New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2014‒07‒28
23 papers chosen by

  1. Global Agricultural Value Chains, Standards, and Development By Johan Swinnen
  2. Self-Selection into Credit Markets: Evidence from Agriculture in Mali By LORI BEAMAN; DEAN KARLAN; BRAM THUYSBAERT; CHRISTOPHER UDRY
  3. Sustainability and food & nutrition security: A vulnerability assessment framework for the Mediterranean region By Paolo PROSPERI; Thomas Allen; Martine PADILLA; Luri Peri; Bruce Cogill
  4. Wait and Sell: Farmers’ individual preferences and crop storage in Burkina Faso By Tristan Le Cotty; Elodie Maître d’Hôtel; Raphaël Soubeyran; Julie Subervie
  5. Is it the climate or the weather? Differential economic impacts of climatic factors in Ethiopia By Mintewab Bezabih; Salvatore Di Falco; Alemu Mekonnen
  6. Staple food market regulation in Algeria, what is the alternative policy? A CGE analysis for wheat By Hilel HAMADACHE; Sophie Drogue
  7. Non-Farm Enterprise Productivity and Spatial Autocorrelation in Rural Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia and Nigeria By Owoo, Nkechi S.; Naudé, Wim
  8. Food competition in world markets: Some evidence from a panel data analysis of top exporting countries By Donatella Baiardi; Carluccio Bianchi; Eleonora Lorenzini
  9. A wavelet-based copula approach for modeling market risk in agricultural commodity markets By RIADH ALOUI; MOHAMED SAFOUANE BEN AISSA; DUC KHUONG NGUYEN
  10. Recovery Performance of Primary Agriculture Credit Societies in India: An Assessment By Mazumder, Rabin; Chakravarty, Chandrasekhar; Bhandari, Amit Kumar
  11. Redefining the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem within spatial econometrics, the case of the aggregation problem. By Michal Bernard Pietrzak
  12. Concepts and methods for sustainability assessment: Insights from food security By Paolo PROSPERI; Luri Peri
  13. Milk supply contracts and default incidence in Kenya By Mailu, Stephen; Will, Margret; Mwanza, Rosemary; Nkanata, Kinyua; Mbugua, David
  14. Robustness of norm-driven cooperation in the commons to environmental variability By Maja Schlüter; Alessandro Tavoni; Simon Levin
  15. Household electricity demand in Spanish regions. Public policy implications By Desiderio Romero-Jordán; Pablo del Río; Cristina Peñasco
  16. Holy Cows or Cash Cows? By Orazio Attanasio; Britta Augsburg
  17. The Aggregation Dilemma in Climate Change Policy Evaluation By Ingmar Schumacher
  18. Informed and Uninformed Opinions on New Measures to Address Climate Change By Carola Kniebes; Christine Merk; Gert Pönitzsch; Katrin Rehdanz; Ulrich Schmidt
  19. Collective Action and Armed Group Presence in Colombia By Margarita Gáfaro; Ana Maria Ibáñez; Patricia Justino
  20. Network economics and the environment: insights and perspectives By Sergio Currarini; Carmen Marchiori; Alessandro Tavoni
  21. The determinants of CAP reform: learning from the European financial crisis and CAP 2013 By Patricia Garcia-Duran; Montserrat Millet
  22. A simple framework for the estimation of climate exposure By Xavier Vollenweider
  23. US Policies toward Liquefied Natural Gas and Oil Exports: An Update By Cathleen Cimino; Gary Clyde Hufbauer

  1. By: Johan Swinnen
    Abstract: Understanding the development implications of agri-food value chains is crucial as they are a fundamental component of developing countries’ growth potential and could increase rural incomes and reduce poverty. This note reviews some of the implications of these global agri-food value chains for developing countries and global poverty reduction. I focus on five aspects: (a) smallholder inclusion in value chains; (b) impacts on smallholder income and food security; (c) technology transfer and access to inputs; (d) labor market effects and impacts on gender and rural poverty; and (e) the interaction between liberalization policies and value chains. I summarize key insights and provide references to a rapidly growing literature.
