nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2016‒06‒14
100 papers chosen by
Angelo Zago
Università degli Studi di Verona

  1. Returns to Investment in Reducing Postharvest Food Losses and Increasing Agricultural Productivity Growth By Rosegrant, Mark; Magalhaes, Eduardo; Valmonte-Santos, Rowena Andrea; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
  2. Climate change interactions with agriculture, forestry sequestration, and food security By Pena-Levano, Luis M; Taheripour, Farzad; Tyner, Wallace E
  3. Farmers and their groves: How efficient are farms with forested land? By Klepacka, Anna M.; Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar
  4. Impact of modern irrigation on household production and welfare outcomes: Evidence from the PASIDP project in Ethiopia By Garbero, Alessandra; Songsermsawas, Tisorn
  5. Do Off-farm Work and Remittances affect Food Consumption Patterns? Evidence from Albania By Seidu, Ayuba; Onel, Gulcan; Moss, Charles B.; Seale, James L.
  6. The effects of climate change on groundwater extraction for agriculture and land-use change By Bertone Oehninger, Ernst; Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia; Sanchirico, James; Springborn, Michael
  7. Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Production and Land Use By Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas; Lammers, Richard; Prusevich, Alexander; Baldos, Uris; Grogan, Danielle; Frolking, Steve
  8. Analysis of Energy and Agricultural Commodity Markets with the Policy Mandated: A Vine Copula-based ARMA-EGARCH Model By Chen, Kuan-Ju; Chen, Kuan-Heng
  9. Days Suitable for Fieldwork in the US Corn Belt:Climate, Soils and Spatial Heterogeneity By Gramig, Benjamin M.; Yun, Seong Do
  10. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES IN AGRICULTURE: ASSESSING THE IMPACTS ON SMALL FARMERS IN THE BRAZILIAN SERTÃO By Gori Maia, Alexandre; Cesano, Daniele; Miyamoto, Bruno C.B.; Eusébio, Gabriela dos Santos; Andrade, Patricia
  11. Water in the Balance: The Impact of Water Infrastructure on Agricultural Adaptation to Rainfall Shocks in India By Zaveri, Esha; Wrenn, Douglas H.; Fisher-Vanden, Karen
  12. Hunger for meat: can animal protein-based taxation reverse the trend? By Caillavet, France; Fadhuile, Adelaide; Nichèle, Véronique
  13. Perceived, measured, and estimated soil fertility in east Africa: Implications for farmers and researchers By Berazneva, Julia; McBride, Linden; Sheahan, Megan; Guerena, David
  14. Gender, generation and cereal crop intensification in Mali By Smale, Melinda; Kergna, Alpha; Theriault, Veronique; Assima, Amidou; Keita, Naman
  15. Do Direct Payments and Crop Insurance Influence Commercial Farm Survival and Decisions to Expand? By Burns, Christopher; Prager, Daniel
  16. Is MyPlate really Affordable? An analysis of SNAP Benefits and the actual cost of eating according to the dietary guidelines By Mulik, Kranti; Haynes Maslow, Lindsey
  17. Eco-Labelling and the Gains from Agricultural and Food Trade: A Ricardian Approach By Heerman, Kari E.R.; Sheldon, Ian
  18. Does Credit Access Improve Firm Output? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Bangladesh By Jimi, Nusrat A; Kumbhakar, Subal; Nikolov, Plamen V; Malek, Mohammad Abdul
  19. Potential Poverty Effects of the Special Safeguard Mechanism: the Case of Wheat By Countryman, Amanda; Ufer, Danielle
  20. Understanding compliance in programs promoting conservation agriculture: Modeling a case study in Malawi By Ward, Patrick S.; Bell, Andrew R.; Droppelmann, Klaus; Benton, Tim
  21. Economic and land use impacts of improving water use efficiency in South Asia By Taheripour, Farzad; Hertel, Thomas; Sahin, Sebnem
  22. Adaptation to Natural Disasters Through the Agricultural Land Rental Market: Evidence from Bangladesh By Eskander, Shaikh; Barbier, Edward
  23. A question of integrity: Variants of Bt cotton, pesticides, and productivity in Pakistan By Ma, Xingliang; Smale, Melinda; Spielman, David; Zambrano, Patricia; Nazli, Hina; Zaidi, Fatima
  24. Cost of Risk Exposure, Farm Disinvestment and Adaptation to Climate Uncertainties: The Case of Arable Farms in the EU By Ayenew, Habtamu Yesigat; Sauer, Johannes; Abate-Kassa, Getachew
  25. Accounting for farm heterogeneity in the assessment of agricultural policy impacts on structural change By Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F.
  26. Evolution and impact of EU aid for food and nutrition security: a review By Lara Cockx; Nathalie Francken
  27. Interaction of biofuel, food security, indirect land use change and greenhouse mitigation policies in the European Union By Pena-Levano, Luis M; Rasetti, Michele; Melo, Grace
  28. Irrigation, Risk Aversion, and Water Rights under Water Supply Uncertainty By Li, Man; Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W.
  29. A controversial debate between financial speculation and changes in agricultural commodity spot prices By Serrao, Amilcar
  30. Does time spent preparing food affect consumers’ food choices? By Short, Gianna; Peterson, Hikaru
  31. Foodborne Illness Outbreaks, Collective Reputation, and Voluntary Adoption of Industry-wide Food Safety Protocols by Fruit and Vegetable Growers By Adalja, Aaron; Lichtenberg, Erik
  32. Effectiveness of International Food Safety Train-The Trainer Programs in Good Agricultural and Aqua cultural Practices: Evidence from Survey Instruments By Narrod, Clare A.; Miller, Mark; Chfadi, Tarik
  33. Agricultural productivity and non-farm employment : evidence from Bangladesh By Shilpi,Forhad J.; Emran,Shahe
  34. Implications of Seasonal Price and Productivity Changes at the Household Level in Uganda - A Heterogeneous Agent Approach By Musumba, Mark; Zhang, Yuquan W.
  35. Novel IPM Intervention for West Africa: Smallholder Farmers’ Preferences for Biological versus Synthetic Control Strategies for Cowpea Pests By Agyekum, Michael; Donovan, Cynthia; Lupi, Frank
  36. The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration By Zhang, Yuquan W.; Mu, Jianhong E.; Musumba, Mark
  37. Small farmers’ preferences for the design of certification schemes: Does gender matter? By Meemken, Eva-Maria; Veettil, Prakashan Chellattan; Qaim, Matin
  38. Impact of Off-Farm Labor Supply and Government Subsidy on Korean Farmland Value By Joo, Hyunjeong; Mishra, Ashok
  39. Farmers’ Risk Perceptions of Intensified Conservation Practices On-Farm By Ramsey, Steven M.; Bergtold, Jason S.; Canales, Elizabeth; Williams, Jeff R.
  40. `Land Grab' or Development Opportunity?: The Effect of Transnational Farmland Investments on the Ghanaian Economy By Choi, Donggul
  41. Bt cotton and employment effects for female agricultural laborers in Pakistan: An application of double-hurdle model By Kouser, Shahzad; Qaim, Matin; Abedullah
  42. The Potential to Use Futures and Options to Manage Crop Insurance Losses By Driedger, Jonathon; Porth, Lysa; Boyd, Milton
  43. Tradeoffs among multiple ecosystem services and economic returns from groundwater depletion on a farm landscape By Kovacs, Kent; Popp, Michael; Xu, Ying; West, Grant
  44. Does Market Access Mitigate the Impact of Seasonality on Child Growth? Panel data evidence from northern Ethiopia By Kibrewossen Abay; Kalle Hirvonen; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti
  45. Segmenting Wine Market: California Red and White Wine Retail Prices in British Columbia By Carew, Richard C.; Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Meng, Ting
  46. spatial analysis of determinants of dairy farmers' adoption of best management practices for water protection By Yang, Wei
  47. Mitigating Feedstock Supply Risk in Corn Stover Biofuel Production By Rosburg, Alicia; Miranowski, John; McFadden, Jonathan
  48. U.S. Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification By Jha, Jaya; Roe, Terry L.
  49. Welfare-environmental quality tradeoffs of promoting use of certified seed potato in tropical highlands of Africa: Evidence from central highlands of Kenya By Okello, Julius J; Zhou, Yuan; Kwikiriza, Norman; Ogutu, Sylvester; Barker, Ian; Schulte-Geldermann, Elmar; Ahmed, Justin; Atieno, Elly
  50. Drivers of bioenergy crop adoption: evidence from Ethiopia's castor bean contract farming By Negash, Martha
  51. Optimal Management of Runoff Reservoir Supply: The Case of Tono Reservoir in Northern Ghana By Kemeze, Francis H.; Miranda, Mario J.; Kuwornu, John; Amin-Somuah, Henry
  52. Economic Design for the Supply Side of Agricultural Insurance Markets By Bulut, Harun
  53. Price Impacts of Tasting Notes Across Wine Segments By Chen, Kuan-Ju; McCluskey, Jill J.
  54. Will digital technologies transform agriculture in developing countries ? By Deichmann,Uwe; Goyal,Aparajita; Mishra,Deepak K.
  55. TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY OF DAIRY FARMS IN URUGUAY: A STOCHASTIC PRODUCTION FRONTIER ANALYSIS By Perez-Quesada, Gabriela; García-Suárez, Federico
  56. Are all farms better-off growing organic? An unconditional quantile regression approach By Khanal, Aditya; Mishra, Ashok
  57. The Economic Cost of Including the Indirect Land Use Factor in Low Carbon Fuel Policy: Efficiency and Distributional Implications By Khanna, Madhu; Wang, Weiwei; Hudiburg, Tara; DeLucia, Evan
  58. Children’s purchase behavior in the snack market: Can branding or low price motivate a healthy choice? By Hartmann, Monika; Cash, Sean B.; Yeh, Ching-Hua; Landwehr, Stefanie C.; McAlister, Anna R.
  59. TTIP and agricultural trade: The case of tariff elimination and pesticide policy cooperation By Xiong, Bo; Beghin, John
  60. Are Futures Prices Endogenous to Global Supply Analysis of Agricultural Commodities? New Empirical Evidence By Iqbal, Md Zabid
  61. Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial-Dynamic Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework By Hrozencik, Robert Aaron; Manning, Dale
  62. Consumers' Preferences and Motives for Pro-environment Purchasing Behavior: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Choice Experiment By Liu, Qing; Zhou, Jiehong; Yan, Zhen
  63. Modelling farm-household level impacts of fertilizer subsidy programs on food security: The case of Ethiopia By Kamel, Louhichi; Laura, Riesgo; Sergio, Gomez y Paloma
  64. Did you really get the message? Using text reminders to stimulate adoption of agricultural technologies By Larochelle, Catherine; Alwang, Jeffrey; Travis, Elli
  65. Natural Hedge Effects on Revenue Stability and Crop Insurance Decisions By Motamed, Mesbah; O'Donoghue, Erik
  66. When Not in the Best of Worlds: Uncertainty and Forest Carbon Sequestration By Eriksson, Mathilda; Vesterberg, Anders
  67. Analysis of Farmers’ Willingness to Adopt Genetically Modified Insect-resistant Rice in China By Ruomei Xu; Yanrui Wu; Jingdong Luan
  68. Impact of Organic, Sustainable, and Biodynamic Wine Making Practices on Wine Prices By Waldrop, Megan; McCluskey, Jill
  69. STRATEGIC ACQUISITIONS: DETERMINANTS OF CHINESE OUTWARD DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE AGRIFOOD INDUSTRY By Boys, Kathryn; Kandilov, Ivan
  70. Attribute non-attendance or attribute-level non-attendance? A choice experiment application on extra virgin olive oil By Caputo, Vincenzina; Nayga, M. Rodolfo Jr.; Sacchi, Giovanna; Scarpa, Riccardo
  71. Co-movements of Energy-Bioenergy-Agricultural Commodity Prices: New Empirical Evidence from the USA By Iqbal, Md Zabid
  72. Dynamic Heterogeneous Agent Models of Default on Farm Real Estate Loans By Wu, Yifei; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Brewer, Brady E.
  73. Methods of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus By Aiko Endo; Kimberly Burnett; Pedcris M. Orencio; Terukazu Kumazawa; Christopher Wada; Akira Ishii; Izumi Tsurita; Makoto Taniguchi
  74. Dynamics of smallholder participation in horticultural export chains –Evidence from Ecuador- By Romero, Cristina; Wollni, Meike
  75. Food Price, Firm Productivity and Market Structure in Indonesian Food and Beverages Industry By He, Xi
  76. Could climate change affect government expenditures? Early evidence from the Russian regions By Leppänen, Simo; Solanko, Laura; Kosonen, Riitta
  77. Measuring price discovery in agricultural markets By Pavlova, Evgenia; Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von
  78. Rethinking Demand for A Varied Diet: The Role of Convenience Foods in Diversity Indices By Leschewski, Andrea; Weatherspoon, Dave
  79. Direct Measurement of Efficiency Gains from Land Titling: PROCEDE's Effect upon the Productivity of Mexican Agriculture By McArthur, Travis
  80. Linking agricultural subsidies and ambient water quality to reduce nutrient loss By Palm-Forster, Leah H.; Suter, Jordan F.; Messer, Kent D.
  81. Determinants of changes in youth and women agricultural labor participation in selected African countries By Maiga, Eugenie W. H.
