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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2012‒05‒22
24 papers chosen by |
| By: | Hichaambwa, Munguzwe; Jayne, Thomas S. |
| Abstract: | Though Zambia has considerable agricultural potential, the sector’s contribution to growth and poverty reduction has been limited. The sector remains one of the most important employers of labour and remains the main source of livelihood for most rural households in Zambia. Thus key development challenge facing Zambian agriculture over the past two decades has been how it can effectively contribute to poverty reduction and broad-based economic growth. Agricultural commercialisation and surplus production, as revealed by nationally representative farm surveys, in the country has remained concentrated with only about 5% of Zambia’s small- and medium-scale farmers produce half of the marketed surplus. Meanwhile at least half of the smallholder farms sell little or no crops and hence derive virtually no cash income from agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Food Security, Land Economics, food policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcwp:123219&r=agr |
| By: | Mapila, Mariam A.T.J.; Njuki, Jemimah M.; Delve, Robert J.; Zingore, Shamie; Matibini, Josephine |
| Abstract: | Farm surveys in Malawi, Zambia and Mozambique were carried out to assess the determinants of fertiliser use given continued low yields, low organic matter and general poor soil health in Southern African soils. Regression modelling showed that fertiliser use was influenced by household and farm characteristics. In addition, it was also influenced by social and human capital and farmers’ perceptions of the effect of fertilisers on soil fertility. Farmers who perceived fertilisers as bad for their soil were less likely to adopt their use. This is a key result, as the emerging discussions on a green revolution for Africa, as well as the continued food crisis discussion, are prompting increased fertiliser use as an immediate intervention for increasing nutrient inputs into agriculture in the developing world. Increased policy efforts should be placed not only on increasing access to fertilisers but also on evolving farmers’ perceptions and attitudes towards fertiliser use. |
| Keywords: | African green revolution, farmer perceptions, fertiliser subsidies, fertiliser use, human capital, social capital, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:123354&r=agr |
| By: | Burke, William J.; Jayne, Thomas S.; Sitko, Nicholas J. |
| Abstract: | Despite being framed as a key component of the nation’s poverty reduction strategy, evidence suggests that inputs distributed under Zambia’s Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) tend to be targeted to the least poor rural households. |
| Keywords: | Food Policy, Poverty, Food Security, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcpb:123208&r=agr |
| By: | Guillemette, Ann-Renée; Cranfield, John |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaeafe:123391&r=agr |
| By: | Mulenga, Brian P.; Richardson, Robert B.; Tembo, Gelson |
| Abstract: | Forests support rural livelihoods and food security in many developing countries by providing critical sources of food, medicine, shelter, building materials, fuels, and cash income. The increasing demand for forest products has enhanced rural livelihoods and enabled the expansion of domestic markets, particularly in urban areas where woodfuel and other forest resources are scarce. Therefore, non-timber forest products may offer sources of income and opportunities for poverty alleviation in both rural and urban areas. In Zambia, most rural households residing near forests extract a range of forest products for both direct consumption and trade (including food products and wood for cooking fuel and charcoal production), and forest products are among the top sources of household income in some rural areas. Households engage in trade of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) because of low capital requirements and relatively easy entry to markets. NTFPs help bridge seasonal gaps in income for many farmers, and they provide a safety net for many rural households during years with low crop yields. |
| Keywords: | Food security, resource economics, non-timber forest products, poverty, Zambia, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcwp:123220&r=agr |
| By: | Burke, William J.; Jayne, Thomas S.; Black, J. Roy |
| Abstract: | Input subsidies are the single greatest expenditure under poverty reduction programs in Zambia. Yet maize yields continue to fall well short of international standards. One major reason appears to be the yield limiting effects of acidity, which is highly common on Zambian soils. We suggest a diversification of the input subsidy scheme beyond fertilizer to include inputs that reduce acidity and raise the yield response to fertilizer application. We further discuss specific recommendations for diversifying productivity investments to put more emphasis on extension and agronomic research. |
