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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2017‒04‒16
thirty papers chosen by |
| By: | Gregor Schwerhoff (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)); Johanna Wehkamp (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) and Technical University of Berlin) |
| Abstract: | The forest conservation policy instrument REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) is designed to compensate governments of tropical countries for their efforts to conserve forests. Food insecure countries that are specialized in agriculture and have weak institutions, are likely to face difficulties to enforce forest conservation. This article explores how far export tariffs on agricultural goods combined with public investments, could be used as a forest conservation policy mix in such contexts. We first show empirically that structural constraints to forest conservation policies are particularly pronounced in one third of countries where REDD+ programs are planned to be rolled out. We then develop a two sector competing land use model with a domestic food producing and an exporting agricultural sector. We show that it is possible to combine export tariffs with public investments such that deforestation decreases, while agricultural production levels and food prices remain constant. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation, REDD+, Export Tariffs, Public Investments, Two Sector Competing Land Use Model |
| JEL: | O24 Q17 Q23 Q24 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2017.20&r=agr |
| By: | Zuzana Smeets Kristkova; Edward Smeets; Hans van Meijl |
| Abstract: | There are major concerns about the impact of the large scale use of crops for energy generation on land use and food security. The objective of this study is to evaluate the possibilities and limitationsof avoiding these undesirable effects by increasing the productivity of crop and livestock production through investments in R&D in agriculture. An extended version of the Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET) is used to model the R&D investments in agriculture to compensate the effects of 15 EJ to 100 EJ biomass supply from woody and grassy energy crop plantations. The costsof agricultural R&D necessary to avoid the expansion of land are estimated at 6 to 64 billion US$ for 15 to 100 EJ, respectively. Food security effects are less costly to compensate, i.e. the food securityimproves if the land use change effects of bioenergy are compensated. The costs of R&D investments are 0.4 to 0.6 $ per GJ biomass from plantations. The required R&D investments are higher inindustrialized countries compared to developing regions, because of the longer time lag between R&D investments and productivity increases in industrialized regions. The impact of agricultural R&Dinvestments in agriculture to avoid land use change in 2030 results in additional positive effects in 2040 and 2050, i.e. agricultural land use decreases and food security improves compared to no bioenergy plantation scenario, because of the time lag effect of R&D investments. We conclude that investments in agriculture R&D are a potentially effective and low-cost strategy to avoid undesirableland use change and food security effects of large scale use of biomass from energy crop plantations, but early planning and timing of bioenergy policies with investments in R&D in agriculture is essential. see paper see paper |
| Keywords: | The Netherlands, Agriculture, Agricultural issues |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9966&r=agr |
| By: | Jean-Christophe Bureau; Jo Swinnen |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews evidence on the impact of EU policies on global food security, focusing on four EU policy areas: agricultural policy, bioenergy policy, trade policy, and development (food aid) policy. Old concerns related to the detrimental impact of EU farm subsidies, food aid and tariffs on poor countries’ food security. New concerns relate to impacts of EU food standards and bioenergy policies. The EU policies which created the largest distortions on global markets (in the area of trade, agriculture, food aid, and bioenergy) have been substantially reformed over the past decades. Recent global food price fluctuations have also re-emphasized that the impact of EU policies on the poor’s food security differ depending on whether these are consumers or producers, or whether countries are exporters or importers. Overall, our review explains that in many areas the impact of EU policies on global food security is less obvious and more complex than often argued. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:578549&r=agr |
| By: | Ngo, Quang Thanh |
| Abstract: | This study examined farmers’ adaptive measures to climate change induced natural shocks through past climate experiences in the Mekong River Delta (Vietnam) from a data set of 330 farmers. Seemingly unrelated regression model was used to identify the determinants of farmers’ adaptive measures. Results showed that male household head, education of the household head, marital status of the household head, production assets, firm size, availability of credit, access to market, temperature and rainfall had significant impacts on choices of adaptation. Results also indicated that past climate experiences was the most important determinant of adaptive measures. Policy messages enhanced access to credit, to markets, and created awareness on climate change. Other policy options could also be suggested, including: strengthening education level of farmers, facilitating cheap technologies, spurring irrigation investment through public - private partner, and supporting the land reform such as farmers’ cooperation in large-scale production. |
| Keywords: | Climate change induced natural shocks, adaptative measures, past climate experiences, Mekong River Delta |
| JEL: | C31 Q12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:78055&r=agr |
| By: | Mogues, Tewodaj; Mueller, Valerie; Kondylis, Florence |
