nep-agr New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2012‒05‒08
24 papers chosen by
Angelo Zago
University of Verona

  1. Contract farming and smallholder incentives to produce high quality: experimental evidence from the Vietnamese dairy sector By Saenger, Christoph; Qaim, Matin; Torero, Maximo; Viceisza, Angelino
  2. Economics, Ecology and GMOs: Sustainability, Precaution and Related Issues By Tisdell, Clement A.
  3. Agricultural Trade Distortions During the Global Financial Crisis By Kym Anderson
  4. Trade Policy Implications of Carbon Labels on Food By Baddeley, Shane; Cheng, Peter; Wolfe, Robert
  5. A 2005 Agriculture-Food SAM (AgriFood-SAM) for Ireland By Ana Corina Miller; Alan Matthews; Trevor Donnellan; Cathal O'Donoghue
  6. Modelling Long Memory Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Futures Return By Michael McAleer; Chia-Lin Chang; Roengchai Tansuchat
  7. Forest Land Use Dynamics in Indonesia By Budy P. Resosudarmo; Ani A Nawir; Ida Aju P. Resosudarmo; Nina L Subiman
  8. Asia’s Growth, the Changing Geography of World Trade, and Food Security: Projections to 2030 By Anderson, Kym; Strutt, Anna
  9. Selective logging and the economics of conserving forest wildlife species e.g. orangutans By Tisdell, Clement A.
  10. The Influence of Market Returns and Government Payments on Canadian Farmland Values By Vyn, Richard J.; Haq, Zahoor; Weerahewa, Jeevika; Meilke, Karl D.
  11. Agriculture, Structural Change and Socially Responsible Development in China and Vietnam By Tisdell, Clement A.
  12. The Next-11 and the BRICs: Are They the Future Markets for Agrifood Trade? By Cairns, Alexander; Meilke, Karl D.
  13. The Anatomy of a Credit Crisis: The Boom and Bust in Farm Land Prices in the United States in the 1920s. By Raghuram Rajan; Rodney Ramcharan
  14. Reducing the environmental footprint of pig finishing barns By Jacobson, Larry D.; Schmidt, David R.; Lazarus, William F.; Koehler, Robert
  15. Ex-post Evaluation of Forest Conservation Policies Using Remote Sensing Data: An Introduction and Practical Guide By Allen Blackman
  16. Economics of Controlling Vertebrate Wildlife: the Pest-Asset Dichotomy and Environmental Conflict By Tisdell, Clement A.
  17. Land Use Rights, Market Transitions, and Labor Policy Change in China (1980-4) By Chen, Yiu Por (Vincent)
  18. Post-Moratorium EU Regulation of Genetically Modified Products: Triffid Flax By Viju, Crina; Yeung, May T.; Kerr, William A.
  19. Georgrapical Indications, Barriers to Market Access and Preferential Trade Agreements By Viju, Crina; Yeung, May T.; Kerr, William A.
  20. More Apples Less Chips? The Effect of School Fruit Schemes on the Consumption of Junk Food By Brunello, Giorgio; De Paola, Maria; Labartino, Giovanna
  21. Analyzing Risk of Stock Collapse in a Fishery under Stochastic Profit Maximization By Poudel, Diwakar; Sandal, Leif K.; Kvamsdal, Sturla F.
  22. The environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation: a threatened theory? A meta-analysis By K. Herve DAKPO; Pascale COMBES MOTEL; Johanna CHOUMERT
  23. Indicators to Assess the Effectiveness of Climate Change Projects By Nancy McCarthy; Paul Winters; Ana Maria Linares; Timothy Essam
  24. Does the insurance effect of public and private transfers favor financial deepening? evidence from rural Nicaragua By Hernandez-Hernandez, Emilio; Sam, Abdoul G.; Gonzalez-Vega, Claudio; Chen, Joyce J.

