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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2017‒04‒02
35 papers chosen by |
| By: | Amy Faye; Siwa Msangi |
| Abstract: | In Senegal, irrigated agriculture particularly horticultural crops mostly grown in the Niayes region, have attracted less attention in terms of climate change or variability studies. In the Niayes, farmers use almost exclusively groundwater resource for irrigation needs. Contrary to cereals, the effect of climate on irrigated crops is rather indirect as it mostly affects crop water requirements and irrigation water availability. Research has shown the negative effect of climate on aquifer recharge and depth on localized parts of the Niayes (Aguiar, 2010; DaSylva,2005, 2009). Combined with human use of water resources, climate variability may threaten irrigation water availability.In this paper, we evaluate optimal patterns of farmers' groundwater extraction under climate uncertainty and its implication on irrigation water availability. We also assess the potential gains from improved groundwater management.We use an integrated approach that combines a dynamic hydro-economic optimization model to evaluate farmers' withdrawals and groundwater levels in the myopic and central planner cases; a farm production model calibrated to data from the Niayes region by using the Positive Mathematical Programming approach of Howitt(1995) that embodies a Mitscherlich-Baule endogenous yield function to portray the yield response to water and a first order Markov chain to define a transition probability matrix and project rainfall levels through a simulation model. We use the Standardized Precipitation Index-SPI (McKee et al, 1993) to characterize climate conditions.Results illustrate that in a drought situation, farmers extract less water and aquifer lift is higher. However, the difference between a wet and dry situation is very low. Gains from managing the resource are also very low. Finally, results show that in a drought scenario, farmers tend to decrease the area allocated to crops with somecrops having greater decreases. We establish a baseline for economic efficiency in resource management, by solving an optimization problem which captures the social planner’s decision-making problem under uncertainty and limited foresight. We construct a stochastic dynamic programming model of resource management to maximize the sum of current benefits together with the net present value of future benefits from groundwater extraction for irrigation – which also takes into account groundwater extraction for other usages and the stochastic levels of rainfall that affect aquifer recharge. Results from this forward-looking optimization problem are compared to the myopic optimization behavior that farmers might typically display, under different climate states (normal, wet and dry), in order to assess the gains from improved resource management. We use an agricultural production model that is calibrated to data from this part of Senegal, using the Positive Mathematical Programming approach of Howitt (1995), and taking into account the costs of water extraction. We use the outputs of the agricultural production model to estimate the demand for water within the agricultural sector, and characterize the climate conditions with data on precipitation from the National agency of meteorology. Last but not least, the data on hydrological aspects are drawn from the literature (Gaye, 1990; Faye, 1995; El Faid, 1999; Tine, 2004; DGPRE, 2005, 2009) and the direction of management and planning of water resources (DGPRE) of Senegal. Our results illustrate the value of improved groundwater management in the horticultural sector of Niayes, and suggest the importance of including resource management in the plans for adaptation of agriculture to climate change for this region of Senegal. |
| Keywords: | Senegal, Agricultural issues, Optimization models |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8595&r=agr |
| By: | Mekonnen, Tigist (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the potential impact of improved agricultural technologies on smallholders’ crop productivity and welfare. We use household-level data from Ethiopian Rural Household Survey collected by IFPRI in 1989-2009. The survey covers around 1500 rural households drawn from four regions and 15 rural villages. Endogenous treatment effect model is employed to account for the selection bias on households’ technology adoption decision. The study employs both single and multi-level treatment effect approaches which is unique and represents a departure from previous impact evaluation studies which relied on single treatment effects. Results of the analysis indicate that there is positive and significant effect of improved technology adoption on the rural households’ crop productivity and welfare in Ethiopia. Key factors for crop productivity and household welfare in the rural farm households are educational level, farm size, credit access, labor use, an extension program, expenditure for modern input and asset holding. While large household size negatively affects the welfare of households. For improving productivity, food security and welfare of smallholder farmers, policy priority should be an investment in research and development on major cereal crops adapted to local agroecological condition. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural intensification, agricultural innovation, innovations, impacts, productivity, welfare, endogenous treatment effect model |
| JEL: | D24 I31 O13 O33 Q18 |
| Date: | 2017–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2017007&r=agr |
| By: | Marielle Montginoul (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs et Usages - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - Irstea - CIHEAM - Centre International des Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes); Anne-Gaëlle Figureau (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières); Patrice Garin (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs et Usages - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - Irstea - CIHEAM - Centre International des Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes); Cécile Herivaux (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières); Laurianne Morel (Chambre d'Agriculture des Bouches du Rhônes); Jean-Daniel Rinaudo (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) |
| Abstract: | The transcription of the 2000’s European Water Framework Directive in France has led to define maximum volumes that can be abstracted in water bodies. In many French contexts, it requires reducing more or less drastically current water consumption, especially in agriculture where farmers were granted permits by the water policy authority, regardless the real level of water availability. To do so, French water law imposes, where water bodies are structurally in water scarcity, to create irrigation associations charged to share available water between farmers. And the challenge is particularly high in the groundwater case, where farmers are not embedded in collective irrigation schemes. Sharing rules have then to be designed from the ground up. This communication presents and critics the way that innovative management instruments were explored in six cases’ studies representative of the diversity of agricultural products and hydrogeological situations. These instruments were debated during 18 foresight workshops held with institutional representatives (50) and farmers (87). Foresight workshops had the advantages to make credible institutional and resource changes, and to retrieve from current but side-debates. In five cases, researchers took the lead of these workshops, and in the last one it was directly carried by a stakeholder (an Agriculture Chamber), which allows to test the transferability of such a method in real context with a direct implementing goal. Lessons are drawn at several levels. Firstly, debating on contrasted scenarios is a robust way to facilitate discussions on something not implemented yet in France. Secondly, the context highly matters, in particular the perception of the reality of groundwater scarcitylevel. Thirdly, to debate on groundwater management tools has to be firstly embedded in a more general discussion, on the future of agriculture or at least on more broadly water challenges (like in terms of quantity and quality). |
