nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2016‒03‒23
33 papers chosen by

  1. The Potential Benefits of Agricultural Adaptation to Warming in China in the Long Run By Jikun Huang; Kaixing Huang; Jinxia Wang
  2. A Synthesis of the Status of Agricultural Research and Investment to Support Sustainable Development in Countries of Asia and the Pacific By Jabbar, Mohammad A.; Mal, Bhag; Ghodake, Raghunath
  3. Agriculture and adaptation to climate change: The Role of wildlife ranching in South Africa By Jackson Otieno and Edwin Muchapondwa
  4. Sustainability of global and local food value chains. An empirical comparison of Peruvian and Belgian asparagus By Schwarz, Jana; Schuster, Monica; Annaert, Bernd; Maertens, Miet; Mathijs, Erik
  5. Farm production diversity and dietary quality: Linkages and measurement issues By Sibhatu, Kibrom T.; Qaim, Matin
  6. Modelling volatility spillovers for bio-ethanol, sugarcane and corn By Chia-Lin Chang; Tai-Lin Hsieh; Michael McAleer; Yu-Ann Wang
  7. Colonization and Changing Social Structure: Kazakhstan 1896-1910 By Gani Aldashev; Catherine Guirkinger
  8. Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity: an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios By Roberto Roson; Richard Damania
  9. Economics of invasive pests and diseases: a guide for policy makers and managers By Morag MacPherson; Nick Hanley
  10. Cost benefit analysis and the environment: How to best cover impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services By Anil Markandya
  11. “Examining the association between the determinants leading to migration of female farmers from rural areas” By Dwivedy, Nidhi
  12. Economic valuation of coastal and marine ecosystem services in the 21st century: an overview from a management perspective By Cati Torres; Nick Hanley
  13. Determinants of Borrowing and Households’ Risk of Credit in Rural Area in Niger By Ahamadou MAICHANOU
  14. Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Benefits from Conservation Practices Targeted in Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy 2013: A Non Market Valuation Approach By Mainul Hoque; Catherine L. Kling
  15. Who Did the Ethanol Tax Credit Benefit? An Event Analysis of Subsidy Incidence By David A. Bielen; Richard G. Newell; William A. Pizer
  16. Special and Differential Treatment for Developing Countries By Emanuel Ornelas
  17. Economic Analysis of Climate-Proofing Investment Projects By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  18. The price is not always right : on the impacts of commodity prices on households (and countries) By Lederman,Daniel; Porto,Guido
  19. Who Benefits from Calorie Labeling? An Analysis of its Effects on Body Mass By Partha Deb; Carmen Vargas
  20. Making Money Work: Unconditional cash transfers allow women to save and re-invest in rural Zambia By Luisa Natali; Sudhanshu Handa; David Seidenfeld; Gelson Tembo; Amber Peterman; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti
  21. Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison By Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William; Anthoff, David; Bosetti, Valentina; McJeon, Haewon; Blanford, Geoffrey; Christensen, Peter; Reilly, John; Sztorc, Paul
  22. Assessing Impacts of Agricultural Science and Technology By Norton, George W.; Alston, Julian M.; Pardey, Philip G.
  23. The specification of dynamic discrete-time two-state panel data models By Tue Gorgens; Dean Hyslop
  24. Spanish Agriculture in the Little Divergence By Alvarez-Nogal, Carlos; Escosura, Leandro Prados de la; Santiago-Caballero, Carlos
  25. Vertical Differentiation, Uncertainty, Product R&D and Policy Instruments in a North-South Duopoly By Julien Berthoumieu; Viola Lamani
  26. Impact of Shifting Cultivation in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh on the Growth of Microbial Organisms By Shafat Hosen; Ohidul Alam; S. M. Sirajul Haque
  27. Distance and Time Effects in Swedish Commodity Prices, 1732-1914 By Mario J. Crucini; Gregor W. Smith
  28. Economic Backwardness and Catching Up: Brazilian Agriculture, 1964–2014 By Lee Alston; Bernardo Mueller
  29. Building Uncertainty into the Adaptation Cost Estimation in Integrated Assessment Models By Markandya, Anil; De Cian, Enrica; Drouet, Laurent; Polanco-Martìnez, Josué M.; Bosello, Francesco
  30. David vs Goliath (You against the Markets), A Dynamic Programming Approach to Separate the Impact and Timing of Trading Costs By Ravi Kashyap
  31. Quel rôle pour les coopératives dans la mise en œuvre de Mesures Agro-Environnementales ? By Gaël Plumecocq; Jean-Pierre Del Corso; Charilaos Kephaliacos
  33. Carbon Storage and Bioenergy: Using Forests for Climate Mitigation By Favero, Alice; Mendelsohn, Robert; Sohngen, Brent

  1. By: Jikun Huang (Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy at Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research); Kaixing Huang (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Jinxia Wang (School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University)
    Abstract: Understanding to what extent agriculture can adapt to climate change and the determinants of farmers' adaptation capability are of paramount importance from a policy perspective, especially for developing countries where agricultural production is potentially most vulnerable to climate change. Based on a panel of household survey data from a large sample in rural China, the present article adopts a panel approach to estimate the potential benefits of adaptation and to identify the determinants of farmers' adaptation capability. Empirical modeling results suggest that, under the most likely climate change scenario, the potential impacts of warming on agricultural profits will be rather mild (8.4 percent) by the end of this century if adaptations are taken into account. In addition, for all potential warming scenarios, adaptations are expected to consistently offset about 50 percent of the potential damages caused by global warming. Finally, households with higher labor and capital intensities are better placed to adapt to global warming.
