nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2016‒11‒27
24 papers chosen by



  1. Synopsis: Cities and agricultural transformation in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia By Vandercasteelen, Joachim; Tamru, Seneshaw; Minten, Bart; Swinnen, Johan
  2. Synopsis: How big are post-harvest losses? Evidence from teff By Minten, Bart; Engida, Ermias; Tamru, Seneshaw
  3. Synopsis: Row planting teff in Ethiopia: Impact on farm-level profitability and labor allocation By Vandercasteelen, Joachim; Dereje, Mekdim; Minten, Bart; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
  4. Food processing, transformation, and job creation: The case of Ethiopia’s enjera markets By Minten, Bart; Assefa, Thomas Woldu; Abebe, Girum; Engida, Ermias; Tamru, Seneshaw
  5. The rapid expansion of herbicide use in smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia: Patterns, drivers, and implications By Tamru, Seneshaw; Minten, Bart; Alemu, Dawit; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane
  6. Cash crops and food security: Evidence from Ethiopian smallholder coffee producers By Kuma, Tadesse; Dereje, Mekdim; Hirvonen, Kalle; Minten, Bart
  7. Synopsis: Agricultural prices during drought in Ethiopia By Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Yimer, Feiruz; Minten, Bart; Dorosh, Paul A.
  8. Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world By Ajay Gajanan Bhave; Declan Conway; Suraje Dessai; David A. Stainforth
  9. Climate change perception and system of rice intensification (SRI) impact on dispersion and downside risk: a moment approximation approach By Mintewab Bezabih; Remidius Ruhinduka; Mare Sarr
  10. Spatio-temporal statistical assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions from satellite data By Patrick Vetter; Wolfgang Schmid; Reimund Schwarze
  11. Bugs, tariffs and colonies: the political economy of the wine trade 1860-1970 By Giulia Meloni; Jo Swinnen
  12. Capital Allocation across Regions, Sectors and Firms: evidence from a commodity boom in Brazil By Paula Bustos; Gabriel Garber; Jacopo Ponticelli
  13. Are Commodity Price Booms an Opportunity to Diversify? Evidence from Resource-dependent Countries By Clement Anne
  14. Scared to be poor: Vulnerability and poverty in Great Britain at the beginning of the 20th century By Federica Di Battista
  15. Corruption, trade costs, and gains from tariff liberalization: evidence from Southern Africa By Sandra Sequeira
  16. Synopsis: Economy-wide impacts of the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) By Filipski, Mateusz; Taylor, J. Edward; Abegaz, Getachew Ahmed; Ferede, Tadele; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Diao, Xinshen
  17. Why Are Estimates of Agricultural Supply Response so Variable? By Francis X. Diebold; Russell L. Lamb
  18. Gone with the Wind; Estimating Hurricane and Climate Change Costs in the Caribbean By Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
  19. Ecological Fiscal Transfers in Europe: Evidence-based design options of a transnational scheme By Droste, N.; Ring, I.; Santos, R.; Kettunen, M.