  82. Measuring U.S. Agriculture Productivity: Primal vs. Dual Approaches By Plastina, Alejandro; Lence, Sergio H.
  83. Crop Insurance in India: Drivers and Impact By KS, Aditya; Khan, Tajuddin; Kishore, Avinash
  84. The Great Recession and Vertical Price Transmission in the U.S Beef Market By Darbandi, Elham; Saghaian, Sayed
  85. Does off-farm employment affect the choice of land rental Duration? By Li, Dengwang; Bi, Xiang; Zhang, Wendong; Tian, Xiaohui; Qiu, Huanguang
  86. Chinese Consumer Preference for Red Wine Attributes By Qing, Ping; Hu, Wuyang
  87. Intra-Household Nutritional Inequities in Rural Bangladesh By D'Souza, Anna; Tandon, Sharad
  88. On the causal relationship between nutrition and economic Growth: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa By Ogundari, Kolawole; Aromolaran, Adebayo
  89. Arbitrage and Corruption in Food Subsidy Programs: Evidence from India’s Public Distribution System By Chakrabarti, Suman; Kishore, Avinash; Roy, Devesh
  90. Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Transportation Costs: Mississippi River Barge Rates By Wetzstein, Brian; Florax, Raymond; Foster, Ken; Binkley, James
  91. Do Large School Food Authorities Pay Less for Food used in the National School Lunch By Ollinger, Michael; Guthrie, Joanne; Peo, Audrey
  92. GMO Contamination Price Effects in the U.S. Corn Market: StarLink and MIR162 By Han, Xue; Philip, Garcia
  93. Consumer Willingness to Pay for Food Safety Interventions: The Role of Message Framing and Involvement By Britwum, Kofi; Yiannaka, Amalia
  94. How Much Do Japanese Really Care about Food Origin? A Case of Beef Bowl Shop By Yamaura, Koichi; Peterson, Hikaru
  95. Will Fixing Disparities in Food Access Reduce Health Inequity? By Colby, Scott
  96. Analyzing sugarcane production contracts in Brazil: What do the farmers really want? By Sant'Anna, Ana Claudia; Bergtold, Jason; Caldas, Marcellus; Granco, Gabriel
  97. China’s Regional Agricultural Productivity Growth: Catching Up or Lagging Behind By Wang, Sun Ling; Huang, Jikun; Wang, Xiaobing; Tuan, Francis
  98. Time Preference, Nutrition Education, and the Body Mass Index By Yang, Yanliang; Davis, George C.; Han, Dae Hee
  99. An Alternative Approach to Measuring Drought in the Corn Belt By Giri, Anil; Johnson, Bruce; Supalla, Raymond
  100. The Effects of American Diets on Food System Energy Use By Rehkamp, Sarah; Canning, Patrick

  1. By: Rosegrant, Mark; Magalhaes, Eduardo; Valmonte-Santos, Rowena Andrea; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
    Abstract: In this paper, we assess the levels of infrastructure investment and rates for return on investments to reduce postharvest losses (PHL). Food security impacts and rates of return to reducing PHL are compared to rates of return to productivity-increasing research and development (R&D) investment. First we undertake of review of the literature on the magnitude of PHL. Next we undertake an econometric analysis of the impact of infrastructure investments on PHL using a panel data set. Third, we quantify the investments required for any given level of PHL reduction by combining marginal effect analysis based on the econometric estimation with data on unit costs for specific infrastructural variables. Fourth, we undertake a cost-benefit analysis of the required infrastructural investments to assess whether or not significant efforts in PHL reduction are economically feasible; and compare these to the rates of return to investments in R&D. These scenarios show that investment in infrastructure for PHL reduction contributes to lower food prices, higher food availability, and improved food security, and has positive economic rates of return. However, improvements in food security and marginal returns to investment in agricultural research are considerably higher for investment in agricultural research than for investment in PHL reduction. Reductions in PHL are not a low-cost alternative to productivity growth for achieving food security. Rather, reduction in PHL through improved infrastructure requires large public investments and is complementary to investments in long-term productivity growth to achieve food security.
    Keywords: Post-harvest losses, infrastructure investment, food security, agricultural productivity growth, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235879&r=agr
  2. By: Pena-Levano, Luis M; Taheripour, Farzad; Tyner, Wallace E
    Abstract: We evaluate the impacts of using carbon taxes and forest carbon sequestration to achieve 50% emission reductions. We consider four cases – carbon tax-only, combination of a carbon tax and equivalent sequestration subsidy, and the inclusion of crop yield shocks due to climate change in both policies (with 50% emissions reduction). We developed a new version of a computable general equilibrium model to do the analysis. We find that the tax/subsidy case causes substantial increases in food prices because of land competition between forest sequestration and crop production. When the climate induced yield shocks are added, the food price increases are huge – so large that it is clear this approach could not be adopted in the real world. We also compare a case with no mitigation and crop yield shocks appropriate for that case. The results suggest economic well-being falls more in that case than with 50% emission reductions.
    Keywords: Forestry, carbon sequestration, food security, general equilibrium, climate change, crop yield, mitigation methods, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Q15, R52, Q54,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235771&r=agr
  3. By: Klepacka, Anna M.; Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar
    Abstract: This study examines the performance of the forested land ownership by farmers in Poland this paper compares the efficiency of farms reporting a portion of their operated land as a forest with those that do not own any forested land. Using FADN data, the study focuses first on cost efficiency, which was estimated using the fixed effects stochastic cost frontier model (Kumbakhar and Knox Lovell, 2003). A generalized multiproduct translog cost function (Caves, Christensen, and Tretheway, 1980) was selected to represent the deterministic part of the cost function because it imposes fewer a-priori restrictions than other functional forms commonly used for the task. The efficiency scores (i.e., the fixed effects) were subject to further analysis, to establish the differences between farms with and without forest land (where forest land was measured as the proportion of the total farm area that was under forest land). The results strongly indicated, both in aggregate and considering estimates by farm type, that most of the farms with forest land were relatively less efficient than farms without them. Because the average farm size has been steadily increasing (although it remains relatively small) in response to a decreasing farm numbers in Poland, while the commercial agricultural production contracts in some peripheral areas without creating a shortage of food or agricultural commodities, there is an opportunity to reallocate land from its current uses to reforestation on farms already managing small groves. The speed of reallocating land will, however, depend greatly on ability of forested land to generate a stream of income. Given the FADN data, the transfer of all remaining agricultural land operated by farms with forested acreage to reforestation would add about 170 thousand hectares of privately owned forests in Poland. Additionally, the transition of farms owing woodlands may lead to their new role in the national environmental policy and efforts to cut the greenhouse gas emissions.
    Keywords: Cost efficiency, FADN data, forest ownership, renewable energy policy, reforestation, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q15, Q23, D24, Q59,
    Date: 2016–05–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235740&r=agr
  4. By: Garbero, Alessandra; Songsermsawas, Tisorn
    Abstract: Investments in irrigation have been shown to improve farmers' agricultural outcomes and alleviate poverty. Specifically in areas where irrigation coverage is low such as Sub-Saharan Africa, the returns to investments in irrigation can be substantial. Our study provides an example of such investment, the Participatory Small-Scale Irrigation Development Programme (PASIDP) in Ethiopia. Combining a primary household survey with detailed geographical information, we estimate the impact of the project on agricultural production and households expenditures using a novel quasi-experimental approach. PASIDP beneficiaries benefit from the project mainly through improved crop yields, which help raise crop revenues, and allow farmers to switch from relying mainly consuming their own produce to purchasing greater amount of food from the market. However, we do not find increases in the area of land under cultivation or expenditures on non-food items among the PASIDP beneficiaries. Although we rule out that the project may have targeted specific farmers based on their agricultural performance, summary statistics indicate notable differences between beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries, an indication that the project might have targeted specific locations. Systematic targeting of a project is often favoured by project implementers either to ensure the highest rate of success or to deliver the project to those who may need it the most, but it may limit the generalizability of the project, which might be crucial in the efforts to scale up the project in the future.
    Keywords: irrigation, agriculture, Africa, Ethiopia, impact evaluation, participatory adoption, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development, O13, Q15, Q16,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235949&r=agr
  5. By: Seidu, Ayuba; Onel, Gulcan; Moss, Charles B.; Seale, James L.
    Abstract: Full-time working within agriculture is now relatively uncommon; many farm households are still active in the off-farm labor markets, in and outside the local economy. This paper examines food consumption patterns and food security implications of off-farm income in rural transitional Albania. We estimate the impact of a portfolio of off-farm incomes on food consumption patterns using Working-Leser framework, under two-stage budgeting, to isolate the off-farm income effect from the pure expenditure elasticities. The results indicate that expenditure share on FAFH responds positively and elastically to increases in off-farm wage income, but negatively and inelastically to private remittances. We find the opposite impact on expenditure share on FAH, however not statistically significant. A disaggregated FAH analysis reveals that off-farm wage income is associated with reduction in household’s expenditure share on calorie-dense foods, such as cereals, and fats and oil. We find the opposite, and significant effect for remittances. These findings should be of interest to policymakers in Albania, especially in designing poverty and nutrition programs.
    Keywords: Off-farm work, remittances, income elasticities, nonlinear Engel curves, rural Albania., Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Labor and Human Capital, D12, D13,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235851&r=agr
  6. By: Bertone Oehninger, Ernst; Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia; Sanchirico, James; Springborn, Michael
    Abstract: Climate change has the potential to impact groundwater availability in several ways. For example, it may cause farmers to change the crops they plant or the amount of water they apply, both of which have implications for water availability. Climate change also affect water availability directly by changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns. In this paper, we analyze the effects of changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity on groundwater extraction for agriculture using an econometric model of a farmer’s irrigation water pumping decision that accounts for both the intensive (water use) and extensive margins (crop acreage). Our research focuses on the groundwater used for agriculture in the High Plains (Ogallala) Aquifer system of the Midwestern United States. We find that changes in climate variables will influence crop selection decisions, crop acreage allocation decisions, technology adoption, and the demand for water by farmers. We also find that such changes in behavior can affect the diversity of crops planted, potentially impacting agricultural biodiversity.
    Keywords: groundwater, agriculture, climate change, land-use change, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Q15, Q54,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235724&r=agr
  7. By: Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas; Lammers, Richard; Prusevich, Alexander; Baldos, Uris; Grogan, Danielle; Frolking, Steve
    Abstract: Human activities are increasingly leading to overuse of surface water and nonrenewable groundwater, challenging the capacity of water resources to ensure food security and continuous growth of the economy. Adaptation policies targeting specifically water security can easily overlook its interaction with other sustainability metrics and unanticipated local responses to the larger-scale policy interventions. Using a recently developed global partial equilibrium, grid-resolving model, nick-named SIMPLE-on-a-Grid and coupling it with the global Water Balance Model, we simulate the impacts of reducing unsustainable irrigation water withdrawals on land use change and food supply, under a variety of future (2050) scenarios with and without adaptations. Comparisons are made among three policy interventions: inter-basin water transfers, investments in agricultural productivity-enhancing technologies, and the promotion of virtual water trade. Although each of these scenarios affects regional food supply in a similar fashion, their implications for land cover change, carbon emissions and global food security are quite different. By allowing for a systematic comparison of these alternative adaptations to future scarcity, the global gridded modeling approach offers unique insights into the multiscale nature of the water scarcity challenge.
    Keywords: sustainable development, irrigation scarcity, land use change, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, O13, Q18, Q25,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235503&r=agr
  8. By: Chen, Kuan-Ju; Chen, Kuan-Heng
    Abstract: The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 states an increase in ethanol production to 36 billion gallons per year by 2022. Biofuels mainly are produced from agricultural commodities, so that increasing demand of biofuels would have an impact on agricultural commodity prices. The linear relationships between crude oil prices and prices for agricultural commodities are well documented, but not appropriate to explain the asymmetric dependency. Vine copula modeling which is used in this study can extend to higher dimensions easily and provide a flexible measurement to capture an asymmetric dependence among commodities. The purpose of this study is to analyze the degree and the dependence structure of commodities with the policy effect of EISA 2007 along the biofuel supply chain in the United States agricultural market. We employ vine copulas in order to better capture an asymmetric dependence among commodities using six U.S. agricultural commodities’ and crude oil. The empirical results provide that vine Copula-based ARMA-EGARCH (1,1) is an appropriate model with the skewed Student t innovations to analyze returns dependency of crude oil and agricultural commodities before EISA 2007 (January 1st, 2003- January 17th, 2007) and after EISA 2007 (January 18th, 2007-December 31st, 2012). Our findings on the relationship among agricultural commodities can provide policymakers and industry participants appropriate strategies for risk management, hedging strategies, and asset pricing.
    Keywords: Dependence, Agricultural commodity, Oil future, EISA 2007, Copula, Time Series, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, G13, Q11, Q13,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236028&r=agr
  9. By: Gramig, Benjamin M.; Yun, Seong Do
    Abstract: Days suitable for field work (DSFW) is an important piece of data for production agriculture and agricultural extension focused on practical decision making about investment in farm machinery and cropping systems management. It is, however, noteworthy that there has been limited attention paid to DSFW. To fill this gap, this study tries to answer two research questions: (1) what is the trend in DSFW during the planting and harvest period from 1980-2010? (2) what is the accuracy of a predictive econometric model of DSFW based on agro-environmental data? To tackle the economic dimensions of DSFW, we model DSFW consistent with two major approaches in climate change impacts on agriculture: the Ricardian approach and the panel estimation approach. We first specify the regression model of DSFW in panel model from two conceptual approaches: the response function and the factor demand function of cost minimization. Both approaches provide consistent regression specification of fixed and random effects models. We construct an unbalanced panel of weekly DSFW observations, historic weather data, and soil data in five Corn Belt States for 1980-2010 at the Crop Reporting District (CRD) level to implement out-of-sample and in-sample prediction analysis. The results show that the random effects model is the most suitable model to perform climate change response analysis for our data. This paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, the analytical derivation of two econometric interpretations of DSFW and link them to econometric model specification strategies are easily extended to other agro-environmental analysis. Second, the estimation results for panel models empirically demonstrate that random effects model could be proper model specification taking into account soil effects. Lastly, we discuss that DSFW could be an important constraints for policy corresponding to climate change and its adaptation.
