New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2010‒09‒25
39 papers chosen by

  1. Ethanol Production, Food and Forests By Andrade de Sa, Saraly; Palmer, Charles; Engel, Stefanie
  2. Do Current U.S. Ethanol Policies Make Sense? By Yano, Yuki; Blandford, David; Surry, Yves R.
  3. Adoption of certified organic technologies: the case of coffee farming in Colombia By Ibanez, Marcela
  4. Modeling the global trade and environmental impacts of biofuel policies By Bouët, Antoine; Dimaranan, Betina V.; Valin, Hugo
  5. Food Safety Standards for the U. S. Fresh Produce Industry By Palma, Marco A.; Ribera, Luis A.; Paggi, Mechel; Knutson, Ronald
  6. Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation By Yu, Bingxin; Zhu, Tingju; Breisinger, Clemens; Hai, Nguyen Manh
  7. Optimal rainfall insurance contracts for maize producers in Ghana’s Northern Region By Muamba, Francis M.; Ulimwengu, John M.
  8. Crop price indemnified loans for farmers By Karlan, Dean; Kutsoati, Ed; McMillan, Margaret; Udry, Chris
  9. The Determinants of Technology Adoption by UK Farmers using Bayesian Model Averaging. The Cases of Organic Production and Computer Usage. By Balcombe, Kelvin; Tiffin, R
  10. Analyzing nutritional impacts of policies By Ecker, Olivier; Qaim, Matin
  11. Do differences in the scale of irrigation projects generate different impacts on poverty and production? By Dillon, Andrew
  12. Investigating the role of poultry in livelihoods and the impact of avian flu on livelihoods outcomes in Africa By Birol, Ekin; Asare-Marfo, Dorene; Ayele, Gezahegn; Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi; Ndirangu, Lydia; Okpukpara, Benjamin; Roy, Devesh; Yakhshilikov, Yorbol
  13. Constraints to fertilizer use in Nigeria By Banful, Afua B.; Nkonya, Ephraim; Oboh, Victor
  14. Do health investments improve agricultural productivity? By McNamara, Paul E.; Ulimwengu, John M.; Leonard, Kenneth L.
  15. Institutional and public expenditure review of Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture By Kolavalli, Shashidhara; Birner, Regina; Benin, Samuel; Horowitz, Leah; Babu, Suresh; Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo; Thompson, Nii Moi; Poku, John
  16. Net Farm Income and Land Use under a U.S. Greenhouse Gas Cap and Trade By Baker, Justin S.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Murray, Brian C.; Rose, Steven K.; Alig, Ralph J.; Adams, Darius; Latta, Greg; Beach, Robert; Daigneault, Adam
  17. Strategies for adapting to climate change in rural Sub-Saharan Africa By Nzuma, Jonathan Makau; Waithaka, Michael; Mulwa, Richard Mbithi; Kyotalimye, Miriam; Nelson, Gerald
  18. To what extent would the poorest consumers nutritionally and socially benefit from a global food tax and subsidy reform ? A framed field experiment based on daily food intake By Lacroix, A.; Muller, L.; Ruffieux, B.
  19. The Relative Efficiency of Water Use in Bangladesh Agriculture By Naseema Tanveer Chowdhury
  20. Poverty Impact of Rising Maize Prices in Kenya By Levin, Jörgen
  21. Building capacities for evidence and outcome-based food policy planning and implementation By Badiane, Ousmane; Odjo, Sunday P.; Ulimwengu, John M.
  22. Spatial price transmission and market integration in Senegal’s groundnut market By Badiane, Ousmane; Ulimwengu, John M.; Wouterse, Fleur
  23. Producer Willingness and Ability to Supply Biomass By Altman, Ira; Sanders, Dwight; Moon, Wanki; Coulibaly, Ibrahima
  24. Agricultural Trade, Liberalization, Productivity Gain, and Poverty Alleviation: a General Equilibrium Analysis By Nadia Belhaj Hassine; Véronique Robichaud; Bernard Decaluwe
  25. Efficacy and adoption of strategies for avian flu control in developing countries By Birol, Ekin; Asare-Marfo, Dorene; Yakhshilikov, Yorbol
  26. The Effects of the Coffee Trademarking Initiative and Starbucks Publicity on Export Prices of Ethiopian Coffee By Arslan, Aslihan; Reicher, Christopher
  27. Private Financial Sector Investment in Farmland and Agricultural Infrastructure By HighQuest Partners, United States
  28. Determinants Influencing Adoption of Geographical Indications Certification: A Case Study from Northeastern Thailand By Ngokkuen, Chuthaporn; Grote, Ulrike
  29. Sustainable Economic, Marketing, Environmental and Financial Opportunities for Biogas Recovery Systems By Steglin, Forrest
