nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2013‒03‒02
twenty papers chosen by
Angelo Zago
University of Verona

  1. South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures By Dube, Sikhalazo; Scholes, Robert J.; Nelson, Gerald C.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Palazzo, Amanda
  2. Estimating the Constraints to Agricultural Trade of Developing Countries By Evdokia Moïsé; Claire Delpeuch; Silvia Sorescu; Novella Bottini; Arthur Foch
  3. Gender and agriculture : inefficiencies, segregation, and low productivity traps By Croppenstedt, Andre; Goldstein, Markus; Rosas, Nina
  4. Impact of Third-Party Enforcement of Contracts in Agricultural Markets - A Field Experiment in Vietnam By Saenger, Christoph; Torero, Maximo; Qaim, Matin
  5. The Prevalence of Poverty and Inequality in South Sudan: The Case of Renk County By Ahmed, Adam; Roghim, Somaia; Saleh, Ali; Siddig, Khalid H.A.
  6. UK Households' Carbon Footprint: A Comparison of the Association between Household Characteristics and Emissions from Home Energy, Transport and Other Goods and Services By Buchs, Milena; Schnepf, Sylke V.
  7. Economic Importance of the Iowa Egg Industry By Otto, Daniel; Ibarburu, Maro; Schulz, Lee L.
  8. Application of the binary Propensity Score Matching methodology to evaluation of EU Rural Development programmes – a micro-level approach. By Jerzy Michalek
  9. Weight calculations for panel surveys with sub-sampling and split-off tracking By Himelein, Kristen
  10. A New Zealand Regional Housing Model By Arthur Grimes; Sean Hyland; Andrew Coleman; James Kerr; Alex Collier
  11. What does variation in survey design reveal about the nature of measurement errors in household consumption ? By Gibson, John; Beegle, Kathleen; De Weerdt, Joachim; Friedman, Jed
  12. Big Constraints or Small Returns? Explaining Nonadoption of Hybrid Maize in Tanzania By Kathage, Jonas; Qaim, Matin; Kassie, Menale; Shiferaw, Bekele A.
  13. Does a wife's bargaining power provide more micronutrients to females : evidence from rural Bangladesh By Rahman, Aminur
  14. A BEHAVIOUR-BASED APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF POVERTY IN INDIA By Ingvild Almas; Anders Kjelsrud; Rohini Somanathan
  15. Non-Tariff Measures with Market Imperfections: Trade and Welfare Implications By Beghin, John C.
  16. What's the Option? By Traeger, Christian
  17. Women: Walking and Waiting for Water The Time Value of Public Water Supply By Elena Gross; Isabel Günther; Youdi Schipper
  18. "Sugar Policy Reform, Tax Policy and Price Transmission in the Soft Drink Industry" By Bonnet, Céline; Réquillart, Vincent
  19. Consumer preferences, aquaculture technology and the sustainability of fisheries By Esther Regnier; Katheline Schubert
  20. Robust viable management of a harvested ecosystem model By Esther Regnier; Michel De Lara

  1. By: Dube, Sikhalazo; Scholes, Robert J.; Nelson, Gerald C.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Palazzo, Amanda
    Abstract: The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and priced for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM runs were those undertaken for the IPCC fourth assessment report. They show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to overall slight drying. The future crop yields were simulated using the DSSAT crop model suite. The planted area, commodity prices and net exports were simulated using the IMPACT global food trade model. The results indicate slightly rising to stable yields per unit area up to 2050, despite climate change, largely due to the inbuilt assumption of ongoing agronomic and genetic improvements. The planted area remains fairly constant in both location and size. As a result of increasing food demand, net exports decline (i.e. imports increase) substantially, and so do prices due to simultaneous increases in global demand. The effects on food security in South Africa, measured as average calorific intake per person and malnutrition in children under the age of five, depends more on the assumptions regarding population and GDP growth than on climate change, since the study assumes that local shortages will be balanced by increased imports, if they are affordable. Thus the vulnerability to food insecurity at family and national level increases in the future under all but the most optimistic development scenarios, and is exacerbated by climate change, especially through global-scale, market-related mechanisms. Policies to increase local agricultural production, decrease its climate sensitivity and facilitate access to international markets are indicated, along with efforts to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. --
