|
on Agricultural Economics |
|
Issue of 2016‒07‒09
forty-four papers chosen by |
| By: | Bruno Lanz; Simon Dietz; Tim Swanson |
| Abstract: | We study how uncertainty in the evolution of agricultural productivity interacts with economic and population growth, and the associated the demand for food. We use two-sector Schumpeterian model of growth, in which a manufacturing sector produces the traditional consumption good and an agricultural sector produces food to sustain contemporary population. Sectors differ in that agriculture also demands land as an input, itself treated as a scarce form of capital. In our model both population and sectoral technological progress are endogenously determined, and a number of key technological parameters of the model are structurally estimated using 1960-2010 data on world GDP, population, cropland and technological progress. Introducing random shocks to the evolution of total factor productivity in agriculture, we show that uncertainty optimally requires more land to be converted into agricultural use as a hedge against production shortages, and that it signficiantly affects both consumption and population trajectories. |
| JEL: | O11 O13 O31 J11 C61 Q16 Q24 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fsc:fspubl:53&r=agr |
| By: | Aslihan Arslan (FAO-ESA); Federico Belotti (CEIS,University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Leslie Lipper (FAO-ESA) |
| Abstract: | Food security in Tanzania is projected to deteriorate as a result of climate change. In spite of the efforts to promote agricultural practices to improve productivity and food security, adoption rates of such practices remain low. Developing a thorough understanding of the determinants of adoption and updating our understanding of the impacts of these technologies under the site-specific effects of climate change are crucial to improve food security. This paper addresses these issues by using a novel data set that combines information from two large-scale household surveys with geo-referenced historical rainfall and temperature data in order to understand the determinants of the adoption of a set of agricultural practices and their impacts on maize productivity under weather shocks in Tanzania. The specific practices analyzed are: maize-legume intercropping, soil and water conservation practices (SWC), the use of organic fertilizers, inorganic fertilizers and high yielding maize varieties. We find strong complementarities between these practices both in terms of adoption and yield impacts. Long-run variability in rainfall decreases the adoption of fertilizers (both organic and inorganic) and increases that of improved seeds. Access to information and extension increase the incentives to adopt modern inputs as well as SWC. Farmers in areas where the cropping season’s rainfall has been highly variable and temperature has been unexpectedly high have significantly lower maize yields. SWC emerges as one of the most important practices in increasing yields with significant benefits by itself, in combination with other practices, under average weather conditions as well as under rainfall and temperature shocks. The shocks we analyze are expected to increase under climate change, underlining the importance of policies to buffer food security from the estimated effects of climate change. This paper contributes to evidence base to support policies to advance food security under climate change by underlining the importance of integrating site-specific analyses of climatic variables and their interactions with promoted practices in policy design and targeting. |
| Keywords: | Technology adoption, productivity analysis, climate change, panel data, Tanzania. |
| JEL: | C23 C33 Q12 Q15 Q16 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:388&r=agr |
| By: | Lara Cockx; Nathalie Francken |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the world food price crisis, the issue of food and nutrition security has received a high level of political attention and the international donor community has repeatedly underlined its commitment to combat hunger in the world. In order to enhance the effectiveness of the international community's efforts in addressing the widespread problem of malnutrition, we need to improve our knowledge on what activities donors are currently engaging in and which interventions have been shown to be successful. This paper offers both an overview of the aid for food and nutrition security landscape and how it has changed and an extensive review of the available evidence on the impact of a wide array of interventions aimed at addressing all four dimensions of food and nutrition security; availability, access, utilization and stability. We find that despite the renewed interest and elevated levels of funding for food and nutrition security assistance in developing countries, the empirical evidence base for the effectiveness of these interventions in improving beneficiaries' food and nutrition security - although in several cases promising - is weak. In particular, the question whether different interventions improve the quality of food consumption and consequently nutrient intake and status, remains largely unanswered. Moreover, few studies assess longer-term effects and there exists relatively little rigorous evidence that compares different interventions. It is therefore strongly recommended to undertake additional research to improve the evidence base as this would allow researchers and policy makers to establish the type of approaches that improve food and nutrition security in the most efficient and cost-effective manner. Finally, in order to facilitate this process, there is a need for a clear and uniform definition of food and nutrition security assistance on the one hand as well as agreed upon, comprehensive indicators on the other hand. |
| JEL: | F35 F53 I38 O12 O13 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fsc:fspubl:47&r=agr |
