|
on Agricultural Economics |
|
Issue of 2012‒09‒22
23 papers chosen by |
| By: | Chapoto, Antony; Haggblade, Steven; Hichaambwa, Munguzwe; Kabwe, Stephen; Longabaugh, Steven; Sitko, Nicholas J.; Tschirley, David L. |
| Abstract: | This paper traces the trajectories of successful commercial smallholders operating under differing sets of market institutions. Analysis focuses on maize, cotton, and horticulture, three widely marketed crops with strikingly different market institutions. Maize receives intensive government input and marketing support. In contrast, cotton relies primarily on private contract farming schemes, while horticulture enjoys no large-scale institutional support from either the public or private sectors. Using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, the analysis aims to identify personal characteristics and institutional factors that enable smallholder transitions to high-productivity commercial agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Zambia, Food Security, Marketing, Crop Production, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcwp:132339&r=agr |
| By: | Abay Mulatu; Ada Wossink |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:sespap:1215&r=agr |
| By: | Wouter Zant (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We measure the impact of the Farmers Income Diversification Program (FIDP), an EU funded program implemented in Malawi from late 2005 onwards, aiming at increasing agricultural productivity, diversification, value addition, commercialization and trade of subsistence farmers. The geographical spread of the implementation of FIDP is exploited to identify its impact. Computations are based on annual data by Extension Planning Area, 198 in total, fully covering Malawi, for the period 2003-04 to 2009-10. The estimations support a statistically significant impact of FIDP on agricultural productivity, with increases reaching 20% to 24% relative to base period levels, with a lag of at least one year after the start of the program and increasing over the years. Evidence on diversification of crop income is less strong but still suggests increases ranging from 5% to 10%. Results are robust for instrumental variables, synthetic controls, clustering of standard errors and inclusion of additional covariates. |
| Keywords: | agricultural policy; impact evaluation; subsistence farming; Malawi; Africa |
| JEL: | F35 O13 O55 Q11 Q13 |
| Date: | 2012–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20120090&r=agr |
| By: | Okrent, Abigail M.; Alston, Julian M. |
| Abstract: | Food away from home (FAFH) comprises nearly half of all U.S. consumer food expenditures. Hence, policies designed to influence nutritional outcomes would be incomplete if they did not address the role of FAFH. However, because of data limitations, most studies of the response of food demand to policy changes have ignored the role of FAFH, and those studies that have included FAFH have treated it as a single good. We, therefore, estimate demand for 43 disaggregated FAFH and food-at-home (FAH) products, using a 2-stage budgeting framework. We find that the demands for disaggregated FAFH products differ in price responsiveness and tend to be more sensitive to changes in food spending patterns than FAH products. Many foods are found to have statistically significant substitution and complementary relationships within and among food groups. Predicted changes in quantities based on our estimates that include all goods and services and those estimates that include only a subset of foods differ substantially, implying that evaluations of health and nutrition policy based on elasticities of demand for only a subset of goods may be misleading. |
| Keywords: | Food demand, food away from home (FAFH), demand systems, elasticities., Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:132469&r=agr |
| By: | Hichaambwa, Munguzwe |
| Abstract: | Rapid urbanization in Zambia means that increasingly heavy demands are being placed on urban food marketing systems. Investment in these systems has been woefully inadequate for many decades, creating supply bottlenecks and health hazards that work against the interests of both farmers and consumers. Understanding urban food expenditure patterns is a first step in addressing these problems. The Food Security Research Project (FSRP) which is now the Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) has conducted considerable work on urban consumption patterns of stables and fresh produce as part of on-going research and outreach work in the respective value chains1. However, no work has yet been done on livestock products and thus this study seeks to understand urban consumption and purchasing patterns of livestock products and how these vary by income level and across key cities of the country. |
| Keywords: | Zambia, urbanization, food marketing systems, Food Security, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcwp:132343&r=agr |
| By: | Liang, Chyi-Lyi (Kathleen); Su, Flora; Dunn, Paul; Pescatore, Matthew |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to report preliminary findings of a comprehensive study of multifunctional farming operations in New England. The study shows that small farmers are involved in multifunctional activities that allow them to use existing resources to supplement their farming operations. The study clearly shows that small farmers are involved in broadening, deepening and re-grounding activities including direct sales, value added, agritourism and off farm income endeavors. The study provides much needed insight and specification into these actitives and provides important new implications for academics, practitioners and policy makers locally, regionally and nationally. |