  20. The EU cohesion policy in context: does a bottom-up approach work in all regions? By Riccardo Crescenzi; Mara Giua
  21. Trade Openness-Carbon Emissions Nexus: The Importance of Turning Points of Trade Openness for Country Panels By Shahbaz, Muhammad; Tavares, Samia; Ahmed, Khalid; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  22. Decentralized versus Statistical Targeting of Anti-Poverty Programs: Evidence from Burkina Faso By Schleicher, Michael; Souares, Aurélia; Pacere, Athanase Narangoro; Sauerborn, Rainer; Klonner, Stefan
  23. Adaptation to climate change By Sam Fankhauser
  24. Gone with the wind: valuing the visual impacts of wind turbines through house prices By Stephen Gibbons

  1. By: Vandercasteelen, Joachim; Tamru, Seneshaw; Minten, Bart; Swinnen, Johan
    Abstract: Due to the rapid growth of cities in Africa, many more farmers are now living in rural hinterlands in relatively close proximity to cities. However, empirical evidence on how urbanization affects these farmers is scarce. To fill this gap, this paper explores the relationship between proximity to a city and the production behavior of rural staple crop producers. In particular, we analyze data from teff farmers in major teff producing areas around Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. We find that farmers located closer to Addis Ababa face higher wages and land rental prices, but because they receive higher teff prices they have better incentives to intensify production. Moreover, we observe that modern input use, land and labor productivity, and profitability in teff production improve with urban proximity. This urban proximity has a strong and significant effect on these aspects of teff production, possibly related to the use of more formal factor markets, lower transaction costs in crop production and marketing, and better access to information. In contrast, we do not find a strong and positive relationship between rural population density increases and agricultural transformation – increased population density seems to lead to immiserizing effects in these settings. Our results show that urban proximity should be considered as an important determinant of the process of agricultural intensification and transformation in developing countries.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, intensification, urban areas, productivity, urban rural migration, agricultural transformation
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:essprn:58&r=agr
  2. By: Minten, Bart; Engida, Ermias; Tamru, Seneshaw
    Abstract: Based on a unique large-scale data set on teff production and marketing, Ethiopia’s most important cash crop, we study post-harvest losses in rural-urban value chains, specifically between producers and urban retailers in the capital, Addis Ababa. We analyze the structure of the value chain and rely on self-reported losses by different value chain agents (farmers, wholesale traders, and retailers). We estimate that post-harvest losses in the most prevalent pathway in the rural-urban value chain, amount to between 2.2 and 3.3 percent of total harvested quantities. The variation in this figure depends on the storage facilities used and on assumed losses during transport at the farm. These losses are significantly lower than is commonly assumed for staple foods, possibly because of the rather good storage characteristics of teff due to its low moisture content. These findings, nonetheless, point to the need to gather further solid evidence on post-harvest losses in staple foods in these settings to ensure appropriate policies and investments.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, teff, food storage, postharvest losses, value chains
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:essprn:60&r=agr
  3. By: Vandercasteelen, Joachim; Dereje, Mekdim; Minten, Bart; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
    Abstract: Improved technologies are increasingly being promoted to farmers in sub-Saharan-African countries to address low agricultural productivity in their staple crops. There is, however, a lack of evidence on how adoption affects farmers’ labor use and profitability at the farm level, as well as the importance gender roles play. This paper analyses the labor and profitability impact of the recently introduced row planting technology in teff production in Ethiopia. Based on agronomic evidence in experimental settings, the government of Ethiopia has focused extension efforts on promoting the widespread uptake of row planting to address low teff yields, replacing the traditional broadcasting method of planting teff. Using an innovative Randomized Controlled Trial set-up, we show that the implementation of row planting at the farm level significantly increases total labor use, but not teff yields, relative to broadcast planting, resulting in a substantial drop in labor productivity when adopting row planting. Moreover, the implementation of row planting has important consequences for inter- and intra-household labor allocation, with relatively more use of non-family labor. The adoption of row planting was further found not to be profitable for farmers in the first year of the promotion cam-paign, seemingly explaining the limited success in up-scaling the adoption of the technology by farmers in the second year of the program.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA,teff, line planting, productivity, yields, smallholders, labor, broadcast sowing, planting, gender, randomized controlled trial, Q12 Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q15 Land Ownership and Tenure, Land Reform, Land Use, Irrigation, Agriculture and Environment, Q16 Agricultural R&D, Agricultural Technology, Biofuels, Agricultural Extension Services
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:essprn:59&r=agr
  4. By: Minten, Bart; Assefa, Thomas Woldu; Abebe, Girum; Engida, Ermias; Tamru, Seneshaw
    Abstract: Given the importance of agriculture in developing economies, food processing industries often dominate the industrial sector when considering employment and value addition in these settings. For example, it is estimated that the food processing industry in Ethiopia employs 1 million people, around 2 percent of the economically active population. However, the way this food processing industry is changing and how it functions is little understood. Based on a unique survey, we study the case of markets in urban Ethiopia for commercial ready-to-eat enjera, the traditional staple pancake of the country. We find that commercial enjera markets are quickly growing, employing more than 100,000 people in urban Ethiopia. Moreover, enjera is now being prepared by mixing flour from locally produced teff with that of imported rice, thus absorbing an important part of the rapidly growing rice imports (almost 200 million USD in 2015) in the country, and leading to higher profits for those enterprises engaged in this type of mixing. Increasing numbers of enjera-making enterprises (EMEs) – which mostly employ women – are emerging. Further, we note upscaling by those enjera-making enterprises that supply the growing urban food service sector. Larger enjera-making companies have better quality, different procurement mechanisms and technologies, and higher value-added. These findings are important for the policy debates in Ethiopia on food systems transformation, employment and job creation, and international trade.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, food processing, teff, food technology, employment, labor, urban areas, retail activities, supply chains, industrial sector