  1. By: Saenger, Christoph; Qaim, Matin; Torero, Maximo; Viceisza, Angelino
    Abstract: In emerging markets for high-value food products in developing countries, processing companies search for efficient ways to source raw material of consistent quality. One widely embraced approach is contract farming. But relatively little is known about the appropriate design of contracts, especially in a small farm context. We use the example of the Vietnamese dairy sector to analyze the effectiveness of existing contracts between a processor and smallholder farmers in terms of incentivizing the production of high quality milk. A framed field experiment is conducted to evaluate the impact of two incentive instruments, a price penalty for low quality and a bonus for consistent high quality milk, on farmers’ investment in quality-improving inputs. Statistical analysis suggests that the penalty drives farmers into higher input use, resulting in better output quality. The bonus payment generates even higher quality milk. We also find that input choice levels depend on farmers’ socio- economic characteristics such as wealth, while individual risk preferences seem to be less important. Implications for the design of contracts with smallholders are discussed.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Community/rural/urban development, Institutional and behavioral economics, Demand and price analysis, Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Demand and Price Analysis, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, C93, D22, L14, O13, Q12, Q13,
    Date: 2012–04
  2. By: Tisdell, Clement A.
    Abstract: Ecological, evolutionary and economic issues involved in introducing genetically modified organisms (GMOs), mainly in agriculture, are discussed. The ecological and evolutionary impacts identified hamper (economic) valuation of GMOs and their biosafety regulation and creates difficulties for planning for sustainable development. Assessment of the desirability of releasing GMOs is difficult because of lack of communal agreement about the risks involved, about how much precaution should be exercised given collective risks, and disagreement on the appropriate social criterion to apply. Changes in legal liability are not always economic and cannot eliminate the social conflict generated by GMOs. The economics of developing and marketing GMOs is explored, assuming the type of intellectual property rights in GMOs in the United States. It is found that the economics of developing and marketing GMOs favours large enterprises as primary suppliers. In marketing GMOs, sales to larger-sized commercial farms rather than smaller-sized ones are preferred. GMOs preferred for development are those designed to satisfy large agricultural markets, mostly located in higher income countries. The patenting of GMOs, co-evolution, various social conflicts in the use of GMOs and legal liability for damages caused by GMOs are discussed both from a socioeconomic and biosafety point of view.
    Keywords: Biodiversity, biosafety, genetically modified organisms, GMOs, intellectual property rights, market structure, sustainable development, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,
    Date: 2011–09
  3. By: Kym Anderson
    Abstract: The recent upward spike in the international price of food led some countries to raise export barriers. As in previous price spike periods, that response by some food-exporting countries was accompanied by a lowering of import restrictions by numerous food-importing countries. Both actions exacerbate the international price spike. This paper provides new evidence n the extent of change in domestic relative to international prices in both groups of countries, and compares it with responses during previous food price spike periods. Stronger WTO disciplines on export restrictions are needed to limit government responses that exacerbate such price shocks.
    Keywords: Domestic market insulation, Distorted incentives, Commodity price stabilization
    JEL: F14 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2012
  4. By: Baddeley, Shane; Cheng, Peter; Wolfe, Robert
    Abstract: Despite the presence of food miles labels and carbon labels on the market for many years, relatively little data is available on how consumers respond to these labels. It is one thing to show people saying in surveys they will use carbon labels, and quite another to have evidence of people actually using them. Carbon labels could be complicated to develop and implement fairly, with significant burdens on producers, especially in developing countries. If the only problem that a carbon label solves is relieving the bad conscience of rich western consumers, then they will be a disaster. Tackling climate change is too urgent to waste time and resources on anything that may prove to be a sideshow.
    Keywords: trade, policy carbon, labels, wto, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2011–10
  5. By: Ana Corina Miller (IIIS and Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Alan Matthews (IIIS and Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Trevor Donnellan (Rural Economy Research Centre, Teagasc); Cathal O'Donoghue (Rural Economy Research Centre, Teagasc)
    Abstract: This paper describes the construction of a social accounting matrix with disaggregated agricultural and food industry sectors for Ireland for the purpose of agri-food policy simulations. The base year for the AgriFood–SAM is 2005 and it draws on a recently constructed 2005 SAM for Ireland (Miller et al., 2011). Its unique features include a high level of disaggregation of the agricultural and food industry sectors as well as the integration of individual household data for the purposes of micro-simulation analysis. The AgriFood–SAM documented here can be used as a tool to analyse the intersectoral linkages between the agri-food sectors and the Irish economy. Multiplier effects for exogenous changes in final demand for different agri-food activities are presented. This paper also presents the economic impact of reducing GHG emissions from the agricultural sectors by 20%, using a SAM multiplier analysis. The linear SAM model is based on the Leontief model, but as it incorporates income generation and distribution as well as the production side, it captures the complete circular flow of the economy. The results suggest that a 20% reduction in GHG emission by 2020 will have a contractionary effect in the whole economy. This policy will reduce the total gross output in the economy by more than half a billion euro and have an indirect effect on the household by reducing its total income with more than €200 million. In interpreting the results form a multiplier analysis we should be careful as the model assumes fixed proportion production functions, fixed prices and free availability of resources. In other words if cattle output reduces by 12.6% in 2020 then the level of inputs used in by this sectors is assumed to be reduced by same percentage. Similarly employment and income are assumed to be reduced in the same proportions. Also, multipliers are based on the state of technology within a sector at a point in time. Hence, multipliers may change in different sectors over time as technology changes.
