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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2011‒06‒11
twenty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Amani Elobeid (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Miguel Carriquiry (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Jacinto F. Fabiosa (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Kranti Mulik (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Dermot J. Hayes (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Bruce A. Babcock (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Jerome Dumortier; Francisco Rosas |
| Abstract: | This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world agriculture. The fourth scenario reintroduces biofuel tax credits and duties. Given that the baseline excludes these policies, the fourth scenario is an attempt to understand the impact of these policies under the market conditions that prevail in early 2011. A key to understanding the results of this fourth scenario is that in the absence of tax credits and duties, the mandate drives biofuel use. Therefore, when the tax credits and duties are reintroduced, the impacts are relatively small. In general, the results show that the entire international commodity market system is remarkably robust with respect to policy changes in one country or in one sector. The policy implication is that domestic policy changes implemented by a large agricultural producer like the United States can have fairly significant impacts on the aggregate world commodity markets. A second point that emerges from the results is that the law of unintended consequences is at work in world agriculture. For example, a U.S. nitrogen tax that might presumably be motivated for environmental benefit results in an increase in world greenhouse gas emissions. A similar situation occurs in the afforestation scenario in which crop production shifts from high-yielding land in the United States to low-yielding land and probably native vegetation in the rest of the world, resulting in an unintended increase in global greenhouse gas emissions. |
| Keywords: | afforestation, energy price, ethanol tax credit, fertilizer, partial equilibrium model, policy analysis. |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:11-wp524&r=agr |
| By: | Francisco H. G. Ferreira (World Bank); Anna Fruttero (World Bank); Phillippe Leite (World Bank); Leonardo Lucchetti (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) |
| Abstract: | Food price inflation in Brazil in the twelve months to June 2008 was 18 percent, while overall inflation was 5.3 percent. This paper uses spatially disaggregated monthly data on consumer prices and two different household surveys to estimate the welfare consequences of these food price increases, and their distribution across households. Because Brazil is a large food producer, with a predominantly wage-earning agricultural labor force, our estimates include general equilibrium effects on market and transfer incomes, as well as the standard estimates of changes in consumer surplus. While the expenditure (or consumer surplus) effects were large, negative and markedly regressive everywhere, the market income effect was positive and progressive, particularly in rural areas. Because of this effect on the rural poor, and of the partial protection afforded by increases in two large social assistance benefits, the overall impact of higher food prices in Brazil was U-shaped, with the middle-income groups suffering larger proportional losses than the very poor. Nevertheless, since Brazil is 80 percent urban, higher food prices still led to a greater incidence and depth of poverty at the national level. |
| Keywords: | Food prices, welfare, poverty, inequality, price change incidence curve, Brazil. |
| JEL: | D31 I38 O15 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2011-200&r=agr |
| By: | Amoah, Philip; Keraita, Bernard; Akple, Maxwell; Drechsel, Pay; Abaidoo, R. C.; Konradsen, F. (International Water Management Institute (IWMI)) |
| Keywords: | Urban agriculture / Consumers / Public health / Health hazards / Risk management / Vegetable growing / Wastewater irrigation / Irrigation methods / Irrigation practices / Wastewater treatment / Filtration / West Africa / Ghana |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:rerpts:h043829&r=agr |
| By: | Adriana Camacho; Emily Conover |
| Abstract: | Previous studies indicate that Colombian farmers make production decisions based on informal sources of information, such as family and neighbors or tradition. In this paper we randomize recipients of price and weather information using text messages (SMS technology). We find that relative to those farmers who did not receive SMS information, the farmers who did were more likely to provide market price information, had a narrower dispersion in the expected price of their crops, and had a significant reduction in crop loss. Farmers also report that text messages provide useful information, especially in regards to sale prices. We do not find, however, a significant difference between the treated and untreated farmers in the actual sale price, nor changes in farmers’ revenues or household expenditures. |
| JEL: | D62 Q11 Q12 Q13 |
| Date: | 2011–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4720&r=agr |
| By: | Timilsina, Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon; Shrestha, Ashish |
