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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2014‒09‒05
fifty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Pardey, Philip G.; Beddow, Jason M.; Hurley, Terrance M.; Beatty, Timothy K.M.; Eidman, Vernon R. |
| Abstract: | [Supporting Material for “A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050.” Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 2014 (forthcoming)] |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umaesp:182192&r=agr |
| By: | Ivanic, Maros; Martin, Will |
| Abstract: | This study uses household models based on detailed expenditure and agricultural production data from 31 developing countries to assess the impacts of changes in global food prices on poverty in individual countries and for the world as a whole. The analysis finds that food price increases unrelated to productivity changes in developing countries raise poverty in the short run in all but a few countries with broadly-distributed agricultural resources. This result is primarily because the poor spend large shares of their incomes on food and many poor farmers are net buyers of food. In the longer run, two other important factors come into play: poor workers are likely to benefit from increases in wage rates for unskilled workers from higher food prices, and poor farmers are likely to benefit from higher agricultural profits as they raise their output. As a result, higher food prices appear to lower global poverty in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Food&Beverage Industry,Rural Poverty Reduction,Regional Economic Development,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2014–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7011&r=agr |
| By: | Cai, Yongyang; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Elliott, Joshua; Hertel, Thomas W. |
| Abstract: | The pattern of global land use has important implications for the world's food and timber supplies, bioenergy, biodiversity and other eco-system services. However, the productivity of this resource is critically dependent on the world's climate, as well as investments in, and dissemination of improved technology. This creates massive uncertainty about future land use requirements which compound the challenge faced by individual investors and governments seeking to make long term, sometimes irreversible investments in land conversion and land use. This study assesses how uncertainties associated with underlying biophysical processes and technological change in agriculture affect the optimal profile of land use over the next century, taking into account the potential irreversibility in these decisions. A novel dynamic stochastic model of global land use is developed, in which the societal objective function being maximized places value on food production, liquid fuels (including bio-fuels), timber production, and biodiversity. While the uncertainty in food crop yields has anticipated impact, the resulting expansion of crop lands and decline in forest lands is relatively small. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Environmental Economics&Policies,Climate Change and Environment,Forestry,Environment and Energy Efficiency |
| Date: | 2014–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7009&r=agr |
| By: | Marian Rizov; Anrej Cupak; Jan Pokrivcak |
| Abstract: | We estimate a food demand system for Slovakia using a recent household budget survey data for the period 2004-2011. The Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) augmented with demographic, regional and expenditure controls is employed based on preliminary non-parametric Engel curve analysis. In most samples demand for meat and fish and fruits and vegetables is expenditure and own-price elastic. On average all five food groups are found to be normal goods. Rural and low-income households appear more expenditure and price sensitive compared with the urban and high-income ones. Overall the food security situation in Slovakia has improved since the country’s EU accession. |
| Keywords: | Slovakia, Agricultural issues, Agent-based modeling |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6959&r=agr |
| By: | Lori Beaman; Dean Karlan; Bram Thuysbaert; Christopher Udry |
| Abstract: | We partnered with a micro‐lender in Mali to randomize credit offers at the village level. Then, in no- loan control villages, we gave cash grants to randomly selected households. These grants led to higher agricultural investments and profits, thus showing that liquidity constraints bind with respect to agricultural investment. In loan-villages, we gave grants to a random subset of farmers who (endogenously) did not borrow. These farmers have lower – in fact zero – marginal returns to the grants. Thus we find important heterogeneity in returns to investment and strong evidence that farmers with higher marginal returns to investment self-select into lending programs. |
| JEL: | D21 D92 O12 O16 Q12 Q14 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20387&r=agr |
| By: | Ihtiyor Bobojonov; Dr. Aden Aw-Hassan |
| Abstract: | There are several regional trade agreements made amongst Central Asian countries during the transition period. However, the implementation of these agreements remains very restricted which causes limited exchange and flow of agricultural commodities between the countries. The market imperfections caused by state policies, poor market infrastructure and trade restrictions remain as the main challenge for small scale producers in Central Asia. This study analyses input and output price differentiations between the countries and main factors causing those prices. Furthermore, the paper examines the impact of easing those trade barriers on farm level welfare, especially under different climate change scenarios. Therefore, the paper aims at filling in the gap of knowledge about effects of trade barriers on farm gate prices and farmers’ welfare in Central Asia. The farm level prices, production and consumption patterns are analyzed using the data obtained from farm surveys conducted in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Changes in income and expenditure under trade liberalization at country, region (Central Asia and CIS) and world market level is estimated. Per capita income and expenditure changes are estimated for alternative market conditions. The impact of climate change on farm utilities is analyzed using integrated modeling tool which incorporates the climate change module and crop growth simulation model in the expected utility framework. The results show significant difference of farm gate prices of many agricultural commodities except wheat. Salient differences also found between the energy and fertilizer prices among these countries. Political disputes between some Central Asian countries are explained to be the main challenge for restricted trade between the countries. Liberalization of trade may create favorable economic conditions for many regions in Central Asian countries. However, potential gains from market integration are very region and country specific. The integrated model results show that easing commodity exchange between the countries may improve the adaptive capacity of the small scale producers especially in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan under different climate change scenario. |
| Keywords: | Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Agriculture, Regional integration |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5946&r=agr |
| By: | Şevket KALANLAR; Dr. A. Ahmet YÜCER; Dr. Muhammet DEMIRTAŞ; Dr. Şevket KALANLAR |
| Abstract: | Due to the increasing oil prices in Turkey, the fuel released with legal regulations, as the supply of fuel and diesel oil from 2013 to domestic agricultural products produced in the gradually bio-fuel blending mandates. Accordingly; the supply of gasoline as fuel types on the market; 2% in 2013, 2014 at least 3% extra for bio-ethanol produced domestic agricultural products is required. Diesel oil; at least 1% in 2014, at least 2% in 2015 and at least 3% in 2016 is produced by domestic agricultural products extra mandates to bio-diesel. The results of the analysis conducted in this context study, costs of policy, import requirement, minimum space requirements adhering to the criteria. Study on bio-fuel raw materials as wheat, corn, sugar beets; sunflower, rapeseed, safflower and soybean is taken into account. 34,5% of the fat in sunflower, soybean 18.2%, 44% of the Canola. Contains of ethanol ratio; 40% in corn, 34% wheat, Sugar beets 11% was accepted.The analysis of bio-energy in Turkey; the need to meet the demand for diesel fuel in 2014 0.169 million tons, 0.351 million tons in 2015, 0,546 million tons in 2016, 0.565 million tons in 2017, 0.583 million tons in 2018, 0.600 million tons in 2019, 2,071 million tons in 2020, have been identified. In Turkey; to meet the demand for fuels product needs 0.144 million tons in 2014, 0.139 million tons in 2015, 0.133 million tons in 2016, 0.127 million tons in 2017, 0.121 million tons in 2018, 0.115 million tons in 2019, 0.363 million tons in 2020 have been identified. The current oilseeds pattern in Turkey and production capacity, the targeted rate of bio-diesel fuel-mixture is quite inadequate to meet the quantity demanded. This demand breaks the food security. Because current agricultural structure and costs within the framework of a single product to meet this demand the impossible. According to the results of the analysis of bio-ethanol; the current crop pattern in Turkey and production capacity from 2013 the rate of bio-ethanol fuel-mixture of targeted demanded quantity is sufficient on its own to meet the bio-energy. In this context the areas of cultivation of agricultural products needed to meet these quantities are determined. Current agricultural policy tools and threads in the current situation are discussed in the context of the future in bio-fuels in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Energy, Agriculture |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6093&r=agr |
| By: | Ali Yousefi; Parisa Karbasi; Amir-mozafar Amini |
| Abstract: | Abstract Production of animal protein has a major role in the human nutrition and health and a large share of economic value-added in agricultural sector. The Iran government implemented the Subsidy Reform Plan (SRP) on December 18, 2010 as the biggest surgery to the nation's economy in half a century in order to replace the subsidies on bread and energy (80% of total) with targeted social assistance. Given the importance of dairy industry, it is essential to determine the positive and negative impact of SRP. The aim of this study is to analysis the temporal effect of SRP on the comparative advantage of dairy farms in 2009 and 2011.Data was collected from a survey of 65 members of Isfahan Industrial Dairy Farms Cooperation through face-to-face interviews based on a structured questionnaire. The comparative advantage of dairy farms has been analyzed in the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) framework by calculation the ratios of domestic resource cost (DRC), social cost benefit (SCB), nominal protection coefficient of the product (NPCO, NPCI) and effective protection coefficient (EPC).The results indicate that after SRP, the government introduced the new milk price distortion in order to support the consumers, the nominal protection coefficient on tradable inputs (NPCI) has been decreased and farmers pays indirect tax. Moreover, the dairy farms still have the comparative advantage of production, but the DRC ratio has been increased. In order to improve the dairy farm profitability and the farmer’s motivation, it is important to removal of the output price distortions and enhancing farmers' access to input markets. |
| Keywords: | Iran, Agriculture, Tax and public finance |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6048&r=agr |
| By: | Cristina Sarasa; Jean-Marc Philip; Julio Sánchez-Chóliz |
| Abstract: | In last years, policy demand for information about the economic consequences of water management has increased significantly. It is due to the interaction between the hydrological and economic realm works both ways: water is transformed for economic use and the impact of economic use on water availability and quality consequently has implications in both the short and long term for the transformation process to modify water for economic use (Brower and Hofkes, 2008). From literature, it is demanded additional analysis on policy interventions that could provide an incentive for adaptation responses to climate change (Dinar, 2012). Policy strategies could mitigate the longer-term economic effects of environmental change. In this line, the main purpose of this work is to find a tax policy strategy to apply to water management that lets mitigate the economic-wide impacts of water constraints, specifically in drought years, through an improvement in water efficiency in the long term. To do it, we use the methodological approach of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE). These models take into account the various inter-linkages between economic sectors and are particularly useful for the evaluation of water pricing policies (Brower and Hofkes, 2008). Therefore, an additional objective of this paper is to contribute to a growing literature that uses CGE models as a tool for the analysis of water management due to the majority of the studies are usually focused on energy and climate change. Since the challenge of water is a long-term matter, dynamic CGE models can help us to analyze water management with a view of the future economic impacts. These models present a wide range of possibilities that lead us to compare the economic impacts between a standard neoclassical CGE model with the ones of a model following a structuralist approach (Taylor, 1990). On the other hand, specific water basin models can help to evaluate and predict the impact of policy interventions on both economic and water systems (Brower et al., 2008). With these questions in mind, we examine the economic impacts from different alternative policies in a Spanish region which is dominated by a relevant irrigation scheme. The Ebro River Basin is the Spain´s largest river basin, occupying 