New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2012‒01‒25
thirty papers chosen by

  1. The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy: By Oktaviani, Rina; Amaliah, Syarifah; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.
  2. Moving off the farm: Land institutions to facilitate structural transformation and agricultural productivity growth in China By Deininger, Klaus; Jin, Songqing; Xia, Fang
  3. Responding to land degradation in the highlands of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: By Kumasi, Tyhra Carolyn; Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo
  4. Climate change and floods in Yemen: Impacts on food security and options for adaptation By Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Robertson, Richard; Thiele, Rainer
  5. The broken broker system?: Transacting on agricultural wholesale markets in India (Uttarakhand) By Minten, Bart; Vandeplas, Anneleen; Swinnen, Johan F.M.
  6. The Impact of Information on the Willingness-to-Pay for Labeled Organic Food Products By Rousseau, Sandra; Vranken, Liesbet
  7. The Determinants of Food Prices: A Case Study of Pakistan By Henna Ahsan; Zainab Iftikhar; M. Ali Kemal
  8. The quiet revolution in agrifood value chains in Asia: The case of increasing quality in rice markets in Bangladesh By Minten, Bart; Murshid, K.A.S.; Reardon, Thomas
  9. Agricultural productivity and policies in Sub-Saharan Africa: By Yu, Bingxin; Nin-Pratt, Alejandro
  10. The Role of Human Development on Deforestation in Africa: A Modelling-Based Approach By Brian A., Jingwa; Simplice A., Asongu
  11. Resource-rich yet malnourished: Analysis of the demand for food nutrients in the Democratic Republic of Congo By Ulimwengu, John; Roberts, Cleo; Randriamamonjy, Josee
  12. Willingness to pay for environmental attributes of non-food products: a real choice experiment By Michaud, C.; Llerena, D.; Joly, I.
  13. Adaptation to climate change, Vulnerability and Micro- Insurance Business: A Study on Forest Dependent Communities in Drought prone areas of West Bengal, India By Jyotish Prakash Basu
  14. Common-pool resources, livelihoods, and resilience: Critical challenges for governance in Cambodia By Ratner, Blake D.
  15. Optimal food price stabilization in a small open developing country By Gouel, Christophe; Jean, Sebastien
  16. Unintended effects of urbanization in China: Land use spillovers and soil carbon loss By Li, Man; Wu, JunJie; Deng, Xiangzheng
  17. Propagation Shocks to Food and Energy Prices: an International Comparison By Michael Pedersen
  18. Putting gender on the map: Methods for mapping gendered farm management systems in Sub-Saharan Africa By Meinzen-Dick, Ruth; van Koppen, Barbara; Behrman, Julia; Karelina, Zhenya; Akamandisa, Vincent; Hope, Lesley; Wielgosz, Ben
  19. Emerging policies and partnerships under CAADP: Implications for long-term growth, food security, and poverty reduction By Badiane, Ousmane; Odjo, Sunday; Ulimwengu, John
  20. Potential climate effects on Japanese rice productivity By Tanaka, Kenta; Managi, Shunsuke; Kondo, Katsunobu; Masuda, Kiyotaka; Yamamoto, Yasutaka
  21. Agricultural Productivity Across Prussia During the Industrial Revolution: A ThŸnen Perspective By Michael Kopsidis; Nikolaus Wolf
  22. The impact of high and volatile commodity prices on public finances: Evidence from developing countries By Hélène Ehrhart; Samuel Guerineau
  23. Landownership Concentration and the Expansion of Education By Francesco Cinnirella; Erik Hornung
  24. Manufacturing Agrarian Change - Agricultural production, inter-sectoral learning and technological capabilities By Antonio Andreoni
  25. Should Turkey Adopt GM Crops? A Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation for the Case of Cotton Farming in Turkey By Cem Iskender Aydin; Gokhan Ozertan; Begum Ozkaynak
  26. Household preferences and governance of water services: A hedonic analysis from rural Guatemala By Vásquez, William F.
  27. Maintaining the Common Pool: Voluntary Water Conservation in Response to Increasing Scarcity By Emma Aisbett; Ralf Steinhauser
  28. Weather insurance design with optimal hedging effectiveness By Kapphan, Ines
  29. A Mass Phenomenon: The Social Evolution of Obesity By Strulik, Holger
  30. Have policy distortion spilled overacross wine markets ? : evidence from the french wine sector By Evens Saliès; Bodo Steiner

