nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2015‒09‒11
thirty-two papers chosen by

  1. Popularising Direct Seeded Rice: Issues and Extension Strategies By Singh, K.M.; Shahi, Brajesh
  2. From value chain analysis to global value chain analysis: fresh orange export sector in mediterranean partner countries By Sausman, Christopher; Garcia, Marian; Fearne, Andrew; Felgate, Melanie; Ait el mekki, Akka; Cagatay, Selim; Soliman, Ibrahim; Thabet, Boubaker; Thabet, Chokri; Ben saïd, Mohamed; Laajimi, Abderraouf; Al ashkar, Haitham; El hadad-gauthier, Fatima; Mili, Samir; Martínez, Carolina
  3. Toilets Can Work: Short and Medium Run Health Impacts of Addressing Complementarities and Externalities in Water and Sanitation By Esther Duflo; Michael Greenstone; Raymond Guiteras; Thomas Clasen
  4. Diagnosis and Challenges of Sustainable Agricultural Development in Egypt By Soliman, Ibrahim
  5. Climate Variability in Semi-arid Brazil: Food Insecurity, Agricultural Production and Adjustment to Perceived Changes By Patricia S. Mesquita; Marcel Bursztyn; Hannah Wittman
  6. Agricultura y desarrollo económico en España, 1870-2000 By Ernesto Clar; Miguel Martín-Retortillo; Vicente Pinilla
  7. Impacts of Climate Variability on Food Acquisition Programmes: Lessons from the Brazilian Semi-arid Region By Patricia S. Mesquita; Marcel Bursztyn
  8. Identification of Counterfactuals and Payoffs in Dynamic Discrete Choice with an Application to Land Use By Myrto Kalouptsidi; Paul T. Scott; Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues
  9. The Impact of Social Cash Transfer Programmes on Community Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa By Pamela Pozarny; Benjamin Davis
  10. Indonesia’s Single Registry for Social Protection Programmes By Adama Bah; Suahasil Nazara; Elan Satriawan
  11. Scaling-up Local Development Initiatives: Brazil’s Food Procurement Programme By Ryan Nehring; Ben McKay
  12. Fertility and Life Satisfaction in Rural Ethiopia. By Conzo, Pierluigi; Fuochi, Giulia; Mencarini,Letizia
  13. Commodity Prices and Volatility in Response to Anticipated Climate Change By A. Nam Tran; David Lobell; Michael J. Roberts; Wolfram Schlenker; Jarrod R. Welch
  14. Are African Households Heterogeneous Agents?: Stylized Facts on Patterns of Consumption, Employment, Income and Earnings for Macroeconomic Modelers By Louise Fox
  15. Rural Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene in Bangladesh: An Investigation of Lohagara Upazila By Tawhidul Islam; Ohidul Alam; Khaled Misbahuzzaman
  16. Sub-Saharan Employment Developments: The Important Role of Household Enterprises with an Application to Rwanda By Alun H. Thomas
  17. Yemen National Social Protection Monitoring Survey (NSPMS): 2012-2013 – Executive Summary By IPC-IG; Unicef Yemen
  18. Are Public Works Programmes Effective in Reinforcing Social Protection Systems? By Ojijo Odhiambo; Johannes Ashipala; Fabian Mubiana
  19. From economic general equilibrium to ecological system services for nature conservation and management: a methodological analysis and an empirical study based on 30 Italian industries By F. Zagonari
  20. International Relative Prices: Evidence from Online Retailers in Seven Countries By Brent Neiman; Alberto Cavallo
  21. Atlantic versus Pacific Agreement in Agri-food Sectors: Does the Winner Take it All? By Anne-Célia Disdier; Charlotte Emlinger; Jean Fouré
  22. Mitigating carbon leakage: Combining output-based rebating with a consumption tax By Christoph Böhringer; Knut Einar Rosendahl; Halvor Briseid Storrøsten
  23. Plant Breeders’ Rights, Patents and Incentives to Innovate By Hervouet, Adrien; Langinier, Corinne
  24. How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies? By David Coady; Ian W.H. Parry; Louis Sears; Baoping Shang
  25. Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation: Some Cross-Country Evidence By Davide Furceri; Prakash Loungani; John Simon; Susan Wachter
  26. Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries: Balancing Financial Stability and Development By Daniela Marchettini; Rodolfo Maino
  27. Carbon Emissions and Social Capital in Sweden By George Marbuah; Ing-Marie Gren
  28. Consumer acceptance and willingness to pay for edible insects as food in Kenya: the case of white winged termites By Mohammed H. Alemu; Søren B. Olsen; Suzanne E. Vedel; Kennedy O. Pambo; Victor O. Owino
  29. Predicting default more accurately: to proxy or not to proxy for default? By Neta Sher; Koresh Galil
  30. An Insurance-Led Response to Climate Change By Anthony J. Webster; Richard H. Clarke
  31. The Roller-Coaster Ride of Chinese Commodity Markets Abstract: The Chinese stock markets have been recently affected by plummeting indexes and high volatility. The substantial level of “mom and pop” speculators has been identified as one of the reason for these dynamics. Although there is no speculative bubble at the moment, we may question the impact of potential excessive trading on the promising future of Chinese commodity exchanges. By Yves Jégourel
  32. Productive Spillovers of Social Cash Transfers in Africa:A Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) Approach By J. Edward Taylor; Karen Thome; Mateusz Filipski; Benjamin Davis

  1. By: Singh, K.M.; Shahi, Brajesh
