New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2013‒11‒16
48 papers chosen by

  1. Farmers' perceptions of land and water property rights: Discrepancies between de jure and de facto rights in Tajikistan By Gehrigk, Frederike; Herzfeld, Thomas; Theesfeld, Insa
  2. Land use, food and nutrition security – case study in rural Uzbekistan By Gojenko, Boris; Leonhaeuser, I.-U.; Stulina, G.
  3. Intensive Commercial Agriculture in Fragile Uplands of Vietnam: How to Harness its Poverty Reduction Potential while Ensuring Environmental Sustainability? By Keil, Alwin; Saint-Macary, Camille; Zeller, Manfred
  4. Impacts of Liberalization on Agriculture and Trade: A Case Study of Uzbekistan By Sattarov, Doniyor; Schmitz, P. Michael; Mal, Puran
  5. Efficiency of wheat and cotton producing farms in Uzbekistan: a Stochastic Frontier Approach By Absalyamov, Davron
  6. Economic analysis of afforestation of marginal croplands in Uzbekistan By Djanibekov, Utkur; Khamzina, Asia; Villamor, Grace B.; Lamers, John P.A
  7. How Fruit Consumption Might Be Fruitful for the Economy: Analyzing Effects of Improvements in Fruit and Vegetable Availability and Accessibility in Uzbekistan By Ergashev, Alisher
  8. Wood Bioenergy and Land Use: A Challenge to the Searchinger Hypothesis By Sedjo, Roger A.; Sohngen, Brent; Riddle, Anne
  9. Food and Energy (In)security: Evidence from Agricultural Investments in Selected Emerging Economies By Maria Bruna Zolin; Marco Braggion
  10. The Transformation of Rice Value Chains in Bangladesh and India: Implications for Food Security By Reardon, Thomas; Minten, Bart; Chen, Kevin; Adriano, Lourdes
  11. Livelihood assessment: A participatory tool for natural resource dependent communities By Lax, Jutta; Krug, Joachim
  12. On Price Endogeneity in the Analysis of Food Demand in China By Hovhannisyan, Vardges; Bozic, Marin
  13. Bilateral Trade and Food Security By Brooks, Douglas; Ferrarini, Benno; Go, Eugenia
  14. Special agricultural microfinance organizations - Macedonian Experience By Kovachev, Goran
  15. Food Prices and Population Health in Developing Countries: An Investigation of the Effects of the Food Crisis Using a Panel Analysis By Lee, Suejin; Lim, Jae-Young; Lee, Hyun-Hoon; Park, Cyn-Young
  16. International Transmission of Food Prices and Volatilities: A Panel Analysis By Lee , Hyun-Hoon; Park, Cyn-Young
  17. Poverty Impacts of Agricultural Policy Adjustments in an Opening Economy: the Case of Colombia By Ricardo Arguello; Daniel Valderrama G.; Sandra Acero W.
  18. Non-linear price transmission between biofuels, fuels and food commodities By Ladislav Kristoufek; Karel Janda; David Zilberman
  19. Rice Trade and Price Volatility: Implications on ASEAN and Global Food Security By Clarete, Ramon; Adriano, Lourdes; Esteban, Amelia
  20. Agriculture and Structural Transformation in Developing Asia: Review and Outlook By Briones, Roehlano; Felipe, Jesus
  21. Agricultural sector and industrial agglomeration By PICARD, Pierre M.; ZENG, Dao-Zhi
  22. A systemic analysis of land markets and land institutions in West African cities : rules and practices -- the case of Bamako, Mali By Durand-Lasserve, Alain; Durand-Lasserve, Maylis; Selod, Harris
  23. Measuring the Effect of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation on Food Insecurity Using a Behavioral Rasch Selection Model By Rabbitt, Matthew P.
  24. Overcoming Critical Constraints to Sustaining Productivity Growth in Key Commodities of Asia and the Pacific By Sombilla, Mercedita; Mapa, Dennis; Piza, Sharon
  25. The Agricultural Productivity Gap By Douglas Gollin; David Lagakos; Michael E. Waugh
  26. Performance evaluation of the BUDGET model in simulating cotton and wheat yield and soil moisture in Fergana valley By Kenjabaev, Shavkat; Forkutsa, I.; Bach, M.; Frede, H.-G.
  27. Socio-economic Features of the Agro-pastoralists in the Zarafshan Valley, NW Tajikistan By Avazov, Shakhzod
  28. Panel Data Nonparametric Estimation of Production Risk and Risk Preferences: An Application to Polish Dairy Farms By Tomasz Gerard Czekaj; Arne Henningsen
  29. Conditions and Perspectives of financial lending in Macedonian Agriculture and rural Development By Gjosheva-Kovachevikj, Marija; Kovachev, Goran; Risteski, Hristijan
  30. Measuring the Technical Efficiency of Farms Producing Environmental Output: Parametric and Semiparametric Estimation of Multi-output Stochastic Ray Production Frontiers By Tomasz Gerard Czekaj
  31. Impact on Corn Prices from Reduced Biofuel Mandates By Bruce A. Babcock; Wei Zhou
  32. The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices – Evidence for the MENA Countries By Ansgar Belke; Christian Dreger
  33. Production and Marketing of Vegetables among smallholders in Ethiopia: The case of Lume district of Ethiopia By Gebreselassie, Samuel
  34. Examining the Determinants of Food Prices in Developing Asia By Huh , Hyeon-seung; Park, Cyn-Young
  35. Unexpected and Growing Interest in Land Investments? The Asian Case By Maria Bruna Zolin; Lucia Luzi
  36. Institutional analysis of irrigation management in Uzbekistan using Qualitative Comparative Analysis: Case studies of water consumers associations in Bukhara region By Hamidov, Ahmad; Khamidov, Mukhamadkhan; Thiel, Andreas
  37. International Trade and Risk Sharing in the Global Rice Market: The Impact of Foreign and Domestic Supply Shocks By Jha, Shikha; Kubo, Kensuke; Ramaswami, Bharat
  38. Is Rogun a Silver Bullet for Water Scarcity in Central Asia? By Bekchanov, Maksud; Bhaduri, A.; Ringler, C.
  39. Nuevos paradigmas agrarios: una aproximación a los fundamentos teóricos de la “soberanía alimentaria” By Ángel Luis González Esteban
  40. The impact of WTO accession on agricultural sector of Tajikistan By Khakimov, Parviz
  41. Risk preferences and development revisited: A field experiment in Vietnam By Vieider, Ferdinand M.; Truong, Nghi; Martinsson, Peter; Pham Khanh Nam; Martinsson, Peter
  42. Poverty and Food Security in India By (No last name available), Himanshu
  43. Managing Risks and Tradeoffs Using Water Markets By Kerr, Suzi
  44. Water Resoures and Unconventional Fossil Fuel Development: Linking Physical Impacts to Social Costs By Kuwayama, Yusuke; Olmstead, Sheila; Krupnick, Alan
  45. Safety Nets and Food Programs in Asia: A Comparative Perspective By Jha, Shikha; Kotwal, Ashok; Ramaswami, Bharat
  46. Agrarian Structures, Urbanization and Inequality By Cem Oyvat
  47. Analyzing Effectiveness of Development Aid Projects: Evaluation Ratings or Project Indicators? By Laura Metzger; Isabel Günther
  48. Summary of Summer Electronic Benefits Transfer for Children: Evaluation Findings for the Full Implementation Year 2012. By Ann M. Collins; Ronette Briefel; Jacob Alex Klerman; Gretchen Rowe; Anne Wolf; Christopher W. Logan; Anne Gordon; Carrie Wolfson; Ayesha Enver; Cheryl Owens; Charlotte Cabili; Stephen Bell

  1. By: Gehrigk, Frederike; Herzfeld, Thomas; Theesfeld, Insa
    Abstract: With about 85 % of irrigated agricultural land in Tajikistan, irrigation schemes play a central role for commercial crop production of dekhan farms (peasants) but also contribute to food security for households by cultivating kitchen gardens or presidential land. However, many structural and institutional problems in the land and water sector hinder the efficiency and sustainability of Tajik agriculture.This paper is aimed to determine the discrepancies between de jure and de facto (property) rights of the different farm households with respect to land and water resources for the case of Tajikistan.