| Keywords: | Food Security, Food Policy, Marketing, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcpb:123209&r=agr |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan); Li-Hsueh Chen (California State University-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California.); Shawkat Hammoudeh (Department of Economics, Drexel University Philadelphia, PA); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Department of Quantitative Economics, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the long- and short-run asymmetric adjustments and pairs trades for nine pairs of spot and futures prices, itemized as three own pairs for three different bio-fuel ethanol types, three own pairs for three related agricultural products, namely corn, soybeans and sugar, and three cross pairs that included hybrids of the spot price of each of the agricultural products and an ethanol futures price. Most of the spreads’ asymmetric adjustments generally occur during narrowing. The three ethanol pairs that contain the eCBOT futures with each of Chicago spot, New York Harbor spot and Western European (Rotterdam) spot show different long-run adjustments, arbitrage profitable opportunities and price risk hedging capabilities. The asymmetric spread adjustments for the three grains are also different, with corn spread showing the strongest long-run widening adjustment, and sugar showing the weakest narrowing adjustment. Among others, the empirical analysis indicates the importance of potentially hedging the spot prices of agricultural commodities with ethanol futures contracts, which sends an important message that the ethanol futures market is capable of hedging price risk in agricultural commodity markets. The short-run asymmetric adjustments for individual prices in the nine pairs, with the exception of the corn own pair, underscore the importance of futures prices in the price discovery and hedging potential, particularly for ethanol futures. |
| Keywords: | Long run, short run, asymmetric adjustments, ethanol, agricultural products, arbitrage opportunities, hedging, widening and narrowing adjustment. |
| JEL: | E43 Q11 Q13 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1211&r=agr |
| By: | Owusu, Victor |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the willingness of consumers to pay a premium for organic food product with a contingent valuation data from urban Kumasi of Ghana. Consumer’s willingness to pay a premium is estimated with a bivariate Tobit model. The empirical findings indicate that apart from socioeconomic characteristics and consumer perceptions, product attributes tend to influence consumer preferences for organic water melon and lettuce. The estimated mean WTP premium for 1 kilogram of water melon is GH¢0.5554 (US$ 0.4575) and that of organic lettuce is GH¢1.2579 (US$1.0361). |
| Keywords: | Consumer Perception, Ghana, Organic Foods, Willingness to Pay, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:123394&r=agr |
| By: | Weatherspoon, Dave D.; Dembélé, Assa S.; Weatherspoon, Lorraine J.; Coleman, Marcus A.; Oehmke, James F. |
| Abstract: | Food deserts are associated with lower quality diets and higher obesity rates. Vegetable consumption is key to a healthy diet, reduced obesity and improved health outcomes. Existing research provides little guidance for improving such food environments due to lack of adequate consumption data. This paper addresses this by estimating vegetable demand elasticities for a food-desert community in Detroit, relying on data from a natural experiment. Expenditure played a greater role in determining purchasing behavior than prices. Both elasticities were larger than the national average. Consequently, any policy that increases income or reduces prices could have a significant impact. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaeafe:123392&r=agr |
| By: | Mapila, Mariam A.T.J.; Anesu, Makina |
| Abstract: | The study evaluates the gendered impacts of Agricultural Innovation Systems driven research on livelihood improvements in Africa. Using a case study from Malawi, the study employs a quasi-experimental research design with propensity score matching to establish a counterfactual and single differencing to measure impact. Results demonstrate that innovation systems driven agricultural research programs impact positively and significantly upon the livelihood outcomes of rural women. However there are differences in benefits accruing to women in rural communities depending on headship of the household with female-headed households benefiting more as compared to women in male-headed households. Policy implications are that; although innovation systems thinking has the potential to improve the livelihood outcomes of the poor in Africa; there is need for deliberate gender facilitation in program implementation to ensure equitable and sustainable livelihood improvements. This requires budgetary support to and capacity building of grassroots agricultural advisory service providers and researchers. |
| Keywords: | Gender equity, Quasi-experimentation, Enabling Rural Innovation, Africa, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:123359&r=agr |
| By: | Hill, Jessica I.; Bharad, Abhishek Bhagwat; Harrison, R. Wes; Kinsey, Jean D.; Degeneffe, Dennis J. |
| Abstract: | Every year hundreds of food recalls are made due to contamination. The main focus of this paper is to examine the effects of specific food events on consumers’ confidence in food safety as well as their preparedness regarding the United States food system. The food events studied in this are major food-borne illnesses outbreaks and recalls that have occurred since May 2008. The three events chosen included: the salmonella outbreak in jalapeno and Serrano peppers occurring in 2008, the salmonella outbreak in peanut butter occurring in 2009, and the E.coli outbreak in Nestle cookie dough occurring in 2009. An ordered probit model was used to measure the effects that these specific foodborne illnesses had on consumers’ confidence. The results revealed that the effect of the jalapeno and Serrano peppers and peanut butter significantly and negatively impact consumers’ confidence. The Nestle recall had a negative impact on confidence but was not significant. |