| By: | Ronan Congar (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON); Louis Hotte (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the general equilibrium effects of a fundamental property regime transition in the rural sector - agricultural or resource - when both labor and (reproducible) capital are free to move. In contrast to manufacturing, rural production has two characteristic features: it uses a fixed natural asset (land or other natural resources) and operates under one of two property regime types: common property versus exclusive property. Common property is fundamentally characterized with sharing, thus corresponding to such institutions as the family farm (Lewis 1954), free access to resources, and collective use, but adapted for the presence of capital use. We show that labor may actually gain from being effectively forced out of the rural sector. More generally, relative factor intensities determine the factor return effects of the transition, as well as either capital or labor deepening in both sectors. And while the unit cost of effective input efforts decrease, both factors flow out of the rural sector. Under a common property regime, the agricultural productivity gaps for labor and capital are uniquely determined by the output elasticity of land. |
| Keywords: | Institutions, Property Rights, Agriculture, Natural Resources, Factor Migration, Factor Returns, Redistribution, Factor Misallocation, Structural Changes, Agrarian Reform, Resource Privatisation |
| JEL: | D02 D23 D33 L16 N50 O13 O15 O17 Q15 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ott:wpaper:1606e&r=agr |
| By: | Akram, Waqar; Henneberry, Shida |
| Abstract: | We have analyzed the food consumption patterns and then estimated consumption elasticities for Urban Punjab. For this purpose we used LA-AIDS model specification by forming ten food groups using HIES 2013-14 data and applied seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). We found that, people of Pakistan with the passage of time consuming less amount of wheat and wheat flour, it may be due to the shifting towards fast foods and other substitutes such as rice, corn, and backing flour. Our study suggest that, urbanization and exclusion of the livestock from the main cities may be a threat to food security. Appropriate measures must be taken by the Government to ensure the food availability and to keep the prices smooth. |
| Keywords: | Urban food consumption, LA-AIDS, expenditure elasticities, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, D12, |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:237308&r=agr |
| By: | Amundsen, Eirik Schrøder (Department of Economics, University of Bergen, Norway); Jensen, Frank (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the problem of a water management authority faced with the threat of a drought that hits at an uncertain date. Three management policies are investigated: i) a laissez-faire (open-access) policy of automatic adjustment through a zero marginal private net benefit condition, ii) a policy of optimal dynamic management ignoring the threat of the drought and relying on automatic adjustments through a zero marginal social net benefit condition, iii) an economically optimal dynamic policy taking account of the threat of a drought. In particular, we show that the optimal pre-drought steady-state equilibrium stock size of water under policy iii) is smaller than under policy ii) and, hence, a precautionary stock size should not be built up prior to the drought. |
| Keywords: | Drought; Groundwater management; uncertainty |
| JEL: | Q20 Q22 |
| Date: | 2016–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bergec:2016_005&r=agr |
| By: | Kalkuhl, Matthias; von Braun, Joachim; Torero, Maximo |
| Abstract: | This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility. |
| Keywords: | Commodity markets; Risk management; Speculation; Financialization; Emergency reserve; Trade policy |
| JEL: | E3 F1 G1 I1 Q1 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72164&r=agr |
| By: | Jean-christophe PEREAU; Lauriane MOUYSSET; Luc DOYEN |
| Abstract: | This article studies the sustainability of market-based instrument such as tradable permits for the management of a renewable aquifer used in agriculture production. Based on a dynamic hydro-economic model, a water agency aims at satisfying a food security constraint within a tradable permit scheme in the presence of myopic heterogeneous agents. We identify analytically the viability kernel that defines the states of the resource yielding inter-temporal feasible paths able to satisfy the set of constraints over time. We then illustrate the results with numerical simulations based on the data from Gisser and Sanchez (1980).\r\nKeywords: Groundwater, Agriculture, |
| Keywords: | Groundwater, Agriculture, Irrigation, Food security, Individual permits, Sustainability, Dynamic model, Viability kernel. |
| JEL: | Q25 C61 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2016-14&r=agr |
| By: | Wieliczko, Barbara; Kurdyś-Kujawska, Agnieszka |
| Abstract: | EU and national policy instruments influencing agricultural and rural development. CAP instruments. National policy instruments influencing development of rural areas and agriculture. Fiscal multipliers. Returnable financing and agriculture. |
| Keywords: | European Union, policy instruments, agricultural, rural development, CAP instruments, development, rural areas, fiscal multipliers, returnable financing, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepr:236942&r=agr |
| By: | Wichman, Casey J. (Resources for the Future); Taylor, Laura O.; von Haefen, Roger H. |
| Abstract: | Although prescriptive policies are commonly employed by resource managers to encourage conservation, economists tend to advocate for pricing mechanisms on efficiency grounds. However, many environmental management contexts involve resources whose prices are regulated by utility commissions or federal oversight. As such, the use of pricing tools to encourage conservation is politically challenging. This is particularly true with water resource management. Efficiency would dictate that price should reflect long-run marginal cost of provision, including scarcity rents, which is typically greater than regulated market prices (Mansur and Olmstead 2012). As such, nonprice strategies, also referred to as prescriptive policies, have become popular demand management tools for water conservation during periods of drought when the short-run reliability of water resource systems is at risk. These strategies can take the form of restrictions on outdoor water use (Castledine et al. 2014; Renwick and Green 2000), information campaigns (Coleman 1999), social comparisons (Ferraro and Price 2013), or financial incentives for technology adoption (Bennear et al. 2013; Renwick and Archibald 1998). A noteworthy case where nonprice (and to a lesser degree, price) policies have been adopted to reduce water consumption is that of California, where Governor Jerry Brown recently issued an executive order that mandates a 25 percent reduction in urban potable water use to combat the ongoing statewide drought. |
