New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2014‒07‒21
twenty papers chosen by

  1. The Future Global Food Situation and Its Financial Implications for US Agriculture: Is This Time Different? By Freshwater, David
  2. Demystifying the Role of Grain Assemblers in the Rural Maize Markets of Eastern and Southern Africa By Sitko, Nicholas; Jayne, T.S.
  3. A spatially explicit model to analyse the regional supply of ligno-cellulosic biomass By Laure Bamière
  4. Food Crop Marketing and Agricultural Productivity in a High Price Environment: Evidence and Implications for Mozambique By Benfica, Rui; Boughton, Duncan; Mouzinho, Bordalo; Uaiene, Rafael
  5. A review of global scenario exercises for food security analysis: Assumptions and results FOODSECURE working paper no. 2 By Michiel van Dijk
  6. Consumers’ Use of Nutrition Information When Eating Out By Gregory, Christian; Rahkovsky, Ilya; Anekwe, Tobenna
  7. A review of global food security scenario and assessment studies: results, gaps and research priorities. FOODSECURE working paper no. 20 By Michiel van Dijk; G. Meijerink
  8. The Effects of Phytosanitary Regulations on U.S. Imports of Fresh Fruits and Vegetables By Ferrier, Peyton
  10. The Effects of Domestic Rice Market Interventions Outside Business-As-Usual Conditions For Imported Rice Prices By M.J. Mariano; J.A. Giesecke; N.H. Tran
  11. Extending the GTAP Data Base and Model to Cover Domestic Support Issues using the EU as Example By Urban, Kirsten; Hans Grinsted Jensen; Martina Brockmeier
  12. The Impact of Rainfall on Rice Output in Indonesia By David I. Levine; Dean Yang
  13. Does living close to a vineyard increase the willingness-to-pay for organic and local wine? By Jean-Sauveur Ay; Raja Chakir; Stephan Marette
  14. Reflections on the Foundations of Development Policy Analysis By James Roumasset
  15. Consumers’ Preferences for “Bicycle Poultry” in Benin: Implications for the Design of Breeding Schemes By Epiphane Sodjinou; Arne Henningsen; Delphin O. Koudande; Gauthier Biaou; Guy Apollinaire Mensah
  16. The effects of scale, space and time on the predictive accuracy of land use models By Jean-Sauveur Ay; Raja Chakir; Julie Le Gallo
  17. Atmospheric Pollution in Rapidly Growing Urban Centers: Spatial Policies and Land Use Patterns By Efthymia Kyriakopoulou; Anastasios Xepapadeas
  18. Price and Income Elasticities in LAC Countries: The Importance of Domestic Production By Carla Canelas; François Gardes; Silvia Salazar
  19. Global Warming, Technological Change and Trade in Carbon Energy: Challenge or Threat? By Gunter Stephan; Georg Müller-Fürstenberger
  20. The Bangladeshi Agarwood Industry: Development Barriers and a Potential Way Forward By Md. Joynal Abdin

  1. By: Freshwater, David
    Abstract: Farmland values have increased rapidly over the last decade in response to high incomes for crop farmers and inordinately low interest rates. Farmers have responded to these conditions by bidding up the price of good cropland. In addition, the long period of increasing land values, since the last farm financial crisis in the 1980s, has generated interest by outside investors who see farmland as a safe haven that offers a relatively high annual rate of appreciation. The result is a period of high demand for an essentially fixed supply. The last time this situation occurred was in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and it was followed by a major downward revaluation of farmland values when interest rates spiked and demand stagnated. The paper suggests that a repeat of these events is likely this time as well. Even though farmers do not appear vulnerable to a “balance sheet crisis” as they were in the 1980s, the history of American agriculture is cycles of boom and bust. In addition, there is some reason to believe that changes in the drivers of production , specifically the importance of proprietary seed and pesticide technologies are shifting economic rents away from landowners toward input suppliers.
