nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2015‒10‒17
37 papers chosen by

  1. Production effects of wetland conservation: evidence from France By Moriah B. Bostian.; Pierre Dupraz; Jean Joseph Minviel
  2. The Impact of Food Price Shocks on Consumption and Nutritional Patterns of Urban Mexican Households By Juárez-Torres Miriam
  3. The Future of Forests: Emissions from Tropical Deforestation with and without a Carbon Price, 2016–2050 - Working Paper 411 By Jonah Busch, Jens Engelmann
  4. Climate risk and state-contingent technology adoption: The role of risk preferences and probability weighting By Holden , Stein T.; Quiggin, John
  6. Formalizing rural land rights in West Africa : early evidence from a randomized impact evaluation in Benin By Goldstein,Markus P.; Houngbedji,Kenneth; Kondylis,Florence; O'Sullivan,Michael B.; Selod,Harris
  7. German Farmers' Perception of Climate Change Effects and Determinants Influencing Their Climate Awareness By Jänecke, Aileen; Eisele, Marius; Reinmuth, Evelyn; Steinbach, Jennifer; Aurbacher, Joachim
  8. A Hedonic Approach Towards Explaining Market Shares of Organic Food - Evidence from Swiss Household Data By Götze, Franziska; Mann, Stefan; Ferjani, Ali; Kohler, Andreas; Heckelei, Thomas
  9. Is Organic Agriculture and Fair Trade Certification a way out of Crisis? Evidence from Black Pepper Farmers in India By Parvathi, Priyanka; Waibel, Hermann
  10. Current Structure and Future Challenges of the Agricultural Sector By Majah-Leah V. Ravago; Arsenio M. Balisacan
  11. Impact of Rainfall Shocks on Child Health: Evidence from India By Vibhuti Mendiratta
  13. EXPOSSURE TO RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE By Ayenew, Habtamu Yesigat; Sauer, Johannes; Abate-Kassa, Getachew
  14. Readiness of the Philippine Agriculture and Fisheries Sectors for the 2015 ASEAN Economic Community: A Rapid Appraisal By Clarete, Ramon L.; Villamil, Isabela Rosario G.
  15. Synopsis: 2015 Global hunger index: Armed conflict and the challenge of hunger By von Grebmer, Klaus; Bernstein, Jill; Prasai, Nilam; Yin, Sandra; Yohannes, Yisehac; Towey, Olive; Sonntag, Andrea; Neubauer, Larissa; de Waal, Alex
  16. Food Choices and Store Proximity By Rahkovsky, Ilya; Snyder, Samantha
  18. Heterogeneous agrifood firms, agricultural prices and access to foreign markets By Léo Le Mener
  19. The feasibility of index-based insurance as a risk management tool in Central Asia By Grigoreva, Diana; Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Aw-Hassan, Aden; Biradar, Chandrashekar; Nurbekov, Aziz
  20. Public Distribution System vs. Market: Analysis of Staple Food Consumption in India Using QUAIDS with Rationing By Kozicka, Marta; Kalkuhl, Matthias; Weber, Regine
  21. Retail Sector Transformation in Russia By Komendrovskaya, Irina; Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Glauben, Thomas
  22. Does the number of discrete choice alternatives matter for respondents’ stated preferences? The case of tap water quality improvements By Mikołaj Czajkowski; Marek Giergiczny; Ewa Zawojska
  25. Women’s land claims in the Acholi region of Northern Uganda: what can be learned from what is contested By Julian Hopwood
  27. Uzbekistan as an emerging player in the Eurasian wheat belt region: Opportunities and challenges By Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Djanibekov, Nodir; Voigt, Peter
  28. Empirical modeling of production decisions of heterogeneous farmers with random parameter models By Philippe Koutchade; Alain Carpentier; Fabienne Féménia
  29. Conservation vs. equity: Can payments for environmental services achieve both? By Vorlaufer, Miriam; Ibanez, Marcela; Juanda, Bambang; Wollni, Meike
  30. Supplier dynamics in horticultural export chains – Evidence from Ecuador. Revised version. By Romero, Cristina; Wollni, Meike
  31. Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) By Derek Anderson; Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko; Paulo Drummond; Pedro Espaillat; Dirk Muir
  32. Explaining total factor productivity growth in German dairy farming: A Malmquist Index Analysis By Allendorf, Joseph
  33. The Economics of Universal Service: an Analysis of Entry Subsidies for Rural Broadband By Andre Boik
  34. The external impact of the Green Economy: An analysis of the environmental implications of the Green Economy By Villanueva Cortés, Paloma
  35. Demand Driven Markets and the Importance of Demand Rationing By Prehn, Sören; Glauben, Thomas; Loy, Jens-Peter
  37. The output effects of commodity price volatility: Evidence from exporting countries By Hachula, Michael; Hoffmann, Sebastian

  1. By: Moriah B. Bostian.; Pierre Dupraz; Jean Joseph Minviel
    Abstract: This study takes a production function approach to examine the effects of farm wetland area for a set of producers in the Limousin region of France. By combining data from a recent survey of regional wetland areas with detailed farm-level production panel data, we find that maintaining wetland areas poses significant costs to farmers, in terms of foregone production value. These results help to explain the relatively low participation rate in agri-environmental schemes targeted to wetlands by farmers in this region. This represents a new application of the production function approach to estimate the cost of maintaining wetlands on working agricultural land, and is one of few studies to examine agricultural wetland costs outside of the US. This framework could be used to further inform payment incentives for agri-environmental schemes more generally.