  30. Welfare Implications of Washington Wheat Breeding Programs By Nogueira, Lia; Marsh, Thomas L.
  31. Performance payments: A new strategy to conserve large carnivores in the tropics? By Zabel, Astrid; Engel, Stefanie
  32. Provision of an environmental output within a multi-output distance function approach By Areal, Francisco J; Tiffin, Richard; Balcombe, Kelvin
  33. Why Trade Negotiations Still Matter to U.S. Agriculture By Josling, Tim
  34. Rural biomass energy 2020: People's Republic of China By Zhang, Qingfeng; Watanabe, Makiko; Lin, Tun
  35. Spatial price dynamics in the EU F&V sector: the cases of tomato and cauliflower By Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Cioffi, Antonio
  36. What Causes Obesity? And Why Has it Grown So Much? An Alternative View By John F. Tomer
  37. The impact of environmental performance rating and disclosure: an empirical analysis of perceptions by polluting firms'managers in China By Jin, Yanhong; Wang, Hua; Wheeler, David
  38. How Do Rural Households Cope With Shocks? Evidence from Northeast Thailand By Tongruksawattana, Songporne; Waibel, Hermann; Schmidt, Erich
  39. The Canola Oil Industry and EU Trade Integration: A Gravity Model Approach By Röttgers, Dirk; Faße, Anja; Grote, Ulrike

  1. By: Andrade de Sa, Saraly; Palmer, Charles; Engel, Stefanie
    Abstract: This paper investigates the direct and indirect impacts of ethanol production on land use, deforestation and food production. A partial equilibrium model of a national economy with two sectors and two regions, one of which includes a residual forest, is developed. It analyses how an exogenous increase in the ethanol price affects input allocation (land and labor) between sectors (energy crop and food). Three potential effects are identified. First, the standard and well-documented effect of direct land competition between rival uses increases deforestation and decreases food production. Second, an indirect displacement of food production across regions, provoked by a shift in the price of food, increases deforestation and reduces the total output of the food sector. Finally, labor mobility between sectors and regions tends to decrease food production but also deforestation. The overall impact of ethanol production on forest conversion is ambiguous, providing a number of interesting pointers to further, empirical research. --
    Keywords: Ethanol,Deforestation,Indirect impacts,Land use,Migration
    JEL: Q11 Q24 Q42
    Date: 2010
  2. By: Yano, Yuki; Blandford, David; Surry, Yves R.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Q48, Q42, Q27, Q28,
    Date: 2010–08
  3. By: Ibanez, Marcela
    Abstract: Agricultural production is an important source of income and employment for developing countries, yet it is the cause of serious environmental problems. Though ECO-labels appear as a promising alternative to control the negative effects of agriculture on the environment and to increase the income of rural poor, the proportion of agricultural land and exports certified as is quite small. We investigate the factors that affect the adoption of certified organic coffee in Colombia and in particular study the effect of economic incentives on adoption. We find that those who have lower cost of adoption are more likely to be certified as organic. Correcting for sample selection, we find that certified organic production is 40% less productive and 31% less costly than non-certified production. Given the price premium in 2007, certified organic production is 15% less profitable than non-organic production. We find that in order to make organic production attractive, the price premium of certified organic coffee should be about 5 times higher than in 2007. --
    Keywords: Technology adoption,Switching regression models,Organic Coffee,Colombia
    Date: 2010
  4. By: Bouët, Antoine; Dimaranan, Betina V.; Valin, Hugo
    Abstract: There is rising skepticism about the potential positive environmental impacts of first generation biofuels. Growing biofuel crops could induce diversion of other crops dedicated to food and feed needs. The relocation of production could increase deforestation and bring significant new volumes of carbon into the atmosphere. In this paper, we develop a methodology for assessing the indirect land use change effects related to biofuel policies in a computable general equilibrium framework. We rely on the trade policy model MIRAGE and on the GTAP 7 database, both of which have been modified and improved to explicitly capture the role of different types of biofuel feedstock crops, energy demand and substitution, and carbon emissions. Land use changes are represented at the level of agroecological zones in a dynamic framework using land substitution with nesting of constant elasticity of transformation functions and a land supply module that takes into account the effects of economic land expansion. In this integrated global approach, we capture the environmental cost of different land conversions due to biofuels in the carbon budget, taking into account both direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions related to land use change. We apply this methodology to look at the impacts of biofuel (ethanol) policies for transportation in the United States and in the European Union with and without ethanol trade liberalization. We find that emissions released because of ethanol programs significantly worsen the total carbon balance of biofuel policies. Ethanol trade liberalization benefits are ambiguous and depend highly on the parameters governing land use change, particularly in Brazil. We conclude by pointing out the critical aspects that have to be refined in order to improve our understanding of the environmental implications of biofuel development.
    Keywords: Biofuels, indirect land use change, trade liberalization,
    Date: 2010
  5. By: Palma, Marco A.; Ribera, Luis A.; Paggi, Mechel; Knutson, Ronald
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Q18,
    Date: 2010–05
  6. By: Yu, Bingxin; Zhu, Tingju; Breisinger, Clemens; Hai, Nguyen Manh
    Abstract: Vietnam is likely to be among the countries hardest hit by climate change, mainly through rising sea levels and changes in rainfall and temperatures. Agriculture can be extensively affected by climate change, and designing effective adaptation strategies will be critical for maintaining food security, rural employment, and foreign exchange earnings. This paper examines these critical issues and thereby makes two contributions to the literature. First, we estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural and water systems in Vietnam based on crop simulation, hydrological simulation, and river basin models. We then present a yield function approach that models technology advances and policy interventions to improve rice productivity and mitigate the impact of climate change, using a multilevel mixed effects model. This two-pronged approach allows rice yield changes to be linked with both biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. The results indicate that rice production is likely to be severely compromised by climate change. However, investment in rural infrastructure, such as irrigation and road, and human capital can mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. Due to substantial regional variations in impacts and responses, localized policy packages will be key for effective mitigation. Government policies targeting ethnic-minority and poor communities will be especially important components of climate change adaptation strategies.