    Keywords: farm financial crisis, farmland prices, farm income, farm input prices, Farm Credit System, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Land Economics/Use, Q14, Q18, Q16, Q15,
    Date: 2013–11–04
  2. By: Sitko, Nicholas; Jayne, T.S.
    Abstract: Two decades after initiating sweeping market reforms in their agricultural sectors, governments across Sub-Saharan Africa continue to maintain an active role in staple food markets. At the heart of this highly interventionist approach to food market development is a persistent and widespread distrust of private sector actors’ participation in food markets. Of all the private sector actors involved in African cereal markets, none has been more maligned or misunderstood than the private traders who assemble grain at the village-level or assembly traders as we refer to them in this paper.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2014–06
  3. By: Laure Bamière
    Abstract: Within an overall project to assess the competitiveness and environmental impacts of the production of bioenergy from lignocellulosic biomass, we set out in this article to investigate facility location, land allocation, biomass supply costs, and some environmental impacts in relation to the demand for lignocellulosic feedstock at the regional (Nuts 2) level. For that purpose we developed a spatially-explicit regional supply model with a county sub-level to deal with the case of agricultural and forest ligno-cellulosic biomass. It accounts for land-use competition, transportation costs and the optimal location of bioenergy facilities as well as the competition between biomass sources and between their potential uses. As an illustration, the model is applied to the case of the French Champagne-Ardenne region. We generated the first lignocellulosic biomass supply curves for France and performed a sensitivity analysis to the food crops price context. We show that dedicated crop cultivation can increase environmental pressure on the local level, due to direct and indirect land-use substitution. Our results also show that three well-accepted claims about the production and supply of lingo-cellulosic biomass in France do not hold true countrywide. First, Miscanthus is not the most profitable dedicated crop, although it is the most frequent in France today. Second, perennial lignocellulosic crops are at first grown on the most fertile and profitable lands and not on marginal land, therefore coming into competition with food crops. Finally, we show that forest remnants are not the providential biomass source they are expected to be and that energy and non-energy uses compete for wood that is already harvested.
    Keywords: lignocellulosic biomass, bioenergy, supply curves, spatial modelling, mathematical programming, facility location
    JEL: Q12 Q15 Q16 Q42
    Date: 2014–07–04
  4. By: Benfica, Rui; Boughton, Duncan; Mouzinho, Bordalo; Uaiene, Rafael
    Abstract: This paper assesses the relationship between agricultural productivity and market participation and performance following an increase in market prices in Mozambique. We use panel data before and after the change in price regime to identify the relative importance of market access/participation versus household and farm-level factors in explaining productivity differences. Conversely, we look at the relative importance of productivity investments and outcomes versus marketing investments in explaining household market performance. We find that between 2008, before the price increases, and 2011, there were increases in market participation rates and in the intensity of participation. Modest increases are also found in terms of productivity for all crop groups.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Marketing, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2014–05
  5. By: Michiel van Dijk
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to review the scenario literature with a particular focus on the implications for global food security. In total nine major global scenario studies, published between 2000 and 2012, are covered. Four out of the nine studies focus explicitly on agriculture and the food system. Four others have a broader or different perspective (e.g. climate change, environment and ecosystems) but nonetheless include elements that are relevant for food security analysis. This study finds that all of the scenarios only deal with two of the four dimensions of food security: food availability and food accessibility, while food utilisation and stability are hardly covered. It is argued that the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are currently being developed as input to the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, might be a relevant starting point for new global scenarios for the analysis of food security issues.
    JEL: C3
  6. By: Gregory, Christian; Rahkovsky, Ilya; Anekwe, Tobenna
    Abstract: Until recently, many restaurants and fast-food places did not offer nutrition information at the point of purchase. This is expected to change because the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act requires that nutrition information be posted in many of these venues. Once the law is fully implemented, it will be important to understand how it has affected consumer behavior. To establish a baseline against which to measure changes in the use of onsite nutrition information about food away from home (FAFH), we examine the demographic characteristics and dietary behaviors of U.S. consumers of FAFH before passage of the law, based on responses to the 2007-08 and 2009-10 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). In particular, we examine the characteristics of consumers who use nutrition information and of those who express interest in using the information when they eat out in the future.