    Abstract: Direct Seeded Rice (DSR) is the technology which is water, labour and energy efficient along with eco-friendly characteristics. Flooded rice is a major source of methane emission, while the use of nitrogen fertilizers produces nitrous oxide; both are greenhouse gases linked to global warming. The dominant method of rice establishment is transplanting in the rice-wheat growing areas of the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). However, rising labour costs for establishing a nursery, puddling fields, and transplanting have increased costs for transplanting in the region. Direct seeding of rice was a common practice before green revolution in India and is becoming popular once again because of its potential to save water and labour. However, high weed infestation is the major bottleneck in DSR, especially in dry field conditions and, availability of several nutrients including N, P, S and micronutrients such as Zn and Fe, is likely to be a constraint. Extension activities can play very important role in popularisation of DSR, which includes training, demonstration of DSR in farmer’s field, on farm trial related to various potential problems faced by farmers and exposure visit of farmers to field. Coordination is also required within the different disciplines/specializations, between institutions and departments as well as functional areas like research, extension and training along with people’s participation and new thrust on participatory research and development to bring farmers in the framework of interactions at all levels. With the increase in prices of inputs and low rice prices, rice production does not provide farmers with high income. Rice food security needs clear national policy that allows right investment in all phases of rice development. There must be right policies on input availability, output marketing and prices. The following paper tries to look into the issues affecting DSR adoption and suggests extension strategies to popularise it.
    Keywords: Direct seeded rice, Extension strategies, Climate change
    JEL: Q16 Q20 Q56
    Date: 2015–09–02
  2. By: Sausman, Christopher; Garcia, Marian; Fearne, Andrew; Felgate, Melanie; Ait el mekki, Akka; Cagatay, Selim; Soliman, Ibrahim; Thabet, Boubaker; Thabet, Chokri; Ben saïd, Mohamed; Laajimi, Abderraouf; Al ashkar, Haitham; El hadad-gauthier, Fatima; Mili, Samir; Martínez, Carolina
    Abstract: Preceding chapters outlined some of the challenges facing Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPCs), from stubborn rural poverty to a crisis in its rapidly changing demographics. The region is facing a predicament over agricultural policy and competitiveness in its agri-food sector. MPCs and the wider region of the Middle East and North African (MENA) are failing to meet the challenge of averting heavy rural-urban migration and the current policy strategy has not brought the economic growth to the region that it desperately needs (Baldacci et al. 2008). Poor economic opportunities are pushing rural households into the city where instead of finding new prospects, poverty is merely concentrated in urban slums and unemployment continues to be a looming threat for the region (Nabli 2004). The population in MPCs that depend on agriculture coupled with a job crisis that must be con- fronted over the next decade suggests that the agri-food sector is, at least in the short term, the only realistic sector to bring economic improvements to rural areas in MENA. Yet growth in value-added agriculture in MENA is on par with sub- Saharan Africa and is significantly less than all other developing regions (Binswanger-Mkhize and McCalla 2010). Agricultural policies in the region con- tinue to link competitiveness, with volume being the overarching aim (Lindberg et al. 2006). All of this suggests that the region presents fertile ground to test a new value-orientated tool that goes beyond ‘conventional industry studies’ (Kaplinsky and Morris 2002). The present chapter contrasts with other chapters in this book. Rather than an analysis from the subject area of economics, a method that is more aligned with the business management discipline is presented. Using a methodology adapted from the work of Taylor (2005) and taken from the Supply Chain Management (SCM) literature, this chapter applies a Global Value Chain Analysis (GVCA) which identifies where value is created in the eyes of the end consumer and highlights bottlenecks based on the flow of materials, the flow of information and the strength of relationships between actors, from spot market and opportunistic to integrated and trusting relations. The contribution is primarily methodological in that it is an attempt to link process tracing and con- sumer-orientated demand pull concepts in the SCM literature (Collins 2009; Fearne 2009) with creating policy recommendations within the context of export competitiveness. The chapter begins with a literature review of value chain thinking concepts and a review of past methodological approaches in the SCM literature to value chain analysis, leading to our justification for contributing to the literature with a sectoral level of analysis and combining it with qualitative key informant information to create policy recommendations. Then an overview of the fresh orange sector in the region is described and justification for using MPCs as a context is offered. Based on the methodology we adapt from Taylor (2005) which provides a multi-faceted view of the global value chain, a set of insights are gathered about the nature of value creation and where constraints exist. Resulting policy recommendations provide examples of how a value-chain-centric approach could be used to highlight innovative policy solutions to MPCs’ agri-food export sector, for instance, dis- seminating consumer information to relevant stakeholders and incentivising investment in supply chain activities that add value for European consumers. A broad aim of our chapter is to generate a discussion over how value chain thinking can be used as a tool to inform policy debate.
