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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2010‒08‒06
53 papers chosen by |
| By: | Valdes, Constanza; Arriola, Christine; Somwaru, Agapi; Gasques, Jose |
| Abstract: | Current climate adaptation polices in Brazil are influencing not only the choice of crops but also many agricultural practices at the farm level including changes in planting and sowing periods, use of irrigation-saving technologies, and increased nitrogen fertilization, among others. The shape and content of these adaptation policies and measures for Brazil are not limited to production agriculture, but include also conservation reserve and risk-reducing farm programs. In addition, the decades-old adaptation and management strategies for agricultural production under tropical conditions carried out by EMBRAPA, Brazilâs premier agricultural research agency, continue to play a prominent role. As Brazil is one the worldâs largest agricultural producers and exporters of agricultural commodities, impacts in Brazil that may occur under different climate scenarios could have broad implications for food supply and prices worldwide. We find that farmersâ adoption of adaptation strategies could result in significant increases in agricultural productivity, changes in suitable crop growing areas, reduced vulnerability to temperature changes, and improved income generation for farmers. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91420&r=agr |
| By: | Jiang, Yong; Koo, Won |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to examine the possible local impacts of cap-and-trade climate policy on agricultural producers in the Northern Plains. This study explicitly considers farmer behavior with respect to agricultural opportunity in carbon offset provision and ability of adaptation to mitigate the production cost impact under a cap-and-trade climate policy. Based on empirically estimated farmer behavior models, a policy simulation with agricultural census data identifies farmer acreage enrollment in carbon offset provision, carbon offset supplies and revenues, the production cost impacts of carbon prices, and impacts on net farm income and their distributions among heterogeneous farmers. Our analysis find that: 1) farmer ex ante preferences in general are biased against participating in carbon credit programs although farmer involvement increases with carbon prices; 2) with the fertilizer industry exempted from cap-and-trade regulation, the production cost impacts would be small, and more than half of the farms or farmland would probably gain for a carbon price higher than $10 per metric ton of carbon; and 3) the production cost impacts with a capped fertilizer industry would be 2 times higher, and more than half of the farms or farmland would lose unless the carbon price could reach beyond $55 per metric ton of carbon. This study sheds some light on agricultural potential to adapt to economy-wide climate change mitigation while providing a bottom-up economic assessment of the costs and benefits of a cap-and-trade climate policy to agricultural producers in the short run. |
| Keywords: | greenhouse gas, cap-and-trade, climate change, agricultural impact, economics, carbon offsets, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91278&r=agr |
| By: | Motamed, Mesbah J.; Arriola, Christine; Hansen, Jim; MacDonald, Steve |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impacts of different irrigation scenarios on Uzbekistan's cotton sector and world cotton trade. The immediate challenges for this region's water resource management represent a test case for the long-run challenges associated with global climate change. With an eye towards this eventuality, this paper describes a variety of water policy scenarios relevant to Central Asia's agriculture and simulates their impacts on cotton markets in this region and around the world. |
| Keywords: | water, cotton, agricultural trade, Central Asia, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91400&r=agr |
| By: | Weindl, Isabelle; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Rolinski, Susanne |
| Abstract: | Until 2050, the global population is projected to reach almost 9 billion people resulting in a rising demand and competition for biomass used as food, feed, raw material and bio-energy, while land and water resources are limited. Moreover, agricultural production will be constrained by the need to mitigate dangerous climate change. The agricultural sector is a major emitter of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG). It is responsible for about 47 % and 58 % of total anthropogenic emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (IPPC, 2007). CH4 emissions are associated with enteric fermentation of ruminants, rice cultivation and manure storage; N2O emissions are related to nitrogen fertilizers and manure application to soils, but also to manure storage. Land use changes, pasture degradation and deforestation are the main sources of agricultural CO2 emissions, where livestock is a major driver of deforestation and climate change, accounting for 18 % of anthropogenic GHG emissions (Steinfeld et al., 2006). In this context, the key role of livestock is to be investigated. According to FAO, livestock uses already about 30% of the Earthâs land surface as resource for grazing while demand for livestock products will continue to rise significantly, especially to feed the animals. For the assessment of future food supply and land-use patterns as well as the environmental impacts of the agricultural sector, there is an urgent need to identify and analyse main characteristics of the livestock sector. Concerning the conversion efficiency of natural resources like land and water to animal products, feeding technologies play a crucial role. They also determine the magnitude of environmental impacts per amount commodity generated. For ten world regions we define the feeding technology for five livestock subsectors as a set of the following parameters: feed mix, feed energy requirements per unit output, and methane emissions per unit output. We calculate these parameters on the basis of FAO Food Balance Sheets and data from the literature. The resulting regional feed demand of marketable feed is consistent with FAO data. To assess the impacts of different feeding technologies, we implement this concept in the global land use model MAgPIE that is appropriate to assess future anthropogenic GHG emissions from various agricultural activities and environmental and economic impacts of different pathways of the agricultural sector by combining socio-economic regional information with spatially explicit environmental data. We compare three alternative feeding scenarios in terms of GHG emissions from agricultural activities (CH4, N2O). We find that methane emissions rise significantly under a scenario of production extensification (i.e. higher roughage shares in feed mixes). Under an intensification scenario, future methane emissions are even lower than in 1995, but N2O emissions from nitrogen fertilizers and manure application to soils increase. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91277&r=agr |
| By: | Ibrahim Soliman; Jacinto F. Fabiosa (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Mohamed Gaber Amer; Siham Kandil |
| Abstract: | From 1986 to 2007 Egypt's agricultural policy transitioned from a tightly controlled to a more liberalized regime. This study examines the impact of this change on the performance of the wheat (imported grain) and rice (exported grain) sectors. In terms of profitability, we found that the cost of production increased substantially in both grains, driven primarily by the rise in land rent and labor wage. But the wheat and rice sectors' profitability did not suffer significantly, as advances in new seed technologies and adoption of better farm practices including farm mechanization increased yield and compensated for the higher cost. Considering market efficiency, we found that over the study period the farmer's share of the consumer's expenditure dropped from 51% to 37% in the case of wheat, while it increased from 24% to 26% in the case of rice. The reverse happened for wholesale and retail margin share, where it increased for wheat and decreased for rice. It is likely that the discipline from foreign suppliers of imported wheat and foreign market opportunities for exported rice may explain the difference in the changes of the distribution of consumer expenditure. Finally, we found that area response elasticity decreased over time from 0.58 to 0.12 for rice and 0.60 to 0.38 for wheat. The lack of response in rice area despite rising prices is attributed to the land limit strictly imposed by the Government of Egypt because of water supply constraint considerations. On the other hand, the lack of response in wheat area despite rising wheat prices may be attributed to the rising competitiveness of Egyptian clover, which is a main feed ingredient for the growing livestock sector. |
