nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2014‒05‒09
23 papers chosen by
Angelo Zago
University of Verona

  1. Co-movement of major commodity price returns : time-series assessment By de Nicola, Francesca; De Pace, Pierangelo; Hernandez, Manuel A.
  2. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: Evidence from China By Chen, Shuai; Chen, Xiaoguang; Xu, Jintao
  3. How flexible repayment schedules affect credit risk in agricultural microfinance By Weber, Ron; Mußhoff, Oliver; Petrick, Martin
  4. The more the better? How collateral levels affect credit risk in agricultural microfinance By Müller, Kirsten; Musshoff, Oliver; Weber, Ron
  5. Can Grain Subsidies Impede Rural–urban Migration in Hinterland China? Evidence from Field Surveys By Lei Meng
  6. The Impact of Non-tariff Measures on Agro-food Export between MENA Countries and the EU By Serhat Asci; Ali Koç; Sukru Erdem
  7. Alternative Agricultural Price Distortions for CGE Analysis, 2007 and 2011 By Jensen, Hans Grinsted; Kym Anderson
  8. A comparison of the global warming effects of wood fuels and fossil fuels taking albedo into account By Bjart Holtsmark
  9. CO2-Emissions and Economic Growth - A bounds-testing cointegration analysis for German industries By Parlow, Anton; von Hauff, Michael
  10. The Effects of Remittances on Poverty and Inequality: Evidence from Rural Southern Morocco By Jamal BOUOIYOUR; Amal MIFTAH
  11. Calculations of gaseous and particulate emissions from German agriculture 1990 - 2012: Report on methods and data (RMD) Submission 2014 By Haenel, Hans-Dieter; Rösemann, Claus; Dämmgen, Ulrich; Poddey, Eike; Freibauer, Annette; Wulf, Sebastian; Eurich-Menden, Brigitte; Döhler, Helmut; Schreiner, Carsten; Bauer, Beate; Osterburg, Bernhard
  12. Supra-Regional vs. Regional Regulators in the Water Pollution Mitigation: Optimal Exemption Policies. By François DESTANDAU; Anne ROZAN; Sandrine SPAETER
  13. Working Paper 200 - Analysis of Household Expenditures and the Impact of Remittances using a Latent Class Model: the Case of Burkina Faso By Nadège Désirée Yaméogo
  14. The price is not always right : on the impacts of (commodity) prices on households (and countries) By Lederman, Daniel; Porto, Guido
  15. Aggregate and Household Demand for Money: Evidence from Public Opinion Survey on Household Financial Assets and Liabilities By Hiroshi Fujiki; Cheng Hsiao
  16. How does space affect the allocation of the EU rural development policy's expenditure? An econometric assessment By Beatrice CAMAIONI; Roberto ESPOSTI; Francesco PAGLIACCI; Franco SOTTE
  17. The Strategic Role of Services Provided For on Areas Belonging to The Public Domain. Beach Concessions in EU Mediterranean Member States: a Case Study By Andrea Usai
  18. The 1993 EITC Expansion and Low-Skilled Single Mothers’Welfare Use Decision By Hau Chyi
  19. Are Financial and Social Efficiency Mutually Exclusive? A Case Study of Vietnamese Microfinance Institutions By Maxime Lebovics; Niels Hermes; Marek Hudon
  20. Water management in New Zealand : A road map for understanding water value By Kaye-Blake, Bill; Schilling, Chris; Nixon, Chris; Destremau, Killian
  21. Gender and public goods provision in Tamil Nadu's village governments By Gajwani, Kiran; Zhang, Xiaobo
  22. Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change By Cooke, Roger M.