    Keywords: Climate change, productivity, rice,
    Date: 2010
  7. By: Muamba, Francis M.; Ulimwengu, John M.
    Abstract: The risk of food insecurity due to climate change in developing countries has encouraged development partners to seek new approaches to improve the resilience of subsistence agriculture to covariate shocks. Such innovative approaches include investment in safety nets such as rainfall insurance. However, a policy question remains: How does one determine the practicality of rainfall insurance for a particular district? This paper attempts to fill this gap by assessing the viability of rainfall insurance contracts for agricultural production in Ghana’s Northern Region. Using a stop-loss framework, an optimal contract is determined by choosing its parameters by maximizing the objective function in the form of covariance between crop loss and indemnity payment, the objective function given a predetermined fair premium rate. The theoretical contract is implemented using monthly rainfall and annual maize crop yield data from 1998 to 2004 from 12 districts in the Northern Region under varying premium rates. We conclude that rainfall insurance may not be viable for all districts in the Northern Region; however, the contracts are likely to be viable in districts that exhibit a positive Pearson correlation coefficient between maize yield loss and indemnity payments.
    Keywords: Climate change, maize yield, rainfall insurance,
    Date: 2010
  8. By: Karlan, Dean; Kutsoati, Ed; McMillan, Margaret; Udry, Chris
    Abstract: Farmers face a particular set of risks that complicate the decision to borrow. We use a randomized experiment to investigate (1) the role of crop-price risk in reducing demand for credit among famers and (2) how risk mitigation changes farmers’ investment decisions. In rural Ghana, we offer farmers loans with an indemnity component that forgives 50 percent of the loan if crop prices drop below a threshold price. A control group is offered a standard loan product at the same interest rate. We find similar rates of loan uptake among all farmers and little significant impact of the indemnity component on uptake or other outcomes of interest, with the exception of higher likelihoods of garden egg cultivation and sales to market traders rather than at farmgate among recipients of indemnified loans.
    Keywords: agricultural credit, clustered randomized control trial, crop price insurance, crop prices, Impact evaluation, underinvestment,
    Date: 2010
  9. By: Balcombe, Kelvin; Tiffin, R
    Abstract: We introduce and implement a reversible jump approach to Bayesian Model Averaging for the Probit model with uncertain regressors. This approach provides a direct estimate of the probability that a variable should be included in the model. Two applications are investigated. The …rst is the adoption of organic systems in UK farming, and the second is the inuence of farm and farmer characteristics on the use of a computer on the farm. While there is a correspondence between the conclusions we would obtain with and without model averaging results, we …find important di¤erences, particularly in smaller samples.
    Keywords: Agriculture; Adoption; Model Averaging; Organic; Computer
    JEL: Q16 C11
    Date: 2010
  10. By: Ecker, Olivier; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: Widespread malnutrition in developing countries calls for appropriate strategies, presupposing good knowledge about nutritional impacts of policies. Little previous work has been carried out in this direction, especially with respect to micronutrients. We use representative household data from Malawi and develop a demand systems approach to estimate income and price elasticities of food demand and nutrient consumption. These estimates are applied for policy simulations. Given multiple nutritional deficiencies, income-related policies are better suited than price policies to improve nutrition. Although consumer price subsidies for maize improve calorie and mineral consumption, they can worsen vitamin consumption in urban areas.
    Keywords: income and price elasticities, micronutrient deficiency, nutrient consumption, quadratic almost ideal demand system,
    Date: 2010
  11. By: Dillon, Andrew
    Abstract: This paper investigates differences in household production and consumption among small- and large-scale irrigators to assess whether the scale of an irrigation project increases household welfare in Mali. Much of the evidence of the impact of irrigation does not use counterfactual analysis to estimate such impact or distinguish between the scale of the irrigation projects to be evaluated. In the dataset collected by the author, both a large-scale irrigation project and small-scale projects are used to construct counterfactual groups. Propensity score matching is used to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated for small and large irrigators relative to nonirrigators on agricultural production, agricultural income, and consumption per capita. Small-scale irrigation has a larger effect on agricultural production and agricultural income than large-scale irrigation, but large-scale irrigation has a larger effect on consumption per capita. This suggests that market integration and nonfarm externalities are important in realizing gains in agricultural surplus from irrigation.
    Keywords: Irrigation, program evaluation,
    Date: 2010
  12. By: Birol, Ekin; Asare-Marfo, Dorene; Ayele, Gezahegn; Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi; Ndirangu, Lydia; Okpukpara, Benjamin; Roy, Devesh; Yakhshilikov, Yorbol
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the role of poultry in households’ livelihoods portfolios and the impact of supply-and-demand shocks that may be caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on households’ various livelihoods outcomes in four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The study countries include Ethiopia and Kenya in East Africa and Ghana and Nigeria in West Africa. These countries represent a spectrum of SSA countries regarding disease status, means of disease spread, and the role of the poultry sector in the economy. By using nationally representative household-level secondary data and discrete choice methods (probit and zero-inflated negative binomial models), we profile the household, farm, and regional characteristics of those households that are most likely to keep poultry and those households that are most likely to be engaged in intensive poultry production (that is, to keep larger household flocks). We estimate the ex ante impact of HPAI outbreaks and scares/threats on livelihoods outcomes by using the propensity score matching approach. The results of this study generate valuable information regarding the role of poultry in the livelihoods of small-scale poultry-producing households and the livelihoods impacts of HPAI-induced supply-and-demand shocks. Such information is critical for the design of targeted, and hence effective, HPAI control and mitigation policies.