    Keywords: Days Suitable for Fieldwork, Soil Trafficability, Heterogeneity, Panel Estimation Approach, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Q10, Q15, Q54,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235726&r=agr
  10. By: Gori Maia, Alexandre; Cesano, Daniele; Miyamoto, Bruno C.B.; Eusébio, Gabriela dos Santos; Andrade, Patricia
    Abstract: The Brazilian Sertão is the most populous semiarid region in the world, and faces the highest rates of poverty and food insecurity in Brazil. Irregular rainfall and climate variability make these social constraints even more difficult to be solved in the short term, since basic economic activities in the region, as dairy farming and subsistence agriculture, tend to be mainly affected by recurrent and prolonged droughts. This study analyzes the impacts of climate conditions on the agricultural production and how adaptative strategies may alleviate such effects. First, it analyzes the dynamics of climate variables between 1974 and 2013 in the semi-arid region of the State of Bahia, the largest and most populous State of Sertão. Secondly, based on a panel with climatic and production data, it assesses the ex-poste impacts of these climate variables on the agricultural production of the municipalities in the region. Thirdly, it estimates the relation between several adaptive strategies and the agricultural family farmers’ production, based on microdata of the Brazilian Agricultural Census for small farmers in the region. The study evaluates four main agricultural productions: milk, cattle, goat, sheep and corn. The final and general aim of this study is to discuss the effectiveness of strategies for small farmers which would create climate resilience and attenuate the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural production of this vulnerable region.
    Keywords: natural resource economics, environmental policy, rural development, caatinga, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics, Q18, Q51, Q54,
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236255&r=agr
  11. By: Zaveri, Esha; Wrenn, Douglas H.; Fisher-Vanden, Karen
    Abstract: Investments in water infrastructure remain key to climate change adaptation plans in many countries, and rank high in adaptation costs for developing countries (Narain et al., 2011). In this paper, we use district-level panel data from 1970-2005 across India’s major agricultural states to investigate the role played by subsidized access to electricity, groundwater wells, tank and dam projects in mediating the vulnerabilities associated with monsoonal variation. We focus on wheat, a staple of India’s food supply, as it requires irrigation and represents a significant portion of India’s total agricultural output. Results show that the impact of negative precipitation shocks is significantly dampened when a particular district has access to a more reliable source of irrigation – e.g., access to tubewells helps to dampen the impact of negative precipitation shocks on irrigation decisions associated with wheat, while upstream dams do not significantly contribute to this dampening effect. In contrast, having access to dugwells exacerbates the impact of a fall in monsoon precipitation curtailing irrigation of wheat. Our results suggest that historical agricultural policies that increased access to tubewells and the subsequent electrification of regions naturally endowed with more groundwater have equipped farmers with the ability to withstand monsoonal shocks and fluctuations.
    Keywords: Water infrastructure, Adaptation, Agriculture, Irrigation, Indian Monsoon, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, O13, Q15, Q25, Q54, Q56,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236216&r=agr
  12. By: Caillavet, France; Fadhuile, Adelaide; Nichèle, Véronique
    Abstract: Climate change is in the agenda of food policy. Livestock is recognized to be by far the biggest contributor to food-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). This article examines the potential impact of an environmental tax at the consumption level on GHGE mitigation and its nutritional consequences on diet quality and the balance between plant based and animal proteins. We consider a carbon taxation policy proportional to emissions, with a focus on methodological aspects by introducing the use of different functional units for environmental taxation: the usual tax rate per weight of product, and a tax rate according to the nutritional unit of per animal protein. We use scanner data on food purchases of French households from 1998 to 2010. Using price elasticities allows to study substitutions and complementarities between 21 food groups clearly identified according to their environmental and nutritional content. Our results indicate that taxation according to the emissions potential of the animal protein reaches a higher reduction of GHGE than on a per weight basis. Moreover, nutritional adequacy to guidelines is overall maintained. However animal protein replacement by vegetal proteins is not achieved by such taxation policies. This debate can be crucial for the efficiency of food taxation to improve sustainability.
    Keywords: carbon tax, food policy, functional unit, environment, nutrition, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, H23, D12,
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235982&r=agr
  13. By: Berazneva, Julia; McBride, Linden; Sheahan, Megan; Guerena, David
    Abstract: Bringing together emerging lessons from biophysical and social sciences as well as newly available data, we take stock of what can be learned about the relationship among perceived soil fertility, measured soil fertility, and farmer management practices in east Africa. We identify the correlates of Kenyan and Tanzanian maize farmers’ reported perceptions of soil fertility and assess the extent to which these subjective assessments reflect measured soil chemistry. Our results offer evidence that farmers base their perceptions of soil quality and soil type on crop yields. We also find that, in Kenya, farmers’ reported soil type is a reasonable predictor of several objective soil fertility indicators while farmer-reported soil quality is not. In addition, in exploring the extent to which publicly available soil data are adequate to capture local soil chemistry realities, we find that there is still immense value to the time-consuming collection of soil samples where highly accurate soil measures are important to research objectives. However, in the estimation of agricultural production or profit functions, where the focus is on averages and where there is low variability in the soil properties, there may be limited value to including any soil information in the analysis.
    Keywords: natural resource management, soil fertility, agricultural productivity, farmers’ perceptions, Kenya, Tanzania, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, O13, Q12, Q24, Q56,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235466&r=agr
  14. By: Smale, Melinda; Kergna, Alpha; Theriault, Veronique; Assima, Amidou; Keita, Naman
    Abstract: In Mali, stagnating yields of dryland cereals—excepting maize—are often attributed to limited use of fertilizer and declining land quality. In the Sudanian Savanna of Mali, as elsewhere in the West African Sahel, dryland cereals are grown on fields managed collectively and individually by extended families that span multiple generations and several households, headed by a responsible elder. The roles of women and youth in farm production are changing. We contribute to the empirical literature on agricultural intensification in this region by exploring intra-household differences in fertilizer use. We test differences by: 1) plot management type (collective, individual); 2) gender of plot manager given plot management type; and 3) and plot manager status in the family (youth, relationship to head). We compare findings between major cereal crops (maize, sorghum). Fertilizer use is greater on individually managed plots, which is explained primarily by use on sorghum fields allocated to women, which are very small, frequently intercropped with groundnuts, and serve as “food security” reserves. Use rates in maize production are lower on individual plots managed by men who are not household heads. Further, use is lower on plots managed by youth under 25 years of age (specifically, maize plots) and sons (in particular, sorghum plots). On sorghum plots, wives of the head have higher intensity of fertilizer use on sorghum plots than other managers. Findings have implications for the design of extension programs to support inclusion of women and younger generations in the intensification of dryland cereals production.
    Keywords: Mali, fertilizer, adoption, gender, youth, household farm, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, International Development,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235544&r=agr
  15. By: Burns, Christopher; Prager, Daniel
    Abstract: This paper seeks to understand the effect of crop insurance and direct payments on farm survival and growth, and how this effect differs by the economic size of the farm. Using data from the Agricultural Censuses of 2007 and 2012, along with additional county-level data, we estimate a three stage model that accounts for sample selection bias and the endogeneity of the choice to purchase crop insurance. We also control for characteristics of the principal operator, farm household, and farm operation. Our preliminary results show that government policies in place over the period from 2007 to 2012 played a small but important role in the survival and growth of US commercial farms.
    Keywords: direct payments, crop insurance, farm survival, growth, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Production Economics, Q12, Q18,
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235693&r=agr
  16. By: Mulik, Kranti; Haynes Maslow, Lindsey
    Abstract: The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is a vital federal food assistance program under The Farm Bill that offers benefits usable as cash for the purchase of food by lower-income individuals. For lower-income families, SNAP benefits help provide assistance to consume heathy foods. However, current benefits from SNAP are insufficient to support a healthy diet recommended by federal nutrition guidelines (MyPlate). We estimate the funds required to support a MyPlate diet and the current budgetary shortfall in the SNAP program needed for recipients to adhere to a nutritionally sound diet.
    Keywords: SNAP, MyPlate, Budgetary shortfall, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235924&r=agr
  17. By: Heerman, Kari E.R.; Sheldon, Ian
    Abstract: Following a modern Ricardian approach, trade in environmental products with eco‐labelling is modelled. Based on the model, expressions are derived for the share of products an importer purchases from a specific exporter for low‐cost and environmentally‐friendly technologies. It is then shown that, using bilateral trade and production data, the share equation for low‐cost‐technologies can be estimated, from which parameters describing trade costs and average productivity can then be retrieved. Using the latter parameters, it is also shown how the share equation for environmentally‐friendly technologies can then be used to retrieve a parameter describing eco‐labelling costs. The consumer and environmental gains from eco‐labelling are also analyzed, along with a discussion and comparison of the effects of mutual recognition versus harmonization of countries’ eco‐labelling regimes.
    Keywords: trade, trade costs, eco-labeling, trade liberalization, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, F11, F14, F15, Q17, Q56,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235973&r=agr
  18. By: Jimi, Nusrat A; Kumbhakar, Subal; Nikolov, Plamen V; Malek, Mohammad Abdul
    Abstract: Abstract: Poor financial environment of rural developing economy leads to underinvestment and inefficiency of marginal and small-scale farm households. Development interventions for providing improved market access and credit at subsidized interest rate to small farm households are therefore considered as the preconditions in the transformation process of rural agrarian economy. Hence, the question of whether access to resources influences farm households’ production decisions, performance and efficiency is very important. In this paper, we attempt to estimate the impact of a subsidized credit on farm output and efficiency of small and marginal rice farmers of Bangladesh. Using survey data of a field experimental study, we show that relaxing the credit constraint has significant positive impact on farm output and efficiency. On an average, small-scale rice farms with access to subsidized credit are found to be 13% more efficient than farms with no credit access. The increase is 76% on average when we use the randomized access to credit as instrument for farm credit. We also examine the impact heterogeneity of access to credit by rice variety. We find that cultivation of modern Hybrid rice variety is significantly higher (on average 17%) for treatment farm households compare to the control group. However, we do not find much evidence of heterogeneous productivity impact of access to credit by HYV vs. Hybrid rice. Combining the results, we conclude that access to credit is effective in improving the overall output and efficiency of marginal and small-scale rice farm households. Thus, policies enhancing the credit access of marginal farmers are important for sustainable agricultural development of rural developing economy.
    Keywords: Randomize Control Trial, Credit, Small Farm, Efficiency, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, O13, Q14, E51,
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236230&r=agr
  19. By: Countryman, Amanda; Ufer, Danielle
    Abstract: Negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda include provisions for a Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM). The SSM would allow developing countries to invoke an additional duty on agricultural commodity imports when prices fall below a specified price trigger (P-SSM) or net imports rise above a specified quantity trigger (Q-SSM). This research uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework to evaluate the potential poverty effects of the SSM in agriculture. Some argue that the SSM is necessary to protect developing country domestic producers from the variability in world commodity markets; however, existing research suggests that widespread use of the SSM may destabilize world prices and increase the cost of commodity imports for domestic consumers. Many of the main arguments in favor of the SSM focus on the well-being of vulnerable agricultural producers, yet many rural residents in poor countries are net purchasers of food, and urban poverty is a growing concern. Therefore, the potential for an SSM policy to mitigate poverty vulnerability seems unlikely. This research aims to augment the existing literature regarding proposed trade reform in the WTO by investigating the potential implications of the SSM on poverty in Brazil and Mexico by implementing the policy in the global wheat market.
    Keywords: Special Safeguard Mechanism, World Trade Organization, International Trade, Trade Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236023&r=agr
  20. By: Ward, Patrick S.; Bell, Andrew R.; Droppelmann, Klaus; Benton, Tim
    Abstract: Land degradation and soil erosion have emerged as serious challenges to smallholder farmers throughout Southern Africa. To combat these challenges, conservation agriculture (CA) is widely promoted as a “sustainable” package of agricultural practices. Despite the many potential benefits of CA, however, adoption remains low. Yet relatively little is known about the decisionmaking process in choosing to adopt CA. This article attempts to fill this important knowledge gap by studying CA adoption in southern Malawi. Unlike what is implicitly assumed when these packages of practices are introduced, farmers view adoption as a series of independent decisions, rather than a single decision. Yet the adoption decisions are not wholly independent. We find strong evidence of interrelated decisions, particularly among mulching crop residues and practicing zero tillage, suggesting that mulching residues and intercropping or rotating with legumes introduces a multiplier effect on the adoption of zero tillage.
    Keywords: conservation agriculture, Malawi, technology adoption, multivariate probit, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235610&r=agr
  21. By: Taheripour, Farzad; Hertel, Thomas; Sahin, Sebnem
    Abstract: This paper uses an advanced computable general equilibrium model coupled with biophysical data on land and water resources by Agro-ecological zone at a river basin level to examine: 1) the economy-wide consequences of improvement in water use efficiency (WUE) in irrigation in South Asia; 2) the extent to which enhanced WUE can increase food production and improve food security in South Asia; and 3) how WUE in irrigation alters demand for water and affects land use across South Asia. Given that the extent to which the economies of South Asia can actually improve water use efficiency in irrigation is uncertain, it tests four different levels of efficiency gains in irrigation: 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%. It examines improvement in WUE under two alternative cost assumptions: 1) improvement in WUE is costless and 2) improvement in WUE needs additional investment. With a 10 percent improvement in WUE, the overall respective increases in food production during the time period 2008-2030 in India, Bangladesh and the rest of South Asia would be about $50.5 billion, $3.5 billion and $29.6 billion at 2007 constant prices. Improvement in WUE in irrigation reduces the rain-fed harvested areas and increases irrigated areas. A 10 percent improvement in WUE increases the areas of irrigated cropland by 6.1 million hectares, 296,000 hectares and 1.9 million hectares in India, Bangladesh and the rest of South Asia. When improvement in WUE is costless, the net present values of gains due to a 10 percent improvement in WUE (with a 3 percent social discount rate) are about $45.6 billion for India, $3.6 billion for Bangladesh, and $21.8 billion for rest of South Asia at 2007 constant prices for the time period of 2007-2030. Gains grow as the level of improvement in WUE increases. When improvement in WUE needs additional investments, welfare gains drop but gains in food production remain high.