  23. Impact Fees and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Thirty-five Chinese Cities By Xiaofang Dong; Shihe Fu; Yufei Yuan

  1. By: de Nicola, Francesca; De Pace, Pierangelo; Hernandez, Manuel A.
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural and food commodities based on monthly data between 1970 and 2013. A uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure are used to study the extent and the time-evolution of unconditional and conditional correlations. The results indicate that (i) the price returns of energy and agricultural commodities are highly correlated; (ii) the overall level of co-movement among commodities increased in recent years, especially between energy and agricultural commodities and in particular in the cases of maize and soybean oil, which are important inputs in the production of biofuels; and (iii) particularly after 2007, stock market volatility is positively associated with the co-movement of price returns across markets.
    Keywords: Crops and Crop Management Systems,Energy Production and Transportation,Markets and Market Access,Emerging Markets,Food&Beverage Industry
    Date: 2014–04–01
  2. By: Chen, Shuai; Chen, Xiaoguang; Xu, Jintao (Resources for the Future)
    Abstract: We estimate the link between corn and soybean yields and weather in China, while controlling for other variables that could affect crop yields, such as socioeconomic and climate adaptation variables. We find that: (i) there are nonlinear and asymmetric relationships between corn and soybean yields and weather variables; (ii) expansion of corn and soybean production to land types not previously used for these two crops had detrimental effects on average yields for both crops; (iii) climate change led to a net economic loss of about $200 million to China’s corn and soybean sectors in the past decade; (iv) corn and soybean yields are projected to decline by 4-14% and 8-21% by 2100.
    Keywords: climate, China, corn, soybean, yields, land
    JEL: Q54 Q10
    Date: 2014–04–18
  3. By: Weber, Ron; Mußhoff, Oliver; Petrick, Martin
    Abstract: Using a unique dataset of a commercial microfinance institution in Madagascar, this paper investigates how the provision of microfinance loans with (in)flexible repayment schedules affects loan delinquencies of agricultural borrowers. Flexible repayment schedules allow a redistribution of principal payments during periods with low agricultural returns to periods when agricultural returns are high. We develop a theoretical framework and apply and estimate an econometric model for the loan repayment behavior of agricultural microborrowers with seasonal and non-seasonal production types. Our results reveal that delinquencies of non-seasonal farmers and seasonal farmers with inflexible repayment schedules are not significantly different from those of non-farmers. Furthermore, we find that seasonal farmers with flexible repayment schedules show significantly higher delinquencies than non-farmers in low delinquency categories, but we also find that this effect disappears in the highest delinquency category. --
    Keywords: Agricultural Credit,Borrowing,Financial Risk,Loan Repayment,Microfinance,Seasonality
    JEL: G21 G32 Q14
    Date: 2014
  4. By: Müller, Kirsten; Musshoff, Oliver; Weber, Ron
    Abstract: Financial institutions still neglect to address agricultural clients. The main reasons for that are their perception that farmers bear higher risks than non-farmers and that their loan products are inadequate to accommodate the needs of agricultural entrepreneurs. As a result, many farmers still lack access to external finance. The aim of this paper is to investigate determinants of credit risk for agricultural loans disbursed by a Microfinance Institution (MFI) in Azerbaijan. In this context special attention is paid to repayment flexibility and the role of collaterals. MFIs are among the first financial institutions recently focusing on farmers with new loan products. We find that farmers are less risky than non-farmers, which is surprising because the opposite is widely believed. We furthermore find that the level of collateral has a negative influence on credit risk. Beyond that, we find that repayment flexibility increases credit risk. --
    Keywords: microfinance,collaterals,Tobit Model,credit risk,small-scale farmer
    JEL: Q12 Q14
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Lei Meng
    Abstract: In this paper I examine if China's grain subsidy program keeps farmers from engaging in migratory work using self-collected panel rural household survey data from Zhijiang, Hubei province. Making use of Zhijiang's unique geographical features, I construct a treatment and a control group and use a difference-in-differences methodology to identify the subsidy effect on migration. My results suggest that the grain subsidy policy does keep farmers at the rural origin.
