New Economics Papers
on Agricultural Economics
Issue of 2009‒12‒05
fourteen papers chosen by

  1. Agricultural Crisis in India: The Root Cause and Consequences By Dhas, Albert Christopher
  2. Improving Food Security in Africa: Highlights of 25 Years of Research, Capacity-Building, and Outreach. By MSU Food Security Group
  3. High Food Prices and Developing Countries: Policy Responses at Home and Abroad By Cardwell, Ryan; Barichello, Richard
  4. Revisiting Barriers to Trade: Do Foregone Health Benefits Matter? By Zhang, Sidi; Kerr, William A.
  5. Grain Contracting Strategies: The Case of Durum Wheat By Wilson, William W.; Dahl, Bruce
  6. The Impact of Trade Barriers on Mandated Biofuel Consumption in Canada By Le Roy, Danny; Elobeid, Amani E.; Klein, K.K.
  7. Nutrition and Risk Sharing Within the Household By Dubois, Pierre; Ligon, Ethan
  8. The Impact of Trade Barriers on Mandated Biofuel Consumption in Canada By Le Roy, Danny G.; Elobeid, Amani E.; Klein, K.K.
  9. Grain Contracting Strategies to Induce Delivery and Performance in Volatile Markets By Wilson, William W.
  10. Assessing the Relationship between Probability of Default and Loss Given Default in an Agricultural Loan Portfolio By Sakaimbo, Nicholas K.; Pederson, Glenn D.
  11. Water Allocation Among Multiple Uses Using Interactive Decision Maps By Rui Fragoso; Vladimir Bushenkov; Carlos Marques
  12. Role of Panel Analysis in Identifying Asymmetric Information with Optional Unit Provision in Federal Crop Insurance By Shaik, Saleem
  13. How is the Global Recession Impacting on Poverty and Social Spending? An ex ante assessment methodology with applications to developing Asia By Francisco, Ruth; Wan, Guanghua

  1. By: Dhas, Albert Christopher
    Abstract: Agricultue in India is undergoing a structural change leading to a crisis situation. The rate of growth of agricultural output is gradually declining in the recent years. The relative contribution of agriculture to the GDP has been declining over time steadily. The performance of agriculture by crop categories also clearly indicates the slowing down process of agriculture in India. The onset of deceleration in agriculture began from early nineties and it became sharp from the late nineties. The trends in the area, input use, capital stock and technology also reflect the agricultural downfall and the farmer’s response accordingly. It is alarming that India is moving towards a point of no return, from being a self-reliant nation of food surplus to a net importer of food. All these trends indicate that the agricultural sector in India is facing a crisis today. It is argued that the root cause of the crisis was that agriculture is no more a profitable economic activity when compared to other enterprises. It means that the income derived from these activities is not sufficient enough to meet the expenditure of the cultivators. And therefore, unless agriculture is made a profitable enterprise, the present crisis cannot be solved. The related factors responsible for the crisis include: dependence on rainfall and climate, liberal import of agricultural products, reduction in agricultural subsidies, lack of easy credit to agriculture and dependence on money lenders, decline in government investment in the agricultural sector and conversion of agricultural land for alternative uses. It is argued that the consequence of agricultural crisis in India is very vast and likely to hit all the other sectors and the national economy in several ways. In specific, it has adverse effects on food supply, prices of foodgrains, cost of living, health and nutrition, poverty, employment, labour market, land loss from agriculture and foreign exchange earnings. In sum, it revealed that the agricultural crisis would be affecting a majority of the people in India and the economy as a whole in the long run. And therefore, it can be argued that the crisis in agriculture is a crisis of the country as a whole. Ihe only remedy to the crisis is to do all that is possible to make agriculture a profitable enterprise and attract the farmers to continue the crop production activities. As an effort towards this direction, the government should augment its investment and expenditure in the farm sector. Investment in agriculture and its allied sectors, including irrigation, transport, communication, rural market, rural infrastructure and farm research, should be drastically increased, and the government should aim at integrated development of the rural areas. The solution of the problem is not in a few “packages” but in drastic changes in the present economic policies related to agriculture. No other sector’s growth and development must be at the cost of agriculture. All farmers, agricultural labourers, societies, Government and People’s Organisations should work collectively to revive agriculture and “Save India from Agriculture Crisis”.
