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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2008‒04‒12
twenty papers chosen by |
| By: | Sands, Ronald; Kim, Man-Keun |
| Abstract: | *Chapter 7 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol. The Agriculture and Land Use (AgLU) model was developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to assess the impact of a changed climate or a climate policy on land use, carbon emissions from land use change, production of field crops, and production of biofuels. The level of analysis to date is relatively aggregate, at the global or national scale, but the model captures important interactions such as endogenous land use change in response to a climate policy and international trade in agricultural and forest products. This paper describes exploratory efforts to extend the conceptual framework, including geographical disaggregation of land within the United States, improving the dynamics of the forestry sector, valuing carbon in forests, and land requirements for biofuel crops. Conceptual development is done within a single-country, steady-state version of AgLU. Land use is simulated with carbon prices from zero to $200 per t-C, with forests, biofuels, and food crops competing simultaneously for land. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:2606&r=agr |
| By: | Eickhout, Bas; van Meijl, Hans; Tabeau, Andrzej; Stehfest, Elke |
| Abstract: | *Chapter 9 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol. The goal of this Chapter is to study the complex interaction between agriculture, economic growth and the environment, given future uncertainties. We combine economic concepts and biophysical constraints in one consistent modeling framework to be able to quantify and analyze the long-term socio-economic and environmental consequences of different scenarios. Here, we present the innovative methodology of coupling an economic and a biophysical model to combine state of the art knowledge from economic and biophysical sources. First, a comprehensive representation of the agricultural and land markets is required in the economic model. Therefore we included a land demand structure to reflect the degree of substitutability of types of land-use types and we included a land supply curve to include the process of land conversion and land abandonment. Secondly, the adapted economic model (LEITAP) is linked to the biophysical-based integrated assessment model IMAGE allowing to feed back spatially and temporarily varying land productivity to the economic framework. Thirdly, the land supply curves in the economic model are parameterized by using the heterogeneous information of land productivity from IMAGE. This link between an economic and biophysical model benefits from the strengths of both models. The economic model captures features of the global food market, including relations between world regions, whereas the bio-physical model adds geographical explicit information on crop growth within each world region. An illustrative baseline analyses shows the environmental consequences of the default baseline and a sensitivity analyses is performed with regard to the land supply curve. Results indicate that economic and environmental consequences are very dependent on whether a country is land scarce or land abundant. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:2608&r=agr |
| By: | Philip Verwimp |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the agricultural policy of the Habyarimana regime, which ruled Rwanda from 1973 to 1994. Econometric analysis of rural household survey data is used to investigate the effects of the 1989 crop failure in southern Rwanda on children’s health status. The paper shows that children in southern Rwanda are chronically malnourished, more then in other prefectures of Rwanda. It is shown that the 1989 crop failure developed into famine and the causes of this development are investigated. It turns out that the Habyarimana regime did not respond to early warnings of famine conditions and pretend it did not know what was going on. The relationship between this non-response to famine, agricultural policy in general and the 1994 genocide is demonstrated. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, famine, survey research, Rwanda |
| JEL: | I12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces0207&r=agr |
| By: | Ellen Moons; Bert Saveyn; Stef Proost; Martin Hermy |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the optimal location of new forests in a suburban region under area constraints. The GIS-based methodology takes into account use benefits such as timber, hunting, carbon sequestration and recreation, non-use benefits (both bequest and existence values), opportunity costs of converting agricultural land, as well as planting and management costs of the new forest. The recreation benefits of new forest sites are estimated using function transfer techniques. We show that the net social benefit of the total afforestation project may vary up to a factor 6, depending on the forest sites that are selected. We show that the recreation value of a forest site varies considerably with the available substitutes. |
| Keywords: | Benefit transfer, travel cost analysis, cost-benefit analysis, forest recreation, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) |
| JEL: | Q23 Q24 Q26 R14 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces0612&r=agr |
| By: | Marijke Verpoorten |
| Abstract: | Farmers in developing countries are confronted with imperfect markets. This has an impact on their production activities. When implementing developing projects these market imperfections should be taken into account. This paper is an attempt to discuss the impact of imperfect markets in the context of an irrigation project in village Pata, Senegal. The first section models the production decision of the agricultural household. The second section presents the irrigation project in Pata. The third section tests for the presence of imperfections in the credit and labour markets of Pata. I conclude by discussing the implications for the project. |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces0120&r=agr |