    Keywords: climate change impact, agriculture, adaptation capability
    JEL: Q15 Q51 Q54
    Date: 2016–03
  2. By: Jabbar, Mohammad A.; Mal, Bhag; Ghodake, Raghunath
    Abstract: In order to provide background information about the current policies, strategies, priorities as well as current capacities and trends of investment in agricultural research and innovation to support sustainable development in countries of Asia and the Pacific, a structured questionnaire was sent to 25 countries seeking a brief status report. Twenty-two countries responded of which, based on GDP per capita at current prices in 2014, 5 countries were classified as high income, 7 as medium income and 10 as low income. Responses revealed that major policies that have implications for agricultural research in these countries include food security/food supply, productivity improvement, sustainable natural resources management, sustainable development or sustainability, competiveness and market development, rural development, rural income generation and livelihood. Specific meaning and implication of each of the above policies vary across income groups and countries. Among the strategies adopted to implement the policies include two broad categories: one is related to research and technology transfer and the other is related to building organization, market development, and regulations. There are differences between countries and income groups in terms of specific strategies adopted. Among the main focus and priority areas for research and development, top on the list is a broad area encompassing global warming/ climate change/ natural resources management/environment, which is common across income groups. Other areas include frontline research and innovation, strengthening market/value chain/competiveness, stability of food supply/commodity supply, establishment of advanced facilities/services/infrastructure, problems of producers/industry. There are differences between income groups in terms of importance of focus areas. Agricultural research and innovation is primarily a public sector activity in nearly all the countries; in high income countries private sector, NGOs and farmer associations also play some role. Precise information on levels of investment and their sources were not available. However, available cursory information suggests that agricultural research is under-funded and under-invested. Climate change, environmental problems and their consequences are perceived as the most important challenges facing the countries across all income groups. Other perceived challenges fall into two broad categories - technology for productivity improvement and market development, and research staff, facilities and laboratories. All the countries have ongoing plans built on past achievements to address future challenges. It is recommended that in discussion on future agenda and priorities, in addition to the above issues, consideration should be given to alignment with sustainable development goals agenda, the increasing importance of livestock sub-sector in the region, the need for strengthening research-policy-end user partnerships and interactions, and the need for stronger collaboration within regional bodies like the ASEAN and SAARC.
    Keywords: agricultural research, objectives and strategies, investment, sustainable development, Asia-Pacific, APAARI, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q1, Q16,
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Jackson Otieno and Edwin Muchapondwa
    Abstract: In this paper, we explored the role of wildlife in adaptation to climate change in areas predominantly used for livestock production in South Africa. Using a sample of 1071 wildlife and livestock farms we estimated a multinomial choice model of various adaptation options including livestock and wildlife farming choices. The results indicate that mixed livestock-wildlife farms are less vulnerable to climate change when compared to specialized livestock or wildlife farms. However, net farm revenues per hactare are higher for specialized wildlife ranches when compared to mixed wildlife-livestock ranches or livestock ranches. The results further show that temperature increase will influence most livestock farmers to change land use to wildlife ranching. At farm level, land size and social networks are also likely to play a bigger role in land use change as climate changes. Using climate models, we establish that livestock farmers in Eastern Cape Province of South Africa will be most affected by climate change and will subsequently change land use.
    Keywords: climate change, Wildlife Ranching, Adaptation, Agriculture, South Africa
    JEL: Q12 Q15 Q54
    Date: 2016
  4. By: Schwarz, Jana; Schuster, Monica; Annaert, Bernd; Maertens, Miet; Mathijs, Erik
    Abstract: The sustainability of food value chains is an increasing concern for consumers, food companies and policy-makers. Global food chains are often perceived to be less sustainable than local food chains. Yet, thorough food chain analyses and comparisons of different food chains across sustainability dimensions are rare. In this article we analyze the local Belgian and global Peruvian asparagus value chains and explore their sustainability performance. A range of indicators linked to environmental, economic and social impacts is calculated to analyze the contribution of the supply chains to economic development, resource use, labour relations, distribution of added value and governance issues. Our findings suggest that none of the two supply chains performs invariably better and that there are trade-offs among and between sustainability dimensions. Whereas the global chain uses water and other inputs more intensively and generates more employment per unit of land and higher yields; the local chain generates more revenue per unit of land.
    Keywords: local food value chains, global food value chains, food trade, asparagus, sustainability, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development, Production Economics, Q01, Q17,
    Date: 2016–03
  5. By: Sibhatu, Kibrom T.; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: Recent research has analyzed whether higher levels of farm production diversity contribute to improved dietary quality in smallholder households. We add to this literature by using different indicators, thus testing the robustness of previous findings and helping to better understand the underlying linkages. The analysis builds on data from Indonesia, Kenya, and Uganda. Farm diversity measured through a simple species count has a small positive effect on dietary quality, either expressed in terms of dietary diversity scores or micronutrient consumption levels. However, when measuring production diversity in terms of the number of food groups produced, the effect turns insignificant in most cases. Further analysis suggests that diverse subsistence production contributes less to dietary quality than cash income generated through market sales. Much of the food diversity consumed in farm households is purchased from the market. If farm diversification responds to market incentives and builds on comparative advantage, it can contribute to improved income and nutrition. This may also involve cash crop production. On the other hand, increasing the number of food groups produced on the farm independent of market incentives will foster subsistence, reduce cash incomes, and thus rather worsen dietary quality. We conclude that from a nutrition perspective improving market access is more important than farm diversification as such.