| Abstract: | Rigorous impact evaluations on agricultural interventions have proliferated in research of recent years. Whereas increased care in causal identification in such analyses is beneficial and has improved the quality of research in this field, much of the literature still fails to investigate the costs needed to achieve any benefits identified. Such understanding, however, would be crucial for drawing policy and programmatic conclusions from such research and for informing the allocation of public investments. Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) subjects both the cost side and the effects side of agricultural and rural interventions to technical scrutiny and unifies both sides in order to compare the relative cost-effectiveness of different modalities of a program, of efforts to reach different target groups, or of efforts to achieve different outcomes. CEAs, while present in the health and education sectors, remain rare in agricultural and rural development research. This study conducts CEAs in a particular type of programmatic work in the sector—namely, interventions that bring a gender lens to community-based advisory services in rural areas. Specifically, we consider two such programs—one in Mozambique in which such advisory services aim to improve sustainable land management (SLM) practices in agricultural production, and the other in Tanzania to advise farmers on their land rights. The former enables the comparison of two modalities in delivering SLM through community leaders: a gender-sensitive modality and a basic modality. We find that the gendered modality is consistently more cost-effective than the basic modality when considering varied outcomes and target groups. However, for any given modality, it is more cost-effective to improve outcomes for men than for women—a finding that also pertains to the Tanzania land advisory services program. The structure of costs in the agricultural extension program further allowed for a simulation of how cost-effectiveness would change if the program were scaled up geographically. The results show that expansion of the basic modality of the SLM program leads to improvements in cost-effectiveness, while the gendered modality displays nonlinear changes in cost-effectiveness along the expansion path, first worsening with initial scale-up and subsequently improving with further expansion. |
| Keywords: | TANZANIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; MOZAMBIQUE; SOUTHERN AFRICA, sustainability; sustainable land management; agricultural extension; impact assessment; public investment; production; gender; land rights, cost-effectiveness analysis; paralegal services, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1613&r=agr |
| By: | Basak Bayramoglu; Raja CHAKIR; Anna LUNGARSKA |
| Abstract: | Freshwater ecosystems have experienced over the last three decades larger declines in biodiversity than terrestrial and marine ecosystems. This is due to alterations of habitat, water pollution problems, overexploitation of water resources, exotic invasions, water extraction and flow regulation (Mantyka-Prigel et al., 2014). These human-induced pressures are mainly driven by land use changes. The increased urbanization and development cause the alteration of habitat in rivers. The agricultural sector is at the origin of diffuse pollution problems due to discharges of nitrogen, phosphorus and pesticides in soil and water. Some rivers in France are highly degraded because of these various land uses and their changes. This degradation is represented by a decline in the quality and quantity of water, and by changes in the distribution and structure of aquatic biota for some rivers in France (Oberdorff et al., 2002). This has led us to ask what land uses are at the origin of the spatial heterogeneity of the "health" of water bodies in France, and which public policies are best in improving it. The previous work on France has studied exclusively the effects of land uses on the chemical status of water quality. In this work, we close the gap in the literature by analyzing how alternative land uses affect freshwater ecosystems in France. In line with Hascic and Wu (2006), we estimate the effects of alternative land uses on a selected indicator of the ecological status of surface water, namely a fish-based index. As the effect of land uses on fish-based index is conditional to the location of water body and to its pedoclimatic conditions, it is important to take into account the spatial heterogeneity of the fish-based index in the econometric strategy. To this end, unlike the previous literature, we estimate a spatial econometric model to explain the FBI score registered for various monitoring points observed between 2001 and 2013 in France. We discuss the implications of the results for the design of agricultural and land use policies that improve the health of freshwater ecosystems. We first expect that different land uses (agriculture, forest, grassland, urban and other) and biophysical variables have a significant effect on the spatial distribution of the fish-based index. We also expect that the shares of forest and grassland areas in a specific hydrographic sector have a positive impact on the score of the fish-based index, while the shares of agricultural and urban areas have a negative impact. Furthermore, we expect that climatic variables significantly affect the evolution of the fish-based index over time. The findings of this study could be useful for policy makers to adapt land use policies for sustainable freshwater ecosystems. |
| Keywords: | This is a national-scale, hydrographic sector-level analysis for France, Agricultural issues, Energy and environmental policy |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9420&r=agr |
| By: | Amsalu Woldie Yalew |
| Abstract: | We assessed the economy-wide impacts of climate change on Ethiopian economy. We coupled global gridded crop model results with CGE model. The results of two crop simulation models were fed into CGE model as shocks to total factor productivity in grain and livestock producing agricultural activities in Ethiopia. We found that the macroeconomic, sectoral, and households’ welfare effects are non-negligible. Small urban residents will relatively burnt the welfare burden compared to rural households (which produce and consume majority of their produce) and households in big urban area (which may have higher access to imported food, and the share of food expenditure is low). Impacts on overall GDP may reach up to 7%. Exports will decline. The import composition moves from non-agricultural to agricultural commodities. Agricultural activities GDP is hit hard by climate change compared to industrial and service activities. Within agricultural activities, grain and livestock activities on which the shock was introduced are those highly affected. There are also impacts on agricultural activities even if climate change impacts were not imposed directly. This calls for proactive adaptation in agriculture