| By: | Monfreda, Chad; Ramankutty, Navin; Hertel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | *Chapter 2 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:2601&r=agr |
| By: | Ronneberger, Kerstin; Berrittella, Maria; Boselle, Francesco; Tol, Richard |
| Abstract: | *Chapter 12 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol. In this paper the global agricultural land use model KLUM is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) GTAP in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implications for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns at a spatially explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness analysis and serve to highlight the potential of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasize the impact and relevance of the coupling; the results of coupled and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:2611&r=agr |
| By: | Daniel Ayalew |
| Abstract: | We apply the set-up of limited commitment model to empirically test the role of informal risk-sharing networks using panel data on informal credit transactions from rural Ethiopia. The empirical estimates provide convincing evidence for the belief that enforcement problem limits the direct role of credit transactions in risk-sharing arrangements between rural households, whether the villages are ethnically homogeneous or not. We also find that households with more land have better access to the informal credit market and access is significantly improved through their participation in small group networks. But the informal credit market and the networks under consideration serve little purpose to the land poor households. These results, therefore, imply that full risk-sharing does not appear to materialize at the village level. |
| Keywords: | Risk-sharing; Limited commitment; Informal credit; Consumption smoothing |
| JEL: | D91 O12 Q12 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces0305&r=agr |
| By: | Lorelei Crisologo Mendoza; Lodewijk Berlage |
| Abstract: | In this paper we derive testable implications of a unitary farm household model and a non-unitary, i.e. bargaining, model. In the unitary household model the impact of spouse specific resources and non-labor income on household decisions should not be different from that of the resources and non-labor income common to the household. In a bargaining model we expect to find a specific impact of spouse specific resources and non-labor income. Our empirical tests are based on a small survey of households in the Cordillera region of Northern Luzon (Philippines). In this region each spouse retains specific rights on her/his inherited land, although within marriage this land is treated as part of the household farm. Inherited land is a truly exogenous variable, which we use as the indicator of bargaining power. We perform probit regressions in which the spouses’ inherited land is a determinant of the probability that a husband or wife participates in the labor market. The statistical results provide some evidence of a specific impact of spouse specific land on labor market participation decisions and therefore cast doubt on the unitary farm household model. They are compatible with a bargaining model of household behavior. |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces0209&r=agr |
| By: | Reilly, John; Paltsev, Sergey |
| Abstract: | *Chapter 8 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol. We describe an approach for incorporating biomass energy production and competition for land into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. We examine multiple scenarios where greenhouse gas emissions are abated or not. The global increase in biomass energy use in a reference scenario (without climate change policy) is about 30 EJ/year by 2050 and about 180 EJ/year by 2100. This deployment is driven primarily by a world oil price that in the year 2100 is over 4.5 times the price in the year 2000. In the scenarios of stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations, the global biomass energy production increases to 50-150 EJ/year by 2050 and 220-250 EJ/year by 2100. The estimated area of land required to produce 180-250 EJ/year is about 1 Gha, which is an equivalent of the current global cultivated area. In the USA we find that under a stringent climate policy biofuels could supply about 55% of USA liquid fuel demand, but if the biofuels were produced domestically the USA would turn from a substantial net exporter of agricultural goods ($20 billion) to a large net importer ($80 billion). The general conclusion is that the scale of energy use in the USA and the world relative to biomass potential is so large that a biofuel industry that was supplying a substantial share of liquid fuel demand would have very significant effects on land use and conventional agricultural markets. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:2607&r=agr |
| By: | Golub, Alla; Hertel, Thomas; Sohngen, Brent |
| Abstract: | *Chapter 10 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol. The goal of this work is to investigate land-use change at the global scale over the long run - particularly in the context of analyzing the fundamental drivers behind land-use related GHG emissions. For this purpose, we identify the most important drivers of supply and demand for land. On the demand side, we begin with a dynamic general equilibrium (GE) model that predicts economic growth in each region of the world, based on exogenous projections of population, skilled and unskilled labor and technical change. Economy-wide growth is, in turn, translated into consumer demand for specific products using an econometrically estimated, international cross-section, demand system that permits us to predict the pattern of future consumer demands across the development spectrum. This is particularly important in the fast-growing, developing countries, where the composition of consumer demand is changing rapidly. These countries also account for an increasing share of global economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. Consumer demand is translated into derived demands for land through a set of sectoral production functions that differentiate the demand for land by Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ). |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:2609&r=agr |