    Keywords: wetlands, agri-environmental schemes, agricultural production, conservation payments, France
    JEL: Q15 Q51 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2015
  2. By: Juárez-Torres Miriam
    Abstract: During the 2000s, recurrent food price shocks due to volatility in international markets and extreme weather events affected consumption and nutritional patterns of Mexican urban households. This research quantifies the impacts of food price shocks on the purchase of nutrients and on the weight gain of children in urban Mexican households. We find differentiated patterns of food consumption across income quintiles, which result in heterogeneous effects of price shocks on the purchase of nutrients and on weight gain according to age and sex in children. In particular, cereal price shocks are more detrimental and more regressive than price shocks on other categories like meats or beverages.
    Keywords: Food price elasticities; Nutrient elasticities; Food security; Nutrition; Welfare
    JEL: D12 C31 O12
    Date: 2015–08
  3. By: Jonah Busch, Jens Engelmann
    Abstract: We project the future of tropical deforestation from 2016-2050 with and without carbon pricing policies, based on 18 million observations of historical forest loss spanning 101 tropical countries. Our spatial projections of future deforestation incorporate topography, accessibility, protected status, potential agricultural revenue, and a robust observed inverted-U-shaped trajectory of forest cover loss with respect to remaining forest cover. We project that in the absence of new forest conservation policies, 289 million hectares of tropical forest will be cleared from 2016-2050—an area about the size of India and one-seventh of Earth’s tropical forest area in the year 2000. We project that this tropical deforestation will release 169 GtCO2 to the atmosphere from 2016-2050—one-sixth of the remaining carbon that can be emitted if the rise in Earth’s temperature is to be likely held below 2 °C. We estimate that a universally applied carbon price of $20/tCO2 from 2016-2050 would avoid 41 GtCO2 of emissions from tropical deforestation while a carbon price of $50/tCO2 would avoid 77 GtCO2. These prices correspond to average costs to land users of $9/tCO2 and $21/tCO2 respectively. By comparison if all tropical countries implemented anti-deforestation policies as effective as those in the Brazilian Amazon post-2004 then 60 GtCO2 of emissions would be avoided. Our analysis corroborates the conclusions of previous studies that reducing tropical deforestation is a sizable and low-cost option for mitigating climate change. In contrast to previous studies, we project that the amount of emissions that can be avoided at low-cost by reducing tropical deforestation will increase rather than decrease in future decades. Encouragingly, 89% of potential low-cost emission reductions are located in the 47 tropical countries that have already signaled their intention to reduce emissions from deforestation in exchange for performance-based finance (REDD+).
    Keywords: Agriculture, Climate Change, Forests, Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) Curves, REDD+
    JEL: Q11 Q23 Q24 Q54
    Date: 2015–08
  4. By: Holden , Stein T. (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Quiggin, John (School of Economics, University of Queensland)
    Abstract: Climate risk represents an increasing threat to poor and vulnerable farmers in drought-prone areas of Africa. This study assesses the maize and fertilizer adoption responses of food insecure farmers in Malawi, where Drought Tolerant (DT) maize was recently introduced. A Field experiment, eliciting relative risk aversion, loss aversion and subjective probability weighting parameters of farmers, is combined with a detailed farm household survey. A state-contingent production model with cumulative prospect theory preferences is estimated. More risk averse households were more likely to have adopted DT maize, less likely to have adopted other improved maize varieties and less likely to have dis-adopted traditional local maize. Exposure to past drought shocks stimulated adoption of DT maize and dis-adoption of local maize. Over-weighting of small probabilities was associated with less use of fertilizer on all maize types.
    Keywords: Climate risk; state-contingent production; subjective probability weighting; loss aversion; technology adoption; adaptation; maize; Drought Tolerant maize; fertilizer use.
    JEL: C93 D03 O33 Q12 Q18
    Date: 2015–10–12
  5. By: Ayenew, Habtamu Yesigat; Sauer, Johannes; Abate-Kassa, Getachew; Schickramm, Lena
    Abstract: This paper systematically investigates the role of the quality of rural employment on agricultural production efficiency in developing countries, taking Ethiopia and Tanzania as cases. We use data of the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) collected in 2011. In the analysis, an output-oriented distance function approach that accounts for different technological, demographic, socio-economic, institutional and quality of rural employment indicators is applied. The findings of the analysis support the idea that the quality of rural employment could be seen as an effective element of rural development policies and strategies in sub-Saharan Africa. Better integration of quality rural employment aspects (creation of jobs, improving quality of jobs, promoting public employment programs etc.) contribute to improve technical efficiency in agricultural production.
