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on Agricultural Economics |
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Issue of 2007‒12‒01
twenty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Narrod, Clare; Roy, Devesh; Okello, Julius; Avendaño, Belem; Rich, Karl |
| Abstract: | "Many developing countries have moved into the production of non-traditional agricultural products to diversify their exports and increase foreign currency earnings. Accessing developed country markets and urban domestic markets requires meeting the food safety requirements due to several demand and supply side factors. Food retailers have developed protocols relating to pesticide residues, field and packinghouse operations, and traceability. In this changing scenario where food safety requirements are getting increasingly stringent, there are worries regarding the livelihood of the poor since companies that establish production centers in LDCs might exclude them. Poor producers face problems of how to produce safe food, be recognized as producing safe food, identify cost-effective technologies for reducing risk, and be competitive with larger producers with advantage of economies of scale in compliance with food safety requirements. In enabling the smallholders to remain competitive in such a system, new institutional arrangements are required. In particular, public-private partnerships can play a key role in creating farm to fork linkages that can satisfy the market demands for food safety while retaining smallholders in the supply chain. Furthermore, organized producer groups monitoring their own food safety requirements through collective action often become attractive to buyers who are looking for ways to ensure traceability and reduce transaction costs. This paper compares how small producers of different fruit and vegetable products in different countries have coped with increased demands for food safety from their main export markets. These commodities are Kenyan green beans, Mexican cantaloupes, and Indian grapes." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Food safety, Supply chain management, Public-private partnerships, Collective action, Public and private standards, Traceability, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:70&r=agr |
| By: | Kruijssen, Froukje; Keizer, Menno; Giuliani, Alessandra |
| Abstract: | "The role of well-functioning markets for development is now widely recognized, however the challenge remains to make these markets benefit the poor and the environment. Increasing attention is being given to the potential role markets can play for agrobiodiversity conservation through product diversification and increasing competitiveness in niche and novelty markets. Bioversity International has undertaken several studies that explore the use of market-based approaches to on-farm agrobiodiversity management and livelihood improvement. Case studies have been developed on a range of species, varieties and derived products, including underutilized species and commodities in several regions of the world. This paper explores how the theory of collective action can provide a more synthetic understanding of how market chains operate and how changes in the market chain and market institutions can permit a more equitable distribution of welfare benefits. The case studies illustrate the need for improved trust, a mutual understanding of each actor's involvement and the need for an agreed process of collective action that involves a high level of community participation to achieve an improved market chain organization benefiting the poor. The cases differ in their degree of collective action, the level of market organization and the ways in which handling, processing, and innovative marketing add value to the agrobiodiversity products. Comparative analysis of these cases identified a range of options and situations in which market development can support agrobiodiversity conservation and livelihoods. Bringing together these experiences will also help to identify the situations in which a collective approach can maximize the capturing of market benefits for smallholders. Trade-offs between income generation, livelihood security, and agrobiodiversity conservation should be further examined in order to find solutions that support sustainable development of poor communities that manage agricultural biodiversity." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Agricultural biodiversity, Market chain, Market access, Livelihoods, Collective action, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:71&r=agr |
| By: | Cheryl Davie (Western Centre for Economic Research, School of Business, University of Alberta); Michele Veeman (Western Centre for Economic Research, School of Business, University of Alberta) |
| Abstract: | The emergence of China as one of the world’s largest potential markets has led to this nation becoming the focus of increasing attention for economists, marketers and politicians. Reflecting anticipations of China’s expected role as the world’s future largest market for food, this paper focuses on the identification of opportunities and constraints to Alberta’s expansion of agricultural-based exports to China. The analysis is based on: collection and assessment of data relating to China’s importation of these agri-food products during the five year period from 2001 to 2005; analysis based on export values and market shares of Alberta and major competitors; overviews of some relevant literature; and insights from interviews with a small number of selected, knowledgeable North American exporters. |
