nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2015‒11‒21
27 papers chosen by
Angelo Zago
Università degli Studi di Verona

  1. Climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world : an integrated assessment of the agriculture and forestry sectors By Havlík,Petr; Valin,Hugo Jean Pierre; Gusti,Mykola; Schmid,Erwin; Forsell,Nicklas; Herrero,Mario; Khabarov,Nikolay; Mosnier,Aline; Cantele,Matthew; Obersteiner,Michael
  2. Climate change adaptation in agriculture: Ex ante analysis of promising and alternative crop technologies using DSSAT and IMPACT: By Robinson, Sherman; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Islam, Shahnila; Cenacchi, Nicola; Creamer, Bernardo; Gueneau, Arthur; Hareau, Guy; Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Mottaleb, Khondoker; Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Robertson, Richard D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sika, Gbegbelegbe; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.
  3. Drivers of food waste and policy responses to the issue: The role of retailers in food supply chains By Adam, Alina
  4. Technical efficiency for Colombian small crop and livestock farmers: A stochastic metafrontier approach for different production systems By Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra; Antonio José Orozco-Gallo
  5. Addressing human capital development in public agriculture extension in Southern Africa: Assessing Mozambique’s experience: By Gêmo, Hélder; Davis, Kristin E.
  6. The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and the potential from rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development By Rozenberg,Julie; Hallegatte,Stephane
  7. Responses to weather and climate : a cross-section analysis of rural incomes By Noack,Frederik; Wunder,Sven; Angelsen,Arild; Börner,Jan
  8. PES as Compensation ? Redistribution of Payments for Forest Conservation in Mexican Common Forests By Gwenole Le Velly; Céline Dutilly Diane; Driss Ezzine de Blas; Chloë Fernandez
  9. Climate shocks, cash crops and resilience: Evidence from colonial tropical Africa By Kostadis J. Papaioannou; Michiel de Haas
  10. Microinsurance decisions: Gendered evidence from rural Bangladesh: By Clarke, Daniel J.; Kumar, Neha
  11. The impact of the use of new technologies on farmers’ wheat yield in Ethiopia: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial: By Abate, Gashaw T.; de Brauw, Alan; Minot, Nicholas; Bernard, Tanguy
  12. Revision of the EU Ecolabel Criteria for: Laundry detergents and industrial and institutional laundry detergents. Preliminary Report By Galyna Medyna; Alicia Boyano Larriba; Renata Barbara Kaps; Josephine Arendorf; Katherine Bojczuk; Edward Sims; Rimousky Menkveld; Laura Golsteijn; Anne Gaasbeek
  13. Reconstructing public expenditure data: Use of classification systems to better measure public spending in agriculture — a Mozambique case study: By Mogues, Tewodaj; Caceres, Leonardo; Fernandez, Francisco A.; Umarji, Mariam B.
  14. Revision of the EU Ecolabel Criteria for: All-purpose cleaners, sanitary cleaners and window cleaners. Preliminary Report By Galyna Medyna; Alicia Boyano Larriba; Renata Barbara Kaps; Josephine Arendorf; Katherine Bojczuk; Edward Sims; Rimousky Menkveld; Laura Golsteijn; Anne Gaasbeek
  15. Environmental reliance, climate exposure, and vulnerability : a cross-section analysis of structural and stochastic poverty By Angelsen,Arild; Dokken,Therese
  16. Climate change impacts on rural poverty in low-elevation coastal zones By Barbier,Edward B.
  17. Disaster risk, climate change, and poverty : assessing the global exposure of poor people to floods and droughts By Winsemius,Hessel C.; Jongman,Brenden; Veldkamp,Ted I.E.; Hallegatte,Stephane; Bangalore,Mook; Ward,Philip J.
  18. From a rise in B to a fall in C? SVAR analysis of environmental impact of biofuels By Pavel Ciaian; d’Artis Kancs; Giuseppe Piroli; Miroslava Rajcaniova
  19. Marine Trade-Offs: Comparing the Benefits of Off-Shore Wind Farms and Marine Protected Areas By Aljona Karlõševa; Sulev Nõmmann; Tea Nõmmann; Evelin Urbel-Piirsalu; Wiktor Budzinski; Mikolaj Czajkowski; Nick Hanley
  20. Demand for a Transgenic Food with a Medical Benefit By Saito, Yoko; Saito, Hisamitsu
  21. Is prohibiting land reallocation enough to promote development of farmland rental markets in China? By Shimokawa, Satoru
  22. Price Dispersion and Informational Frictions: Evidence from Supermarket Purchases By Dubois, Pierre; Perrone, Helena
  23. A Bio-economic Analysis of Community Wildlife Conservation in Zimbabwe By Herbert Ntuli and Edwin Muchapondwa
  24. Cropping intensity gaps: The potential for expanded global harvest areas: By Wu, Wenbin; You, Liangzhi; Chen, Kevin Z.
