New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2013‒03‒09
23 papers chosen by

  1. Russia's food security and climate change: Looking into the future By Kiselev, Sergey; Romashkin, Roman; Nelson, Gerald C.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Palazzo, Amanda
  2. Identifying Factor Productivity from Micro-data: The case of EU agriculture By Petrick, Matin; Kloss, Mathias
  3. Peeing out of poverty? Human fertilizer and the productivity of farming households. By Pettersson, Jan; Wikström, Johan
  4. Agricultural Credit Market Institutions: A Comparison of Selected European Countries By Hedman Jansson, Kristina; Huisman Chelsey, Jo; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan; Rabinowicz, Ewa
  5. The Market for Tractors in the EU: Price Differences and Convergence By Jörgensen, Christian; Persson, Morten
  6. Patterns and Determinants of Off-Farm Migration: Transfer frictions and persistency of relative income gaps By Olper, Alessandro; Raimondi, Valentina; Bertoni, Danilo; Cavicchioli, Daniele
  7. Land Acquisition and Compensation in Singur: What Really Happened? By Ghatak, Maitreesh; Mitra, Sandip; Mookherjee, Dilip; Nath, Anusha
  8. Mass media and public policy : global evidence from agricultural policies By Olper, Alessandro; Swinnen, Johan
  9. The Economic Impact of Alternative Water Pricing Policies in Alentejo Region By Rui Fragoso; Carlos Marques
  10. Price Formation in Consumer Markets By Farm, Ante
  11. Measuring Groundwater Irrigation Efficiency in Pakistan: A DEA Approach Using the Sub-vector and Slack-based Models By Watto, Muhammad Arif; Mugera, Amin William
  12. Value of land use for carbon sequestration: An application to the EU climate policy. By Gren, Ing-Marie Gren; Elofsson, Katarina
  13. Twenty Thousand Sterling Under the Sea: Estimating the value of protecting deep-sea biodiversity By Hanley, Nicholas; Hynes, Stephen; Jobstvogt, Niels; Kenter, Jasper; Witte, Ursula
  14. The Potential Impact of Brazil’s Transportation Efficiencies on World Cotton Trade By Salin, Delmy L.
  15. The Role of the Forest in an Integrated Assessment Model of the Climate and the Economy By Eriksson, Mathilda
  16. Providing Preference-Based Support for Forest Ecosystem Service Management in Poland By Mikołaj Czajkowski; Anna Bartczak; Marek Giergiczny; Stale Navrud; Tomasz Żylicz
  17. Commodity price volatility and tax revenue: Evidence from developing countries. By Ehrhart, H.; Guerineau, S.
  18. How different are safeguards from antidumping ? evidence from us trade policies toward steel By Bown, Chad P.
  19. A Western Reversal since the Neolithic? The long-run impact of early agriculture By Olsson, Ola; Paik, Christopher
  20. Contractual Structure in Agriculture with Endogenous Matching By Ghatak, Maitreesh; Karaivanov, Alexander
  21. On The Influence Of Environmental Factors On Harvest: The French Guiana Shrimp Fishery Paradox By Nicolas Sanz; Bassirou Diop; Fabian Blanchard; Luis Lampert
  22. Do administrators have the same priorities for risk reductions as the general public? By Carlsson, Fredrik; Daruvala, Dinky; Jaldell, Henrik
  23. Some Fallacies in Econometric Modelling of Climate Change By David Hendry; Felix Pretis

  1. By: Kiselev, Sergey; Romashkin, Roman; Nelson, Gerald C.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Palazzo, Amanda
    Abstract: Global climate change presents long-term risks to agriculture. In general, global climate change is expected to positively affect Russian agriculture. In high and middle latitudes, global warming would expand the growing season. Acreages of agricultural crops may expand toward the north, although yields would likely be lower due to less fertile soil. However, in the south there is a possibility of drier climate, which has a negative impact on crop yields and livestock productivity. In addition, climate change is expected to increase the scarcity of water resources and encourage weed and pest proliferation, and it is expected to increase the short-term risks associated with an increase in extreme weather events and natural disasters. This paper uses data on current conditions to simulate future scenarios and examine possible impacts on crop production in the Russian Federation. It also considers adaptive measures for agriculture in response to climate change. --
    Keywords: climate change,agriculture,food security,IMPACT model
    JEL: Q17 Q18 Q24 Q25 Q54
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Petrick, Matin; Kloss, Mathias
    Abstract: The classical problem of agricultural productivity measurement has regained interest owing to recent price hikes in world food markets. At the same time, there is a new methodological debate on the appropriate identification strategies for addressing endogeneity and collinearity problems in production function estimation. We examine the plausibility of four established and innovative identification strategies for the case of agriculture and test a set of related estimators using farmlevel panel datasets from seven EU countries. The newly suggested control function and dynamic panel approaches provide attractive conceptual improvements over the received ‘within’ and duality models. Even so, empirical implementation of the conceptual sophistications built into these estimators does not always live up to expectations. This is particularly true for the dynamic panel estimator, which mostly failed to identify reasonable elasticities for the (quasi-) fixed factors. Less demanding proxy approaches represent an interesting alternative for agricultural applications. In our EU sample, we find very low shadow prices for labour, land and fixed capital across countries. The production elasticity of materials is high, so improving the availability of working capital is the most promising way to increase agricultural productivity.