    Keywords: Egypt, Development Economics, Value Chain Analysis, Global Value Chain Analysis, Orange Export, Orange Export Sector in Mediterranean
    JEL: Q13 Q17 Q56
    Date: 2015–06–20
  3. By: Esther Duflo; Michael Greenstone; Raymond Guiteras; Thomas Clasen
    Abstract: Poor water quality and sanitation are leading causes of mortality and disease in developing countries. However, interventions providing toilets in rural areas have not substantially improved health, likely because of incomplete coverage and low usage. This paper estimates the impact of an integrated water and sanitation improvement program in rural India that provided household-level water connections, latrines, and bathing facilities to all households in approximately 100 villages. The estimates suggest that the intervention was effective, reducing treated diarrhea episodes by 30-50%. These results are evident in the short term and persist for 5 years or more. The annual cost is approximately US$60 per household.
    JEL: I15 O13 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2015–09
  4. By: Soliman, Ibrahim
    Abstract: Sustainable agricultural development seeks not only to preserve and maintain natural resources, but also to develop them, as future generations would have much more demand quantity-wise and quality-wise for agricultural and food products. Such goals should ensure a balance with the development of livelihoods enjoyed by the individuals concerned. Livelihood should not be restricted to an indicator of sufficient income levels but should also include public health concerns and education standards. The objective of this study was therefore to diagnose the challenges facing sustainable agricultural development in Egypt. The analysis examined six dimensions: trade trends with an emphasis on agricultural trade; rural poverty indicators and causes; degradation of agricultural resources (soil and irrigation water); agricultural labor employment in relation to migration and the technological packages adopted; public health criteria; and education indicators. The final section was allocated for a profile of the strategy towards rural development. The deficit in the trade balance showed an increase due to the deterioration of Egyptian exports in the world market, in particular the EU, due to the impacts of non-tariff barriers. Inequalities and rural poverty showed the extent of the unequal distribution of agricultural resources. They also demonstrated whether or not income generated from agriculture was capable of alleviating poverty in small-scale farming households and whether or not poverty in rural Egypt runs deeper than in urban areas. The appraisal of the degradation in natural resources focused on agricultural land and irrigation water. Whereas the agricultural land resources analysis concerned social and economic attitudes as well as the deterioration in soil fertility and quality, the analysis dealt with the types of quantitative and qualitative waste in irrigation water resources. Worrying demographic issues were examined via migration trends and unemployment indicators as well as through the labor force and employment by sector. Public health indicators showed that the imbalance between access to piped water and the sanitation network in rural regions was the worst of all Egyptian regions. While piped water reached 97 % of rural households, only one-third of them have access to the sanitation network and only 13 % of rural households in Upper Egypt had access to sanitation in 2008. The public health indicators recorded 30 beds and 13 doctors for every 10,000 citizens in major cities, there were fewer than 20 beds and 2 doctors per 10,000 citizens in rural towns. Surprisingly, there is a higher ratio of nurses to doctors in rural regions than in urban regions in Egypt. This implies a lack of doctors in rural regions and the preference of rural women to work as nurses in the vicinity of their home villages for social reasons, in particular the fact that other employment opportunities in rural areas for women are rare. Literacy rate estimates would appear to show that the lowest literacy rate is in rural Upper Egypt at about 57 % and that the highest rate is in urban Lower Egypt at around 79 %. The literacy gap between rural and urban areas in Egypt nevertheless fell from 45 % in 1995 to less than 21 % in 2010. The study was concluded with the definition of a profile for a strategy aimed at rural development in Egypt including a proposed program to alleviate poverty.
    Keywords: Egypt, Development Economics, Supply Chain Management, sustainable agricultural development
    JEL: O13 Q14 Q18
    Date: 2015–06–20
  5. By: Patricia S. Mesquita (IPC-IG); Marcel Bursztyn (IPC-IG); Hannah Wittman (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: Climate change and variability are among the main threats to socio-ecological sustainability in many semi-arid regions. High levels of social vulnerability in the northeast of Brazil make this region one of the most susceptible to the impacts of climate change in the country. Within the region, the state of Ceará is one of the most vulnerable to the foreseen climatic impacts (PBMC, 2013). The year 2012 was marked by a long and severe drought that affected millions of people, primarily due to the significant decrease in agricultural production yields and the death of cattle.