    Keywords: South Asia, Agriculture, Water Use Efficiency, Irrigation, General Equilibrium, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Political Economy, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236063&r=agr
  22. By: Eskander, Shaikh; Barbier, Edward
    Abstract: We examine the effects of natural disaster exposure on agricultural households who simultaneously make rent-in and rent-out decisions in the land rental market. Our econometric approach accounts for the effects of disaster exposure both on the adjustments in the quantity of operated land (i.e. extensive margin) and agricultural yield conditional on the land quantity adjustments (i.e. intensive margin), based on selectivity-corrected samples of rental market participants. Employing a household survey dataset from Bangladesh, we find that farmers were able to ameliorate their losses from exposure to disasters by optimizing their operational farm size through participation in the land rental market. These results are robust to alternative specifications. This suggests that the land rental market may be an effective instrument reducing disaster risk, and post-disaster policies should take into account this role more systematically.
    Keywords: Bangladesh, Natural Disasters, Extensive and Intensive Margins, Land Rental Market., Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Risk and Uncertainty, Q24, Q54, D13, D64, Q15,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235648&r=agr
  23. By: Ma, Xingliang; Smale, Melinda; Spielman, David; Zambrano, Patricia; Nazli, Hina; Zaidi, Fatima
    Abstract: Bt cotton remains one of the most widely grown biotech crops among smallholder farmers in lower income countries, and numerous studies attest to its advantages. However, the effectiveness of Bt toxin, which depends on many technical constraints, is heterogeneous. In Pakistan, the diffusion of Bt cotton occurred despite a weak regulatory system and without seed quality control; whether or not many varieties sold as Bt are in fact Bt is also questionable. We utilize nationally representative sample data to test the effects of Bt cotton use on productivity. Unlike previous studies, we invoke several indicators of Bt identity: variety name, official approval status, farmer belief, laboratory tests of Bt presence in plant tissue, and biophysical assays measuring Bt effectiveness. Only farmer belief affects cotton productivity in the standard production model, which does not treat Bt appropriately as damage-abating. In the damage control framework, all Bt indicators reduce damage from pests. Biophysical indicators have the largest effect and official approval has the weakest. Findings have implications for impact measurement. For policymakers, they suggest the need, on ethical if not productivity grounds, to improve variety information and monitor variety integrity closer to point of sale.
    Keywords: Bt cotton, Pakistan, productivity, damage abatement, pesticides, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, International Development, Productivity Analysis, O33, Q12, Q16,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235527&r=agr
  24. By: Ayenew, Habtamu Yesigat; Sauer, Johannes; Abate-Kassa, Getachew
    Abstract: This paper investigates the implication of the cost of risk exposure on farm diversification, farm insurance premium payment and investment behavior in agriculture using an extensive Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) panel data of arable farms and weather data from 1989 to 2009 from France and Germany. For this purpose, we develop a two stage empirical model. First, we estimate the full profit moments distribution using the major inputs of production with quadratic function. Following this, we estimate the major responses of farmers for exposure to risk (farm diversification, investment decisions and purchase of insurance) via three-stage least squares (3SLS) estimation procedure. Our empirical analysis confirms that risk exposure measured with variance and skewness of farm profit can significantly influence the level of farm diversification, insurance premium payment and farm investment and disinvestment in arable farms in both countries. As these strategies seem not to be completely substitutable, this evidence can be used to support the discussion of improving the availability of market based instruments to strengthen the adaptive capacity of farms in the developing world. We do find an evidence that farms can see disinvestment as a response to extreme shock and risk exposure at least in a short run. Improving the adaptive capacity of farms might not only secure them pervasive impacts of risk exposure, but also can influence their investment and disinvestment behavior.
    Keywords: climate change, cost of risk, disinvestment, EU, Environmental Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235595&r=agr
  25. By: Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F.
    Abstract: This study aims at investigating the impact of agricultural policies on structural change process in the French farming sector. As farms may behave differently, a mixture modeling approach is applied in order to account for unobserved farm heterogeneity. A multinomial logit specification is used for the transition probabilities and the parameters of the model are estimated by maximum likelihood method using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. An empirical application to an unbalanced panel over 2000-2013 shows that the French farming sector consists of a mixture of two types of farms with transition processes very different. The results also show that the impact of subsidies from the First and the Second Pillars of the Common Agricultural policy (CAP) depends on the type membership of farms. I thus argued that agricultural policy assessment should pay more attention on potential unobserved heterogeneity in farms’ behavior.
    Keywords: Agricultural policy, EM algorithm, Farm structural change, Mixed Markov model, Unobserved heterogeneity, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q12, C15, D92,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235778&r=agr
  26. By: Lara Cockx; Nathalie Francken
    Abstract: In the aftermath of the world food price crisis, the issue of food and nutrition security has received a high level of political attention and the international donor community has repeatedly underlined its commitment to combat hunger in the world. In order to enhance the effectiveness of the international community’s efforts in addressing the widespread problem of malnutrition, we need to improve our knowledge on what activities donors are currently engaging in and which interventions have been shown to be successful. This paper offers both an overview of the aid for food and nutrition security landscape and how it has changed and an extensive review of the available evidence on the impact of a wide array of interventions aimed at addressing all four dimensions of food and nutrition security; availability, access, utilization and stability. We find that despite the renewed interest and elevated levels of funding for food and nutrition security assistance in developing countries, the empirical evidence base for the effectiveness of these interventions in improving beneficiaries’ food and nutrition security – although in several cases promising – is weak. In particular, the question whether different interventions improve the quality of food consumption and consequently nutrient intake and status, remains largely unanswered. Moreover, few studies assess longer-term effects and there exists relatively little rigorous evidence that compares different interventions. It is therefore strongly recommended to undertake additional research to improve the evidence base as this would allow researchers and policy makers to establish the type of approaches that improve food and nutrition security in the most efficient and cost-effective manner. Finally, in order to facilitate this process, there is a need for a clear and uniform definition of food and nutrition security assistance on the one hand as well as agreed upon, comprehensive indicators on the other hand.
    Date: 2016–05–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:540512&r=agr
  27. By: Pena-Levano, Luis M; Rasetti, Michele; Melo, Grace
    Abstract: The European Union is putting a lot of effort in mitigating climate change effects and lessen the dependence of fossil fuels. Several policies are being proposed in the Renewable Energy Directives (RED), such as increasing the share of renewable sources in fuel mix, specific increases in fuel production? and anti-dumping strategies. However, these policies raise concerns with respect to competition with food production, and indirect increases GHG emissions caused by land use change. Our study evaluates the RED policies together with additional climate mitigation policies using a computable general equilibrium modeling. Our results suggest that, for the case of the European Union (EU), an increase in biofuel production does not represent a threat in food security. In addition, we found that the land use change in the EU are modest compared to previous studies in developing regions. Our findings illustrate how the imposition of a regime can vary depending on the economic development of a region.
    Keywords: European biofuel policy, Biodiesel, GTAP-BIO-FCS, Land use change, GHG emissions, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development, Land Economics/Use, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, D58, Q16, Q58,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236075&r=agr
  28. By: Li, Man; Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W.
    Abstract: This article presents an economic model to examine optimal irrigated land allocation, water rights, and probability distribution of system risk in irrigation water supply. Results indicate that the allocative priority of water rights affects farmers’ irrigation decisions and the skewness of the distribution of the system risk is the key parameter to determine this impact. The optimal acreage of irrigated land increases with the level of the allocative priority when the system risk features a negatively skewed distribution. A higher degree of negative skewness increases divergence in farm income between senior and junior water users and consequently increases the shadow value of the allocative priority.
    Keywords: Water rights, skewness risk, water supply uncertainty, irrigated land allocation, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235753&r=agr
  29. By: Serrao, Amilcar
    Abstract: Some research works state that speculation with agricultural commodities on the futures market has risen agricultural commodity spot prices. This research work analyzes the causal relationships between spot prices of corn, wheat, and soybean and agricultural commodity futures trading activities. These causal relationships between agricultural commodity spot prices and financial variables are tested for Granger-causality. Model results show that causal relationships have been found among changes in “volume traded” and “open positions” of futures contracts and changes in spot prices for corn. These results do not show that financial speculation might be a major driver of rising agricultural commodity prices.
    Keywords: Financialization, Agricultural Commodity Spot Prices, Futures Markets, Granger-Causality Relations, Speculation, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, C58, D53, G12,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235638&r=agr
  30. By: Short, Gianna; Peterson, Hikaru
    Abstract: Decision-makers often rely on estimates of changes in demand in response to changes in prices to predict the potential effectiveness of a new policy, and an incorporation of the time cost associated with food could lead to better tailored policies. Yet, the cost of time is rarely incorporated into empirical consumer food demand studies due to both convention and the lack of suitable data. Aggregating food categories based on preparation time, demand elasticities for three categories of at-home food and food away from home are estimated. Findings suggest that demand for the category of “ready-to-cook foods” is the most elastic, implying that these foods could potentially be effective targets for price-based policies.
    Keywords: Consumer/Household Economics,
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236153&r=agr
  31. By: Adalja, Aaron; Lichtenberg, Erik
    Abstract: We examine theoretically and empirically the factors associated with commodity organizations’ voluntary adoption of stricter food safety guidelines. Our theoretical analysis finds that larger organizations are less likely to require members to invest in food safety procedures due to higher implementation costs. Recalls induce organizations to adopt stricter food safety standards only when expected future gains from improved product reputation outweigh the short run costs of implementing those standards. The same logic holds for organizations representing growers of a product with higher demand, e.g., a larger share of fruit and vegetable sales. Organizations whose members have a larger share of the market for their product are more likely to adopt stricter food safety guidelines when that investment induces members to increase output, a necessary condition for which is that members’ current food safety procedures are more protective than the industry average. Our econometric analysis finds that organizations with more members are less likely to adopt food safety guidelines for their members, as our theoretical analysis predicts. Organizations whose members account for a larger share of the market for their product and organizations for commodities representing larger shares of fruit and vegetable sales are more likely to implement food safety guidelines, consistent with considerations of long term profitability increases due to improved reputation for safety outweighing concerns about increases in cost of production. Organizations that have experienced negative shocks to reputation as measured by the number of Class I FDA recalls are also more likely to adopt food safety guidelines, again consistent with considerations of long term profitability due to improved reputation for safety outweighing concerns about increases in cost of production.
    Keywords: food safety, collective reputation, minimum quality standard, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Industrial Organization, Marketing, L14, L15, Q13,
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235865&r=agr
  32. By: Narrod, Clare A.; Miller, Mark; Chfadi, Tarik
    Keywords: M&E, food safety trainings, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,
    Date: 2016–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235969&r=agr
  33. By: Shilpi,Forhad J.; Emran,Shahe
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence on the impacts of agricultural productivity on employment growth and structural transformation of non-farm activities. To guide the empirical work, this paper develops a general equilibrium model that emphasizes distinctions among non-farm activities in terms of tradable-non-tradable and the formal-informal characteristics. The model shows that when a significant portion of village income is spent on town/urban goods, restricting empirical analysis to the village sample leads to underestimation of agriculture's role in employment growth and transformation of non-farm activities. Using rainfall as an instrument for agricultural productivity, empirical analysis finds a significant positive effect of agricultural productivity growth on growth of informal (small-scale) manufacturing and skilled services employment, mainly in education and health services. For formal employment, the effect of agricultural productivity growth on employment is found to be largest in the samples that include urban areas and rural towns compared with rural areas alone. Agricultural productivity growth is found to induce structural transformation within the services sector with employment in formal/skilled services growing at a faster pace than that of low skilled services.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Crops and Crop Management Systems,Labor Policies,Labor Markets,Rural Poverty Reduction
    Date: 2016–05–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7685&r=agr
  34. By: Musumba, Mark; Zhang, Yuquan W.
    Abstract: Developing economies are affected by price and productivity changes and this was evident during the 2007-2008 world food crisis and the 2010-2011 food price surge. For this study, we use a heterogeneous-agent modelling approach to simulate production and consumption responses of a household producing bananas (matooke), beans and maize; three of the top five staple food crops by per capita calorie intake in Uganda. Preliminary results focusing on maize producing households indicate substitution of maize for other items when market prices increase. Please note that complete results are pending and this work will be updated.
    Keywords: farm heterogeneity, computable general equilibrium model, maize productivity, price, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development, Production Economics, C61, Q12,
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236282&r=agr
  35. By: Agyekum, Michael; Donovan, Cynthia; Lupi, Frank
    Abstract: Cowpeas are a critical crop for food and income security for millions of people in Africa. Insect pests, however, are a major production constraint causing over 50% yield losses. Farmers indiscriminately apply expensive synthetic pesticides in spite of attendant health and environmental risks. Recognizing that current chemical control methods are costly and unsustainable for resource-poor farmers, an innovative integrated pest management strategy based on biocontrol agents is being explored for West Africa. Therefore, the objective of this study was to predict potential adoption of the innovative biocontrol strategy by determining important factors that explain farmers’ pest control decisions. To this end, we designed a choice experiment survey for 505 cowpea farmers in Benin. A conditional logit model was estimated. Survey findings indicate that farmers are aware of health hazards but persistently apply chemical pesticides out of necessity. Also, model results reveal that important factors driving pest control decisions include costs, labor, and potential yield losses. Finally, we show that social norms could be leveraged to enhance adoption of the biocontrol method. These findings have promising implications for on-going efforts to develop and disseminate sustainable biocontrol strategies that are eco-friendly and cost effective for smallholder farmers.