    Keywords: climate change,crop production,scenarios,food security,futures,modeling
    JEL: Q55 Q18
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Evdokia Moïsé; Claire Delpeuch; Silvia Sorescu; Novella Bottini; Arthur Foch
    Abstract: Agricultural trade is widely considered as an important contributor to developing countries‘ economic growth, poverty alleviation and food security. This report identifies and analyses some of the most important supply-side constraints to developing countries‘ exports of agricultural products, in order to inform prioritisation and sequencing of domestic policy reforms as well as targeting of donor interventions. The analysis is supplemented by case studies of Aid for Trade programmes supporting agricultural trade expansion in Indonesia, Zambia and Mozambique. The report confirms that developing countries‘ agricultural exports are highly responsive to the quality of transport and trade-related infrastructure, while tariffs still have a significant negative impact. The analysis also highlights the importance of complementary policies such as education and political stability on developing countries‘ agricultural trade performance. In the poorest countries of the sample, significant trade expansion could be achieved by easing constraints related to governance and infrastructure quality, as well as by lifting constraints related to the efficient use of existing freshwater resources. The case studies illustrate the impact on agricultural exports of constraints related to standards and conformity assessment or access to credit, in particular as regards small and medium agricultural producers, processors and traders. They also show the contribution of donor supported programmes promoting private sector initiatives to poverty reduction through increased employment and the promotion of production adapted to local endowments.
    Keywords: developing countries, agricultural trade, poverty reduction, aid for trade, trade expansion, food security, binding constraints
    JEL: F13 O13 O19 Q17
    Date: 2013–01–31
  3. By: Croppenstedt, Andre; Goldstein, Markus; Rosas, Nina
    Abstract: Women make essential contributions to agriculture in developing countries, where they constitute approximately 43 percent of the agricultural labor force. However, female farmers typically have lower output per unit of land and are much less likely to be active in commercial farming than their male counterparts. These gender differences in land productivity and participation between male and female farmers are due to gender differences in access to inputs, resources, and services. In this paper, the authors review the evidence on productivity differences and access to resources. They discuss some of the reasons for these differences, such as differences in property rights, education, control over resources (e.g., land), access to inputs and services (e.g., fertilizer, extension, and credit), and social norms. Although women are less active in commercial farming and are largely excluded from contract farming, they often provide the bulk of wage labor in the nontraditional export sector. In general, gender gaps do not appear to fall systematically with growth, and they appear to rise with GDP per capita and with greater access to resources and inputs. Active policies that support women's access and participation, not just greater overall access, are essential if these gaps are to be closed. The gains in terms of greater productivity of land and overall production are likely to be large.
    Keywords: Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Gender and Health,Gender and Law,Gender and Development,Anthropology
    Date: 2013–02–01
  4. By: Saenger, Christoph; Torero, Maximo; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: We study the effect of alleviating information asymmetry regarding product quality that is widespread in developing-country agricultural markets. Opportunistic buyers may underreport quality levels back to farmers to reduce the price they have to pay. In response, farmers may curb investment, negatively affecting farm productivity. In an experiment, we entitle randomly selected smallholder dairy farmers in Vietnam to independently verify milk testing results. Treatment farmers use 13 percent more inputs and also increase their output. We show that the buying company had initially not underreported product quality, which is why third-party monitoring led to a Pareto improvement in the supply chain.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Industrial Organization, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, Livestock Production/Industries, C93, D86, L14, O13, Q12, Q13,