    Keywords: Climate Variability, Semi-arid Brazil, Food Insecurity, Agricultural Production, Adjustment, Perceived Changes
    Date: 2014–09
  6. By: Ernesto Clar; Miguel Martín-Retortillo; Vicente Pinilla
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to offer a general reflection on the role played by agriculture in the economic development of Spain during the period 1870-2000. It first begins placing emphasis on the unfavourable starting point suffered by the Spanish agricultural sector in the 19th century. The paper then analyses the models of agricultural development that were followed, as well as the productive and institutional conditioning factors of that development. The paper concludes that although Spanish agriculture followed a growth path that was coherent with the endowment and prices of its productive factors, and obtained reasonable results thereby, it was not, in itself, dynamic enough to give momentum to the process of industrialization, but not was it so static as to be the causal factor in the slow pace of industrial development in Spain.
    Keywords: Economic Development, Agricultural History, Spanish Economic History, Agriculture and Economic Development
    JEL: N53 N54 O13 Q10
    Date: 2015–09
  7. By: Patricia S. Mesquita (IPC-IG); Marcel Bursztyn (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: Besides tackling socio-economic vulnerabilities, social protection interventions can be an important tool in the field of climate change adaptation (Davies et al., 2008). Social protection programmes foster adaptive capacities through improvements in socio-economic variables (e.g. education, health etc.) but, on the other hand, can also be disrupted by climate change and variability. Nonetheless, not much attention has been paid to the impacts of climate or other environmental issues on the implementation and functioning of these strategies. Specifically for regions that are characterised by significant climatic variability (e.g. semi-arid regions), current shocks can serve as lessons for better planning and implementation of social protection programmes in the face of climate change.(…)
    Keywords: Impacts, Climate Variability, Food Acquisition Programmes, Brazilian Semi-arid Region
    Date: 2015–03
  8. By: Myrto Kalouptsidi; Paul T. Scott; Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues
    Abstract: Dynamic discrete choice models are non-parametrically not identified without restrictions on payoff functions, yet counterfactuals may be identified even when payoffs are not. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the identification of a wide range of counterfactuals for models with nonparametric payoffs, as well as for commonly used parametric functions, and we obtain both positive and negative results. We show that access to extra data of asset resale prices (when applicable) can solve non-identifiability of both payoffs and counterfactuals. The theoretical findings are illustrated empirically in the context of agricultural land use. First, we provide identification results for models with unobserved market-level state variables. Then, using a unique spatial dataset of land use choices and land resale prices, we estimate the model and investigate two policy counterfactuals: long run land use elasticity (identified) and a fertilizer tax (not identified, affected dramatically by restrictions).
    Keywords: Identification, Dynamic Discrete Choice, Counterfactual, Land Use
    JEL: C Q1
    Date: 2015–08–31
  9. By: Pamela Pozarny (IPC-IG); Benjamin Davis (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: Social cash transfers are on the rise in sub-Saharan Africa. The African Unions 2008 Social Policy Framework Plan of Action prompted a number of member countries to prioritise social protection strategies, including cash transfers. Such strategies—often partly supported by development partners—address hunger and food insecurity, school enrolment and attendance, the well-being of children, and poverty reduction.(…)
    Keywords: Impact, Social Cash Transfer Programmes, Community Dynamics, Sub-Saharan Africa, PtoP, Protection to Production
    Date: 2015–05
  10. By: Adama Bah (IPC-IG); Suahasil Nazara (IPC-IG); Elan Satriawan (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: Indonesia began to implement targeted social assistance programmes for both households and individuals in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The crisis had halted Indonesias economic growth and caused a sharp rise in domestic prices—particularly for food items, which led to a rapid and significant increase in poverty. The massive economic and social impacts of the crisis required a rapid roll-out of large-scale social assistance programmes, collectively termed the Social Safety Net (JPS), to protect households and communities that were most affected and to prevent the further spread of poverty. Such programmes relied on locally validated data from the National Family Planning Coordination Board and were largely pro-poor, although several targeting issues emerged. (…)
    Keywords: Indonesia, Single Registry, Social Protection Programmes
    Date: 2015–07
  11. By: Ryan Nehring (IPC-IG); Ben McKay (IPC-IG)
    Keywords: Scaling-up, Local Development Initiatives, Brazil’s Food Procurement Programme
    Date: 2015–03
  12. By: Conzo, Pierluigi; Fuochi, Giulia; Mencarini,Letizia (University of Turin)
    Abstract: There is a growing number of studies focusing on the role of fertility in subjective well-being in developed countries while developing countries have been rarely taken into account. We investigate the empirical relationship between fertility and life satisfaction in rural Ethiopia, the largest landlocked country in Africa providing the unique opportunity of panel data availability. Our results suggest that older men benefit the most in terms of life satisfaction from the investment in children, the latter being instead detrimental for women’s subjective well being in reproductive age. In particular, consistently with the related socio-economic theories, we find that the number of children ever born plays a positive role for men’s life satisfaction in older age. Conversely, a new birth produces the opposite effect especially for young women. We argue that this mismatch has two complementary explanations: on the one hand, rather than a source of (labour) support young children represent a burden which traditionally falls on women’s shoulders in the short run; on the other hand, in poor rural areas children can be thought as a valuable long-term investment in a lifecycle perspective. Endogeneity issues are addressed by controlling for lagged life satisfaction in OLS regressions, through fixed effects and the IV approach.
