nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2016‒09‒11
twenty papers chosen by

  1. Russian Agricultural Cooperatives: Efficiency, Perks of the the Internal Organization, Basic Problems By Nikulin, Alexander Michailovich; Trotsuk, Irina Vladimirovna; Kurakin, A. A.; Sobolev, A. V.
  2. The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Output in South Africa (1997-2012) By Ncube, Free; Cheteni, Priviledge; Ncube, Prince; Muzawazi, Strugle
  3. Diet Quality of Americans by SNAP Participation Status: Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2010 By Elizabeth Condon; Susan Drilea; Keri Jowers; Carolyn Lichtenstein; James Mabli; Emily Madden; Katherine Niland
  4. Quality Observability and the Structure of Agricultural Supply Chains By Tara Mitchell
  5. Diet Quality of American School Children by National School Lunch Program Participation Status: Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2005-2010 By Elizabeth Condon; Susan Drilea; Carolyn Lichtenstein; James Mabli; Emily Madden; Katherine Niland
  6. Optimal biodiversity erosion in multispecies fisheries By Luc DOYEN; Eric TROMEUR
  7. The relationship between animal welfare and economic performance at farm level: A quantitative study of Danish pig producers By Arne Henningsen; Tomasz Gerard Czekaj; Björn Forkman; Mogens Lund; Aske Schou Nielsen
  8. How does Supply Chain Distortion affect Food Inflation in India? By Bhattacharya, Rudrani
  9. Causes of the 2000s Food Price Surge: Insights from Structural VAR By Daniel Grabowski
  10. Women’s Opportunities and Challenges in Sub-Saharan African Job Markets By Christine Dieterich; Anni Huang; Alun H. Thomas
  11. Modeling farmers’ decisions on tea varieties in Vietnam: a multinomial logit analysis. By Phu Nguyen-Van; Cyrielle Poiraud; Nguyen To-The
  12. Economic and Mathematical Modeling of EAEC Agri-food Policy By Svetlov, Nikolai; Shishkina, Ekaterina
  13. Measuring Regional Ethnolinguistic Diversity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Surveys vs. GIS By Boris Gershman; Diego Rivera
  14. Growth in International Commodity Prices, the Terms of Trade, and GDP per capita: A Case Study of Vietnam By Markus Brueckner; Kien Trung Nguyen
  15. Vietnam; 2016 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Vietnam By International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
  16. How Much is the Presence of Timber Exchange Traded Fund Feasible in India? By Das, Rituparna
  17. Asymmetric Threshold Vertical Price Transmission in Wheat and Flour Markets in Dhaka (Bangladesh): Seemingly Unrelated Regression Analysis By Mohammad J. Alam; Raghbendra Jha
  18. Strategic Complements in International Environmental Agreements: a New Island of Stability By Leonhard Kähler; Klaus Eisenack
  19. Testing Supply-Side Climate Policies for the Global Steam Coal Market - Can They Curb Coal Consumption? By Roman Mendelevitch
  20. Cycles and Crises of Agricultural Development: Past and Present By Nikulin, Alexander Mikhailovich; Kuznetsov, Igor

  1. By: Nikulin, Alexander Michailovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Trotsuk, Irina Vladimirovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kurakin, A. A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sobolev, A. V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Currently there is no objective and reliable data on the number of Russian cooperatives, about what they do and what are the prospects of their development. According to the Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, "co-operation does not perform the tasks conferred on it... There is no objective reason to talk about the architecture and operating system. Cooperatives are scattered, fragmented, chaotic and often developing completely unchecked." Meanwhile, the food security of the country, especially against the backdrop of the current food embargo requires an integrated approach. Despite the fact that this problem will be resolved, primarily due to large-scale farms, the potential for agricultural cooperation in Russia is undervalued and is used not enough. In addition, co-operation, involving a multitude of rural households, can help overcome the traditional "disease" of the Russian village: poverty, unemployment, apathy, depopulation.
    Keywords: Russia, cooperatives, agriculture
    Date: 2016–06–07
  2. By: Ncube, Free; Cheteni, Priviledge; Ncube, Prince; Muzawazi, Strugle
    Abstract: South Africa has shown major interest in the climate change discourse since the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Climate change has moved from an issue of environmental concern to an issue of commercial significance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of climate change on agriculture output in South Africa. The impact of climate change on output is examined in this study using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The estimated econometric model regresses temperature, rainfall, labour and capital on GDP in the agricultural sector. The results suggest that there is a negative relationship between climate change and agricultural output in South Africa.
    Keywords: Impact, OLS, South Africa, Climate Change, Agricultural Output.