    Keywords: land and water property rights, Tajikistan, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, R, Q, O,
    Date: 2013–10–01
  2. By: Gojenko, Boris; Leonhaeuser, I.-U.; Stulina, G.
    Abstract: The present research is realised in the frame of the ZEU project “LUCA” (Land Use, Ecosystem Services and Human Welfare in Central Asia). LUCA builds a platform for joint analysis of land use effects for a whole region, involving participants from various countries of Central Asia. In the transition from planned to market economies, the Central Asian Republics experienced rising poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition as well as serious degradation of water and land resources. The process to a market oriented economy has not been adequately supported by national institutional development. It resulted in a reduced living standard. Land use strategies in Uzbekistan determine the level of food security. While the area of rangelands is vast, the livestock farming and production of grains, fruits and vegetables play a major role in food security and also are the basic source of rural population income. More than 60% of Uzbeks live in rural area. Uzbekistan produces adequate calories to supply the population but almost 30 % lives below the food poverty line (IFPRI, 2006). The poorest population spends more than 60 % of income for food and takes a diet dominated by cereals. The existing system of the “state order” to produce cotton and wheat does not allow to growing up food crops in adequate amount. The survey is focused on questions on the socio-economic situation, societal determinants of food supply, food consumption patterns, eating habits, and coping strategies managing food crisis on household level. Markhamat region of Andijan province and Denau region of Surkhandarya province are the two most populated regions of Uzbekistan and presented as the study area. The data collection is based on the own structured questionnaire, on the Household Food Security Survey Module (HFSSM), Food Consumption Score (FCS), and Food List Recall. Data analysis was done with SPSS. The main results show the percentage of food secure and food insecure households as well as the food consumption status of these households concerning cash and food crops households are producing on their farm land and/or on their homestead plot. The results show that the main indicator of the level of income, food security situation and food consumption status of household is the production strategy. Thereby the more households produce cotton and wheat they will have less income, and a worse food security and food consumption status.
    Keywords: Uzbekistan, rural area, crop production, food security, descriptive analysis, regression analysis, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2013–10–01
  3. By: Keil, Alwin; Saint-Macary, Camille; Zeller, Manfred
    Abstract: Markets for high-value agricultural commodities are growing and can contribute to reducing rural poverty. However, the poor may be unable to participate in such markets, and adverse environmental impacts may counterbalance short-term benefits. Hence, policies are needed that help reducing poverty while protecting the environment. We address this challenge using the case of commercial maize production for animal feed purposes in a marginal upland area of Vietnam. We identify determinants of farmers’ degree of participation in maize production using regression analysis and assess farmers’ awareness of soil erosion and their conservation practices. The poorest are particularly specialized in maize but depend on disadvantageous input supply and marketing arrangements to offset infrastructural and institutional deficiencies. High awareness of soil erosion is contrasted by lacking conservation practices due to high opportunity costs. Policies should foster the integration of livestock in the maize-based farming system and promote soil conservation technologies that produce feed.
    Keywords: Commercial agriculture; rural poverty; land degradation; tobit regression; Vietnam;
    JEL: O13 Q56
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Sattarov, Doniyor; Schmitz, P. Michael; Mal, Puran
    Abstract: The agricultural sector of Uzbekistan is still characterized by unsustainable production patterns and the agricultural institutions of the country are controlled to a large extent through government intervention. The Government takes the decision to grow cotton and wheat and fix the output prices. The decision about the production quotas for cotton and wheat leads to a restricted area and water availability for growing other crops. The country is affected by a locally occurring climate change as well as regional climate change threatens to aggravate existing water use conflicts. The current and expected climatic conditions are showing the additional irrigation applications for a sustainable and fruitful agricultural production. The partial implementation of reforms such as privatization and liberalization of agricultural markets affect the development of agriculture and agricultural trade in Uzbekistan. This paper highlights the major effects of market and price liberalization on agricultural trade using the partial equilibrium model AGRISIM which is based on the "Static World Policy Simulation Model" (SWOPSIM)of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).With the help of the model, changes in general economic conditions and policy intervention in agricultural markets and foreign trade are simulated. The study suggests that the issues of sustainable agriculture development and food security in Uzbekistan can be achieved through, liberalization of agricultural markets and trade specially wheat and cotton.
    Keywords: Uzbekistan, agricultural sector, agriculture trade, liberalization, AGRISIM Model., Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, R, Q, O,
    Date: 2013–10–01
  5. By: Absalyamov, Davron
    Abstract: In the recent decades agricultural production in Uzbekistan has been facing problems in relation to environment and agricultural management systems especially with regard to the efficiency and the productivity of agricultural enterprises. The sharp decrease of total factor productivity after independency in 1990 can be traced back to inefficiency and misallocation of resources. Although statistical data shows steadily increasing partial productivity of land and labor since 1996 land degradation, low level of mechanization, partial water scarcity and the use of low-productive labor appear to prove the opposite. The specific feature of the current study is to estimate impact of environmental factors such as water availability and provision, soil quality on technical efficiency level of farms. Therefore the main question of the study is how efficient are wheat and cotton producing farms in Uzbekistan and what are the main sources of inefficiency? Other specific questions of the study are: • How do ecological factors such water scarcity, soil salinity and other farm-specific, farm-size specific and region-specific factors affect farm efficiency? • What is the pattern of input use and production output for wheat and cotton producing farmers? • How is the production of state-ordered commodities organized?
    Keywords: Efficiency of wheat and cotton producing farms in Uzbekistan, Stochastic frontier approach, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Productivity Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, R, Q, O,
    Date: 2013–10–01
  6. By: Djanibekov, Utkur; Khamzina, Asia; Villamor, Grace B.; Lamers, John P.A
    Abstract: Irrigated agricultural production in Uzbekistan is threatened by the impacts of land degradation, irrigation water scarcity and climate change. The conversion of marginal croplands to tree plantations is an option for rehabilitation of nutrient-depleted cropland soils, saving of irrigation water, carbon sequestration, and improving population welfare. The economic benefits and impacts of tree planting on marginal croplands, and policies that may facilitate the adoption of this land use are not well known. We employed various methods at different scales to investigate economically viable options of afforestation on marginal croplands on example of irrigated drylands of Uzbekistan. This includes analyzing the impacts of afforestation supported by the carbon (C) sequestration reward on the rural livelihoods. At field level (one hectare), the stochastic dominance analysis was employed to investigate the financial attractiveness of afforestation on marginal farmlands under uncertainty. At the farm level, the expected utility method was employed to analyze effects of this land use change on farm incomes. To consider the bimodal structure of agriculture in Uzbekistan, the stochastic dynamic farm-household model was developed. The results indicate that due to benefits from non-timber products, afforestation is a more viable land use option on marginal lands than crop cultivation. Allowing the exemption of marginal lands from cotton cropping in favor of tree planting would incentivize afforestation. At the same time, the field level analysis indicates that due to variability in returns a substantial increase in C prices would make afforestation as financially attractive as crops on marginal lands. However, when considering uncertainties in land use returns at the whole farm level, afforestation would occur without the C incentives due to improved irrigation water use efficiency and reduced revenue risks through land use diversification. Through the considered farm-household wage-labor relationship, the benefits of afforestation on marginal croplands at farm would be also transferred to rural smallholders employed at this farm. This would mainly result from improved payment structure by tree products, particularly fuelwood and foliage for livestock fodder.
