nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2018‒01‒29
24 papers chosen by
Angelo Zago
Università degli Studi di Verona

  1. Land Supply Elasticities By PHILIPPIDIS George; Helming John; Tabeau Andrzej
  2. Assessing potential coupling factors of European decoupled payments with the Modular Agricultural GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET) By BOULANGER Pierre; PHILIPPIDIS George; URBAN Kirsten
  3. Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50) By Hans van Meijl; Petr Havlik; Hermann Lotze-Campen; Elke Stehfest; Peter Witzke; Ignacio Perez Dominguez; Benjamin Bodirsky; Michiel van Dijk; Jonathan Doelman; Thomas Fellmann; Florian Humpenoeder; Jason Levin-Koopman; Christoph Mueller; Alexander Popp; Andrzej Tabeau; Hugo Valin
  4. The Prebish-Singer hypothesis in the post-colonial era: evidence from panel cointegration By Francesca Di Iorio; Stefano Fachin
  5. Impact of CAP Pillar II Payments on Agricultural Productivity By Hasan DUDU; Zuzana Smeets Kristkova
  6. Scale versus Scope in the Diffusion of New Technology: Evidence from the Farm Tractor By Daniel P. Gross
  7. A New Year, a New You? Heterogeneity and Self-Control in Food Purchases By Cherchye, Laurens; De Rock, Bram; Griffith, Rachel; O’Connell, Martin; Smith, Kate; Vermeulen, Frederic
  8. Food versus Fuel: An Updated and Expanded Evidence By Ondrej Filip; Karel Janda; Ladislav Kristoufek; David Zilberman
  9. Monitoring of agricultural policy developments in the Western Balkan countries By Tina Volk; Miroslav Rednak; Emil Erjavec; Edvin Zhllima; Grigor Gjeci; Sabahudin Bajramovic; Zeljko Vasko; Dragana Ognjenovic; Jakub Butkovic; Mihone Kerolli-Mustafa; Ekrem Gjokaj; Bekim Hoxha; Dragi Dimitrievski; Ana Kotevska; Ivana Janeska Stamenkovska; Aleksandra Martinovic; Darko Konjevic; Mirsad Spahic; Natalija Bogdanov; Ruzica Papic; Sasa Todorovic
  10. Are brand benefits perceived differently in less developed economies ? A scale development and validation By Jérôme Lacoeuilhe; Selima Ben Mrad; Samy Belaïd; Maria Petrescu
  11. Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities By Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou
  12. Land allocation between a multiple-stand forest and agriculture under storm risk and recursive preferences By Gaspard Dumollard; Stéphane De Cara
  13. Trade in Environmental Goods: Empirical Exploration of Direct and Indirect Effects on Pollution by Country’s Trade Status By Natalia Zugravu-Soilita
  14. When the farm-gate becomes a revolving door: An institutional approach to high labour turnover By Lotte Staelens; Céline Louche
  15. How MMEY mitigates bio-economic impacts of climate change on mixed fisheries By Adrien Lagarde; Abdoul Ahad-Cissé; Sophie Gourguet, Olivier Le Pape; Olivier Thébaud, Nathalie Caill-Milly; Gilles Morandeau, Claire Macher; Luc Doyen
  16. Water quality and recreational use of public waterways By Breen, Benjamin; Curtis, John; Hynes, Stephen
  17. Improving the predictability of commodity prices in US inflation: The role of coffee price By Afees A. Salisu; Raymond Swaray; Idris Adediran
  18. Recreational angling tournaments: participants’ expenditures By Curtis, John; O’Reilly, Paul; Breen, Benjamin
  19. Project-Based Carbon Contracts: A Way to Finance Innovative Low-Carbon Investments By Jörn Richstein
  20. Marketplace Options in an Emerging Economy Local Food Marketing System- Producers’ Choices, Choice Determinants and Requirements By Aashish Argade; Laha, A. K.