    JEL: Q1 Q5 Q54
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Elizabeth Condon; Susan Drilea; Keri Jowers; Carolyn Lichtenstein; James Mabli; Emily Madden; Katherine Niland
    Abstract: This report provides information on the quality of SNAP participants’ diets from multiple perspectives, including usual nutrient intakes and food consumption patterns.
    Keywords: Diet Quality, SNAP Participation Status, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
    JEL: I0 I1
  4. By: Tara Mitchell (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin)
    Abstract: This paper presents a model of a supply chain for a good involving two stages of production. Effort must be exerted at both stages if a high-quality good is to be produced. Effort is not observable and the quality of the good is not perfectly observable. The model predicts that there will be a range of values of the price difference between high-quality and low-quality goods for which production of high-quality goods will occur with vertical integration but will not occur if the tasks are carried out by separate agents. The range of price values for which this occurs will be decreasing as the level of observability of quality increases and will disappear as quality becomes perfectly observable. The paper also presents some case studies of supply chains for various products in a number of developing countries that have characteristics which are consistent with the predictions of the model.
    JEL: O13 Q13
    Date: 2016–09
  5. By: Elizabeth Condon; Susan Drilea; Carolyn Lichtenstein; James Mabli; Emily Madden; Katherine Niland
    Abstract: This study provides information on the quality of school children’s diets from multiple perspectives, including usual nutrient intakes and food consumption patterns.
    Keywords: Diet Quality , National School Lunch Program Participation Status, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, NSLP
    JEL: I0 I1
  6. By: Luc DOYEN; Eric TROMEUR
    Abstract: As marine ecosystems are under pressure worldwide, many scientists and stakeholders advocate the use of ecosystem-based approaches for fishery management. In particular, management policies are expected to account for the multispecies nature of fisheries. However, numerous fisheries management plans remain based on single-species concepts such as Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and Maximum Economic Yield (MEY), that respectively aim at maximizing catches and profits of single species or stocks. In this study, we assess the sustainability and profitability of multispecies MSY and MEY in a mixed fishery with technical interactions. First, we analytically show that multispecies MSY and MEY can induce overharvesting and extinction of species with low productivity and low monetary value. Second, we identify and discuss incentives on effort costs and landing prices, as well as technical regulations, that promote biodiversity conservation and more globally sustainability. Finally, a numerical example based on the coastal fishery in French Guiana illustrates the analytical findings.
    Keywords: Multispecies fishery, ecosystem-based fisheries management, maximum sustainable yield, maximum economic yield, overexploitation, technical interaction
    JEL: Q22
    Date: 2016
  7. By: Arne Henningsen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Tomasz Gerard Czekaj (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Björn Forkman (Department of Large Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen); Mogens Lund (Division for Food Production and Society, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research); Aske Schou Nielsen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: We propose a theoretical framework for the relationship between animal welfare and the economic performance of livestock farms. We empirically analyse this relationship based on a unique data set of randomly sampled Danish pig herds that includes information from unannounced inspections of the compliance with the animal welfare legislation. We find large variations in economic performance indicators and animal welfare indicators. The relationship between these two indicators is rather weak, but tends to be slightly positive. We conclude that management has a major influence on both economic performance and animal welfare so that good farm managers are able to obey all animal welfare regulations and, at the same time, achieve a high economic performance.
    Keywords: animal welfare, gross margin, technical efficiency, pig farms, Denmark
    JEL: Q12
    Date: 2016–08
  8. By: Bhattacharya, Rudrani (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)
    Abstract: During the recent episode of persistently high food inflation in India, the role of rent seeking activities of food suppliers emerged as the centre of debate in the country. The rent seeking activities of agents in both wholesale and retail marketing of food, catered by the lack of a competitive food market and required infrastructure, often causes large positive shocks to mark ups. This paper estimates the contribution of these mark-up shocks at both wholesale and retail level, in food inflation, an issue unexplored in the literature till date. The study finds moderate but significant pass through of mark-up shocks in food inflation after controlling for other factors. The duration of the transmission effect depends on the origin of the shock in wholesale market, while the effect seems to last for five months in retail food inflation. In the backdrop of advocated competitive national market for food commodities to promote greater competition and stabilise large shocks to mark ups, this paper contributes towards understanding the extent to which stabilisation of mark-up shocks can lower wholesale and retail food inflation in the country.
    Keywords: Food inflation ; India ; Mark-up shock ; National market for food commodities ; SVAR
    JEL: C51 E31 Q11 Q13
    Date: 2016–08
  9. By: Daniel Grabowski (University of Giessen)
    Abstract: In 2001 began a rise in the prices of food commodities not seen since the 1970s. The prices of grains—the major staple foods—increased fivefold between 2003 and 2008, leading to the additional malnutrition of millions around the world. Many observers attribute the strong increase in part to speculation in derivatives markets. We examine this hypothesis by comparing the impact of speculation to that of fundamental supply and demand forces. We estimate the share of the price increase attributable to the respective market forces using a sign identified structural vector autoregressive model. Speculation is identified using storage data, though a residual price shock is allowed to ensure the robustness of the findings.