  1. By: Oktaviani, Rina; Amaliah, Syarifah; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.
    Abstract: Global climate change influences the economic performance of all countries, and Indonesia is no exception. Under climate change, Indonesia is predicted to experience temperature increases of approximately 0.8°C by 2030. Moreover, rainfall patterns are predicted to change, with the rainy season ending earlier and the length of the rainy season becoming shorter. Climate change affects all economic sectors, but the agricultural sector is generally the hardest hit in terms of the number of poor affected. We assess climate change impacts for Indonesia using an Indonesian computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that focuses on the agricultural sector. Climate change input data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade. Our results show that by 2030, global climate change will have a significant and negative effect on the Indonesian economy as a whole. In these projections, we see important impacts for particular sectors in the CGE model, especially for the agricultural sector (both producers and consumers) and in rural areas and for poorer households. Real gross domestic product (GDP) drops slightly and the consumer price index (CPI) increases by a small amount. Negative GDP growth is chiefly the result of adverse impacts on agriculture and agro-based industries, with the largest impact for soybeans, rice, and paddy (unmilled rice). Decreasing output of paddy and rice will adversely affect the country's food security. Domestic prices for paddy and rice increase significantly, pushing up the CPI. Taking international food price shocks into account would increase negative impacts. We find that addressing constraints to agricultural productivity growth through increased public agricultural research investments will be important to counteract adverse impacts of climate change. Enhanced awareness of both government agencies and farmers will be needed for the rural economy to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change.
    Keywords: Climate change, Economy, Impact model, national CGE model, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling,
    Date: 2011
  2. By: Deininger, Klaus; Jin, Songqing; Xia, Fang
    Abstract: Agriculture has made major contributions to China's economic growth and poverty reduction, but the literature has rarely focused on the institutional factors that might underpin such structural transformation and productivity. This paper aims to fill that gap. Drawing on an 8-year panel of 1,200 households in six key provinces, it explores the impact of government land reallocations and formal land-use certificates on agricultural productivity growth, as well as the likelihood of households to exit from agriculture or send family members to the non-farm sector. It finds that land tenure insecurity, measured by the history of past land reallocations, discourages households from quitting agriculture. The recognitionof land rights through formal certificates encourages the temporary migration of rural labor. Both factors have a large impact on productivity (at about 30 percent each), mainly by encouraging market-based land transfers. A sustained increase in non-agricultural opportunities will likely reinforce the importance of secure land tenure, which is a precondition for successful structural transformation and continued economic attractiveness of rural areas.
    Keywords: Labor Policies,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Growth,Rural Poverty Reduction
    Date: 2012–01–01
  3. By: Kumasi, Tyhra Carolyn; Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo
    Abstract: Improving the long-term sustainability and resilience of smallholder agriculture in Africa is highly dependent on conserving or improving the quality of the natural resource. Conservation agriculture is conceived around more integrated and effective management strategies for provisioning both food and other ecosystem services. If unattended to, land degradation would reduce agricultural productivity and increase pressure on marginal environments in the Tigray highlands of Ethiopia, adversely affecting food security and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. This paper answers some pertinent questions about mass mobilization of free compulsory labor for ecological restoration in Tigray. It details perception of changes in climate; the process of collective decisionmaking; resistance, documentation, and enforcement of rules; methods of conflict resolution; knowledge and information networks; arrangements for benefit sharing of communal resources; and the role of gender in mass mobilization for communal work. We analyzed data collected from 20 villages in 3 districts in the Tigray region through a household survey using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions, and personal observations. The results reveal that the people are motivated to provide their free labor to restore the ecology to increase agricultural productivity and production to avoid food insecurity and improve their general livelihood. Availability of institutions in terms of grassroots organizations and rules and regulations was a major factor in the positive response to the call for action. The commitment of the government at both the national and local levels (through sensitization and mobilization for group formation and provision of tools and construction materials); the ethnic homogeneity of the population; and the existence of the Orthodox Church, where most of the people were members, were major factors for the success of the community mobilization for collective action in Tigray. Social networking with neighbors, the clergy, and leaders of grassroots organizations provided the knowledge and information on climate variability and solutions required to conserve the ecology and improve human livelihood. We also observed that there were no differences in gender division of labor except that women worked half the workload of men in a day; the women also did the cooking and cleaned up the surroundings after eating at the site. Both men and women played active roles in leadership with regard to mobilization of people, communal work planning and scheduling, conflict resolution, and sharing of community products. An impact assessment of the ecological conservation in Tigray on agricultural productivity and production and food security would be useful. It will be interesting to replicate the study in other areas in Ethiopia and other countries where the societies may not be homogenous to find out the level of commitment of the people to communal work.