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:esspwp:96&r=agr
  5. By: Tamru, Seneshaw; Minten, Bart; Alemu, Dawit; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane
    Abstract: We use qualitative and quantitative information from a number of datasets to study the adoption patterns and labor productivity impacts of herbicide use in Ethiopia. We find a four-fold increase in the value of herbicides imported into Ethiopia over the last decade, primarily by the private-sector. Adoption of herbicides by smallholders has grown rapidly over this period, with the application of herbicides on cereals doubling to more than a quarter of the area under cereals between 2004 and 2014. Relying on unique data from a large-scale survey of producers of teff, the most widely grown cereal in Ethiopia, we find significant positive labor productivity effects of herbicide use of between 9 and 18 percent. We show that the adoption of herbicides is strongly related to proximity to urban centers, levels of local rural wages, and access to markets. All these factors have changed significantly over the last decade in Ethiopia, explaining the rapid take-off in herbicide adoption. The significant increase in herbicide use in Ethiopia has important implications for rural labor markets, potential environmental and health considerations, and capacity development for the design and effective implementation of regulatory policies on herbicides.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, smallholders, productivity, farm inputs, herbicides, market access, labor market
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:esspwp:94&r=agr
  6. By: Kuma, Tadesse; Dereje, Mekdim; Hirvonen, Kalle; Minten, Bart
    Abstract: One of the key questions in food policy debates in the last decades has been the role of cash cropping for achieving food security in low income countries. We revisit this question in the context of smallholder coffee production in Ethiopia. Using unique data collected by the authors on about 1,600 coffee farmers in the country, we find that coffee income improves food security, even after controlling for total income and other factors and after addressing the endogeneity of coffee income. Further analysis suggests that the pathway for achieving this improved food security is linked to being better able to smooth consumption across agricultural seasons. In contrast with food crops, coffee sales take place almost throughout the whole year, providing farmers with cash income also during the lean season.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, agriculture, agricultural policies, food policies, seasonality, coffee, smallholders, food security, O12 Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, O13 Economic Development: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Energy, Environment, Other Primary Product, Q18 Agricultural Policy, Food Policy
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:esspwp:95&r=agr
  7. By: Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Yimer, Feiruz; Minten, Bart; Dorosh, Paul A.
    Abstract: We analyze the evolution of crop and livestock producer prices and wages of unskilled laborers in Ethiopia over the January 2014 to January 2016 period, during which time the country was massively impacted by El Niño triggered droughts. The analyses reveal no evidence of widespread adverse price effects of the drought in the labor and cereal markets. Real prices of the major cereals were lower at the beginning of 2016 compared to two years earlier, especially for maize, sorghum, and wheat, the crops that make up the major source of calories in the areas that were most hit by the drought. Conversely, prices of root crops and pulses increased. Given the large importance attached to cereal consumption, the overall real food consumption basket price declined compared to two years earlier, the decline being lower in drought-affected areas. Considering crop and livestock prices jointly reveals that livestock-cereal terms of trade declined in the worst affected areas, contrasting considerably with improvements seem in areas less affected by the drought. This contrast is mainly due to livestock prices declining faster than cereal prices in such areas. The fluctuating behavior of cereal prices since January 2015 strikingly contrasts with the situation during the major drought of 1997/98. During that period, cereal production declined by 25 percent compared to the year before, with significant simultaneous real price increases of between 15 and 45 percent.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, prices, droughts, livestock, crops, wages, labor, commodities, pulses, tubers, cereals, El Niño
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:essprn:56&r=agr
  8. By: Ajay Gajanan Bhave; Declan Conway; Suraje Dessai; David A. Stainforth
    Abstract: Climate change adaptation is unavoidable, particularly in developing countries where the adaptation deficit is often larger than in developed countries. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches are considered useful for supporting adaptation decision making, yet case study applications in developing countries are rare. This review paper examines the potential to expand the geographical and sectoral foci of RDM as part of the repertoire of approaches to support adaptation. We review adaptation decision problems hitherto relatively unexplored, for which RDM approaches may have value. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches, suggest potential sectors for application and comment on future directions. We identify that data requirements, lack of examples of RDM in actual decision-making, limited applicability for surprise events, and resource constraints are likely to constrain successful application of RDM approaches in developing countries. We discuss opportunities for RDM approaches to address decision problems associated with urban socio-environmental and water-energy-food nexus issues, forest resources management, disaster risk management and conservation management issues. We examine potential entry points for RDM approaches through Environmental Impact Assessments and Strategic Environmental Assessments, which are relatively well established in decision making processes in many developing countries. We conclude that despite some barriers, and with modification, RDM approaches show potential for wider application in developing country contexts.