    Keywords: Uzbekistan, Sustainable rural development, Land use diversification, Bimodal agricultural system, Non-timber tree products, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, R, Q, O,
    Date: 2013–10–01
  7. By: Ergashev, Alisher
    Abstract: Given the importance of healthy diet and especially the adequate intake of fruit and vegetables, the current state of inefficient agricultural production in Uzbekistan has serious adverse consequences on the yields of fruit and vegetables, and thus on income of such farmers (mostly, dehkan farms and households), and would raise the prices paid by consumers of such food products, especially in off season. The impact of higher food prices would have the most significant effect on the poorest rural people for whom the necessity of healthy food consumption is of major importance due to the poor nutritional status. The purpose of this research is, therefore, to investigate the effects of improved fruit/vegetable availability and accessibility on demand and public health in Uzbekistan. In addition, potential and existing constraints and opportunities to improve the availability and accessibility of fruit and vegetables as a key determinant of healthy diet will be explored.
    Keywords: Fruit and Vegetable Availability and Accessibility, public health, Uzbekistan, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, R, Q, O,
    Date: 2013–10–01
  8. By: Sedjo, Roger A. (Resources for the Future); Sohngen, Brent; Riddle, Anne
    Abstract: A concern of many environmentalists is that the use of biomass energy will decimate the forests. Searchinger et al. (2008, 2009) examined this issue related to corn ethanol and suggested that substituting corn ethanol for petroleum would increase carbon emissions associated with the land conversion abroad necessary to offset the decline in corn availability. Associated with these concerns is the overall issue of climate change (IPCC 2006). This issue is broader than simply corn. If agricultural croplands are drawn into the production of biofuel feedstocks, commodity prices are expected to rise, triggering land conversions overseas, releasing carbon emissions, and offsetting the carbon reductions expected from bioenergy. Using a general stylized forest sector management model, our study examines the economic potential of traditional industrial forests and supplemental dedicated fuelwood plantations to produce biomass on submarginal lands. It finds that these sources can economically produce large levels of biomass without compromising crop production, thereby mitigating the land conversion and carbon emissions effects posited by the Searchinger Hypothesis.
    Keywords: biomass, forests, fuelwood, land use, land conversion, wood biomass, bioenergy, carbon emissions, feedstock, Searchinger Hypothesis, climate change
    JEL: Q1 Q16 Q23 Q24 Q42 Q54
    Date: 2013–11–05
  9. By: Maria Bruna Zolin (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Marco Braggion (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)
    Abstract: Land grabbing appears to be driven by a variety of factors that seem destined to expand in the long term. The aim of this paper is to highlight the behavior and the role of China (a net food importer country) and India (which is facing a problem of energy insecurity) in the current escalation of the commercialization of land and to identify (through a correlation matrix) the drivers of land grabbing deals. Our analyses are based on the Land Matrix Database.
    Keywords: Agricultural economics, land investments, food security, energy security, emerging economies.
    JEL: O13 P28 Q15 Q18 Q41 Q42
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Reardon, Thomas (Renmin University); Minten, Bart (International Food Policy Research Institute); Chen, Kevin (International Food Policy Research Institute); Adriano, Lourdes (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: This paper reports the survey findings that rice value chains are transforming in Bangladesh and India. The main elements of the transformation are as follows: First, rice value chains in both countries have begun to “geographically lengthen” and “intermediationally shorten.” Second, farmers capture about 60% of the final urban retail price of rice; this can be compared to about 23% in 1998 and 37% in 1980 in the United States. Third, the corollary is that about 40% of the value chain is formed by the postharvest segments of the rice value chain—in milling, trading, and retailing. Fourth, while much policy debate centers on direct government operations in food value chains, such operations were, in general, quite small in the rice value chain, except for the Government of India’s purchases from mills. Fifth, the indirect roles of governments have been important in enabling change and at times in providing incentives for transformation. Sixth, government subsidies had important effects, but the evidence of accessibility to subsidies and the impact of the services were mixed. Seventh, the study points to the importance of farm input supply chains upstream from farmers and of midstream and downstream postharvest activities such as logistics and wholesale, milling, and retailing. Policy implications are drawn in the final section of the paper.
    Keywords: agriculture in Bangladesh; agriculture in India; rice value chain; stacked survey method
    JEL: O13 Q12 Q13
    Date: 2013–09–04
  11. By: Lax, Jutta; Krug, Joachim
    Abstract: [Foreword] Globally, around 15 million hectares of forests - mainly tropical forests - are converted to other uses or lost through natural causes each year. Without forests mankind has no chance to survive. However, the poorest of the poor are directly dependent on forests as a resource of food, medicine, construction material and energy. Management, conservation, and sustainable development of forests are key issues of the international environmental and forest policy since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in the year 1992 to counteract the destruction of forests. In order to maintain tropical forests and to conserve their functions, structure and biodiversity as a collective good of humankind, forests need to be managed in a sustainable way. Conservation efforts are faced with the threefold task of incorporating ecological, economic and social sustainability aspects equally into development approaches. The relevance of livelihood issues to sustainable development has its basis in the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development 1992 and is at present an essential element in development approaches (e.g. MDGMillenium Development Goals). In line with Campbell the understanding of rural livelihoods is one of the keys to putting an end to global poverty. Though environmental resources can make up a considerable proportion of rural livelihoods it is necessary to evaluate this environmental dependency. This field manual introduces a participatory tool for the assessment of local livelihood situations of rural forest dependent communities. The assessment tool was initially implemented in a case study in Northern Vietnam. Vietnam, representative for many other tropical countries considered a developing country, where over 60 % of the populations livelihood strategy is based on agricultural and forest activities. --
    Date: 2013
  12. By: Hovhannisyan, Vardges; Bozic, Marin
    Abstract: Price endogeneity has been ignored in previous analyses of food demand in China. We exploit farm price data collected from the China National Bureau of Statistics to account for price endogeneity using reduced form price equations. Applying our unique econometric approach to the analysis of provincial-level food demand in China, we find strong statistical evidence of price endogeneity. Models that ignore price endogeneity result in substantial upward biased estimates of future food demand in China.
    Keywords: Consumer welfare, expenditure endogeneity, food demand in China, Generalized Quadratic AIDS, price endogeneity, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2013–11
  13. By: Brooks, Douglas (Asian Development Bank); Ferrarini, Benno (Asian Development Bank); Go, Eugenia (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: We analyze the relationship between food security and trade, focusing on food importers’ exposure to sudden market failures from relying on a narrow range of international suppliers. We compute a bilateral import penetration index (BIPI), which gauges the degree to which a country depends on another for food imports. Food trade maps are drawn by the application of a force-directed algorithm that sorts through computed BIPIs and maps the nodes corresponding to the strength of bilateral ties between country pairs, thereby showing importers’ vulnerabilities to disruptions in bilateral channels. Results suggest that measures aimed at diversifying supply sources reduce vulnerability.