    Date: 2015–06
  13. By: A. Nam Tran (University of Missouri); David Lobell (Stanford University); Michael J. Roberts (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia University, National Bureau of Economic Research); Jarrod R. Welch (Charles River Associates)
    Abstract: Some predict that climate change will decrease average crop yield and increase yield variability. While the first effect, as well as possible adaption strategies, have been studied extensively, the second is less well understood and the topic of this paper. A unique feature of commodity crops is that they can be stored between periods, thereby allowing storage to smooth production shocks across time. We pair a rational competitive storage model with a statistical analysis linking global production of the four major commodity crops (maize, wheat, rice and soybeans) and climate forecasts from 16 global climate models. The rational storage model predicts a doubling of average storage levels by 2050, slightly raising average prices to cover higher storage losses, but at the same significantly reducing price variability compared to a storage rule that is optimal under past yield distributions. Storage market responses to future yield variability greatly mitigate potential welfare losses of greater production volatility.
    Date: 2015–07
  14. By: Louise Fox
    Abstract: This paper reviews the evidence on how households in Sub-Saharan Africa segment along consumption, income and earning dimensions relevant for quantitative macroeconomic policy models which incorporate heterogeneity. Key findings include the importance of home-grown food in the income and consumption of house-holds well up the income distribution, the lack of formal financial inclusion for all but the richest households, and the importance of non-wage income. These stylized facts suggest that an externally-generated macroeconomic shock and the short-term policy response would mainly affect the behavior and welfare of these richer urban households, who are also more likely to have the means to cope. Middle class and poor households, especially in rural areas, should be insulated from these external shocks but vulnerable to a wide range of structural factors in the economy as well as idiosyncratic shocks.
    Keywords: Econometric models;Djibouti;Congo, Democratic Republic of the;Congo, Republic of;Comoros;Central African Republic;Chad;Algeria;Angola;Burkina Faso;Burundi;Benin;Botswana;Business cycles;Cameroon;Employment;Ethiopia;Eritrea;Equatorial Guinea;Egypt;Rwanda;Seychelles;Senegal;Sierra Leone;Somalia;South Africa;South Sudan;Ghana;Gambia, The;Gabon;Guinea-Bissau;Guinea;Income distribution;Income inequality;Household consumption;Mali;Mauritania;Mauritius;Nigeria;Niger;Morocco;Mozambique;Namibia;Kenya;Lesotho;Liberia;Libyan Arab Jamahiriya;Madagascar;Malawi;Sub-Saharan Africa;Sudan;Swaziland;Tanzania;Togo;Uganda;Tunisia;Zimbabwe;Zambia;Inequality, macroeconomics, household heterogeneity, Macro Models, Macroeconomic Stabalization, Labor Economics, Informal Labor Market, Mobility, income, poor, poor households, savings, Personal Income and Wealth Distribution, General, Labor Economics: General, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development,
    Date: 2015–05–06
  15. By: Tawhidul Islam (University of Chittagong); Ohidul Alam (University of Chittagong and Tongji University); Khaled Misbahuzzaman (University of Chittagong)
    Abstract: In Lohagara Upazila and other rural areas of Chittagong, a few NGOs have been working to resolve water, sanitation and health (WaSH) problems. But it is still an issue of unresolved dearth of education and sufficient lucre. This paper is based on a survey of 72 rural families that were selected randomly in two unions of Lohagara Upazila to explore the current status and adopted measures. It appears that about one quarter of rural people are deprived of safe drinking water. Among other sources, they utilize pond water, which typically is polluted by micro-organisms and other impurities. Access to sanitary latrines is also low. Only 12.5 percent of the 24 lower class families use sanitary latrines (SLs), mostly because they cannot afford to utilize SLs. Even among the 24 middle class families, half do not use proper latrines. Both government and NGOs should come forward to support these rural people and reduce their problems, which have negative implications on the whole country.
    Keywords: water, sanitation, health, WaSH, rural population, Bangladesh, development
    Date: 2015–09
  16. By: Alun H. Thomas
    Abstract: This paper documents the structural transformation in employment that has taken place in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the past 15 years. In contrast to Asian economies, where at least half of the labor flows out of agriculture have gone into industry, in SSA, most of the workers have ended up in the service sector, especially household enterprises. Rwanda has been one of the stellar performers in SSA in terms of structural transformation with the strongest movement of workers out of agriculture. Contrary to conventional wisdom, except for the very top of the distribution of consumption in Rwanda, families in household enterprises now consume as much as non-agricultural wage earners.
