|
on Agricultural Economics |
|
Issue of 2017‒04‒09
twenty-six papers chosen by |
| By: | Victor Nechifor-Vostinaru; Dr. Matthew Winning - UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources |
| Abstract: | Although perceived as an abundant resource, freshwater is disproportionally distributed across the globe determining 8% of the current population to live in severely water scarce regions. Irrigated agriculture, currently representing 70% of all freshwater withdrawals and thus a major source of water stress, could continue to expand its water requirements as a consequence of expected economic and population growth. In this research, future pressure over freshwater resources coming from irrigated crop production is captured by an Irrigation Withdrawal to Availability (IWA) indicator derived through a global Computable General Equilibrium framework. The metric is calculated for several socio-economic development pathways and considers technological evolution through differentiated irrigated and rainfed crop yield changes. The RESCU model employed explicitly uses freshwater as a factor in crop production, whilst clearly distinguishing between irrigated and rainfed production functions. Two scenarios are applied to three alternative SSPs (SSP1, SSP2, SSP5) - inherent yield improvements under a 'no climate change' assumption and yield changes due to climate change in the A1B carbon emissions pathway. Results show that freshwater withdrawals continue to expand in most of the regions that are currently water-stressed with the IWA increasing in some cases by more than 50% from 2004 levels. Other regions, such as China, benefit from yield improvements and thus shift from irrigated to rainfed crop production. Climate change leads to a further increase in the IWA for India and a decrease for Northern Africa, the rest of South Asia and the Middle East. The research uses a global dynamic recursive CGE model, RESCU (RESources CGE UCL). The opportunity to use a CGE framework is justified by the need to incorporate the effects of expected economic growth, evolution of factor supply and technological change over agricultural production. From a baseline output for each SSP scenario, the CGE model enables us to distinctly determine the impacts of productivity changes of inputs in crop production over freshwater demand. The model uses the GTAP 8.1 database for economic data. The GTAP regions are aggregated to 20 wider RESCU regions with a grouping done to reflect differences in terms of agro-ecological conditions and economic development. India and China are represented distinctly for a better distinction of their future freshwater challenges. The crop producing sectors are well represented in RESCU with each of the 8 crop types initially present in GTAP having distinct rainfed and irrigated production functions. Thus the GTAP database crop sectors are being split using rainfed and irrigated production information from the biophysical Global Crop Water Model GCWM (Siebert & Döll 2010). The value of irrigation is also disaggregated from the value of land used in irrigated crop production by using the value of lost production in a no irrigation world derived from the GCWM 'no irrigation' model run. Changes in freshwater demand in irrigation are thus captured at different levels: a) Changes in output of irrigated crops induced by economic growth b) Relative changes in output of different crop classes each with different irrigation water intensities c) Technological changes leading to input intensification or input efficiency gains. The research uses a global dynamic recursive CGE model, RESCU (RESources CGE UCL). The opportunity to use a CGE framework is justified by the need to incorporate the effects of expected economic growth, evolution of factor supply and technological change over agricultural production. From a baseline output for each SSP scenario, the CGE model enables us to distinctly determine the impacts of productivity changes of inputs in crop production over freshwater demand. The model uses the GTAP 8.1 database for economic data. The GTAP regions are aggregated to 20 wider RESCU regions with a grouping done to reflect differences in terms of agro-ecological conditions and economic development. India and China are represented distinctly for a better distinction of their future freshwater challenges. The crop producing sectors are well represented in RESCU with each of the 8 crop types initially present in GTAP having distinct rainfed and irrigated production functions. Thus the GTAP database crop sectors are being split using rainfed and irrigated production information from the biophysical Global Crop Water Model GCWM (Siebert & Döll 2010). The value of irrigation is also disaggregated from the value of land used in irrigated crop production by using the value of lost production in a no irrigation world derived from the GCWM ‘no irrigation’ model run. Changes in freshwater demand in irrigation are thus captured at different levels: - Changes in output of irrigated crops induced by economic growth - Relative changes in output of different crop classes each with different irrigation water intensities - Technological changes leading to input intensification or input efficiency gains The future freshwater withdrawal resulting from the model scenarios are then intersected with future freshwater availability (mean annual-run off) data coming from the ISI-MIP hydrological models. This allows for the computation of the indicators of irrigation water withdrawals relative to resource availability. The research produces a wide range of values for indicators of water stress induced by irrigated agriculture. This range reflects the spread of outcomes for socio-economic and technological changes anticipated in the climate change literature and the food production outlooks. Uncertainty with regards to global warming effects over freshwater availability is further incorporated through the use of results from multiple hydrological models. In terms of modelling advances, the RESCU model is one of the very few global CGE models to integrate freshwater as a distinct factor of production in agriculture. The further distinction between irrigated and rainfed crop production done through accounting rules which take climate conditions into consideration, pushes the CGE agriculture freshwater modelling beyond the current state-of-the-art. References Alcamo, J., Flörke, M. & Märker, M., 2007. Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(2), pp.247–275. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.2.247. Alexandratos, N. & Bruinsma, J., 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESA Work. Pap, 3. Calzadilla, A., Rehdanz, K. & Tol, R.S.J., 2010. The economic impact of more sustainable water use in agriculture: A computable general equilibrium analysis. Journal of Hydrology, 384(3-4), pp.292–305. Available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169409007902. Flörke, M. et al., 2013. Domestic and industrial water uses of the past 60 years as a mirror of socio-economic development: A global simulation study. Global Environmental Change, 23(1), pp.144–156. Available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378012001318. Rosegrant, M.W., Cai, X. & Cline, S.A., 2002. Water and food to 2025, Available at: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/water-and-food-2025. Schewe, J. et al., 2014. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(9), pp.3245–50. Available at: http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3245.full. Siebert, S. & Döll, P., 2010. Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses without irrigation. Journal of Hydrology, 384(3-4), pp.198–217. Available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169409004235 UNESCO, 2014. World Water Development Report 2014, Water and Energy, Available at: http://www.unesco.org/new/en/natural-sciences/environment/water/wwap/wwdr/2014-water-and-energy/ Van Vuuren, D.P. et al., 2014. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change, 122(3), pp.373–386. Available at: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584- 013-0906-1 |