    Keywords: Agriculture; Agriculture Crisis; Crisis; Agricultural Crisis; agriculture deceleration; slowdown; Farming Crisis; India; Causes; Consequences; impact; Foodgrains; Public Investment; Agriculural Credit; Agriculture performance; Contribution from Agriculture; Agricultural Situation;
    JEL: Q1 H50 P17 R5
    Date: 2009–11–30
  2. By: MSU Food Security Group
    Abstract: Decades of research have led to substantially improved understanding of the nature of food insecurity. A combination of economic growth and targeted programs resulted in a steady fall (until the food crisis of 2007/08) in the percentage of the worldâs population suffering from undernutrition (from 20% in 1990/92 to 16% in 2006). Yet over a billion people still face both chronic and/or transitory food insecurity due to long-standing problems of inadequate income, lowproductivity in agricultural production and marketing, and related problems of poor health and absence of clean water. Assuring adequate food security for such a large share of the worldâs population is increasingly challenging due to continuing resource degradation driven by a combination of population pressure and outdated agricultural practices, poorly functioning input markets, rapid urbanization, increased concerns about food safety, and climate change. This document contains an overview of the past 25 years of research, capacity-building, and outreach by MSUâs Food Security Group. The paper describes key elements of the FSG approach and draws lessons regarding the value of that model. Insights gained from research and outreach and their value in addressing the major current challenges facing food and agricultural systems in Africa are summarized in FSG (2009).
    Keywords: Africa, Food Security, research, capacity building, outreach, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Land Economics/Use, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, q10, q18, q12, q13,
    Date: 2009–10
  3. By: Cardwell, Ryan; Barichello, Richard
    Keywords: food aid, trade, policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2009–10
  4. By: Zhang, Sidi; Kerr, William A.
    Keywords: trade health wto policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy,
    Date: 2009–10
  5. By: Wilson, William W.; Dahl, Bruce
    Abstract: One of the impacts of higher prices along with greater volatility in futures, basis and spreads is that there is pressure for greater use of cash contracts for grain. There is a wide array of cash contracts with varying terms that pose major strategic alternatives for buyers and the marketing system, particularly as buyers seek to use contracting as an element of risk mitigation. Durum is a crop where many of these issues and challenges are apparent. Durum is more risky than competing crops with greater price, yield and quality risk. And in contrast to competing crops, futures do not exist, cross hedging is poor and forward contracting has been used minimally. There are three purposes of this article: Provide a survey of contract terms used in grain contracting with growers, illustrate some issues in contracting of some of the specialty grains (durum) in the upper Midwest, and develop a model to analyze alternative contracting strategies in the case of durum. We introduce alternative pricing features, and explore other alternatives and analyze them in terms of risk and return to growers.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Marketing,
    Date: 2009–08
  6. By: Le Roy, Danny; Elobeid, Amani E.; Klein, K.K.
    Keywords: biofuel ethanol trade canada, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2009–10
  7. By: Dubois, Pierre; Ligon, Ethan
    Abstract: Using data on individual consumption from farm households in the Philippines, we construct a direct test of risk-sharing within the household. We contrast the efficient outcomes predicted by the unitary household model with the outcomes we might expect if food consumption delivers not only utils, but also nutrients affecting future productivity. The efficiency conditions which characterize the within-household allocation of food under the unitary model are violated, as consumption responds to earnings shocks. If productivity depends on nutrition, this explains some but not all of the response, as earnings "surprises" have some effect on the cost and composition of diet.
    Keywords: Nutrition; Risk sharing; Within Household
    JEL: D12 O12
    Date: 2009–11
  8. By: Le Roy, Danny G.; Elobeid, Amani E.; Klein, K.K.
    Abstract: In 2008 the Canadian government passed amendments to the Environmental Protection Act requiring five percent ethanol in transportation fuels sold in Canada by 2010 and two percent renewable content in diesel and heating fuels by 2012. Agricultural commodity and other groups have lobbied for further marketplace intervention that would ensure the biofuel needed to meet the legislated requirement be produced from domestic sources. Indeed, many of these special interests would like the biofuels content increased from five to ten percent and for the increase to be met by domestic firms only. The objective of this study is to compare the relative economic impacts in Canada of achieving a ten percent biofuel content either through increased imports or by substituting domestic production in place of increased imports.
