|
on Agricultural Economics |
|
Issue of 2013‒10‒11
thirty-two papers chosen by |
| By: | Viaggi, Davide; Bartolini, Fabio; Puddu, Marco; Raggi, Meri |
| Abstract: | Among the different production factors, land is the one that most often limits farm development and one of the most studied. The connection between policy and other context variables and land markets is at the core of the policy debate, including the present reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. The proposal of the latter has been published in October 2011 and in Italy it will include the switch of the payment regime from an historical to a regional basis. The authors’ objective is to simulate the impact of the proposed policy reform on the land market, particularly on land values and propensity to transaction. They combine insights and data from a farm household investment model revised and extended in order to simulate the demand curve for land in different policy scenarios and a survey of farmers stated intention carried out in the province of Bologna (Italy) in 2012. Based on these results, the authors calibrate a mathematical programming model of land market exchanges for the province of Bologna and use this model form simulation. The results of the model largely corroborate the results from the survey and both hint at a relevant reaction of the land demand and supply to the shift from the historical to the regionalised payments. As effect, the regionalisation would result in increased rental prices and in a tendency to the re-allocation of land. |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:fmwppr:166&r=agr |
| By: | Latruffe , Laure; Piet, Laurent; Dupraz, Pierre; Le Mouël, Chantal |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of agricultural land price in several regions in France over the period 1994-2011, using individual plot transaction data, with a particular emphasis on agricultural subsidies and nitrate zoning regulations. It found a positive but relatively small capitalisation effect of the total subsidies per hectare. The data revealed that agricultural subsidies capitalised, at least to some extent, but the magnitude of such a capitalisation depends on the region considered, on the type of subsidy considered, and on the location of the plot in a nitrate surplus zone or not. Only land set-aside premiums significantly capitalise into land price, while single farm payments have a significant positive capitalisation impact only for plots located in a nitrate-surplus zone. |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:fmwppr:163&r=agr |
| By: | Latruffe , Laure; Minvie, Jean Joseph; Salanié, Julien |
| Abstract: | Using data from individual transactions for the period 1994-2010 in the French NUTS2 region Brittany, the authors investigated how environmental regulations and transaction land regulations influence the price of sold plots. Regressions on three sub-samples of buyers were performed in order to assess whether different buyers have different attitudes or plans regarding the farmland purchased: a sub-sample including only farmer-buyers, a sub-sample including non-farmer individual buyers, and a sub-sample including non-farmer non-individual buyers. Estimations were performed ignoring and accounting for spatial interactions (model SARAR). Results indicate that the price of land decreases when buyers are farmers, that the nitrate surplus area zoning increases the price of land, even more so for farmer-buyers. Regarding land transaction regulations, there is a negative effect, on land price, of the purchaser being the current tenant or being the land regulating public body SAFER. Estimating the model on different sub-samples depending on the buyers’ type shed light on the factors that are more important for each buyer. |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:fmwppr:164&r=agr |
| By: | Arild Angelsen; Philippe Delacote |
| Abstract: | Agricultural expansion is the main deforestation driver, while forest degradation is due to non-sustainable poaching and harvesting of forest products. Policies to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) thus focus on agricultural expansion and illegal harvesting. The feedbacks between these two policy instruments are rarely discussed. Does reduced deforestation indirectly decrease or enhance forest degradation? How does better control on illegal harvesting influence deforestation? Using a simple household model, we assess the impact of a Payment for Environmental Services (PES) on both deforestation and illegal harvesting, and the impact of increasing the control on illegal harvesting on deforestation. We show that when land and labor are substitutes, both policies have positive feedbacks and win-win potential. Conversely, when production factors are complements, they have negative feedbacks and need to be taken into account by the public policies. Further, we demonstrate that the production factors can become substitutes if distance costs are high, making a win-win situation more likely. |
| Keywords: | deforestation, REDD, payment for environmental services, agricultural expansion, illegal harvesting, poaching, leakage, synergies |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1311&r=agr |
| By: | Guastella, Giovanni; Moro, Daniele; Sckokai, Paolo; Veneziani, Mario |