17 per cent of its territory. Within the Ebro River basin, the irrigation of the province of Huesca has over 200,000 hectares, representing almost 40% of the utilised agricultural area (UAA) of Huesca and the 6% of the agricultural irrigated farmland in Spain (MARM, 2010). The output generated by the irrigation of Huesca reaches over 80% of total agricultural production in the province (DGA, 2009). The rationale for choosing the province of Huesca in Spain is based on various aspects. First, the major irrigation scheme of Spain is located in this area, which covers over 127,000 hectares, in particular, the Upper Aragon Irrigation System (CGRAA in Spanish acronyms) which includes 58 irrigation communities. This irrigation scheme also supplies water to several towns and cities, as well as ten industrial estates, and it is highly representative of irrigation in the Ebro valley. Second, the ready availability of data and collaboration in previous studies with this scheme has provide relevant information on water uses, levels of efficiency, cropping patterns and crop yields from 2001 to 2010, that mean that the CGRAA is ideally suited for the purposes of this study. In recent years, this irrigation scheme faces with a downward trend of water supply and some restrictions in water resource availability due to among other reasons the revegetation of headwaters, see Bielsa et al. (2011), the effects of climate change and the lack of regulation in this irrigation scheme. The current levels of water use efficiency in this irrigation scheme are very significant and suppose an efficient use, although it could be improved. They represent a great leap if we compare with the situation three or four decades ago. However, the volume of water supply in some years is insufficient for crops such as corn, rice, alfalfa or fruits, which are the most profitable and with high interest for agri-food industry, livestock and imports. These water constraints are provoking shocking changes in the cropping pattern removing towards less water demanding crops and with lower profitability, instead of the expected evolution (more weight of fruits, vegetables, corn,...). Finally, the water situation in this irrigation scheme could be a reflection on the situation in other arid areas with water constraints or with a downward trend in the volume of water available in the last years. In these areas the introduction of the most profitable and demanding crops could be really limited by the lack and insecurity of water supply. This water situation is represented into a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model that is developed with different structures and used for policy simulations. It is a multi-sector model in which water is also considered as a production factor. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of alternative assumptions applied to different tax policies that combine both exogenous and endogenous technological change. First, the results are presented with a standard CGE model in a steady state reference scenario with a 2030 time horizon. A second scenario takes into account the real evolution of water supply in the last years in this area. This forecast is based on a downward trend of water supply and water constraints that lead to water productivity losses in drought years. Keeping the use of a standard walrasian CGE model, this scenario shows that future droughts will drastically influence on the prices of water. In a third scenario, we include in the model a structuralist approach in which water prices are under control to assess the economic impacts of tax policies designed to stabilize the price of water and as a consequence, to smooth the economic-wide impacts in drought years. In a fourth scenario under a standard walrasian approach again, we simulate a tax policy designed to increase water efficiency through endogenous technological change. The level of water efficiency follows a Gompertz function that starts from the real initial value, increases gradually and finally is stabilized with time. In addition, we wonder what could be the level and type of taxes that is needed to increase water efficiency. We focus our analyze on the substitution in production and consumption at the sectoral level to observe the effects of the reallocation of water. Our results show that letting only market laws functioning without a strong policy strategy would be not enough for goods such as water, especially in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Spain, General equilibrium modeling, Energy and environmental policy |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5349&r=agr |
| By: | Virginie Doumax-Tagliavini; Cristina Sarasa, University of Zaragoza |
| Abstract: | In September 2013, the EU Parliament has called for a 6% limitation of crop-based biofuels (instead of 10% initially) and proposed a 2.5% binding incorporation target for cellulosic biofuels by 2020. In spite of this stated objective, the horizon of a large-scale adoption for advanced biofuels remains largely uncertain. Indeed, biofuels competitiveness is tightly linked to crude oil prices that also follow an uncertain evolution. In this context, including both uncertainties into the same analysis framework could be challenging. Focusing on France, this work proposes to address this issue. The main objective is to assess the economic and environmental impacts of first and second-generation biofuels. We also determine the conditions under which advanced biofuels could become available earlier regarding to the evolution of oil prices and public subsidies. We develop an original approach to incorporate uncertainty within a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated on 2009 French data. In line with the existing literature, cellulosic biofuels are modeled as latent technology (Reilly and Paltsev, 2007; Melillo et al., 2009) and biofuels by-products are included into the analysis (Taheripour et al., 2010). Using stochastic programming, we consider different scenarios depending on the oil price volatility and the changes in the fiscal incentives. This methodology allows us to compare the effects of first and second-generation biofuels as regards mainly agricultural land, food production and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results confirm the larger performance of advanced biofuels in terms of GHG emissions. They also show in which measure the technology improvement may reduce the pressure on food and land resources. Therefore, simulations provide guidelines for public deciders to design alternative fiscal policies to support advanced biofuels hand in hand with economic, social and environmental impacts. |
| Keywords: | France, General equilibrium modeling, Energy and environmental policy |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6941&r=agr |
| By: | Khuda Bakhsh - |
| Abstract: | Although fertilizer use has substantially increased overtime in Pakistan, its application is highly imbalanced resulting in wastage of scarce resources and additional cost to farmers and economy as well because fertilizer industry is among major consumers of natural gas in Pakistan. Nitrogenous fertilizers are commonly used in cotton production compared to other fertilizer nutrients. Sine, production of nitrogenous fertilizers involves natural resources, namely natural gas, its indiscriminate use leads to demand for more of natural gas. Pakistan is facing severe supply problems of oil and gas resources, so society suffers from external cost due to allocation of natural resources to fertilizer production. The need is to explore reasons for imbalanced use of fertilizer nutrients so policies may be made accordingly.The present study was designed to estimate the determinants of imbalanced use of fertilizer nutrients in Pakistani PunjabRespondents growing cotton crop were randomly selected for the present study. Farmers were grouped into two categories, those using balanced amount and those using imbalanced amounts. So, it is necessary to estimate factors causing this type of beahviour among farmers. As the dependent variable is binary, Logit model was employed to estimate factors having impact on imbalanced use of fertilizer nutrients.Results indicated that social networks, access to information and institutions, availability of financial resources augmented by off-farm income were significantly related with balanced use of fertilizer nutrients. Age, farming experience and primary education also affected the selection of nutrients. Thus, strengthening institutions, increasing access to information and capacity building of farmers may lead towards the optimum and balanced use of fertilizer nutrients in the study area, giving sustainable cotton production. |
| Keywords: | Pakistani Punjab, Agriculture, Energy |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5820&r=agr |
| By: | Ivanic, Maros; Martin, Will |
| Abstract: | The volume-based Special Safeguard Mechanism was proposed as essential for small, poor farmers and became the proximate cause of the collapse of the Doha Agenda negotiations in 2008. But is it helpful for these farmers, given that it is likely to be applied when farm output is depressed and many poor farmers in developing countries need to buy food? Stochastic simulations for 31 countries suggest that use of this safeguard in line with the proposed World Trade Organization rules would raise the world poverty headcount by an average of 24 million. The adverse poverty impact of the duty is larger when the quantity safeguard is triggered than it would be in other years, because lower farm output levels reduce or reverse the benefits to poor farm households from higher prices. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Markets and Market Access,Regional Economic Development,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2014–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7006&r=agr |
| By: | Tharcisse NKUNZIMANA; François Kayitakire |
| Abstract: | One of the pillars of food security in developing countries is the accessibility to food. Over the last decade, world food market experienced events during which food prices increased significantly. The periods of high food prices were also accompanied by a high degree of volatility in prices. Those events were somewhat transmitted on the local markets in developing countries. Traditionally, transmission of volatilities is analyzed in financial assets but the same exercise is not commonly done in agricultural markets. This research tries to handle the volatility in the selected food prices in agricultural sector and understand the magnitudes of price transmission across foods and countries. The questions to be answered in this study are the following: -Does price volatility occurs at the same degree in different cereal markets; -Is there any relationship between world/International market and domestic markets? -If there is any transmission, what is the speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium? To measure the price transmission model, the vector error correction model (VECM) developed by Engle and Granger (1987) is used in order to establish any relationship (long-run equilibrium, short-run dynamics) between prices from the World and the domestic cereal markets in different countries. The time series properties of each of the price variables will be examined by using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test (Fuller, 1976). The order of integration of each of the selected cereal prices is determined. Regarding the orders of integration, VECMs or vector auto-regressions (VARs) are specified and estimated. As developed in scientific literature on time series analysis, several criteria like Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) for lag lengths are verified before the VECM and VAR models. In order to handle volatility in different food price series, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) developed by Bollerslev's (1986) as extension from Engle (1982 is used. In this paper the exponential form of GARCH model specified by Nelson (1991) is mobilized to model the asymmetric effects of price shocks on the conditional variance between the World cereal prices and the domestic markets. At this stage, we do not have results but we have some assumptions/hypothesis. The first part on the literature review is finished. As now, we have the data sets on different markets in the countries, we will quickly try to have some results and submit as soon as possible the full paper. |
| Keywords: | Members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (also known by its French acronym, UEMOA): Benin, Burkina Faso, Ivory-Coast, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo, Agricultural issues, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5219&r=agr |
