nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2017‒09‒24
27 papers chosen by

  1. The Cost of High Food Prices in West Africa By Thomas Allen
  2. To what extent will climate and land-use change affect EU-28 agriculture? A computable general equilibrium analysis By Martina Sartori; Davide Geneletti; Stefano Schiavo; Rocco Scolozzi
  3. Place branding, embeddedness and endogenous rural development: Four European cases By Mechthild Donner; Lummina Horlings; Fatiha Fort; Sietze Vellema
  4. The effects of land titling in Tanzania By Jehovaness Aikaeli; Thomas Markussen
  5. Reduced Form Evidence on Belief Updating under Asymmetric Information - The Case of Wine Expert Opinions By Bonnet, Céline; Hilger, James; Villas-Boas, Sofia B.
  6. Land Reform, Property Rights and Private Investment: Evidence from a Planned Settlement in Rural Tanzania By Francis Makamu
  7. Determinants of the Adoption of Organic Tea Production in Northern Vietnam: A Robustness Analysis By Nicolas Lampach; Phu Nguyen-Van; Nguyen To-The
  8. Trade Integration and the Polarisation of Eco-Labelling Strategies By Vera Danilina
  9. Protecting the environment during and after resource extraction By Ruth Greenspan Bell
  10. Productivity, technical efficiency and technological change in French agriculture during 2002-2014: A Färe-Primont index decomposition By K Hervé Dakpo; Yann Desjeux; Philippe Jeanneaux; Laure Latruffe
  11. Hurry up or wait: The effect of climate change and variability on the timing of private adaptation By Charles Sims; Sarah Null; Josue Medellin-Azuara
  12. Costs of production and willingness to pay for potato produced with a lower amount of agrochemicals. A case study in Argentina By Rodríguez, Julieta A.; Lupín, Beatriz; Lucca, Ana M. F.
  13. Are free loans of land really free? An exploratory analysis of risk-coping motives in land arrangements in the Northeast of Thailand By Gwendoline Promsopha
  14. Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11°C Warming? By Alice Favero; Robert Mendelsohn; Brent Sohngen
  15. La dynamique du marché mondial des produits laitiers By Malik Makhlouf; Etienne Montaigne
  16. On the impact of indirect competition for political influence on environmental policy By Fabien Prieur; Benteng Zou
  17. Wine and Food Route as a collective mark for wine tourism product: a sequential game By Sebastiano Patti
  18. Shock transmission in the International Food Trade Network. A Data-driven Analysis By Tiziano Distefano; Francesco Laio; Luca Ridolfi; Stefano Schiavo
  19. Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced cereal losses in India? By Francisco Pereira Fontes, Ashley Gorst, Charles Palmer
  20. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation and Emergency Food Pantry Use (Journal Article) By James Mabli; Julie Worthington
  21. Subjective income expectations and risks in rural India By Alok Kumar
  22. The Role of Inbound Tourist Flows in Promoting Exports By Zouheir El-Sahli
  23. Alternative Land Price Indexes for Commercial Properties in Tokyo By Diewert, Erwin; SHIMIZU, Chihiro
  24. Trade policy coordination and food price volatility By Christophe Gouel
  25. Complementary Currencies and Environmental Sustainability By Hélène Joachain
  26. Agricultural Fires and Infant Health By Tom Vogl; Marcos Rangel
  27. Industrial investments in agriculture in Central Africa. Establishing the conditions for sustainability and equity By Laurène Feintrenie; Jean-Marc Roda; Alain Rival

  1. By: Thomas Allen (OECD)
    Abstract: West African households were particularly affected by the food price crisis of 2007-08. As these households depend on markets for two-thirds of their food supplies, prices have become a key determinant of access to food. However, food prices are 30-40% higher in sub-Saharan Africa than in the rest of the world at comparable levels of per capita income. These price levels have a negative impact on the purchasing power of households and are a major factor of food and nutrition insecurity. Price monitoring systems need to be updated and strengthened. Increasing productivity, promoting regional trade and supporting food value chain development are three of the policy options available to decision-makers to drive down food prices sustainably.