    Keywords: food security; trade; bilateral trade; agriculture; agriculture trade
    JEL: F13 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2013–08–29
  14. By: Kovachev, Goran
    Abstract: In countries where agriculture has substantial role in generating domestic product, sustainable microfinance can seriously increase economic activities and hence rural development. It is well known that agriculture is perceived as specific and risky to be financed by banks. Therefore, creating a specific sustainable microfinance (sometimes state owned) institutions is key element in enhancing rural and agricultural activities. These organizations together with banks and other small-scale financial institutions operating in close collaboration with the Government have a significant role in accelerating economic welfare of farmers and rural poor. This study tends to emphasize the importance of creating special microfinance institutions targeted towards strategic economic sectors such agriculture, with a focus on Agricultural Credit Discount Fund - a separate unit within the Macedonian Bank for Development Promotion that administers a credit line created to support Macedonian agribusiness. The ACDF’s ‘modus operandi’ is a guideline to every similar potential organization, as it creates prerequisites for easier access to microloans and increased income to its beneficiaries. The outstanding portfolio performance, fulfillment of the objectives and good impact on stakeholders is strong confirmation to this claim.
    Keywords: sustainable microfinance; agriculture; high risk; economic welfare; rural development; special institutions; Agricultural Credit Discount Fund; microloans; agribusiness
    JEL: G2 H81 Q1
    Date: 2013–10–24
  15. By: Lee, Suejin (Korea University); Lim, Jae-Young (Korea University); Lee, Hyun-Hoon (Kangwon National University); Park, Cyn-Young (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: High food prices can be an immediate threat to household food security, undermining population health, retarding human development, and lowering labor productivity for the economy in the long term. We employ a panel dataset covering 63 developing countries from 2001 to 2010 to make a comprehensive assessment of the effects of food price inflation and volatility on population health measured by infant mortality rate, child mortality rate, and the prevalence of undernourishment. We find that rising food prices have a significant and adverse effect on all three health indicators in developing countries. Furthermore, the impact of food prices is severer in the least developing countries although the effect is moderated in countries with a greater share of agriculture in gross domestic product.
    Keywords: food price; health; food security
    JEL: I15 I18 I19 Q18
    Date: 2013–08–29
  16. By: Lee , Hyun-Hoon (Kangwon National University); Park, Cyn-Young (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: High and volatile food prices pose a significant policy challenge around the world, and an understanding of the dynamics of food price inflation and volatility is essential in designing appropriate policy responses. Using the panel data for 72 countries from 2000 to 2011, the paper assesses the international transmission of food price inflation and volatilities as well as the effects of various internal and external factors on domestic food price inflation and volatility. The paper offers evidence in support of the international transmission of food price inflation and volatility. Specifically, the paper finds that the domestic food price inflation in Asia is strongly associated with the lagged value of global food price inflation (using the FAO food price index), while volatility spillovers from global to domestic food prices are rather contemporaneous. The paper also finds that both national food price inflation rates and volatilities are strongly associated with both intra- and extra- regional food price inflation rates and volatilities, respectively. The findings also suggest that higher economic growth rates, greater shares of food in merchandise imports, and smaller increases in the share of food in merchandise imports lead to lower domestic food price inflation. An appreciation of local currency, greater political stability, and higher income level are also found to lower domestic food price inflation. On the other hand, higher economic growth rates lead to lower volatilities of food prices.
    Keywords: Food price inflation; food price volatility; food price transmission; food security; food policy
    JEL: E31 F49 N50 N55 Q18
    Date: 2013–08–30
  17. By: Ricardo Arguello; Daniel Valderrama G.; Sandra Acero W.
    Abstract: We aim to assess the sectoral and poverty impacts of changes in agricultural policy in Colombia on the rural sector. For this we use an agriculture specialized static CGE model, together with a microsimulation model that allows employment to shift between sectors. The results indicate that the sectoral impact of the implemented program tends to be small and varies considerably across crops. Also, while it does reduce poverty, these impacts are small and tend to be concentrated in rural households toward the middle of the household income distribution.
    Keywords: Agricultural policy, Rural poverty, Computable General Equilibrium, Microsimulation, Colombia
    Date: 2012
  18. By: Ladislav Kristoufek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Karel Janda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); David Zilberman (University of California in Berkeley)
    Abstract: For the biofuel markets and related commodities, we study their price transmission, which is in fact equivalent to studying price cross-elasticities. Importantly, we focus on the price dependence of the price transmission mechanism. Several methodological caveats are discussed. Specifically, we combine the memory robust feasible generalized least squares estimation with two-stage least squares to control for endogeneity bias and inconsistency. We find that both ethanol and biodiesel prices are responsive to their production factors (ethanol to corn, and biodiesel to German diesel). The strength of transmission between both significant pairs increased remarkably during the food crisis of 2007/2008.
    Keywords: biofuels; price transmission; non-linearity
    JEL: C22 Q16 Q42
    Date: 2013–10
  19. By: Clarete, Ramon (University of the Philippines); Adriano, Lourdes (Asian Development Bank); Esteban, Amelia (University of British Columbia)
    Abstract: This paper highlights the thinness of rice trade relative to wheat and maize, and the contrasting price volatility and tradability relations for wheat and maize, which display a positive correlation, and for rice, which show an inverse relation. The paper focuses on Southeast Asia, which hosts the world’s biggest rice exporters and rice importers. Using the Granger causality tests to determine correlation, the analysis concludes that very low global trading activity in rice that tends to self-perpetuate its dampening effect on trade does not cause extreme rice price volatility in the region, but the other way around. Rice-importing countries appear to resort to self-sufficiency measures as insurance to compensate for the high risks of unreliable rice supply and unaffordable rice prices. What would it take for countries to regain their confidence in external rice trade? The Association of Southeast Asian Nations Integrated Food Security Program provides a menu of policies for reducing and managing the chances of excessive rice price volatility.
    Keywords: ASEAN cereal trade; ASEAN food security; ASEAN rice trade; rice price volatility; rice self-sufficiency programs; rice trade
    JEL: F13 F14 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2013–09–02
  20. By: Briones, Roehlano (Philippine Institute for Development Studies); Felipe, Jesus (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: Relative to other developing regions, developing Asia has experienced a slower decline in employment share in agriculture, compared to its output share; a rapid growth in labor and land productivity; and a shift from agricultural output from traditional to high-value products. The most successful Asian economies have pursued an agricultural development-led industrialization pathway. Nevertheless, agriculture remains the largest employer in many large Asian countries, hence future structural transformation must take into account agricultural transformation. Extrapolating from past trends, and taking to account emerging conditions, many countries of developing Asia will be expected to move on to the next phase of agricultural development; however even in the long term, agriculture’s employment share will continue to be sizable relative with the output share. To expedite transformation, many Asian countries will still need to promote long term productivity growth in agriculture and facilitate upgrading of their farms and agroenterprises within the global value chain.