    Keywords: biofuel trade policy ethanol canada, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2009–10
  9. By: Wilson, William W.
    Abstract: One of the impacts of higher prices along with greater volatility in futures and basis is that there is pressure for an escalation in cash contracting for grain. This volatility has resulted in an unprecedented level of contracting with growers for specific purchases in recent years. There is a wide array of cash contracts with varying terms. Beyond that array, there is also a growing realization of growers not delivering on contracts, in part due to escalation in post-contract prices. This realization is evolving as a major strategic issue for buyers and the marketing system, particularly as buyers seek to use such contracting strategies as an element of risk mitigation. There are three purposes of this article. First is to provide a broad survey of contract terms used in grain contracting with growers. An emphasis of these terms relates to options and mechanisms used to entice performance. Second, we illustrate some issues in contracting of some of the grains (durum, malting barley) in the upper Midwest. Third, we show some of the common contract clauses being adapted in these contracts. Finally, we summarize these issues with respect to industry implications.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Financial Economics, C15, D81, Q12,
    Date: 2009–05
  10. By: Sakaimbo, Nicholas K.; Pederson, Glenn D.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance,
    Date: 2009–11
  11. By: Rui Fragoso (Universidade de Evora, Departamento de Gestão, ICAM/CEFAGE-UE); Vladimir Bushenkov (Universidade de Evora, Departamento de Matemática, CIMA); Carlos Marques (Universidade de Evora, Departamento de Gestão, CEFAGE-UE)
    Abstract: Alqueva dam in the Alentejo Region was developed to solve water scarcity in the South of Portugal and to ensure permanent availability of water for household and industrial consumption, irrigation, production of electric energy, and ecological and environmental purposes. Competition among some of these multiple water uses requires an integrated management framework. This paper uses Interactive Decision Maps (IDM) technique to explore and achieve efficient and equitable water allocation combinations taking into account those multiple goals and principles of good water governance.
    Keywords: Operations Research, Water Management, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Interactive Decision Maps, Feasible Goal Method, Alqueva
    JEL: Q2 Q25 C6 C61
    Date: 2009
  12. By: Shaik, Saleem
    Abstract: This paper has a two-fold contribution, first we demonstrate the relationship of spatial, temporal and residual yield risk estimated from a two-way panel random effects model to asymmetric information with an optional unit provision in the federal crop insurance program. Second, the yield risk components are incorporated in a discrete choice model to examine the presence of asymmetric information due to potential yield switching with optional unit provisions. Empirical application to 1998 U.S. cotton cro
    Keywords: Adverse Selection, Moral Hazard, Optional Unit Policy, Crop Insurance, U.S. Cotton, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, D82, G22, Q10,
    Date: 2009–03
  13. By: Francisco, Ruth; Wan, Guanghua
    Abstract: The global economic recession is severely affecting Asian economies. Timely assessment of the economic and social impacts is critical to the formulation and implementation of policy responses. This paper presents a simple methodology of ex ante impact assessment, focusing specifically on how the global recession will affect poverty and social expenditures in developing Asian countries. This involves two steps: first, to gauge how the crisis will affect national and household incomes; and, second, to assess how the income effects are transmitted to poverty and social spending.
    Keywords: social impact assessment; developing asia; global recession
    JEL: O11 C02
    Date: 2009–08
  14. By: Camilo Alexander Ramirez Arias
    Abstract: Este artículo presenta un análisis crítico de la estructura y el problema agrario en Colombia. A través de una aproximación integra a éste, obtenemos que el conflicto social y armado actual que se presenta en el territorio nacional, tiene algunas de sus raíces en causas sociales derivadas de la pésima situación del agro. Este trabajo intenta retomar el análisis y debate en torno al sector rural en Colombia; también, busca aportar en la construcción de una propuesta de completa solución a dicha problemática, la cual necesariamente se deriva de la indispensable reforma agraria integral para el caso colombiano
    Date: 2009–10–01

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