| Keywords: | groundwater, foresight |
| Date: | 2016–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01331096&r=agr |
| By: | Tharcisse NKUNZIMANA; Tharcisse NKUNZIMANA; Jean-Baptiste HABYARIMANA |
| Abstract: | Recent changes and reforms in Rwandan agricultural policies, formulated since 2000, have emphasized on transforming agriculture sector from subsistence level into a modernized and more industrial and market oriented agricultural sector. The Vision 2020 launched in 2000, considers the agricultural sector as the principal source of economic growth of the country with an anticipated growth of between 5 - 6 percent each year to reach an overall economic growth of 7 – 8 percent projected in 2020, it has therefore placed greater emphasis on improving agriculture productivity (MINAGRI, 2009). As widely documented in the economic literature, policy changes and reforms adoption should improve the functioning of agricultural markets and enhance commodity market performance. Therefore, agricultural policy changes and reforms in the country have contributed to the decline of yield and crop production instability, improvement in food distribution system, investing in new products that can generate more revenues and has facilitated households to access foodstuff at fair prices. Nonetheless, food prices from 1998 to 2014 show sudden and sometimes tremendous food price variations. Rwanda agricultural markets represent a vital opportunity for commodity modelers to analyze and provide information on food price volatility and transmission. The findings from this paper will help to inform policymakers and decision takers on food market dynamics and their causes. In order to handle volatility in selected 5-6 crop commodities prices, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) developed by Bollerslev's (1986) as extension from Engle (1982) is used. Price transmission will be measured by vector error correction model (VEC) developed by Engle and Granger (1987). This econometric model allows to establish relationship (long-run equilibrium, short-run dynamics) between prices from different crop markets in different provinces of Rwanda. The time series properties of each of the price variables will be examined by using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test (Fuller, 1976). Taking into account the order of integration between markets, VECMs or vector auto-regressions (VARs) are specified and estimated. Several criteria like Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) for lag lengths are verified before the VEC and VAR models. At this stage, we do not have yet results but we have some assumptions/hypothesis. The first part on the literature review is finished. As now, we have the time series data on different 5-6 crop commodities in different provinces of Rwanda, we will quickly try to have some results and submit as soon as possible our full paper. |
| Keywords: | Rwanda, Agricultural issues, Modeling: new developments |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8417&r=agr |
| By: | Bekkers, Eddy; Brockmeier, Martina; Francois, Joseph; Yang, Fan |
| Abstract: | World food prices spiked in the periods 2007-2008 and 2010-2011. The impact of these spikes in world food prices on local food prices and thus on local consumers is determined by the food price pass through. Pass through is defined as the extent to which changes in world food prices lead to changes in local food prices. We examine the determinants of variation in food price pass through from global to local consumer prices in a global sample of 147 countries, using FAO data on world food prices and ILO data on food prices for consumers. While market integration matters, our study finds that income per capita is the dominant factor explaining cross-country variation in pass through of food prices. We estimate an elasticity of about -0.3 of pass through with respect to income per capita. This means far greater price transmission of food price shocks at the commodity level to final consumers in low income countries than in high income countries. The implication is that future swings in world food prices will in particular jeopardise food security in poor countries. Trade policy measures of market integration also affect the pass through significantly, whereas infrastructure and geography measures play no significant role. |
| Keywords: | Food Price Pass Through; Local Food Prices; Primary Food Shares |
| JEL: | Q02 Q11 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11912&r=agr |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | Important signs of progress in food security and nutrition and a commitment to sustainable development marked 2016. Yet challenges arising from dramatically changing political, economic, and demographic landscapes are sure to test the international momentum behind the new sustainable development agenda. As rapid urbanization continues around the world, poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition are increasingly becoming urban problems. This rapid shift is changing diets and reshaping food chains—from small farms to modern supermarkets. Going forward, policies and investments to end hunger and malnutrition must take account of the needs of poor urban populations and develop strong links between rural food producers and urban markets to support both rural and urban populations. |
| Keywords: | CHINA; EAST ASIA; BANGLADESH; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; INDIA; ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; SOUTH AMERICA; NORTH AMERICA; AUSTRALIA; EUROPE; food policies; agricultural policies; food security; agricultural development; poverty; poverty alleviation; economic development; urbanization; trade; markets; value chains; nutrition; malnutrition; hunger; food systems; urban areas |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:synops:9780896292550&r=agr |
| By: | Mekonnen, Tigist (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides empirical evidence regarding the impact of agricultural technologies on smallholders’ output market participation. The analysis is based on Farmer Innovation Fund impact evaluation survey collected by the World Bank in 2010-2012 covering 2,675 households in Ethiopia. Endogenous treatment effect and sample selection models are employed to account for the self-selection bias in technology adoption and market participation. Regressions based on matching techniques are employed for robustness check. The estimation results show that the use of improved agricultural inputs significantly affects farm households marketable surplus production. We found evidence that application of high-yielding varieties increases surplus crop production by 7.39 percent per year, whereas chemical fertilizer use increases surplus by 2.32 percent. When farmers apply the two inputs jointly, marketed surplus increases by 6 percent which establish the complementarity of the two technologies. Marketable surplus crop production and market participation of farmers are determined by access to modern inputs, crop price, farm size, availability of labor, and infrastructure. Access to credit and training fosters technology adoption. Therefore, agriculture and rural development policy need to focus on supporting agricultural technology adoption. |
| Keywords: | Surplus production, technologies, social network, Ethiopia, agricultural innovation,endogenous treatment effect model |
| JEL: | D04 O12 O13 O33 Q13 |
| Date: | 2017–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2017008&r=agr |
| By: | Cristina Sarasa; Virginie Doumax |