| Keywords: | Global multi-regional assessment, Impact and scenario analysis, General equilibrium modeling |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9625&r=agr |
| By: | Roberto Roson (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari) |
| Abstract: | As part of a “Regional Initiative on Water Scarcity in the NENA Region”, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has been proposing a practical tool for the assessment of investment projects, called the Food Supply Cost Curve (FSCC). This chapter illustrates the concept of the Food Supply Cost Curve, and which steps need to be taken to practically implement an FSCC evaluation exercise. It concludes by commenting on some preliminary findings obtained at the FAO when the FSCC has been employed in some countries in the Near East and North Africa. |
| Keywords: | Water, Water Scarcity, Social Cost, Social Benefit, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Economic Efficiency, Food Security |
| JEL: | D61 Q01 Q11 Q11 Q17 Q18 Q25 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2017:04&r=agr |
| By: | Dirk Willenbockel; Claudia Ringler; Nikos Perez; Mark Rosegrant; Tingiu Zhu; Nathanial Matthews |
| Abstract: | There is a growing recognition that the ambitious UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) to end hunger, achieve food security and promote sustainable agriculture (SDG 2), to ensure universal access to water and sanitation (SDG 6), to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy (SDG7) and to combat climate change and its impacts (SDG 13) are linked in complex ways. The emerging literature on the energy-water-food nexus highlights the need to take account of the trade-offs and synergies among the goals arising from these linkages, but also underscores the need for further research to understand the quantitative relevance of the various channels through which measures towards the attainment of the goals affect each other. The presence of multiple conceivable pathways to the achievement of the SDGs by 2030 as well as the numerous uncertainties surrounding medium- to long-run projections for the global food system call for a scenario approach to development policy planning, and the development of plausible scenarios needs to be informed by quantitative modelling that captures the key linkages between energy, water, food and climate policy in a stylized form. Dynamic standard global computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are able to capture the input-output linkages between agricultural, food processing and energy sectors and the impacts of population and economic growth on structural change, energy and food demand as well as the impacts of policy interventions, but due to their coarse regional aggregation structure they are not suitable to take account of physical water scarcity constraints in a persuasive manner. In contrast, existing partial equilibrium (PE) multi-market models of global agriculture can incorporate hydrological constraints at detailed regional scales and support a more disaggregated representation of agricultural commodities than CGE models, but fail to take systematic account of linkages between agriculture, energy and the rest of the economy. To capture the advantages of both modelling approaches, the present study links a global dynamic multisector CGE model with a global dynamic PE multi-market model of agricultural supply, demand and trade. The linked modelling framework facilitates a quantitative analysis of the wider implications of agricultural sector scenario projections by taking systematic account of linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy and allows a rigorous theory-grounded general equilibrium welfare analysis of shocks to agriculture. Conversely, the linked approach supports a detailed analysis of the effects of shocks that initially hit non-agricultural sectors on agricultural variables and water security. In this paper, the approach is used to assess the impact of stylised climate change mitigation scenarios on energy prices, economic growth, food security and water availability. The modeling methodology links the global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GLOBE-Energy with IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) version 3. IMPACT3 is a modular integrated assessment model, linking information from climate models, crop simulation models and water models to a global partial equilibrium multi-market model of the agriculture sector. IMPACT3 has been designed to support longer-term scenario analysis through the integration of these multidisciplinary modules to provide researchers and policymakers with a flexible tool to assess and compare the potential effects of changes in biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, agricultural technologies, and policies. The core multimarket model simulates food supply and demand for 159 countries. Agricultural production is further disaggregated to include 320 food production units (FPUs), which are intersections of river basins and national boundaries, that is, an intersection of 154 river basins with 159 economic regions. The multimarket model simulates 62 agricultural commodity markets, covering all key food as well as key non-food crops, such as cotton. The water models in IMPACT3 include a global hydrology model (IGHM) that simulates snow accumulation and melt and rainfall-runoff processes at 0.5-degree latitude by 0.5-degree longitude resolution, a water basin supply and demand model (IWSM) that operates at the FPU level, and the IMPACT crop water allocation and stress model that estimates the impact of water shortages on crop yields, also at the FPU level. These three modules allow for an assessment of climate variability and change on water availability for the agriculture and other sectors, as well as for an assessment of changes in water demand, investment in water storage and irrigation infrastructure, and technological improvements on water and food security. In particular, the IGHM model simulates natural hydrological processes, thus estimating water availability, while the IWSM model simulates human appropriation of surface water and groundwater, considering water infrastructure capacity and policies, based on which we water stress calculations. The model can also simulate impact of changes in fertilizer prices on food supply and changes in energy prices on the demand for hydropower development and