    Keywords: economic growth; structural transformation; agricultural development; agricultural productivity; global value chain
    JEL: O13 Q19
    Date: 2013–08–09
  21. By: PICARD, Pierre M.; ZENG, Dao-Zhi
  22. By: Durand-Lasserve, Alain; Durand-Lasserve, Maylis; Selod, Harris
    Abstract: This paper presents a new type of land market analysis relevant to cities with plural tenure systems as in West Africa. The methodology hinges on a systemic analysis of land delivery channels, which helps to show how land is initially made available for circulation, how tenure can be formalized incrementally, and the different means whereby households can access land. The analysis is applied to the area of Bamako in Mali, where information was collected through (i) interviews with key informants, (ii) a literature review on land policies, public allocations, and customary transfers of land, (iii) a press review on land disputes, and (iv) a survey of more than 1,600 land transfers of un-built plots that occurred between 2009 and 2012. The analysis finds that land is mostly accessed through an informal customary channel, whereby peri-urban land is transformed from agricultural to residential use, and through a public channel, which involves the administrative allocation of residential plots to households. The integrated analysis of land markets and land institutions stresses the complexity of procedures and the extra-legality of practices that strongly affect the functioning of formal and informal markets and make access to land costly and insecure, with negative social, economic, and environmental impacts over the long term.
    Keywords: Urban Housing,Public Sector Management and Reform,Municipal Housing and Land,National Urban Development Policies&Strategies,Urban Housing and Land Settlements
    Date: 2013–11–01
  23. By: Rabbitt, Matthew P. (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation and food insecurity using data from the 2001-2008 Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement (CPS-FSS). A behavioral Rasch selection model is proposed and estimated using four subsamples of low-income households: unmarried parent households, married parent households, all-elderly households, and other adult-only households. The model is identified using exogenous changes in state-level polices related to SNAP. The results indicate that SNAP has a strong ameliorative effect on food insecurity for married parent, all-elderly, and other adult-only households, while SNAP continues to be associated with greater food hardships for unmarried parent households. Participating in SNAP reduces the probability of food insecurity by 22.4 percent for other adult-only households, 18 percent for all-elderly households, and 17 percent for married parent households.
    Keywords: Food insecurity; SNAP; Dummy endogenous variable models
    JEL: C31 I38 Q18
    Date: 2013–11–04
  24. By: Sombilla, Mercedita (National Economic and Development Authority); Mapa, Dennis (University of the Philippines); Piza, Sharon (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: Two trends on yields have been observed for rice, wheat, and even edible oils in Asia. The deceleration of yield growth is one of these trends. The other relates to the differential yield increases across countries in the region. This study provides explanations for both trends and relates these to the exhaustion of the yield potential of current technology, emerging threats posed by climate change and other disturbances, varying levels of development across countries and hence the development of infrastructure, among others. Total factor productivity (TFP) estimates for these commodities indicate the potential to overcome these constraints, however. Key determinants of TFP growth were identified and discussed. While the influence of these determinants on the TFP estimates was not tested empirically in this study because of data limitations, evidence of the relationship was clear and strong in numerous TFP studies done for the agriculture sector as a whole, and for rice and wheat in various countries including Asian countries. Long-term growth will have to come from great advances in interventions being undertaken, three of which include (i) major breakthroughs in new varieties and farming systems in both fertile and unfertile lands; (ii) the restructuring of small farms into more efficient, mechanized large-scale operations, especially in production areas with good infrastructure for market access and irrigation; and (iii) the development of market mechanisms to enhance the comparative advantage of domestic production and explore the value-adding potential of commodities, particularly edible oil. Three policy recommendations are also forwarded to achieve these great advances: (i) sustained investment in agriculture; (ii) getting the mix of institutions right; and (iii) gearing up for globalization. The role of development partners as well as the private sector in effecting sustainable growth is briefly discussed as a concluding section.
    Keywords: TFP; constraints; Asia Pacific; rice; wheat; edible oil; investment; institutions; globalization; private sector; development partners
    JEL: D24 D57 O13 Q11 Q18
    Date: 2013–09–09
  25. By: Douglas Gollin; David Lagakos; Michael E. Waugh
    Abstract: According to national accounts data, value added per worker is much higher in the non-agricultural sector than in agriculture in the typical country, and particularly so in developing countries. Taken at face value, this “agricultural productivity gap” suggests that labor is greatly misallocated across sectors. In this paper, we draw on new micro evidence to ask to what extent the gap is still present when better measures of sector labor inputs and value added are taken into consideration. We find that even after considering sector differences in hours worked and human capital per worker, as well as alternative measures of sector output constructed from household survey data, a puzzlingly large gap remains.
    JEL: E01 E24 J61 O11 O13 O15 O18 O41 R11
    Date: 2013–11
  26. By: Kenjabaev, Shavkat; Forkutsa, I.; Bach, M.; Frede, H.-G.
    Abstract: Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) are major crops grown in Uzbekistan and water shortage is considered as the main limiting factor for crop growth as well as sustainable economic development. The objective of this study was to adapt and test the ability of the soil water balance model BUDGET (ver. 6.2) to simulate cotton as well as wheat yield and soil water content under current agronomic practices in the Fergana Valley. Crop yield and soil moisture content data, collected and measured from sites in 2010 and 2011, were compared with model simulations. Results showed that the BUDGET can be used to predict cotton yield and soil water content with acceptable accuracy using the minimum approach. However, predicted wheat yield was high compared to the observed and reported yield. Overall, relationship between the observed and predicted cotton and wheat yield for both sites combined produced R2 of 0.91 and 0.15, RMSE of 0.24 and 1.64 t ha−1, relative Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (Erel) of 0.71 and -5.68 and index of agreement (d) of 0.48 and -0.54, respectively. Similarly, comparison of the observed and simulated soil moisture contents at the top 0-30 cm soil layer and soil water contents in 90 cm profile yielded R2 of 0.88 and 0.71-0.88, RMSE of 2.74 %vol. and 21.4-28.7 mm, Erel of 0.87 and 0.53-0.81, respectively and d around 1.0. Consequently, the BUDGET can be a valuable tool for simulating both cotton yield and soil water content, particularly considering the fact that the model requires relatively minimal input data. Predicted soil water balance can be used to improve current practice of irrigation water management, whereas simulated soil moisture content can be used to estimate capillary rise from groundwater in the UPFLOW model. However, performance of the model has to be evaluated under a wider range of agro-climatic and soil conditions in the future.
    Keywords: BUDGET model, cotton and wheat yield and soil moisture in Fergana valley, Uzbekistan, International Development, Land Economics/Use, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, R, Q, O,
    Date: 2013–10–01
  27. By: Avazov, Shakhzod
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the livelihood of the agro-pastoral communities of Western part of Tajikistan, the Zarafshan valley. The data were amassed on current fodder management practices in eighteen villages through households as well as agro-pastoralists and visual observation on local pasture areas. The interviews and discussions yielded more information on the decision-making processes that dehkans (farmers) employ to determine the quantity and composition of feed offered to livestock at particular times of the year. Among the influences to decisions were constraints to grazing and knowledge of appropriate lopping regimes for different animal fodder species. Varying degrees of access to off-farm fodder sources and the numbers of livestock kept by different households were also seen to affect fodder management decisions. Development activities aimed at labour use to fodder collection and the exchange of local knowledge regarding local fodder management are most likely to result in improvements in the levels of fodder supply for the majority of households in the short term. The variations were discussed within site-specific dehkan groups and between group representatives at a series of workshops. According to the results, stable type, number of cattle, size of cultivated land, labor availability per household, existence of small ruminant flock in the village, and the number of small ruminants were found to be most important factors affecting household economic status. It was concluded that more robust and long-term studies should be conducted using a wider variation in grassland quality to confirm the study findings.