    Date: 2013–01
  5. By: Ahmed, Adam; Roghim, Somaia; Saleh, Ali; Siddig, Khalid H.A.
    Abstract: In this study we use a comprehensive household income and expenditure survey with a sample of 245 respondents representing urban and rural households in the Renk County of South Sudan to assess the prevalence of poverty and inequality in the study area. We used the cost of basic needs; to establish both food poverty line and Poverty line; estimated poverty incidence, gap and severity; and estimated different equality measures. Major results show that 87% and 73% of the urban and rural households respectively fall below our calculated poverty lines. The estimated Gini coefficient was 18% and 20% for urban and rural households, respectively. Results of other equality measures show higher inequality between the poorest and richest segments of households as the richest quintile among urban households consumes 5 times that of the poorest, while that of the rural households consumes 4 4 folds the poorest quintile.
    Keywords: Poverty, Inequality, South Sudan., Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Production Economics, D6, I3, P4, Q12.,
    Date: 2013–01–27
  6. By: Buchs, Milena (University of Southampton); Schnepf, Sylke V. (University of Southampton)
    Abstract: Does the association between household characteristics and household CO2 emissions differ for different areas such as home energy, transport, indirect and total emissions in the UK? Specific types of households might be more likely to have high emissions in some areas than in others and thus be affected differently by climate mitigation policies that target these areas. Using the Living Costs and Food Survey and Expenditure and Food Survey for the years 2006 to 2009, this paper compares how household characteristics like income, household size, rural/urban location and education level differ in their association with home energy, transport, indirect and total emissions. We find that the association between household characteristics and emissions differs considerably across these areas, particularly for income, education, the presence of children, female headed, workless and rural households. We also test the implicit assumption in the literature that the association between household characteristics and CO2 emission is constant across the CO2 emission distribution using quantile regressions and compare results for poor and rich households. The analysis considers policy implications of these findings throughout.
    Keywords: climate change mitigation policies, inequality, carbon dioxide emissions, living costs and food survey, United Kingdom
    JEL: D12 D31 D60 H20 Q01
    Date: 2013–02
  7. By: Otto, Daniel; Ibarburu, Maro; Schulz, Lee L.
    Abstract: Iowa leads the nation in egg production, producing more than the second and third largest states combined. The United States Department of Agriculture estimates that approximately 52.9 million layers in Iowa produced 14.5 billion eggs in 2011. This level of production consumes 49.2 million bushels of corn and 452,200 tons of soybean meal to feed the layers and 4.2 million bushels of corn and 38,500 tons of soybean meal to feed the growing pullets. In addition, the egg industry is an important value-added activity in Iowa, directly employing an estimated 3,700 hatchery, production, and processing workers in 2011 and generating over $156 million in direct payroll. The multiplier impacts on the Iowa economy are even more impressive, with total labor income of $424 million, nearly 7,960 total jobs, and an economic boost of $657 million.
    Date: 2013–01–11
  8. By: Jerzy Michalek (European Commission – JRC - IPTS)
    Abstract: The main objective of this study is to show how various micro-economic direct/indirect effects (e.g. deadweight loss, leverage effects, etc.) and selected general equilibrium effects (e.g. substitution and displacement effects) of EU RD programmes can be calculated using recently developed advanced econometric semi-parametric evaluation methodologies. Answers to EU Common Evaluation Questions (CEQ) regarding the effects of an RD programme on programme beneficiaries at farm level (including deadweight loss and leverage effects) are provided by comparing changes in specific result indicators collected at a farm level (e.g. profits, employment, gross-value added, labour productivity, etc.) in the group of programme beneficiaries with an appropriately selected control group (counterfactual analysis - based on matching). Direct programme effects are calculated on the basis of Average Treatment on Treated (ATT) indicators (for programme beneficiaries), Average Treatment Effects on Non-Treated (ATNT) indicators (for programme non-beneficiaries) and Average Treatment Effects (for both groups) using a combination of propensity score matching (PSM) and difference in differences (DID) methods. A modified propensity score and difference in differences methodology (modified PSM-DID) is applied to derive various general equilibrium effects (e.g. substitution or displacement effects). The empirical analysis is focused on evaluation of effects of the SAPARD programme in Slovakia (years 2002-2005) and the Agrarinvestitionsförderungsprogramm (AFP) in Schleswig Holstein, Germany (2000-2006) using micro-economic data (balanced panels) of bookkeeping farms (including programme participants and non-participants) in respective countries.