in the country. We pursued Structural approach which is an interdisciplinary approach, to assess the economy-wide impacts of climate change. First, the crop yield projections simulated by two Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) were used to obtain the changes in yields overtime. Then, these yields changes, were imposed as shocks to total factor productivity parameters of agricultural activities in the static CGE model. The CGE results were analyzed at macroeconomic (GDP, Exports, Imports, Government Savings), Sectoral (Agricultural, Industrial and Services output), and households (Rural and Urban) level. The preliminary results show that the macroeconomic, sectoral output, and households’ welfare effects of climate change in Ethiopia are non-negligible. The impacts on GDP may reach up to 7%. The impacts on households’ welfare varies between -2& to -11% depending on the model and location of households. Imports of non-agricultural goods declines will that of agriculture may increase. As expected agriculture will bear the highest burden. |
| Keywords: | Ethiopia, Developing countries, General equilibrium modeling |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9750&r=agr |
| By: | Desquilbet, Marion; Maigné, Elise; Monier-Dilhan, Sylvette |
| Abstract: | In terms of sustainability, the effects of the development of organic farming are subject to debate, particularly regarding the methods used to compare organic and conventional food systems and the consequences of the conventionalization of organic farming. We propose an empirical study centered on the stage of food retailing and based on two sales databases in France in 2012, one involving conventional food retailing and the other involving specialized organic stores. We examine sustainability from the plant, animal or combined origin of food products and from their degree of processing. The results suggest that sales of organic food products are more plant-based and less processed than sales of conventional products, two criteria for better sustainability. They also show that organic sales in specialized organic stores are more sustainable than those in conventional retail stores according to the same criteria. In addition, the sales structure of organic products in conventional retail stores is very specific. Finally, the average structure of purchases in specialized organic stores is more plant-based and less processed than total food purchases of large buyers of organic products in conventional retail stores, themselves more plant-based and less processed than those of small buyers. |
| Keywords: | sustainable diets; organic farming; retail channel; conventionalization; food environment |
| JEL: | C81 D12 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:31558&r=agr |
| By: | Fishman, Ram (Tel Aviv University); Smith, Stephen C. (George Washington University); Bobić, Vida (George Washington University); Sulaiman, Munshi (Save the Children) |
| Abstract: | Many development programs are based on short-term interventions, either because of external funding constraints or because it is assumed that impacts persist post program termination ("sustainability"). Using a novel randomized phase-out research method, we provide experimental tests of the effects of program phase-out in the context of a large-scale agricultural input subsidy and extension program operated by the NGO BRAC to increase the use of improved seed varieties and basic farming practices among women smallholders in Uganda. We find that while supply of improved seeds through local, BRAC trained women declined, demand does not diminish, and farmers shift purchases from BRAC to market sources, indicating a persistent learning effect. We also find no evidence of declines in the practice of improved and less costly cultivation techniques taught by the program. These results have implications for both efficient program design and for models of technology adoption. |
| Keywords: | agricultural extension, agricultural technology adoption, food security, supply chain, subsidies, randomized phase-out, Uganda |
| JEL: | O13 O33 I32 Q12 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10641&r=agr |
| By: | Ma, Shuang (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics); Mu, Ren (Texas A&M University) |
| Abstract: | Land requisition has been an important process by which Chinese local governments promote urbanization and generate revenue. This study investigates the impacts of land requisition on farmers' decisions of labor allocation between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. We argue that, conditional on village fixed effects, land requisition can be explored as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the relationship between land rights and labor allocation of farmers. We find that young farmers (age 16-44) are not affected in their migration decisions by land loss through requisition, while some older farmers (age 45-55) are affected. In response to land loss through requisition, the probability that older farmers living beyond the mean distance from the county seat migrates to cities increases by 8.5 percentage points. An econometric test confirms that the finding is unlikely to be driven by unobserved variables associated with household experience of land loss. This finding raises concerns about the wellbeing of the farmers who may not be competitive in the urban labor market and therefore unlikely to leave farming unless they have to. |
| Keywords: | land institution, land requisition, migration, urbanization, farmers, China |
| JEL: | O12 O15 J61 Q15 R28 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10640&r=agr |
| By: | Sudarshan Chalise; Dr Athula Naranpanawa |