  25. Managing commodity price risks: The cases of cotton in Burkina Faso and Mozambique and coffee in Ethiopia By Staritz, Cornelia; Tröster, Bernhard; Küblböck, Karin
  26. The Composition of Trade Flows and the Aggregate Effects of Trade Barriers By Scott French
  27. The Economic Feedbacks of Loss of Biodiversity and Ecosystems Services By Anil Markandya

  1. By: Havlík,Petr; Valin,Hugo Jean Pierre; Gusti,Mykola; Schmid,Erwin; Forsell,Nicklas; Herrero,Mario; Khabarov,Nikolay; Mosnier,Aline; Cantele,Matthew; Obersteiner,Michael
    Abstract: This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2°C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest.
    Keywords: Regional Economic Development,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Science of Climate Change,Climate Change Economics,Energy and Environment
    Date: 2015–11–05
  2. By: Robinson, Sherman; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Islam, Shahnila; Cenacchi, Nicola; Creamer, Bernardo; Gueneau, Arthur; Hareau, Guy; Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Mottaleb, Khondoker; Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Robertson, Richard D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sika, Gbegbelegbe; Sulser, Timothy B.; Wiebe, Keith D.
    Abstract: Achieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these challenges and possible solutions over the coming decades requires a rigorous multidisciplinary approach. To answer this challenge, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has developed a system of linked simulation models of global agriculture to do long-run scenario analysis of the effects of climate change and various adaptation strategies. This system includes the core International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), which is linked to water models (global hydrology, water basin management, and water stress on crops) and crop simulation models.
    Keywords: agricultural research, climate change, yields, productivity, adaptation, food security, water, interdisciplinary research, IMPACT model, DSSAT model, Climate-smart agriculture,
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Adam, Alina
    Abstract: One third of the entire food produced for our consumption is either lost or wasted at some point of the food supply chain. The problem of food waste does not only intensify the elementary problem of food insecurity in wasting precious nourishment - originally intended to be consumed - connected with its economic value, but the processing and disposal of food also wastes scarce resources such as water, agricultural land and energy, as well as increasing CO2 emissions. Recent studies identify consumers as the single largest drivers of food waste and praise education and raising awareness amongst them as most promising in limiting domestic food waste. Next to consumers, wasteful practices of the food industry are a predominant driver of food waste in developed countries so that the role of retailers in the generation of food waste across the food supply chain is investigated and policy recommendations with respect to its reduction assessed. Examining the influence of retailers on food date labels and quality standards, proves that food retailers endow immense power to drive food waste across the food supply chain. Keeping this retail power in mind, policy recommendations for reducing domestic food waste and cause-oriented policy recommendations aimed at reducing food waste due to date labelling and quality standards are assessed according to their efficiency.
    Keywords: food waste,food date labelling,food quality standards,retail food waste,retail power on food supply chains,European Year against Food Waste,European food system,EU policy response to food waste
    JEL: M14 Q18 Q58
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra; Antonio José Orozco-Gallo
    Abstract: This paper assesses the efficiency of crop and livestock production in Colombia by using a sample of 1,565 households. The study considers households located in different production systems which differ in geography, climate and soil types. These conditions affect technical efficiency and thus render analysis under the same production frontier as inadequate. For this reason, stochastic metafrontier techniques are preferred, allowing the estimation of technical efficiency within each production system and between production systems in relation to the sector as a whole. Results suggest that households in some production systems could be benefiting from better production conditions due to advantages in the availability of natural resources and climate as well as to more favorable socio-economic conditions. Additionally, we found that, in all systems, households with higher production have higher measures of technical efficiency. Thus, significant gains could be achieved in the sector through measures that contribute to improve the efficiency of households within their production systems and by policies that help reduce the technology gap in relation to the meta-frontier. These policies would bring positive impacts on the quality of life of small farmers and on the productivity of the sector.