    Keywords: Quality of rural employment, distance function, efficiency, poverty reduction, Food Security and Poverty, Labor and Human Capital, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Goldstein,Markus P.; Houngbedji,Kenneth; Kondylis,Florence; O'Sullivan,Michael B.; Selod,Harris
    Abstract: This paper presents early evidence from the first large-scale randomized-controlled trial of a land formalization program. The study examines the links between land demarcation and investment in rural Benin in light of a model of agricultural production under insecure tenure. The demarcation process involved communities in the mapping and attribution of land rights; cornerstones marked parcel boundaries and offered lasting landmarks. Consistent with the model, improved tenure security under demarcation induces a shift toward long-term investment on treated parcels. This investment does not yet coincide with gains in agricultural productivity. The analysis also identifies significant gender-specific effects. Female-managed landholdings in treated villages are more likely to be left fallow?an important soil fertility investment. Women further respond to an exogenous tenure security change by moving production away from relatively secure, demarcated land and toward less secure land outside the village to guard those parcels.
    Keywords: Municipal Housing and Land,Common Property Resource Development,Urban Housing,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Political Economy
    Date: 2015–10–08
  7. By: Jänecke, Aileen; Eisele, Marius; Reinmuth, Evelyn; Steinbach, Jennifer; Aurbacher, Joachim
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the attitude of German farmers towards climate change effects and aims to identify determinants affecting their perception of weather conditions. For this purpose, descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression approaches were applied. Data was collected using a questionnaire survey, which was conducted in spring 2013 among 173 German farmers in the two regions Swabian Alb and Kraichgau. The analyses revealed that four main factors influence the perception of weather variability. In particular, respondents’ age, the region where the farm is located, the share of agricultural income and the farm profit are statistically significantly related with the degree of support for the respective weather statements. The findings further indicated age of farmer, location of the farm, method of production and farm size as significant predictors concerning the farm leader’s perception of climate change consequences. As descriptive statistics revealed, the majority of farmers perceive for their location a change in weather conditions, an increase in weather variability as well as decreasing predictability of weather and expect consequences for their farming activities due to these developments.
    Keywords: perception, climate change effects, German farmers, regression analysis, Agribusiness, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2015
  8. By: Götze, Franziska; Mann, Stefan; Ferjani, Ali; Kohler, Andreas; Heckelei, Thomas
    Abstract: The market share of organic food in Switzerland is high compared with that in other European countries, and has grown notably in recent years. However, little is known about why the market share of certain organic food products is higher than that of others. Swiss household expenditure data distinguishing between organic and conventional products allow an analysis at the product level. As a result, factors which determine the market share level of different organic food products are identified. Based on the results of the analysis, the driving factors are categorised into three dimensions. First, a low level of processing is positively related to a high organic market share, suggesting that communicating the benefits of organic food is more successful for unprocessed than for processed products. Second, it appears that the organic consumer in Switzerland is rather critical about buying products that are relatively expensive compared to their conventional counterpart. Products with high price premiums as well as products that are of particular importance for the household in terms of its food budget, therefore, have a clear disadvantage on the market, suggesting that consumers of organic food are price-conscious. Third, Swiss consumers seem to have a high preference for domestically produced organic products, since the characteristic of being an imported product is negatively related to the organic market share level. The results give a first understanding of what is important to Swiss consumers when it comes to the consumption of organic food and imply that supporting organic food production in Switzerland is still promising from a policy perspective as long as the price premium for organic quality stays at a reasonable level.
    Keywords: Consumer Behaviour, Hedonic Analysis, Organic Food, Non-Linear Regression Model, Switzerland, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Parvathi, Priyanka; Waibel, Hermann
    Abstract: This article examines the impact of a joint organic and fair trade certification on productivity and material costs based on data collected from 277 smallholder black pepper farmers in India. We estimate a multinomial endogenous switching regression along with a counterfactual analysis to ascertain the effects of certification. Our results indicate that certified farmers have higher yields. Counterfactual study shows that conventional farmers can increase their yields by 35% with less than half the costs by venturing into organic and fair trade networks. Further, treatment and transitional heterogeneity effects reveal that a joint organic and fair trade certification has the strongest effect on productivity for the less successful farmers.
    Keywords: Impact evaluation, Eendogenous Switching Regression, Organic Farming, Fair Trade, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Majah-Leah V. Ravago (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Arsenio M. Balisacan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman)
    Abstract: This chapter provides an overview of the patterns, composition, policies and institutional environment that have influenced the performance of the agriculture sector in recent years. The focus is on the changing dynamics of supply and demand for agriculture as a whole and for key commodity groups and livestock in the context of a growing economy, urbanization, and regional market integration. It concludes with a discussion of the policy and institutional challenges to making agriculture a key pillar in the country’s pursuit of inclusive growth, poverty reduction, and sustainable development.