    Keywords: competitiveness, food and nutrition security, food system, prices, regional trade
    JEL: F15 O11 Q11 Q13 Q18
    Date: 2017–09–22
  2. By: Martina Sartori (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari and Bocconi University); Davide Geneletti (University of Trento, Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering); Stefano Schiavo (University of Trento, Department of Economics and Management and School of International Studies); Rocco Scolozzi (University of Trento, Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the structural, joint implications of climate and land-use change on agriculture in the European Union, by means of a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. The counterfactual simulations are conducted at the year 2050 under the second Shared Socioeconomic Pathway. We find that climate and land-use change are likely to affect agricultural systems very differently across Europe. Northern countries are expected to benefit from climate change impacts, whereas other areas in Europe will suffer negative consequences in terms of reduced agricultural output, real income and welfare. The most vulnerable region is not made of Mediterranean countries, but rather Central Europe. Our results suggest that climate and land-use changes may exacerbate existing disparities within the EU. Therefore, appropriate adaptation strategies and a more flexible land-use are required to limit these negative consequences and possibly exploit the beneficial effects of climate change in some countries.
    Keywords: Agricultural productivity, climate change, land-use change, general equilibrium analysis
    JEL: C68 Q11
    Date: 2017
  3. By: Mechthild Donner (UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - CIHEAM - Centre International des Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier); Lummina Horlings (Planning Department - University of Groningen); Fatiha Fort (UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - CIHEAM - Centre International des Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier); Sietze Vellema (Knowledge, Technology and Innovation group - WUR - Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen])
    Abstract: This article deals with place branding on the regional scale, in the rural context of food and tourism networks in Europe. Place branding is linked to the concepts of endogenous rural development, territory and embeddedness, by analysing how the valorisation of specific rural assets takes shape. The overall objective is to provide more understanding of how the branding of rural regions can contribute to endogenous rural development. Four European regional rural cases on place branding are explored, two from France, one from Ireland and one from Germany. Described are pre-conditions for branding, brand management, cooperation forms and development outcomes. The analysis is based on interviews as primary data and various secondary data. The cases all involve multiple stakeholders, and integrate the capacities and needs of local people. The findings show different levels of societal, structural and territorial embeddedness, and that higher degrees of embeddedness contribute to a successful branding process. The results indicate that place branding can support endogenous rural development and benefits from the adoption of common values and joint reflections on brand extensions, although there remains a need for more consistent impact measurement methods.
    Keywords: place branding,rural areas,food network,embeddedness,regional development,endogenous development,public image,vertical integration,ireland republic,image de marque,milieu rural,intégration,développement endogène,développement régional,marketing,France,allemagne,irlande
    Date: 2016
  4. By: Jehovaness Aikaeli; Thomas Markussen
    Abstract: We use household survey data to investigate the effects of formal, private property rights to agricultural land on agricultural investment, land valuation and access to credit in Tanzania. Results show that while there are no detectable effects of formal, private land property rights (written documentation of ownership) on agricultural investment, land ownership documents nevertheless increase the market value of land substantially (more than 25 percent). One reason appears to be that well-documented private property rights facilitate the use of land as collateral for loans and therefore eases access to credit. The findings suggest that there are potentially significant, economic returns to systematic land titling in Tanzania and other countries, although more research is needed to firmly establish this conclusion.
    Date: 2017
  5. By: Bonnet, Céline; Hilger, James; Villas-Boas, Sofia B.
    Abstract: We estimate the effect of revealing expert opinion labels on wine product purchases by labelling a random subset of wine products within the consumers' retail shelf choice faced in a treated store. We use a detailed weekly product level panel scanner data set for labeled and unlabeled wines in the treated and comparable control stores before and after the implementation of a shelf labeling field experiment. We then combine the scanner data with additional information on the characteristics of each product, such as brand, varietal, region of production, and price point relative to other wines, to estimate the average and heterogeneous effects of the field experiment on wine consumption, shedding light into possible mechanisms behind those effects. First, we find there to be a positive and significant overall average effect and that demand increases more for higher score wines than for lower score wines. Additionally, we find that high scores matter more for prices in the lower quartile of the overall wine price distributions, which does not align with previous beliefs of consumers perceiving low price as signaling high quality. Our findings are instead consistent with pre treatment consumer behavior where consumers infer high quality for high prices, once quality is revealed. We find that demand does not move for these higher priced wine quartiles. We also estimate positive spillover effects of this experimental treatment within brand for untreated wines as the displayed average score of the wine brand increases. However, we find negative spillover effects for untreated wines that belong to intensively treated brands.
