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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2017‒03‒26
nineteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Lara Cockx; Liesbeth Colen; Joachim De Weerdt |
| Abstract: | There is rising concern that the ongoing wave of urbanization will have profound effects on eating patterns and increase the risk of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases. Yet, our understanding of urbanization as a driver of food consumption remains limited and primarily based upon research designs that fail to disentangle the effect of living in an urban environment from other socioeconomic disparities. Data from the Tanzania National Panel Survey, which tracked out-migrating respondents, allow us to compare individuals’ dietary patterns before and after they relocated from rural to urban areas and assess whether those changes differ from household members who stayed behind or moved to a different rural area. We find that individuals who relocated to urban areas experience a much more pronounced shift away from the consumption of traditional staples, and towards more high-sugar, conveniently consumed and prepared foods. Contrary to what is often claimed in the literature, living in an urban environment is not found to contribute positively to the intake of protein-rich foods, nor to diet diversity. Though we do not find a strong association with weight gain, these changes in eating patterns represent a clear nutritional concern regarding the potential longer-term impacts of urbanization. Our results however also indicate that the growth of unhealthy food consumption with urbanization is largely linked to rising incomes. As such, health concerns over diets can be expected to spread rapidly to less-urbanized areas as well, as soon as income growth takes off there. Our findings clearly call for more in-depth research that may help to improve health and food and nutrition security as well as correctly predict food demand and adapt trade, agricultural and development policies. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:licosp:575175&r=agr |
| By: | Katsushi S. Imai (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan and School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, UK); Raghav Gaiha (Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University Boston, USA); Fabrizio Bresciani (Asia and the Pacific Division of International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper has first examined whether the labour productivities in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors have converged or not using both annual and five-year average panel datasets. We have found evidence that non-agricultural labour productivity and agricultural labour productivity did not converge as the former has grown faster and the gap has increased significantly over time. We have then found that (i) agricultural labour productivity has converged across countries; (ii) non-agricultural labour productivity has converged across countries; and (iii) the convergence effect is stronger for the non-agricultural sector. We have also found some evidence that agricultural labour productivity growth promoted non-agricultural productivity growth with some lag. That is, despite the lower growth in agricultural labour productivity, the agricultural sector played an important role in promoting non-agricultural labour productivity and thus in non-agricultural growth. Finally, we have examined whether the labour productivity gap between the agricultural and the non-agricultural sectors reduced poverty, inequality and the share of the sectoral population over time. While the result varies depending on the specification, we have found some evidence that the labour productivity gap reduces both urban and rural poverty over time as well as the national inequality. The gap also is found to increase the share of the urban population. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2017-04&r=agr |
| By: | Mogilevskii, Roman; Abdrazakova, Nazgul; Bolotbekova, Aida; Chalbasova, Saule; Dzhumaeva, Shoola; Tilekeyev, Kanat |
| Abstract: | Kyrgyz agriculture experienced substantial reform during the 1990s and early 2000s. Subsequently, the pace of reform slowed and at present the government does not appear to have any clear strategy for further development in the sector. Summarizing the outcomes of these reforms, a certain freedom granted to farmers stands out as one of the main achievements and an important reason for the sector's efficiency. Peasant farms are effectively protected from attempts to administratively regulate crop structure or introduce any other types of market distortions. However, an insufficient level of investments is undermining long-term prospects for development in the sector. Supporting large professional players in the sector is one of the key policy priorities of the government. It is however necessary to provide space for these enterprises to emerge on their own. It is additionally important to ensure that any support policies in favor of such players also provide positive spillovers to the small farmers around them, and do not aim at replacing them mechanically. The list of incomplete policy reforms is very long, especially in the area of natural resource management and provision of other essential public goods. The state of pastures and irrigation systems is alarming and requires government support well above its current level. Understanding the key areas for government intervention and focusing interventions on public goods provision should be the key components of a future agricultural development strategy. |