| By: | Miriam Frey |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of the planned free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine on inequality and poverty in the latter using a CGE-microsimulation model for Ukraine. Special attention is thereby given to the in-house production of agricultural and processed food goods generated by the Ukrainian households. Due to a lack of information on these activities in the national accounts data, this type of household production is neglected in an already existing CGE analysis of the welfare effects resulting from the EU-Ukraine FTA. However, in-house production of food products for own consumption plays a crucial role in Ukraine. According to a household expenditure survey for Ukraine 60.5% of the households are engaged in the production of agricultural goods like potatoes, eggs and cabbage and an even slightly higher percentage (61.6%) of them reported to produce processed food goods like dairy products and preserves. The CGE-microsimulation model used in this paper follows the top-down approach, meaning that variables, such as prices and factor returns which change as a result of the simulation of the trade integration in the CGE model are then transferred to the microsimulation model where they are treated as exogenous variables. The CGE model used here is a rather standard, small open economy, single-country model for Ukraine exhibiting perfect competition and constant returns to scale. It incorporates 38 sectors of production and a representative household which is disaggregated into four types according to the domestic poverty line and the place of residence (rural or urban). Labor is differentiated based on the level of education in skilled and unskilled labor and is assumed to be fully employed. The microsimulation model consists of a log-income and a discrete choice labor supply equation as well as of accounting identity and arithmetical computation equations. In-house production of agricultural and processed food products is not treated as being part of the – in most of the literature existing – labor market alternative “being self-employed”, but is modeled explicitly and analogous to the labor status as a discrete choice. This is mainly done for the following two reasons. Labor market status is assumed to be a choice made on the individual level, whereas the decision whether or not to participate in household production of agricultural and processed food goods for own consumption is made on the household level. The second reason is that the explanatory variables which influence the choice of the labor market alternative do not necessarily have to coincide with the ones that determine the decision on in-house production of food products. The data needed for the CGE model include the Ukrainian national accounts and input-output tables for 2007, additional statistics from national sources like information on indirect taxes, labor remuneration and tariffs, international trade statistics and a household expenditure survey for 2007 covering more than 10,000 Ukrainian households and more than 20,000 household members. The latter is also the basis for the microsimulation model. Concerning the household level, information on expenditures, place of residence, characteristics of the household head and land ownership are the most important variables. With respect to the household members, information on sex, age, education, labor market status and income are crucial. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Trade issues, General equilibrium modeling |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5587&r=agr |
| By: | Karim Mohamed; Adil El Ibrahimi |
| Abstract: | For these reasons, agriculture took advantage of big tax exemptions renewed until the end of 2013. The tax exemption of the sector is supposed to promote, attract and develop private investments. Actually, in the two last years, agricultural sector was the second one, after real estate, to benefit from exceptional fiscal measures, which represents almost 13,4% from the total measures according to the census of 2011. Dynamic EGC Model apart from the question of the place occupied by Moroccan agriculture into the economy, that led to the conception and the implementation of green morocco plan, we have to notice that tax exemption of agriculture has been the matter of royal concern, thanks to the high royal guidance to set up an appropriated system for agricultural sector since 2014, by taking into consideration the social instability of simple farmers. |
| Keywords: | Morocco, Agricultural issues, Agricultural issues |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5476&r=agr |
| By: | Jensen, Hans G; Anderson, Kym |
| Abstract: | When prices spike in international grain markets, national governments often reduce the extent to which that spike affects their domestic food markets. Those actions exacerbate the price spike and international welfare transfer associated with the terms of trade change. Several recent analyses have assessed the extent to which those policies contributed to the 2006-08 international price rise, but only by focusing on one commodity or using a back-of-the-envelope method. This paper provides a more comprehensive analysis that uses a global economywide model that is able to take account of the interactions between markets for farm products that are closely related in production or consumption. The model is able to estimate the impacts of those insulating policies on grain prices and on the grain trade and economic welfare of various countries. The results support the conclusion from earlier studies that there is a need for stronger World Trade Organization disciplines on export restrictions. |
| Keywords: | Markets and Market Access,Emerging Markets,Food&Beverage Industry,Climate Change Economics,Currencies and Exchange Rates |
| Date: | 2014–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7007&r=agr |
| By: | Jan Melichar; Kateřina KAPROVÁ; Milan ŠČASNÝ |
| Abstract: | Driving forces, economic transformation, suburbanisation, migration and recent construction of linear infrastructures have inevitably contributed to unfavourable land use trends around Europe. Arable land area has been continuously declining and has been replaced by artificial and built-up areas or other transformed areas (transport infrastructure). The construction of transport structures leads to fragmentation of the landscape and threatens the existence of many species. On the other hand, land use trends are more favourable in remote areas, which are not so economically attractive. The overall objective of our study is to provide an integrated assessment of land-use patterns that have been induced in Europe since 1990. We develop an integrative approach that enables us to investigate the impacts of driving forces on the state of ecosystems and biodiversity. The biodiversity change is measured by the Mean Species Abundance index, which comes from the family of approaches based on ecosystem intactness. Integrated assessment of biodiversity and land use changes based on Corine Land Cover data (CLC 1990, 2000, 2006) combines several methodological approaches including GIS, decomposition and econometric analysis. Regionally differentiated MSA indicator, according to NUTS 3 regions, was analysed using an index-based decomposition (additive and multiplicative methods linked to Divisia and Laspeyres index) and log-linear and weighted least squares regressions in order to assess the effects of driving forces such as change in economic scale and its regional structure. See above See above |
| Keywords: | NA, Agricultural issues, Agricultural issues |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5613&r=agr |
| By: | Emran, M. Shahe; Shilpi, Forhad |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence on the effects of agricultural productivity on wage, labor supply to market oriented activities and labor allocation between own farming and wage labor in agriculture. To guide the empirical work, it develops a general equilibrium model that underscores the role of reallocation of family labor engaged in the production of non-marketed services at home (`home production'). The model predicts positive effects of a favorable agricultural productivity shock on wage and income, but the effect on hired labor is ambiguous; it depends on the strength of reallocation of labor from home to market production by labor surplus and deficit households. Taking rainfall variations as a measure of shock to agricultural productivity and using sub-district level panel data from Bangladesh, we find significant positive effects of a favorable rainfall shock on agricultural wage, labor supply to market work and per capita household expenditure. The share of hired labor in contrast declines substantially in response to a favorable productivity shock which is consistent with a case where labor-deficit households respond more than the labor-surplus ones in reallocating labor from home production. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Productivity, Home Production, Market Work, Wage, Hired Labor, Labor Supply Response, Poverty Agricultural Productivity, Home Production, Market Work, Wage, Hired Labor, Labor Supply Response, Poverty |
| JEL: | J2 J3 O3 |
| Date: | 2014–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58099&r=agr |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Regional and Sustainable Development Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | The water–food–energy nexus is emerging as a critical issue in Asia and the Pacific. It is clear that solutions must be found to assure water security, thereby eliminating the immediate—and increasing—risk to food security, energy security, and economic growth and stability: water must be recognized as an economic as well as a social good. Governments need to be encouraged to think differently about water, take the longer-term view, and be mindful of the strategic and economic value of this limited resource. This publication is the result of a scoping study initiated by the Asian Development Bank to better understand the issues associated with the water–food–energy nexus in Asia and the Pacific. It provides high-level guidance on the choices available to address the region's water security issues. |
| Keywords: | water, food, energy, water secure future, water security, food security, energy security, water scarcity, water stress, supply-demand gap, economics of water, water-food-energy nexus, integrated water resource management, basin management, climate change, biodiversity, resource sustainability, governance, institutional capacity, resource protection, productivity, efficiency, data |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt125184&r=agr |
| By: | Glauben, Thomas; Prehn, Sören; Pies, Ingo; Will, Matthias Georg; Loy, Jens-Peter; Balmann, Alfons; Brümmer, Bernhard; Heckelei, Thomas; Hockmann, Heinrich; Kirschke, Dieter; Koester, Ulrich; Langhammer, Rolf; Salhofer, Klaus; Schmitz, Peter Michael; Tangermann, Stefan; von Witzke, Harald; Wesseler, Justus |
| Abstract: | For quite some time long-only index funds have been suspected of being responsible for price increases in agricultural futures markets. This suspicion has prompted demands to drastically limit long-only index funds' scope of activity. Such demands and their underlying diagnoses, however, contradict the current state of scientific knowledge. To date, the empirically oriented literature has not provided conclusive evidence that long-only index funds with their futures transactions significantly have increased the level or volatility of agricultural commodity prices. Indeed, recent theoretical works suggest that long-only index funds, pursuant to their investment strategy, rather stabilize agricultural commodity prices and fulfill an important collateralization and competition function in agricultural futures markets. The commitment to these funds reduces risk premiums and thus enables food producers to hedge against price fluctuations at lower costs. Mitigated risk premiums motivate farmers to put larger parts of their harvests into storage, which counteracts seasonal price fluctuations. To safeguard sustainable global food supply, long-only index funds should not be subjected to stricter market entry regulations. -- Long-only-Indexfonds stehen seit geraumer Zeit unter Verdacht, für die Preisanstiege an landwirtschaftlichen Warenterminmärkten verantwortlich zu sein. Hieraus wird die Forderung abgleitet, den Aktivitätsradius dieser Indexfonds drastisch einzuschränken. Allerdings stehen solche Forderungen sowie die zugrunde liegende Diagnose im Widerspruch zum aktuellen Stand wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnis. Die empirisch orientierte Literatur liefert bisher keine belastbare Evidenz, dass Long-only-Indexfonds mit ihren Termingeschäften das Niveau bzw. die Volatilität der Preise für Agrarrohstoffe signifikant angehoben haben. Neue theoretische Arbeiten weisen vielmehr darauf hin, dass Long-only-Indexfonds gemäß ihrer Anlagestrategie tendenziell die Agrarrohstoffpreise stabilisieren sowie eine wichtige Versicherungs- und Wettbewerbsfunktion auf Agrarmärkten erfüllen. Durch ihr Engagement sinken die Risikoprämien, so dass sich Nahrungsmittelproduzenten zu niedrigeren Kosten gegen Preisschwankungen absichern können. Die niedrigeren Risikoprämien motivieren Landwirte, einen größeren Teil ihrer Ernte einzulagern, was saisonalen Preisschwankungen entgegenwirkt. Im Sinne einer nachhaltigen Sicherung der globalen Nahrungsmittelversorgung sollte von strengen Marktzutrittsregulierungen der Long-only-Indexfonds abgesehen werden. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamopb:12e&r=agr |
| By: | Luc Savard; Dorothee Boccanfuso; Jonathan Goyette; Véronique Gosselin; Clovis Tanekou Mangoua |
| Abstract: | Quebec’s forests represent 20% of the Canadian forest and 2% of world forests. They play a major role for habitat preservation, supplying goods and services to the population and hence contribute to the economy of this Canadian province. Climate change will have an impact of the forest through increased droughts, warmer summers and winters or infestations such as the pine beetle (British Columbia and New Jersey). Two adaptation policies are simulated to be implemented to help the sector cope with CC direct and indirect effects. In our study we analyze the impact of CC on the forest industry in Quebec and on its economy. We also simulate two adaptation programs jointly with impact of CC of forestry. Our analysis is performed over a 40 year time span with a recursive dynamic CGE-micro-simulation framework allowing for distributional impact analysis. The impact of CC on the forestry sector are relatively small the secondary transformation industries support only a portion of the cost. Adaptation policies are efficient in reducing the negative economic and distributioinal impact. |
| Keywords: | Quebec/Canada, General equilibrium modeling, Microsimulation models |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6787&r=agr |