| Keywords: | Farm produce--Alberta--Marketing, Produce trade--Alberta, Alberta--Commerce--China, China--Commerce--Alberta |
| JEL: | Q17 |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alb:series:1102&r=agr |
| By: | Gruere, Guillaume P.; Nagarajan, Latha; King, E.D.I. Oliver |
| Abstract: | "Minor millets are examples of underutilized plant species, being locally important but rarely traded internationally with an unexploited economic potential. In the Kolli hills of Tamil Nadu, India, a genetically diverse pool of minor millet varieties are grown by the tribal farming communities to meet their subsistence food needs. Most of these minor crops were not traded outside the farming community. Despite a consumption preference among the farming communities for minor millets, in the recent past the acreage under minor millet crops have declined considerably due to the availability of substitute cash crops. As a response, the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) based in Chennai has led targeted conservation cum commercialization intervention programs over the last 7-9 years in the Kolli Hills. In this paper we provide a first evaluation of the success of marketing development for minor millets in the Kolli Hills with a specific focus on collective action and group initiatives undertaken by the women and men self-help groups organized by the concerned non-governmental organization. We analyze the key collective actions that are taking place in the minor millet marketing chain through a series of field visits and focus group discussions with the stakeholders involved. We then compare the role of collective action in this new market with the case of marketing chains for cassava and organic pineapples, two cash crops with an expanding production in Kolli Hills. Our analysis shows the critical role of collective action and group initiative as a necessary but not sufficient condition for the successful commercialization of underutilized plant species for the benefit of the poor and the conservation of agrobiodiversity." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Collective action, Underutilized species, Agricultural marketing, Agrobiodiversity, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:69&r=agr |
| By: | Garming, Hildegard; Waibel, Hermann |
| Abstract: | This study presents an economic valuation of health risks of pesticides among Nicaraguan vegetable farmers. A comprehensive valuation of market and non-market value components of human health is established through farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for low toxicity pesticides. Results show, that farmers are willing to spend about 28% of current pesticide expenditure for avoiding health risks. The validity of results is established in scope tests and a two-step regression model. WTP depends on farmers’ experience with poisoning, income variables and pesticide exposure. The results can help in targeting of rural health policies and the design of programmes aiming to reduce negative effects of pesticides. |
| Keywords: | Health risks of pesticides, Contingent Valuation, Nicaragua |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec07:6530&r=agr |
| By: | Sarris, Alexander; Hoffmann, Vivian; Christiaensen, Luc |
| Abstract: | Studies of risk and its consequences tend to focus on one risk factor, such as a drought or an economic crisis. Yet 2003 household surveys in rural Kilimanjaro and Ruvuma, two cash-crop-growing regions in Tanzania that experienced a precipitous coffee price decline around the turn of the millennium, identified health and drought shocks as well as commodity price declines as major risk factors, suggesting the need for a comprehensive approach to analyzing household vulnerability. In fact, most coffee growers, except the smaller ones in Kilimanjaro, weathered the coffee price declines rather well, at least to the point of not being worse off than non-coffee growers. Conversely, improving health conditions and reducing the effect of droughts emerge as critical to reduce vulnerability. One-third of the rural households in Kilimanjaro experienced a drought or health shocks, resulting in an estimated 8 percent welfare loss on average, after using savings and aid. Rainfall is more reliable in Ruvuma, and drought there did not affect welfare. Surprisingly, neither did health shocks, plausibly because of lower medical expenditures given limited health care provisions. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring & Evaluation,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Access to Finance,Rural Poverty Reduction, |
| Date: | 2007–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4406&r=agr |
| By: | Sirieix, L.; Grolleau, G.; Schaer, B. |
| Abstract: | Previous research has extensively studied environmental implications of conventional and globalized food supply chain. Local food supply chains are supposed to reduce the environmental impacts of "food miles", the distance that foodstuff travels between the production location and the consumption marketplace. However, if researchers, environmental decision-makers and activists are convinced of the importance of 'food miles', there is a lack of understanding about whether and how end consumers perceive food miles. This paper therefore fills this gap by investigating the perceptions of food miles by French consumers. The first section explores the different types of distances between food and consumers. The second section presents the results of a qualitative study conducted in France. Two sessions of focus groups were held to better understand