| Keywords: | farm restructuring,agricultural productivity,irrigation,pasture reform,agricultural policy,Kyrgyzstan,Landwirtschaftliche Umstrukturierung,landwirtschaftliche Produktivität,Bewässerung,Bodenreform,Agrarpolitik,Kirgistan |
| JEL: | P41 P47 Q15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:162&r=agr |
| By: | Francis Makamu (Oklahoma State University); Harounan Kazianga (Oklahoma State University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the mass resettlement of rural population in Tanzania that occurred in early 1970s. The policy was implemented to strengthen the role of the state in establishing villages for communal production and development. The villagisation process that followed was implemented with unclear goals, haste and at some point coercion that it was unlikely to bring any short-term improvement in the rural economy. We exploit a recent survey data to examine the impact of the ujamaa operation on farming activities. Our findings show that areas affected by the villagisation in which proprietary rights in land were given to households had significantly better transferability rights and had made significant investments in land. We detect improvement in access to rural credit market and a closing gender gap in land ownership. |
| Keywords: | Property rights, Land tenure, Land redistribution, Villagisation, Tanzania |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:okl:wpaper:1708&r=agr |
| By: | Marta Kozicka; Dr Matthias Kalkuhl; Jan Brockhaus |
| Abstract: | The food market in India is characterised by a high degree of government involvement, especially in two staple food grain markets – rice and wheat. As a result, the private sector is crowded out and the market is shaped by the interplay of the two forces – private and public. The government intervention starts before the planting, when the Minimum Support Price (MSP) is announced. Grains are procured from the farmers (open end procurement) with the guaranteed MSP, which should cover the production costs and a ‘reasonable’ margin for the farmers. The procured grains are stored as buffer stocks (consisting of operational and strategic stocks) which are run by the state. Grains are further distributed to the poor with heavily subsidised prices through the Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS). The excessive stocks can be released to the market through Open Market Sales Scheme (OMSS) or exported. The open end procurement, high MSP and strong trade limitations result in high public procurement rates . Most of the time, the actual stocks manifold exceed the buffers stock norms and even the country’s storing capacity This in turn results in massive damages of grains. Additionally, the TPDS suffers from huge targeting errors, subsidies are very costly and incompatible with WTO standards. In the light of the rising fiscal costs of the system, its inefficiency and high food inflation, there is a need for finding cost-effective alternatives. Assessment of their costs and benefits is especially important in the wake of all India implementation of the National Food Security Act, 2013, which brings an extension to the current system by the guaranteed provision of heavily subsidised grains to almost 70% of the population. There is also an international pressure on India to reform its food sector due to its impacts on world market prices. Also the recent prorogation of implementation of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA), which limits support for farmers to 10% of the value of production, is only a temporary solution. Domestically, there are rising voices advocating for introduction of cash transfers instead of TPDS. The current study provides a model for the quantitative assessment of the major food policies on the food sector in India. It is based on a model of the Indian food sector, which encompasses the duality of the system - the coexistence of private and public forces. The model is a two-market (rice and wheat) yearly partial equilibrium model. Functional forms and most of the parameters used in the model are derived from the ex post econometric analysis of the data from 1982 to 2012 . As a result, the model is based on the careful data analysis and in depth study of the system, which makes it a reliable and comprehensible tool for simulations of the implications of different policies. In the model, the two markets interact with each other through their substitution in demand and storage. Computation of the equilibrium prices is formulated as a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) and executed in the generalized algebraic modelling systems (GAMS) software. Quantities procured by the government (with the MSP), closing private stocks, exports, production, demand and fiscal costs are determined endogenously through equations or the complementarity conditions. Interaction between the MSP and the market price determines the amounts procured by the government. Private stocks are driven by total market supply, trade policy and partially crowded out by public stocks. Production strongly and significantly responds to MSP (short-term price elasticity for wheat equal to 0.47 and 0.39 for rice). Rice consumption is influenced by TPDS and wheat demand responds to market prices. Public exports are exogenous and OMSS off-takes are a constant share (10%) of excessive public stocks (stock above norm). World rice prices are endogenous (large country case) and for wheat exogenous. As to our best knowledge this is the first study which captures all the major food policies in India and quantifies their impact on the stocks, prices and fiscal costs. In this study the alternative exogenous policy scenarios are compared with respect to their impact on the domestic prices, public stock levels and related fiscal costs. The particular considered policy options are: • Liberal system: shifting from the MSP to deficiency payments and TPDS towards direct cash transfers, including a liberalization of international trade (relying more on the imports in case of crop failure) • Expanding the TPDS under the NFSA (as mentioned above, increasing the scope of the distribution and lowering the distribution price) within the current system (with open end procurement and holding public stocks) under different trade regimes The simulation model based on the econometric estimation reproduces the basic dual market dynamics well. |