    Keywords: Field experiment; Labels; information; expert opinion; wine; product attributes
    JEL: C23 D12 H20
    Date: 2017–08
  6. By: Francis Makamu
    Abstract: I investigate the mass resettlement of rural population in Tanzania that occurred in early 1970s. The policy was implemented to strengthen the role of the state in establishing villages for communal production and development. The villagisation process that followed was implemented with unclear goals, haste and at some point coercion that it was unlikely to bring any short-term improvement in the rural economy. I exploit a recent survey data to examine the impact of the ujamaa operation on farming activities. The findings show that areas affected by the villagisation in which proprietary rights in land were given to households had significantly better transferability rights and had made significant investments in land. I detect improvement in access to rural credit market and a closing gender gap in land ownership.
    JEL: O12 O13
    Date: 2017–01–24
  7. By: Nicolas Lampach; Phu Nguyen-Van; Nguyen To-The
    Abstract: Increasing consumer awareness on sustainable and healthy food choices gave rise to a growing demand for organic tea in the past decades. Most of this demand is met by imports from developing countries. This article examines the main factors affecting the choice of farm households to adopt organic tea production in Northern Vietnam. We apply a logit model to survey data on 241 Vietnamese tea farming households. We assess the robustness of the results by addressing three important statistical issues: (i) regressor endogeneity, (ii) unobserved heterogeneity at farm level and (iii) missing values. The main results are chiefly robust and largely in line with the theoretical predictions. We find that farm households with higher revenues and located in rich natural and physical environments are significantly more inclined to adopt organic tea production. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that farm households being consulted by extension agents and belonging to a tea association increase the odds for the adoption of organic tea cultivation.
    Keywords: Organic farming; Regressor endogeneity; Unobserved heterogeneity; Multiple imputations method; Tea production; Vietnam.
    JEL: Q15 O33 Q18
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Vera Danilina (Aix-Marseille Univ. (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS, EHESS and Centrale Marseille)
    Abstract: Growing ecological concerns give rise to salient discussions of green policy impact within different social sciences domains. This research studies the outcomes of voluntary environmental labelling in autarky and upon trade integration in the presence of two types of heterogeneity, across countries and across producers. It investigates the impact of the two main types of eco-labels - multiple-criteria-based programmes (ISO Type I) and self-declared environmental claims (ISO Type II), both of which are simultaneously introduced due to the environmental concerns of consumers. The model illustrates the polarisation of eco-labels when the least productive firms tend to avoid green strategies, lower-middle productive and the most efficient firms are incentivized to greenwash, and the upper-middle productive firms choose trustful programmes. It also shows that voluntary green restrictions lead to substantial productivity effects in the market upon opening to international trade, conditionally, depending on the type of the labelling and the relative degree of environmental awareness across trading countries. The model predicts average market productivity losses and within segments productivity gains for the relatively more eco-concerned country, while the effects for the relatively less eco-concerned country are the opposite.
    Keywords: eco-labelling, Firm heterogeneity, trade integration, voluntary environmental regulation, firms productivity
    JEL: F18
    Date: 2017–07
  9. By: Ruth Greenspan Bell
    Abstract: Natural resources extraction inevitably imposes environmental injuries including diversion of scarce water away from pressing local needs, disruption of fragile ecosystems, and longer-range and often irreparable harm. These fall most forcefully on the local populations at or near the extraction sites but also beyond. Effective regulation is critical to balance immediate needs with longer-term considerations. Unfortunately, much extraction takes place in countries with weak institutions and poor success rates in addressing any of their environmental challenges and often rampant corruption undercutting fair application of rules. Improving practices requires a long and sustained commitment for everyone involved—the countries and industry.
    Date: 2017
  10. By: K Hervé Dakpo; Yann Desjeux; Philippe Jeanneaux; Laure Latruffe
    Abstract: The objective of the article is to assess productivity change in French agriculture during 2002-2014, namely total factor productivity (TFP) change and its components technological change and technical efficiency change. For this, we use the economically-ideal Färe-Primont index which verifies the multiplicatively completeness property and is also transitive, allowing for multi-temporal/lateral comparisons. To compare the technology gap change between the six types of farming considered, we extend the Färe-Primont to the meta-frontier framework. Results indicate that during 2002-2014, all farms experienced a TFP progress. Pig and/or poultry farms had the lowest TFP increase, while beef farms had the highest (19.1%). The latter farms had the strongest increase in technical efficiency, while technological progress was the highest for mixed farms. The meta-frontier analysis shows that field crop farms’ technology is the most productive of all types of farming.