| Keywords: | agricultural liberalization, area response elasticity, market efficiency, profitability. |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:10-wp509&r=agr |
| By: | Beach, Robert H.; Thomson, Allison M.; McCarl, Bruce A. |
| Abstract: | There is general consensus in the scientific literature that human-induced climate change has taken place and will continue to do so over the next century. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes with âvery high confidenceâ that anthropogenic activities such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation have affected the global climate. The AR4 also indicates that global average temperatures are expected to increase by another 1.1°C to 5.4°C by 2100, depending on the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases that takes place during this time. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, temperature increases, altered precipitation patterns and other factors influenced by climate have already begun to impact U.S. agriculture. Climate change will continue to have significant effects on U.S. agriculture, water resources, land resources, and biodiversity in the future as temperature extremes begin exceeding thresholds that harm crop growth more frequently and precipitation and runoff patterns continue to change. In this study, we provide an assessment of the potential long-term implications of climate change on landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and production practices in the U.S., combining a crop process model (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model) and an economic model of the U.S. forestry and agricultural sector (Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). Agricultural producers have always faced numerous production and price risks, but forecasts of more rapid changes in climatic conditions in the future have raised concerns that these risks will increase in the future relative to historical conditions. |
| Keywords: | climate change, crop yields, EPIC, FASOM, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C61, Q18, Q54, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91393&r=agr |
| By: | Feix, Rodrigo Daniel; Miranda, SÃlvia Helena G. de |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91280&r=agr |
| By: | Ibrahim Soliman; Jacinto F. Fabiosa (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Mohamed Gaber Amer; Siham Kandil |
| Abstract: | From 1986 to 2007 Egypt's agricultural policy transitioned from a tightly controlled to a more liberalized regime. This study examines the impact of this change on the performance of the wheat (imported grain) and rice (exported grain) sectors. In terms of profitability, we found that the cost of production increased substantially in both grains, driven primarily by the rise in land rent and labor wage. But the wheat and rice sectors' profitability did not suffer significantly, as advances in new seed technologies and adoption of better farm practices including farm mechanization increased yield and compensated for the higher cost. Considering market efficiency, we found that over the study period the farmer's share of the consumer's expenditure dropped from 51% to 37% in the case of wheat, while it increased from 24% to 26% in the case of rice. The reverse happened for wholesale and retail margin share, where it increased for wheat and decreased for rice. It is likely that the discipline from foreign suppliers of imported wheat and foreign market opportunities for exported rice may explain the difference in the changes of the distribution of consumer expenditure. Finally, we found that area response elasticity decreased over time from 0.58 to 0.12 for rice and 0.60 to 0.38 for wheat. The lack of response in rice area despite rising prices is attributed to the land limit strictly imposed by the Government of Egypt because of water supply constraint considerations. On the other hand, the lack of response in wheat area despite rising wheat prices may be attributed to the rising competitiveness of Egyptian clover, which is a main feed ingredient for the growing livestock sector. |
| Keywords: | agricultural liberalization, area response elasticity, market efficiency, profitability. |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:fpaper:10-wp509&r=agr |
| By: | Becker, Arno; Adenauer, Marcel; Blanco Fonseca, Maria |
| Abstract: | Even though recent discussions on food prices and indirect land use change point at potential conflicts associated with the production of biofuels the appraisal of biofuels as an effective instrument to slow down climate change and reduce energy dependency still prevails. The EU Renewable Energy Directive (EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2009) underlines this trend by setting a target of 10% share of energy from renewable sources in the transport sector by 2020. As economic competitiveness of biofuel production is still not given in most European countries, support policies are essential to achieve this target. Second generation technologies have still not attained marketability, wherefore biofuel consumption will continue to significantly affect agricultural markets. Furthermore, biofuel trade receives more attention. Apart from Brazil the USA has evolved to one of the key biofuel producer in recent years replacing the EU as the dominant biodiesel exporter. Those developments in regions outside the EU have to be considered within the evolution of biofuel markets. The primary objective of this paper is to analyse in detail impacts of future biofuel developments on agricultural markets under several assumptions regarding the availability of 2nd generation technologies, the EU support policy framework and the EU trade policy regime. Therefore, we developed an extended version of the comparative static agricultural sector model CAPRI which covers global biofuel markets with a detailed focus on Europe. The results supplement already existing model-based impact assessments while focussing on EU Member State level and introducing global bilateral trade of biofuels based on the Armington approach. The results of our scenario analysis presented in this paper indicate that the European 2020 biofuel target will significantly affect global and European biofuel- as well as agricultural markets. Thereby, global biofuel trade will notably increase, especially flows of biodiesel from the USA and Argentina and of ethanol from Brazil into the EU will increase accentuating the net-importing position of the EU by 2020. On the agricultural markets, we can observe that additional demand caused by European biofuel production will be, on the one hand, partially compensated by substitution effects on the feed market and, on the other hand, mainly filled by increasing imports. Thus, effects on agricultural product prices will also be significant, while effects on EU agricultural production will only be marginal. This leads consequently to only marginal environmental impacts within Europe and confirm the assumption that notable environmental effects caused by EU biofuel production and consumption will mainly take place outside Europe, especially in those countries which are important producers of biofuel feedstock. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91395&r=agr |
| By: | Brooks, Jonathan; Filipski, Mateusz; Jonasson, Erik; Taylor, J Edward |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the Development Policy Evaluation Model (DEVPEM) is to provide an appropriate modelling structure for analysing the welfare and distributional implications of alternative agricultural policies in developing countries. The aim of the model is to provide illustrative results that show how structural diversity among developing countries, and systemic differences from developed OECD countries, can affect the outcomes of alternative policy interventions. The model is relatively stylised, seeking to capture, as simply as possible, four critical aspects of rural economies in developing countries that are important when evaluating the impacts of agricultural and trade policies. These are: (1). The role of the household as both a producer and a consumer of food crops. (2). High transaction costs of participating in markets, resulting in a subsistence sector that often is important in terms of the number of households and the amount of food production it encompasses. (3). Market linkages that can transmit impacts of policy and market shocks among heterogeneous rural producers and consumers, particularly via factor markets (for labour, land or capital, when those markets exist). (4). The imperfect convertibility of land from one use to another. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2010–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc10:91961&r=agr |