    Keywords: Employment;Family economic aspects;Rwanda;Rwanda;Services sector;Business enterprises;Sub-Saharan Africa;structural transformation, household enterprises, salaried employment, workers, labor, labor force, labor market, General, General,
    Date: 2015–08–03
  17. By: IPC-IG (IPC-IG); Unicef Yemen (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: "The Yemen National Social Protection Monitoring Survey (NSPMS) is a household longitudinal survey with a nationally representative balanced sample of 6,397 households (of an initial sample of 7,152). Each household in the balanced sample was visited on a quarterly basis over a 12-month period between October 2012 and September 2013. The survey had two key objectives: (1) to provide up-to-date data on how the poor and vulnerable have coped since the 2011 crisis; and (2) to produce evidence on the targeting of the Social Welfare Fund (SWF) cash transfer programme and to assess its impact on some developmental indicators. The NSPMS provides data on the SWF, living conditions, water, sanitation, education, child nutrition, child and maternal health, child protection, work and income, livelihoods and food security. This Executive Summary encompasses a description of the sampling design, key indicators of the survey and findings of the SWF impact assessment."(...)
    Keywords: Yemen, Social Protection, Monitoring Survey, Executive Summary
    Date: 2014–12
  18. By: Ojijo Odhiambo (IPC-IG); Johannes Ashipala (IPC-IG); Fabian Mubiana (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the effectiveness of public works programmes (PWPs) in creating employment, reducing poverty and reinforcing the existing social protection system in Namibia. Using data and information from a survey conducted in northern Namibia, it is established that while public works programmes have no significant effect on the employment status of participants beyond the programme lifespan, they nonetheless have a significant positive effect on their socio-economic well-being. PWP wages, which are significantly lower than those prevailing in the market for unskilled labour, are comparable to most of the existing social cash transfers and have a positive impact on poverty reduction. It is established that PWP wages are used by individuals and households to invest in economic assets as well as in improving access to basic social services—education and health—all of which serve to reinforce the well-developed social protection system. There is, however, a need to constantly review the wage level to be as near the prevailing market rates as possible; to ensure that the PWPs have an inbuilt mechanism for the transfer of the necessary skills; and to design complementary policies and programmes that promote long-term investments in rural areas so that PWPs can be more effective in reinforcing the existing social protection system. (…)
    Keywords: Public Works Programmes, Social Protection Systems
    Date: 2015–02
  19. By: F. Zagonari
    Abstract: In this paper, I develop an operational methodology to consistently compare alternative sustainability paradigms (weak sustainability [WS], strong sustainability [SS], a-growth [AG], and de-growth [DG]) and different assessment approaches (life-cycle assessment [LCA], cost-benefit analysis [CBA], and multi-criteria analysis [MCA]) within alternative relationship frameworks (economic general equilibrium [EGE] and ecosystem services [ESS]). The goal is to suggest different environmental interventions (e.g., projects vs. policies) for nature management and guide decisions to achieve nature conservation, defined here as reducing environmental pressures to preserve the future environment and its functioning over time. I then apply the methodology to 30 interdependent industries in Italy for three pollutants (greenhouse-effect gases, polluted rain, and air pollution) and four resources (water, minerals, fossil fuels, biomass) during two periods (from 1990 to 2007 and from 1990 to 2012). The industries were prioritised in terms of interventions to be taken to diminish pollution damage and resource depletion (e.g., fishing and non-energy mining for any sustainability paradigm), whereas sustainability paradigms are compared in terms of their likelihood (i.e., WS > AG = DG > SS), robustness (i.e., AG > SS > DG > WS), effectiveness (i.e., SS > AG > DG > WS), and feasibility (i.e., SS > DG > WS > AG). Proper assessment approaches for projects are finally identified for situations when policies are infeasible (e.g., LCA in WS and SS, MCA in DG and SS within ESS, CBA in WS and AG within EGE), by suggesting MCA in WS within ESS once ecological services are linked to sustainability criteria.
    JEL: O2 Q2 Q3 Q5
    Date: 2015–08
  20. By: Brent Neiman (University of Chicago); Alberto Cavallo (MIT)
    Abstract: We construct a dataset containing daily prices for hundreds of goods that collectively represent the bulk of expenditures on fuel, food, and consumer electronics in seven countries since 2010. Relative to earlier work, including our own, we significantly increase the coverage of goods studied by measuring prices in common physical units such as grams, items, or liters. We can therefore reasonably compare across countries the prices of otherwise identical goods sold in slightly different package sizes. We use these data to ask how price levels and dynamics for the same good varies across countries, with a focus on uncovering the extent to which the exchange rate, measurement error, and price stickiness dictate the extent of law of one price variations. Finally, we consistently scrape the web pages of the 10 largest online retailers in each country and note the total number of available varieties within narrowly defined categories. This allows us to, for the first time, characterize the scale of cross-country differences in the availability of consistently defined consumer varieties.