    Keywords: social accounting matrix, input-output table, agriculture, multiplier analysis, Ireland
    JEL: C67 D57 Q12 Q18
    Date: 2011
  6. By: Michael McAleer (Erasmus University Rotterdam,Tinbergen Institute,Kyoto University,Complutense University of Madrid); Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan); Roengchai Tansuchat (Faculty of Economics Maejo University Chiang Mai, Thailand)
    Abstract: This paper estimates a long memory volatility model for 16 agricultural commodity futures returns from different futures markets, namely corn, oats, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, live cattle, cattle feeder, pork, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat, rubber, and palm oil. The class of fractional GARCH models, namely the FIGARCH model of Baillie et al. (1996), FIEGARCH model of Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996), and FIAPARCH model of Tse (1998), are modelled and compared with the GARCH model of Bollerslev (1986), EGARCH model of Nelson (1991), and APARCH model of Ding et al. (1993). The estimated d parameters, indicating long-term dependence, suggest that fractional integration is found in most of agricultural commodity futures returns series. In addition, the FIGARCH (1,d,1) and FIEGARCH(1,d,1) models are found to outperform their GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) counterparts.
    Keywords: Long memory, agricultural commodity futures, fractional integration, asymmetric, conditional volatility.
    JEL: Q14 Q11 C22 C51
    Date: 2012–05
  7. By: Budy P. Resosudarmo; Ani A Nawir; Ida Aju P. Resosudarmo; Nina L Subiman
    Abstract: Alternative land use remains a controversial issue in Indonesia, particularly with regard to regions outside Java. This paper aims to highlight forest land use dynamics in Indonesia, and particularly the difficulties of resolving the conflicts between conservation, the need to preserve local livelihoods, the demands of the logging industry, both legal and illegal, and the pressures to convert land from forest use to other uses, mainly agriculture, plantations and mining. The paper also stresses the importance of more research into who benefits from these competing uses of forest lands, and how these benefits have been distributed within Indonesian society. In conclusion, this paper argues that the underlying causes of deforestation in Indonesia are complex, and cover various aspects of market failure, inappropriate policy implementation in relation to forest management, lack of governance capacity at central and district levels, and other, broader socioeconomic and political issues.
    Keywords: forest management, deforestation, plantation, mining, climate change
    JEL: Q23 Q54 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2012
  8. By: Anderson, Kym; Strutt, Anna
    Abstract: Rapid trade-led economic growth in emerging Asia has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade but also altering the commodity composition of trade by Asia and other regions. What began with Japan in the 1950s and Korea and Taiwan from the late 1960s has spread to the much more populous ASEAN region, China and India. This paper examines how that growth and associated structural changes are altering agricultural markets in particular and thereby food security. It does so retrospectively and by projecting a model of the world economy which compares alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios and savings behaviours to 2030. Projected impacts on sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade and the composition and direction of trade are drawn out, followed by effects of the boom in non-farm sectors on agricultural self-sufficiency and real food consumption per capita in Asia and elsewhere. The paper concludes by drawing implications for policies that can address more efficiently Asia’s concerns about food security and rural-urban income disparity than the trade policy measures used by earlier-industrializing Northeast Asia.
    Keywords: Asian economic growth and structural change; booming sector economics; food security; global economy-wide model projections; South-South trade
    JEL: D58 F13 F15 Q17
    Date: 2012–04
  9. By: Tisdell, Clement A.
    Abstract: Analyzes the economics of alternative allocations of forested land for uses (dominant-use vs. multiple use) to ensure the survival of a viable population of a forest-dependent species, e.g. the orangutan. The alternatives are (1) setting aside a sufficient fully protected portion of the forest and allowing the rest to be used for intensive logging and (2) fully protecting none of the forested area but allowing a sufficient portion of it to be lightly (selectively) logged to ensure the survival of the population of the focal species with the remaining land (if any) being available for intensive use.