| By: | Beach, Robert H.; Daigneault, Adam J.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Rose, Steven K. |
| Abstract: | A key consideration for development of energy and climate policy affecting the forestry and agricultural sectors is that the selection of specific mechanisms implemented to achieve bioenergy production and/or greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets may have substantial effects on landowner incentives to adopt alternative practices. For instance, the prices of allowances and offsets are expected to diverge under some policies being considered where there is a binding cap on the quantity of offsets from the agricultural and forest sectors. In addition, provisions that limit or exclude specific practices from receiving carbon payments will affect the quantity and cost of GHG mitigation opportunities available. In this study, the recently updated Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with GHGs (FASOMGHG) was used to estimate GHG mitigation potential for private land in the contiguous U.S. under a variety of GHG price policies. Model scenarios suggest that U.S. forestry and agriculture could provide mitigation of 200 â 1000 megatons carbon dioxide equivalent per year (Mt CO2e/year) at carbon prices of $15 to $50/tCO2e. Binding limits on offsets have increasingly large effects on both the total magnitude and distribution of GHG mitigation across options over time. In addition, discounting or excluding payments for forest sinks can reduce annualized land-based mitigation potential 37-90 percent relative to the full eligibility scenario whereas discounting or excluding agricultural practices reduces mitigation potential by less than 10 percent. |
| Keywords: | Climate policy, energy policy, FASOMGHG, GHG mitigation, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C61, Q42, Q54, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91394&r=agr |
| By: | Lapple, Doris; Kelley, Hugh |
| Abstract: | Whilst the adoption of agricultural techniques has received considerable attention in the literature, the ability and willingness of potential adopters to change their current farming system is often overlooked. This paper is concerned with the intention of conventional farmers to convert to organic farming by using the social-psychology theory of planned behaviour. Drivers and barriers of conversion to organic farming are identified by applying a belief based concept, which is confirmed using principal component analysis. In addition, accounting for heterogeneity regarding farmersâ environmental attitudes masks considerable differences, notably at intention, attitudes and control perceptions. Overall, results reveal that conversion is indeed affected by attitudes of the farmer, perceived social pressure and ability to convert. |
| Keywords: | Organic farming, Theory of planned behaviour, Principal component analysis, Heterogeneity, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2010–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc10:91949&r=agr |
| By: | Rose, Steven K.; McCarl, Bruce |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates three important energy and climate policy issues: (1) the availability of biomass for electricity generation (i.e., supply), (2) climate policy effects on this supply, and (3) the net greenhouse gas reduction when biomass is used for electricity generation. Using a detailed model of U.S. agriculture and forestry markets and land-use, that includes a broad and diverse set of biomass feedstocks, we evaluate competing potential sub-national and feedstock specific supplies of biomass for U.S. electricity generation. Our preliminary results suggest significant supply, with residues dominating at lower delivered energy prices, and dedicated crops significant at higher prices. Sub-national variation is dramatic and will affect generation siting and sustainability. We find displacement of food crops, but net forest land and cropland expansion. We also find that GHG policies could substantially increase the delivered cost of biomass; however, the implications for individual regions and feedstocks is non-uniform, with some supplies falling to zero and others increasing. Finally, we find that bioelectricity is not carbon neutral, but can be emissions reducing relative to coal generation, yield greater direct GHG benefits than biofuels, and even result in domestic indirect emissions reductions with incentives for forest based feedstocks. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91402&r=agr |
| By: | Leclere, David; Jayet, Pierre-Alain; Zakharov, Paul; De Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie |
| Abstract: | We present here preliminary results of an integrated modelling approach combining a crop model (STICS) and an economic model (AROPAj) of European agricultural supply. This modelling framework is designed to perform quantitative analysis, regarding climate change impacts on agriculture and more generally the interactions between soils, land use, agriculture and climate integrating physical and economical elements (data, process, models). It explicitly integrates an agricultural diversity dimension with regards to economic set of choices and soil climate spatial variability. First results are given in term of quantitative analysis combining optimal land allocation (economic optimality) and âdose-responseâ functions related to a large set of crops in Europe, at the farm group level, covering part of the European Union (EU15). They indicate that accounting for economical and spatial variability may impact both regional aggregated scales results. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91267&r=agr |
| By: | Clonan, Angie; Holdsworth, Michelle; Swift, Judy; Wilson, Paul |
| Abstract: | Although interest in âsustainable foodâ has grown substantially in recent years, an official definition for sustainability has yet to be agreed upon. âSustain: the alliance for better food and farmingâ provide guidance to consumers wishing to make more sustainable food purchases, in the form of seven guiding principles. Using these principles, this study seeks to assess UK consumerâs priorities towards sustainable food. A detailed structured questionnaire explored shopping habits, attitudes to sustainable food components (organic, fair-trade, local food and animal welfare), stated purchasing behaviour and demographic information. Questionnaires were sent to 2,500 randomly selected Nottinghamshire (UK) residents. A response rate of 35.6% was achieved. The data reveals that consumers prioritise packaging, how food is produced and animal welfare when considering sustainable food components. Stated purchasing behaviour demonstrates that âfree rangeâ and âlocalâ products are more likely to take precedence over other sustainability aspects. Future research will seek to compare and contrast stated and actual preferences by comparing the population survey results to actual purchasing behaviour from supermarket data. |
| Keywords: | Consumer, sustainable food, purchasing behaviour, free range, local, animal welfare, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2010–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc10:91948&r=agr |
| By: | Thompson, Wyatt; Meyer, Seth; Westhoff, Pat |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91404&r=agr |
| By: | Blandford, David; Gaasland, Ivar; Vardal, Erling |