    Keywords: Adaptation decision making; Uncertainty; Robust decision making approaches; Developing countries; Barriers; opportunities and entry points
    JEL: J50 G32
    Date: 2016–09–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:68318&r=agr
  9. By: Mintewab Bezabih; Remidius Ruhinduka; Mare Sarr
    Abstract: This article assesses the consequential risk impacts of the recent system of rice intensification (SRI) implemented in the Morogoro region of Tanzania, one of the largest Semi-Arid regions, using household and farm plot level data extended to incorporate farmers’ perceptions of climate change. The analysis implements a moment approximation approach that accounts for the impacts of the technology on the first three moments of rice yields and total household income. Using a endogenous switching regressions model, we find that perception of climate change is a key driver for SRI adoption and impacts primarily the moments of income. Furthermore, the average effect of SRI on dispersion and skewness are positive. In particular, the large increase in income variability is not compensated by the increase in skewness (i.e., a reduction in downside risk), which may explain why SRI adoption rate remains low in Tanzania. The study also highlights the importance of climate perceptions and moisture-conserving technology in risk management in Semi-Arid areas. The theme of the study also falls within the objectives of the PRISE project (Pathways to Resilience in Semi-Arid Economies) as it brings together institutional intervention (in the form of SRI provision), land productivity and vulnerability (in the form of farmers’ perceptions of climatic factors).
    Date: 2016–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp256&r=agr
  10. By: Patrick Vetter (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, European University Viadrina, Frankfurt (Oder)); Wolfgang Schmid (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, European University Viadrina, Frankfurt (Oder)); Reimund Schwarze (Europa University Viadrina and Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ))
    Abstract: The analysis of sources and sinks of CO2 is a dominant topic in diverse research fields and in political debates these days. The threat of climate change fosters the research efforts in the natural sciences in order to quantify the carbon sequestration potential of the terrestrial ecosystem and CO2 mitigation negotiations strengthens the need for a transparent, consistent and verifiable Moni- toring, Verification and Reporting infrastructure. This paper provides a spatio-temporal statistical modeling framework, which allows for a quantification of the Net Ecosystem Production and of anthropogenic sources, based on satellite data for surface CO2 concentrations and source and sink connected covariates. Using spatial and temporal latent random effects, that act as space-time varying coefficients, the complex dependence structure can be modeled adequately. Finally, spatio-temporal smoothed estimates for the sources and sinks can be used to provide dynamic maps on 0.5 × 0.5 grid for the Eurasien area in intervals of 16 days between September 2009 and August 2012. Finally, the self-reported CO2 emissions within the UNFCCC can be compared with the model results.
    Keywords: Anthropogenic CO2 emissions, Net Ecosystem Production, Linear mixed effects, Spatio- temporal model
    Date: 2016–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euv:dpaper:24&r=agr
  11. By: Giulia Meloni; Jo Swinnen
    Abstract: The 1860–1970 period is a particularly interesting period to study wine trade because of dramatic changes in the wine markets and trade over the course of a century. The dramatic changes in trade flows were caused by both “nature” and “men”. Mediterranean wine trade represented around 90% of global wine trade and France was the world’s leading exporter. The arrival of Phylloxera devastated French vineyards and stimulated Spanish and Italian wine exports. When French wine production recovered, French winegrowers pressured their government to intervene, resulting in high tariffs on Spanish and Italian wines and Greek raisins. The protectionist trade regime contributed to the bankruptcy of Greece and to the substitution of wine trade from Spain and Italy to France’s North African colonies. When Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia became independent, France imposed high wine tariffs, effectively killing their wine exports. The decline of the wine industry in North Africa coincided with the trade and policy integration of the South European wine exporters in the EEC—the predecessor of the EU.