    Keywords: biodiversity conservation, conserving of forest species, forestry, logging and conservation, opportunity cost and conservation, orangutans, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Q23, Q51, Q57,
    Date: 2011–09
  10. By: Vyn, Richard J.; Haq, Zahoor; Weerahewa, Jeevika; Meilke, Karl D.
    Abstract: This study estimates the impact of changes in market returns and government payments on farmland values across Canada using data from 1959 to 2009. A recursive simultaneous equation model is estimated to account for the counter-cyclical relationship between market returns and government payments. The results indicate that farmland values are more responsive to changes in market returns than in government payments, but both are important drivers of land values. The elasticity of land values with respect to government payments is lower than has been observed in the United States. In addition, the partial decoupling of government payments has not reduced their impact on farmland values.
    Keywords: Farmland Values, Government Payments, Market Returns JEL Classifications:, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Land Economics/Use,
    Date: 2012–04
  11. By: Tisdell, Clement A.
    Abstract: The gradualism of economic reforms in China and Vietnam (especially in China, which has led the way in this regard) has been commented on favourably by many analysts studying transitional economies. Early market reforms in China and Vietnam were constrained by political considerations and consequently, began in agriculture and in China’s case, in rural areas with the development of town-and-village enterprises as well. It is argued that at the time when the reforms began, they were socially responsible. However, they have created a legacy which has resulted in agricultural land disputes and many town-and-village enterprises now face new economic challenges resulting in social conflict as the structure of China’s economy alters and greater market competition occurs. A further relevant policy issue which is discussed is whether commercial industrialised farming should be encouraged at the expense of the existing predominantly small-scale household farming in China and Vietnam. At present, titles to agricultural land continue to be held by village councils and villagers only have conditional user rights to the land allocated to them. These rights can be taken away by village councils and the use of the land involved can be reallocated which has been increasingly necessary with structural economic change in China and Vietnam. Some villagers believe that their land is taken unfairly and that they are not adequately compensated for its loss. Why this problem exists and the difficulties of solving it are given particular consideration
    Keywords: China, commercialisation of agriculture, economic reform, land rights, town-and-village enterprises, transitional economies, Vietnam., Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, P21, P25, P31, P32,
    Date: 2012–04
  12. By: Cairns, Alexander; Meilke, Karl D.
    Abstract: In the mid-2000’s, Goldman Sachs identified two groups of emerging economies known as the BRICs and the Next-11. Primarily selected on the basis of having large populations, these countries were heralded as the growth centres of the future with the potential to stimulate increased demand for a wide range of commodities, including food. This study uses an import demand model to estimate how income influences per capita expenditure on agrifood imports in 63 countries. The findings suggest that as groups the BRICs and N-11 do not di↵er from other low, middle, or high income countries with respect to their import behaviour. However, disaggregation of the two groups reveals significantly larger expenditure elasticities for China, India, South Korea and Vietnam. A forecasting exercise reveals the capacity of income and population growth in China, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Korea and Vietnam to substantially increase their expenditure on imported agrifood products.
    Keywords: Next-11, BRICs, trade, agrifood, imports, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2012–04
  13. By: Raghuram Rajan; Rodney Ramcharan
    Abstract: Does credit availability exacerbate asset price inflation? What channels could it work through? What are the long run consequences? In this paper we address these questions by examining the farm land price boom (and bust) in the United States that preceded the Great Depression. We find that credit availability likely had a direct effect on inflating land prices. Credit availability may have also amplified the relationship between the perceived improvement in fundamentals and land prices. When the perceived fundamentals soured, however, areas with higher ex ante credit availability suffered a greater fall in land prices, and experienced higher bank failure rates. Land prices stayed low for a number of decades after the bust in areas that had higher credit availability, suggesting that the effects of booms and busts induced by credit availability might be persistent. We draw lessons for regulatory policy.
    JEL: G01 G21 N1
    Date: 2012–04
  14. By: Jacobson, Larry D.; Schmidt, David R.; Lazarus, William F.; Koehler, Robert
    Abstract: Written for presentation at the 2011 ASABE Annual International Meeting Sponsored by ASABE Gault House, Louisville, Kentucky August 7 – 10, 2011
    Keywords: Swine Housing, Energy, Emissions, Environmental Footprint, Economic Viability, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries,
    Date: 2011–08
  15. By: Allen Blackman
    Abstract: Rigorous, objective evaluation of forest conservation policies in developing countries is needed to ensure that the limited financial, human, and political resources devoted to these policies are put to good use. Yet such evaluations remain uncommon. Recent advances in conservation best practices, the widening availability of high-resolution remotely sensed land-cover data, and the dissemination of geographic information system capacity have created significant opportunities to reverse this trend. This paper provides a nontechnical introduction and practical guide to a relatively low cost method that relies on remote sensing data to support ex-post analysis of forest conservation policies. It describes the defining features of this approach, catalogues and briefly reviews the studies that have used it, discusses the requisite data, explains the principal challenges to its use and the empirical strategies to overcome them, provides some practical guidance on modeling choices, and describes in detail two recent case studies.
