nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2017‒07‒09
fourteen papers chosen by

  1. Key policy actions for sustainable land and water use to serve people By von Braun, Joachim; Gulati, Ashok; Kharas, Homi Jamshed
  2. Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the 21st Century: Has it Done the Business? By Jean-Christophe Bureau; Houssein Guimbard; Sébastien Jean
  3. Indirect land use change (iLUC) revisited: An evaluation of current policy proposals By Delzeit, Ruth; Klepper, Gernot; Söder, Mareike
  4. The Impact of MGNREGA on Agricultural Outcomes and the Rural Labour Market- A Matched DID Approach By Deepak Varshney, Deepti Goel and J.V. Meenakshi
  5. On the current account - biofuels link in emerging and developing countries: do oil price fluctuations matter? By Gabriel Gomes; Emmanuel Hache; Valérie Mignon; Anthony Paris
  6. Dynamic Changes in Comparative Advantage of Indonesian Agricultural Products By Girik Allo, Albertus; Sukartini, Ni Made; Widodo, Tri
  7. Policy options for a socially balanced climate policy By Schwerhoff, Gregor; Dao, Nguyen Thang; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Grimalda, Gianluca; Jakob, Michael; Klenert, David; Siegmeier, Jan
  8. An Analysis of the Economic Determinants of Food Security in North Africa By Elena Kopnova; Lilia Rodionova
  9. Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures By Francisco Estrada; Luis Filipe Martins; Pierre Perron
  10. Extracting and analyzing the warming trend in global and hemispheric temperatures By Francisco Estrada; Pierre Perron
  11. Protecting Calorie Intakes against Income Shocks By Stephanie von Hinke; George Leckie
  12. Spatial Analysis of Emissions in Sweden By George Marbuah; Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah
  13. Price Discovery in Some Primary Commodity Markets in India By Raushan Kumar
  14. The Sustainable Development Goals and the systems approach to sustainability By Barbier, Edward; Burgess, Joanne C.

  1. By: von Braun, Joachim; Gulati, Ashok; Kharas, Homi Jamshed
    Abstract: To achieve food security for all, new resource policies for sustainable land and water use are needed. Land, water and energy need to be considered jointly in policies, not in isolation. G20 countries' policy makers, corporate and civil society actors, and those of other countries should act in coordinated fashion in the following four policy areas on which specific proposals are made in this policy paper: 1) focusing land, and water resource policies on human wellbeing, 2) investing in and sharing water, agricultural and energy innovations, 3) making wider use of digital opportunities for sustainable agriculture, and 4) re-designing global governance of agriculture and food.
    Keywords: G-20,international resource policy,sustainable agriculture,food security
    JEL: F53 Q10 Q18 Q28
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Jean-Christophe Bureau; Houssein Guimbard; Sébastien Jean
    Abstract: Based on a novel, detailed, time-consistent tariff database to take stock of developments regarding import protection in the agricultural sector since 2001, we propose a statistical decomposition of the changes in the various types of tariffs. The results show that the multilateral system has played a limited role in trade liberalization over the period. Many countries have continued to apply much lower tariffs on agricultural products than their WTO ceilings. Moreover, there has been substantial unilateral dismantling of tariffs over the period, so that much of the liberalization took place outside WTO and regional agreements. The number of regional trade agreements has surged, but their impact on applied agricultural tariffs has been limited. Finally, we investigate the tariffs, trade and production implications for food and agricultural products of two extreme scenarios in the future development of trade negotiations: an ambitious surge of regional agreements and a trade war within the WTO context.
    Keywords: Tariffs;Regional Trade Agreements;Agricultural Trade Liberalization;WTO
    JEL: F10 F13 F14
    Date: 2017–06
  3. By: Delzeit, Ruth; Klepper, Gernot; Söder, Mareike
    Abstract: The contribution of biofuels to save greenhouse gas emissions has been challenged over the last years. A still unresolved question is how to quantify emissions from indirect land use change (iLUC). In this article we discuss the implications of uncertainties on the current policy proposals in the European Union (EU). We conclude that it is inappropriate to calculate crop-specific iLUC-emissions and to include them into binding regulation. We argue that modelling results, particularly crop-specific ones, should not be used for policy decisions. Our discussion of the current EU policy proposal suggests that a combination of an increase in the minimum emissions savings threshold and limits to biofuel production are a safe way to ensure with a high degree of certainty a climate mitigation impact of biofuels.