    Keywords: Stochastic frontier analysis, technical efficiency, metafrontier production function, Colombia
    JEL: C14 Q12 D24
    Date: 2015–11–12
  5. By: Gêmo, Hélder; Davis, Kristin E.
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to review the human capital development (HCD) challenges in agricultural extension in the southern Africa region, focusing on Mozambique as a country case study. Reviewing HCD in extension is critical because enhancing and maintaining adequate human capital, both in terms of quantity and competence, have been often challenging tasks. Mozambique was selected as a case study because the country has been experiencing particular challenges in public extension HCD due to policy and administrative bureaucratic issues. This is in spite of the acknowledgment by government and key stakeholders of the critical role for extension in contributing to agricultural growth. The study focuses on public extension since it is present in many of the 15 countries of the region. It focuses particularly on services provided (or not provided) to smallholder farmers.
    Keywords: capacity building, extension activities, agricultural extension, Human capital, competence,
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Rozenberg,Julie; Hallegatte,Stephane
    Abstract: The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding poverty and is labeled ?prosperity;? the other scenario is pessimistic and labeled ?poverty.? Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts?in agriculture, health, and natural disasters?are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty, especially through higher food prices and reduction of agricultural production in Africa and South Asia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the prosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive (the poverty scenario).
    Keywords: Regional Economic Development,Science of Climate Change,Rural Poverty Reduction,Climate Change Economics
    Date: 2015–11–09
  7. By: Noack,Frederik; Wunder,Sven; Angelsen,Arild; Börner,Jan
    Abstract: How much do poor rural households rely on environmental extraction from natural ecosystems? And how does climate variability impact their livelihoods? This paper sheds light on these two questions with household income data from the Poverty and Environment Network pantropical data set, combined with climate data for the past three decades. The study finds that extraction of wild resources (from natural forests, bushlands, fallows, etc.) provides on average as much income (about 27 percent) as crops across the smallholder sample. The cross-section data on past reactions to household self-perceived economic shocks and observed production reactions to climate anomalies can, respectively, provide hints about livelihood vulnerability to current climate variability, which is likely to worsen with climate change. Forest extraction did not figure among the most favored response strategies to households? self-perceived economic shocks, but households undertake subtle substitutions in sector production in response to weather anomalies that accentuate suboptimal climatic conditions for cropping. By relying more on forest extraction and wages, households compensate quite successfully for declining crop incomes. This paints a cautiously optimistic picture about fairly flexible rural livelihood reactions to current climate variability, and featuring forests as potentially important in household coping strategies.
    Keywords: Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Rural Poverty Reduction,Climate Change and Environment,Climate Change Economics,Environmental Economics&Policies
    Date: 2015–11–05
  8. By: Gwenole Le Velly (CERDI - CERDI - CNRS [CNRS]); Céline Dutilly Diane (CIRAD - CIRAD - CIRAD); Driss Ezzine de Blas (CIRAD - CIRAD - CIRAD); Chloë Fernandez (DIME - DIME - World Bank)
    Abstract: This article empirically explores the distribution of a Payments for Environmental Services (PES) scheme within Mexican forest communities. The PSA-H is a Mexican federal PES that has been remunerating communities for forest conservation since 2003. During the last decade, Mexico’s National Forestry Commission [CONAFOR] has developed a complex targeting system in order to enroll forests owned by communities with certain socio-economic and ecological characteristics. In the present study we analyze the socio-economic characteristics and land use changes of recipients of the PSA-H to understand how the targeting objectives have been expressed in the field. We conducted a combined survey of 47 ejidos and 163 households in the south of the state of Yucatan – the Cono Sur region. We first investigate, at the ejido-level, what determines the unequal distribution of payments. Second, we analyze the amount of payment received depending on the characteristics of households. Our analysis shows that the way the PSA-H is being distributed by ejidatarios bypasses the initial compensation objective. As a matter of fact, the distribution of the payments reflects past land use trajectories.
    Keywords: PES , Mexico , Communities , Forest conservation , Economic compensation , Distribution of payments
    Date: 2015–11–10
  9. By: Kostadis J. Papaioannou; Michiel de Haas
    Abstract: A rapidly growing body of research examines how weather variability, anomalies and shocks influence economic and societal outcomes. This study investigates the effects of weather shocks on African smallholder farmers in British colonial Africa and intervenes in the debate on the mediating effect of cash crops on resilience to shocks. We employ a dual research strategy, involving both qualitative and econometric analysis. We analyse original primary evidence retrieved from annual administrative records and construct a panel dataset of 151 districts across West, South-central and East Africa in the Interwar Era (1920-1939). Our findings are twofold. First, we qualitatively expose a range of mechanisms leading from drought and excessive rainfall to harvest failure and social upheaval. We then test the link econometrically and find a robust U-shaped relation between rainfall deviation and social upheaval, proxied by annual imprisonment. Second, we review a long-standing and unsettled debate on the impact of cash crop cultivation on farmersÕ resilience to environmental shocks and find that cash crop districts experienced lower levels of social tension and distress in years of extreme rainfall variability.