    Keywords: discrete choice experiment, IPM, biological control, cowpea, West Africa, Consumer/Household Economics, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, D12, D60, Q12, Q50,
    Date: 2016–05–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235993&r=agr
  36. By: Zhang, Yuquan W.; Mu, Jianhong E.; Musumba, Mark
    Abstract: Climate change (CC) can influence farmers’ crop choices and result in changes in the regionally varying crop mixes. Using a data set including sown area shares for each crop at province level over the most recent time period of 2000 through 2013 in China, this study employed a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) system to investigate the effects of climate variables on regional crop mixes. The influence of economic and land use intensity on crop area shares were also examined. Results show that winter temperature appears to be a more determining factor than growing season temperature for a region’s crop mix. Also regions with comparatively high farming values tend to see larger percentages of vegetables and orchards. As temperature rises, grains and soybeans that are linked to traditional food security may encounter compromises in production, whereas tubers, small oil crops, vegetables, and orchards would very likely see increases in area shares. Nonetheless, vegetables and orchards may not necessarily step in under future CC due to cost and land use intensity reasons.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Crop Mix, Seeming Unrelated Regression, Multi-Cropping Index, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235387&r=agr
  37. By: Meemken, Eva-Maria; Veettil, Prakashan Chellattan; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: Farmers’ preferences for sustainability certification are analyzed, building on a choice experiment conducted with smallholder coffee growers in Uganda. Farmers have positive general attitudes towards certification. While they dislike bans of productivity-enhancing inputs, benefits associated with agricultural training and special female support are appreciated. Many also see requirements that have to be met for certification as a welcome nudge to invest in better farm management and quality upgrading. Gender-disaggregated data reveal that female farmers have a higher preference for sustainability certification than male farmers. Also within households, significant preference heterogeneity between males and females is found for some certification attributes.
    Keywords: choice experiment, farmer preferences, food standards, gender, mixed logit models, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, Q01, Q12, Q13, Q18,
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gagfdp:235484&r=agr
  38. By: Joo, Hyunjeong; Mishra, Ashok
    Abstract: Off-farm income and government subsidy payments are the main sources of income for farm households, as they provide farm households with income security. Increased income from off-farm work or government subsidies can be capitalized in farm assets such as farmland. A plethora of literature has investigated the impact of off-farm income and government subsidies on farmland values. However, these studies are mainly concentrated in North America and West European countries. The goal of this paper is to study the impact of off-farm income and government subsidies on farmland values in South Korea using the unconditional quantile regression. We found that off-farm income and government payments have positive and significant effects on farmland values; this effect is higher in the upper quantiles. Results from this study can assist policymakers in many countries as they design agricultural policies to encourage growth in the non-farm economy.
    Keywords: Off-farm Labor Supply, Government Subsidy, South Korea, Farmland Value, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use,
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235748&r=agr
  39. By: Ramsey, Steven M.; Bergtold, Jason S.; Canales, Elizabeth; Williams, Jeff R.
    Abstract: Risk plays an important role in agricultural production decisions. When installation of new or intensification of existing conservation practices are under consideration, each farmer will have a unique, subjective view of the associated risks. The individualistic nature of risk perceptions could have important implications for conservation adoption or intensification. Thus, a more complete understanding of the factors influencing farmer risk perceptions is needed to increase the effectiveness of education, extension, outreach and programmatic efforts. The purpose of this study is to examine farmers’ risk perceptions regarding a bundle of in-field practices which could be used to intensify conservation efforts on farms in the Midwest. We present a conceptual model of perceived yield risk for four conservation practices: continuous no-till, conservation crop rotations, cover crops, and variable rate application of inputs. Bivariate probit models are estimated using survey response data from Kansas farmers.
    Keywords: Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236276&r=agr
  40. By: Choi, Donggul
    Abstract: Financial support from the Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy and Thesis Research Travel Grants, University of Minnesota, is acknowledged.
    Keywords: farmland investment, large-scale land acquisition, foreign direct investment, economic growth, growth model, computable general equilibrium, Ghana, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, F21, F43, O13, O41, O55, Q15, Q16,
    Date: 2016–05–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235815&r=agr
  41. By: Kouser, Shahzad; Qaim, Matin; Abedullah
    Abstract: The literature dealing with impacts of Bt cotton is growing. Nevertheless, the question remains about how this technology can contribute to employment generation of rural poor. Bt-related yield benefit may intensify production and enhance labor demand for harvesting. Building on farm survey data of 352 cotton farmers in the South Punjab of Pakistan and using double-hurdle model, Bt employments effects are analyzed. Estimates show that Bt adoption has increased the probability and demand for hired labor by 6% and 17%, respectively. Cotton picking is labor intensive and female dominated activity in Pakistan. Labor disaggregation by gender enunciates the employment effects of Bt cotton for rural women, who belong to the neglected group of the society. Hence, Bt technology can play a vital role to poverty alleviation if seed quality and credit constraints are properly addressed.
    Keywords: Bt cotton, labor demand, women empowerment, double hurdle model, Pakistan, Crop Production/Industries, Labor and Human Capital, J43, O33, Q11, Q16,
    Date: 2015
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212014&r=agr
  42. By: Driedger, Jonathon; Porth, Lysa; Boyd, Milton
    Abstract: Crop insurers have limited ability to manage the risk of losses once premiums are set and farmers have taken out their policies. Any additional instruments that enhance the ability for insurers to reduce their risk between when premiums are set and final yields are determined can help manage potential losses. The relationship between crop insurance losses and changes in futures prices are examined, and whether there is the potential to hedge crop insurance losses with grain futures contracts.
    Keywords: crop insurance, hedging, futures contracts, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235747&r=agr
  43. By: Kovacs, Kent; Popp, Michael; Xu, Ying; West, Grant
    Abstract: Groundwater overdraft has long-run consequences for the crops grown, the economic viability of the agricultural community, and the ecosystem services from the landscape. We investigate how groundwater scarcity affects the tradeoff of economic returns and ecosystem services (namely, groundwater supply, surface water quality, and greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions) in the Mississippi Delta farm production region of Arkansas, USA. As groundwater is more depleted, farmers are turning to conjunctive water management with on-farm reservoirs and tail water recovery. Distinct objectives either for economic returns and for ecosystem service guide whether on-farm reservoirs are built amidst a backdrop of cropping and irrigation decisions. Reservoirs enable the landscape to sustain a higher level of economic returns and ecosystem services. This is done through a synergy of economic returns, groundwater conservation, and GHG reductions that lowers irrigation costs and reduces the fuel combustion and associated GHGs from groundwater pumping.
    Keywords: Ecosystem services, Conjunctive water management, Spatial-dynamic optimization, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Q15, Q24, Q25, Q28,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235357&r=agr
  44. By: Kibrewossen Abay; Kalle Hirvonen; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti
    Abstract: Seasonality in agricultural production continues to shape intra-annual food availability and prices in low-income countries. Using high-frequency panel data from northern Ethiopia, this study attempts to quantify seasonal fluctuations in children's weights. In line with earlier studies, we document considerable seasonality in children’s age and height adjusted weights. While children located closer to local food markets are better nourished compared to their counterparts residing in more remote areas, their weights are also subject to considerable seasonality. Further analysis provides evidence that children located closer to food markets consume more diverse diets than those located farther away. This leads us to conclude that households located near these food markets are not able to insulate their children from seasonal weight fluctuations.
    Keywords: africa; anthropometric measurements; child nutrition; food consumption; nutrition indicators;
    JEL: L15 O1 Q18
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa846&r=agr
  45. By: Carew, Richard C.; Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Meng, Ting
    Abstract: Previous hedonic wine studies have employed conventional regression models to show the effects of objective and subjective attributes such as sensory characteristics, expert quality panel assessments, and regional reputation on wine prices. This paper employs a market segmentation approach based on price to show how lower, mid-priced and higher priced California red and white wines sold in British Columbia (BC) are influenced by objective attributes including geographical origin, grape variety, family brand names, alcohol content, and volume sales. Results show that red and white wine prices are segmented differently and the price segments for either wine type vary from those reported by earlier studies. Also, the effects of numerous attributes on wine prices vary significantly across wine types and price segments. The study findings show higher priced California Cabernet Sauvignon wines fetch a sizeable price premium compared to similar priced varietal wines like Merlot. Higher priced California white wines from Napa are discounted relative to wines labeled with a generic California appellation, whereas higher priced California red wines from Sonoma, Central Valley and Central Coast earn a price discount. Moreover, alcohol content is negatively related to higher priced California red wines, while positively associated with prices of mid-priced and higher priced California white wines.
    Keywords: Attribute, hedonic pricing, panel data, varietal wines, log-likelihood test, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, Q11, D12, L66,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235253&r=agr
  46. By: Yang, Wei
    Abstract: Purpose: It is undeniable that the NZ economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, especially dairy sector, but the increasing nutrient pollution discharged from dairy farms is a threat to the water quality of lakes, stream and rivers. Therefore, the dairy industry is under increasing pressure to make a commitment to improving the environmental performance of farming practices to protect water quality in waterways. Hence, farmer’s choice should be considered as one of the most important determinants of the success of policy aimed at water quality protection. It is therefore the aim of this paper to explore determinants of dairy farmers’ willingness to adopt Best manamgment practices (BMPs) for water quality protection. In addition, except for testing the commonly used determinants, such as farm characteristics, it will test for the hypothesis that spatial effects influence farmers’ choices. Design/methodology: Bayesian spatial Durbin (SDM) probit models are applied to survey data collected from dairy farmers in the Waikato Region of New Zealand. Specifically, this paper will verify the above hypothesis from two aspects. Firstly, spatial effects will be modelled according to the distance from farm to the nearest water bodies. It is assumed that dairy farmers whose farms are located close to water bodies are more inclined to be willing to adopt BMPs. Secondly, spatial effects will be presented as the existence of spatial interdependency in dairy farmers’ decision-making. It is hypothesised that dairy farmers observe or learn from nearby farmers thereby reducing the uncertainty of the performance of BMPs since BMPs are information-intensive farming techniques. Data were obtained from survey of 171 farms in the Waikato region of New Zealand; socioeconomic data were drawn from the 2013 Census. The advantage of the SDM probit model is that it allows for the inclusion of both the spatially lagged dependent variable and spatially lagged independent variables, which takes account the impact of neighbouring farmers’ decisions as well as of neighbouring farmers’ characteristics. Therefore, different from non-spatial probit models, the SDM probit model accounts for both direct and indirect effects. Significantly, the indirect effects (spatial spillovers) help to measure to what extent a change in the neighbouring farmers’ characteristics affect the adoption probability of a dairy farmer.Findings: Results show that farmers located in close proximity to each other exhibit similar choice behaviour indicating that access to industry information is an influential determinants of dairy farmers’ adoption of BMPs. In addition, these findings address the importance of farmer interactions in adoption decisions as participation in dairy-related activities are identified as an extension of information acquisition. Financial problems are considered a significant barrier to adopting BMPs. Overall, the study highlights the importance of accounting for interdependence in farmers’ decisions, which emerges as important in the formulation of agricultural-enviornmental policy. Originality/value: This paper is the first empirical study to examine the determinants of farmer’s adoption of BMPs in NZ by using spatial econometrics methods, which considers various determinants, including drivers and barriers for farmers to adopt the practices, farm and household characteristics as well as spatial issues. The results contribute to assist policy makers to specify water protection strategies. An understanding of dairy farmers’ drivers and barriers to adopting BMPs could assist policy makers to deliver support to solve the problems that are badly in the need of help. Besides, the importance of information availability in the neighbourhood network and social activities for the farmer's decision-making suggests that extension activities that address the whole community may be more efficient than targeting individual farmers to induce behavioural changes in adoption of BMPs.
    Keywords: Spatial dependence, Dairy farmers, Best management practices, Bayesian spatial Durbin probit model, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235434&r=agr
  47. By: Rosburg, Alicia; Miranowski, John; McFadden, Jonathan
    Abstract: We develop an economic model of cellulosic biofuel production under stover supply uncertainty. The model considers three contract arrangements that vary according to risk-sharing between the processor and farmers and allows us to evaluate the processor’s choices of plant size and contract terms that acquire corn stover feedstock with relatively low variability. We apply the model to corn stover-based ethanol in U.S. crop reporting districts. A greater quantity of biofuel is supplied at lower cost under right-of-access contracts than a delivered quantity contract. However, the processor bears most of the stover production risk with right-of-access contracts. The processor can lay off some of this risk by contracting excess acreage, and if available, by purchasing deficit stover from a spot market. Contracting excess acreage increases the expected biofuel cost but results in lower uncertainty surrounding cellulosic biofuel supply. A biomass spot market provides a source of biomass during low yielding years, but can also create competition for the processor by providing an alternative outlet for farmers to supply stover. Our results also suggest that farmers’ contract preferences are responsive to the basic structure of incentives. As the industry develops and market uncertainties change, rigidity of farmers’ contract preferences are not expected to limit the processor’s adjustment process.