| Keywords: | India, Agricultural issues, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8377&r=agr |
| By: | Carillo, B.; Branco, D.; Trujillo, J.; Lima, J.; |
| Abstract: | The burning of forest releases a wide range of contaminants, some of which are known to be hazardous for health. Traditional estimates of the costs of deforestation rarely incorporate the health effects of pollution generated by deforestation. This paper provides the first estimates of the local externalities of deforestation in infant health. Our approach exploits a conservation policy that generated a sharp drop in deforestation across municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon. The core findings are that deforestation control policy led to reductions in the incidence of very low birth weight and extreme prematurity, especially for boys. Collectively, these findings provide additional justification for controlling deforestation. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation; Environmental Quality; Conservation Policy; Infant Health; Brazil |
| JEL: | I12 K32 Q51 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:17/09&r=agr |
| By: | Syed Abul Hasan; Mathias Sinning |
| Abstract: | This paper uses detailed information about household supermarket purchases from the Australian Nielsen Homescan Survey to estimate price elasticities of demand for a range of food categories. An instrumental variable strategy is employed to address endogeneity issues. The estimates obtained from our analysis are used to study five scenarios in which the rate of the GST on food categories is increased or in which the tax base is broadened to include currently GST-free categories. Our findings reveal that there is considerable scope for raising revenue by increasing the rate and broadening the tax base. Low-income households (the bottom 40% of the income distribution) can be compensated for the loss in consumption induced by a tax increase. We demonstrate that increasing the rate of the GST from 10% to 15% and broadening the tax base would increase tax revenues by up to $8.6 billion, whereas compensating lowincome households would require up to $2.2 billion. We also provide a detailed list of tax revenues and compensation payments associated with each food category to allow readers to “build their own tax reform” by choosing the categories that should be taxed. |
| Keywords: | Household Consumption, Food Price Elasticity, Tax Reform |
| JEL: | D12 D60 H2 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:crwfrp:1705&r=agr |
| By: | Langbein, Jörg; Peters, Jörg; Vance, Colin |
| Abstract: | More than 3 billion people use wood fuels for their daily cooking needs, with detrimental health implications related to smoke emissions. Global initiatives to disseminate clean cooking stoves emphasize technologies that are either expensive, such as electricity and gasifier stoves, or for which supply chains hardly reach rural areas, such as LPG. This emphasis neglects that many households in the developing world cook outdoors. Our calculations demonstrate that for such households, already the use of less expensive biomass cooking stoves can substantially reduce smoke exposure. The costeffectiveness of clean cooking policies can thus be improved by taking cooking location and ventilation into account. |
| Keywords: | air pollution,health behavior,energy access |
| JEL: | Q53 I12 O13 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:680&r=agr |
| By: | Belyaeva, Maria; Bokusheva, Raushan |
| Abstract: | We conduct an examination of the climate effect to analyze the historical dependence of grain production on temperatures and precipitation levels, and project this dependence to estimate the productivity of different grain types in the mid- and long-terms, given four greenhouse gas concentration pathways. We find that altering temperatures have an equivocal effect on agriculture. The most productive zones of the southern black soil belt is projected to face considerable declines in yields, due to insufficient precipitation levels and high probability of heat waves during the summer vegetation period. The northern part, on the contrary, can experience increases in productivity as a result of milder and drier winters and warmer springs. |
| Keywords: | Russia,grain production,climate change,Russland,Getreideproduktion,Klimawandel |
| JEL: | Q12 Q16 Q54 P32 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:161&r=agr |
| By: | Villas-Boas, Sofia B; Bonnet, Celine; Hilger, James |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2017–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt160178v4&r=agr |
