nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2012‒12‒06
28 papers chosen by
Angelo Zago
University of Verona

  1. Implications of Alternative Mitigation Policies on World Prices for Fossil Fuels and Agricultural Products By Paltsev, Sergey
  2. Rural Poverty and Agricultural Development in Tamil Nadu By Dhas, Albert Christopher
  3. Political Economy of Public Policies: Insights from Distortions to Agricultural and Food Markets By Anderson, Kym; Rausser, Gordon; Swinnen, Johan
  4. The Value of Advice: Evidence from Mobile Phone-Based Agricultural Extension By Shawn A. Cole; A. Nilesh Fernando
  5. Agricultural Decisions after Relaxing Credit and Risk Constraints By Dean Karlan; Christopher Udry; Isaac Osei-Akoto; Robert Darko Osei
  6. Agri-environmental policy and urban sprawl patterns: A general equilibrium analysis By Thomas Coisnon; Walid OUESLATI; Julien Salanié
  7. The Decarbonization of China's Agriculture By Huang, Yongfu; He, Jingjing
  8. How Much Green for the Buck? Estimating Additional and Windfall Effects of French Agro-Environmental Schemes by DID-Matching By Chabé-Ferret, Sylvain; Subervie, Julie
  9. Diet Diversification and Diet Quality in India: An Analysis By Raghav Gaiha; Nidhi Kaicker; Katsushi S. Imai; Vani S. Kulkarni; Ganesh Thapa
  10. Straw potential for energy purposes in Poland and optimal allocation to major co-firing power plants By Stelios Rozakis; Dimitris Kremmydas; Rafal Pudelko; M Borzecka-Walker; A. Faber
  11. Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation, Crops and Hydropower in Vietnam By Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Fant, Charles; Strzepek, Kenneth
  12. Long Run Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net By Hilary W. Hoynes; Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach; Douglas Almond
  13. Poverty Reduction and Growth Interactions: What Can Be Learned From the Syrian Experience?. By David, Anda Mariana; Marouani, Mohamed Ali
  14. Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability: Do It Now or Wait and See? By Daiju Narita; Martin F. Quaas
  15. World Wheat Price Volatility: Selected Scenario Analyses By Wyatt Thompson; Garry Smith; Armelle Elasri
  16. Improving the organisation and commercialisation of small coffee and cocoa producers in the Northern Amazon Region of Ecuador By Oswaldo Viteri Salazar; Jesus Ramos-Martin
  17. The Farm, the City, and the Emergence of Social Security By Elizabeth M. Caucutt; Thomas F. Cooley; Nezih Guner
  18. Dual Landownership as Tax Shelter: How Did the Chinese Solve Ricardo's Problem? By Yang, Helen
  19. Costly Posturing: Relative Status, Ceremonies and Early Child Development in China By Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiaobo;
  20. On the Spatial Economic Impact of Global Warming By Klaus Desmet; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
  21. Commodity Price Shocks and Child Outcomes: The 1990 Cocoa Crisis in Côte d’Ivoire. By Cogneau, Denis; Jedwab, Rémi
  22. Public perceptions of earthquake risk and its impact on land pricing: The case of the Uemachi fault line in Japan By Gu, Tao; Nakagawa, Masayuki; Saito, Makoto; Yamaga , Hisaki
  23. Estimating non-marginal willingness to pay for railway noise abatement: application of the two-step hedonic regression technique By Swärdh , Jan-Erik; Andersson, Henrik; Jonsson, Lina; Ögren , Mikael
  24. Modes of Collective Action in Village Economies: Evidence from Natural and Artefactual Field Experiments in a Developing Country By Sawada, Yasuyuki; Kasahara, Ryuji; Aoyagi, Keitaro; Shoji, Masahiro; Ueyama, Mika
  25. A note on the impact evaluation of public policies: the counterfactual analysis By Loi, Massimo; Rodrigues, Margarida