    Keywords: Corn stover, Biomass, Biofuel, Contracts, Risk, Agribusiness, Industrial Organization, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235875&r=agr
  48. By: Jha, Jaya; Roe, Terry L.
    Abstract: This paper examines the structural relationship between U.S. agricultural exports, foreign GDP growth, and real exchange rate volatility, and the impact of exogenous shocks on the evolution of export growth to examine the sector's international competitiveness and opportunities for export extensification. The long- and short-run dynamics of export demand are analyzed within the structural cointegrating vectorautoregressive framework. Principal findings are that: 1. Exports of high-value processed agricultural products are more sensitive to changes in foreign income and exchange rate fluctuations than exports of low-value grains and bulk commodities. Specifically, a 10% growth in trade-adjusted GDP across all importing countries leads to a 7.8% increase in U.S. exports of bulk commodities compared to 33% increase in exports of high-value processed commodities. Similarly, a 10% increase in the value of the trade-weighted exchange rate (i.e., an appreciation of the U.S. dollar) reduces bulk exports by 8.4% compared to a whopping 35% decline in high-value processed food exports; 2. In response to exogenous shocks, deviations from the predicted equilibrium level of exports are corrected at a much faster rate for grains and other bulk commodity exports than export of high value commodities. For example, more than 75% of the disequilibrium in aggregate bulk commodity exports is corrected within one year; less than 15% of the disequilibrium in high-value processed exports is corrected within a year. 3. The present concentration of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to a few developed countries is increasingly problematic, U.S. agricultural exports may benefit not only from policies intended to increase trade with existing developing country importers but also from policies that aim to export agricultural commodities to emerging markets. Our paper also highlights the importance of including the long-run relationship when modeling the short-run dynamics.
    Keywords: U.S. agricultural exports, foreign income, exchange rates, cointegrating VAR, bounds test, income and price elasticities, export demand, structural impulse response functions, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Q17, O11, O41, O51, F14, F41, F62, C22, C32,
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236250&r=agr
  49. By: Okello, Julius J; Zhou, Yuan; Kwikiriza, Norman; Ogutu, Sylvester; Barker, Ian; Schulte-Geldermann, Elmar; Ahmed, Justin; Atieno, Elly
    Abstract: This paper used the propensity score method to assess the effect of using certified seed potato (CSP) on yield, input use, and food security among smallholder farmers. It focused on potato growers in central highlands of Kenya. The study found positive effect using certified seed on both yield and food security. But at the same time users of CSP applied significantly higher amounts of pesticides. This study therefore concludes that while using CSP has positive welfare effects, it can increase the use of inputs, some of which have environmentally degrading effects. It discusses the policy implications of the findings
    Keywords: Smallholder farmers, certified seed potato, use and effect, propensity score matching, Kenya, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2016–05–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236242&r=agr
  50. By: Negash, Martha
    Abstract: Smallholder farmers in poor economies like Ethiopia dominate the agriculture sector. Energy crop supply for biofuel processing will likely depend on the adoption behavior of farmers. The drivers of energy crop adoption at household level are predicted to include access related factors, assets and household characteristics. Using data from castor outgrower scheme in Ethiopia and applying a double-hirdle model, we analyze adoption as a two-step decision process. The results show that higher price of maize (a major staple crop) is strongly associated with lower size of land allocation to castor. Contrary to the widely accepted notion, access indicator variables such as distance from village centers (where most decentralized public service centers are located) and number of visits by public extension agents do not influence the decision to adopt. But interestingly, conditional on positive participation, farmers who live furthest from the village centers tend to allocate bigger proportion of their land to the energy crop.
    Keywords: adoption, biofuels, castor, Ethiopia, Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, International Development, Q42, Q16, O13, Q12,
    Date: 2015–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:230226&r=agr
  51. By: Kemeze, Francis H.; Miranda, Mario J.; Kuwornu, John; Amin-Somuah, Henry
    Abstract: Erratic rainfall, within and between years, leads to high uncertainty in runoff reservoir operations in many Sub-Sahara African (SSA) countries. Severe food shortages attributed to drought affect millions of vulnerable households, particularly those whose livelihoods depend on agriculture. We construct and successfully simulate a stochastic dynamic model of a small runoff reservoir fashioned after the Tono Reservoir in Northern Ghana. Our model considers a reservoir authority who at the beginning of each season observes the stock of water in the reservoir and, in the wet season, the amount of rainfall, and must decide how much water to release from the reservoir for irrigation and how much acreage to irrigate in order to maximize returns to the agriculture over the three growing seasons. We drive optimal irrigation policies with and without access to emergency groundwater pump irrigation systems and with and without access to rainfall index insurance. The optimal irrigation policies including reservoirs operation policy, deficit irrigation management, and the available water resource allocation could be used to provide decision support for water resources management. Besides, the strategies obtained could help with the risk analysis of reservoirs operation stochastically.
    Keywords: Erratic rainfall, runoff reservoir, optimal irrigation policies, index insurance, Ghana, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236030&r=agr
  52. By: Bulut, Harun
    Abstract: We examine the industry structure of the crop insurance program through the lens of industrial organization theory and develop an analytical framework to evaluate alternative economic design considerations and policy proposals.
    Keywords: agricultural (crop and livestock) insurance, oligopoly, oligopsony, double auction, Agricultural and Food Policy, Industrial Organization, Political Economy, Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty, D81, D82, G22, G28, L13, Q12, Q18,
    Date: 2016–05–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236008&r=agr
  53. By: Chen, Kuan-Ju; McCluskey, Jill J.
    Abstract: It can be difficult to understand how wines prices are established. Wines are experience goods, so consumers must rely on their previous experience or expert opinions in making their purchase choices. The impact of expert rating scores on wine prices is well documented. This study estimates the contribution of expert’s wine tasting notes, focusing on certain keywords, and other wine characteristics. We examine whether expert descriptive information has an influence on the wine prices using tasting notes on Washington wines that are listed in Wine Spectator magazine. The analysis includes estimations of different wine segments by price category. Estimating a hedonic price functions by product segment relaxes the assumption that the implicit prices of each attribute are the same across price categories. The results indicate that certain keywords used in tasting notes and wine characteristics exert a significant influence on the prices of wines and these effects are different across different segments.
    Keywords: Tasting note, hedonic regression, market segmentation, structural breaks, wine, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization, Marketing, C23, L11, L66,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235697&r=agr
  54. By: Deichmann,Uwe; Goyal,Aparajita; Mishra,Deepak K.
    Abstract: Mobile phones and the internet have significantly affected practically all sectors of the economy, and agriculture is no exception. Building on a recent World Bank flagship report, this paper introduces a concise framework for describing the main benefits from new information and communications technologies. They promote greater inclusion in the broader economy, raise efficiency by complementing other production factors, and foster innovation by dramatically reducing transaction costs. The paper reviews the recent literature on corresponding technology impacts in the rural sector in developing countries. Digital technologies overcome information problems that hinder market access for many small-scale farmers, increase knowledge through new ways of providing extension services, and they provide novel ways for improving agricultural supply chain management. Although there are many promising examples of positive impacts on rural livelihoods--or"digital dividends"--often these have not scaled up to the extent expected. The main reason is that technology can only address some, but not all, of the barriers faced by farmers in the poorer countries.
    Keywords: E-Business,Agricultural Knowledge and Information Systems,ICT Policy and Strategies,Technology Industry,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems
    Date: 2016–05–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7669&r=agr
  55. By: Perez-Quesada, Gabriela; García-Suárez, Federico
    Abstract: The dairy sector is one of the most influential sectors and plays an important role in the economic and social structure of Uruguay. Assuring and enhancing the dairy sector productivity and efficiency represent an important challenge in order to improve the competitiveness of the sector and achieve a sustained economic growth. Consequently, the overall objective of this study is to analyze the efficiency performance of dairy farms in Uruguay. Using a crosssectional database this paper estimates a Cobb-Douglas stochastic production frontier and technical inefficiency model for dairy farms to determine the effect of each input in the production frontier and the principal factors that explain differences on farm efficiency. Results shows that highest effect on production is the number of milking cows followed by the total consumption of feed including concentrated feed, hay and ensilage. Although, veterinary, agronomic or accounting assistance matter, the major determinant of efficiency differences is the artificial insemination. Overall farm profiles indicate that those in the high efficiency group achieve a higher level of milk production than those less efficient; and they are larger in terms of the herd size, used labor, feed consumption and area under cultivated forage than those in lower efficiency group.
    Keywords: stochastic production frontier, Uruguayan dairy farms, technical efficiency, crosssectional data, Agribusiness, Farm Management, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235743&r=agr
  56. By: Khanal, Aditya; Mishra, Ashok
    Abstract: We examined the impact of participation in certified organic production on farm earnings and net cash farm incomes of the US farm households. Using a nation-wide dataset and an unconditional quantile regression approach, we found a significant heterogeneous effect across different quantiles of farm earnings. Our results suggest that the effect of certified organic production is positive across the unconditional quantiles of net cash farm income but the effect is significantly larger for the farms with larger operations while smaller operations have low or non-significant effects.
    Keywords: unconditional effects, quantile regression, organic, farm earnings, incomes, Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics, Production Economics,
    Date: 2016–05–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235618&r=agr
  57. By: Khanna, Madhu; Wang, Weiwei; Hudiburg, Tara; DeLucia, Evan
    Keywords: biofuels, indirect land use change, welfare costs, Environmental Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235774&r=agr
  58. By: Hartmann, Monika; Cash, Sean B.; Yeh, Ching-Hua; Landwehr, Stefanie C.; McAlister, Anna R.
    Abstract: Background: Children’s dietary related diseases and their associated costs have expanded dramatically in many countries, making children’s food choice a policy issue of increasing relevance. As children spend a considerable amount of money on energy dense, nutrient‐poor (EDNP) food products a better understanding of the main drivers of children’s food purchase decisions is crucial to prompt this behavior towards a more health promoting diet. Objective: The objective of the study is to investigate the role of branding and price in motivating children to choose healthier snack options. Methods: The study investigates snack choices of children ages 8 to 11 based on a survey and a purchase experiment. The research took place in after‐school programs of selected schools in the Boston area. 118 children took part in the study. Products in the choice experiment differed on three attributes, namely, product type (chocolate chip cookie as less healthy, and apple slices and strawberry tube yogurt as more healthy snacks), brand (McDonald’s or generic), and price ($0.30, $0.50, or $0.70). Data was analyzed using aggregated logit models, random parameter logit model and latent class analysis. Results: The results show that children’s purchase deci¬sions are primarily determined by product type with most children showing a high and signifi¬cant pre¬ference for choco¬late chip cookies. Surprisingly, generic products are preferred over the McDonald’s products across the whole sample, though children stating that they like McDonald’s reveal this also in their purchase decision. Prices only prove significant after controlling for whether or not children obtain allowance. Conclusion: First, it is not simple brand awareness but a child’s liking of the brand what determines whether a brand is success¬ful in motivating a child to choose a product and potentially a healthier option. Second, the extent of chil¬dren’s experience with money influences their price responsiveness. To the extent that children who receive allowance are primarily the once buying food snacks, higher prices for EDNP snacks could be success¬ful in motivating children to choose the healthier option.
    Keywords: children’s food preference, discrete choice experiment, aggregated and random parameter logit models, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235841&r=agr
  59. By: Xiong, Bo; Beghin, John
    Abstract: A possible Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement will further integrate agricultural markets between the United States and the European Union. The elimination of tariffs and cooperation on Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures will promote cross-Atlantic trade. We empirically estimate the impacts of tariffs and Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) on trade in plant products between the two partners. Furthermore, we simulate trade expansions under plausible negotiation outcomes. We find that a TTIP agreement promotes cross-Atlantic trade in plant products, in both directions, by over 60% if tariffs are removed and MRLs are mutually recognized or harmonized to Codex levels.
    Keywords: Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP, maximum residue limit, MRL, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, tariff, trade agreement, NTM, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Q17, F15,
    Date: 2016–05–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235633&r=agr
  60. By: Iqbal, Md Zabid
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2016–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235384&r=agr
  61. By: Hrozencik, Robert Aaron; Manning, Dale
    Abstract: Groundwater resources provide an important input to agricultural production in many semi-arid regions of the world. However, groundwater extraction rates that exceed natural recharge cause aquifer depletions and threaten the sustainability of this vital input for irrigated agriculture. The common property nature of aquifers means that individual irrigators do not always use groundwater in a way that maximizes its value to society. Groundwater management policies are a means to address aquifer depletion concerns and maximize groundwater’s value to society through time. In practice, water resource managers seek cost effective policies that incentivize more efficient and sustainable water use.
    Keywords: Groundwater policy, Ogallala, Irrigated Agriculture, Integrated Hydrologic Modelling, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236116&r=agr
  62. By: Liu, Qing; Zhou, Jiehong; Yan, Zhen
    Abstract: The present study attempts to separate the environmental motivation and healthy motivation of consumers' choice for pro-environmental products through choice experiment and latent class model. Moreover, the different motives behind pro-environmental purchase and its impact on heterogeneity of consumer preferences needs to be further examined. Data are collected by means of face-to-face interview in Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Guangdong of China with a total sample size of 477 consumers. The results reveal that the consumers who are willing to buy pro-environmental products are motivated by health benefits as well as environmental considerations due to the higher consciousness of food safety and eco-environment in China. However, the healthy attributes tend to prevail in consumers' motivations. Consumers who have stronger environmental motivation will show higher preferences for pro-environmental products. It is also found that these consumers have the following characteristics: higher perception and knowledge of pro-environmental products,lower income , convenient purchase and female. Our results have implications for the improvement of government's consumption policies and the precision marketing of producers to induce consumers' participation to buy pro-environmental products, which in turn do a great benefit to environmental-friendly production and sustainable environment.