| Keywords: | food safety, food system, food recalls, ordered probit, consumer confidence, consumer attitudes, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea11:123174&r=agr |
| By: | Duran, Anna Clara |
| Abstract: | Introduction: The food environment has been associated with food choices and obesity however tools to measure the food environment in middle-income countries are yet unavailable. Objectives: To propose two indexes to evaluate the food environment: Healthy Meal-Restaurant Index (HM-RI) and Healthy Retail Food Store Index (HRSI). Methods: All restaurants and retail food stores located in 52 census tracts across 13 districts of São Paulo city were audited. ANOVA analyses were performed according to SES and store types. Results: In total, 472 restaurants and 313 retail food stores were found. Mean HM-RI score was 2.66 (Standard deviation - SD=0.96), 50.2% of stores scored up to 2. Higher mean scores were found in high SES areas (p<0.001) and among full service restaurants (p<0.001). Mean HRFI score was 3.15 (SD=2.36). Fruits and vegetable markets and supermarkets scored higher (p<0.001). Conclusion: The proposed tools and indexes have evidence of being able to discriminate retail food stores and restaurant types and can be used in research and practice to characterize establishments and evaluate food environment interventions. |
| Keywords: | food environment, index, restaurants, food stores, retail, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2012–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaeafe:123389&r=agr |
| By: | Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C. |
| Abstract: | This publication contains recent baseline projections from the Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program (AGREP) for U.S. and international rice economies. These projections serve as a baseline for evaluating and comparing alternative macroeconomic, policy, weather, and technological scenarios. They are intended for use by government agencies and officials, farmers, consumers, agribusinesses and others who conduct medium-range and long-term planning. The AGREP baseline projections are grounded in a series of assumptions about the general economy, agricultural policies, weather, and technological change. It is generally assumed that current agricultural policies will be continued in the United States and other countries reported in this study. The AGREP World Rice Outlook starts with a preliminary baseline that is generated in the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) multi-commodity global framework maintained at Iowa State University. The preliminary baseline is then submitted to a review process by experts from U.S. and international governments and organizations, individuals from the land grant and other universities as well as from extension specialists and industry experts. Their comments and suggestions are taken into consideration in the final baseline. We acknowledge and appreciate the help of these numerous individuals, but we take full responsibility for any remaining errors. The projections included in the outlook were prepared in January 2012 based on the best information available at that time. |
| Keywords: | International rice, baseline, policy, deterministic, stochastic, Arkansas Global Rice Model, Demand and Price Analysis, Land Economics/Use, C02, F01, F14, F17, Q17, Q18, R11, |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uarksp:123203&r=agr |
| By: | D'Souza, Anna; Jolliffe, Dean |
| Abstract: | Using nationally-representative household survey data and confidential geo-coded data on violence, we examine the linkages between conflict, food insecurity, and food price shocks in Afghanistan. Spatial mappings of the raw data reveal large variations in levels of food insecurity and conflict across the country; surprisingly, food insecurity is not higher in conflict areas. In a multivariate regression framework, we exploit the 2008 spike in wheat flour prices to estimate differential effects on household food security – measured by calorie intake and the real value of food consumed – based on the level of conflict in the province where the household is located. We find robust evidence that households in provinces with higher levels of conflict experience larger declines in food security than households in provinces with lower levels of conflict. Therefore while conflict may not be the driving factor in overall levels of food insecurity in Afghanistan, it may limit the coping mechanisms available to households in the face of rising food prices. Gaining a better understanding of such linkages and knowing the spatial distribution of food insecurity can serve to inform policymakers interested in targeting scarce resources to vulnerable populations, for example, through the placement of strategic grain reserves or targeted food assistance programs. |
| Keywords: | Afghanistan, food security, conflict, nutrition, poverty, spatial distribution, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, D12, I3, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea12:123323&r=agr |
| By: | Sitko, Nicholas J.; Bwalya, Richard; Kamwanga, Jolly; Wamulume, Mukata |
| Abstract: | A number of problems plague the current Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP), including: late delivery of inputs; distribution of standardized inputs that may not be appropriate for all agro-ecological zones or soil types; crowding out of private sector; poor targeting, and; high cost to the government treasury. |