    Keywords: total factor productivity (TFP), Färe-Primont index, meta-frontier, French farms
    JEL: D24 O47 Q10
    Date: 2017
  11. By: Charles Sims (Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy and Department of Economics, University of Tennessee); Sarah Null (Department of Watershed Sciences, Utah State University); Josue Medellin-Azuara (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of California-Davis)
    Abstract: Climate variability makes the future benefits of adaptation uncertain. When adaptation comes in the form of discrete investments that are difficult to adjust, this uncertainty creates an economic value (an option value) to delaying adaptation to collect more information. This option value suggests adaptation will be slower than predicted by benefit-cost analysis. However, it is unclear how increases in climate variability influence this adaptation option value. Addressing this knowledge gap becomes critically important since climate change in many areas will be characterized by temperature and precipitation that is more variable than historic conditions. This study uses down-scaled results from four different global circulation models and two different emission scenarios to determine how climate trends and variability influence an adaptation option value. Using water-saving irrigation investments in California’s Sacramento Valley as an example, results indicate that climate variability is an important predictor of private adaptation uptake but the influence of climate variability on adaptation shifts as the climate changes.
    Keywords: Climate change, adaptation, option value
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2017–09
  12. By: Rodríguez, Julieta A.; Lupín, Beatriz; Lucca, Ana M. F.
    Abstract: In Argentina, potato growing is carried out at different times of the year and regions. The Southeastern Buenos Aires Province (SEBA) is one of the most important areas. The main destination of the product for fresh consumption is the domestic market, and Spunta is the most commercialized variety. Conventional production is characterized by high cost and intensive use of agrochemicals. Several sectors of the population, concerned about the use of agrochemicals and their effects on health and the environment, are willing to pay a Premium for food produced with a lower environmental impact. This work is focused on analyzing if it is feasible to reduce the costs of production when a lower quantity of agrochemicals is employed, and to evaluate if consumers would be willing to pay a differential price for such product.
    Keywords: Costos de Producción; Disposición a Pagar; Papa; Productos Agroquímicos; Argentina;
    Date: 2017–07
  13. By: Gwendoline Promsopha (LEST - Laboratoire d'économie et de sociologie du travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper contributes to an emerging literature on the relationship between free exchange of land use rights and risk-coping motives in developing countries. We argue that in-depth empirical analysis of the nature of land arrangements is crucial to understand risk-coping motives in land tenure. Using mixed quantitative and qualitative data collected in Thailand, the paper proposes an innovative framework which looks at transfers of use rights in a continuum from pure market to free exchange. Land transfers are categorized along three dimensions: the nature of the relationship between the parties involved, the nature of the payment made, and how explicit the payment is in the contractual terms. The economic motivations in each of the consequent categories of land arrangement are then analyzed with a multinomial probit. Our main results suggest that while free loans of land are allegedly common practice in Thailand, only a small number of those transfers are really free. Most appear to be a `disguised form of rental contract' set by households who rely heavily on their risk-sharing network for risk-coping, and hold property rights vulnerable to family claims despite the presence of formal titles. Our preliminary results also confirm what the literature has previously shown: when confronted with local social norms and the economic rationales created by multimarket failures, a sound formal property rights system proves non- sufficient to establish de facto formal property rights.
    Keywords: Land tenure, risk coping
    Date: 2016–06–15
  14. By: Alice Favero (eorgia Institute of Technology); Robert Mendelsohn (Yale University); Brent Sohngen (Ohio State University)
    Abstract: It is well known that the forestry sector is sensitive to climate change but most studies have examined impacts only through 2100 and warming of less than 4°C. This is the first timber analysis to consider possible climate change impacts out to 2250 and warming up to 11°C above 1900 levels. The results suggest that large productivity gains through 2190 lead to a continued expansion of the global timber supply. However, as carbon fertilization effects diminish and continued warming causes forestland to continue to shrink, warming above 8°C is predicted to become harmful to the forest sector.