    Keywords: Value Chains, Agriculture, Food, Standards, Development, Poverty, Trade, Foreign Direct Investment
    Date: 2014–07
    Abstract: We partnered with a micro-lender in Mali to randomize credit offers at the village level. Then, in no-loan control villages, we gave cash grants to randomly selected households. These grants led to higher agricultural investments and profits, thus showing that liquidity constraints bind with respect to agricultural investment. In loan-villages, we gave grants to a random subset of farmers who (endogenously) did not borrow. These farmers have lower – in fact zero – marginal returns to the grants. Thus we find important heterogeneity in returns to investment and strong evidence that farmers with higher marginal returns to investment self-select into lending programs.
    Keywords: credit markets; agriculture; returns to capital
    JEL: D21 D92 O12 O16 Q12 Q14
    Date: 2014–05
  3. By: Paolo PROSPERI (Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs, INRA; Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM); Università degli Studi di Catania); Thomas Allen (Bioversity International); Martine PADILLA (Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM)); Luri Peri (Università degli Studi di Catania); Bruce Cogill (Bioversity International)
    Abstract: Recurrent food crises and climate change, along with habitat loss and micronutrient deficiencies, are global issues of critical importance that have pushed food security and environmental sustainability to the top of the political agenda. Analyses of the dynamic linkages between food consumption patterns and environmental concerns have recently received considerable attention from the international and scientific community. Using the lens of a broad sustainability approach, this conceptual article aims at developing a multidimensional framework to evaluate the sustainability of food systems and diets, applicable to countries of the Mediterranean region. Derived from natural disaster and sustainability sciences, a vulnerability approach, enhanced by inputs from the resilience literature, has been adapted to analyze the main issues related to food and nutrition security. Through causal factor analysis, the resulting conceptual framework improves the design of information systems or metrics assessing the interrelated environmental, economic, social, and health dynamics of food systems.
    Keywords: food systems, sustainable diets, environment, metrics, resilience, système alimentaire, crise alimentaire, alimentation durablerégime alimentaire, résiliencedurabilité
    Date: 2014
  4. By: Tristan Le Cotty; Elodie Maître d’Hôtel; Raphaël Soubeyran; Julie Subervie
    Abstract: This paper investigates the reasons why African farmers differ in storage behavior and establishes a causal link between farmers’ time and risk preferences and storage. We first provide a stylized on farmstorage model in which impatience and risk aversion interact in the storage decision process. We show that impatience decreases grain storage whereas risk aversion may increase or decrease the quantity of grain stored from the harvest season to the lean season. We then test these propositions using original data on agricultural decisions, which we have collected from 1,500 farmers in two regions of Burkina Faso, who were also asked hypothetical questions about risk aversion and time discounting. Parameterized to our data, the model predicts that stored quantities decrease with impatience and increase with risk aversion. We then turn to an econometric analysis and provide an identification strategy which tackles a sample selection issue in our data [...].
    Date: 2014–07
  5. By: Mintewab Bezabih; Salvatore Di Falco; Alemu Mekonnen
    Abstract: This paper assesses the distinct impacts of weather and climate change measures on agricultural revenue of farm households in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. This distinction is highlighted by observations in the temperature data, which show that the pattern of temperature for both short term and long values follows a bell-shaped distribution, with the striking feature that the extreme ends of the distribution have fatter tails for the long term values. The analysis employs monthly rainfall and 14 temperature categories related to weather measures and four categories corresponding with the extreme ends of the long term temperature distribution. The analysis also distinguishes between summer and spring seasons and different crops in recognition of Ethiopia’s multi-cropping and multi-season agriculture. The major findings show that temperature effects are distinctly non-linear but only when the weather measures are combined with the extreme ends of the distribution of the climate measures. In addition, rainfall generally has a less important role to play than temperature, contrary to expectations in rain-fed agriculture.
    Date: 2014–02
  6. By: Hilel HAMADACHE (Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs, INRA; Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier, Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes); Sophie Drogue (Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs, INRA)
    Abstract: In this paper we present a Social accounting matrix and a computable general equilibrium model of the Algerian economy for 2009. The model is then use to perform scenarios simulation of reduction and removal of consumption subsidies on the wheat sector in Algeria.