on groundwater pumping. GLOBE-Energy is a recursive-dynamic multi-region CGE model which features a detailed representation of the technical substitution possibilities in the power sector. The model is initially calibrated to the GTAP 8.1 database which represents the global economy-wide structure of production, demand and international trade at a regionally and sectorally disaggregated level for the benchmark year 2007. The model version employed in the present study distinguishes 24 commodity groups and production sectors, and 15 geographical regions. In the development of a dynamic baseline for the present study, the growth rates of labor-augmenting technical progress by region are calibrated such that the regional baseline GDP growth rates replicate the GDP growth assumed in the IMPACT baseline projections. Moreover, for agricultural commodities, the sectoral total factor productivity parameters are calibrated such that the baseline producer price paths are consistent with the corresponding aggregated IMPACT producer price projections. To ensure that the baseline projections for agricultural quantity variables generated by GLOBE are broadly in line with the corresponding aggregated IMPACT projections as well, the parameters of the household consumer demand system are calibrated to be consistent with the aggregated household income elasticities of demand for the matched food commodity groups assumed in IMPACT. The aggregate real income effects and changes in fertilier prices associated with energy-related climate change mitigation measures generated by GLOBE are then downscaled to the IMPACT regional aggregation level and passed back to IMPACT to analyse the detailed implications for agricultural variables, water and food security. The simulation analysis compares a baseline scenario using SSP2 (Shared Socio-Economic Pathway 2 – aka “middle of the road”) assumptions about population and GDP growth and no changes in fossil fuel taxes, with a stylized mitigation scenario. This mitigation scenario assumes a gradual linear phasing-in of additional taxes on the use of primary fossil fuels globally from 2016 onwards up to 2050 on top of baseline taxes such that the additional ad valorem tax wedges between producer and user prices reach 70, 50 and 30 percent for coal, crude oil and natural gas respectively by 2050. The resulting user price increases for the primary fossil fuels and refined petrol induce substitution effects towards renewable energy sources in production along with investments in more energy-efficient technologies as well as substitution effects towards less energy-intensive goods in final consumption. As a consequence, the demand for fossil fuels drops relative to the baseline and the producer prices for coal, crude oil and natural gas fall significantly, while the producer prices of refined petrol rise due to the increase in crude oil input costs. From a macroeconomic perspective, these price shifts entail terms-of-trade gains for regions that are net importers of the primary fossil fuels and corresponding terms-of-trade losses for the net importers of these fuels. Correspondingly, the aggregate real income reductions under this scenario are moderate to small for the net importing regions but more pronounced for the net exporters of primary fossil fuels. The provisional simulation results suggest only moderate indirect effects on agricultural prices and food security outcomes. While higher prices for chemical fertilizers and reduced groundwater pumping due to higher energy costs per se push crop prices up to some extent, the adverse real income effect on food demand pull crop prices in the opposite direction. The price effects are slightly more pronounced when the energy price increases are assumed to induce a significant increase in first-generation biofuel production relative to IMPACT baseline assumptions. |
| Keywords: | Global multi-region , Impact and scenario analysis, General equilibrium modeling |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9746&r=agr |
| By: | Vandercasteelen, Joachim; Tamru, Seneshaw; Minten, Bart; Swinnen, Johan |
| Abstract: | Urbanization is happening fast in the developing world and especially so in sub-Saharan Africa where growth rates of cities are among the highest in the world. While cities and, in particular, secondary towns, where most of the urban population in sub-Saharan Africa resides, affect agricultural practices in their rural hinterlands, this relationship is not well understood. To fill this gap, we develop a conceptual model to analyze how farmers’ proximity to cities of different sizes affects agricultural prices and intensification of farming. We then test these predictions using large-scale survey data from producers of teff, a major staple crop in Ethiopia, relying on unique data on transport costs and road networks and implementing an array of econometric models. We find that agricultural price behavior and intensification is determined by proximity to a city and the type of city. While proximity to cities has a strong positive effect on agricultural output prices and on uptake of modern inputs and yields on farms, the effects on prices and intensification measures are lower for farmers in the rural hinterlands of secondary towns compared to primate cities. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA, urbanization; towns; agricultural prices; intensive farming; intensification; developing countries; urban population; Eragrostis tef; inputs; yields, cities; secondary towns, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:esspwp:102&r=agr |
| By: | Pavone Sara (CNR-IRCrES Collegio Carlo Alberto - via Real Collegio, n. 30 10024 Moncalieri (Torino) – ITALY); Ragazzi Elena (CNR-IRCrES Collegio Carlo Alberto - via Real Collegio, n. 30 10024 Moncalieri (Torino) – ITALY); Sella Lisa (CNR-IRCrES Collegio Carlo Alberto - via Real Collegio, n. 30 10024 Moncalieri (Torino) – ITALY) |
| Abstract: | : This paper aims at analysing the role played by the Rural Development Programme (RDP) in supporting the Piedmont (Italy) agro-food industry, i.e. that part of the agricultural production chain characterised by the highest added value. This is a first attempt to extend the previous in itinere evaluation to an ex-post quasi experimental counterfactual evaluation of the subsidies’ net impact. Since the agri-food industry is characterised by an extreme variety of firms, and having observed that the treated firms do not share the characteristics of the average population. The counterfactual group has been selected by adopting the coarsened exact matching technique, a quite recent imbalance-reducing matching method. The final results do suggest, above all, a stabilizing effect of the subsidy in a period characterized by a sever worldwide economic crisis. However, since results are quite uncertain, we expect that on-going further research (on the data-base, the model, and balance sheet indicators) will lead to stronger conclusion on the effectiveness of the policy. Nonetheless, this exercise already shows that the selected matching set and methodology, the chosen timing, and the quality of the available data do strongly influence the impact analysis. |
| Keywords: | policy evaluation, agro-food industry, counterfactual analysis, coarsened exact matching. |