    Keywords: Migration, Agricultural subsidy, Rural China
    JEL: J61 R23
    Date: 2013–10–14
  6. By: Serhat Asci; Ali Koç; Sukru Erdem
    Date: 2014–03
  7. By: Jensen, Hans Grinsted; Kym Anderson
    Abstract: A recent World Bank research project has generated an annual time series of distortions to agricultural incentives over the past half century for 82 countries, the majority of which are low-and middle-income countries. In this memorandum, the current GTAP version 8 Data Base may be modified to incorporate this dataset, using an Altertax simulation. The files required for this Altertax simulation, including parameter files and shock files are generated by the file which will accommodate any level of aggregation of the GTAP database. In this memorandum the data files required to modify the GTAP v8.1 database can be downloaded. Data required to modify the GTAP v9 database will be available at a later date when v9 is released.
    Date: 2014
  8. By: Bjart Holtsmark (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Traditionally, wood fuels, like other bioenergy sources, have been considered carbon neutral because the amount of CO2 released can be offset by CO2 sequestration due to the regrowth of the biomass. Thus, until recently, most studies assigned a global warming potential (GWP) of zero to CO2 generated by the combustion of biomass (biogenic CO2). Moreover, emissions of biogenic CO2 are usually not included in carbon tax and emissions trading schemes. However, there is now increasing awareness of the inadequacy of this way of treating bioenergy, especially bioenergy from boreal forests. Holtsmark (2014) recently quantified the GWP of biogenic CO2 from slow-growing forests (GWPbio), finding it to be significantly higher than the GWP of fossil CO2 when a 100-year time horizon was applied. Hence, the climate impact seems to be even higher for the combustion of slow-growing biomass than for the combustion of fossil carbon in a 100-year timeframe. The present study extends the analysis of Holtsmark (2014) in three ways. First, it includes the cooling effects of increased surface reflectivity after harvest (albedo). Second, it includes a comparison with the potential warming impact of fossil fuels, taking the CO2 emissions per unit of energy produced into account. Third, the study links the literature estimating GWPbio and the literature dealing with the carbon debt, and model simulations estimating the payback time of the carbon debt are presented. The conclusion is that, also after these extensions of the analysis, bioenergy from slow-growing forests usually has a larger climate impact in a 100-year timeframe than fossil oil and gas. Whether bioenergy performs better or worse than coal depends on a number of conditions.
    Keywords: Bioenergy; Boreal forests; Climate change; Carbon; Albedo; Fossil fuels
    JEL: Q23 Q32 Q42
    Date: 2014–04
  9. By: Parlow, Anton; von Hauff, Michael
    Abstract: We model pollution as an input in the production process and test the long-run relationship between pollution and growth at the industry level. Most empirical studies, especially based on the environmental Kuznets curve, use highly aggregated data. Arguably, the results found may not be generalized for all industries in a given country. Using CO-2 emissions and GDP data for 47 industries observed over the period 1995-2010, we find a long-run relationship between pollution and growth only for a few German industries, e.g. the energy-generating-, the aviation- and agricultural industry. For these industries CO-2 emissions have a negative effect on growth, e.g. through environmental taxes and pollution allowances.