| By: | Şevket KALANLAR; Dr.A. Ahmet YÜCER; Dr.Şevket KALANLAR; Dr.Muhammet DEMİRTAŞ |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study demographic characteristics of consumers, to identify the relationship between living standards and food shopping habits, determine the level of awareness by the MFAL of measures taken to ensure food safety and to develop recommendations in this context.Research is the largest city in Turkey and 13.7 million people live in Istanbul, made in the first quarter of 2013. Proportional sampling method was used in this study. Making process of sampling margin of error of 1.4% and the 95% confidence interval studied. In addition to the unknown probability value of the subject on the values of p and q are considered to be 0.5. 2106 as a result of the calculations according to these data, the sample size was determined as t. Chi-square analysis of the data, Visual Relationship analysis (TIA), and logistic regression analyzes were used.Consumers are average age 38.32, college graduates 46.3%, family population 3.4, number of children 2.6, the average family income 2.495 TL/month, average food expenditure 610 TL/month, Consumers are the most purchase from supermarkets that red meat (45.3%), chicken meat (56.5%), milk (70%), dairy products (74.8%) while they purchase fresh fruit and vegetables from district market (47.3%), while food most of their attention to freshness and expiration date, reliable information for the food they receive a large proportion of TV and the internet have been identified. MFAL for public health policies, bread, salt and bran rates and arrangements for the school milk program and school canteens located right by consumers and supported. In some applications (increasing the amount of control, establishment of ALO Food Line and implementation arrangements for the sale of pesticides) and are no longer seen by consumers largely underreported. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Agriculture, Other issues |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6087&r=agr |
| By: | Elisabeth Nindl |
| Abstract: | The present papers establishes a framework that allows to investigate the determinants of the extensive and intensive margin of participation in the Fairtrade certification scheme. We use this knowlegde to identify a causal effect of Fairtrade certification on growth in the agricultural sector in low- and middle-income countries in order to assess whether participation in Fairtrade indeed reduces poverty among smallholders and marginalized farmers. First of all we compile a unique dataset on the number of Fairtrade certified producer cooperatives across countries and time. With this dataset at hand, the determinants of the extensive and intensive margin of participation in Fairtrade are modelled in a two-stage problem using a zero inflated negative binomial model. The growth regressions are estimated with a set of different estimation methods with Blundell-Bond system GMM estimation as our preferred method. We find that large countries with a labor intensive agricultural sector are most likely to have Fairtrade certified producer cooperatives. Finally, the growth regressions show that there is indeed a small positive effect on agricultural growth, suggesting that the benefits of Fairtrade (fixed minimum price, price premium etc.) indeed help to reduce poverty. |
| Keywords: | All low- and middle-income countries as listed by the World Bank , Agricultural issues, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6866&r=agr |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Central and West Asia Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | More than 138 million people in the Indus River Basin in Pakistan depend on irrigated agriculture. But rising population pressures, climate change, and the continuous degradation of ecosystem services have resulted in increased flood risks, worsened by inadequate flood planning and management. The devastating 2010 flood alone caused damage of about $10 billion. This report proposes a contemporary holistic approach, applying scientific assessments that take people, land, and water into account. It also includes planning and implementation realized through appropriate policies, enforceable laws, and effective institutions. |
| Keywords: | pakistan floods, flood risk, indus basin, integrated water resources management, iwrm, basin water, flood management, flood control, floodplain, flood damage, Indus, Indus river, monsoons, Pakistan |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt125133-3&r=agr |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (East Asia Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | Climate change threatens grassland ecosystems and herders’ livelihoods in Mongolia. Herders depend on pasture and water resources for their livestock, and are thus among the most vulnerable groups to climate change impacts. However, although climate change impacts on grassland ecosystems are measurable, current institutional capacity and financial resources limit implementation of adaptation practices. This publication reviews grassland management and traditional nomadic pastoralism in the local Mongolian context, and identifies potential adaptation strategies and practices, such as rotation and resting of pasture, long-distance migration of animals in fall and/or winter, and reduction of livestock stocking rates. |
| Keywords: | mongolia, grasslands, desertification, climate change, mobile pastoralists, overgrazing, deforestation, herders, nomadic culture, livestock, pasture, adb, asian development bank |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt136010&r=agr |
| By: | Isabel Teichmann |
| Abstract: | Biochar is a carbon-rich solid obtained from the heating of biomass in the (near) absence of oxygen in a process called pyrolysis. Its deployment in soils is increasingly discussed as a promising means to sequester carbon in soils and, thus, to help mitigate climate change. For a wide range of feedstocks and scenarios and against the baseline of conventional feedstock management, we calculate the technical greenhouse-gas mitigation potentials of slow-pyrolysis biochar in 2015, 2030 and 2050 when the biochar is incorporated into agricultural soils in Germany and when the by-products from biochar production - pyrolysis oils and gases - are used as renewable sources of energy. Covering the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, our analysis reveals that biochar allows for an annual technical greenhouse-gas mitigation potential in Germany in the range of 2.8-10.2 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalents by 2030 and 2.9-10.6 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalents by 2050. This corresponds to approximately 0.4-1.5% and 0.3-1.1% of the respective German greenhouse-gas reduction targets in 2030 and 2050. |
| Keywords: | Biochar, agriculture, Germany, climate change, soil carbon sequestration |
| JEL: | Q15 Q24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1406&r=agr |
| By: | Virginie Doumax; Jean-Marc Philip; Cristina Sarasa |
| Abstract: | The 2009 Directive on Renewable Energies (called RED) has set up ambitious targets concerning biofuels consumption in the European Union. This paper addresses this issue in the case of France, focusing on alternative tax policies designed to stimulate biofuels consumption. Our main objective is to determine under what circumstances tax policies could help the French government to achieve the 2020 biofuels consumption mandate. A common response is to increase taxes on fossil fuels in order to enhance the price competitiveness of their renewable substitutes on the fuel market. However, recent studies (Timilsina et al., 2011a; Barker et al., 2008; Weber et al., 2005) have shown that the way the government uses the tax revenue is a key determinant. Indeed, recycling the tax revenue to households through a lump-sum rebate is not an efficient strategy since the impact on biofuels consumption is limited, even with higher tax rates. Hovewer, when the tax revenue is used to finance a biofuel subsidy, the market penetration of biofuels increases significantly. On the other hand, some studies underline the role of oil prices in the expansion of biofuels worldwide. Timilsina et al. (2011b) show that if oil prices rise 150% from their 2009 levels by 2020, the resulting penetration of biofuels would be 9%. But they don’t take into account the context of rising oil prices into a tax policy analysis. With these questions in mind, we propose to go further and to combine both features, tax policies and rising oil prices, into a same model. The aim is to determine the minimal level of additional taxes on fossil fuels needed to achieve the 2020 biofuels target when oil prices increase. On the other hand, we take into account the budgetary constraints of the government by eliminating the differential tax rate between fossil fuels and renewable fuels. To do it, we increase the level of the excise-tax on biofuels by 35% in order to observe if the 2020 biofuels target could be also reached under this assumption. For this purpose, we develop a multi-sector, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated on 2009 French data. Standard CGE models take into account the various inter-linkages between economic sectors and are particularly useful for the evaluation of tax policies. Our first scenario consists in designing different tax schemes on fossil fuels. We compare the level of additional taxes required to reach the 2020 consumption target when the tax rate increases progressively and when the rise is less graduated. Then, in a second scenario, we wonder which would be the level of taxes on fossil fuels to reach the 2020 consumption target when the excise-tax rate on biofuels is increased. In a third scenario, we combine the precedent simulation with an exogenous increase of oil prices with the assumption that future evolution of oil prices will follow the trend observed on the past period. This paper also investigates the economy-wide effects of these alternative scenarios, notably on the agricultural sector. Indeed, the impacts of a larger expansion of biofuels may increase the agricultural outputs, while an exogenous increase of oil prices may lead to an output drop. Finally, we introduce explicitly biofuels by-products in the analysis, notably oilseed meals, in order to check if their presence reduces the price impacts of the biofuel production. Indeed, recent studies (for e.g. Taheripour et al., 2010) have shown that the presence of by-products could mitigate the price impacts of biofuel production. Results of scenarios 1 and 2 suggest that the target could be achieved with acceptable levels of taxation. Nevertheless, scenario 2 implies higher tax rates on fossil fuels and larger but limited welfare losses. The needed level of additional taxes is lower when it is analyzed in a context of rising oil prices, as it was expected. Besides, we find that the development of biofuel consumption only partially offsets the depressive effect of oil prices on the agricultural output. The introduction in the model of biofuels by-prducts reveals smaller changes in agricultural prices, particularly in the livestock sector, confirming that models that omit by-products may overstate the economic impacts of biofuels mandates. |
| Keywords: | The model concerns the French national economy., Energy and environmental policy, Agricultural issues |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5417&r=agr |
| By: | Stefan Kersting; JProf. Silke Huettel; Prof. Martin Odening |
| Abstract: | Structural change is a fundamental phenomenon that accompanies the development of market-based economies. Structural change in agriculture can be understood in a broad sense as adjustments of economic entities in the agricultural sector in response to various driving forces. Depending on the perspective and the aggregation level of the analysis these entities are single farms, value chains, markets, or institutions. Decisions that affect structural change are, for example, market entries and exits of farms, growth and shrinkage, change of the production structure or the adoption of new technologies (Chavas, 2001). These decisions not only have an impact on business goals, such as profitability and competitiveness, but also on public goals, such as employment, sustainability, and food security. Understanding causal relationships between entrepreneurial decisions, political instruments, and exogenous factors is an indispensable requirement for assessing and predicting structural change as well as for governing structural change in terms of economic, environmental, and social objectives. Due to the complexity of the involved causal relationships modelling structural change is usually carried out on a very abstract level using restrictive assumptions. This paper suggests an equilibrium modelling framework that supports the analysis of structural change in an economy considering three important characteristics: First, entry and exist decisions of farms as well as prices and production output are determined endogenously. Second, decisions are made in a dynamic framework. This allows to track changes in the composition of the sector. Third, the model is driven by a stochastic component. Thus our model resembles a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE). To our best knowledge, this is the first time that this model class has been applied in an agricultural context. The DSGE modelling framework is used explore a long-lasting puzzle in agricultural economics: What is the impact of production quota on the dynamics of structural change? It is frequently hypothesized that the introduction of a production quota slows down structural change and hinders efficient adjustment processes (Colman, 2000). But is this also true if quotas are traded (Barichello, 1995)? Clearly, a sectoral production quota causes a strong interdependence of farms within this sector. Farms can only grow if free capacities are available and thus exits of other farms are crucial for any further industry development. From a more general perspective, this kind of interdependency can be generated by the existence of any production factor which is limited on a sectoral level, as for example agricultural land. Production capacity is thus a valuable asset and determines a farm’s liquidation value. As a consequence, the price for investing in additional capacity depends also on the exit and shrinking rate of the other firms determining free capacity (e.g. Weiss, 1999 or Zepeda, 1995). If firms benefit from economies of size investing in production capacity is an option to increase profitability and competitiveness. However, under capacity constraints like production quotas this is more expensive (e.g. Richards and Jeffrey 1997). Against this background we conjecture that profit maximizing firms do not base their investment/disinvestment decision on an