    Keywords: Philippine agriculture, structural transformation, poverty
    JEL: Q10 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2015–10
  11. By: Vibhuti Mendiratta (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: While there is evidence of discrimination against girls in the allocation of resources within a household under normal circumstances, it would be worthwhile to explore the effect of extreme conditions such as rainfall shocks on the outcomes of surviving girls and boys. In this paper, I estimate the impact of rainfall shocks in early childhood on the anthropometric outcomes of girls and boys aged 13-36 months in rural India. I find that adverse negative rainfall shocks (in utero and first year after birth) negatively impact height for age and weight for age for both girls and boys. Further, I explore two channels through which rainfall affects child health: by affecting the relative price of parent's time in childcare and through income (as rainfall generates variation in income through its effect on agricultural output). I find that positive rainfall has a positive effect on agricultural yield and arguably income in India. This is further supported by the finding that negative shocks are harder to insure in poorer states and poorer households as reflected by the poor anthropometric outcomes of children.
    Keywords: Anthropometric outcomes,Rainfall,India
    Date: 2015–10
  12. By: Wuepper, David; Sauer, Johannes
    Abstract: We investigate whether colonial experiences in the Gold Coast still affect the performance of agribusiness in Ghana today. To this end, we surveyed 400 pineapple farmers in Ghana and connected this new dataset to data on the locations of Christian missionary schools and the performance of colonial cocoa cooperatives, from the first half of the 20th century. We find an effect of both historical variables on the performance of contract farming. The causal channel is a persistent change in culture: the performance of the colonial cocoa cooperatives changed peoples’ belief in their own capabilities to achieve business success (self-efficacy). The Christian missionary schools, in contrast, are found to have reduced village social capital.
    Keywords: Contract-Farming, Rural Development, Cultural Evolution, Self-Efficacy, Social Capital, Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Institutional and Behavioral Economics,
    Date: 2015
  13. By: Ayenew, Habtamu Yesigat; Sauer, Johannes; Abate-Kassa, Getachew
    Abstract: Using a moment based approach, introduced by Antle for producers’ risk behavior elicitation, we develop an empirical model to evaluate the implication of risk preferences on farm portfolio decisions. With a comprehensive household level panel data of rounds of 2004 and 2009, we estimate risk aversion behavior of farm households in uncertain climate and market imperfections. To solve the problem of endogeneity, the risk parameter is instrumented in a two stage maximum likelihood estimation technique, and used as a determinant of the level of farm level diversification. We find that farmers with higher level of relative risk premium will more likely opt for diversified farms. The engagement of farm households to off and non-farm income generating activities could likely reduce the on-farm diversification level. On-farm diversification and engagement in off-farm and non-farm activities can be considered as substitutable risk mitigation strategies
    Keywords: diversification, Ethiopia, off-farm, risk, smallholder, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2015
  14. By: Clarete, Ramon L.; Villamil, Isabela Rosario G.
    Abstract: The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) transforms the ASEAN region into a single market and production base by 2015. This promotes greater competition for the Philippine agriculture and fisheries (A&F) sectors. With the country`s A&F sector lagging behind its neighboring ASEAN countries, there are fears that local industries will be displaced. The Global Trade Analysis model suggests an increase in both imports and exports as an impact of tariff reforms. The sectors ready for integration include mangoes, bananas, and pineapples. For the coconut sector, intensification of planting, replanting, and product diversification are needed to enhance and maintain supply. Production increase for perishable commodities, such as onions and meats, entails the need for lower power costs. With corn as a potential export commodity, cultivation areas are being expanded and agricultural policies are being aligned with the policies of the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. To reap the benefits from the AEC, several measures must be performed, i.e., diversification and product quality upgrading. Public support must focus on providing adequate infrastructure, general services, research and development, and extension programs. Particularly, this paper recommends modernizing the country`s value chains in the A&F sector to effectively mobilize A&F exports into the ASEAN market. This is done by creating industry road maps to equip major stakeholders knowledge on market opportunities; organizing the value chains and effectively assisting their various participants to comply with international trade product standards, processes, and regulations; building capability for effectively managing the risk of disputes among value chain participants; and promoting the cooperation among farmers, small and medium enterprises, and large enterprises within these agro-based value chains.
    Keywords: Philippines, ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), value chain, agriculture and fisheries, tariff reforms
    Date: 2015
  15. By: von Grebmer, Klaus; Bernstein, Jill; Prasai, Nilam; Yin, Sandra; Yohannes, Yisehac; Towey, Olive; Sonntag, Andrea; Neubauer, Larissa; de Waal, Alex
    Abstract: The 2015 Global Hunger Index (GHI) report—the tenth in an annual series—presents a multidimensional measure of national, regional, and global hunger. It shows that the world has made progress in reducing hunger since 2000, but still has a long way to go, with levels of hunger still serious or alarming in 52 countries. The theme of this year’s report is armed conflict and the challenge of hunger. Conflict and hunger are closely associated. Indeed, conflict is the main cause of persistent severe hunger, and countries with the lowest levels of food security are often engaged in or recently emerged from war. Although conflict and hunger often travel hand in hand, history has shown that hunger need not result from conflict.