consumers' perceptions of food miles. Results show that most consumers are not aware of food miles. Focus groups were followed by individual interviews with the particular group of local organic food consumers, supposed to be more environmentally concerned than others. Again, results show that most consumers buy and consume local food for other reasons than reducing food miles. The third section deals with the reasons why consumers do not seem concerned by food miles, and discusses the concepts of "bliss ignorance", perceived efficiency, and social dilemmas. ...French Abstract : Les études sur les conséquences de la globalisation des filières agro-alimentaires sur l'environnement se multiplient, et les réseaux alternatifs locaux ayant pour but de réduire les intermédiaires entre les producteurs et les consommateurs sont présentés comme permettant un retour à une agriculture et un système de consommation durables. Plus précisément ces réseaux ont, entre autres, pour but de réduire l'impact environnemental des "food miles", ou distance parcourue par les produits alimentaires entre le lieu de production et les lieux de consommation. Ce concept de "food miles" est utilisé comme un indicateur de développement durable et de plus en plus comme un outil de communication à destination des consommateurs. Cependant, si les chercheurs, décideurs ou activistes dans le domaine de l'environnement semblent convaincus de l'importance des "food miles", aucune étude n'a été menée afin de savoir si et comment les consommateurs perçoivent les "food miles" et sont susceptibles d'en tenir compte dans leur processus de choix des produits. C'est donc l'objet de cet article, qui s'attache à mettre en évidence les perceptions des food miles par les consommateurs en France grâce à une étude qualitative. La première partie présente les différents types de distance perçue entre les consommateurs et les produits alimentaires. Cette distance perçue peut favoriser un certain désintérêt de la part des consommateurs vis à vis des produits alimentaires et de la façon dont ils sont produits ; à l'opposé elle peut être à l'origine de préoccupations croissantes -environnementales, sociales ou plus individuelles telles que les préoccupations santé- et expliquer le besoin de re-créer des liens perdus avec les produits et les producteurs. |
| Keywords: | FOOD MILES; ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN; FOOD CONSUMPTION; QUALITATIVE STUDY |
| JEL: | D1 D8 M31 Q01 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umr:wpaper:200703&r=agr |
| By: | Devaux, André; Velasco, Claudio; López, Gastón; Bernet, Thomas; Ordinola, Miguel; Pico, Hernán; Thiele, Graham; Horton, Douglas E. |
| Abstract: | "The Andean highlands are home to some of the poorest rural households in South America. Native potato varieties and local knowledge for their cultivation and use are unique resources possessed by farmers in these areas. As the forces of globalization and market integration penetrate the Andes, they present both challenges and opportunities for farmers there. This paper reports on how the Papa Andina Regional Initiative is promoting the use of collective action to reduce poverty in the Andes, by developing market niches and adding value to potatoes, particularly the native potatoes grown by poor farmers. Since 1998, Papa Andina has worked with partners in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru to stimulate pro-poor innovation within market chains for potato-based products. Market chain actors (including small-scale potato producers, traders, and processors), researchers, and other service providers have engaged in innovation processes via two principal tools for facilitating collective action: the Participatory Market Chain Approach (PMCA) and Stakeholder Platforms. The PMCA fosters commercial, technological, and institutional innovation through a structured process that builds interest, trust, and collaboration among participants. Stakeholder Platforms provide a space for potato producers, other market chain actors, and service providers to come together to identify their common interests, share knowledge, and develop joint activities. The PMCA and Stakeholder Platforms have empowered Andean potato farmers by expanding their knowledge of markets, market agents, and business opportunities. Social networks built up among producers, market agents, and service providers have stimulated commercial innovation, which in turn has stimulated technical and institutional innovation. These innovations have allowed small farmers to market their potatoes on more favorable terms and other market chain actors to increase their incomes. This paper describes experiences with collective action in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru, via the PMCA and Stakeholder Platforms. Based on these experiences, a number of lessons are formulated for using collective action to stimulate innovation, market access, and poverty reduction in other settings." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Collective action, Potato, Participatory methods, Innovation, stakeholders, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:68&r=agr |
| By: | Lay, Jann; M'Mukaria, George Michuki; Mahmoud, Toman Omar |