    Keywords: Climate change, RCP 8.5, Forestry, Dynamic optimization, Timber market
    JEL: Q5 Q23
    Date: 2017–09
  15. By: Malik Makhlouf (Université Mouloud Mammeri de Tizi-Ouzou); Etienne Montaigne (UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - CIHEAM - Centre International des Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier, Montpellier SupAgro - Centre International d'Etudes Supérieures Agronomiques)
    Abstract: The world dairy economy is entering a decade of relatively high and very volatile prices, with sustained demand for milk and dairy products, but also higher costs of production and new market instability. The main reason for the high price volatility typically lies in the imbalance between global demand for milk, driven by China and Russia, etc, and lacking and volatile supply. This dairy demand was previously proportional to the growth in world population, while in recent years, per capita consumption of several countries has increased significantly. From the supply side, global food markets are shrinking due to drought in countries traditionally over-suppliers, such as Australia, net exporters on the world market, and falling stocks in the European Union countries in connection with common agricultural policy options that aim to reduce export subsidies. The objective of this study is first to remind many milestones that have marked, over the past three decades, the dairy industry worldwide, following the movement of liberalization of this market. We then go back upstream of this sector to present the current situation of the global dairy herd and its geographic localisation, and the global dairy production and its availability in the continents. A particular focus will be on examining the current configuration of the world market, characterized by sustained demand and a supply that is expected to weaken slightly in the next decade, following the changes of policies in the exporting countries. The evolution of world prices of the main milk products, in an oligopolistic market, although lighten the tension that characterizes this market. The income of Algeria from oil is decreasing while the world price of milk and milk products is increasing.
    Abstract: L’économie laitière mondiale entre dans une décennie de prix relativement élevés et très volatiles, de demande soutenue de lait et de produits laitiers, mais aussi de hausse des coûts de production et de nouvelle instabilité des marchés. La principale raison de cette forte volatilité des prix, réside classiquement dans le déséquilibre entre la demande mondiale de lait, tirée par la Chine, la Russie, etc. et l’offre devenue insuffisante et volatile. Cette demande laitière était auparavant proportionnelle à la croissance de la population mondiale alors que, depuis quelques années, la consommation per capita de plusieurs pays a sensiblement augmenté. Du côté de l’offre, les marchés alimentaires mondiaux se réduisent du fait de la sécheresse dans les pays excédentaires, comme l’Australie, exportateurs nets sur le marché mondial, et la baisse des stocks dans les pays de l’Union Européenne en lien avec les options de politique agricole qui visent à réduire les subventions à l’exportation. L’objectif de cette étude est d’abord de bien rappeler les importantes étapes qui ont marqué, depuis ces trois dernières décennies, la filière laitière à l’échelle mondiale, à la suite du mouvement de libéralisation de ce marché. Nous remontons ensuite vers l’amont de cette filière pour présenter la situation actuelle du cheptel laitier mondial et sa répartition géographique, puis la production et la disponibilité laitière mondiale dans les différents continents. Un accent particulier est mis sur l’examen de la configuration actuelle du marché mondial, caractérisé par une demande soutenue et une offre qui devrait s’affaiblir légèrement, au cours de la prochaine décennie, suite aux changements des politiques des pays exportateurs. L’évolution des cours mondiaux des principaux produits laitiers, sur un marché oligopolistique, éclaire bien la tension qui caractérise ce marché. L’Algérie voit ses ressources pétrolières diminuer alors que le prix mondial du lait et des produits laitiers augmente.
    Keywords: lait,politique laitière,sécurité alimentaire,volatilité des prix,dairy policy,dairy world market,food security,price volatility,world market,dairy product,marché mondial,produit laitier,filière lait
    Date: 2016
  16. By: Fabien Prieur (Université Paris Nanterre); Benteng Zou (CREA, Université du Luxembourg)
    Abstract: Motivated by the history of climate politics in the US over the last decades, this paper aims at studying the impact of indirect competition for political influence, through environmental awareness raising vs disinformation campaigns, on environmental and economic performance. The analysis of the game in which groups devote efforts to bring the majority’s concern closer to their views shows a strong asymmetry in the results. Strategic interaction may lead the economy to a better situation in the long run, compared to what would prevail in the absence of lobbying. But this only occurs when the environmental group exhibits a radical ideology and people’s awareness is initially closer to that of the industrial group. By contrast, economies with very aggressive conservative groups and with people originally well aware of environmental problems can never benefit from the outcome of the game of political influence. The latter result is reinforced when one accounts for different lobbying powers and supremacy of industrial groups. This may explain why the US have failed to take action on global warming up to now.