  26. The Millennium Development Goals post 2015: Towards a global social contract By van Bergeijk, Peter A.G.
  27. Cash for work in Sierra Leone : a case study on the design and implementation of a safety net in response to a crisis By Andrews, Colin; Ovadiya, Mirey; Ribes Ros, Christophe; Wodon, Quentin
  28. The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam By Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James

  1. By: Paltsev, Sergey
    Keywords: climate change mitigation, fuel prices, agricultural prices, biofuels, computable general equilibrium
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Dhas, Albert Christopher
    Abstract: Tamil Nadu is basically an agricultural economy. Agriculture is the backbone of the development of the Tamil Nadu economy. The role of agriculture in shaping the economy could be reflected from the large proportion of population that depends on agriculture for their livelihood and the significant contribution of agriculture to the state income. Due to its predominance, any positive and negative aspects of developments in the state could be linked with the performance of the agricultural sector. Hence, the concept of sustainable agriculture is more of a necessary issue of concern for solving the social and economic problems of the state. With this background, the present paper attempts to examine the linkages between rural poverty and agriculture in Tamil Nadu. The paper examined present status and trends in rural poverty in Tamil Nadu. It also examined the agriculture development and certain characteristics of agriculture in the state. By establishing the linkages between agriculture and poverty, the study argued that agricultural development would ensure food security, health and nutritional security, income and employment security, and economic and social security and thereby facilitate removal of poverty in Tamil Nadu.
    Keywords: Poverty; Tamil Nadu; Agriculture; Food Security; Health Security; Social Security; Economic Security; Nutrition Security Employment Security
    JEL: I0 I12 O15 O13
    Date: 2012–10–30
  3. By: Anderson, Kym; Rausser, Gordon; Swinnen, Johan
    Abstract: The agricultural and food sector is an ideal case for investigating the political economy of public policies. Many of the policy developments in this sector since the 1950s have been sudden and transformational, while others have been gradual but persistent. This article reviews and synthesizes the literature on trends and fluctuations in market distortions and the political-economy explanations that have been advanced. Based on a rich global data set covering a half-century of evidence on commodities, countries, and policy instruments, we identify hypotheses that have been explored in the literature on the extent of market distortions and the conditions under which reform may be feasible.
    Keywords: Distortions to agricultural markets; economics of farm and food politics
    JEL: D72 D78 F13 F14 N50 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2012–11
  4. By: Shawn A. Cole (Harvard Business School, Finance Unit); A. Nilesh Fernando (Harvard Kennedy School)
    Abstract: Attempts to explain the astonishing differences in agricultural productivity around the world typically focus on farm size, farmer risk aversion, and credit constraints, with an emphasis on how they might serve to limit technology adoption. This paper takes a different tack: can managerial practices explain this variation in productivity? A randomized evaluation of the introduction of a mobile-phone based agricultural consulting service, "Avaaj Otalo (AO)" to cotton farmers in Gujarat, India, reveals the following. Demand for agricultural advice is high, with more than half of farmers calling AO in the first seven months. Farmers offered the service turn less often to other farmers and input sellers for agricultural advice. Management practices change as well: we observe an increase in the adoption of more effective pesticides, and reduced expenditure on less effective and hazardous pesticides. Treated farmers also sow a significantly larger quantity of cumin, a lucrative but risky crop. Interestingly, use of the service is increasing in the level of farmer education, but education levels do not affect the size of treatment effects. Farmers appear willing to follow advice without understanding why the advice is correct: the average respondent does not demonstrate improved agricultural knowledge, though there is some evidence educated farmers learn from the service.