    Keywords: Agricultural growth and technologies, demand shock, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), Livelihoods, probit model, Propensity score matching, supply shock, zero-inflated negative binomial model,
    Date: 2010
  13. By: Banful, Afua B.; Nkonya, Ephraim; Oboh, Victor
    Abstract: Fertilizer consumption rates in Nigeria remains among the lowest in the world despite decades of aggressive subsidization. The extension service in Nigeria has a double-edged impact on fertilizer use in the country; not only can their activities increase farmers’ demand for fertilizer, but also the organizational framework of the service, Agricultural Development Programs, is the major source of fertilizer for farmers. To provide insights on the reasons for the low fertilizer use in Nigeria, this paper presents an analysis of the extension service as well as some perspectives of village extension agents. We find that the reach of the extension service is severely limited by low staff. The main technology transmitted is the use of improved seeds. Fertilizer technology is seldom transmitted and very rarely is irrigation taught. Furthermore, extension agents are found to have gaps in their knowledge of fertilizer technology. Extension agents routinely distribute agricultural inputs and many see their advisory role as secondary to this function. Extension agents identified the primary constraint to fertilizer use in Nigeria as the physical absence of the product at the time that it is needed, rather than lack of affordability or farmers’ lack of knowledge about the benefits or the use of fertilizer.
    Keywords: Agricultural growth and technologies, Extension, Fertilizer, Subsidies,
    Date: 2010
  14. By: McNamara, Paul E.; Ulimwengu, John M.; Leonard, Kenneth L.
    Abstract: Determining the causality between health measures and both income and labor productivity remains an ongoing challenge for economists. This review paper aims to answer the question: Does improved population health lead to higher rates of agricultural growth? In attempting to answer this question, we survey the empirical literature at micro and macro levels concerning the link between health investments and agricultural productivity. The evidence from some micro-level studies suggests that inexpensive health interventions can have a very large impact on labor productivity. The macro-level evidence at the country and global level, however, is mixed at best and in some cases suggests that health care interventions have no impact on income, much less on agricultural productivity. At both micro and macro levels, the literature does not provide a clear-cut answer to the question under investigation. Overall, the review reveals a great deal of heterogeneity in terms of estimation methods, definition and measurement of health variables, choice of economic outcomes, single-equation versus multiple-equation approach, and static versus dynamic approach. The actual magnitude of estimated elasticities is difficult to assess in part due to estimation bias caused by the endogeneity of health outcomes. We also found significant gaps in the literature; for example, very little attention is given to demand for health inputs by rural populations and farmers.
    Keywords: Agriculture, Growth, health, Investment, Nutrition, productivity,
    Date: 2010
  15. By: Kolavalli, Shashidhara; Birner, Regina; Benin, Samuel; Horowitz, Leah; Babu, Suresh; Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo; Thompson, Nii Moi; Poku, John
    Abstract: The need for agricultural ministries to have the capacity to develop appropriate policies and effectively implement them is becoming increasingly important as African countries, following on their commitment to Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP), pursue economic growth through agriculture-led development. The ministries need to take the lead in pulling together evidence based strategies and building partnerships that ensures their ownership. As donors begin to align their policies with those of governments, an increasingly large share of external support to agriculture is likely to be delivered in the form of support to budgets rather than specially implemented projects. Capacities of ministries and effectiveness public systems will have significant bearing on effectiveness and impact of investments in agriculture. This public expenditure and institutional review of Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture offers insights on diagnosing limitations to and identifying strategies for improving the capacity of ministries to make effective use of human and financial resources. The review makes use a conceptual framework in which mission and functions, organizational capacity – a combination of structures, processes and resources –and organizational incentives interact to produce organizational performance. Indicative strategies are recommended that the ministry can use to generate discussions internally and developed a set a reforms that are owned. They key message is that to improve performance both capacity and incentives faced by organizations need to be addressed.
    Keywords: agriculture, ministry, capacity, expenditure review, institutions,
    Date: 2010
  16. By: Baker, Justin S.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Murray, Brian C.; Rose, Steven K.; Alig, Ralph J.; Adams, Darius; Latta, Greg; Beach, Robert; Daigneault, Adam
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Q15, Q18, Q54,
    Date: 2010–04
  17. By: Nzuma, Jonathan Makau; Waithaka, Michael; Mulwa, Richard Mbithi; Kyotalimye, Miriam; Nelson, Gerald
    Abstract: The ten ASARECA member countries (Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) have adopted, or are planning to adopt, a range of climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture (see Table 1 for a summary). Of the 26 strategies mentioned, only two are common to all 10 countries, while five more are common to five or more. The strategies common to all member countries include the development and promotion of drought-tolerant and early-maturing crop species and exploitation of new and renewable energy sources. Most countries have areas that are classifiable as arid or semiarid, hence the need to develop drought-tolerant and early-maturing crops. Strangely, only one country recognizes the conservation of genetic resources as an important strategy although this is also potentially important for dealing with drought. Biomass energy resources account for more than 70 percent of total energy consumption in ASARECA member countries. To mitigate the potential adverse effects of biomass energy depletion, ASARECA countries plan to harness new and renewable energy sources, including solar power, wind power, hydro and geothermal sources, and biofuels. Eight of the 10 countries cite the promotion of rainwater harvesting as an important adaptation strategy, either small scale with small check dams or large scale with large dam projects. The five measures that are common to more than five countries are (a) the conservation and restoration of vegetative cover in degraded and mountain areas; (b) reduction of overall livestock numbers through sale or slaughter; (c) cross-breeding, zero-grazing, and acquisition of smaller livestock (for example, sheep or goats); (d) adoption of traditional methods of natural forest conservation and food use; and (e) community-based management programs for forests, rangelands, and national parks. The promotion of environmentally friendly investments and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects that can be funded through carbon trading is a feature of only one country. Three examples of strategies that warrant greater region wide collaboration are the conservation of genetic materials, development and promotion of drought-tolerant species, and soil conservation. To date, the national adaptation policies of only three countries have indicated that they carry out these strategies.