    Keywords: Collective action, ecological restoration, free labor, Land degradation,
    Date: 2011
  4. By: Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Robertson, Richard; Thiele, Rainer
    Abstract: This paper uses both a global and local perspective to assess the impacts of climate change on the Yemeni economy, agriculture, and household income and food security. The major impact channels of climate change are through changing world food prices as a result of global food scarcities, long-term local yield changes as a result of temperature and rainfall variations, and damages and losses of cropland, fruit trees, livestock, and infrastructure as a result of natural disasters such as recurrent storms and floods. Moreover, spatial variation in climate change impacts within Yemen means that such effects can vary across subnational regions. We develop a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model with six agroecological zones to capture linkages between climate change, production, and household incomes. We also capture changes in per capita calorie consumption in response to changing household expenditure for assessing changes in people's hunger situation as a measure for food security. Given the high uncertainty surrounding future global food prices and local yields, all simulations are run under two global climate scenarios. The results of the CGE simulations suggest that climate-change-induced higher global prices for food will lower Yemen's overall GDP growth, raise agricultural GDP, decrease real household incomes, and increase the number of hungry people. Local impacts of climate change are different for the two climate scenarios. Overall, the long-term implications of climate change (local and global) lead to a total accumulated reduction of household welfare of between US$5.7 and $9.2 billion by 2050 under MIR or CSI conditions, respectively. Moreover, between 80,000 and 270,000 people could go hungry due to climate change. Rural households are harder hit than urban households, and among the rural households the non-farm households suffer most. This household group is projected to lose an accumulated 3.5 to 5.7 billion US$ as a consequence of longer term climate change by 2050. In addition to the longer-term climate change effects, climate variability is shown to induce heavy economic losses and spikes in food insecurity. The impact assessment of the October 2008 tropical storm and floods in the Wadi Hadramout puts the total cumulated real income loss over the period 2008-12 at 180 percent of pre-flood agricultural value added. Due to the direct flood loss, farmers in the flooding areas suffer most in the year of the flood occurrence, where the percentage of hungry people living from farming spiked by about 15 percentage points as an immediate result of the flood. Action to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and variability should to be taken on the global and local level. A global action plan for improving food security combined with a better integration of climate change in national development strategies, agricultural and rural policies, and disaster risk management and social protection policies will be keys for improving the resilience of Yemen and Yemenis to climate change.
    Keywords: Climate change, Development, flood, food security, Growth, Hunger,
    Date: 2011
  5. By: Minten, Bart; Vandeplas, Anneleen; Swinnen, Johan F.M.
    Abstract: There is a vigorous debate on liberalization of the heavily regulated agricultural markets in India. A crucial institutional characteristic is the role of state-regulated brokers in wholesale markets. Relying on data from a unique survey in Uttarakhand, a state in North India, we find that regulations on margins are ineffective, since most brokers charge rates that significantly exceed the regulated ones. We also find that a majority of farmers self-select into long-term relationships with brokers. These relationships allow some of the farmers to interlink credit and insurance markets to the agricultural output market. This interlinkage does not, however, appear to be an instrument for farmer exploitation (since it does not lead to worse inputs, higher interest rates, or lower implicit output prices) but is seemingly an extra service provided by brokers to establish farmer loyalty and thereby ensure future supplies.
    Keywords: Agricultural marketing, brokers, interlinkages,
    Date: 2011
  6. By: Rousseau, Sandra (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB), Belgium); Vranken, Liesbet
    Abstract: Organic labels potentially play an important role in shaping consumer preferences for organic food products. Information implied by the presence of labels can be used by consumers to facilitate their consumption decisions. Therefore, we investigate the influence of the provision of objective information on the willingness-to-pay of consumers for labeled organic apples in Flanders (Belgium). Initially, we find that Flemish consumers are willing to pay a positive price premium of approximately 33 eurocent per kilogram for labeled organic apples. After the provision of information on the actual environmental and health effects of organic apple production, this price premium becomes even more pronounced and amounts to approximately 56 eurocent per kilogram.
    Keywords: Organic food production; willingness-to-pay; choice experiment; apples
    Date: 2011–05
  7. By: Henna Ahsan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.); Zainab Iftikhar (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.); M. Ali Kemal (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)
    Abstract: Controlling prices is one of the major tasks for the macroeconomic policy-makers. The recent oil price hike that shifted the policy towards biofuels and some natural calamities increased food prices around the world. This paper analyses the demand- and supply-side factors that affect food prices in Pakistan. Long-run relationship is analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the period 1970 to 2008. The result indicates that supplyside factors (subsidies and world food prices) have a significant impact on food prices , whereas demand-side factors, such as money supply, are the main cause of the increase in food prices in the short as well as the long run. The error correction is statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role to restore the long-run equilibrium.