    JEL: O12 O13 Q16
    Date: 2012–11
  5. By: Dean Karlan (Economic Growth Center, Yale University); Christopher Udry (Economic Growth Center, Yale University); Isaac Osei-Akoto (University of Ghana, Legon); Robert Darko Osei (University of Ghana, Legon)
    Abstract: The investment decisions of small-scale farmers in developing countries are conditioned by their financial environment. Binding credit market constraints and incomplete insurance can reduce investment in activities with high expected profits. We conducted several experiments in northern Ghana in which farmers were randomly assigned to receive cash grants, grants of or opportunities to purchase rainfall index insurance, or a combination of the two. Demand for index insurance is strong, and insurance leads to significantly larger agricultural investment and riskier production choices in agriculture. The salient constraint to farmer investment is uninsured risk: when provided with insurance against the primary catastrophic risk they face, farmers are able to find resources to increase expenditure on their farms. Demand for insurance in subsequent years is strongly increasing in a farmer’s own receipt of insurance payouts, and with the receipt of payouts by others in the farmer’s social network. Both investment patterns and the demand for index insurance are consistent with the presence of important basis risk associated with the index insurance, and with imperfect trust that promised payouts will be delivered.
    Keywords: agriculture, insurance markets, credit markets, risk, underinvestment, misallocation
    JEL: C93 D24 D92 G22 O12 O13 O16 Q12 Q14
    Date: 2012–10
  6. By: Thomas Coisnon (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - Agrocampus Ouest - INRA : UMR49); Walid OUESLATI (UMR GRANEM - UMR MA 49 – Université d'Angers et Agrocampus Ouest - Université d'Angers); Julien Salanié (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - Agrocampus Ouest - INRA : UMR49)
    Abstract: This paper develops a spatial general equilibrium analysis of an agri-environmental policy in a suburban context. We present a static monocentric model of an open city where agricultural bid-rents and agricultural amenities vary endogenously in space. Amenities are valued by households and are thus a factor of urban decentralisation. This leads us to focus on the spatial effects of agri-environmental policies promoting amenities. The model characterises a suburban mixed land-use area where households and farmers share space. We provide theoretical evidence that agri-environmental policies are not adopted uniformly by farmers and that they impact on several city features. We highlight that the funding of an agri-environmental policy through household income taxation can modify urbanisation patterns. We also discuss its distributional aspects.
    Keywords: agricultural amenities; land development; agri-environmental policy; urban sprawl; leapfrog; monocentric model
    Date: 2012–10–10
  7. By: Huang, Yongfu; He, Jingjing
    Abstract: Agriculture is one of the major greenhouse gas (GHG) emission sources in China. This paper aims to identify the key factors that have led to rising GHG emissions in China.s agricultural sector in recent decades. This research allows for spatial dependence
    Keywords: agriculture; emission reductions; spatial dependence; China
    Date: 2012
  8. By: Chabé-Ferret, Sylvain; Subervie, Julie
    Abstract: Agro-environmental schemes (AES), which pay farmers to adopt greener practices, are increasingly important components of environmental and agricultural policies both in the US and the EU. Here we study the French implementation of the EU AES program. We estimate additional and windfall effects of five AESs for a representative sample of individual farmers using Difference-In-Difference (DID) matching. We derive the statistical assumptions underlying DID-matching from a structural household model and we argue that the economics of the program make it likely that these assumptions hold in our data. We test the implications of the identifying assumptions, provide a lower bound using triple-difference matching, test for crossover effects and insert our estimates of both additionality and windfall effects into a cost-benefit framework. We find that the AESs promoting crop diversity have inserted one new crop into the rotation but on a small part of the cropped area. We also find that the AES subsidizing the planting of cover crops has increased cover crops by 10 hectares on the average recipient farm at the expense of almost 7 hectares of windfall effect. This AES does not appear to be cost effective. In contrast, we find that the AES subsidizing grass buffer strips could be socially efficient despite large windfall effects. We finally estimate that the AES subsidizing conversion to organic farming has low windfall effects and high additionality.
    Keywords: Agro-environmental Schemes - Additionality - Windfall Effects - Treatment Effects - Difference in Difference Matching - Agricultural Practices - Crop Diversity - Cover Crops - Grass Buffer Strips - Organic Farming.