    Keywords: Environmental and economic history, Africa, colonialism, tropical agriculture, social upheaval
    Date: 2015–11
  10. By: Clarke, Daniel J.; Kumar, Neha
    Abstract: Most index-based insurance products have been developed without giving explicit attention to gender. However, there is ample evidence that shocks affect men and women differently and that they allocate resources in different ways. In Bangladesh it is often assumed that women are less involved in agriculture, and therefore agricultural insurance might not be of interest to rural women. However, this assumption has not been tested in the field. This paper draws from a field research experiment to examine the gendered aspects of willingness to pay for index-based insurance in Bangladesh. Participants were presented with risky lotteries and a specific insurance contract and were asked to choose how much (if any) of the insurance they wanted to buy at a given price. The probability structure (whether the risk was catastrophic or moderate and whether there was high or low basis risk) varied within sessions. The price of the insurance varied across sessions. Each participant was also administered a short questionnaire, which collected information on demographic characteristics, risk preferences, agricultural risks, knowledge of insurance products, and asset ownership. Ninety-seven percent of the participants in the study decided to buy agricultural insurance, with no significant differences between men and women, even though women are less involved in agricultural decisionmaking. We find a small decrease in take-up for the low-probability event, driven by the women in the sample. When we examine the number of units bought, we find that men were likely to buy more units than women. Total wealth, as captured by total land owned, had no effect on units bought. However, among women total wealth mattered and had a positive correlation. Finally, we find that women had less education and lower financial literacy than their male counterparts, as well as less background in understanding agricultural risk. This placed them at a disadvantage when making insurance purchase decisions.
    Keywords: gender, women, insurance, risk, finance, index insurance, risk preference, economic shocks, Willingness to pay,
    Date: 2015
  11. By: Abate, Gashaw T.; de Brauw, Alan; Minot, Nicholas; Bernard, Tanguy
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of the Wheat Initiative technology package promoted by the research and extension systems in Ethiopia on wheat growers in the highlands of the country. The package includes improved wheat seed, a lower seeding density, row planting, fertilizer recommendations, and marketing assistance. The sample of 482 wheat growers was randomly assigned to one of three groups: the full-package intervention group, a marketing-assistance-only group, and a control group. The results suggest that the full-package farmers had 12–13 percent higher yields after controlling for the type of farmer and household characteristics. Implementation of the Wheat Initiative was successful in terms of the distribution of improved seed and fertilizer, though only 61 percent of the intervention group adopted row planting and few farmers received marketing assistance. The measured yield difference may underestimate the true yield difference associated with the technology because of incomplete adoption of the recommended practices by intervention farmers and adoption of some practices by control farmers.
    Keywords: wheats, yields, varieties, wheat technology package, randomized controlled trial, yield impact,
    Date: 2015
  12. By: Galyna Medyna (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Alicia Boyano Larriba (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Renata Barbara Kaps (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Josephine Arendorf (Oakdene Hollins); Katherine Bojczuk (Oakdene Hollins); Edward Sims (Oakdene Hollins); Rimousky Menkveld (Oakdene Hollins); Laura Golsteijn (PRé Consultants); Anne Gaasbeek (PRé Consultants)
    Abstract: The EU Ecolabel criteria for laundry detergents and industrial and institutional laundry detergents are under revision. This revision process will take into account the current market conditions and the EU Ecolabel criteria will aim at addressing the most important environmental impacts of the laundry detergents (consumer and industrial and institutional detergents) in a life cycle perspective. The identification of the main hotspots is carried out in this study by means of an initial extensive literature review and subsequent LCA studies. LCA studies shown that the energy used for heating the washing water during the use stage, has an impact in all the environmental categories under study but especially on fossil fuel depletion and global warming potential. The extraction and processing of raw materials that cause impacts on the categories such as mineral depletion, land use and energy use as well as the emissions to the environment (discharge of wastewater) has also impacts of importance depending on the scenario under consideration. The study reveals that there are several improvement opportunities such as detergent compaction which can bring savings in resources or reduction in the wash temperature. Changes in the detergent formulation can also reduce the impacts in different categories.