| Abstract: | Despite the growing body of literature on the economic impact of climate change, quantification of climate-change adaptation practices is limited. Therefore, this paper investigates the feasibility of crop land re-allocation as an adaptation strategy to minimise the economy-wide costs of climate change on agriculture in Nepal by developing a multi-household Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Nepal makes an interesting case study as it is one of the most vulnerable agricultural economies within South Asia. Top-down CGE models are often used in economy-wide investigations because they enable researchers to evaluate the overall impact of climate change, including income distribution and employment. Operating at the micro-level, individual farmers and households in developing countries make most of the land-use decisions to adapt to the threats of climate change. Therefore, this paper attempts to map these decisions by using a simple model designed specifically for the Nepalese economy that modifies the ORANI-G generic CGE model (Dixon et al, 1982). Specifically, the model modifies the widely assumed “fixed land supply for a given industry” by allowing farmers to supply land to crops that are less affected by climate change subject to any agronomic constraints. Using Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) functions to model the allocation of land allows one to recognise the ease of switching from one crop to another based on their agronomic constraints. For the paper, a nested set of CETs with different transformation elasticities is developed and tested. The sensitivity of the CET values is analysed and a framework of beneficial practices in land re-allocation is recommended. The results suggest that, in the long run, farmers in Nepal tend to allocate land to crops that are comparatively less impacted by climate change, such as paddy, thereby minimizing the economy-wide impacts of climate change. Furthermore, re-allocating land from crops that are highly impacted by climate change to those that are not tends to reduce the income disparity among different household groups by significantly moderating the income losses of rural marginal farmers. Therefore, it is suggested that policy makers in Nepal should prioritise schemes such as providing climate-smart paddy varieties (i.e., those that are resistant to heat, drought and floods) to farmers, subsidising fertilizers, improving agronomic practices, and educating farmers to switch from crops that are highly impacted by climate change to those that are not, such as paddy. |
| Keywords: | Nepal, General equilibrium modeling, Forecasting and projection methods |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9272&r=agr |
| By: | Van Asselt, Joanna; Htoo, Kyan; Dorosh, Paul A. |
| Abstract: | As a result of recent political reforms, Myanmar has the opportunity to enact major policy changes to reinvigorate its agriculture sector. In this context, Myanmar’s rubber sector has the potential to become an even greater source of export earnings and rural household incomes, but there are major challenges related to low rubber productivity and poor rubber quality. Using data from the Mon State Rural Household Survey (MSRHS) conducted from May to June 2015, as well as qualitative data collected from rubber producer focus groups and other interviews with rubber producers, traders, and processors, this paper describes the cost structure of rubber production in Mon State. We then estimate smallholder production costs and the profitability of smallholder rubber production under various alternative yield and price scenarios. The results suggest that if the weaknesses hindering the profitability of the rubber sector are not addressed, the rubber sector will likely stagnate. Moreover, in the absence of a major increase in world prices (substantially above the 2000–2016 average), new rubber investments will not be profitable without major improvements in yield and quality. Further, increasing only yields or only quality, or only improving the institutional environment, will not result in positive returns on investment for smallholders; reforms are needed in all three areas. If these weaknesses are addressed, however, Myanmar’s new investments will be profitable and Myanmar could become an important rubber producer and exporter on the world stage. |
| Keywords: | MYANMAR; BURMA; SOUTHEAST ASIA; ASIA, rubber; agriculture; smallholders; rural communities; households; production; production costs; productivity; yields; prices |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1610&r=agr |
| By: | Moon, Jin-Young (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee, Sung Hee (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee, Minyoung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The world's food demand has been increasing due to population increase, developing nation's income increase and the resulting change in diet, and an increasing use of bio-fuels. However, grain production and export rely on only a few countries, and with the recent global climate change, questions over sustainability have been steadily increasing. Korea's case looks particularly serious because its grain supply, except for rice, heavily relies on import. This study analyzes how to secure a stable supply of grains that have a high level of reliance on import, and examines our current efforts to secure primary grains, which include wheat, corn, and soybean. It also looks at other countries in similar situations and their current trends in securing grain supply. |
| Keywords: | Grain; Overseas Agricultural Development; National Grain Procurement System |
| Date: | 2015–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2015_014&r=agr |
| By: | Kumar, Anjani; Mishra, Ashok K.; Saroj, Sunil; Joshi, Pramod Kumar |
| Abstract: | A goal of agricultural policy in India has been to reduce farmers’ dependence on informal credit. To that end, recent initiatives have been focused explicitly on rural areas and have had a positive impact on the flow of agricultural credit. But despite the significance of these initiatives in enhancing the flow of institutional credit to agriculture, the links between institutional credit and net farm income and consumption expenditures in India are not very well documented. Using a large national farm household–level dataset and instrumental variables two-stage least squares estimation methods, we investigate the impact of institutional farm credit on farm income and farm household consumption expenditures. Our findings show that in India, formal credit is indeed playing a critical role in increasing both the net farm income and per capita monthly household expenditures of Indian farm families. We also find that, in the presence of formal credit, social safety net programs such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) may have unintended consequences. In particular, MGNREGA reduces both net farm income and per capita monthly household consumption expenditures. In contrast, in the presence of formal credit, the Public Distribution System may increase both net farm income and per capita monthly household consumption expenditures. |
| Keywords: | INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA, credit; agricultural policies; rural areas; households; income; families; family farms, institutional credit; instrumental variable; 2SLS; net farm income; consumption expenditures; social safety net, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1614&r=agr |