| Keywords: | community-based agriculture, multifunctional agriculture, New England, Entrepreneurship, agritourism, value added, direct sales, off farm income, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Q1, Q12, |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea12:132601&r=agr |
| By: | Amy Khuu (Business School, University of Western Australia); Ernst Juerg Weber (Business School, University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | Farm survey data show that the risk aversion of West Australian farmers is comparable to that of other asset holders. An increase in the variability of crop yield by 20%, which may be caused by future climate change, would raise their willingness to pay for crop insurance almost one-to-one by 19%. West Australian farmers can insure against hail, fire and some other perils but not against the greatest risk – drought. The farm survey indicates that adverse selection does not arise in the existing market for crop insurance because insurance premiums reflect the risk of crop failure. However, a future supplier of drought insurance must take into consideration that drought insurance might give rise to moral hazard, changing the risk management practices of farmers. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:12-07&r=agr |
| By: | Benjamin, Olatunbosun |
| Abstract: | Financing of agriculture by commercial and non-commercial institutions in rural Sub-Saharan African in recent years has being relatively constant despite remarkable increase in the number of institutions operating within this area. This development may be attributed to how these institutions rate the business of agriculture and the risks involved. However the slow pace of financing sustainable agriculture such as bio-based economy in the presence of internationalization i.e. Clean Development Mechanism CDM and voluntary carbon market needs to be analyzed. Diverse literature are used in exploring the potential of “bio-based economy” with emphasizes not just on carbon sequestration but agricultural value added. The results suggest that if financial and non-financial institution re-evaluate and reassess their stands on sustainable farming, development of sustainable agriculture in rural areas is inevitable. Constraint to agriculture financing due to lack of access to credit may be reduced if innovative and sustainable smallholders are identified. |
| Keywords: | agricultural credit; carbon (CER);sustainable agriculture; collateral |
| JEL: | Q14 G21 Q57 |
| Date: | 2012–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41313&r=agr |
| By: | Macharia, Ibrahim; Orr, Alastair; Simtowe, Franklin; Asfaw, Solomon |
| Abstract: | This study assessed the potential economic and poverty impact of 11 improved chickpea varieties released by the national agricultural research organization of Ethiopia in collaboration with the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics. The economic surplus model applied estimated a total benefit of US$ 111 million for 30 years. Consumers are estimated to get 39% of the benefit and producers 61%. The benefit cost ratio was estimated at 5:1 and an internal rate of return of 55%, indicating that the investment is profitable. The generated benefit is expected to lift more than 0.7 million people (both producers and consumers) out of poverty. Thus, further investments in the chickpea and other legume research in Ethiopia is justified as a means of poverty alleviation. |
| Keywords: | Economic impact, chickpea, improved varieties, Ethiopia, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:132553&r=agr |
| By: | Shilpa Chaudhary (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, India) |
| Abstract: | Recognizing the critical role of agricultural sector in the overall growth as well as development performance, this study estimates total factor productivity (TFP) in Indian agriculture at state-level. Using Index of Agricultural Production as the measure of output, changes in TFP are estimated using non-parametric Sequential Malmquist TFP index. The TFP change is decomposed into efficiency change and technical change. It is found that productivity improvements are marked in very few states, and so is technical change. The improvements in efficiency are observed to be low for most of the states and efficiency decline is observed in several states implying huge gains in production possible even with existing technology. In order to achieve higher productivity, it is essential to increase efficiency levels as well as achieve a more even spread of new technology. |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:215&r=agr |
| By: | Bozic, Marin; Newton, John; Thraen, Cameron S.; Gould, Brian W. |
| Abstract: | With increased volatility of feed prices dairy farm managers are no longer concerned with managing just milk price volatility but are considering the adoption of risk management programs that address income over feed cost (IOFC) margin risk. Successful margin risk management should be founded on understanding of the behavior of IOFC margins. To that end, we construct forward IOFC margins using Class III milk, corn and soybean meal futures prices. We focus on the characteristics of the term structure of forward IOFC margins, i.e. the sequence of forward margins for consecutive calendar months, all observed on the same trading day. What is apparent from shapes of these term structures is that both in times when margins were exceptionally high and when they were disastrously low, market participants expected that a reversal back to average margin levels would not come quickly, but would rather take up to 9 months. Slopes