  21. Aggregation of importance measures for decision making in reliability engineering By Michele Compare; Michele Bellora; Enrico Zio
  22. Analyses of the functioning of Milk Package provisions as regards producer organisations and collective negotiations By Jo H.M. Wijnands; Jos Bijman; Tanja Tramnitzke
  23. Local market structure and consumer prices: Evidence from a retail merger By Rickert, Dennis; Schain, Jan Philip; Stiebale, Joel
  24. Anglers’ preferences for fishing site attributes By Breen, Benjamin; Curtis, John

  1. By: PHILIPPIDIS George (European Commission – JRC); Helming John; Tabeau Andrzej
    Abstract: The land supply elasticity with respect to the land price (land rent) is a key parameter in determining the land supply impacts of economic shocks and policies and the resulting impacts on food prices and food and nutrition security. For example, Elobeid at al., 2011 shows that halving the area expansion elasticities leads to 15% lower land expansion in Brazil necessary for 25% increase in ethanol consumption. However, values for land supply elasticities are rarely available in the literature. Due to lack of reliable time series data on land prices and concerns about the quality of Utilised Agricultural Area data, they are only available estimated for some countries of the world. In this overview we calculate land supply elasticities for several world regions and countries adapting method proposed in the literature and showing available published estimates. A comparison between current and new values of MAGNET land elasticities can be found in Appendix C. Appendix D gives a quick operating instruction on how to run MAGNET using the new land set of land supply elasticities in MAGNET.
    Keywords: modelling, Common agricultural policy
    Date: 2017–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc106592&r=agr
  2. By: BOULANGER Pierre (European Commission – JRC Seville); PHILIPPIDIS George (Aragonese Agency for Research and Development (ARAID) and Wageningen University & Research); URBAN Kirsten (Hohenheim University)
    Abstract: In 2020, decoupled payments will represent about 42% of the CAP budget (green payments excluded). This report assesses potential effects of European decoupled payments on farmers' production decisions, prior to a sensitivity analysis of different coupling factors using the Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET). Scientific literature reveals different coupling channels such as capitalisation in land value, farmers' risk behaviour, credit accessibility, uncertainty about future policies and labour allocation through which European decoupled payments influence farm choices and thus output. For each of these channels the relevant literature introducing theoretical and empirical assessments is evaluated with the aim to derive parameters that improve the representation of decoupled payments in economic simulation models. Within MAGNET, the traditional representation of decoupled payments is a subsidy to the land factor. Nevertheless it appears that the most suitable approach seems to split decoupled payments value into two components, capitalized into the land factor on the one hand, distributed across all factors of production on the other hand. A sensitivity analysis concludes that if one assumes a "degree" of coupling, it does have some implication for output and price results when conducting policy analysis.
    Keywords: Economic analysis, impact assessment, Common Agricultural Policy, agricultural trade, agricultural markets, modelling tools, database
    JEL: C68 F11 Q13 Q18
    Date: 2017–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc104276&r=agr
  3. By: Hans van Meijl (Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, The Netherlands); Petr Havlik (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria); Hermann Lotze-Campen (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany); Elke Stehfest (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, The Netherlands); Peter Witzke (EuroCARE, Bonn, Germany); Ignacio Perez Dominguez (European Commission - JRC); Benjamin Bodirsky (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany); Michiel van Dijk (Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, The Netherlands); Jonathan Doelman (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, The Netherlands); Thomas Fellmann (European Commission - JRC); Florian Humpenoeder (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany); Jason Levin-Koopman (Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, The Netherlands); Christoph Mueller (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany); Alexander Popp (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany); Andrzej Tabeau (Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, The Netherlands); Hugo Valin (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria)
    Abstract: This report presents a global integrated assessment of the range of potential economic impacts of climate change and stringent mitigation measures in the agricultural sector. The analysis employs five global multi-region multi-commodity models and covers selected combinations of socioeconomic storylines and climate signals by mid-century. Model inputs are harmonised by using the same projections for population and GDP growth, as well as relative biophysical crop yield changes due to climate change. Model results can differ depending on model characteristics and the specific quantitative implementations of the socioeconomic storylines.
    Keywords: agriculture, climate change, mitigation, adaptation, economic models, shared socioeconomic pathways
    Date: 2017–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc106835&r=agr
  4. By: Francesca Di Iorio (University of Naples Federico II); Stefano Fachin ("Sapienza" University of Rome)
    Abstract: We test the Prebish-Singer hypothesis that commodity prices tend to decline relatively to manufactured goods prices using a panel cointegration bootstrap test, for the period 1950-2011. We find partial support for the hypothesis, which appears to hold for Food and Non Food agricultural products but not for Metal goods.