    Keywords: environment(91); policy(250); sustainability(210)
    Date: 2015–11
  13. By: Mogues, Tewodaj; Caceres, Leonardo; Fernandez, Francisco A.; Umarji, Mariam B.
    Abstract: This paper on Mozambique is part of a set of four country case studies that take a detailed look at public expenditures in agriculture, and at how the data on expenditures are captured in government financial and budget accounts. The objective of these studies is to unpack the “black box†of country-level public expenditure statistics reported in various cross-country datasets and ultimately to enable the use of existing government accounts and their classification and coding systems to identify levels and compositions of government agriculture expenditures, with a better understanding of what these data are in fact accounting for. This Mozambique case study finds that the administrative classification of public expenditures and budgets should be used as the primary source for reconstructing public expenditures in agriculture, because it offers the richest and most detailed disaggregation of spending data. However, it needs to be complemented by the use of Mozambique’s programmatic classification of expenditures—while this categorization is less detailed, it is necessary in order to identify sources of agricultural spending that emanate from agencies not primarily mandated to support the sector. Our reconstructed agricultural expenditure figures suggest that existing reported figures may underestimate the true total amount of public resources going to the agricultural sector.
    Keywords: public expenditure, agriculture, agricultural policies,
    Date: 2015
  14. By: Galyna Medyna (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Alicia Boyano Larriba (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Renata Barbara Kaps (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Josephine Arendorf (Oakdene Hollins); Katherine Bojczuk (Oakdene Hollins); Edward Sims (Oakdene Hollins); Rimousky Menkveld (Oakdene Hollins); Laura Golsteijn (PRé Consultants); Anne Gaasbeek (PRé Consultants)
    Abstract: The EU Ecolabel criteria for all purpose cleaners, sanitary cleaners and window cleaners are under revision. This revision process will take into account the current market conditions and the EU Ecolabel criteria will aim at addressing the most important environmental impacts of the all-purpose cleaners in a life cycle perspective. The identification of the main hotspots is carried out in this study by means of an initial extensive literature review and subsequent LCA studies. LCA studies showed that sourcing of the raw materials is the most relevant environmental aspect followed by heating up the water during cleaning if needed. Based on the normalisation assessment, by far the most significant impact category for all-purpose cleaners in Europe is natural land transformation. These findings are in agreement with the published literature and can be extrapolated to other all-purpose cleaners such as sanitary cleaners and window cleaners. The study reveals that there are several improvement opportunities such as cleaner concentration which can bring savings in resources or reduction in the wash temperature. Changes in the detergent formulation can also reduce the impacts in different categories.
    Keywords: environment(91); policy(250)
    Date: 2015–11
  15. By: Angelsen,Arild; Dokken,Therese
    Abstract: This paper analyzes environmental reliance, poverty, and climate vulnerability among more than 7,300 households in forest adjacent communities in 24 developing countries. The data are from the detailed, quarterly income recording done by the Poverty Environment Network project. Observed income is combined with predicted income (based on households? assets and other characteristics) to create four categories of households: income and asset poor (structurally poor), income rich and asset poor (stochastically non-poor), income poor and asset rich (stochastically poor), and income and asset rich (structurally non-poor). The income and asset poor generate 29 percent of their income from environmental resources, more than the other three categories. The income poor are more exposed to extreme and variable climate conditions. They tend to live in dryer (and hotter) villages in the dry forest zones, in wetter villages in the wet zones, and experience larger rainfall fluctuations. Among the self-reported income-generating responses to income shocks, extracting more environmental resources ranks second to seeking wage labor. Given high reliance on forest and other environmental resources, a concerning finding is that, in the Africa subsample (dominated by dry forests), the rate of forest loss is more than four times higher for the income&asset poor compared with the income&asset rich. Special attention should be given to the poorest households in dry areas, predominantly in Africa. They are (already) exposed to more extreme climate conditions, they suffer the highest forest loss, and the forest benefits are at risk in global warming scenarios.