    Keywords: social accounting matrix, general equilibrium, food subsidy, algeria, marché agricole, politique agricole, prix alimentaire, ble tendre, matricemodèle d'équilibre généralalgérie
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Owoo, Nkechi S. (University of Ghana); Naudé, Wim (Maastricht University)
    Abstract: The productivity of non-farm enterprises in rural Africa may be associated with the productivity of other spatially proximate farm and non-farm enterprises. To test for the presence and significance of such spatial autocorrelation we use data from the geo-referenced 2011 Ethiopian Rural Socioeconomic Survey (ERSS) and the 2010/2011 Nigeria General Household Survey (NGHS). We find evidence of significant spatial autocorrelation. Productivity of non-farm enterprises is widely dispersed across space in both countries. In Ethiopia rural non-farm enterprises are more productive in locations where farms are less productive. In Nigeria, we find evidence for spatial autocorrelation at the individual enterprise level but not at the community level, once we control for location variables. Hence, taking spatial autocorrelation into account using spatial lag and spatial error models, we find education, age, size of the household, religious affiliation and community infrastructure are significant determinants of the labour productivity of non-farm enterprises in Ethiopia and Nigeria. This is the first time, to the best of our knowledge, that the productivity of rural non-farm enterprises in Africa has been studied in this way.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, Africa, rural development, agriculture, spatial autocorrelation, Ethiopia, Nigeria
    JEL: L26 C21 M13 O55
    Date: 2014–06
  8. By: Donatella Baiardi (Department of Economics, Quantitative Methods and Business Strategies, University of Milano-Bicocca); Carluccio Bianchi (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia); Eleonora Lorenzini (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relevance of relative prices and world income as determinants of food exports for the top trading countries in the period 1992-2012 using a panel data framework. A distinction between processed and unprocessed goods is drawn and, within this last category, a specific focus on commodities is made. We find that price elasticities generally take lower values for processed goods, and the opposite holds for income elasticities. Processed goods are also characterized by an inverse relationship between price elasticities and average unit values. The overall analysis leads to the conclusion that both emerging and advanced countries should increase their export specialization in processed goods. Furthermore, developed economies could face the fierce competition from emerging countries by enhancing the quality content of their processed goods exports.
    Keywords: Food Exports, Price and Income elasticities, Cross-country comparisons, Panel data analysis, Panel Granger causality
    JEL: F14 L66 Q17 C23
    Date: 2014–07
    Abstract: We consider the problem of accurate market risk modeling for agricultural commodity products over heterogeneous investment horizons using copulas and wavelet methods. Our results indicate that the degree and structure of the dependence of daily commodity returns on the three market risk factors (federal funds rate, USD/Euro exchange rate, and world stock market fluctuations) vary according to the time scale. Changes in the USD/EUR exchange rate and the stock market index are the dominant risks for agricultural commodity markets. Moreover, the tail dependence on the daily returns of the three market risk factors is also scale-dependent, and frequently asymmetric. Finally, there is evidence to suggest that the application of the wavelet-copula model improves the accuracy of VaR estimates, compared to traditional approaches.
    Keywords: Agricultural commodities, Extreme-value copula, Wavelet, VaR, CVaR
    JEL: Q14 C52 C58 G11 G17
    Date: 2014–07–15
  10. By: Mazumder, Rabin (Army Institute of Management, Kolkata); Chakravarty, Chandrasekhar (Asia e University); Bhandari, Amit Kumar (Kalyani Institute of Applied Research, Training and Development)
    Abstract: Agricultural credit is one of the most crucial inputs in all agricultural development programmes. Access of rural credit has still remained scarce in India. Primary Agriculture Credit Societies (PACS) working at grass-root level, having direct contact with the rural people and meet their financial requirements. The problem of loan overdue is a serious concern in different regions of the country, as it affects the recycling of funds and loses its economic viability as a lending institution. The present study examines the recovery performance of rural credit given by PACS in six different regions of India namely Central, Northern, Southern, Eastern, North-East and Western. The result suggests that the performance of credit recovery has been low in north-eastern states and high in northern and southern states. Recovery performance of credit is directly proportional to non-agricultural loan to agricultural loan, trained-untrained staff ratio and average member per society and inversely related with proportion of government capital to working capital and real growth rates at constant price. To make all PACS viable and ensure adequate and timely flow of credit, appropriate policies are required from the Reserve Bank of India in collaboration with State Governments.