    Keywords: biofuel policy,indirect land use change,European Union,policy proposals
    JEL: Q42 Q24 Q48 Q16
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Deepak Varshney, Deepti Goel and J.V. Meenakshi (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi)
    Abstract: This paper attempts to address the impact of the MGNREGA on the rural agricultural sector, focusing on cropping patterns, irrigated area, crop yields, wages and rural employment. The analysis is based on two data sources- the first is a unique district-season level panel dataset that we construct using multiple sources- and the second is unit-record data from the NSS Employment Unemployment Surveys. To identify causal effects, we employ a difference-indifference matching (DIDM) procedure, where districts are matched based on propensity scores- the use of propensity scores represents a novel aspect of this paper. We also examine pre-programme trends for each outcome variable to provide a check on the validity of our estimates. Our results indicate modest changes in cropping patterns that are state- and period-specific- however they do not indicate any improvements in crop yields that were expected given the MGNREGA’s focus on investments in irrigation, although there is some evidence that irrigated area may have expanded after a lag. We also find that there is no systematic evidence of impact on wages, and therefore no evidence that public works employment in MGNREGA crowded out casual labour in agriculture.
    Keywords: MGNREGA, Public Works, Agriculture
    JEL: J31 J46 J48 Q15
    Date: 2017–06
  5. By: Gabriel Gomes; Emmanuel Hache; Valérie Mignon; Anthony Paris
    Abstract: Many developed countries promote the use of biofuels for environmental concerns, leading to a rise in the price of agricultural commodities utilized in their production. Such environmental policies have major effects on the economy of emerging and developing countries whose activity is highly dependent on agricultural commodities involved in biofuel production. This paper tackles this issue by examining the price impact of biofuels on the current account for a panel of 16 developing and emerging countries, and the potential nonlinear effect exerted by the price of oil on this relationship. Relying on the estimation of panel smooth-transition regression models, we show that positive shocks in the price of biofuels lead to a current-account improvement for agricultural commodity exporters and producers only when the price of oil is below a certain threshold. When the price of oil exceeds this threshold, uctuations in the price of biofuels no longer affect the current account. These findings illustrate that a rise in the price of oil exerts a negative effect on the trade balance of commodity exporters which are also oil importers, dampening the biofuel price impact on the current-account position.
    Keywords: Biofuels; Oil; Current account; Panel smooth transition regression.
    JEL: Q16 Q43 F32 C23
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Girik Allo, Albertus; Sukartini, Ni Made; Widodo, Tri
    Abstract: Indonesia is a large country and most populous among members of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The purpose of this study is to perform a "mapping products" for agricultural commodity in Indonesia. This study utilizes data on export and import four-digit in the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) Revision 2 from UN-COMTRADE for the period 1984-2014. We use Reveled Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) combined with Trade Balance Index (TBI) in our analysis. The primary result shows that dynamic changes in agricultural commodities have occurred in Indonesia. Agricultural commodities that perform de-specialization are rice, meat of sheep and goats (fresh, chilled, or frozen). On the other hand, agricultural commodities that experience specialization are fishery products.
    Keywords: products mapping, agriculture product, international trade
    JEL: F14 Q17
    Date: 2017–07–04
  7. By: Schwerhoff, Gregor; Dao, Nguyen Thang; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Grimalda, Gianluca; Jakob, Michael; Klenert, David; Siegmeier, Jan
    Abstract: Climate policies, including removing fossil fuel subsidies or imposing carbon prices, can be designed in a way that is both efficient in addressing climate change and results in a fair distribution of the associated costs.
    Keywords: G20,climate policy,distribution
    JEL: D62 E62 H21 H22
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Elena Kopnova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Lilia Rodionova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the issue of food security as the basis for stable economic development using the example of North Africa. A statistical analysis of economic and financial factors in relation to the determinants of food security was carried out using a panel cointegrating model based on official international statistics of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Bank for 1991-2014. According to the results, population growth and the intensification of agricultural production, foreign trade and foreign direct investment play a crucial role in food security. The study revealed the relationship between food security and the development of the banking and financial systems in the region, and their degree of globalization. The strategy of a long-term investment policy pursued by the World Bank and FAO to combat hunger and poverty was justified. The methodology proposed can be used to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of policies to maintain food security in the regions of Arfica.
    Keywords: food security, financial institutions, financial markets, panel cointegration, time series analysis, economic indicators, statistical data, North Africa
    JEL: F52 I38 R11
    Date: 2017
  9. By: Francisco Estrada (Universidad Nacional AutÛnoma de MÈxico and VU University Amsterdam); Luis Filipe Martins (ISCTE-IUL); Pierre Perron (Boston University)
    Abstract: Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemisheric temperature series would suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded differently to the changes in the radiative forcing. Using recent econometric techniques, we can reconcile such differences and show that all sea and land temperatures share similar time series properties and a common underlying warming trend having a dominant anthropogenic origin. We also investigate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) and show that the differences in warming between hemispheres is in part driven by antropogenic forcing but that most of the observed rapid changes is likely due to natural variability. The attribution of changes in ITA is relevant since increases in the temperature contrast between hemispheres could potentially produce a shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and alter rainfall patterns. The existence of a current slowdown in the warming and its causes is also investigated. The results suggest that the slowdown is a common feature in global and hemispheric sea and land temperatures that can, at least partly, be attributed to changes in anthropogenic forcing.
