nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2016‒10‒16
35 papers chosen by

  1. Is GM Soybean Cultivation in Argentina Sustainable? By Johanna Choumert; Pascale Phelinas
  2. Economic and environmental impacts of CAP greening: CAPRI simulation results By Alexander Gocht; Pavel Ciaian; Maria Bielza; Jean-Michel Terres; Norbert Röder; Mihaly Himics; Guna Salputra
  3. Improved Agricultural Technology Adoption in Zambia: Are Women Farmers Being Left Behind? By Namonje-Kapembwa, Thelma; Thelma, Antony
  4. Linkage between Rural Voters and Politicians: Effects on Rice Policies in the Philippines and Thailand By Arnold H. Fang
  5. Gender Differences in the Adoption of Cereal Intensification Strategy Sets in Burkina Faso By Theriault, Veronique; Smale, Melinda; Haider, Hamza
  6. Designing Tax Policy to Promote Agricultural Cooperatives and Environmental Protection in China By CYRIL BUTCHER
  7. Nutrition and Food Security: The Role of Forest Resources in Eastern Zambia By Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda; Simoloka, Asunta
  9. Smallholder Cropping and Input Responses to Changes in Expected Prices and Market Access in Central and Northern Mozambique, 2008‐2011 By Mather, David; Cunguara, Benedito; Tschirley, David
  10. Subsidy Policies and Insurance Demand By Jing Cai; Alain de Janvry; Elisabeth Sadoulet
  11. Impact Evaluation in a Landscape: Protected Natural Forests, Anthropized Forested Lands and Deforestation Leakages in Madagascar's Rainforests By Sebastien Desbureaux; Eric Nazindigouba Kere; Pascale Combes Motel
  12. Eco-certified contract choice among coffee farmers in Brazil By Lemeilleur, S.; Subervie, J.; Presoto, A.E.; de Castro Souza, R.; Macchione Saes, M.S.
  13. Can Input Subsidy Programs Promote Climate Smart Agriculture in Africa? By Jayne, T.S.; Sitko, Nicholas J.; Mason, Nicole M.; Skole, David
  14. State of rural labour markets in India By Saha, Partha; Verick, Sher
  15. The land use change time-accounting failure By Marion Dupoux
  16. Analysis of the agricultural and rural development policies of the Western Balkan countries By Sabahudin Bajramovic; Natalija Bogdanov; Jakub Butkovic; Dragi Dimitrovski; Emil ERJAVEC; Grigor Gjeci; Ekrem Gjokaj; Bekim Hoxha; Ivana Janeska Stomenkovska; Darko Konjevic; Ana Kotevska; Aleksandra Martinovic; Iliriana Miftari; Marina Nacka; Dragana Ognjenovic; Miroslav Rednak; Emelj Tuna; Tina VOLK; Edvin Zhllima
  17. Commodities, financialization, and heterogeneous agents By Branger, Nicole; Grüning, Patrick; Schlag, Christian
  18. Climate and Health Co-Benefits in Low-Income Countries: A Case Study of Carbon Financed Water Filters in Kenya and a Call for Independent Monitoring (Journal Article) By Amy J. Pickering; Benjamin F. Arnold; Holly N. Dentz; John M. Colford Jr.; Clair Null
  19. The profitability of inorganic fertilizer use in smallholder maize production in Tanzania: Implications for alternative strategies to improve smallholder maize productivity. By Mather, David; Minde, Isaac; Waized, Betty; Ndyetabul, Daniel; Temu, Anna
  20. Analyzing Trends in Herbicide Use in Sub-Saharan Africa By Grabowski, Philip; Jayne, Thom
  21. Sri Lankan households a decade after the Indian Ocean tsunami By De Alwis, Diana; Noy, Ilan
  22. Are Commodity Price Booms an Opportunity to Diversify? Evidence from Resource-dependent Countries By Clement ANNE
  23. Implications of Asia’s Changing Rice Economy for the Development of Rice Value Chains in West Africa By Adjao, Ramziath T.; Staatz, John M.
  24. An ‘equal effort’ approach to assessing the North–South climate finance gap By Alex Bowen; Emanuele Campiglio; Sara Herreras Martinez
  25. HOW NETWORKS MODERATE RETURN ON SALES IN A LOGISTICS ENTERPRISE - CASE STUDY OF UPS By Sylwia Šęgowik-Świącik; Michał Dziadkiewicz; Anna Wiśniewska-Sałek; Dagmara Bubel
  26. Agricultural Input Subsidy Programs in Africa: An Assessment of Recent Evidence By Jayne, T.S.; Mason, Nicole M.; Burke, William J.; Ariga, Joshua
  27. The effectiveness of offering food samples to increase purchase involvement in supermarket settings By Dario Dunković
  28. Modelling New Zealand milk: From the farm to the factory By Welsh, Melissa; Marshall, Sarah; Noy, Ilan
  29. Synopsis: 2016 Global hunger index: Getting to zero hunger By von Grebmer, Klaus; Bernstein, Jill; Nabarro, David; Prasai, Nilam; Amin, Shazia; Yohannes, Yisehac; Sonntag, Andrea; Patterson, Fraser
  30. The Effect of a $2.00 Per Pack Increase in the Tobacco Excise Tax on Smoking and Healthcare Expenditures: 2017-2020 By Max, Wendy PhD; Sung, Hai-Yen PhD; Lightwood, James PhD
  31. Foods, fuels or finances: Which prices matter for biofuels? By Ondrej Filip; Karel Janda; Ladislav Kristoufek; David Zilberman
  32. Global warming as an asymmetric public bad By Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet; Céline Guivarch
  33. Global supply chains in the food industry : insights from the Asia- Pacific region By Frenkel, Stephen.; Mamic, Ivanka.; Greene, Laura.