| JEL: | L52 L66 C49 D04 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csc:ircrwp:201501&r=agr |
| By: | Prince Etwire (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand); David Fielding (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand); Victoria Kahui (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | We apply a Structural Ricardian Model (SRM) to farm-level data from Ghana in order to estimate the impact of climate change on crop production. The SRM explicitly incorporates changes in farmers’ crop selection in response to variation in climate, a feature lacking in many existing models of climate change response in Africa. Two other novel features of our model are an estimate of the response of agricultural profits to differences in land tenure, and a comprehensive investigation of the appropriate functional form with which to model farmers’ responses. This final feature turns out to be important, since estimates of the effect of climate change turn out to be sensitive to the choice of functional form. |
| Keywords: | Structural Ricardian Model; climate change; Ghana |
| JEL: | O13 O55 Q12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:otg:wpaper:1706&r=agr |
| By: | Negassa, Asfaw; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Dereje, Mekdim |
| Abstract: | The livestock subsector has contributed little to the remarkable economic growth recorded in Ethiopia in the last decade. In an effort to stimulate livestock production, the Ethiopian government has recently recognized livestock as an important strategic subsector in which to invest. Unlike most studies that focus purely on aspects of livestock production, this study provides a detailed descriptive assessment of the livestock production and marketing behavior of smallholder mixed crop-livestock farmers. The study uses a dataset collected in the Agricultural Growth Program baseline survey from farm households in districts of Ethiopia with high potential in grain crops production, areas which have a significant share of the livestock in the country. Smallholder livestock production is characterized by lower levels of livestock ownership, limited market orientation, and lower productivity. These characteristics restrict the capacity of these livestock systems from taking advantage of the emerging opportunities in both domestic and export livestock markets. We find a high degree of heterogeneity in access to livestock assets, production practices, marketing, and livelihood strategies among farm households. Hence, a single policy recommendation might not work for all farmers. Our assessment apprises the current status of livestock production systems in Ethiopia and highlights potential income sources from livestock, including positive synergies between these income sources to help reduce poverty and to promote economic growth in rural communities. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA, economic growth; economic development; livestock; livestock production; smallholders; market access; rural communities; households; production; grain crops; marketing; livelihoods |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:esspwp:101&r=agr |
| By: | Kosec, Katrina; Ghebru, Hosaena; Holtemeyer, Brian; Mueller, Valerie; Schmidt, Emily |
| Abstract: | In Ethiopia, there are two binding forces (push and pull) that deserve attention when it comes to youth occupational and spatial mobility choices and the national land use and transfer policy. On the one hand, the fact that the land rental market in Ethiopia is supply constrained due to market and policy distortions marginalizes youth and serves as a push factor leading them to look elsewhere for a livelihood strategy. On the other hand, the regulatory conditions and restrictions attached to land use and inheritance rights may serve as a pull factor and force youth to be tied to the rural and/or farming sector. Our study thus aims to explore how youth land access (both inheritance and market-based) affects their migration and employment decisions. We explore this question in the context of rural Ethiopia using panel data from 2010 and 2014. We find that larger expected land inheritances significantly lower the likelihood of long-distance permanent migration and of permanent migration to urban areas during this time. Inheriting more land is also associated with a significantly higher likelihood of employment in agriculture and a lower likelihood of employment in the nonagricultural sector. Conversely, the decision to attend school is unaffected. These results appear to be most heavily driven by males and by the older half of our youth sample. We also find several mediating factors matter. Land inheritance plays a much more pronounced role in predicting rural-to-urban permanent migration and nonagricultural-sector employment in areas with less vibrant land markets and in relatively remote areas (those far from major urban centers). Overall, the results reaffirm the notion that push factors dominate pull factors in dictating occupational and migration decisions in Ethiopia and highlight youth preferences to use migration or non-agricultural employment as a last resort after exhausting other means of accessing land, such as temporary land rental. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA, agriculture; employment; migration; youth, land inheritance, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:esspwp:104&r=agr |
| By: | Berhane, Guush; Hoddinott, John F.; Kumar, Neha |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) is a large-scale social protection intervention aimed at improving food security and stabilizing asset levels. The PSNP contains a mix of public works employment and unconditional cash and food transfers. It is a well-targeted program; however, several years passed before payment levels reached the intended amounts. The PSNP has been successful in improving household food security. However, children’s nutritional status in the localities where the PSNP operates is poor, with 48 percent of children stunted in 2012. This leads to the question of whether the PSNP could improve child nutrition. In this paper, we examine the impact of the PSNP on children’s nutritional status over the period 2008–2012. Doing so requires paying particular attention to the targeting of the PSNP and how payment levels have evolved over time. Using inverse-probability-weighted regression-adjustment estimators, we find no evidence that the PSNP reduces either chronic undernutrition (height-for-age z-scores, stunting) or acute undernutrition (weight-for-height z-scores, wasting). While we cannot definitively identify the reason for this non-result, we note that child diet quality is poor. We find no evidence that the PSNP improves child consumption of pulses, oils, fruits, vegetables, dairy products, or animal-source proteins. Most mothers have not had contact with health extension workers nor have they received information on good feeding practices. Water practices, as captured by the likelihood that mothers boil drinking water, are poor. These findings, along with work by other researchers, have informed revisions to the PSNP. Future research will assess whether these revisions have led to improvements in the diets and anthropometric status of preschool children in Ethiopia. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, nutrition; children; nutritional status; stunting; food security; diet; health; malnutrition; anthropometry; social protection; social safety nets; resilience |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:esspwp:99&r=agr |