    Keywords: Prebish-Singer hypothesis, commodity prices, panel cointegration, bootstrap.
    JEL: C22 C33 O13 Q11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sas:wpaper:20181&r=agr
  5. By: Hasan DUDU (European Commission - JRC); Zuzana Smeets Kristkova
    Abstract: The impact of agricultural subsidies on productivity has long been discussed in the literature without any clear conclusions. Many studies attempted to shed light on the topic by using various methods and data (mostly relying on geographically limited farm-level data). Depending on the model specification, statistical method and data source mixed results are reported. This study aims at estimating the impact of common agricultural policy Pillar II payments on agricultural productivity by using NUTS-2 level data for the years 2007-2013 for the EU member state countries. We use a rather novel approach by simultaneously estimating a CES production function with productivity coefficients linked to the Pillar II payments. We use 4 categories of Pillar II payments (i.e. human capital, physical capital, agro-environmental and rural development) to explain the total factor productivity in agricultural sector. Our results suggest that regions receiving higher Pillar II payments for physical capital investments, human capital development or agro-environmental measures increase productivity. On the other hand, payments related to rural development do not have significant impact on productivity. The results do not change among the member states, date of access to the EU (i.e. old or new member states), spatial characteristics (i.e. being in the south, north or east) or size of the countries (i.e. big or small economies).
    Keywords: productivity, agricultural subsidies, CAP policies
    Date: 2017–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc106591&r=agr
  6. By: Daniel P. Gross
    Abstract: Using the farm tractor as a case study, I show that lags in technology diffusion arise along two distinct margins, which I term scale and scope. Though tractors are now used in nearly every agricultural field operation and in the production of nearly all crops, they first developed with much more limited application. Early diffusion was accordingly rapid in these narrower applications, but limited in scope until tractor technology generalized. The sequence of diffusion is consistent with a model of R&D in specific- versus general-purpose attributes and with other historical examples, suggesting that the key to understanding technology diffusion lies not only in explaining the number of different users, but also in explaining the number of different uses.
    JEL: N52 O13 O32 O33 Q16
    Date: 2017–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24125&r=agr
  7. By: Cherchye, Laurens (KU Leuven); De Rock, Bram (ECARES, Free University of Brussels); Griffith, Rachel (University of Manchester); O’Connell, Martin (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London); Smith, Kate (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London); Vermeulen, Frederic (KU Leuven)
    Abstract: We document considerable within-person (over time) variation in diet quality that is not fully explained by responses to fluctuations in the economic environment. We propose a two-selves model that provides a structural interpretation to this variation, in which food choices are a compromise between a healthy and an unhealthy self, each with well-behaved preferences. We show that the data are consistent with this model using revealed preference methods. The extent of self-control problems is higher among younger and lower income consumers, though this is overstated if we do not control for responses to fluctuations in the economic environment. Our results are intuitively related to stated attitudes on self-control.
    Keywords: two-selves model, self-control, revealed preferences
    JEL: C14 D12 D90 I12
    Date: 2017–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11205&r=agr
  8. By: Ondrej Filip (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic); Karel Janda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Dept. of Banking and Insurance, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of Economics, Namesti Winstona Churchilla 4, 130 67 Prague, Czech Republic); Ladislav Kristoufek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic); David Zilberman (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, 207 Giannini Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA)
    Abstract: This paper replicates and extends the study of Zhang et al. (2010): „Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?" Energy Policy 38, pp. 445-451. We confirm the findings of the original paper that there was only a weak relationship between ethanol and food commodities in the period between March 1989 and July 2008. In addition, we extend that study and examine the cointegration relationship between biofuels and related commodities for a considerably enlarged dataset (3 vs. 1 market, 26 vs. 8 commodities, analysis up till 2017 vs. 2008, weekly vs. monthly data frequency). Focusing on the biofuel markets of Brazil, the EU and the USA in the three separate periods before, during, and after the food crisis of 2007 and 2008, we show that studying the time variation of the relationships plays an essential role in their proper understanding. Our results help to clarify the wide extensive discussion about the role of biofuels prices in food shortages manifested particularly during the food crises. In agreement with the original study, we confirm that price series data do not support strong statements about biofuels uniformly serving as main leading source of high food prices and consequently the food shortages.