    Keywords: Food Prices, ARDL Approach, Pakistan
    Date: 2011
  8. By: Minten, Bart; Murshid, K.A.S.; Reardon, Thomas
    Abstract: In Bangladesh—one of the poorest countries in Asia, where rice accounts for almost 70 percent of consumers' caloric intake—the share of the less expensive, low-quality coarse rice is shown to be rapidly decreasing in rice markets and the quality premium for the best-quality rice has been consistently on the rise in the last decades. It thus seems that the role of rice as only a cheap staple food is being redefined. The off-farm share in the final consumer price increases from 27 percent to 35 percent to 48 percent for low-, medium-, and high-quality rice, respectively, and the increasing demand for higher quality is thus seemingly associated with a more important off-farm food sector—in particular, milling, retailing, and branding—as well as a transformed milling industry. We further find that the labor rewards for and the technical efficiency of growing different rice qualities are not significantly different, and farmers do not benefit directly from consumers' increased willingness to pay for higher rice quality.
    Keywords: Markets, milling, Quality, rice, value chains,
    Date: 2011
  9. By: Yu, Bingxin; Nin-Pratt, Alejandro
    Abstract: We analyze the evolution of Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA's) agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) over the past 45 years, looking for evidence of recent changes in growth patterns using an improved nonparametric Malmquist index. Our TFP estimates show a remarkable recovery in the performance of SSA's agriculture between 1984 and 2006 after a long period of poor performance and decline. That recovery is the consequence of improved efficiency in production, resulting from changes in the output structure and an adjustment in the use of inputs. Policy interventions, including fiscal, trade, and sector-specific policies, appear to have played an important role in improving agricultural performance. Despite the improved agricultural performance, economies in SSA face serious challenges to sustain growth. Among these are the small contribution of technological change to TFP growth in the past, the large tax burden imposed by remaining distortions, and the challenge of population growth.
    Keywords: Agriculture, Efficiency, Malmquist index, policy, Technical change, Total factor productivity,
    Date: 2011
  10. By: Brian A., Jingwa; Simplice A., Asongu
    Abstract: The rate of deforestation in Africa is of paramount concern not only to the future of Africa, but also to the world. This study uses country-level data to model changes in forest area over an 18 year period (1990-2007) in 35 African countries and investigates the role played by important development indicators of human development. The results reveal that the net loss of forests was 0.19% every year between 1990 and 2007. This implies a total of 3.42% of forest was lost in the 18 year period. This is more in line with estimates obtained by the Food and Agricultural Organization (0.56% between1990-2000 and 0.49% between 2000-2010). Human development which involves life expectancy, education and income is found to have a positive effect on forest growth and conservation, while cutting down trees for wood fuel is a significant cause of deforestation. Using generalized linear mixed models and generalised estimating equations, we were able to calculate expected estimates of forest area for 2010, 2020 and 2030 under the assumption that nothing is done to change observed trends. In many countries, progress has been made in reforestation, forest protection and conservation. However, if indiscriminate cutting down of trees is not checked, many countries will lose most or all of their forests by 2030.
    Keywords: Deforestation; Environment; Human development index; Agriculture; Data modelling; Africa
    JEL: Q23 C39 C50 I0 O13 C33
    Date: 2012–01–12
  11. By: Ulimwengu, John; Roberts, Cleo; Randriamamonjy, Josee
    Abstract: Endowed with 80 million hectares of arable land (of which only 10 percent are used), diverse climatic conditions, and abundant water resources, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has the potential to become the breadbasket of the entire African continent. Instead, the country is one of the most affected by malnutrition. The DRC has the highest number of undernourished persons in Africa and the highest prevalence of malnutrition in the world. As a result, child stunting and infant mortality rates in the DRC are also among the highest in the world. Overall, at least 50 percent of the population is deficient in vitamin B12, calories, riboflavin, iron, vitamin E, folate, and zinc; vitamins A, C, and B6, for which palm oil and cassava are the main sources, are generally consumed in sufficient quantities. Across provinces, there is significant heterogeneity. All nutrients exhibit positive expenditure elasticities in both rural and urban areas; however, as expected, the expenditure elasticities of all nutrients are higher in urban areas than in rural areas. In rural areas, strategies to improve nutrition will need to use instruments that attack malnutrition directly rather than relying simply on rising incomes. With respect to prices, an increase in own price is expected to have a nonpositive effect on all nutrients. Our results also suggest significant substitution effects. Overall, our results highlight the paradox of the DRC, a country with huge potential for agricultural development but incapable of feeding itself in terms of both quantity and quality of nutrients.
    Keywords: Nutrients, elasticity, Poverty, demand, expenditure, price,
    Date: 2012
  12. By: Michaud, C.; Llerena, D.; Joly, I.
    Abstract: This paper investigates consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) a price premium for two environmental attributes of a non-food agricultural product. We study individual preferences for roses associated with an eco-label and a carbon footprint using an economic experiment combining discrete choice questions and real economic incentives involving real purchases of roses against cash. The data are analyzed with a mixed logit model and reveal significant premiums for both environmental attributes of the product.