    Keywords: dietary diversity, micronutrients, nutrition-sensitive agriculture, smallholder farm households, developing countries, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development, D13, I15, O13, Q12,
    Date: 2016–03
  6. By: Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics Department of Finance National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan); Tai-Lin Hsieh (Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan); Yu-Ann Wang (Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan)
    Abstract: The recent and rapidly growing interest in biofuel as a green energy source has raised concerns about its impact on the prices, returns and volatility of related agricultural commodities. Analyzing the spillover effects on agricultural commodities and biofuel helps commodity suppliers hedge their portfolios, and manage the risk and co-risk of their biofuel and agricultural commodities. There have been many papers concerned with analyzing crude oil and agricultural commodities separately. The purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility spillovers for spot and futures returns on bio-ethanol and related agricultural commodities, specifically corn and sugarcane, using the multivariate diagonal BEKK conditional volatility model. The daily data used are from 31 October 2005 to 14 January 2015. The empirical results show that in 2 of 6 cases for the spot market, there were significant negative co-volatility spillover effects, specifically corn on subsequent sugarcane co-volatility with corn, and sugrcane on subsequent corn co-volatility with sugarcane. In the other 4 cases, there are no significant co-volatility spillover effects. There are significant positive co-volatility spillover effects in all 6 cases, namely between corn and sugarcane, corn and ethanol, and sugarcane and ethanol, and vice-versa, for each of the three pairs of commodities. It is clear that the futures prices of bio-ethanol and the two agricultural commodities, corn and sugarcane, have stronger co-volatility spillovers than their spot price counterparts. These empirical results suggest that the bio-ethanol and agricultural commodities should be considered as viable futures products in financial portfolios for risk management.
    Keywords: Biofuel, Spot prices, Futures prices, Returns, Volatility, Risk, Co-risk, Bio-ethanol, Corn, Sugarcane, Diagonal BEKK model, Co-volatility spillover effects, Hedging, Risk management.
    JEL: C32 C58 G13 G15 Q14 Q42
    Date: 2016–03
  7. By: Gani Aldashev; Catherine Guirkinger
    Abstract: This paper investigates how, under increasing land pressure during Russian settlement in Kazakh steppes in the late-XIXth century, family-based institutions and social structure of Kazakhs evolved to adapt to new economic conditions. Using a rich dataset constructed from Russian colonial expedition materials, we find that during the transition from nomadic pastoralism to a semi-sedentary pastoralist-agriculture system, the size of Kazakh extended families increased, those of communes and clans decreased, and that Kazakhs identified stronger with lower levels of genealogical clan system. Within families, property rights on land became more individualized, households became less likely to pool labor to farm, and wage labor contracts in agriculture became common. We discuss theoretical explanations for the observed patterns.
    Date: 2016–03
  8. By: Roberto Roson (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Richard Damania (The World Bank, Washington DC)
    Abstract: In this paper we consider some of the economic implications of climate change scenarios as described in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). By comparing potential water demand with estimates of (sustainable) water availability in different regions, we identify regions that are likely to be constrained in their future economic growth potential by the scarcity of water resources. We assess the macroeconomic impact of water scarcity under alternative allocation rules finding that, by assigning more water to sectors in which it has a higher value, shifting production to less water intensive sectors, and importing more water intensive goods, constrained regions can effectively neutralize these water related climate risks and adapt to a changing water environment. However, this adaptation effort is likely to imply some radical changes in water management policies.
    Keywords: Water, Economic Growth, Shared Socio-economic Pathways, Computable General Equilibrium, Virtual Water Trade
    JEL: C68 F18 F43 O11 Q01 Q25 Q32 Q56
    Date: 2016
  9. By: Morag MacPherson (Division of Computing Sciences and Mathematics, University of Stirling); Nick Hanley (Department of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews)
    Abstract: Invasive pests and diseases are a growing threat to agricultural crops, livestock and forests worldwide. In this report, we look at the contribution that economics can make to developing policies to counter the risks of such pests and diseases. First, though, we review some of the evidence on the nature of this problem.
    Keywords: invasive species; pests and diseases; agriculture; forests; zoonotic; transferable externality.
    JEL: Q01 Q18 Q23 Q54 Q57
    Date: 2015–03
  10. By: Anil Markandya
    Abstract: There are now a large number of valuation studies on the benefits of biodiversity and on ecosystem services, the services provided by different ecosystems (ESS). Both ideas have been used to elicit values from nature but in recent years the research community has focussed on ESS as the main organising framework, with some additional use of the biodiversity concept to value entities that have intrinsic value and are of an extraordinary nature. Estimates are available for the services from most habitats, by type of ecosystem service, usually expressed in USD per hectare per year. Coverage varies by habitat and region, as does the quality of the assessment, but it is possible now to carry out an estimation of changes in values for a number of ecosystem services a result of the introduction of a new policy or of a physical investment that modifies the ecosystem. While this is a positive development, there remain some issues to be resolved. One is the possibility of double-counting of services when using the standard categories of provisioning, regulating/supporting and cultural ESS. Regulating and supporting services are the basis of the provisioning services and so value estimates for the two cannot always be added up. For example, air pollution absorption is often valued using the cost of alternative ways of reducing the pollutants from the atmosphere while recreation is often valued in terms of willingness-to-pay (WTP) through stated preference methods.