    Date: 2013–01
  3. By: Pettersson, Jan (Department of Economics); Wikström, Johan (Statistics Sweden)
    Abstract: In many parts of the world, soils poor in nutrients are farmed with little addition of fertilizer, further depleting the farmland. The very same farmers often face poor sanitary solutions. So-called ecological sanitation aims at providing sanitation and at recycling nutrients as fertilizer. This human fertilizer may act as a substitute for artificial fertilizers (improving the household budget) or as a complement (improving soil quality, increasing agricultural yields). We collected demographic, economic and farming data from 618 households in southern Mali, of which 155 benefitted from an ecological sanitation investment program. We do not find any support for human fertilizer being used complementary, although the effect on yields varies over crops. Instead, we find that beneficiary households substitute artificial fertilizer with human fertilizer at 10 to 15 per cent of the average household use of artificial fertilizers. While our results imply small economic incentives at the household level for investing in ecological sanitation, we do not account for health effects at the household or community level.
    Keywords: Household Productivity; Ecological Sanitation; UDDT; Mali; Fertilizer; Matching
    JEL: D13 O12 O13 Q12
    Date: 2013–01–04
  4. By: Hedman Jansson, Kristina; Huisman Chelsey, Jo; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan; Rabinowicz, Ewa
    Abstract: In this paper, we describe and compare the institutional framework of the agricultural credit markets in selected European countries. The institutions can be both formal (rules, regulations, authorities and actors) and informal (norms, values and relations). They also interact and in a situation where the formal institutions are weak, the informal ones increase in importance. The study is based on a questionnaire sent to agricultural financial experts in selected countries. The case studies show that credit regulations are typically general, with no specific regulations for the agricultural credit market. On the other hand, several countries support agricultural credit in various forms, implying that the governments do not perceive the general credit market to function in the case of agricultural firms. In a risk assessment, the most frequent reasons for rejecting a loan application are all linked to economic performance and the situation of the farmer. Personal characteristics, such as educational level or lack of experience, were generally perceived as less influential. Another interesting point when it comes to risk assessment is that in some countries the importance of asset-based lending compared with cash flow-based lending seems to differ when concerning a first-time applicant and when there is an application to extend a loan. To get an idea of the availability of credit, the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio was calculated, and it showed remarkably low values for Poland and Slovakia. For all the countries, the calculated value was lower than what the financial experts would have expected. This might imply credit rationing in agriculture in some of the countries studied. At the same time, the financial experts all judged the possibility of an agricultural firm obtaining a loan as higher than that for other small rural firms, implying that the latter are also credit-rationed.
    Date: 2013–01
  5. By: Jörgensen, Christian; Persson, Morten
    Abstract: This study evaluates the degree of segmentation of the market for agricultural machinery and equipment in the EU. We focus on agricultural tractors, the most common and biggest investment in machinery and equipment in the agricultural sector. By using country price data for individual tractor models, we test the law of one price, i.e. the existence of a common price for tractors across EU member states. We find that significant price differences exist, yet unlike most other studies we find that large price deviations are penalised within a short time. The study also shows that transport costs are an important source of price differences, as domestic production leads to lower prices on the domestic market and as price convergence is negatively correlated with distance. Finally, price differences should not solely be understood from a geographical perspective, as evidence supports the idea that farmers’ buying power is significant in explaining price differences within countries.