    Keywords: pro-environmental purchase motives, consumer preference, choice experiment, latent class model, Agricultural and Food Policy,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236261&r=agr
  63. By: Kamel, Louhichi; Laura, Riesgo; Sergio, Gomez y Paloma
    Keywords: Food security, Fertilizer subsidy programs, Farm household model, Ethiopia, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2016–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235927&r=agr
  64. By: Larochelle, Catherine; Alwang, Jeffrey; Travis, Elli
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence from a randomized control trial (RCT) conducted among potato farmers in Northern Ecuador about the impact of receipt of text message reminders on farmer knowledge about and adoption of integrated pest management (IPM) practices. The paper provides novel empirical evidence of the potential roles of reminders as post-training follow-ups in an agrarian setting. Using psychological constructs, we examine competing explanations for non-standard decision making such as low adoption of beneficial agricultural technologies. Farmers who received text messages have significantly higher knowledge scores and are more likely to adopt most IPM practices than those in the control group. The experiment provides evidences that text messages lead to behavioral changes by reducing inattention and sub-optimal heuristics in the case of complex decisions.
    Keywords: Technology adoption, agricultural extension, information and communication technology, program evaluation, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, International Development, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession, O13, Q12, Q13,
    Date: 2016–05–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235423&r=agr
  65. By: Motamed, Mesbah; O'Donoghue, Erik
    Abstract: The natural hedge is a familiar concept in the agricultural risk literature, but little work has formally examined its size and effect on producer outcomes. In this paper, we systematically measure the impact of the natural hedge on revenue stability over the period 1960-2014. We also test its effect on present-day insurance uptake decisions. As part of the analysis, we propose an alternative measure of the natural hedge that is not subject to the simultaneity of price and yield outcomes. As an initial attempt, we correlate prices with rainfall to obtain a more "natural" natural hedge. From our results, the natural hedge exerts a stabilizing effect on long-run producer revenues, but its impact on insurance decisions is less consistent.
    Keywords: production, agricultural risk, natural hedge, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235547&r=agr
  66. By: Eriksson, Mathilda (CERE and the Department of Economics, Umeå University); Vesterberg, Anders (CERE and the Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: It is argued that the forest can provide low-cost options to reduce the atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, many dimensions of the future dynamics of the forest, and its interactions with climate change are still not well understood. This paper provides new insights into how these types of uncertainties affect the optimal climate policy. We model uncertainty over several key forest parameters by using the novel state-contingent approach. Our main results show that the importance of including optimal forest controls in climate policy increases when the dynamics of the forest are uncertain. Ignoring uncertainties concerning the forest will lead to biased estimates of the social costs of carbon and be misleading when evaluating climate policies. Conversely, recognizing forest uncertainties and its potential to mitigate climate change will lead to a robust policy where the cost of uncertainty to a large extent can be avoided.
    Keywords: Keywords: Climate change; Integrated assessment; Uncertainty; Carbon sequestration
    JEL: C61 D81 Q23 Q54
    Date: 2016–03–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:slucer:2016_004&r=agr
  67. By: Ruomei Xu (College of Economics and Management, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei, China); Yanrui Wu (Business School, University of Western Australia); Jingdong Luan (College of Economics and Management, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei, China)
    Abstract: Genetically modified (GM) crops, particularly GM grain crops, have been controversial since their commercialization in 1996. However, only a few studies have investigated farmers’ attitudes toward adopting GM grain crops in China. This study explores farmers’ willingness to adopt GM insect-resistant rice prior to its commercial release in China and determines the factors that affect farmers’ prospective adoption decisions. The analysis is based on data collected by using a questionnaire. The results of econometric analyses show that increasing output and income, and simplicity in crop management, have positive effects on prospective adoption, whereas the high seed price of GM rice has a significantly negative effect. Health implications also have a significantly positive effect on the farmers’ decision to adopt GM grain crops. A comparative analysis of ordered and binary probit models also demonstrates that farmers are more deliberate in their decisions when they have fewer choices.
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:16-01&r=agr
  68. By: Waldrop, Megan; McCluskey, Jill
    Keywords: wine, sustainable, certification, labels, Consumer/Household Economics, Marketing,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235217&r=agr
  69. By: Boys, Kathryn; Kandilov, Ivan
    Abstract: We analyze Chinese outward direct investment (ODI) in the farm and processed food sectors between 2001 and 2013. Our findings underscore the importance that assessments of ODI should consider both standard theoretical determinants of cross-border flows, such as GDP and geographical distance, as well as political and institutional factors that affect host country risk. Determinants also differ in their importance dependent upon the specific subsector (farm vs. processed food vs. others) under consideration.
    Keywords: FDI, China, International Relations/Trade, F1,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235972&r=agr
  70. By: Caputo, Vincenzina; Nayga, M. Rodolfo Jr.; Sacchi, Giovanna; Scarpa, Riccardo
    Abstract: The fact that survey respondents do not attend to all the attributes presented in choice experiment surveys is fast becoming a key issue in CE studies. This study proposes a new method aimed at eliciting consumers’ stated attribute non-attendance (ANA) behavior at the levels of each attribute, and compares it with the commonly used stated ANA approach, where non-attendance behavior is captured at the attribute level (i.e., not levels of the attributes). Results generally indicate that respondents do indeed ignore some of the levels of an attribute, suggesting that capturing non-attendance behavior at the attribute level would be insufficient at accurately and totally capturing stated ANA behavior. This finding implies that future choice experiment studies should take ANA into account not only at the attribute level but also at the levels of an attribute, both when asking respondents their stated ANA behavior during the survey and also in CE model specifications.
    Keywords: stated attribute level non-attendance, serial attribute non-attendance, serial attribute level non-attendance, choice experiments, Consumer/Household Economics, Institutional and Behavioral Economics,
    Date: 2016–08–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236035&r=agr
  71. By: Iqbal, Md Zabid
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235361&r=agr
  72. By: Wu, Yifei; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Brewer, Brady E.
    Abstract: According to the USDA ARMS data, farm real estate values have increased almost threefold since 1987, but this trend is leveling off. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that both irrigated and non-irrigated farmland was trending negatively in the second and third quarters of 2015. This phenomenon not only happens in district 10, but reports from districts 11, 8, and 7 of the Federal Reserve are also indicate a downward trend in farmland value. It is likely that the value of farm real estate, especially in middle America, is just beginning a downward slide. This decrease in land value is correlated with low commodity prices and low expected returns from the agricultural sector. According to the USDA, net U.S. farm income tumbled 38% to $55.9 billion in 2015, the lowest in more than a decade (Newman, 2015). Agriculture is by nature a cyclical industry. In the 1980s, the bust of the agricultural economy resulted in an increase in farmer defaults and agricultural bank failures. In 1985 and 1986, agricultural banks charged off $2.5 billion in loan loss, and 50 agricultural banks failed each year from 1985 to 1987. Therefore, banks and shareholders are very interested in whether the decline in farmland prices and weak agricultural profitability will cause another agricultural credit crisis. The agricultural credit crisis in the 1980s and the current agricultural economy expectations highlight the importance of understanding the economic mechanisms triggering agricultural loan default and the rise in charge-off rates. Insights into these issues may then inform political debates on how to prevent future foreclosure crises or mitigate their impacts if they must happen. To date, a clear lack of structural theory on farm real estate loan default behavior exists. This paper contributes to this research agenda by developing a heterogeneous agent model to study the effects of a farmland price shock and commodity price shock on the default decisions of farmers. Findings from simulations of this structural model can help policy-makers understand the mechanisms of farmland loan default.
    Keywords: Foreclosures, Bankruptcy, Agricultrual commodity price, Farmland Price, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, Risk and Uncertainty, G21, E27, R20,
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235846&r=agr
  73. By: Aiko Endo (Research Department, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature); Kimberly Burnett (University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa); Pedcris M. Orencio (Catholic Relief Service Philippines (Manila Office) Urban Disaster Risk Reduction Department); Terukazu Kumazawa (Center for Research Promotion, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature); Christopher Wada (University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa); Akira Ishii (Yachiyo Engineering Co., Ltd.); Izumi Tsurita; Makoto Taniguchi (Research Department, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature; Department of Cultural Anthropology, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on a collection of methods that can be used to analyze the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus. We classify these methods as qualitative or quantitative for interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research approaches. The methods for interdisciplinary research approaches can be used to unify a collection of related variables, visualize the research problem, evaluate the issue, and simulate the system of interest. Qualitative methods are generally used to describe the nexus in the region of interest, and include primary research methods such as Questionnaire Surveys, as well as secondary research methods such as Ontology Engineering and Integrated Maps. Quantitative methods for examining the nexus include Physical Models, Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA), Integrated Indices, and Optimization Management Models. The authors discuss each of these methods in the following sections, along with accompanying case studies from research sites in Japan and the Philippines. Although the case studies are specific to two regions, these methods could be applicable to other areas, with appropriate calibration.
    Keywords: water-energy-food nexus (WEF); integrated tools; integrated indices; benefit-cost analysis (BCA); optimization management models; integrated maps; ontology engineering; physical models; interdisciplinary; transdisciplinary
    Date: 2015–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hae:wpaper:2015-12&r=agr
  74. By: Romero, Cristina; Wollni, Meike
    Abstract: In this paper we study the dynamics of smallholder participation in export value chains focusing on the example of small-scale broccoli producers in the highlands of Ecuador. We analyze the extent of participation over an 11-year time period using correlated random effects and diff-GMM models and explain the hazards of dropping out of the export chain based on a multi-spell cox duration model. The empirical results suggest that small-scale farmers' exit from the export sector is accelerated by hold-ups experienced in the past and that family ties play an important role in farmers' marketing decisions. Negative external shocks – such as the global financial crisis starting in 2007 that was associated with the bankruptcy of the main buyer in our case study – represent a major threat towards the sustainability of smallholder inclusion in high-value chains.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212286&r=agr
  75. By: He, Xi
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, Industrial Organization,
    Date: 2016–05–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235347&r=agr
  76. By: Leppänen, Simo; Solanko, Laura; Kosonen, Riitta
    Abstract: This paper explores the implications of climate change for government expenditures. Using a rich sub-national dataset for Russia covering 1995–2009, we estimate the impacts of changes in climatic conditions through short-term variation and medium-term changes in average regional temperatures and precipitation. We show a strong and robust negative (but non-linear) relation between regional budget expenditures and population-weighted temperature. The results indicate that an increase in temperature results in a decrease in public expenditures and that the magnitude of this effect diminishes the warmer the region. Further, our results suggest that the benefits from warming accumulate and that adaptation measures could help leverage those benefits. The estimated decreases in regional government expenditure are, however, quite small. It should be noted that our results are estimated for a scenario of mild temperature increase (1–2 °C). Larger temperature increases are likely to have dramatic consequences e.g. from loss of permafrost and methane release that are impossible to predict with available historical data.
    Keywords: climate change, public expenditures, adaptation, non-linearity, Russia
    JEL: Q54 Q58 H72 R59 C50 P20
    Date: 2015–09–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2015_027&r=agr
  77. By: Pavlova, Evgenia; Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von
    Keywords: Financial Economics, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235866&r=agr
  78. By: Leschewski, Andrea; Weatherspoon, Dave
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to develop a group based food diversity index that classifies convenience foods based on the basic food items they contain. This group based food diversity index is then applied to examine the relationship between the demand for food diversity, food expenditures and household characteristics. Further, findings using the new group based food diversity measure are compared to those obtained using a product code based food diversity index. Results are forthcoming.
    Keywords: food diversity, food variety, demand, convenience food, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235572&r=agr
  79. By: McArthur, Travis
    Keywords: Land titling, efficiency, sorting, PROCEDE, Mexico, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, O13, Q15,
    Date: 2016–05–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236133&r=agr
  80. By: Palm-Forster, Leah H.; Suter, Jordan F.; Messer, Kent D.
    Abstract: Conservation compliance rules are designed to reduce soil erosion by requiring farmers to comply with specific conservation standards in order to maintain their eligibility for federal assistance programs, such as subsidized crop insurance. Conservation compliance requirements are typically connected to farmers’ individual management actions and not the resulting outcomes (e.g., nutrient loading in watersheds). In this research, we develop policies to reduce nonpoint source (NPS) pollution that link access to agricultural subsidies to ambient levels of pollution and compliance with conservation goals. Four policy environments (treatments) are tested including: 1) no-policy control, 2) linear ambient tax, 3) subsidy reduction if ambient pollution exceeds an announced threshold, and 4) subsidy reduction based on ambient pollution that individuals can avoid by adopting a costly, pollution-reducing technology. Policies are tested using laboratory experiments in which undergraduate student subjects (n=156) act as firm managers. Each manager is assigned to a group comprised of six firms and asked to make production and technology decisions that affect the profitability of his/her firm and ambient water pollution for the group. Preliminary results suggest that participants are significantly more likely to adopt a costly, pollution-reducing technology and accept lower profits when adoption provides assurance that those individuals will not be penalized for ambient pollution levels. By merging a conservation compliance framework with a penalty for ambient pollution, this work contributes to the literature on innovative NPS policies.
    Keywords: conservation compliance, ambient tax, nonpoint source pollution, water quality, agri-enivironmental policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Q58, Q25, Q53,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235943&r=agr
  81. By: Maiga, Eugenie W. H.
    Abstract: Using data from the Living Standards Measurement Surveys-Integrated Surveys of Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), this paper investigates the determinants of changes in youth and women participation in agriculture. Participation in the agricultural labor force is measured using hours per week in agriculture and change in hours worked per week in agriculture between two survey waves for Nigeria and Uganda. Ordinary Least Squares and Tobit methods are used to estimate the model. The findings suggest that age is a strong determinant in hours worked per week in agriculture in Nigeria but not in Uganda. For both countries, age does not seem to have an impact on changes in hours worked per week in agriculture by the youth or by women. Nigerian men work more hours per week in agriculture than women while the opposite is true for Uganda. Education, gender, rural residence, and non-agricultural wage income strongly affect hours worked per week in agriculture.