| Abstract: | This paper completes the comparative analysis of the investment demand behaviour, of a sample of specialised arable crop farms, for farm buildings and machinery and equipment, as a function of the different types and levels of Common Agricultural Policy support, in selected European Union Member States. This contribution focuses on their quantitative interdependence calculating the relevant elasticity measures. In turn, they constitute the methodological tool to simulate the percentage expected change in average net investment levels associated to the implementation of the, recently proposed and currently under discussion, reductions in the Pillar I Direct Payments disbursed under the Common Agricultural Policy. Evidence suggests a statistically significant elastic and inelastic relationship between both types of subsidies and the investment levels for both asset classes in Germany and Italy, respectively. An elastic dependence of investment in farm buildings on decoupled subsidies exists in Hungary while changes in the level of coupled payments appear to translate into less than proportional changes in the demand for both farm buildings and machinery and equipment in France. Coupled payments appear to influence the UK demand for both asset classes in an elastic manner while decoupled support seems to induce a similar effect on investment in machinery and equipment. Since the currently discussed Common Agricultural Policy reform options imply, almost exclusively, a reduction in the level of support granted through Direct Payments, simulated effects were expected to reveal a worsening of the farm investment prospects for both asset types (i.e., a larger negative investment or a smaller positive one). The actual evidence largely respects this expectation with the sole exception of investment in machinery and equipment in France and Italy reaching smaller negative or larger positive levels irrespectively of the magnitude of the implemented cuts in Direct Payments. |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:fmwppr:168&r=agr |
| By: | Loughrey, Jason; Hennessy,Thia; Hanrahan, Kevin; Donnellan, Trevor; Raimondi, Valentina; Olper, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of the decoupling of farm direct payments upon the off-farm labour supply decisions of farmers in both Ireland and Italy, using panel data from the Farm Business Survey (REA) and FADN database covering the period from 2002 to 2009 to model these decisions. Drawing from the conceptual agricultural household model, the authors hypothesise that the decoupling of direct payments led to an increase in off-farm labour activity despite some competing factors. This hypothesis rests largely upon the argument that the effects of changes in relative wages have dominated other factors. At a micro level, the decoupling-induced decline in the farm wage relative to the non-farm wage ought to have provoked a greater incentive for off-farm labour supply. The main known competing argument is that decoupling introduced a new source of non-labour income i.e. a wealth effect. This may in turn have suppressed or eliminated the likelihood of increased off-farm labour supply for some farmers. For the purposes of comparative analysis, the Italian model utilises the data from the REA database instead of the FADN as the latter has a less than satisfactory coverage of labour issues. Both models are developed at a national level. The paper draws from the literature on female labour supply and uses a sample selection corrected ordinary least squares model to examine both the decisions of off-farm work participation and the decisions regarding the amount of time spent working off-farm. The preliminary results indicate that decoupling has not had a significant impact on off-farm labour supply in the case of Ireland but there appears to be a significantly negative relationship in the Italian case. It still remains the case in both countries that the wealth of the farmer is negatively correlated with the likelihood of off-farm employment. |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:fmwppr:172&r=agr |
| By: | Vincent Gitz (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Alexandre Meybeck (FAO Viale delle terme di Caracalla - FAO Viale delle terme di Caracalla) |
| Abstract: | Following the 2007-2008 food crisis, improvements of world food governance was at the centre of international discussions, leaning towards a new Global Partnership for Agriculture, Food Security and Nutrition. In this process, the issue of the management of various streams of knowledge appeared a central element to allow for better policy coordination, and led to the creation of the High Level Panel of Experts on food security and nutrition (HLPE). Here we describe the genesis and unveil the rationale underneath the creation of this expert process aiming at a better shared understanding of food insecurity of its causes and of potential remedies, and at helping policy-makers to look forward to emerging issues. Drawing lessons from other international expert processes at the interface between expertise and decision-making, we describe the internal rules of the expertise process, as well as the "boundary rules" that frame relations and exchanges between the expert body and decision makers, and show how critical the "fine-tuning" of those rules is not only for the expert process, but also, for the political negotiation platform itself. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866427&r=agr |
| By: | Wen Wang; Frank Koslowski; Dominic Moran; Dali Rani Nayak; Eli Saetnan; Erda Lin; Liping Guo; Guodong Han; Xiaotang Jug |