  34. A $2.00 per pack increase in the tobacco excise tax will reduce smoking, save billions in healthcare expenditures, and create thousands of California jobs By Max, Wendy PhD; Sung, Hai-Yen PhD; Lightwood, James PhD
  35. Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2016) Road from Paris By Alban Kitous; Kimon Keramidas; Toon Vandyck; Bert Saveyn

  1. By: Johanna Choumert (EDI - Economic Development Initiatives - Economic Development Initiatives [EDI]); Pascale Phelinas (CERDI [CERDI] - CERDI - CNRS [CNRS])
    Abstract: This paper explores the long term sustainability of Argentina’s specialization in genetically modified soybean cultivation. It is conceived as an evidence-based assessment of the most relevant economic, social, and environmental, implications of the “soybeanization” of Argentinian agriculture. We combine 2 sources of primary and secondary quantitative data: the National Agricultural Census, and farm level data from a field survey carried out in 2 provinces of the Argentinian Pampas. Our results suggest a major conflict between the success of the “soybeanization” of Argentinian agriculture measured in terms of production and profit records, and the social, economic, and environmental sustainability of this new model of production. GM soybean package adoption has increased farm productivity, and has reduced the costs per unit produced. The resulting dramatic increase in profits constituted a strong incentive to extend the scale of production. The development of companies comprising actors from both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, constituted a good way to extend the scale of production. But this technological innovation in agriculture has been the source of numerous criticisms. It is widely held among Argentinian researchers, in particular, that soybean expansion has increased land inequality and displaced labor. However overall we find a mixed empirical picture of changing land distribution patterns and labor displacement resulting from the soybean expansion. The environmental implications of agricultural biotechnology are alarming, and the long-term sustainability of GM crops can seriously be questioned. In a context where GM soybean production has become one of the strategic components of Argentina’s economy, as well as in the country’s international positioning, our results suggest that it is highly unlikely that the government will implement policies against this precious crop and its by-products. However, promoting sustainable agricultural growth has become not only desirable, but necessary.
    Keywords: Sustainability, GM soybean,Latin America, Argentina, Agribusiness
    Date: 2016–08–25
  2. By: Alexander Gocht (Institute of Farm Economics, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute); Pavel Ciaian (European Commission – JRC); Maria Bielza (European Commission – JRC); Jean-Michel Terres (European Commission – JRC); Norbert Röder (Institute of Farm Economics, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute); Mihaly Himics (European Commission – JRC); Guna Salputra (European Commission – JRC)
    Abstract: In this report we analyse the economic and environmental impacts of CAP greening introduced by the 2013 CAP reform. We use the CAPRI farm-type layer, an extension of CAPRI by farm group module capturing farm heterogeneity across the EU. Its main advantage in the context of our analysis is that it allows the current implementation of the CAP greening measures to be depicted in high detail, while also capturing the environmental effects and the market feedback of the simulated policy changes. The simulated results reveal that the economic impacts (land use, production, price and income changes) of CAP greening are rather small, although some farm types, sectors (fallow land and pulses) or Member States may be affected more significantly. Simulation results show that the CAP greening will lead to a simultaneous small increase in prices and a small decrease in production. The latter impact is due to the greening obligations that require farms to take out of production a small share of land and to the slight reduction in farm productivity driven by the land reallocation effects of greening measures. Farm income slightly increases because the price effects offset the production decline. The results indicate that EFA and grassland measures tend to induce slightly higher economic effects relative to the crop diversification measure, nevertheless some variation across crops and economic indicators is observed. Similarly to economic effects, the environmental impacts of CAP greening are small, although some regions may see greater effects than others. In general, effects at EU level are positive on a per hectare basis, but the increase in UAA can reverse the sign for total impacts. Overall, simulated GHG and ammonia emissions decrease in the EU, while the total N surplus, soil erosion and biodiversity-friendly farming practices indicator slightly increase due to the CAP greening. The crop diversification measure tends to have the lowest environmental impacts, while the grassland measure has mixed (both positive and negative) effects on the reported environmental indicators. The EFA measures have positive impacts on most environmental indicators, except for soil erosion.
