricultural budgets and their means to fight poverty on such programmes, but economists formulated doubts whether these investments will pay off. This paper reviews the existing literature on effects of fertilizer subsidies in Zambia, presents an analytical framework on input subsidies and compares the empirical evidence to the goals of the fertilizer subsidy. Major findings are that the subsidy programme has failed to substantially reduce poverty and to improve food security via decreased maize prices. Farm incomes have increased moderately, but the overall costs exceed the benefits by far. Reasons for this are identified as poor targeting, diversion and leakage. The paper concludes with a review of policy recommendations, mainly focused on improved targeting and diversification away from pure fertilizer subsidies.
    Keywords: fertilisier subsidies, input subsidies, Zambia, food security
    JEL: Q01 Q12 Q13
    Date: 2018–01–25
  4. By: Christopher Ksoll; Chantal Toledo; Seth Morgan; Anca Dumitrescu; Kristen Velyvis
    Abstract: Mathematica is evaluating the Millennium Challenge Corporation’s (MCC) Agricultural Development Project in Burkina Faso, which is seeking to increase agricultural production through the construction of irrigation infrastructure, provision of land tenure documents and farmer training.
    Keywords: Agriculture, irrigation, international development, Burkina Faso
  5. By: Basile Boulay
    Abstract: The debate on the existence of an inverse relationship between farm size and productivity is probably one of the oldest debates in the development economics literature. While publication of more detailed agricultural data has pushed for an empirical revival of the topic, the concept of size is still problematic in these studies, as well as the limited attention given to existing varieties of farming practices. Using agricultural data on Tanzania, we introduce a crop/plot level of analysis which allows us to enquire whether an inverse relationship exists for crops grown on a given plots. In a context where intercropping is widespread, this level of analysis looks more appealing than the more traditional plot or farm levels. We control for the existing hypotheses in the literature that could explain the existence of the relationship. Further, we propose to control for a new set of hypotheses which have not received enough attention in the existing literature. Our results show that the inverse relationship is strikingly robust at this new level of analysis: yields are on average higher on smaller cultivated areas in all specifications and for all crops.
    Keywords: inverse relationship; agriculture; Tanzania
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Gabriel E. Lade (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); James Bushnell
    Abstract: The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is among the largest renewable energy mandates in the world. The policy is enforced using tradeable credits that implicitly subsidize biofuels and tax fossil fuels. The RFS relies on these taxes and subsidies to be passed through to consumers to stimulate demand for biofuels and decrease demand for gasoline and diesel. Using station-level prices for E85 (a high-ethanol blend fuel) from over 450 retail fuel stations, we show that pass-through of the ethanol subsidy is, on average, complete. However, we find that full pass-through takes four to six weeks and that local market structure of gasoline stations influences both the speed and overall level of pass-through. JEL Codes: Q42, Q58, H23
    Keywords: retail fuel markets, E85, renewable fuel standard, subsidy pass-through
    Date: 2016–12
  7. By: Robert M'barek (European Commission – JRC); Jesus Barreiro-Hurle (European Commission – JRC); Pierre Boulanger (European Commission – JRC); Arnaldo Caivano (European Commission – JRC); Pavel Ciaian (European Commission – JRC;; Hasan Dudu (European Commission – JRC); Maria Espinosa Goded (European Commission – JRC;; Thomas Fellmann (European Commission – JRC); Emanuele Ferrari (European Commission – JRC); Sergio Gomez Y Paloma (European Commission - JRC); Celso Gorrin Gonzalez (European Commission - JRC); Mihaly Himics (European Commission – JRC); Kamel Louhichi (European Commission - JRC); Angel Perni Llorente (European Commission – JRC;; George Philippidis (European Commission – JRC;; Guna Salputra (European Commission – JRC); Peter Witzke; Giampiero Genovese (European Commission – JRC;
    Abstract: Analysing stylised scenarios with economic modelling tools reveals complex relations, incentives and trade-offs of the different policy instruments, in particular regarding the environmental dimension. Marginal areas of the EU are most vulnerable to drastic policy changes.