    Date: 2012–07
  9. By: Raghav Gaiha (Department of Urban Studies and Regional Planning, MIT, Cambridge, U.S.A.); Nidhi Kaicker (School of Business, Public Policy and Social Entrepreneurship, Ambedkar University, India); Katsushi S. Imai (Economics, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester (UK) and RIEB, Kobe University (Japan)); Vani S. Kulkarni (Department of Sociology, Yale University, U.S.A.); Ganesh Thapa (International Fund for Agricultural Development, Italy)
    Abstract: Our study examines changes in diets over the period 1993-2009. Diets have shifted away from cereals towards higher consumption of fruits, vegetables, oils and livestock products. Using household data, a food diversity index (FDI) is constructed, based on five food commodities. Significant price effects that vary over time are confirmed, as also income/expenditure effects. Over and above these effects, more sedentary life styles and less strenuous activity patterns played a significant role in shaping dietary patterns. An important finding is slowing down of dietary transition in the more recent sub-period 2004-09. Clues relate to weakening or strengthening of food price, expenditure and life-style effects over time. Using an instrumented measure of FDI in the second stage, and all other exogenous variables, its effects on nutrients' intakes are analysed. A common finding that food diversity is associated with better quality diet and higher intakes of nutrients is not corroborated. While there is a reduction in calorie intake, there are increases in protein and fat intakes. A case is made for provision of public goods, nutrition labelling, regulation of food standards, consumer awareness of healthy diets, food fortification and supplementation, and active involvement of the private sector in adhering to the regulatory standards and nutritional norms.
    Keywords: Poverty, Nutrition, Diet Diversification, Food Diversity Index (FDI), Price Effect, Income Effect, Calorie, Protein, Fat Intakes, India
    JEL: C21 C26 I15 I32 Q18
    Date: 2012–11
  10. By: Stelios Rozakis (Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, Athens 11855, Greece); Dimitris Kremmydas (Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, Athens 11855, Greece); Rafal Pudelko ("Department of Agrometeorology and Applied Informatics, Institute of Soil Sciences and Plant Cultivation (IUNG), State Research Institute, Czartoryskich 8, 24-100 Pulawy, Poland"); M Borzecka-Walker ("Department of Agrometeorology and Applied Informatics, Institute of Soil Sciences and Plant Cultivation (IUNG), State Research Institute, Czartoryskich 8, 24-100 Pulawy, Poland"); A. Faber ("Department of Agrometeorology and Applied Informatics, Institute of Soil Sciences and Plant Cultivation (IUNG), State Research Institute, Czartoryskich 8, 24-100 Pulawy, Poland")
    Abstract: Agricultural waste and especially straw can provide a significant share of biomass energy. However, due to the nature of agricultural production, the need for carbon sequestration in soils and other aspects of food production, only part of straw potential may be treated as waste and spent on energy production. Based on statistical data from Polish Central Statistical Office (CSU) was modelled on a scale of local districts (NUTS-5) the actual production of straw, the needs of its local use and the possibility of redistribution of excessive quantities to regions with a deficit of straw. As a result the straw surplus that could be used in the energy sector was obtained along with its geographical distribution. Next a cost-minimizing transport model is used to optimise straw allocation among main power plants all over the country taking into account capacities and technical constraints of co-firing biomass with coal. Results are detailed at the municipal level indicating excess capacity for biomass co-firing by plant and region to be satisfied by additional biomass sources such as biomass from forest or energy plantations.