    Keywords: CAP reform, CAP greening, crop diversification, maintenance of permanent grassland, ecological focus area, EU, economic and environmental impacts, CAPRI, farm types, farm model
    JEL: Q11 Q12 Q18 Q51
    Date: 2016–10
  3. By: Namonje-Kapembwa, Thelma; Thelma, Antony
    Abstract: The use of modern seed varieties and other improved technologies is essential for farmers to significantly increase their crop harvest and improve their livelihoods. All over Sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture productivity growth has remained very low over many decades irrespective of gender of the farmer. However, studies have shown that women farmers fare worse than the male counterparts in terms of adoption of improved technology and productivity. This gender gap in technology adoption curtails agricultural development because women in developing countries such as Zambia play a significant role in agriculture and food production.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development,
    Date: 2016–03
  4. By: Arnold H. Fang
    Abstract: This article explains how linkages between politicians and rural voters affected the design of agricultural policies, using rice in two countries as examples. In the Philippines, colonial history bolstered an oligarchy of landed elite politicians, whose power was restored after the dictatorship of Marcos ended in 1986. Their practice of patronage brought corruption that led to dwindling rice productivity and increasing import dependence while displacing the political necessity to offer price support to farmers. In Thailand, sociopolitical development was more centralized, with new electoral rules introduced in 1997 to weaken locally confined patronage arrangements. Mass parties competing on a policy platform were favoured instead, resulting in increasing, but eventually, excessive subsidies for rice farmers. Although voter–politician linkages resulted in different rice policies in the two countries, recent instability in the world rice market showed that strategies with greater sustainability considerations are needed in addressing domestic income disparities and global food insecurity.
    Keywords: food security, political institutions, patronage, Thailand, Philippines
    Date: 2016–10–11
  5. By: Theriault, Veronique; Smale, Melinda; Haider, Hamza
    Abstract: In the West African Sahel, current issues of land fragmentation resulting from high rates of population growth and climate change exacerbate conditions of chronic food insecurity. In this context, agricultural intensification is necessary in order to increase food supply and better understanding gender differences in the adoption of intensification strategies is crucial for designing effective policies to enhance farm productivity sustainably.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, International Development,
    Date: 2016–04
    Abstract: The Chinese government has among its critical policies two clear policy imperatives – 1. to protect and improve its natural environment and 2. to encourage membership of agricultural cooperatives and ensure their development. On one hand, there can be a tension between these two objectives, as an increase in agricultural cooperatives could lead to greater environmental degradation through more damaging farming methods such as greater mechanisation and increased use of chemical fertilisers. On the other hand, there are potential synergies between the two goals as well-operated cooperatives can bring environmental benefits through such improvements as efficiencies of scale, more sophisticated farming practices and greater education on soil and water conservation. This paper examines, with a primary focus on tax policy, the Chinese government’s role in setting where the balance between these two potential outcomes – tension or synergy - will ultimately fall. The paper describes the history of agricultural cooperatives in China and considers why the Chinese government would wish to encourage their development. It then, with a view to identifying what incentives the government might offer, considers what factors motivate farmers to join cooperatives. It considers the role of tax policies, drawing on case studies from three provinces at different stages of development for insights on the impact of local variations, and examines the recently introduced draft Environmental Tax Law and considers what part it could play in the role of agricultural cooperatives in environmental protection.
    Keywords: ChinaEnvironmentTax PolicyAgricultural cooperatives
    JEL: K34 K32
  7. By: Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda; Simoloka, Asunta
    Abstract: Forest foods can play a vital role in maintaining balance and variety in people’s diets by providing foods of different food groups and supplying diverse foods within a food group. A study in Eastern province found that not all food groups are supplied by the forests. Food groups provided by the forests in the area are non-starchy vegetables, non-starchy fruits and proteins. There is at least one forest food in each meal in addition to the wild fruits consumed as snacks.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development,
    Date: 2016–03
  8. By: Tomislav Herceg (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Iva Vuksanovic (Faculty of Economics Belgrade, University of Belgrade)
    Abstract: Agricultural sector in Croatia declines or stagnates from 1980’s. Croatian agriculture did not improve its production level despite high subsidies and EU accession. In this paper perennial agriculture is analysed in detail since it is a high yielding segment of agriculture in EU. A panel data set for all Croatian perennial agriculture legal entities in the period of 2008 – 2014 was used to build production function. Cross section data were sub-sectors of perennial agriculture. Contributions of capital and labour were obtained as well as total factor productivity. It is shown that common approximation of production elasticities with share in costs is entirely inadequate in this case, showing decreasing returns to scale. TFP in perennial agriculture remained constant in this period despite subsidies. Finally, a TFP model was built. Using a set of 301 variables only two remained significant: export and subsidies, but with almost inexistent effect, showing that exports and subsidies make almost no effect on perennial agriculture productivity in Croatia. It may be the consequence of inefficient distribution of subsidies.