    Keywords: environmental policy, biodiversity, cost-benefit analysis, ecosystem services
    JEL: H43 Q51 Q54 Q57 Q58
    Date: 2016–03–09
  11. By: Dwivedy, Nidhi
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between ordinal/dichotomous independent variables and an ordinal dependent variable. The relationship between farm size categories and the responses for the satisfaction level of the income females get from their farm has been looked into. The hypothesis is that the lower the farm size, lower is the satisfaction level of the income females get from their farm against the reference population. We will start with some data manipulation, followed by exploratory analyses and then a linear hierarchical regression model will be used. The paper has been divided into four parts- (1 introduction, 2. Empirical Method and Estimation, 3. The Model and 4. Conclusion and Discussion) & concluded that the predictor is statistically significant so, coefficients are interpretable.
    Keywords: Access to extension service, farm income, Female Farmers, Rural Area, Sikkim, Views to accompany the husband to move towards urban area, Views to Leave Farming and Views to move towards urban area
    JEL: Q12 Q15
    Date: 2016–03–10
  12. By: Cati Torres (Universitat de les Illes Balears); Nick Hanley (University of St. Andrews)
    Abstract: This report aims to provide, through an extensive review of the literature, a comprehensive overview of the knowledge base regarding the valuation of coastal and marine ecosystem services (ES), placing emphasis on the analysis of both the policy implications of current studies as well as existing challenges. We aim to contribute not only to the role that economic valuation can play in the management of these ecosystems, but also to promote discussion among social and ecological researchers about further research needs. The report aims to serve as a basis to build a common language which is crucial to improve the sustainability of natural resources.
    Keywords: Economic valuation, coastal and marine ecosystem, cost-benefit analysis, policy implications, research needs, challenges
    JEL: C83 D61 D62 Q51 Q53 Q57
    Date: 2016
  13. By: Ahamadou MAICHANOU
    Abstract: This article focuses on borrowers default in rural credit in Niger, according to their food needs situation. Given that economic agents are likely to adopt opportunistic behavior rather than mutually beneficial relations when facing natural hazards, this analysis is taken from the perspective of contract theory with asymmetric information. In the case of rural Niger, it empirically addresses the determinants of involuntary default, voluntary default and repayment effort, while managing the difficulties of applying the concepts of information economy and uncertainty to the complexity of rural area credit in a developing country. Results show more involuntary default than voluntary one and a real willing to repay. These results make us to provide support for households with effort repayment willing and establish an incentives structure for all kind of borrowers.
    Keywords: ontract, credit, risk of default, asymmetry of information, rural, Niger
    JEL: D13 D86
    Date: 2016
  14. By: Mainul Hoque; Catherine L. Kling (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD))
    Abstract: With the aim of improving water quality, the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy 2014 sets a goal of reducing agricultural non-point-source generated nitrogen load by 41 percent and phosphorus load by 29 percent in Iowa's waterways. The "strategy" describes several land use that could achieve those reductions, such as widespread adoption of conservation practices in farming, land retirement, and wetland restoration that can meet the specified target reduction. The goal of the current study is to identify the range of ecosystem benefits resulting from the conservation practices associated with each of these scenarios and apply a nonmarket valuation method to monetize as many of these co-benefits as possible. The results will inform policymakers and stakeholders regarding the efficiency of the program.
    Date: 2016–03
  15. By: David A. Bielen; Richard G. Newell; William A. Pizer
    Abstract: Using commodity futures contract and spot prices, we estimate the incidence of the US ethanol subsidy accruing to corn farmers, ethanol producers, gasoline blenders, and gasoline consumers at expiration in 2011. We find compelling evidence that ethanol producers captured two-thirds of the subsidy, and suggestive evidence that a small portion of this benefit accrued to corn farmers. The remaining one-third appears to have been captured by blenders, as we find no evidence that oil refiners or gasoline consumers captured any part of the subsidy. This paper contributes to understanding of biofuels markets and policy and empirical estimation of economic incidence.
    JEL: H22 Q11 Q41 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2016–02
  16. By: Emanuel Ornelas
    Abstract: Special and Differential Treatment for Developing Countries (SDT) constitutes a central feature of the GATT/WTO system. Its formal goal is to foster export-led growth in developing countries. Its theoretical foundations and empirical support are, however, weak at best. In particular, SDT conflicts with the GATT's two key principles of reciprocity and nondiscrimination, compromising the efficiency of the multilateral trading system. Still, if SDT provisions help those who most need help, sacrificing economic efficiency may be justifiable. However, there are numerous criticisms, on theoretical and empirical grounds, to the premises and the achievements of SDT-based disciplines, casting serious doubt on its effectiveness in helping developing countries trade and grow. For researchers, the good news is that there is plenty of room for progress, with several important areas where our understanding remains unsatisfactory but progress is feasible---that is, where the expected return to research effort seems unusually high
    Keywords: generalized System of Preferences, preferential tariffs, trade policy, World Trade Organization, terms of trade, firm delocation, export-led growth
    JEL: F13 F55 O19 O24
    Date: 2016–03
  17. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: Climate change represents an increasing threat to the continued development of the people, preservation of ecosystems, and economic growth of Asia and the Pacific. Mainstreaming climate risk management in all aspects of development is thus key to an effective transition to climate-resilient development pathways. ADB’s climate risk management framework aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects in Asia and the Pacific. A key step in this framework is the technical and economic valuation of climate-proofing measures. This report describes the conduct of the cost-benefit analysis of climate proofing investment projects. An important message is that the presence of uncertainty about climate change does not invalidate the conduct of the economic analysis of investment projects, nor does it require a new type of economic analysis. However, the presence of uncertainty does require a different type of decision-making process in which technical and economic expertise combine to present decision makers with the best possible information on the economic efficiency of alternative designs of investment projects.