| Keywords: | Food Security, Food Policy, Poverty, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcpb:123210&r=agr |
| By: | Richards, Timothy J.; Mancino, Lisa |
| Abstract: | Obesity is a complex problem with many causes, from genetic and behavioral disorders to environmental factors, including access to calorie-dense fast food meals. Economists and epidemiologists disagree on the importance of access to fast food as a causal factor for obesity, but agree that any policy regulating access to fast food will likely use the price system, through taxes or other means to raise the relative cost of buying fast food. Yet, little is known of the structure of demand for food-away-from-home (FAFH). This study provides estimates of the price-elasticity of demand for four di¤erent types of FAFH using a novel new dataset from NPD, Inc. By including physiological measures of obesity, physical activity and health status as additional regressors in an instrumental variables framework, we control for important sources of observed heterogeneity. We nd that all types of FAFH are price elastic in demand, but ne dining is highly elastic while fast food is nearly unit elastic. Food-at-home (FAH), on the other hand, is relatively elastic. Critically, cross-price elasticities of demand show little willingness to substitute between FAH and any type of FAFH. When prices are rising, consumers prefer to change the type of restaurant they visit, rather than forego the experience entirely. As shown elsewhere in the literature, therefore, taxing fast food is likely to be counterproductive. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2011–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaeafe:123390&r=agr |
| By: | Ellison, Brenna D.; Lusk, Jayson L.; Davis, David W. |
| Abstract: | In an effort to help Americans make healthier food choices, U.S. lawmakers recently mandated certain restaurants to add calorie labels to their menus. In this study, we implement the same numeric calorie labels in two different full service restaurants using two different experimental designs. Ultimately, both field experiments lead us to the same conclusion: the numeric calorie label (as currently proposed by the FDA) had little effect on total caloric intake. Our results do reveal, however, that the effectiveness of the numeric label could be enhanced with the addition of a traffic light symbol identifying low-, medium-, and high-calorie items. |
| Keywords: | menu labeling, numeric and symbolic calorie labels, restaurant revenue, full service restaurant, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Q19, I18, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea12:123325&r=agr |
| By: | Tack, Jesse B.; Harri, Ardian; Coble, Keith H. |
| Abstract: | The objective of this article is to propose the use of moment functions and maximum entropy techniques as a flexible way to estimate conditional crop yield distributions. We present a moment based model that extends previous approaches in several dimensions, and can be easily estimated using standard econometric estimators. Upon identification of the yield moments under a variety of climate and irrigation regimes, we utilize maximum entropy techniques to analyze the distributional impacts from switching regimes. We consider the case of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas upland cotton to demonstrate how climate and irrigation affect the shape of the yield distribution, and compare our findings to other moment based approaches. We empirically illustrate several advantages of our moment based maximum entropy approach, including flexibility of the distributional tails across alternative irrigation and climate regimes. |
| Keywords: | risk, climate change, moments, entropy, yield, cotton, Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea12:123330&r=agr |
| By: | Céline Grislain-Letrémy (CREST); Bertrand Villeneuve (CREST, Université Paris-Dauphine) |
| Keywords: | natural disasters, industrial disasters, insurance, land use regulation, hazard maps |
| JEL: | H23 G22 R52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2011-32&r=agr |
| By: | Xiaodong Du; Dermot J. Hayes (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)) |
| Abstract: | We update the findings of the impact of ethanol production on U.S. and regional gasoline markets as reported previously in Du and Hayes (2009 and 2011), by extending the data to December 2011. The results indicate that over the period of January 2000 to December 2011, the growth in ethanol production reduced wholesale gasoline prices by $0.29 per gallon on average across all regions. The Midwest region experienced the biggest negative impact of $0.45/gallon, while the regions of East Coast, West Coast, and Gulf Coast experienced negative impacts of similar magnitudes around $0.20/gallon. Based on the data of 2011 only, the marginal impacts on gasoline prices are found to be substantially higher given the increasing ethanol production and higher crude oil prices. The average effect across all regions increases to $1.09/gallon and the regional impact ranges from $0.73/gallon in the Gulf Coast to $1.69/gallon in the Midwest. |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:fpaper:12-wp528&r=agr |
| By: | Hanks, Andrew S.; Just, David R.; Wansink, Brian |