    Keywords: biofuels; fuels; food; cointegration
    JEL: Q16 Q42 Q56
    Date: 2017–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2017_26&r=agr
  9. By: Tina Volk (Agriculture Institute of Slovenia); Miroslav Rednak (Agriculture Institute of Slovenia); Emil Erjavec (University of Ljubljana); Edvin Zhllima (Agriculture University of Tirana); Grigor Gjeci (Albanian Ministry of Agriculture); Sabahudin Bajramovic (University of Sarajevo); Zeljko Vasko (University of Banja Luka); Dragana Ognjenovic (University of Sarajevo); Jakub Butkovic (Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relation of Bosnia and Herzegovina); Mihone Kerolli-Mustafa (International Business College Mitrovica); Ekrem Gjokaj (Kosovo Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development); Bekim Hoxha (Kosovo Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development); Dragi Dimitrievski (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University of Skopje); Ana Kotevska (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University of Skopje); Ivana Janeska Stamenkovska (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University of Skopje); Aleksandra Martinovic (University of Donja Gorica); Darko Konjevic (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Montenegro); Mirsad Spahic (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Montenegro); Natalija Bogdanov (University of Belgrade); Ruzica Papic (University of Belgrade); Sasa Todorovic (University of Belgrade)
    Abstract: This reports provides the analysis of agricultural policies in the Western Balkans (WB) countries. This reports attempts to show (i) the main development patterns in production and trade in WB; (ii) an overview of the new policy framework (new programming documents from the period 2013-2015) and its implementation; (iii) the scope and structure of budgetary transfers to agriculture in regional comparison and also in terms of approximation with the CAP; and (iv) the main characteristics of direct producer support in the region. The analyses cover primarily the period 2010-2015.
    Keywords: Agricultural policy, Western Balkans, Rural development, EU integration, EU accession
    JEL: Q17 Q18
    Date: 2017–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc105784&r=agr
  10. By: Jérôme Lacoeuilhe (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée); Selima Ben Mrad (Nova Southeastern University); Samy Belaïd (Ecole de Management de Normandie); Maria Petrescu (Nova Southeastern University)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to develop a scale measuring consumers’ brand benefits in less developed economies. Based on the literature, items have been generated in qualitative and quantitative studies and tested by using exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. The findings show that brand benefits converge into a two-factor structure (functional and symbolic) instead of three (functional, experiential and symbolic). These findings can be justified by the fact that consumers in developing economies do not have as much experience with brands as the ones from developed economies. The results also relate to previous literature findings on the topic of utilitarian and affective brand relationships. This scale can be used to advance the domain of brand benefits in a cross-cultural environment and can be employed by marketers when businesses plan to brand their products in developed economies.
    Keywords: Functional,Utilitarian,Symbolic,Affective,Measurement scale,Brand benefits,Less developed economies,Experiential
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01672929&r=agr
  11. By: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou
    Abstract: It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic activity. There have been numerous proposals for quantifying global real economic activity. We discuss which criteria a measure of global real activity must satisfy to be useful for modeling industrial commodity prices, we examine which of the many alternative measures in the literature are most suitable for applied work, and we explain why some popular measures are inappropriate for modeling commodity prices. Given these insights, we re-examine in detail whether global real economic activity has declined since 2011 and by how much. Drawing on a range of new evidence, we show that the global commodity price boom of the 2000s appears to have been largely transitory. Our analysis has important implications for the design of structural models of commodity markets, for the analysis of the transmission of commodity price shocks to commodity-importing and -exporting economies, and for commodity price forecasting.
    Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods; International topics
    JEL: F44 Q11 Q31 Q41 Q43
    Date: 2018
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:18-4&r=agr
  12. By: Gaspard Dumollard; Stéphane De Cara (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech)
    Abstract: This study aims to characterize steady-state land allocations between a multiple-stand forest and agriculture, when the forest is subject to a storm risk. The landowner is supposed to have recursive preferences, which permits to distinguish between in-tertemporal preferences and risk preferences. Using a stochastic dynamic programming model, we show that both land allocation and forest management depend on the risk and on both types of preferences at the steady-state. Risk aversion is shown to favor land allocation to agriculture and to reduce the forest average harvest age while the preference for a regular income is shown to favor forestry and to reduce the average harvest age.