    Keywords: hunger; nutrition; undernutrition; malnutrition; wasting; stunting; child mortality; children; underweight; obesity; famine; food security; nutrition security; food supply; food consumption; food production; agricultural policies; indicators; conflict; civil wars; migration; refugees; sustainable development goal; sustainability; developing countries; developed countries; industrialized countries
    Date: 2015
  16. By: Rahkovsky, Ilya; Snyder, Samantha
    Abstract: In 2010, 9.7 percent of the U.S. population lived in low-income areas more than 1 mile from the nearest supermarket. The diet quality of these consumers may be compromised by their food environment. Some may be unable to reach supermarkets regularly or without effort, instead buying food from nearer stores that offer less healthy food products. This report investigates the correlation between households that live in low income,low-access (LILA) areas and their purchases of 14 major food groups that vary in dietary quality. The report finds a modest negative effect, particularly among urban LILA consumers, and this effect is only slightly alleviated when LILA consumers travel farther from their homes to purchase food.
    Keywords: access to supermarkets, food, transportation, food environment, low-income, diet and health, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2015–09
  17. By: Allendorf, Joseph; Hirsch, Stefan
    Abstract: This paper presents factor productivity growth measures in the European food industry over the period 2001-2008 by using data envelopment analysis. The Malmquist productivity growth indicator is used to identify the contributions of technical change, technical efficiency change and scale change. The study contributes to the literature by analysing the dairy and meat processing industries in eight European countries based on a sample of 4,584 firms. Results will underline differences between these countries concerning the productivity growth measures as well as differences between different company sizes. Further research should include an impulse response analysis for the effect of investment spikes.
    Keywords: Total factor productivity, Malmquist-Index, dairy industry, meat industry, Industrial Organization, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2015
  18. By: Léo Le Mener
    Abstract: We analyze how a change in agricultural input price impacts the selection process and market shares in foreign markets for firms in the final agrifood good sector. To do so we develop a model with heterogeneous firms and intermediate good where input use is technologically constrained. We show that the effect of input price depends on labor productivity and fixed costs. Moreover, we show that a decrease in input price in all countries can decrease the probability to enter foreign markets, through export or horizontal foreign direct investment (HFDI). Finally, we show that the decrease of the intermediate good price always increases the share of HFDI relative to export, even if it can modify the HFDI-Export trade-off in favor of HFDI or export.
    Keywords: Horizontal Foreign Direct Investment, exports, firm heterogeneity, processing sectors, agricultural prices
    JEL: F12 L11 Q18
    Date: 2015
  19. By: Grigoreva, Diana; Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Aw-Hassan, Aden; Biradar, Chandrashekar; Nurbekov, Aziz
    Abstract: This study investigates suitable several indexes, as well as risk coping potential of index-based insurance in Central Asia. This study discusses the challenges of index selection for irrigated systems and compares the results with rainfed systems. For this purpose, suitability and impact of area-yield, irrigation water intake at regional level, as well as remote sensing based indexes are analyzed. The results of the study show that selection of index for the irrigated systems is more complex than rainfed systems and more caution is required in order to minimize the basis risk.
    Keywords: Risk management, crop insurance, weather Index-based insurance, climate risk, irrigation water, NDVI, crop yield, Central Asia, Agribusiness,
    Date: 2015
  20. By: Kozicka, Marta; Kalkuhl, Matthias; Weber, Regine
    Abstract: The current study explains the impact of the Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS) in India on total staple food consumption. The study is based on the 68th round of the National Sample Survey of Household Consumer Expenditure. First, we show that under-purchase from TPDS is due to the supply constraints. Next, we estimate a three-­stage demand system for staple foods. In the third stage, we estimate a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demad System with Rationing, where the TPDS grains are treated as strictly rationed goods and the rest of the consumption goods in the system are the market consumed staples.
    Keywords: QUAIDS with rationing, Targeted Public Distribution System, India, food subsidy, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2015
  21. By: Komendrovskaya, Irina; Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: Russia’s agrifood industry, including processing, wholesale, and retail underwent tremendous changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In this transition from the planned to a market economy, supermarkets emerged as important players in Russia, affecting agrifood system via organizational and institutional changes including centralization of procurement from farmers and demanding private standards on product quality and safety.This study examines the penetration of supermarket chains and factors contributing to development of modern retailing in Russia. The panel data at regional level is used in order to investigate the factors influencing on modernization of retail sector in Russia.