    Date: 2016
  10. By: Christine Dieterich; Anni Huang; Alun H. Thomas
    Abstract: As labor market data is scarce in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), this paper uses household survey data to analyze the determinants of the gender gap in the labor market and its welfare implications for five SSA countries in multinomial logit models with propensity score matching method. The analysis confirms that education opens up opportunities for women to escape agricultural feminization and engage in formal wage employment, but these opportunities diminish when women marry—a disadvantage increasingly relevant when countries develop and urbanization progresses. Opening a household enterprise offers women an alternative avenue to escape low-paid jobs in agriculture, but the increase in per capita income is lower than male-owned household enterprises. These findings underline that improving women’s education needs to be supported by measures to allow married women to keep their jobs in the wage sector.
    Keywords: Employment;Sub-Saharan Africa;Women;Gender;Informal sector;Labor markets;Agricultural sector;Education;Labor force participation;Unemployment;Multi-sector Labor Market, Agriculture Feminization, Female Informal Employment, Household Enterprise Employment, SSA Labor Market
    Date: 2016–06–13
  11. By: Phu Nguyen-Van; Cyrielle Poiraud; Nguyen To-The
    Abstract: This paper analyzes households’ choice on tea varieties in Vietnam by using a multinomial logit model. The modelling takes into account the issue of unobserved individual heterogeneity and the endogeneity of some explanatory variables (use of chemical and organic fertilizers). The results show that important factors influencing the decision to adopt one type of tea varieties include income, age, household size, farming contract, and use of organic fertilizers, but also membership of professional associations such as the Tea Association and the Farmers Union.
    Keywords: Multinomial logit; Unobserved heterogeneity; Tea varieties; Vietnam.
    JEL: C25 C12 G12 Q18
    Date: 2016
  12. By: Svetlov, Nikolai (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Central Economics and Mathematics Institute); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper presents the economic and mathematical analysis of the likely consequences of the transition to a single agri-food policy in the three countries EAEC - Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. Use any copyrighted modification of economic-mathematical model of partial equilibrium EPACIS, which eliminates the drawbacks associated with alternative solutions and computational problems. The expediency of a conservative approach to integration processes in the EAEC, consisting in the integration of primary markets, the integration of the least prone to stress; the priority of improving the competitiveness of inefficient sectors to the integration of markets; ready to suspend the acts aimed at deepening integration, the detection of adverse effects.
    Keywords: agri-food policy, EAEC, economic and mathemathical analysis
    Date: 2016–06–07
  13. By: Boris Gershman; Diego Rivera
    Abstract: This paper compares two approaches to measuring subnational ethnolinguistic diversity in Sub-Saharan Africa, one based on censuses and large-scale population surveys and the other relying on the use of geographic information systems (GIS). The two approaches yield sets of regional fractionalization indices that are moderately positively correlated, with a stronger association across rural areas. These differences matter for empirical analysis: in a common sample of regions, survey-based indices of deep-rooted diversity are much more strongly negatively associated with a range of development indicators relative to their highest-quality GIS-based counterparts.
    Keywords: African development, ethnolinguistic diversity, GIS, subnational analysis
    JEL: O10 O15 Z13
    Date: 2016
  14. By: Markus Brueckner; Kien Trung Nguyen
    Abstract: The Vietnamese economy is characterized by a high degree of international trade openness and a relatively low GDP share of net-exports. This paper examines the effect of growth in the terms of trade, and more specifically, in international commodity prices, on Vietnam's GDP per capita growth. The paper finds that, during 2000-2014, growth in the terms of trade contributed positively to Vietnam’s GDP per capita growth but the effect is not large: less than one-tenth of Vietnam’s GDP per capita growth was due to growth in its terms of trade. The paper argues that the relatively small effect of growth in the terms of trade on GDP per capita growth is due to a low GDP share of net-exports. Econometric model estimates show that transitional convergence accounted for about half of Vietnam's GDP per capita growth during 2000-2014.
    Date: 2016–08
  15. By: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
    Abstract: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Vietnam’s economy has experienced solid growth with low inflation, reflecting policy attention to maintaining macroeconomic stability. Economic performance was robust through most of 2015, driven by rapid export growth, foreign direct investment, and strong domestic demand. Manufacturing and exports moderated near year-end, reflecting slowing external demand. Inflation declined below 1 percent in 2015 before ticking upward in early 2016 owing to higher food and administered prices. For 2016, growth is projected to moderate to about 6 percent, reflecting the adverse agriculture shock, lower external demand, and spillovers of tighter global financial conditions.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Public enterprises;Monetary policy;Bank restructuring;Macroprudential Policy;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Vietnam;
    Date: 2016–07–18
  16. By: Das, Rituparna
    Abstract: Given the fact that timber is neither traded as commodity nor is any timber ETF available in India, this paper contains the risk-return profiles of the traded timbers stocks and exploring the plausibility of creating a timber ETF. An important finding here is that it is better to invest in a single stock than in a portfolio and therefore the question of forming a timber ETF does not arise here.