    Keywords: Climate change; warming hiatus; structural break; co-trending; principal component analysis.
    Date: 2017–03
  10. By: Francisco Estrada (Universidad Nacional AutÛnoma de MÈxico and VU University Amsterdam); Pierre Perron (Boston University)
    Abstract: This paper offers an updated and extended attribution analysis based on recently published versions of temperature and forcing datasets. It shows that both temperature and radiative forcing variables can be best represented as trend stationary processes with structural changes occurring in the slope of their trend functions and that they share a common secular trend and common breaks, largely determined by the anthropogenic radiative forcing. The common nonlinear trend is isolated and further evidence on the possible causes of the current slowdown in warming is presented. Our analysis offers interesting results in relation to the recent literature. Changes in the anthropogenic forcings are directly responsible for the hiatus as in Estrada et al. (2013a), while natural factors such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, as well as the new temperature adjustments in Karl et al. (2105) contribute to weaken the signal. In other words, natural variability and data adjustments do not explain in any way the hiatus, they simply mask its presence.
    Keywords: Climate change; warming hiatus; structural break; co-trending; principal component analysis
    Date: 2016–05
  11. By: Stephanie von Hinke; George Leckie
    Abstract: Whether and how changes in economic circumstances or household income affect individuals’ diet and nutritional intakes is of substantial interest for policy purposes. This paper examines the extent to which, as well as how individuals protect their calorie intakes in the face of unanticipated shocks to household income. Our results suggest that households use substitution, disproportionally cutting back spending on non-foods to protect spending on foods, change the composition of the consumption basket, and increase the consumption of ‘cheaper’ calories. Taken together, we find that total nutritional intakes are almost fully protected against income shocks, with only very small changes in actual calorie intakes. Specifically, we find that 12-16% of the effect of permanent income shocks on food expenditures is transmitted to calorie intakes, with 84–88% protected through insurance mechanisms.
    Keywords: Nutritional intakes, food expenditures, income shocks.
    JEL: I1 I30 D12
    Date: 2017–06–30
  12. By: George Marbuah (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)
    Abstract: This paper contributes to an emerging literature on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between pollution and income at the local level by analyzing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) and total suspended particulate (TSP). We conduct several spatial statistical and econometric tests to account for spatial dependence between 290 Swedish municipalities on the selected emissions. Results highlight evidence that the pollution and income relationship is significantly characterized by spatial interaction effects. That is, municipality per capita emissions are strongly influenced by emissions trajectories in neighbouring municipalities. Implications of our findings on policy are discussed.
    Keywords: Environmental Kuznets curve, Spatial econometric analysis, Emissions, Sweden,
    JEL: Q53 Q55 R12
    Date: 2017–06
  13. By: Raushan Kumar (Department of Economics, University of Delhi)
    Abstract: With the onset of wide-ranging economic reforms in India in 1991, agents have been exposed to increased price risk in commodity markets. Futures markets are one important instrument for reducing price risk, and in this study we focus on the price discovery role of futures markets. Employing daily price data for nine crops for the period 2009-2014, we find strong causation running from futures to spot prices. Since spot prices impinge on the storage and cropping pattern decisions of farmers, our results imply that providing information on futures price to farmers on a daily basis would enable them to take more efficient decisions in the present.
    Keywords: Futures markets, spot markets, primary commodities
    JEL: Q02 Q18 G13
    Date: 2017–06
  14. By: Barbier, Edward; Burgess, Joanne C.
    Abstract: The authors explore the link between the systems approach to sustainability and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which were formally adopted by the UN in 2015. The systems approach depicts sustainable development as the intersection of the goals attributed to three interlinked systems: environmental (or ecological), economic and social. The authors illustrate how each of the 17 SDGs can be characterized as a goal primarily attributed either to the environmental, economic or social system, and as suggested by the systems approach, there may be important tradeoffs in attempting to attain all these goals simultaneously. By adopting standard methods of the theory of choice and welfare under imposed quantities, the authors show that is possible to measure the welfare effects of an increase in the indicator level for one SDG by identifying the tradeoffs that occur with achieving another goal. They present a quantitative assessment of current progress and tradeoffs among the 17 SDGs, using a representative indicator for each goal. They then conduct a preliminary welfare analysis of these tradeoffs through employing the approach developed in this paper. Although this analysis focuses on the potential tradeoffs among SDGs, the approach could also be applied to show complementarities, or "winwins", in simultaneous progress among two or more SDGs. Such an analysis can help in the design of appropriate policy interventions to achieve specific SDGs, minimizing the potentially negative knock-on effects on some goals whilst capitalizing on the positive win-win impacts on other SDGs.
    Keywords: sustainable development,Sustainable Development Goals,systems approach,tradeoffs,United Nations
    JEL: Q01 O20 D61 Q56
    Date: 2017

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