| Keywords: | water demand, nonprice policies, price regulation, conservation, drought |
| JEL: | Q25 D12 H42 L51 L95 |
| Date: | 2016–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-16-10&r=agr |
| By: | Feinerman, E.; Yaron, D. |
| Abstract: | Linear programming models, deterministic in the short run and stochastic (random rainfall) in the long run, aimed at guiding annual decision-making with regard to crop mix and saline irrigation water mixing from various sources within a farm framework, are presented. The short run model incorporates the physical, biological and economic relationships involved in one endogenous system and enables an in-depth analysis of them, but is limited to a single year. The long run model considers the effects of the short run decisions on the future but several relationships are incorporated exogenously. The short run model's results are utilized for the determination of some of these predetermined relationships. The models are applied to a potential farm situation in southern Israel. The results provide priorities in the allocation of water and soil plots of varying salinity levels and empirical estimates of the shadow prices and the rates of substitution between the limited resources. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:hecaer:232610&r=agr |
| By: | Mkondiwa, Maxwell Gibson |
| Abstract: | Are spatially specific agricultural input use recommendations more profitable to smallholder farmers than broad recommendations? This paper provides a theoretical and empirical modeling procedure for determining the optimal spatial scale at which agricultural researchers can make soil fertility recommendations. Theoretically, the use of Bayesian decision theory in the spatial economic optimization model allows the complete characterization of the posterior distribution functions of profits thereby taking into account spatial heterogeneity and uncertainty in the decision making process. By applying first order spatial scale stochastic dominance and Jensen’s inequality; theoretically and empirically, this paper makes the case that spatially specific agricultural input use recommendations will always stochastically dominate broad recommendations for all non-decreasing profit functions ignoring the quasi-fixed cost differentials in the decision itself. These findings are consistent with many economic studies that find precision agriculture technologies to be more profitable than conventional fertilizer (regional or national recommendations based) application approaches. The modeling approach used in this study however provides an elegant theoretical justification for such results. In addition, seasonal heterogeneity in maize responses was evident in our results. This demonstrates that broad recommendations may not only be wrong spatially but also seasonally. Further research on the empirical aspects of spatio-temporal instability of crop responses to fertilizer application using multi-location and multi-season data is needed to fully address the question posed initially. The decision making theory developed here can however be extended to incorporate spatio-temporal heterogeneity and alternative risk preferences. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian decision theory, spatial scale stochastic dominance, spatial heterogeneity, Malawi, Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umapmt:237344&r=agr |
| By: | de Laat, Joost; Jayachandran, Seema; Lambin, Eric F.; Stanton, Charlotte |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates a Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) program in western Uganda that offered forest-owning households cash payments if they conserved their forest. The program was implemented as a randomized trial in 121 villages, 60 of which received the program for two years. The PES program reduced deforestation and forest degradation: Tree cover, measured using high-resolution satellite imagery, declined by 2% to 5% in treatment villages compared to 7% to 10% in control villages during the study period. We find no evidence of shifting of tree-cutting to nearby land. We then use the estimated effect size and the social cost of carbon to value the delayed CO2 emissions, and compare this benefit to the program's cost. |
| Keywords: | climate change; conditional cash transfers; deforestation; REDD+ |
| JEL: | O13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11349&r=agr |
| By: | Iqbal, Md Zabid; Babcock, Bruce |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:237381&r=agr |
| By: | Nicholas Kilimani, Jan van Heerden, Heinrich Bohlmann, Louise Roos |
| Abstract: | Climate variability can affect economies directly through its impact on agricultural output, and indirectly, through its effect on the activities of down-stream industries and household welfare. This paper uses a Computable General Equilibrium model with a disaggregated agricultural sector to analyse the impact of a drought on the Ugandan economy. The losses were assessed with respect to GDP, agricultural output, employment, the trade balance and household consumption. The drought effects were shown to vary by sector. The fall in employment within the agricultural industries was less compared to the output losses. At a macro level, exports declined, while at a household level, the terms of trade gains mitigated part of the potential welfare losses thereby reducing consumption, but to a lesser degree. The findings indicate that a drought can cause substantial losses to the economy. The need for targeted interventions to mitigate such drought impacts is therefore critical. |
| Keywords: | Computable General Equilibrium modelling; Drought, Economic activity, Uganda |
| JEL: | D58 Q25 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:616&r=agr |