| By: | Sohngen, Brent; Tennity, Colleen; Hnytka, Marc; Meeusen, Karl |
| Abstract: | *Chapter 3 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:2602&r=agr |
| By: | Lee, Huey-Lin; Hertel, Thomas; Rose, Steven; Avetisyan, Misak |
| Abstract: | *Chapter 4 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:2603&r=agr |
| By: | K. SUNDARAM (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, India) |
| Abstract: | Analysing the Unit Record Data from the NSS 55th and 61st Round Employment-Unemployment Surveys, the Organized Sector Workforce in non-agriculture is shown to be larger than the corresponding DGE&T estimates by 16.5 million in 2004-05 and to have increased by 5.4 million between 2000 and 2005 instead of the 1.6 decrease indicated by the corresponding DGE&T estimates. Examining some features of employment contracts of the regular wage/salary workers who account for 88 percent of the organized sector workforce, it is shown that between 14 to 27 million of the 41.5 million workers in organized non-agriculture are perhaps better labeled as Informal Workers who are without access to a set of social security benefits though they are located in the formal sector. Also presented are our estimates of workforce in the unorganized segment of non-agriculture in the country as a whole as also those in urban India who constitute the Urban Informal Sector. An analysis of labour productivity in the organized-unorganized segments of broad industry groups for 1999-2000 and 2004-05 is followed by an examination of differences across the organized-unorganized divide in average daily earnings and in the poverty status of adult workers in non-agricultural activities for 2004-05 |
| Keywords: | Employment in organized sector, Urban Informal Sector, Labour Productivity, Wage Differentials, Poverty status of workers. |
| JEL: | I32 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:165&r=agr |
| By: | Hertel, Thomas; Lee, Huey-Lin; Rose, Steven; Sohngen, Brent |
| Abstract: | *Chapter 6 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:2605&r=agr |
| By: | Stefan Dercon; Bjorn Van Campenhout |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an alternative technique to analyze market integration using price data, linking the cointegration version of Ravallion's dynamic model with the recent switching regression approaches as in Baulch's Parity Bounds Model. The Band- Threshold Autogression (Band-TAR) model allows for dynamic analysis of the adjustment process as well as for trade discontinuities and transaction costs, thereby avoiding some of the unrealistic assumptions of both approaches. We apply the model to the same rice price data on the Philippines as Baulch and find that, contrary to Baulch, the efficient arbitrage conditions are often not satisfied and unexploited profits are common, albeit relatively small. At least on one important trade route, we find evidence of substantial inefficiences. |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces9909&r=agr |
| By: | van Binh T.; Dumont M. |
| Abstract: | In this paper the Vietnamese fresh water fish product market is examined, using time series data from An Giang province in Vietnam, for the period from January 2004 to December 2005. Daily price volatility is analyzed using univariate Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Subsequently, a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) is used to estimate the relationship between tra fish cultured in pond, tra fish cultured in cage, basa fish, tilapia and snakehead fish, and potential substitute products such as chicken, beef and pork. |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ant:wpaper:2008002&r=agr |
| By: | Sohngen, Brent; Golub, Alla; Hertel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | *Chapter 11 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:2610&r=agr |
| By: | Katleen Van Den Broeck |
| Abstract: | In an environment of strongly decreasing banana productivity, we analyse whether an increase in the average productivity of a reference group a farmer belongs to, has a positive effect on that individual farmer’s harvest. The increase in average productivity is supposedly caused by the adoption of productivity enhancing techniques. So we measure the externalities of a productivity increase in one farmer’s banana field. For our analysis we have data on three social groups, namely kinship members, neighbours and social insurance group members. We find the strongest social effects within kinship related groups. We do find exogenous social effects between neighbours: there is a positive effect of neighbours’ education level. But only within kinship related groups we find the true endogenous effects that produce the social multiplier in banana productivity. |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces0312&r=agr |
| By: | Jozef Konings; Filip Roodhooft |
| Abstract: | E-business offers buyers and sellers a new form of communication and provides an opportunity to create new marketplaces. Theoretical studies suggest in general that the development of e-business results in higher firm performance as a result of lower search and head-to-head comparison costs. However, there are a number of recent theoretical studies, which demonstrate that the growth of e-commerce may lead to monopolistic pricing behaviour so that firms engaging in e-commerce need not perform better compared to more traditional enterprises. To date, there exists little empirical evidence on the impact of information technology on economic performance. This paper is the first that uses a large representative data set of Belgian firms to study empirically the impact of e-business on corporate performance. Our main conclusions can be summarised as follows: (1) The penetration of the Internet in Belgian firms is high, however, the use of e-business is still limited. (2) It is especially the large firms that engage in e-business and mostly in e-procurement. (3) E-business has no effect on total factor productivity in small firms, however, we find positive effects on performance of e-business in large firms. |
| Keywords: | new economy, internet, firm performance, e-procurement, e-business |
| JEL: | D0 L0 O3 M0 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces0026&r=agr |