| Abstract: | China is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions with 7467 million tons (Mt) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2005, with agriculture accounting for 11% of this total. As elsewhere, agricultural emissions mitigation policy in China faces a range of challenges due to the biophysical complexity and heterogeneity of farming systems. Existing research has contributed to improving our understanding of the technical potential of mitigation measures in this sector (i.e. what works). But for policy purposes it is important to convert this into a feasible economic potential, which provides a perspective on whether agricultural emissions reduction (measures) are low cost relative to mitigation measures and overall potential offered in other sectors of the economy. We develop a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) representing the cost of mitigation measures applicable in addition to baseline agricultural practices. The MACC demonstrates that while the sector offers a maximum technical potential of 412 MtCO2e in 2020, a reduction of 154 MtCO2e is potentially available at zero or negative cost (i.e. a cost saving), and 195 MtCO2e (approximately 47% of the total) can be abated at a threshold carbon price = ¥ 100 (approximately £10) per tCO2e. Our findings highlight the important cost-effectiveness of fertilizer best management practices, probiotics additives to animal diets, and animal breeding practices. We outline the assumptions underlying MACC construction and indicate the scientific and socioeconomic barriers to realizing the indicated levels of mitigation. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, climate change, greenhouse gas mitigation, China, marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1310&r=agr |
| By: | Antoine Leblois (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | In the Sudano-Sahelian region, which includes South Niger, the inter-annual variability of the rainy season is high and irrigation is scarce. As a consequence, bad rainy seasons have a massive impact on crop yield and regularly entail food crises. Traditional insurances based on crop damage assessment are not available because of asymmetric information and high transaction costs compared to the value of production. We assess the risk mitigation capacity of an alternative form of insurance which has been implemented in India since 2003 : insurance based on a weather index. We compare the capacity of various weather indices to increase utility of a representative risk-averse farmer. We show the importance of using plot-level yield data rather than village averages, which bias results. We also illustrate the need for out-of-sample estimations in order to avoid overfitting. Even with the appropriate index and assuming a substantial risk aversion, we find a limited gain of implementing insurance, roughly corresponding to, or slightly exceeding, the cost of implementing such insurances observed in India. However, when we treat separately the plots with and without fertilizers, we show that the benefit of insurance is higher in the former case. This suggests that insurances may increase the use of risk-increasing inputs like fertilizers and improved cultivars, hence average yields, which are very low in the region. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866438&r=agr |
| By: | Ciaian, Pavel; Kancs, d'Artis; Pokrivcak, Jan |
| Abstract: | This study, carried out in the context of the Factor Markets research project, investigates the impact of the SAPS (Single Area Payment Scheme) on farmland rental rates in the new EU member states. Using a unique set of farm level panel data with 20,930 observations for 2004 and 2005 we are able to control for important sources of endogeneity. According to our results, the SAPS has a positive and statistically significant impact on land rents in the EU. However, the estimated incidence is smaller than predicted theoretically. Land rents capture only 19 cents of the marginal SAPS euro, and around 10% of the SAPS benefit non-farming landowners through higher farmland rental prices. As the share of rented land is higher in corporate farms than individual ones, family farms benefit more from the SAPS than corporate farms do. |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:fmwppr:170&r=agr |
| By: | Falkowski, Jan |
| Abstract: | While many factors have been studied in relation to the functioning of land markets, the role of land distribution has received relatively little attention. In this paper, we ask to what extent farmers’ propensity to buy land is related to the difference between them and their neighbours in terms of land ownership. To this end, we employ the concept of relative deprivation. Drawing on micro-level data from the transition period in Poland and using both OLS and instrumental variables strategy, we find that interpersonal comparisons with others in one’s reference group may have motivated a farmer’s behaviour in the land market. In particular, the propensity to purchase land is positively associated with experiencing higher relative deprivation. In addition, this relationship waned over time in a predictable manner: late in the transition period it was weaker than at the beginning of the period. |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:fmwppr:171&r=agr |
| By: | Bruno Dorin (CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD], CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Michel Benoit-Cattin (CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD]) |