    Keywords: Zarafshan valley, agro-pastoral communities of Western part of Tajikistan, local fodder management practices, socio-economic features, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q, R, O,
    Date: 2013–10–01
  28. By: Tomasz Gerard Czekaj (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Arne Henningsen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: We apply nonparametric panel data kernel regression to investigate production risk, out-put price uncertainty, and risk attitudes of Polish dairy farms based on a firm-level unbalanced panel data set that covers the period 2004–2010. We compare different model specifications and different approaches for obtaining firm-specific measures of risk attitudes. We found that Polish dairy farmers are risk averse regarding production risk and price uncertainty. According to our results, Polish dairy farmers perceive the production risk as being more significant than the risk related to output price uncertainty.
    Keywords: production risk, price uncertainty, nonparametric econometrics, panel data, Polish dairy farms
    JEL: C14 C23 D24 Q12
    Date: 2013–10
  29. By: Gjosheva-Kovachevikj, Marija; Kovachev, Goran; Risteski, Hristijan
    Abstract: Agriculture is a fundamental economic activity in Macedonia which constitutes 10% of GDP over the past decade, adding related processing industry increases this share to approximately 15%-16%. During the last period of economic restructuring, agriculture played a critical role in the social and economic stability of the country. As a generator of growth of income and employment (19% of the total employment) agriculture needs a steady stream of funds to increase the competitiveness of the farmers by improving the technological and market infrastructure as well improving quality of life of rural population. Beside the state financial support of agriculture and rural development, the commercial financing - through lending is from utmost importance as well. The absorption of the available funds by rural population is limited by strong criteria. The pressure for acceleration process for developing of the competitive and sustainable agriculture and sustainable rural communities require better access of the funds to farmers. In this regards, the purpose of the research is to explore the existing situation in the lending system in agriculture and further provide analysis and recommendations for improving the commercial form of financing to farmers. Therefore, the desk work and field research through questionnaire and interviews have been conducted in order to collect information about needs and problems of the key actors in the field of lending in the agriculture and rural development. The results have been communicated with the stakeholders at panel discussion and furthermore upgraded and distributed to the relevant institutions and organisations. Findings demonstrate that the lending system in agriculture does not operate in an ideal environment and its facing numerous problems and obstacles
    Keywords: lending; agriculture; rural development; financial institutions; farmers
    JEL: G21 H81 Q1
    Date: 2013–09–15
  30. By: Tomasz Gerard Czekaj (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the technical efficiency of Polish dairy farms producing environmental output using the stochastic ray function to model multi-output – multi-input technology. Two general models are considered. One which neglects the provision of environmental output and one which accounts for such output. Three different proxies of environmental output are discussed: the ratio of permanent grassland (including rough grazing) to total agricultural area, the total area of permanent grassland and the amount of environmental subsidies which farmers are paid for providing environmental goods and services. These proxies are discussed on the basis of microeconomic production theory and are empirically compared by the econometric approach using parametric and semiparametric stochastic frontier models. The main focus is on the estimation of technical efficiency of farms producing the environmental output. Since some farms do not provide such output at all, the stochastic ray frontier functions are estimated to overcome the problem of the zero valued dependent variables which often occur when the Translog output distance function is used. The detailed results of the technical efficiency analysis show that, although the estimated efficiencies from the models which neglect the environmental output and those which account for the output are rather similar on average, the rankings based on these efficiencies differ. Finally, based on the theoretical economic reasoning and empirical application, we find that, for the given dataset, the semiparametric stochastic frontier model which uses a quantity of permanent grassland area as a proxy of environmental output, is the most suitable for application.
    Keywords: environmental output, stochastic frontier analysis, stochastic ray function, Translog, Polish dairy farms
    JEL: C14 C23 D24 Q12
    Date: 2013–10
  31. By: Bruce A. Babcock (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Wei Zhou
    Abstract: Press reports indicate that the Environmental Protection Agency may significantly reduce ethanol mandates to levels that can easily be met. To gain insight into what this decision implies about the price of corn we use a new model of the corn and RIN markets to project corn and ethanol prices and quantities through the 2019 marketing year under two ethanol mandate scenarios. The first scenario is the status quo where mandates that can be met with corn ethanol increase to 14.4 billion gallons in 2014 and 15 billion gallons in 2015 and thereafter. Mandates at this level can only be met using E85 so also included in this scenario is 5,000 new locations where E85 can be purchased. The second scenario holds mandates at 13 billion gallons, a level that can be met with E10. The price of corn is higher by between 5 and 6 percent—about 25 cents per bushel—in the higher mandate scenario. RIN prices are close to zero most of the time in the lower mandate scenario and average between 50 and 60 cents in the higher mandate scenario. Though the corn price difference is economically meaningful to corn farmers and livestock feeders, it is small compared to the price swings that the market has experienced since 2006. This modest change in corn prices from alternative mandate levels suggests that the level of mandate should be determined more by consideration of broad policy objectives rather than the impact on the price of corn. Of key importance to the advanced biofuel industry is whether policy will support the expansion of biofuels consumption by creating incentives to invest in flex cars and fueling stations that will facilitate expanded consumption of low-carbon ethanol. Consideration of the costs and benefits of creating these incentives as part of a national energy policy is of greater long-run importance than the impact of mandates on the price of corn.
    Date: 2013–11
  32. By: Ansgar Belke; Christian Dreger
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of global oil and food price shocks to consumer prices in Middle East-North African (MENA) countries using threshold cointegration methods. Oil and food price shocks increase domestic prices in the long run, whereby the impact of food prices dominates. While global prices are weakly exogenous, consumer prices respond to deviations from the equilibrium relationship. The shortrun adjustment pattern exhibits asymmetries and is particularly strong after positive shocks. Downward rigidities on wages may play a crucial role in this regard, as the relatively weak reactions of consumer prices after negative shocks are related to labour market institutions and public subsidies. The more rigid the regulations the more pronounced are the asymmetries. Robustness checks show that international price shocks do not affect GDP growth.
    Keywords: Oil and food price transmission; asymmetric error correction; MENA region
    JEL: C22 E31 Q02
    Date: 2013–10
  33. By: Gebreselassie, Samuel
    Abstract: Irrigated vegetable crop production as a viable economic venture helps farmers gain full employment, all year round and generate substantial amount of income. However, the positive prospects of emergence of dynamic and strong commercial horticulture sector among small farmers in the Lume area (as in other parts of the country) depends partly on further support on marketing and improved post-harvest product handling techniques. Specifically, there is a need to develop and improve marketing outlets for producers, and to improve marketing efficiency and competitiveness of existing vegetable markets. Any marketing support to small vegetable producers should focus on identifying and minimizing/neutralizing the factors that help brokers and wholesalers to determine price to their advantage. Any intervention should also be along the whole vale chain as competitiveness of one market depends on the other that precedes or follows it. It is essential to design marketing strategy for increasing market chain competitiveness (both along the whole value chain and in a given market especially where vegetable growers sell the bulk of their vegetable.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Marketing,
    Date: 2012–11
  34. By: Huh , Hyeon-seung (Yonsei University); Park, Cyn-Young (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: How the price of food is determined has become a critical issue, given the drastic surges in prices in recent years and the prevailing expectation of further increases. Along this line, this paper examines the sources of food price fluctuations in 11 developing Asian countries. The working model is a block vector autoregression (VAR), and 10 variables are classified into three blocks—world, region, and country—depending on their origin and nature. Empirical evidence shows that the regional shock plays a pivotal role in explaining the variations of domestic food prices, particularly at medium- to long-term horizons. Contrary to conventional belief, the world food price shock contributes little to the dynamics of domestic food prices in developing Asia. The findings suggest Asian food markets are more integrated regionally than with the world market. The short-run movements of domestic food prices are accounted for largely by the country’s own shock. Taken together, our findings suggest that promoting food price stability would require efforts at the regional level as well as at the domestic level, reflecting the influence of region-specific factors. Extensions to the developing countries in other regions produce similar findings on the determination of food prices.