| By: | Nicholas Kilimani (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Jan van Heerden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Heinrich Bohlmann (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Louise Roos (Centre for Policy Studies, Victoria University, Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | Climate variability can affect economies directly through its impact on agricultural output, and indirectly, through its effect on the activities of down-stream industries and household welfare. This paper uses a Computable General Equilibrium model with a disaggregated agricultural sector to analyse the impact of a drought on the Ugandan economy. The losses were assessed with respect to GDP, agricultural output, employment, the trade balance and household consumption. The drought effects were shown to vary by sector. The fall in employment within the agricultural industries was less compared to the output losses. At a macro level, exports declined, while at a household level, the terms of trade gains mitigated part of the potential welfare losses thereby reducing consumption, but to a lesser degree. The findings indicate that a drought can cause substantial losses to the economy. The need for targeted interventions to mitigate such drought impacts is therefore critical. |
| Keywords: | computable general equilibrium modelling, drought, economic activity, Uganda |
| JEL: | D58 Q25 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201649&r=agr |
| By: | Nataraj, Shanthi; Harrison, Ann E.; Martin, Leslie A.; Hyman, Ben |
| Abstract: | India has a multitude of environmental regulations but a history of poor enforcement. Between 1996 and 2004, India's Supreme Court required 17 cities to enact Action Plans to reduce air pollution through a variety of command-and-control (CAC) environmental regulations. We compare the impacts of these regulations with the impact of changes in coal prices on establishment-level pollution abatement, coal consumption, and productivity growth. We find that higher coal prices reduced coal use within establishments, with price elasticities similar to those found in the US. In addition, higher coal prices are associated with lower pollution emissions at the district level. CAC regulations did not affect within-establishment pollution control investment or coal use, but did impact the extensive margin, increasing the share of large establishments investing in pollution control and reducing the entry of new establishments. For reducing SO2 emissions, our results suggest that higher coal prices were more effective in improving environmental outcomes than command and control measures. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1133&r=agr |
| By: | Zeng, Shuwei; Gould, Brian; Du, Xiaodong |
| Abstract: | Under the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) and California milk pricing systems, milk value is determined by the value of components that are important to the manufacture of dairy products such as cheddar cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk and dry whey. This implies that the value of 100 lbs of milk will differ across farms due to different solids composition, i.e., fat, protein and other solids. Milk composition can be managed by dairy farm operators via the choice of cow breed, the number of lactations to keep a cow in the herd, ration formulations, feeding management, cow comfort, etc. Given these milk valuation systems we represent the profit maximizing problem of producers a problem of maximizing profits from multiple products (i.e., milk components). The milk valuation system should be accounted for when examining dairy production efficiency. Previous analysis have typically use the total amount of milk produced as a measure of output, not the production of its components. In this paper, we use hedonic aggregate functions to generate an aggregate output index that implicitly incorporated in an input-oriented distance function. We employ data from the 2005 USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS)-Dairy Survey for this analysis. A unique feature of the 2005 survey is that it contains information on the total amount of milk components produced by each farms milking herd. From this analysis we find that the estimated technical efficiency has less variance, but larger range compared to the method using milk yield as output. A great share of producers have technical efficiency more than 0.9. |
| Keywords: | Quality adjustment productivity, Technical Efficiency, Dairy Production., Farm Management, Industrial Organization, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:237347&r=agr |
| By: | Heboyan, Vahe; Hovhannisyan, Vardges |
| Keywords: | cigarette, quantile regression, demand, Demand and Price Analysis, Health Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:237444&r=agr |
| By: | Koichiro Ito; Shuang Zhang |
| Abstract: | We develop a framework to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for clean air from defensive investment. Applying this framework to product-by-store level scanner data on air purifier sales in China, we provide among the first revealed preference estimates of WTP for clean air in developing countries. A spatial discontinuity in air pollution created by the Huai River heating policy enables us to analyze household responses to long-run exposure to pollution. Our model allows heterogeneity in preference parameters to investigate potential heterogeneity in WTP among households. We show that our estimates provide important policy implications for optimal environmental regulation. |
| JEL: | L0 Q0 Q5 Q51 Q52 Q53 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22367&r=agr |
| By: | Boskovic, Branko (University of Alberta); Nøstbakken, Linda (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | Regulation often evolves, and affected consumers or firms may adjust their behavior in anticipation of potential changes to regulation. Using shifting land use regulation boundaries and oil lease prices from Canada, we estimate the effect of anticipated regulatory change on the value of land. We find that anticipated rezoning decreases the price of unregulated leases. Based on our estimates, not accounting for anticipation underestimates the total cost of the regulation by nearly one-third. Overall, the evidence suggests that anticipation effects are signi cant and that the cost of anticipated regulation is capitalized into land values. |
| Keywords: | Regulation; anticipation; land values; zoning; oil leases; endangered species. |
| JEL: | D44 Q30 Q52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2016_009&r=agr |