isolated view, it is rather that regional structure and its expected evolution is taken into consideration. The literature offers different theoretic approaches to investigate the impact of capacity constraints on entry/exit of firms in an industry. However, considering the interaction among the firms and the consequence on structural development are not well elaborated. Generally, game theoretic models are capable to model growth and shrinkage of firms in a given market with endogenous supply, but they are difficult to handle, in particular if there are more than two firms within the market (e.g. Besanko and Doraszelski, 2004). The real options approach primarily focusses on the optimal timing of investment and neglects the mentioned interdependency of farms’ decisions and the relation between exit and investment (cf. among others Dixit and Pindyck, 1994, or Leahy, 1993). Authors like Jovanovic (1982) and Hopenhayn (1992) model entry and exit of firms into an industry endogenously, however, without modelling of capacity constraints. In view of the relevance of capacity constraints in general and particularly for the agricultural sector, it is somehow surprising that the literature has little to offer with regard to a formalized theoretical analysis of the impact of capacity constraints like production quotas or land constraints on structural change. Against this background, our objective is to investigate how farms’ exit decisions are affected by the uncertain ability to invest in production capacity, and vice versa. We aim to show the implications for the structural change of the agricultural industry when firms take prospective entry/exit of other firms into consideration for their own optimal investment/disinvestment behaviour. Our analysis will improve the understanding of the interdependency between entry and exit of farms and shed light on the question whether the inability to expand production capacity increases the likelihood that inefficient firms leave the market. For this reason, we incorporate capacity constraints into the model as proposed by Hopenhayn (1992) and derive a dynamic stochastic equilibrium for a finite time horizon. We further apply this model to different market structures – structure is here defined as firm size distribution – and show how the industry dynamics depend on the underlying distribution of firms and are affected by the capacity constraint. We employ the stochastic dynamic framework proposed by Hopenhayn (1992), to analyse entry and exit in an industry over a finite time horizon. A continuum of firms is considered, to model a perfectly competitive output market. The firms are assumed to be identical and to produce a homogeneous good. They differ just with respect to their firm specific productivity shock which is stochastic and follows a Markov process. The structure of the industry at a given point in time is described by the distribution of productivity shocks among all firms. In each period, all active firms choose their optimal amount of output according to their own productivity and a given market price. Production incurs a fixed cost which is the same for all firms and total market demand is described by an inverse demand function. At the end of each period all incumbents decide whether to leave or stay in the industry. If they cease production they receive a positive premium depending on the total mass of the industry. This takes into account, that the firm’s production capacity as a liquidation value is more valuable when there are more firms in the industry looking for additional production capacity. Continuing firms are hit with a new productivity shock and start production in the next period. A firm stays in the industry if its expected discounted future profits offset the exit premium. The expected profits depend on a firm’s current productivity as well as on the future price sequence. The exit-point describes the critical threshold for being indifferent between staying in or leaving the market. All firms with a productivity above the exit-point stay in the industry while all firms with a lower productivity take the exit premium and quit. New firms can enter the industry in each period, but they have to pay entry costs which are affected by the mass of the industry. If there are more firms willing to enter the market, the entry is more expensive. Each new firm gets a productivity shock drawn from the same distribution function and there will be firms entering the industry as long as their expected future profits cover the entry costs. In this regard, the term “new firms” also refers to active firms who invest the entry costs and expect to improve their productivity this way. The mass of new entering firms together with the exit-point and the stochastic process for productivity shocks fully describe the change of industry structure from one period to the next. We make some explicit assumptions on the stochastic process and other functions to show that a dynamic stochastic equilibrium exists. In such an equilibrium the firms base their exit/entry decision on the evolution of output prices, exit premium and entry costs in future periods. We compute equilibria for different scenarios to show the influence of capacity constraints on industry dynamics. Furthermore, we check how changes of the underlying starting distribution of firm productivity affect the equilibrium outcome and which implications this has for the structural change of highly or weakly concentrated regions in the agricultural sector. We find that both, the underlying starting distribution and the imposed capacity constraints, have an impact on firms’ investment and disinvestment decision in a dynamic equilibrium. In a scenario without capacity constraints we observe almost all new firms enter the industry in the first period. If we incorporate capacity constraints, however, entry occurs also in higher time periods. This is due to the varying entry costs which would be too high if all firms entered the industry at the same time. Thus, some firms wait for others to leave the market first and postpone their investment to a later date. In addition to this, we find that less productive firms tend to stay longer in the industry if the entry of new firms is restricted by capacity constraints. Another interesting finding is that the equilibrium outcome and the structure of the industry in subsequent periods are sensitive to the assumed starting distribution. This could be an instrument to make explicit statements about the prospective structure of the agricultural sector. By fitting the starting distribution to the firm size concentration in a selected region and calibrating crucial parameters of the model, we could be able to simulate changes of this industry structure for a number of time periods. |
| Keywords: | Germany, General equilibrium modeling, Agricultural issues |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5300&r=agr |
| By: | Ole Boysen |
| Abstract: | The repeated occurrence of high food price spells has started intensive research on the impacts of these events on income distribution and poverty, in particular. Initial empirical work attempting to assess the poverty impacts used first-order analysis using household data that differentiates between net buyers and net sellers of food (e.g., Ivanic and Martin, 2008; Wodon et al., 2008; Zezza et al., 2008; Aksoy and Isik-Dikmelik, 2008; and on Uganda: Benson et al., 2008; Simler, 2010). One common feature as well as a major critique of such analyses is that they disregard the second-order impacts of the price changes on both the supply and consumption sides (see, e.g., Aksoy and Hoekman, 2010). The objective of the present study is to quantify the effect of this neglect on the consumption side. More specifically, the aim of this study is twofold. First, to provide an indication whether it is worthwhile to invest in the estimation of a demand system for similar consumption side poverty impact analyses. Second, to provide a sense of the magnitude in the loss of fidelity in using a less flexible instead of a more flexible demand system within computable general equilibrium analyses of poverty impacts. As the basis of this study, a 13-item censored Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) is estimated over data of the Uganda 2005/2006 National Household Survey (UNHS) which covers a representative set of 7426 households. The estimated parameters are used to simulate the impact of the 2007/2008 and 2011 food price spikes on poverty. The shocks are calculated from price time series data for several food commodities and Ugandan market locations which are matched to the households of UNHS. As the Linear Expenditure System (LES) is one of the most popular demand systems used in computable general equilibrium models, a LES is calibrated, for each household separately, to approximate the QUAIDS elasticities in the point of the base data as done in Yu et al. (2003). Then, the non-behavioural first-order poverty impacts as well as the behavioral poverty impacts employing the two demand systems are simulated. The demand system simulations are conducted fixing the base-period utility and calculating the compensating variation based on an algorithm due to Vartia (1983). To date, the estimation of the 13-item censored QUAIDS has been completed and the Vartia algorithm for the simulations has been implemented. We expect that for large price shocks, such as the 2007/2008 and 2011 price spikes, the use of a behavioural demand model will dampen the negative effects on consumption significantly. Nevertheless, it is difficult to conceive what impact the choice between the QUAIDS and the LES will have on the results. The results from this study will: First, provide an indication whether it is worthwhile to invest in the estimation of a demand system for similar consumption side poverty impact analyses. Second, provide a sense of the magnitude in loss of fidelity in using a LES instead of a more flexible demand system like the QUAIDS within CGE model analyses of equivalent price shocks. |
| Keywords: | Uganda, Impact and scenario analysis, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5438&r=agr |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | This sector assessment, strategy, and road map highlights the Government of Myanmar’s plans and strategies for addressing priority needs for the agriculture, natural resources, and environment sector and identifies possible preliminary areas of international assistance. It assesses key sector development needs by analyzing the strengths, constraints and weaknesses, various risks, and potential threats, as well as the opportunities, including further evolving the development partnership with the Asian Development Bank (ADB). This sector assessment, strategy, and road map also provides lessons learned from other countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion, identifying the specific elements that can help Myanmar in its transition from a centrally planned economy to a more market-based system. Hence, ADB’s reengagement activities will be focused on developing a conducive environment for the sector’s growth. |
| Keywords: | myanmar, mya, food crop subsector, water resources subsector, opportunities, policies, plans, strategy, environment, agriculture, natural resources, rural finance, rural infrastructure, country-based interventions, areas for international assistance |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt136157&r=agr |
| By: | Marie-Eve Yergeau; Dorothée Boccanfuso; Jonathan Goyette |
| Abstract: | Reducing extreme poverty and protecting the environment are two of the eight Millennium Development Goals (UN, 2012). Approximately 60% of the ecosystems currently used to produce goods and services are being exploited in an unsustainable manner. The establishment of protected areas is a widespread practice designed to curb environmental degradation. Between 1990 and 2011, the number of protected areas increased of 155% (WDPA, 2012). However, it is often criticized as limiting the expansion of agriculture and natural resource extraction, especially in poor regions (Ferraro et al., 2011). Others maintain that protected areas can increase welfare if the opportunity cost of conservation is less than the benefit generated by alternative uses of the land, such as ecotourism (e.g. Sims, 2010). The World Tourism Organization emphasizes that ecotourism development must, specifically, create income opportunities for local communities, while minimizing negative impacts on the natural environment (WTO, 2012). Ecotourism in protected zones thus appears to be this alternative use of the land, concurrently contributing to the goals of reducing poverty and protecting ecosystems (Andam et al., 2010; Sims, 2010). In the litterature, theoretical and empirical results on the relation between protected areas and welfare diverge. The few theoretical models developed so far generally assume that before being protected, land is used optimally. The establishment of a protected area thus constitute a constraint to this optimal use. Assuming as well that land protection does not generate other benefits at the local level, the main intuition emerging from these models is that protected areas will reduce economic wellbeing (Robalino, 2007; Robinson, Albers and Williams, 2008; Robinsin and Lokina, 2011). However, other authors have empirically tested the relation betweeen protected areas and welfare. For instance, four recent studies have been conducted in Costa Rica, Thailand and Bolivia (Andam et al., 2010; Sims, 2010; Ferraro and Hanauer, 2011; Canavire-Bacarreza and Hanauer, 2013). The authors all found that the establisment of protected areas contributed to economic development and poverty alleviation. They suggested that ecotourism development in the protected areas generated an income that was sufficient to compensate the loss caused by conservation. Moreover, Ferraro and Hanauer (2011) found an evidence that ecotourism contributes to poverty reduction in protected areas. The main objective of this paper is to increase the understanding of the link between conservation and poverty alleviation in order to contribute to the achievement of the Millenium Development Goals. To do so, we develop and test a theory explaining the relation between protected areas, ecotourism and wellbeing. We aim at reconciling the theoretical and empirical results found in the literature. We develop a static theoretical model consisting of one local agent and two sectors : extractive and ecotouristic. The model distinguishes itself because land protection allows to develop an alternative sector which generates a source of income at the local level. On the one hand, production in the extractive sector causes natural resources degradation. On the other hand, the ecotouristic sector produces from environmental quality. Therefore, the extractive sector causes a negative externality on the ecotouristic sector. At the same time, a planner imposes an environmental constraint that restrains the production in the extractive sector, which allows the ecotouristic sector to develop. This way, we relax the assumption generally made that land protection does not generate local benefit. The theoretical results are then tested on Nepalese data. We expect our theoretical model to reconcile the theoretical and the empirical results. The main expected result is that the alternative sector developed from land protection will affect the local welfare. The negative externality caused by the extractive sector, combined with the environmental constraint imposed by the planner, should generate a transfer of the production from the extractive towards the ecotouristic sector provided that the latter becomes more profitable. This way, land protection will be likely to generate an increase in the local welfare, as it is found in the empirical literature. The model will also allow to verify the natural resource extraction rate according to the environmental constraint severity. This result will be relevant for the purpose of environmental policies. |