    Keywords: Agrifood system, food supply chain, food security, sanctions, import, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy,
    Date: 2015
  22. By: Mikołaj Czajkowski (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Marek Giergiczny (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Ewa Zawojska (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: Contingent valuation is among the most widely used techniques for studying consumers’ preferences. Nevertheless, whether respondents reveal their true preferences in contingent valuation surveys is still the subject of academic debate. The existing literature indicates that the truthful disclosure of preferences pivots on the number of alternatives presented in a single choice task. On a theoretical basis, the use of a two-alternative task format has long been recommended because of its incentive-compatible properties, which ensure that respondents’ disclosure of their true preferences constitutes their optimal strategy. However, the empirical literature presents nascent evidence that providing more than two choice alternatives may increase the respondents’ likelihood of finding an option that satisfactorily matches their preferences; consequently, a multiple-alternative task format likely enhances the accuracy of preference disclosures. Furthermore, empirical studies often employ multiple alternatives for a single task because of statistical efficiency gains. The lack of consensus about the impact of the number of alternatives on respondents’ truthfulness when stating their preferences in contingent valuation surveys motivates this study. Using data from a discrete choice experiment, we examine whether willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates depend on the number of alternatives provided for a single choice task. We employ a split-sample design that uses two- and three-alternative formats in a contingent valuation survey of proposed public policies for the improvement of tap water quality (iron and chorine content, hardness) in Milanówek, a town in the Warsaw agglomeration in Poland. Drawing on a generalized mixed logit model with scale heterogeneity, we find no significant differences in the mean WTP values elicited with two- and three-alternative tasks, while the WTP estimates based on three-alternative tasks appear to have relatively lower standard errors compared with two-alternative tasks. This finding indicates that using three or more alternatives per choice task may offer a way to increase efficiency without biasing the results.
    Keywords: stated preference methods; contingent valuation; discrete choice experiment; incentive compatibility; number of alternatives; field study; tap water quality
    JEL: Q51 Q25 D12 D82 C25
    Date: 2015
  23. By: Aouinait, Camille
    Abstract: Since a few decades, both developed and developing countries are facing increasing burdens on environmental resources, institutional, political and economic changes. The liberalization is most seen as positive to enhance farmers and smallholders’ incomes at first. Switzerland is under pressure regarding the trade of commodities. The imported products have lower prices than indigenous products. This might induce a lower competitiveness of the sector. Therefore, the market dynamics could change and so the behavior of the market players; farmers, transformers, wholesalers and retailers.
    Keywords: Trade liberalization, swiss fruit production, competitiveness, prices, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy,
    Date: 2015
  24. By: Röhrig, Maren; Hardeweg, Bernd
    Abstract: Apple production is afflicted with various risks. As it is a permanent crop, apple producers are less flexible to react upon undesirable events. As a result, for a sustainable economic performance, the determination of efficient farming options, as a combination of the production system and risk management instruments (RMI), is crucial. Our investigation focuses on this choice problem utilizing stochastic dominance criteria, which apply to a wide range of risk preferences. Based on data for 134 apple producers operating in the two main production areas in Germany, we compare and determine efficient production options for the most common regional varieties. Furthermore, appropriate RMIs are identified using stochastic dominance criteria. In this context we investigate internal RMI (frost irrigation and hail nets) as well as external risk protection tools (insurance options). In Germany only a single insurance concept against hail is available, whereas insurance against late frosts is not at the apple growers’ disposal. As frost insurance exists in neighboring countries, we analyze the effect of the latter based on a hypothetic hail-frost insurance policy. Simulated net present values of a one hectare level serve as decision criterion, for which the associated cumulative probability distributions are evaluated according to first and second degree stochastic dominance criteria. In addition, we use SERF (Stochastic Efficiency with Respect to a Function) as it evaluates farming options for defined ranges of relative risk aversion and thus has a higher discriminative power. The results indicate that Red Prince is the most efficient option in the north and subsidized hail insurance with frost irrigation is superior to frost irrigation as single RMI. In the south Braeburn should be chosen under rational aspects, but the tested insurance solutions are not as efficient as the common production practice under hail nets.
    Keywords: crop insurance, risk perception, risk behavior, risk management, SERF, Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2015
  25. By: Julian Hopwood
    Abstract: Women are often understood to be highly marginalised in typical African customary land regimes. The research presented in this article found that in the Acholi region of northern Uganda this is not the case. The crisis of land conflict that followed the twenty-year lra insurgency and mass rural displacement has seemingly passed, notwithstanding a minimal contribution from the formal justice, law and order sector: local state actors as well as clan elders are mediating and adjudicating disputes on the basis of custom. However some social institutions, in particular traditional marriage, have been deeply affected by displacement and the consequent poverty. In this context, custom appears to be becoming more responsive to the needs of women, including those who are divorced or separated. While women’s customary land claims are often challenged, they appear to be generally respected and supported by communities and those with responsibilities for settling disputes.
    Keywords: customary land; land conflict; women; Uganda; Acholi
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2015
  26. By: Wree, Philipp; Sauer, Johannes
    Abstract: High Yield Genetically Modified Wheat (HOSUT) HOSUT lines are an innovation in wheat breeding based on biotechnology with an incremental yield potential of ca. 28% compared to conventional wheat varieties. We apply the real option concept of Maximum Incremental Social Tolerable Irreversible Costs (MISTICs) to do an ex-ante assessment of the socioeconomic potential of HOSUT lines for Germany. We analyze the cost and benefits to farmer and society within two scenarios. Our results of our scenario calculation indicate that not authorizing HOSUT lines is correct if German society values the possible total irreversible costs of this technology to be between €12.04 and €10.02 per citizen or more.