    Date: 2013–01
  6. By: Olper, Alessandro; Raimondi, Valentina; Bertoni, Danilo; Cavicchioli, Daniele
    Abstract: The inter-sectoral migration of agricultural labour is a complex but fundamental process of economic development largely affected by the growth of agricultural productivity and the evolution of the agricultural relative income gap. Theory and some recent anecdotal evidence suggest that as an effect of large fixed and sunk costs of out-farm migration, the productivity gap between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors should behave non-monotonically or following a U-shaped evolution during economic development. Whether or not this relationship holds true across a sample of 38 developing and developed countries and across more than 200 EU regions was empirically tested. Results strongly confirm this relationship, which also emphasises the role played by national agricultural policy.
    Date: 2013–01
  7. By: Ghatak, Maitreesh (London School of Economics); Mitra, Sandip (Indian Statistical Institute); Mookherjee, Dilip (Boston University); Nath, Anusha (Boston University)
    Abstract: This paper reports results of a household survey in Singur, West Bengal concerning compensation offered by the state government to owners of land acquired to make way for a car factory. While on average compensations o.ered were close to the reported market valuations of land, owners of high grade multi-cropped (Sona) lands were undercompensated, which balanced over-compensation of low grade mono-cropped (Sali) lands. This occurred owing to misclassification of most Sona land as Sali land in the official land records. Under-compensation relative to market values significantly raised the chance of compensation offers being rejected by owners. There is considerable evidence of the role of financial considerations in rejection decisions. Land acquisition significantly reduced incomes of owner cultivator and tenant households, despite their efforts to increase incomes from other sources. Agricultural workers were more adversely affected relative to non-agricultural workers, while the average impact on workers as a whole was insignificant. Adverse wealth effects associated with under-compensation significantly lowered household accumulation of consumer durables, while effects on other assets were not perceptible. Most households expressed preferences for non-cash forms of compensation, with diverse preferences across different forms of non-cash compensation depending on occupation and time preferences.
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Olper, Alessandro; Swinnen, Johan
    Abstract: Mass media play a crucial role in information distribution and in the political market and public policy making. Theory predicts that information provided by the mass media reflects the media's incentives to provide news to different groups in society and affects these groups'influence in policy making. The paper use data on agricultural policy from 69 countries spanning a wide range of development stages and media markets to test these predictions. The empirical results are consistent with theoretical hypotheses that public support for agriculture is affected by the mass media. In particular, an increase in media (television) diffusion is associated with policies that benefit the majority to a greater extent and is correlated with a reduction in agriculture taxation in poor countries and a reduction in the subsidization of agriculture in rich countries, ceteris paribus. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis that increased competition in commercial media reduces transfers to special interest groups and contributes to more efficient public policies.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Language&Communication,Labor Policies
    Date: 2013–02–01
  9. By: Rui Fragoso (Universidade de Évora, CEFAGE-UE and ICAAM); Carlos Marques (Universidade de Évora, CEFAGE-UE and ICAAM)
    Abstract: Considering the important role of irrigation in the socio-economic development of the Alentejo region in Portugal, this paper aims to assess the economic impact of water pricing in the context of the public irrigation perimeter of Odivelas in that region. The methodological framework uses the estimation of programming models based on optimality conditions as an alternative to the Positive Mathematical Programming approach. The model parameters were estimated using the entropy approach and information priors. The model was formulated on the aggregated scale of the irrigated perimeter, considering the main regional irrigated crops as well as land, labour, capital and water resources.
    Keywords: Estimation; Entropy; Positive Mathematical Programming; Water management.
    JEL: Q10 Q25
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Farm, Ante (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: .
    Keywords: Pricing; oligopoly; price leadership; market shares; marketing
    Date: 2013–02–05
  11. By: Watto, Muhammad Arif; Mugera, Amin William
    Abstract: We estimate the efficiency of groundwater use in cotton production in the Punjab province of Pakistan. We use a survey data of 189 cotton producers comprising 98 tube-well owners and 91 water buyers in order to get the differential impact of tube-well ownership on groundwater use efficiency. We use data envelopment analysis to compute the technical, scale, cost and allocative efficiencies for tube-well owners and water buyers relative to a meta-frontier and groupfrontiers. The DEA sub-vector and slack-based models are used to compute groundwater use efficiency. The results indicate low levels of technical inefficiencies with water buyers being more inefficient relative to tube-well owners. However, groundwater use inefficiency is more pronounced than the respective technical efficiency. The sub-vector and slack-based estimates are highly correlated suggesting the robustness of the results. The results on returns to scale indicate that the majority of cotton growers are operating at increasing returns to scale, suggesting that efficiency can be improved by expanding the scale of operation. We use a second-stage bootstrap truncated regression to investigate the factors that influence technical efficiency and groundwater use efficiency. We find that the level of education, seed quality and extension services have positive significant impacts on technical and groundwater use efficiency. We suggest that knowledge of crop water requirements and the use of improved crop varieties can play role in improving the efficiency of groundwater use.