| Abstract: | The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels. However, this issue has not been fully investigated yet in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65 percent increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4 percent in 2020 from 2.4 percent in 2009. A doubling of oil price in 2020 from its baseline level, or a 230 percent increase from the 2009 level, would increase the global biofuel penetration in 2020 to 12.6 percent. The penetration of biofuels is highly sensitive to the substitution possibility between biofuels and their fossil fuel counterparts. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through diversion of food commodities and cropland toward the production of biofuels. |
| Keywords: | Energy Production and Transportation,Climate Change Economics,Markets and Market Access,Renewable Energy,Food&Beverage Industry |
| Date: | 2011–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5673&r=agr |
| By: | Muhammad Mahboob Ali (Atish Dipankar University of Science and Technology, Bangladesh); Anisul M. Islam (University of Houston-Downtown, USA) |
| Abstract: | Agribusiness is one of the most challenging businesses today. Bangladesh depends largely on agribusiness because agriculture still plays a dominant role in the economy. Given the high importance of this topic, this study has been undertaken in the context of ecological imbalances and global warming that is creating serious food insecurity. The authors’ argue that agrarian reform is required for increasing productivity in agricultural, strengthening agribusiness, efficient utilization of natural resources, and improved code of conduct for the organizations involved in the business processes. Agricultural products need financing as well as proper marketing strategies and better value chain needs to be created. Bangladesh can sustain long run macroeconomic stabilization by reducing deficit between demand and supply and achieving economic progress, and reducing unemployment and mass poverty through proper development and implementation of agro-business strategies. The growth of this business may also help improve the balance of trade position of the country. |
| Date: | 2011–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiu:abewps:87&r=agr |
| By: | Beegle, Kathleen; Carletto, Calogero; Himelein, Kristen |
| Abstract: | Despite the importance of agriculture to economic development, and a vast accompanying literature on the subject, little research has been done on the quality of the underlying data. Due to survey logistics, agricultural data are usually collected by asking respondents to recall the details of events occurring during past agricultural seasons that took place a number of months prior to the interview. This gap can lead to recall bias in reported data on agricultural activities. The problem is further complicated when interviews are conducted over the course of several months, thus leading to recall of variable length. To test for such recall bias, the length of time between harvest and interview is examined for three African countries with respect to several common agricultural input and harvest measures. The analysis shows little evidence of recall bias impacting data quality. There is some indication that more salient events are less subject to recall decay. Overall, the results allay some concerns about the quality of some types of agricultural data collected through recall over lengthy periods. |
| Keywords: | Crops&Crop Management Systems,Educational Sciences,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Regional Economic Development,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2011–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5671&r=agr |
| By: | Pete Liapis |
| Abstract: | Trade in processed products, such as chocolates, steaks or wines, is dominated by high income OECD countries, although it is slowing down between these countries while growing very fast between emerging economies. Low income countries, however, account for a small share of such trade. Countries with a revealed comparative advantage in the processed agricultural markets are mostly high income countries and capture the majority of the trade, while many low income countries have a comparative advantage for other agricultural products. This study describes the patterns of trade, examines which countries have a comparative advantage and how this may have changed over time, analyses the level of productivity of countries’ export basket and its contribution to income, and determines whether trade has increased at the extensive or intensive margins. This study uses the gravity framework to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors for the international trade of products. |
| Keywords: | tariffs, trade facilitation, agricultural trade, comparative advantage, processed agricultural products, PRODY, EXPY, extensive margin, gravity framework |
| Date: | 2011–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:47-en&r=agr |
| By: | Timilsina , Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon |
| Abstract: | The question of whether biofuels help mitigate climate change has attracted much debate in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model that explicitly represents land-use change impacts due to the expansion of biofuels, this study attempts to shed some light on this question. The study shows that if biofuel mandates and targets currently announced by more than 40 countries around the world are implemented by 2020 using crop feedstocks, and if both forests and pasture lands are used to meet the new land demands for biofuel expansion, this would cause a net increase of greenhouse gas emissions released to the atmosphere until 2043, since the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions released through land-use change would exceed the reduction of emissions due to replacement of gasoline and diesel until then. However, if the use of forest lands is avoided by channeling only pasture lands to meet the demand for new lands, a net increase of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions would occur but would cease by 2021, only a year after the assumed full implementation of the mandates and targets. The study also shows, contrary to common perceptions, that the rate of deforestation does not increase with the rate of biofuel expansion; instead, the marginal rate of deforestation and corresponding land-use emissions decrease even if the production of biofuels increases. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Economics,Energy and Environment,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Climate Change and Environment |
| Date: | 2011–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5672&r=agr |
| By: | Saikia, Dilip |
| Abstract: | Over the years the Indian economy has undergone a structural change in its sectoral composition: from a primary agro-based economy during 1970s, the economy has emerged as predominant in the service sector since the 1990s. This structural change and uneven pattern of growth of agriculture, industry and services sector in the post reforms period is likely to appear substantial changes in the production and demand linkages among various sectors, and in turn, could have significant implication for the growth and development process of the economy. This has triggered a renewed interest in studying the inter-relationship between agriculture and industry. The present paper is intended to examine the trends of interlinkages between the two sectors from a three sectoral perspectives for the pre- and post-reforms periods in India. The study observed that ‘agriculture-industry’ linkage has been deteriorating over the years and there has been directional change in the inter-linkages between the two sectors. Both the production and demand linkages were primarily from the industry to agriculture sector in the pre-reform period, which changed to from agriculture to industry in the post-reform period. Further, while the linkage was primarily through the production channel in the 1960s through 1980s, it translates primarily through the demand channel since 1990s. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture; Industry; Sectoral linkages; Indian economy |
| JEL: | Q1 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:31204&r=agr |
| By: | Cadot, Olivier; Jaud, Mélise |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether the Pesticides Initiative Program has significantly affected the export performance of Senegal's horticulture industry. We apply two main microeconometric techniques, difference-in-difference and matching difference-in-differences to identify the effect of the Pesticides Initiative Program on exports of fresh fruits and vegetables. We use a unique firm-level dataset containing data on sales, employment, and exports by product and destination markets, as well as firm enrolment year, over 2000-2008. The results suggest that while the program had no significant effect on exports pooled over all products and destinations, it had a positive effect when considering fresh fruits and vegetables exports to the European Union. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture; EU; Export Promotion; Impact Evaluation; Senegal; Technical Assistance |
| JEL: | C23 F13 F14 L15 L25 O17 O24 |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8429&r=agr |
| By: | MORITA Tamaki; MANAGI Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | Eco-labeling systems for fish and fishery products provide the fishery industry with incentives to conserve marine resources and protect the environment. Under these systems, unlike command-and-control fishery management mechanisms, the fishery industry voluntarily controls their catch. By choosing products labeled as ecologically friendly, consumers can also help promote sustainable fisheries. <br /><br />Despite Japan being a major fishing and fish-consuming country, the system is still in its infancy. One reason may be that Japanese consumers are not aware of the fisheries' harmful ecological impacts and the relationship of these impacts with their seafood consumption. Would Japanese consumers change their consumption patterns if they knew which of the fish available in the supermarkets, were being overfished?<br /><br />We devised a web survey that included discrete choice conjoint analysis. We investigated what kind of information influences consumers' awareness of overfishing, and also what affects consumers' preferences regarding eco-labeled seafood. Our study revealed that Japanese consumers are willing to choose seafood based on eco-labeling when they: understand the role of eco-labeling, encounter reliable information about the item's relationship with marine resources, and know that a reliable organization is responsible for the labels. This result supports the idea of designing a feasible eco-labeling mechanism in Japan. |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:10037&r=agr |