| By: | Armagan Tuna Aktuna-Gunes (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Okay Gunes (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | We introduce the demand elasticity of available working time into the model of domestic production in order to show that the limits on discretionary times use may alter the estimates of time use elasticity of substitution good. Our elasticity estimation result for food is 0.50 in Turkey for 2007, which ranges from 0.22 to 0.56 in the literature. However, the elasticity of substitution for food rises up to 0.92 when one considers working time available with all consumption groups, suggesting that households may overcome time scarcity and increase working time by reducing time spent in the leisure, transportation, other and personal care and health categories. This process, in turn, yields good intensive consumption in Turkey. We obtain more robust estimation results by using the opportunity cost of time measurement proposed by Gardes (2016) for Turkish households in 2007. In this work, the Time Use Survey for 2006 is matched with the 2007 Household Budget Survey |
| Keywords: | Household production; Time use elasticity of substitution; Rubins' matching statistics; Working Time Available |
| JEL: | C53 D12 D13 J22 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:17016&r=agr |
| By: | Sara Parry (Bangor University); Paul Westhead |
| Abstract: | The evolution of relationship marketing (RM) in a new technology-based firm (NTBF) located in a rural resource-constrained bilingual context is explored over a five year period. Evidence from an in-depth longitudinal case study illustrates that a novice entrepreneur can adapt by developing mutually beneficial relationships to retain customers and acquire resources required for venture development. By analysing information from the NTBF’s entrepreneur, customers and other actors, we build theory and present propositions relating to the RM process. We contribute by illustrating that social embeddedness is a key dimension of RM in a rural resource - constrained bilingual context. Implications for practice are discussed |
| Keywords: | Relationship marketing, bilingual context, social embeddedness, new technology-based firm. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bng:wpaper:16002&r=agr |
| By: | Knight, S.J; Howley, P.; |
| Abstract: | In order to estimate the welfare effects of exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), we combine life satisfaction data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and UK Household Longitudinal Survey (UKHLS) with detailed air quality records held by the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). To address endogeneity concerns, we linked these with a variety of georeferenced datasets capturing differences in economic, social and environmental conditions across neighbourhoods. We also took advantage of the panel nature of our data by employing individual fixed effects. Our results suggest a significant and negative association between mean annual ambient NO2 and life satisfaction, and moreover that these effects are substantive and comparable to that of many ’big hitting’ life events. |
| Keywords: | NO2; air pollution; life satisfaction; well-being; environmental quality; Understanding Society; British Household Panel Survey; Geographic Information Systems(GIS),England; |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:17/08&r=agr |
| By: | Sviataslau Valasiuk (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Mikołaj Czajkowski (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Marek Giergiczny (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Tomasz Żylicz (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Knut Veisten (Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo); Marine Elbakidze (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; Forest-Landscape-Society Network) |
| Abstract: | Transboundary nature protected areas constitute a considerable proportion of all the existing spatial forms of biodiversity protection. There is a considerable literature on allocation of funds to preserving nature shared by several countries, though less research on the economic benefits that citizens attach to protected transboundary land nature on the other side of the border. We are trying to find out and compare preferences towards increased protection of domestic and foreign segments of the Białowieża Forest, stated by samples of Polish and Belarusian citizens. Whilst Poles on average are willing to pay for an increased passive protection, on their side of the border, most Belarusians seem to be satisfied with the status quo. There is even an apparent mutual disutility derived from the perspective of co-financing bilateral passive protection programmes in the Białowieża Forest. The results can to some extent be explained by a strict border division, by differences in welfare or by behavioural reasons. |
| Keywords: | transboundary nature protected areas, passive protection, discrete choice experiment, willingness-to-pay, latent class model |
| JEL: | Q23 Q28 Q51 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2017-09&r=agr |
| By: | William D. Nordhaus (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Many areas of the natural and social sciences involve complex systems that link together multiple sectors. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are approaches that integrate knowledge from two or more domains into a single framework, and these are particularly important for climate change. One of the earliest IAMs for climate change was the DICE/RICE family of models, first published in Nordhaus (1992), with the latest version in Nordhaus (2017, 2017a). A difficulty in assessing IAMs is the inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure. In the absence of statistical tests, the present study examines the extent of revisions of the DICE model over its quarter-century history. The study find that the major revisions have come primarily from the economic aspects of the model, whereas the environmental changes have been much smaller. Particularly sharp revisions have occurred for global output, damages, and the social cost of carbon. These results indicate that the economic projections are the least precise parts of IAMs and deserve much greater study than has been the case up to now, especially careful studies of long-run economic growth (to 2100 and beyond). |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Integrated assessment models, DICE model, Revisions |