| Abstract: | This paper questions the Lewis Path perspective of a "world without agriculture" which underpins the "structural transformation" paradigm of "modern growth." It shows that the Lewis Path is only one of four potential structural paths, and that half of the world's population is spiralling into a "Lewis Trap" with more farmers and an increasing income gap between them and other workers. After showing how land constraints and the productivity dynamics outside agriculture might prevent this population from switching to a Lewis Path, it delineates the condition of an alternative path that would not transfer the disparity problem to cities. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866413&r=agr |
| By: | Claire Delpeuch (IEP Paris - Sciences Po Paris - Institut d'études politiques de Paris - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris - PRES Sorbonne Paris Cité - Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques [FNSP]); Antoine Leblois (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Calls for liberalizing cash crop sectors in sub-saharan Africa have been voiced for decades. Yet, the impact of reforms remains elusive in empirical studies. This paper offers new opportunities to solve this problem by creating precise and consistent market organisation indices for 25 African cotton markets from 1961 to 2008. The aggregation of scores reveals interesting trends : markets are not more competitive today than in the late 1990s, 50% of production still originates from markets with fixed prices and reforms are giving rise to a new type of regulated markets with mixed ownership both in East and West Africa. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866412&r=agr |
| By: | Latruffe , Laure; Ay, Jean-Sauveur |
| Abstract: | After reviewing the Present Value Model (PVM), in its basic form and with its major extensions, the authors carried out a literature review on the instrumental uses of farm land prices; namely what land prices may reveal in the framework of the PVM. Urban influence, non-market goods and climate change are topics where the PVM used with applied data may reveal farmers’ or landowners’ beliefs or subjective values, which are discussed in this paper. There is also extensive discussion of the topic of public regulations, and how they may affect land price directly, or through its present value. |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:fmwppr:165&r=agr |
| By: | Nazir, Adnan; Jariko, Ghulam Ali; Junejo, Mumtaz Ali |
| Abstract: | This study was undertaken to identify the factors affecting sugarcane production in Pakistan. Data were collected from 387 sugarcane growers from Sindh, Punjab and NWFP province. Data were collected during the period 2007-08. The study reveals that the costs of inputs of sugarcane i.e. urea, DAP, FYM, land preparation, seed and its application, weeding and cost of irrigation were the important factors which influenced on the returns of sugarcane growers. The effectiveness was examined by using the Cobb-Douglas production function; MVP and allocative efficiency were calculated. The coefficient of multiple determinations R2 was 0.9249, which indicated that 92% variation in the cost of inputs was explained by all explanatory variables and the adjusted R2 was 92%. The F-value was 666.94 and was highly significant at 5% level of significance, indicating that the regression model was well fitted. The high prices of inputs, low price of output, delay in payments and lack of scientific knowledge were the major problems in sugarcane production. In order to enhance the productivity of sugarcane in the country, government should solve the identified problems to increase the income of sugarcane growers. |
| Keywords: | Sugarcane, urea, weeding, cost of irrigation, land preparation, seed, Cobb- Douglas function, resource allocation efficiency. |
| JEL: | Q1 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50359&r=agr |
| By: | Raimondi, Valentina; Curzi, Daniele; Bertoni, Danilo; Olper, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the factors affecting off-farm labour decisions of Italian farm operators. Using micro-level data from the Farm Business Survey (REA) over the pre- and post-2003 CAP reform periods, we investigated the impact that operator, family, farm and market characteristics exert on these choices. Among other things, the paper focuses also on the differential impact of those variables for operators of smaller and larger holdings. The main results suggest that operator and family characteristics have a significant impact on the decision to participate in off-farm work more for smaller than for bigger farms. By contrast, farm characteristics are more relevant variables for bigger farms. In particular, decoupled farm payments, by increasing the marginal productivity of farm labour, lower the probability of working off the farm only in bigger farms, while coupled subsidies in pre-reform years do not have a significant impact on labour decisions. Finally, we show that, after accounting for the standard covariates, local and territorial labour market characteristics generally have a low effect on off-farm work operators’ choices. |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:fmwppr:173&r=agr |