| By: | Shawkat Hammoudeh; Soodabeh Sarafrazi; Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the short- and long-run daily relationships for a grain-energy nexus that includes the prices of corn, crude oil, ethanol, gasoline, soybeans, and sugar, and their open interest. The empirical results demonstrate the presence of these relationships in this nexus, and underscore the importance of ethanol and soybeans in all these relationships. In particular, ethanol and be considered as a catalyst in this nexus because of its significance as a loading factor, a long-run error corrector and a short-run adjuster. Ethanol leads all commodities in the price discovery process in the long run. The negative cross-price open interest effects suggest that there is a money outflow from all commodities in response to increases in open interest positions in the corn futures markets, indicating that active arbitrage activity takes place in those markets. On the other hand, an increase in the soybean open interest contributes to fund inflows in the corn futures market and the other futures markets, leading to more speculative activities in these markets. In connection with open interest, the ethanol market fails because of its thin market. Finally, it is interesting to note that the long-run equilibrium (cointegrating relationship), speeds of adjustment and open interest across markets have strengthened significantly during the 2009-2011 economic recovery period, compared with the full and 2007-2009 Great Recession periods. |
| Keywords: | Energy-grain price nexus; open interest; futures prices; ethanol; crude oil; gasoline; corn; soybean; sugar; arbitrage; speculation |
| JEL: | E43 Q11 Q13 |
| Date: | 2011–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:11/24&r=agr |
| By: | James Roumasset (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa and University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization); Christopher Wada (University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization) |
| Abstract: | Optimal recycling of minerals can be thought of as an integral part of the theory of the mine. In this paper, we consider the role that wastewater recycling plays in the optimal extraction of groundwater, a renewable resource. We develop a two-sector dynamic optimization model to solve for the optimal trajectories of groundwater extraction and water recycling. For the case of spatially increasing recycling costs, recycled water serves as a supplemental resource in transition to the steady state. For constant unit recycling cost, recycled wastewater is eventually used as a sector-specific backstop for agricultural users, while desalination supplements household groundwater in the steady state. In both cases, recycling water increases welfare by shifting demand away from the aquifer, thus delaying implementation of costly desalination. The model provides guidance on when and how much to develop resource alternatives. |
| Keywords: | Renewable resources, dynamic optimization, groundwater allocation, wastewater reuse, recycling, reclamation, water quality |
| JEL: | Q25 Q28 C6 |
| Date: | 2011–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:201106&r=agr |
| By: | Mussa, Richard |
| Abstract: | The paper looks at how inequality in household expenditure components affects total inequality and poverty in Malawi. Total household expenditure is disaggregated into four mutually exclusive and exhaustive expenditure items namely; expenditure on food, expenditure on health, expenditure on education, and expenditure on non food and non human capital items. Using data from the second integrated household survey (IHS2), we find that the elasticities of poverty with respect to within-component and between-component inequality are positive, suggesting that an increase within-component and between-component inequality increases overall poverty in Malawi. The results also show that the elasticities of poverty, as measured by the poverty gap and poverty indices, with respect to inequalities in expenditure on food and health are positive and are about the same in magnitude. The results vindicate the exemptions and zero rating of some food, health, and education related goods and services under the Value Added Tax (VAT) system. More importantly, they also suggest that expanding the coverage of zero rating and exemption would have a poverty reducing effect. These findings hold at the national level, as well as when rural and urban areas are treated separately. Additionally, the results are insensitive to choice of poverty line. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; poverty; Malawi |
| JEL: | D30 |
| Date: | 2011–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:31225&r=agr |
| By: | Dennis Wesselbaum |
| Abstract: | Recent research has shown that economic conditions have an important effect on real commodity prices. We quantify the contribution of fluctuations in inflation to this particular link. In the data, a temporary rise in inflation causes real commodity prices to rise, as does a rise in trend inflation. We find that a simple dynamic equilibrium model of commodity supply and demand gives a realistic response of real commodity prices to inflation. Based on historical simulations, shocks to inflation played an important role in commodity price dynamics during the 1970s, but they have contributed negligibly to commodity price movements since then |
| Keywords: | Commodity prices, monetary policy, inflation, the 1970s |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E65 Q00 |
| Date: | 2011–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1704&r=agr |
| By: | Akpan, Usenobong F.; Chuku, Agbai |