    Keywords: Growth, GDP, CO2 Emissions, Pollution, Bounds-testing
    JEL: Q0 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2014–04–30
  10. By: Jamal BOUOIYOUR; Amal MIFTAH
    Abstract: The Effects of Remittances on Poverty and Inequality: Evidence from Rural Southern Morocco
    Date: 2014–05
  11. By: Haenel, Hans-Dieter; Rösemann, Claus; Dämmgen, Ulrich; Poddey, Eike; Freibauer, Annette; Wulf, Sebastian; Eurich-Menden, Brigitte; Döhler, Helmut; Schreiner, Carsten; Bauer, Beate; Osterburg, Bernhard
    Abstract: The report at hand (including a comprehensive annex of data) serves as additional document to the National Inventory Report (NIR) on the German green house gas emissions and the Informative Inventory Report (IIR) on the German emissions of air pollutants (especially ammonia). The report documents the calculation methods used in the German agricultural inventory model GAS-EM as well as input data, emission results and uncertainties of the emission reporting submission 2014 for the years 1990 - 2012. In this context the sector Agriculture comprises the emissions from animal husbandry and the use of agricultural soils. As required by the guidelines, emissions from activities preceding agriculture, from the use of energy and from land use change are reported elsewhere in the national inventories. The calculation methods are based in principle on international guidelines for emission reporting and have been continuingly improved during the past years. This concerns especially the calculation of energy requirements, feeding and the N balance of the most important animal categories. In addition, technical mitigation measures such as air scrubbing and digestion of slurry have been taken into account. [...] -- Der vorliegende Berichtsband einschließlich des umfangreichen Datenanhangs dient als Begleitdokument zum National Inventory Report (NIR) über die deutschen Treibhausgas-Emissionen und zum Informative Inventory Report (IIR), über die deutschen Schadstoffemissionen (insbesondere Ammoniak). Er dokumentiert die im deutschen landwirtschaftlichem Inventarmodell GASEM integrierten Berechnungsverfahren sowie die Eingangsdaten, Emissionsergebnisse und Unsicherheiten der Berichterstattung 2014 für die Jahre 1990 bis 2012. Der Bereich Landwirtschaft umfasst dabei die Emissionen aus der Tierhaltung und der Nutzung landwirtschaftlicher Böden. Emissionen aus dem Vorleistungsbereich, aus der Nutzung von Energie sowie Landnutzungsänderungen werden den Regelwerken entsprechend an anderer Stelle in den nationalen Inventaren berichtet. Die Berechnungsverfahren beruhen in erster Linie auf internationalen Regelwerken zur Emissionsberichterstattung und wurden in den vergangenen Jahren beständig weiterentwickelt. Dies betrifft im Wesentlichen die Berechnung des Energiebedarfs, der Fütterung und der tierischen N-Bilanz bei den wichtigen Tierkategorien. Zusätzlich wurden technische Minderungsmaßnahmen wie Abluftreinigung und Güllevergärung berücksichtigt. [...]
    Date: 2014
  12. By: François DESTANDAU; Anne ROZAN; Sandrine SPAETER
    Abstract: Through the Water Framework Directive, the European Commission urges its Mem- ber states to reach a level of "good status" of water for 2015. This level can be different from the regional first-best. Neither the supra-regional regulator (European Commission) nor the regional regulator (Member State) knows perfectly this firstbest. Each region can estimate it thanks to a cost-benefit analysis (CBA). If the estimated first-best is lower than the "good status" level, the region can ask to be exempted from reaching the latter. In this paper, we show that regional regulators do not always invest largely in CBA in optimum, although under-investment increases the probability of being urged to reach the highest level of water quality. Besides, the optimal exemption policy announced by the supra-regional regulator, which depends on the CBA's investment, shall also depend on the local risk preferences and environmental vulnerability. If the exemption policy is uniform across the regions, we obtain that more risk averse and/or more environmentally vulnerable populations invest less in the CBA, contrary to the first intuition. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Supra-Regional Regulator, Regional Regulators, Exemption Policy, Imperfect Estimation, Local Préférences.