of the forward margin term structure prior to and after most of the major swings in IOFC indicate these shocks were mostly unanticipated, while time needed for recovery to normal margin levels was successfully predicted. This suggests that IOFC margins may exhibit slow mean-reverting, rather than predictable cyclical behavior, as is often suggested in the popular press. This finding can be exploited to design a successful catastrophic risk management program by initiating protection at 9 to 12 months prior to futures contract maturity. As a case study, we analyze risk management strategies for managing IOFC margins that utilize Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy Cattle (LGM-Dairy) insurance contracts. We created two farm profiles where the first one represents dairy farms that grow most of their feed. The second profile is designed to capture the risk exposure of a dairy farm that purchases all their dairy herd, dry cow, and heifer feed. Our case study of this program encompasses the 2009 period which was characterized by exceptionally poor IOFC margin conditions. We analyzed the dynamics of realized IOFC margins in 2009 under four different risk management strategies, and found that optimal strategies that are founded on principles delineated above succeeded in reducing the decline IOFC margins in 2009 by 93% for home-feed and 47% for market-feed profile, and performed substantially better than alternative strategies suggested by earlier literature. |
| Keywords: | risk management, income over feed cost margin, Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy Cattle program, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umaesp:132379&r=agr |
| By: | Cavero, D. (Rimisp) |
| Abstract: | This document is the result of the Rural Territorial Dynamics Program, implemented by Rimisp in several Latin American countries in collaboration with numerous partners. The program has been supported by the International Development Research Center (IDRC, Canada). We authorize the non-for-profit partial or full reproduction and dissemination of this document, subject to the source being properly acknowledged. |
| Keywords: | Water resources institutions, smallholder farmers, Cuatro Lagunas, Peru |
| JEL: | D44 D82 L86 C72 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rms:wpaper:116&r=agr |
| By: | Dinkelman, Taryn; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam |
| Abstract: | Evaluations of new infrastructure in developing countries typically focus on direct effects, such as the impact of an electrification program on household energy use. But if new infrastructure induces people to move into an area, other local publicly provided goods may become congested, offsetting the benefit of the infrastructure. We use a simple model to show how to measure the net benefit of a place-based program without data on land prices -- an indicator that is commonly used to measure congestion in developed countries but that often cannot be used in poor countries because land markets are missing or land prices are badly measured. Our model shows that congestion externalities are especially large when land markets are missing. To illustrate, we estimate the welfare impact of a recent household electrification program in South Africa. Congestion externalities from migration reduced local welfare gains by half. |
| Keywords: | congestion effects; migration; program evaluation; rural infrastructure; South Africa; welfare |
| JEL: | H23 H43 H54 O15 O18 R13 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9126&r=agr |
| By: | Stéphane Blancard; Elsa Martin |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency measurement is crucial when planning energy reduction policies. However, decision makers understandably are reluctant to act in the absence of solid data and results supporting a policy position. The main objective of this paper is to propose an alternative method to measure farm energy efficiency. This method is based on the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach in a cost framework introduced by Farrell (1957) and developed by Färe et al. (1985). We decompose energy efficiency measurement into two components, namely technical and allocative efficiencies. Here, input prices are replaced by their energy content. The energy efficiency model is used to explore the optimal input-mix that produces the current outputs at minimum energy-consumption. We show that this decomposition can help policy makers considerably to design accurate energy policies. The presence of uncertainty on data, and more particularly on energy content of inputs, leads us to recommend exploiting the methodologies proposed for calculating the bounds of efficiency measurement in order to produce more robust results. We expect to alert policy-makers in the fact that efficiency is not a fixed value and should be considered with caution. A 2007 database of French farms specialized in crops is used for empirical illustration. |
| Keywords: | Data Envelopment Analysis, energy efficiency, uncertainty |
| JEL: | D24 O13 Q15 Q4 |
| Date: | 2012–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ceo:wpaper:38&r=agr |
| By: | Deolinda Martins; Elena Gaia (Division of Policy and Strategy,UNICEF) |
| Abstract: | Poverty disproportionately affects children in all CEECIS countries for which data is available. Social protection is needed to mitigate the lasting effects of the 2008/09 economic crisis in CEECIS, as well as the additional strains on households due to the Eurozone crisis, high unemployment, and recurring food/fuel price spikes. Existing social protection systems in the region need urgent reform: programmes for children need to reach more vulnerable families, provide higher allocations, and offer additional support services beyond cash. |