| Keywords: | Nepal, Developing countries, Energy and environmental policy |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6716&r=agr |
| By: | Dirk Willenbockel; Abeer Elshennawy; Sherman Robinson |
| Abstract: | Due to the high concentration of economic activity along the low-lying coastal zone of the Nile delta and its dependence on Nile river streamflow, Egypt's economy is highly exposed to adverse climate change. Adaptation planning requires a forward-lookingn assessment of climate change impacts on economic performance at economy-wide and sectoral level and a cost-benefit assessment of conceivable adaptation investment. The study aims to demonstrate the usefulness of an intertemporal computable general equilibrium modelling approach for such an assessment. This study develops a multisectoral intertemporal general equilibrium model with forward-looking agents, population growth and technical progress to analyse the long-run growth prospects of Egypt in a changing climate. Based on a review of existing estimates of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, labor productivity and the potential losses due to sea-level rise for the country, the model is used to simulate the effects of climate change on aggregate consumption, investment and welfare up to 2050. Available cost estimates for adaptation investments are employed to explore adaptation strategies. On the methodological side, the present study overcomes the limitations of existing recursive-dynamic computable general models for climate change impact analysis by incorporating forward-looking expectations. Moreover, it extends the existing family of discrete-time intertemporal computable general equilibrium models to which our model belongs by incorporating population growth and technical progress. On the empirical side, the model is calibrated to a social accounting matrix that reflects the observed current structure of the Egyptian economy, and the climate change impact and adaptation scenarios are informed by a close review existing quantitative estimates for the size order of impacts and the costs of adaptation measures. The simulation analysis suggests that in the absence of policy-led adaptation investments, real GDP towards the middle of the century will be nearly 10 percent lower than in a hypothetical baseline without climate change. A combination of adaptation measures, that include coastal protection investments for vulnerable sections along the low-lying Nile delta, support for changes in crop management practices and investments to raise irrigation efficiency, could reduce the GDP loss in 2050 to around 4 percent. |
| Keywords: | Egypt, Impact and scenario analysis, General equilibrium modeling |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5325&r=agr |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (East Asia Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | This regional study includes the People’s Republic of China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Mongolia and examines how strategies for adapting to climate change up to 2050 can be combined with measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in East Asia. Besides discussing climate model results for costs of adaptation in infrastructure, coastal protection, and agriculture, the study estimates costs for sector-specific mitigation options and the total abatement potential for 2020 and 2030. Long-term strategies for addressing the impacts of climate change in East Asia are explored with a focus on the linkages between adaptation and mitigation taking account uncertainty about key climate variables. Finally, it discusses opportunities for enhancing the effectiveness of some critical climate change policies such as regional carbon markets. |
| Keywords: | economics, climate change, east asia, china, japan, korea, mongolia, carbon markets, CO2 emissions, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, climate policy |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt125169-2&r=agr |
| By: | Britta Stoever |
| Abstract: | Demographic change challenges the economy in many ways. The impact on pension systems, health care, labour force etc. has already been widely analysed. An ageing population directly increases the number of retired persons, the need for nursing places and the contribution rates for social security systems for example. It also indirectly influences the production structure by shifts in the composition of final demand through changes in consumer behaviour. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impact of age specific consumer behaviour and demographic change on production, labour market and GDP components. Earlier research led to consumption functions for 13 different consumption purposes depending on the age structure of the German population (as presented at EcoMod 2012). These are implemented in the macro-econometric input-output model INFORGE (INterindustry FORecasting Germany) developed by GWS. The model has been used for economic forecasts and simulation or scenario analysis in many projects and studies. Amongst other features it is characterised by a high disaggregated sector information provided by National Accounts data and input-output tables. Demand and supply side are equally modelled taking the interacting relationship between production sectors and private household demand as well as price effects into account. Overall, the model structure gives the opportunity to trace impact and linkages of changes in the structure of private household demand on production and other parts of the economy. Two different scenarios are calculated and compared in order to quantify the impact of age induced changes in demand. In the first scenario it is assumed that the population composition does not change, i.e. the shares of the single age groups stay the same over the projection period. The results will be used as baseline. The second scenario includes the future population composition given by the population projection of the Federal Statistical Office. Due to demographic change shares of older age groups increase. Comparing both scenarios, consequences of an ageing population for production and service sectors, the labour market, GDP and its components can be identified. Demographic change induces changes in private household consumption expenditures via age specific consumer behaviour. This will affect the structure of final demand and hence the goods and services that have to be provided. Consequently the structure and amount of intermediate products alters as well. The lower demand for food and beverages by elderly as the share of elderly in the population rises for example will not only reduce the necessary output of the sector manufacture of food products and beverages but also the output of the agriculture and wholesale trade sectors that are main providers of intermediate products for manufacture of food products and beverages. As result it is expected that service sectors (especially household related health services) gain importance. Services are characterised by a comparably small amount of imported intermediate inputs, lower wages and salaries per employee and higher gross value added per sector. The amount of imported goods should decline: Industries are the main importing sectors and their output will reduce relative to services. |
| Keywords: | Germany, Macroeconometric modeling, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5147&r=agr |
| By: | Satyanarayan Kothe |
| Abstract: | To be completed. To be completed. To be completed. |
| Keywords: | India, Impact and scenario analysis, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:7355&r=agr |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Economics and Research Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | The Pacific developing member countries of the Asian Development Bank are highly vulnerable to the predicted effects of climate change, including higher sea levels, intense storm surges and cyclones, erratic rainfall patterns, and major temperature fluctuations. This study identifies the effects and quantifies the costs of these adverse outcomes to the Pacific island economies, with details provided for selected key sectors including agriculture, fisheries, tourism, coral reefs, and human health. It then presents policy recommendations and action steps for the countries to minimize or mitigate these impacts, particularly by mainstreaming climate change in their development plans, adopting forward-looking and risk-based approaches to climate change, and climate-proofing both their programs and infrastructure so that poverty eradication and sustainable development efforts can continue regardless of the vagaries of climate. |
| Keywords: | fiji, papua new guinea, samoa, solomon islands, east timor, vanuatu, climate change, coral reefs, cyclone, economic impact, economics of climate change, el niño, emissions scenarios, extreme weather events, natural disasters, pacific region, rising sea-levels |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt136119-2&r=agr |
| By: | Khalid Siddig; Adam Ahmed; Somaia Jaafar; Ali Salih |
| Abstract: | 1 Introduction Prior to the cession of the Southern Sudan from the Sudan in July 2011, there were many challenges that trap the population of many areas of the country by poverty. The education, health, water and sanitation services are extremely poor as a result of the long civil conflict (1955–1972 and 1982–2005) and unfavorable climatic changes and natural disasters. Consequently, adult illiteracy rate reached 75% of total population with the primary school enrolment being only 20% (GOS, UNCT 2004). Only 27% of the population had access to safe drinking water and only 16% had access to sanitation facilities and (AEPRC, ARC, ICARDA, 2009). The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which is signed between the Sudanese government and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLM) in 2005, brought the more than 20 years of war to an end. According to the CPA, there should be a redistribution of the country’s wealth with particular focus on natural resources led by oil and that was to be implemented during the interim period of six years (2005–2011). In January 2011, the people in south have voted for secession from Sudan, and accordingly the new country of south Sudan was born. This study’s focus is on providing detailed assessment of the poverty situation in south Sudan after the signature of the CPA and before the secession, i.e. during the interim period (2005 – 2011). The data used in the analysis are collected from the Upper Nile state and the findings of the study are expected to form a base for further evaluation of the poverty situation in the pre/post secession of southern Sudan. The Upper Nile state is the fourth biggest state in the South Sudan by population with 964,353 inhabitants in 2010, which constitutes 12% of the total population in the country (NBS, 2010). The state has 12 counties of which the Renk County is the second biggest by population with 137750 inhabitants, which constitutes 14.3% of the state’s population. Accordingly, the Renk County is selected as a case study. Renk County has an area of 23 thousand square kilometers and is located in the northern part of the state. Its climate belongs to the semi-arid zone with annual average rainfall ranging between 400-800 mm. (De Zuviria 1992). The county depends on the White Nile River, a few seasonal streams, man-made dug pools (haffirs) and irrigation canals as the main sources of drinking water (Anyong 2007). The population of the Renk County was estimated at 137750 persons (CBS and NBS 2009). The income earned by most of the population in the study are is low and the majority of the people are involved in a subsistence economy and small scale farming on clay and heavy loamy soils (Onak 2005). Some of the population also relies on collecting Arabic gum and fishing (AEPRC, ARC, and ICARDA, 2009). Renk County has one hospital and few health centers and clinics, 38 primary schools, 8 secondary schools and 2 universities (Administration Unit of Renk County, 2008). 