    JEL: D8 Q25 Q28
    Date: 2014
  13. By: Nadège Désirée Yaméogo
    Abstract: This paper applies a latent classes model to assess the impact of international remittances on households’ expenditures using 2010 cross-sectional data from Burkina Faso. Household expenditures are modeled using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). With the latent class model, these expenditure equations are estimated simultaneously for both groups of households as well as factors that explain the probability of being in one group or another. The latent class model is used to estimate eight di.erent expenditure equations: food, education, healthcare, durable goods, housing, fuel for cooking, communication (phone), and transportation. Results suggest that the household size, schooling, the age of the head of the household, farmer heads, female heads, access to electricity, living in urban areas, and international remittances contribute to explain household expenditure behavior. Factors that contribute to increase the household chance to live below the poverty line include: household size, if the household head is a farmer, a female, or is aged, or living in a province other than Kadiogo. Factors that increase the household chance of living above the poverty line are: the amount of remittances received, if the head of the household is educated, is Muslim, if the household has access to electricity or public water pump, or if the household lives in the province of Kadiogo. Results also suggested that all the consumption items are necessary goods for households living below the poverty line, and only two items (durable goods and housing) are luxury goods for those living above that line.
    Date: 2014–04–29
  14. By: Lederman, Daniel; Porto, Guido
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the impact of once-and-for-all changes in commodity prices and other prices on household welfare. It begins with a collection of stylized facts related to commodities based on household survey data from Latin America and Africa. The data uncover strong commodity dependence in both continents: households typically allocate a large fraction of their budget to commodities and they often depend on commodities to earn their income. This income and expenditure dependency suggests sizable impacts and adjustments following commodity-price shocks. The paper explores these effects with a review of the literature. It studies consumption and income responses, labor-market responses, and spillovers across sectors. It ends up providing evidence on the relative magnitudes of various mechanisms through which commodity prices affect household (and national) welfare in developing economies.
    Keywords: Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Labor Policies,Access to Markets
    Date: 2014–05–01
  15. By: Hiroshi Fujiki; Cheng Hsiao
    Abstract: We use data from Public Opinion Surveys on Household Financial Assets and Liabilities from 1991 to 2002 to investigate the issues of unobserved heterogeneity among cross-sectional units and stability of Japanese aggregate money demand function. Conditions that permit individual data and aggregate data to be modeled under one consistent format are given. Alternative definitions of money are explored through year-by-year cross-sectional estimates of Fujiki-Mulligan (1996) household money demand model. We find that using M3 appears to be broadly consistent with time series estimates using the aggregates constructed from the micro data. The results appear to support the existence of a stable money demand function for Japan. The estimated income elasticity for M3 is about 0.68 and five year bond interest rate elasticity is about -0.124.
    Keywords: Demand for Money; Aggregation; Heterogeneity
    JEL: E41 C43
    Date: 2013–10–14
  16. By: Beatrice CAMAIONI (INEA (National Institute for Agricultural Economics), Rome - Italy); Roberto ESPOSTI (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali); Francesco PAGLIACCI (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali); Franco SOTTE (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the main drivers of the distribution of the Rural Development Policy's expenditure throughout the EU. Ex-post funds distribution across EU NUTS3 regions is considered. Three effects are admitted as major drivers: the "country effect"; the "rural effect" (i.e., the more rural a region the larger the amount of support it is expected to receive); the "pure spatial effect" (i.e. the influence of bordering regions and, in particular, of their degree of rurality). These effects are estimated adopting alternative spatial model specifications: spatial Durbin model, SEM and SAR model. Results differ across alternative specifications and definitions of rurality, but the prevalent evidence suggests that rurality matters in a counterintuitive direction, while also neighbouring regions play a role.
    Date: 2014–05
  17. By: Andrea Usai
    Date: 2014–03
  18. By: Hau Chyi
    Abstract: Previous studies on low-skilled single mothers generally focus on the binary decisions of either welfare use or work. However, work among welfare participants has increased steadily since the mid 1990s. This study estimates the joint probability of the two decisions using a bivariate probit model. I investigate the role of the 1993 EITC expansion on the decline of welfare caseloads.Using monthly welfare use and work information from the Study of Income and Program Participation, I find that the 1993 EITC expansion has at least the same effect on reducing welfare use as the welfare reform initiatives, in particular, welfare time limits. Moreover, the elasticity estimates indicate that single mothers, especially those who were not employed and dependent solely on welfare before the expansion, were more responsive to the EITC expansion than to welfare time limits. Finally, the increase in work among welfare participants is due to the relative ineffectiveness of the policies in reducing the net population of those who are on welfare and work simultaneously.