    JEL: D12 C91 C25 Q10
    Date: 2012
  13. By: Jyotish Prakash Basu (Associate Professor& Head, Dept. of Economics, West Bengal State University, Email:
    Abstract: There are two main responses to climate change. One is adaptation and other is mitigation. The adaptation process includes three essential stages i.e. vulnerability assessment, capacity building and implementation of adaptation measures. The fundamental goal of adaptation strategies is the reduction of the vulnerabilities to climate-induced change. In India 700 million rural populations directly depend on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, forest and fisheries and natural resources such as water, biodiversity, mangroves, coastal zones, and grass lands for their subsistence and livelihood. Forests are not just carbon stores. Forests are home to the people who are entirely or partly dependent on forests for their livelihood. In India about 300 million rural poor are dependent on forest for livelihood and more than half of them are tribal and depend on non-timber forest products (NTFPs). Forest as the vulnerable sector and constitute an integral part of social life of tribals and others living in and around forest areas and contribute substantially to the food supply and livelihood security of tribal populations in India. The objectives of the paper are four fold. First, the paper attempts to measure quantitative vulnerability assessment for the forest dependent communities where drought hazards are prevalent and to identify household adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability due to climate change. Second, the paper tries to estimate the factors responsible for decisions of adaptation to climate change using probabilistic model of Heckman’s two-step process. Third, the paper tries to discuss how Security Diagram Approach and Fuzzy Inference system are used to measure drought vulnerability in India. Lastly, the paper also examines the development policies of the Government of India including the role of micro-insurance and weather-indexed insurance to enhance the resilience of climate change. The paper is an empirical study based on data collected through field survey. This study covers four villages- Rangakula, Khayarakura, Dhansimla and Bandhgaba, both are scheduled tribal based villages located in Sonamukhi forest area in the District of Bankura, one of the drought prone districts of West Bengal, consisting of 100 households in 2010. Socio-Economic Vulnerability Assessment for each village has been calculated. In this study, six factors i.e., public health facility, sanitation, educational status; live stock assets, food sufficiency from agriculture and awareness to climate change have been incorporated for socioeconomic vulnerability assessment of each village. Vulnerability Indices have been calculated using Three Categorized Ranking Method (TCR) assigning scores of 1 to 3, 1 being the least vulnerable. Besides, this paper has identified the households’ adaptation strategies like out-migration; formation of self-help group (SHGs), water harvesting, accessibility of non-timber forest products and livestock rearing. The paper has identified key vulnerabilities as education, health hygiene and food insufficiency. The socio-economic factors and climatic factors both affect the decisions of adaptations to climate change. Micro4 insurance and weather indexed insurance are providing services to marginalized section of the community in developing countries including India. The Government of India has undertaken little policy action to reduce climate-related vulnerability particularly in the drought- prone regions of West Bengal. This paper has important policy implications for poverty, livelihood vulnerability and migration.
    Keywords: vulnerability, adaptation, security diagram, socio-economic vulnerability assessment, fuzzy inference system, migration, micro-insurance
    JEL: Q54 O11 O13
    Date: 2011–11
  14. By: Ratner, Blake D.
    Abstract: Common-pool resource management is a critical element in the interlocked challenges of food security, nutrition, poverty reduction, and environmental sustainability. This paper examines strategic policy choices and governance challenges facing Cambodia's forests and fisheries, the most economically important subsectors of agriculture that rely on common-pool resources. It then outlines policy priorities for institutional development to achieve improvements in implementing these goals. The core argument is that (1) policy support for community-based management in forestry and fisheries requires explicit prioritization to protect against threats from other types of private- and public-sector investment; and (2) the success of these initiatives depends on more systemic governance reforms that address issues of stakeholder representation, mechanisms of accountability, and institutional capacity.
    Keywords: Development policy, environmental security, Fisheries, food security, forestry, Governance, Natural resources, social-ecological resilience,
    Date: 2011
  15. By: Gouel, Christophe; Jean, Sebastien
    Abstract: In poor countries, most governments implement policies aiming to stabilize the prices of staple foods, which often include storage and trade measures insulating their domestic market from the world market. It is of crucial importance to understand the precise motivations and efficiency of those interventions, because they can have consequences worldwide. This paper addresses those issues by analyzing the case of a small, open developing country confronted by shocks to both the crop yield and foreign price. In this model, government interventions may be justified by the lack of an insurance market for food prices. Considering this market imperfection, the authors design optimal public interventions through trade and storage policies. They show that an optimal trade policy largely consists of subsidizing imports and taxing exports, which benefits consumers at the expense of producers. Import subsidies alleviate the non-negativity of food storage. In other words, when stocks are exhausted, subsidizing imports prevents domestic price spikes. One striking result: an optimal storage policy on its own is detrimental to consumers, since its stabilizing benefits leak into the world market and it raises the average domestic price. By contrast, an optimal combination of storage and trade policies results in a powerful stabilizing effect for domestic food prices.