| By: | Sahrbacher, Christoph; Sahrbacher, Amanda; Ostermeyer, Arlette |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impacts of high interest rates for borrowed capital and credit restrictions on the structural development of four European regions. The method used is the model AgriPoliS which is a spatial-dynamic agent-based model. It is able to provide aggregated results at the regional level, but very individual results as well by considering farms as independent entities. Farms can choose between different investment options during the simulation. Several scenarios with different interest rates for borrowed capital on the one hand as well as with different levels of credit restrictions on the other hand are tested and compared. Results show that higher interest rates have less impact on declining production branches than on expanding ones. If they have the possibility farms invest in the most profitable production branch which relative profitability might have changed with high interest rates. Credit restrictions lead farms to choose smaller and cheaper investments than expensive and large ones. Results also show that income losses in both cases due to under-investment compared to the reference situation are partially compensated by lower rental prices. The impacts on structural change also differ depending on the region and the initial situation. In summary, credit subsidies or imperfections on credit markets might have indirect impacts on the type of dominant investment and therefore on the whole regional agricultural sector as well. |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:fmwppr:167&r=agr |
| By: | Petrick, Martin; Kloss, Mathias |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the drivers of productivity in EU agriculture from a factor markets perspective. Using econometrically estimated production elasticities and shadow prices of factors for a set of eight EU member states, we focus on field crop farms represented in the FADN database for the years 2002-08. As it turned out that output reacts most elastically to materials input, we investigate this factor further and find different rationing regimes represented in different member states. Marginal return on materials is low in Denmark and West Germany, but significantly above typical market interest rates in East Germany, Italy and Spain. In the latter countries and in Denmark it also increased towards the end of the observed period. This finding is consistent with a perception of tightening funding access, possibly induced or reinforced by the unfolding financial crisis. Marginal returns to land, labour and fixed capital are generally low. We conclude that the functioning of factor markets plays a crucial role for productivity growth, but that factor market operations display considerable heterogeneity across EU member states. |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:fmwppr:169&r=agr |
| By: | Christian A. L. Hilber (London School of Economics & Spatial Economics Research Centre); Wouter Vermeulen (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis & VU University & Spatial Economics Research Centre) |
| Abstract: | We explore the impact of different types of supply constraints on house prices in England by exploiting a unique panel dataset of 353 local planning authorities ranging from 1974 to 2008. Using exogenous variation from a policy reform, vote shares and historical density to identify the endogenous constraints-measures, we find that: i) Regulatory constraints have a substantive positive impact on the house price-earnings elasticity; ii) The effect of constraints due to scarcity of developable land is largely confined to highly urbanised areas; iii) Uneven topography has a quantitatively less meaningful impact; and iv) The effects of supply constraints are greater during boom than bust periods. |
| Keywords: | House prices, housing supply, supply constraints, land use regulation |
| JEL: | G12 R11 R21 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:2013/6/doc2013-28&r=agr |
| By: | Julie Rozenberg (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Stéphane Hallegatte (METEO-FRANCE - Météo-France - Météo France); Adrien Vogt-Schilb (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Olivier Sassi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Henri Waisman (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | Despite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change, the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically an underworked area. This article uses a global energy-economy model to address the link between future oil supply and climate change and assesses in a common framework both the costs of climate policies and oil scarcity. It shows that, in the context of a limited and uncertain amount of ultimately recoverable oil resources, climate policies reduce the world vulnerability to peak oil. Climate policies, therefore, appear as a hedging strategy against the uncertainty on oil resources, in addition to their main aim of avoiding dangerous climate change. This co-benefit is estimated at the net present value of US$11,500 billion. Eventually, reducing the risk of future economic losses due to oil scarcity may appear as a significant side-benefit of climate policies to many decision-makers. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866449&r=agr |
| By: | Das Gupta, Monica |
| Abstract: | The literature is reviewed on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. While developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, the brunt of the fallout will be borne by the developing world, in lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Carbon emissions in the developed world have leveled off, but are projected to rise rapidly in the developing world due to their economic growth and population growth -- the latter most notably in the poorest countries. Lowering fertility has many benefits for the poorest countries. Studies indicate that, in high fertility settings, fertility decline facilitates economic growth and poverty reduction. It also reduces the pressure on livelihoods, and frees up resources to cope with climate change. And it helps avert some of the projected global warming, which will benefit these countries far more than those that lie at higher latitudes and/or have more resources to cope with climate change. Natural experiments indicate that family planning programs are effective in helping reduce fertility, and that they are highly pro-poor in their impact. While the rest of the world wrestles withthe complexities of reducing emissions, the poorest countries will gain much from simple programs to lower fertility. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Economics,Health Monitoring&Evaluation |