    Keywords: impact assessment, counterfactual analysis, evaluation, propensity score matching
    JEL: Q12 Q18
  9. By: Himelein, Kristen
    Abstract: The Living Standards Measurement Study -- Integrated Surveys on Agriculture project collects agricultural and livelihood data in seven countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. In order to maintain representativeness as much as possible over multiple rounds of data collection, a sub-sample of households are selected to have members that have left the household tracked and interviewed in their new location with their new household members. Since the sub-sampling occurs at the level of the household but tracking occurs at the level of the individual, a number of issues arise with the correct calculation for the sub-sampling and attrition corrections. This paper is based on the panel weight calculations for the initial rounds of the Integrated Surveys on Agriculture surveys in Uganda and Tanzania, and describes the methodology used for calculating the weight components related to sub-sampling, tracking, and attrition, as well as the criteria used for trimming and post-stratification. It also addresses complications resulting from members previously classified as having attrited from the sample returning in later rounds.
    Keywords: Housing&Human Habitats,Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping,Science Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences
    Date: 2013–02–01
  10. By: Arthur Grimes (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Sean Hyland (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Andrew Coleman (New Zealand Treasury); James Kerr (Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment); Alex Collier (Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment)
    Abstract: The New Zealand Regional Housing Model (NZRHM) includes estimated equations for four key housing market variables: house prices, housing supply (new dwelling consents), residential vacant land (lot) prices, and average rents. Long run (cointegration) relationships and short run (error correction) relationships are estimated for each of these variables across 72 TLAs within New Zealand. The model is designed so that it can be used for short to medium term forecasting. It is also useful for simulating the effects of shocks to the housing market. The paper presents simulations of the impacts of shocks to exogenous variables (population, credit restrictions, construction costs and farm prices) as well as shocks to policy variables (developer contributions, accommodation supplement, and land availability). We also simulate the consequences of the Christchurch earthquakes for Canterbury housing outcomes. The over-arching conclusion across all simulations is that housing markets are very slow to adjust to disequilibria, such that exogenous shocks have very long lasting effects on prices and the housing stock.
    Keywords: house prices, housing supply, lot prices, rents, housing model
    JEL: R21 R31
    Date: 2013–02
  11. By: Gibson, John; Beegle, Kathleen; De Weerdt, Joachim; Friedman, Jed
    Abstract: This paper uses data from eight different consumption questionnaires randomly assigned to 4,000 households in Tanzania to obtain evidence on the nature of measurement errors in estimates of household consumption. While there are no validation data, the design of one questionnaire and the resources put into its implementation make it likely to be substantially more accurate than the others. Comparing regressions using data from this benchmark design with results from the other questionnaires shows that errors have a negative correlation with the true value of consumption, creating a non-classical measurement error problem for which conventional statistical corrections may be ineffective.