| Abstract: | In the last years, first-generation biofuels have been denounced as harmful in regards to their impacts on food crops prices, land use changes and ecological damages. As a consequence, recent regulations on biofuels require reporting on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. However, capturing all emissions involved in both biofuels production and use is quite tricky. In addition, the inclusion of GHG emissions from land-use changes (LUC) into law and policy remains a subject of active discussion in the literature, and feeding an intense research (Panichelli and Gnansounou, 2015). In this context, governments are very hesitant about supporting public policies for biofuels. While waiting for the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive to be revised, the European Union (EU) Parliament has called on the September 11th 2013 for a 6% limitation of crop-based biofuels and proposed a 2.5% binding incorporation target for advanced biofuels by 2020. But on June 13th 2014, the EU energy ministers came to a quite different agreement. In the latter, the limitation of first-generation biofuels is raised to 7% and none compulsory objective is defined for advanced biofuels. Member states only have to encourage the transition towards second and third-generation biofuels, and to respect a minimal incorporation rate of 0.5% in road transports. Those lower ambitions result from the EU biofuels industry claims and their fears about long-term profitability. New negotiations are expected in 2015 to adopt a common text. But the current contradictory views between the EU Parliament and energy ministers make the outcome largely uncertain. In this context, the main purpose of this work is to understand how to give a new direction for biofuels supporting policies to promote them without hurting the environment and the wellbeing of people. To do it, we address two objectives simultaneously. First, we carry out an exhaustive study of the current situation of the biofuels industry in the European Union. With this study, we are interested in answering the following questions: Which are the impacts of the former incorporation targets of biofuels in different countries? In which stage are EU countries in the process of production and commercialization of both first-generation and advanced biofuels? This first part allows us to identify risks associated to support policies to biofuels and to outline the best strategies depending on the aims pursued. Second, we assess a revision of the key modelling choices for evaluating the impact of biofuels production and consumption. The direct and indirect impacts of biofuels consumption on the environment may notably be significant. Therefore, this second part studies the methodologies and techniques applied on biofuels through a revision of Input-Output models and Computable General Equilibrium models, focusing on the best approach to estimate LUC-GHG emissions as well. We provide guidelines to address the carbon emissions associated to biofuels, and particularly to report the LUC–GHG emissions. These insights may help deciders to define new support policies and modellers to choose the best approach to estimate the complex impacts of agricultural-based biofuel production. Keywords: Biofuels, GHG emissions, Land use changes, Modelling References Panichelli, L. and Gnansounou, E. (2015), « Impact of agricultural-based biofuel production on greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change: Key modelling choices », Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 42(2015) 344–360. |
| Keywords: | European Union, Energy and environmental policy, Modeling: new developments |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8626&r=agr |
| By: | Zdenka Kroupova |
| Abstract: | Czech agriculture experienced a couple of important institutional and structural changes in the last two decades. These changes were predetermined by the accession of the Czech Republic to the European Union, an event which significantly influenced the performance, structure and size of Czech agriculture and had various impacts on specific sectors. The development in dairy sector after 2004 can be characterized by a reduction of cows, a growth of a milk yield, capital market imperfections, a high dependency of local farm price on world market price development, an increase of share of milk produced on specialized dairy farms and the strong dependency of farm performance on policy measurement, namely quotas and subsidies. An objective of the research is to evaluate the development of Czech dairy farms profitability and its main determinants. More specifically, the presented research examines the dynamics of productivity and profitability in the context of agricultural policy change. It is also focused on the extension of profitability decomposition modelling by policy measurements. The development of profitability and its determinants will be based on parametric econometric approach introduced in Kumbhakar and Lien (2009) and extended by Sipiläinen, Kumbhakar and Lien (2013). Their approach decomposes profitability into the output growth component, the output price component, the input price change component, the technical change component, the scale component, the mark-up component and the technical efficiency change component. Policy measurements are not included in this approach however subsidies and quotas influence production in several ways, e.g. by their effect on productivity and technical efficiency (Hadley, 2006; Zhu and Oude Lansink, 2010; Latruffe, 2010; Bokusheva, Kumbhakar and Lehmann, 2012). The presented research will link-up mentioned approaches. The research will be based on unbalanced panel data of Czech dairy farms-local entities gained from Albertina Databases from 2004 to 2013.The performance of Czech farms has been analysed in a number of studies. The profitability was evaluated by Chandrapala and Knápková (2013), Lososová and Zdeněk (2014). Machek (2013), Machek and Špička (2013), Čechura (2012), Curtiss and Jelínek (2012), Malá (2011), Blazejczyk-Majka et al. (2011), Svoboda and Novotná (2011) analysed the productivity and technical efficiency. However, only a few sector-specific studies can be found in the Czech Republic (Špička and Smutka, 2014; Čechura, Hockmann, Kroupová and Malý, 2014; Doucha, Foltýn and Humpál, 2012; Perný and Kubíčková, 2011; Foltýn, Kopeček, Zedníčková and Vávra, 2009) and they usually suffer from a lack of data availability. That is, our research fills the gap in sector-specific research of farm performance. From the result of mentioned studies we can suppose that the profitability of dairy farms decreased during the first part of analysed time period (2004-2009). After the year 2009, the profitability is supposed to increase by the positive effect of technical change and also by the investment subsidies. However, this increase is probably still negatively affected by scale component and technical efficiency component. The technical efficiency is probably negatively affected by direct payments. |
| Keywords: | Czech Republic, Agricultural issues, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8196&r=agr |
| By: | Mekonnen, Tigist (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the short-term impact of financial support to smallholder farmers and training program to married women in two regions of Ethiopia. Using household-level panel data from the World Bank collected in 2010-2012, the combined Difference-In-Difference (DID) and matching methods are applied. The three main findings emerge from the analysis shows that first; the program seems to improve rural households’ annual income from farm and non-farm economic activities (26 percent). Second, financial incentive positively affects smallholders’ innovative farm practices, adoption of modern technologies and new marketing approach. Third, only training to resource-poor rural women is not enough to their income earning activities. Farm households engage themselves in nonfarm economic activities measured in working days positively affect households’ income. However, the whole household member participation in agricultural activities has a negative effect on income, suggesting that the surplus labor participation on a small land holding household resulting in diminishing marginal return on income. |
| Keywords: | C93, O12, O33, Q14 |
| Date: | 2017–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2017009&r=agr |
| By: | OGAWA Kazuo |