    Keywords: Safety Nets and Transfers,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Services&Transfers to Poor,Rural Poverty Reduction,Climate Change Economics
    Date: 2015–11–05
  16. By: Barbier,Edward B.
    Abstract: This paper identifies the low-elevation coastal zone populations and developing regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise and other coastal hazards, such as storm surges, coastal erosion, and salt-water intrusion. The focus is on the rural poor in the low-elevation coastal zone, as their economic livelihoods are especially endangered directly by coastal hazards and indirectly through the impacts of climate change on key coastal and near-shore ecosystems. Using geo-spatially referenced malnutrition and infant mortality data for 2000 as a proxy for poverty, this study finds that just 15 developing countries contain over 90 percent of the world?s low-elevation coastal zone rural poor. Low-income countries as a group have the highest incidence of poverty, which declines somewhat for lower-middle-income countries, and then is much lower for upper-middle-income economies. South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, and Sub-Saharan Africa account for most of the world?s low-elevation coastal zone rural poor, and have a high incidence of poverty among their rural low-elevation coastal zone populations. Although fostering growth, especially in coastal areas, may reduce rural poverty in the low-elevation coastal zone, additional policy actions will be required to protect vulnerable communities from disasters, to conserve and restore key coastal and near-shore ecosystems, and to promote key infrastructure investments and coastal community response capability.
    Keywords: Population Policies,Regional Economic Development,Wetlands,Coastal and Marine Environment,Rural Poverty Reduction
    Date: 2015–11–05
  17. By: Winsemius,Hessel C.; Jongman,Brenden; Veldkamp,Ted I.E.; Hallegatte,Stephane; Bangalore,Mook; Ward,Philip J.
    Abstract: People living in poverty are particularly vulnerable to shocks, including those caused by natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Previous studies in local contexts have shown that poor people are also often overrepresented in hazard-prone areas. However, systematic evidence across countries demonstrating this finding is lacking. This paper analyzes at the country level whether poor people are disproportionally exposed to floods and droughts, and how this exposure may change in a future climate. To this end, household survey data with spatial identifiers from 52 countries are combined with present-day and future flood and drought hazard maps. The paper defines and calculates a ?poverty exposure bias? and finds support that poor people are often overexposed to droughts and urban floods. For floods, no such signal is found for rural households, suggesting that different mechanisms?such as land scarcity?are more important drivers in urban areas. The poverty exposure bias does not change significantly under future climate scenarios, although the absolute number of people potentially exposed to floods or droughts can increase or decrease significantly, depending on the scenario and the region. The study finds some evidence of regional patterns: in particular, many countries in Africa exhibit a positive poverty exposure bias for floods and droughts. For these hot spots, implementing risk-sensitive land-use and development policies that protect poor people should be a priority.
    Keywords: Wetlands,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Rural Poverty Reduction,Hazard Risk Management,Natural Disasters
    Date: 2015–11–05
  18. By: Pavel Ciaian (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); d’Artis Kancs (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Giuseppe Piroli (European Commission – Directorate General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion); Miroslava Rajcaniova (FEM, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra)
    Abstract: This is the first paper that econometrically estimates the impact of rising Bioenergy production on global CO2 emissions. We apply a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach to time series from 1961 to 2009 with annual observation for the world biofuel production and global CO2 emissions. We find that in the medium- to long-run biofuels reduce global CO2 emissions: the CO2 emission elasticities with respect to biofuels range between -0.57 and -0.80. In the short-run, however, biofuels may increase CO2 emissions temporarily. Our findings complement those of life-cycle assessment and simulation models. However, by employing a more holistic approach and obtaining more robust estimates of environmental impact of biofuels, our results are particularly valuable for policy makers.
    Keywords: time-series econometrics, biofuels, CO2 emissions, environment, agriculture, indirect land use changes
    JEL: C14 C22 C51 D58 Q11 Q13 Q42
    Date: 2015–11
  19. By: Aljona Karlõševa (Stockholm Environmental Institute, Tallinn, Estonia); Sulev Nõmmann (Stockholm Environmental Institute, Tallinn, Estonia); Tea Nõmmann (Stockholm Environmental Institute, Tallinn, Estonia); Evelin Urbel-Piirsalu (Stockholm Environmental Institute, Tallinn, Estonia); Wiktor Budzinski (University of Warsaw, Department of Economics); Mikolaj Czajkowski (University of Warsaw, Department of Economics); Nick Hanley (Department of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews)
    Abstract: The drive to increase renewable electricity production in many parts of Europe has led to an increasing concentration of new wind energy sites at sea. This results in a range of environmental impacts which should be taken into account in a benefit-cost analysis of such proposals. In this paper, we use choice modelling to investigate the relative gains and losses from siting new windfarms off the coast of Estonia, relative to the option of creating a new marine protected area. We find that, while respondents are generally opposed to converting marine shoals to conventional wind farms and prefer the establishment of marine protected areas instead, benefits from constructing ‘environmentally-friendly’ wind farms – an alternative program which is also considered by the government – are not statistically different with respect to consumers’ welfare to those associated with creating a new marine protected area. Methodologically, the paper makes a contribution by showing the ability of the latent class mixed logit model to represent both within-and between-class preference heterogeneity, and thus its power to provide a more sophisticated representation of preference heterogeneity than stand-alone latent class or mixed logit approaches. The paper is also presents the first use of the latent class mixed logit model in willingness-to-pay space for environmental goods.