| Abstract: | As a result of substantial government support, Norway is more or less self-sufficient in its main agricultural products. This contributes to both trade distortions and higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In multinational negotiations separate efforts are being made to liberalize trade (through the World Trade Organization) and to reduce global GHG emissions (through the United Nations). Using a model of Norwegian agriculture, we explore interconnections between trade liberalization and GHG emission reductions. We show that the Doha proposals would involve no major cut in either agricultural production or GHG emissions due to weakness in the disciplines on trade distorting support. We contrast further trade liberalization and the use of a carbon tax to achieve emission reductions. Trade liberalization involves relatively large impacts on agricultural activity. Trade distortions decrease, and, economic welfare increases substantially due to lower production. For a high cost country like Norway, this indicates that the GHG abatement cost is negative in the sector if no value is attributed to agricultural activity beyond the world market price of food. A more targeted policy to reduce GHG emissions is to use a carbon tax. Compared to the trade liberalization case, both production and land use can be kept at a higher level with only a modest decrease in economic welfare. The side-effect is, however, higher trade distortions. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91261&r=agr |
| By: | Otieno, David J.; Ruto, Eric; Hubbard, L.J. |
| Abstract: | Management of food-borne illnesses is important in ensuring food safety to consumers in both domestic and export markets. In livestock trade, various measures are prescribed under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS) agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO). With regard to food safety, the SPS agreement recommends establishment of Disease Free Zones (DFZs)in order to manage the spread of trans-boundary cattle diseases. DFZs have been successfully implemented in major beef exporting countries such as Australia, Botswana, Brazil and Namibia. In Kenya however, the DFZs are still in a pilot stage and it is important to understand farmersâ preferences on the type of DFZ that would be readily acceptable to them. A choice experiment survey was conducted in Kenya using a D-optimal design to determine the main attributes that farmers prefer in a DFZ. A total of 343 farmers were interviewed and the data analysed using random parameter logit models. Results showed that farmers would be willing to participate in a DFZ where they are provided with adequate training on pasture development, record keeping and disease monitoring skills; cattle are properly labelled for ease of identification; market information and sales contract opportunities are guaranteed; and some monetary compensation is provided in case cattle die due to severe disease outbreaks. Preferences for the DFZ attributes are heterogeneous across different cattle production systems in Kenya. These findings have important implications for policy on the design of DFZ programmes in Kenya and other countries that face cattle disease challenges. |
| Keywords: | Farmer preferences, Disease Free Zone, choice experiment, Random Parameter Logit, Kenya, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2010–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc10:91951&r=agr |
| By: | Cororaton, Caesar B.; Timilsina, Govinda; Mevel, Simon |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of expansion in biofuels on the global economy, income distribution and poverty. It utilizes simulation results of two World Bank models: a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model integrated with biofuels, land-use, and climate change modules, and a global income distribution model that utilizes household survey data of 116 countries. The first model simulates the effects over time of large scale expansion of biofuels on resource allocation, output prices, commodity prices, factor prices, and household income of the different countries and regions in the world. The second model uses these results recursively to calculate the impact on global income distribution and poverty. The results from the CGE model indicate that large scale expansion of biofuels lead to higher world prices of sugar, corn, oilseeds, wheat, and other grains, which lead to higher food prices. The increase in food inflation is higher in developing countries than in developed countries. The expansion of biofuels results in higher wages of unskilled rural labor relative to wages of the other labor types which are skilled urban, skilled rural, and unskilled urban, especially in developing countries. These positive wage effects on unskilled rural labor trigger movement of unskilled urban labor towards rural and agriculture. This is because production of feedstock in developing countries is relatively intensive in the use of unskilled rural labor. The effects of large scale expansion of biofuels on poverty vary across regions. But overall there is a slight increase in global poverty. The increase largely comes from South Asia (particularly India) and Sub-Saharan Africa. Significant number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa show higher poverty with large scale expansion of biofuels. However, poverty declines in East Asia and Latin America regions. Overall, there is a slight increase in the GINI coefficient. There is a slight increase in the GINI coefficient in Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia. There is a small reduction in the GINI coefficient in the rest of the regions. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91279&r=agr |
| By: | Winarsih, Dwi; Sutanto; Augier, Laurent |
| Abstract: | The condition of small-scale farmers in Indonesia is getting worse that is caused by an unfair low price that reflects to the low level of revenue for their income. This happens either because the dependency on trader/middlemen for selling the produce and the low accessibility of farmers to the market. The existence of auction mechanisms created by the Indonesian government auctions is still dominated by traders/middlemen, so that the increasing of prices have not affected to the farmers. Alternatively, by linking directly farmers to the auction mechanism will be analyzed in a descriptive and a qualitative ways from the point of view of price formation in the auction and the farmersâ determining factors to participate in the auction. The analysis conducts policy recommendations for ongoing agricultural auction development with the direct participation of small-scale farmers in the mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Small-scale Farmers, Auction mechanism, price formation, farmerâs motivation, International Development, |
| Date: | 2010–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc10:91946&r=agr |
| By: | Maryla Maliszewska |
| Abstract: | The global food price shock of 2006-2008 has particularly affected poorer strata of populations in several developing countries. In Egypt and some other countries it has put food subsidy schemes to the test. This paper develops two comparable computable general equilibrium models for Egypt and Ukraine which are used to simulate direct and indirect impacts of the food price surge and various policy options on the performance of the main macroeconomic indicators as well as on poverty outcomes. The results illustrate the limited ability of realistic policy responses to mitigate negative social consequences of an external price shock. Food import tariff cuts are a partial remedy faring better than other analysed options. Furthermore, the Egyptian system of food subsidies needs substantial reforms limiting the related fiscal burden and improving the targeting of the poor population. |
| Keywords: | food subsidy, agriculture, price shock, poverty, Ukraine, Egypt |
| JEL: | H24 H53 I32 I38 C63 C68 D58 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:cnstan:0403&r=agr |
| By: | Hertel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Over the past three years, there has been a convergence of interest in the global farm and food system and its contributions to feeding the world’s population as well as to ensuring the environmental sustainability of the planet. The 2007/2008 commodity crisis underscored the vulnerability of the global food system to shocks from extreme weather events, energy and financial markets, as well as government interventions in the form of export bans and other measures designed to avoid domestic adjustment to global scarcity. We have learned that a "perfect storm" in which all these factors coincide can have a devastating impact on the world’s poor, as well as putting considerable pressure on the world’s natural resource base. As we look ahead to the middle of this century, will such commodity price spikes become more commonplace? Will the world’s agricultural resource base be up to the task of meeting the diverse demands being placed on it? |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:3427&r=agr |
| By: | Aurbacher, Joachim; Lippert, Christian; Krimly, Tatjana |