    Keywords: food price; developing Asia; Shocks; block VAR
    JEL: C32 F15 Q11
    Date: 2013–09–03
  35. By: Maria Bruna Zolin (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Lucia Luzi (Department of Economics, Boston University)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to provide an Asian perspective on land investments with particular reference to the European position in terms of land acquisition. At first, the paper recalls the relevance that land holds as a distinct factor of production and consumption. Then, it investigates the different ways employed to define the recent phenomenon of land-grabbing in the increasing literature review. In order to contribute to the discussion on the issue, the second part of the paper is devoted to the examination of the Asian case. Furthermore, it analyses both the direct and the indirect role played by the European Union in influencing and enhancing the phenomenon of land-grabbing in Asia. The paper concludes with observations and proposals on the impact of land-grabbing.
    Keywords: Land, Natural resources, Asia, EU, Food security, Energy security, Environment, Public policies.
    JEL: Q15 Q24 Q42 O13 O53 P28
    Date: 2013
  36. By: Hamidov, Ahmad; Khamidov, Mukhamadkhan; Thiel, Andreas
    Abstract: Given the fact that water consumers associations (WCAs) in Uzbekistan were established about a decade ago in a top-down fashion to maintain on-farm water facilities, using fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis tool this paper attempted at determining sets of conditions that are necessary and sufficient to achieve an outcome. The study followed the logic of abductive approach, where sets of theories were adjusted based on the empirical field stint. Institutional economics perspective was applied to identify rural farmers’ behavior in the management of common pool resources (CPRs). The study took place in Bukhara region – southwestern part of Uzbekistan – and involved focus group discussions with members of fifteen WCAs using semi-structured interview format. Three sets of conditions (appropriate chairmanship skills [ACS], proper water allocation [PWA], and effective participatory governance [EPG]) were found to be important for explaining the outcome (improved maintenance of irrigation canals [IMC]). The analysis of necessary conditions indicated that neither condition ACS nor PWA nor EPG is necessary for IMC on its own. The same finding was apparent for the complements of the three conditions, ~ACS, ~PWA, ~EPG. In the meantime, the analysis of necessary conditions for unions of conditions (logical OR) revealed that the terms of PWA OR EPG (i.e. PWA+EPG) is necessary to achieve the outcome. However, their presence is not sufficient. The result for sufficiency analysis highlighted that no single condition alone is sufficient to achieve IMC. The results for combinations of conditions showed that the presence of ACS AND PWA AND EPG (i.e. ACS*PWA*EPG) is sufficient for achieving the outcome, IMC. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that when these conditions are present simultaneously, there is a great chance of improving CPR use within WCA territories.
    Keywords: Uzbekistan, Common pool resources, canal maintenance, institutional analysis, water consumers associations, qualitative comparative analysis, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2013–10–01
  37. By: Jha, Shikha (Asian Development Bank); Kubo, Kensuke (Institute of Developing Economies); Ramaswami, Bharat (Indian Statistical Institute)
    Abstract: In recent years, rising food prices have returned as a concern for policy makers especially in developing countries. In this context, this paper examines how supply shocks, both domestic and foreign, have mattered to imports and consumption in the global rice market over 1960–2010. Such an investigation is important in assessing the role of trade in compensating for domestic shocks. If shortages lead countries to impose trade restrictions, then trade may not be allowed to play an important role in stabilizing consumption. The existing literature has highlighted the importance of these policy shocks in the world rice market and how they have worked to increase the volatility of prices and trade flows. Although trade cannot be expected to play a strong role when the major producing and consuming countries are simultaneously hit by negative yield shocks, such a scenario obtains in only 3% of cases. However, we also find that consumption fails to be stabilized even when domestic shocks are negative and foreign shocks are positive; but imports do peak. Thus, while trade does help in coping with domestic risks, it is unable to achieve full risk sharing. Therefore, no matter what are the foreign shocks, the principal concern is to stabilize consumption when hit by negative domestic yield shocks. The frequency of such shocks is about 12%. This brings into play domestic responses, and we find that domestic stocks have been important in stabilizing consumption. The reliance on domestic policies has in turn kept the rice market thin.
    Keywords: food prices; risk sharing; rice market; international trade; supply shocks
    JEL: F14 Q17
    Date: 2013–08–26
  38. By: Bekchanov, Maksud; Bhaduri, A.; Ringler, C.
    Abstract: Intersectoral and interstate conflicts over the use of limited water and energy resources are aggravating in all arid regions throughout the world, and particularly in the Aral Sea basin of Central Asia. Tremendous expansion of the irrigated areas to produce cotton starting from the 1960s led to a heavy dependence of the economies on irrigated agriculture. Irrigation development reduced environmental flows in the basin and caused a gradual desiccation of the Aral Sea, once the fourth largest lake in the world. The emergence of the five independent Central Asian states in the current territory of the Aral Sea Basin, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, added new challenges for sharing basin resources. The resume of construction of Rogun dam, with a height of more than 300 m and active storage of over 10 km3, by Tajikistan in 2008 in the Vakhsh tributary of the Amu Darya River in upstream of Nurek reservoir led to fierce intergovernmental debates. Tajikistan intends to increase its national energy security and to gradually grow export revenues from electricity generation through this project with a maximum electricity generation capacity of 3600 MW. The country argues that the construction of the dam also increases water availability to downstream regions. In contrast, downstream Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are concerned that inappropriate operation of the reservoirs by the upstream country may substantially harm irrigation benefits that are essential for the livelihoods of the majority of the population in these two countries. Despite many debates and controversial arguments by both parties over the results of the construction of the dam its impact of Rogun Dam on agricultural production and livelihoods in the downstream regions has not been assessed in detail. This study uses an integrated hydro-economic model to address the potential impact of Rogun Dam on downstream water availability and irrigation benefits.
    Keywords: Intersectoral and interstate conflicts, Aral Sea basin of Central Asia, Rogun dam, irrigated agriculture, integrated hydro-economic model, potential impact of Rogun Dam on downstream water availability and irrigation benefits, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, R, Q, O,
    Date: 2013–10–01
  39. By: Ángel Luis González Esteban
    Abstract: This paper summarizes the major issues that make up the paradigm of “food sovereignty”. After a thorough review of the available literature on the websites of organizations related to the movement (Vía Campesina, GRAIN, and Veterinarios sin Fronteras), the paper outlines their key proposals within a broader theoretical context and discusses their joint consistency. The exposition connects with several ongoing debates in agrarian history.
    Keywords: food sovereignty, peasant farming, food crises, agrarian question
    JEL: Q15 Q17 F13 N50
    Date: 2013–10
  40. By: Khakimov, Parviz
    Abstract: The objective of the study is analysing the impact of Tajikistan WTO accession on agricultural sector of Tajikistan. The research questions are: a) How country’s recent WTO accession will influence the agricultural sector of Tajikistan? b) How consumers, producers and state budget will affect under country’s WTO accession? In this paper, all abovementioned research questions are tested under official and ten percent depreciated (experimental) exchange rates.