    Keywords: cooperative, credit, loan overdue, recovery, policy
    JEL: E61 F34 G21 Q13
    Date: 2014–06
  11. By: Michal Bernard Pietrzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland)
    Abstract: The paper focuses on the issue of the aggregation problem which is frequently discussed within spatial econometrics. Aggregation problem is one of two aspects of the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). The aggregation problem is connected with the volatility of the obtained results occurred when various compositions of territorial units for the same aggregation scale were applied. The objective of the present paper is considering the redefinition of aggregation problem and showing positive solution of the aggregation problem based on the empirical example of determining agricultural macroregions. In the article the aggregation problem was defined as a problem of establishment a particular composition of territorial units at a selected aggregation scale in a such a way that is remains in the quasi composition of regions within the undertaken research problem. The paper also presented the procedure for determining agricultural macroregions where the analysis of the spatial volatility of the agrarian structure and the current knowledge on the agriculture in Poland were applied. In addition, the paper considered the final areal interpretation problem connected with the incorrect determination of the area in relation to which final conclusions are drawn. The problem was presented based on the example of the establishment of the average concentration of the area of agricultural land in Poland with the use of the Gini index calculated for districts. The paper emphasised that ignoring the final areal interpretation problem in spatial analyses may lead to an apparent identification of the modifiable areal unit problem.
    Keywords: spatial econometrics, modifiable areal unit problem, scale problem, aggregation problem
    JEL: C01 C15 C21
    Date: 2014–01
  12. By: Paolo PROSPERI (Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs, INRA; Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM); Università degli Studi di Catania); Luri Peri (Università degli Studi di Catania)
    Abstract: According to the concept of sustainable development, available natural resources are limited and disproportionately exploited. The growing depletion of these resources is leading to intergenerational disparities, as it systematically deprives future generations of a standard of living even remotely comparable to the current one. Sustainability is an integrative and dynamic concept, composed of issues that have often been described as crossroads of interests and social initiatives, both economic and environmental. Being such a complex and multidimensional phenomenon, sustainability is thus very difficult to explore through traditional measurement approaches. The objective of this study is to define the research questions that subtend the concept of sustainability. In particular, the complexity of sustainability measurement in food security contexts and the approaches used for incorporating its economic, environmental and social facets will be analyzed.
    Keywords: sustainable development, metrology, food security
    Date: 2014
  13. By: Mailu, Stephen; Will, Margret; Mwanza, Rosemary; Nkanata, Kinyua; Mbugua, David
    Abstract: Using cross sectional data from all 47 Counties in Kenya, the presence of contract breaches between the producers and chain intermediary node is investigated. Most farmers do not engage in contracting and for those who do, many of these contracts are found to be informal. In addition, most of these contracts (whether formal or informal) were breached. However, some buyers appear to be associated with contract breaches. A distinct pattern emerges showing that larger milk producers are more likely to make formal contracts than small producers while the results also confirm that most of the contracts between farmers and individual consumers as well as traders and middlemen are informal and subject to contract breaches. Using a multiple correspondence analysis, these associations between contract breaches and farmer characteristics are explored. Results indicate that collective action institutions might encourage formalization of contracts while households that do not engage in some form of collective action engagements in most cases make informal contracts although both formal and informal contracts are equally subject to contract breaches. An examination of the underlying institutional, psychological and sociological drivers to contract breaches is recommended as such information can reveal how best to upgrade successful contract farming arrangements.
    Keywords: Multiple Correspondence Analysis, Contract Farming
    JEL: C14 C7 K00 Z13
    Date: 2014–01–07
  14. By: Maja Schlüter; Alessandro Tavoni; Simon Levin
    Abstract: Growing empirical evidence points to the importance of social norms for achieving sustainable use of common pool resources (CPR). Social norms can facilitate the cooperation and collective action needed to sustainable share a common resource. With global change, however, the social and environmental conditions under which cooperation has evolved and been maintained in the past may vary dramatically. Higher variability of resource availability and more frequent extreme events, for instance, will put additional pressure on cooperation, possibly triggering its collapse, with detrimental effects on the environment. In light of this, the potential impact of climate change on conflict has recently received considerable attention. Here we assess the robustness of norm-driven cooperation to changing resource availability in a stylised model of community harvesting from a shared resource. The model is a generalised representation of CPR extraction, which allows for social disapproval towards norm-violators. We use an agent-based model to assess the robustness of cooperative outcomes to variable resource flows. Our results indicate that both resource abundance and low resource variability can lead to its unsustainable use, while wither scarcity or high variability in the resource have the potential to stabilise cooperation. These findings provide insights into possible effects of global change on self-governance of the commons. They also indicate that there is no simple answer to the question whether global change has the potential to destabilise cooperation in natural resource use, and lead to environmental degradation and possible conflict.