| Abstract: | To assess the impact of climate change on agriculture in German districts, a Ricardian analysis accounting for spatial autocorrelation is used. The analysis relies on land rental prices from agricultural statistics and climate data from the network of German weather observation stations. The results of the cross-sectional analysis show a significant correlation between land rents and increasing mean temperatures, as well as (except for East Germany) a significant increase of land rents along with declining spring precipitation. Next, climate data from the regional climate model REMO are used to calculate local land rent changes under different IPCC scenarios for a time horizon between 2011 and 2040. The overall result is an increase in land rents which relates to 5-6 % of net German agricultural income. In West Germany the increase in land rents rises from the north to south, because of the higher temperature increases in the South of Germany. East Germany shows a greater increase in land rents than West Germany, due to the presently more unfavourable climatic water balance which profits from the increase in spring precipitation. However, agricultural income in Germany might decrease in the long run, when the changes in the climatic conditions will be more severe than those simulated in this study. We plan to extend and improve the research in this field. Different approaches to consider soil qualities at district level shall be compared. In order to understand farmersâ adaptation to different climatic conditions multinomial logit models will be used to investigate how German land use structures depend on the climate. Furthermore, a typology of related transaction costs shall be devised. This will allow the identification of those regions where the adaptation needs and the corresponding costs are likely to be relatively high. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91257&r=agr |
| By: | JOUANJEAN, Marie-Agnès; LE VERNOY, Alexandre |
| Abstract: | There is a pending question regarding the impact of food safety standards promulgated by governments or imposed by buyers from the private sector. Their effects on the capacity for developing countries to access developed countriesâ markets for high value agricultural and food products is a vivid research theme that up-till-now provided mixed results. While some advocates that food safety standards may hamper exporting abilities, others present evidence that they enable competitiveness and act as a pro-poor growth. This paper contributes to this debate. We offer an analysis on how the intensity of trade flows in fruits and vegetables in Central American countries, Dominican Republic and the U.S. respond to both the level of Sanitary and Phytosanitary regulations and to products reputation on the U.S. market subsequent to import detention/refusal. We emphasize the specific case of non-traditional horticultural products introduced in Central American countries in the 70s and 80s under structural adjustment frameworks. To this end, we implement a gravity model of bilateral trade flows to (1) identify the effect through time of food safety standards on exports from Central America to the US, and (2) measure the degree of adaptation to detention/refusal what we define as resilience of the supply chains. First (and highly preliminary) results show that there is indeed a negative relationship between unit prices and reputation on export markets. |
| Keywords: | SPS â Agricultural Trade â Reputation â Alerts, International Relations/Trade, F13, O13, Q17, |
| Date: | 2010–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc10:92000&r=agr |
| By: | Roder, Norbert; Osterburg, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | 6.5% of the German UAA is located on organic soils (fens and bogs). Nevertheless, the drainage of these areas in order to allow their agricultural utilization causes roughly a third of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) of the German agricultural sector, being equivalent to 4% of the total German GHG emissions. Obviously, German policies trying to reduce the GHG emissions successfully must tackle this issue. The abandonment of the cultivation of organic soils would be an effective policy to reduce the GHG emissions however the question remains whether it is an efficient measure compared with the other options? In the paper we compare the land use on mineral and organic soils using the data of the farm structure survey. We assess the mitigation costs on the basis of the standard gross margin of the agriculturally used peatlands and with the sector model RAUMIS. Without engineering and transaction costs the mitigation costs are in the magnitude of 10 to 45 ⬠per to of CO2eq.. This makes rewetting of peatlands at least in the medium and long run a fairly efficient options for reducing GHG emissions, especially as the implications on the sector are fairly small due to reallocation affects. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91270&r=agr |
| By: | Schmidt, Thomas G.; Osterburg, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | How can we estimate the negative externalities of agriculture at the national level, and attribute these to specific production activities and outputs? The paper presents a method that calculates the mass flow in the whole agricultural sector including inputs from other sectors, and that allows to analyse resource use and emissions, e.g. of greenhouse gases. Data inputs are the German economic accounts for agriculture, farm structural survey and market statistics, as well as environmental statistics. In the framework of the German agricultural sector model RAUMIS, material flows within the agricultural sector are described, as well as inputs from other German sectors and imports. Through a processanalytical approach, all information is integrated and matrices of resource use and emissions for all agricultural production activities are generated. A monetary allocation is used to identify the respective activities that are responsible for emissions, including indirect emissions in upstream sectors. Related to the market output, cumulative emissions per unit of output can be computed. Results for the period from 1995 to 2007 show the trend of resource uses and emissions for the national average values of important commodities such as milk and meat. |
| Keywords: | SEEA, Input-Output Analysis, agriculture, resource use, trade, emissions, carbon footprint, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91268&r=agr |
| By: | Clancy, Daragh; Breen, James; Thorne, Fiona; Wallace, Michael |
| Abstract: | There is increasing interest in biomass crops as an alternative farm enterprise. However, given the relatively low uptake of these crops in Ireland, there is limited information concerning the risk associated with their production and its potential impact on returns. The uncertainty surrounding risky variables such as the costs of production, yield level, price per tonne and opportunity cost of land make it difficult to accurately calculate the returns to biomass crops. Their lengthy production lifespan may only serve to heighten the level of risk that affects key variables. A stochastic budgeting model is used to calculate the returns from willow and miscanthus. The opportunity cost of land is accounted for through the inclusion of the foregone returns from selected conventional agricultural activities. The potential for bioremediation to boost returns is also examined. The NPV of various biomass investment options are simulated to ascertain the full distribution of possible returns. The results of these simulations are then compared using their respective CDFâs and the investments are ranked using Stochastic Efficiency with Respect to a Function (SERF). |
| Keywords: | Biomass, Bioremediation, Stochastic Budgeting, NPV, SERF, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc10:91955&r=agr |
| By: | Saunders, Caroline; Kaye-Blake, William |
| Abstract: | In the land-based sectors, agricultural production generally is a source of carbon, while forestry may be thought to act as a sink. This paper focuses on new research examining the interaction of the two. The core of the research is the Lincoln Trade and Environment model (LTEM), a partial equilibrium model which links trade in NZ with the main trading countries overseas, through to production and associated environmental consequences . This paper reports on research expanding the model to include forestry from incorporating the capabilities of the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) into the LTEM and hence producing an integrated model of agricultural and forestry land-uses for NZ and overseas. The paper extends the environmental modelling capabilities of the LTEM to include the impacts of climate change. The paper thereby reports on the development of a model of international trade that encompasses major agricultural commodities and forestry, complete with linkages and feedback with the environment and differentiated international markets. The paper then presents results of scenarios around changes in consumer behaviour and production using the new model. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc10:91947&r=agr |