    Keywords: Adaptation, ASARECA, Climate change, NAPA, Natural resource management, PRSP,
    Date: 2010
  18. By: Lacroix, A.; Muller, L.; Ruffieux, B.
    Abstract: In this paper we propose a new method in experimental economics, designed to evaluate the effectiveness of public policy incentives aimed at altering consumer behaviors. We apply this method to wide-ranging policies on food prices, which use subsidies to increase the consumption of healthy products and taxes to reduce that of unhealthy ones. Our protocol allows for observation of an individual’s daily food consumption before and after the policy. We examine two separate policies: the one subsidizes fruit and vegetables, while the other one combines taxes and subsidies. We measure their nutritional and economic impacts on the choices of low-income French consumers, compared to a reference group. Both policies have a positive effect on the nutritional quality of food choices of the two groups but initial gaps widen, especially with the subsidies. In the low-income group this can be explained by an initially unfavorable pattern and by weaker price elasticities. The redistributive effects are therefore doubly regressive. Moreover, the individual price elasticities, that the experimental approach enables us to measure, show widely diverse behaviors. They are counter-effective for close to 40% of our sample of poor women.
    JEL: C93 I18
    Date: 2010
  19. By: Naseema Tanveer Chowdhury
    Abstract: This study examines the marginal productivity of water and other inputs in dry season rice production in Bangladesh. Agriculture is the major water using sector in Bangladesh, but water is in short supply during the dry winter months. The study aims to understand how efficiently irrigated water is used in dry rice production. It estimates a translog production function for boro rice in seven hydrological regions and derives the marginal products of various inputs. These estimates are based on data collected by the International Rice Research Institute from a nationally representative sample of farm households in Bangladesh. [SANDEE WOrking Paper No. 49-10].
    Keywords: water, bangladesh, agriculture, rice, production, hydrological, winter, reserch, institute, data, Cobb-Douglas Production Function, elasticity, marginal returns, irrigation , boro rice,
    Date: 2010
  20. By: Levin, Jörgen (Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics)
    Abstract: The recent hike in food prices has been of great concern to policymakers, international organisations and donor agencies. In this paper we discuss, both from a partial and general equilibrium perspective, the impact of the recent price increase on maize on Kenyan households. Simulating a 100% increase in maize prices, we find that the headcount ratio in urban areas increased by 3-4 percentage unit points, depending on the size of windfall gain to producers. Based on the assumption that the price shock is passed through in total to the farmers, food poverty in the rural areas could be reduced by almost 14%. If incomes are not passed through, rural food poverty would increase quite significantly in some provinces. It is the poorest of the poor in both urban and rural areas who are most adversely affected. Policy reforms, which would reduce marketing margins and fertiliser prices, would be important factors in promoting a positive impact on performance in the maize sector. The regional maize trade within East Africa seems to have a role to play, and exploring the impact of total integration of the maize markets could be a topic of further research.
    Keywords: Food crisis; maize; Kenya; poverty; distribution; net benefit ratio; CGE
    JEL: O12 O18 Q11 Q18
    Date: 2010–09–10
  21. By: Badiane, Ousmane; Odjo, Sunday P.; Ulimwengu, John M.
    Abstract: The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) is an Africawide framework for revitalizing agriculture and rural development in order to accelerate economic growth and progress toward poverty reduction and food and nutrition security. This study reviews CAADP and its strategic objectives, key players, implementation modalities, and approach to ensuring evidence and outcome-based policy planning and implementation. The study also lays out CAADP’s common analytical framework at the country level and shares economic modeling results from member countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in which analysis was conducted to examine agricultural growth and investment options for meeting CAADP growth and expenditure targets and the Millennium Development Goal target of halving poverty. Finally, the paper discusses CAADP’s review and dialogue mechanisms and knowledge support systems that have been put in place to facilitate benchmarking, mutual learning, and capacity strengthening that will improve agricultural policy, program design, and implementation.
    Keywords: CAADP, ECOWAS, growth options, MDG 1, Poverty reduction, public expenditure,
    Date: 2010
  22. By: Badiane, Ousmane; Ulimwengu, John M.; Wouterse, Fleur
    Abstract: The groundnut sector is the largest of Senegal’s agricultural sectors. It has been subject to various degrees of intervention since the country’s independence. Some, including the determination of farm prices by the government have survived the wave of reforms of the 1980s. Groundnut pricing policies have been the source of major transfers from farmers to the groundnut milling industry, which until 2007, was dominated by SONACOS, a publicly owned parastatal. The state was thus a major beneficiary of the transfers. In 2007, the company was privatized and is now privately owned, raising even greater concerns about the distribution of implications of pricing policies for groundnuts. The paper examines the potential ramifications of liberalizing groundnut prices in terms of its impact on prices received by producers and paid by the milling industry. One fundamental question in the analysis is the extent to which local markets would respond to such a move. To answer this question, the paper presents a dynamic model of price formation that uses estimates of spatial integration across local markets to measure the response of local agricultural prices to policy changes. We then apply this model to simulate the impact of liberalizing groundnut prices to allow domestic prices to reflect their international levels. We find that doing so would change prices in the border city of Dakar, which happens to be the central market that determines prices in the local markets of the producing regions of Kaolack and Fatick. We also find that if markets had been fully liberalized when SONACOS was privatized in January 2007, then groundnut prices would have been higher and that the increase in prices would have been passed on almost entirely to producers in Kaolack and, to a lesser extent, to producers in Fatick. Such reforms would have reversed the longstanding discrimination of groundnut farmers. Prices received by farmers in Kaolack over a period of one year would have increased from 352 FCFA/kg to 494 FCFA/kg of shelled groundnuts. For farmers in the Fatick region, prices would increase from 389 FCFA/kg to 474 FCFA/kg.