| By: | Nabeshima, Kaoru; Michida, Etsuyo |
| Abstract: | This paper first shows the trend of tea trade in major exporting countries. Although tea trade has been expanding, stricter regulation and tighter food safety requirements lead to a decline of trade and a consolidation of tea supply chains into a handful of multinationals is observed. Challenges that exporters face stemming from supply chain management as well as regulatory compliances are reviewed from the literature. Commoditization has been progressed with consumers' willingness to pay for organic or other special characteristics and it leads to consolidation of supply chains. Tea industry is shown as a good example for this global trend. Consolidation of supply chains has an important implication for economic development in developing countries that depend on agricultural export. |
| Keywords: | Tea, International trade, World, Food Standards Compliance, Importer, Supply Chain |
| JEL: | O12 D22 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper644&r=agr |
| By: | Gianluca Stefani (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa); Ginevra Lombardi (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa); Donato Romano (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa); Lorenzo Cei (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa) |
| Abstract: | The literature on environmental policy shows that institutional arrangements are key in designing effective environmental policies. Besides regulation and market (Coasian) solutions, grass root collective action has been advocated as a possible solution for the provision of agro-environmental public goods. We gauge that the same institutional arrangement can be found in many territorially integrated food chains that aims at re- embedding food production in the local society. Building on this literature, we present a case study - a short supply chain for bread production from ancient local wheat landraces in Tuscany – emphasizing the role played by collective action in maintaining high quality production in a context of severe information asymmetries. |
| Keywords: | Collective action, wheat landraces, integrated food chains |
| JEL: | Q13 D23 D71 D83 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2016_17.rdf&r=agr |
| By: | Schmidt, Emily; Tadesse, Fanaye |
| Abstract: | Agricultural productivity in the highlands of Ethiopia is threatened by severe land degradation, resulting in significant reductions in agricultural GDP. In order to mitigate ongoing erosion and soil nutrient loss in the productive agricultural highlands of the country, the government of Ethiopia initiated a Sustainable Land Management Program (SLMP) targeting 209 woredas (districts) in six regions of the country. This study evaluates the impact of SLMP on the value of agricultural production in select woredas by using a panel survey from 2010 to 2014. Whereas previous studies have used cross-sectional data and short timeframe field trials to measure sustainable land management (SLM) effects on agricultural productivity, this analysis exploits data collected over four years to assess impact. The results of this analysis show that participation by farmers in SLMP, regardless of the number of years of participation in the program, is not associated with significant increases in value of production. This may be due to several reasons. First, similar to previous studies, it is possible that longer term maintenance is necessary in order to experience significant benefits. For example, Schmidt and Tadesse (2014) report that farmers must maintain SLM for a minimum of seven years to reap benefits in value of production. Second, this analysis finds that value of production, as well as SLM investments, increased significantly in both treatment and non-treatment areas over the study period. Previous research has found that non-treatment neighbors learn from nearby program areas, and adopt technologies similar to programmed areas, which would dilute the impact measurement of program effects (Bernard et al. 2007; Angelucci and DiMaro 2010). Finally, it is important to note that kebeles that were not selected in the SLMP, but are downstream relative to a targeted kebele may receive indirect benefits through reduced flooding, increased water tables, etc. Thus, the impact of the SLMP may be underestimated in this analysis if non-program kebeles are benefiting indirectly from the program. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA, sustainability; land management; land degradation; productivity; agricultural development; water management |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:esspwp:103&r=agr |
| By: | Steven Glover; Vincenzo Salvucci; Sam Jones |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the dynamics of the agricultural sector in Mozambique, focusing on the role of commercial farms. Using agricultural survey data from 2002 to 2012, we analyse the spatial distribution of large farms and identify factors influencing their location decisions. We find that the spatial dispersion of large farms across the country is not uniform. Large farms tend to be located in wealthier and more educated areas, with better road access and higher levels of population density. Given an increasing volume of investments in the agricultural sector in Mozambique, a better understanding of these spatial trends can shed light on the processes through which large commercial farming entities may influence smallholder agricultural production and rural welfare. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-159&r=agr |
| By: | Römer, Ulf; Mußhoff, Oliver |
| Abstract: | [Purpose] In recent years, the application of credit scoring in urban microfinance institutions became popular, while rural microfinance institutions, which mainly lend to agricultural clients, are hesitating to adopt credit scoring. The present study aims to explore whether microfinance credit scoring models are suitable for agricultural clients, and if such models can be improved for agricultural clients by accounting for precipitation. [...] |
| Keywords: | Microfinance,Credit scoring,Agricultural credit,Precipitation |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:daredp:1703&r=agr |
| By: | Daniela Campus; Gianna Giannelli (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa) |
| Abstract: | Dramatic spikes in food prices, like those observed over the last years, represent a real threat to food security in developing countries with severe consequences for many aspects of human life. Price instability can also affect the intra-household allocation of time, thus changing the labour supply of women, who traditionally play the role of ‘shock absorbers’. This paper explores the nature of time poverty by examining how changes in the prices of the two major staples consumed, matooke and cassava, have affected the paid and unpaid labour time allocation in Ugandan households. We exploit the panel nature of the Uganda National Household Survey by adopting a Tobit-hybrid model. Our results show that gender differentials in the intra-household allocation of labour actually occur in correspondence with changes in food prices. We find that, overall, women work significantly more, since the additional hours women work in the labour market are not counterbalanced by a relevant reduction in their other labour activities. For men, we do not find any significant effect of price changes on hours of work. |