    Keywords: Total factor productivity, Croatian agriculture, Cobb-Douglas production function, agricultural subsidies, export orientation, perennial agriculture, non-perennial agriculture
    JEL: D24 Q12
  9. By: Mather, David; Cunguara, Benedito; Tschirley, David
    Abstract: Recent analysis of domestic prices of key staple crops in several major retail markets in Mozambique finds that due to increased demand from both international and domestic sources, since 2008, the country’s consumers and producers of staple crops appear to have entered a new higher-price environment for domestic food staples. This situation creates both a challenge and an opportunity for Mozambique, which is commonly referred to as the food price dilemma. In short, the dilemma for the Government of Mozambique (GoM)policymakers is that urban consumers (and the majority of rural households who are net buyers of key staple foods like maize) prefer lower food prices (relative to other prices in the economy) as this improves their welfare.
    Keywords: International Development, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2015–12
  10. By: Jing Cai; Alain de Janvry; Elisabeth Sadoulet
    Abstract: Many new products presumed to be privately beneficial to the poor have a high price elasticity of demand and ultimately zero take-up rate at market price. This has led governments and donors to provide subsidies to increase take-up, with the concern of trying to limit their cost. In this study, we use data from a two-year field experiment in rural China to define the optimum subsidy scheme that can insure a given take-up for a new weather insurance for rice producers. We build a model that includes the forces that are known to be determinants of insurance demand, provide reduced form confirmation of their importance, validate the dynamic model with out-of-sample predictions, and use it to conduct policy simulations. Results show that the optimum current subsidy necessary to achieve a desired take-up rate depends on both past subsidy levels and past payout rates, implying that subsidy levels should vary locally year-to-year.
    JEL: D12 D83 G22 H20 O12 Q12
    Date: 2016–09
  11. By: Sebastien Desbureaux (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Eric Nazindigouba Kere (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pascale Combes Motel (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes deforestation leakages from natural rainforests to anthropized habitats following the creation of Protected Areas in Madagascar. A simple theoretical framework highlights that a conservation constraint does not necessarily create deforestation leakages on secondary forests. An original dataset is built combining fine scale vegetation cover images and spatialized census data over the period 2000 to 2012. Cover images allow us to distinguish a mosaic of landscapes. Multilevel panel regressions and matching techniques indicate a causal effect of Protected Areas on deforestation leakages. Though Protected Areas reduce deforestation in protected natural forests, forest clearing is mostly reported on other types of anthropized forests. Our results demonstrate the limitations of Porter-like mechanism in agricultural innovation. They also support the hypothesis of a conservation dilemma: protecting biodiversity may come at the expense of the welfare of locals who rely on local (provisioning) ecosystem services.
    Keywords: Land use patterns,Environmental policies,Agricultural innovation.
    Date: 2016–07–05
  12. By: Lemeilleur, S.; Subervie, J.; Presoto, A.E.; de Castro Souza, R.; Macchione Saes, M.S.
    Abstract: We survey Brazilian coffee farmers’ preferences for attributes of voluntary sustainability standards using a choice experiment. We collected original data from 250 coffee farmers who live in the state of Minas Gerais who were asked to choose from several hypothetical buying contracts for eco-certified coffee. Our results suggest that both cash and non-cash payments may motivate farmers to participate in sustainability standard certification schemes that require improved agricultural practices. Preferences for non-cash rewards such as long-term formal contracts or technical assistance, however, appear highly heterogeneous. Results more-over show that the minimum willingness-to-accept for the adoption of composting is twice as high as the average price premium for certified coffee in the current context, which may partly explain why most coffee farmers continue to be reluctant to enter the most stringent eco-certification schemes such as the organic standard. ....French Abstract: Dans cet article, nous étudions les préférences des producteurs de café brésiliens pour les attributs des standards volontaires de durabilité, par une méthode d’expérimentation des choix. Nous avons collecté des données originales auprès de 250 producteurs de café de l'État du Minas Gerais, invités à choisir parmi plusieurs contrats d'achat hypothétiques exigeant l'amélioration des pratiques agricoles. Nos résultats suggèrent que les paiements monétaires et non monétaires peuvent inciter les agriculteurs à participer à des standards de durabilité certifiés. Néanmoins, les préférences pour les récompenses non monétaires, tels que les contrats formels de long terme ou l’assistance technique, apparaissent très hétérogènes. De plus, les résultats montrent que la prime de consentement à adopter le compost comme moyen de fertilisation est deux fois plus élevé que la prime maximum actuelle pour le café certifié. Ceci peut expliquer en partie la raison pour laquelle la plupart des producteurs de café continuent d'être réticents à entrer dans des systèmes de certification exigeant comme le standard d’agriculture biologique.