    Keywords: Real option, wheat, yield increasing, uncertainty, irreversibility, social costs, GMO, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2015
  27. By: Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Djanibekov, Nodir; Voigt, Peter
    Abstract: Following the 1991 independence, Uzbekistan launched a program of national grain self-sufficiency supplemented by state subsidies and production targets. This policy measure also turned Uzbekistan from a wheat importer into an exporting country. Grounded on a throughout analysis of the post-1991 data and literature, we reconstruct the development trends in wheat sector of Uzbekistan and analyze whether it can emerge as a new player in food security in the Eurasian wheat belt region. The analysis and the discussions in the study suggest that the country has a potential to become an important supplier of wheat to neighboring countries. Although high-quality rainfed wheat is available from Kazakhstan, the central location and good road connections to the neighboring countries as well as less volatile wheat production under irrigation can provide some comparative advantages to Uzbek wheat producers. However, it is difficult to foreseen the further increase in wheat exports without the state procurement mechanism and interventions in the supply chains. Further improvement of the current procurement mechanism with introduction of market-based intensives to wheat producers is required to increase the production quality and efficiencies and the sustainability of wheat supply chain.
    Keywords: Wheat production, Central Asia, Caucasus, wheat quality, climate change., Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,
    Date: 2015
  28. By: Philippe Koutchade; Alain Carpentier; Fabienne Féménia
    Abstract: Evidences of the effects of unobserved heterogeneity in micro-econometric models are now pervasive in many applied economics fields. This article investigates this issue for agricultural production choice models. Farms’ and farmers’ unobserved heterogeneity can be accounted for in micro-econometric agricultural production choice models by relying on available modeling and inference tools. The random parameter (RP) framework allows achieving this goal in a fairly flexible way. This modeling framework has already been successfully used in numerous empirical studies covering many topics. It simply considers RP versions of standard models. Extensions of the Expectation-Maximization algorithms have been specifically developed in the computational statistics literature for estimating RP models. They appear to be well suited for large statistical models such as micro-econometric agricultural production choice models. The estimation of a RP multi-crop econometric model shows that unobserved heterogeneity matters in a sample of French farmers specialized in cash grain production covering a relatively small geographical area. The key parameters of this RP model significantly vary across farms. Simulation results obtained from the estimated RP model confirm that the sampled farmers’ choices respond heterogeneously to homogenous economic incentives. Ignoring this heterogeneity impacts both the distribution and the magnitude of the simulated effects.
    Keywords: Unobserved heterogeneity, random parameter models, agricultural production choices, policy simulation, SEM algorithms
    JEL: Q12 C13 C15
    Date: 2015
  29. By: Vorlaufer, Miriam; Ibanez, Marcela; Juanda, Bambang; Wollni, Meike
    Abstract: This paper investigates the trade-off between conservation and equity considerations in the use of payments for environmental services (PES) that implicitly incorporate different distributive justice principles. Using a public good experiment with heterogeneous participants, we compare the effects on additional area conserved and distribution of earnings of two PES schemes: an equal payment and a payment based on Rawls distributional principle, which we refer to as maxi-min payment scheme. The main findings of the framed field experiment conducted in Jambi province (Indonesia) indicate that the introduction of a maxi-min PES scheme can function as a multi-purpose instrument. It realigns the income distribution in favor of low-endowed participants and does not necessarily need to be compromised by lower environmental additionality at the group level.
    Keywords: Payments for Environmental Services,efficiency equity trade-off,public good experiment,endowment heterogeneity,productivity heterogeneity
    Date: 2015
  30. By: Romero, Cristina; Wollni, Meike
    Abstract: In this paper we study the dynamics of smallholder participation in export value chains focusing on the example of small-scale broccoli producers in the highlands of Ecuador. We analyze the extent of participation over an 11-year time period using correlated random effects and diff-GMM models and explain the hazards of dropping out of the export chain based on a multi-spell cox duration model. The empirical results suggest that small-scale farmers' exit from the export sector is accelerated by hold-ups experienced in the past and that family ties play an important role in farmers' marketing decisions. Negative external shocks – such as the global financial crisis starting in 2007 that was associated with the bankruptcy of the main buyer in our case study – represent a major threat towards the sustainability of smallholder inclusion in high-value chains
    Keywords: high-value supply chains, market participation, panel data, duration model, transaction costs, Agribusiness, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, D23, D81, Q12,
    Date: 2015–09
  31. By: Derek Anderson; Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko; Paulo Drummond; Pedro Espaillat; Dirk Muir
    Abstract: What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China’s growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and the buildup of infrastructure in the region. The impact of spillovers from China has been an open question because of the challenge to use an internally consistent framework with solid economic foundations that accounts for both the direct impact China may have on individual countries in SSA through a variety of channels (trade, investment, financial) as well as the impact on the region through the global economy (economic activity and commodity prices). This paper explores those channels of transmission and provides illustrative order of magnitude for the short- and medium-term economic impact by using AFRMOD, a module of the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), a multicountry general equilibrium model developed at the IMF. Three alternative scenarios are considered: first, lower potential output in China that is originally misperceived as a temporary cyclical slowdown; second, structural reforms in China that aim to increase potential output; and third, a relocation of low-end manufacturing to sub-Saharan Africa.