    Keywords: adb projects, asia, pacific, climate change, climate-proofing, risk analysis, climate risks, economic analysis, project design, project implementation, climate risk resilience, infrastructure development, adaptation costs, cost–benefit analysis, risk management, adaptation, economic analysis
    Date: 2015–09
  18. By: Lederman,Daniel; Porto,Guido
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the impact that one-time changes in commodity and other prices have on household welfare. It begins with a collection of stylized facts related to commodities based on household survey data from Latin America and Africa. The data uncovers strong commodity dependence on both continents: households typically allocate a large fraction of their budget to commodities, and they often also depend on commodities to earn their income. This income and expenditure dependency suggests sizable impacts and adjustments following commodity price shocks. The article explores these effects with a review of the relevant literature. The authors study consumption and income responses, labor market responses, and spillovers across sectors. The paper provides evidence on the relative magnitudes of various mechanisms through which commodity prices affect household (and national) welfare in developing economies.
    Keywords: Access to Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access
    Date: 2016–02–29
  19. By: Partha Deb; Carmen Vargas
    Abstract: This study uses county-level variation in implementation of calorie labeling laws in the US to identify the effects of such laws on body mass. Using the 2003 to 2012 waves of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, we find a statistically insignificant average treatment effect for women and a small, statistically significant and negative average treatment effect for men, indicating a decrease in BMI after implementation of calorie-labeling laws. We estimate finite mixture models and discover that the average treatment effects mask substantial heterogeneity in the effects across three classes of women and men. For both women and men, the three classes, determined within the model, can be described as a subpopulation with normal weight, a second one that is overweight on average and a third one that is obese on average. Estimates from finite mixture models show that the effect is largely concentrated among a class of women with BMI distributions centered on overweight. The effects for men are statistically significant for each of the three classes and large for men in the overweight and obese classes. These results suggest that overweight and obese individuals are especially sensitive to relevant information.
    JEL: I12 I18
    Date: 2016–02
  20. By: Luisa Natali; Sudhanshu Handa; David Seidenfeld; Gelson Tembo; Amber Peterman; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti
    Abstract: Savings play a crucial role in faciliating investment in income-generating activities and the pathway out of poverty for low-income households in developing settings. Yet, there is little evidence of successful programmes that increase savings, particularly those that are simultaneously cost effective, scaleable and address gender inequalities. This paper examines the impact of the Government of Zambia’s Child Grant Programme (CGP), an unconditional cash transfer targeted to women in households with young children, on women’s savings and participation in non-farm enterprises. Findings show that the CGP enabled poor women to save more cash and that the impact is larger for women who had lower decision-making power at baseline. The results support the proposition that cash transfers have the potential for long-term sustainable improvements in women’s financial position and household well-being by promoting savings and facilitating productive investments among low-income rural households.
    Keywords: cash transfers; savings; small farms; small scale enterprises; social benefits; women in development; women's empowerment; zambia;
    JEL: O22
    Date: 2016
  21. By: Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William; Anthoff, David; Bosetti, Valentina; McJeon, Haewon; Blanford, Geoffrey; Christensen, Peter; Reilly, John; Sztorc, Paul
    Abstract: The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Integrated Assessment Models, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q540,
    Date: 2016–03–01
  22. By: Norton, George W.; Alston, Julian M.; Pardey, Philip G.
    Keywords: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,
  23. By: Tue Gorgens; Dean Hyslop
    Abstract: This paper examines dynamic binary response and multi-spell duration model approaches to analyzing longitudinal discrete-time binary outcomes. Prototypical dynamic binary response models specify low-order Markovian state dependence and restrict the effects of observed and unobserved heterogeneity on the probability of transitioning into and out of a state to have the same magnitude and opposite signs. In contrast, multi-spell duration models typically allow for state-specific duration dependence, and allow the probability of entry into and exit from a state to vary flexibly. We show that both of these approaches are special cases within a general framework. We compare specific dynamic binary response and multi-spell duration models empirically using a case study of poverty transitions. In this example, both the specification of state dependence and the restrictions on the state-specific transition probabilities imposed by the simpler dynamic binary response models are severely rejected against the more flexible multi-spell duration models. Consistent with recent literature, we conclude that the standard dynamic binary response model is unacceptably restrictive in this context.
    Keywords: Panel data, transition data, binary response, duration analysis, event history analysis, initial conditions, random effects.