2 Research Methodology To collect the required data for pursuing this study, household field survey that differentiates urban from rural households in the Renk County is used. A simple random technique has been used, since the respondents belong to interrelated tribes and thus portray homogeneous characteristics. The designated sample comprises 245 households, about 1.01% of the County's population. After the data collection and refinement, the clean sample became 200 observations, of which 75 are urban and 125 were rural households. The considered households are considered representative to the county as it involves households from the major county’s residential towns and villages. The Renk County includes into five Payams (residential towns) and large number of villages, each termed as Buma (residential village) (Renk Information Unit, 2010). The vast area of the county and the security situation made total population coverage almost impossible. Our sample selects 15 households from each of the five Payams and 10 12 households from each of the 12 Bumas to equivalently cover the four geographical locations in the County totaling to the 75 and 125 respondents from the Payams and Bumas, respectively. For comprehensive assessment of the poverty situation in the study area, this study employs several methods of analysis. First, it employs three different measures to construct a food poverty line for the study. Second, it uses Engel Curve Equation to estimate the total poverty line. Third, it uses (DAD) software to calculate: (1) the Foster Greer Thorbecke (FGT) measures including the poverty incidence, poverty gap and poverty severity; (2) the inequality measures including Gini Coefficient, estimation and construction of the Lorenz curve, besides the Quintile Dispersion Ratio (QDR) and food share. A brief description of each of these methods is provided hereafter. 3 Preliminary Findings Results drown from the Food-poverty-line reveals similarities among rural and urban households in the study area. The food-poverty-lines for rural and urban households are SDG 1.85 and 1.83 per person/day, respectively. Nevertheless, the calories intake between rural and urban households exhibited a significant difference. On the contrary, results of the poverty line show completely different story as the lines are SDG 2.38 and SDG 3.5 for the rural and urban households, respectively. This are explained by the higher costs paid by urban households mainly on non-food items. Results of the FGT measures of poverty indicate that poverty incidence, gap and severity are more prevalent among urban household (87%) than rural households (73%). This could be due to the huge influx of Internally Displaced People (IDPs) and refugees during the civil war and the lack employment opportunities in the study area. Results show that 41%, 73% and 96% of the urban households are living below the poverty line if the standard poverty lines of US$ 1/day, US$ 1.25/day and US$ 2/day are considered, respectively. Corresponding shares among rural households are 63%, 82% and 97%, respectively. Keywords: Poverty, South Sudan, Inequality. |
| Keywords: | South Sudan, Developing countries, Miscellaneous |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5454&r=agr |
| By: | Yuri Yevdokimov |
| Abstract: | Climate change has become one of the most serious consequences of human activities. According to the IPCC Fourth assessment report, the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) generated by human activities is the primary cause of the climate change and especially global warming. In general, transportation is one of the areas where climate change problem is the most severe. On the one hand, with passage of time vehicle usage will result in more greenhouse gases, which would contribute to further climate change; on the other hand, climate change itself makes transportation infrastructure, vehicles and operations vulnerable to various impacts. Unfortunately, very little has been done in order to estimate economic losses due to climate change impacts on transportation. THis study tries to capture this gap.In this study, climate change impacts and their economic consequences for Atlantic Canada ground transportation network are analyzed. First, major climate change impacts in the area are identified. Second, the best economic model to evaluate consequences of the climate change impacts is chosen. Third, using the existing literature and studies that describe future climate changes in the region, various scenarios of future challenges for the regional ground transportation network are specified. Finally, economic consequences of the regional climate change impacts on the ground transportation network are evaluated. The above specified consequences are imposed on a dynamic general equilibrium model and their cumulative impacts are traced over time.Climate change impacts could reduce the volume of transpiration associated with analyzed regional network by 0.07 to 0.14 million vehicles per year compared to the current volume of 4.89 million. It could lead to the loss in value added by 11.136 million per year. |
| Keywords: | Atlantic Canada, General equilibrium modeling, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6465&r=agr |
| By: | Paris, Quirino |
| Abstract: | The paper demonstrates the existence of a unique solution of the PMP problem when both quantities and prices are taken as calibrating benchmarks. Furthermore, the paper shows how to obtain a distribution of output supply and input demand elasticities that match available information about them in the form of previously estimated parameters for an entire region or sector. The framework is applied to a sample of small farms. |
| Keywords: | positive mathematical programming, solution uniqueness, supply elasticities, Demand and Price Analysis, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C6, |
| Date: | 2014–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ucdavw:181606&r=agr |
| By: | Virginie Doumax-Tagliavini; Jean-Marc Philip; Cristina Sarasa |
| Abstract: | The 2009 Renewable Energies Directive (RED) has set up ambitious targets concerning biofuel consumption in the European Union by 2020. Nevertheless, budgetary constraints and growing concerns about the environmental integrity of first-generation biofuels have imposed a phasing out of the fiscal instruments to promote them. Focusing on France, this paper combines an exogenous increase in oil prices and tax policies on fossil fuels. The objective is to determine the efficiency of an alternative incentive scheme for biodiesel consumption based on a higher price of the fossil fuel substitute. Policy simulations are implemented through a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated on 2009 French data. The results show that the 10% biodiesel mandate set by the RED would not be achieved even if the fixed taxes on diesel reach the same level as those on gasoline. Although integrating the rise in oil prices into the fiscal framework improves the biodiesel penetration rate, it remains slightly below the target. Moreover, we find that the effects of biofuel consumption are limited to the biofuel chain sectors. In other agricutural sectors, the substitution effect of biodiesel with diesel is partially offset by the pricing effect induced by higher energy production costs. see above See above |
| Keywords: | France, Energy and environmental policy, Energy and environmental policy |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:6245&r=agr |
| By: | Thomas Schinko; Judith Köberl; Franz Prettenthaler; Birgit Bednar-Friedl; Christoph Töglhofer; Georg Heinrich; Andreas Gobiet |
| Abstract: | Even if all greenhouse gas emissions stopped at once, temperatures are predicted to continue rising due to the inertia of the climate system. As skiing tourism in the Austrian Alps is highly climate sensitive, higher temperature and changed precipitation patterns require increased artificial snow making. However, spa and urban tourism rely less on climatic conditions and may benefit from a shift in demand. In this paper, we assess the different climate change impacts and adaptation options for the Austrian tourism sector up to 2050 by taking account of macroeconomic feedback effects. We find in each of the climate scenarios negative effects on demand in all tourism region types. For the summer season, the extent of potential climate change impacts are found to be smaller and the impact direction to be less clear. Due to macroeconomic feedback effects, also non-tourism sectors are affected, but while until 2020 negative spillover effects emerge due to reduced demand from tourism sectors, the effect becomes positive until 2040. Appropriate adaptation measures may counteract a substantial fraction of climate change impacts, but this increases production costs, especially for artificial snow making. In particular, adaptation leads to price increases in the “focus on winter tourism” region for all climatic scenarios in 2020. In contrast, adaptation in the other tourism region types may lead to price decreases due to higher cost savings from reduced heating and reduced relative prices from other inputs. See above See above |
| Keywords: | Autria, Energy and environmental policy, General equilibrium modeling |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5601&r=agr |
| By: | Ingilab Ahmadov |
| Abstract: | Analyze extractive industry governance in Azerbaijan in comprehensive integrated manner (value chain) in order to ensure long term sustainable development in the country. Qualitative, Quantitative and Comparative methodology to consider the hypothesis and trying to prove that value chain approach will impact to extractive industry governance in Azerbaijan positively. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Energy, Agriculture |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5985&r=agr |
| By: | Reza Bagherian; Majid Sanaei |
| Abstract: | The degree of popular participation in development programs is a major determinant of success or failure but the factors which make participation efforts successful still remained a mystery. Many studies have developed numerous and sometimes different views concerning to the dimensions of participation. Most of these literature's tends to be descriptive and rarely applies theory. This study was designed to analyze and modeling the people participation in Watershed Management Programs in Iran by using the framework of social exchange theory and determine the role of this theory in explaining people participate in Watershed Management Programs.In this Research we have modeled social exchange theory as an approach to people participation in watershed resources management projects in Iran.Multiple regression analysis discovered that exchange factors explained 33 percent of variation in the level of people participation in watershed management programs. This study found that social exchange theory is an appropriate perspective to explain level of people participation but participation is a complex issue and future researchers might use multiple perspectives for explaining participation. |
| Keywords: | Iran, Environmental and water issues, Agriculture |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5817&r=agr |
| By: | Mato Amboage, Rosa; Da Rocha, José María |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the benefits of including age-structure in the control rule (HCR) when decision makers regard their (age-structured) models as approximations. We find that introducing age structure into the HCR reduces both the volatility of the spawning biomass and the yield. Although at a fairly imprecise level the benefits are lower, there are still major advantages for actual assessment precision of the case study. Moreover, we find that when age-structure is included in the HCR the relative ranking of different policies in terms of variance in biomass and yield does not differ. These results are shown both theoretically and numerically by applying the model to the Southern Hake fishery. |
| Keywords: | management strategy evaluation, harvest control rules, reference points, robustness, risk |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:13257&r=agr |
| By: | Zhu Qianting; Wujing; Wangzheng |
| Abstract: | Using agent-based modeling, this study creates a global carbon trading simulation system, and simulates the global carbon trading market under different scenarioes. To evaluate the effect of quota-based carbon emission permits trading mechanism globally, this article constructs a carbon trading model by using ABS modeling technology, and then develops a global carbon trading system, finally examining the capital flows of carbon trading and its impact on global climate protection. Simulation results shows that :( 1) the results of carbon trading depend on quota allocation. To offset the numerous historic carbon emissions, developed countries such as US would face huge quota deficits in the former scenario. (2) With a decrease in global carbon emission quotas and an increase demand for carbon emissions, the global carbon price will rise in the future.(3) The implementation of carbon trading is helpful for transferring capital mainly from developed countries to developing countries. (4)Under the carbon emission trading process, developed countries will purchase a large number of emissions quotas from developing countries, therefore, the cumulative carbon emissions per capita in developed countries will be still much higher than that in developing countries. (5) In both scenarios, carbon emission trading always increases the global Ramsey utility. |
| Keywords: | China (CN), the US (US), the EU (EU), Japan (JP), the former Soviet Union (FSU), and rest of the world (ROW)., Agent-based modeling, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6876&r=agr |
| By: | Jean Louis Brillet |