    Keywords: Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Access to Markets,Trade Policy
    Date: 2012–01–01
  16. By: Li, Man; Wu, JunJie; Deng, Xiangzheng
    Abstract: This paper uses a national-level geographic information system database on land use, weather conditions, land quality, soil organic carbon (SOC), topographic features, and economic variables to analyze the major drivers of land use change and the resulting impact on soil carbon storage in China. The framework developed in this study includes two main components. One is a spatial panel multinomial logit land use model that takes into account the spatial and temporal dependence of land use choices explicitly. The other is a statistical causal evaluation model that estimates the effect of land use change on SOC density. Results indicate that local economic growth, as measured by county-level gross domestic product, was a major cause of urban development and grassland conversions. Rapid expansion of road networks, promoted by massive public investment, increased the conversion of forests, grassland, and unused land to crop production and urban development. Urbanization had significant secondary ripple effects in terms of both indirect land use change and soil carbon loss. Some of the soil carbon loss may be irreversible, at least in the short run.
    Keywords: Land use, propensity score-matching, road density, soil organic carbon, spatial panel,
    Date: 2011
  17. By: Michael Pedersen
    Abstract: The present paper analyzes propagation of shocks to food and energy prices in 46 countries with data from the period 1999-2010. The empirical evidence suggests that in only one of the countries considered, a shock to the price of either energy or food shows no propagation to the prices of the goods and services included in the core inflation measure. In general, the propagation effect of food price shocks is larger than that of energy price shocks. Emerging economies are more affected by propagation than advanced ones. The results advocate that policy makers concerned with price stability should pay special attention to shocks affecting domestic food prices.
    Date: 2011–12
  18. By: Meinzen-Dick, Ruth; van Koppen, Barbara; Behrman, Julia; Karelina, Zhenya; Akamandisa, Vincent; Hope, Lesley; Wielgosz, Ben
    Abstract: Although the different roles of men and women in agriculture in different parts of Sub-Saharan Africa have been widely acknowledged, there have not been consistent efforts to collect data on these patterns. This paper presents a way of classifying gendered farm management systems and then describes pilots of four different approaches to collecting and georeferencing information on the dominant pattern in each area. Case studies from existing literature provided valuable insights but represent a time-consuming method, limited in spatial coverage and often leaving gaps because the original study authors did not report on all of the aspects of interest for a gendered farm management systems analysis. Expert consultations conducted in Ghana and Zambia allowed for dialogue among participants during map development, permitting them to explore nuances and dynamics. However, this technique may be restricted in scale to one country at a time, limiting cross-national comparison. An open online survey, or crowdsourcing, of the information tapped into a wide range of expertise, providing difficult-to-obtain widespread coverage, but had inconsistent data quality. Mapping of georeferenced information from nationally representative data could potentially provide widespread and relatively accurate data, but thus far the relevant underlying data have not been consistently included in large-scale surveys. Gender mapping offers an important step toward greater awareness of the diverse gender roles in agricultural farm management systems, but gaps remain between field reality and the understanding of gender relations in research, on the one hand, and between the researchers‘ understanding and what can be displayed on a map, on the other. Addressing these gaps requires developing a consensus on the key variables that characterize gendered farming systems, collecting these data systematically, and then linking the data to other spatial information for use in planning and prioritizing development interventions.
    Keywords: farm management systems, Gender, georeferencing,
    Date: 2012
  19. By: Badiane, Ousmane; Odjo, Sunday; Ulimwengu, John
    Abstract: The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) is one of the main components of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD). CAADP is an initiative launched by the African Union Commission (AUC) in 2002 to serve as a continent-wide framework to facilitate faster agricultural growth and progress toward poverty reduction and food and nutrition security in Africa. CAADP seeks to promote policies and partnerships and raise investments in Africa's agricultural sector and achieve better development outcomes. It is an unprecedented, comprehensive effort to rally governments and other stakeholders around a set of key values and principles; create partnership mechanisms at continental, regional, and country levels; promote evidence-based and outcome-driven policy design and implementation; and establish inclusive dialogue and review processes to increase the effectiveness of the development process among African countries. This paper examines the new policy and investment planning and the review, dialogue, and partnership modalities and evaluates their likely impact on future growth and poverty-reduction outcomes.