    Keywords: Land allocation,Forest management,Recursive preferences,Stochastic Dynamic Programming
    Date: 2017–12–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01671595&r=agr
  13. By: Natalia Zugravu-Soilita (University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines)
    Abstract: Based on panel data covering 114 countries in the world, this study investigates the direct, indirect and total effects of trade flows in environmental goods (EG) on total CO2 and SO2 emissions. Our system-GMM estimations reveal positive direct scale – [between-industry] composition effects prevailing on the negative direct technique – [within-industry] composition effects (if any), as well as compensating the significant indirect technique effects channelled by the stringency of environmental regulations and per capita income. If the net importers of EGs (namely from the APEC54 and WTO26 lists) are recurrently found to face increased pollution (in particular CO2 emissions) due to direct scale-composition effects of trade in EGs, the EGs’ net exporters are more likely to see their local pollution to decrease, in particular thanks to income-induced effects. We show that the direct, indirect and total effects of trade in EGs depend on the country’s net trade status, the EGs’ classification and the pollutant considered.
    Keywords: Environmental Goods, Environmental Policy, Net Exporter, Net Importer, Pollution, Trade
    JEL: F13 F14 F18 Q53 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2017–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2017.56&r=agr
  14. By: Lotte Staelens (UGENT - Ghent University [Belgium]); Céline Louche (Audencia Business School)
    Abstract: By adopting an institutional theory lens, the aim of the article is to better understand the actions and mindset of managers toward high labour turnover in the cut-flower industry in Ethiopia. Our mixed-method approach explores the ways in which managers deal with, and legitimize, high levels of labour turnover. Our results show that they engage in three types of practices – predicting, containing and accommodating – whose objective is to make labour turnover tolerable, rather than reduce it. Interestingly, managers do not legitimize their practices through the use of cost-benefit arguments, as the literature would have suggested, but blame the institutional context. This article highlights the context-dependent aspects of labour turnover and explains how managers may find themselves in a deadlock situation. It informs the debate in human resource management research about managerial practices at the bottom of global value chains.
    Keywords: cut-flower industry, Ethiopia, global value chains, high labour turnover, institutional theory, intensive labour industries, legitimization
    Date: 2017–06–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01636921&r=agr
  15. By: Adrien Lagarde; Abdoul Ahad-Cissé; Sophie Gourguet, Olivier Le Pape; Olivier Thébaud, Nathalie Caill-Milly; Gilles Morandeau, Claire Macher; Luc Doyen
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of climate warming on the bio-economic performance of Bay of Biscay mixed fisheries and provides insights into the best management strategy for coping with global warming. To achieve this, a dynamic multi-species, multi-class, multi-fleets model is developed and calibrated using biological and environmental ICES and IPCC data. Fishing and economic data have been collected within the European DCF. The climate represented by the Sea Surface temperature is assumed to affect species recruitment. Three management strategies are then compared in terms of bio-economic outcomes: Status-Quo (SQ), Multi-species Maximum Sustainable Yield (MMSY), Multispecies Maximum Economic Yield (MMEY). Strategies are ranked with respect to two climate scenarios. Results exhibit that the SQ strategy is not sustainable and is characterized by a major decline of Sole. By contrast, the MMSY and the MMEY strategies improve the ecological state and economic performance of fisheries. Furthermore, the MMEY strategy provides higher bio-economic performances than MMSY. These bio-economic benefits are however altered by climate change effects. Under the MMEY, fleets with more diversified catches perform better facing climate change.
    Keywords: bio-economics ; scenarios ; global warming ; fisheries ; sustainability ; Bay of Biscay
    JEL: Q22 C53
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2017-22&r=agr
  16. By: Breen, Benjamin; Curtis, John; Hynes, Stephen
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:rb20170302&r=agr
  17. By: Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan); Raymond Swaray (Economics Subject Group, University of Hull Business, University of Hull, Cottingham Road, UK); Idris Adediran (Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria.)