    Keywords: Spillovers;China;Sub-Saharan Africa;Potential output;Fiscal reforms;Spillovers; monetary policy; general equilibrium models; macroeconomic interdepedence; China; Africa
    Date: 2015–10–06
  32. By: Allendorf, Joseph
    Abstract: This study assesses the total factor productivity (TFP) growth for a sample of North-Rhine Westphalian dairy farms over the periods 2007-2014 and provides first-hand evidence of productivity growth of these farms before the milk market is liberalised. As first step a non-parametric Malmquist approach is therefore used to identify the productivity indices. The second step includes a panel regression to shed light on determinants of TFP growth. Expected results will show how TFP growth is influenced by their core components and which exogenous drivers affect the productivity growth.
    Keywords: Total factor productivity, Malmquist-Index, dairy farms, DEA, Farm Management, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2015
  33. By: Andre Boik (Department of Economics, University of California (Davis), One Shields Avenue, Davis CA, 95616)
    Abstract: Universal service is a policy objective that all individuals or households have access to some service. Subsidy policies to accomplish universal service may arise when private provision is non-universal. In the context of rural high speed wired broadband subsidies, this paper exploits household-level cable and satellite broadband subscription data from North Carolina to examine household adoption and substitution patterns and to evaluate how many currently unserved regions warrant an entry subsidy. This paper has three main findings: (i) fewer than 47% of households adopt high speed broadband in areas currently served by a single broadband provider, (ii) there exists a significant elasticity of substitution between high speed wired broadband and the lower speed options of satellite broadband and DSL, and (iii) a generous upper bound on the number of regions that warrant an entry subsidy is 67%. These results suggest a policy of universal service in North Carolina would be unlikely to achieve universal adoption, would connect many households already with internet access and who would not substitute, and in many regions would be prohibitively costly even assuming very generous estimates of the consumer surplus generated. From the perspective of social welfare, to connect the 5% least dense areas of North Carolina would require each adopting household value broadband access at more than $1550 per month.
    Keywords: Universal service; entry subsidies; broadband; telecommunications
    JEL: L96 L97 L51 H71
    Date: 2015–09
  34. By: Villanueva Cortés, Paloma
    Abstract: The Green Economy has increased its popularity among international organizations and OECD countries, as the solution to the current economic and ecological crisis. This strategy consists of a transition to a low-carbon economy and the achievement of resource efficiency, whose assumptions are grounded in environmental economics. Despite its international recognition, Green Economy indicators reveal an uneven distribution of the benefits of its implementation reflected by the externalization of the environmental damage. What is more, empirical studies enlighten its physical boundaries in terms of environmental damage through the extraction of the required raw materials and their future scarcity problems. This evidence is in line with the theory of unequal ecological exchange, which posits that environmental cost is displaced from core countries to the periphery countries. Additionally, the Green Economy can be framed within the concept of environmental fix, in that it lies on the marketization of the environmental problem to solve it.
    Date: 2015
  35. By: Prehn, Sören; Glauben, Thomas; Loy, Jens-Peter
    Abstract: Whenever supply falls short or actual consumption rates exceed projected consumption rates grain markets call for demand rationing. In recent years, in particular high demand made demand rationing more than once necessary. Here, we develop a theory of how demand rationing functions. Theory implies that agricultural futures markets not only fulfill a hedging and information function but also a market coordination function. Speculators always have a rational economic incentive to bring demand down to fit with supply conditions. Empirical evidence for the US corn market emphasizes the importance of demand rationing for the functioning of grain markets.
    Keywords: Corn market, price discovery, basis trading, spread trading, demand rationing, Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2015
  36. By: Tifaoui, Said; Von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan
    Abstract: We show how the measurement scale affects the results of the vertical price transmission analysis. We aim to answer the following question: how changes in wholesale prices (i.e. changes in the margin) affect the changes in the retail price of butter in Germany? We find that the average margin of the chains which change more frequently their prices is twofold the standard deviation of average margin in the German butter market, whereas, the chains characterized by less frequency in their price changes have an average margin which is a fold the standard deviation below this average margin.
    Keywords: Generalized Linear Mixed models, Vertical Price Transmission, Scanner data, German butter market, Demand and Price Analysis,
    Date: 2015
  37. By: Hachula, Michael; Hoffmann, Sebastian
    Abstract: Empirical evidence indicates that high oil price volatility has a dampening effect on output in countries that import commodities. Many countries, however, gain important revenues from commodity exports. This paper investigates the output effects of commodity price volatility in commodity exporting countries accounting for both oil and non-oil commodities. To that aim, we construct country specific commodity price indices for a sample of oil and non-oil commodity exporters. We find a significant negative impact of price volatility on real output for oil exporters. Our results for exporters of other commodities, however, suggest that the volatility effect is a peculiar feature of oil and not generalizable to a broad basket of commodities.
    Keywords: commodity price uncertainty,commodity exporters,VAR-MGARCH-in-mean
    JEL: C32 O13 Q43
    Date: 2015

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.