    Date: 2015
  21. By: Anne-Célia Disdier (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)); Charlotte Emlinger (Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales); Jean Fouré (Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales)
    Abstract: Trade liberalization of the agri-food sector is a sensitive topic in both Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) discussions. This paper provides an overview of current trade ows and trade barriers. Then, using a general equilibrium model of international trade (the MIRAGE model), it assesses the potential impact of these two agreements on agri-food trade and value added. The results suggest that the US agri-food sectors would gain from both agreements while almost all their partners and third countries would benefit less, and might register losses in some sectors. However, the two agreements are not competing, since all the contracting parties' defensive and offensive interests are complementary. Finally, we show that the Atlantic trade may be impacted by the inclusion of harmonized standards within the Pacific agreement but not by its extension to additional members (e.g. China or India).
    Date: 2015–09
  22. By: Christoph Böhringer (Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre & ZenTra); Knut Einar Rosendahl (Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of Economics and Business); Halvor Briseid Storrøsten (Statistics Norway, Oslo / Norway)
    Abstract: Unilateral climate policy induces carbon leakage through the relocation of emission-intensive and trade-exposed industries to regions with no or more lenient emission regulation. Both analytical and numerical studies suggest that emission pricing combined with border carbon adjustments may be a second-best instrument, and more cost-effective than output-based rebating, in which case domestic output is indirectly subsidized. No countries have so far imposed border carbon adjustments, while variants of output-based rebating have been implemented. In this paper we demonstrate that it is welfare improving for a region who has already implemented emission pricing along with output-based rebating for emission-intensive and trade-exposed goods to also introduce a consumption tax on these goods. Moreover, we show that combining output-based rebating with a consumption tax can be equivalent with border carbon adjustments.
    Keywords: Carbon leakage, output-based rebating, border carbon adjustments, consumption tax
    JEL: D61 H2 Q54
    Date: 2015–09
  23. By: Hervouet, Adrien (Université de Nantes, Institut d’Économie et de Management); Langinier, Corinne (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Innovations on plant varieties can be protected by patents or Plant Breeders’ Rights (PBRs). Although these methods of protection have similarities, they also have major differences. With the PBR regime, farmers are allowed to save part of their harvest to replant during the next period (“farmers’ exemption”). To comply with international regulation, they must pay a tax to seed producers for the loss incurred due to this exemption. We analyze the impact of this exemption and its associated tax on seed prices and on the incentives to innovate in a monopoly setting. We find that with only a PBR regime, a relatively high tax level is necessary to eliminate self-production. If both patent and PBR regimes coexist, farmers might still self-produce if the seed innovation is protected with a PBR. Our findings suggest that the coexistence of the two regimes does not fully prevent self-production. Nevertheless, it boosts the research investment which is a non-monotonic function of the tax. The seed producer might over or under invest compared to what is socially optimal. Moreover, incentives to innovate are the strongest, either with a patent regime or with a PBR regime for which a high tax prevents seed saving. In terms of welfare, having both systems has ambiguous effects.
    Keywords: Intellectual Property Rights; Plant Breeders’ Rights; Seed Saving
    JEL: D23 K11 L12 Q12
    Date: 2015–08–01
  24. By: David Coady; Ian W.H. Parry; Louis Sears; Baoping Shang
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive, updated picture of energy subsidies at the global and regional levels. It focuses on the broad notion of post-tax energy subsidies, which arise when consumer prices are below supply costs plus a tax to reflect environmental damage and an additional tax applied to all consumption goods to raise government revenues. Post-tax energy subsidies are dramatically higher than previously estimated, and are projected to remain high. These subsidies primarily reflect under-pricing from a domestic (rather than global) perspective, so even unilateral price reform is in countries’ own interests. The potential fiscal, environmental and welfare impacts of energy subsidy reform are substantial.
    Keywords: Environment;energy subsidies, efficient taxation, deadweight loss, revenue, subsidies, tax, vehicle, traffic, subsidy, Demand and Supply, Government Policy,
    Date: 2015–05–18
  25. By: Davide Furceri; Prakash Loungani; John Simon; Susan Wachter
    Abstract: This paper provides a broad brush look at the impact of fluctuations in global food prices on domestic inflation in a large group of countries. For advanced economies, we find that these fluctuations have played a significant role over the period from 1960 to the present, but the impact has declined over time and become less persistent. We also find that the more recent global food price shocks occurred in the 2000s had a much bigger impact on emerging than on advanced economies. This larger impact could reflect the larger share of food in the consumption baskets in emerging economies on average than in advanced economies, and less anchored inflation expectations in emerging economies than in advanced economies.
    Keywords: Inflation;Food prices;pass-through, food, economies, food price, General, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics,
    Date: 2015–06–24
  26. By: Daniela Marchettini; Rodolfo Maino
    Abstract: We propose a toolkit for the assessment of systemic risk buildup in low income countries. We show that, due to non-linearity in the relationship between credit and financial stability, the assessment should be conducted with different tools at different stages of financial development. In particular, when the level of financial depth is low, traditional leading indicators of banking crises have poor predictive performance and the analysis should be based on indicators that account for financial deepening while taking into consideration countries’ structural limits. By using this framework, we provide a preliminary assessment of systemic risk buildup in individual SSA countries.