    Keywords: Pakistan, groundwater use efficiency, groundwater markets, technical efficiency, DEA, sub-vector, slack-based model, meta-frontier, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Q15, Q25, D24,
    Date: 2013–01–06
  12. By: Gren, Ing-Marie Gren (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Elofsson, Katarina (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)
    Abstract: This paper applies the replacement cost method for calculating the value of stochastic carbon sequestration in the EU climate policy for mitigating carbon dioxide emissions. Minimum costs with and without carbon sequestrations are then derived with a safety-first approach in a chance-constrained framework for two different scenarios; one with the current system for emission trading in combination with national allocation plans and one with a hypothetical system where all sectors trade. The theoretical results show that i) the value of carbon sequestration approaches zero for a high enough risk discount, ii) relatively low abatement cost in the trading sector curbs supply of permits on the ETS market, and iii) large abatement costs in the trading sector create values from carbon sequestration for meeting national targets. The empirical application to the EU commitment of 20% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions shows large variation in carbon sequestration value depending on risk discount and on institutional set up. Under no uncertainty, the value can correspond to approximately 0.45% of total GDP in EU under current policy system, but it is reduced to one third if all sectors are allowed to trade. The value declines drastically under conditions of uncertainty and approaches zero for high probabilities in achieving targets. The allocation of value among countries depends on scenario; under the current system countries make gains from reduced costs of meeting national targets, under a sector-wide trading scheme buyers of permits gain from reductions in permit price and sellers make associated losses.
    Keywords: carbon sequestration value; replacement cost method; uncertainty; safety-first; chance-constrained programming; EU emission target
    JEL: C61 D81 Q40 Q48 Q50
    Date: 2013–02–18
  13. By: Hanley, Nicholas; Hynes, Stephen; Jobstvogt, Niels; Kenter, Jasper; Witte, Ursula
    Abstract: The deep-sea includes over 90% of the world oceans and is thought to be one of the most diverse ecosystems in the World. It supplies society with valuable ecosystem services, including the provision of food, the regeneration of nutrients and the sequestration of carbon. Technological advancements in the second half of the 20th century made large-scale exploitation of mineral-, hydrocarbon- and fish resources possible. These economic activities, combined with climate change impacts, constitute a considerable threat to deep-sea biodiversity. Many governments, including that of the UK, have therefore decided to implement additional protected areas in their waters of national jurisdiction. To support the decision process and to improve our understanding for the acceptance of marine conservation plans across the general public, a choice experiment survey asked Scottish households for their willingness-to-pay for additional marine protected areas in the Scottish deep-sea. This study is one of the first to use valuation methodologies to investigate public preferences for the protection of deep-sea ecosystems. The experiment focused on the elicitation of economic values for two aspects of biodiversity: (i) the existence value for deep-sea species and (ii) the option-use value of deep-sea organisms as a source for future medicinal products.
    Keywords: existence value; option-use value; choice experiment; Deep-sea biodive rsity
    Date: 2013
  14. By: Salin, Delmy L.
    Abstract: This paper is a summary of: Rafael de Farias Costa, C. Parr Rosson, III, and Flynn J. Adcock, Transportation Infrastructure in Brazil: Impacts and Implications for Global Cotton Trade, Texas A&M, CNAS 2012-0. May 2012. Web. < Publications/Brazil Cotton Transportation Report June 2012.pdf> Brazil is the third largest cotton exporter after the United States and Uzbekistan. Cotton production in Brazil expanded from 2 million bales in the late 1990s to about 9.3 million bales in 2011. In 2007, Brazil began a comprehensive logistical investment plan to increase competitiveness in the world agricultural market. To increase transportation efficiencies, the Brazilian Government wants to reduce export route distances and port congestion by shifting exports from the southern ports to the north and northeast port regions. Texas AgriLIFE Research scientists estimated the impact of Brazil improvements in transportation infrastructure on cotton production, prices, and exports. Transportation costs for different regions within Brazil were estimated to reflect movements from mill to port. An origin-destination matrix of the Brazilian cotton industry that tracks cotton flows within the country was developed and validated. Findings indicate that a 2- to 3-percent transportation cost reduction would not have a significant impact on the world cotton trade. However, the United States may benefit slightly Brazil main cotton export routes from a 2-percent cost reduction, increasing exports by 640 bales, raising prices 2 cents a bale, and growing revenue by $457,900. If transportation costs drop by 10 percent, Brazilian exports could increase by 64,830 bales, raising prices by $3.61 per bale and increasing revenue by $27.8 million. India and the United States might lose market share. U.S. losses could include 4,490 fewer bales exported at a price of $0.28 less per bale and lower cotton export revenues of $5.7 million.