| Abstract: | The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is a presumption that environmental degradation follows an inverted U-shaped trajectory in relation to economic growth. The thorny question of whether economic growth could provide a cure to environmental degradation has sparked off a large body of empirical studies in the last decade. The conclusions have been mixed. This study contributes to the debate on the existence and policy relevance of the EKC for Nigeria by applying autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework to annual time series data from 1960 to 2008. The traditional EKC model is extended by including (in addition to the level, square and cubed values of the income variable), trade openness as well as the shares of manufacturing, agriculture and service sectors in Nigeria’s GDP. Using Co2 emissions per capita to proxy environmental degradation, our findings do not support the existence of the EKC hypothesis. Rather our results show that Nigeria’s situation when confronted with data is exemplified by an N-shaped relationship with a turning point at $77.27 that lies below the data set used for the study. Based on these findings, the paper posit that the hypothesized EKC serves as a dangerous policy guide to solving environmental problems in Nigeria. The conclusion is that to ensure sustainability, there exist an urgent need to look beyond the EKC by adopting courageous policy measures of environmental preservation in Nigeria irrespective of the country’s level of income. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Degradation; ARDL; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Nigeria |
| JEL: | C32 O43 Q24 |
| Date: | 2011–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:31241&r=agr |
| By: | Strand, Jon |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a first analysis of optimal offset policies by a"policy bloc"of fossil fuel importers implementing a climate policy, facing a (non-policy) fringe of other importers, and a bloc of fuel exporters. The policy bloc uses either a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade scheme, jointly with a fully efficient offset mechanism for reducing emissions in the fringe. The policy bloc is then shown to prefer a tax over a cap-and-trade scheme, since 1) a tax extracts more rent as fuel exporters reduce the export price, and more so when the policy bloc is larger relative to the fringe; and 2) offsets are more favorable to the policy bloc under a tax than under a cap-and-trade scheme. The optimal offset price under a carbon tax is half the tax rate; under a cap-and-trade scheme the quota and offset price are equal. The domestic carbon and offset price are both higher under a tax than under a cap-and-trade scheme when the policy bloc is small; when it is larger the offset price can be higher under a cap-and-trade scheme. Fringe countries gain by mitigation in the policy bloc, and more under a carbon tax since the fuel import price is lower, and since the price obtained when selling offsets is often higher (always so for a large fringe). |
| Keywords: | Climate Change Economics,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Energy Production and Transportation,Markets and Market Access,Environment and Energy Efficiency |
| Date: | 2011–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5675&r=agr |
| By: | Antoine BOUET; Guillaume GRUERE; Laetitia LEROY |
| Abstract: | The Price and Trade Effects of strict Information Requirements for Genetically Modified Commodities under the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tac:wpaper:2010-2011_11&r=agr |
| By: | Stefano Castriota; Marco Delmastro |
| Abstract: | The literature on collective reputation is still in its infancy. Despite the existence of a (limited) number of valuable theoretical works studying the process of collective reputation building, there is still no comprehensive analysis of this concept. In addition, due to data limitation, there are no empirical studies testing the determinants of group reputation. This work intends to provide a comprehensive analysis of reputational equilibria within coalitions of agents. In order to do so, we design a static and dynamic (over 30 years) study on the universe of coalitions of companies, within the wine market, looking at the role exerted by the characteristics of the coalition itself (its age and size), the rules set and the actions put forward by the group of agents in order to reach and maintain a certain level of collective reputation, and the context in which they operate. Results shed new lights into this ubiquitous phenomenon. |
| Keywords: | reputation, collective reputation, asymmetric information, quality standards, wine. |
| JEL: | L14 L15 |
| Date: | 2011–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pia:wpaper:89/2011&r=agr |
| By: | Sayeeda Bano (University of Waikato); Frank Scrimgeour (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the spectacular and successful growth of New Zealand kiwifruit production and exports between 1984 and 2009. It explores the evolution, current status, future prospects and challenges facing the industry where more than 90 percent of the output is exported. The study includes a statistical analysis of the production and consumption of kiwifruit in New Zealand and other countries, with a particular focus on Asia. The product life-cycle model is used to examine the pattern of evolution of New Zealand’s kiwifruit industry while revealed comparative advantage methodology is used to determine whether New Zealand has a comparative advantage in kiwifruit. Finally, econometric analysis is employed to identify and test the strength of key determinants of kiwifruit exports. Empirical analysis suggests that domestic and trading partner incomes, market size and distance are key determinants of kiwifruit export performance. |
| Keywords: | kiwifruit; Zespri; exports; green kiwifruit; gold kiwifruit; product life cycle; horticulture; agriculture |
| JEL: | D91 Q13 Q18 |
| Date: | 2011–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:11/08&r=agr |