    JEL: C33 C35 C41 C51
    Date: 2016–02
  24. By: Alvarez-Nogal, Carlos (Universidad Carlos III); Escosura, Leandro Prados de la (Universidad Carlos III, CEPR, and CAGE); Santiago-Caballero, Carlos (Universidad Carlos III)
    Abstract: This paper explores the role of agriculture in Spain’s contribution to the little divergence in Europe. On the basis of tithes, long-run trends in agricultural output are drawn. After a long period of relative stability, output suffered a severe contraction during 1570-1620, followed by stagnation to 1650, and steady expansion thereafter. Output per head shifted from a relatively high to a low path that persisted until the nineteenth century. The decline in agricultural output per head and per worker from a relatively high level contributed to Spain falling behind and, hence, to the Little Divergence in Europe. Output per worker moved along labour force in agriculture over the long run, supporting the depiction of Spain as a frontier economy. Institutional factors, in a context of financial and monetary instability and war, along climatic anomalies, provide explanatory hypotheses that deserve further research.
    Keywords: agriculture, tithes, early modern Spain, labour productivity, little divergence JEL Classification: N53, O13, Q10
    Date: 2016
  25. By: Julien Berthoumieu (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux 4); Viola Lamani (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux 4)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of several trade policy instruments on product Research and Development (R&D) investment in a North-South duopoly where a Northern firm competes in prices with a Southern firm on both markets. The Northern firm invests in product R&D owing to a competitive disadvantage compared to the Southern firm which benefits from a lower labor cost. The outcome of the R&D activity is uncertain. If successful, vertical differentiation occurs in both markets. The Northern country’s government is the only one policy active and may implement the following trade policy instruments: an import tariff, a production subsidy, an R&D subsidy, a standard of quality, a minimum-price, and an import quota. The results show that the Northern firm’s R&D expenditures increase with each policy instrument except for the import quota. The paper also provides a welfare analysis in order to verify whether or not the Northern government is encouraged to implement these policy instruments.
    Keywords: Trade Policy Instruments, Product Research and Development, North-South Duopoly, Vertical Differentiation.
    Date: 2016
  26. By: Shafat Hosen (University of Chittagong); Ohidul Alam (University of Chittagong and Tongji University); S. M. Sirajul Haque (University of Chittagong)
    Abstract: Deforestation is a major environmental problem in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHTs) of Bangladesh, triggered mostly by shifting cultivation. This study was conducted at Barkal Upazila in Rangamati District within the CHTs to explore the effect of shifting cultivation on biological soil properties. It revealed that both fungal and bacterial population were lower in the soil of shifting cultivation land (SCL) than in the soil of natural forest land (NFL). The highest fungal population was found in the subsurface soil at the hill bottoms in NFL, while the lowest fungal population was found in subsurface soil at the hill bottoms in SCL. While there were a variety of fungal genera present in both SCL and NFL soils (including Rhizophus, Asperzillus, Trichoderna, Peniciliium, Colletrotrichum, and Fusarium), the microbial genus of Mucor (which constitutes about 6 species of molds) was found only in NFL soil. It any case, the soil analysis shows that shifting cultivation has resulted in a great biological change in the soil.
    Keywords: shifting cultivation, soil property, microbial organisms, development, Bangladesh
    Date: 2016–03
  27. By: Mario J. Crucini (Vanderbilt University); Gregor W. Smith (Queen's University)
    Abstract: We study the role of distance and time in statistically explaining price dispersion across 32 Swedish towns for 19 commodities from 1732 to 1914. The resulting large number of relative prices (502,689) allows precise estimation of distance and time effects, and their interaction. We find an effect of distance that declines significantly over time, beginning in the 18th century, well before the arrival of canals, the telegraph, or the railway.
    Keywords: distance effect, law of one price
    JEL: N70
    Date: 2016–03
  28. By: Lee Alston; Bernardo Mueller
    Abstract: Alexander Gerschenkron understood the development of backward countries as a contextual process that varied from country to country depending on which perquisites were present or absent. In the past twenty years, Brazilian agriculture evolved from “backward” to an agricultural powerhouse. Its production and total factor productivity more than doubled. Brazil is in the worlds’ top five producers of coffee, soybeans, oranges, beef and corn. Yet, some segments of agriculture lag far behind. We draw on the insights of Gerschenkron and Albert Hirschman, inter alia to conceptualize the development process. As an illustrative aid we apply fitness landscapes to the process of development. Fitness landscapes are good representations of a contextual view of development. We portray the process as an evolutionary search for good designs across a large, uncertain and not pre-statable set of possibilities. In such circumstances a controlled strategy of following predetermined stages is not effective. Rather we need an approach relying on creativity and imagination to find solutions to specific problems faced by each country.
    JEL: N56 Q15
    Date: 2016–02
  29. By: Markandya, Anil; De Cian, Enrica; Drouet, Laurent; Polanco-Martìnez, Josué M.; Bosello, Francesco
    Abstract: This paper proposes an operationally simple and easily generalizable methodology to incorporate climate change damage uncertainty into Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Uncertainty is transformed into a risk-premium, damage-correction, region-specific factor by extracting damage distribution means and variances from an ensemble of socio economic and climate change scenarios. This risk premium quantifies what society would be willing to pay to insure against the uncertainty of the damages, and it can be considered an add-up to the standard “average damage”. Our computations show the addition to be significant, but highly sensitive to the coefficient of relative risk aversion. Once the climate change damage function incorporates the risk premium into the model, results show a substantial increase in both mitigation and adaptation, reflecting a more conservative attitude by the social planner. Interestingly, adaptation is stimulated more than mitigation in the first half of the century, while the situation reverses afterwards. Over the century, the risk premium correction fosters more mitigation, which doubles, than adaptation, which rises by about 80%.