    Date: 2013–10–14
  19. By: Maxime Lebovics; Niels Hermes; Marek Hudon
    Abstract: A major debate in microfinance focuses on the existence of a trade-off between the financial sustainability of microfinance institutions (MFIs) and their outreach to poor clients. This paper adds to this debate by analyzing whether financial and social efficiency are mutually exclusive in a context of implicit subsidies by the state and international donors. We use data from a sample of 28 Vietnamese MFIs and apply Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to identify the existence of a trade-off. Our analysis shows that for Vietnamese MFIs financial and social efficiency are not related. We interpret this as evidence for the fact that there is no support to believe that there is such a trade-off. Subsidies, based on which most Vietnamese MFIs currently operate, helps them to show high financial efficiency, while at the same time being able to attain their social goals. Nevertheless, this model may not be sustainable in the long-term.
    Date: 2014–05–05
  20. By: Kaye-Blake, Bill (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research); Schilling, Chris (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research); Nixon, Chris (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research); Destremau, Killian (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)
    Abstract: This paper has been prepared as part of NZIER’s public good programme to provide independent advice on water policy. We explore the current and expected future challenges facing water management, and review the history of water policy in New Zealand. We note that there is a broad consensus that the current approach under the Resource Management Act is flawed, and there is momentum to develop a multi-faceted framework that examines those challenges to assist stakeholders in thinking about what needs to be done for freshwater policy.
    Keywords: Water Resource Management; Water Policy; New Zealand; Legislation; Freshwater Policy
    JEL: Q25 Q28
    Date: 2014–03–17
  21. By: Gajwani, Kiran; Zhang, Xiaobo
    Abstract: Using data from 144 village-level governments in India's Tamil Nadu state, this paper investigates political reservations for women and whether the gender of village government leaders influences the provision of village public goods. A knowledge test of village government presidents and a survey about the interaction between village presidents and higher-level officials reveal that female village government presidents have much lower knowledge of the village government system than do their male counterparts and have significantly less contact with higher-level government officials. Although male and female presidents provide similar amounts of some public goods, there is strong evidence that village governments led by a woman built fewer schools and roads—two public goods that require relatively more contact and coordination with higher-level officials.
    Keywords: Population Policies,Gender and Health,Agricultural Knowledge and Information Systems,Gender and Law,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems
    Date: 2014–05–01
  22. By: Cooke, Roger M. (Resources for the Future)
    Abstract: Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded quantification of subjective uncertainty, deep uncertainty is frequently invoked to disable uncertainty quantification, with attendant problems in communicating and propagating uncertainty through chains of reasoning. These issues, together with science-based uncertainty quantification, are illustrated with recent applications to ice sheet dynamics. The issues of performance assessment and validation are addressed.
    Keywords: deep uncertainty, Knightian uncertainty, risk, expert judgment, climate change
    Date: 2014–04–25
  23. By: Xiaofang Dong; Shihe Fu; Yufei Yuan
    Abstract: Local governments often charge developers impact fees to finance local public goods. This has been practiced in the Chinese cities for more than two decades; however, no empirical studies have tested the effect of impact fees on real estate prices. Using a panel data set for 35 large and medium cities from 1998 to 2008, we find that impact fees lead to a significant increase in real estate prices. For a given city, an increase of impact fee by one yuan leads to an increase of about 5 yuan in the price of newly-built housing; a 1% increase in impact fee leads to an increase of 5 percentage points in the housing price index and 7 percentage points in the land price index.
    Keywords: Impact fee; Real estate price; Local public finance
    JEL: H71 R30 R31
    Date: 2013–10–14

This nep-agr issue is ©2014 by Angelo Zago. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.