| By: | Johnson, Nancy L.; Balagamwala, Mysbah; Pinkstaff, Crossley; Theis, Sophie; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela; Quisumbing, Agnes R. |
| Abstract: | Increasing numbers of development agencies and individual projects espouse objectives of women’s empowerment, yet there has been little systematic work on mechanisms by which interventions can enhance women’s empowerment. This gap exists because of the lack of consensus on indicators as well as the lack of attention paid to measuring the effects of different types of interventions on empowerment. This paper identifies the types of strategies employed by 13 agricultural development projects within the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Gender, Agriculture, and Assets Project Phase 2 (GAAP2) that have explicit objectives of empowering women. We distinguish between reach, benefit, and empowerment as objectives of agricultural development projects. Simply including women does not necessarily benefit them, and even activities that benefit do not necessarily empower. To identify strategies to empower women, we build on the domains included in the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) and are working with the GAAP2 portfolio of projects to develop an empowerment metric that is applicable in the project setting (a project-level WEAI, or pro-WEAI). We have identified the following potential domains to be included in pro-WEAI: input into production decision making, control over resources, control over income, leadership, time, physical mobility, intrahousehold relationships, individual empowerment, reduction in gender-based violence, and decision making on nutrition. The GAAP2 projects address these domains through a wide variety of activities that can be grouped into four main types: (1) direct and indirect provision of goods and services; (2) forming or strengthening groups, organizations, or platforms and networks that involve women; (3) strengthening knowledge and capacity through agricultural extension, business and finance training, nutrition behavior change communication, and other training; and (4) changing gender norms through one-way awareness raising or two-way community conversations about gender issues and their implications. In general, projects with activities in more activity areas target more domains of empowerment, and most projects target a core set of six empowerment domains. With the exception of intrahousehold relationships, which is always targeted by activities designed to influence gender norms, projects target domains with different types of activities or combinations of activities. This setup suggests that there may be no one-to-one link between a specific activity and empowerment benefits, and that implementation modalities will determine whether and how an activity contributes to women’s empowerment. The effectiveness of these project strategies will be assessed using both quantitative and qualitative methods throughout the GAAP2 research project. |
| Keywords: | indicators; women; empowerment; agricultural development; strategies; monitoring; evaluation; gender; nutrition; capacity building, women’s empowerment; agricultural development projects; project strategies; monitoring and evaluation, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1609&r=agr |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus, Turkey and Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Walid Bahloul (Governance, Finance and Accounting Laboratory, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Sfax, Sfax, Tunisia); Juncal Cunado (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Edificio Amigos, Pamplona, Spain.); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the ability of economic and financial uncertainties in predicting movements in commodity futures markets. Using daily data over the period of 8th May, 1992 to 31st August, 2016 on 21 commodity futures covering agriculture, energy, metals and livestock, we find that: (a) Linear predictive tests provide virtually no evidence of predictability; (b) Linear models are misspecified due to nonlinearity and hence, results from the framework cannot be relied upon, and; (c) Using a k-th order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test, which is robust to misspecification in the presence of nonlinearities, we find evidence that measures of uncertainty can predict returns and/or volatility of as many as 20 of the commodities considered at least at one point of their respective conditional distributions for returns and variance. In general, we highlight the importance of modeling nonlinearity, higher order moments, and quantiles of returns and volatility when carrying out predictability analysis involving commodity futures and uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Economic and Financial Uncertainty, Commodity Futures Markets, Returns, Volatility, Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test. |
| JEL: | C22 G13 Q02 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201725&r=agr |
| By: | Fisher, Monica (Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology); Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Katengeza, Samson P. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how the Farmer-to-Farmer-Extension (F2FE) system with lead farmers and follower farmers influences adoption of Conservation Agriculture (CA) technologies in Malawi. Using data from 180 lead farmers and their 455 followers in central and southern Malawi, we assess the level of influence lead farmers have on their followers’ familiarity with and adoption of CA. The main findings are that (a) lead farmers have significant influence on CA familiarity and adoption among followersthrough their motivation, familiarity, and own adoption and (b) F2FE is a complement rather than a substitute for other agricultural extension activities. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Africa; conservation agriculture (CA); farmer-to-farmer extension (F2FE); Malawi; technology adoption; lead farmers; followers of lead farmers |
| JEL: | Q16 |
| Date: | 2017–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2017_007&r=agr |
| By: | Abate, Gashaw T.; Bernard, Tanguy |