    Keywords: Straw potential, Poland, GIS, co-firing, transport models
    JEL: Q16 Q41
    Date: 2012
  11. By: Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Fant, Charles; Strzepek, Kenneth
    Abstract: Vietnam is among the countries that are assumed to be highly affected by the impacts of climate change through sea level rise; increased temperature and changes in precipitation resulting in changes in crop water requirements and yields; and changes in ri
    Keywords: climate change, water systems, agriculture, hydropower, Vietnam
    Date: 2012
  12. By: Hilary W. Hoynes; Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach; Douglas Almond
    Abstract: A growing economics literature establishes a causal link between in utero shocks and health and human capital in adulthood. Most studies rely on extreme negative shocks such as famine and pandemics. We are the first to examine the impact of a positive and policy-driven change in economic resources available in utero and during childhood. In particular, we focus on the introduction of a key element of the U.S. safety net, the Food Stamp Program, which was rolled out across counties in the U.S. between 1961 and 1975. We use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to assemble unique data linking family background and county of residence in early childhood to adult health and economic outcomes. The identification comes from variation across counties and over birth cohorts in exposure to the food stamp program. Our findings indicate that the food stamp program has effects decades after initial exposure. Specifically, access to food stamps in childhood leads to a significant reduction in the incidence of “metabolic syndrome” (obesity, high blood pressure, and diabetes) and, for women, an increase in economic self-sufficiency. Overall, our results suggest substantial internal and external benefits of the safety net that have not previously been quantified.
    JEL: H53 I14
    Date: 2012–11
  13. By: David, Anda Mariana; Marouani, Mohamed Ali
    Abstract: The aim of this article is to analyse in depth the interactions of growth and poverty in Syria, which undertook reforms to reduce the government's involvement in the economy. During the 1996–2004 period, growth was pro-poor in ‘weak absolute’ terms but not in either relative or ‘strong absolute’ terms, owing to the increase in inequality. This can be explained partly by tax policies, but also by an unequal distribution of investment at the regional level. There was also a widening of the gap between urban and rural areas, mainly owing to a pattern of growth in which oil played an increasing role and agriculture a decreasing one. Agricultural and land-policy reforms could have had a negative impact on poverty, despite their positive effect on productivity.
    Keywords: Syrie et Moyen Orient; croissance pro-pauvres; Inégalité; Pauvreté; Syria and MENA; Pro-Poor Growth; Inequality; Poverty;
    JEL: O40 I32 D63
    Date: 2012
  14. By: Daiju Narita; Martin F. Quaas
    Abstract: As growing attention is paid to climate change adaptation as an actual policy issue, the significant meaning of climate variability in adaptation decisions is beginning to be recognized. By using a real option framework, we shed light on how climate change and climate variability affect individuals’ (farmers’) investment decisions with regard to adaptation. As a plausible case in which the delay carries policy implications, we investigate farmers’ choices when adaptation involves the use of an open-access resource (water). The results show that uncoordinated farmers with a high risk aversion may under-adapt while farmers with a low risk aversion would over-adapt under the same conditions. Private adaptation should be supported or discouraged accordingly if farmers are not convinced about the possibilities of collective resource management in the long run
    Keywords: Adaptation to climate change, climate variability, risk and uncertainty, real option, water, open-access resources
    JEL: D81 Q20 Q54
    Date: 2012–11
  15. By: Wyatt Thompson; Garry Smith; Armelle Elasri
    Abstract: This study complements OECD analyses on commodity price volatility by providing quantitative assessments of the impact of two structural changes that a number of market observers have identified as contributing to world wheat market price volatility. The factors examined relate to changes in demand in the large emerging countries of the BRICs (comprising Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China), as a result of continuing economic growth and development and the effect of a lower levels of global wheat stocks in recent years. A further scenario extends the analysis of the role of stocks in price volatility by examining some effects of a hypothetical international buffer stockholding scheme to stabilise international wheat prices. Each scenario was undertaken with the Aglink-Cosimo model and the stochastic baseline as reported in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2011-2020. The results suggest that both factors have contributed to the recorded volatility in world wheat markets in recent years. However the increase in market volatility arising from economic development and income growth is likely to occur gradually, while the moderating effect of larger stocks may only be fleeting. The stylised wheat buffer stock scheme with a price band may lead to slightly lower market volatility under highly specific conditions and constraining assumptions. These, however, have proven difficult to achieve and sustain in practice, as observed from past attempts to implement such schemes.