| Keywords: | food prices, labour supply, gender, Uganda |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J43 Q11 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2016_16.rdf&r=agr |
| By: | Narita, Daiju; Lemenih, Mulugeta; Shimoda, Yukimi; Ayana, Alemayehu N. |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia has experienced a long-term problem with deforestation. Despite the broad implications of such deforestation, or more generally of forests, on human life and economic activities, the accounting of a diverse range of forest values in Ethiopia is still in its infancy. This study aims to set a scope for such a comprehensive accounting of forest values in Ethiopia. Along with an overview of both quantitative and qualitative studies on forest values in Ethiopia, we conduct our own tentative estimation of Ethiopian forest values. Unlike the previous attempts at Ethiopian forest accounting, which are built on a direct extension of the SNA (System of National Accounts) framework, our estimation is based on a welfare-economic framework to evaluate changes in the value of forests as natural capital. |
| Keywords: | forest,natural capital,environmental accounting,ecosystem services |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:140&r=agr |
| By: | David Corderi Novoa; Jay R. Lund; Jeffrey Williams |
| Abstract: | The Dong Nai Delta in Vietnam has been projected to face long-term changes in physical conditions stemming from climate change. Sea level rise combined with changes in the hydrologic cycle will result in increased salinity conditions, causing significant damage to the current style of agricultural production. Adapting to these changes in salinity will require not only adjusting the cropping patterns, but also new water infrastructure investments. Two important questions arise for planners and practitioners. First, a balance needs to be found with regards to the appropriate timing of the investment. An important amount of investment is needed for new water infrastructure while salinity will increase gradually over time. Second, considerable trade-offs exist with respect to the location of the investment arising from the morphological characteristics of the delta. Constructing water infrastructure closer to the sea implies a higher investment cost. However, the additional benefits will be reduced since regions closer to the sea already have lower agricultural productivity due to greater salinity. This paper develops an economic model to analyse the optimal timing and location of water infrastructure investments in the Dong Nai Delta of Vietnam. This paper develops a dynamic programming model to analyze the timing and location of water infrastructure investments to control salinity in the Dong Nai Delta. Investment costs are estimated using engineering parameters. The benefits of water infrastructure are parameterized from an agricultural production model that uses positive mathematical programming to estimate the value of agricultural production as a function of salinity levels for each of the agricultural districts of the Delta. Each district has a different response to salinity in economic terms, resulting from diverse endowments of land, technology and crops being grown. The first model formulation assumes that salinity increases over a planning horizon of 40 years and finds the optimal timing (year) for building water infrastructure such that the value of agricultural production profits is maximized. The problem is formulated as a dynamic programming problem with one state variable and one control variable. I use a deterministic, discrete space and discrete control specification where time t is measured in years. The state variable represents salinity level at year t. The control variable is binary and represents the decision at year t on whether or not to build a sluice gate. The model is solved numerically for the optimal policy rule, i.e., the timing profile of sluice gate construction, using both value function iteration and backwards recursion. Sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to the specification of the agricultural profit function, the salinity trend, the value of sluice gate construction, and the choice of discount rate. The model is then extended to incorporate investment location choice in the decision variable. Again, the problem is formulated as a dynamic programming problem with one state variable and one control variable, except that the control variable represents both time and space. The spatial links between regions are also included both in the transition equation and the net benefit function of the water infrastructure investment decision. This paper demonstrates the importance of economic analysis for long-term investments in water infrastructure. Optimization methods can be used to study the appropriate design of investment plans integrating economic, engineering and hydrologic aspects. The framework of analysis can be extended to incorporate additional aspects relevant for decision-makers such as alternative salinity protection measures, equity considerations of investment plans, or infrastructure financing options. This paper developed a methodological framework to analyze the economics of water infrastructure investment timing and location. The first question addressed in the modeling framework is the appropriate timing to build water infrastructure. Simulation results suggest that the optimal timing for investment differs considerably if the possibility of adjusting cropping patterns is considered. The possibility of adapting the agricultural system by introducing new salt resistant varieties delays also the optimal timing for investment when compared to a situation of no crop substitution. Other parameters such as a higher water infrastructure investment cost or a higher rate of salinity growth shift the economic viability of construction to later or earlier periods respectively. The second question addressed in this chapter is the tradeoffs associated with the spatial characteristics of the delta and the location of the investment. Simulation results suggest that abandoning regions closer to the sea and concentrating salinity control in upstream regions improves the value of the investment. These results critically depend on the resolution of the model in terms of region size and variability in infrastructure construction costs. Improving the resolution of the model, introducing equity considerations and the interaction between different infrastructure investments are areas for further research in the subject. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, Developing countries, Optimization models |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9365&r=agr |