    Keywords: Development;Banking crisis;Financial stability;Financial sector;Credit booms;Financial crises;Systemic risk;Systemic risk assessment;Low income countries;Sub-Saharan Africa;Early Warning Indicators, Financial Deepening, credit, bis, risk, banking, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Financial Forecasting and Simulation,
    Date: 2015–08–12
  27. By: George Marbuah (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Ing-Marie Gren (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)
    Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of whether or not social capital explains per capita CO2 emissions dynamics in Swedish counties in an augmented environmental Kuznets curve framework. By accounting for issues of endogeneity in the presence of dynamic and spatial effects using geo-referenced emissions data, we show that per capita carbon emissions in a county matters for other counties and that net of economic, demographic and environmental factors, social capital has the potential to reduce carbon emissions in Sweden albeit less robustly. We test two different social capital constructs; trust in government and environmental engagement. Specifically, trust in the government inures to the reduction in CO2 emissions. Membership and engagement in environmental organisations reduces CO2 emissions only through its interaction with per capita income or trust. The implication of our estimates suggest that investment geared toward increasing the stock of social capital could inure to re ductions in CO2 emissions in addition to climate policy instruments in Sweden.
    Keywords: Environmental Kuznets curve, Social capital, CO2 emissions, Spatial panel analysis, Sweden
    JEL: C23 Q53 Q56 Z13
    Date: 2015–09
  28. By: Mohammed H. Alemu (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Søren B. Olsen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Suzanne E. Vedel (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Kennedy O. Pambo (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology); Victor O. Owino (International Atomic Energy Agency)
    Abstract: Edible insects are receiving substantial attention because of their potential as a significant future food source of high nutritional value and with important environmental benefits. As a result, there is a focus on the supply side to establish and optimize the insect production sector and develop the value chain. However, as the ultimate success of a product development depends on consumers' product judgement and acceptance, acquiring information about potential demand is of paramount importance for policy advice. In this paper, we aim to give a first insight into the potential demand for termite-based food products (TBFPs) in Kenya. We assess the demand in terms of consumer preferences and willingness to pay using a stated choice experiment method. A novel feature of this paper is that it focuses on how the termites should be presented and introduced, either as whole or processed, in a typical daily meal in order to increase consumer acceptance. Results from the latent class model reveal that consumers prefer and are willing to pay more for TBFPs with high nutritional value and when they are recommended by officials. In addition, results show that high to a very high food safety control levels of the TBFPs are valued positively by most consumers.
    Keywords: Stated Choice Experiment; Edible insects; Latent class model; Termite-based food products; WTP
    JEL: D12 Q11 Q13 Q18 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2015–09
  29. By: Neta Sher (BGU); Koresh Galil (BGU)
    Keywords: Default; Bankruptcy; Financial Distress; Delisting; Bankruptcy Prediction; Default Prediction.
    JEL: G17 G33
    Date: 2015
  30. By: Anthony J. Webster; Richard H. Clarke
    Abstract: Climate change is widely expected to increase weather related damage and the insurance claims that result from it. This has the undesirable consequence of increasing insurance costs, in a way that is independent of a customer's contribution to the causes of climate change. This is unfortunate because insurance provides a financial mechanism that mitigates some of the consequences of climate change, allowing damage from increasingly frequent events to be repaired. We observe that the insurance industry could reclaim any increase in claims due to climate change, by increasing the insurance premiums on energy producers for example, without needing government intervention or a new tax. We argue that this insurance-led levy must acknowledge both present carbon emissions and a modern industry's carbon inheritance, that is, to recognise that fossil-fuel driven industrial growth has provided the innovations and conditions needed for modern civilisation to exist and develop. The increases in premiums would initially be small, and will require an event attribution (EA) methodology to determine their size. We propose that the levies can be phased in as the science of event attribution becomes sufficiently robust for each claim type, to ultimately provide a global insurance-led response to climate change.
    Date: 2015–09
  31. By: Yves Jégourel
    Keywords: China, Commodity, Markets
    Date: 2015–07
  32. By: J. Edward Taylor (IPC-IG); Karen Thome (IPC-IG); Mateusz Filipski (IPC-IG); Benjamin Davis (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: Many countries around the globe, including in sub-Saharan Africa,have implemented social cash transfers (SCTs) as a new line of attackagainst extreme poverty. Most African SCT programmes involve theunconditional transfer of cash to households that are both asset-and labour-poor. The stated goals of these programmes are social:to improve the welfare of the treated households by providingcash and encouraging changes in behaviour related to nutrition,education and health. But by providing poor households withcash, SCT programmes also treat the local economies of whichthese households are part, by stimulating demand for local goodsand services. In light of the eligibility criteria for SCTs, ineligiblehouseholds may be more likely than eligible households to expandtheir production to meet new local demand. If the local supplyresponse is sufficiently elastic, the impacts in local economiesmay be expansionary rather than inflationary.
    Keywords: Productive, Spillovers, Social, Cash Transfers. Africa, Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation, LEWIE
    Date: 2014–07

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.