    Keywords: Food&Beverage Industry,Consumption,Inequality,Economic Theory&Research,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences
    Date: 2013–02–01
  12. By: Kathage, Jonas; Qaim, Matin; Kassie, Menale; Shiferaw, Bekele A.
    Abstract: Modern technologies are often not widely adopted among smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Several adoption constraints have been discussed in the literature, including limited access to information. Using survey data from farmers in Tanzania and the average treatment effect framework, we question the hypothesis that limited information is an important constraint for the adoption of hybrid maize technology. While we find an adoption gap from incomplete awareness exposure, this gap is sizeable only in the east of Tanzania, where productivity effects of hybrids are small. In the north, where adoption is much more beneficial, almost all farmers are already aware of hybrids. The results suggest that exposure to a new technology may be a function of expected returns to adoption. We also test for other constraints related to credit and risk, which do not determine adoption significantly. More generally, nonadoption of technologies is not always a sign of constraints but may also indicate low benefits. Some policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: farm survey, technology adoption, hybrid maize, Tanzania, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, O13, O33, Q12, Q16,
    Date: 2013–02
  13. By: Rahman, Aminur
    Abstract: Using calories in a unitary framework, previous literature has claimed lack of gender inequality in intrahousehold food distribution. This paper finds that while there is lack of gender disparity in the calorie adequacy ratio, the disparity is prominent among children, adolescents, and adults for a number of critical nutrients. Pregnant and lactating women also receive much less of most of these nutrients compared with their requirements. A wife's bargaining power (proxied by assets at marriage), as opposed to her husband's, significantly and positively affects the nutrient allocations of children and adolescents and of adult females. The bargaining effects remain significant after controlling for unobserved household characteristics and the potential nutrition-health-labor market linkage. The findings, which have important policy implications for the growing problem of micronutrient malnutrition in the developing world, also imply that perhaps the nutrition-health-labor market linkage as a key explanation for intrahousehold food distribution has been overemphasized in the previous literature.
    Keywords: Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Nutrition,Population Policies,Housing&Human Habitats,Gender and Health
    Date: 2013–02–01
  14. By: Ingvild Almas (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration and University of Oslo, Bergen); Anders Kjelsrud (ESOP, University of Oslo); Rohini Somanathan (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, India)
    Abstract: Since the late 1970s, the price indices underlying the poverty lines in India have been updated using aggregate indices. Widespread criticism of these indices led to the adoption of a new official methodology in 2011 based on unit values from con- sumption survey data. We propose an alternative approach that identifies poverty from consumer behaviour, based on the notion that equally poor households spend the same proportion of their incomes on food. Compared with official estimates, we find higher levels of poverty in eastern India, and generally, smaller reductions in poverty from 2005 to 2010. Our poverty numbers are validated by the calorie composition of households around the poverty lines and self-reported hunger.
    JEL: D1 E31 F01 I32
    Date: 2013–02
  15. By: Beghin, John C.
    Abstract: This book presents new developments in non tariff measure (NTM) policy analysis by leading authors in the field, from conceptual developments and methodology improvements, to a series of innovative cases studies. A novel policy research agenda underlies the book recognizing that some NTMs are required to sustain market exchange. The investigations address the welfare and trade impacts of standard-like NTMs in presence of market imperfections, their measurements, potential protectionism, and implications for North-South trade and income prospects in developing countries, including for small holders. Several analyses address the potential trade-cost effects of these NTMs through their lack of transparency, their heterogeneity across countries, and constraints to harmonize them and gains from harmonization. Certification is also analyzed in two chapters, one looking at private standards and heterogeneous firms in a developing country context, and the other exploring certification and cooperation in certification for a panel of countries. Several analyses investigate trade within OECD countries, including looking at export decisions by heterogeneous firms and the effect of harmonization of standards on firm productivity, and exploring the export-enhancing effect of a country’s own stringency in standards. Practical policy implications are drawn. TOC and summary findings are presented here.