| Abstract: | Adoption of quality-enhancing technologies is often driven largely by farmers’ expected returns from these technologies. Without proper grades, standards, and certification systems, however, farmers may remain uncertain about the actual financial return associated with their quality-enhancing investments. This report summarizes the outcomes of a short video-based randomized training intervention on wheat quality measurement and collective marketing among 15,000 wheat farmers in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that the intervention led to significant changes in farmers’ commercialization behaviors—namely, it prompted farmers to adopt behaviors geared toward assessing their wheat’s quality using easily implementable test-weight measures, assessing the accuracy of the equipment used by buyers in their kebeles (scales, in particular), and contacting more than one buyer before concluding a sale. The training also led to improvements in share of output sold, price received, and collective marketing, albeit with important limitations. First, farmers who measured their wheat quality received a higher price, but only if their wheat was of higher quality. Second, farmers who found that their wheat was of higher quality were more reluctant to aggregate their wheat (that is, sell their products through local cooperatives) than those who found that their wheat was of lower quality. Lastly, the training intervention led to better use of fertilizer in the following season. Our discovery that a short training intervention can significantly change farmers’ marketing and production behavior should encourage the development of further interventions aimed at enhancing farmers’ adoption of improved technologies and commercialization. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA, wheats; commercialization; quality; quality assurance; technology, randomized controlled trial; farmer's quality assessment; impact, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1624&r=agr |
| By: | Lambrecht, Isabel; Schuster, Monica; Asare, Sarah; Pelleriaux, Laura |
| Abstract: | At a time when donors and governments are increasing efforts to mainstream gender in agriculture, it is critical to revisit long-standing wisdom about gender inequalities in agriculture to be able to more efficiently design and evaluate policy interventions. Many stylized facts about women in agriculture have been repeated for decades. Did nothing really change? Is some of this conventional wisdom simply maintained over time, or has it always been inaccurate? We use longitudinal data from Ghana to assess some of the facts and to evaluate whether gender patterns have changed over time. We focus on five main themes: land, cropping patterns, market participation, agricultural inputs, and employment. We add to the literature by showing new facts and evidence from more than 20 years. Results are varied and highlight the difficulty of making general statements about gender in agriculture. |
| Keywords: | GHANA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA, gender; land; cropping patterns; markets; resources; inputs; farm inputs; employment; labor; labour; working population; women, common wisdoms; longitudinal data; feminization of agriculture, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1623&r=agr |
| By: | Graham von Maltitz; Marna van der Merwe |
| Abstract: | The Southern African region, from a purely biophysical perspective, has huge potential for biofuel production, especially in Mozambique and Zambia. Although many of the soils are sandy and acidic, with careful management and correct fertilization, they should be highly productive. We suggest that sugarcane is the crop most easily mobilized for biofuel. A number of other crops, such as sweet sorghum, cassava, and tropical sugar beet, have good potential but will need further agronomic and processing technology investigations.Length: 33 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2017-85&r=agr |
| By: | Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David; Traoré, Fousseini |
| Abstract: | Despite recent modifications, the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union (EU) and West African (WA) countries is still being criticized for its potential detrimental effects on WA countries. This paper provides updated evidence on the impact of the EPA on these countries. A dynamic multicountry, multisector computable general equilibrium trade model with modeling of the dual-dual economy and with a consistent tariff aggregator is used to simulate a series of new scenarios that include updated information on the agreement. We also go beyond estimating macrolevel economic effects to analyze the impacts on poverty. The policy simulation results show that the implementation of the EPA between the EU and WA countries would have marginal but positive impacts on Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire and negative impacts on Benin, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo. The impact on poverty indicators in Ghana and Nigeria would be marginal. From the perspective of WA countries, this study supports the view that recent EU concessions are not sufficient and that domestic fiscal reforms are needed in WA countries themselves. |
| Keywords: | EUROPEAN UNION [INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS]; GHANA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; BURKINA FASO; COTE D'IVOIRE; BENIN; NIGERIA; SENEGAL; TOGO, economics; trade; trade agreements; poverty; indicators; impact assessment; fiscal policies; reforms, regional trade agreements; computable general equilibrium model; dual-dual model, F11 Neoclassical Models of Trade; F13 Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations; F15 Economic Integration, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1612&r=agr |
| By: | Wouterse, Fleur Stephanie |