    Abstract: In this paper, we set forth to answer the research question: can coffee price predict US inflation? Motivated by the importance of coffee to Americans and the significance of the coffee subsector to the US economy, we pursue three notable innovations. First, we augment the traditional Phillips curve model with coffee price as a predictor and show that the resulting model outperforms the traditional variant in both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of US inflation. Second, we justify the need to account for the inherent statistical features in the predictor as well as make a case for the superiority of Westerlund and Narayan (WN) estimator especially in the in-sample predictive model. These answer the research question in the affirmative with strong evidence that coffee price indeed serves as a good predictor, along with economic activity, for US inflation. These further challenge the position of Stock and Watson (1999, 2007, 2008) and establish that economic models can outperform statistical models for forecasting inflation.
    Keywords: OECD; US, Phillips curve, Coffee price, Inflation forecasts, Forecast evaluation
    JEL: C53 E31 E37
    Date: 2018–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cui:wpaper:0041&r=agr
  18. By: Curtis, John; O’Reilly, Paul; Breen, Benjamin
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:rb20170210&r=agr
  19. By: Jörn Richstein
    Abstract: Low and uncertain carbon prices are often stated as a major obstacle for industrial sector investments in technologies to deliver deep emissions reductions. Project-based carbon contracts underwritten by national governments could addressregulatory risk, lower financing costs and strengthen incentives for emission reductions at investment and operation stage. In this paper design options for project-based carbon contracts are assessed using an analytical model capturing risk aversion of investors with a meanvariance utility function. The model is also used to assess how a combination with grant support for innovative projects can minimize overall costs of innovation policy. Savings in financing costs are quantified using a stylized project finance cash flow analysis.
    Keywords: Emission trading systems, carbon contract, innovation support
    JEL: D81 Q48 Q54 Q55 Q58 O38
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1714&r=agr
  20. By: Aashish Argade; Laha, A. K.
    Date: 2018–01–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14584&r=agr
  21. By: Michele Compare; Michele Bellora; Enrico Zio (Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF/ECP/Supélec - LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec - SSEC - Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF/ECP/Supélec - Ecole Centrale Paris - SUPELEC - EDF R&D - Electricité de France Recherche et Développement - CentraleSupélec, LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec, SSEC - Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF/ECP/Supélec - Ecole Centrale Paris - SUPELEC - EDF R&D - Electricité de France Recherche et Développement - CentraleSupélec)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the aggregation of rankings based on component Importance Measures (IMs) to provide the decision maker with a guidance for design or maintenance decisions. In particular, ranking aggregation algorithms of literature are considered, a procedure for ensuring that the aggregated ranking is compliant with the Condorcet criterion of majority principle is presented, and two original ranking aggregation approaches are proposed. Comparisons are made on a case study of an auxiliary feed-water system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor.
    Date: 2017–03–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01652234&r=agr
  22. By: Jo H.M. Wijnands (Wageningen Economic Research); Jos Bijman (Wageningen University); Tanja Tramnitzke (Thünen-Institut)
    Abstract: This study aims at assessing the effectiveness and potential improvement of the Milk Package provisions, as regards the functioning of producer organisations and their role in collective negotiations with milk processors.
    Keywords: Food chain, Milk Package, Dairy sector, Producer Organisations,CAP
    JEL: Q13 Q18
    Date: 2017–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc107880&r=agr
  23. By: Rickert, Dennis; Schain, Jan Philip; Stiebale, Joel
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of a merger between a German supermarket chain and a soft discounter on consumer prices. We exploit geographic variation in prices within retail chains and brands and use a difference-in-differences estimator to compare regional markets with a change in market structure to a control group in unaffected markets. Our results indicate that both insiders and outsiders raised average prices after the merger, particularly in regions with high expected change in retail concentration. In contrast, we estimate price declines in regions that did not experience a rise in concentration but were potentially affected by cost savings within the merged entity. We also provide evidence that remedies imposed by competition authorities were not sufficient to o set anti-competitive effects.
    Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions,Ex-post Merger Evaluation,Retail Markets,RetailPrices,Competition
    JEL: D22 L11 L81 L66 K21
    Date: 2018
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:280&r=agr
  24. By: Breen, Benjamin; Curtis, John
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:rb20170103&r=agr

This nep-agr issue is ©2018 by Angelo Zago. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.