    Date: 2016–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:556191&r=agr
  12. By: Paula Bustos; Gabriel Garber; Jacopo Ponticelli
    Abstract: We study the allocation of capital across regions, sectors and firms. In particular, we assess to what extent growth in agricultural productivity can lead to an increase in the supply of credit in industry and services. For this purpose, we identify an exogenous increase in agricultural profits due to the adoption of genetically engineered soy in Brazil. We find that regions with larger increases in agricultural productivity experienced larger increases in local bank deposits. However, there was no increase in local bank lending. Instead, capital was reallocated towards other regions through bank branch networks. This increase in credit supply affected firms' credit access through the extensive and intensive margin. First, regions with more bank branches receiving funds from soy areas experienced an increase in credit market participation of small and medium sized firms. In addition, banks experiencing faster deposit growth in soy areas increased their lending to firms with whom they had preexisting relationships. In turn, these firms grew faster in terms of employment and wage bill. Our estimates imply that the elasticity of firm growth to credit is largest in the manufacturing sector. These findings suggest that agricultural productivity growth can lead to structural transformation through a financial channel.
    Date: 2016–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:444&r=agr
  13. By: Clement Anne (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The recent commodity price drop has renewed attention on the importance to diversify resource-dependent economies in particular to limit their exposure to commodity price volatility. While commodity price booms can be an opportunity to diversify the economy if managed properly, it remains an empirical question whether this has effectively been the case. Using a panel of 78 resource-dependent countries over 1970-2012 we tackle this question thanks to cointegration analysis, dynamic macro-panel estimators, as well as analyses of diversification outcomes during selected commodity price boom and bust episodes. While our econometric results evidence a stable and significant impact of commodity price booms on export concentration through a more concentrated mix of already exported products, this relationship includes both an increase in export concentration during commodity price booms and an increase in export diversification during commodity price drops. We also evidence a higher increase in export concentration during the 2000s commodity price booms than the 1970s, which explains the urging current need of most resource-dependent countries to diversify.
    Keywords: cerdi
    Date: 2016–10–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01381143&r=agr
  14. By: Federica Di Battista
    Abstract: This work explores the determinants of poverty in Edwardian Britain. We use a new household budget sample collected between 1900 and 1914 to understand what role vulnerability played in determining poverty and undernutrition. First, using a probit model we find that due to perceived risk on one hand, and to social norms on the other, families purchased insurance schemes as a strategy to cope with uncertainty. Second, using recursive mixed process estimation, we find that the decision to insure caused a reallocation from food to precautionary expenditures, which led to a significant reduction in calorie availability.
    Keywords: 1900-1914, Great Britain, insurance, poverty, vulnerability
    JEL: C14 I31 I32 N33
    Date: 2016–07–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbu:wpaper:5&r=agr
  15. By: Sandra Sequeira
    Abstract: This paper exploits quasi-experimental variation in tariffs in southern Africa to estimate trade elasticities. Traded quantities respond only weakly to a 30 percent reduction in the average nominal tariff rate. Trade flow data combined with primary data on firm behavior and bribe payments suggest that corruption is a potential explanation for the observed low elasticities. In contexts of pervasive corruption, even small bribes can significantly reduce tariffs, making tariff liberalization schemes less likely to affect the extensive and the intensive margins of firms' import behavior. The tariff liberalization scheme is, however, still associated with improved incentives to accurately report quantities of imported goods, and with a significant reduction in bribe transfers from importers to public officials.