    JEL: Q01 Q15 Q57
    Date: 2016
  13. By: Jayne, T.S.; Sitko, Nicholas J.; Mason, Nicole M.; Skole, David
    Abstract: Climate smart agriculture (CSA) has emerged as an approach to enhance the resilience of farming systems to the effects of climate change. CSA is defined by three principle objectives: 1) sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes; 2) adapting and building resilience to climate change; and 3) reducing and/or removing greenhouse gases emissions, where possible.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2016–07
  14. By: Saha, Partha; Verick, Sher
    Abstract: In India, while contribution of agriculture to GDP has been declining, agriculture still remains mainstay of the rural economy by employing almost half of the population. However, the gap between job seekers in rural areas and employment opportunities in agriculture has been widening and non-farm sector has become an increasingly important source of livelihood. This paper analyses rural diversification across States in rural India, factors responsible for non- agricultural employment, and identifies industries within rural non-farm sector which are generating employment opportunities. Further, paper also looks into role of agriculture in rural diversification. This study is based on Employment and Unemployment Survey (National sample Survey Organization) for the years 1999-2000 & 2011-12, and All India Debt & Investment Survey (National sample Survey Organization) for the years 2002-3 & 2012-13. The broad story that emerged from this analysis is that of a significant shift towards non-farm employment in rural areas, and this shift happened predominantly among economically weaker sections of the rural society. Access to land was an important determinant in this process of rural employment diversification.
    Keywords: rural employment, nonfarm employment, labour market, rural economy, agriculture, working conditions, regional level, India
    Date: 2016
  15. By: Marion Dupoux (University Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense, EconomiX)
    Abstract: Land use change (LUC) is the second human-induced source of greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper warns about the LUC time-accounting failure in internalizing GHG impacts in economic appraisal (within policies). This emerges from (i) relative carbon prices commonly following the Hotelling rule as if climate change were regarded as an exhaustible resource problem and (ii) a uniform annualization (i.e. constant flows over time) of LUC impacts supported by most energy policies. First, carbon prices time evolution should account for the climate change framework specificities (natural carbon absorption, uncertainty), which makes a departure from the Hotelling rule necessary. Second, there is a carbon dynamic after land conversion: GHG impact flows are strictly decreasing over time. With a theoretical framework, I show that the employment of the uniform annualization, within a benefit-cost analysis, enhances both the discounting overwhelming effect and the carbon price increase, whatever the type of impact (emissions or sequestrations). It results in skewed values of LUC-related projects as long as relative carbon prices deviate from the Hotelling rule. I apply this framework to global warming impacts of bioethanol in France and quantify this bias. In particular, carbon profitability payback periods under the uniform approach do not reflect the LUC effective carbon investment. This potentially modifies the conclusions regarding a project’s achievement of imposed environmental criteria.
    Keywords: benefit-cost analysis, land use change, relative carbon price, discounting, global warming
    JEL: D61 H43 Q15 Q48 Q54
    Date: 2016–09
  16. By: Sabahudin Bajramovic (University of Sarajevo); Natalija Bogdanov (University of Belgrade); Jakub Butkovic (Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relation of Bosnia and Herzegovina); Dragi Dimitrovski (Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food – Skopje); Emil ERJAVEC (University of Ljubljana); Grigor Gjeci (Albanian Ministry of Agriculture); Ekrem Gjokaj (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development, Kosovo); Bekim Hoxha (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development, Kosovo); Ivana Janeska Stomenkovska (Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food – Skopje); Darko Konjevic (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Directorate Rural Development, Podgorica, Montenegro); Ana Kotevska (Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food – Skopje); Aleksandra Martinovic (University of Donja Gorica); Iliriana Miftari (University of Pristine); Marina Nacka (Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food – Skopje); Dragana Ognjenovic (University of Sarajevo); Miroslav Rednak (Agriculture Institute of Slovenia); Emelj Tuna; Tina VOLK (Agriculture Institute of Slovenia); Edvin Zhllima (Agriculture University of Tirana)
    Abstract: This report was prepared by a team of academic experts from Western Balkan (WB) countries coordinated by the Regional Rural Development Standing Working Group (SWG) in South-East Europe. The study targets EU candidate and potential candidate countries from the Western Balkan region (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo*). The main objectives of the study is the monitoring and evaluation of agricultural policies in the period 2012-2014 and assessment of the related key EU integration issues of the region. The study also outlines policy recommendation relevant in the wider regional context of the agricultural sector development as well as with respect to the region's EU integration process. The study results reveal that no major shifts in production and farm structure took place in the region in the study period, however, some expansion of WB agricultural trade, which are mainly a result of stronger exports, are reported. All study countries have prepared and most have also adopted a new strategic framework for the future of agricultural policies with more elaborated focus on EU harmonisation process. However, there were not observed pronounced changes in the actual structure and the volume of budgetary transfers related to agricultural policies in the region in the study period 2013-2015. Compared with the support granted under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in EU, the total budgetary support in WBs is still relatively low. Direct payments linked to specific production sectors (coupled support) are the main type of agricultural support implemented in WB countries. The type of direct payments and supported sectors are under constant adjustment. However, the policy instruments' alignment of WB countries to CAP-like policy is limited. As a general rule, agricultural budgets are not development-oriented. The institutional limitations in the implementation of the IPARD pre-accession support, the lack of clear action plans for policy reforms and the absence of the evidence based policy approach to policy-making are a few areas constraining a better design and implementation of agricultural policies in WB and for which policy recommendations and future tasks are outlined in this study
    Keywords: Agricultural policy, Western Balkans, Rural development, EU integration, pre-accession support, Monitoring and evaluation
    JEL: Q17 Q18
    Date: 2016–07
  17. By: Branger, Nicole; Grüning, Patrick; Schlag, Christian
    Abstract: The term 'financialization' describes the phenomenon that commodity contracts are traded for purely financial reasons and not for motives rooted in the real economy. Recently, financialization has been made responsible for causing adverse welfare effects especially for low-income and low-wealth agents, who have to spend a large share of their income for commodity consumption and cannot participate in financial markets. In this paper we study the effect of financial speculation on commodity prices in a heterogeneous agent production economy with an agricultural and an industrial producer, a financial speculator, and a commodity consumer. While access to financial markets is always beneficial for the participating agents, since it allows them to reduce their consumption volatility, it has a decisive effect with respect to overall welfare effects who can trade with whom (but not so much what types of instruments can be traded).