    Keywords: Public persuasion, environmentalists, industrialists, environmental awareness, information campaigns, disinformation, game of political influence
    JEL: D72 C73 Q54
    Date: 2017
  17. By: Sebastiano Patti
    Abstract: The Wine and Food Routes (WFRs) identify socio-territorial entities, which involve many private and public actors. This paper will take into consideration just wineries and local counties. The purpose is to suggest WFR as a collective (trade)mark for wine tourism. This paper is theoretical and the methodology used concerns a game theoretical approach through which a sequential game of adhesion - exit model has been set-up. This work intends to show whether a WFR can be considered as a collective trademark to study the behavior of the wineries in evaluating to adhere or not to the WFR. The paper will also show that in some cases the adhesion to the WFR can appear to be too rigid for producers influencing in some way the good performance of the WFR itself. Further considerations should be taken regarding the relationship between the local stakeholders when WFR start functioning. The main finding is that the use of a collective trademark for wine tourism entrepreneurs is not always useful. The creation of a collective trademark can be efficient or not as well as the non creation of the mark. Its use can stimulate entrepreneurs to improve the quality of their goods and thus foster competition. The implications concern the fact that alliances among local players acting within WFR can generate improved quality of services, enhanced visibility and cross-marketing activities with other members and the involvement in local events. Furthermore, a strong relationship between entrepreneurs and public institutions in the short run should be a way to reinforce entrepreneurial co-operation and encourage further business development in the long run. The originality of this work regards the use of a game theoretical approach within the wine tourism sector.
    JEL: D R
    Date: 2017–04–26
  18. By: Tiziano Distefano (Department of Environmental, Land and Infrastructure Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Italy); Francesco Laio (Department of Environmental, Land and Infrastructure Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Italy); Luca Ridolfi (Department of Environmental, Land and Infrastructure Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Italy); Stefano Schiavo (Department of Economics and Management, Università di Trento, Italy; Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques - DRIC, France.)
    Abstract: Food Security is a longstanding concern worldwide. The expansion of global food markets brings benefits but also risks, such as shock transmission within the global network of trade relations. We focus on this last issue, from an empirical point of view, by analysing the di usion of trade shocks - defined as relevant drops in exported quantities - during the period 1986 - 2011, for four major staples (wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans) both at country level and global scale. We find that: (i) income per capita of importing countries matters in shock propagation; (ii) developing countries tend to absorb most of the negative export variation (i.e., the trade shock), and (iii) global food prices and real (tonnes) uxes of commodities are only weakly correlated, meaning that a quantity-based investigation provides additional information with respect to a price-based analysis. This work o ers a novel framework, complementary to the price-based literature, for the definition and measurement of the propagation of international food shocks.
    Keywords: food crisis, shock propagation, food security, international grain trade
    Date: 2017–09
  19. By: Francisco Pereira Fontes, Ashley Gorst, Charles Palmer
    Abstract: Drought events have critical impacts on agricultural production yet there is little consensus on how these should be measured and defined. This has implications for drought research and policy, which tends to either define droughts purely based on rainfall or focus uniquely on 'hot' droughts when temperature is considered. We develop a flexible, rainfall-temperature drought index which captures all dry events, including a previously overlooked class of drought that we term 'cold' droughts. Our index is applied to a panel dataset of Indian districts over the period 1966-2009. Results suggest a statistically significant relationship between the index and agricultural production. Cold droughts are found to have consistent, negative marginal impacts that are comparable to those of hot droughts. Estimates of average yield losses due to hot droughts are reduced by as much as 33% when cold droughts are omitted. The associated economic costs are even more severely underestimated, by up to 107%.
    Date: 2017–08
  20. By: James Mabli; Julie Worthington
    Abstract: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefit allotments are sufficient for some households, but 76% of SNAP households that enter the program while using pantries continue to do so about 6 months later, which underscores the need to assess the adequacy of SNAP benefit allotments in ensuring access to sufficient food for a healthy, active life.
    Keywords: SNAP , food stamps , food pantry , emergency food , benefit adequacy
    JEL: I0 I1
  21. By: Alok Kumar
    Abstract: This paper analyses the pattern and determinants of income risk and expectation in rural India. It uses unique primary survey data eliciting subjective income distribution from households in twelve villages in Bihar. It finds that expected future income is significantly and positively associated with its variance. Current income is a significant predictor of expected future income and its variance. While both expected future income and its variance increase with current income, there is a significant negative association between the coefficient of variation of future income and current income, suggesting that low-income households face greater variability in their income. Upper caste households and households reliant on non-agricultural income have significantly higher expected future income and variance. Income process is highly persistent. This paper is one of the first to utilize subjective expectation data to analyse income risk in a developing country.