| By: | Adil Khan Miankhel (Embassy of Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | Institutions are source of comparative advantage or disadvantage in international trade. Socio-economic and political constraints also matter for creating comparative advantage and affect the trade pattern of a country. These diverse ‘beyond the border’ and ‘behind the border’ constraints are often not fully captured in the literature on international trade and institutions. The existence of such institutional, socio-economic, and political constraints to Pakistani exports is empirically investigated in this paper through a cross-sectional analysis employing a trade Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Aggregate data for 2006-08 and 2009-11 show lower exports in the latter period. This is attributed to demand-suppressing effects emanating from the 2008 global financial crisis and supply-suppressing effects emanating from energy shortfalls and input constraints, due to floods, in Pakistan. The model estimation then demonstrates that behind the border constraints in Pakistan are statistically significant in explaining total exports during 2009-11. The estimation is also presented for four single-digit SIC categories of products for this period. Behind the border constraints are evident for SIC 0 (agriculture, forestry and fish products) and SIC 2 (manufactured products) that combined account for approximately 80 percent of Pakistan’s exports. The estimation results by country further demonstrate that behind the border constraints affect the pattern of trade through the non-realization of bilateral trade potential. In the post-financial crisis era, Pakistan needs to further develop its institutional capacity to promote competitive exports given the explicit and implicit beyond the border trade barriers it faces and work to remove political obstacles to regional trade. |
| JEL: | F13 O24 O19 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:25651&r=agr |
| By: | Sekeris, Petros; Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the effect of massive refugees flows to the Greek islands on natives' political attitudes. Our results show a significant effect of refugees' presence on xenophobia. This outcome is robust under FE estimates and IV strategies. Furthermore the particular context of our study and the timing of the elections allow us to dismiss anti-immigration votes being casted for different motives than purely xenophobic reactions. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, refugee crisis, voting |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2016–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72222&r=agr |
| By: | Porter,Catherine; White,Emily Jennifer |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the potential to combine catastrophe risk modelling (CAT risk modeling) with economic analysis of vulnerability to poverty using the example of drought hazard impacts on the welfare of rural households in Ethiopia. The aim is to determine the potential for applying a derived set of damage (vulnerability) functions based on realized shocks and household expenditure/consumption outcomes, onto a forward-looking view of drought risk. The paper outlines the CAT risk modeling framework and the role of the vulnerability module, which describes the response of an affected exposure to a given hazard intensity. The need to explicitly account for different household characteristics that determine vulnerability within our model is considered, analogous to how a CAT risk model would differentiate damage functions for buildings by different classes of construction. Results for a regression model are presented, estimating ex-post drought impacts on consumption for heterogeneous household types (e.g. with cattle, safety-net access, illness). Next, the validity/generalizability of the derived functions are assessed, to infer applicability of the derived relationships within a CAT risk modelling framework. In particular, the analysis focuses on external validity: whether the relationships established in the dataset can be used for forecasting outside of the sample used for analysis. The model is stress-tested using statistical methods of resampling. This involves randomly splitting the data into ?training? and"testing"datasets. The tests show consistency of results across the datasets. Finally, future plans are outlined with regard to developing a fuller catastrophe risk model to combine with the consumption results. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change Economics,Regional Economic Development,Hazard Risk Management,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2016–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7717&r=agr |
| By: | Roson,Roberto; Sartori,Martina |
| Abstract: | Climate change damage (or, more correctly, impact) functions relate variations in temperature (or other climate variables) to economic impacts in various dimensions, and are at the basis of quantitative modeling exercises for the assessment of climate change policies. This document provides a summary of results from a series of meta-analyses aimed at estimating parameters for six specific damage functions, referring to: sea level rise, agricultural productivity, heat effects on labor productivity, human health, tourism flows, and households'energy demand. All parameters of the damage functions are estimated for each of the 140 countries and regions in the Global Trade Analysis Project 9 data set. To illustrate the salient characteristics of the estimates, the change in real gross domestic product is approximated for the different effects, in all regions, corresponding to an increase in average temperature of +3°C. After considering the overall impact, the paper highlights which factor is the most significant one in each country, and elaborates on the distributional consequences of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change Economics,Science of Climate Change,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Wetlands,Health Monitoring&Evaluation |
| Date: | 2016–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7728&r=agr |
| By: | Chakir, Raja; Laurent, Thibault; Ruiz-Gazen, Anne; Thomas-Agnan, Christine; Vignes, Céline |
| Abstract: | We consider the problem of land use prediction at di erent spatial scales using point level data such as the Teruti-Lucas (T-L hereafter1) survey and some explanatory variables. We analyze the components of the prediction error using a synthetic data set constructed from the Teruti-Lucas points in the Midi-Pyrénées region and a ve categories land use classi cation. The study rst shows that the number of points in the Teruti- Lucas survey is quite enough for estimating the probabilities of each land use category with a good quality. Furthermore it reveals that, contrary to usual practice, when the objective is to predict land use at aggregated levels, land use probabilities should be estimated at more locations where explanatory variables are available rather than restricting to the initial Teruti-Lucas locations. Indeed this strategy borrows strength from the knowledge of the explanatory variables which may be heterogeneous. Finally, guidelines for constructing the grid of locations for estimation are given from the analysis of the heterogeneity of each explanatory variable. |