    Keywords: Commodities,General Equilibrium,Heterogeneous Preferences,Financial Markets
    JEL: E23 G12 G13 Q11 I30
    Date: 2016
  18. By: Amy J. Pickering; Benjamin F. Arnold; Holly N. Dentz; John M. Colford Jr.; Clair Null
    Abstract: This article summarizes reasons for mandating independent monitoring of greenhouse gas emission reduction projects.
    Keywords: Climate, Low-Income Countries, Kenya, International
    JEL: F Z
  19. By: Mather, David; Minde, Isaac; Waized, Betty; Ndyetabul, Daniel; Temu, Anna
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2016–06
  20. By: Grabowski, Philip; Jayne, Thom
    Abstract: Chemical weed control has been researched in Africa since the 1960s but adoption has been low or non-existent for decades. Recent evidence suggests that herbicide use in some parts of Africa is reaching significant levels and may be on the rise more generally. Little is known about which farmers are using herbicides in Africa and what factors drive their use. This study aims to document trends in herbicide use and analyze the drivers of those trends in Sub-Saharan Africa.
    Keywords: Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2016–04
  21. By: De Alwis, Diana; Noy, Ilan
    Abstract: We estimate the causal effect of the Indian Ocean tsunami in Sri Lanka on household income and consumption eight years after the event, using a quasi-experimental method. A strong association between area-wide tsunami disaster shock and increases in household income and consumption in the long-term emerged from our empirical investigation. Deviating from the common observation on short-term impacts, these results are suggestive of an optimistic potential for some long-lasting potentially successful recovery scenarios. Still, Sri Lanka received a very large amount of external transfers post-tsunami, much larger than is typical for disaster events and one which may not be replicable in other cases. Our findings suggest a more nuanced picture with respect to household consumption impacts. We observe a reduction of food consumption and only find an increase in non-food consumption. The increase in non-food consumption is much smaller than the observed increase in income. We also find that households in high-income regions experienced much better recovery from the disaster.
    Keywords: Sri Lanka, Indian Ocean Tsunami, Household income, Household consumption,
    Date: 2016
  22. By: Clement ANNE
    Abstract: The recent commodity price drop has renewed attention on the importance to diversify resource-dependent economies in particular to limit their exposure to commodity price volatility. While commodity price booms can be an opportunity to diversify the economy if managed properly, it remains an empirical question whether this has effectively been the case. Using a panel of 78 resource-dependent countries over 1970-2012 we tackle this question thanks to cointegration analysis, dynamic macro-panel estimators, as well as analyses of diversification outcomes during selected commodity price boom and bust episodes. While our econometric results evidence a stable and significant impact of commodity price booms on export concentration through a more concentrated mix of already exported products, this relationship includes both an increase in export concentration during commodity price booms and an increase in export diversification during commodity price drops. We also evidence a higher increase in export concentration during the 2000s commodity price booms than the 1970s, which explains the urging current need of most resource-dependent countries to diversify.
    JEL: Q02 O14 O13 F14
    Date: 2016–10
  23. By: Adjao, Ramziath T.; Staatz, John M.
    Abstract: Rice is at the center of food policy debates in West Africa.1 Driven by its convenience in preparation and consumption and higher consumer incomes, per capita consumption grew from just under 15 kg/year in 1970 to 40 kg/year in 2011 while population tripled during the same period.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2016–04
  24. By: Alex Bowen; Emanuele Campiglio; Sara Herreras Martinez
    Abstract: This study employs a number of Integrated Assessment Models to determine what the optimal financial transfers between high-income and developing economies would be if climate mitigation effort, measured as mitigation costs as a share of gross domestic product, were to be divided equally across regions through a global carbon market. We find these to be larger than both current and planned international climate finance flows. Four out of six models imply that a North–South annual financial transfer of around US$400 billion is required by 2050, while the other two models imply larger sums, up to $2 trillion. However, the outlook for multi-country carbon markets is not encouraging at the moment. We thus review some potential sources of funds that might be used to fill the climate finance gap, including public aid, private investment, development banks, and special climate-related facilities. We find the shortcomings of public climate finance appear particularly hard to overcome, and argue that expanding private finance, either in the form of Foreign Direct Investment or through the issuance of ‘green bonds’, appears to be a more promising direction. Policy relevance Climate change is a profoundly asymmetric development issue, as countries at lower stages of development are likely to suffer disproportionate climate damages and mitigation costs. High-income countries have agreed to mobilise $100 billion a year by 2020 ‘to address the needs of developing countries’. However, scaling up climate finance has been slow and, more importantly, targets have not been chosen on the basis of a ‘scientific’ assessment. This article presents a novel, model-based analysis of the ‘equal effort’ inter-regional climate finance that could provide useful insights to policy makers in future negotiations. The gap identified by comparing models’ projections to current and planned financial flows is large but not prohibitive. In particular, private investment appears to be the most likely channel to fill the gap, although various public policies need to be implemented to improve the risk/return profile of low-carbon investment opportunities.