    Keywords: Risk, Uncertainty, Climate, Adaptation, Mitigation, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q2, Q3, D8, D9, D62,
    Date: 2016–03–10
  30. By: Ravi Kashyap
    Abstract: To trade, or not to trade, that is the question Whether an optimizer can yield the answer Against the spikes and crashes of markets gone wild. To quench one's thirst before liquidity runs dry Or wait till the tide of momentum turns mild. A trader's conundrum is whether (and how much) to trade during a given interval or wait for the next interval when the price momentum is more favorable to his direction of trading. We develop a fundamentally different stochastic dynamic programming model of trading costs based on the Bellman principle of optimality. We use this model to provide insights to market participants by splitting the overall move of the security price during the duration of an order into the Market Impact (price move caused by their actions) and Market Timing (price move caused by everyone else) components. Plugging different distributions of prices and volumes into this framework can help traders decide when to bear higher Market Impact by trading more in the hope of offsetting the cost of trading at a higher price later. We derive formulations of this model under different laws of motion of the security prices. We start with a benchmark scenario and extend this to include multiple sources of uncertainty, liquidity constraints due to volume curve shifts and relate trading costs to the spread.
    Date: 2016–03
  31. By: Gaël Plumecocq (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT2 - Université Toulouse 2 - École Nationale de Formation Agronomique - ENFA, AGIR - AGrosystèmes et développement terrItoRial - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA)); Jean-Pierre Del Corso (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT2 - Université Toulouse 2 - École Nationale de Formation Agronomique - ENFA); Charilaos Kephaliacos (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT2 - Université Toulouse 2 - École Nationale de Formation Agronomique - ENFA)
    Abstract: Pour préserver les ressources environnementales, la puissance publique dispose traditionnellement de deux instruments permettant d’infléchir les comportements économiques : l’incitation financière, qui consiste à indemniser les coûts liés à la préservation de l’environnement ; la réglementation, qui passe par la mise en œuvre de règles ou de normes juridiques coercitives (Bürgenmeier, 2008). Cependant, la capacité de ces deux instruments à influencer durablement les comportements des acteurs dépend de leur durée et de leurs modalités d’application. Le risque est, en effet, que lorsque la puissance publique abandonne l’incitation ou lorsque les contrôles réglementaires se relâchent, les comportements reprennent leurs cours habituel (Dobson, 2007). Les dispositifs de politique publique que nous étudions, ici des Mesures Agro-Environnementales (MAE), ont un caractère incitatif. La nature de leur mise en œuvre rend ces dispositifs particulièrement intéressants en ce qui concerne l’évaluation de leur efficacité environnementale. Les MAE sont des contrats volontaires entre agriculteurs et pouvoirs publics aux termes desquels les agriculteurs sont financièrement incités à adopter des pratiques davantage respectueuses des ressources naturelles. Elles reposent sur des modalités de mise en œuvre leur permettant de s’adapter aux contextes locaux d’application (zones fragiles). Leur pilotage et leur animation sont confiés aux relais habituels des politiques publiques agricoles en région (collectivités locales, chambres d’agriculture, syndicats, etc.) ou plus exceptionnellement, comme c’est le cas dans notre étude, à des coopératives agricoles. Cette délégation de services traduit le rôle accru que peuvent jouer des acteurs privés dans la mise en œuvre de programmes publics liés à des enjeux environnementaux. Dans notre étude, les coopératives et les agriculteurs qui ont contractualisé sont partie prenante d’une démarche visant à limiter les impacts négatifs des pratiques agricoles sur la qualité de l’eau. Pour leur participation à l’animation générale des MAE, les coopératives perçoivent une aide financière de la puissance publique (État français et Union européenne). Ainsi, l’efficacité des MAE dépend ici pour une part essentielle, de l’action de ces coopératives auprès des agriculteurs et notamment de leur capacité à les convaincre d’adopter des pratiques alternatives aux traitements chimiques (recours à des moyens de désherbage mécanique par herse étrille, révision des plans d’assolement et introduction de légumineuses dans les rotations, lutte raisonnée contre les ennemis des cultures, etc.). Évaluer l’efficacité de l’action de ces coopératives dans le processus de changement de pratiques agricoles, comme nous avons l’objectif de le faire dans le cadre de ce chapitre, n’est cependant pas simple. D’abord, le conseil agricole est une activité dont il est difficile de mesurer l’efficacité. La nature immatérielle des échanges donne en effet peu de prise aux évaluations quantitatives (Gadrey, 1996), ou à la formalisation d’un lien causal entre conseil et changement des pratiques. De plus, les stratégies des coopératives peuvent être guidées par des logiques d’accompagnement des agriculteurs et de marchandisation (Goulet, 2011) plus ou moins conciliables entre elles. Les objectifs de préservation de l’environnement peuvent être contradictoires avec les conditions de rentabilité de l’activité économique des coopératives. En conseillant les agriculteurs de limiter leur consommation d’intrants, elles se privent en effet de rentrées financières qui peuvent être nécessaires à leur équilibre économique. L’indemnisation reçue par les coopératives pour la réalisation du suivi technique des