| Keywords: | children,protection systems,Eastern Europe, Central Asia, economic crisis,fuel price,food price. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uce:wbrief:1202&r=agr |
| By: | Christian A. L. Hilber; Wouter Vermeulen |
| Abstract: | We explore the impact of different types of supply constraints on house prices in England by exploiting a unique panel dataset of 353 local planning authorities ranging from 1974 to 2008. Using exogenous variation from a policy reform, vote shares and historical density to identify the endogenous constraints-measures, we find that: i) Regulatory constraints have a substantive positive long-run impact on the house price-earnings elasticity; ii) The effect of constraints due to scarcity of developable land is largely confined to highly urbanised areas; iii) Uneven topography has a quantitatively less meaningful impact; and iv) The effects of supply constraints are greater during boom than bust periods. |
| Keywords: | House prices, housing supply, supply constraints, land use regulation |
| JEL: | G12 R11 R21 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0119&r=agr |
| By: | Cavatorta, Elisa (SOAS, University of London); Pieroni, Luca (University of Perugia) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores behavioural changes resulting from the presence of a back-ground risk. Due to markets incompleteness, not all risks are insurable. The literature suggests that, according to the structure of preferences, agents bearing a background uninsurable risk are less willing to bear other insurable risks and increase their demand for insurance. The empirical evidence of this effect is limited and, despite the relevance of this question, unexplored in developing countries. This paper fills this gap. It explores the effect of a background risk on the decision to buy health insurance using household data from the Palestinian Territories. We consider the risk of food insecurity as a background uninsurable risk. Using a bivariate probit model, we find that the propensity to buy health insurance is positively affected by the presence of a background risk of food insecurity. When allowing the back-ground risk to vary in intensity, we find that the propensity to insure is higher as the background risk becomes more intense. These results are robust to alternative indicators of background risk. The study shows that, in presence of background risks, there might be incentive changes towards the desirability of insurance that have implications for policy design. |
| Keywords: | Background Risk; Food Insecurity; Health Insurance; Bivariate Probit |
| Date: | 2012–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nepswp:2012_006&r=agr |
| By: | Michael Greenstone; John A. List; Chad Syverson |
| Abstract: | The economic costs of environmental regulations have been widely debated since the U.S. began to restrict pollution emissions more than four decades ago. Using detailed production data from nearly 1.2 million plant observations drawn from the 1972-1993 Annual Survey of Manufactures, we estimate the effects of air quality regulations on manufacturing plants’ total factor productivity (TFP) levels. We find that among surviving polluting plants, stricter air quality regulations are associated with a roughly 2.6 percent decline in TFP. The regulations governing ozone have particularly large negative effects on productivity, though effects are also evident among particulates and sulfur dioxide emitters. Carbon monoxide regulations, on the other hand, appear to increase measured TFP, especially among refineries. The application of corrections for the confounding of price increases and output declines and sample selection on survival produce a 4.8 percent estimated decline in TFP for polluting plants in regulated areas. This corresponds to an annual economic cost from the regulation of manufacturing plants of roughly $21 billion, about 8.8 percent of manufacturing sector profits in this period. |
| JEL: | D2 K3 L5 L6 Q5 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18392&r=agr |
| By: | Zuniga Gonzalez, Carlos Alberto; Toruno, Pedro Jose |
| Keywords: | Malmquist Indexes, Biomass, Carbon Storage, Carbon losses., Environmental Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis, O13, O47, Q51, O:33, Q:57, |
| Date: | 2012–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:naunwp:133181&r=agr |
| By: | Christian K.M. Kingombe (Graduate Institute of International Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests the linkage between a binary treatment (rural road improvement project) and a continuous outcome (cotton productivity) in Zambia’s agro-based Eastern Province as measured by repeated cross-sections of farm-level data from the Zambian post-harvest survey (PHS). We use this PHS dataset, which covers the period from 1996/1997 to 2001/2002 across two phases, the pre-treatment phase (1996/1998) and the treatment phase when the Eastern Province Feeder Road Project (EPFRP) was being implemented (1998/2002). The identification strategy relies on the implementing of matching estimators for all three treatment parameters: Average Treatment Effect (ATE); Treatment on the Treated (TT) and Treatment on the Untreated (TUT), which is crucial in terms of policy relevance (Arcand, 2012). Matching ensures a sub-set of non-project areas that best represents the counterfactual and is done at the same geographic level of aggregation (van de Walle, 2009). Since treatment participation is not by random asignment we use the propensity score as a method to reduce the bias in the estimation