    Date: 2014–01
  15. By: Desiderio Romero-Jordán (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos); Pablo del Río (Institute of Public Goods and Policies. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)); Cristina Peñasco (Institute of Public Goods and Policies. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC))
    Abstract: This paper analyses the determinants of household electricity demand with a panel data, partial adjustment model of Spanish regions in the 1998-2009 period. The results show that electricity demand responds positively and significantly to electricity demand in the previous year, income, temperature range, penetration of electric water heating in households and the number of heating and cooling degree days. It is significantly and negatively related to electricity prices, gas prices, penetration of electric heating in households and whether households have at least one member being 64 years or older. Price elasticities in the preferred model are -0.26 (short-term) and -0.37 (long-term). Income elasticities are 0.31 (short-term) and 0.43 (long-term). Several implications for electricity-efficiency policies are derived from the results of the analysis.
    Keywords: Electricity demand, residential sector, partial adjustment model
    JEL: Q41 Q43 Q55
    Date: 2014
  16. By: Orazio Attanasio; Britta Augsburg
    Abstract: In a recent paper, Anagol, Etang and Karlan (2013) consider the income generated by these owning a cow or a buffalo in two districts of Uttar Pradesh, India. The net profit generated ignoring labour costs, gives rise to a small positive rate of return. Once any reasonable estimate of labour costs is added to costs, the rate of return is a large negative number. The authors conclude that households holding this type of assets do not behave according to the tenets of capitalism. A variety of explanations, typically appealing to religious or cultural factors have been invoked for such a puzzling fact. In this note, we point to a simple explanation that is fully consistent with rational behaviour on the part of Indian farmers. In computing the return on cows and buffaloes, the authors used data from a single year. Cows are assets whose return varies through time. In drought years, when fodder is scarce and expensive, milk production is lower and profits are low. In non-drought years, when fodder is abundant and cheaper, milk production is higher and profits can be considerably higher. The return on cows and buffaloes, like that of many stocks traded on Wall Street, is positive in some years and negative in others. We report evidence from three years of data on the return on cows and buffaloes in the district of Anantapur and show that in one of the three years returns are very high, while in drought years they are similar to the figures obtained by Anagol, Etang and Karlan (2013).
    JEL: O1 O12 O53
    Date: 2014–07
  17. By: Ingmar Schumacher
    Abstract: The results in this paper show that a policy maker who ignores regional data and instead relies on aggregated integrated assessment models will strongly underestimate the carbon price and thus the required climate policy. Using a stylized theoretical model we show that, under the mild and widely-accepted assumptions of asymmetric climate change impacts and declining marginal utility, an Aggregation Dilemma may arise that dwarfs most other policy- relevant aspects in the climate change cost-benefit analysis. Estimates based on the RICE model (Nordhaus and Boyer 2000) suggest that aggregation leads to around 26% higher total world emissions than those from a regional model. The backstop energy use would be zero in aggregated versions of the model, while it is roughly 1.3% of Gross World Product in the regionally-disaggregated models. Though the policy recommendations from fully aggre- gated models like the DICE model are always used as a benchmark for policy making, the results here suggest that this should be done with the reservations raised by the Aggregation Dilemma in mind.
    Keywords: Aggregation Dilemma; aggregation; Integrated Assessment Models; climate policy.