| Abstract: | Diversification into non-agricultural activities in rural areas can be broadly classified as either survival-led or opportunity-led. The existence of these two types of non-agricultural activities implies a U-shaped relationship between the share of income derived from non-agricultural activities and household wealth as well as total household income. Survival-led engagement in non-agricultural activities would be inequality-decreasing through increasing the incomes of the poorer parts of the population and would reduce poverty. Opportunity-led diversification, by contrast, would increase inequality and have a minor effect on poverty, as it tends to be confined to non-poor households. Using data from a household survey conducted by ourselves in Western Kenya, we find the overall share of non-agricultural income in this very poor region to be important, but below the sub-Saharan African average. Multivariate analyses confirm the existence of both survival-led and opportunity-led diversification. Yet, the poverty and inequality implications of the differently motivated diversification strategies differ somewhat from our expectations. As expected, we find high-return activities to be confined to richer households, while both rich and poor households are engaged in low-return activities. Very poor households even appear to be excluded from the latter. Simple simulation exercises illustrate the inequality-increasing and very limited poverty effects of increases in high-return income, whereas increased low-return income shows substantial poverty reduction leverage. Our findings indicate that rural households do not only face asset constraints, but also very limited or relatively risky high-return opportunities outside agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Income diversification, non-agricultural activities, inequality, poverty, sub-Saharan Africa, Kenya |
| JEL: | I31 O17 Q12 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec07:6543&r=agr |
| By: | Kristin E. Davis; Martha Negash |
| Abstract: | "TA mixed-methods, multiple-stage approach was used to obtain data on how gender and wealth affected participation in community groups in Meru, Kenya, and how men and women farmers obtain and diffuse agricultural information. Research techniques included participant observation, documentary analysis, semi-structured interviews, social mapping, group timelines, and structured questionnaires. Dairy-goat farmer groups were interviewed for the study. Qualitative data provided baseline information, and helped in the formulation of research questions. Quantitative data were analyzed using contingency tables, descriptive statistics, correlations, tests of significance, and regression. Factors that affected participation in different types of groups included household composition, age, and gender. Women made up 59 percent of the dairy-goat group (DGG) members, with the DGG project encouraging women's participation. Women made up 76 percent of DGG treasurer positions; 43 percent of secretary positions, and 30 percent of chairperson positions. Gender also influenced participation in clan groups, water groups, and merry-go-round (savings and loans) groups. Wealth did not appear to have a significant effect on participation in community groups. Extension was the most important information source for both men and women farmers. However, church and indigenous knowledge (passed on from parents) seemed more important to women. Both men and women mentioned other farmers, groups, and “baraza” (public meetings used to make announcements and diffuse information) as important information sources, but they rated them at different levels of importance. Men were diffusing information to greater numbers of people than women, although men and women diffused to similar sources. This study shows that because men and women traditionally participate in different types of groups and receive agricultural information from different sources, development agencies must target different types of groups and institutions to reach men, women, or poor farmers. Mechanisms should be developed to include women, the poor, and other targeted groups in community associations that provide market and other income-earning opportunities.." Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Gender, Collective action, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:65&r=agr |
| By: | Micevska, Maja; Rahut, Dil Bahadur |
| Abstract: | Nonfarm activities generate on average about 60 percent of rural households’ incomes in the eastern Himalayan region of India. This paper analyzes the determinants of participation in nonfarm activities and of nonfarm incomes across rural households. We present and explore an analytical framework that yields different activity choices as optimal solutions to a simple utility maximization problem. A unique data set collected in the eastern Himalayas allows us to closely examine the implications of the analytical framework. We conduct an empirical inquiry that reveals that education plays a major role in accessing more remunerative nonfarm employment. Other household assets and characteristics such as land, social status, geographical location, and credit access also play a role. |
| Keywords: | Nonfarm employment, Rural households, Incomes, Education, India |
| JEL: | O15 O18 Q12 R11 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec07:6545&r=agr |
| By: | Dutilly-Diane, Celine; McCarthy, Nancy; Turkelboom, Francis; Bruggeman, Adriana; Tiedemann, James; Street, Kenneth; Serra, Gianluca |