    Keywords: portfolio, timber, solver, risk, ETF
    JEL: G11
    Date: 2016–02–02
  17. By: Mohammad J. Alam; Raghbendra Jha
    Abstract: The analysis of price transmission for commodities requiring processing in vertical markets is challenged by fuzzy policy environments in the case of developing countries. However the analyses of threshold and asymmetries in price transmission at different levels of vertical markets provide a good indicator of market efficiency. The paper employs threshold cointegration that takes into account the asymmetric adjustment towards a long-run equilibrium and short-run price transmission. The paper investigates the non-linear price adjustment in short- and long-run in vertical markets of wheat and flour in Bangladesh. Using monthly wholesale and retail prices of wheat and flour for data from FAOStat for the period January 2008 to February 2016 we develop an asymmetry threshold error correction model for three vertical chains namely (i) wholesale and retail markets of flour, (ii) wholesale markets of wheat and flour, (iii) wholesale markets of wheat and retail markets of flour. We find evidence of threshold effects in vertical wheat-flour markets. The speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium is different when the price deviations exceed the threshold value from when price deviations are below the threshold. Additionally, we find evidence of short-run price asymmetries implying that downstream price responds faster when upstream price increases than when the latter falls. This validates the hypothesis of `rocket and feature` principle in the wheat-to-flour markets in Bangladesh. Proximate reasons for these differences are discussed.
    Keywords: price transmission, vertical markets, wheat and flour, cointegration, asymmetry threshold error correction model
    JEL: C22 C51 Q13 Q18
    Date: 2016
  18. By: Leonhard Kähler; Klaus Eisenack
    Abstract: International environmental agreements have had varying success in the past; the theoretical literature on international environmental agreements (IEAs) explains why freeriding is so common. This paper allows for two strategically different types of countries. Damage functions are concave for some countries (contrary to the standard convexity assumption). This leads to strategic substitutes and complements in emissions reduction within the same model. The interaction of both country types can lead to a stable agreement that is larger than in the standard case, and to more global abatement. Such a stable agreement constitutes an island of stability in addition to the small standard agreement.
    Date: 2016–08
  19. By: Roman Mendelevitch
    Abstract: The achieved international consensus on the 1.5‐2°C target entails that most of current fossil fuel reserves must remain unburned. Currently, a majority of climate policies aiming at this goal are directed towards the demand side. In the absence of a global carbon regime these polices are prone to carbon leakage and other adverse effects. Supply‐side climate policies present an alternative and more direct approach to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels by addressing their production. Here, coal as both, the most abundant and the most emission-intensive fuel, plays a pivotal role. In this paper, I employ a numerical model of the international steam coal market (COALMOD‐World) to examine two alternative supply‐side policies: 1) a production subsidy reform introduced in major coal producing countries, in line with the G20 initiative to reduce global fossil fuel subsidies; 2) a globally implemented moratorium on new coal mines. The model is designed to replicate global patterns of coal supply, demand and international trade. It features endogenous investments in production and transportation capacities in a multi‐period framework and allows for substitution between imports and domestic production of steam coal. Hence, short‐run adjustments (e.g. import substitution effects) and long‐run reactions (e.g. capacity expansions) of exporting and importing countries are endogenously determined. Results show that a subsidy removal, while associated with a small positive total welfare effect, only leads to an insignificant reduction of global emissions. By contrast, a mine moratorium induces a much more pronounced reduction in global coal consumption by effectively limiting coal availability and strongly increasing prices. Depending on the specification of reserves, the moratorium can achieve a coal consumption path consistent with the 1.5‐2°C target.
    Keywords: Supply‐side climate policy, coal markets, reserves, subsidy removal, International trade
    JEL: C72 H25 Q35
    Date: 2016
  20. By: Nikulin, Alexander Mikhailovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kuznetsov, Igor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper provides an overview of the basic concepts of the agrarian crisis, is offered in the Russian economic and historical literature from the end of XIX to the beginning of the XXI century. Stand out periods during which such issues sharply actualized considered conceptual heritage of each of the periods. The basic theory of cycles in relation to the development of agricultural sphere. It is the prospect of further historical and economic study of the problem.
    Keywords: agrarian crisis, Russia, history
    Date: 2016–05–16

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