| Keywords: | land use models, spatial scale, Teruti-Lucas survey, Gini-Simpson impurity index, classication tree |
| JEL: | C21 C25 Q15 R14 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30546&r=agr |
| By: | Beatty, Timothy; Katare, Bhagyashree |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the characteristics of a recall affect the volume of media coverage about that recall. We link data on media reports to a comprehensive list of virtually all recalls of meat products over the period 2001--2012. We find considerable evidence that, up to a point, the characteristics of a food recall significantly affect reporting about that recall. Specifically a one percent increase in the volume of meat recalled results in a 0.1 percent increase in media coverage. In addition, we find that media coverage is significantly larger for incidents related to bacterial contamination as compared to other types of recalls. |
| Keywords: | Meat Recall. Food Safety, Media Bias, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, |
| Date: | 2016–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:239243&r=agr |
| By: | Chad P. Bown; Jennifer A. |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a legal-economic assessment of issues arising in the Panel Report over the WTO’s India – Agricultural Products dispute, one of a growing list of disputes arising at the intersection of the WTO and domestic regulatory policy over human, animal or plant health. This dispute featured allegations that India’s import measures applied against avian influenza (AI) infected countries over poultry and related products were too restrictive, in light of the World Organisation for Animal Health’s (OIE’s) scientifically-motivated standards and guidelines. We rely on insights from a set of economic models of commercial poultry markets in the presence of negative externalities such as AI. We use such models to motivate critical tradeoffs arising at the intersection of government regulatory regimes designed to deal with AI, and how they fit alongside trade agreements such as the WTO and standard-setting bodies such as the OIE, which combine to impose constraints on regulatory and trade policy. While we find the institutional design of the OIE to be well-motivated and we are in broad agreement with the overall thrust of the Panel Report in the dispute, we also highlight a number of subtle issues which pose long-term challenges for the multilateral trading system’s ability to balance trade rules with public health concerns. |
| Keywords: | WTO, dispute settlement, bird flu, OIE, health regulation, avian influenza |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2015/71&r=agr |
| By: | Embaye, Weldensie; Bergtold, Jason; Schwab, Ben; Shanoyan, Aleksan |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital, |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:239230&r=agr |
| By: | Pawłowska-Tyszko, Joanna; Soliwoda, Michał; Pieńkowska-Kamieniecka, Sylwia; Walczuk, Damian |
| Abstract: | Agriculture taxation in Poland. Income taxation in agriculture – review and assessment of solutions. Suggestions for income taxation in Polish agriculture and their assessment. Social security in agriculture. Current and proposed changes in economic insurance in agriculture. |
| Keywords: | agriculture taxation, Poland, income taxation, agriculture, Polish agriculture, social security, economic insurance, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepr:236930&r=agr |
| By: | Schusser, Sandra (CERE and the Department of Forest Economics, SLU); Jaraite, Jurate (CERE and the Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | The European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the Swedish-Norwegian Tradable Green Certicate System (Swedish-Norwegian TGC system) are two market-based instruments that have the overlapping goal to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by shifting economies to cleaner energy sources. Understanding the price signals and interactions of these two newly created markets is essential for all decisions makers, regulators and direct market participants, who aim to reach the predefined environmental policy goals in the most efficient manner. The interaction between these policy instruments has been widely examined from the theoretical perspective. This research contributes to the literature by empirically examining the interplay between the prices of three markets: (1) the price of tradable green certificates in the Swedish-Norwegian TGC system, (2) the price of carbon in the EU ETS and (3) the price of electricity in Nord Pool. We use a multivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) approach to take into account the endogenous relationships between these prices. To date, our empirical results do not support the theoretical considerations that the impacts of carbon price on green certicate prices and on renewable electricity production are negative. Contrary, we find that, to date, increases in carbon prices positively affect green certificate prices at least in the short-run. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy; Electricity; Green certificates; Emissions trading; EU ETS; interactions; tradable green certificates; Sweden; VAR model |
| JEL: | Q28 Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:slucer:2016_010&r=agr |