    Keywords: Youth, Women, Agricultural Labor, Participation, Agricultural and Food Policy, Labor and Human Capital,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235997&r=agr
  82. By: Plastina, Alejandro; Lence, Sergio H.
    Keywords: cost function, generalized quadratic, Bayesian, agriculture, productivity, technical change, duality, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236132&r=agr
  83. By: KS, Aditya; Khan, Tajuddin; Kishore, Avinash
    Keywords: Crop insurance, Risk, Debt, PSM, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, International Development, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235708&r=agr
  84. By: Darbandi, Elham; Saghaian, Sayed
    Abstract: This study analyses the price adjustment of the U.S beef sector using monthly prices of the farm, wholesale and retail levels for the period of 1970-2014. The objectives are to investigate both speed and magnitude of price adjustment. To this purpose, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and historical decomposition graphs are applied. The results indicate that retail prices have lower speed of adjustment than wholesale prices. Also, the magnitude of price adjustment in the presence of the Great Recession shock, as an exogenous shock, is different for each level of the U.S. beef marketing chain such that wholesale prices show a higher magnitude of price adjustment toward the long-run equilibrium. Finally, it is concluded that with respect to both speed and magnitude of the price adjustment, the U.S. beef sector has asymmetric price adjustment, pointing to inefficiency of the U.S. beef supply chain. These results have welfare implications for the U.S. beef consumers and producers.
    Keywords: Price analysis, the U.S. Beef Market, Historical Decomposition, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Livestock Production/Industries, Q11, Q13,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235664&r=agr
  85. By: Li, Dengwang; Bi, Xiang; Zhang, Wendong; Tian, Xiaohui; Qiu, Huanguang
    Keywords: Farm Management, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, Q15, Q12, D23,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235799&r=agr
  86. By: Qing, Ping; Hu, Wuyang
    Abstract: China has risen to be the largest red wine consumer in the world but related studies using disaggregated and consumer-based data are scarce. This article examines Chinese preferences and willingness to pay for different wine attributes through a recent national survey including a choice experiment. Results indicate that country of origin is still one of the most important attributes for wine. Taste of wine and organic production are also relevant to consumers. Wine vintage is not as important as expected. Key implications on Chinese domestic and imported wines are discussed under the context of recent profound structural changes in wine consumption induced by policy shifts.
    Keywords: China, wine, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing, Q13,
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235477&r=agr
  87. By: D'Souza, Anna; Tandon, Sharad
    Abstract: Utilizing a novel data source from rural Bangladesh that reports individual-level food intake, we find substantial inequities in the intra-household distribution of calories and nutrients, with household heads consuming disproportionately large shares. Importantly, these results do not appear to be driven by assumptions regarding energy requirements. Due to the inequities, aggregate household-level data misclassify the nutritional status of a large share of the population. Additionally, we find that both women’s disempowerment and economic stressors are associated with more inequitable calorie distributions. And we find that in households with more empowered spouses, either the spouse or the children, or both are less likely to be undernourished than in households with less empowered spouses. These findings have implications for food and nutrition program targeting, which often is based on using household-level data with strong assumptions regarding the equitable distribution of calories across household members.
    Keywords: Bangladesh, Food Consumption, Intra-household Allocation, Food Security, Undernourishment, International Development, D12, I15, O12, O53,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235832&r=agr
  88. By: Ogundari, Kolawole; Aromolaran, Adebayo
    Abstract: The study investigates the causal relationship between nutrition and economic growth in sub Saharan Africa (SSA). A dynamic panel causality test based on the Blundell-Bond’s system generalized methods-of-moment (GMM) employed. To make efficient inference for the estimates, we check for the panel unit root and cointegration relationship amongst the variables. The variables were found to be non-stationary at level, stationary after first difference and co-integrated. The results of the causality tests reveal evidence of long and short-run bi-directional causality between nutrition and economic growth; which implies that nutritional improvement is a cause and consequence of economic growth and vice versa.
    Keywords: Nutrition, Economic Growth, Causality, Cross-country, Panel data, SSA, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, B23, C23, E03, E21, I31,
    Date: 2016–08–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235352&r=agr
  89. By: Chakrabarti, Suman; Kishore, Avinash; Roy, Devesh
    Abstract: Would the households get to buy more of subsidized grains from a food safety-net program if the difference between the price of grains in the program and the open market were to increase? This is an important question for social safety-net programs everywhere in the world, but even more so for the Public Distribution System (PDS) of India—the largest food-based safety-net program in the world. The standard economic intuition suggests that price controls distort price signals and create incentives for unintended transactions and the unintended transactions increase in magnitude as the incentive (the arbitrage) increases. However, Dreze and Sen have argued that the increase in arbitrage between PDS and open market prices of grains increased the value of PDS entitlement, giving people much greater stake in the system leading to increased accountability and increase in household purchase of grains from PDS. We test these two opposing arguments empirically in this study using repeated cross sections of consumer expenditure surveys by National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) and panel datasets from India Human Development Survey (IHDS) and Village Dynamics in South Asia (VDSA) and find evidence for both arguments. Our analysis shows that whether more subsidy in a food safety net program benefits the households or leads to higher diversion, depends on how well the system is managed. In states where PDS is better governed, households get to buy more rice from the PDS when the arbitrage increases. However, in states like Bihar and Jharkhand where PDS is poorly run, household purchase of subsidized grains goes down as the arbitrage goes up.
    Keywords: PDS, arbitrage, corruption, food subsidy, national food security act, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, Political Economy, Public Economics,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235763&r=agr
  90. By: Wetzstein, Brian; Florax, Raymond; Foster, Ken; Binkley, James
    Keywords: Marketing,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235947&r=agr
  91. By: Ollinger, Michael; Guthrie, Joanne; Peo, Audrey
    Abstract: School food authorities (SFAs) run meal service programs in each school district and are reimbursed at a national rate for meals served to eligible students participating in the National School Lunch Program (NSLP). Previous research (Ollinger et al., 2011) showed that meal costs were lower for SFAs that serve more meals, and Newman, Ralston, and Clauson (2008) found that some large volume buyers reduce their food costs by negotiating price discounts. This paper builds on that research by examining factors affecting purchase costs. The main findings are that cost dropped with the volume of product purchased and with the number of meals served for most foods and varied across regions. A major surprise was that small and middle size SFAs in buying cooperatives and SFAs using school food management companies had higher costs than did other SFAs not using co-operatives or food management companies.
    Keywords: National School Lunch Program, School Breakfast Program, school meals, school food authorities, Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235687&r=agr
  92. By: Han, Xue; Philip, Garcia
    Abstract: While genetically modified technology has been investigated extensively, few studies have examined the price impact of genetically modified food contamination events. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the price effects of multiple genetically modified contamination events in the U.S. corn market. Using the relative price of substitute method and time-varying cointegration, we identify three structural breaks relevant to the corn contamination events, with the two largest being associated with StarLink and MIR162. Our results support the StarLink’s large effect on corn prices, but the effect attributed to MIR162 is less clear. This more recent break in prices emerged three months prior to China’s import ban, and was influenced by changes in U.S. corn supply, and EPA’s proposed reduction of the ethanol mandate. Expansion of sorghum exports and subsequent increased corn production likely kept pressure on corn prices. While China’s import ban on MIR162 may have influenced prices, evidence suggests the recent downturn in the U.S. corn market has been mainly caused by other domestic supply and demand changes.
    Keywords: corn, sorghum, cointegration, GMO, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, Q13, Q11,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236004&r=agr
  93. By: Britwum, Kofi; Yiannaka, Amalia
    Abstract: Research on recent pre-slaughter interventions in the beef industry, particularly vaccinations and direct-fed microbials, have proven their effectiveness in reducing E. coli contamination in beef. In spite of such evidences, adoption of these technologies have been minimal. This study determined consumer response and willingness to pay (WTP) for beef products from cattle vaccinated against E. coli and given direct-fed microbials, and evaluated multiple message frames and their persuasive impacts on WTP for the technologies. Respondents were grouped into six information treatments, and were exposed to gain-framed and loss-framed messages, a media food safety story, and combinations of the media story and the gain-framed and loss-framed messages. A survey which included a choice experiment targeted a representative, random sample of 1,879 residents across the U.S in July and August 2015. A random parameters logit model found that consumers preferred animal vaccines over direct-fed microbials, and preferred either intervention to none at all. Corroborating prospect theory’s loss aversion, the loss-framed message, and the combined loss-framed message with the media story were the most persuasive, inducing the highest WTP. These findings altogether present an optimistic outlook about consumers’ openness to these technologies, and are of interest to agents in the beef sector who influence the variety and presentation of consumption choices available to consumers.
    Keywords: direct-fed microbials, message framing, vaccines, willingness to pay., Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, D11 D12 Q13,
    Date: 2016–05–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235884&r=agr
  94. By: Yamaura, Koichi; Peterson, Hikaru
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236071&r=agr
  95. By: Colby, Scott
    Abstract: I document differences in produce consumption across low and high socioeconomic status (SES) households using a large nationally representative panel. I show that the differences are great enough to be major contributors to disparities in diet-based diseases across SES. I argue that the efficacy of public health policies aimed at improving health disparities by improving access to retailers that offer healthy foods can be gauged by measuring the impact that shifting households’ shopping frequency curve has on fresh produce consumption. I estimate a household-level random effects model of households’ joint decision of shopping frequency and produce consumption using an instrumental variables approach. The model is a coupled dynamic system that allows me to decompose SES-produce consumption disparities into direct SES effects and indirect SES effects through shopping frequency. I conclude that the indirect effects are not substantial enough to motivate policy intended to reduce health inequity across SES by reducing disparities in access to food retailers that offer healthful food.
    Keywords: shopping frequency, Homescan, consumption, diet, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, D12 D13 I18,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236155&r=agr
  96. By: Sant'Anna, Ana Claudia; Bergtold, Jason; Caldas, Marcellus; Granco, Gabriel
    Keywords: Ethanol production, stated choice experiment, contract preferences, Agribusiness, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, O13, D86,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235655&r=agr
  97. By: Wang, Sun Ling; Huang, Jikun; Wang, Xiaobing; Tuan, Francis
    Abstract: In this study, we use a multilateral total factor productivity (TFP) panel data, spanning 1985-2011 period, to test the hypotheses of convergence to a single TFP level (σ convergence) or to a region-specific steady state TFP growth rate (β convergence) for China’s farm sector. Results show that there is no evidence of an overall σ convergence across all provinces. However, we find robust evidences of β convergence. Estimated rates of β convergence are conditional on how we capture the heterogeneity across regions. Overall, the rate of β convergence ranges from 0.016 to 0.028. Estimates also show that higher growth rate of education, R&D, capital/labor ratio, or intermediate goods/labor ratio can boost the rate of TFP growth.
    Keywords: Total Factor Productivity (TFP), σ convergence, β convergence, multilateral comparison, China agricultural sector., Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, O13, O47, Q16,
    Date: 2016–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235709&r=agr
  98. By: Yang, Yanliang; Davis, George C.; Han, Dae Hee
    Keywords: Time Preference, Nutrition Education, BMI, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235700&r=agr
  99. By: Giri, Anil; Johnson, Bruce; Supalla, Raymond
    Abstract: The impending increase in the frequency of weather extremes means that there may be an expected increase in drought frequency and severity, leading to more variability in agricultural production. Production variability in turn leads to price volatility, production management challenges and concerns over food security. Several drought measures or indices have been developed, but most are not linked directly to agricultural water demands, or if linked, are based on cumulative seasonal precipitation for relatively large geographic areas. Using cumulative seasonal precipitation assumes that each unit of water has the same effect on yields irrespective of when it occurs. This leads to inaccuracies, because the marginal effect of one inch of rain on yield is extremely high during certain periods of time and almost epsilon at others. In this paper drought is defined using a newly developed measure called the Net Crop Moisture Deficit (NCMD). NCMD has not been used in research previously. NCMD is the difference between, the amounts of water a crop would use with a full water supply, less an estimate of effective rainfall. NCMD is estimated at the county level using a simulation model that incorporates monthly crop water requirements, stored soil moisture and effective monthly precipitation. Preseason soil moisture conditions are incorporated based on inter-seasonal rainfall. Droughts which occurred during the 1980 to 2013 time period were identified based on observed dryland corn yield reductions relative to trend yields. These ground truth results were then compared to NCMD and seasonal precipitation measures of drought to evaluate which measure worked best. The results showed that basing drought classifications on NCMD resulted in improved predictions of yield relative to other drought measures. The positive predictive value, which gives the probability of correctly identifying drought years, was higher for NCMD compared to seasonal precipitation. The negative predictive value, which gives the probability of correctly identifying no drought years, was also higher for NCMD compared to seasonal precipitation. NCMD was also more precise in identifying the severity of drought. The average and marginal effect of NCMD on yield was the same for different annual events within a given county. This means that the NCMD regression coefficients are estimates of the marginal contribution of an inch of effective water to yield. It also means that for a given location the impact per inch doesn’t change when the magnitude of the shortage changes. For ex ante analysis regression equations were estimated on grain yields based on the cumulative NCMD value at the end of July. The forecasted yield deviations were compared to the observed yield deviations and to the forecasted values using the full season moisture shortfall. The results showed that there was no statistical difference in the yield prediction using July rather than end of season values. This effectively means that one can forecast the reduction in yield at the end of July.
    Keywords: Drought, NCMD, weather variability, corn yield, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235628&r=agr
  100. By: Rehkamp, Sarah; Canning, Patrick
    Keywords: energy, diet, U.S. food system, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235896&r=agr

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