    Keywords: carbon market; climate finance; equitable development; integrated assessment models; North-South flows
    JEL: F30 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2015
  25. By: Sylwia Šęgowik-Świącik (Politechnika Częstochowska); Michał Dziadkiewicz (Politechnika Częstochowska); Anna Wiśniewska-Sałek (Politechnika Częstochowska); Dagmara Bubel (Politechnika Częstochowska)
    Abstract: The paper addresses the problem of the moderation role of networks in the area of return on sales, indicating its impact on effectiveness of the process of management in a logistics enterprise. The whole discussion presented in the paper was divided into two main parts. The first part of the paper presents planes of profitability of an enterprise operating in a network. The next, second part of the paper is a result of empirical studies providing the answer to the research question. The aim of the paper is to identify and assess the relationships between the moderation role of networks and return on sales in a logistics enterprise. In order to answer the research question, the results of empirical studies based on a case study were presented. The conclusions from the studies suggest that an enterprise cooperating in a network moderates return on sales of the different products and services provided by network participants. Through this paper we would like to contribute to discussion on the extent to which network enterprises should moderate return on sales in order to stay on saturated markets. The research methods applied to achieve the aim are literature studies, case study, trend analysis and analysis of return on sales. The issues of the moderation role of networks in the area of return on sales are important and topical due to their impact on effectiveness of management of network enterprises.
    Keywords: management, network enterprises, logistics
    JEL: M21
  26. By: Jayne, T.S.; Mason, Nicole M.; Burke, William J.; Ariga, Joshua
    Abstract: This study reviews the evidence regarding the recent wave of smart input subsidy programs in Africa and identifies components of a holistic and sustainable agricultural productivity growth strategy that could improve the contribution of input subsidy programs to African governments’ national development objectives.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development,
    Date: 2016–07
  27. By: Dario Dunković (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)
    Abstract: This study contributes to researching and strengthening the role of the concept of purchase decision involvement in the management decision processes. The results of the study provide information on how to boost sales innovation in supermarkets and which product categories to choose in order to encourage shopper involvement and improve customer loyalty. Products included in the survey are items usually found in the shopping basket of today’s consumers that have been assessed as important items of store promotions in several national retail markets in Europe. It is important to discuss how to accommodate the costs arising from new operations and how this would reflect on other operations and merchandise categories. The study examines consumer attitudes in the context of the Southeast European market. The paper suggests that offering food samples moderately affects the level of consumer purchase involvement. The results for all three categories of food included in the empirical study show that providing grocery store shoppers with an opportunity to taste food while they are shopping is an effective way to change their attitudes. The proposed hypotheses were confirmed.
    Keywords: consumer purchase involvement, food samples, store
    JEL: M30 C38
    Date: 2016–08–24
  28. By: Welsh, Melissa; Marshall, Sarah; Noy, Ilan
    Abstract: Dairy products have long been an important dietary component, particularly for young children. Because of this the dairy industry is especially sensitive to contamination scares, and dairy is of particular importance to the New Zealand economy. This paper develops a Markov chain model for the early stages of the dairy supply-chain. Using the case of a major New Zealand Dairy company, simulations are run under various product-testing scenarios. Results point to the importance of where and when testing and interventions take place. Being strict about removing potentially contaminated product early on in the supply chain can reduce total losses and improve overall production output.
    Keywords: Dairy, Testing, Contamination, Supply chain, Markov-chain,
    Date: 2016
  29. By: von Grebmer, Klaus; Bernstein, Jill; Nabarro, David; Prasai, Nilam; Amin, Shazia; Yohannes, Yisehac; Sonntag, Andrea; Patterson, Fraser
    Keywords: hunger, nutrition, malnutrition, famine, food security, nutrition security, agricultural policies, nutrition policies, food production, sustainability, wasting disease, obesity, farmer field schools, gender, women farmers, stunting, underweight, undernutrition, underhourishment, child mortality, sustainable development goals, zero hunger, transforming agriculture, compact2025, resilience
    Date: 2016
  30. By: Max, Wendy PhD; Sung, Hai-Yen PhD; Lightwood, James PhD
    Keywords: Medicine and Health Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2016–10–01
  31. By: Ondrej Filip; Karel Janda; Ladislav Kristoufek; David Zilberman
    Abstract: We examine co-movements between biofuels and a wide range of commodities and assets in the US, Europe, and Brazil. We analyze a unique dataset of 33 commodities and relevant assets (between 2003 and 2016) which is unprecedented in the biofuels literature. We combine the minimum spanning trees correlation filtration to detect the most important connections of the broad analyzed system with continuous wavelet analysis which allows for studying dynamic connections between biofuels and relevant commodities and assets and their frequency characteristics as well. We confirm that for the Brazilian and US ethanol, their respective feedstock commodities lead the prices of biofuels, and not vice versa. This dynamics remains qualitatively unchanged when controlling for the influence of crude oil prices. As opposed to the Brazilian and US ethanol, the European biodiesel exhibits only moderate ties to its production factors. We show that financial factors do not significantly interact with biofuel prices.