    Keywords: Food away from home, diet quality, nutrition, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, Marketing,
    Date: 2014–06
  7. By: Michiel van Dijk; G. Meijerink
    Abstract: The food price crisis in 2007/2008 created a sense of urgency to reconsider the challenge of how to feed an increasing population. A number of studies have addressed the demand for and supply of food in the long run using scenario analysis, often combined with model simulations. We compare twelve food security scenario studies that have been published between 2000 and present by analysing the assumptions about key drivers of food security as well as the range in key food security outcomes. We find that most scenarios can be classified using a set of scenario families with comparable assumptions and outcomes. That said, the majority of the scenarios only deal with two of the four dimensions of food security: food availability and food accessibility, largely ignoring food utilisation and stability. We also find that important drivers such as bio-energy, shift in diets and climate change are only partly dealt with while new drivers and determinants such as food waste and alternative sources of food supply are not yet addressed.
    JEL: C6
  8. By: Ferrier, Peyton
    Abstract: Since the late 1980s, multilateral and bilateral trade agreements have reduced tariff rates and worked to restrain the arbitrary use of nontariff measures, including sanitary and phytosanitary regulations. U.S. imports of fruits and vegetables have risen steadily during this period as more pathways (specific country-commodity combinations) for legal importation to the United States have gained approval, regulations for gaining import access have been streamlined, and treatment options for phytosanitary issues have been expanded. This report compares 2011 tariff rates with phytosanitary treatments for 29 fruits and vegetables. In general, both tariffs and nontariff phytosanitary measures are relatively small across high-volume import pathways, and there is little evidence to suggest that phytosanitary regulations have a large effect on trade.
    Keywords: phytosanitary, tariffs, nontariff measures, fruits and vegetables, imports, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014–07
  9. By: Gopakumar K.U. (Sri Sathya Sai Institute of Higher Learning); V. Pandit (Sri Sathya Sai Institute of Higher Learning)
    Abstract: Rapid rise in the price of food grains and their continued upsurge is a matter of concern for not only the government and policy makers but also for all concerned with social welfare. This is particularly so because increased prices of basic food item cause great distress to the poor sections of the society who have to spend a large part of their income on food. Quite naturally, understanding the causes of inflation is of high priority for framing the right policy to tackle the problem needs a clear understanding of the factors that led to the price rise. The current study tries to examine how prices get determined in Indian food grains market. This requires a slightly different approach from the conventional demand and supply framework as government intervenes in the market through open market operations. To this end, we propose a structural model, explaining the behavior of food grain prices in the India since 1980-81 through 2011-12 incorporating role of government interventions. Our results confirm that there is strong impact of demand as well as supply side factors. However, when it comes to controlling of inflation, demand side management turn out to be a highly significant. Under supply side management, increased capital stock is found to be effective, as it significantly boosts production and thereby reducing prices and adding to procurement. Whereas government intervention play a stabilizing role.
    Keywords: Food grain output, income, money supply, procurement, support prices, capital stock.
    JEL: E31 Q11 Q18
    Date: 2014–07
  10. By: M.J. Mariano; J.A. Giesecke; N.H. Tran
    Abstract: The Philippine government intervenes in the domestic rice market through the imposition of import tariffs and the provision of producer and consumer subsidies. While policy makers are aware that these programs come with allocative efficiency costs, they justify the programs on the grounds that they insulate the domestic economy from unexpected price spikes in the international rice market. An interesting matter for policy evaluation is to quantify the insulation benefit that the programs provide in circumstances of sudden severe import price spikes. To examine this question, we undertake a dynamic CGE simulation in which the Philippines is subject to an external rice price shock. We find that the insulation benefit of the support programs under a 2008-like event is worth approximately 0.10 per cent of real consumption. However the cost of insuring against these price spikes is significant. We estimate the annual cost of the rice market interventions at approximately 0.40 per cent of real consumption.
    Keywords: Food security, food subsidies, rice tariff, rice market, price insulation
    JEL: C68 Q18 H12 H21
    Date: 2014–06
  11. By: Urban, Kirsten; Hans Grinsted Jensen; Martina Brockmeier
    Abstract: The EU Single Farm Payment (SFP) is currently distributed in proportion to primary factor shares in version 8 of the GTAP database. In this paper, we investigate whether this way of modeling the EU SFP makes a difference in analyzing agricultural policy reforms. To do so, we create alternative versions of the GTAP database to compare the effects with the default setting in GTAP. Employing OECD data, along with the GTAP framework, we vary the assumptions about the allocation of the SFP. In the process, we demonstrate how to alter and update the GTAP database to implement domestic support of OECD PSE tables. We provide a detailed overview supplemented with assumptions of payment allocation, shock calculations and in particular, the Altertax procedure to update value flows and price equations extended in the GTAP model. Subsequently, we illustrate the impact of those assumptions by simulating a 100% removal of the SFP using the deviating versions of GTAP database. This sensitivity analysis reveals strong differences in results, but particularly in production responses of food and agricultural sectors that decrease with an increasing degree of decoupling. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the effect on welfare and the trade balance decreases with an increasing degree of decoupling. This experiment shows that the allocation of the SFP can have strong impacts on simulation results.