    Keywords: simulation, scenarios, volatility, variability, stochastic simulations, wheat, price, buffer stocks
    Date: 2012–11–19
  16. By: Oswaldo Viteri Salazar (Institut de Ciencia i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Jesus Ramos-Martin (Departament d'Economia i d'Història Econòmica, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
    Abstract: Coffee and cocoa represent the main sources of income for small farmers in the Northern Amazon Region of Ecuador. The provinces of Orellana and Sucumbios, as border areas, have benefited from investments made by many public and private institutions. Many of the projects carried out in the area have been aimed at energising the production of coffee and cocoa, strengthening the producers’ associations and providing commercialisation infrastructure. Improving the quality of life of this population threatened by poverty and high migration flows mainly from Colombia is a significant challenge. This paper presents research highlighting the importance of associative commercialisation to raising income from coffee and cocoa. The research draws on primary information obtained during field work, and from official information from the Ministry of Agriculture. The study presents an overview of current organisational structures, initiatives of associative commercialisation, stockpiling of infrastructure and ownership regimes, as well as estimates for both ‘robusta’ coffee and national cocoa production and income. The analysis of the main constraints presents different alternatives for the implementation of public land policies. These policies are aimed at mitigating the problems associated with the organisational structure of the producers, with processes of commercialisation and with environmental aspects, among others.
    Keywords: Coffee and cocoa production, associative commercialisation, public policies, international cooperation, Ecuador, good living
    JEL: D63 D71 O19 P13 P17
    Date: 2012–11
  17. By: Elizabeth M. Caucutt; Thomas F. Cooley; Nezih Guner
    Abstract: We study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. The data for the U.S. and for a cross section of countries suggest that urbanization and industrializa- tion are associated with the rise of social insurance. We describe an OLG model in which demographics, technology, and social security are linked together in a political economy equilibrium. In the model economy, there are two locations (sectors), the farm (agricul- tural) and the city (industrial) and the decision to migrate from rural to urban locations is endogenous and linked to productivity differences between the two locations and survival probabilities. Farmers rely on land inheritance for their old age and do not support a pay- as-you-go social security system. With structural change, people migrate to the city, the land loses its importance and support for social security arises. We show that a calibrated version of this economy, where social security taxes are determined by majority voting, is consistent with the historical transformation in the United States.
    Keywords: Social Security, Political Economy, Structural Change, Migration
    JEL: H55 H3 D72
    Date: 2012–11–19
  18. By: Yang, Helen
    Abstract: A conventional theme of the literature on customary land tenure is that multiple ownership and complex tenure systems are obstacles to agricultural development. By studying the persistence of dual landownership in preindustrial China, I hypothesize that complex property norms could be the endogenous outcome of collective choice under institutional constraints, thus may not be inefficient per se. Dual ownership acted as a tax shelter for heavily taxed peasants who colluded with lightly taxed gentry to maximize the value of land. I show empirically that as gentry's tax privilege declined after the tax reform, peasants started to consolidate landownership.The dual owner system provided a solution to the land-use- inefficiency problem emphasized by David Ricardo: Under unequal taxation, land would end up owned by those with stronger political influence and preferential tax rates rather than by those best able to use it.
    Keywords: Economic History; Dual Ownership; Tax Shelter; Tax Inequality; Double Cropping; Preindustrial China; Customary Tenure
    JEL: N45 P48
    Date: 2012–11–16
  19. By: Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiaobo;
    Abstract: Presenting gifts at funerals, weddings, and other ceremonies held by fellow villagers have been regarded as social norms in Chinese villages for thousands of years. However, it is more burdensome for the poor to take part in these social occasions than fo
    Keywords: relative social status, squeeze effects, food consumption, stunting, underweight
    Date: 2012
  20. By: Klaus Desmet; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
    Abstract: We propose a dynamic spatial theory to analyze the geographic impact of climate change. Agricultural and manufacturing firms locate on a hemisphere. Trade across locations is costly, firms innovate, and technology diffuses over space. Energy used in production leads to emissions that contribute to the global stock of carbon in the atmosphere, which affects temperature. The rise in temperature differs across latitudes and sectors. We calibrate the model to analyze how climate change affects the spatial distribution of economic activity, trade, migration, growth, and welfare. We assess quantitatively the impact of migration and trade restrictions, energy taxes, and innovation subsidies.