| Abstract: | "Although several institutional and management approaches that address the degradation of the rangelands have been tested in the dry areas of Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA), impact has been limited. Nonetheless, the development of National Action Plans to combat desertification highlights the interest of governments to tackle this issue. Payment for Environmental Services (PES) may be a viable policy option, though, to date, most PES programs have focused on the management of different resources (forests, watersheds). The purpose of this paper is to examine whether PES could be a viable option to promote sustainable rangelands management in the dry rangelands of CWANA. Specifically, it focuses on the scientific gaps and knowledge related to the local and global environmental services produced by rangelands and addresses questions related to the beneficiaries of these services. Institutional conditions necessary for the implementation of such schemes are discussed." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Environmental services, Environmental management, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:62&r=agr |
| By: | Richard Pedde (School of Business, University of Alberta) |
| Abstract: | The paper is organized as follows. A brief historical overview of events leading up to the Gray Report is followed by a more detailed description of the performance measurement process. The third section describes the experience of US farmers in getting good prices. The fourth section places "outperformance" into an appropriate context by discussing the economic concept of "market efficiency". Then our benchmarking results are presented for the various types of grain. A short summary concludes the paper. |
| Keywords: | Canadian Wheat Board--Evaluation, Grain--Canada--Marketing, Grain--Prices--Canada, Grain trade--Canada. |
| JEL: | Q13 |
| Date: | 2007–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alb:series:1098&r=agr |
| By: | Garhy Hufabeur (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Costantino Poschedda (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | The Doha Development Round of multilateral trade negotiations (often referred as the DDR) came to a halt in July 2006. This break followed several unsuccessful attempts to agree on modalities for reducing agricultural subsidies and protection. At Davos, in January 2007, world leaders pledged to resurrect the DDR talks and reach a successful agreement. Yet, in February 2007, the outcome remains in doubt. It seems most unlikely that a robust DDR agreement will be concluded – even though, with much effort, a shallow deal is still in sight. In this brief, we start with a short overview of the world trading system since the Second World War, emphasizing the contribution that trade liberalization makes to world growth. Next we summarize the causes of the DDR breakdown. This is followed by an examination of three different scenarios for the future of the world trading system, highlighting risks and opportunities associated with each. We conclude with bold predictions. |
| Keywords: | International Trade, Free Trade, Doha Development Agenda, |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alb:series:1101&r=agr |
| By: | Yvan Decreux; Hugo Valin |
| Abstract: | MIRAGE is a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model, devoted to trade policy analysis. It incorporates imperfect competition, horizontal and vertical product differentiation, and foreign direct investment, in a sequential dynamic set-up where installed capital is assumed to be immobile. Adjustment inertia is linked to capital stock reallocation. MIRAGE draws upon a very detailed measure of trade barriers and of their evolution under given hypotheses, thanks to the MAcMap database. The most recent version, presented in this document, offers improvements in the modelling of agriculture policy and dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium model; trade policy; agriculture; dynamics; foreign direct investment; imperfect competition |
| JEL: | D58 F12 F13 Q17 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-15&r=agr |
| By: | Carraro, Carlo; Sgobbi, Alessandra |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to investigate the usefulness of non-cooperative bargaining theory for the analysis of negotiations on water allocation and management. We explore the impacts of different economic incentives, a stochastic environment and varying individual preferences on players’ strategies and equilibrium outcomes through numerical simulations of a multilateral, multiple issues, non-cooperative bargaining model of water allocation in the Piave River Basin, in the North East of Italy. Players negotiate in an alternating-offer manner over the sharing of water resources (quantity and quality). Exogenous uncertainty over the size of the negotiated amount of water is introduced to capture the fact that water availability is not known with certainty to negotiating players. We construct the players’ objective function with their direct input. We then test the applicability of our multiple players, multi-issues, stochastic framework to a specific water allocation problem and conduct comparative static analyses to assess sources of bargaining power. Finally, we explore the implications of different attitudes and beliefs over water availability. |
| Keywords: | bargaining; non-cooperative game theory; simulation models; uncertainty |
| JEL: | C61 C71 C78 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6585&r=agr |
| By: | Rungruxsirivorn, Ornsiri |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the nature of risk faced by households in Thailand and the strategies that these households adopt to mitigate the adverse effect from income shortfalls. I use a new cross-section dataset that is based on a sample of both urban and rural households. I find that price shock is the most prevalent source of income shortfalls. I also find that the most common risk-mitigating strategy employed by households is to borrow from the Village Fund. Nonetheless, there is a high degree of heterogeneity among households, especially in terms of their sources of income and this plays a key role in determining how a household responds to shocks. Thus, it may not be advisable to design policy based on the paradigm of a representative consumer. |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec07:6550&r=agr |