| Abstract: | In this study, an empirical analysis was conducted on the behavior of Japanese rice producers from the standpoint of efficiency in production by using panel data from the Rice Production Cost Statistics by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. The stochastic frontier production function, which comprises four production factors (land, labor, capital stock, and materials), was estimated and the inefficiency indices of production were calculated. Based on this information, the efficient and inefficient rice producers were identified, and the factor demand behavior and characteristics of the arable land utilization for rice production were compared. It was found that inefficient rice producers do not make any adjustments in employment in the short or long run, even if there is a change in the wages. In addition, it was observed that efficient rice producers who hold a large amount of the farms partitioned into small plots reduced the arable land utilization for rice production and increased productivity. However, it was noted that the certified farmers, who should be aiming at an expansion of the scale of operation and efficiency of agricultural operations, tend to reduce arable land utilization for rice cultivation and switch to other crops; moreover, the more efficient the certified farmers are, the larger are the effects of such activities. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17020&r=agr |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin |
| Abstract: | The issue of assessment sustainability of agricultural farms as a whole and of different type is among the most topical for researchers, farmers, investors, administrators, politicians, interests groups and public at large. Despite that practically there are no assessments on sustainability level of Bulgarian farms in conditions of European Union Common Agricultural Policy implementation. This article applies a holistic framework and assesses sustainability of Bulgarian farms as a whole and of different juridical type, size, production specialisation, and ecological and geographical location. Initially the method of the study is outlined, and overall characteristics of surveyed holdings presented. After that an assessment is made of integral, governance, economic, social, environmental sustainability of farms in general and of different type and location. Next, structure of farms with different sustainability levels is analysed. Finally, factors for improving sustainability of Bulgarian farms are identified, and directions for further research and amelioration of farm management and public intervention in the sector suggested. |
| Keywords: | farm sustainability, governance, economic, social, ecological aspects, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | Q1 Q12 Q13 Q15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77463&r=agr |
| By: | Luisa Caluri; Tommaso Luzzati |
| Abstract: | A widespread opinion is that present human societies rely on models of production and consumption that have been shown to be dangerous for the ecosystems and unsustainable in general. On the supply side, developing innovative resource -efficient processes can bring changes . On the demand side,any policy aimed at changing individual consumption behaviour requires understanding its drivers. The present paper focuses on consumer’s actions in relation to pro-environmental outcomes The survey of the literature highlights some relevant models of decision processes concerning eco-friendly behaviours and related drivers. In the light of the survey, we elaborate a theoretical framework useful to analyse data extracted from an already submitted survey. The dataset contains information about drivers and environmental awareness in the shopping behaviour of 8001 consumers in the retail sector.The econometric estimates are consistent with the theoretical framework, adding also some new rele vant hints. Among our main findings are the lack of the “Attitude Behaviour Gap”, the importance of the general concern for environmental issues and the link between ethical values and pro-environmental inclinations and behaviours . |
| Keywords: | Attitudes, Attitude-Behaviour Gap, Consumer choice, Environmentally Significant Behaviour, Green purchases, Life-Cycle Assessment, OLS regression model. |
| Date: | 2016–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2016/207&r=agr |
| By: | Mohamed Arbi Abdeladhim; Mongi Sghaier; Abdallah Akari; Lindsay SHUTES (née CHANT) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the way that multiple analytical and empirical methods are used to calculate a composite indicator for an ex-ante impacts assessment of climate change on sustainable development in the context of arid zones in Tunisia. To quantify the composite indicator, a static Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) was adapted to the regional context. The Regional Social Matrix building (RSAM) building procedure was based on a set of techniques and approaches of regionalization. The national supply and use matrix has served as a starting point. A bottom-up approach has been used to build a regional supply and use matrix for the agricultural sector that take into account natural resources (land and water) as intermediate inputs. The regional SAM includes ten (10) production factors, eighteen (18) production sectors producing twenty two (22) goods and services, two (2) households, one representative enterprise, two (2) public sectors (Government and regional administration), seven (7) taxes, two (2) capital accounting accounts, the rest of the world and the rest of the country. The SAM has been used to calculate the regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Two simulations have been run i) the decline of natural capital due to the induced effects of climate change and ii) the regional climate change adaptation strategy. Based on the outputs of the CGE model the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategy on the main regional economic indicators were analyzed. Finally the multi-criteria analysis method (MCA) was used to calculate the aggregated regional indicator of sustainability Results showed that the regional climate change adaptation strategy has a positive impact but it’s not sufficient to maintain sustainability level as in the current situation. |
| Keywords: | Tunisia, Regional modeling, General equilibrium modeling |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8533&r=agr |
| By: | Tito Cordella; Eduardo Levy Yeyati |
| Abstract: | Why should developing countries buy expensive catastrophe (CAT) insurance? Abstracting from risk aversion or hedging motives, we find that insurance may have a catalytic role on external finance. Such effect is particularly strong in those low to middle income countries that face financial constraints when hit by a shock or in its anticipation. Insurance makes defaults less likely, thereby relaxing the country's borrowing constraint, and enhancing its access to capital markets. The presence of multilateral lenders that explicitly or implicitly provide inexpensive reconstruction funds in the aftermath of a natural disaster weakens but does not eliminate the demand for catalytic insurance |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:301&r=agr |
| By: | Matthias Kalkuhl; Lukas Kornher; Matthias Kalkuhl; Irfan Mujahid |
| Abstract: | International agricultural commodity markets have experienced high volatility in recent years which raised concerns about food security and poverty impacts in developing countries. Most existing research to understand price dynamics in developing countries uses either partial or general equilibrium models (typically with annual time resolution) or time-series analysis with monthly, weekly or daily frequency. While the former approach allows analyzing structural determinants of prices like transaction costs or trade policies, it does not allow to model short-term price fluctuations and volatility. The second approach using time-series models, however, has problems combining high-frequency price data with slow-moving structural variables like infrastructure, trade regime, policy interventions or annual harvest shocks. The work at hand overcomes the shortcomings of both approaches and contributes to the ongoing discussion on drivers of food price volatility by looking at structural causes of domestic food price instability in developing countries which are particularly affected by increasing international price volatility. We first develop an equilibrium trade model that is able to explain how several explanatory variables such as storage policy, production variability, trade policy, transaction costs and international market volatility affect domestic price variability. In doing so, the equilibrium model provides a theory-based prediction on the relevance and direction these variables which is then tested in the empirical model. The empirical model uses a