    JEL: D73 F13 H83 O17 O19 O24
    Date: 2016–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:68286&r=agr
  16. By: Filipski, Mateusz; Taylor, J. Edward; Abegaz, Getachew Ahmed; Ferede, Tadele; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Diao, Xinshen
    Abstract: The findings from this study reveal that, on an economy-wide ba-sis, the benefits of PSNP significantly exceed the cost of PSNP transfers. New income created by PSNP benefits households that do not receive cash transfers; these non-beneficiaries benefit as markets transmit PSNP impacts to them through local and national markets. Documenting the total benefits, including benefits to non-beneficiaries, is critical to garner support for PSNP. Our analysis shows that PSNP achieves both social and productive goals by raising income in beneficiary households while stimulating local and national production. This should be good news to both finance and social welfare ministries.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, food security, famine, hunger, econometrics, spillover effects, social protection, social safety nets, economy wide effects
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:essprn:57&r=agr
  17. By: Francis X. Diebold; Russell L. Lamb
    Abstract: Estimates of the response of agricultural supply to movements in expected price display curiously large variation across crops, regions, and time periods. We argue that this anomoly may be traced, at least in part, to the statistical properties of the commonly-used econometric estimator, which has infinite moments of all orders and may have a bimodal distribution. We propose an alternative minimum- expected-loss estimator, establish its improved sampling properties, and argue for its usefulness in the empirical analysis of agricultural supply response.
    Keywords: Agricultural supply response ; Bayesian estimation ; MELO estimation
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1996-08&r=agr
  18. By: Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
    Abstract: This paper studies the economic costs of hurricanes in the Caribbean by constructing a novel dataset that combines a detailed record of tropical cyclones’ characteristics with reported damages. I estimate the relation between hurricane wind speeds and damages in the Caribbean; finding that the elasticity of damages to GDP ratio with respect to maximum wind speeds is three in the case of landfalls. The data show that hurricane damages are considerably underreported, particularly in the 1950s and 1960s, with average damages potentially being three times as large as the reported average of 1.6 percent of GDP per year. I document and show that hurricanes that do not make landfall also have considerable negative impacts on the Caribbean economies. Finally, I estimate that the average annual hurricane damages in the Caribbean will increase between 22 and 77 percent by the year 2100, in a global warming scenario of high CO2 concentrations and high global temperatures.
    Keywords: Climatic changes;Caribbean;Pacific Island Countries;Greenhouse gas emissions;Climate policy;Parameter estimation;Econometric models;Hurricane, tropical cyclone, climate change, climate impact, Caribbean.
    Date: 2016–10–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/199&r=agr
  19. By: Droste, N.; Ring, I.; Santos, R.; Kettunen, M.
    Abstract: Ecological Fiscal Transfers (EFT) have recently gained attention as a promising instrument to provide incentives for nature conservation addressing public authorities. In parallel, both the EU and different European countries are exploring new mechanisms to mobilise funding to support biodiversity conservation. So far, existing EFT mechanisms in Europe have been implemented at the national level in Portugal and, to some extent, in France while in Brazil EFT schemes exist between the state and local level. In this paper we develop a proposal for an EFT design within the supranational context of the EU and assess its potential effects with evidence-based estimates. To provide such a knowledge base for a potential supranational EU-EFT implementation, we i) provide a theoretical underpinning, and an analytical synthesis of the current experiences both with the uptake of EFT and the implementation of EU's nature conservation legislation (i.e. the Habitats and Bird Directives), ii) propose a model for an EFT implementation within the existing EU funding framework for N2k financing which is built upon both quantitative and qualitative conservation indicators, iii) compute fiscal effects of our suggested model and analyse how the resulting payments would be (spatially) distributed among European regions, and iv) discuss the model outcomes in terms of ecological effectiveness, distributive effects, and cost-efficiency. Thereby we aim at stimulating a debate about how to better integrate ecological public functions within multi-level and supra-national governance structures.
    Keywords: Ecological Fiscal Transfers,European Union,Natura 2000 network,policy advice,spatial econometrics
    JEL: C31 H77 H87 P48 R12 Q57
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ufzdps:102016&r=agr
  20. By: Riccardo Crescenzi; Mara Giua
    Abstract: This paper looks at the European Union as a laboratory to study how ‘spatially-targeted’ policies (i.e. the EU Cohesion and Rural Development Policies) interact with sectoral ‘spatially-blind’ policies (i.e. the Common Agricultural Policy - CAP), jointly shaping regional growth dynamics. The analysis of the drivers of regional growth shows that the EU Regional Policy has a positive influence on economic growth in all regions. However, its impact is stronger in the most socio-economically advanced areas and is maximised when its expenditure is complemented by Rural Development and CAP funds. The top-down funding of the CAP seems to be able to concentrate some benefits in the most deprived areas of the Union. This suggests that bottom-up policies are not always the best approach to territorial cohesion. Top-down policies may – in some cases – be effective in order to channel resources to the most socio-economically deprived areas. Territorial cohesion requires the flexible integration and coordination of both bottom-up and top-down approaches.