    Keywords: Discrete Choice Experiment, Off-Shore Wind Energy, Marine Protected Areas, Willingness to Pay Space, Latent Class Mixed Logit, Renewable Energy
    JEL: Q51 O13 Q56 Q58 Q42 Q48 Q25 Q28
    Date: 2015–11
  20. By: Saito, Yoko; Saito, Hisamitsu
    Abstract: The perceived health and environmental risks of genetically modified (GM) technology have impeded its diffusion in developed countries. However, GM crops, which can provide direct consumer as well as producer value, have recently been developed. This study applies a stated choice experiment to examine whether the addition of a medical benefit can improve the welfare of the beneficiaries of the newly developed GM variety. Our results show a tradeoff between general worries over GM technology and GM food’s specific health benefits. A marketing program should therefore be designed to inform and persuade consumers of these features.
    Keywords: genetically modified research design, health, stated-preference method.
    JEL: D12 I10 Q13
    Date: 2015–11–18
  21. By: Shimokawa, Satoru
    Abstract: Prohibiting land reallocation improves tenure security, but it remains unclear whether this sufficiently facilitates the development of farmland rental markets in China. To fill this gap, we investigate how farmland rental activities are influenced by full-scale land reallocation (FSLR) and partial land reallocation (PLR), which differ in scale and imposition. Employing the instrumental-variables and the difference-in-differences approaches, we find that PLR substitutes relation-specific contracting in the markets, while FSLR complements arms-length contracting. The different impacts are attributable to the difference in imposition rather than scale. These findings suggest the need for further reforms.
    Keywords: China, Land tenure, Agriculture, Right of property, Agricultural economies, Farmland reallocation, Farmland rental market, Rural China
    JEL: O12 Q12 Q15
    Date: 2015–11
  22. By: Dubois, Pierre; Perrone, Helena
    Abstract: Traditional demand models assume that consumers are perfectly informed about product characteristics, including price. However, this assumption may be too strong. Unannounced sales are a common supermarket practice. As we show, retailers frequently change position in the price rankings, thus making it unlikely that consumers are aware of all deals o¤ered in each period. Further empirical evidence on consumer behavior is also consistent with a model with price information frictions. We develop such a model for horizontally di¤erentiated products and structurally estimate the search cost distribution. The results show that in equilibrium, consumers observe a very limited number of prices before making a purchase decision, which implies that imperfect information is indeed important and that local market power is potentially high. We also show that a full information demand model yields severely biased price elasticities.
    Keywords: imperfect information, price dispersion, sales, search costs, product dif- ferentiation, consumer behavior, demand estimation, price elasticities.
    JEL: D4 D83 L11 L66
    Date: 2015–10
  23. By: Herbert Ntuli and Edwin Muchapondwa
    Abstract: This paper uses a bioeconomic model to analyze wildlife conservation in two habitats adjacent to a national park by two types of communities in the context of Southern Africa. One community is made up of peasant farmers operating under a benefit-sharing scheme (CAMPFIRE) while the other is made up of commercial farmers practising game farming in a conservancy (the Save Valley Conservancy). Both communities exploit wildlife by selling hunting licenses to foreign hunters but with different levels of success. The park agency plays a central role by authorizing the harvest quota for each community. We formulate a bioeconomic model for the three agents, optimize the market problem for each agent and compare the outcomes with the social planner’s solution. Our results show that the level of anti-poaching enforcement by the park agency is suboptimal, while anti-poaching effort exerted by the conservancy community achieves social optimality. CAMPFIRE communities exert more poaching effort than what the social planner would recommend. Our model shows that an improvement in community institutions might have a significant impact on growth of the wildlife stock through their role in constraining behaviour. Thus, institutional reforms in benefit-sharing schemes such as CAMPFIRE could result in the local community behaving like game farming communities such as the Save Valley Conservancy.