comprehensive data set of grain prices in more than 70 developing countries and innovative approaches to measure policy involvement. It addresses nonlinearities with respect to different country types and impacts of stabilization policies. The empirical analysis employs a dynamic panel, estimated by system generalized method of moment (GMM) that successfully accounts for changes in volatility over time. The panel approach also accounts for country and crop fixed effect. The regression results support the evidence that international price volatility and institutional quality strongly impact on domestic price volatility. New evidence is provided with respect to heterogeneity between study countries. According to this, grain stocks are particularly price stabilizing in food importing countries that are most dependent on international trade. Furthermore, the spill-over of international volatility is almost double for importer countries. Non significance of production shocks for intra-annual volatility does not differ from the exiting empirical literature. Distinguishing between high and low intervention countries shows that market related variables as stocks, trade policies, general inflation, and institutional quality are unimportant or less important to explain volatility in countries with interventionist governments. Regression results for public storage and food aid distribution look inconsistent as we find the level of public stocks to increase volatility, while food aid distribution stabilizes prices. On the other hand, the level of public stocks does not necessarily capture the extent of market intervention and further research is required to clearly extract the effects. Most insightful are the findings with respect to trade policies and regional integration. Insulation policies significantly reduce domestic price volatility not only for exporters but also for trade switchers at relevant margins. Using a unique data set on bilateral trade agreements, we find the relative share of regional trade to have a dominant stabilization effect on all types of countries. These results emphasize the positive effect of regional integration on trade flows and trade policy volatility. From this, a clear policy recommendation towards regional market integration can be deduced. |
| Keywords: | Several developing countries (>70), Agricultural issues, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8415&r=agr |
| By: | Suzuki, Aya; Vu, Hoang Nam |
| Abstract: | Despite the growth of aquaculture exports from developing countries in recent years, a high percentage of these products are rejected at developed countries' ports because of non-compliance with international standards. This paper presents a case study of the shrimp aquaculture sector in Vietnam to examine the factors behind the persistence of such port rejections. In particular, we focus on why the so-called Better Management Practices (BMPs) are not appropriately adopted by many farmers and examine whether the number and types of information sources matter in farmers' decisions on BMP adoption and whether BMP adoption actually leads to better performances. On the basis of our estimation using primary data collected in Southern Vietnam, we find that information sources and training experiences indeed matter in the adoption of a higher number of BMPs and that BMP adoption indeed reduces the possibility of disease outbreaks. These results prove the effectiveness of BMPs and suggest the importance of disseminating knowledge regarding them to farmers through experts. |
| Keywords: | Aquaculture, Production management, Quality control, International trade, Vietnam, Port rejection, Better Management Practices |
| JEL: | L15 O13 O19 F63 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper643&r=agr |
| By: | Daniel Ayalew Ali; Klaus Deininger; Anthony Harris |
| Abstract: | Almost a decade after the rise in land demand triggered by the 2007/08 commodity price boom, most potential target countries still lack access to relevant information on a routine basis. |
| Keywords: | land acquisition, Ethiopia, International |
| JEL: | F Z |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:c3b2db4337a44358afc0bc93c6d729b3&r=agr |
| By: | Sviataslau Valasiuk (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Mikołaj Czajkowski (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Marek Giergiczny (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Tomasz Żylicz (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Knut Veisten (Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo); Askill Harkjerr Halse (Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo); Iratxe Landa Mata (Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo); Marine Elbakidze (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; Forest-Landscape-Society Network); Per Angelstam (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; Forest-Landscape-Society Network) |
| Abstract: | Landscape restoration can improve functionality of land cover patches as green infrastructure, which is essential to ensure the provision of a diverse range of ecosystem services. However, so far designation of protected areas in Fennoscandia has focused primarily on remnant patches of naturally dynamic forests, and not on landscape level restoration. We applied stated preference methodology to assess citizens’ preferences for forest landscape restoration in a cross-border region primarily managed for the industrial forestry, and – at the same time – hosting the transboundary Fulufjället National Park, shared between Sweden and Norway. There is scope for improving green infrastructure functionality by landscape restoration in adjacent forest areas, and including them into the National Park, which aims at gradual restoration of natural processes. In both countries, 54% and 55% choices made, respectively, indicated willingness to pay for extending the National Park by some area of forest landscape restoration. |
| Keywords: | stated preference valuation, passive protection, transboundary nature protected areas, naturally dynamics boreal forests, willingness-to-pay |
| JEL: | Q23 Q28 Q51 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2017-10&r=agr |
| By: | Gorkhmaz Imanov; G. Imanov; R. Yusifzada; A.Mansurov |
| Abstract: | Green Economy is one of the most important criteria of sustainable development of the country. UNEP defines green economy as “one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. It is low carbon, resource efficient, and socially inclusive”. The concept of green economy has to replace brown economy as world economic development progresses. Decades of creating new wealth through the ‘brown economy’ model is based on fossil fuels having not substantiality addressed social marginalization environmental degradation and resource depletion. In addition to this, world is still far from delivering on the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. United Nation Department of Economic and Social Affairs, having analyzed over 80 publications on the green economy and green growth concepts, offers economic, social and ecological indicators to measure level of green economy development. Also, it is suggests to use Global Green Economy Index – GGEI and NASDAQ OMX Green Economy Benchmark Index (QGREEN) for to estimation of level of Green Economy. GGEI is estimated using following indicators: Clean energy technology, Sustainable forms tourism and Improved domestic environmental quality. QGREEN includes following – Energy efficiency, Clean fuels, Renewable energy generation, Natural resources, Water, Pollution mitigation and Advanced materials. The green economy will emerge in different forms in different regions, depending on local economic strengths and weaknesses. This paper proposes National Green Economy Index (NGEI) to define level of development of green economy in Azerbaijan. To meet this objective we use following eleven indicators: Ecological quality – ECQ, Renewable energy – REE, Protection land – PRL, Green tourism – TOR, Quality of life – QOL, Green GDP- EPP, Energy intensity - ENI, Organic agriculture – ORA, Worldwide governance index – WGI, International Innovation Index - III, Transport greenhouse gas emissions per capita - GHG. Research that has been undertaken, using fuzzy logic methods, on the National Green Economy Development Index for Azerbaijan, shows, that very low value of this index is primarily influenced by the very low level of renewable energy use, low levels of protected land, green tourism and ecological quality in Azerbaijan. Problem of distribution between sectors of Green Economy has to be researched in order to improve this situation in the future. |