    Keywords: biofuels, prices, minimum spanning tree, wavelet coherence
    JEL: C22 C38 Q16 Q42
    Date: 2016–10
  32. By: Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED, Ecole des PontsParisTech); Céline Guivarch (CIRED)
    Abstract: We extend the canonical dynamic game of global warming to capture three stylized facts: (i) while most countries are expected to suffer damages, some might enjoy short-term benefits; (ii) countries’ exposure to impacts bears little relation to their mitigation capabilities; (iii) some adaptation technologies, such as air conditioning, may exacerbate warming. These sources of asymmetry add free driving to the classical free riding problem. This opens up possibilities for excessive mitigation in a non-cooperative regime, even though damages outweigh benefits. Moreover, it restricts the possibilities of Pareto improvements without transfers. Finally, it can provide a rationale for differentiating Pigouvian prices across countries.
    Keywords: Differential game, Global warming, Public goods, Mitigation, Adaptation
    JEL: C73 H41 Q54
    Date: 2016–09
  33. By: Frenkel, Stephen.; Mamic, Ivanka.; Greene, Laura.
    Abstract: Increasingly, local food markets supplied by small farmers are being replaced by global supply chains (GSCs) dominated by lead retailers, most of them based in developed countries. Workers employed by suppliers often work in low-paid, insecure, and only semi-skilled jobs. To stimulate improvements in participant firm productivity, thereby promoting decent work, it is important to understand the salient features and dynamics of food GSCs, including how these are governed. This research has focused on food GSCs, particularly with regard to the Asia-Pacific region, and has found these supply chains to be extended, heterogeneous, and sensitive to consumer safety concerns. While participation in GSCs offers the potential for social and economic upgrading, in practice there is little evidence of this occurring. Case studies of four lead retailers highlight a preoccupation with mitigating reputational risk arising from food quality failures and, to a lesser extent, risks arising from suppliers’ sub- standard labour and environmental practices. Risks are mitigated through lead retailer enforcement of process standards regarding food quality and private regulation of first-tier suppliers, often based on third-party certification and auditing for labour and environmental standards. The report concludes by considering the implications of these and related findings for the ILO Decent Work Agenda. The focus is on public interventions designed to facilitate improved standards, and participation by stakeholders in the design and regulation of such interventions.
    Keywords: value chains, production management, food industry, employment, workers rights, working conditions, Asia, Pacific, chaînes de valeur, gestion de la production, industrie alimentaire, emploi, droits des travailleurs, conditions de travail, Asie, Pacifique, cadenas de valor, administración de la producción, industria de la alimentación, empleo, derechos de los trabajadores, condiciones de trabajo, Asia, Pacífico
    Date: 2016
  34. By: Max, Wendy PhD; Sung, Hai-Yen PhD; Lightwood, James PhD
    Keywords: Medicine and Health Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2016–10–11
  35. By: Alban Kitous (European Commission – JRC); Kimon Keramidas (European Commission – JRC); Toon Vandyck (European Commission – JRC); Bert Saveyn (European Commission – JRC)
    Abstract: This report examines the effects on greenhouse gases emissions and energy markets of a Reference scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, of two scenarios where the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions have been included, and of a 2°C scenario in line with keeping global warming below the limits agreed in international negotiations. The report presents an updated version of the modelling work that supported by DG CLIMA in the UNFCCC negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement of the COP21 in December 2015. In the Reference scenario, emissions trigger global warming above 3°C. In the INDC scenarios, regions adopt domestic policies that result in global changes in emissions and energy use, and would result in the long term in a global warming around 3°C; the INDCs cover 28-44% of the cumulated emissions reductions necessary to remain below a 2°C warming. In the 2°C scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. Reduction of non-CO2 emissions (34% in 2030), energy efficiency (20%) and the deployment of renewable energies (20%) are the main options contributing in the mitigation effort. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments. GDP growth rates are marginally affected in most regions by global efforts to reduce emissions. Crucially, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. Delaying actions to stay below 2°C add large economic costs. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change.
    Keywords: Climate, mitigation, GHG emissions, energy, international negotiations, COP21, Road to Paris, IPCC, UNFCCC, modelling, GEM-E3, POLES
    JEL: C68 Q43
    Date: 2016–07

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.