| Abstract: | A key goal of the Healthy, Hungry-Free Kids Act of 2010 is to ensure that children have access to healthy foods in schools. While the new policy mandates that healthy items must be included on the lunch line—and even that children must take certain foods—there is concern both over whether children will choose to eat the healthier fare, and what the ultimate cost may be to schools that comply. We propose a series of behavioral nudges–the total lunchroom makeover–that may help lead children to make healthier choices at little cost the schools in accordance with the goals of the new legislation.. We report the results from a field experiment in which a series of nudges lead to significant increases in the consumption of fruits and vegetables—a substantive step in the right direction. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaeafe:123388&r=agr |
| By: | Margarian, Anne |
| Abstract: | Support of agriculture is justified, among others, by its contribution to rural economic development. Nevertheless, the relation between agricultural and general economic development may be ambiguous. On the one side, agriculture may affect other sectors positively via multiplier and income effects. On the other side, competition effects may arise due to the application of common factors, specifically labour, by agriculture and other sectors. Under these circumstances, support of agricultural production may create distorted market signals and thereby affect the medium and long-term economic development negatively. This research analyses the regionally differentiated relation between the agricultural and the non-agricultural development empirically. The panel estimation model applies data of the common regional accounts from NUTS3 regions of the EU27. It identifies different development regimes with different roles for agriculture. In the most developed economies, competition effects dominate. Nevertheless, in low-productivity regions of Eastern Europe, agriculture stabilises the development of employment and value added. Thereby, policy faces the challenge to support simultaneously structural change in agriculture and the development of other sectors in rural regions. -- Die Unterstützung des landwirtschaftlichen Sektors wird unter anderem mit dessen Beitrag für die ländliche wirtschaftliche Entwicklung gerechtfertigt. Die Rolle einer stabilen Landwirtschaft ist aber möglicherweise ambivalent: Positive Impulseffekte könnten eben-so von ihr ausgehen wie negative Konkurrenzeffekte. Unter diesen Bedingungen kann eine sektorale Förderung durch falsche Marktanreize mittel- und langfristig auch negativ auf die allgemeine wirtschaftliche Entwicklung wirken. Der vorliegende Beitrag analysiert den regional differenzierten Zusammenhang zwischen der landwirtschaftlichen und der außerlandwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung empirisch. Das verwendete Panel-Schätzmodel nutzt Daten der regionalen volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung der NUTS 3-Regionen der EU27. Es werden verschiedene Entwicklungsregime mit unterschiedlichen Rollen der Landwirtschaft identifiziert. In entwickelten Volkswirtschaften dominieren die Konkur-renzeffekte zwischen den Sektoren, doch gerade in den Regionen Osteuropas mit geringer Produktivität wirkt die Landwirtschaft stabilisierend auf die Entwicklung von Wertschöp-fung und Beschäftigung. Daraus ergibt sich die politische Herausforderung, den landwirt-schaftlichen Strukturwandel zu unterstützen und gleichzeitig die Entwicklung anderer Sek-toren in ländlichen Regionen zu stärken, damit frei werdende Produktionsfaktoren vor Ort genutzt werden können. |
| Keywords: | Europe,regional development,structural change,sectoral development,role of agriculture,Europa,Regionalentwicklung,Strukturwandel,Sektorale Entwicklung,Rolle der Landwirtschaft |
| JEL: | O13 O18 Q10 R12 R15 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vtiaba:012012&r=agr |
| By: | Dang, Duc Anh |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I provide a new empirical evidence that natural environment can shape individual risk preferences. By combining historical data on climate variation and contemporary survey questions on risk aversion, I find that risk aversion is significantly different for people who live in areas that have suffered high frequency of natural disasters. In particular, individuals highly affected by climate volatility show a long term risk aversion. The finding also supports the hypothesis that when people used to live in risky environment, an incremental increase in risk affects their risk preferences less. |
| Keywords: | Climate variation, risk aversion, Vietnam |
| JEL: | D03 O53 Q54 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38738&r=agr |
| By: | Bilge Erten |
| Abstract: | Decomposition of real commodity prices suggests four super-cycles during 1865-2009 ranging between 30-40 years with amplitudes 20-40 percent higher or lower than the long-run trend. Non-oil price super-cycles follow world GDP, indicating they are essentially demand-determined; causality runs in the opposite direction for oil prices. The mean of each super-cycle of non-oil commodities is generally lower than for the previous cycle, supporting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Tropical agriculture experienced the strongest and steepest long-term downward trend through the twentieth century, followed by non-tropical agriculture and metals, while real oil prices experienced a long-term upward trend, interrupted temporarily during the twentieth century. |
| Keywords: | Super-cycles, commodity prices, band-pass filters, Prebisch-Singer hypothesis |
| JEL: | C22 E3 Q02 |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:une:wpaper:110&r=agr |