    Date: 2014
  12. By: David I. Levine; Dean Yang
    Abstract: We estimate the impact of weather variation on agricultural output in Indonesia by examining the impact of local rainfall shocks on rice output at the district level. Our analysis makes use of local meteorological data on rainfall in combination with government administrative data on district-level rice output in the 1990s. We find that deviations from mean local rainfall are positively associated with district-level rice output. 10% higher rainfall leads metric tons of rice output to be 0.4% higher on average. The impact of rainfall on rice output occurs contemporaneously (in the same calendar year), rather than with a lag. These results suggest that researchers should be justified in interpreting higher rainfall as a positive contemporaneous shock to local economic conditions in Indonesia.
    JEL: O13
    Date: 2014–07
  13. By: Jean-Sauveur Ay; Raja Chakir; Stephan Marette
    Abstract: This paper investigates how the residents of a French wine-producing region value the attributes of wine. We elicit the willingness-to-pay for organic/non-organic and local/nonlocal wines when providing different informations about the impacts of agricultural practices. Organic and local premiums are estimated using robust M-regressions with clustered standard errors. The analysis shows that there is a significant organic premium associated with local and non-local wines, increasing with information level and decreasing with distance between participants’ dwellings and vineyards. We also ran some policy simulations to compare the welfare effects of regulatory instruments aimed at internalizing the attributes valued by consumers in possession of information.
    Keywords: Organic premium, local premium, experimental economics, wine consumption
    JEL: Q15 C90 R32 L66
    Date: 2014–07–10
  14. By: James Roumasset (University of Hawai‘i at Manoa & University of Hawai’i Economic Research Organization)
    Abstract: There is a persistent tendency in economic development circles to jump to policy conclusions without entertaining more fundamental explanations of empirical patterns. After reviewing several examples in the field of agricultural development, I provide an alternative paradigm for understanding behavior and organization. Despite the increased sophistication and vast access to data, modern theories and empirical methods have yet to focus adequately on developing fundamental methods for advancing policy analysis through the nature, causes and consequences paradigm. This assessment points to promising avenues for future research. Two such areas singled out for further attention are black hole economics and the coevolution of specialization and economic development.
    Keywords: Farmer behavior, agricultural organization, development policy, new institutional economics, specialization, black-hole economics
    JEL: O12 O13 B41 B52
    Date: 2014–07
  15. By: Epiphane Sodjinou (Institut National des Recherches Agricoles du Bénin); Arne Henningsen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Delphin O. Koudande (Institut National des Recherches Agricoles du Bénin); Gauthier Biaou (Faculté des Sciences Agronomiques, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, République du Bénin); Guy Apollinaire Mensah (Institut National des Recherches Agricoles du Bénin)
    Abstract: Village poultry, also termed "bicycle poultry," is produced in scavenging farming systems and is a chewy meat with a low fat content, and constitutes an important source of meat in many African countries. This study investigates consumers’ preferences regarding the physical traits of these birds (notably chickens, ducks and guinea fowl) in the Republic of Benin. For this purpose, we applied the hedonic price method on field data collected from retailers in four urban and five rural markets. We found that meatier drake and meatier guinea fowl with white plumage are preferred by consumers who are willing to pay a premium for these types of birds. The factors which significantly influence the price of chicken are the breed of the bird, the plumage color, the meatiness and the age of the bird. Consumers are willing to pay a price premium for meatier birds of traditional breeds with white plumage color and aged between six and twelve months. Thus, efforts to improve local breeds should stress these preferred traits.