| By: | Bento, Antonio (University of Southern California, Sol Price School of Public Policy and NBER); Kanbur, Ravi; Leard, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Incorporating carbon offsets in the design of cap-and-trade programs remains a controversial issue because of its potential unintended impacts on emissions. At the heart of this discussion is the issue of crediting of emissions reductions. Projects can be correctly, over- or under-credited for their actual emissions reductions. We develop a unified framework that considers the supply of offsets within a cap-and-trade program that allows us to compare the relative impact of over-credited offsets and under-credited emissions reductions on overall emissions under different levels of baseline stringency and carbon prices. In the context of a national carbon pricing scheme that includes offsets, we find that the emissions impacts of over-credited offsets can be fully balanced out by under-credited emissions reductions without sacrificing a significant portion of the overall supply of offsets, provided emissions baselines are stringent enough. In the presence of high predicted business-as-usual (BAU) emissions uncertainty or low carbon prices, to maintain the environmental integrity of the program, baselines need to be set at stringent levels, in some cases below 50 percent of predicted BAU emissions. As predicted BAU emissions uncertainty declines or as the carbon market achieves higher equilibrium prices, however, less stringent baselines can balance out the emissions impacts of over-credited offsets and under-credited emissions reductions. These results imply that to maintain environmental integrity of offsets programs, baseline stringency should be tailored to project characteristics and market conditions that influence the proportion of over-credited offsets to under-credited emissions reductions. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Offsets, Crediting, Environmental Integrity |
| Date: | 2016–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-16-11&r=agr |
| By: | Hurley, Sean |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how to estimate revenue from avoided demand charges that are part of a net-metering time-of-use contract that is seen in California. Utilizing fifteen minute kW data regarding supply and demand of electricity for a digester operator, simulation modeling was used to investigate electricity bills, specifically demand charges. Findings show that demand charges are an important component for a digester operator to be mindful of when selecting the individual’s initial engine configuration and maintenance scheduling. |
| Keywords: | anaerobic digesters, time-of-use, net metering, dairy, best management practices, electricity generation, differential pricing, Agribusiness, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:237368&r=agr |
| By: | Agarwal, Sandip; Jacobs, Keri L.; Weninger, Quinn |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:237380&r=agr |
| By: | Zeng, Shuwei; Gould, Brian |
| Abstract: | This study is used to examine the characteristics of the retail price adjustment within the U.S. fluid whole milk market. We employ an error correction model (ECM) to test for asymmetry in the transmission of farm milk price changes to changes in the retail price. In this analysis we use monthly data of farm and retail whole milk prices encompassing the January 2001 to December 2011 period for 16 U.S. cities. Several cities were found to display asymmetric price transmission where retail prices tended to respond more quickly with farm price increases vs. decreases. |
| Keywords: | Retail Milk Price, Price Transmission, Price Asymmetry., Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:237346&r=agr |
| By: | Abramczuk, Łukasz; Augustyńska-Grzymek, Irena; Czułowska, Magdalena; Jabłoński, Konrad; Józwiak, Wojciech; Skarżyńska, Aldona; Zieliński, Marek; Ziętara, Wojciech; Żekało, Marcin |
| Abstract: | Households engaged in agricultural production and agricultural holdings of natural persons with characterisitics of enterprises. Economic standing and investment activity of agricultural holdings particularly vulnerable to agricultural drought and other holdings in 2006-2013. Organisation and efficiency of Polish agricultural holdings specialising in field crops against holdings from selected countries. Gross margin from selected agricultural products in 2014 – regional approach. The smallest and the largest domestic agricultural entities of natural persons not covered by the monitoring of the Polish FADN in 2010-2013. |
| Keywords: | households, agricultural production, agricultural holdings, economic standing, investment activity, organization, efficiency, Polish agricultural holdings, field crops, gross, agricultural products, domestic agricultural entities, Polish FADN, climate change, agricultural policy, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepr:236931&r=agr |
| By: | Gianluigi Coppola (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche - University of Salerno (ITALY)); Monica Gambino (NISEA - FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE RESEARCH ORGANIZATION); Alfonso Pellecchia; Dario Pinello (NISEA - FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE RESEARCH ORGANIZATION); Evelina Carmen Sabatella (NISEA - FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE RESEARCH ORGANIZATION) |
| Abstract: | The Italian fleet is characterized by a low geographical concentrations and by strong differences in specialization, productivity and profitability between maritime regions and fleet segments. In this paper we try to test the differences in technology and in the level of economy of scale existing among the Italian fleet segments on the basis of the estimation of a translog Cost function (among others Pascoe, 2007; Eggert and Tveteras, 2007). It permits to measure the elasticity of substitution among factors, to assess if it is constant or not and also to estimate the level of economies of scale. The model was applied on a dataset of around 900 vessels; these vessels are part of the sample used within the Italian National Program under the Data Collection Framework to estimate the economic variables of the Italian fishing fleets. The sampling is of a stratified nature in that the fishing vessels of the fleet are divided into homogenous groups (fleet segment and maritime regions) Independent samples are taken from each of these clusters through a Probability Proportional to Size (PPS). The estimate of the value of capital invested in the sector derives from the application of the PIM methodology (Perpetual Inventory Method). The model was applied to the following two segments: trawlers and artisanal vessels. The results of the study mainly attest the existence of economy of scale in both 2 fleet segments. Language: en |
| Keywords: | : Capacity, Economies of Scale, Translog Cost Function |
| JEL: | Q22 D23 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irf:wpaper:017&r=agr |
| By: | Edwin Zaccai |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/232157&r=agr |