| By: | Durand-Morat, Alvaro; Wailes, Eric |
| Keywords: | rice, spatial trade model, bilateral trade, policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C02, C61, F11, F14, Q17, Q18, |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uarksp:92010&r=agr |
| By: | Hertel, Thomas W.; Rosch, Stephanie D. |
| Abstract: | Even though much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. In this article, we focus on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at the forefront of climate change mitigation efforts in developing countries. In so doing, we offer some important insights that may help shape future policies as well as ongoing research in this area. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91437&r=agr |
| By: | Femenia, Fabienne; Gohin, Alexandre |
| Abstract: | Economic analyses of farm policies generally focus on the long run, steady state impacts while the transition dynamics are often overlooked. In this paper we develop a determinist dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis allowing agents to form imperfect versus pefect expectations. Using an illustrative CAP reform scenario, we simulate an abrupt versus a gradual implementation of this reform. Our results show that if economic agents are able to perfectly anticipate the impacts of the reform, then delaying its implementation is never optimal. On the other hand, if agents gradually learn from market developments, then we find some cases where a gradual implementation of this reform is welfare improving. Such gradual implementation allows minimizing adjustment costs. |
| Keywords: | Dynamics, Transition, Farm Policies, Welfare, Agricultural and Food Policy, Political Economy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91285&r=agr |
| By: | Zahniser, Steven; Arriola, Christine; Somwaru, Agapi |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91406&r=agr |
| By: | Lee, Sangjun; Thornsbury, Suzanne |
| Abstract: | When assessing climate change impact, adaptation is an important behavioral response to reduce potential risk. But it has been widely recognized that there are barriers to adaptation. And attempts to estimate impacts may be biased when these barriers neglected. Potential barrier on adaptation decision from market structure have not been identified. We develop a theoretical model to evaluate adaptation incentives of farmers under climate change across various market structures. In agricultural production where acreage adjustment is costly, our theoretical model suggests that the âcompetition effectâ plays an important role in determining incentives to adapt. The competition effect in the market may outweigh the production effect and reduce producer incentives to change production practices. Results also suggest that monopolists may have a higher incentive to adapt since the market is under their direct control with less competition even though these incentives are still much smaller than socially optimal levels. In contrast, there can be strategic interactions among players which can lead to inaction (not investing in adaptations) due to the threat of potentially higher competition in other market structures. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Industrial Organization, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91258&r=agr |
| By: | Dorosh, Paul; Wang, Hyoung-Gun; You, Liang; Schmidt, Emily |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between transport infrastructure and agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa using new data obtained from geographic information systems (GIS). First, the authors analyze the impact of road connectivity on crop production and choice of technology. Second, they explore the impact of investments that reduce road travel times. Finally, they show how this type of analysis can be used to compare cost-benefit ratios for alternative road investments in terms of agricultural output per dollar invested. The authors find that agricultural production is highly correlated with proximity (as measured by travel time) to urban markets. Likewise, adoption of high-productive/high-input technology is negatively correlated with travel time to urban centers. There is therefore substantial scope for increasing agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in more remote areas. Total crop production relative to potential production is 45 percent for areas within four hours’ travel time from a city of 100,000 people. In contrast, it is just 5 percent for areas more than eight hours away. Low population densities and long travel times to urban centers sharply constrain production. Reducing transport costs and travel times to these areas would expand the feasible market size for these regions. Compared to West Africa, East Africa has lower population density, smaller local markets, lower road connectivity, and lower average crop production per unit area. Unlike in East Africa, reducing travel time does not significantly increase the adoption of high-input/high-yield technology in West Africa. This may be because West Africa already has a relatively well-connected road network. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Climate Change and Agriculture,Regional Economic Development,Economic Theory&Research |
| Date: | 2010–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5385&r=agr |
| By: | Moran, Dominic; Macleod, Michael; Wall, Eileen; Eory, Vera; McVittie, Alistair; Barnes, Andrew; Rees, Robert; Topp, Cairistiona F.E.; Moxey, Andrew |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the challenge of developing a âbottom-upâ marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) for greenhouse gas emissions from UK agriculture. A MACC illustrates the costs of specific crop, soil, and livestock abatement measures against a ââbusiness as usualââ scenario. The results indicate that in 2022 under a specific policy scenario, around 5.38 MtCO2 equivalent (e) could be abated at negative or zero cost. A further 17% of agricultural GHG emissions (7.85 MtCO2e) could be abated at a lower unit cost than the UK Governmentâs 2022 shadow price of carbon (£34 (tCO2e)-1). The paper discusses a range of methodological hurdles that complicate cost-effectiveness appraisal of abatement in agriculture relative to other sectors. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Marginal abatement costs, Agriculture, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q52, Q 54, Q58, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91399&r=agr |
| By: | Dominguez, Ignacio Perez; Britz, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | In this paper the agricultural sector model CAPRI is expanded to cover non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural sources in Europe and policy instruments for their reduction. A stylised spatial trade model for emission permits is methodologically described and applied to the assessment of three potential policy alternatives for enforcing emission reductions from European agriculture: the EU âeffort sharing agreementâ, an EU-wide emission trading scheme between regions inside each Member State and, finally, an EUwide emission trading scheme between all European regions. This paper builds in the experience accumulated by Pérez DomÃnguez et al. (2010) and provides a through review of the underlying methodology, a expansion of emission sources and a larger projection line (year 2020). Results shows the importance of selecting an adequate combination of instruments of emission abatement for the design of efficient emission reduction policies. |
| Keywords: | Copenhagen agreement, effort sharing agreement, agricultural policy, economic modelling, tradable emission permits, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91396&r=agr |
| By: | Francesco Pecci (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Elisa Montresor (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Nicola Pontarollo (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:08/2010&r=agr |