| Abstract: | To study the consquences of the Trans Pacific Partnership on the Vietnamese economy Using a five product econometric modelto measure the impact of individual elements, then synthetize the full set of measures. Vietnam, along with 11 other countries having a Pacific coast (including the USA and Canada), is now finalizing negotiations on an agreement, which will change profoundly the conditions of trade in the region. Our goal is to understand the consequences of the agreement, and test if it will have favorable consequences for Vietnam, considering that, as all treaties of this kind, we have to measure the balance of both positive and negative individual decisions. For this we shall use a five product model, developed for the Vietnamese Ministry of Planning and Investment. The products are: Agriculture, Manufacturing, Construction, Non-Financial Services and Financial Services. The model will use annual data for the period 1995-2012, built especially for the project by the General Statistical Office. Its structure can be described as short term Keynesian, with long term classical features. Its uses a Cobb-Douglas production function, and it features a price-wage loop, with a WS-PS wage determination. Its equations follow globally an error correction framework. It identifies Foreign Direct Investment, through its motivations and its impact on structural parameters of the economy. It has been estimated using a system method, and the process mostly met with success, in spite of the volatility of data and the ongoing transition process, which questions the stability of formulations. In our study, we shall start from a reasonable 10 year forecast, and shock in success the elements of the agreement: tariffs rates, quotas, local subsidies. Then we will use the actual decisions, or what we know of them at the time of the study, to summarize the outcome of the actual agreement. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, Macroeconometric modeling, Trade issues |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6983&r=agr |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction - Rural Poverty Reduction Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Poverty Reduction - Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping Rural Development - Regional Rural Development |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19324&r=agr |
| By: | L. Lambertini; G. Pignataro; A. Tampieri |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyse a setup where consumers are heterogeneous in the perception of environmental quality. The equilibrium is verified in a setting with horizontal and vertical (green) differentiation. Profits are increasing in the misperception of quality, while, the investment in green quality decreases the more the goods are substitutes. We further consider the introduction of either an emission tax or an environmental standard. The former rises the investment in environmental quality due to the higher cost of production, whereas in equilibrium quality always improves after the introduction of the latter. We show that an optimal environmental standard is an effective regulatory instrument against greenwashing and that the efficacy of the interventions is conditioned to the damage distribution and the aggregate level of emission. |
| JEL: | L13 L51 Q50 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp958&r=agr |
| By: | Gareth Green; Timothy J. Richards |
| Abstract: | Environmental policy decisions are dynamic in nature. Assumptions on the functional structure and rate of discounting have significant impacts on policy decisions regarding when to act and how much to invest. Environmental benefit-cost analysis historically has employed exponential discounting structure and market discount rates for evaluating environmental policy. Though here has been significant research in the lab indicating that discount functions may be hyperbolic, the research has focused primarily on monetary rewards (Lowenstein and Prelec 2002; Benhabib, Bisin and Schotter 2010). However, there has only been limited research indicating that environmental goods may also be discounted in a hyperbolic manner (Viscusi and Huber 2008; Karp 2007). We examine the structure and rate of discount functions for a variety of environmental goods to determine if people discount different environmental goods differently. We estimate a flexible discount function (Prelec) that allows us to determine the structure and rate of discounting for different types of public goods. We employ a front-end delay in the reward, similar to Anderson et al, to insure that any evidence of hyperbolic discounting is not due to having an immediate payoff. Though there have been several studies that have looked at discounting of public goods (Viscusi, Huber and Bell) and public bads (Svenson and Karlson 1989; Nikolaij and Hendrickx 2003; Hendrickx and Nicoloaij 2004; and Bohm and Pfister 2005), we examine discounting behavior for different types of public goods within the same sample. We select the public goods such that benefits differ in their level of use value and time frame of occurrence. We use three different types of public goods: improvements in public parks, improvements in water quality for aquatic life, and reductions in carbon emissions. Improvements in parks and water quality are similar in time frame, but differ in use value. Improvements in water quality and reductions in carbon emissions are similar in use value, but differ in time frame. Examining these three different public goods with slightly different characteristics will allow us to determine how people discount different types of public goods, which critical to understanding public policy choices toward environmental goods. Preliminary results indicate that people discount different types of goods differently. Mainly that people place a higher discount rate on environmental goods with use value and a lower discount rate on environmental goods with non-use value. We also find that environmental discount rates are quasi-hyperbolic in structure. |
| Keywords: | United States, Energy and environmental policy, Agent-based modeling |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5345&r=agr |
| By: | Sheila M. Olmstead; Hilary Sigman |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether countries consider the welfare of other nations when they make water development decisions. We estimate econometric models of the location of major dams around the world as a function of the degree of international sharing of rivers. We find that dams are more prevalent in areas of river basins upstream of foreign countries, supporting the view that countries free ride in exploiting water resources. We find weak evidence that international water management institutions reduce the extent of such free-riding. |
| JEL: | F53 Q25 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20389&r=agr |
| By: | Roula Inglesi-Lotz; Jessika Bohlmann |
| Abstract: | One of the most severe problems of the modern world is the climate change and its important negative consequences to the environment. Human activity, particularly the consumption of energy, has been considered being one of the main factors contributing to the changing of climate in the last decades (IPCC, 2007). To tackle the future changes of the environment, among other measures, a change in the current ways of generating energy is imperative. Traditional generation techniques such as coal-burning have detrimental effects to the environment and hence, internationally, countries have turned towards more environmentally-friendly generation techniques from renewable sources such as solar and wind that are also in synergy with many aspects of sustainable development (Stiglitz, 2002). Developed countries promote renewable energies (RE) with ultimate purpose to strengthen the energy security and control their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Moselle, 2011); while the developing economies see solutions in the use of RE to the challenges of rural electrification and lack of access to electricity (Munasinghe 1990, Pereira et al. 2010). The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) illustrates the hypothesis that a country is performing environmentally worse at the early stages of economic growth and development but subsequently, as the economic growth rises, the environmental quality improves. Although in theory, the hypothesis can be justified, the results of the empirical studies remain inconclusive. Possible reasons to explain this phenomenon can be: (a) the transition of the economies from clean agricultural economies, to high polluting secondary sector-based economies and finally to clean service-based economies and (b) at higher income levels, people do not worry about their surviving needs and tend to improve their preference for environmental quality. Examining the existence of EKC for the South African case and the rest of Africa will be particularly interesting and relevant for South Africa and other African economies that are already in a certain path of growth and development but in parallel they are also committed internationally to reduce emissions and promote clean and renewable energies. This paper will be able to answer the following research questions: • What has the recent international literature concluded on the EKC hypothesis? • Theoretically, where does the hypothesis stand on? • Does the choice of the indicator for environmental performance have an impact on the findings? • Which is the most appropriate methodology to be used in an empirical analysis of EKC for South Africa and the African countries? • Using this methodology, is the EKC hypothesis confirmed or rejected for South Africa? What are the reasons behind the findings? • Are there interventions that can promote a “tunnel-through” for South Africa? What can the country learn from international best practice? • What are the policy implications of the findings and how should the policy makers use them? References IPCC (2007). Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland Moselle, B. (2011). Why support renewables?. EPRG spring research seminar. University of Cambridge. UK. Munasinghe, M. (1990). Rural electrification in the Third World. Power Engineering journal: 189-202. Pereira, M.G.,Freitas, M.A.V. and Silva, N.F. (2010). Rural electrification and energy poverty: empirical evidences from Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews: 14:1229-1240. Stiglitz, J. (2002). Globalization and its discontents. Penguin Books Ltd. London, UK. Numerous studies have estimated EKCs for certain air and water pollutants as well as other indicators proxying environmental performance. As noted Arrow et al. (1995) and Stern et al. (1996), these estimated regressions are reduced-form relationships which mean that they reflect correlation rather than a causal relationship. Nevertheless, these studies provide evidence that, for at least those pollutants involving local short-term health hazards, market and institutional mechanisms have eventually brought about a reduction in environmental damage during the course of economic growth (Cole et al. 1997). Cole et al (1997) extended past empirical studies by including more environmental indicators such as carbon dioxide, methane, and others. “The employment of a reasonably comprehensive data set permits the examination of a number of hypotheses relating to the association between economic growth and the environment. First, that pollutants with a local short-term impact (e.g., suspended particulate matter) will have estimated turning points at lower per capita income levels than those environmental indicators whose impact is more global in nature (e.g., carbon dioxide)” (Cole et al. 1997). In our analysis, we will follow Cole et al. (1997) with the idea of using different indicators for South Africa and compare the results. The basic model is: Et= f( Yt, Xt) where Et denotes the environmental indicator in per capita form in the country at year t, Yt denotes per capita income in the country at year t, and Xt represents exogenous factors, such as trade intensity and the level of technology in the country at year t. Two alternative functional forms are employed for estimating equation (1) from a cross-country/regional panel set: quadratic in levels and quadratic in logarithms. These are written as: Et= (α + μ F) + β Yt+ γ Yt2+ Xt +et (1) and ln Et= (λ +κ F) + η lnYt + θ(lnYt)2+Xt+ εt (2) A cubic function can also be considered, even though that Cole et al. (1997) pointed that the fact that every cubic relationship necessarily extends to plus or minus infinity was deemed to be unrealistic. An environmental quality path exists if there is a statistically significant relationship between an environmental indicator and income. A path displays a turning point if β> 0 and γ<0 in equation (1) and η>0 and θ<0 in equation (2). Income at the turning point, denoted by Y* is Y*=(-β/2γ) in equation (1) and Y*=exp(-η/2θ) in equation (2). A priori, the quadratic logs function would seem to provide a more realistic income–environmental quality path than the quadratic levels function because of the symmetrical nature of the latter. If, for example, pollution is considered, this symmetry implies, first, that pollution levels will fall at the same rate as they increased and, second, that these pollution levels will become negative, probably in a short space of time. This is in contrast to the quadratic logs function which falls away only gradually, once it passes the turning point, as the curve asymptotically approaches zero. I will critically evaluate various econometric methodologies that would seem appropriate to quantify the above discussed theoretical framework. Among them, we will consider cointegration techniques such as ones using time series data (cointegration as the ones proposed by Granger, Johannsen or the ARDL), Vector AutoRegression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), or panel data techniques such as the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) or Seemingly Unrelated regressions (SUR). References Arrow, K., B. Bolin, R. Costanza, P. Dasgupta, C. Folke, C.S. Holling, B.-O. Jansson, S. Levin, K.-G. Maler, C. Perrings and D. Pimentel (1995), ‘Economic growth, carrying capacity and the environment’, Ecological Economics 15(2): 91–95. Cole, M.A., Rayner, A.J. and Bates, J.M. (1997). The environmental Kuznets curve: and empirical analysis. Environment and Development Economics, 2: 401-406. Stern, D.I., M.S. Common and E.B. Barbier (1996), ‘Economic growth and environmental degradation: The environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development’, World Development 24(7): 1151–1160. The results of this paper will confirm or not the EKC hypothesis and also, make some useful suggestions with regards to the proxies to be used in such papers in the future as well as the appropriate methodologies. |
| Keywords: | South Africa, Energy and environmental policy, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6378&r=agr |