of these treatment effects with observational PHS data sets in order to reduce the dimensionality of the matching problem. We find the ATT estimation results are not the same when implementing various matching using ‘the logarithm of (cotton) yield’ compared to using ‘cotton productivity’ as variable. In the latter case the following matching methods all have negative difference between treated and controls: 1-to-1 propensity score matching; k-nearest neighbours matching; radius matching; and 'spline-smoothing'. However, the Kernel matching has positive difference between treated and controls for the ‘productivity’ variable: Finally, some of the local linear regression and the Mahalanobis matching specifications yields positive difference between treated and controls for the ‘logyield’ variable, but not for the ‘productivity’ variable and not for all specifications either. Through our robustness checks of the Matching Assumpion and Sensitivity of Estimates we find that the matching doesn’t reduce the starting unbalancing. The comparison of the simulated ATT and the baseline ATT tells us that the latter is robust. We conclude that the application of various non-parametric matching methods didn’t enable us to identify a robust linkage, most likely due to the PHS data source and the evaluation design. Future rigorous rural roads impact evaluation requires panel (with pre-intervention) data for project and appropriate non-project areas, which allows for an evaluation design that combines a double difference (DID) with controls for initial conditions either through propensity score matching, regression controls or an IV (van de Walle, 2009). Regression discontinuity designs would offer an alternative method for impact evaluation (ADB, 2011; see Arcand, 2012). |
| Keywords: | cAverage Treatment Effects; Average Treatment on the Treated; Matching Methods; Poor rural area development project; Impact evaluation of cotton productivity; Africa; Zambia (Eastern Province). |
| JEL: | C2 C83 D2 O12 O13 Q12 R3 |
| Date: | 2012–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp12-2012&r=agr |
| By: | Rosa Duarte (Department of Economic Analysis, Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, Universidad de Zaragoza); Vicente Pinilla (Department of Applied Economics and Economic History, Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, Universidad de Zaragoza); Ana Serrano (Department of Economic Analysis, Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, Universidad de Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of the relationship between per capita water use and per capita income for 65 countries over the period 1962-2008 within the framework of the so-called environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Consistent with the existing literature, a polynomial fixed effects model is firstly presented. Then, a logistic Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) is estimated, capturing individual heterogeneity and time variability of income elasticity. This empirical study yields several important findings. The nexus between water withdrawal per person and per capita GDP is non-linear, showing a peculiar U-inverted with a marked downward limb that dominates the nexus regardless the estimation method chosen. On the whole, water use income elasticity clearly decreases throughout the period; nevertheless it exhibits a great variability over the sample, reflecting the divergent patterns of water use depending on the level of income of each country and period. |
| Keywords: | Water use, Panel Smooth Transition Regression model, Environmental Kuznets Curve, nonlinearity, per capita income |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zar:wpaper:dt2012-03&r=agr |
| By: | Greasley, David; Hanley, Nicholas; Kunnas, Jan; McLaughlin, Eoin; Oxley, Les; Warde, Paul |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine means to incorporate the environmental effects of fossil fuel use into national accounts and genuine savings estimates. The main focus is on the rationales for the inclusion of carbon dioxide, and its appropriate price tag. We do this in the context of the pricing of historic carbon emissions in United Kingdom over the long run (from the onset of the industrial revolution to the present). Furthermore, we examine the reasonableness of taking into account other greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide. The global effects of carbon dioxide are compared to the local detrimental effects of the production and consumption of coal in the UK. |
| Keywords: | Britain; Economic History; Global Warming; Carbon Dioxide; Fossil Fuels; National accounts; Genuine Savings |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stl:stledp:2012-16&r=agr |
| By: | Bush, Glenn; Hanley, Nicholas; Moro, Mirko; Rondeau, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Protected areas are employed world-wide as a means of conserving biodiversity. Unfortunately, restricting access to such areas imposes opportunity costs on local people who have traditionally relied on access to obtain resources such as fuelwood and bushmeat. We use contingent valuation to estimate the local benefits forgone from loss of access to a number of protected area types in Uganda. Methodologically, we innovate by implementing a "provision point" mechanism to estimate Willingness to Accept compensation (WTA) for loss of access to protected areas. We show that the provision point reduces mean WTA by a significant degree. |
| Keywords: | WTA; Provision point mechanism; Willingness to accept; Uganda; Protected areas; Conservation costs |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stl:stledp:2012-14&r=agr |