    Keywords: forest conservation policy; evaluation; literature review; reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation
    JEL: Q23 Q28 Q56 Q57
    Date: 2012–03
  16. By: Tisdell, Clement A.
    Abstract: Some wildlife species are agricultural pests (or otherwise a problem) but their populations are often valued by other than agriculturalists or by those not adversely affected by them directly. For non-farmers, the population levels of such wildlife are frequently pure public goods. This is one source of market failure in the economically optimal social control of an (agricultural) pest of this type. Secondly, if the species is geographically mobile, externalities occur between farmers (or other individuals) in the control of the species, and individuals ignore these spillovers in controlling pest species. Simple analysis is used to show that depending on the relative strength of these opposing types of market failure, farmers (or others) may excessively reduce or insufficiently decrease the population of a wildlife species from a social economic point of view based on the application of the potential Paretian improvement criterion. After providing some background on general methods of wildlife control and their effectiveness, the economic optimality of this control is assessed using simple models. The limitations of this modelling are then discussed paying particular attention to ‘newly emerging’ diseases in wildlife that in some cases impact humans, for example, Henipavirus carried by flying foxes.
    Keywords: agriculture, market failure, pest control, pure public goods, West Bengal, wildlife, zoonoses., Environmental Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2011–09
  17. By: Chen, Yiu Por (Vincent) (University of Sheffield)
    Abstract: This paper provides a systematic analysis of the way shifts in property utilization rights in China induced another sequence of institutional changes that led to the rise of rural-urban labor migration from 1980 to 1984, a critical period in the country's market transition. I show that the 1980s' Household Responsibility System (HRS), which brought family farming back from the communal system, endowed rural households not only with land use rights, but also with de facto labor allocation rights. These shifts in property relations promoted a growth in agricultural market size as well as the emergence of intraprovincial non-hukou rural-urban migration, which may have made labor retention policies such as the small township strategy ineffective, and may have given the government an incentive to deregulate its subsequent labor market policy.
    Keywords: rural-urban migration, labor mobility, undocumented labor, institutional change
    JEL: J43 J61 R23 R52 R58
    Date: 2012–04
  18. By: Viju, Crina; Yeung, May T.; Kerr, William A.
    Abstract: Until there is a successful challenge at the WTO, the EU policy on LLP is likely to remain in place. Under this policy, there is a zero tolerance level for GM material that has not received EU authorization. Zero tolerance, however, has to be operationalized – what does an exporting country have to do to prove it is in compliance with zero tolerance? The Protocol on Triffid flax was formally proposed by the Canadian flax industry, not the Canadian government, and accepted by the European Commission. It entails an extensive and costly testing regime all along the flaxseed supply chain. Canadian exports of flaxseed have resumed to the EU. The Protocol provides sufficient transparency for firms to be willing to engage in international transactions. This suggests that as long as the EU regime on LLP remains in place, firms exporting agricultural products to the EU should plan for a LLP event and develop plans as to how exports can come into compliance with the EU’s zero tolerance policy. The sooner a plan is accepted, the sooner exports can resume and the disruption to trade minimised.
    Keywords: GMO, EU, Triffid, NTB, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2011–10
  19. By: Viju, Crina; Yeung, May T.; Kerr, William A.
    Abstract: Public policy makers in Canada should expect the US to object to the extension of protection to EU GIs in the CETA. The expected gains made in other areas of the CETA for agreeing to protect EU GIs need to be weighed carefully against the potential cost of trade actions through NAFTA. The NAFTA has relatively strong commitments pertaining to intellectual property, although they remain largely untested. In the case of geographical indicators, the NAFTA commitments are structured around the trademark system used by the US and Canada. Other aspects of the NAFTA, such as the investment provisions, may also be used to challenge the negative impact of Canada granting intellectual property protection to GIs.