    Date: 2017
  22. By: Zouheir El-Sahli (Aix-Marseille Univ. (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS, EHESS and Centrale Marseille)
    Abstract: While it is established that tourism benefits growth through increased employment and investments, it is not well understood whether tourism has an effect on exports. This paper explores exports as an additional channel through which tourism affects domestic economic activity. Using bilateral tourist and trade flows, I explore the causal effect of tourist flows on exports. To deal with endogeneity, I construct two instruments that I use on two different sets of exporters. The evidence points in the same direction. I find that tourism affects mainly the exports of differentiated products. Specifically, I find that tourism benefits the exports from non-OECD exporters of processed food products and this effect is only estimated for South-North trade with an elasticity close to 1. For European countries, the findings point in the same direction; tourism affects differentiated consumer products and processed food with elasticity close to 1, which adds plausibility to the earlier results. I also find a lagged effect for tourism mainly on the export of consumer goods (for the two samples) and processed food products (for European countries). The results suggest that exports is an additional channel through which tourism can stimulate domestic economic activity in the tourist destination.
    Keywords: tourism, globalization, trade, gravity, terrorism
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2017–05
  23. By: Diewert, Erwin; SHIMIZU, Chihiro
    Abstract: The SNA (System of National Accounts) requires separate estimates for the land and structure components of a commercial property. Using transactions data for the sales of office buildings in Tokyo, a hedonic regression model (the Builder’s Model) was estimated and this model generated an overall property price index as well as subindexes for the land and structure components of the office buildings. The Builder’s Model was also estimated using appraisal data on office building REITs for Tokyo. These hedonic regression models also generated estimates for net depreciation rates which can be compared. Finally, the Japanese Government constructs annual official land prices for commercial properties based on appraised values. The paper compares these official land prices with the land prices generated by the hedonic regression models based on transactions data and on REIT data. The results revealed that commercial property indexes based on appraisal and assessment prices lag behind the indexes based on transaction prices.
    Keywords: Commercial property price indexes, System of National Accounts, the builder’s model, transaction-based indexes, appraisal prices
    JEL: C2 C23 C43 D12 E31 R21
    Date: 2017–09–11
  24. By: Christophe Gouel (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech, AgroParisTech)
    Abstract: Many countries adjust their trade policies counter-cyclically with food prices, to the extent that the use of restrictions by food-exporting countries has occasionally threatened the food security of food-importing countries. These trade policies are inconsistent with the terms-of-trade motivation often retained to characterize the payoff frontier of self-enforcing trade agreements, as they can worsen the terms of trade of the countries that apply them. This article analyzes trade policy coordination when trade policies are driven by terms-of-trade effects and a desire to reduce domestic food price volatility. This framework implies that importing and exporting countries have incentives to deviate from cooperation at different periods: the latter when prices are high and the former when prices are low. Since staple food prices tend to have asymmetric distributions, with more prices below than above the mean but with occasional spikes, a self-enforcing agreement generates asymmetric outcomes. Without cooperation, an importing country uses its trade policy more frequently because of the concentration of prices below the mean, but an exporting country has a greater incentive to deviate from a cooperative trade policy because positive deviations from the mean price are larger than negative ones. Thus, the asymmetry of the distribution of commodity prices can make it more difficult to discipline export taxes than tariffs in trade agreements.
    Abstract: De nombreux pays ajustent leur politique commerciale de manière contracyclique par rapport aux prix alimentaires, au point que les restrictions aux exportations utilisées par beaucoup de pays exportateurs ont occasionnellement menacé la sécurité alimentaire des pays importateurs. Notre article analyse la coordination des politiques commerciales lorsque celles-ci sont motivées à la fois par la manipulation des termes de l'échange et par le désir de limiter la volatilité des prix alimentaires domestiques. Ce cadre théorique implique que les pays importateurs et exportateurs ont des incitations à dévier de la coopération à des périodes différentes: les exportateurs lorsque les prix sont élevés et les importateurs lorsque les prix sont bas. Dans la mesure où les prix des matières premières alimentaires ont une distribution asymétrique avec une queue de distribution étalée vers les prix élevés, un accord commercial tendrait à générer des résultats asymétriques. En l'absence de coopération, un pays importateur utilise plus fréquemment sa politique commerciale du fait de la concentration des prix mondiaux en dessous de leur moyenne, mais un pays exportateur aura une plus grande incitation à dévier de la coopération car les déviations positives des prix par rapport à leur moyenne sont plus importantes que les déviations négatives. L'asymétrie de la distribution des prix alimentaires pourrait donc rendre difficile tout accord international pour discipliner l'usage des restrictions aux exportations.