    Keywords: cotton, trade, shipping, export, Brazil, transportation, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade, Marketing,
    Date: 2013–01
  15. By: Eriksson, Mathilda (CERE, Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics)
    Abstract: This paper develops a model to evaluate then potential role of the global forest as an option to reduce climate change. The approach is to assess the forest as both a source of renewable energy and a potential storage of carbon together with non-carbon energy. The analysis shows that the global forest plays a signicant part in the carbon cycle and should be used together with non-carbon energy strategies. The tropical forest carbon storage proves to be especially important and the emphasis is to enlarge the growing stock, rather than increase the use of forest bioenergy. The positive dynamic eects of increasing bioenergy harvest is too weak to overpower the instant and future benets of increasing the growing forest biomass. Reducing tropical deforestation in the near future proves to be important for reducing climate change.
    Keywords: Integrated Assessment Models; Forest
    JEL: Q23 Q54
    Date: 2013–02–12
  16. By: Mikołaj Czajkowski (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Anna Bartczak (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Marek Giergiczny (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Stale Navrud (Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Tomasz Żylicz (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: The paper looks at people’s preferences for the changes in selected ecosystem services resulting from new management strategies of forest areas in Poland. It applies a generalized multinomial logit (G-MNL) model to interpret the results of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) study administered to a representative sample of 1001 Poles. The questionnaire included three physical attributes, namely: protecting the most ecologically valuable forest ecosystems, reducing litter in forests, and improving recreation infrastructure. The selection of these attributes was motivated by extensive qualitative research of what indicators of biodiversity, nature protection and recreation possibilities people are the most sensitive to. The fourth attribute was monetary – additional cost of the new programs which would have to be financed out of increased taxes. The results allowed for a robust estimation of implicit prices of the choice attributes and calculating welfare measures of specific forest management scenarios. In addition, the study revealed interesting connections between respondents’ current forest recreation patterns and the importance they place on different attributes of forests. The results make it possible to utilize respondents’ preference heterogeneity, to a large extent determined by their current recreational use patterns, in designing future forest management strategies.
    Keywords: biodiversity, forest recreation, discrete choice modeling, generalized multinomial logit model
    JEL: D12 H44 Q23 Q26 Q51
    Date: 2013
  17. By: Ehrhart, H.; Guerineau, S.
    Abstract: In this paper we assess the impact of commodity price volatility on tax revenues, while existing works were concentrated on its effect on economic growth. Our empirical analysis is carried out on 80 developing countries over 1980-2008. We compute country-specific indices which measure the volatility of the international price of 41 commodities in the sectors of agriculture, minerals and energy. We find robust evidence that tax revenues in developing countries are hurt by the volatility of commodity prices. More specifically, the volatility of import prices decreases revenues from international trade tax while the volatility of export prices reduces revenues from income tax. We also show that this negative effect on tax revenues is not homogenous between countries. First, the export price volatility impact is negative except for oil exporters for whom it is null. Second, the magnitude of the negative impact of import price volatility on tax revenues depends on the tariff structure, i.e. is greater in countries where tariff dispersion is high.
    Keywords: Price Volatility, Tax revenues, Commodities, Developing economies.
    JEL: E62 O13 F10
    Date: 2013
  18. By: Bown, Chad P.
    Abstract: Use of temporary trade barriers has proliferated across countries, industries, and even policy instruments. This paper constructs a panel of bilateral, product-level United States steel imports that are matched to a unique data set on trade policy exclusions that are associated with the 2002 United States steel safeguard in order to compare the trade impacts that result from application of various temporary trade barrier policies over 1989-2003. The analysis finds that the trade effects of an applied safeguard -- which is statutorily expected to follow the principle of nondiscriminatory treatment -- can nevertheless compare closely with the application of the explicitly discriminatory antidumping policy. The results on trade policy substitutability complement other recent research on these increasingly important forms of import protection.