    Keywords: Bio-economics, wildlife conservation, CAMPFIRE community, conservancy community
    JEL: Q20 Q57 Q28
    Date: 2015
  24. By: Wu, Wenbin; You, Liangzhi; Chen, Kevin Z.
    Abstract: To feed the world’s growing population, more food needs to be produced. In addition to cropland expansion, which faces a variety of constraints, increasing cropping intensity may provide a promising means of boosting global crop production. Yet information on the size and location of cropping intensity gaps—the difference between the maximum cropping intensity that is theoretically possible and the cropping intensity that is realized today—for current global croplands, and how much additional production can potentially be achieved by closing these gaps, is lacking. To address this issue, this study proposes a spatial approach to exploring cropping intensity gaps around the year 2000. We identify these gaps by estimating the potential multiple cropping systems and actual multiple cropping systems for current global croplands and then calculating the difference. An adapted GAEZ (Global Agro-Ecological Zone) method was used to estimate potential multiple cropping systems on the basis of meteorological data, while actual multiple cropping systems were derived from satellite-based observations. The results show that global average cropping intensity gaps are 0.48 taking temperature constraints into account and 0.17 taking temperature and precipitation constraints into account. The Latin American region has the largest concentration of cropping intensity gaps under both scenarios, followed by Africa and Asia. We also find that most food-insecure countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa south of the Sahara, as indicated by higher Global Hunger Index scores, have high or moderate cropping intensity gaps in both scenarios. Reducing the cropping intensity gaps would provide an opportunity to increase food production and help people escape extreme hunger. We estimate that global harvests on current croplands can be expanded by an amount equivalent to another 7.36 million and 2.71 million square kilometers (km2), respectively, under the temperature-limited and the temperature- and precipitation-limited scenarios. Latin America has the largest potential to achieve additional harvest area equivalents (more than 1.28 million km2) by closing cropping intensity gaps, followed by Asia (1.00 million km2). However, it must also be noted that although increasing cropping intensity can boost annual crop production per unit of cropland, this approach is not necessarily always appropriate, and the trade-offs between reducing cropping intensity gaps and caring for the environment must be considered. Only if cropping intensity can be increased sustainably is this a potential strategy for enabling global food production to meet rising food demands.
    Keywords: cropping systems, farmland, cultivated land, agroecological zones, cropping intensity gap, potential multiple cropping intensity, actual multiple cropping intensity, harvest area, agroecological potential,
    Date: 2015
  25. By: Staritz, Cornelia; Tröster, Bernhard; Küblböck, Karin
    Abstract: Price instability is a major concern for commodity producers in developing countries. Commodity derivative markets have become the central pricing mechanism for international commodity trade. This is problematic given the high volatility and increased short-termism of these markets in the context of financialisation. The effects on producers depend on the market structure in producer countries. Burkina Faso and Mozambique have different types of national cotton price stabilization schemes in place while global coffee price fluctuations are transmitted directly to producers in Ethiopia. Policy reforms are required at two fronts - on commodity derivative markets to reduce excessive speculation and stabilize commodity prices and in producer countries to ensure fair and stable prices for producers.
    Date: 2015
  26. By: Scott French (School of Economics, UNSW Business School, UNSW)
    Abstract: A widely used class of quantitative trade models implicitly assumes that patterns of comparative advantage take a specific form such that they have no influence over the effect of trade barriers on aggregate trade flows and welfare. In this paper, I relax this assumption, developing a framework in which to analyze the role of interactions among countries' patterns of comparative advantage in determining the aggregate effects of trade barriers. My model preserves much of the tractability of standard aggregate quantitative trade models while allowing for the effects of any pattern of comparative advantage, across many products and countries, to be taken into account. After fitting my model to product-level trade data, I find that the composition of trade flows is quantitatively important in determining the welfare gains from trade and the aggregate effects of trade barriers. A key finding is that the welfare gains from trade tend to be larger and more skewed in favor of low-income countries than an aggregate model would suggest.
    Keywords: international trade, welfare, composition, product level, comparative advantage, trade barriers, gravity, trade cost elasticity, developing countries
    JEL: F11 F14 F17 O19
    Date: 2015–10
  27. By: Anil Markandya
    Keywords: biodiversity, ecosystem services, biodiversité, écosystèmes
    JEL: O44 Q22 Q57
    Date: 2015–11–19

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