| By: | Drabik, Dusan; de Gorter, Harry |
| Abstract: | Leakage in the fuel market differs, depending on whether ethanol production is determined by a tax credit or consumption mandate. Two components of market leakage are distinguished: domestic and international. Leakage with both a tax credit and a consumption mandate depends on market elasticities and consumption/production shares, with the former having a bigger impact. Leakage is also more sensitive to changes in market supply and demand elasticities in the country not introducing biofuels. Although positive with a tax credit, market leakage can be negative with a consumption mandate, meaning that one gallon of ethanol can replace more than a gallon of gasoline. We also show that being a small country biofuels producer does not necessarily mean that leakage for this country is 100 percent. Our numerical estimates show that one gallon of ethanol replaces approximately 0.2-0.3 gallons of gasoline in the U.S. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91265&r=agr |
| By: | Golub, Alla; Hertel, Thomas; Taheripour, Farzad; Tyner, Wally |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, biofuels production in the EU and US has boomed - much of this due to government mandates and subsidies. The US has now surpassed Brazil as the world's leading producer of ethanol. The economic and environmental impact of these biofuel programs has become an important question of public policy. Due to the complex intersectoral linkages between biofuels and crops, livestock as well as energy activities, CGE modeling has become an important tool for their analysis. This chapter reviews recent developments in this area of economic analysis, and suggests directions for future research. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:3406&r=agr |
| By: | Bojnec, Å tefan; FertÅ, Imre |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of the number of the Internet users on food industry trade between developed OECD countries using both panel and cross-sectional data. We find the positive, significant and over time increasing effect of the Internet on food industry exports confirming that the Internet reduces market-specific entry costs for food industry exports. The significant positive effect pertained to the Internet is found in the importing countries. The significant positive effects on food industry exports are found for the countryâs economic size and bilateral common features and proximities. The Internet mitigates the countries proximities, but increased the distance between the countries. |
| Keywords: | Internet, Distance, International trade, OECD countries, International Development, |
| Date: | 2010–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc10:91958&r=agr |
| By: | Raghav Gaiha; Raghbendra Jha; Vani S. Kulkarni |
| Abstract: | Building on a recent important contribution by Deaton and Dreze (2009), our analysis sheds new light on why the calorie Engel curve shifted down-especially in rural India- over the period 1993–2004. The puzzle for the longer period analysed by Deaton and Dreze (2009) is that despite higher incomes per capita calorie consumption was lower at a given level of per capita household expenditure, across the expenditure scale, in 2004. In trying to resolve this puzzle, they are emphatic that the decline in calorie intake reflects lower calorie requirements due mainly to better health and lower activity levels. Using a standard demand framework, our resolution is different. The important role of food prices in inducing changes in consumption-through both own and cross-price effects — is confirmed. Although calorieincome/ expenditure elasticities are large, stagnation of incomes in rural areas over the period 1993–2004 suggests that prices had a decisive role in lowering calorie intake. Controlling for all these and unobserved effects, there was a significant negative effect of a time dummy which is arguably linked to improvements in health and lower activity levels. Policy interventions designed to stabilise food prices and expand livelihood opportunities in rural areas thus remain an important concern despite differing views on whether pervasive nutritional deprivation is real. |
| Keywords: | calories, protein, fats, deprivation, prices, expenditure, India |
| JEL: | C21 D12 I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2010-15&r=agr |
| By: | De Pinto, Alessandro; Robertson, Richard |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91272&r=agr |
| By: | Katharina Wick (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna); Christine Heumesser (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna); Erwin Schmid (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna) |
| Abstract: | Nitrogen is an important input to agricultural production but also detrimentally affects the environmental quality of air, soil and water. Identifying the determinants of nitrate pollution and in turn defining sensible performance indicators to design, enforce and monitor regulatory policies is therefore of utmost importance. Using data on more than 1000 Austrian municipalities, we provide a detailed econometric analysis of (1) the determinants of nitrate concentration in groundwater, and (2) the predictive abilities of one of the most commonly used agri-environmental indicators, the Nitrogen Balance. We find that the proportion of cropland exerts a positive effect on the nitrate content in groundwater. Additionally, environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation are found to be important. Higher average temperature leads to lower nitrate pollution of groundwater possibly due to increased evapotranspiration. Equally, higher average precipitation dilutes nitrate content in the soil, reducing nitrate concentration in groundwater. To assess the Nitrogen Balance, we link observed pollution levels to the theoretical indicator and evaluate its ability to measure nitrate pollution effects. Indeed, the indicator proves to be a good predictor for nitrate pollution. We also show that its predictive power can be improved if average precipitation of a region is taken into account. If average precipitation is higher, the Nitrogen Balance predicts nitrate levels in groundwater more precisely. |
| Keywords: | nitrate concentration, groundwater contamination, Nitrogen Balance, agriculture, regression analysis |
| JEL: | Q10 Q53 |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sed:wpaper:492010&r=agr |
| By: | Spoerer, Mark |
| Abstract: | Since its inception, the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has been discussed controversely. Data from the OECD and the World Bank show that the protectionist effects of the CAP between the 1960s and the 1980s were larger than those of its national predecessors. Moreover, there is evidence that already the piecemeal reforms of the 1980s re-duced the level of protection and support in the EU, that is prior to the MacSharry reform of 1992. |
| Keywords: | Common Agricultural Policy; agricultural policy; protectionism; European integration; producer support estimate |
| JEL: | N54 N74 F13 Q18 |
| Date: | 2010–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:24120&r=agr |
| By: | Holst, Rainer; Yu, Xiaohua |
| Abstract: | Drawing on the method developed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979), this paper separately analyzes the marginal contributions of both regular input factors and climate factors to mean output and to production risk in Chinese inland aquaculture. Furthermore, the net change in output following a 1°C increase in annual average temperature will be determined. According to the results obtained, the impending changes in global climate will have both positive and negative impacts. While an increment in annual average temperatures will increase mean output and decrease production risk, an increase in temperature variability will reduce mean output and cause a higher level of production risk. The corresponding measures of precipitation however have no significant impact on mean output and production risk. Finally, a 1°C increase in annual average temperature is, ceteris paribus, likely to increase national mean output by 1.47 million tons. |
| Keywords: | Aquaculture, climate change, production risk, China, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, Q1, Q54, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatr10:91275&r=agr |
| By: | Vijay Paul Sharma; Kalpesh Kumar; Raj Vir Singh |