    JEL: E00 F10 R00
    Date: 2012–11
  21. By: Cogneau, Denis; Jedwab, Rémi
    Abstract: We look at the drastic cut of the administered cocoa producer price in 1990 Côte d'Ivoire and study to which extent cocoa producers' children su®ered from this severe aggregate shock in terms of school enrollment, labor, height stature and morbidity. Using pre-crisis (1985-88) and post- crisis (1993) data, we propose a di®erence-in-di®erence strategy to identify the causal e®ect of the cocoa shock on child outcomes, whereby we compare children of cocoa-producing households and children of other farmers living in the same district or the same village. This causal e®ect is shown to be rather strong for the four child outcomes we examine. Hence human capital investments are de¯nitely procyclical in this context. We also argue that the di®erence-in-di®erence variations can be interpreted as private income e®ects, likely to derive from tight liquidity constraints.
    Keywords: Education; Health; Commodity prices; Child Labor; Agriculture; Africa;
    JEL: I12 I21 O12
    Date: 2012
  22. By: Gu, Tao; Nakagawa, Masayuki; Saito, Makoto; Yamaga , Hisaki
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore how asset pricing reflects public perceptions of earthquake risk using officially appraised prices of land situated along the Uemachi fault, lying along a north-south axis in the east of Osaka prefecture in Japan. We find that active fault risk has been included significantly in land pricing, only since residents and even policymakers first realized considerable earthquake risk involved in the land along the Uemachi fault by observing that in January 1995, the earthquake driven by the Rokko-Awaji fault had catastrophic damages on the southern part of Hyogo prefecture. We estimate that nonresidential land prices along the Uemachi fault are discounted by 4 percent for every 100 meters closer to the fault line.
    Keywords: active faults, earthquake risk, hedonic land pricing, public perceptions
    JEL: R14 R22 D80
    Date: 2012–11
  23. By: Swärdh , Jan-Erik (VTI); Andersson, Henrik (Toulouse School of Economics (LERNA)); Jonsson, Lina (VTI); Ögren , Mikael (VTI)
    Abstract: In this study we estimate the demand for peace and quiet, and thus also the willingness to pay for railway noise abatement, based on both steps of the hedonic model regression on property prices. The estimated demand relationship suggests welfare gains for a 1 dB reduction of railway noise as; USD 162 per individual per year at the baseline noise level of 71 dB, and USD 86 at the baseline noise level of 61 dB. Below a noise level of 49.1 dB, individuals have no willingness to pay for railway noise abatement. Our results also show the risk of using benefit transfer, i.e. we show empirically that the estimated implicit price for peace and quiet differs substantially across the housing markets. From a policy perspective our results are useful, not only for benefit-cost analysis, but also as the monetary component on infrastructure use charges that internalize the noise externality.
    Keywords: Benefits transfer; Hedonic regression; Railway noise; Willingness to pay
    JEL: C21 C26 Q51 Q53
    Date: 2012–11–22
  24. By: Sawada, Yasuyuki; Kasahara, Ryuji; Aoyagi, Keitaro; Shoji, Masahiro; Ueyama, Mika
    Abstract: In a canonical model of collective action, individual contribution to collective action is negatively correlated with group size. Empirical evidence on the group size effect has been mixed, partly due to heterogeneities in group activities. In this paper, we first construct a simple general model of collective action with the free-riding problem, altruism, public goods, and positive externalities of social networks. We then empirically test the theoretical implications of group size effect on individual contribution to four different types of collective action, i.e., monetary or nonmonetary contribution to directly or indirectly productive activities. To achieve this, we collect and employ artefactual field experimental data such as public goods and dictator games conducted in southern Sri Lanka under a natural experimental situation where the majority of farmers were relocated to randomly selected communities based on the government lottery. This unique situation enables us to identify the causal effects of community size on collective action. We find that the levels of collective action can be explained by the social preferences of farmers; we show evidence on the free-riding by self-interested households with no land holdings. The pattern of collective action, however, differs significantly by the mode of activities; the collective action which is directly related to production is less likely to suffer from the free rider problem than from indirectly productive activities. Finally, the monetary contribution is less likely to cause the free riding than the non-monetary contribution.