    Keywords: Common Agricultural Policy, EU, IFM-CAP, MAGNET, CAPRI, Trade
    Date: 2017–12
  8. By: Lionel Nesta (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, Gredeg, & OFCE Sciences Po Paris, France); Elena Verdolini (FEEM & CMCC, Italy); Francesco Vona (OFCE Sciences Po Paris France & Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, Gredeg,)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of environmental policies on the direction of energy innovation across countries over the period 1990-2012. Our novelty is to use threshold regression models to allow for discontinuities in policy effectiveness depending on a country's relative competencies in renewable and fossil fuel technologies. We show that the dynamic incentives of environmental policies become effective just above the median level of relative competencies. In this critical second regime, market-based policies are moderately effective in promoting renewable innovation, while commandand-control policies depress fossil based innovation. Finally, market-based policies are more effective to consolidate a green comparative advantage in the last regime. We illustrate how our approach can be used for policy design in laggard countries.
    Keywords: Directed technical change, threshold models, environmental policies, policy mix.
    JEL: Q58 Q55 Q42 Q48 O34
    Date: 2018–01–30
  9. By: Cristina Cirillo (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa); Giorgia Giovannetti
    Abstract: This paper provides an impact evaluation of the Juntos programme on households’ decisions to invest in livestock and agricultural and non-agricultural assets used for income generating activities. Using Propensity Score Matching and Difference in Difference techniques, we show: i) that beneficiaries are significantly more likely to invest in productive assets and activities with respect to non-beneficiaries; ii) that Juntos is more likely to relax liquidity constraints rather than to be used as an insurance for risky investments; iii) that the programs benefits the poor but not the poorest of the poor. Duration and transfers regularity do not produce significant differences between groups of beneficiaries. However, results show a sustained impact of the programme over time.
    Keywords: conditional cash transfers; impact evaluation; households investments; Juntos.
    JEL: I38 H20 O12 H43
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Clair Null; Christine P. Stewart; Amy J. Pickering; Holly N. Dentz; Benjamin F. Arnold; Charles D. Arnold; Jade Benjamin-Chung; Thomas Clasen; Kathryn G. Dewey; Lia C. H. Fernald; Alan E. Hubbard; Patricia Kariger; Audrie Lin; Stephen P. Luby; Andrew Mertens; Sammy M. Njenga; Geoffrey Nyambane; Pavani K. Ram; John M. Colford; Jr.
    Abstract: Poor nutrition and exposure to faecal contamination are associated with diarrhoea and growth faltering, both of which have long-term consequences for child health.
    Keywords: Water quality, sanitation, handwashing, Kenya
    JEL: F Z
  11. By: Franklin K. Gbedey; David Vilar Ferrenbach; Tatia Lemondzhava
    Keywords: Energy - Electric Power Energy - Energy Policies & Economics Energy - Rural Energy Poverty Reduction - Access of Poor to Social Services Rural Development - Rural Communications Rural Development - Rural and Renewable Energy
    Date: 2017–10
  12. By: Alessandra Pelloni (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Italy; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis); Thanasis Stengos (Department of Economics, University of Guelph, Canada; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis); Ilaria Tedesco (International Fund for Agricultural Development, Italy)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of foreign aid to agriculture on the industrialization process of developing countries. Our theoretical analysis suggests a dichotomy between closed and open economies as regards the impact of aid given for productive purposes to the primary sector. Our empirical results confirm our analysis, as we find the effect is positive for landlocked countries only.
    Keywords: Dual economy, Agricultural aid, Industrialization, Landlocked countries
    JEL: F1 F4 O1 O4 Q1
    Date: 2018–02
  13. By: Vespignani, Joaquin; Kang, Wensheng; Ratti, Ronald
    Abstract: This paper investigates the time-varying dynamics of global stock volatility, commodity prices, and domestic output and consumer prices. The main empirical findings of this paper are: (i) stock volatility and commodity price shocks impact each other and the economy in a gradual and endogenous adjustment process; (ii) the impact of a commodity price shock on global stock volatility is far greater during the global financial crisis than at other times; (iii) the effects of global stock volatility on the US output are amplified by the endogenous commodity price responses; (iv) in the long run, shocks to commodity prices (stock market volatility) account for 11.9% (6.6%) and 25.1% (11.6%) of the variation in US output and consumer prices; (v) the effects of global stock volatility shocks on the economy are heterogeneous across nations and relatively larger in the developed countries; (vi) developing/small economies are relatively more vulnerable upon commodity price shocks.