    Keywords: groundnuts, Liberalization, marketing integration, pricing policies, Privatization,
    Date: 2010
  23. By: Altman, Ira; Sanders, Dwight; Moon, Wanki; Coulibaly, Ibrahima
    Abstract: Given the recent interest in renewable energy from agriculture based on row crop waste and energy crops, this paper takes a transaction cost view of biomass supply chain strategies. First an investigation of the biomass and bioenergy literature reveals a need for an organizational perspective on emerging bioenergy industries. Second, transaction cost economic theory is applied to the general relationship between biomass producer and processor. Finally the case of the Iogen Corporation is examined to identify their planned biomass supply chain strategy as they attempt to commercialize their cellulose ethanol technology. Two general options emerge: one where processors can choose to enter developed biomass areas and expect to use spot markets with low transaction costs but experience intense competition for biomass and another where the processor enters an undeveloped biomass area, expects the use of long term contracts with higher transaction costs but can expect less intense competition.
    Keywords: Agribusiness,
    Date: 2010–06
  24. By: Nadia Belhaj Hassine; Véronique Robichaud; Bernard Decaluwe
    Abstract: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have gained continuously in popularity as an empirical tool for assessing the impact of trade liberalization on agricultural growth, poverty, and income distribution. However, conventional models ignore the channels linking technical change in agriculture, trade openness, and poverty. This study seeks to incorporate econometric evidence of these linkages into a CGE model to estimate the impact of alternative trade liberalization scenarios on poverty and equity. The analysis uses the Latent Class Stochastic Frontier Model (LCSFM) and the metafrontier function to investigate the influence of trade openness on agricultural technological change. The estimated productivity effects induced from higher levels of trade are combined with a general equilibrium analysis of trade liberalization to evaluate the income and price changes. These effects are then used to infer the impact on poverty and inequality following the top-down approach. The model is applied to Tunisian data using the social accounting matrix of 2001 and the 2000 household expenditures surveys. Poverty is found to decline under agricultural and full trade liberalization and this decline is much more pronounced when the productivity effects are included.
    Keywords: Openness, Agriculture, Productivity, Poverty, CGE modeling
    JEL: C24 C33 D24 F43 I32 Q17
    Date: 2010
  25. By: Birol, Ekin; Asare-Marfo, Dorene; Yakhshilikov, Yorbol
    Abstract: In this paper, we present the results of a two-stage expert elicitation (Delphi) study conducted to provide input to contingent valuation (CV) studies. These CV studies are designed to estimate the benefits of various public and private strategies for the control of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) across the study countries of Ethiopia, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, and Nigeria. The results of these CV studies are expected to feed into the cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyzes, which will be conducted to identify the effective HPAI control strategies in each study country. The information gathered through the Delphi study included (1) definitions of the small-scale producers (noncommercial/semicommercial and commercial) across the study countries, (2) estimations of the efficacy of various private and public control strategies in HPAI control, and (3) estimates of the proportion of poultry producers who are expected to adopt these control strategies under different scenarios. In this Delphi study, we collected data from 23 experts and analyzed the data by using statistical analysis methods. The results reveal that small-scale flocks are significantly larger in Indonesia, compared to the four African countries. The efficacy levels of both private and public HPAI control strategies investigated are significantly higher for commercial producers than for their noncommercial/semicommercial counterparts. Across private strategies and study countries, regular monitoring is thought to have the highest efficacy for those in the noncommercial/semicommercial sector, whereas regular disinfection and containment in hard material (as a combined strategy) was found to be the most effective strategy in minimizing risk in the commercial sector. Across public strategies and study countries, experts see surveillance by veterinary services as the most effective public sector HPAI control strategy in both the noncommercial/semicommercial and commercial sectors. Finally, according to the experts, small-scale poultry producers’ likelihood of adoption is low overall, although adoption rates are higher for commercial producers than for noncommercial/semicommercial producers.
    Keywords: Adoption, commercial sector, Delphi study, disease risk introduction and spread, efficacy, expert elicitation, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, HPAI, noncommercial sector, private disease risk minimization strategies, public disease risk minimization strategies, semicommercial sector, small-scale poultry producers,
    Date: 2010
  26. By: Arslan, Aslihan; Reicher, Christopher
    Abstract: The Ethiopian government initiated the Ethiopian Coffee Trademarking and Licensing Initiative in 2004 for three coffee origins: Sidama, Yirgacheffe and Harar. Following a court case between Starbucks and the Ethiopian government regarding this initiative, Oxfam organized a publicity campaign. This paper evaluates the effect of these interventions on the export prices of trademarked Ethiopian coffees. We find that the prices of the trademarked coffees increased by about 10\% following these interventions. The magnitude of this change is comparable with the farm gate prices reported in the literature; however, we cannot establish direct causation or observe the passthrough into farm gate prices. --
    Keywords: Trademarks,coffee prices,Ethiopia
    JEL: O13 F14
    Date: 2010
  27. By: HighQuest Partners, United States
    Abstract: Private financial sector investment in agriculture is a small but rapidly growing phenomenon, involving large scale financial institutions, hedge funds and real estate investment trusts as well as private/public companies pursuing farm ownership/management strategies. This sector has been increasingly attracted to agriculture primarily because of current prospects for income generation, capital appreciation, and uncorrelated returns with equity markets and as a hedge against inflation. Little information has been available concerning the profile and role of private investment groups in this asset class or the impact they are having in the communities where they operate. In an effort to shed some light on these operations, a private consulting firm (HighQuest Partners)1 with a proprietary database of funds active in the crop land and agriculture infrastructure was contracted to undertake a confidential survey of private financial sector investment in agriculture.