    Keywords: sanitary and phytosanitary; certification; Non-tariff measures (NTMs); SPS; market imperfection; transparency; stringency; harmonization
    JEL: F13 F14 Q17
    Date: 2013–04–30
  16. By: Traeger, Christian
    Abstract: Global warming, alterations of ecosystems, and sunk investmentsall imply irreversible changes with uncertain future costs and benefits. Twoconcepts measure how this combination of uncertainty and irreversibilitychanges the value of preserving an ecosystem or postponing an investment.First, the environmental and resource economics literature developed theArrow-Fisher-Hanemann-Henry quasi-option value. Second, the real optionsliterature developed the Dixit-Pindyck option value. This paper clarifiesthe precise differences between the two approaches in a simple two periodmodel. We explain that the quasi-option value captures the value of learningconditional on preservation, while the Dixit-Pindyck option value capturesthe net value of preservation under learning. We show how either of the twoconcepts alters the common net present value decision rule. We illustratesimilarities, differences, and the decision rules in two instructive examples.
    Keywords: Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, irreversibility, option, quasi-option value, benefit cost analysis, uncertainty
    Date: 2013–01–01
  17. By: Elena Gross (Georg-August-University Göttingen); Isabel Günther (ETH Zürich); Youdi Schipper (VU University Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Public funding of water supply infrastructure in developing countries is often justified by the expectation that the time spent on water collection significantly decreases, leading to increased labor force participation of women. In this study we empirically test this hypothesis by applying a difference-in-difference analysis to a sample of 2000 households in rural Benin where improved water supply was phased in over time. Time savings per day are rather modest at 35 minutes: even though walking distances are considerably reduced, women still spend a lot of time waiting at the water source. Moreover, a reduction in time to collect one water container induces women to collect a higher number of containers per day. Our results indicate that time savings are rarely followed by increased labor supply of women: men are the first to be freed from water fetching activities.
    Keywords: Water Supply; Behavioral Change; Time Savings; Labor Supply; Gender Bias
    JEL: I38 J22 J16
    Date: 2013–02–22
  18. By: Bonnet, Céline; Réquillart, Vincent
    Date: 2013–01
  19. By: Esther Regnier (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Katheline Schubert (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)
    Abstract: This article analyzes the impact of aquaculture on wild fish stocks and on fish consumption, taking into account its dependence on reduction fisheries for the feeding of the farmed species and consumet preferences. The model includes the demand side and three sectors : and edible fish fishery and a reduction fishery, both in open access, and an aquaculture sector. We assume on the one hand that consumer preferences are carnivorous species biased, and on the other hand that the efficiency of the aquaculture sector depends on the diet of the farmed species. We show that consumers are better-off in presence of aquaculture. Furthermore, the income level for which collapse of the wild edible fishery occurs is postponed. However, the choice of the farmed species entails a trade-off between the edible fishery and the reduction fishery which stems from the characteristics of the demand side. Therefore, we explore the consequences of the sensitivity of consumers to the farmed fish type. We also analyze the dynamics of fish stocks, supplies and prices and find that the steady state is a stable node.
    Keywords: Fisheries; aquaculture; consumer preferences; food safety
    Date: 2013–01
  20. By: Esther Regnier (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Michel De Lara (CERMICS - Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche en Mathématiques et Calcul Scientifique - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech)
    Abstract: The Word Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, 2002) encouraged the application of the ecosystem approach by 2010. In this perspective, we propose a theoretical management framework that deals jointly with i) ecosystem dynamics, ii) conflicting issues of production and preservation and iii) robustness with respect to dynamics uncertainties. More specifically, we define the robust viability kernel as the set of initial species biomasses such that at least one harvesting strategy guarantees minimal production and preservation levels for all times, whatever the uncertainties. We apply our approach to the anchovy-hake couple in the Peruvian upwelling ecosystem. We find that accounting for uncertainty significantly reduces the robust viability kernel compared to the deterministic one (without uncertainties). We observe that, when we increase the set of uncertainties, the robust viability kernel very slightly decreases, expressing a moderate sensibility with respect to refining the set of uncertainties. We comment on the management implications of comparing robust viability kernels (with uncertainties) and the deterministic one (without uncertainties).
    Keywords: Optimization; viability; uncertainty; robustness; sustainability; ecosystem management; fisheries; Peruvian upwelling
    Date: 2013–01

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