| Date: | 2013–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6631&r=agr |
| By: | Dasgupta, Susmita; Martin, Paul; Samad, Hussain A. |
| Abstract: | Household air pollution is the second leading cause of disease in Madagascar, where more than 99 percent of households rely on solid biomass, such as charcoal, wood, and crop waste, as the main cooking fuel. Only a limited number of studies have looked at the emissions and health consequences of cook stoves in Africa. This paper summarizes an initiative to monitor household air pollution in two towns in Madagascar, with a stratified sample of 154 and 184 households. Concentrations of fine particulate matter and carbon monoxide in each kitchen were monitored three times using UCB Particle Monitors and GasBadge Pro Single Gas Monitors. The average concentrations of both pollutants significantly exceeded World Health Organization guidelines for indoor exposure. A fixed-effect panel regression analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of various factors, including fuel (charcoal, wood, and ethanol), stove (traditional and improved ethanol), kitchen size, ventilation, building materials, and ambient environment. Judging by its effect on fine particulate matter and carbon monoxide, ethanol is significantly cleaner than biomass fuels and, for both pollutants, a larger kitchen significantly improves the quality of household air. Compared with traditional charcoal stoves, improved charcoal stoves were found to have no significant impact on air quality, but the improved wood stove with a chimney was effective in reducing concentrations of carbon monoxide in the kitchen, as was ventilation. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Energy Production and Transportation,Energy and Poverty Alleviation,Health Monitoring&Evaluation |
| Date: | 2013–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6627&r=agr |
| By: | Elmar Kriegler (Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Postdam Institute); Brian-C O'Neill (NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research - National Center for Atmospheric Research); Stéphane Hallegatte (METEO-FRANCE - Météo-France - Météo France); Tom Kram (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency); Richard-H Moss (Joint Global Change Research Institute - Joint Global Change Research Institute); Robert Lempert (RAND Corp - RAND Corp); Thomas J Wilbanks (ORNL - Oak Ridge National Laboratory - US Department of Energy - UI-Battelle) |
| Abstract: | Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. They have been applied for different purposes and to a different degree in various areas of climate change analysis, typically in combination with projections of future climate change. Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) has used them to develop greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios for the 21st century and to investigate strategies for mitigating GHG emissions on a global scale. Analyses of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities (IAV) depend heavily on assumptions about underlying socio-economic developments, but have employed socio-economic scenarios to a lesser degree, due mainly to the multitude of contexts and scales of such analyses. A more consistent use of socio-economic scenarios that would allow an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts remains a major challenge. We assert that the identification of a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways offering scalability to different regional contexts, a reasonable coverage of key socio-economic dimensions and relevant futures, and a sophisticated approach to separating climate policy from counter-factual "no policy" scenarios would be an important step towards meeting this challenge. Such "Shared Socio-economic Pathways" (SSPs) should be specified in an iterative manner and with close collaboration between IAM and IAV researchers to assure coverage of key dimensions, sufficient scalability and widespread adoption. They can be used not only as inputs to analyses, but also to collect the results of different climate change analyses in a matrix defined by two dimensions : climate exposure as characterized by a radiative forcing or temperature level and socio-economic development as classified by the SSPs. For some applications, SSPs may have to be augmented by "Shared Climate Policy Assumptions" (SPAs) capturing global components of climate policies that some studies may require as inputs. Finally, sufficient coverage of the relevant socio-economic dimensions for the analysis of mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts may be assessed by locating the SSPs along the dimensions of challenges to mitigation and to adaptation. We conclude that the development of SSPs, and integrated socio-economic scenarios more broadly, is a useful focal point for collaborative efforts between IAM and IAV researchers. This is likely to be a long-term and iterative enterprise comprising a collection of different activities : periodically taking stock of the evolving scenario work in both research communities, linking up individual efforts, and pursuing collaborative scenario work through appropriate platforms that still need to be established. In the short run, an important goal is to produce tangible outcomes that would allow the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC to take a more integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866437&r=agr |