agriculteurs contractants peut néanmoins contribuer à désamorcer cette tension potentielle et favoriser l’expérimentation d’autres stratégies, comme par exemple la mise en place de prestations de conseil payant. Ces prestations peuvent alors compenser la diminution du chiffre d’affaires résultant d’une baisse des ventes d’intrants agricoles . Partant des éléments de ce contexte, nous proposons d’analyser et de comparer les stratégies de conseil déployées par deux coopératives agricoles de la région Midi-Pyrénées spécialisées en grandes cultures pour accompagner des agriculteurs dans des démarches MAE. L’une de ces coopératives a fait le choix de confier l’accompagnement de ces dispositifs à des conseillers exclusivement dédiés à cette tâche. L’autre a décidé de le déléguer aux conseillers de secteur habituellement chargés du suivi technico-commercial des agriculteurs. Nous comparerons les deux stratégies de conseil sous l’angle des apprentissages individuels et collectifs générés chez les agriculteurs dans chacune des deux coopératives à l’occasion de cette démarche MAE. Dans les deux cas, nous focaliserons notre attention sur les relations entre conseillers et agriculteurs et plus spécifiquement sur la nature des savoirs et des connaissances échangés. Notre intention est d’examiner en quoi et comment chacune des deux stratégies contribue à transformer les raisons d’agir (i.e. la rationalité) des acteurs impliqués et, par ce biais, à favoriser l’adoption de pratiques davantage économes en intrants chimiques. Une telle entreprise suppose de se doter d’une grille théorique permettant de décomposer les éléments constitutifs de la relation de conseil mise en œuvre dans le cadre des MAE et saisir les transformations de pratiques qui en résultent. Dans une première section nous présentons notre cadre théorique. Celui-ci s’appuie sur les approches de l’économie des services (Gadrey, 1992) et sur le modèle habermassien de l’agir communicationnel (Habermas, 1976, 1981, 1983). Ce deuxième cadre théorique nous sert à rendre en compte de l’influence des échanges discursifs entre conseillers et agriculteurs sur la production et la transformation des savoirs sous-jacents à la rationalité des acteurs. Dans une seconde section, nous appliquons ce cadre théorique aux expériences des deux coopératives de la région Midi-Pyrénées. Nous appréhendons les relations discursives entre les conseillers des coopératives et les agriculteurs adhérents ayant contractualisé une MAE au travers d’entretiens réalisés auprès de ces deux catégories d’acteurs. Ces entretiens ont fait l’objet d’un traitement au moyen de méthodes lexicométriques (Benzécri, 1973 ; Reinert, 1993 ; Lebart et Salem, 1994). Dans une troisième section, nous comparons l’efficacité de chacune des deux stratégies de conseil mises en œuvre par les coopératives. Cette efficacité est appréciée au regard de leur capacité à générer de nouvelles références agronomiques, à renouveler les modalités d’exercice du métier d’agriculteur et plus largement à restructurer les normes de l’action agricole.
    Keywords: Conseil agricole, Politiques publiques, Coopératives, Délibération collective, Agir communicationnel, Confiance, Apprentissages
    Date: 2015
  32. By: Riccardo Crescenzi; Mara Giua
    Abstract: This paper looks at the European Union as a laboratory to study how ‘spatially-targeted’ policies (i.e. the EU Cohesion and Rural Development Policies) interact with sectoral ‘spatially-blind’ policies (i.e. the Common Agricultural Policy - CAP), jointly shaping regional growth dynamics. The analysis of the drivers of regional growth shows that the EU Regional Policy has a positive influence on economic growth in all regions. However, its impact is stronger in the most socio-economically advanced areas and is maximised when its expenditure is complemented by Rural Development and CAP funds. The top-down funding of the CAP seems to be able to concentrate some benefits in the most deprived areas. This suggests that bottom-up policies are not always the best approach to territorial cohesion. Top-down policies may – in some cases – be effective in order to channel resources to the most socioeconomically deprived areas. Territorial cohesion requires the flexible integration and coordination of both bottom-up and top-down approaches.
    Keywords: Regional Policy, European Union, Regional Growth, Rural Development, Common Agricultural Policy
    JEL: O18 R11 R58
    Date: 2016–03
  33. By: Favero, Alice; Mendelsohn, Robert; Sohngen, Brent
    Abstract: The carbon mitigation literature has separately considered using forests to store carbon and as a source of bioenergy. In this paper, we look at both options to reach a 2°C mitigation target. This paper combines the global forest model, GTM, with the IAM WITCH model to study the optimal use of forestland to reach an aggressive global mitigation target. The analysis confirms that using both options is preferable to using either one alone. At first, while carbon prices are low, forest carbon storage dominates. However, when carbon prices pass $235/tCO2, wood bioenergy with CCS becomes increasingly important as a mechanism to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. The use of both mechanisms increases global forestland at the expense of marginal cropland. While the storage program dominates, natural forestland expands. But when the wood bioenergy program starts, natural forestland shrinks as more forests become managed for higher yields.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Woody Biomass, Carbon Sequestration, BECCS, Forestry, Carbon Mitigation, Integrated Assessment Model, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q23, Q42, Q54,
    Date: 2016–03–01

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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.