    Date: 2010–08–10
  28. By: Ngokkuen, Chuthaporn; Grote, Ulrike
    Abstract: Geographical indications (GIs) have gained more interest since its protection has been ensured multilaterally under the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) Agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Thung Kula Rong-Hai Thai Hom Mali Rice (TKR) is the first officially registered GI Jasmine rice in Thailand. A GI certification is licensed to producers and other business operators of the GI production line through a membership application in a GI club. This paper aims at identifying factors that are likely to predict the behaviour of Thai Jasmine rice households in the Thung Kula Rong-Hai (TKRH) area in adopting a GI certification. A logit model is applied for empirical analyses. The marginal effects of the key factors on the probability of adoption are estimated. All analyses are based on survey data collected through a formal survey in two districts of the TKRH area where 541 Thai Jasmine rice households were selected for interviews using a disproportionate stratified random sampling procedure. The results indicate that institutional and social factors such as information, transportation costs and membership of a cooperative influence the decision to obtain the GI certification of the Thai Jasmine rice households in the TKRH area significantly. --
    Keywords: Geographical Indications,Certification,Adoption,Logit Model,Jasmine rice,Thung Kula Rong-Hai,Thailand
    Date: 2010
  29. By: Steglin, Forrest
    Abstract: Livestock producers operating large-scale confinement operations, such as dairies, are looking for ways to handle and dispose of manure that are cost effective and efficiently meet odor and pollution policies. Farm level production of biogas using anaerobic digesters is one solution that helps control methane emissions. Methane is an odorless gas that can be used to generate electricity, develop fiber products (such as fiber boards, decking, cow pots and building materials) and potting medium as a soil or peat replacement and livestock bedding, establish carbon credits, or provide other value-added products like fertilizer and raw gas or transport fuel, thereby having marketability and economic value. Substantial environmental benefits of odor control, water quality protection, and greenhouse gas reductions also exist. Because of the tangible and intangible benefits possible from reducing methane emissions via anaerobic digesters, biogas recovery systems are prudent financially as well, with single-digit payback periods, double-digit simple rates of return, approximately $1 million (USD) in net present value, double-digit internal rates of return, and relatively large benefit-cost ratios associated with the savings over time.
    Keywords: Agribusiness,
    Date: 2010–06
  30. By: Nogueira, Lia; Marsh, Thomas L.
    Abstract: We calculate the welfare effects of the WSU wheat breeding programs for producers and consumers in Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, the United States and the rest of the world. We develop a partial equilibrium multi-region, multi-product, multi-variety trade model for wheat that provides consumer, producer and total surplus for each wheat class and region. Our results provide evidence suggesting that WSU wheat breeding programs have increased welfare in Washington State, in the United States and the rest of the world.
    Keywords: welfare, wheat breeding programs, economic surplus, partial equilibrium, Agribusiness, F14, F17, Q11, Q16, Q18,
    Date: 2010–06
  31. By: Zabel, Astrid; Engel, Stefanie
    Abstract: Biodiversity, including wildlife, is globally decreasing at alarming rates. This development has evoked calls for innovative conservation policies. In the present paper we explore the novel conservation performance payment approach which for wildlife-livestock conflicts, so far, has only been implemented in Sweden. The contribution of the paper is twofold. A structural framework of performance payments design is developed and an empirical assessment of the approach to tiger-livestock conflicts at Bandhavgarh National Park in India, an example where conservation needs compete with humans increasing demand for land and resources, is presented. The framework focuses on issues of scheme design such as identifying performance indicators, targeting, payment amount and timing, considerations on making payments to groups vs. individuals, scheme duration, and inadvertent side effects. The assessment of the applicability of the performance payment approach to tiger (Panthera tigris) conservation is based on a high-profile policy workshop, an interview with the park management, and 305 household-level interviews conducted in 20 villages in the buffer zone of the park. --
    Keywords: Conservation performance payments,Payments for environmental services,Wildlife-livestock conflicts,India,Sweden
    JEL: Q20
    Date: 2010
  32. By: Areal, Francisco J; Tiffin, Richard; Balcombe, Kelvin
    Abstract: This paper redefines technical efficiency by incorporating provision of environmental goods as one of the outputs of the farm within a multi-outptut distance function framework. Permanent and rough grassland area are used as a proxy for the provision of environmental goods. The multi-output distance function approach is used to estimate technical efficiency. A Bayesian procedure involving the use of a Gibbs sampler is used to estimate the farm specific efficiency as well as the coefficients of the distance function. In addition, a number of explanatory variables for the efficiency were introduced in the analysis and posterior distributions of those were obtained. The methodology is applied to panel data on 215 dairy farms in England and Wales from the Defra Farm Business Survey. Results show that both farm efficiency rankings and determinants of inefficiency change when provision of environmental outputs by farms is incorporated in the efficiency analysis, which may have important political implications.
    Keywords: Technical efficiency; environmental good; multi-output
    JEL: C51 C13 C23 Q12 C11
    Date: 2010
  33. By: Josling, Tim
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, Q17, Q18, Q54,
    Date: 2009–10
  34. By: Zhang, Qingfeng; Watanabe, Makiko; Lin, Tun
    Abstract: The developing world is looking for effective, creative ideas for upscaling clean, renewable energy. No place will gain more socially, economically, and environmentally from increased access to clean, reliable energy than poor, rural areas. Biomass energy, produced from animal and crop wastes, is a sensible renewable energy option for rural areas and it can be cost-effective at community and industry scales if guided effectively by governments. This publication explores the potential of biomass energy to close the urban–rural energy gap, raise farmer incomes, and mend the environment in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Its findings are instructive for other developing and medium-income countries exploring energy-for-all strategies. The report examines the promises and limitations of leading biomass energy technologies and resources for various distribution scales, including but not limited to household biogas digesters. The information is based on lessons learned and experiences from the Asian Development Bank–financed Efficient Utilization of Agricultural Wastes Project in the PRC, as well as findings and conclusions from a technical assistance grant to assist the government draft a national strategy for developing rural biomass energy.