| Abstract: | In response to structural transformations taking place in the Indian dairy sector mainly in processing segment this paper examines determinants of market channel choices of milk producers based on asurvey of 390 farm households in 2007. It also attempts to investigate what impacts these market channel choices may have on farmers’ income and technology adoption. [W.P. No. 2009-02-01] |
| Keywords: | Agrifood markets, small‐scale farmer, cooperatives, multinomial logit model, India |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2727&r=agr |
| By: | Kindi Fredrick Immanuel (Makerere University) |
| Abstract: | Since the late 1980s to 2006, the northern region of Uganda underwent an armed conflict between the government of Uganda and the rebel group led by Joseph Kony. The conflict displaced virtually the entire population in the region, and by 1990 people were living in Internally Displaced peoples’ camps. As the war winds up, many people have left the camps returning to their former villages. The journey back home has not been easy, however. For women in particular, many are facing a lot of challenges especially related to access, ownership and use of land. Using data that was qualitatively gathered in two IDP camps in Gulu district, northern Uganda, the paper examines these challenges. It argues however that despite the challenges, opportunities do exist that can be exploited, if there is commitment by various stakeholders, to ensure that women access, own and use land in the return process. |
| Keywords: | armed conflict, women, land rights, IDPs, reconstruction |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcn:rwpapr:26&r=agr |
| By: | Geeta Kingdon |
| Abstract: | Using new and unique panel data, we investigate the role of long-term health and childhood malnutrition in schooling outcomes for children in rural India, many of whom lack basic numeracy and literacy skills. Using data on students’ performance on mathematics and Hindi tests, we examine the role of the endogeneity of health caused by omitted variables bias and measurement error and correct for these problems using a household fixed effects estimator on a sub-sample of siblings observed in the data. We also present several extensions and robustness checks using instrumental variables and alternative estimators. We find evidence of a positive causal effect of long-term health measured as height-for-age z-score (HAZ) on test scores, and the results are consistent across several different specifications. The results imply that improving childhood nutrition will have benefits that extend beyond health into education. |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition, Schooling, India |
| JEL: | I12 I21 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2010-14&r=agr |
| By: | Ping-Yu Chen; Chia-Lin Chang; Chi-Chung Chen; Michael McAleer (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the volatility in global fertilizer prices. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, and GJR model are estimated for six global fertilizer prices and the crude oil price. Weekly data for 2003-2008 for the seven price series are analysed. The empirical results suggest that the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in other periods, and that the peak crude oil price caused greater volatility in the crude oil price and global fertilizer prices. |
| Keywords: | Volatility; Global fertilizer price; Crude oil price; Non-renewable fertilizers; Structural breakpoint unit root test |
| Date: | 2010–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:10/46&r=agr |
| By: | Zhen Miao; John C. Beghin; Helen H. Jensen (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC)) |
| Abstract: | In order to reduce obesity and associated costs, policymakers are considering various policies, including taxes, to change consumers' high-calorie consumption habits. We investigate two tax policies aimed at reducing added sweetener consumption. Both a consumption tax on sweet goods and a sweetener input tax can reach the same policy target of reducing added sweetener consumption. Both tax instruments are regressive, but the associated surplus losses are limited. The tax on sweetener inputs targets sweeteners directly and causes about five times less surplus loss than the final consumption tax. Previous analyses have overlooked this important point. |
| Keywords: | added sweeteners, consumption tax, demand, health policy, soda tax, sugar. |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:10-wp510&r=agr |
| By: | Cook, David C.; Liu, Shuang; Fraser, Rob W.; Siddique, Abu-Baker; Paini, Dean R. |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a demonstration of how a comprehensive economic framework, which takes into account both the gains from trade and the costs of invasive species outbreaks, can inform decision-makers when making quarantine decisions. Using the theoretical framework developed in Cook and Fraser (2008) an empirical estimation is made of the economic welfare consequences for Australia of allowing quarantine-restricted trade in New Zealand apples to take place. The results suggest the returns to Australian society from importing New Zealand apples are likely to be negative. The price differential between the landed product with SPS measures in place and the autarkic price is insufficient to outweigh the increase in expected damage resulting from increased fire blight risk. As a consequence, this empirical analysis suggests the net benefits created by opening up this trade are marginal. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2010–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc10:91957&r=agr |
| By: | Lopez, Ramon E. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the interactions between harvesters that depend on the renewable resource as a vital factor of production (i.e., fisheries) and industries that can have important impacts on the renewable resource but whose production does not depend on it (i.e., off-shore oil extraction) in the context of a growing economy. We examine these issues in the context of a closed economy focusing on how the co-existence between these two sectors affects the potential for sustainable development and how the well-being of the poor, i.e., the harvesters, is affected. We identify conditions under which existence and expansion of a resource-impacting sector may make sustainable development more likely. However, if these conditions are not met growth of the resource-impacting sector leads to resource depletion or even complete extinction and thus to the disappearance of the harvesting activity over the long run. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umdrwp:92390&r=agr |
| By: | Halkos, George |
| Abstract: | It is reasonable to consider the stock of any renewable resource as a capital stock and treat the exploitation of that resource in much the same way as one would treat accumulation of a capital stock. This has been done to some extent in earlier papers containing a discussion of this point of view. However, the analysis is much simpler than it appears in the literature especially since the interaction between markets and the natural biology dynamics has not been made clear. Moreover renewable resources are commonly analyzed in the context of models where the growth of the renewable resource under consideration is affected by two factors: the size of the resource itself and the rate of harvesting. This specification does not take into account that human activities other than harvesting can have an impact on the growth of the natural resource. Furthermore, natural resource harvesting are not productive factories. Fishery economic literature (based on the foundations of Gordon, 1954; Scott, 1955; and Smith, 1963) suggests particular properties of the ocean fishery which requires tools of analysis beyond those supplied by elementary economic theory. An analysis of the fishery must take into account the biological nature of fundamental capital, the fish and it must recognize the common property feature of the open sea fishery, so it must allow that the fundamental capital is the subject of exploitation. The purpose of this paper is the presentation of renewable resources dynamic models in the form of differential games aiming to extract the optimal equilibrium trajectories of the state and control variables for the optimal control economic problem. We show how methods of infinite horizon optimal control theory may be developed for renewable resources models. |
| Keywords: | Renewable resources; exploitation of natural resources; dynamic optimization; optimal control |
| JEL: | Q32 C61 C62 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:24119&r=agr |