    Keywords: Global commodity prices, Global stock volatility, Output, Heterogeneity
    JEL: E0 E00 E30
    Date: 2018–01–01
  14. By: Filippo Randelli (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa); Federico Martellozzo (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa)
    Abstract: Rural tourism (RT) has grown in many rural regions worldwide and today it is a stable driver of rural development. In this paper we argue that the growth of RT has to be totally divergent from seaside tourism development that tends to create holiday resorts and artificial villages with no identity. To built-up new houses in order to increase accommodation facilities in rural areas could have a twofold negative effect: compromise the beauty of the landscape, a basic local resource, and develop a rural mass tourism. In order to monitor the impact of RT on land use we propose to analyse the development of new building areas in the countryside using a GIS (Geographical Information System) approach. The main source of data for this analysis are the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) of the European Union. The analytical model will be applied to the case of Tuscany.
    Date: 2018
  15. By: María Isabel Ayuda (Universidad de Zaragoza, Department of Economic Analysis, Faculty of Economics and Business Studies); Hugo Ferrer-Pérez (CREDA-UPC-IRTA, Edifici ESAB-PMT); Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón -IA2- (Universidad de Zaragoza-CITA), Department of Applied Economics)
    Abstract: When studying the emergence of new global markets it is essential to consider how countries and companies compete to obtain advantageous positions. Our objective is to study how France obtained an initial leadership position in the new global wine market which it subsequently consolidated. We will also analyse the main determinants of its exporting success. In order to do this we have quantified its exports and examined its evolution and its principal export markets. We have also used a gravity model for both ordinary wine and high quality wine in order to establish the key variables that explain this evolution. The article highlights the great efforts made by the exporters to improve the quality of their products and increase their sales using modern marketing techniques. Our econometric results also show some significant differences between the determinants of exports for the two types of wine. However, the exports of both products suffered the strong impact of a series of major events, such as The First World War, the Russian Revolution, the Prohibition in the United States and the Great Depression. The case of wine shows that the collapse of the first globalisation was not the same for all types of product.
    Keywords: Globalisation waves, Wine trade, French wine exports
    JEL: F14 N53 N54 N70 Q17
    Date: 2018–02
  16. By: Yimeng Du (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Kenji Takeuchi (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Abstract: This study aims to examine whether investment in climate change mitigation plays a role in poverty alleviation. We investigate impacts of the renewable energy-based clean development mechanism (RE-CDM) on rural communities in China. The impacts of RE-CDM projects are estimated by combining propensity score matching with the difference-in-differences approach. We found that the promotion of biomass-based CDM projects significantly contribute to income improvement, employment generation, and industrial transformation in rural communities in China. On the other hand, our estimation results reveal that large-scale wind and solar energy-based CDM projects have the potential to increase the labor force in the primary industry in rural areas.
    Keywords: CDM; renewable energy; poverty alleviation; rural development; propensity score matching; difference-in-differences
    Date: 2018–02
  17. By: Martin T. Bohl, Pierre Siklos, Claudia Wellenreuther (Wilfrid Laurier University)
    Abstract: Chinese futures markets for agricultural commodities are among the fastest growing futures markets in the world and trading behaviour in those markets is perceived as highly speculative. Therefore, we empirically investigate whether speculative activity in Chinese futures markets for agricultural commodities destabilizes futures returns. To capture speculative activity a speculation and a hedging ratio are used. Applying GARCH models we first analyse the influence of both ratios on the conditional volatility of eight heavily traded Chinese futures contracts. Additionally, VAR models in conjunction with Granger causality tests, impulse-response analyses and variance decompositions are used to obtain insight into the lead-lag relationship between speculative activity and returns volatility. For most of the commodities, we find a positive influence of the speculation ratio on conditional volatility. The results relying on the hedging ratio are inconclusive.
    Keywords: Speculation Ratio, Returns Volatility, Chinese Futures Markets, Agricultural Commodities
    JEL: E44 F30 G12 G13 G15
    Date: 2018–01–30

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