    Keywords: Agriculture, CAADP, Growth, NEPAD, Nutrition, partnership, Poverty,
    Date: 2011
  20. By: Tanaka, Kenta; Managi, Shunsuke; Kondo, Katsunobu; Masuda, Kiyotaka; Yamamoto, Yasutaka
    Abstract: Adaptation to climate change has become an important policy question in recent years. Agriculture is the economic activity most sensitive to climate change. We evaluate the dynamic effects of productivity change and individual efforts to adapt to climate change. Adaptation actions in agriculture are evaluated to determine how the climate affects production efficiency. In this paper, we use the bi-directional distance function method to measure Japanese rice production loss due to climate. We find that 1) accumulated precipitation has the greatest effect on rice production efficiency and 2) the climate effect on rice production efficiency decreases over time. Our results empirically support the benefit of an adaptation approach.
    Keywords: Climate change; productivity analysis; agriculture
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2012–01–01
  21. By: Michael Kopsidis (IAMO Halle); Nikolaus Wolf (Humboldt-University Berlin and CEPR)
    Abstract: This paper explores the pattern of agricultural productivity across 19th century Prussia to gain new insights on the causes of the ÒLittle DivergenceÓ between European regions. We argue that access to urban demand was the dominant factor explaining the gradient of agricultural productivity as had been suggested much earlier theoretically by von ThŸnen (1826) and empirically by Engel (1867). This is in line with recent findings on a limited degree of interregional market integration in 19th century Prussia.
    Keywords: Prussia, Agricultural Productivity, Industrialisation, Market Access
    JEL: N53 O43 O47 Q13 R12
    Date: 2012–01
  22. By: Hélène Ehrhart (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Samuel Guerineau (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)
    Abstract: The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has renewed the policymakers' interest in three complementary issues: i) characteristics and determinants of commodity price instability, ii) its macroeconomic effects and, iii) the optimal policy responses to this instability. This work falls within the scope of studies dedicated to the macroeconomic effects of commodity price instability, but focuses on the impact on public finance, while existing works were concentrated on growth. This paper also differs from the few previous studies on two aspects. First, we test the impact of commodity price volatility rather than focusing only on price levels. Second, we use disaggregated data on tax revenues (income tax, consumption tax and international trade tax) and on commodity prices (agricultural products, minerals and energy) in order to identify transmission channels between world prices and public finance variables. Our empirical analysis is carried out on 90 developing countries over 1980-2008. We compute an index which measures the volatility of the international price of 41 commodities in the sectors of agriculture, minerals and energy. We find robust evidence that tax revenues in developing countries increase with the rise of commodity prices but that they are hurt by the volatility of these prices. More specifically, increased prices on imported commodities, lead to increased trade taxes and (to a smaller extent) consumption taxes being collected. Export prices are also positively associated with tax revenue collection but the channel is through income taxes and non-tax revenues rather than international trade taxes and consumption taxes. However, the volatility of commodity prices, both of imported and exported commodities, is robustly negatively affecting tax revenues. These findings point at the detrimental effect of commodity price volatility on developing countries public finances and highlight further the importance of finding ways to limit this price volatility and to implement policy measures to mitigate its adverse effects.
    Keywords: Price Volatility;Public Finance;Primary Commodities
    Date: 2012–01–10
  23. By: Francesco Cinnirella (Ifo Institute and CESifo, Munich); Erik Hornung (Ifo Institute, Munich)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of landownership concentration on school enrollment for nineteenth-century Prussia. Prussia is an interesting laboratory given its decentralized educational system and the presence of heterogeneous agricultural institutions. We find that landownership concentration, a proxy for the institution of serf labor, has a negative effect on schooling. This effect diminishes substantially in the second half of the century. Causality of this relationship is confirmed by introducing soil-texture to identify exogenous farm size variation. Panel estimates further rule out unobserved heterogeneity. We argue that serfdom hampered peasants’ demand for education whereas the successive emancipation triggered a demand thereof.
    Keywords: Land concentration, Institutions, Serfdom, Education, Prussian economic history
    JEL: O43 Q15 I25 N33
    Date: 2011–10
  24. By: Antonio Andreoni
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate how industrial development, manufacturing in particular, has been contributing to agrarian change. In order to address this issue, it analyzes the technical bases and structural specificities – i.e. time and scale constraints – of agricultural production. Technical change in agriculture involves both improvements in organic transformation processes – i.e. biological production – and in the mechanical functions that have to be performed for obtaining a certain output – i.e. agricultural work. The paper shows how in-farm technological capabilities building as well as inter-sectoral learning are necessary in order to acquire and adapt biological-chemical innovations and mechanical technologies. The analysis of agrarian technical change – both in-farm learning and inter-sectoral learning – is developed by integrating peasant studies with evolutionary approaches to economic development. The relationship between agrarian change and manufacturing development is highly context specific, thus comparative historical analysis is adopted in order to shed light on the abovementioned processes of learning. Building on the analysis of technological change in agriculture, the last part of the paper will focus on those transformative policies such as innovative ‘extension services’ which facilitate inter-sectoral learning and, in turn, allow the emergence of inter-sectoral commons. This concept identifies that specific bundle of technological capabilities which concentrate in certain areas of strong inter-sectoral interdependence as a result of inter-sectoral learning.