    Keywords: Village poultry, consumer preferences, willingness to pay, breeding traits, the Republic of Benin
    JEL: D12 Q13 Q11
    Date: 2014–06
  16. By: Jean-Sauveur Ay; Raja Chakir; Julie Le Gallo
    Abstract: The econometric literature about modeling land use choices is highly heterogeneous with respect to the scale of the data, and to the structure of the models in terms of the effects of space and time. This paper proposes a joint evaluation of each of these three elements by estimating a broad spectrum of individual and aggregate, spatial and aspatial, short and long run econometric models on the same detailed French dataset. Considering four land use classes (arable crops, pasture, forest, and urban), all the models are compared in terms of both in- and out-of-sample predictive accuracy. We argue that the aggregate scale allows to model more effectively the effect of space by using spatial econometric models. We show that modeling spatial autocorrelation allow to have very accurate predictions which can even outperform individual models when the appropriate predictors are used. We also found some strong interactions between the effects of scale, space and time which can be of major interest for applied researchers.
    Keywords: Land use models, spatial econometrics, predictive accuracy, aggregate and individual data
    JEL: Q15 Q24 R1 C21
    Date: 2014–07–04
  17. By: Efthymia Kyriakopoulou; Anastasios Xepapadeas
    Abstract: We study the optimal and equilibrium distribution of industrial and residential land in a given region. The trade-off between the agglomeration and dispersion forces, in the form of pollution from stationary forces, production externalities, and commuting costs, determines the emergence of industrial and residential clusters across space. In this context, we define two kinds of spatial policies that can be used in order to close the gap between optimal and market allocations. More specifically, we show that the joint implementation of a site-specific environmental tax and a site-specific labor subsidy can reproduce the optimum as an equilibrium outcome. The methodological approach followed in this paper allows for endogenous determination of land use patterns and is shown to provide more precise results compared to previous studies.
    Keywords: Spatial policies, agglomeration, land use, atmospheric pollution, environmental tax, labor subsidy.
    JEL: R14 R38 H23
    Date: 2014–07–06
  18. By: Carla Canelas (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne); François Gardes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Silvia Salazar (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: The inclusion of time in the household domestic production function allows to calculate full prices that are in turn used to estimate consistent monetary and time elasticities on micro cross-sectional data. This article provides elasticity estimates for different commodity groups in absence of observable price data, solving the persistent problem of price data availability in most developing countries. The estimated price elasticities perform well compared to other methods and can be computed for different sub-populations, which is important for policy design and the calibration of simulation models.
    Keywords: Demand elasticities; domestic production; time-use
    Date: 2014–05
  19. By: Gunter Stephan; Georg Müller-Fürstenberger
    Abstract: Is it possible to combat global climate change through North-to-South technology transfer even without a global climate treaty? Or do carbon leakage and the rebound effect imply that it is possible to take advantage of technological improvements under the umbrella of a global arrangement only? For answering these questions two possible states of the world are discussed: one, where more energy efficient technologies are transferred unconditionally from the North to the South, and where regions do not cooperate in the solution of the global climate problem but unilaterally decide on climate policies and technology transfers; one, where the North-to-South technology transfer is tied to the requirement that the South in some way contributes to the solution of the global climate problem. Rebound and leakage effects hinder a sustainable and welfare improving solution of the climate problem.
    Keywords: global warming, climate change, technological change, technology transfer, trade in carbon energy, Post-Kyoto-policy regimes
    JEL: C68 D58 F18 Q56 Q54
    Date: 2014
  20. By: Md. Joynal Abdin (SME Foundation, Bangladesh)
    Abstract: Agarwood (which has various names around the Asia and Pacific region) is one of the most expensive non-timber wood products of the world. Bangladesh is producing three major products namely agar-wood, agar-oil and agar dust. It has many uses in the cosmetics (especially perfume) and medicine sectors. Agarwood has traditional, religious moreover cultural uses in different parts of the world. In addition to various Asian countries, agarwood has a long history in Bangladesh, especially in Moulvibazar and nearby districts. However, a few constraints are creating hurdles for a flourishing agarwood sector in Bangladesh. This paper provides first some background on the agarwood sector in Bangladesh and concentrates then on identifying development barriers of the agarwood sector in Bangladesh. Based on the identified development barriers, it then suggests a few recommendations. Proper regulatory support from the government could play a vital role to make it one of the major foreign currency earning sectors for Bangladesh.
    Keywords: agarwood, perfume, medicine, culture, Bangladesh
    Date: 2014–06

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