| Keywords: | In order to achieve this, we have used data available from Azerbaijan and international organizations (UNEP, OECD). In order to solve problem of the National Green Economy Index (NGEI) estimation we have applied fuzzy set and fuzzy logic theory., Energy and environmental policy, Modeling: new developments |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8725&r=agr |
| By: | Isabelle Chort (LEDa, UMR DIAL-Paris-Dauphine); Maelys de la Rupelle (THEMA, Université de Cergy-Pontoise) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses state-level migration flow data between Mexico and the U.S. from 1999 to 2011 to investigate the migration response to climate shocks and the mitigating impact of an agricultural cash-transfer program (PROCAMPO) and a disaster fund (Fonden). Our results suggest that droughts increase undocumented migration. Fonden amounts are found to mitigate the effect of climate shocks by lowering the undocumented migration response to precipitation anomalies. Similarly an increase in the share of PROCAMPO funds to the ejido sector decreases undocumented migration after a shock. By contrast, we find no robust evidence of a mitigating impact on documented migration. |
| Keywords: | International migration, Climate change, Public policies, Weather variability, Natural disasters, Mexico-U.S. migration. |
| JEL: | F22 Q54 Q18 J61 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201704&r=agr |
| By: | Angelucci, Manuela; De Giorgi, Giacomo; Rasul, Imran |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a novel motive for resource pooling in family networks in rural economies: to relax credit constraints and facilitate investment in non-collateralizeable assets for which credit market imperfections are most binding. We thus complement established literature examining risk-sharing motives for resource transfers within family networks, as well as motives based on kinship tax obligations. We do so exploiting the Progresa program data, in which family networks can be identified, households are subject to large exogenous resource inflows, and detailed responses on consumption and an array of investments can be tracked in a household panel over five years. We find that for every dollar that accrues to the family network through Progresa transfers, food consumption expenditures increase by around 65c for both households eligible for Progresa and ineligible members of the same family network. Hence the marginal propensity of families to invest/save out of every dollar is around .35, and we document how this is channeled towards easing credit constraints poorer network members face in financing non-collateralizable investments into their children's human capital. We show these consumption and investment benefits of being embedded within a family network are sustained five years after households first experience resource transfers from Progresa. Hence the interplay between resource inflows and resource pooling by family networks can place network members on sustained paths out of poverty. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11889&r=agr |
| By: | António Xavier (Universidade do Algarve e MeditBio); Maria Belem Freitas; Maria do Socorro Rosário (Direção de Serviços de Estatística, GPP (Gabinete de Planeamento e Políticas)); Rui Fragoso (Universidade de Évora e CEFAGE-UE) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to present an entropy approach in order to disaggregate agricultural data (temporary and permanent crop’s areas) at a local level. It comprises several steps of application. In a first one, a HJ-Biplot methodology and a cluster analysis is implemented. In a second step an interactive procedure is developed to establish relations between the land use cartography and statistics, and then coefficients of data allocation for each variable are created. Finally, in a third step, in order to manage information inputs and guaranty consistency a minimum cross entropy process is implemented. The model was applied to the region of Algarve and showed satisfactory results since the estimated values revealed a good approximation to the true values. |
| Keywords: | Data disaggregation; Minimum Cross Entropy; Land Uses; Algarve. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2016_06&r=agr |
| By: | Pothen, Frank; Welsch, Heinz |
| Abstract: | Between 1990 and 2008, many industrializing countries have experienced tremendous economic growth, which coincided with a substantial increase in the use of materials. That poses the question how a continued economic convergence of developing nations will affect the use of biomass, fossil fuels, and minerals. Building on the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, this study investigates whether material use reaches a maximum at a certain level of economic development and declines in income thereafter. Two indicators operationalize material use. Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) measures the apparent use of materials in a country. The Material Footprint (MFP) quantifies all materials extracted to produce a country's final demand, including materials embodied in imports. Employing a panel consisting of 144 countries, initial estimations results suggest an S-shaped (cubic) relationship between GDP per capita and material use, but the relationship is monotonically positive over most of the income range. The coefficients of the cubic model tend to become nonsignificant once endogeneity and non-stationarity are accounted for. A linear specification yields a significant (positive) coefficient irrespective of the estimation method and can thus be considered a satisfactory approximation to the income-material use relationship. The linear models that account for endogeneity and non-stationarity suggest a greater income-materials elasticity for MFP than for DMC. The long-run income elasticity is estimated to be 0.562 for DMC and 0.752 for MFP. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development; Material Use; Material Footprint; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Economic Transformation |
| JEL: | C36 O13 Q32 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-588&r=agr |
| By: | Zuzana Smeets Kristkova; Michiel van Dijk; Hans van Meijl |
| Abstract: | Food security is one of the largest challenges facing mankind in the next half century (as acknowledged for instance by UNDP, 2012 and UNEP, 2012). The projections of population growth warn that by 2050 the agricultural sector will have to feed 9 billion people, which requires doubling the current levels of food production. Due to the constrained expansion of agricultural land, technical progress is required that will drive agricultural productivity and therefore make an important contribution to future improvements of global food security. Long-term projections of global food security should take into account that food security is a multidimensional concept, which includes dimensions of availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability (FAO, 2000). The availability dimension is associated with the physical supply of food which increasingly relies on technical change in agriculture, triggered by investments to research and development (Avila and Evenson, 2010). The most contemporary global state-of-the art CGE models however do not accurately reflect this linkage (i.e. models included in the Agmip Global Economic Comparison Project). The accessibility dimension is related to households’ income and the evolution and variability of food prices (Sen, 1981). However, the experiment performed by Robison et al. (2013) showed that food prices projections may be highly diverging under various technical change assumptions that specify the type of factor-bias and the inter-sectoral spillovers. The paper aims at providing projections of food security in a GTAP-based CGE model MAGNET (Modular Applied General Equilibrium Tool), developed at LEI. Main contributions of this paper are threefold: i) it provides long-term projections of food security