    JEL: Q54 Q58
    Date: 2014–07–16
  18. By: Carola Kniebes; Christine Merk; Gert Pönitzsch; Katrin Rehdanz; Ulrich Schmidt
    Abstract: Climate engineering (CE) and carbon capture and storage sub-seabed (CCS-S) are currently controversially debated options to address climate change. Our paper provides empirical evidence on the public perception of two different CE measures, namely, stratospheric sulphate injection (SSI) and afforestation, as well as CCS-S. Using data from a novel large-scale survey, we analyse the determinants of acceptance of these measures in Germany. We also provide experimental evidence on how additional information on these measures changes the respondents’ acceptance. We show that the acceptance differs strongly between the three measures. Afforestation is strongly favoured over CCS-S and SSI. This ranking holds independent of the amount of information provided. For all three measures, we find that, on average, additional information decreases acceptance. However, the sign and the strength of the information effect strongly depend on personal characteristics, such as gender and risk attitude
    Keywords: Climate Engineering, Carbon Capture and Storage, Climate Change, Public Opinion, Survey
    JEL: Q50 Q54 C83 D19
    Date: 2014–07
  19. By: Margarita Gáfaro (Brown University); Ana Maria Ibáñez (Universidad de los Andes); Patricia Justino (Institute of Development Studies)
    Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to provide empirical evidence on the mechanisms that shape the relationship between violent conflict and collective action. Conflict dynamics in Colombia allow us to exploit rich variation in armed group presence and individual participation in local organizations. Our identification strategy is based on the construction of contiguous-pairs of rural communities that share common socio-economic characteristics but differ in armed group presence. This allows us to control for unobservable variables that may affect local participation and conflict dynamics simultaneously. The results show that the presence of armed groups increases overall participation in local organizations, with a particularly strong effect on political organizations. Contrary to existing results, we find that stronger individual participation may arise from coercion exercised by armed groups and not from a more vibrant civil society.
    Date: 2014–07
  20. By: Sergio Currarini; Carmen Marchiori; Alessandro Tavoni
    Abstract: Recent research in the field of network economics has shown how explicitly modelling the network structure of social and economic relations can provide significant theoretical insights, as well as account for previously unexplained empirical evidence. Despite their critical importance to many environmental problems, network structures and dynamics have been largely disregarded by the environmental economics literature. This paper aims to begin to fill this gap by analysing how networks can provide new insights for both theory and practice, and identifying several avenues for future research. The paper addresses questions pertaining to a wide range of issues, including the adoption and diffusion of green technologies, access to and distribution of natural resources, common-pool resource management and governance, and the stability of international environmental coalitions.
    Date: 2014–01
  21. By: Patricia Garcia-Duran (Facultat d'Economia i Empresa; Universitat de Barcelona (UB)); Montserrat Millet (Facultat d'Economia i Empresa; Universitat de Barcelona (UB))
    Abstract: There is an ongoing debate on which are the determinants of CAP reform. The economic environment has not been contemplated as a directdeterminant of CAP reform but its proxy, the budget, has not only been looked at as such but underlined as a key cause of CAP reform. This paper argues, however, that the budget does not affect the modus operandi of the CAP. It affects the quantity of support each farmer is going to get and sometimes even the timing of the reform, but not the form it is going to receive it. Other CAP determinants andinternational negotiations in particular, have an impact on the substance of CAP reform. This hypothesis is not contradicted by an analysis of CAP 2013 changes.
    Keywords: EU, crisis impact, CAP, policy reform.
    JEL: L98 N44 Q18
    Date: 2014
  22. By: Xavier Vollenweider
    Abstract: This article introduces a new methodology to estimate climate exposure at the household’s level with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as its building block. As the probability distribution of the SPEI is known, one can easily recover the marginal probability distribution of expected consumption. Furthermore, the approach is simple enough to accommodate quantile regressions and hence offer the opportunity to broaden the scope of the analysis to different categories of the population. I illustrate the methodology with a case study on Ethiopia. I find notably that while poor households in the most remote villages are almost as resilient to a 10-year return period drought as poor households living in the vicinity of a town (up to 20 km), the contrary is true for richer households: the ones living in remote parts of Ethiopia are much more at risk than their suburban counterparts.
    Date: 2014–05
  23. By: Cathleen Cimino (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Gary Clyde Hufbauer (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Horizontal drilling and fracking are transforming global energy production, consumption, and trade leading to a surge of domestic production in the United States. Free exports of liquefied natural gas, crude oil, and other energy products are an essential complement of US international economic policy, which has long advocated free trade in raw materials, unconstrained by export barriers or restrictions. The Obama White House should prod the Department of Energy, the Department of Commerce, the Federal Energy Commission, and other agencies to speed up their approvals of such exports. Short of lifting full restrictions on crude oil exports, the Department of Commerce should build on its recent exemptions for ultralight oil condensate and exempt light crude oil from the current export prohibitions with determination that sales to Europe are consistent with the US national interest.
    Date: 2014–07

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