| By: | Dany Bahar (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Miguel Angel Santos (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | The literature on Dutch disease is extensive when it comes to documenting the negative impacts of natural resource exports on non-resource tradable goods as an aggregate. Little has been said on the impact of natural resources on non-resource export concentration, either from a broad perspective or at the product level. We explore this relationship using a variety of non-resource export concentration indexes for the period 1985-2010. We find significant evidence indicating that countries with high share of natural resources in exports tend to have less diversified non-resource export baskets. Furthermore, using highly disaggregated data at the product level we study what type of products are more likely to thrive or suffer in resource rich countries. We find that capital intensive goods tend to have larger shares on the non-resource export basket when natural resources are high. We also find that homogeneous goods make for a larger share of the non-resource export basket the lower their technological sophistication. For differentiated goods the pattern is reversed: they tend to make for a larger share of the non-resource export basket, the higher they are in the technology scale. |
| Keywords: | Export diversification, Dutch disease, homogeneous products, heterogeneous products, skill intensity, capital intensity |
| JEL: | F14 F43 O11 O13 Q33 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:68&r=agr |
| By: | Federico Tadei (Department of Economic History, Universitat de Barcelona.) |
| Abstract: | A common explanation for current African underdevelopment is the extractive character of institutions established during the colonial period. Yet, since colonial extraction is hard to quantify, the magnitude of this phenomenon is still unclear. In this paper, I address this gap in the literature by focusing on monopsonistic colonial trade in French Africa. By using new archival data on export prices, I provide yearly-estimates of colonial extraction via trade, measured as the gap between actual prices that the colonial trading companies paid to African agricultural producers and prices that should have been paid in a counter-factual competitive market (i.e. world prices minus trade costs). The results show that African prices were about half than what they would have been in competitive markets. This suggests that colonial trade dynamics was characterized by a considerable amount of extraction. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Development, Extractive Institutions, Colonization, Trade, Price Gaps |
| JEL: | N17 O43 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0109&r=agr |
| By: | Abay, Kibrom A.; Koru, Bethlehem; Abate, Gashaw T.; Berhane, Guush |
| Abstract: | What is the optimal size and composition of Rural Financial Cooperatives (RFCs)? With this broad question in mind, we characterize alternative formation of RFCs and their implications in improving the access of rural households to financial services, including savings, credit, and insurance services. We find that some features of RFCs have varying implications for delivering various financial services. The size of RFCs is found to have a nonlinear relationship with the various financial services RFCs provide. We also show that compositional heterogeneity among members, including diversity in wealth, is associated with higher access to credit services, while this has little implication on households’ savings behavior. Similarly, social cohesion among members is strongly associated with higher access to financial services. These empirical descriptions suggest that the optimal size and composition of RFCs may vary across the domains of financial services they are designed to facilitate. This evidence provides suggestive insights on how to ensure financial inclusion among smallholders, a pressing agenda and priority of policy makers in developing countries, including Ethiopia. The results also provide some insights into rural microfinance operations which are striving to satisfy members’ demand for financial services. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA,finance, economic development, rural finance, Rural financial cooperatives, compositional heterogeneity, wealth diversity, social cohesion |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:esspwp:100&r=agr |
| By: | Hiroki Sunohara (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Takahisa Mizuyama (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Fumio Takeda (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | The disaster risk area designation was created when the Building Standard Law was enacted in 1950, and so far more than 22, 000 areas have received the designation. Assistance programs for reloca-tion to a non-designated area are available, but a large number of buildings, residential or otherwise, still remain in designated areas. This study aims to explore possible future policies for disaster risk areas by conducting a systematic review of past debates on the issue using the Diet records; an overview of past designations based on the survey conducted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism; and a cross-sectional analysis of present prohibitions and restrictions on buildings imposed by the respective municipal and/or prefectural ordinances relative to the type of hazard identified for the designation. The study also includes a survey of the actual measures to promote renovation in disaster risk areas with the objective of upgrading the safety of buildings therein. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:16-32&r=agr |
| By: | Serena Ferrari |
| Abstract: | Les dernières décennies ont été marquées par d’importantes évolutions au sein du secteur laitier au Sénégal. En effet, l’industrie et le commerce du lait se sont beaucoup développés, en raison de l’urbanisation et des changements des habitudes alimentaires des populations urbaines. Cette thèse s’interroge sur les effets de ces évolutions sur le développement de la chaîne laitière locale et sur l’état de vulnérabilité des populations d’éleveurs. En s’appuyant sur la théorie de la gouvernance des chaînes globales de valeur et sur l’économie des coûts de transaction, la thèse cherche à appréhender quels modes de gouvernance permettent la viabilité des chaînes laitières industrielles sénégalaises. Grâce à la collecte de données qualitatives auprès des acteurs de ces chaînes de valeur et à l’analyse approfondie de dix entre elles dans les régions de Dakar et Kolda, cette thèse met en évidence deux facteurs principaux à la base de la viabilité des chaînes laitières industrielles. Premièrement, des stratégies de qualité portant sur l’origine locale de la matière première sont gagnantes sur le marché, puisque les consommateurs leur attribuent une valeur particulière. En outre, les services offerts par les laiteries aux producteurs locaux dans le cadre de telles stratégies de qualité contribuent à réduire la vulnérabilité de ces derniers et consolident donc la viabilité des chaînes de valeur, notamment sur le plan social. Deuxièmement, l’adoption de formes plurielles de gouvernance, dans le cadre d’un approvisionnement mixte lait en poudre/lait local, permet aux laiteries d’être économiquement viables. Elles sont en effet en mesure d’exploiter pleinement leurs capacités de production, de maîtriser les coûts d’achat de la matière première et de répondre aux exigences des consommateurs. |