    Keywords: GIs, market access, EU, PTA, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2012–03
  20. By: Brunello, Giorgio (University of Padova); De Paola, Maria (University of Calabria); Labartino, Giovanna (IRVAPP)
    Abstract: We use scanner data of supermarket sales to investigate the effects of the EU School Fruit campaign, conducted in a sample of primary schools in the city of Rome during 2010 and 2011, on the consumption of unhealthy snacks. We allocate supermarkets to treatment and control groups depending on whether they are located or not near treated schools and estimate the causal effect of the program by comparing the changes in the sales of snacks in treated stores with the changes in control stores. We find evidence that the campaign reduced the consumption of unhealthy snacks bought in stores located in high income areas. No effect is found in poorer areas. Repeated treatment does not strengthen the effects of the program.
    Keywords: EU School Fruit campaign, junk food, Rome
    JEL: I18
    Date: 2012–04
  21. By: Poudel, Diwakar (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Sandal, Leif K. (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Kvamsdal, Sturla F. (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: In commercial fisheries, stock collapse is an intrinsic problem caused by overexploitation or due to pure stochasticity. To analyze the risk of stock collapse, we apply a relatively simple Monte Carlo approach which can capture complex stock dynamics. We use an economic model with downward sloping demand and stock dependent costs. First, we derive an optimal exploitation policy as a feedback control rule and analyze the effects of stochasticity. We observe that the stochastic solution is more conservative compared to the deterministic solution at low level of stochasticity. For moderate level of stochasticity, a more myopic exploitation is optimal at small stock and conservative at large stock level. For relatively high stochasticity, one should be myopic in exploitation. Then, we simulate the system forward in time with the optimal solution. In simulated paths, some stock recovered while others collapsed. From the simulation approach, we estimate the probability of stock collapse and characterize the long term stable region.
    Keywords: Stochasticity; Ensemble Kalman filter; Stock Collapse; Probability
    JEL: C61 Q22 Q57
    Date: 2012–04–27
  22. By: K. Herve DAKPO; Pascale COMBES MOTEL (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International); Johanna CHOUMERT (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)
    Abstract: Although widely studied, deforestation remains a topical and typical issue. The relationship between economic development and deforestation is still at stake. This paper presents a meta-analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) studies for deforestation. Using 71 studies, offering 631 estimations, we shed light on why EKC results differ. We investigate the incidence of choices made by authors (econometric strategy, deforestation measure, temporal coverage, geographical area, measure of economic development…) on the probability of finding an EKC. After a phase of work corroborating the EKC, we find a turning point after the year 2001. Building on our results, we conclude that the EKC story will not fade until theoretical alternatives will be provided.
    Keywords: Meta-Analysis; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Deforestation, development
    JEL: O13 Q23 C8 C12
    Date: 2012
  23. By: Nancy McCarthy; Paul Winters; Ana Maria Linares; Timothy Essam
    Abstract: Determining reasonable indicators for climate change projects is complicated by the long-term horizon of both mitigation and adaptation project impacts as well as the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts. Actions taken now are often designed to have an impact in the uncertain and distant future and may not directly mitigate or adapt to climate change, but be taken as a step to prepare for future actions. Further complicating identification of indicators is the fact that there is a spectrum of projects, from the pure climate change-focused projects to those that provide climate change benefits as one part of an overall development program, and finally to those with only incidental indirect effects. The objective of this document is to discuss SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Timely) indicators that can be used for assessing the impact of climate change projects, including those that seek to adapt to the expected impacts of climate change and those that promote low carbon emissions growth strategies to mitigate greenhouse gases.
    Keywords: climate chance, indicators, development effectiveness, impact evaluation
    JEL: H43 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2012–04
  24. By: Hernandez-Hernandez, Emilio; Sam, Abdoul G.; Gonzalez-Vega, Claudio; Chen, Joyce J.
    Abstract: The literature suggests Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT) and remittances may protect poor households from income risk. We present a theoretical framework that explores how this ‘insurance’ effect can change households’ decision to apply for a loan via changes in credit demand and supply. Empirical evidence from poor rural households in Nicaragua shows CCTs did not affect loan requests while remittances increased them. The risk protection provided by remittances seems stronger, relative to CCTs, such that improvements on borrowers’ expected marginal returns to a loan or on creditworthiness more than offset decreasing returns to additional income. This suggests those transfers that best protect households from income risk favor financial deepening in the context of segmented markets.
    Keywords: Credit markets; migration; conditional cash transfers; Nicaragua
    JEL: F22 O15 D14
    Date: 2012–02–13

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