| Abstract: | Niger is a landlocked Sahelian country, two-thirds of which is in the Sahara Desert. Although only one-eighth of the land considered arable, the overwhelming majority of Niger’s households is involved in rain-fed agriculture largely for subsistence. Given erratic rainfall and low soil fertility, most smallholders fail to produce enough food to meet household requirements. Income diversification is thus the norm among these rural households and different income-generating activities offer alternative pathways out of poverty for households as well as a mechanism for managing risk in an uncertain environment. Empowerment is likely to be an important factor affecting the ability of households to diversity their activity portfolio and may also affect activity-incomes and thereby household welfare. In this study, I use new household- and individual-level empowerment data from the Tahoua region of Niger and regression analysis to quantify the effects of a range of human capital measures including empowerment on the activity portfolio and activity incomes of rural households. My findings reveal that empowerment in particular plays an important role in enabling households to engage in mixed diversification strategy, which combines staple cropping with nonfarm activities and migration. This is a “last resort†strategy for households in lower landholding quintiles to ensure food security and complement an inadequate resource base. Controlling for activity choice, three empowerment indicators in particular—confidence, group membership, and tenure security—strongly and positively affect income from staple and cash cropping, which on average makes up about 90 percent of household income. In fact, empowerment is the only human capital variable that strongly and positively affects total household income, opening up interesting avenues for policy interventions aimed at augmenting a household’s noncognitive ability through, for example, leadership training or encouraging producer group membership—to increase incomes of the rural poor. |
| Keywords: | NIGER; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA, households; empowerment; regression analysis; livelihood diversification; economic development; diversification; gender; women; smallholders, rural households, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1611&r=agr |
| By: | Carine Meyimdjui (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The delicacy of socio-political consequences during the recent commodities’ prices spikes has given rise to stabilising measures that might have had repercussions on public policy alternatives. This effect may be worrying for developing countries, which because of the importance of the share of imports in their households’ basket, have observed a remarkable increase of their food import bills. This paper attempts to evaluate the effect of food price shocks on public expenditure in level and composition on 47 African countries between 1980 and 2011. After solving for endogeneity issues, our results show that food price shocks positively and significantly affect total government expenditure and the share of current government consumption in the total government expenditure. More precisely, an additional one standard deviation of the food price shock increase is associated to an increase of 0.06 standard deviation of the percentage of current government consumption in the total government expenditure. Interestingly, this effect highly depends on the vulnerability level. Future studies will use more disaggregated data of fiscal variables, including those on revenue, to better assess food security policies. |
| Keywords: | Vulnerability,Expenditure composition,Price shock,Africa. |
| Date: | 2017–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01457366&r=agr |
| By: | Hao Chen; Bao-Jun Tang; Hua Liao; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The negative externalities apart from carbon emissions are often neglected in most power generation planning models, which will affect the human health, biodiversity, crop yield and land use greatly. To achieve a sustainable development of China's power industry, this paper develops a deterministic linear programming model with consideration of the non-carbon externalities. This model has been applied for the case study of China for the period from 2015 to 2030, through which some interesting results have been drawn. Firstly, most of the new capacity additions are from the non-fossil fuel power plants in this planning horizon, which account for 84% of the total new capacity additions. Secondly, the power generation priority would better be given to the non-fossil fuel power plants in this horizon under the cost-effectiveness criteria. Thirdly, the minimum total cost of China's power planning is 34.48 trillion yuan, which equals to 2% of China's GDP during the planning horizon. Finally, neglecting of non-carbon externalities does have a significant influence on the power planning results, which will lead to a higher power generation share of technology with bigger negative externalities. |
| Keywords: | Power planning; Investing strategy; Operating strategy; Externalities; Linear programming |
| JEL: | Q54 Q40 |
| Date: | 2016–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biw:wpaper:97&r=agr |
| By: | Houssou, Nazaire; Asante-Addo, Collins; Andam, Kwaw S. |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses whether fertilizer subsidy programs can be better targeted to resource-poor farmers using the case of Ghana and proxy means test approaches. Past fertilizer subsidy programs in the country have not been particularly targeted to the poor, even as targeting poor and smallholder farmers has become key in the program implementation guidelines. As a result, many poor farmers have not benefited from past programs. Our results show that targeting approaches based on proxy means tests that use the correlates of poverty to select beneficiary farmers can potentially improve the poverty outreach and costeffectiveness of Ghana’s fertilizer subsidy programs. Therefore, we propose that the proxy means test approach should be considered for implementing Ghana’s fertilizer subsidy programs, first in a pilot project involving a few communities, and later, if found successful, in a full-scale program. |
| Keywords: | GHANA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA, poverty; smallholders; farmers; fertilizers; subsidies; resources; inputs; farm inputs, targeting; fertilizer subsidy; proxy means tests; community-based targeting, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1622&r=agr |
| By: | Nazziwa-Nviiri, Lydia; Van Campenhout, Bjorn; Amwonya, David |