    Keywords: Free Trade,Trade Policy,Water and Industry,Trade Law,Markets and Market Access
    Date: 2013–03–01
  19. By: Olsson, Ola (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Paik, Christopher (New York University)
    Abstract: While it is widely believed that regions which experienced a transition to Neolithic agriculture early also become institutionally and conomically more advanced, many indicators suggest that within the Western agricultural core (including Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia), communities that adopted agriculture early in fact have weaker institutions and poorly functioning economies today. In the current paper, we attempt to integrate both of these trends in a coherent historical framework. Our main argument is that countries that made the transition early also tended to develop autocratic societies with social inequality and pervasive rent seeking, whereas later adopters were more likely to have egalitarian societies with stronger private property rights. These di¤erent institutional trajectories implied a gradual shift of dominance from the early civilizations towards regions in the periphery. We document this relative reversal within the Western core by showing a robust negative correlation between years since transition to agriculture and contemporary levels of income and institutional development, on both the national and the regional level. Our results further indicate that the reversal had become manifest already before the era of European colonization.<p>
    Keywords: Neolithic agriculture; comparative development
    JEL: N50 O43
    Date: 2013–01–25
  20. By: Ghatak, Maitreesh (London School of Economics); Karaivanov, Alexander (Simon Fraser University)
    Abstract: We analyze optimal contractual forms and equilibrium matching in a double-sided moral hazard model of sharecropping similar to Eswaran and Kotwal (1985). We show that, with endogenous matching, the presence of moral hazard can reverse the matching pattern relative to the first best, and that even if sharecropping is optimal for an exogenously given pair of agent skills, it may not be observed in equilibrium with endogenous matching. The economy with endogenous matching features less sharecropping compared to an economy with agent skills drawn at random from the same distribution. This suggests that studies of agency costs in sharecropping may underestimate their extent if focusing only on the intensive margin and ignoring the extensive margin.
    Keywords: tenancy; sharecropping; endogenous matching
    Date: 2013
  21. By: Nicolas Sanz (CEREGMIA, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane); Bassirou Diop (CEREGMIA, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane); Fabian Blanchard (Ifremer, Unité Biodiversité Halieutique de Guyane); Luis Lampert (Ifremer, Unité Biodiversité Halieutique de Guyane)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the environmental nature of the French Guiana shrimp fishery dynamics through an empirical analysis. In order to do so, we specify a global harvest production function, in which output depends on the number of days at sea and the stock level. In addition, we use some environmental variables representing the "El Niño" and "la Niña" phenomena, the sea surface temperature, and the flow of some amazonian rivers as instruments. This method enables us to correct the well known simultaneaous bias between the harvest and the stock levels and to show that harvest is significantly dependant on the environmental factors analyzed, which may compromise the future of the French Guiana shrimp fishery in the context of climate change.
    Date: 2013–02
  22. By: Carlsson, Fredrik (University of Gothenburg); Daruvala, Dinky (Dept. of Economics); Jaldell, Henrik (Dept. of Economics)
    Abstract: A stated preference survey was used to investigate the potential discrepancy between the priorities of public administrators and the general public regarding risk reductions. Both groups of respondents were asked to assume the role of a public policy-maker and choose between different public safety projects. We investigate differences in three areas: (i) large vs. small accidents, (ii) actual vs. subjective risk, and (iii) the trade-off between avoiding fatalities and serious injuries for different age groups and accidents. We find only minor differences between the responses of administrators and the general public, the most important of which is the difference in priorities between reducing the risk of many small or one large accident. In this area the most common response from the general public is that they prefer avoiding many small accidents rather than one large accident while among the administrators there is almost an equal split between the two options.
    Keywords: accidents; risk; policy making; stated preference
    JEL: D61 I18
    Date: 2013–02–20
  23. By: David Hendry; Felix Pretis
    Abstract: We demonstrate major flaws in the statistical analysis of Beenstock, Reingewertz and Paldor (2012), discrediting their initial claims as to the different degrees integrability of CO2 and temperature.
    Keywords: Econometric modelling, location shifts, data measurements, climate change
    JEL: C1 Q5
    Date: 2013–02–08

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