    Keywords: collective action , social preference , natural and artefactual field experiment , irrigation , South Asia
    Date: 2012–09–03
  25. By: Loi, Massimo; Rodrigues, Margarida
    Abstract: This report describes concisely, and in an intuitive way, the policy evaluation framework and the different counterfactual analysis evaluation strategies: propensity score matching, regression discontinuity design, differences-in-differences and instrumental variables. For each method we present the main assumptions it relies on and the data requirements. These methodologies apply to any type of policy and, in general, to any type of intervention. A selection of papers applying this approach in the context of labour market interventions is also included.
    Keywords: counterfactual analysis; propensity score matching; regression discontinuity; difference in difference; instrumental variables
    JEL: C1
    Date: 2012
  26. By: van Bergeijk, Peter A.G.
    Abstract: This paper deals with the outlook for the interrelated issues of global economic governance and the efficacy of development policies. These are relevant issues in view of the post-2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). My main point is that the formulation of the post-2015 MDGs will have to recognize the new geopolitical and geoeconomic realities that follow from the unprecedented growth of the so-called emerging markets since the 1990s. These economies do still have many characteristics of developing countries especially in remote and rural areas, but at the same time have very large modern sectors that compete successfully on the world markets. These successes are reflected in their sharply increasing shares in Gross Planet Product. Indeed, given the current growth slow-down in the advanced economies and the decoupled (and continuing) growth in the so-called BRIICS-countries (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) it is likely that 2015 will mark the historic fact that the developed countries no longer have a majority share in global production (Figure 1). It is therefore clear that the emerging markets will have (and, indeed, should have) a much more substantial role in global governance structures, including the international organizations. The issue at stake is whether this is favorable or unfavorable for global governance. Moreover, it is pertinent to investigate the implications of the changing economic conditions and to seek ways to make the best use of the new geopolitical and geoeconomic realities.
    Keywords: MDGs; Millennium Development Goals
    Date: 2012–10
  27. By: Andrews, Colin; Ovadiya, Mirey; Ribes Ros, Christophe; Wodon, Quentin
    Abstract: This paper presents an assessment of the first phase (2008?2009) of Sierra Leone's cash for work program based on a qualitative and quantitative analysis examining program design features, mainprocesses and impact. The assessment highlights that while cash for work was an appropriate crisis response, the challenge of achieving good targeting should not be underestimated. Findings from the assessment point to high inclusion errors of non?poor population quintiles, despite the program apparently many rules of best practice in program design. The assessment points to a series of factors to explain targeting performance, and future strategies consider mixed methods with a greater emphasis on the role of communities in affecting overall outcomes. The assessment notes areas of success during implementation, including the impact of the program in promoting cohesion amongst youth groups, as well as women. In this sense the assessment points to future strategies and options for moving cash for work forward under its expanded incarnation of the Youth Employment Support Project. Through the use of light qualitative and quantitative methods, the paper also advocates for similar assessments where monitoring and evaluation capacity are weak and time constraints tight.
    Keywords: Safety Nets and Transfers,Rural Poverty Reduction,Housing&Human Habitats,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Labor Markets
    Date: 2012–11–01
  28. By: Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James
    Abstract: Unlike existing studies, we adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economywide model. Our results for Vietnam indicate that the negative im
    Keywords: climate change, uncertainty, multi-sector, CGE model, Vietnam
    Date: 2012

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