| By: | Alem, Yonas (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Maurel, Mathilde (CNRS-Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, and FERDI); Millock, Katrin (CNRS-Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | There is solid scientific evidence predicting that a large part of the developing world will suffer a greater incidence of extreme weather events, which may increase the incidence of displacement migration. We draw on the new economics of migration to model migration decisions of smallholder and rain-dependent farm households in rural Ethiopia and investigate both the ex-ante and ex-post impacts of climate variables. Using detailed household survey panel data matched with rainfall data, we show that weather variability - measured by the coeffcient of variation of rainfall - has a strong positive impact on the probability of sending a migrant. This implies that households engage in migration to cope with risk ex-ante. We also find evidence suggesting that rainfall shocks have ex-post impact on households' likelihood of migration, but the effect is not statistically significant at the conventional levels. Instrumental variables probit regression results also show that controlling for endogeneity of income using a credible instrument is important to identify its impact on the decision to send a migrant. Our findings have important implications for policies aiming to improve the capacity of vulnerable households to adapt to climate change. |
| Keywords: | climate change; drought; Ethiopia; household survey; migration; rainfall. |
| JEL: | O15 Q54 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0665&r=agr |
| By: | Bhattarai, Madhusudan; P, Padmaja; Joshi, P K |
| Abstract: | This is a poster prepared for presentation at AAEA 2016 annual conference in Boston, MA. |
| Keywords: | Household behavior, Panel data analyses, formal and informal sector of credit, Financial Markets, and Agricultural Economics, Natural resources, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics, International Development, Production Economics, Public Economics, P 36, C23, O17, O16, O13, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236929&r=agr |
| By: | Jean-Marie Baland (CRED, University of Namur, BREAD and CEPR); François Libois (CRED, University of Namur); Dilip Mookherjee (Boston University and BREAD) |
| Abstract: | A household panel data set is used to investigate the effects of economic growth on firewood collection in Nepal between 1995 and 2010. Results from preceding crosssectional analyses are found to be robust: (a) rising consumptions for all but the top decile were associated with increased firewood collections, contrary to the PovertyEnvironment hypothesis; (b) sources of growth matter: increased livestock was associated with increased collections, and falling household size, increased education, non-farm business assets and road connectivity with reduced collections. Nepal households collected 25% less firewood over this period, mostly explained by falling livestock, and rising education, connectivity and out-migration |
| Keywords: | deforestation, growth, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Nepal |
| JEL: | D12 O1 Q2 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nam:befdwp:0105&r=agr |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | The end of supply chain is the natural corollary of the sustained price fall of virtually all commodities observed over the past many months. If it appears premature to state exactly what is the impact of this deconsolidation in the commoditiesvalue chain, it is believed that the strategic role of physical trading is strengthening. Under such circumstances, the industrial strategies of developing countries and commodity exporters may have to evolve and, in priority, foster optimizing international distribution networks and managing price risk. |
| Keywords: | Commodities, oil, prices , supply chain, costs, investment, financial markets, strategy, integration, economy |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb-1526&r=agr |
| By: | Ali Reza Oryoie; Jeffrey Alwang; Nicolaus Tideman |
| Abstract: | More than 20 percent of the world’s children work. Agriculture is the largest employer of working children, and most child laborers work on farms their families own. This paper shows that the relationship between use of children as laborers and land holding is nuanced. Child labor generally decreases as per capita land holding increases, but there is a persistent upward bump in the relationship between child labor and landholding near the middle of the range of land per capita. This pattern is repeated in three surveys conducted in Zimbabwe, in 2001, 2007-8 and 2010-11. The bump can be explained theoretically by the relationship between the marginal productivity of a child worker on the farm and the marginal value placed on his/her education, at different levels of wealth. |
| Keywords: | Child Labor; Land Holding; Marginal Productivity; Household Wealth |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vpi:wpaper:e07-51&r=agr |
| By: | Gallier, Carlo; Langbein, Jörg; Vance, Colin |
| Abstract: | We conduct a framed field experiment in Indonesian fishing communities with an eye towards evaluating the potential of Territorial Use Rights for Fisheries (TURFs) for preserving coral reef fisheries. Conducted in three culturally distinctive sites, the study assembles groups of five fishers who participate in a common-pool resource game. We implement the game with randomly assigned treatments in all sites to explore whether the extraction decision varies according to three recommended non-binding extraction levels originating from (1) a democratic process, (2) a group leader or (3) an external source that recommends a socially optimal extraction level. In one of the sites - that having the highest levels of ethnic and religious diversity - we find that democratic decision-making as well as information originating from outside the community promotes the cooperative behavior that underpins TURFs, a result that is robust to regressions controlling for individual and community attributes. The absence of treatment effects in the remaining two sites highlights that a set of formal rules may have different consequences in different communities, depending on underlying values and norms. |
| Keywords: | Framed field experiment,Commons dilemmas,Coral reefs,Self-governance |
| JEL: | C93 H43 L31 Q32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:16046&r=agr |