| By: | Tepper, Alexander (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Borowiecki, Karol Jan (Department of Business and Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a simple dynamic model to examine the breakout from a Malthusian economy to a modern growth regime. It identifies several factors that determine the fastest rate at which the population can grow without engendering declining living standards; this is termed maximum sustainable population growth. We then apply the framework to Britain and find a dramatic increase in sustainable population growth at the time of the Industrial Revolution, well before the beginning of modern levels of income growth. The main contributions to the British breakout were technological improvements and structural change away from agricultural production, while coal, capital, and trade played a minor role. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Revolution; Malthusian Dynamics; Maximum Sustainable Population Growth; Development; Demographics |
| JEL: | N13 N33 O10 O41 O52 |
| Date: | 2013–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2013_014&r=agr |
| By: | Cogneau, Denis; Mesple-Somps, Sandrine; Spielvogel, Gilles |
| Abstract: | Regression discontinuity designs applied to a set of household surveys from the 1980-90s allow to examine whether Cote d'Ivoire's aggregate wealth was translated at the borders of neighboring countries. At the border of Ghana and at the end of the 1980s, large discontinuities are detected for consumption, child stunting, and access to electricity and safe water. Border discontinuities in consumption can be explained by differences in cash crop policies (cocoa and coffee). When these policies converged in the 1990s, the only differences that persisted were those in rural facilities. In the North, cash crop (cotton) income again made a difference for consumption and nutrition (the case of Mali). On the one hand, large differences in welfare can hold at the borders dividing African countries despite their assumed porosity. On the other hand, border discontinuities seem to reflect the impact of reversible public policies rather than intangible institutional traits. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Regional Economic Development,Climate Change Economics,Emerging Markets,Population Policies |
| Date: | 2013–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6626&r=agr |
| By: | Jan Tore Klovland (Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)) |
| Abstract: | This study reports the outcome of an effort to collect market price data for Norway with a view to constructing monthly price indices from the year 1777 to 1920. The material covers data on commodity prices from agriculture, shery, dairying, manufacturing and mining. Indices of the wholesale and producer price index families are constructed, using the repeat sales method for constructing the underlying price series. Separate indices for commodity exports and imports are also presented. The new wholesale price index, as well as the export and import price indices, are linked to existing price indices after 1920 and brought forward to the end of 1940. The price indices shed new light on two great wartime inflationary episodes in Norway: 1807-1817 and 1913-1920. In spite of a 61-fold increase in the price level in the first period and a 4-fold increase in the second, it is found that, after inflation had been brought under control, prices reverted to a level consistent with the purchasing power parity principle. |
| Keywords: | Price index, Price history, Purchasing power parity |
| JEL: | E31 N13 N14 |
| Date: | 2013–10–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bno:worpap:2013_23&r=agr |
| By: | Philippe Delacote; Gabriela Simonet |
| Abstract: | The first phase of the REDD+ mechanism consists of helping countries to improve their capacity to carry out national forest inventories, notably to assess land-use changes and forest carbon stocks and fluxes. However, there might be some links between the funding of this first phase and the quantity of avoided deforestation that will happen during the following phases of REDD+. This paper precisely investigates those links, using a simple two-step, twoplayers, subsidiary-based REDD+ mechanism. |
| Keywords: | REDD+, Readiness, deforestation, forest inventories |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1312&r=agr |