with R&D driven endogenous technical change and thus it partially opens the “black-box” in modelling technical change, ii) it builds on empirical estimates of endogenous technical change and thus it increases the reliability of food price projections, iii) it encompasses various dimensions of food security in a general equilibrium framework, which enables to capture important inter-sectoral linkages in factor markets and the effects of R&D spillovers across all regions of the world. The modelling approach is based on the incorporation of a specific R&D module into MAGNET, in which two types of R&D activities are distinguished - public and private agricultural R&D. Public agricultural R&D is considered as a land-augmenting research activity, represented mainly by investments into new crop varieties, which is fully demanded by government. Certain lag is considered before R&D is fully transmitted into higher land productivity. Moreover, public R&D spillovers are included in the model based on the regional distance from the global technology frontier. On the other hand, private R&D investments are considered as by-product activities of agricultural input sectors (agriculture, chemical and transport industry) assuming that the R&D investment incentives go hand in hand with the industrial performance. Private R&D investments stimulate land and labor-augmenting technical change via knowledge which acts as a new production factor in the economy. The projections of Food security are obtained for the period 2007 – 2050. There are four baseline scenarios that have been constructed in a joint stakeholder/modelling process and that reflect the future of global economy taking into account dimensions of inequality and sustainability. In this paper, the projections of food security are analysed for these four baseline scenarios assuming that governmental expenditures on R&D follow regional GDP growth. Besides standard indicators such as agricultural production and prices, specific food security indicators including nutritional status of the households are reported. |
| Keywords: | Food security projections are calculated for 35 aggregated regions of the world. However, specific “food-secure” relevant countries are included individually, namely: Indonesia, India, Ghana, Ethiopia and Uganda. , General equilibrium modeling, Agricultural issues |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8601&r=agr |
| By: | Ackah, Ishmael |
| Abstract: | Reducing the amount of energy used in producing a given output is a cost-effective way of tackling global warming. In addition, energy efficiency promotes energy security and saves cost. This study is structured in three parts. First, the energy efficiency practices of small and medium scale enterprises in rural Ghana are investigated. Second, the study applies the Product Generational Dematerialisation method to examine the energy efficiency consumption of electricity and fossil fuels in Ghana. Finally, the general unrestricted model (GUM) is applied to energy consumption in Ghana. The results reveal that reduction in energy consumption among SMEs can be attributed mostly to blackouts and not efficiency as indicated by 72% of the respondents. Further, all three models confirmed that the consumption of energy has not been efficient. Further, productivity was found to be a major driver of energy efficiency. The study recommends public education and the use of new appliances (‘not second hand’) to save energy. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency, Energy Consumption, Ghana, Product Generational Dematerialization, SMEs |
| JEL: | Q2 Q21 Q28 Q4 Q41 |
| Date: | 2017–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77484&r=agr |
| By: | Arjan Verschoor (University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK); Bereket Kebede (University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK); Alistair Munro (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Marcela Tarazona (Oxford Policy Management, Oxford, UK) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether the nature of gender relations matters for the effects on household efficiency of exogenous variation in spousal control over the intra-household allocation of resources. Experiments testing for efficiency were conducted among married couples in eight sites representing a range of conjugal cultures: from an extreme form of separate spheres in northern Nigeria to (male) centralised control in North India, along with a variety of intermediate cases. Inefficiency is widespread, varies greatly and tends to be lower when wives control the allocation. The exception is a site in northern Nigeria where female control over resources is well established. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:16-31&r=agr |
| By: | Andersson, Camilla (National Institute of Economic Research); Stage, Jester (Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Luleå University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Swedish legislation makes municipalities responsible for recycling or disposing of household waste. Municipalities therefore play an important role in achieving Swe-den’s increased levels of ambition in the waste management area and in achieving the goal of a more circular economy. This paper studies how two municipal policy instruments – weight-based waste tariffs and special systems for the collection of food waste – affect the collected volumes of different types of waste. We find that a system of collecting food waste separately is more effective overall than imposing weight-based waste tariffs in respect not only of reducing the amounts of waste destined for incineration, but also of increasing materials recycling and biological recovery, despite the fact that the direct incentive effects of these two systems should be similar. Separate food waste collection was associated with increased recycling not only of food waste but also of other waste. This suggests that the signalling effect of food waste collection, i.e. indirectly indicating to households that recycling is important and desirable, may be as important as direct incentive effects. |
| Keywords: | food waste collection; signalling; Sweden; waste management; waste tariffs; |
| JEL: | Q50 Q53 |
| Date: | 2017–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0148&r=agr |
| By: | Frank Pothen (Leibniz University Hannover); Heinz Welsch (University of Olddenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Between 1990 and 2008, many industrializing countries have experienced tremendous economic growth, which coincided with a substantial increase in the use of materials. That poses the question how a continued economic convergence of developing nations will affect the use of biomass, fossil fuels, and minerals. Building on the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, this study investigates whether material use reaches a maximum at a certain level of economic development and declines in income thereafter. Two indicators operationalize material use. Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) measures the apparent use of materials in a country. The Material Footprint (MFP) quantifies all materials extracted to produce a country's final demand, including materials embodied in imports. Employing a panel consisting of 144 countries, initial estimations results suggest an S-shaped (cubic) relationship between GDP per capita and material use, but the relationship is monotonically positive over most of the income range. The coefficients of the cubic model tend to become nonsignificant once endogeneity and non-stationarity are accounted for. A linear specification yields a significant (positive) coefficient irrespective of the estimation method and can thus be considered a satisfactory approximation to the income-material use relationship. The linear models that account for endogeneity and non-stationarity suggest a greater income-materials elasticity for MFP than for DMC. The long-run income elasticity is estimated to be 0.562 for DMC and 0.752 for MFP. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development; Material Use; Material Footprint; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Economic Transformation |
| JEL: | C36 O13 Q32 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:399&r=agr |
| By: | Spash, Clive L. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus009:5499&r=agr |