    JEL: O31 O33 Q12 Q16
    Date: 2011
  25. By: Cem Iskender Aydin; Gokhan Ozertan; Begum Ozkaynak
    Date: 2011–07
  26. By: Vásquez, William F.
    Abstract: This paper estimates hedonic models of rental prices to investigate household preferences regarding water services in rural Guatemala. Estimated values for water services are compared across municipal, private, and community-managed water utilities. Findings indicate that rural households value municipal water services but are indifferent between not having piped water and being connected to a private system. Moreover, the estimated value of community-managed services is negative, which suggests that rural households have an aversion to services managed at the community level. It is argued that the value households assign to water services reflects institutional costs imposed by the forms of service governance here analyzed.
    Keywords: hedonic analysis, household preferences, service governance, Water,
    Date: 2011
  27. By: Emma Aisbett (Australian National University); Ralf Steinhauser (Australian National University)
    Abstract: Water is a classic common pool resource, especially during drought. This paper studies the impact of changing storage levels on urban water usage in the context of a prolonged drought and an extensive public information campaign which emphasized communal responsibility for maintaining ‘dam levels’. We identify a substantial voluntary conservation response to changing storage levels. The paper thus contributes a rare piece of real-world, behavioral evidence that voluntary conservation varies with the need for such action. Our findings also imply that estimates of price elasticity may be biased and welfare costs of mandatory restrictions may be overstated in many studies.
    Keywords: common pool resources, voluntary conservation, warm glow, water use, demand management
    JEL: Q25 Q21 D64
    Date: 2011–09
  28. By: Kapphan, Ines
    Abstract: I construct index-based weather insurance contracts with optimal hedging effectiveness for the insured or maximal profits for the insurer. In contrast to earlier work, I refrain from imposing functional form assumptions on the stochastic relationship between weather and yield and from restricting attention to (piecewise) linear contracts. Instead, I derive the shape of the optimal weather insurance contracts empirically by non-parametrically estimating yield distributions conditional on weather. I find that the optimal pay-off structure is non-linear for the entire range of weather realizations. I measure risk reduction of optimal weather insurance contracts for different weather indices and levels of risk aversion. Considering profit-maximizing contracts, I find that at modest levels of risk aversion (coefficient of relative risk aversion around 2), a loading factor of 10% of the fair premium is possible such that the insurance contract remains attractive for the insured. With higher levels of risk aversion, loading of more than 50% becomes possible.
    Keywords: agricultural insurance; optimal insurance design; weather derivatives; weather risk; hedging effectiveness; loading of premium
    JEL: Q1 D81
    Date: 2011–06–01
  29. By: Strulik, Holger
    Abstract: This paper proposes a theory for the social evolution of obesity. It considers a society, in which individuals experience utility from consumption of food and non-food, the state of their health, and the evaluation of their appearance by others. The theory explains why, ceteris paribus, poor persons are more prone to be severely overweight although eating is expensive and how obesity occurs as a social phenomenon such that body mass continues to rise long after the initial cause (e.g. a lower price of food) is gone. The paper investigates the determinants of a steady-state at which the median citizen is overweight and how an originally lean society arrives at such a steady-state. Extensions of the theory towards dietary choice and the possibility to exercise in order to loose weight demonstrate robustness of the basic mechanism and provide further interesting results.
    Keywords: Obesity Epidemic, Social Dynamics, Social Multiplier, Income Gradient, Feeling Fat, Feeling Unhealthy, Fat Tax
    JEL: D11 I14 Z13
    Date: 2012–01
  30. By: Evens Saliès (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques); Bodo Steiner (University College Cork, Ireland)
    Abstract: This paper investigates cross-market effects of policy instruments that were implemented in the table and quality wine market as one of the pillars of market intervention in Europe’s Common Market Organisation (CMO) for wine. We explore two hypotheses regarding the spill-over of distillation policy distortions and quality downgrading. Empirical evidence from France, the largest producer of quality wines in Europe, provides support for the hypothesis that distillation policy distortions in the quality wine market have spilledover to the table wine market. As predicted by our second hypothesis, we find evidence for quality downgrading, a phenomenon that has so far received little attention in the wine economics literature.
    Keywords: Common market organization for wine, distillation, spill-over effects, quality downgrading, France, heterogeneous panel
    JEL: Q11 Q18
    Date: 2011–09

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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.