| JEL: | Q5 Q54 H4 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2084&r=agr |
| By: | Christophe Gouel; Houssein Guimbard |
| Abstract: | Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income, demand system, known as the Modified Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (MAIDADS). The resulting model is transparent and estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT. It captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are as follows: (1) global food demand will increase by 46%, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (2) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (3) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a 95% increase in demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 18% increase in demand for starchy staples; and (4) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties: depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 78 to 109% and from 20 to 42%, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Bennett’s law;food demand;food security;nutrition transition |
| JEL: | D12 Q11 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-05&r=agr |
| By: | Hans Gersbach (ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Marie-Catherine Riekhof (ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | We introduce an international technology treaty that couples the funding of research for a more advanced abatement technology with an international emissions permit market. Under the treaty, each country decides on the amount of permits for its domestic industries, but a fraction of these permits is auctioned on the permit market, and the revenues are used to scale up license revenues for the innovators of abatement technologies. We discuss the conditions under which such a technology treaty can slow down climate change through technological innovations and whether it creates complementary incentives for countries to tighten permit issuance. Finally, we discuss how participation in Tech Treaties can be fostered and how such treaties might be implemented. |
| Keywords: | Climate change mitigation, Technology promotion, International permit markets, International treaty, Externalities |
| JEL: | H23 Q54 O31 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:17-268&r=agr |
| By: | Joan Hamory Hicks; Marieke Kleemans; Nicholas Y. Li; Edward Miguel |
| Abstract: | Recent research has pointed to large gaps in labor productivity between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors in low-income countries, as well as between workers in rural and urban areas. Most estimates are based on national accounts or repeated cross-sections of micro-survey data, and as a result typically struggle to account for individual selection between sectors. This paper contributes to this literature using long-run individual-level panel data from two low-income countries (Indonesia and Kenya). Accounting for individual fixed effects leads to much smaller estimated productivity gains from moving into the non-agricultural sector (or urban areas), reducing estimated gaps by over 80 percent. Per capita consumption gaps between non-agricultural and agricultural sectors, as well as between urban and rural areas, are also close to zero once individual fixed effects are included. Estimated productivity gaps do not emerge up to five years after a move between sectors, nor are they larger in big cities. We evaluate whether these findings imply a re-assessment of the current conventional wisdom regarding sectoral gaps, discuss how to reconcile them with existing cross-sectional estimates, and consider implications for the desirability of sectoral reallocation of labor. |
| JEL: | J43 O13 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23253&r=agr |
| By: | Katie Jenkins; Swenja Surminski; Jim Hall; Florence Crick |
| Abstract: | Flooding is recognised as one of the most common and costliest natural disasters in England. Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall is known as ‘surface water flooding’, considered to be the most likely cause of flood events and one of the greatest short-term climate risks for London. In this paper we present results from a novel Agent-Based Model designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options, different agents, and the role of flood insurance and the flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The model illustrates how investment in adaptation options could reduce London’s surface water flood risk, today and in the future. However, benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, it offers no additional benefits in terms of overall risk reduction, and will face increasing pressure due to rising surface water flood risk in the future. The modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for reviewing the proposed Flood Re scheme, as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes, and broader multi-sectoral partnerships, to incentivise flood risk management in the UK and internationally. |
| JEL: | G32 |
| Date: | 2016–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:70116&r=agr |