| By: | Akter, Sonia; Mallick, Bishawjit |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical investigation of socio-economic resilience to natural disasters of a tropical cyclone-prone coastal community in Bangladesh. It applies the state-and-transition model, a widely used applied ecology model, to (1) assess the current state of socio-economic resilience to tropical cyclone, (2) identify its drivers and (3) examine its nexus with poverty and socio-economic vulnerability. The results of this study can be summarized into three key findings. First, tropical cyclones had significant negative medium-run impacts on coastal residents’ lives and livelihoods, particularly in terms of income, employment and access to clean water and sanitation. Second, the loss of productive assets, human capital shock, credit constraint and proximity to the forest reserve were the key factors explaining resilience heterogeneity across households. Finally, although the poor were the most vulnerable and suffered from relatively higher economic, physical and structural damage, they exhibited relatively better ability to cope and recover from the shock compared to the non-poor. These findings imply that the increased risk of tropical cyclone is likely to reduce income and standards of living among the tropical coastal communities. However, the burden of these adverse impacts is unlikely to be disproportionally borne by the poorer segment of the society. |
| Keywords: | State-and-transition model, socio-economic vulnerability, socio-economic resilience, natural disasters, tropical cyclone, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | O12 O13 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50375&r=agr |
| By: | Gary D. Libecap |
| Abstract: | Is there a way to understand why some global environmental externalities are addressed effectively whereas others are not? The transaction costs of defining the property rights to mitigation benefits and costs is a useful framework for such analysis. This approach views international cooperation as a contractual process among country leaders to assign those property rights. Leaders cooperate when it serves domestic interests to do so. The demand for property rights comes from those who value and stand to gain from multilateral action. Property rights are supplied by international agreements that specify resource access and use, assign costs and benefits including outlining the size and duration of compensating transfer payments and determining who will pay and who will receive them. Four factors raise the transaction costs of assigning property rights: (i) scientific uncertainty regarding mitigation benefits and costs; (ii) varying preferences and perceptions across heterogeneous populations; (iii) asymmetric information; and (iv) the extent of compliance and new entry. These factors are used to examine the role of transaction costs in the establishment and allocation of property rights to provide globally-valued national parks, implement the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), execute the Montreal Protocol to control emissions that damage the stratospheric ozone layer, set limits on harvest of highly-migratory ocean fish stocks, and control greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). |
| JEL: | D23 D62 H87 N5 Q2 Q3 Q38 Q5 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19501&r=agr |
| By: | Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Antonin Pottier (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech, LPT - Laboratoire de Physique Théorique d'Orsay - CNRS : UMR8627 - Université Paris XI - Paris Sud); Etienne Espagne (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the growth model with environmental constraints recently presented in (Acemoglu et al., 2011) which focuses on the redirection of technical change by climate policies with research subsidies and a carbon tax. First, Acemoglu et al.'s model and chosen parameters yield numerical results that do not support the conclusion that ambitious climate policies can be conducted " without sacrificing (much or any) long-run growth ". Second, they select unrealistic key parameters for carbon sinks and elasticity of substitution. We find that more realistic parameters lead to very different results. Third, the model leads to an unrealistic conclusion when used to analyse endogenous growth, suggesting specification problems. |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866435&r=agr |
| By: | Ananda, Jayanath; Gitto, Simone; Mancuso, Paolo |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive productivity analysis of 53 Australian water service providers during the period 2006-2012. Pressures for sector reform have stimulated interest in identifying and understanding the factors that can contribute to improve the performance of Australian water utilities. The aim is to provide to the policy-makers quantitative-evidences that allow to identify the best interventions, in relation to the alternative forms of ownership that characterize the water utilities in the different territories\states of Australia, to obtain productivity gains. |
| Keywords: | Australian water utilities, DEA, bootstrap, kernel density, ownership |
| JEL: | D24 L95 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50384&r=agr |
| By: | A. Mantovani; C. Vergari |
| Abstract: | In this paper we compare two policy instruments that can be adopted to curb carbon emissions. The first is a conventional pollution tax. The second is an environmental campaign aiming to influence consumers to switch to a green good. We consider two different scenarios. When consumers are characterized by hedonic quality preferences, in this case the pollution tax is more efficient than the campaign. On the contrary, when consumers develop environmental quality preferences, there are cases in which the campaign is preferred. To sum up, while both policy instruments are effective in reducing pollution emissions, their efficiency viewed from a welfare perspective crucially depends on consumers' environmental awareness. |
| JEL: | D62 L13 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp906&r=agr |