| Abstract: | The Senegalese dairy sector has been marked by important changes in the last decades. Indeed, dairy industry and trade have been growing, because of urbanization and new dietary habits of urban populations. This thesis inquires into the effects of those changes on the development of the local dairy value chain and on the vulnerability of the local herder communities. Based on the theory of the governance of global value chains and on transaction cost economics, the thesis aims to understand which modes of governance enable the viability of the Senegalese industrial dairy chains. Through the collection of qualitative data from the actors of these value chains and through an in-depth analysis of ten of these chains in the regions of Dakar and Kolda, this thesis highlights two main factors underlying the viability of the industrial dairy chains. First, quality strategies focusing on the local origin of the raw material are successful on the market, since consumers attach to them a particular value. Moreover, the services that the dairy processors implementing those quality strategies offer to local producers contribute to reducing their vulnerability; hence, the social viability of the value chains is improved. Second, the adoption of plural forms of governance, within a mixed supply (milk powder/local milk), enables dairy processors to be economically viable. In fact, they are in a position to fully exploit their productive capacities, to control the cost of raw material purchases, and to meet consumer demands. |
| Keywords: | gouvernance; coûts de transaction; chaîne de valeur; lait; Sénégal |
| Date: | 2017–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/249201&r=agr |
| By: | Orachos Napasintuwong Author-Email : orachos.n@ku.ac.th (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics,Faculty of Economics,Kasetsart University,Thailand) |
| Abstract: | Today Thailand is the second largest field crop seed exporter in Asia with maize contributing the highest value to seed exports. Hybrid maize is considerably adopted in Thailand mainly due to the demand from feed industry and development of livestock and poultry industry. The success of varietal development of commercial maize hybrids is owed to the investments of international donors during the 1980s and continuous breeding efforts of multinational seed companies even as public institutions played a key role in maintaining genetic resources conservation and pre-commercial lines research. This paper reviews the history of research and development in maize and maize seed market development in Thailand. Furthermore, expert elicitation method is used to reveal the adoption of commercial maize varieties in 2013/2014 cropping seasons. The results of adopted maize varieties were used to estimate market shares and suggested that maize seed market in Thailand is moderately concentrated with tendencies towards oligopolistic competition. |
| Keywords: | Pork seed industry, maize, market structure, agricultural research |
| JEL: | Q16 Q13 L1 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kau:wpaper:201702&r=agr |
| By: | Sophie A. Rocks; Iljana Schubert; Emma Soane; Edgar Black; Rachel Muckle; Judith Petts; George Prpich; Simon J. Pollard |
| Abstract: | Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy-level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others. |
| Keywords: | environment; policy prioritization; strategic risk |
| JEL: | G32 |
| Date: | 2017–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:71580&r=agr |
| By: | Clémentine Rauzier (UM1 - Université Montpellier 1, Montpellier SupAgro - Centre International d'Etudes Supérieures Agronomiques); Foued Cheriet (UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - CIHEAM - Centre International des Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes) |
| Abstract: | Our work aims to report wine cellars circuit specificities, in the highly concentrated wine distribution context in France. To do this, we conducted three separate investigations to identify the various issues and different perceptions of stakeholders related to this activity (customers, wine cellars themselves, companies). Several results have been obtained both in terms of activity and associated quality perception by buyers, or related to differences between the wine cellars circuit and retail. For the wine cellar, its specialist status and its policy centered on the product, offer legitimacy to advise and prescribe wines to its customers that other circuits have not. These two attributes are provided by the proximity of wine cellars to their customers. Finally, the interest for wine enterprises to be referenced in this type of circuit is the assurance of gaining prestige and notoriety since the circuit is considered to offer the promise of a quality product beyond its role of prescriber. |
| Abstract: | L’objectif de notre travail est de rendre compte des spécificités du circuit de cavistes dans le secteur très concentré de la distribution du vin en France. Pour cela, nous avons mené trois enquêtes distinctes afin de cerner les différents enjeux et les perceptions de l’ensemble des acteurs se rapportant à cette activité (clients, cavistes eux-mêmes, entreprises). Plusieurs résultats ont été obtenus à la fois en termes d’activité que d’image associée par les acheteurs, ou des différences entre le circuit caviste et la grande distribution. Concernant le caviste, son statut de spécialiste et sa politique centrée sur le produit lui offrent une légitimité à conseiller et à prescrire des vins à sa clientèle que d’autres circuits n’ont pas. Ces deux attributs proviennent de la proximité des cavistes de leurs clients. Enfin, l’intérêt pour les metteurs en marché de vin de se faire référencer dans ce type de circuit est l’assurance de gagner en prestige et notoriété puisque le circuit est considéré comme la promesse d’une offre qualitative, au-delà de son rôle de prescripteur. |
| Keywords: | caviste,wine cellar, wine purchasing,prescribing,wine,buying,vin,achat,circuit de distribution |
| Date: | 2017–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01487106&r=agr |
| By: | Kudo, Yuya; Shonchoy, Abu S.; Takahashi, Kazushi |
| Abstract: | We implemented a 16-month randomized field experiment in unelectrified areas of Bangladesh to identify health impacts of solar lanterns among school-aged children. Our analysis of various health-related indicators?self-reporting, spirometers, and professional medical checkups?showed modest improvements in eye redness and irritation but no noticeable improvement in respiratory symptoms among treated students. Varying the number of solar products received within treatment households did not alter these results. This limited health benefit was not caused by nonutilization of the products by treated children, spillover effects from treated to control students, or treatment heterogeneity resulting from unfavorable family cooking environments. |
| Keywords: | Health and hygiene, Children, Energy, Clean energy, Indoor air pollution, Randomized control trials, Solar light |
| JEL: | O13 Q42 I15 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper646&r=agr |