    Keywords: rural biomass energy; rural development; biomass resources; biomass technologies; China
    JEL: O1 O13 Q42 Q4
    Date: 2010–06
  35. By: Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Cioffi, Antonio
    Abstract: The paper explores the characteristics of spatial price dynamics for fresh vegetables. The analysis is carried out on selected EU prices for tomatoes and cauliflowers collected on some of the main production and consumption markets. It is based on the estimation of an time-varying threshold autoregressive econometric specification that is shown capable to underline the asymmetries in inter-Countries price transmission. The model shows that that horizontal price transmissions among net producer and net consumer markets is asymmetric and how such characteristic differs for markets closer to production areas or to consumption locations. This paper allowed to assess the average elapsing time for shocks to be transmitted among spatially separated markets, and, in particular, it shows the speed of transmission of price raises and price falls.
    Keywords: price transmission; TVECM; vegetables
    JEL: C32 Q11 Q17
    Date: 2010–09
  36. By: John F. Tomer
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to explain the main social and economic facts concerning obesity in a way that substantially improves upon existing economic theory. In contrast to existing theory, a number of recent health science writers have explained persuasively that weight gain or loss is not strictly determined by net calorie consumption. These writers have explained that what food people eat and the effect these foods have on hormones such as insulin and hormonal balance are the crucial factors. To understand the rising prevalence of obesity, it is necessary to take into account the growing infrastructure of obesity. This infrastructure includes food processing firms, notably their behavior relating to the qualities of processed food, their marketing of "junk food" and fast food, and their food cost reducing technological changes. Another factor in rising obesity levels are the human capital resources of people, most notably their social capital, personal capital, and health capital. There is evidence that people who are poor in these intangible capacities are the ones with the highest rates of obesity. The essence of the theory is that obesity is the expected result when vulnerable people with low intangible capital resources encounter the many influences of the infrastructure of obesity. These people have gotten stuck in dysfunctional eating and exercise patterns which societal influences have unfortunately encouraged.
    Keywords: Length 39 pages
    Date: 2010–09
  37. By: Jin, Yanhong; Wang, Hua; Wheeler, David
    Abstract: Environmental performance rating and disclosure has emerged as a substitute or complement for traditional pollution regulation, especially in developing countries. Using data from China's Green Watch program, this study extends previous research on performance rating and disclosure by considering firms'perceptions of public and market responses to their ratings. The results suggest that the Green Watch has significantly increased market and stakeholder pressures on managers to improve their firms’ environmental performance. More specifically, controlling for the characteristics of locations, firms, and individual managers, the analysis finds that firms with better ratings perceive positive impacts on market competitiveness, overall market value, and relationships with different stakeholders, while the firms with bad ratings are more likely to perceive deterioration. Among these factors, managers perceive a more active role for markets than for stakeholder relations.
    Keywords: Markets and Market Access,Microfinance,Water and Industry,Brown Issues and Health,Green Issues
    Date: 2010–09–01
  38. By: Tongruksawattana, Songporne; Waibel, Hermann; Schmidt, Erich
    Abstract: Rural households in emerging market economies are often vulnerable to poverty due to negative shocks and limited capacity for effective ex-post coping. This study analyses the relationship between shock types and coping decisions of rural households using the panel survey data of some 2,200 households in Northeast Thailand in the context of the DFG Research Unit 756. Empirical observations show that a large share of households suffered shocks mainly related to ecological, economic, health and social aspects. Results from a univariate probit model show that wealth status and shock severity in terms of income and asset losses encourage coping action. Regarding types of coping measure, asking for remittances from migrant household members and relatives, taking on public support programs, reallocating household resources, borrowing from formal and informal sources, using savings and selling assets are dominant. Multivariate probit model elaborates on the effect of shock types, household characteristics and location factors on the choice of coping activity. Overall, the results suggest that shocks experienced by rural households are likely to negatively affect their future welfare and more effective social risk management strategies are needed. --
    Keywords: Keywords: shocks,coping actions,vulnerability to poverty,rural households,Thailand
    Date: 2010
  39. By: Röttgers, Dirk; Faße, Anja; Grote, Ulrike
    Abstract: Recently biodiesel has become more prominent in countries of the European Union (EU). The rapidly increasing domestic production and consumption of biodiesel is accompanied by increasing trade flows. It is questionable if these trade flows are caused mainly by EU regulations concerning trade or concerning the bioenergy sector. A sector-specific analysis taking industry patterns into consideration is necessary to evaluate the impact of these two policy areas on trade flows. A common way to analyze trade flows is the so-called gravity model, which is employed here. Because of zero-inflated trade data, the model is expanded using the Heckman approach and augmented by spatial weights and Anderson & Van Wincoop's controls for multilateral resistance. The obtained results suggest that while the mandatory biofuel blending quota has a positive impact, investment subsidies cannot be shown to have any effect and trade integration might even have a trade inhibiting effect among EU members. The surprising latter result can be explained by an exhausted domestic European market for raw and intermediate materials for biodiesel and proves stable even when controlling for sector specific variables. --
    Keywords: canola,biofuel,gravity model,trade integration
    JEL: Q17
    Date: 2010

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.