| By: | Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo (Universitat de València. Dpto. Economía Aplicada II.); Francisco J. Sáez-Fernández (Universidad de Granada. Dpto. Economía Aplicada.); Francisco González-Gómez (Universidad de Granada. Dpto. Economía Aplicada.) |
| Abstract: | Quality is a dimension of water services that has been repeatedly omitted in the study of performance of water utilities. In this paper, we make use of Data Envelopment Analysis techniques (DEA) to compute both conventional quantity-based and quality-adjusted indicators of technical efficiency for a sample of Spanish water utilities. The key assumptions are that a lack of quality (bad quality) can be regarded as a bad output, and the existence of a trade-off between quantity and quality. Our main results indicate that quality matters in measuring technical performance, the difference between conventional and quality-adjusted evaluations representing the opportunity cost of maintaining quality. Averages and distribution functions significantly differ between both assessments of performance, although water utilities do not seem to rank differently. |
| Keywords: | water utilities; quality; Data Envelopment Analysis. |
| JEL: | L20 L95 C61 |
| Date: | 2007–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gra:fegper:04/07&r=agr |
| By: | Bernhard Kurka; Gunther Maier; Sabine Sedlacek |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwsre:sre-disc-2007_03&r=agr |
| By: | Blake Phillips; James Beck Jr.; Trevor Nickel |
| Abstract: | Output from the SELES MPB Landscape Scale Mountain Pine Beetle Model (Fall et al., 2004) was utilized to estimate potential mountain pine beetle spread rates within the Hinton Wood Products Forest Management Area (HFMA) of the Foothills Model Forest. From the SELES model output three spread rate scenarios were hypothesized. Scenario 1 hypothesized a Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) spread rate slower than the rate estimated by the SELES MPB Model. Within Scenario 1, current Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) levels were hypothesized to be adequate to harvest MPB damaged lodgepole pine stands. Scenario 2 hypothesized that spread rates would be consistent with the recommended run from the SELES MPB Model, resulting in attack of the majority of the stands within the HFMA within 29 years. Scenario 3 hypothesized that spread rates would be higher than estimated by the SELES MPB Model, resulting in attack of the majority of lodgepole pine stand in the HFMA in 20 years (Scenario 3.1) or 10 years (Scenario 3.2). The even flow harvest rates required to utilize commercially viable stands attacked by MPB were determined (Surge Period). The modeling program Forest Muncher was utilized to estimate the decrease in AAC which could result from succession / salvage harvest of the majority of lodgepole pine stands within the HFMA within each scenario (Post Surge Period). Based on these AAC estimates, the potential economic impact of MPB attack influenced AAC changes was examined utilizing output from the Computable General Equilibrium Framework (CGE) Model developed by Mike Patriquin and Bill White of the Canadian Forest Service (Patriquin et al., 2005). Scenario 1 had a nearly inappreciable impact on the economic indicators for the forest industry or the total economy in the Foothills Model Forest Area. Within Scenario 2, forest industry revenue, royalties, labour income, and employment were estimated to increase by 40 – 50% during the Surge Period and decrease by 4.7– 6.0% in the Post Surge Period. Within Scenarios 3.1 and 3.2 forestry revenue, royalties, labour income and employment increases ranged from 70 – 90% for Scenario 3.1 and ranged from 160 – 210% for Scenario 3.2 during the Surge Period. Revenue, royalties, labour income and employment in the forest industry were estimated to decrease by 6 – 9% within the Post Surge Periods of Scenarios 3.1 and 3.2. Economic, forest industry capacity, social and environmental factors which may limit the feasibility of large scale salvage of mountain pine beetle damaged stands are discussed within the report. |
| Keywords: | Mountain pine beetle--Alberta--Case studies, Mountain pine beetle--Economic aspects--Alberta--Case studies, Forest management--Alberta--Case studies, Foothills Model Forest |
| JEL: | Q57 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alb:series:1100&r=agr |
| By: | Wick, Katharina |
| Abstract: | We present a Stackelberg model of conflict, in which contestants have limited endowments to be put in two separate sectors, thus incorporating salient features of many conflicts. The model is applied to the case of conflict over natural resources. Consistent with amounting empirical evidence regarding a so-called "resource curse", we find that the relation between conflict intensity and resource rents is non-monotonous, and that the economy's income growth rate may be negatively affected by resource abundance. |
| Keywords: | Resource curse, exhaustible resources, civil war, economic performance and resources |
| JEL: | D74 O13 Q32 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gdec07:6557&r=agr |