| Abstract: | In the context of a growing population in an already densely populated area, agricultural yields will need to increase without putting additional stress on the environment. The adoption of modern inputs by smallholders is an important ingredient of agricultural transformation. In this study we explore plot-level, household-level, and institutional-level characteristics associated with agricultural technology adoption behavior among smallholder farmers. The aim is to uncover correlations that can guide the design of policies and incentives that are likely to increase adoption. We explicitly differentiate between fixed costs that are likely to affect the decision to use the technology and variable costs that are more relevant for the decision regarding use intensity. In addition, we examine how the importance of each of these characteristics differs with asset status. To do so, we use data from about 1,880 potato plots cultivated by 500 randomly selected potato growers in southwestern Uganda. We first categorize households into poorly endowed and well-endowed asset classes based on their access to productive assets. We then estimate double-hurdle models for take-up and use intensity of fertilizer for each group. The results show that the factors associated with the decision to use fertilizer are often different from those associated with the decision about how much fertilizer to use and that the characteristics correlated with fertilizer adoption differ between asset-poor and asset-rich farmers. For instance, asset-poor female-headed households are less likely to use fertilizer, but if they do, they use more of it than male-headed households. Our results also suggest fertilizer packaging and distribution are important factors in fertilizer adoption decisions due to their impact on costs related to both indivisibilities and uncertainty about the quality. We derive a range of policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | UGANDA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA, potatoes; fertilizers; farm inputs; technology; yields; smallholders; households; gender; assets; food production; marketing; packaging; technological changes, double-hurdle model; technology adoption, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1608&r=agr |
| By: | Gisela Campillo; Michael Mullan; Lola Vallejo |
| Abstract: | Developing countries are disproportionately affected by the rising trend of losses from climate-related extreme events. These losses are projected to continue to increase in future, driven by climate change and the accumulation of people and assets in high-risk areas. Effective climate change policies are needed to reduce the accumulation of risk, combined with instruments and tools to help retain, share or transfer financial losses if an extreme event occurs. These tools and instruments, collectively known as financial protection, can help people cope with the impacts of climate-related disasters, reduce costs of recovery and reconstruction, and encourage risk reduction. Linking financial protection and climate adaptation in development planning and policy has the potential to increase the resilience of affected communities. This paper uses case studies of Colombia and Senegal to examine how countries are using financial protection as part of their approaches to managing climate risks. The paper identifies emerging |
| Keywords: | adaptation, climate change, insurance, risk management |
| JEL: | F35 G22 H84 O19 Q54 |
| Date: | 2017–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:120-en&r=agr |
| By: | Grégoire Croidieu (GEM - Grenoble Ecole de Management - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)); Charles-Clemens Rüling (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc, GEM - Grenoble Ecole de Management - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)); Amélie Boutinot (ISG - International Business School [Paris], MC - Management et Comportement - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)) |
| Abstract: | The present paper examines how a new, creative genre emerges out of a commodity-based industry. Building on the genre-emergence literature, the paper analyzes the Australian wine industry since the 1950s. Based on content analysis of a wide variety of sources, the study identifies four mechanisms that account for creative-genre emergence: shifting and layering of metrics, analogies with established creative industries and practices, resonance with society-level logics, and personification. The results contribute to the genre-emergence and creative-industries literatures. |
| Keywords: | genre emergence,boundary formation,creative industries,production-of-culture perspective,Australian wine |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:gemptp:halshs-01498722&r=agr |
| By: | Christopher Boyce (University of Stirling, Stirling Management School, Economics Divisio); Mikolaj Czajkowski (University of Warsaw, Department of Economics); Nick Hanley (School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we undertake the first examination of the effects of personality on individual economic choices over public environmental goods, using a stated preference approach. Based on three data sets from three separate choice modelling studies, we examine the effects of personality on preferences for the status quo, for changes in environmental quality, and over the costs of investing in environmental improvement. Using a hybrid choice framework, we show that incorporating personality research into economic models can provide valuable behavioural insights, enriching explanations of why the demand for environmental goods varies across people. |
| Keywords: | personality, preference heterogeneity, hybrid choice models, stated preferences, choice models |
| JEL: | C35 D03 D12 D61 Q25 Q51 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sss:wpaper:2017-08&r=agr |
| By: | Victorien Barbet (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2 - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille 3 - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Renaud Bourlès (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2 - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille 3 - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Juliette Rouchier (LAMSADE - Laboratoire d'analyse et modélisation de systèmes pour l'aide à la décision - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamics of risk-sharing cooperatives among heterogeneous agents. Based of their knowledge on their risk exposure and the performance of the cooperatives, agents choose whether or not to remain in the risk-sharing agreement. We highlight the key role of other-regarding preferences, both altruism and inequality aversion, in stabilizing less segregated (and smaller) cooperatives. Limited knowledge and learning of own risk exposure also contributes to reducing segregation. Our finding shed light on the mechanisms behind risk-sharing agreements between agents heterogeneous in their risk exposure. |
| Keywords: | agent-Based,cooperative,risk-sharing,learning,altruism,other-regarding preferences |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01480539&r=agr |