| By: | Vollmer, Elisabeth; Hermann, Daniel; Mußhoff, Oliver |
| Abstract: | The identification of the optimal selling time of stored goods is among the most essential eco-nomic decisions on a farm. Beyond monetary aspects, behavioral factors may influence farmers' selling behavior. In financial economics, the disposition effect is a commonly observed phenomenon. It indicates that investors hold losing stocks too long, while they sell stocks that have increased in value too early. In the context of agriculture, this behavioral bias has not been analyzed thoroughly yet. To close this research gap, we conducted an incentivized online experiment with 112 farmers in Germany. The experimental design was based on well-proven experiments from financial economics and adapted to an agricultural decision context where stored goods must be sold. Farmers were provided information on the uncertain price developments. In addition, lotteries were conducted to elicit farmers' risk attitude, probability weighting, and loss aversion. Results indicate that there is a robust disposition effect in farmers' selling behavior. Furthermore, more loss-averse farmers exhibited a higher disposition effect. |
| Keywords: | disposition effect,experiments,farmers |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:daredp:1701&r=agr |
| By: | Lukáš Rečka; Milan Ščasný |
| Abstract: | The Czech Republic, with a 28% of GDP represented by industry, belongs among the most industrialized countries in the EU (Eurostat, 20115). Although the air quality in the Czech Republic has significantly improved as a result of stricter air quality control during the transition period in 1990’s and the implementation of environmental acquis communitaire of the European Union in the following decade (Moldan & Hak, 2007), further airborne emission reduction is desirable (Ščasný et al.2009). In reality, however, since the end of 1990’s the rate of emission reduction has slowed down significantly (EEA, 2014). The aim of our paper is therefore to identify sectors with the highest economic potential for reduction of sulphurous emissions in the Czech Republic, measured through the shadow price of SO2 across the industry sectors. We also aim to compare the implicit price of SO2 emissions with the magnitude of damage caused by these emissions and with the current level of market-based instruments which should internalise these external costs.In this paper, we specifically follow the Mekaroonreung & Johnson study (2012) and apply Convex Nonparametric Least Squares quadratic optimization to analyse technical efficiency jointly with emission shadow price estimation. Then we apply the impact pathway analysis embedded in the ExternE method (Preiss et al. 2008) to quantify the environmental external costs attributable to SO2 emissions. Lastly, the shadow prices (i.e. the marginal abatement costs) are compared with corresponding external costs to draw policy-relevant conclusions.Our results support our hypothesis that the sectors with low production of SO2 emission might have higher shadow prices of SO2 than the sectors with a high volume of SO2. On average, the highest shadow price of SO2 – above 5,000€ per ton of SO2 – is estimated for ‘Textiles’, ‘Manufacture of non-metallic mineral products’, and ‘Manufacture of medical products’, while the lowest time-average of SO2 shadow prices are estimated for ‘Electrical machinery’ (478€) and ‘Sewage and refuse disposal’, ‘Fabricated metals products’, ‘Renting of machinery’, ‘Manufacture of basic metals’, and ‘Coal mining’, ranging from 613€ to 737€. In the remaining sectors, the estimated shadow price of SO2 varies between 850€ and 2,450€ per ton of SO2. In the Electricity, gas & hot water sector – which releases the highest volume of SO2 emission – the average shadow price during the period 2000 to 2008 is 1,480€, and the shadow price decreases from 2,113€ to 803€ in 2007 and then it increases to 1,117€ in 2008. These results correspond to the previous estimates we obtained by using ODF method (Rečka & Ščasný, 2011); the median and weighted average of shadow price of SO2 for coal and lignite power plants in the Czech Republic were estimated at 1,074€ and 1,548€, respectively. The average, weighted by industry GVA, shadow price of SO2 decreases over time, especially from 2004, starting at 2,527€ per ton of SO2 in 2000 and reaching its minimum at 708€ in 2007. In 2008, there is an increase to 1,172 € per ton of SO2 on average. Our results are in line with the technology specific marginal abatement cost (MAC) as estimated for the Czech Republic by other approaches; for instance, the MACs of ton SO2 derived from the GAINS database on the costs and technical potential of current and prospected abatement technologies (Ščasný et al. 2008) are in the range of 430 to 4,000 €, and the implicit MACs derived from the computable general equilibrium GEM-E3 model (Pye et al. 2008) are between 545 and 785 € per ton of SO2. We also found that the SO2 shadow prices are in almost all sectors smaller than the magnitude of the external cost associated with SO2 emissions, that is 7,235€ per each ton. The only three exceptions, ‘Textil, Mineral products’ and ‘Manufacture of Medical instrument’ sectors, for which in some years we record a higher shadow price for SO2 than the corresponding external cost. However these two sectors release only a negligible amount of SO2 emissions with very limited potential to reduce them. |
| Keywords: | The Czech Republic , Energy and environmental policy, Sectoral issues |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8523&r=agr |
| By: | Hina, Hafsa |
| Abstract: | Terrorism in Pakistan has become a main and highly critical phenomenon in recent years. It is affecting the economy significantly. This study aims to determine the effect of personal sense of insecurity on household consumption pattern of Pakistan. Pakistan Panel Household Survey (PPHS) 2010, conducted by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics and World Bank are used for the analysis. The empirical results suggest that personal sense of insecurity alters the households’ consumption expenditure significantly. Households adjust their consumption expenditure when they sense insecurity by increasing the expenditure on food items and cut their expenditure on non-food durable and non-food non-durable commodities. |
| Keywords: | Terrorism, Personal sense of insecurity, Consumption Pattern, Pakistan. |
| JEL: | D1 |
| Date: | 2017–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77410&r=agr |
| By: | Alain Desdoigts; Francesco Cordaro |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uds:wpaper:20160005&r=agr |
| By: | José Belbute (Department of Economics, University of Évora and CEFAGE-UE); Alfredo M. Pereira (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg) |
| Abstract: | We provide alternative reference forecasts for global CO2 emissions based on an ARFIMA model estimated with annual data from 1750 to 2014. These forecasts are free from additional assumptions on demographic and economic variables that are commonly used in reference forecasts, as they only rely on the properties of the underlying stochastic process for CO2 emissions, as well as on all the observed information it incorporates. In this sense, these forecasts are more based on fundamentals. Our reference forecast suggests that in 2030, 2040 and 2050, in the absence of any structural changes of any type, CO2 would likely be at about 23.1%, 29.1% and 33.7% above 2010 emission levels, respectively. These values are clearly below the levels proposed by other reference scenarios available in the literature. This is important, as it suggests that the ongoing policy goals are actually within much closer reach than what is implied by the standard CO2 reference emission scenarios. Having lower and more realistic reference emissions projections not only gives a truer assessment of the policy efforts that are needed, but also highlights the lower costs involved in mitigation efforts, thereby maximizing the likelihood of more widespread energy and environmental policy efforts. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting; Reference scenario; CO2 emissions; Long memory; ARFIMA. |
| JEL: | C22 C53 O13 Q47 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2016_08&r=agr |