    Keywords: Commodity price stabilization,Export restrictions,Food security,Repeated game,wto,pricing policies,organisation mondiale du commerce,prix alimentaire,exportation,politique des prix
    Date: 2016
  25. By: Hélène Joachain
    Abstract: The overarching question of this dissertation is in what ways complementary currencies (CC) systems can contribute to environmental sustainability from an institutional and ecological economics perspective. More particularly, the research focuses on household energy consumption, as it is an important target for policy makers in the EU. The first three chapters focus on the emerging trend of using CC systems as top-down instruments for environmental sustainability. Our findings relate to developing a taxonomy of these systems, designing new top-down CC systems adapted to the context of energy savings in the household sector, exploring the influence of these new systems on the quality of motivation in the light of Self-Determination Theory and investigating the acceptability and effectiveness of these systems. In the fourth and last chapter of this dissertation, we approach our research question from a bottom-up angle and, using an inductive methodology, we explore how community currencies could act as an organising instrument capable of helping cohousing communities achieve their energy-efficiency potential. Finally, we conclude by highlighting our contributions regarding the structure and important features of these systems, how they can be used in an ecological economics paradigm, and how they can set rules for collective action in an institutional perspective.
    Keywords: Complementary currencies; Environmental sustainability; Households; Energy savings; Behavioural change; Motivation; Innovative policies; Smart meters; Cohousing; Collective action; Effectiveness; Values and life goals; Ecological economics; Institutional economics
    Date: 2017–09–04
  26. By: Tom Vogl (Princeton University, BREAD, and NBER); Marcos Rangel (Duke University and BREAD)
    Abstract: Fire has long served as a tool in agriculture, but this practice's human capital consequences have proved difficult to study. Drawing on data from satellites, air monitors, and vital records, we study how smoke from sugarcane harvest fires affects infant health in the Brazilian state that produces one-fifth of the world's sugarcane. Because fires track economic activity, we exploit wind for identification, finding that late-pregnancy exposure to upwind fires decreases birth weight, gestational length, and in utero survival, but not early neonatal survival. Other fires positively predict health, highlighting the importance of disentangling pollution from economic activities that drive it.
    Keywords: Brazil
    JEL: H23 I15 O13 Q53
    Date: 2016–12
  27. By: Laurène Feintrenie (UPR Forêts et Sociétés - CIRAD); Jean-Marc Roda (UPR BioWooEB - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Alain Rival (CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)
    Abstract: In Central Africa, industrial investments in agriculture have been increasing for the last ten years, constituting one of the many drivers of deforestation. If these investments are to contribute to socioeconomic development without harming the environment,they need to be more effectively monitored.Analysing successes and failures in four Central African countries helps to identify ways to increase the chances of success for projects: carrying out independent impact assessments before projects are launched; obtaining the free, prior and informed consent of the communities concerned; and encouraging companies to meet certification criteria. The host governments should be able to take advantage of actions by people- and environment-friendly companies in order to create a virtuous circle, and should build agro-industrial projects around national land use plans.
    Abstract: En Afrique centrale, les investissements industriels dans l'agriculture augmentent depuis une décennie, constituant l'un des multiples vecteurs de la déforestation. Pour que ces investissements bénéficient au développement socio-économique sans nuire à l'environnement, il est nécessaire de mieux les encadrer. L'analyse des réussites et des échecs dans quatre pays d'Afrique centrale permet de dégager des pistes pour accroître les chances de succès des projets : réaliser des études d'impact indépendantes avant le début du projet ; obtenir le consentement libre, informé et préalable des populations concernées ; inciter les entreprises à répondre aux critères de certification. Les États pourront s'appuyer sur des entre-prises respectueuses des hommes et de l'environnement afin de créer une dynamique vertueuse, et pourront ancrer les projets agro-industriels dans des plans d'aménagement du territoire national.
    Keywords: accaparement des terres,multinationale,Afrique,agro-industrie,Foresterie,politique forestière,palmier à huile,hévéa,investissement agricole,certification
    Date: 2016–02

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.