    Keywords: regional policy; European Union; regional growth; bottom-up policies; rural development; common agricultural policy
    JEL: O18 R11 R58
    Date: 2016–10–26
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:66946&r=agr
  21. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; Tavares, Samia; Ahmed, Khalid; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between trade openness and CO2 emissions by incorporating economic growth as an additional and potential determinant of this relationship for three groups of 105 high, middle and low income countries. We apply the Pedroni (1999) and Westerlund (2007) panel cointegration tests and find that the three variables are cointegrated in the long run. Trade openness impedes environmental quality for the global, high income, middle and low income panels but the impact varies in these diverse groups of countries. The panel VECM causality results highlights a feedback effect between trade openness and carbon emissions at the global level and the middle income countries but trade openness Granger causes CO2 emissions for the high income and low income countries. Policy implications are also provided.
    Keywords: Trade Openness, CO2 Emissions, Causality
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2016–11–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75133&r=agr
  22. By: Schleicher, Michael; Souares, Aurélia; Pacere, Athanase Narangoro; Sauerborn, Rainer; Klonner, Stefan
    Abstract: Targeting of national anti-poverty programs in low-income countries commonly relies on statistical procedures involving household-level survey data, while small-scale poverty-alleviation programs often employ so-called community-based targeting, where village communities themselves identify program beneficiaries. Combining data from community-based targeting exercises in north-western Burkina Faso with household-level survey data, we compare the targeting accuracy of community-based targeting with several statistical procedures when the program's purpose is to target consumption-poor households. We find that the community-based assessment targets a similar share of consumption-poor households as the best-performing statistical procedures which are not calibrated with household-level consumption data. Community-based targeting performs relatively better in urban than in rural areas and is not at a disadvantage in larger or more heterogeneous communities. In a cost-benefit analysis we find that in our sub-Saharan African context community-based targeting is far more cost-effective than any statistical procedure for common amounts of welfare program benefits.
    Keywords: Targeting; Community-based Targeting; Welfare Programs; Poverty; Community Wealth Rankings; Proxy-means Testing
    Date: 2016–11–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awi:wpaper:0623&r=agr
  23. By: Sam Fankhauser
    Abstract: This article reviews the economic and analytical challenges of adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate risks that can no longer be avoided is an important aspect of the global response to climate change. Humans have always adapted to changing climatic conditions, and there is growing, if still patchy, evidence of widespread adaptation behaviour. However, adaptation is not “autonomous†, as sometimes claimed. It requires knowledge, planning, coordination and foresight. There are important adaptation gaps, behavioural barriers and market failures, which hold back effective adaptation and require policy intervention. We identify the most urgent adaptation priorities, areas where delay might lock in future vulnerability, and outline the decision-making challenges of adapting to an unknown future climate. We also highlight the strong inter-linkages between adaptation and economic development, pointing out that decisions on industrial strategy, urban planning and infrastructure investment all have strong bearing on future vulnerability to climate change. We review the implications of these links for adaptation finance, and what the literature tells us about the balance between adaptation and mitigation.
    Date: 2016–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp255&r=agr
  24. By: Stephen Gibbons
    Abstract: This study provides quantitative evidence on the local benefits and costs of wind farm developments in England and Wales, focussing on their visual environmental impacts. In the tradition of studies in environmental, public and urban economics, housing sales prices are used to reveal local preferences for views of wind farm developments. Estimation is based on quasi-experimental research designs that compare price changes occurring in places where wind farms become visible, with price changes in appropriate comparison groups. These groups include places close to wind farms that became visible in the past, or where they will become operational in the future and places close to wind farms sites but where the turbines are hidden by the terrain. All these comparisons suggest that wind farm visibility reduces local house prices, and the implied visual environmental costs are substantial.
    Keywords: housing prices; environment; wind farms; infrastructure; energy
    JEL: Q4 Q51 R3
    Date: 2015–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:62880&r=agr

General information on the NEP project can be found at https://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.