    Keywords: Tajikistan WTO accession, agricultural sector, partial equilibrium model AGRISIM, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, R, Q, O,
    Date: 2013–10–01
  41. By: Vieider, Ferdinand M.; Truong, Nghi; Martinsson, Peter; Pham Khanh Nam; Martinsson, Peter
    Abstract: We obtain rich measures of risk preferences of poor farmers in Vietnam, and estimate structural models that capture risk preferences over different probability levels and across different domains (gains and losses). The results break radically with the previous literature on risk preferences, in developed and developing countries alike. Far from being particularly risk averse, our Vietnamese farmers are on average risk neutral. At the same time, we find our preference measures to perform well at predicting behavior, from the purchase of lottery tickets to risk management on the farm. We also find strong direct evidence of a risk-income paradox. While risk aversion is strongly decreasing in income within our farmer subject population, our Vietnamese farmers are significantly less risk averse than subjects in Western countries according to measurements obtained using the same decision tasks and procedures. --
    Keywords: risk preferences,development,external validity
    JEL: C93 D03 D80 O12
    Date: 2013
  42. By: (No last name available), Himanshu (Jawaharlal Nehru University)
    Abstract: This paper is an attempt to analyze the impact of two of India’s largest food security interventions—the Public Distribution System (PDS) and the Mid Day Meal Scheme (MDM)—on poverty outcomes and on nutritional intake. This paper offers a simple methodology to take into account the impact of food-based transfers by including the implicit transfers from these schemes along with generating consumption expenditure estimates consistent with the transfers. The preliminary analysis shows the significant impact of the PDS and MDM in terms of poverty reduction and calorie intake. While there are large variations across states, the analysis shows that the schemes have not only improved efficiency in the last 2 decades but have also contributed significantly to poverty reduction. Almost half of the poverty reduction in the distribution-sensitive measures such as the squared poverty gap (SPG) between 2004–2005 and 2009–2010 is explained by the improved efficiency and coverage of these schemes. There is also evidence that the functioning of these schemes, particularly the PDS, has improved in recent years. This is particularly true in states that have followed a universal or quasi-universal coverage along with low cereal prices.
    Keywords: food policy; food security; Mid Day Meal Scheme; poverty; poverty analysis; Public Distribution System
    JEL: I32 I38 Q18
    Date: 2013–08–30
  43. By: Kerr, Suzi (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)
    Abstract: Risk (and often the certainty) of adverse environmental outcomes motivates environmental regulation; other risks also affect welfare outcomes. Economic instruments are one way to reduce environmental risk while maintaining flexibility that helps manage other risks. However regulation not only mitigates risks, it also creates them. While the literature has explored some aspects of risk and economic instruments in great detail, other risks have been largely ignored. Actual and perceived risks are often a barrier to the use of economic instruments so, where they are appropriate, it would be valuable to pay more attention to mitigating risks and demonstrating that they can be mitigated. This note creates a framework for synthesising experience with economic instruments for managing risks relating to water quantity and quality and illustrates it with two New Zealand case studies for which detailed information is available. It also explores some linkages between economic instruments that are not primarily directed at water management – for example emissions trading - and water management outcomes. The surprising outcomes illustrate the importance of context for assessing impact and risk.
    Keywords: water quality; Lake Taupo; Lake Rotorua; economic instruments; risk; policy interaction
    JEL: D81 Q53 Q57
    Date: 2013–11
  44. By: Kuwayama, Yusuke (Resources for the Future); Olmstead, Sheila; Krupnick, Alan (Resources for the Future)
    Abstract: The production of crude oil and natural gas from unconventional reservoirs has become a growth sector within the North American energy industry, and current projections indicate that the production of some of these unconventional fossil fuels will continue accelerating in the foreseeable future. This shift in the energy industry has been accompanied by rising concerns over potential impacts on water resources because producing these fuels is thought to require more water per unit of energy produced than conventional sources and may lead to greater degradation of water quality. In this paper, we address these emerging environmental issues by (a) providing a comprehensive overview of the existing literature on the water quantity and quality implications of producing the main unconventional fossil fuels in North America and (b) characterizing the differences in social costs that arise from the extraction and production of these fuels versus those from conventional fossil fuel production.
    Date: 2013–11–06
  45. By: Jha, Shikha (Asian Development Bank); Kotwal, Ashok (University of British Columbia); Ramaswami, Bharat (Indian Statistical Institute)
    Abstract: Many countries adopted safety net programs to deal with the food crisis of 2008. However, such programs are often beset with targeting errors, inefficiencies, and fraud. Despite this, there is no systematic comparative analysis of safety nets. The objective of this paper is to identify generic issues germane to safety net design and their role in determining success. We examine the performance of safety net programs in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines in terms of people covered, food distributed, and income support provided. These countries spend 1%–3% of their gross domestic product on safety nets—small in relation to developing and industrial economies. We find an across-the-board failure of targeting in the four countries. The reasons range from elite capture, incorrect identification of the poor, their lack of access, barriers to participation, and regional allocation biases. Even if perfect targeting could cover the entire target group and eliminate leakage to nontarget groups, the target groups may not receive the full subsidy due to illegal diversions, operational inefficiencies, and excess costs of public agencies. The success of the safety nets will depend on increasing the participation of the poor and minimizing program waste. Computerization of supply chains to track grain supplies can reduce diversion, and switching from in-kind to cash transfers can cut administrative and other costs of physical handling. The mix of tools would depend upon the economic, political, cultural, and social backgrounds of the country, and its administrative and fiscal capabilities to provide safety net programs.
    Keywords: Conditional and unconditional cash transfers; in-kind transfers; social safety nets; Bangladesh; India; Indonesia; and Philippines
    JEL: D60 I38
    Date: 2013–08–29
  46. By: Cem Oyvat
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of agrarian structures on income inequality over the long run. High land inequality increases income Gini coefficients in the urban sector as well as the rural sector, not only by creating congestion in the urban subsistence sector, but also by feeding the growth of the urban reserve army of labor, which pulls down the wages in the urban capitalist sector. An econometric analysis shows that the impact of initial land ownership distribution on both national and urban income distribution can persist for decades.
    Keywords: distribution, urbanization, informality, development
    JEL: O15 Q15 I24
    Date: 2013
  47. By: Laura Metzger (ETH Zurich); Isabel Günther (ETH Zurich)
    Abstract: Ongoing empirical research on the drivers of project-aid effectiveness relies on World Bank evaluation ratings across heterogeneous aid sectors. This leads to two problems. First, it is difficult to identify which dimension of project performance World Bank evaluation ratings are measuring precisely. Second, only project management variables, which are sector independent, can be included in the analysis. This study concentrating on an analysis of 150 water supply projects enables us to work with a more precise and objective performance measure by defining sector-specific indicators of improved water supply. Moreover, we are able to analyze the impact of project design in addition to project management. We find that evaluation ratings and indicators of improved water supply are positively but weakly correlated. Project management variables have a higher impact on evaluation ratings whereas project design variables have a higher impact on improving water supply to the target group. Various independent variables even change sign if indicators of improved water supply instead of evaluation ratings are chosen as a performance measure of project-aid effectiveness. Taking into account project design in addition to project management and country characteristics considerably increases the share of variation in project performance that can be explained.
    Keywords: Aid effectiveness; evaluation; indicators; water supply
    JEL: F35 O19
    Date: 2013–11–07
  48. By: Ann M. Collins; Ronette Briefel; Jacob Alex Klerman; Gretchen Rowe; Anne Wolf; Christopher W. Logan; Anne Gordon; Carrie Wolfson; Ayesha Enver; Cheryl Owens; Charlotte Cabili; Stephen Bell
    Keywords: SEBTC, Summer Electronic Benefits Transfer for Children, 2012 Implementation, Nutrition
    JEL: I0 I1
    Date: 2013–08–30

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.